JP5779417B2 - Operation management apparatus, operation management method, and operation management program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to an operation management device, an operation management method, and an operation management program.

  In the future, with the spread of distributed power sources such as PV (Photovoltaic power generation) to consumers, there is concern about the impact on power quality due to the large number of distributed power sources connected to the distribution system. ing. In response to this concern, not only control from the grid side using a loop controller or grid operation management system, but also a certain amount of countermeasures on the part of the customer makes it possible to integrate supply and demand in consideration of overall grid operation and responsiveness. Operation control of the system has been proposed.

  In this supply-demand integrated operation control, it has been proposed on the customer side to perform operation control of a load device such as a heat pump type hot water heater using, for example, a supply-demand interface. For example, on the customer side, control is performed by determining an operation pattern such as operating the heat pump water heater during the solar light output suppression time zone of the heat pump water heater by the supply and demand interface. Thus, if the operation of a load device such as a heat pump water heater can be shifted to the output suppression time zone on the consumer side, it is possible to avoid the suppression of the power generation output due to reverse power flow in the consumer, and the influence on the power quality can be reduced. there is a possibility.

  However, household power demand and hot water supply demand vary greatly from day to day, and the output of solar power generation also fluctuates, so it is difficult for consumers to determine the operating pattern of load equipment such as heat pump water heaters. . Therefore, an operation plan of a heat pump type hot water heater has been proposed in which the reverse power flow is equal to or less than a predetermined allowable value in accordance with the output prediction of solar power generation. In this operation plan, hot water demand and electric power demand at each time are predicted, and the amount of hot water generated by the heat pump hot water heater at each time is determined based on the predicted value.

Masahiro Asari, Kenichi Tokoro “Solar Power Generation Reverse Suppression Control Using Interconnection Control with Consumer Equipment”, Central Research Institute Electric Power Research Institute Report: R08025, [online], August 2010, [April 1, 2011 Search], Internet <http://criepi.denken.or.jp/jp/kenkikaku/report/detail/R08025.html>

  By the way, the above-mentioned hot water supply demand and the like are highly uncertain, so it is difficult to make an accurate prediction. For this reason, in the above-mentioned operation plan, there are days when the actual demand at the customer is less than predicted, and even though a sufficient amount of hot water remains in the tank of the water heater, additional hot water is added. There may be waste. That is, in the above-described operation plan, there is a problem that it is difficult to realize economical operation of the heat pump type water heater.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above, and an operation management device, an operation management method, and an operation capable of realizing an economical operation of a heat pump water heater while taking into consideration the influence on power quality The purpose is to provide a management program.

In order to solve the above-described problems and achieve the object, the present invention is an operation management apparatus for managing the operation of a hot water heater, and the past results of hot water consumption consumed from a predetermined start time to each time The data is represented by a gamma distribution, a first parameter of the distribution of actual power demand data is calculated, and a predicted cumulative amount of hot water consumption consumed by the same time as the subsequent time is calculated based on the first parameter. The hot water supply demand prediction unit to calculate, the past data of actual power demand consumed by each time is represented by a gamma distribution, the second parameter of the distribution of the actual power demand data is calculated, and the second parameter is power demand prediction unit for calculating a predicted accumulative amount of power demand to be consumed until subsequent each time the same time based on the predicted cumulative amount of hot water demand calculated by the hot-water demand prediction unit, and the power demand A heat storage amount calculation unit that calculates a heat storage amount of the water heater to be maintained at each time based on a predicted cumulative amount of power demand calculated by the measurement unit, and the heat storage calculated by the heat storage amount calculation unit And an operation control unit that controls the operation of the water heater so that the amount is maintained.

  According to the present invention, economical operation of a heat pump type hot water heater can be realized.

FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a power distribution system according to the first embodiment. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of equipment installed in a consumer according to the first embodiment. FIG. 3 is a functional block diagram illustrating the configuration of the operation management apparatus according to the first embodiment. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of a distribution of a cumulative amount of hot water supply demand according to the first embodiment. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of a water heater operation control method by the operation management apparatus according to the first embodiment. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating a flow of processing by the operation management apparatus according to the first embodiment. FIG. 7 is a diagram showing a time-series change in average hot water supply demand. FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating a time-series change in average power demand. FIG. 9 is a comparison diagram of the electricity cost of the customer X according to the conventional method and the electricity cost of the customer X according to the control method according to the first embodiment. FIG. 10 is a comparison diagram of the electricity cost of the customer Y according to the conventional method and the electricity cost of the customer Y according to the control method according to the first embodiment. FIG. 11 is a comparison diagram of the electricity cost of the customer Z according to the conventional method and the electricity cost of the customer Z according to the control method according to the first embodiment. FIG. 12 is a comparison diagram of the suppression amount at the customer X according to the conventional method and the suppression amount at the customer X according to the control method according to the first embodiment. FIG. 13 is a comparison diagram of the suppression amount in the customer Y by the conventional method and the suppression amount in the customer Y by the control method according to the first embodiment. FIG. 14 is a comparison diagram of the amount of suppression at the customer Z according to the conventional method and the amount of suppression at the customer Z according to the control method according to the first embodiment. FIG. 15: is a figure which shows the comparison list of the control result of the heat pump type water heater by the operation management apparatus which concerns on Example 1, and the control result of the heat pump type hot water heater by the conventional control method. FIG. 16 is a diagram illustrating an example of an electronic device that executes an operation management program.

  Hereinafter, an embodiment of an operation management device, an operation management method, and an operation management program disclosed in the present application will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. Each example described below is merely an embodiment, and does not limit the operation management device, the operation management method, and the operation management program disclosed in the present application. In addition, the embodiments described later can be appropriately combined within a range that does not cause a contradiction in the processing contents.

[Outline and Features (Example 1)]
The operation management device disclosed in the present application is summarized as managing the operation of a water heater of a heat pump type (hereinafter referred to as HP type as appropriate). In particular, this operation management device is an HP water heater whose reverse power flow is less than a predetermined allowable value in accordance with output prediction by photovoltaic power generation (PV: Photovoltaic power generation, hereinafter referred to as PV as appropriate). The outline is to carry out economical driving. And the operation management apparatus which this application discloses has the characteristic in the point demonstrated below.

  That is, the operation management device disclosed in the present application is based on, for example, a predicted accumulated value of hot water supply demand and power demand up to each time with 24 hours divided into one hour, and a predicted value of PV output at each time. The amount of heat stored in the HP water heater is calculated. The operation management device disclosed in the present application controls the operation of the HP water heater so that the calculated heat storage amount is maintained.

  Conventionally, hot water supply demand and power demand for each time have been predicted, but the dispersion of predicted values is large, and it is difficult to realize economical operation of the HP water heater. On the other hand, the operation management device disclosed in the present application predicts a cumulative value of demand until reaching each time for each hot water demand or power demand. Thereby, the operation management device disclosed in the present application can suppress dispersion of values predicted for hot water supply demand and electric power demand, and can accurately calculate the amount of heat stored in the HP water heater at each time. it can. The operation management device disclosed in the present application controls the operation of the HP water heater so that the amount of stored heat is maintained, and as a result, economical operation of the HP water heater can be realized.

[Configuration of Example 1]
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a power distribution system according to the first embodiment. As shown in FIG. 1, a distribution substation 1 and each customer (household) 3 are interconnected via a distribution line 2. Each consumer (household) 3 is provided with facilities for PV. Even when a loop controller is installed in the power distribution system, the first embodiment described below can be similarly applied.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of equipment installed in a consumer according to the first embodiment. As shown in FIG. 2, the consumer 3 is provided with a solar power generation device 5, a storage battery 6, a heat pump type hot water heater 7, load devices 8, and an interface 9. The solar power generation device 5 is a device that includes a predetermined solar cell module, a power conditioner, a distribution board, a watt hour meter, and the like, and supplies electricity generated by receiving sunlight to the consumer 3 and the like. The storage battery 6 is a device that stores electricity generated by the solar power generation device 5.

  The heat pump type hot water heater 7 (hereinafter referred to as “hot water heater 7” as appropriate) is an apparatus that generates hot water using electric power generated by the solar power generation device 5 or system power supplied from a distribution line. . The hot water heater 7 has a hot water storage tank for storing the generated hot water, and thermoelectric power for estimating the amount of heat stored in the hot water storage tank (the amount of heat generated by the stored hot water) at various locations such as the bottom and the side of the hot water storage tank. Pairs are installed. The load devices 8 include power generated by the solar power generation device 5 other than the water heater 7 such as a refrigerator, a washing machine, lighting, a television, and an IH (Induction Heating) cooking heater, or system power supplied from a distribution line. It is the equipment in the consumer 3 to use. The interface 9 is a relay device used by the operation management device 100 described later, and is used, for example, for controlling the operation of the hot water heater 7 installed in the consumer 3.

  FIG. 3 is a functional block diagram illustrating the configuration of the operation management apparatus according to the first embodiment. In the following description, for example, the water heater 7 on the next day is based on the predicted cumulative amount of hot water demand and power demand predicted until the operation management device reaches each time and the predicted PV output value at each time. The case of controlling the operation will be described. As illustrated in FIG. 3, the operation management apparatus 100 includes a hot water supply demand record acquisition unit 101, a hot water supply demand record data storage unit 102, and a hot water supply demand cumulative prediction amount calculation unit 103. As illustrated in FIG. 3, the operation management apparatus 100 includes a power demand record acquisition unit 104, a power demand record data storage unit 105, and a power demand cumulative prediction amount calculation unit 106. As illustrated in FIG. 3, the operation management apparatus 100 includes a power generation output result acquisition unit 107, a power generation output result data storage unit 108, a weather information acquisition unit 109, and a power generation output predicted value calculation unit 110. As shown in FIG. 3, the operation management apparatus 100 includes an electricity price acquisition unit 111, an optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112, and a water heater operation control unit 113.

  The hot water supply demand result data storage unit 102, the power demand result data storage unit 105, and the power generation output result data storage unit 108 use, for example, semiconductor memory elements such as a RAM (Random Access Memory) and a flash memory. Can be implemented.

  The hot water supply demand record acquisition unit 101, the hot water supply demand cumulative prediction amount calculation unit 103, the power demand record acquisition unit 104, and the power demand cumulative prediction amount calculation unit 106 can be implemented by, for example, an electronic circuit or an integrated circuit. Similarly, the power generation output result acquisition unit 107, the weather information acquisition unit 109, and the power generation output predicted value calculation unit 110 can be implemented by, for example, an electronic circuit or an integrated circuit. Similarly, the electricity price acquisition unit 111, the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112, and the water heater operation control unit 113 can be implemented by, for example, an electronic circuit or an integrated circuit. Examples of the electronic circuit described above include a CPU (Central Processing Unit) and an MPU (Micro Processing Unit). Examples of the integrated circuit described above include ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) and FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array).

  The hot water supply demand record acquisition unit 101 is consumed by the customer 3 at every hour every hour (hereinafter referred to as each time as appropriate) from midnight to midnight on the next day, for example. The amount of hot water is acquired as actual data of hot water supply demand. For example, the hot water supply demand record acquisition unit 101 acquires the data on the amount of hot water supplied by the hot water heater 7 as the actual data of the hot water supply demand via the interface 9. Moreover, the hot water supply demand result acquisition part 101 will store the acquired data in association with the acquisition date and time in the hot water supply demand result data storage part 102 each time it acquires the actual data of the hot water supply demand. The hot water supply demand record acquisition unit 101 may overwrite and update the record data stored in the hot water supply demand record data storage unit 102 every time the hot water supply demand record data is acquired, You may store with data as it is. The hot water supply demand result data storage unit 102 stores the hot water supply demand result data acquired by the hot water supply demand result acquisition unit 101 for each time.

  Hot water supply demand cumulative predicted amount calculation unit 103 calculates the predicted cumulative amount of hot water supply demand until each time of the next day, using the actual data of hot water supply demand stored in hot water supply demand result data storage unit 102.

  Specifically, the hot water supply demand cumulative prediction amount calculation unit 103 acquires the hot water demand actual data stored in the hot water demand actual data storage unit 102, and calculates the distribution of the accumulated hot water demand up to each time. Calculate each. Here, it is known that the distribution of the accumulated value of hot water supply demands up to each time has a property close to a gamma distribution. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of a distribution of a cumulative amount of hot water supply demand according to the first embodiment. FIG. 4 shows an example of the distribution of the accumulated amount of hot water supply demand at 20:00 for a certain consumer. As shown in FIG. 4, when the distribution of the accumulated amount of hot water supply demand at 20:00 is approximated by an exponential function, it can be seen that the distribution of the accumulated amount of hot water supply demand at 20:00 is a distribution close to the gamma distribution. Accordingly, the hot water supply demand accumulated predicted amount calculation unit 103 assumes that the distribution of the accumulated amount of hot water supply demand up to each time follows a gamma distribution, and distributes the distribution of the accumulated amount of hot water demand up to each time. Parameters (shape parameter and scale parameter) are respectively calculated. Based on the calculated distribution parameters, the hot water demand cumulative predicted amount calculation unit 103 calculates the predicted cumulative amount of hot water demand on the next day from 0:00 to the next hour. For example, the hot water supply demand cumulative predicted amount calculation unit 103 calculates the average of the gamma distribution at each time as the predicted cumulative amount.

  Note that the hot water demand cumulative predicted amount calculation unit 103 does not become the cumulative value of hot water demand at the beginning of the day, for example, at midnight. It is known that the distribution of hot water demand at each time that is not cumulative is close to an exponential distribution. Therefore, assuming that the distribution of hot water supply demand at that time follows an exponential distribution, the parameter of the exponential distribution is calculated, and the predicted amount of hot water supply demand at 0:00 the next day is calculated based on this parameter.

  The power demand record acquisition unit 104 acquires power consumption data in the consumer 3 as power demand record data for each time. For example, the power demand record acquisition unit 104 acquires data of a watt-hour meter installed in the consumer 3 via the interface 9 and calculates the power consumption amount at each time as the record data. Further, each time the power demand record acquisition unit 104 calculates power demand record data, the calculated data is associated with the calculation date and stored in the power demand record data storage unit 105 each time. The power demand record acquisition unit 104 may overwrite and update the record data stored in the power demand record data storage unit 105 every time the power demand record data is acquired, or may store past data without overwriting. You may store with data as it is. The power demand record data storage unit 105 stores the power demand record data acquired by the power demand record acquisition unit 104 for each time.

  The power demand cumulative predicted amount calculation unit 106 uses the power demand result data stored in the power demand result data storage unit 105 to calculate the predicted power demand cumulative amount until each time of the next day. Unlike the hot water supply demand, the power demand does not become zero because there are load devices 8 such as a refrigerator that always consume power. However, when viewed at time intervals of about one hour, it has been found that the distribution of the accumulated amount of power demand up to each time is a distribution close to the gamma distribution, similar to the hot water supply demand. Therefore, the power demand cumulative predicted amount calculation unit 106 calculates the predicted cumulative amount of power demand up to each time by the same method as the hot water supply demand cumulative predicted amount calculation unit 103 described above.

  Specifically, the power demand cumulative prediction amount calculation unit 106 acquires the power demand result data stored in the power demand result data storage unit 105, for example, starting from midnight until midnight the next day. The distribution of the accumulated value of hot water supply demand up to each hour of every hour is calculated. Subsequently, the power demand cumulative predicted amount calculation unit 106 calculates distribution parameters for the distribution of the cumulative amount of power demand up to each time. Then, the power demand cumulative predicted amount calculation unit 106 calculates the predicted cumulative amount of power demand on the next day until each time, based on the calculated distribution parameters.

  The power generation output record acquisition unit 107 acquires the power generation output record data by the solar power generation device 5 through the interface 9 at each time. In addition, each time the power demand record acquisition unit 104 acquires the power generation output record data, the power demand record acquisition unit 104 stores the acquired data in the power generation output record data storage unit 108 in association with the acquisition date. The power generation output result acquisition unit 107 may overwrite and update the result data stored in the power generation output result data storage unit 108 every time the power generation output result data is acquired. You may store with data as it is. The power generation output result data storage unit 108 stores the power generation output result data acquired by the power generation output result acquisition unit 107 in association with the acquired date and time at each time.

  The weather information acquisition unit 109 acquires weather information in response to a request from a power generation output predicted value calculation unit 110 described later. For example, the weather information acquisition unit 109 acquires information related to the weather near the address of the customer 3 from a predetermined website or the like through communication performed via a network or the like. In addition, the weather information acquisition part 109 acquires the weather for every time slot | zone, such as sunny or cloudy, the estimated amount of sunlight, temperature, etc. as information regarding a weather.

  The power generation output predicted value calculation unit 110 uses the power generation output result data stored in the power generation output result data storage unit 108 and the weather information acquired by the weather information acquisition unit 109 to generate power at each time of the next day. Calculate the predicted value of the output.

  Specifically, the power generation output predicted value calculation unit 110 acquires the power generation output result data stored in the power generation output result data storage unit 108. Subsequently, the power generation output predicted value calculation unit 110 requests the weather information acquisition unit 109 for the weather information and the weather information for the next day corresponding to the date and time associated with the actual data of the power generation output, and outputs the requested weather information. Acquired from the weather information acquisition unit 109. Subsequently, the power generation output predicted value calculation unit 110 groups the power generation output performance data by weather corresponding to the date and time associated with the performance data, and further groups by time. Subsequently, the power generation output predicted value calculation unit 110 calculates the average value of the power generation output of each group on the assumption that the distribution of the power generation output grouped for each weather and each time follows a normal distribution. Then, the power generation output predicted value calculation unit 110 acquires the average value of the power generation output of the group corresponding to the weather information on the next day of each time, and calculates the predicted value of the power generation output for each time of the next day.

  The electricity price acquisition unit 111 acquires the current power purchase price and power sale price data from the website of an electric power company linked to the customer 3 by communication performed via a network or the like.

  The optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 uses the actual data, based on the accumulated predicted amount of hot water demand and power demand until each time of the next day, the predicted value of the power generation output, the power purchase price, the power sale price, etc. The optimum heat storage amount that the water heater 7 should maintain at each time of the next day is calculated. The optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 uses any data such as the average value of all the actual data, the average value of the previous month's data, and the actual data of yesterday when using the actual data of hot water supply demand, power demand and power generation output. May be. Here, when calculating the heat storage amount of the water heater 7, it is necessary to consider the power generation output when the reverse power flow due to the solar power generation of the consumer is restricted and the power generation output by the solar power generation and the water heater 7. This is because there is a close relationship with driving. In other words, if hot water cannot be stored in the hot water storage tank due to the capacity of the hot water storage tank, etc., hot water cannot be generated with the generated electricity, and power generation output exceeding the reverse power flow constraint must be suppressed. This is because a situation that must be done can occur.

(Assumption)
The optimal heat storage amount calculation unit 112 calculates the optimal heat storage amount that the water heater 7 should maintain at each time under the following assumptions. The COP (Coefficient Of Performance) of the water heater 7 varies depending on the outside air temperature, the incoming water temperature, the boiling water temperature, and the like. Therefore, it is assumed that the COP of the water heater 7 is calculated by the following linear format: “COP = a ₁ × temperature−a ₂ × incoming water temperature−a ₃ × boiling water boiling temperature + a ₄ ”. _{Incidentally,} a 1 ~a ₄ is, for example, can be estimated from the COP data according to catalog data of water heater 7. In the actual water heater 7, the boiling temperature is a discrete value, but for simplicity, it is assumed that a continuous value of 65 ° C. or higher and 90 ° C. or lower can be taken. Note that it may be assumed that a certain percentage of the heat stored in the hot water storage tank provided in the water heater 7 is lost due to heat dissipation, and the effects of temperature stratification and convection are not considered.

Subsequently, the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 calculates the heat storage amount at time t when the daily electricity bill is minimized in order to calculate the optimum heat storage amount that the water heater 7 should maintain at each time of the next day. It is formulated as an optimization problem of finding. For example, the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 can represent the electricity bill for one day by the following formula (1), where t (t is an integer of 1 to 24) is the time.

In addition, the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 can express the electricity cost at time t in the above equation (1) by the following equation (2).

Moreover, the optimal heat storage amount calculation part 112 can represent the electric power purchase amount in the time t in the said Formula (2) with the following formula | equation (3).

Moreover, the optimal heat storage amount calculation part 112 can represent the electric power sale amount in the time t in the said Formula (2) by the following formula | equation (4).

In addition, the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 can represent the power consumption at time t in the above formulas (3) and (4) by the following formula (5). Note that the PV power generation amount prediction value in Equation (5) corresponds to the power generation output prediction value calculated by the power generation output prediction value calculation unit 110. Further, the accumulated power demand prediction value in the equation (5) corresponds to the accumulated power demand prediction amount calculated by the power demand cumulative prediction amount calculation unit 106.

Moreover, the optimal heat storage amount calculation part 112 can represent the power consumption of the water heater 7 at the time t in the above formula (5) by the following formula (6). In addition, the accumulated hot water supply demand prediction value in Expression (6) corresponds to the accumulated predicted amount of hot water supply demand calculated by the hot water supply demand accumulated prediction amount calculation unit 106.

  And the optimal heat storage amount calculation part 112 sets the following constraint conditions (A)-(D) with respect to the optimization problem represented by said Formula (1)-(6). (A) Restriction due to reverse power flow, (B) Restriction due to tank capacity of water heater 7, (C) Restriction due to running out of hot water of water heater 7, and (D) Restriction due to output of water heater 7 are added.

(A) The restriction due to the reverse power flow is such that a restriction in consideration of the reverse power flow to the distribution system is added to the optimization problem, and this restriction can be expressed as the following equation (7).

(B) The restriction due to the tank capacity of the hot water heater 7 is a restriction in consideration of the point that the hot water exceeding the capacity of the tank of the hot water heater 7 cannot be stored with respect to the optimization problem. (8).

(C) The restriction due to running out of hot water in the hot water heater 7 is a restriction in consideration of the point of preventing the hot water from running out when the hot water heater 7 is operated with respect to the optimization problem. The constraint can be expressed as the following equation (9).

(D) The restriction due to the output of the water heater 7 adds a restriction to the optimization problem considering that there is a limit to the amount of hot water that can be generated by the water heater 7 per unit time. It can be expressed as (10).

  And the optimal heat storage amount calculation part 112 is represented by Formula (1)-(6) mentioned above on the basis of constraint conditions (A)-(D) represented by (7)-(10) mentioned above. The optimum solution of the optimization problem, that is, the amount of heat stored at time t when minimizing the daily electricity bill is calculated. Thereby, the optimal heat storage amount calculation part 112 calculates the optimal heat storage amount which the water heater 7 should maintain at each time of the next day.

  When each time reaches the above time, the water heater operation control unit 113 obtains the heat storage amount that the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 should maintain at the corresponding time from the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112, and the acquired heat storage amount Is controlled so that the operation of the water heater 7 (generation of hot water by the water heater 7) is maintained. Specifically, the hot water heater operation control unit 113 starts at midnight and reaches each time such as 0:00 am, 1:00 am, 2:00 am, etc., through the interface 9, the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7. Get information about thermocouples installed in And the hot water supply apparatus operation control part 113 estimates the heat storage amount of the hot water storage tank in each time based on the acquired information of the thermocouple.

  Subsequently, the hot water heater operation control unit 113 acquires the heat storage amount that the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 should maintain from the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 at the corresponding time. Then, the water heater operation control unit 113 compares the heat storage amount currently stored in the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 with the heat storage amount (necessary heat storage amount) to be maintained in the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 at the corresponding time. . Then, the hot water heater operation control unit 113 operates the hot water heater 7 according to the comparison result between the heat storage amount currently stored in the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 and the necessary heat storage amount (generation of hot water by the water heater 7). To control. Hereinafter, an example of an operation control method for the water heater 7 by the water heater operation control unit 113 will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of a water heater operation control method by the operation management apparatus according to the first embodiment. The line graph shown in FIG. 5 shows the transition of the minimum amount of hot water to be maintained in the hot water supply tank at each time, and the bar graph shown in FIG. 5 shows the amount of hot water (the amount of remaining hot water, or the amount of remaining hot water and the amount of generated hot water at each time). Sum).

  When the amount of hot water (the amount of remaining hot water) currently stored in the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 is greater than the minimum amount of hot water (when the amount of hot water consumed is less than expected), the water heater operation control unit 113 generates hot water. An instruction is transmitted to the water heater 7 so as not to be present. For example, as shown in FIG. 5, from 18:00 to 23:00, the amount of hot water currently stored in the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 (the amount of remaining hot water) greatly exceeds the minimum amount of hot water. In such a case, the water heater operation control unit 113 transmits an instruction to the water heater 7 so as not to generate hot water. Further, as shown in FIG. 5, at 8 o'clock, 9 o'clock, and 23 o'clock, the hot water amount currently stored in the hot water storage tank of the hot water heater 7 (remaining hot water amount) greatly exceeds the minimum hot water amount. Control unit 113 transmits an instruction to water heater 7 so as not to generate hot water. By doing in this way, the water heater operation control part 113 avoids the production | generation of useless hot water. On the other hand, when the amount of hot water currently stored in the hot water storage tank of the hot water heater 7 is less than the minimum amount of hot water (when the amount of hot water consumed is greater than expected), the hot water supply operation control unit 113 sets the minimum amount of hot water in the hot water storage tank. Calculate the amount of hot water required to satisfy Then, the water heater operation control unit 113 transmits an instruction to the water heater 7 so as to generate hot water for the calculated amount of hot water. For example, as shown in FIG. 5, the hot water heater operation control unit 113 has the amount of hot water (the amount of remaining hot water) currently stored in the hot water tank greatly below the minimum amount of hot water at 6 and 7 o'clock. In such a case, the water heater operation control unit 113 calculates the amount of hot water necessary for the hot water amount in the hot water storage tank to satisfy the minimum hot water amount, and instructs the water heater 7 to generate hot water for the calculated amount of hot water. Send. In addition, as shown in FIG. 5, at 1 o'clock, 11 o'clock to 16 o'clock, and 24 o'clock, as with 6 o'clock and 7 o'clock, the amount of hot water currently stored in the hot water supply tank (the amount of remaining hot water) is the minimum amount of hot water. Therefore, the hot water supply operation control unit 113 calculates the amount of hot water necessary for the hot water amount in the hot water storage tank to satisfy the minimum hot water amount, and instructs the hot water heater 7 to generate hot water for the calculated hot water amount. Send. By doing in this way, the water heater operation control unit 113 avoids running out of hot water in the hot water storage tank.

  The hot water heater operation control unit 113 can also control the operation of the hot water heater 7 by estimating the heat storage amount of the hot water storage tank from the surface temperature of the hot water storage tank. Specifically, when a predetermined time is reached, the water heater operation control unit 113 acquires the surface temperatures of the bottom and side portions of the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 through the interface 9. Subsequently, the water heater operation control unit 113 calculates an estimated heat storage amount (heat amount by hot water) of the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 based on the surface temperature acquired from the water heater 7.

  Subsequently, the hot water heater operation control unit 113 acquires the heat storage amount that the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 should maintain from the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 at the corresponding time. Subsequently, the water heater operation control unit 113 compares the amount of heat stored in the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 with the estimated amount of heat stored in the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7. Subsequently, when the estimated heat storage amount of the hot water storage tank of the hot water heater 7 is smaller than the heat storage amount that the hot water storage tank of the hot water heater 7 should maintain, the hot water heater operation control unit 113 sets the hot water heater 7 at a preset temperature in advance. An instruction is transmitted to the water heater 7 so as to generate a predetermined amount of hot water. Thereafter, the water heater operation control unit 113 sequentially acquires the surface temperatures of the bottom and side portions of the hot water storage tank of the hot water heater 7, calculates the estimated heat storage amount of the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7, and calculates the estimated heat storage amount. Each time, the amount of heat stored in the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 is compared. Then, the hot water heater operation control unit 113 transmits an instruction to the hot water heater 7 to stop the generation of hot water when the estimated heat storage amount becomes equal to or greater than the heat storage amount that the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 should maintain.

  The hot water heater operation control unit 113 is necessary for the hot water storage tank of the hot water heater 7 when the estimated heat storage amount of the hot water storage tank of the hot water heater 7 is not smaller than the heat storage amount that the hot water storage tank of the hot water heater 7 should maintain. It is determined that the amount of hot water is stored. Then, the water heater operation control unit 113 transmits an instruction to the water heater 7 so as not to generate hot water.

  The hot water heater operation control unit 113 can also control the operation of the hot water heater 7 based on the height of the hot water surface of the hot water storage tank and the surface temperature of the hot water storage tank. Specifically, when the hot water heater operation control unit 113 reaches a predetermined time, the height of the hot water surface currently stored in the hot water storage tank of the hot water heater 7 and the surface temperature of the hot water storage tank are determined via the interface 9. get. Subsequently, the water heater operation control unit 113 calculates the amount of hot water currently stored in the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 and the estimated heat storage amount based on the height and surface temperature of the hot water surface acquired from the water heater 7.

  Subsequently, the hot water heater operation control unit 113 acquires the heat storage amount that the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 should maintain from the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 at the corresponding time. Subsequently, the water heater operation control unit 113 determines whether or not the current estimated heat storage amount of the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 is below a predetermined threshold. When the water heater operation control unit 113 is below the predetermined threshold, the hot water supply operation control unit 113 subsequently determines whether or not the amount of hot water in the hot water storage tank satisfies the specified amount of hot water. The specified hot water amount is a predetermined hot water amount for preventing hot water shortage. As a result of the determination, when the amount of hot water in the hot water storage tank is less than the specified hot water amount, the water heater operation control unit 113 satisfies the heat storage amount to be maintained by the hot water storage tank of the hot water heater 7 and the specified hot water amount of the hot water storage tank. Calculate how much hot water is needed. Then, the water heater operation control unit 113 transmits an instruction to the water heater 7 so as to generate hot water according to the calculation result.

  On the other hand, when the amount of heat stored in the hot water storage tank satisfies the specified amount of hot water, the water heater operation control unit 113 sets the temperature of hot water necessary to satisfy the amount of heat stored in the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7. calculate. Then, the water heater operation control unit 113 transmits an instruction to overheat hot water in the hot water storage tank to the water heater 7 so that the calculated temperature is reached.

  When the estimated heat storage amount of the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 is not less than a predetermined threshold, the hot water amount currently stored in the water heater 7 satisfies the specified hot water amount. Shall. Then, the water heater operation control unit 113 transmits an instruction to the water heater 7 so as not to generate hot water.

[Processing by Operation Management Device (Example 1)]
FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating a flow of processing by the operation management apparatus according to the first embodiment. 6 is performed from 11:00 pm to midnight (23:00 to 24:00) the previous day in order to control the operation of the water heater 7 on the next day, for example.

  As illustrated in FIG. 6, the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 repeats the determination of S101 with the determination result of S101 as No until the processing start timing (exceeds 11:00 pm). Then, the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 reads the predicted accumulated amount of hot water supply demand from the hot water supply demand accumulated predicted amount calculation unit 103 when the processing start timing (exceeds 11:00 pm) (S101, YES) (S102). Subsequently, the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 reads the accumulated prediction amount of power demand from the power demand accumulation prediction amount calculation unit 106 (S103). Subsequently, the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 reads the predicted value of the power generation output from the power generation output predicted value calculation unit 110 (S104). Subsequently, the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 reads the power purchase price and the power sale price from the electricity price acquisition unit 111 (S105).

  Subsequently, the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 uses the heat storage amount at time t (t is an integer of 1 to 24) as a variable, and uses the data read in S102 to S105 as input data to express a mathematical expression representing the daily electricity bill. Create (S106). The formula created in S106 is expressed by the above-described formulas (1) to (6).

  Subsequently, the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 sets a constraint condition for obtaining a solution of the mathematical formula of S106 (S107). Note that the constraint condition set in S107 is expressed by the above-described equations (7) to (10).

  Subsequently, the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 calculates the heat storage amount when the daily electricity bill represented by the formula created in S106 is the minimum under the constraint condition set in S107 (S108).

  Then, the water heater operation control unit 113 controls the operation of the water heater 7 so that the heat storage amount calculated by the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 in S108 is maintained (S109), and the process ends.

[Comparison of Control Method According to Example 1 and Conventional Control Method]
Hereinafter, with reference to FIG. 7 to FIG. 15, using the hot water supply demand and power demand data measured in an actual home, control of the heat pump hot water heater by the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment described above, and the conventional A comparison result with the control of the heat pump type water heater by the control method will be described. In addition, the conventional control method shall be based on the nonpatent literature 1 "Solar power generation reverse power flow suppression system using connection control with a consumer apparatus" mentioned above, for example.

  FIG. 7 is a diagram showing a time-series change in average hot water supply demand. FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating a time-series change in average power demand. 7 and 8 were calculated using hot water supply demand data and electric power demand data for a certain month, which were actually measured in the households that are the consumer X, the consumer Y, and the consumer Z. It should be noted that each household of consumer X, consumer Y, and consumer Z is provided with a 3 kW solar power generation module and a heat pump type water heater with a thermal output of 4.5 kW. Further, the power generation output is estimated based on the amount of solar radiation, and the change in the COP of the water heater follows “COP = 0.175 × temperature−0.1322 × incoming water temperature−0.0394 × boiling temperature + 6.637”. It was supposed to be. In addition, 10% of the heat from the hot water storage tank was lost in 24 hours.

(Comparison of electricity bill)
First, using FIG. 9 to FIG. 11, a case where the operation of the heat pump type hot water heater is controlled by the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment, and a case where the heat pump type hot water heater is controlled by the conventional control method. Compare electricity bills. FIG. 9 is a comparison diagram of the electricity cost of the customer X according to the conventional method and the electricity cost of the customer X according to the control method according to the first embodiment. FIG. 10 is a comparison diagram of the electricity cost of the customer Y according to the conventional method and the electricity cost of the customer Y according to the control method according to the first embodiment. FIG. 11 is a comparison diagram of the electricity cost of the customer Z according to the conventional method and the electricity cost of the customer Z according to the control method according to the first embodiment.

  In customer X, as shown in FIG. 9, the electricity cost is reduced in the case of controlling the heat pump type water heater by the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment as compared with the conventional control method on all days. The result that was done was obtained. Although the amount of reduction varies depending on the day, the electricity cost was reduced by an average of 306 yen (maximum 427 yen, minimum 93 yen) and 704 yen in total for 23 days.

  In customer Y, as shown in FIG. 10, there is a day when the electricity cost is higher in the case of controlling the heat pump type water heater by the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment than in the conventional control method. Results were obtained. However, if evaluated as a whole, the average of 129 yen (maximum 275 yen, minimum -128 yen) when the heat pump type water heater is controlled by the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment is larger than the conventional control method. The electricity bill was reduced by 284.3 yen in total for 23 days.

  In customer Z, as shown in FIG. 11, the day when the heat cost of the heat pump type hot water heater is controlled by the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment is higher than the conventional control method. The result is that there is only. However, in the other 22 days, when the heat pump type water heater is controlled by the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment, the electricity cost is 45 yen cheaper than the conventional control method, and the average is 28.8 yen. (Maximum 42.8 yen, minimum -45 yen), the electricity bill of 634.1 yen was reduced in total for 23 days.

(Comparison of suppression amount)
First, referring to FIGS. 12 to 14, the power generation output when the heat pump type hot water heater is controlled by the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment and when the heat pump type hot water heater is controlled by the conventional method. The amount of suppression is compared. FIG. 12 is a comparison diagram of the suppression amount at the customer X according to the conventional method and the suppression amount at the customer X according to the control method according to the first embodiment. FIG. 13 is a comparison diagram of the suppression amount in the customer Y by the conventional method and the suppression amount in the customer Y by the control method according to the first embodiment. FIG. 14 is a comparison diagram of the amount of suppression at the customer Z according to the conventional method and the amount of suppression at the customer Z according to the control method according to the first embodiment. In the following, the amount of power exceeding 1 kilowatt of the reverse power flow restriction is defined as the suppression amount, and the total suppression amount for one day is compared.

  In customer X, as shown in FIG. 12, the day when the amount of suppression becomes larger in the case of controlling the heat pump type water heater by the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment than in the conventional control method is one day. The result is that there is only. The difference of the suppression amount is 0.03 kilowatt / hour in total of the suppression amount per day. On other days, the amount of suppression was smaller in the case of controlling the heat pump water heater by the operation management apparatus 100 according to Example 1 than in the conventional control method. Throughout the evaluation period, the daily average of 0.6 kilowatt / hour (maximum 1.5 kilowatt / hour, minimum -0.03 kilowatt / hour) is controlled by the heat pump water heater by the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment. The amount of suppression was reduced. In the entire evaluation period, the amount of suppression was reduced to a total of 14.0 kilowatts / hour.

  In customer Y, as shown in FIG. 13, when the control of the heat pump type hot water heater is performed by the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment, the day when the suppression amount is larger than the conventional control method is two days. The result was obtained. The difference in the suppression amount is 0.03 kilowatt / hour and 3.2 kilowatt / hour. In the entire evaluation period, the amount of suppression was reduced by an average of 0.53 kilowatts / hour per day by the control of the heat pump type hot water heater by the operation management apparatus 100 according to Example 1. And in the whole evaluation period, it became reduction of the suppression amount of 11.6 kilowatts / hour in total.

  In customer Z, as shown in FIG. 14, there is no day when the amount of suppression becomes larger in the case of controlling the heat pump water heater by the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment than in the conventional control method. Results were obtained. Control of the heat pump type hot water heater by the operation management apparatus 100 according to Example 1 resulted in a reduction in the suppression amount of 0.67 kilowatts / hour (up to 1.6 kilowatts / hour) per day. In the entire evaluation period, the amount of suppression was reduced to a total of 14.8 kilowatts / hour.

(Summary)
In FIG. 15, the comparison list of the control result of the heat pump type hot water heater by the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment and the control result of the heat pump type hot water heater by the conventional control method is shown. FIG. 15: is a figure which shows the comparison list of the control result of the heat pump type water heater by the operation management apparatus which concerns on Example 1, and the control result of the heat pump type hot water heater by the conventional control method. As shown in FIG. 15, the heat pump water heater control (proposed method) by the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment is more expensive than the conventional control method (existing method). ) Good results were obtained on both sides.

[Effects of Example 1]
As described above, the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment calculates the predicted cumulative amount of hot water supply demand and power demand from the actual data, and calculates the predicted value of the power generation output from the weather information. Subsequently, the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment calculates the optimum heat storage amount that the water heater should maintain based on the predicted cumulative amount of hot water supply demand and power demand and the predicted value of the power generation output. For this reason, according to the first embodiment, it is possible to suppress the variance of the estimated values by estimating the accumulated value up to each time for hot water supply demand and the like, so that the HP hot water supply at each time It is possible to accurately calculate the amount of heat stored in the machine. Furthermore, the operation management apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment adjusts the amount of hot water in the water heater based on the optimum amount of heat stored in the water heater. For this reason, according to the first embodiment, as shown in FIGS. 9 to 15 described above, more economical operation of the HP water heater can be realized than the conventional control method.

  Further, according to the first embodiment, when the amount of hot water currently stored in the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 is larger than the required amount of hot water, the generation of hot water is not performed, so that unnecessary hot water generation is avoided. As a result, economical operation of the HP water heater can be maintained. According to the first embodiment, when the amount of hot water currently stored in the hot water storage tank of the water heater 7 is less than the required hot water amount, hot water is generated for the amount of hot water necessary to make the hot water amount in the hot water storage tank the required hot water amount. Therefore, hot water shortage can be avoided while maintaining an economical operation of the HP water heater.

  Moreover, in Example 1 mentioned above, although the optimal heat storage amount that the electric cost of the day calculated by Formula (1) becomes the minimum was calculated, the following formula (11) is used, It is also possible to obtain a heat storage amount that minimizes the amount of power consumption. The amount of power consumption at time t in equation (11) is calculated by equation (5) above.

  Moreover, it is also possible to calculate the optimum heat storage amount that minimizes the PV power generation output suppression amount per day using the following equation (12).

  Note that, in the first embodiment described above, the hot water heater 7 is calculated by the above formulas (1) to (10) based on the predicted cumulative amount of hot water demand, the predicted cumulative value of power demand, and the predicted value of power generation output. The case where the optimum heat storage amount to be maintained at each time is calculated has been described. However, the present invention is not limited to this. For example, based on the predicted cumulative amount of hot water supply demand and the predicted cumulative value of electric power demand, the optimum heat storage amount that the water heater 7 should maintain at each time can also be calculated. . In this way, the function for calculating the predicted value of the power generation output can be reduced, and the optimum heat storage amount can be obtained while reducing the calculation load.

  Example 2 will be described below as another embodiment of the operation management device, operation management method, and operation management program according to the present invention.

(1) Device Configuration, etc. Each component of the operation management device 100 shown in FIG. 3 is functionally conceptual and does not necessarily need to be physically configured as illustrated. That is, the specific form of distribution or integration of the operation management device 100 is not limited to the illustrated one. For example, the optimum heat storage amount calculation unit 112 and the water heater operation control unit 113 may be integrated functionally or physically. Good. As described above, all or some of the constituent elements of the operation management apparatus 100 can be configured to be functionally or physically distributed and integrated in arbitrary units according to various loads or usage conditions. .

(2) Operation Management Program The various processes (see, for example, FIG. 6) of the operation management apparatus 100 described in the first embodiment are executed by electronic devices such as personal computers and workstations. Can be realized. Therefore, in the following, an example of an electronic device that executes an operation management program having the same function as that of the operation management apparatus 100 described in the first embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 16 is a diagram illustrating an example of an electronic device that executes an operation management program.

  As shown in FIG. 16, an electronic device 200 having the same function as that of the operation management apparatus 100 includes a memory 201 and a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 202. Further, the computer 200 has a hard disk drive interface 203 and an optical disk drive interface 204 as shown in FIG. Further, as shown in FIG. 16, the computer 200 includes a serial port interface 205, a video adapter 206, and a network interface 207. The computer 200 connects these units 201 to 207 via a bus 208.

  As shown in FIG. 16, the memory 201 includes a ROM (Read Only Memory) and a RAM (Random Access Memory). The ROM stores a boot program such as BIOS (Basic Input Output System). The hard disk drive interface 203 is connected to the hard disk drive 209 as shown in FIG. The optical disc drive interface 204 is connected to the optical disc drive 210 as shown in FIG. For example, a removable storage medium such as an optical disk is inserted into the optical disk drive 210. As shown in FIG. 16, the serial port interface 205 is connected to, for example, a mouse 300 and a keyboard 400. The video adapter 206 is connected to a display 500, for example, as shown in FIG.

  Here, as shown in FIG. 16, the hard disk drive 209 stores, for example, an OS (Operating System), application programs, program modules, and program data.

  That is, the operation management program according to the disclosed technology is stored in, for example, the hard disk drive 209 as a program module in which a command executed by the computer 200 is described. That is, a program module describing a procedure for executing the same processing as that of the operation management apparatus 100 described in the above-described embodiment is stored in the hard disk drive 209. For example, this program module describes a procedure for executing the same processing as the processing shown in FIG.

  Data used for processing by the operation management program is stored as program data in, for example, the hard disk drive 209. For example, the program data corresponds to various types of information stored in the hot water supply demand record data storage unit 102, the power demand record data storage unit 105, the power generation output record data storage unit 108, and the like described in the first embodiment.

  Then, the CPU 202 reads out the program module and program data stored in the hard disk drive 209 to the RAM as necessary, and executes a process (such as FIG. 6) similar to that described in the first embodiment. Execute.

  The program module and program data related to the operation management program are not limited to being stored in the hard disk drive 209, and may be stored in, for example, the optical disk drive 210 that is a removable storage medium. In this case, the CPU 202 reads program modules and program data related to the operation management program via the optical disc drive 210.

  Or the program module and program data which concern on a driving | operation management program may be memorize | stored in the other computer connected via networks (LAN (Local Area Network), WAN (Wide Area Network), etc.). In this case, the CPU 202 reads program modules and program data related to the operation management program from another computer via the network interface 207.

  Instead of the CPU 202 operating by a program to perform various processes, for example, the process can be performed using an electronic circuit such as an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) or an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array). Further, a flash memory or the like can be used as the memory 201.

(3) Operation Management Method The following operation management method is realized by the operation management apparatus 100 described in the first embodiment.

  That is, the computer calculates a predicted cumulative amount of hot water demand consumed by each time based on the past actual data of hot water demand consumed from the predetermined start time to each time (S102 in FIG. 6). ), Based on the actual data of the past power demand consumed by each time, a predicted cumulative amount of power demand consumed by each time is calculated (S103 in FIG. 6), and by each time A predicted value of the power generation output up to each time is calculated based on the actual data and weather data of the past power generation output consumed (S104 in FIG. 6), the predicted cumulative amount of hot water supply demand, and the prediction of the power demand Based on the accumulated amount and the predicted value of the power generation output, the heat storage amount of the water heater to be maintained at each time is calculated (S108 in FIG. 6), and the calculated heat storage amount is maintained. Hot water supply Controlling the operation (S109 in FIG. 6), the operation management method for performing each processing is realized.

1 Distribution substation 2 Distribution line 3 Each consumer (household)
DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 5 Photovoltaic power generation device 6 Storage battery 7 Heat pump type hot water heater 8 Load equipment 9 Interface 100 Operation management device 101 Hot water supply demand result acquisition part 102 Hot water supply result data storage part 103 Hot water supply accumulated prediction amount calculation part 104 Electric power demand result acquisition part 105 Power demand record data storage unit 106 Power demand cumulative prediction amount calculation unit 107 Power generation output result acquisition unit 108 Power generation output result data storage unit 109 Weather information acquisition unit 110 Power generation output predicted value calculation unit 111 Electric price acquisition unit 112 Optimal heat storage amount calculation unit 113 Water heater operation control unit 200 Electronic device 201 Memory 202 CPU
203 Hard Disk Drive Interface 204 Optical Disk Drive Interface 205 Serial Port Interface 206 Video Adapter 207 Network Interface 208 Bus 209 Hard Disk Drive 210 Optical Disk Drive 300 Mouse 400 Keyboard 500 Display

Claims (8)

An operation management device for managing the operation of a water heater,
The actual data of the past hot water demand consumed from the predetermined start time to each time is represented by a gamma distribution, the first parameter of the distribution of the actual data of the hot water demand is calculated, and the subsequent parameters are calculated based on the first parameter. A hot water supply demand prediction unit for calculating a predicted cumulative amount of hot water supply consumed by the same time as each time ;
The past power demand actual data consumed by each time is represented by a gamma distribution, a second parameter of the power demand actual data distribution is calculated, and each subsequent time based on the second parameter A power demand forecasting unit that calculates a predicted cumulative amount of power demand consumed by the same time ;
Based on the predicted cumulative amount of hot water demand calculated by the hot water demand prediction unit and the predicted cumulative amount of power demand calculated by the power demand prediction unit, the amount of heat stored in the water heater to be maintained at each time is calculated. A heat storage amount calculation unit for calculating each,
An operation control unit that controls the operation of the water heater so that the heat storage amount calculated by the heat storage amount calculation unit is maintained. A power generation output prediction unit that calculates a predicted value of the power generation output until each time based on the past data and weather data of the past power generation output consumed by each time;
The heat storage amount calculation unit is a predicted cumulative amount of hot water demand calculated by the hot water supply demand prediction unit, a predicted cumulative amount of power demand calculated by the power demand prediction unit, and the power generation output prediction unit The operation management device according to claim 1, wherein a heat storage amount of the water heater to be maintained at each time is calculated based on a predicted value of power generation output.   The operation control unit calculates a required amount of hot water corresponding to the heat storage amount calculated by the heat storage amount calculation unit and compares it with the amount of hot water remaining in the water heater, and as a result of comparison, the amount of hot water remaining in the water heater is When the amount of hot water remaining is less than the required amount of hot water, the operation of the water heater is controlled to generate hot water until the required amount of hot water is reached, while the amount of hot water remaining in the water heater is greater than the amount of required hot water. The operation management device according to claim 1 or 2, wherein operation of the water heater is controlled so as not to generate hot water. The heat storage amount calculation unit uses the heat storage amount at time t as a variable, and calculates an optimal solution when the daily electricity bill expressed by the following equations (1) to (6) is minimized. The operation management device according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the heat storage amount is calculated by deriving under a predetermined constraint condition.

In addition, t is an integer of 1-24. A computer-based operation management method for managing the operation of a water heater,
The computer is
The actual data of the past hot water supply demand consumed from the predetermined start time to each time is represented by a gamma distribution, the first parameter of the distribution of the actual data of the power demand is calculated, and the subsequent parameters are calculated based on the first parameter. Calculate the predicted cumulative amount of hot water demand consumed by the same time as each time ,
The past power demand actual data consumed by each time is represented by a gamma distribution, a second parameter of the power demand actual data distribution is calculated, and each subsequent time based on the second parameter Calculate the estimated cumulative amount of power demand consumed by the same time ,
Based on the predicted cumulative amount of hot water demand and the predicted cumulative amount of power demand, respectively, calculate the heat storage amount of the water heater to be maintained at each time,
An operation management method comprising: performing each process of controlling the operation of the water heater so that the calculated amount of stored heat is maintained. The computer is
Based on the past data and weather data of the past power generation output consumed by each time, further calculate the predicted value of the power generation output until each time,
The heat storage amount of the water heater to be maintained at each time is calculated based on the predicted cumulative amount of hot water demand, the predicted cumulative amount of power demand, and the predicted value of the power generation output, respectively. Item 6. The operation management method according to Item 5. An operation management program for causing a computer to execute a process for managing the operation of a water heater,
In the computer,
The actual data of the past hot water supply demand consumed from the predetermined start time to each time is represented by a gamma distribution, the first parameter of the distribution of the actual data of the power demand is calculated, and the subsequent parameters are calculated based on the first parameter. A procedure for calculating a predicted cumulative amount of hot water demand consumed by the same time as each time ;
The past power demand actual data consumed by each time is represented by a gamma distribution, a second parameter of the power demand actual data distribution is calculated, and each subsequent time based on the second parameter A procedure to calculate the estimated cumulative amount of electricity demand consumed by the same time ;
Based on the predicted cumulative amount of hot water supply demand and the predicted cumulative amount of power demand, a procedure for calculating the heat storage amount of the water heater to be maintained at each time,
And a procedure for controlling the operation of the water heater so that the calculated amount of stored heat is maintained. In the computer,
Based on the past data and weather data of the past power generation output consumed by each time, further executing a procedure for calculating a predicted value of the power generation output until each time,
The procedure for calculating the heat storage amount of the water heater is based on the predicted cumulative amount of hot water demand, the predicted cumulative amount of power demand, and the predicted value of the power generation output. The operation management program according to claim 7, wherein the heat storage amount is calculated respectively.

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