JP6100188B2 - POWER LOAD ESTIMATION DEVICE, POWER LOAD ESTIMATION SYSTEM, POWER LOAD ESTIMATION METHOD, AND POWER LOAD ESTIMATION PROGRAM - Google Patents

Description

  Embodiments described herein relate generally to a power load estimation device, a power load estimation system, a power load estimation method, and a power load estimation program.

  There is a power load estimation system that estimates whether or not power is being supplied from a commercial power system to customer equipment (on and off). However, the power load estimation system has not been able to appropriately estimate the active power of a device to which power is supplied from the power system.

Japanese Patent No. 4802129 JP 2013-198223 A JP 2006-17456 A

  Problems to be solved by the present invention include a power load estimation device, a power load estimation system, and a power load estimation system capable of appropriately estimating the active power of a device to which power is supplied from the power system and estimating the deterioration state of the device, An object is to provide a power load estimation method and a power load estimation program.

  The power load estimation apparatus according to the embodiment includes a harmonic component calculation unit and an estimation unit. The harmonic component calculation unit calculates the harmonic component value of the active power of the device based on the electrical physical quantity of the power system that supplies power to the device. The estimation unit estimates the active power according to the degradation state of the device based on the calculated harmonic component value of the active power and the harmonic component value of the active power according to the degradation state of the device.

It is a figure which shows the 1st example of application of the electric power load estimation system in 1st Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the 1st example of a structure of the electric power load estimation system in 1st Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of a waveform of the electrical physical quantity in 1st Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the structural example of the harmonic component calculation part in 1st Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of the actual harmonic component calculation result in 1st Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of a relationship between the order of the harmonic component according to the 1st degradation state, and a harmonic content rate in 1st Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of a relationship between the order of the harmonic component according to the 2nd degradation state, and a harmonic content rate in 1st Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of a relationship between the order of the harmonic component according to the 3rd degradation state, and a harmonic content rate in 1st Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of a relationship between the order of the harmonic component according to the 4th degradation state, and a harmonic content rate in 1st Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the 1st example of the pattern which shows the relationship of the active power according to the degradation state in 1st Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the 2nd example of the pattern which shows the relationship of the active power according to the deterioration state in 1st Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the 3rd example of the pattern which shows the relationship of the active power according to the deterioration state in 1st Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the operation example of the electric power load estimation system in 1st Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the 2nd example of application of the electric power load estimation system in 3rd Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the 2nd example of a structure of the electric power load estimation system in 4th Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of a relationship between a degradation state and driving efficiency in 4th Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the 3rd example of a structure of the electric power load estimation system in 5th Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of application of the load control object determination part in 5th Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the 1st example of the relationship between an apparatus group and electric power load in 5th Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the 2nd example of the relationship between an apparatus group and electric power load in 5th Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the 1st example of operation | movement of the load control object determination part in 5th Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the 4th example of a structure of the electric power load estimation system in 6th Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the 2nd example of operation | movement of the load control object determination part in 6th Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the 5th example of a structure of the electric power load estimation system in 7th Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of the driving | running plan in 7th Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the operation example of the driving plan preparation part in 7th Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the 6th example of a structure of the electric power load estimation system in 8th Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of the driving | operation plan graph in 8th Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the 7th example of a structure of the electric power load estimation system in 9th Embodiment. It is a figure which shows the 2nd example of the driving | operation plan in 9th Embodiment.

Hereinafter, a power load estimation device, a power load estimation system, a power load estimation method, and a power load estimation program according to embodiments will be described with reference to the drawings.
(First embodiment)
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an application example of the power load estimation system 60a in the first embodiment. The power supply system 10 is a system that supplies power. The power supply system 10 includes a generator, a transmission / distribution network, a power supply / demand system, and the like. The power supply system 10 supplies power to the consumer 20.
The customer 20 includes a bus 30, a feeder 40, a measuring device 50, a power load estimation system 60 a, an electric system 70, a device 80, and a supply and demand control system 90. The customer 20 is, for example, a building, a hospital, a research facility, or a school.
The power supplied from the power supply system 10 is relayed by the bus 30 and supplied to the feeder 40.
The feeder 40 is a distribution line for supplying electric power. For the feeder 40, a power cable is often used. The feeder 40 supplies the power supplied from the bus 30 to the measuring device 50.

  The measuring device 50 is a device that measures an electrical physical quantity. The measuring device 50 measures the electrophysical quantity of the electric power supplied to the electric system 70 at at least one measurement point. For example, the measuring device 50 measures the electrical physical quantity of the feeder 40 electrically connected to the bus 30 as the electrical physical quantity of power supplied to the electrical system 70. The electrophysical quantity is, for example, a voltage value, a current value, or a power value. The measuring device 50 outputs information indicating the electrical physical quantity measured for the electrical system 70 (electrical physical quantity information) to the power load estimation system 60a.

  The power load estimation system 60a is realized by, for example, the cooperation of a computer as hardware and a program as software for estimating the effective power of the device 80. The power load estimation system 60a acquires the electrical physical quantity information from the measurement device 50. Based on the electrical physical quantity information, the power load estimation system 60a estimates the degradation state of the device 80 to which power is supplied from the electrical system 70 and the effective power (power consumption) of the device 80 according to the degradation state. The power load estimation system 60a outputs information indicating the deterioration state of the device 80 and information indicating the active power of the device 80 according to the deterioration state to the supply and demand control system 90 as a deterioration state estimation result. Details of the configuration of the power load estimation system 60a will be described later.

The electric system 70 is a power cable. The electric system 70 supplies the power supplied from the feeder 40 via the measuring device 50 to the device 80.
The device 80 is various devices. The device 80 is, for example, a lighting device or an air conditioning device. The device 80 becomes a power load in the electric system 70. One device 80 or a plurality of devices 80 may be used. Hereinafter, there are five devices 80 as an example. Hereinafter, the items common to the devices 80-1 to 80-5 are referred to as “device 80” by omitting a part of the reference numerals.
The supply and demand control system 90 performs supply and demand control such as peak cut and peak shift on the device 80 selected as the target of supply and demand control based on the degradation state estimation result.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the power load estimation system 60a in the first embodiment. The power load estimation system 60 a includes a power load estimation device 61 a and a deterioration state database 62. The power load estimation device 61a estimates the active power according to the degradation state of the device 80 based on the harmonic component value of the active power of the device 80 (hereinafter referred to as “degraded state harmonic component value”).

  The degradation state database 62 stores information indicating the harmonic content rate of the active power of the device 80 in association with the degradation state of the device 80 as a degradation state harmonic component value. The deterioration state database 62 is, for example, a hard disk drive (HDD) or a flash memory.

Details of the power load estimation device 61a will be described. The power load estimation device 61a includes a storage unit 600, a harmonic component calculation unit 610, an actually measured harmonic component storage unit 611, and an estimation unit 612a. The estimation unit 612a includes a deterioration state estimation unit 613. Some or all of the harmonic component calculation unit 610 and the estimation unit 612a are functioned when a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) executes a program stored in the storage unit 600, for example. Part. Some or all of these functional units may be hardware functional units such as LSI (Large Scale Integration) and ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit).
The storage unit 600 is a random access memory (RAM), a read only memory (ROM), a flash memory, a register, or the like.

The harmonic component calculation unit 610 performs a predetermined waveform analysis (described later) on the electrophysical quantity information acquired from the measurement device 50, and calculates the harmonic component value of the active power of the device 80.
The measured harmonic component storage unit 611 stores the calculation result of the harmonic component obtained by the harmonic component calculation unit 610 (hereinafter referred to as “measured harmonic component calculation result”).

  The deterioration state estimation unit 613 determines the deterioration state of the device 80 based on the actual harmonic component calculation result stored by the actual harmonic component storage unit 611 and the deterioration state harmonic component value acquired from the deterioration state database 62. The active power of the device 80 corresponding to the deterioration state is estimated. The deterioration state estimation unit 613 outputs information indicating the deterioration state of the device 80 and information indicating the active power of the device 80 according to the deterioration state to the supply and demand control system 90 as a deterioration state estimation result.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a waveform example of the electrical physical quantity in the first embodiment. FIG. 3 shows a voltage waveform V, a current waveform I, and a power waveform P as examples of electrophysical quantities. The horizontal axis indicates time. The vertical axis represents the electrophysical quantity. The instantaneous value p of electric power, the instantaneous value v of voltage, and the instantaneous value i of electric current have the relationship shown in Formula (1).

  As shown in Expression (1), the instantaneous value p of power can be calculated based on the instantaneous value v of voltage and the instantaneous value i of current as electrical physical quantities.

  FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the harmonic component calculation unit 610 in the first embodiment. The harmonic component calculation unit 610 calculates the harmonic component included in the instantaneous voltage value v and the current instantaneous value i as the electrical physical quantity for each order of the harmonic component based on the electrical physical quantity information. Any harmonic component among the instantaneous value p of electric power, the instantaneous value v of voltage, and the instantaneous value i of current can be calculated for each order of the harmonic component. Harmonic component calculation unit 610 outputs a measured harmonic component calculation result.

  The harmonics are represented as a collection of sine waves with different periods. When the order of the fundamental wave is the first order, the order of the sine wave whose period is 1 / n of the fundamental wave (frequency is n times) is the nth order. Fast Fourier transform (FFT) is known as a technique for calculating harmonic components for each order. When the harmonic component value is calculated from the measurement value that is the sampling value, the harmonic component can be calculated for each order by, for example, discrete Fourier transform. A fast Fourier transform is a method improved so as to solve the discrete Fourier transform at high speed. Hereinafter, description will be continued assuming that the harmonic component calculation unit 610 calculates a harmonic component for each order by fast Fourier transform as an example.

  In many electric power devices, it can be considered that the phases of voltage and current during operation are almost equal. Therefore, the power factor of each harmonic component can be approximated as “power factor = 1”. On the other hand, in an electrical device having a large phase difference between the voltage and current during operation, the harmonic component can be corrected as shown in Expression (1a).

  FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of a measured harmonic component calculation result in the first embodiment. The horizontal axis indicates the order of the harmonic component. The vertical axis represents the harmonic content [%]. FIG. 5 shows the harmonic content for each of the active power P and the voltage V. The harmonic content rate can be calculated for each order of the harmonic component as shown in Equation (2).

  6 to 9 will be described. 6 to 9, the horizontal axis represents the order of the harmonic component. The vertical axis represents the harmonic content. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating a relationship example between the order of the harmonic component according to the first deterioration state and the harmonic content rate in the first embodiment. FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating a relationship example between the order of the harmonic component according to the second deterioration state and the harmonic content rate in the first embodiment. FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating a relationship example between the order of the harmonic component according to the third deterioration state and the harmonic content rate in the first embodiment. FIG. 8 shows, for example, the harmonic content of harmonics generated in the air conditioning equipment. FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating a relationship example between the order of the harmonic component according to the fourth degradation state and the harmonic content rate in the first embodiment. FIG. 9 shows, for example, the harmonic content of harmonics generated in the lighting equipment. The deterioration state database 62 stores information indicating the harmonic content ratio of the active power of the device 80 in association with the deterioration state of the device 80.

  The deterioration state estimation unit 613 will be described. The harmonic content αi of the i-th order obtained from the equation (2), the active power PL according to the deterioration state of the device 80, and the harmonic of the i-th order (i-order) of the active power according to the deterioration state The magnitude of the wave PL_i has a relationship shown in Expression (3).

  If it is assumed that the active power corresponding to the degradation state of the device 80 has an Nth-order harmonic, the relationship shown in Equation (3) is expressed by Equation (4).

  The active power PLj corresponding to the j-th degradation state of the device 80 and the harmonic content αij of the i-th order (i-th order) have the relationship shown in Expression (5).

  For the first to Nth deterioration states, the relationship of the active power according to the deterioration state is determined by, for example, a designer or operator such as the power load system 60a in the past deterioration state. It is set on the basis of the measurement result of the corresponding active power.

  FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a first example of a pattern indicating a relationship of active power according to a deterioration state in the first embodiment. For the power passing through the measurement device 50 (measurement point), the active power P measured by the measurement device 50, the active power PL1 according to the first deterioration state (normal state) of the device 80, and the second deterioration state of the device 80 Active power PL2 according to (deterioration state “small”), active power PL3 according to the third deterioration state of device 80 (deterioration state “medium”), and fourth deterioration state of device 80 (deterioration state “high”) ) And the active power PL5 according to the fifth deterioration state (terminal deterioration state) of the device 80 have the relationship shown in Expression (6). In addition, as above-mentioned, the apparatus 80 in the consumer 20 may be one.

  When the relationship shown in Expression (6a) holds, it can be considered that the deterioration state is between the first deterioration state (normal state) and the second deterioration state (deterioration state “small”).

  Assuming that the active power P has an Nth-order harmonic component, the active power P and the i-th harmonic component Pi have the relationship shown in Expression (7).

  Further, between the i-order harmonic component Pi of the active power P and the i-order harmonic component PLi of the active power according to the deterioration state, the expressions (4), (5), and (7) Based on the above, there is a relationship shown in Expression (8).

  FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating a second example of the pattern indicating the relationship of the active power according to the deterioration state in the first embodiment. In FIG. 11, there are two types of patterns in which the state of the device 80 deteriorates, for example, a deterioration pattern PT1 and a deterioration pattern PT2. In FIG. 11, the active power of the device 80 includes effective power PL1 corresponding to the first deterioration state (normal state) of the device 80 and effective power corresponding to the second deterioration state (deterioration state “small”) of the deterioration pattern PT1. There are power PL2 and active power PL3 corresponding to the third deterioration state (deterioration state “large”) of deterioration pattern PT1. Further, in FIG. 11, the active power of the device 80 includes the active power PL4 corresponding to the second deterioration state (deterioration state “low”) of the deterioration pattern PT2 and the third deterioration state (deterioration state “high” of the deterioration pattern PT2). )) And the effective power PL5.

  FIG. 12 is a diagram illustrating a third example of the pattern indicating the relationship of the active power according to the deterioration state in the first embodiment. In FIG. 12, there are four types of patterns in which the state of the device 80 deteriorates, for example, a deterioration pattern PT1, a deterioration pattern PT2, a deterioration pattern PT3, and a deterioration pattern PT4. In FIG. 12, the active power of the device 80 includes effective power PL1 corresponding to the first deterioration state (normal state) of the device 80 and effective power corresponding to the second deterioration state (deterioration state “medium”) of the deterioration pattern PT1. Power PL2, active power PL3 according to the second deterioration state (deterioration state “medium”) of deterioration pattern PT2, and active power PL4 according to the second deterioration state (deterioration state “medium”) of deterioration pattern PT3; There is an active power PL5 corresponding to the second deterioration state (deterioration state “medium”) of the deterioration pattern PT4.

  When the formula (8) is collected for each order of the harmonic component, and up to five representative orders of the harmonic component are selected, the matrix equation shown in the formula (9) is obtained.

  Here, P (1) to P (5) are harmonic components of typical orders of the active power P. When the active powers PL1 to PL5 corresponding to the deterioration state are put together for the expression (9), the expression (10) is obtained.

  Here, αij is known. P (1) to P (5) are active power components P measured by the measuring device 50, and are harmonic components selected as harmonic components having characteristics. Active powers PL1 to PL5 corresponding to the deterioration state can be obtained from Expression (10).

  The deterioration state estimation unit 613 acquires the harmonic components P (1) to P (5) of the active power measured at the measurement point as the actual harmonic component calculation result. Degradation state estimation unit 613 outputs active powers PL1 to PL5 corresponding to the deterioration state based on equation (10).

  FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an operation example of the power load estimation system 60a according to the first embodiment. The deterioration state estimation unit 613 acquires the deterioration state harmonic component value stored in association with the deterioration state from the deterioration state database 62. The degradation state estimation unit 613 determines that the total value obtained by multiplying the degradation state harmonic component value for each degradation state by the active power of the device 80 is equal to the harmonic component of the active power at the measurement point. The active power corresponding to the deterioration state is calculated.

  The active power time-series data at the measurement points shown in FIG. 13 is, for example, the waveform data shown in FIG. The active power actual harmonic at the measurement point shown in FIG. 13 is, for example, the actual harmonic component calculation result shown in FIG. The harmonic pattern according to the deterioration state shown in FIG. 13 is, for example, an actual harmonic component calculation result shown in FIGS. For the first to Nth deterioration states, the harmonic pattern corresponding to the deterioration state is indicated by a column vector in the matrix [αij] shown in Expression (9).

Next, an example of selecting the harmonic order having characteristics will be described.
The harmonic component of active power shown in FIGS. 6 to 9 has a characteristic for each deterioration state. For example, the harmonic component of the active power having a relatively high harmonic content has a characteristic for each deterioration state. The first deterioration state shown in FIG. 6 is characterized by the order 5, the order 7, the order 11, the order 13, the order 17, and the order 19. For example, the third deterioration state shown in FIG. 8 is characterized by orders 3, 5, 5, 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, 15, 17, and 19. For example, the fourth deterioration state shown in FIG. 9 is characterized by orders 3, 5, 5, 7, 9, and 11.

  Degradation state estimation unit 613 selects a characteristic harmonic component order and calculates active powers PL1 to PL5 corresponding to the deterioration state based on equation (10). In the first deterioration state, for example, there are remarkable features in the 17th order and the 19th order. In the third deterioration state, for example, there are remarkable features in the third order and the fifteenth order. In the fourth deterioration state, for example, there are remarkable features in the third order, the fifth order, and the seventh order. Accordingly, among these orders, for example, when the third order, the fifth order, the seventh order, the 15th order, and the 17th order are selected, the expression (10) is expressed by the expression (11).

  The deterioration state estimation unit 613 acquires information indicating the harmonic components P3, P5, P7, P15, and P17 of the active power at the measurement point. Degradation state estimation unit 613 outputs active powers PL1, PL2, PL3, PL4, and PL5 corresponding to the deterioration state to supply and demand control system 90 as a deterioration state estimation result based on equation (11).

Next, a case where power loss is estimated will be described.
The degradation state estimation unit 613 estimates the power loss for each harmonic component, and corrects the estimation error of the active power according to the degradation state based on the estimated power loss. The i-th harmonic component Pi of the active power P and the power loss Plosij caused by the i-th harmonic component of the active power corresponding to the j-th degradation state shown in the equation (8) are expressed by the following equation (12): There is a relationship shown in Formula (13).

  Here, r represents a resistance value corresponding to the j-th degradation state of the device 80 to which power is supplied from the electrical system 70. QLij represents the i-order harmonic component of the reactive power according to the j-th degradation state. Vij represents the i-th harmonic component of the voltage according to the j-th degradation state. aij and bij are constants of approximate expressions for the i-order harmonic component of the active power according to the j-th degradation state. Therefore, when Expression (12) and Expression (13) considering the power loss of the harmonic component are substituted into Expression (9), Expression (14) is obtained.

  Summarizing the effective powers PL1 to PL5 corresponding to the deterioration state shown in Expression (14), Expression (15) is obtained.

  Here, γij is known. P1 to P5 indicate harmonic components of the active power P measured by the measuring device 50 at the measurement points. Active powers PL1 to PL5 corresponding to the deterioration state are obtained from Expression (15).

  The deterioration state estimation unit 613 acquires information indicating the harmonic components P1, P2, P3, P4, and P5 of the active power at the measurement point from the measured harmonic component storage unit 611. Degradation state estimation unit 613 outputs active powers PL1, PL2, PL3, PL4, and PL5 corresponding to the deterioration state to supply and demand control system 90 as a deterioration state estimation result based on equation (15).

  As described above, the power load estimation device 61a according to the first embodiment includes the harmonic component calculation unit 610 and the estimation unit 612a. The harmonic component calculation unit 610 calculates the harmonic component value of the active power of the device 80 based on the electrical physical quantity of the electrical system 70 that supplies power to the device 80. The estimation unit 612a estimates the active power according to the degradation state of the device 80 based on the calculated harmonic component value of the active power and the harmonic component value of the active power according to the degradation state of the device 80. .

  The power load estimation system 60 a according to the first embodiment includes a degradation state database 62 that stores a harmonic component value of active power of the device 80 in association with a degradation state of the device 80, and a power load estimation device 61. .

  A power load estimation method in the power load estimation device 61a according to the first embodiment, wherein the power load estimation method estimates the harmonic component value of the active power of the device 80, and estimates the deterioration state of the device 80. Including the step of. In the step of calculating the harmonic component value of the active power of the device 80, the harmonic component calculation unit 610 determines the harmonic component of the active power of the device 80 based on the electrical physical quantity of the electrical system 70 that supplies power to the device 80. Calculate the value. In the step of estimating the deterioration state of the device 80, the estimation unit 612a uses the calculated harmonic component value of the active power and the harmonic component value of the active power according to the deterioration state of the device 80 to determine the device 80. The active power corresponding to the deterioration state of the is estimated.

  The power load estimation program according to the first embodiment causes a computer to execute a procedure for calculating the harmonic component value of the active power of the device 80 and a procedure for estimating the deterioration state of the device 80. In the procedure of calculating the harmonic component value of the active power of the device 80, the computer calculates the harmonic component value of the active power of the device 80 based on the electrical physical quantity of the electrical system 70 that supplies power to the device 80. In the procedure for estimating the deterioration state of the device 80, the computer determines the deterioration of the device 80 based on the calculated harmonic component value of the active power and the harmonic component value of the active power corresponding to the deterioration state of the device 80. Estimate the active power according to the state.

  With this configuration, the estimation unit 612 has an effective power according to the degradation state of the device 80 based on the calculated harmonic component value of the active power and the harmonic component value of the active power according to the degradation state of the device 80. Estimate power.

  Conventional systems that estimate active power cannot estimate the degradation state of the device from the estimated active power. In contrast, the power load estimation device 61a, the power load estimation system 60a, the power load estimation method, and the power load estimation program according to the first embodiment not only estimate the active power but also estimate the deterioration state. The deterioration state can be estimated based on the harmonic component value of the voltage, the harmonic component value of the current, or the harmonic component value of the power. The effective power can be estimated based on the harmonic component value of the power.

  Thereby, the power load estimation device 61a, the power load estimation system 60a, the power load estimation method, and the power load estimation program according to the first embodiment appropriately set the effective power of the device 80 to which power is supplied from the electrical system 70. And the degradation state of the device can be estimated. For example, a power load estimation device 61a, a power load estimation system 60a, a power load estimation method, and a power load estimation program include a building having an EMS such as a BEMS (Building Energy Management System) linked to a commercial system (electric power company system). In the consumer 20, such as the consumer 20, it is possible to estimate the active power according to the degradation state of the device 80 of the customer 20, and to estimate the degradation state of the device. In addition, the power load estimation device 61 according to the first embodiment appropriately sets the effective power of the device 80 to which power is supplied from the electric system 70 even if the operation efficiency of the device 80 decreases with the deterioration of the device 80. Can be estimated.

  The power load estimation device 61a according to the first embodiment estimates the power load amount of the device 80 of the consumer 20 based on the harmonic component of power flowing through at least one measurement point in the consumer 20. Even when there are many devices 800 of the customer 20 or in a wide area, the power load amount and the deterioration state of each device 80 of the customer 20 can be monitored. The supply and demand control system 90 can execute peak cut, peak shift, and the like in consideration of a deterioration state and a decrease in operation efficiency due to deterioration as supply and demand control.

(Second Embodiment)
In the second embodiment, the method for estimating the active power according to the degradation state of the device 80 is different from the first embodiment. In the second embodiment, only differences from the first embodiment will be described.

  The harmonic component of the active power P at the measurement point and the harmonic component of the active power according to the deterioration state have the relationship shown in the equations (8) and (9). The matrix shown in Equation (9) is a square matrix, but in reality, the number of rows and the number of columns are often different. The measured harmonic vector shown on the left side of Equation (9), the degradation state harmonic vector that is a column vector in the matrix shown on the right side of Equation (9), the number m of harmonic components, The relationship with the number n is expressed by an approximate expression shown in Expression (16).

  This relationship can be expressed by Expression (17) using an actually measured harmonic approximate value vector that is a vector obtained from the right side of Expression (16).

  The degradation state estimation unit 613 estimates the degradation state of the device 80 so that the error between the actual measurement value represented by the actual harmonic vector and the actual harmonic approximation vector represented by Expression (17) is minimized. To do. In addition, the degradation state estimation unit 613 is effective in accordance with the degradation state based on a least square method that minimizes the sum of squares of differences between the elements of the actually measured harmonic vector and the elements of the actually measured harmonic approximate value vector. Calculate power.

  The total sum S of the squares of the difference between the measured harmonic vector element and the measured harmonic approximate value vector element is expressed by Expression (18).

Hereinafter, in the equations, the summation symbol is simplified and expressed as “Σ”.
In order to minimize the estimation error by the least square method, the degradation state estimation unit 613 partially differentiates the equation (18) with the active power corresponding to each degradation state, and the result of the partial differentiation becomes a value of 0. The active power corresponding to the deterioration state is calculated. When the equation (18) is partially differentiated with the active power corresponding to the j-th deterioration state, the equation (19) is obtained.

  When equation (19) is expanded, equation (20) is obtained.

  When the value of Expression (20) is set to 0 and Expression (19) based on the active power corresponding to each deterioration state is expressed in matrix form, Expression (21) is obtained.

  The matrix on the right side of Expression (21) is a symmetric matrix having Σαik × αij (k columns j rows or j columns k rows) and Σαij × αij (diagonal components of j columns j rows). The matrix on the right side of Equation (21) is a regular matrix (Non-Singular Matrix) when “the number of harmonic component orders ≧ the number of degraded states” holds, and the inverse matrix can be calculated. In this case, the active power corresponding to each deterioration state can be calculated by Expression (22).

  Degradation state estimation unit 613 outputs active powers PL1, PL2, PL3,..., PLn corresponding to the deterioration state as deterioration state estimation results based on equation (22).

As described above, the estimation unit 612a according to the second embodiment uses the calculated harmonic component value of the active power and the harmonic component value of the active power according to the degradation state of the device 80. The active power corresponding to the 80 degradation state is estimated.
Thereby, the power load estimation device 61a, the power load estimation system 60a, the power load estimation method, and the power load estimation program according to the second embodiment appropriately set the effective power of the device 80 to which power is supplied from the electric system 70. Can be estimated.

(Third embodiment)
In 3rd Embodiment, the point which estimates the deterioration state of the apparatus 80 for every kind of apparatus 80 differs from the 1st-2nd embodiment. In the third embodiment, only differences from the first and second embodiments will be described.

  FIG. 14 is a diagram illustrating an application example of the power load estimation system 60a in the third embodiment. In the third embodiment, the device 80 can be classified into a plurality of types. In the example illustrated in FIG. 14, the device 80-1 and the device 80-2 are classified as type A. The device 80-3 and the device 80-4 are classified into the type B. The device 80-5 is classified as type C. In this case, Formula (6) is represented by Formula (6b).

  Here, PLA_1 indicates active power corresponding to the deterioration state of the type A device 80-1. PLA_2 indicates active power corresponding to the deterioration state of the type A device 80-2. PLB_1 indicates active power corresponding to the deterioration state of the type B device 80-3. PLB_2 indicates active power according to the deterioration state of the type B device 80-4. PLC_1 indicates active power according to the deterioration state of the type C device 80-5. The active power PLA_1, the active power PLA_2, the active power PLB_1, the active power PLB_2, and the active power PLC_1 can be calculated based on the formula (10b) as in the development of the formulas (6) to (10). It is.

  Similarly, equation (15) is represented by equation (15b).

As described above, the estimation unit 612a according to the third embodiment estimates the deterioration state of the device 80 for each type of the device 80.
As a result, the power load estimation device 61a, the power load estimation system 60a, the power load estimation method, and the power load estimation program according to the third embodiment more effectively reduce the active power of the device 80 to which power is supplied from the electrical system 70. Can be estimated appropriately.

(Fourth embodiment)
In 4th Embodiment, the point which the estimation part 612b estimates the whole driving efficiency about the some apparatus 80 based on the information which shows the relationship between the deterioration state of the apparatus 80 and the operating efficiency of the apparatus 80 is 1st. To the third embodiment. In the fourth embodiment, only differences from the first to third embodiments will be described.

  FIG. 15 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the power load estimation system 60b according to the fourth embodiment. The power load estimation system 60b includes a power load estimation device 61b, a deterioration state database 62, and a deterioration state operation efficiency database 63. In addition, the estimation unit 612b includes a deterioration state estimation unit 613 and an overall efficiency estimation unit 614.

  The deterioration state operation efficiency database 63 stores information indicating the operation efficiency of the device 80 in association with the deterioration state. The overall efficiency estimation unit 614 estimates the overall operation efficiency of the plurality of devices 80 based on information indicating the operation efficiency according to the deterioration state of the device 80. The overall efficiency estimation unit 614 outputs information indicating the estimated overall operation efficiency to the supply and demand control system 90 as an overall efficiency estimation result.

  FIG. 16 is a diagram illustrating a relationship example between the deterioration state and the operation efficiency in the fourth embodiment. The operating efficiency of the device 80 decreases according to the degree of deterioration indicating the progress of the deterioration state of the device 80. In FIG. 16, the degree of deterioration indicates that the deterioration state progresses as the value thereof increases. In addition, the numerical value and curve which show the operation efficiency shown in FIG. 16 are examples, and differ with kinds etc. of the apparatus 80.

In the fourth embodiment, as an example, the active power PL1 according to the first deterioration state of the device 80, the active power PL2 according to the second deterioration state of the device 80, and the third deterioration state of the device 80 are determined. The case where the deterioration state estimation unit 613 calculates the active power PL3, the active power PL4 according to the fourth deterioration state of the device 80, and the active power PL5 according to the fifth deterioration state of the device 80 will be described.
The overall operation efficiency γ is expressed by Expression (23).

Here, γ1 indicates the operation efficiency according to the first deterioration state. γ2 indicates the operation efficiency according to the second deterioration state. γ3 indicates the operation efficiency according to the third deterioration state. γ4 indicates the operation efficiency according to the fourth deterioration state. γ5 indicates the operation efficiency according to the fifth deterioration state. The operating efficiencies γ1 to γ5 are stored in the deteriorated state operating efficiency database 63 as information indicating the operating efficiency (operating efficiency for each deteriorated state) according to the deteriorated state of the device 80.
When the deterioration state from the first deterioration state to the n-th deterioration state is determined, Expression (23) is expressed by Expression (24).

  Based on the information indicating the active power of the device 80 according to the deterioration state and the information indicating the operation efficiency according to the deterioration state of the device 80, the overall efficiency estimation unit 614 (Hereinafter, referred to as “total efficiency estimation result”) is output to the supply and demand control system 90.

As described above, the estimation unit 612b according to the fourth embodiment uses a plurality of devices 80-1 to 80-E based on information indicating the relationship between the deterioration state of the device 80 and the operation efficiency of the device 80. Estimate overall operating efficiency.
Thereby, the estimation part 612b which concerns on 4th Embodiment can estimate the whole driving efficiency about the some apparatus 80. FIG.

(Fifth embodiment)
In the fifth embodiment, when determining a device 80 to be subjected to load control in supply and demand control, the fourth embodiment is that the device 80 having relatively low operating efficiency is given priority as a load control target. It differs from the form. In the fifth embodiment, only differences from the fourth embodiment will be described.

  FIG. 17 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of a power load estimation system 60c in the fifth embodiment. The power load estimation device 61c includes a storage unit 600, a harmonic component calculation unit 610, an actually measured harmonic component storage unit 611, an estimation unit 612b, and a load control target determination unit 615. The load control target determination unit 615 outputs load control target information indicating the device 80 to be subjected to load control in the supply and demand control to the supply and demand control system 90 based on the overall efficiency estimation result.

  FIG. 18 is a diagram illustrating an application example of the load control target determination unit 615 according to the fifth embodiment. The device 80 is classified into a group. In FIG. 15, the device 80 is classified into one of the device group G1 to the device group G4 as an example.

  The measuring device 50-1 measures the electrophysical quantity of the electric system 70-1 that supplies power to the devices 80-1-1-1 to 80-1-5 classified into the device group G1. The measuring device 50-1 outputs information indicating the electrical physical quantity of the electrical system 70-1 to the power load estimation system 60c. The measuring device 50-2 measures the electrical physical quantity of the electrical system 70-2 that supplies power to the devices 80-2-1 to 80-2-E2 classified into the device group G2. The measuring device 50-2 outputs information indicating the electrical physical quantity of the electrical system 70-2 to the power load estimation system 60c.

  The measuring device 50-3 measures the electrical physical quantity of the electrical system 70-3 that supplies power to the devices 80-3-1 to 80-3-5 classified in the device group G3. The measuring device 50-3 outputs information indicating the electrical physical quantity of the electrical system 70-3 to the power load estimation system 60c. The measuring device 50-4 measures the electrical physical quantity of the electrical system 70-4 that supplies power to the devices 80-4-4-1 to 80-4-5 classified into the device group G4. The measuring device 50-4 outputs information indicating the electrical physical quantity of the electrical system 70-4 to the power load estimation system 60c.

  The overall efficiency estimation unit 614 of the power load estimation system 60 calculates the overall operation efficiency for the plurality of devices 80 for each device group. For example, the overall efficiency estimation unit 614 estimates the overall operation efficiency of the device group G1 based on information indicating the operation efficiency according to the deterioration state of the devices 80-1-1-1 to 80-1-5. The same applies to the device groups G2 to G4. The overall efficiency estimation unit 614 outputs information indicating the overall operation efficiency of the device groups G1 to G4 to the supply and demand control system 90 as an overall efficiency estimation result.

  FIG. 19 is a diagram illustrating a first example of a relationship between a device group and a power load amount in the fifth embodiment. The horizontal axis indicates the device group. The vertical axis shows the power load and the operating efficiency [%]. The load control target determination unit 615 selects a device 80 to be subjected to load control in the supply and demand control based on the overall efficiency estimation result. Here, the load control target determination unit 615 selects a device 80 of a device group having a power load amount equal to or greater than the target load control amount when load control equal to or greater than the target load control amount is required.

  In the example illustrated in FIG. 19, all device groups among the device groups G1 to G4 are applicable as device groups having a power load amount equal to or greater than the target load control amount. For this reason, the load control target determination unit 615 further selects a device group having the lowest operation efficiency from the applicable device groups G1 to G4. In the example illustrated in FIG. 19, the load control target determination unit 615 outputs load control target information indicating the device 80 of the device group G4 to be subjected to load control in the supply / demand control to the supply / demand control system 90. Note that the load control target determination unit 615 may output load control target information indicating the devices 80 of a plurality of device groups to be subjected to load control in the supply / demand control to the supply / demand control system 90.

  FIG. 20 is a diagram illustrating a second example of the relationship between the device group and the power load amount in the fifth embodiment. The horizontal axis indicates the device group. The vertical axis shows the power load and the operating efficiency [%]. In the example illustrated in FIG. 20, the power load amount is different for each device group. Further, an upper limit of the target load control amount (target control amount upper limit) and a lower limit of the target load control amount (target control amount lower limit) are defined.

The load control target determination unit 615 selects a device group or a combination of device groups (hereinafter referred to as “device group etc.”) such that the power load amount falls between the target control amount upper limit and the target control amount lower limit. . The load control target determination unit 615 selects a device group or the like in consideration of the operation efficiency of the device 80 for which the supply and demand control system 90 performs load control.
The power loss amount of the device group is expressed by Expression (25).

  FIG. 21 is a diagram illustrating a first example of the operation of the load control target determination unit 615 in the fifth embodiment. The load control target determination unit 615 selects a device group or the like so that the power load amount falls between the target control amount upper limit and the target control amount lower limit. The load control target determination unit 615 calculates the sum of the power loss amounts of the selected device group or the like. The load control target determination unit 615 selects a device group or the like that maximizes the sum of the power loss amounts of the device groups from the selected device group or the like. The load control target determination unit 615 outputs information indicating the selected device group and the like to the supply and demand control system 90.

  As described above, the power load estimation device 61 according to the fifth embodiment gives priority to the device 80 with relatively low operating efficiency when determining the device 80 to be subjected to load control in supply and demand control. A load control target determining unit 615 that determines a control target is further provided.

(Sixth embodiment)
In 6th Embodiment, the point by which the load control object determination part 615 determines the apparatus 80 made into the object of load control based on the information which shows the damage which generate | occur | produces when load control is performed, and driving efficiency, This is different from the fifth embodiment. In the sixth embodiment, only differences from the fifth embodiment will be described.

  FIG. 22 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of a power load estimation system 60d according to the sixth embodiment. The power load estimation system 60d includes a power load estimation device 61c, a deterioration state database 62, a deterioration state operation efficiency database 63, and a load control loss amount database 64. The load control damage amount database 64 stores information indicating damage that occurs when load control is executed for each device 80 or each device group. Information indicating damage that occurs when load control is executed is, for example, information indicating the amount of load control damage.

  The load control target determination unit 615 outputs information indicating the selected device group or the like to the supply / demand control system 90 in consideration of damage that occurs when the supply / demand control system 90 executes load control. For example, the load control target determination unit 615 acquires information indicating the load control loss amount from the load control loss amount database 64. The load control target determination unit 615 outputs information indicating the selected device group or the like to the supply and demand control system 90 based on the overall efficiency estimation result acquired from the overall efficiency estimation unit 614 and the load control damage amount.

  The amount of power loss of the equipment group can be converted into the amount of power loss. The power loss amount of the device group is expressed by Expression (26) using the power loss amount conversion coefficient.

  When the supply and demand control system 90 executes load control, damage may occur depending on the device 80. For example, if the device 80 is manufacturing a predetermined product, damage may occur that the product is manufactured as a defective product due to side effects due to load control. The load control damage amount database 64 stores in advance information (load control loss amount) indicating damage due to load control for each device 80 or each device group.

  FIG. 23 is a diagram illustrating a second example of the operation of the load control target determination unit 615 in the sixth embodiment. The load control target determination unit 615 selects a device group or the like so that the power load amount falls between the target control amount upper limit and the target control amount lower limit. The load control target determination unit 615 calculates the sum of the power loss amounts of the selected device group or the like. The load control target determination unit 615 selects a device group or the like that has the maximum amount obtained by subtracting the sum of the load control damage amounts of the device group from the sum of the power loss amounts of the device groups. That is, the load control target determination unit 615 preferentially selects a device group or the like having a relatively low load control damage amount, that is, a device group or the like having the maximum left side of Expression (27).

As described above, the load control target determination unit 615 according to the sixth embodiment performs load control based on information (for example, the amount of damage) indicating damage that occurs when load control is executed and driving efficiency. The target device 80 is determined.
Accordingly, the power load estimation device 61c, the power load estimation system 60d, the power load estimation method, and the power load estimation program according to the sixth embodiment appropriately set the effective power of the device 80 to which power is supplied from the electrical system 70. Can be estimated.

(Seventh embodiment)
In the seventh embodiment, the power load estimation device 61 further includes an operation plan creation unit that creates an operation plan that preferentially operates the device 80 with relatively high operation efficiency among the devices 80 subject to load control. The point provided is different from the sixth embodiment. In the seventh embodiment, only differences from the sixth embodiment will be described.

  FIG. 24 is a diagram illustrating a fifth example of the configuration of the power load estimation system 60e in the seventh embodiment. The power load estimation system 60e includes a power load estimation device 61d, a deterioration state database 62, a deterioration state operation efficiency database 63, and an overall efficiency estimation result database 65. The overall efficiency estimation result database 65 acquires information indicating the overall efficiency estimation result from the overall efficiency estimation unit 614 and stores it. The overall efficiency estimation result database 65 acquires information indicating the degradation state estimation result from the degradation state estimation unit 613 and stores it.

  The power load estimation device 61d includes a storage unit 600, a harmonic component calculation unit 610, an actually measured harmonic component storage unit 611, an estimation unit 612, and an operation plan creation unit 616. The operation plan creation unit 616 acquires the overall efficiency estimation result and the deterioration state estimation result from the overall efficiency estimation result database 65 or the estimation unit 612. The operation plan creation unit 616 outputs operation plan information based on the overall efficiency estimation result and the deterioration state estimation result.

  FIG. 25 is a diagram illustrating an example of an operation plan in the seventh embodiment. The horizontal axis indicates time. The vertical axis represents the power load. In the example illustrated in FIG. 25, the operation plan creation unit 616 selects the device groups G1 to G3 so that the power load amount falls between the target operation plan upper limit and the target operation plan lower limit in at least a part of the period T1. To do. The operation plan creation unit 616 outputs information indicating the device groups G1 to G3 as operation plan information.

  In addition, the operation plan creation unit 616 selects the device groups G1 to G4 so that the power load amount falls between the target operation plan upper limit and the target operation plan lower limit in at least a part of the period T2. The operation plan creation unit 616 outputs information indicating the device groups G1 to G4 as operation plan information. Further, the operation plan creation unit 616 selects the device groups G1 and G2 so that the power load amount falls between the target operation plan upper limit and the target operation plan lower limit in at least a part of the period T3. The operation plan creation unit 616 outputs information indicating the device groups G1 and G2 as operation plan information.

  FIG. 26 is a diagram illustrating an operation example of the operation plan creation unit 616 in the seventh embodiment. The operation plan creation unit 616 selects a device group or the like so that the power load amount falls between the target operation plan upper limit and the target operation plan lower limit. The operation plan creation unit 616 calculates the sum (total amount) of the power loss amount of the selected device group or the like. The operation plan creation unit 616 selects a device group or the like that minimizes the sum of the power loss amounts of the device groups. The selected device 80 such as a device group is operated according to the operation plan.

As described above, the power load estimation device 61d according to the seventh embodiment creates an operation plan that preferentially operates the device 80 with relatively high operation efficiency among the devices 80 to be subjected to load control. An operation plan creation unit 616 is further provided.
Accordingly, the power load estimation device 61d, the power load estimation system 60e, the power load estimation method, and the power load estimation program according to the seventh embodiment can appropriately create an operation plan for the device 80.

(Eighth embodiment)
The eighth embodiment is different from the seventh embodiment in that the power load estimation device 61 further includes an operation plan graph creation unit that creates a graph indicating an operation plan. In the eighth embodiment, only differences from the seventh embodiment will be described.

  FIG. 27 is a diagram illustrating a sixth example of the configuration of the power load estimation system 60f according to the eighth embodiment. The power load estimation device 61e includes a storage unit 600, a harmonic component calculation unit 610, an actually measured harmonic component storage unit 611, an estimation unit 612, an operation plan creation unit 616, and an operation plan graph creation unit 617. .

  FIG. 28 is a diagram illustrating an example of an operation plan graph according to the eighth embodiment. The horizontal axis indicates time. The vertical axis represents the power load. The operation plan graph creation unit 617 creates an operation plan graph based on the operation plan created by the operation plan creation unit 616. The operation plan graph creation unit 617 outputs the operation plan graph information to the supply and demand control system 90. The operation plan graph information is displayed on the screen of the display device, for example.

As described above, the power load estimation device 61e according to the eighth embodiment further includes the operation plan graph creation unit 617 that creates a graph (operation plan graph) indicating the operation plan.
Thereby, the power load estimation device 61e according to the eighth embodiment can display the operation plan graph.

(Ninth embodiment)
The ninth embodiment is different from the seventh embodiment in that the operation plan creation unit 616 creates an operation plan for operating the device 80 every time based on the operation efficiency of the device 80. In the ninth embodiment, only differences from the seventh embodiment will be described.

  FIG. 29 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of a power load estimation system 60g according to the ninth embodiment. The power load estimation device 61f includes a storage unit 600, a harmonic component calculation unit 610, an actually measured harmonic component storage unit 611, an estimation unit 612, a load control target determination unit 615, and an operation plan creation unit 616. . The load control target determination unit 615 outputs load control target information indicating the device 80 to be subjected to load control in the supply and demand control to the supply and demand control system 90 based on the overall efficiency estimation result. The operation plan creation unit 616 outputs operation plan information based on the overall efficiency estimation result and the deterioration state estimation result.

  FIG. 30 is a diagram illustrating a second example of the operation plan in the ninth embodiment. The horizontal axis indicates time. The vertical axis represents the power load. The load control target determination unit 615 outputs load control target information indicating the device 80 to be subjected to load control in the supply / demand control to the operation plan creation unit 616 and the supply / demand control system 90. Based on the overall efficiency estimation result, the degradation state estimation result, and the load control target information, the operation plan creation unit 616 selects the device 80 or the device group to be subjected to load control to be operated at an arbitrary time, Operation plan information for operating the selected device 80 or device group at an arbitrary time is output.

  The operation plan creation unit 616 selects the device group G3 so that the power load amount falls between the target operation plan upper limit and the target operation plan lower limit in the period T1 and the period T2. The operation plan creation unit 616 outputs information indicating the device group G3 in association with time information as operation plan information. The operation plan creation unit 616 selects the device group G2 so that the amount of power load falls between the target operation plan upper limit and the target operation plan lower limit in the period T3. The operation plan creation unit 616 outputs information indicating the device group G2 in association with time information as operation plan information.

As described above, the operation plan creation unit 616 according to the ninth embodiment creates an operation plan for operating the device 80 for each time based on the operation efficiency of the device 80.
Thereby, the operation plan preparation part 616 which concerns on 9th Embodiment can create the operation plan from which the time to drive differs for every apparatus 80 or every apparatus group.

  According to the power load estimation device of at least one embodiment described above, based on the calculated harmonic component value of active power and the harmonic component value of active power according to the degradation state of the device 80, the device By having the estimation unit 612 that estimates the active power according to the 80 degradation state, it is possible to appropriately estimate the active power of the device 80 to which power is supplied from the electrical system 70 and to estimate the degradation state of the device. it can.

  As mentioned above, although some embodiment of this invention was described, these embodiment is shown as an example and is not intending limiting the range of invention. These embodiments can be implemented in various other forms, and various omissions, replacements, and changes can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included in the scope and gist of the invention, and are also included in the invention described in the claims and the equivalents thereof.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 ... Electric power supply system, 20 ... Consumer, 30 ... Bus, 40 ... Feeder, 50 ... Measuring apparatus, 60 ... Electric power load estimation system, 61 ... Electric power load estimation apparatus, 62 ... Degraded state database, 63 ... Degraded state operation efficiency Database, 64 ... Load control damage amount database, 65 ... Overall efficiency estimation result database, 70 ... Electrical system, 80 ... Equipment, 90 ... Supply / demand control system, 600 ... Storage unit, 610 ... Harmonic component calculation unit, 611 ... Actual harmonics Wave component storage unit, 612 ... estimation unit, 613 ... deterioration state estimation unit, 614 ... overall efficiency estimation unit, 615 ... load control target determination unit, 616 ... operation plan creation unit, 617 ... operation plan graph creation unit, 6101 ... FFT Processing unit, G1 to GH ... device group

Claims (11)

Based on the electrophysical quantity of the power system that supplies power to the device, a harmonic component calculation unit that calculates the harmonic component value of the active power of the device;
Based on the calculated harmonic component value of the active power and the harmonic component value of the active power set in advance according to the degradation state of the device, the active power according to the degradation state of the device is estimated. An estimator to
A power load estimation device comprising:   The power load estimation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the estimation unit estimates active power corresponding to a deterioration state of the device for each type of the device.   The estimation unit according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the estimation unit estimates overall operation efficiency for a plurality of the devices based on information indicating a relationship between a deterioration state of the device and an operation efficiency of the device. Electric power load estimation device. The load control object determination part which prioritizes the apparatus with relatively low operation efficiency when determining the apparatus to be subjected to load control in supply and demand control, and determines the load control object. 4. The power load estimation device according to 3.   The load control target determination unit determines the device to be subjected to the load control based on information indicating damage that occurs when the load control is executed and the operation efficiency. Power load estimation device. The operation plan creation unit for creating an operation plan for preferentially operating the device having the relatively high operation efficiency among the devices to be subjected to the load control. Power load estimation device. The power load estimation apparatus according to claim 6, further comprising: an operation plan graph creation unit that creates a graph indicating the operation plan.   The power load estimation device according to claim 6 or 7, wherein the operation plan creation unit creates an operation plan for operating the device for each time based on the operation efficiency of the device. A database that stores the harmonic component value of the device in association with the deterioration state of the device;
The power load estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 8,
A power load estimation system comprising: A power load estimation method in a power load estimation device, comprising:
A step of calculating a harmonic component value of the active power of the device based on an electrophysical quantity of an electric power system in which the harmonic component calculating unit supplies power to the device;
Based on the calculated harmonic component value of the active power and the harmonic component value of the active power set in advance according to the degradation state of the device, the estimation unit responds to the degradation state of the device. Estimating the active power;
A power load estimation method including: On the computer,
A procedure for calculating a harmonic component value of the active power of the device based on an electrophysical quantity of a power system that supplies power to the device;
Based on the calculated harmonic component value of the active power and the harmonic component value of the active power set in advance according to the degradation state of the device, the active power according to the degradation state of the device is estimated. And the steps to
A power load estimation program for executing.

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