JP6191513B2 - Power generation prediction device - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a power generation amount prediction apparatus.

  Electric power companies are based on consumer power usage characteristics and weather conditions such as season, weather, temperature, etc. so that there is a balance between power demand such as power consumption and power supply such as power generation. The power demand is predicted in advance, and a command is issued to the power plant so as to follow the predicted power demand, thereby controlling the power supply.

  The upper diagram in FIG. 1 shows the time transition of the power consumption and the generated power amount in the power system, and the lower diagram shows the time transition of the frequency fluctuation.

  According to FIG. 1, when the difference between the power demand and the power supply increases, the frequency fluctuation increases, leading to a decrease in power quality. Further, when the power demand greatly exceeds the power supply, the number of revolutions of the generator is reduced, and the frequency is significantly reduced. In order to suppress a decrease in the number of rotations of the generator, in some cases, it is necessary to temporarily cope with a power failure or the like. A power outage is performed by disconnecting the power load connected to the power system.

  FIG. 2 shows the time transition of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation panel.

  As indicated by the solid line, when the weather is clear and the sky is cloudless, the amount of generated power increases with increasing sun elevation from morning to noon and decreases after noon.

  On the other hand, as indicated by a dotted line, even if the weather is fine, the amount of solar radiation that temporarily reaches the photovoltaic power generation panel through the passage of clouds may decrease, and the amount of generated power may drop significantly.

  Based on the moving direction and moving speed of the cloud obtained from the weather data acquired from the meteorological observation device, and the actual power and weather information at the observation point such as the solar power generation device and the vehicle located upstream of the moving direction of the cloud, A technique for predicting a future power generation amount of a solar power generation device located downstream in the cloud moving direction is known (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

JP 2012-215969 A

  It is envisaged that solar power generation panels will spread in the future and the proportion of solar power generation in the power system will increase. In this case, if an unexpected decrease in the amount of generated power occurs in a plurality of photovoltaic power generation panels, it is expected that the difference between power demand and power supply will increase because of the large proportion of solar power generation in the power system. The As the difference between the power demand and the power supply becomes large, it becomes a major factor in the deterioration of power quality and the occurrence of power outages.

  Even if an unexpected decrease in the amount of generated power occurs in a plurality of photovoltaic power generation panels, if the amount of generated power can be accurately predicted, the power demand and the amount of power supply can be calculated based on the predicted value of the generated power. The difference can be reduced.

  The object of the present invention is to improve the prediction accuracy of the amount of photovoltaic power generation.

A power generation amount prediction apparatus according to an embodiment of the disclosure is:
The cloud movement direction is acquired from the weather observation data transmitted from the meteorological observation device, and based on the information related to the movement direction of the cloud and the amount of photovoltaic power generation at the observation point for observing the power generation amount, A power generation amount prediction device for predicting a power generation amount when the cloud arrives at a prediction point located downstream in the moving direction of the cloud ,
The solar power generation amount including information indicating the solar radiation state or information indicating the power generation amount, which is obtained by guiding the mobile terminal to the observation point and acquiring the power generation amount at the prediction point. It has a control part which acquires information about.

  According to the disclosed embodiment, the prediction accuracy of the amount of photovoltaic power generation can be improved.

It is a figure which shows an example of the time transition of the electric energy consumption in an electric power grid | system, and generated electric energy. It is a figure which shows an example of the time transition of the electric power generation amount by a solar power generation panel. It is a figure which shows one Example of a system. It is a figure which shows one Example of the method of estimating the electric power generation amount of a solar power generation device. It is a figure which shows one Example of operation | movement of a system. It is a flowchart which shows one Example of operation | movement of an electric power generation amount prediction apparatus. It is a figure which shows the application example (the 1) of the method of estimating the electric power generation which concerns on a present Example. It is a figure which shows the application example (the 2) of the method of estimating the electric power generation which concerns on a present Example. It is a figure which shows the application example (the 3) of the method of estimating the electric power generation which concerns on a present Example.

Next, the form for implementing this invention is demonstrated, referring drawings based on the following Examples. Examples described below are merely examples, and embodiments to which the present invention is applied are not limited to the following examples.
In all the drawings for explaining the embodiments, the same reference numerals are used for those having the same function, and repeated explanation is omitted.

<Example>
<System>
FIG. 3 shows an example of a system to which an embodiment of the power generation amount prediction apparatus is applied. An example of the system is an energy management system (EMS). EMS is a computer system that uses information and communication technology (ICT) to optimize energy usage in homes, buildings, and factories.

  The system includes a management center 100, a solar power generation device A300, a solar power generation device B400, and a solar power generation device C500, which are connected to each other by a communication network 50 such as the Internet. Furthermore, a weather information center 200 and a mobile terminal 600 are connected to the communication network 50.

  The management center 100 is provided with a power generation amount prediction device 250, and prompts the power company to reduce power demand based on the amount of power generated by each solar power generation device predicted by the power generation amount prediction device 250. Or urge power companies to supply electricity. The power generation amount prediction device 250 predicts the amount of power generated by each solar power generation device by analyzing the position information and power generation amount of each solar power generation device and the weather observation data from the weather information center 200. An example of weather observation data is the moving direction and moving speed of clouds.

  The solar power generation device A300, the solar power generation device B400, and the solar power generation device C500 have solar panels that can generate power with sunlight. An example of a solar power generation device is a mega solar, a detached house with a solar panel, an apartment house with a solar panel, and the like.

  The weather information center 200 is a facility for transmitting weather-related data such as weather observation data and weather forecasts to the outside.

  The mobile terminal can acquire information on solar power generation such as solar radiation, and transmits the acquired information on solar power generation to the management center 100. An example of the mobile terminal is a mobile terminal such as a mobile phone or a smartphone on which a solar radiation sensor for measuring the amount of solar radiation is mounted (implemented), a vehicle, a ship, and the like.

<Power generation amount prediction device 250>
One embodiment of the power generation amount prediction apparatus 250 includes a communication unit (not shown), a control unit (not shown), and a storage unit (not shown).

  The communication unit can be connected to the communication network 50 by wire or wireless, and the weather information center 200, the solar power generation device A300, the solar power generation device B400, the solar power generation device C500, and the mobile terminal 600 connected to the communication network 50. Communicate with. For example, the communication unit receives weather observation data such as weather, cloud moving direction, cloud moving speed, wind direction, wind speed, and temperature from the weather information center 200 and inputs them to the control unit. Moreover, a communication part receives the information showing the measured value of electric power generation amount from each solar power generation device, and inputs it into a control part. The communication unit receives information indicating the output level of the solar radiation sensor and the operation level of the wiper from the mobile terminal 600 and inputs the information to the control unit.

  The control unit is connected to the communication unit and includes hardware such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) that controls the entire control unit. A control part estimates the electric power generation amount of each solar power generation device.

  FIG. 4 shows an embodiment of a method for predicting the power generation amount of the solar power generation device. Although FIG. 4 shows the case where the power generation amount of the solar power generation device A300 is predicted, the present invention can also be applied to the case where the power generation amount of the solar power generation device B400 and the solar power generation device C500 is predicted.

  The control unit sets an area within a predetermined distance centered on the installation position of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus A300 as an area to be a candidate for observing the amount of power generation (hereinafter referred to as “observation candidate area”). Next, on the basis of the information indicating the moving direction of the cloud acquired from the weather observation data input from the communication unit, the control unit sets the moving direction of the cloud with respect to the photovoltaic power generation apparatus A300 on the observation candidate area. An area for observing the power generation amount in the upstream direction (hereinafter referred to as “observation area”) is set.

In the example shown in FIG. 4, since the cloud is moving in the northeast direction, the control unit determines the amount of Set the observation area in the southwest direction, which is upstream of the moving direction. An example of the observation area is a fan shape surrounded by two radii of a circle centered on the predicted point and an arc between them. The control unit is a point (hereinafter referred to as “observation point”) where the amount of power generation such as another solar power generation device (in the example shown in FIG. 3, the solar power generation device B400 or the solar power generation device C500) can be observed in the observation area. ) Is obtained, the power generation amount observed at the observation point is acquired and stored in the storage unit. Moreover, a control part estimates the electric power generation amount of solar power generation device A300 based on the electric power generation amount observed in this observation point.
The control unit sets an observation point in the observation area when there is no observation point in the observation area. The observation point is preferably set to a point such as a road where the mobile terminal can move. In which direction the observation point should be provided differs from the predicted point depending on the moving direction of the cloud. Even when the observation point is provided at a position far from the solar power generation device A300, when the cloud reaches the predicted point, the shape of the cloud changes greatly, and the actual value of the power generation amount and the predicted value of the power generation amount Since there is a difference between the two, there is a risk that the prediction accuracy of the power generation amount is lowered. Therefore, the control unit sets the observation point within a predetermined distance from which the prediction accuracy of the power generation amount is assumed to be allowed. By setting the observation point within a predetermined distance, the observation point can be arranged at an appropriate position according to the movement of the cloud, so that the prediction accuracy of the power generation amount of the solar power generation device can be improved.

  Next, a control part performs the process which guides a mobile terminal to an observation point. For example, the control unit identifies a mobile terminal that exists in the observation area, uses the identified mobile terminal as a destination, and directs the mobile terminal to an observation point (hereinafter referred to as “observation point guidance information”). Is created and input to the communication section. The observation point guidance information is accompanied by information indicating the observation point. A control part specifies the mobile terminal which exists in an observation area by acquiring positional information from a mobile terminal. The mobile terminal may acquire position information by a positioning device such as GPS, or may consider the position of the mobile terminal as the position of the base station that is performing communication. In order to guide a mobile terminal equipped with a device that can be used for predicting the amount of power generation, such as a solar radiation sensor, to the observation point, information representing a function installed in the mobile terminal is acquired in advance, and the information representing the function is obtained. The mobile terminal is preferably identified based on the basis.

  The communication unit transmits observation point guidance information to the mobile terminal. The mobile terminal that has received the observation point guidance information sets the observation point as the destination. For example, a mobile terminal that has received observation point guidance information activates a navigation application installed in the mobile terminal and guides it to the observation point. After guiding to the observation point, the mobile terminal activates a questionnaire application installed in the mobile terminal, acquires information on solar power generation from the user, and transmits the information to the power generation amount prediction apparatus 250. A control part stores the information regarding the photovoltaic power generation notified from a portable terminal in a memory | storage part. A control part estimates the electric power generation amount of solar power generation device A300 based on the information regarding the solar power generation notified from a portable terminal.

  In addition, after guiding to the observation point, the mobile terminal may activate the camera, cause the user to take an image of the sky, and transmit it to the power generation amount prediction apparatus 250. A control apparatus estimates the electric power generation amount of the solar power generation device A300 by image-processing the sky image notified from a portable terminal. In addition, after guiding to the observation point, the mobile terminal may measure the power generation amount by a solar power generation panel mounted on the mobile terminal and transmit the power generation amount to the power generation amount prediction device 250. The control unit stores the power generation amount notified from the portable terminal in the storage unit. A control part estimates the electric power generation amount of solar power generation device A300 based on the electric power generation amount notified from a portable terminal.

  In addition, a navigation system mounted on a vehicle or ship that has received observation point guidance information sets an observation point as a destination. Vehicles and ships are guided to the observation point. When guided to the observation point, the photovoltaic power generation panel mounted on the vehicle or ship measures the power generation amount, and the communication unit mounted on the vehicle or ship transmits the actual measurement value of the power generation amount to the power generation amount prediction device 250. To do. When there are a plurality of routes to the destination, the navigation system may preferentially guide a route where an observation point exists in the middle of the route. By preferentially guiding the route where the observation point exists in the middle of the route, the vehicle or ship passes through the observation point while moving to the destination without making the user specially aware of the observation point. When this is done, the power generation amount is measured, and the communication unit mounted on the vehicle or ship can transmit the actual measurement value of the power generation amount to the power generation amount prediction device 250.

  The control unit stores the power generation amount notified from the vehicle or the ship in the storage unit. A control part estimates the electric power generation amount of the solar power generation device A300 based on the electric power generation amount notified from a vehicle or a ship.

  The storage unit is connected to the control unit and stores the power generation amount input from the control unit. For example, the storage unit stores the power generation amount together with the date / time information for each of the mobile terminal, the solar power generation devices A300, B400, and C500. Further, the storage unit stores, for each observation point, a power generation amount database in which the observation point type information (moving or fixed), date information, weather observation data, and power generation amount are linked. The power generation amount database will be described later.

<System operation>
FIG. 5 shows an example of the operation of the system.

  The weather is clear, the wind direction is southwest, and the clouds move northeast. The installation position of the solar power generation device B400 is downstream of the solar power generation device C500 in the moving direction of the clouds, and the solar power generation device C500 is beginning to cover the clouds.

  The photovoltaic power generation apparatuses B400 and C500 notify the management center 100 of the actual measurement value of the power generation amount.

  The power generation amount prediction device 250 of the management center 100 predicts the power generation amount of the solar power generation device B400 based on the actual measurement value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation device C500.

  On the other hand, regarding the solar power generation device A300, since there is no observation point upstream of the solar power generation device A300 in the cloud moving direction, the power generation amount prediction device 250 is in the direction southwest of the installation position of the solar power generation device A300. An observation point is set at, and the mobile terminal is guided to the observation point.

  The mobile terminal 600 guided to the observation point notifies the management center 100 of information relating to the amount of photovoltaic power generation such as the solar radiation state and temperature.

  The power generation amount prediction device 250 of the management center 100 predicts the power generation amount of the solar power generation device B400 based on the information regarding the solar power generation amount from the mobile terminal 600.

  The management center 100 may give incentives such as points to the mobile terminal 600 that has provided information on the amount of photovoltaic power generation. By providing incentives such as points to the mobile terminal 600 that has provided information on the amount of photovoltaic power generation, it becomes easier to obtain information on the amount of photovoltaic power generation from the mobile terminal 600, thus improving the prediction accuracy of the amount of power generation it can.

<Operation of Management Center 100>
FIG. 6 shows an example of the operation of the management center 100. FIG. 6 mainly shows the operation of the power generation amount prediction apparatus 250.

  In step S101, the communication unit of the power generation amount prediction apparatus 250 receives data. Examples of data received by the power generation amount prediction device 250 include meteorological observation data transmitted from the weather information center 200, actual measurement values of power generation amounts transmitted from the solar power generation devices A300, B400, and C500, and the mobile terminal 600. It is the positional information transmitted and the information regarding photovoltaic power generation.

In step S102, the control device of the power generation amount prediction apparatus 250 acquires information indicating the moving direction of the cloud from the weather observation data received in step S101, and in the observation candidate area based on the information indicating the moving direction of the cloud. Set the observation area.
In step S103, the control device of the power generation amount prediction apparatus 250 determines whether or not there is an observation point in the observation area set in step S102.

  In step S104, when it is determined in step S103 that there is no observation point in the observation area, the control device of the power generation amount prediction apparatus 250 guides the mobile terminal to the observation point. The control device of the power generation amount prediction apparatus 250 identifies the mobile terminal 600 existing in the observation area, creates observation point guidance information destined for the identified mobile terminal 600, and inputs it to the communication unit. The communication unit transmits observation point guidance information to the identified mobile terminal 600.

  In step S <b> 105, the control device of the power generation amount prediction apparatus 250 predicts the power generation amount at the prediction point based on the information about the solar power generation notified from the solar power generation device or the mobile terminal 600 located in the vicinity of the observation point. .

  FIG. 7 shows an application example (part 1) of the method for predicting the power generation amount according to the present embodiment. Solar power generation devices A300, B400, and C500 are installed.

  As shown in the left figure of FIG. 7, at 9:55 on October 10, 2013, the weather is clear, the wind direction is southwest, and the clouds move toward the northeast. In this case, the installation position of the solar power generation device B400 is downstream of the solar power generation device C500 in the moving direction of the clouds, and the clouds are starting to cover the solar power generation device C500.

  In this case, the power generation amount prediction device 250 predicts the power generation amount of the solar power generation device B400 based on the actual measurement value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation device C500. Since the cloud is starting to cover the solar power generation device C500, the amount of power generated by the solar power generation device C500 gradually decreases, and in the future, the sun located downstream of the solar power generation device C500 in the moving direction of the cloud It can be easily predicted that the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation apparatus B400 also decreases.

  On the other hand, regarding the power generation amount of the solar power generation device A300, since there is no observation point upstream of the solar power generation device A300 in the cloud moving direction, the power generation amount cannot be accurately predicted. For this reason, the power generation amount prediction apparatus 250 sets an observation point in the southwest direction from the installation position of the solar power generation apparatus A300, and guides the mobile terminal 600 to the observation point. The power generation amount prediction device 250 acquires information on solar power generation from the mobile terminal 600 guided to the observation point, and predicts the power generation amount of the solar power generation device A300 based on the information on the solar power generation. For example, the power generation amount prediction apparatus 250 uses a navigation system mounted on the vehicle to guide the vehicle to the observation point, and acquires the output level of the solar radiation sensor mounted on the vehicle.

  Furthermore, as shown in the right figure of FIG. 7, at 10:10 on October 10, 2013, the weather is clear, the wind direction is southwest, and the clouds move toward the northeast. The solar power generation device C500 and the observation point are covered with clouds.

  FIG. 8 shows an application example (No. 2) of the method for predicting the power generation amount according to the present embodiment. Specifically, it shows the power generation status at each observation point from 9:55 on October 10, 2013 to 10:10 on October 10, 2013. FIG. 8 shows the amount of photovoltaic power generation in photovoltaic power generation apparatuses A300, B400, and C500, and the output level of a solar radiation sensor mounted on the vehicle.

  According to the amount of photovoltaic power generation in the photovoltaic power generation devices A300 and B400, it is not covered by clouds from 9:55 on October 10, 2013 to 10:10 on October 10, 2013. The power generation amount is constant.

  According to the amount of photovoltaic power generation in the photovoltaic power generation device C500, it started to be covered with clouds at 9:55 on October 10, 2013, and it was clouded at 10:10 on October 10, 2013. Since it is covered, the amount of power generation decreases.

  According to the output level of the solar radiation sensor mounted on the vehicle at the observation point, it began to be covered with clouds at 9:55 on October 10, 2013, and 10:10 on October 10, 2013. Since it is covered with clouds at the moment, the output level decreases.

  The power generation amount prediction device 250 periodically acquires information representing the actual measurement value of the power generation amount from the solar power generation devices A300, B400, and C500, and also periodically acquires the output level of the solar radiation sensor from the mobile terminal 600. . The control device of the power generation amount prediction device 250 converts the output level of the solar radiation sensor into the amount of solar power generation.

  The control device of the power generation amount prediction apparatus 250 creates a power generation amount database in which the observation point type information (moving or fixed), date and time information, weather observation data, and the power generation amount are linked for each observation point.

  FIG. 9 shows an application example (part 3) of the method for predicting the power generation amount according to the present embodiment. Specifically, an example of the power generation amount database is shown. The control unit of the power generation amount prediction device 250 periodically performs solar information such as information representing the actual measurement value of the power generation amount from the solar power generation device, weather observation data from the weather information center 200, and the output level of the solar sensor from the mobile terminal 600. Get information about photovoltaic power generation. A control part estimates the electric power generation amount of solar power generation device A300 based on the output level of the solar radiation sensor acquired from the vehicle (AM-1). When predicting the power generation amount of the solar power generation device A300, the control unit converts the output level of the solar radiation sensor into the power generation amount based on the temperature, specifications of the solar panel, specifications, and the like.

  Moreover, a control part estimates the electric power generation amount of the solar power generation device B400 based on the electric power generation amount acquired from the solar power generation device C500. For example, the control unit can predict that the power generation amount of the solar power generation device B400 decreases to the same 2kW level as that of the solar power generation device C500 after a lapse of a predetermined time determined based on the moving speed of the clouds. In addition, the control unit can predict that the power generation amount decreases to the same 1 kW level as the power generation amount observed by the vehicle after the elapse of a predetermined time obtained based on the moving speed of the clouds.

  According to one embodiment of the power generation amount prediction apparatus, an observation point for observing the power generation amount is set according to the movement of the cloud, and a mobile terminal that informs the observation point of information related to solar power generation can be guided. Therefore, the prediction accuracy of the power generation amount at the prediction point where the power generation amount is predicted can be improved.

  If the information about solar power generation is to be notified to a fixedly arranged solar power generation panel or a vehicle that is moving arbitrarily, the observation required to predict the amount of power generation by the direction of cloud movement Since the locations are different, it is difficult to prepare a sufficient number of observation points at the present stage when the photovoltaic power generation panel is in the process of spreading, and sufficient prediction accuracy cannot be ensured.

  On the other hand, according to the present embodiment, since it is possible to guide the mobile terminal that informs the observation point of information relating to photovoltaic power generation, a sufficient number of observation points can be prepared, and the prediction accuracy of the power generation amount at the prediction point can be improved. Can be improved.

  Although the present invention has been described above with reference to specific embodiments, each embodiment is merely an example, and those skilled in the art will understand various variations, modifications, alternatives, substitutions, and the like. I will. For convenience of explanation, an apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention has been described using a functional block diagram, but such an apparatus may be implemented in hardware, software, or a combination thereof. The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and various variations, modifications, alternatives, substitutions, and the like are included without departing from the spirit of the present invention.

50 Communication Network 100 Management Center 200 Weather Information Center 250 Power Generation Prediction Device 300 Solar Power Generation Device A
400 Solar power generator B
500 Solar power generation device C
600 Mobile terminal

Claims (6)

The cloud movement direction is acquired from the weather observation data transmitted from the meteorological observation device, and based on the information related to the movement direction of the cloud and the amount of photovoltaic power generation at the observation point for observing the power generation amount, A power generation amount prediction device for predicting a power generation amount when the cloud arrives at a prediction point located downstream in the moving direction of the cloud ,
The solar power generation amount including information indicating the solar radiation state or information indicating the power generation amount, which is obtained by guiding the mobile terminal to the observation point and acquiring the power generation amount at the prediction point. A power generation amount prediction apparatus having a control unit that acquires information about the power generation.   The solar radiation state is acquired by a solar radiation sensor in the mobile terminal.
  The power generation amount prediction apparatus according to claim 1.   The solar radiation state is acquired from a user by a questionnaire application in the mobile terminal.
  The power generation amount prediction apparatus according to claim 1.   The information indicating the solar radiation state is an empty image captured by the mobile terminal.
  The power generation amount prediction apparatus according to claim 1.   The power generation amount is measured by a photovoltaic power generation panel at the mobile terminal.
  The power generation amount prediction apparatus according to claim 1.   The mobile terminal is guided to the observation point by a navigation system mounted on the mobile terminal.
  The power generation amount prediction apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

Images