JP6329497B2 - Pipeline renewal plan planning support system and pipe renewal plan planning support method - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a pipeline renewal plan planning support system and a pipeline renewal plan planning support method, and specifically supports the planning of a high-precision pipeline renewal plan that minimizes the life cycle cost of the pipeline. It relates to the technology that enables.

  Various pipes such as water distribution pipes constituting waterworks and the like are likely to have problems such as frequent occurrence of water leakage accidents and deterioration of water quality of the water to be distributed with aging. For this reason, it is desirable to renew the pipe at an appropriate time. When such a tube is renewed, it is necessary to secure resources such as a budget and personnel, and therefore, a renewal plan is prepared by the management organization.

  For example, conventional technologies related to the planning of pipeline renewal plans include, for example, the above-mentioned leakage accident rate by distribution pipe attribute using the data on the number of leakage accidents by distribution pipe attribute (by pipeline type, by diameter, by service life, etc.) Establish a prediction model (unit length, number of accidents per unit year), and use statistical data on accident costs to calculate various costs per incident (leakage costs, repair costs, water outage compensation costs, inundation compensation costs, etc.) ), A life cycle cost curve of the pipeline is created from the above-described prediction model and cost, and the technology (see Non-Patent Document 1) that presents the cost and the minimum pipeline usage year as the optimum update time, etc. Proposed.

Report on Pipeline Technology for Sustainable Water Services (e-Pipe Project) (March 2011), Water Technology Research Center Foundation

  According to the prior art, the effect of improving the efficiency of the pipeline renewal plan can be expected. However, instead of using the actual accident information of the buried pipeline itself and the actual cost information for responding to the accident, the relevant pipeline is calculated using the average accident rate curve between each pipeline and the cost derived from the hypothetical model. Since this is a technique for calculating the life cycle cost of a road, the calculated life cycle cost is difficult to say with high accuracy. In fact, even if the pipes have the same pipe type, caliber, age, etc., the frequency of accidents often varies greatly, for example, if the installation area is different. Obviously, if the accident information is averaged and used, the accuracy of the calculated values obtained by various calculations cannot be expected.

  Therefore, the validity of the pipeline renewal timing specified based on the life cycle cost including errors is uncertain, and there is a problem that the capital investment for the pipeline cannot be minimized.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above points, and an object of the present invention is to provide a technology capable of supporting the creation of a pipeline renewal plan with good accuracy that minimizes the life cycle cost of the pipeline. It is in.

The pipeline renewal plan planning support system of the present invention that solves the above problems includes a storage device that stores information on pipeline attributes, and the actual cost of costs associated with a water leakage accident that occurred during a predetermined period, and a predetermined attribute. The information on the actual cost of the corresponding pipe is extracted from the storage device, and the life cycle cost at least for a predetermined period is calculated by a predetermined algorithm based on the information on the actual actual cost, and the life cycle cost is minimized. It is characterized by comprising an arithmetic unit that identifies the update time of the water distribution pipe and outputs information of the specified update time to the output device.

  In addition, the pipeline update plan planning support method of the present invention is an information processing apparatus including a storage device that stores information on pipeline attributes and the actual cost of response to a water leakage accident that occurred during a predetermined period. The information on the corresponding cost performance is extracted from the storage device with respect to the pipeline with the predetermined attribute, the life cycle cost at least for a predetermined period is calculated by a predetermined algorithm based on the information on the corresponding cost performance, and the life cycle cost is minimized. It is characterized in that the update time of the distribution pipe is determined and information on the specified update time is output to the output device.

  ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, the drafting assistance of the pipeline update plan with sufficient accuracy which minimizes the life cycle cost of a pipeline is attained.

It is a figure which shows the structural example of the pipeline update plan planning assistance system of this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of an area division of the whole water distribution pipe network in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the pipe line information database in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example 1 of a table which the cost information database of this embodiment contains. It is a figure which shows the example 2 of a table which the cost information database of this embodiment contains. It is a flowchart which shows the procedure example 1 of the pipeline update plan planning assistance method in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of the calculation result table (The introduction cost of a pipe line, a running cost, the calculated value of LCC) in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of the calculation result graph (pipe introduction cost, running cost, LCC calculation value graph) in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the table which stored the cumulative water leakage accident number according to the service years of the pipe line in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the graph of the actual value and estimated value of the cumulative number of accidents of the pipe line in this embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows the procedure example 2 of the pipeline update plan planning assistance method in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example 3 of a table which the cost information database in this embodiment contains. It is a figure which shows the example of the calculation result graph (graph of the introduction value of a pipe line, running cost, the actual value of LCC, and a predicted value) in this embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows the procedure example 3 of the pipeline update plan planning assistance method in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of a table of the water leakage accident performance in this embodiment (The table which stored the number of accidents of the next 4 years of the pipeline with the same attribute and different service years). It is a figure which shows the example of the cumulative accident number curve of the pipe line in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the other structural example of the pipeline update plan planning assistance system in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of the accident information table which the accident information database in this embodiment contains. It is a figure which shows Example 1 of the accident rate table stored in the calculation result database in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows Example 2 of the accident rate table stored in the calculation result database in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows Example 1 of the average accident rate table stored in the calculation result database in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the graph of the average accident rate in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the graph of the prediction accident rate in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows Example 2 of the average accident rate table stored in the calculation result database in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows Example 1 of the water leak ratio stored in the calculation result database in this embodiment, and a water leak accident number table. It is a figure which shows Example 2 of the water leak ratio stored in the calculation result database in this embodiment, and a water leak accident number table. It is a figure which shows the example of the LCC table stored in the calculation result database in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of the flowchart of the program which calculates the life cycle cost in this embodiment.

--- First Embodiment ---
Hereinafter, a first embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to FIGS. FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of a pipeline update plan planning support system 100 according to the first embodiment. A pipeline update plan planning support system 100 shown in FIG. 1 is a computer system that enables planning support for a pipeline update plan with good accuracy that minimizes the life cycle cost of the pipeline.

  The hardware configuration of the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 is as follows. The pipeline update plan planning support system 100 includes a storage device 101 configured with an appropriate nonvolatile storage element such as a hard disk drive, a memory 103 configured with a volatile storage element such as a RAM, and a program 102 held in the storage device 101. A calculation start instruction and designation of output contents from an arithmetic unit 104 such as a CPU that performs various determinations, computations and control processes, and performs control and overall processing of the device itself by reading it into the memory 103 and executing it. For example, an input device 105 that accepts various key inputs and voice inputs (or may be a network interface that fetches data from an external network), and an output device 106 such as a display that displays processing data. In the storage device 101, a program 102 for implementing functions necessary for the pipeline update plan planning support system 100 of the present embodiment, pipeline attribute information (stored information in the pipeline information database 125), and Cost information (a part of the storage information of the cost information database 126) is stored at least.

  The pipeline information database 125 stored in the storage device 101 is a database in which all the water distribution pipelines are classified according to attributes (embedded area, diameter, pipe type, service years) and stored together with related information. In the first embodiment, a water distribution network 22 divided into areas A to I as illustrated in FIG. 2 is assumed. Such a water distribution pipe network 22 is formed by connecting pipes 23 having predetermined attributes (tube type, diameter, burial years, etc.) to each other in areas A to I, and each of them is several hundred meters to several tens of kilometers. It has a long pipe length.

  As illustrated in FIG. 3, the pipeline information database 125 corresponding to such a situation is a pipeline No. Is a set of records in which attribute data (burial area, diameter, pipe type, pipe length, introduction cost, years of service, inundation damage level) associated with the water distribution pipe is associated.

In the example of FIG. 3, “DIP” represents a ductile cast iron pipe and “VP” represents a vinyl pipe. The introduction cost is the cost when the target pipeline is laid (the sum of the cost of the pipeline itself and the cost of laying work). The service life is set in increments of 4 years such as 0 to 4 years, 4 to 8 years, 8 to 12 years,. This step is set by the user with a length of about 1 to 8 years. The longer the ticking years, the longer the length of the pipeline, so the number of water leakage accidents in the target pipeline increases, and it is easy to detect the water leakage accident. Of the inundation damage levels, “1” indicates a pipeline that may cause a large inundation damage at the time of a water leakage accident, and “0” indicates a pipeline that does not. This inundation damage level is not a binary value of “0” and “1”, but “0”: no assumption of damage occurrence, “1”: assumption of occurrence of small-scale damage, “2” in ascending order of damage occurrence probability. ": It may be set in three or more stages, such as the assumption of occurrence of large-scale damage.

  Next, a configuration example of the cost information database 126 will be described. FIG. 4 shows an example of information stored in the cost information database 126 in the present embodiment. In the example of FIG. This shows the history of accident response costs in the pipeline. The cost information database 126 includes an accident occurrence year from the time when the corresponding pipe is laid in a predetermined area and a service year at the time of the accident, a repair cost actual value, a water shutoff cost actual value, an inundation cost calculated value, and a water leakage cost. It is a collection of records in which the calculated value and the cumulative number of accidents are associated.

  Of these, the water leakage cost is calculated by multiplying the total amount of water leaked from the water distribution pipe in the year of the water leakage accident (one year) by the cost and dividing it by the total number of water leakage accidents. It is calculated and stored. The total amount of water leaked from the distribution pipe is obtained by subtracting the total detectable amount of leak from the water supply pipe and the unavoidable amount of leakage (assuming a leakage rate of about 2%) from the total amount of water leaked from the supply and distribution pipe. The cost is calculated by adding fresh water costs. The total detectable leak amount from the water supply pipe is approximated by 0.5 × leakage investigation period (for example, 1 for one year) × annual leak amount per case × annual number of leaks.

  Further, the inundation cost is calculated based on the inundation compensation performance. FIG. 5 shows an example of a table 1261 (including the cost information database 126) that stores information on the inundation compensation performance. The table 1261 is a table that stores the history of the occurrence of past inundation events for all pipelines. , Year of occurrence, area, pipeline No. And it is the aggregate | assembly of the record which matched each value of inundation compensation cost (compensation amount track record). The pipeline renewal planning support system 100 calculates, for example, the total amount of inundation compensation for the past 20 years (a number other than the past 20 years may be adopted) based on this table 1261, and the calculated value is used as the inundation damage level. Dividing by the total number of water leakage accidents that occurred in the pipeline designated as “1” (see FIG. 3) over the past 20 years, the expected inundation cost per accident will be calculated. The value thus obtained is stored in the table of FIG. 4 as the inundation cost calculation value. Note that FIG. 3 is a cost table for No. 3 pipeline. It is assumed that there is no inundation damage because the inundation damage level of pipe 3 is 0. For this reason, the inundation compensation cost of the table of FIG. 4 is zero.

  Then, the function part with which the pipeline update plan planning assistance system 100 of 1st Embodiment is provided is demonstrated. As described above, the function unit described below can be said to be a function implemented by executing the program 102 included in the pipeline update plan planning support system 100, for example.

  The pipeline renewal plan planning support system 100 extracts information on the corresponding cost record for the pipeline having a predetermined attribute from the cost information database 126 of the storage device 101, and at least a predetermined period using a predetermined algorithm based on the corresponding cost record information. The life cycle cost is calculated, the update time of the water distribution pipeline that minimizes the life cycle cost is specified, and the information of the specified update time is output to the output device 106.

In addition, in the storage device 101, the pipeline update plan planning support system 100 stores information on each cost of the pipeline repair cost, the water break compensation cost, the inundation compensation cost, and the water leakage cost as the above-described performance information of the corresponding cost. Storing. In that case, the pipeline renewal plan planning support system 100 extracts each information of the service life and the introduction cost when laying the pipeline from the attribute information of the pipeline in the calculation of the life cycle cost described above, and the extracted information The amount of the introduction cost per unit year related to the relevant pipeline is calculated based on the cost, and the cost related to the relevant pipeline is calculated based on the information on each cost stored in the cost information database 126 of the storage device 101 and the information on the service life. It has a function of calculating a running cost, which is an amount per unit year related to the sum of accumulated values of the above, and calculating a life cycle cost by adding the introduction cost and the running cost per unit year.

  In addition, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 reads out information from the cost information database 126 (FIG. 5: table 1261) of the storage device 101 regarding the inundation compensation cost when calculating the above-mentioned running cost, and inundates in the past predetermined period. Calculate the total compensation cost, and divide the calculated value by the total number of leak incidents involving inundation compensation in the above-mentioned specified period in the past to calculate the expected inundation compensation cost per leak incident involving inundation compensation. The inundation compensation cost expected value is multiplied by the actual number of accidents in the relevant pipeline at each predetermined time, and a function for calculating the inundation compensation cost of the relevant pipeline at each time in the predetermined period is provided.

  In addition, when calculating the above-mentioned running cost, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 reads information on the leakage cost from the cost information database 126 of the storage device 101, calculates the total leakage cost in the past predetermined period, and calculates the calculation. Divide the value by the total number of water leakage accidents in the past specified period to calculate the unit water leakage cost per water leakage accident. Multiplying the number of cases, it has a function to calculate the water leakage cost of the relevant pipeline at each time of the predetermined period.

  Further, the pipeline renewal plan planning support system 100 performs pipe management based on the actual information on the year of occurrence and the number of occurrences of the water leakage accident, which is stored in the cost information database 126 of the storage device 101 regarding the pipeline with the predetermined attribute described above. Deriving a formula that defines the relationship between the service life of the road and the total number of water leakage accidents up to the service life, calculate the number of water leakage accidents at a predetermined time in the future, and calculate the value of the number of water leakage accidents Calculate the future life cycle cost of a pipeline with a predetermined attribute by using it in the above-mentioned calculation of running cost, specify the future renewal time of the distribution pipeline that minimizes the life cycle cost, and A function of outputting the update time information to the output device 106 is provided.

  In addition, in the cost information database 126 of the storage device 101, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 has the same years of service as the corresponding pipeline when the actual information on the water leakage accident related to the pipeline with the predetermined attribute is not stored. For a plurality of other pipelines, each of which has a history of the number of water leakage accidents occurring between the current time and a specific time, is received from the input device 105 and accumulated in the storage device 101 (FIG. 15: table 1263). Based on the actual number of water leakage accidents obtained for other pipelines, formulas that determine the relationship between the years of service of the relevant other pipelines to the above-mentioned specific period and the total number of water leakage accidents up to that period are derived. Using the mathematical formulas for each period obtained for other pipelines, calculate the number of water leakage accidents at the specified time in the relevant pipeline, and calculate the value of the number of water leakage accidents as the running cost. And a function for calculating the life cycle costs of the relevant line by using the calculation.

  Next, the actual procedure of the pipeline update plan planning support method in the first embodiment will be described with reference to the drawings. Various operations corresponding to the pipeline update plan planning support method described below are realized by a program that the pipeline update plan planning support system 100 reads into the memory or the like and executes. And this program is comprised from the code | cord | chord for performing the various operation | movement demonstrated below.

  6 is a flowchart showing a procedure example 1 of the pipeline renewal plan planning support method in the present embodiment, specifically, the life cycle cost of each attribute pipeline (each pipeline No. pipeline). The processing flow of the program which calculates and displays the result of pipe line update necessity judgment is shown. This program corresponds to the LCC actual value calculation / display program 110 shown in the system configuration of FIG.

  A user of the pipeline renewal plan planning support system 100 wishes to calculate a pipeline No. for which an LCC (Life Cycle Cost, hereinafter the same) is desired as a plan for the pipeline renewal plan. Is designated by the input device 105 and processing execution is instructed. In this case, the pipeline renewal plan planning support system 100 has the pipeline No. specified via the input device 105. Is obtained and temporarily stored in the memory 103 (s100). Here, it is assumed that the “No. 3” pipeline in the pipeline information database 125 of FIG. Hereinafter, it is assumed that processing is performed on the pipe line “No. 3”. In step s100, the pipeline update plan planning support system 100 calculates the introduction cost for the pipeline. The introduction cost here is a value obtained by dividing the introduction cost (FIG. 3: 72 million yen) at the time of laying the pipeline by the service years. For example, as shown in the column of introduction cost in the calculation result table 127 of FIG. 7, the introduction cost is “24 million yen” for a service life of 3 years, and “1440,000 yen” for a service life of 50 years. The relevant pipeline is a pipeline buried 50 years ago, and the service life at present is 50 years. Therefore, the pipeline renewal plan planning support system 100 sequentially calculates the introduction cost until the 50th year. The calculation result is stored in the calculation result table 127.

  Next, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 refers to the cost information database 126 in FIG. 4 for the above-mentioned “No. 3” pipeline, and calculates the cumulative repair cost CR (T) at the time of service years T. Calculate (s101). Similarly, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 refers to the cost information database 126 of FIG. 4 for the “No. 3” pipeline, and calculates the cumulative water failure compensation cost CC (T) at the time of service years T. (S102).

  Subsequently, the pipeline update plan planning support system 100 refers to the cost information database 126 of FIG. 4 for the “No. 3” pipeline, and calculates the accumulated inundation compensation cost CS (T) at the time of service years T. (S103). It should be noted that the “No. 3” pipe has a “flood damage level” value of “0” in the pipe information database 125 of FIG. Assuming that no compensation occurs, the inundation compensation cost is always “0”. Accordingly, the accumulated inundation compensation cost CS (T), which is the calculation result in step s103, is also “0”.

  Next, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 refers to the cost information database 126 in FIG. 4 for the “No. 3” pipeline, and calculates the accumulated water leakage cost CL (T) at the time of service years T. (S104).

  Subsequently, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 includes the cumulative repair cost CR (T), the cumulative water cutoff compensation cost CC (T), the cumulative inundation compensation cost CS (T), and the cumulative water leakage obtained in the above steps s101 to s104. The costs CL (T) are added together, and the combined value is divided by the service years T to calculate the running cost C2 (T) at time T (s105). It can be said that it is a value obtained by dividing the sum of accident response costs required up to the time of service T by the number of years T.

Next, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 adds the introduction cost C1 (T) obtained in step s100 described above and the running cost C2 (T) obtained in step s105 to obtain the life cycle cost LCC (T ) Is calculated (s106). It is the calculation result table 127 illustrated in FIG. 7 that the pipeline update plan planning support system 100 holds the value of each cost obtained by the processing so far. In the example of FIG. 7, the LCC is “72” for the first year of service.
2,000,000 yen, LCC is "36 million yen" for the second year of service, LCC is "24 million yen" for the third year of service, LCC is "244,000 yen" for the 50th year of service, The result is as follows.

  Subsequently, the pipeline update plan planning support system 100 determines whether the pipeline needs to be updated (s107). In this case, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 calculates (LCC (T-5) -LCC (T)) / LCC (T), and if the calculated value is within a predetermined value, the life It is determined that the cycle cost curve is becoming horizontal, that is, it is in the update period, otherwise it is determined that the update is unnecessary. For example, (LCC (T-5) -LCC (T)) / LCC (T) = (268-244) /244=0.09≧0.05, and the life cycle cost curve is becoming horizontal. Instead, it is determined that no update is necessary.

  Finally, the pipeline update planning support system 100 reads out the cost calculation result obtained in the steps so far, that is, the value of the calculation result table 127 from the storage device 101 and displays the graph on the output device 106 (s108). FIG. 8 shows a display example of this graph 800. In the case of the graph 800 illustrated in FIG. 8, it is determined that the LCC is still decreasing at the present time and that updating is not necessary. A planner who is a user of the system and who plans the pipeline update plan can determine whether or not the target pipeline needs to be updated using this graph 800.

--- Second Embodiment ---
Next, a second embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. In the second embodiment, a technique for calculating an LCC up to a certain time in the future and predicting a time when the LCC is minimized will be described. By adopting such technology, it is possible to predict at which point the pipeline should be renewed in the future, which will be useful for formulating future budget plans for those who manage and operate pipelines such as water utilities.

  Here, the concept required in the second embodiment will be described. When the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 refers to the value of the cumulative number of accidents in the cost information database 126 of FIG. 4 for a certain attribute of pipeline, the point of service years T as shown in the table 1262 shown in FIG. The cumulative number of accidents NA (T) can be grasped. Therefore, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 uses this table 1262 to formulate the relationship between the cumulative number of accidents NA and the service years T. In this case, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 assumes, for example, the following function (Equation 1) and sets parameters a and b so that the sum of squares of errors between the calculated value of the cumulative accident number NA and the actual value is minimized. decide.

NA (T) = a · bT (Equation 1)
FIG. 10 is a graph 1000 that shows the actual cumulative number of accidents 1001 in the cost information database 126 and the cumulative number of accidents 1002 estimated by the above-described formula 1. It can be seen that the line segments of both 1001 and 1002 are fitted, and the number of cumulative accidents in the future can be predicted using the above-described equation (1). Note that the program for predicting the cumulative number of accidents is the cumulative accident number prediction model construction program 112 in the pipeline renewal plan planning support system 100 (the same applies hereinafter).

  Subsequently, an actual procedure of the pipeline update plan planning support method in the second embodiment will be described with reference to the drawings. FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing a procedure example 2 of the pipeline update plan planning support method according to the present embodiment. Specifically, the processing flow of the program for calculating the future LCC using the above-described equation 1 is shown. Show. This program corresponds to the LCC predicted value calculation / display program 111 shown in the system configuration of FIG.

In this case, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 calculates the future introduction cost for the pipeline specified by the user by the same method as described above (see the description of step s100 in FIG. 6), and calculates this calculated value. It stores in the cost information database 126 illustrated in FIG. 12 (s200). In the example of FIG. 12, the service life “50 years” is the current time, and the pipeline renewal plan planning support system 100 calculates the introduction cost up to the service life “70 years” thereafter and stores it in the cost information database 126. (The 70th year is specified by the user).

  Next, the pipeline renewal plan planning support system 100 calculates the cumulative number of accidents in the future (from the 51st year to the 70th year) using the above-described number 1 (s201). Further, the pipeline update plan planning support system 100 refers to the past repair cost of the target pipeline in the cost information database 126 of FIG. 4, and calculates the average value CRA (s202).

  Next, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 multiplies the repair cost average value CRA obtained in step s202 described above by the cumulative number of accidents in service years (51 to 70) (obtained in step s201; the same applies hereinafter). The accumulated repair cost for each service life is calculated (s203).

  Subsequently, the pipeline update plan planning support system 100 refers to the past water cutoff compensation cost of the target pipeline in the cost information database 126 of FIG. 4 and calculates an average value (s204). Further, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 multiplies the average value of the water break compensation cost obtained in the above step s204 by the cumulative number of accidents in service years (51 to 70), and accumulates the water break compensation cost in each service year. Is calculated (s205).

  Next, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 calculates the expected value of the inundation compensation cost in the service life of 50 years (current time) by the method (first embodiment) using the above-mentioned inundation compensation performance (s206). It is assumed that this expected value does not change even after 51 years of service. When the value of the flood damage level of the target pipeline in the pipeline information database 125 is “1”, the pipeline update plan planning support system 100 uses the corresponding expected value in the following calculation. On the other hand, when the value of the inundation damage level is “0”, the pipeline update plan planning support system 100 sets the expected value of the inundation compensation cost for the relevant pipeline to “0”.

  Next, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 multiplies the expected value of the inundation compensation cost obtained in step s206 above by the cumulative number of accidents in service years (51 to 70), and accumulates inundation compensation costs in each service year. Is calculated (s207).

  Further, the pipeline renewal plan planning support system 100 calculates the water leakage cost per accident in the latest year (in the case of this embodiment, “50 years of service”) by the above-described method (first embodiment) (s208). ). It is assumed that the cost does not change after 51 years of service.

  Next, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 multiplies the water leakage cost calculated in step s208 described above by the cumulative number of accidents in service years (51 to 70) to calculate the cumulative water leakage cost in each service year (s209). ).

  Subsequently, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 divides the sum of the accumulated repair cost, the accumulated water cutoff compensation cost, the accumulated inundation compensation cost, and the accumulated water leakage cost in the above-mentioned service years (51 to 70) by the service years, The running cost in the service years (51 to 70) is calculated and stored in the calculation result table 1271 illustrated in FIG. 12 (s210).

  Next, the pipeline update plan planning support system 100 adds the introduction cost and the running cost in the calculation result table 1271 of FIG. 12 to calculate an LCC (running cost), and stores this in the table 1271 (s211). ).

  In addition, the pipeline update plan planning support system 100 determines whether or not the corresponding pipeline needs to be updated by the same method as that in step s107 of the first embodiment (s212). By performing the determination of whether or not renewal is necessary in the future, it is possible to specify the time when the LCC reduction rate is equal to or less than a predetermined reference, that is, when the LCC curve becomes flat, as the minimum LCC service years. The minimum service life of the LCC obtained in this way is the time for updating the target pipeline. It is useful for planning the budget required for future pipeline renewal.

  Finally, the pipeline update plan planning support system 100 reads out the cost calculation result obtained in the steps so far, that is, the stored value (introduction cost, running cost, LCC) of the calculation result table 1271 from the storage device 101, and outputs it. A graph is displayed at 106 (s213). FIG. 13 shows a display example of this graph 130. As in the example of the graph 1300 in FIG. 13, by calculating the LCC over the future, it is possible to obtain the service years in which the LCC is minimized. In the case of the graph 1300 illustrated in FIG. 13, the LCC is still in a decreasing trend at the present time, but the LCC is the lowest at the 60th year of service, and the 60th year of service is the expected renewal time. The judgment is shown. The planner of the pipeline update plan, which is a user of the system, can determine whether or not the target pipeline needs to be updated using this graph 1300.

--- Third Embodiment ---
Next, a third embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. In the above-described first and second embodiments, the processing in the case where each data of the accident from the time of pipe burial and the cost required to deal with the accident is accumulated in the storage device 101 is shown. However, accident and cost data may not be accumulated at all for the pipeline.

  In this case, since there is no data on past accidents and response costs of pipes that have already been buried for several years or decades, there is a problem that the LCCs of these pipes cannot be analyzed. In order to cope with this problem, a method for predicting and utilizing the number of accidents in the past and the corresponding cost based on the accidents accumulated from the present time and the corresponding cost data is shown below.

  FIG. 14 is a flowchart showing a procedure example 3 of the pipeline renewal plan planning support method in the present embodiment, and FIG. 15 is a table 1263 of water leakage accident results in the present embodiment (the future of pipelines having the same attributes and different service years) It is a figure which shows the table which stored the number of accidents for 4 years.

In this case, the pipeline update plan planning support system 100 uses the storage device 101 as the cost information of the water leakage accident related to the pipeline with the predetermined attribute (the pipeline of the pipeline No. 3) specified by the user with the input device 105. It is assumed that the information database 126 is searched and the corresponding information is not stored.
Here, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 uses the same attributes (area, pipe type, caliber) as the corresponding pipe (pipe No. 3) and uses different pipes for different service years. A process of identifying in the road information database 125 (s300) and sequentially receiving from the input device 105 the results of the number of water leakage accidents occurring between the current time and the specific time for the other pipes identified here and storing them in the storage device Is continued until the above-mentioned specific time (s301).

  As a result of the process of step s301 described above, as shown in the table 1263 illustrated in FIG. 15, the pipe is embedded in the same area (for example, area A) and has the same diameter and pipe type (for example, diameter of 100 mm, pipe) Species DIP), the number of accidents from the current time to a specific time (4 years after the current time) can be obtained for each service period. In this table 1263, “0th year” represents one year from the current year to one year later, and “first year” represents one year from one year to two years later. In addition, the numerical value “0” in the table 1263 indicates that the number of water leakage accidents in the pipeline of the corresponding service years is 0 in the corresponding year. Numerical values “1” and “2” indicate that there were one and two accidents, respectively.

  Next, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 determines the above-mentioned specific time period from the service years of the corresponding other pipelines based on the actual number of water leakage accidents obtained for the other pipelines of each service year as in the table 1263 described above. A mathematical formula that determines the relationship between the period up to and the total number of water leakage accidents up to that period is derived (s302). The formula deriving method is the same as the method of formulating the relationship between the cumulative number of accidents NA and the service years T shown in the second embodiment.

  Here, using the data on the number of actual accidents shown in FIG. 15, the same area, caliber, and pipe type pipe (in this case, area A, caliber 100 mm, DIP pipe) where the number of accidents was investigated. A specific example of the method for estimating the cumulative number of accidents from the time of burying to the present time will be shown using FIG. FIG. 16 is a diagram illustrating an example of a cumulative accident number curve 1500 for a pipeline in the present embodiment.

  The curve 1501 constituting the cumulative accident number curve 1500 is 4 from the 0th year of the pipeline with the service life of 0 to 4 years (current time when the actual information about the accident was not obtained). Based on the actual number of water leakage accidents up to the year, this corresponds to the mathematical formula calculated by the same method as the derivation method of Equation 1 above. The actual number of water leakage accidents is converted into the cumulative number of accidents per unit length (1 km) using the value of the pipe length of the corresponding pipe in the pipe information database 125. Similarly, the curve 1502 indicates that the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 is based on the accident results from the 0th year to the 4th year of the pipeline having a service life of 4 to 8 years, and the derivation method of the above formula 1 It corresponds to the mathematical formula calculated by the same method. The pipeline renewal planning support system 100 performs the same process for all pipelines of the service years (corresponding pipelines and other pipelines), and obtains a curve of the cumulative number of accidents per unit length. .

  The pipeline renewal planning support system 100 connects, for example, the current accident time from 0 years by connecting the cumulative accident curves indicated by the mathematical formulas for the respective periods obtained in step s302 as shown in FIG. A graph of the cumulative number of accidents per unit pipe length up to (for example, the 50th year) is calculated (s303). In this way, it is possible to derive the curve of cumulative accidents from the burial year of pipes with various years of service to the present by simply acquiring the accident records for a predetermined period (eg 4 years) from the present time to the specified time. .

  Subsequently, since the cumulative number of accidents per unit length has been obtained as described above, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 has the same number of accidents per accident as in the first and second embodiments described above. Accident response costs (repair costs, water outage compensation costs, inundation compensation costs, water leakage costs) are calculated, and the total length per unit length derived in FIG. Multiply the number of accidents and further divide it by the number of years of service to calculate the running cost for the number of years of service (the number of years elapsed since the time of burial) (s304). Further, the pipeline renewal planning support system 100 adds the introduction cost to the running cost value to derive an LCC curve (s305). The processing after the calculation of the life cycle cost is the same as the above steps, s107 to s108, s212 to s213.

The above is an example in which the service life is in increments of 4 years. In this case, it is necessary to monitor the number of accidents for 4 years from the present time. The in-service years may be smaller, 1, 2, or 3 years. In this case, it is sufficient to monitor the number of accidents for 1, 2, and 3 years. However, in the case of one year, the pipeline must be buried every year, and even if it is buried, if the pipeline length is short, the accident may not be monitored, and the calculation accuracy of the accident curve There is a problem that deteriorates. As described above, according to the third embodiment, even if there is no history data of accidents and costs, it is possible to evaluate LCCs by monitoring accidents for a short period of time, and it is possible to search for an optimal pipeline renewal time. is there. Above, we have derived a formula between the cumulative number of accidents per unit length and the number of years elapsed (service years), but we do not derive the formula, but per unit length obtained by dividing the number of detected cumulative accidents by the pipe length. It is also possible to obtain the curve 1500 shown in FIG.

--- Fourth Embodiment ---
Next, a fourth embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. In this 4th Embodiment, although the water supply entity is not complete, it demonstrates the pipe line update method in the case of having some. Also in the third embodiment, if accident data for the past four years is held, an accident rate curve as shown in FIG. 16 can be constructed. By using this, the LCC can be calculated to calculate the optimum update time. In this regard, the third embodiment can also be applied to cases where partial performance data is held. However, in this example, the accident rate curve is calculated when the data for the past four years are ready. On the other hand, in the fourth embodiment, if there is accident history data for the past year, the accident rate curve can be calculated, and further, the number of accident history data used for analysis increases, that is, accidents in various years. The present invention relates to a method for improving the accuracy of calculating an accident rate curve as history data is accumulated.

  In the fourth embodiment, a method for calculating the LCC in consideration of the time value of each cost will be described. It is an effective method for calculating accurate LCC and pipeline renewal timing for entities with large borrowings.

  Moreover, in 4th Embodiment, the amount of water leaks of an individual water leak accident is calculated and recorded by calculation, and the method of calculating a water leak cost based on it is shown. Thereby, the water leak cost calculation accuracy can be improved.

  FIG. 17 is a pipeline update plan planning support system 17000 corresponding to the fourth embodiment. Components having the same numbers as those in FIG. 1 are the same components as those in the system (FIG. 1) corresponding to the first to third embodiments. On the other hand, in the fourth embodiment, the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 estimates the accident rate of the pipeline, calculates the LCC based on the result, and outputs whether the pipeline needs to be updated and the optimum update time. Is.

  This accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 reads information from the pipeline information database 125 that stores pipeline information and the accident information database 1701 that stores the history of water leakage accidents. The update time is calculated, and the result is written in the calculation result database 1702. This calculation result database 1702 stores intermediate calculation results, and this information is also used to calculate the final result, such as LCC, necessity of pipeline update, optimum update time, and the like. The pipeline information stored in the pipeline information database 125 is as already shown in FIG. This information is for the latest year, but it is also assumed that information for each past year is also stored. Due to the removal and replacement of pipes, the pipe length information will differ from year to year.

  On the other hand, the accident information database 1701 stores accident information of each distribution pipe and water supply pipe in several years. An example of accident information relating to a certain water distribution area (see FIG. 2) in a certain year, for example, 2014 is shown in an accident information table 1800 in FIG. Such an accident information table 1800 is managed and stored for each year and area.

  The accident information table 1800 illustrated in FIG. 18 is a table showing accident information in area A and 2014, and the pipeline attribute (pipe type (distribution pipe or water supply pipe) of the pipeline where the accident occurred in 2014 Accident response costs (repair costs, water outage costs, inundation costs) are stored in pairs with the pipe type, diameter, and burial year. In addition, an estimate of the total amount of water leakage caused by the accident from the occurrence of water leakage ("leakage amount" in the figure) is stored. This amount of water leakage is an approximate value calculated from the flow rate x the estimated generation period.

  The accident information database 1701 stores such accident information tables for several years. For example, an accident information table for each year from 2014 to 2005 that goes back 10 years in the past is stored. In the smallest case, for example, an accident information table for a single year for 2014 alone is stored.

  The accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 described above first calculates an accident rate time series for each year and pipeline attribute using the information in the pipeline information database 125 and the information in the accident information database 1701. The pipe line attribute is defined by the pipe type such as VP and DIP and the diameter. The accident rate calculated here is the number of accidents per unit year (1 km) and unit length (1 km) of each attribute.

  The accident rate calculation results described above are shown in the accident rate tables 1900 and 2000 of FIGS. 19 and 20 show the results of calculating the accident rates for the pipeline attributes (tube type VP, caliber 100 mm) in 2014 and 2013, respectively. In FIG. 19 and FIG. 20, the elapsed year “0 to 5” indicates that the elapsed year since the burial is 0 year or more and less than 5 years. The same applies to the other ranges. 19 and 20, “total extension” is the total extension of the pipeline corresponding to the attribute (VP, diameter 100 mm) and elapsed years of 2014 and 2013, respectively. This is the information of a certain year) From the information of all buried pipelines in each year as shown in (VP, 100mm), the pipeline of the same year (0-5, ..., 50-55) It is obtained by selecting and summing the extensions. The elapsed year can be calculated by subtracting the buried year from the accident year.

  In addition, “number of accidents” in FIGS. 19 and 20 is the number of accidents in the pipeline corresponding to the attribute (VP, caliber 100 mm) and elapsed years in 2014 and 2013, respectively. (This is information for a certain year) From the leakage accident pipeline information for each fiscal year as shown in the figure, pipeline accidents with attributes (VP, 100 mm) and elapsed years (0-5, ..., 50-55) And select the sum of the numbers.

  The “accident rate” in FIGS. 19 and 20 is the number of accidents in the same elapsed year divided by the total extension. Each of the accident rate tables 1900 and 2000 in FIGS. 19 and 20 corresponds to the result of calculating the accident rates for two years in the 2014 and 2013 years. For example, the figures for the 10 years from 2014 to 2005 are shown. If the accident information shown in FIG. 18 is present, the accident rate for each year from 2014 to 2005 is calculated.

  Note that the above-mentioned accident rate should increase monotonously with the increase in elapsed years. However, as shown in the accident rate table 2000 in FIG. Therefore, it is desirable to calculate the average accident rate from the accident rates of multiple years. Therefore, the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 averages the accident rates (FIG. 19, FIG. 20, etc.) obtained above to obtain an average accident rate characteristic. An example is shown in FIG. The average accident rate table 2100 shown in FIG. 21 corresponds to the result of obtaining the average accident rate for the past 10 years from 2014 to 2005. “Total extension” and “number of accidents” in FIG. 21 are the average of the total extension and the number of accidents in each year. The “accident rate” in FIG. 21 is obtained by dividing the average number of accidents by the average total extension. It is also possible to simply calculate the average accident rate by averaging the accident rates for each fiscal year.

  FIG. 22 is a diagram showing a graph of the average accident rate described above. By taking an average regarding the accident rate as described above, it is possible to obtain a characteristic close to a characteristic that should be originally (the accident rate monotonously increases with respect to the elapsed year).

  In this accident data analysis, only the accident rate up to 50 years can be calculated. It is necessary to predict the future accident rate in order to calculate the future LCC. Therefore, the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 determines the constants c and d by the least square method so that the actual data conforms to the following formula 2.

y = c · d ^t (Expression 2)
Here, y: accident rate (cases / year / km), t: elapsed years, c, d: constants.

  A predicted accident rate curve determined by the method of least squares is shown by a dotted line 2300 in FIG. The average accident rate table 2400 in FIG. 24 is obtained by predicting and calculating the average accident rate over 50 years using this curve. The calculated value is “(predicted value)” to the right of the numerical value in the average accident rate table 2400. The average accident rate table 2400 shown in FIG. 24 is stored in the calculation result database 1702 and used for LCC calculation.

  The accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 first calculates a running cost by multiplying the accident rate thus obtained by an accident response cost such as a water leakage cost, and then calculates an LCC.

  Next, a method for calculating the water leakage cost will be described. The accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 calculates the water leakage cost based on the water leakage ratio and the number of water leakage accidents table 2500 shown in FIG. Accident information for various water distribution areas illustrated in FIG. 2 for various years (for example, FIG. 18 shows accident information for area A and 2014, but is different in all other areas stored in the accident information database 1701. Using all accident information for the year), the total amount of water leaked from the water supply pipes and distribution pipes for each year and the total number of water leaks can be obtained. The ratio of the water leakage amount of the water supply pipe can be obtained from the total water leakage amount from the water supply pipe and the water distribution pipe as follows: water supply pipe total water leakage amount / (water distribution pipe total water leakage amount + water supply pipe total water leakage amount) × 100. Similarly, the water leakage ratio of the water distribution pipe can also be obtained by the following formula: water distribution pipe total water leakage / (water distribution pipe total water leakage + water supply pipe total water leakage) × 100.

  The accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 calculates the water pipe leakage ratio, distribution pipe leakage ratio, water pipe leakage accident number, distribution pipe leakage accident number obtained in each fiscal year, the water leakage ratio shown in FIG. They are organized as a table 2500 and stored in the calculation result database 1702.

  In the example of the water leakage ratio and water leakage accident number table 2500 shown in FIG. 25, values for the past 10 years are obtained from 2014, and the average values thereof are also stored. The accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 calculates the water leakage cost per water leakage accident using the average data and the information on the annual water leakage amount and the water supply cost.

  Here, the annual amount of water leakage R is calculated as follows, assuming that the average daily demand A (m3) from 2014 to 2005 and the water leakage rate indicating the rate of water leakage from the water supply / distribution pipes are X (%). 365 × X / 100 (m3). When this is multiplied by the cost of water supply (yen / m3), the amount of water leakage loss C (yen) for one year is obtained. Multiply this loss by the average water pipe leakage ratio (50% in Fig. 25, 0.5), and divide by the average number of water pipe leaks (50 in Fig. 25). Cost). In this case, the cost is significantly higher than the cost obtained by multiplying the average value of the amount of water leakage from the distribution pipe calculated from the information shown in FIG. This is because there is water leakage that cannot be found. The water leakage cost obtained by the above method can be considered as a cost including water leakage that is not discovered. The above method calculates the average water leakage cost that does not depend on pipe line attributes such as pipe type, but for each pipe type, it calculates the water leakage rate and the number of water leakage accidents for each pipe type. The water leakage cost can be obtained.

  For that purpose, the information of the water leakage ratio and the water leakage accident number table 2600 illustrated in FIG. 26 is obtained and utilized. Accident information for various water distribution areas in FIG. 2 (for example, FIG. 18 shows accident information for area A and 2014, but all other areas stored in the accident information database 1701 and all accidents in different years). Accident information) can be used to determine the total amount of water leakage and the total number of water leakage accidents from each pipe type (VP, SP, etc.) of the water distribution pipe every year. The ratio of the leakage amount of each pipe type of the distribution pipe can be obtained from the total leakage quantity from each pipe type of the distribution pipe by the total leakage quantity of the pipe type corresponding to the distribution pipe / total leakage quantity of the distribution pipe × 100.

  A table illustrated in FIG. 26 is obtained by organizing the information thus obtained for each year. The water leakage ratio / leakage accident number table 2600 in FIG. 26 stores the water leakage rate ratio and the number of water leakage accidents for 10 years from 2014 to 2005 together with the average. This example shows a case in which accident information for the past 10 years is used from 2014 as a base point. If only accident information for 4 years is available, the leak rate for 4 years and the number of leaks are obtained and the average is stored in the calculation result database.

  The accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 calculates the cost (leakage cost) per leak incident of each pipe type of the distribution pipe using this average data, information on annual leakage from the distribution pipe, and information on the water supply cost. it can. The annual leakage amount R from the distribution pipe is the average daily demand A (m3) from 2014 to 2005, the leakage rate is X (%), and the leakage ratio from the distribution pipe is Y (%) (Fig. 25). Assuming that an average value of 50% is used), A * 365 * X / 100 * Y / 100 (m3). When this is multiplied by the cost of water supply (yen / m3), the leakage loss C1 (yen) from the distribution pipe for one year is obtained. In addition, this loss is multiplied by the average leak rate of each pipe type in the distribution pipe (in FIG. 26, 70% for VP is 0.7, and 8% for SP is 0.08). Dividing by the number of water leakage accidents (35 in VP and 5 in SP in FIG. 26), the cost (leakage cost) per leakage accident of each pipe type of the distribution pipe is calculated. The accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 stores this information in the calculation result database 1702 and uses it for the LCC calculation.

  As for repair costs, water outage compensation costs, and inundation compensation costs, accident information data for each distribution year (for example, FIG. 18 shows accident information for area A and 2014, but is stored in the accident information database 1701). By classifying the cost data by pipe type and caliber from all other areas and information on all accidents in different years), and taking the average, the average repair cost by pipe type and caliber, water outage Compensation cost and inundation compensation cost can be calculated. These pieces of information are stored in the calculation result database 1702 and used for LCC calculation.

  Next, the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 uses the water leakage cost, repair cost, water outage compensation cost, inundation compensation cost, and accident rate for each pipeline attribute (tube type, diameter) calculated by the method described above. Then, the cumulative running cost, running cost, introduction cost, and LCC are calculated for each pipeline attribute. An example of a calculation result for a pipe type VP and a pipe having a diameter of 100 mm is shown in an LCC table 2700 in FIG.

  Here, running cost (5 years total cost) CR (5) at the age of 5 years is the water leakage cost per accident, repair cost, water outage compensation cost, inundation for pipe type VP, pipe diameter of 100 mm From the total CA of the compensation cost, the accident rate R (0-5) of the elapsed years “0-5” and the discount rate I (%) in the average accident rate table 2400 of FIG.

ここで、５Ｒは単位長さ（１ｋｍ）の５年間の累積事故件数を表わす。割引率は、事業体の１年間の支払い利息総額を総資本で割って算出されるものである。２．５は経過年数「０〜５」の０と５の平均値である。経過年数１０年時点の累積コストは、次の（数４）で計算される。

Here, 5R represents the cumulative number of accidents over a five-year period of unit length (1 km). The discount rate is calculated by dividing the entity's annual interest expense by total capital. 2.5 is an average value of 0 and 5 of the elapsed years “0 to 5”. The accumulated cost at the time of 10 years elapsed is calculated by the following (Equation 4).

同様に、経過年数Ｔ年時点の累積コストは、次の（数５）のようになる。

Similarly, the accumulated cost at the time of elapsed years T is as shown in the following (Equation 5).

これらの数値が、図２７のＬＣＣテーブル２７００における累積ランニングコストの列に計算、記録される。また、ランニングコストは、累積ランニングコストから次の（数６）で計算される。

These numerical values are calculated and recorded in the column of accumulated running costs in the LCC table 2700 of FIG. The running cost is calculated by the following (Equation 6) from the accumulated running cost.

ここで、右辺第２項は、資本回収係数である。

Here, the second term on the right side is a capital recovery factor.

  Further, the introduction cost CI (T) at the elapsed time T is calculated by the following (Equation 7) from the laying replacement cost CB of the 1 km pipe having the target attribute (tube type VP, diameter 100 mm).

経過年数Ｔ時点のライフサイクルコストＬＣＣ（Ｔ）は、次の（数８）により算出される。

The life cycle cost LCC (T) at the elapsed time T is calculated by the following (Equation 8).

LCC (T) = CR1 (T) + CI (T) (Equation 8)
In the above calculation, a strict calculation considering the time value of the cost becomes possible by providing a discount rate. For entities with high borrowing, the discount rate is higher and the renewal period is longer.

  These calculated values are stored in the calculation result database 1702 in the format of the LCC table 2700 shown in FIG. Note that the data in the LCC table 2700 in FIG. 27 is calculated for each pipeline attribute (tube type, diameter).

  By using these calculation results, the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 can draw the LCC curve illustrated in FIG. 13 for each pipeline attribute. Calculations can be made.

  FIG. 28 illustrates a flowchart corresponding to the above processing executed by the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700. In this case, in step s400, the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 calculates a yearly accident rate (FIG. 19, FIG. 20, etc.) for a certain pipe line attribute, for example, pipe type VP, pipe diameter of 100 mm, This is stored in the calculation result database 1702.

  Subsequently, in step s401, the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 calculates an average accident rate (FIG. 21 and the like) using the accident rate data by year, and stores this in the calculation result database 1702.

  Next, in step s402, the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 constructs an accident rate prediction model by using the least square method so that the actual data conforms to the above-described Equation 2 (the dotted line 2300 in FIG. 23 is the predicted value). Further, in step s403, the accident rate of the elapsed years (for example, 50 years or more elapsed) that cannot be calculated from the actual data is predicted using this, and calculated in the format of FIG. 24 together with the accident rate calculated from the actual data. Store in the result database 1702.

  In step 404, the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 calculates the water leakage cost per leakage accident of the target pipe type (VP) using the data of FIGS. In step s405, the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 calculates other costs (repair costs, water outage compensation costs, inundation compensation costs per accident of the target pipe type VP) by the above-described method. Store in the result database 1702.

  Subsequently, in step s406, the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 calculates the cumulative running cost of the target pipe line attribute (pipe type VP, caliber 100 mm) using the above-described formula 5, and stores this in the calculation result database. Is written in a predetermined file (in the format of FIG. 27). In step s407, the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 calculates the running cost of the target pipe line attribute (pipe type VP, caliber 100 mm) using the above-described equation 6, and calculates this in a predetermined result in the calculation result database. Write to file (format in FIG. 27).

  Next, in step s408, the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 calculates the introduction cost of the target pipeline attribute (pipe type VP, caliber 100 mm) using the above-described equation 7, and this is calculated in the calculation result database. Write to file (format in FIG. 27).

  Further, in step s409, the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 calculates the running cost LCC of the target pipe line attribute (pipe type VP, caliber 100 mm) using the above equation 8, and stores this in the calculation result database. Write to a predetermined file (format in FIG. 27). In step s410, the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 determines whether or not the update is necessary by the method described above. In step s411, the accident rate estimation / LCC calculation program 1700 displays the above calculation result on the output device 106 or the like and ends the process.

  In the fourth embodiment described above, it is possible to draw an LCC curve by utilizing partial accident information and to determine whether or not a pipeline update is necessary. Also, when accident information for a new year is added, the accident rate for that year (in the format shown in FIG. 19) is calculated using that information, and the accident rate is calculated by calculating the average accident rate (FIG. 21). The calculation accuracy can be improved to improve the LCC calculation accuracy, that is, the pipeline update necessity determination accuracy and the optimal update time calculation accuracy can be increased.

  Although the best mode for carrying out the present invention has been specifically described above, the present invention is not limited to this, and various modifications can be made without departing from the scope of the invention.

According to the pipeline renewal planning support system of the present embodiment, an accurate LCC (Life Cycle) is based on the actual number of accidents and actual response costs for each pipeline to be planned.
Cost) is calculated, and based on this, it is possible to determine the pipeline renewal time at which the LCC is minimized with high accuracy. As a result, it also leads to a reduction in capital investment for pipelines.

  Therefore, according to the present invention, it is possible to support the planning of a pipeline renewal plan with good accuracy that minimizes the life cycle cost of the pipeline.

  At least the following will be clarified by the description of the present specification. That is, in the pipeline update plan planning support system according to the present embodiment, the storage device includes, as the performance information of the corresponding costs, pipeline repair costs, water cutoff compensation costs, inundation compensation costs, and water leakage costs. Information is stored, and in the calculation of the life cycle cost, the arithmetic device extracts each information of the service life and the introduction cost at the time of laying the pipeline from the attribute information of the corresponding pipeline, and the extracted information is included in the extracted information. Based on the information on each cost stored in the storage device and the information on the service years, the cumulative value of each cost related to the corresponding pipeline is calculated based on the amount of introduction cost per unit year related to the corresponding pipeline. The running cost, which is the amount per unit year related to the sum of the costs, is calculated, and the introduction cost and the running cost per unit year are added together to calculate the running cost. It is intended to calculate the cycle costs, and it is preferred to.

  According to this, it becomes possible to calculate the life cycle cost, which is a material for determining whether or not the pipeline needs to be updated, based on each significant cost, and the accuracy of the pipeline update plan is improved.

  Further, in the pipeline update plan planning support system of the present embodiment, the calculation device reads information from the storage device regarding the inundation compensation cost when calculating the running cost, and calculates the total inundation compensation cost in the past predetermined period. And calculate the expected value of inundation compensation per leak incident involving inundation compensation by dividing the calculated value by the total number of inundation accidents involving inundation compensation in the predetermined period in the past. The expected cost value may be multiplied by the actual number of accidents of the relevant pipeline at each predetermined time to calculate the inundation compensation cost for the relevant pipeline at each time in the predetermined period.

  According to this, even inundation compensation costs that are not frequently generated can be appropriately used for calculating the life cycle cost, and the accuracy of the pipeline renewal planning is improved.

  Further, in the pipeline renewal plan planning support system of the present embodiment, the calculation device reads information from the storage device regarding the water leakage cost when calculating the running cost, and calculates the total water leakage cost in a past predetermined period. Then, the calculated value is divided by the total number of water leakage accidents in the past predetermined period to calculate a unit water leakage cost per one water leakage accident. It is good also as calculating the water leakage cost of the said pipe line in each time of the said predetermined period by multiplying the number of actual accidents.

  According to this, it is possible to calculate the life cycle cost in consideration of the cost of water loss due to water leakage, in addition to the cost of repairing the relevant part at the time of water leakage detection. Improves accuracy.

Further, in the pipeline update plan planning support system of the present embodiment, the arithmetic unit is based on the actual information on the occurrence year and the number of occurrences of the water leakage accident, which is held in the storage device with respect to the pipeline of the predetermined attribute, Deriving a formula that defines the relationship between the service life of the pipeline and the total number of water leakage incidents up to the service life, calculate the number of water leakage accidents at a predetermined time in the future, and calculate the value of the number of water leakage accidents Is used for calculating the running cost, the future life cycle cost of the pipeline with the predetermined attribute is calculated, the future renewal time of the distribution pipeline with the minimum life cycle cost is specified, and the specified Information on future update times may be output to the output device.

  According to this, in addition to the life cycle cost from the past to the present time, it is possible to calculate the future life cycle cost based on the actual results, and the accuracy of the pipeline renewal planning is further improved.

  Further, in the pipeline update plan planning support system of the present embodiment, the calculation device is the same as the relevant pipeline when the leakage information about the pipeline having the predetermined attribute is not stored in the storage device. For multiple other pipelines with different service years depending on the attribute, the actual number of water leakage accidents that occurred between the current time and a specific period is received from the input device and stored in the storage device. Based on the actual number of incidents of water leaks made, the relationship between the number of years in service of the relevant other pipelines to the specified period and the total number of accidents of water leaks up to the relevant period was determined. Using the relationship, the number of water leakage accidents at the predetermined time in the corresponding pipeline is calculated, and the value of the number of water leakage accidents is used for the calculation of the running cost. It is to compute the Rukosuto may be.

  According to this, even for pipelines that have not accumulated the record of water leakage accidents and various costs associated therewith, it is relatively short-term for other pipelines with the same attributes and different years of service installed in the same area. By collecting data during this period, it is possible to specify a formula for calculating the number of water leakage accidents in each service year and combine them to calculate the life cycle cost.

  Further, in the pipeline update plan planning support system of the present embodiment, the arithmetic device extracts each information of the pipeline extension and the number of water leakage accidents by service years in a predetermined year from the storage information of the storage device, Calculate the total length of pipelines and the total number of accidents by service years in a given year, calculate the average accident rate by service years based on the information obtained by the calculation, and calculate the calculated average accident rate and The life cycle cost may be calculated by a predetermined algorithm based on the corresponding cost information held by the storage device.

  According to this, if there is accident history data for the past year, an accident rate curve can be calculated, and the number of accident history data utilized for analysis increases, that is, accident history data for various years is accumulated. As a result, the calculation accuracy of the accident rate curve is improved.

  Further, in the pipeline update plan planning support method of the present embodiment, the information processing apparatus uses the storage device as the performance information of the corresponding cost as pipeline repair cost, water cutoff compensation cost, inundation compensation cost, and water leakage. The cost information is stored, and in calculating the life cycle cost, the service life and the introduction cost when laying the pipeline are extracted from the attribute information of the pipeline, and the extracted information is included in the extracted information. Based on the information on each cost stored in the storage device and the information on the service years, the cumulative value of each cost related to the corresponding pipeline is calculated based on the amount of introduction cost per unit year related to the corresponding pipeline. The running cost, which is the amount per unit year related to the sum of the costs, is calculated, and the life cost is calculated by adding the introduction cost and the running cost per unit year. To calculate the Kurukosuto, it may be.

  Further, in the pipeline update plan planning support method of the present embodiment, the information processing apparatus reads information from the storage device regarding the inundation compensation cost when calculating the running cost, and the inundation compensation cost total amount in the past predetermined period. By dividing the calculated value by the total number of water leakage accidents involving inundation compensation in the past predetermined period to calculate the expected value of inundation compensation cost per water leakage accident involving inundation compensation. The compensation cost expected value may be multiplied by the actual number of accidents in the relevant pipeline at each predetermined time to calculate the inundation compensation cost for the relevant pipeline at each time in the predetermined period.

  Further, in the pipeline update plan planning support method of the present embodiment, the information processing device reads information from the storage device regarding the water leakage cost when calculating the running cost, and calculates the total water leakage cost in a past predetermined period. Then, the calculated value is divided by the total number of water leakage accidents in the past predetermined period to calculate a unit water leakage cost per one water leakage accident. It is good also as calculating the water leak cost of the applicable pipe line in each time of the above-mentioned predetermined period by multiplying the actual number of road accidents.

  Further, in the pipeline renewal plan planning support method of the present embodiment, the information processing device is based on the actual information on the year of occurrence and the number of occurrences of the water leakage accident held in the storage device with respect to the pipeline of the predetermined attribute Deriving a formula that defines the relationship between the service life of the pipeline and the total number of water leakage incidents up to the service life, and calculating the number of water leakage accidents at a predetermined future time using the formula, The value is used for calculation of the running cost to calculate the future life cycle cost of the pipeline with the predetermined attribute, specify the future renewal time of the distribution pipeline that minimizes the life cycle cost, and The information on the future update time may be output to the output device.

  Further, in the pipeline update plan planning support method of the present embodiment, when the information processing device has not stored the actual leakage information on the pipeline of the predetermined attribute in the storage device, the relevant pipeline and For multiple other pipelines with the same attributes and different years of service, the actual number of water leakage accidents that occurred between the current time and a specific time is received from the input device and stored in the storage device. Based on the actual number of water leakage accidents obtained, the relationship between the years of service of the relevant other pipeline to the specified period and the total number of water leakage accidents up to that period are determined, and each period obtained for each other pipeline Using the above relationship, the number of water leakage accidents at a predetermined time in the corresponding pipeline is calculated, and the value of the number of water leakage accidents is used for calculating the running cost. Calculating the Rukosuto may be.

  Further, in the management update plan planning support method of the present embodiment, the information processing device extracts each piece of information about the length of pipeline extension and the number of water leakage accidents by service years in a predetermined year from the storage information of the storage device. Calculate the total length of pipelines and the total number of accidents by service years in a given year, calculate the average accident rate by service years based on the information obtained by the calculation, and calculate the calculated average accident rate and The life cycle cost may be calculated by a predetermined algorithm based on information on the corresponding cost held by the storage device.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 100 Pipeline renewal planning support system 101 Storage device 102 Program 103 Memory 104 Arithmetic device 105 Input device 106 Output device 110 LCC actual value calculation / display program 111 LCC prediction value calculation / display program 112 Cumulative accident and step prediction model construction program 125 Pipeline information database 126 Cost information database

Claims (14)

A storage device storing each information of the attribute of the pipeline, and the actual cost of the response cost associated with the water leakage accident that occurred during the predetermined period;
The information on the corresponding cost performance is extracted from the storage device with respect to the pipeline with the predetermined attribute, the life cycle cost at least for a predetermined period is calculated by a predetermined algorithm based on the information on the corresponding cost performance, and the life cycle cost is minimized. A computing device that identifies the update time of the water distribution pipeline to be output and outputs information of the specified update time to the output device;
A pipeline renewal planning support system characterized by comprising: The storage device
As the performance information of the corresponding cost, information of each cost of pipeline repair cost, water cutoff compensation cost, inundation compensation cost, and water leakage cost is stored.
The arithmetic unit is:
In the calculation of the life cycle cost, each information of the service life and the introduction cost at the time of laying the pipeline is extracted from the attribute information of the corresponding pipeline, and the introduction cost per unit year for the corresponding pipeline is extracted based on the extracted information. Based on the information on each cost stored in the storage device and the information on the service years, the running cost, which is the amount per unit year related to the sum of the accumulated values of the costs related to the corresponding pipeline, is calculated. Calculate the life cycle cost by adding the running cost and the introduction cost per unit year,
The pipeline renewal plan planning support system according to claim 1. The arithmetic unit is:
In calculating the running cost, information on the inundation compensation cost is read from the storage device, the total amount of inundation compensation cost in the past predetermined period is calculated, and the calculated value is used as a water leakage accident with inundation compensation in the past predetermined period. Divide by the total number of cases to calculate the expected inundation compensation cost per inundation accident with inundation compensation, and calculate the actual number of accidents in the relevant pipe line for each predetermined time against the expected inundation compensation cost. Multiplying to calculate the inundation compensation cost of the relevant pipeline at each time of the predetermined period,
The pipeline renewal plan planning support system according to claim 2. The arithmetic unit is:
When calculating the running cost, information is read from the storage device regarding the water leakage cost, the total water leakage cost in the past predetermined period is calculated, and the calculated value is divided by the total number of water leakage accidents in the past predetermined period. , Calculate the unit leakage cost per leakage accident, and multiply the unit leakage cost by the actual number of accidents of the relevant pipeline at each predetermined time to leak the relevant pipe at each time of the predetermined period To calculate the cost,
The pipeline renewal plan planning support system according to claim 3. The arithmetic unit is:
The relationship between the service years of the pipes and the total number of water leaks up to the service years based on the actual information on the year and number of occurrences of the water leakage accident that is held in the storage device for the pipes with the predetermined attributes The number of water leakage accidents at a predetermined future time is calculated using the mathematical formula, and the value of the number of water leakage accidents is used to calculate the running cost. It calculates the life cycle cost, specifies the future update time of the water distribution pipeline that minimizes the life cycle cost, and outputs the information of the specified future update time to the output device.
The pipeline renewal plan planning support system according to claim 3. The arithmetic unit is:
In the storage device, when the actual information on the water leakage accident related to the pipeline with the predetermined attribute is not stored, a plurality of other pipelines having the same attribute as the corresponding pipeline and different in service years, from the present time to the specific time The actual number of water leakage accidents that occur between the two pipes is received from the input device and stored in the storage device. Determine the relationship between the period up to the period and the total number of water leakage accidents up to that period, and use the relationship for each period obtained for each other pipe to calculate the number of water leaks at the specified time in the relevant pipe Then, by using the value of the number of water leakage accidents for the calculation of the running cost, the life cycle cost of the corresponding pipeline is calculated.
The pipeline renewal plan planning support system according to claim 1, wherein: The arithmetic unit is:
From the storage information of the storage device, extract each information of pipeline extension and number of water leakage accidents by service years in a given year, calculate the total pipeline extension and accident totals by service years in a given year, An average accident rate for each service life is calculated based on the information obtained by the calculation, and the life is calculated using a predetermined algorithm based on the calculated average accident rate and the corresponding cost information held by the storage device. Cycle cost is calculated,
The pipeline renewal plan planning support system according to claim 1. An information processing apparatus including a storage device that stores information on the attributes of pipelines and the actual cost of response costs associated with a water leakage accident that occurred during a predetermined period,
The information on the corresponding cost performance is extracted from the storage device with respect to the pipeline with the predetermined attribute, the life cycle cost at least for a predetermined period is calculated by a predetermined algorithm based on the information on the corresponding cost performance, and the life cycle cost is minimized. Identify the update time of the distribution pipe to be output, and output the information of the specified update time to the output device,
A pipeline renewal planning support method characterized by that. The information processing apparatus is
In the storage device, as the performance information of the corresponding cost, information of each cost of pipeline repair cost, water cutoff compensation cost, inundation compensation cost, and water leakage cost is stored,
In the calculation of the life cycle cost, each information of the service life and the introduction cost at the time of laying the pipeline is extracted from the attribute information of the corresponding pipeline, and the introduction cost per unit year for the corresponding pipeline is extracted based on the extracted information. Based on the information on each cost stored in the storage device and the information on the service years, the running cost, which is the amount per unit year related to the sum of the accumulated values of the costs related to the corresponding pipeline, is calculated. Calculate the life cycle cost by adding the running cost and the introduction cost per unit year,
The pipe line renewal plan planning support method according to claim 8. The information processing apparatus is
In calculating the running cost, information on the inundation compensation cost is read from the storage device, the total amount of inundation compensation cost in the past predetermined period is calculated, and the calculated value is used as a water leakage accident with inundation compensation in the past predetermined period. Divide by the total number of cases to calculate the expected inundation compensation cost per inundation accident with inundation compensation, and calculate the actual number of accidents in the relevant pipe line for each predetermined time against the expected inundation compensation cost. Multiply to calculate the inundation compensation cost of the relevant pipeline at each time of the predetermined period,
The pipeline renewal plan planning support method according to claim 9. The information processing apparatus is
When calculating the running cost, information is read from the storage device regarding the water leakage cost, the total water leakage cost in the past predetermined period is calculated, and the calculated value is divided by the total number of water leakage accidents in the past predetermined period. , Calculate the unit leakage cost per leakage accident, and multiply the unit leakage cost by the actual number of accidents of the relevant pipeline at each predetermined time to leak the relevant pipe at each time of the predetermined period Calculate the cost,
The pipeline renewal planning support method according to claim 10. The information processing apparatus is
The relationship between the service years of the pipes and the total number of water leaks up to the service years based on the actual information on the year and number of occurrences of the water leakage accident that is held in the storage device for the pipes with the predetermined attributes The number of water leakage accidents at a predetermined future time is calculated using the mathematical formula, and the value of the number of water leakage accidents is used to calculate the running cost. Calculate the life cycle cost, specify the future update time of the distribution pipeline that minimizes the life cycle cost, and output the information of the specified future update time to the output device.
The pipeline renewal planning support method according to claim 10. The information processing apparatus is
In the storage device, when the actual information on the water leakage accident related to the pipeline with the predetermined attribute is not stored, a plurality of other pipelines having the same attribute as the corresponding pipeline and different in service years, from the present time to the specific time The actual number of water leakage accidents that occur between the two pipes is received from the input device and stored in the storage device. Determine the relationship between the period up to the period and the total number of water leakage accidents up to that period, and use the relationship for each period obtained for each other pipe to calculate the number of water leaks at the specified time in the relevant pipe And calculating the life cycle cost of the relevant pipeline by using the value of the number of water leakage accidents for the calculation of the running cost.
The pipeline renewal planning support method according to claim 8, wherein: The information processing apparatus is
From the storage information of the storage device, extract each information of pipeline extension and number of water leakage accidents by service years in a given year, calculate the total pipeline extension and accident totals by service years in a given year, An average accident rate for each service life is calculated based on the information obtained by the calculation, and the life is calculated using a predetermined algorithm based on the calculated average accident rate and the corresponding cost information held by the storage device. Calculate the cycle cost,
The pipe line renewal plan planning support method according to claim 8.

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