JP5546825B2 - Simulation apparatus, simulation method, and simulation system - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a simulation apparatus capable of performing simulation related to management of a ranch or the like composed of a plurality of animals.

  Conventionally, simulation analysis of dairy management has been attempted. Usually, it is generally calculated based on the number of cows and the milk yield of the individual (dairy cow productivity, milk yield capacity per cow). Is emphasized. When the milk yield of an individual is high, analysis using lactation is widely used because the lactation ability of dairy cows directly contributes to the increase in sales. In particular, the design with the goal of improving lactation ability is emphasized even when feed is given at the production site, and management plans and simulation analysis based on lactation ability are also applied to the application for financing to financial institutions.

  For this reason, the priority of breeding management by dairy owners was to improve the milking ability first. However, the original physiological functions of dairy cows include breeding, self-growth and immunity in addition to lactation, and these matters were not fully considered. Especially for breeding, it takes about two years for a calf that has been delivered and born to become pregnant after childbirth and deliver a calf. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the progress of these periods.

  Under these circumstances, as one of the methods for managing the herd, dairy cow nutrition diagnosis processing, cattle herd health management, and reproductive management processing are carried out over time using a computer, based on the milk component data of the cow. A dairy cattle management system is disclosed that performs nutritional processing on dairy cows by analyzing the intake nutrition based on the computed data and performing program processing based on the analyzed data (for example, patents) Reference 1). In addition, an identification unit is provided on the milk tap side of the milk pipeline, and an identification unit for detecting the identification unit and identifying the cow bed, and identification data and milking data are stored on the distributor side of the milking unit. A milking management system including a transmission / reception unit that receives and stores data while providing a control unit having a storage unit is disclosed (for example, see Patent Document 2).

JP-A-7-194273 Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 2001-45898

  However, Patent Documents 1 and 2 both manage dairy cattle, but do not manage the entire ranch management, but predict the future ranch growth and achieve the goal of managing the ranch. It is not something that can provide guidelines for The present invention enables animal group evaluation and ranch management evaluation based on the breeding function of livestock animals such as dairy cows, and considers the breeding period (time flow) of livestock animals. The aim is to provide a simulation device for counting and indexing the potential of future ranch growth by incorporating the process of pregnancy and first birth into the management simulation, finding the fertility and serviceability of the group of animals. To do.

  In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, the present invention provides the number of pariparous animals with experience of delivery within a predetermined group of animals having a plurality of animals, non-pariline animals with no experience of delivery and no pregnancy. A simulation apparatus for calculating a change in a predetermined period with respect to a number and a number of first-pregnant animals having a first pregnancy, wherein the number of first-time parous animals and first-time non-pariparous animals in the predetermined period And the number of first-pregnant animals at the beginning of the period and the delivery interval in the group of animals, and the number of non-pariparous animals at the beginning stored by the storage means within the predetermined period The number of first primiparous animals that deliver for the first time after pregnancy, the number of primiparous animals at the end of the period that become first-born animals within the predetermined period, and the first non-pariparum that does not change within the predetermined period Number of nonparigenic animal changes that calculate the number of animals And means for calculating the number of first-pregnant animals that calculates the number of second first-born animals that deliver for the first time within the predetermined period on the basis of the number of first-pregnant animals stored at the beginning stored in the storage means And the number of first-time parotiated animals memorized by the memory means, the first number of first-born animals calculated by the non-parinatal animal change number calculating means, and the second number calculated by the first-pregnant animal change number calculating means. Based on the number of first-born animals, the number of first-born animals calculated by the means of calculating the number of first-born animals and the number of first-born animals calculated by means of calculating the number of first-born animals Based on the number of second primary animals calculated by the animal change number calculating means, and the number of first-time parous animals and the delivery interval memorized by the memory means, the number of birth animals that can be born within the predetermined period Birth animal count calculation means to calculate the number of animals The number of non-pariparous animals at the end of the predetermined period is calculated based on the number of first non-pariparous animals calculated by means and the number of live animals calculated by means of the number of live animals The present invention relates to a simulation apparatus comprising a term end nonpariogenic animal number calculating means.

  According to the present invention, based on the number of pariparous animals at the beginning of the predetermined period, the number of non-parivial animals at the beginning and the number of primary pregnant animals at the beginning, and the delivery interval in the animal group, The number of parous animals, the number of non-pariparous animals at the end of the period, and the number of primary pregnant animals at the end of the period can be calculated.

  In the present invention, the storage means is a ratio of a first-born animal that is a ratio of a first-time non-pariparous animal to be a first-pregnant animal within the predetermined period, and a first-born animal that has undergone pregnancy within the predetermined period. And the first rate of first-born animals, which is the rate at which the first-pregnant animals become first-born animals within the predetermined period, and the number of changes in non-pariparous animals. The calculating means calculates the number of first-pregnant animals at the end of the period based on the rate of first-pregnant animals stored by the storage means and the number of non-pariparous animals at the beginning of the period, and the first first-born baby stored by the storage means Based on the rate of animals and the number of non-pariparous animals at the beginning of the period, the number of first primiparous animals is calculated. It is preferable to calculate the number of second first-born animals based on the number of first-pregnant animals.

  Here, the characteristics of the first pregnant animals, the first newborn animal ratio, and the second first-born animal ratio, which are characteristics unique to each animal group, are considered. In other words, the number of primiparous animals at the end of the period is calculated based on the rate of primiparous animals and the number of non-pariparous animals at the beginning of the period. The number of animals is calculated based on the number of animals, and the second number of first-born animals is calculated based on the second rate of first-born animals and the number of first-born animals. Therefore, it is possible to perform animal group evaluation in consideration of characteristics unique to each animal group, and management simulation closer to the management of a real ranch or the like is possible.

  In the present invention, the storage means further stores a milked animal rate, which is a ratio of animals that can be milked among the parotiated animals, and the simulation device further includes the number of the pariparous animals at the beginning stored by the storage means. , The number of milking animals, and the number of milking animals It is preferable to include a milk amount calculating means for calculating a milk amount that can be shipped within the predetermined period based on the number of milking animals calculated by the means.

  With this configuration, the number of milking animals that can be milked is calculated based on the number of parotiated animals at the beginning of the period, the number of parous animals at the end of the period, and the ratio of milking animals. The amount of milk that can be shipped within a given period is calculated based on the above, so that it is possible to evaluate the capacity of cows for milk production based on the herd evaluation considering the reproductive function of cows. It becomes possible, and management simulation closer to the management of a real ranch or the like becomes possible.

  In the present invention, the simulation apparatus further includes an input receiving unit that receives an input from a user for a simulation period that is an integral multiple of the predetermined period, and the number of pariparous animals at the beginning stored in the storage unit, Calculate the number of non-parivial animals at the beginning of the period and the number of first-pregnant animals at the beginning of the period by the number of pariparous animals at the end of the period calculated by means of calculating the number of changes in the parabirth animals and the means of calculating the number of nonpariparous animals at the end of the period, respectively. The number of reproductive animals at the beginning of the period is updated with the number of non-pariparous animals at the end of the period and renewal means updated with the number of primary pregnant animals at the end of the period calculated by the means for calculating the number of changes in non-parivial animals. Based on the number of non-parivial animals at the beginning of the period and the number of primary pregnant animals at the beginning of the period Animal count calculation method and the number of non-pariparous animals The calculation by the determination means and the update by the update means are repeated the number of times corresponding to the integer, so that the number of pariparous animals at the end of the simulation period, the number of non-parivial animals at the end of the simulation period, and the number of primary pregnant animals at the end of the period It is preferable to calculate the number.

  With this configuration, based on the simulation period (for example, the predetermined period is 1 year and the simulation period is 10 years) input by the user, By repeating the calculation of the number of born animals and the number of primary pregnant animals at the end of the period for the number of years of the simulation period, the number of parous animals, the number of non-pariparous animals, and the number of primary pregnant animals at the end of the period are calculated. It is possible to calculate. Therefore, it is possible to evaluate a group of animals after a desired period of time input by the user has elapsed, and it is possible to count and index the growth potential of a pasture or the like over a long period of time.

  In the present invention, the delivery interval is a provisional delivery interval that is temporarily set, and the simulation apparatus further includes, according to a user's input, the number of pariparous animals at the end of the simulation period and the non-pariline at the end of the simulation period. Based on the target number receiving means for receiving the target number of animals or the number of primary pregnant animals at the end of the period, based on the provisional delivery interval, the means for calculating the number of non-parivial animals, the means for calculating the number of first pregnant animals, By repeating the calculation by the means for calculating the number of animal changes, the number of birth animals, the number of non-parivial animals at the end of the period, and the update by the means for updating, the animals at the end of the period after the simulation period are repeated. , The number of nonparigenic animals at the end of the period and the number of primary pregnant animals at the end of the period, and the end of the period after the simulation period calculated by the temporary calculation means Goal achievement determination means for determining whether the number of pariparous animals, the number of non-parivial animals at the end of the period, or the number of primary pregnant animals at the end of the period has reached the target number received by the target number receiving means, and a target When it is determined that the target number has not been reached by the achievement determination means, a shorter provisional delivery interval is newly set, and when it is determined that the target number has been reached, it is set longer. Based on the provisional delivery interval setting means for newly setting the provisional delivery interval and the new provisional delivery interval set by the provisional delivery interval setting means, the provisional calculation means determines the number of pariparous animals at the end of the simulation period after the simulation period, Calculate the number of non-pariparous animals at the end of the period and the number of first-pregnant animals at the end of the period, and provisional delivery until the provisional delivery interval reaches the longest delivery interval that is determined to have reached the target number by means of determining whether the target is achieved Interval setting hand Setting by, calculated by the temporary calculating unit repeats the determination by the goal achievement determination means preferably comprises a optimal calving interval specifying means for specifying the optimal calving interval to achieve the target number.

  With such a configuration, since an optimal delivery interval is specified in order to achieve the target number, it is possible to provide a more effective ranch management index to the user.

  The present invention further provides for the number of intrapartum animals with experience of delivery, the number of non-partially non-pregnant animals with no experience of delivery, and the first pregnancy within a given group of animals. A simulation method for causing a computer device to calculate a change in the number of prime-pregnant animals in a predetermined period, wherein the number of parotid animals at the beginning, the number of non-pariparous animals at the beginning and the beginning of the predetermined period The number of primiparous animals and the delivery interval of pariparous animals in the group of animals are stored in a memory area, and the predetermined period is determined based on the number of non-pariparous animals at the beginning stored in the memory area. The number of first primiparous animals that perform first delivery after pregnancy, the number of primiparous animals that become primates within the predetermined period, and the first non-change that does not change within the predetermined period Calculate the number of parous animals And a step of calculating the number of second first-born animals performing the first delivery within the predetermined period based on the number of first-stage first-pregnant animals stored in the storage area, and storing in the storage area Calculating the number of pariparous animals at the end of the period based on the number of pariparous animals at the beginning of the period, the number of first primiparous animals calculated and the number of second primiparous animals calculated Based on the number of first primary animals produced, the calculated number of second primary animals, and the number of parotiated animals at the beginning and the delivery interval stored in the memory area, A step of calculating the number of possible live animals, the number of first non-pariparous animals calculated, and the number of non-parinatal animals at the end of the predetermined period based on the calculated number of live animals Characterized by comprising the step of calculating On ® down method.

  The present invention further provides for the number of intrapartum animals with experience of delivery, the number of non-partially non-pregnant animals with no experience of delivery, and the first pregnancy within a given group of animals. A simulation system comprising a server device that calculates fluctuations in a predetermined period with respect to the number of first pregnant animals, and a terminal device capable of communicating with the server device via a communication network, wherein the terminal device is: Input accepting means for accepting an input of the number of pariparous animals at the beginning of the predetermined period, the number of non-parivial animals at the beginning and the number of prime pregnant animals at the beginning, and the delivery interval in the animal group according to the user's input And the number of first-time parous animals accepted by the input accepting means, the number of first-time non-pariparous animals and the first number of first-pregnant animals, and the information for transmitting the delivery interval to the server device Information receiving means for receiving the number of first-time parous animals, first-number non-pariparous animals and first-number of first-pregnant animals, and the delivery interval transmitted from the terminal device. And the number of first primiparous animals that deliver for the first time after pregnancy within the predetermined period based on the number of non-pariparous animals at the beginning received by the information receiving means, within the predetermined period Received by the information receiving means and the non-parinatal animal change count calculating means for calculating the number of primary pregnant animals at the end of the period to be the first pregnant animals and the number of first non-pariparous animals that do not change within the predetermined period. Based on the number of primiparous animals at the beginning of the period, the number of first primiparous animals for calculating the number of second primiparous animals that deliver for the first time within the predetermined period and received by the information receiving means Calculated by means of calculating the number of pariparous animals at the beginning of the period Based on the number of first primiparous animals and the number of second primiparous animals calculated by means of calculating the number of first primiparous animals, The number of first primiparous animals calculated by the non-pariparous animal change number calculating means, the second number of first born animals calculated by the first pregnant animal change number calculating means, and the initial time received by the information receiving means Based on the number of animals born and the delivery interval, the number of live animals that calculates the number of live animals that can be born within the predetermined period, and the first non-live animal change number calculation means A means of calculating the number of non-pariparous animals at the end of the period for calculating the number of non-pariparous animals at the end of the predetermined period based on the number of parous animals and the number of live animals calculated by the means of calculating the number of live animals A simulation system characterized by comprising To do.

It is a block diagram showing the structure of the simulation system concerning embodiment of this invention. It is a figure showing the feeding dynamic process of the cow group concerning embodiment of this invention. It is a figure showing the change rate table concerning embodiment of this invention. It is a figure showing the herd evaluation table concerning embodiment of this invention. It is a figure showing the unit price table concerning embodiment of this invention. It is a figure showing the management evaluation table concerning embodiment of this invention. It is an example of the flowchart about the evaluation process of the herd concerning the embodiment of the present invention. It is an example of the flowchart about the evaluation process of the optimal delivery interval concerning embodiment of this invention. It is an example of the flowchart showing the target achievement possibility determination processing concerning embodiment of this invention. It is a figure showing the change of the display screen of the terminal concerning embodiment of this invention.

  FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a simulation system according to an embodiment of the present invention. The simulation apparatus 1 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 11, a RAM (Random Access Memory) 12, a hard disk drive (HDD) 13, and a communication interface 14, which are connected by an internal bus.

  The CPU 11 executes a program stored in the HDD 13 and controls the simulation apparatus 1. The RAM 12 is a work area for the CPU 11. The HDD 13 is a storage area for storing programs and data. The CPU 11 reads data necessary for controlling the simulation apparatus 1 from the RAM 12 and performs processing.

  The communication interface 14 is connected to the communication network 15 by wire and can communicate with other terminals 16. The communication interface 14 can also perform wireless communication via a communication unit having an antenna. For example, at the terminal 16, a rancher or a financial institution considering a loan to the rancher accesses a predetermined website on the Internet and inputs an ID and a password. The simulation apparatus 1 receives the ID and password via the communication interface 14 and authenticates whether or not login is possible. If the ID and password stored in the user database set in the HDD 13 match, it is possible to log in, and the terminal 16 can use the simulation system.

  When logging in to the simulation system is performed, the user inputs predetermined data, such as the initial number of calves, the initial number of calves, and the delivery interval, to an input device such as a keyboard installed in the terminal 16. Etc. can be input. Input information input from the input device of the terminal 16 is stored in the RAM 12 via the communication interface 14, and the CPU 11 executes various calculation processes based on the input information. When the execution of the calculation process ends, the calculation result is transmitted to the terminal 16 via the communication interface 14. When the terminal 16 receives the calculation result, the simulation result is displayed on the display device of the terminal 16.

  Next, the feeding behavior of the animal group performing the simulation in the simulation system according to the embodiment of the present invention will be described. FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of a feeding dynamic process of an animal group according to the embodiment of the present invention. In this embodiment, the group of animals is a group of cattle kept on a ranch, and the group of cattle includes a calf 21, a first pregnant cow 22, a parous cow 23, a first cow 24 and a milking cow 25. The rearing calf 21 refers to a female calf from birth to first conception. In this embodiment, the calf is born and sold soon. The breeding calf 21 is seeded for the first time after 13 to 15 months have passed since birth. The breeding calf 21 which has been successfully seeded and conceived becomes a first pregnant cow 22 which is a cow having a first pregnancy. The primiparous cows 22 deliver after about 10 months from conception, and the primiparous cows 22 become the first calves 24 that have been delivered for the first time. In addition, the first cow 24 is a concept included in the parous cow 23 which is a cow with experience in calving.

  The cross breeding cattle 23 including the first calf 24 is subjected to the following seeding after almost two months after delivery. The breeding cattle 23 that has been successfully seeded and conceived performs the next delivery after about 10 months have passed since the conception. The calving interval 26 is the number of days between one calving and the next calving, and is different for each calving cow. In the present invention, it is treated as indicating the average number of days for each farm. The delivery interval 26 changes depending on the management policy of the ranch, and is a different value for each ranch. The dairy cows 23 that have delivered are milked to produce raw milk that can be consumed by humans. Milking is carried out several days after delivery until dry. Dry milk is to stop milking about 60 days before the next scheduled delivery date in order to prepare the parous cow 23 for the next delivery. The milking cow 23 is also classified as a milking cow 25.

  Parous cattle 23 can deliver several times and contribute to raw milk production as milked cow 25 from postpartum to dry milk, but the milk yield decreases by increasing the number of deliveries or simply increasing the age. . Cattle that meet conditions such as milk production below a certain level are discarded. It should be noted that death due to disuse or accidents can also occur in other breeding calves 21 and primiparous cows 22, and such cattle are excluded from the herd.

  Cattle from the herd can also be sold. On the other hand, there is a case where a breeding calf or the like is purchased from the outside, and in this case, the purchased cow is allowed to enter the corresponding breeding calf 21, the first pregnant cow 22, the parous cow 23, or the like.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of a change rate table according to the embodiment of the present invention. The change rate table 40 is stored in the HDD 13 of the simulation apparatus 1 and is read out to the RAM 12 when the simulation is started. The change rate table 40 includes a parameter 41 relating to the delivery interval, a milking cow rate 42, a change rate 43 from the rearing calf (start), a change rate 44 from the first pregnant cow (start), and a change rate 45 of the first calf (current). In addition, items including a change rate 46 of primary pregnant cows (current period), a change rate 47 of parous cows, a birth rate 48, a calf change rate 49, and a calf change rate 50 are set. These probabilities can be set in advance based on past statistics, or can be arbitrarily set by the user according to the management policy of the ranch. Note that the term “current period” refers to a period (predetermined period) in which calculation processing is to be performed.

  The parameter 41 regarding the delivery interval is information including the delivery interval 41a and the delivery interval coefficient 41b. The delivery interval 41a is set to the delivery interval input by the user. The delivery interval coefficient 41b is a value obtained by dividing 365, which is the number of days in one period (1 year), by the delivery interval 41a. Since one parous cow carries out one delivery at every delivery interval, the delivery interval coefficient 41b can be regarded as the number of deliveries performed by one cow in one period. Therefore, by multiplying the number of parous cows at the beginning of the period by the delivery interval coefficient 41b, it is possible to calculate the number of deliveries performed by the herd in the current period.

  The milking cow rate 42 is a numerical value representing the ratio of milking cows occupying in the calves, and is set in advance based on past statistics, but can be varied according to the delivery interval. The number of milking cows is calculated by multiplying the number of cows produced by the milking cow rate 42. The number of milking cows is used to calculate the amount of raw milk production as will be described later.

  In the rate of change 43 from the breeding calf (beginning), the probability that the cow that is a breeding calf at the beginning will change in the current period is set. The breeding calf → primary pregnancy → primary cow rate 43a is the probability that a cow that is a breeding calf at the beginning of the period will undergo the first pregnancy in the current period and become the first cow. The breeding calf → primary calf rate 43b is the probability of becoming a first pregnant cow in the current period, and the breeding calf → bred calf rate 43c is the probability of remaining as a calf until the end of the term. The first-pregnant cow (nurturing →) sales rate 43d is the probability that the cow will be sold after becoming first-born in the current period and will not remain in the herd at the end of the period. The abandonment / death (nurturing (beginning)) rate 43e is the probability of becoming a cow that does not remain in the herd at the end of the term because it was abolished or died in the current period. In addition, breeding calf → primary pregnancy → primary cow rate 43a, breeding calf → primary cow rate 43b, breeding calf → bred calf rate 43c, first pregnant cow (bred →) sales rate 43d, disused / dead (bred ( Beginning)) The sum of the rates 43e is equal to 1.

  The rate of change 44 from the first pregnant cow is the item in which the probability that a cow that is a first pregnant cow will change to each cow in the current period is set at the beginning, and is the probability that the first cow will be the first cow in the current period. Pregnant cattle → primary cattle rate 44a, and abolished / dead (primary cattle (early)) rate 44b, which is the probability of becoming a cattle that does not remain in the herd at the end of the term because it was abandoned or died in the current period. The total of the first pregnant cow → first cow production rate 44a and the abandoned / dead (primary cow (early)) rate 44b is equal to 1.

  In the rate of change 45 for the first cow (current period), the probability that the cow that became the first cow in the current period will change by the end of the period is set. Cattle that became the first cow in the current term are calves that were raised at the beginning of the term and first born after the first pregnancy in the term, and the first calf at the beginning of the term. It is a concept that includes cattle that have become cattle. Therefore, by multiplying the total number of cattle that became the first cow from the rearing calf (early) and the number of cows that became the first cow from the first pregnant cow (early), the rate of change 45 of the first cow (current) Changes to the end of the period for cattle that became the first cow are calculated. The change rate 45 of the first cow (current period) includes the abandonment / death (primary cow) ratio 45a, which is the probability of being abolished or dying in the current period, and the first cow production rate 45b, which is the probability of entering the cow at the end of the period. Is included. The sum of the abolished / dead (primary cow) rate 45a and the first cow entry rate 45b is equal to 1.

  The change rate 46 of the first pregnant cow (current period) is set to the probability that the cow that became the first pregnant cow in the current period will change by the end of the period. And the rate of mortality (primary cattle (nurturing)) 46a and the rate of first pregnant cattle (term end) 46b, which is the probability of remaining as a first term cattle until the end of the term. The sum of the abolished / dead (primary cow (bred)) rate 46a and the first pregnant cow (terminating) rate 46b is equal to 1.

  The change rate 47 of parous cattle is set to the probability that cattle that were parous cows at the beginning of the term will change by the end of the term. This includes a parous cattle mortality rate 47b, which is the probability of a calf dying in the current period, and a parous cattle (term end) rate 47c, which is the probability of a calf remaining in the herd until the end of the term. The total of the cross cow sales rate 47a, the cross cow death rate 47b, and the cross cow (end of term) rate 47c is equal to 1.

  Next, the rate of change related to labor and birth will be described. The birth rate 48 sets the probability of each calf born in the current period, and the number of calves born in the current period is calculated as being equal to the number of calves that deliver in the current period. Therefore, the number of calves born in the current period is calculated by multiplying the total number of cows delivered in the current period and the total number of first cows delivered in the current period by the birth rate 48. The number of first cows is the total of the number of cows that became the first cow from the rearing calf (beginning) and the number of cows that became the first cow from the first pregnant cow (beginning). The birth rate 48 includes a male calf birth rate 48a, which is the probability that a calf will be born, a female calf birth rate 48b, which is the probability that a cow will be born, and a calf death rate 48c, which is the probability of being born dead. The sum of the male calf birth rate 48a, the female calf birth rate 48b, and the calf death rate 48c is equal to 1.

  The calf change rate 49 represents the probability that the number of calves born in the current period will change due to sales or the like. In the present embodiment, the born calf is sold at a unit price corresponding to its type. The male calf change rate 49 is dairy male sales rate 49a, which is the probability of being born and sold as a dairy male, Japanese beef sales rate 49b, which is the probability of being born and sold as a Japanese beef, and F1 cattle. The F1 cattle sales rate 49c, which is the probability, is included. The sum of the dairy male sales rate 49a, the Japanese beef sales rate 49b, and the F1 cattle sales rate 49c is equal to 1.

  The cow calf change rate 50 represents the probability that the number of cows born during the period will change due to sales or the like. In this embodiment, the cow is bred as a breeding calf until it is fertilized in 13 to 15 months. The calf change rate 50 includes a breeding calf breeding rate 50a which is a probability of breeding as a breeding calf and a waste / death (bringing (birth)) rate 50b which is a probability of being scrapped or dying. The total of the breeding calf breeding rate 50a and the waste / death (nurturing (birth)) rate 50b is equal to 1.

  Next, the cow herd evaluation table will be described. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of a herd evaluation table according to the embodiment of the present invention. The herd evaluation table 60 is provided in the RAM 12 of the simulation apparatus 1, and includes the initial number of cattle (including the initial number of calves, the initial number of first pregnant cows, and the number of initial calves) input by the user, and cattle described later. The result of the group evaluation process is stored. The cattle herd evaluation table 60 includes the initial number of cows 61, the number of cows changed from the breeding calf (start), the number of cows changed from the first pregnant cow (start), the number of cows changed from the first calf (current period) to 64, the first Items including 65 changed cows for pregnant cattle (current period), 66 changed cows for parous cows, 67 born cows, 68 born bulls, 69 born cows, 70 ending cows, and 71 milking cows Is done.

  In the embodiment of the present invention, the number of cows such as the number of calves to be raised, the number of first-pregnant cows and the number of cows that have been born is calculated by multiplying the number of cows in the population by the rate of change set in the rate-of-change table 40. Is done. Therefore, the calculated number of cows may be a value including a decimal number. In this case, fraction processing is performed as follows. As described above, the total of the change rates included in the change rate 43 from the breeding calf (beginning), the change rate 44 from the first pregnant cow (beginning), and the like are all 1. In this case, the decimal part of the number of cows calculated from the same population is rounded down, the total of the number of cows rounded down is compared with the number of populations, and the total number of cows is equal to the number of populations. As shown, round up from the one with the largest decimal part. In addition, when the decimal part is equal, it rounds up sequentially from the thing with the largest value of each cow number.

  For example, the number of breeding calves (beginning) 61a, which is the number of the population, is “140”, the breeding calf → primary pregnancy → the first cow production rate 43a, the breeding calf → the first pregnancy cow rate 43b, the breeding calf → the breeding baby The values obtained by multiplying the cattle rate 43c, the first-pregnant cattle (nurturing →) sales rate 43d, and the abolished / dead (nurturing (early)) rate 43e to the number of calves (early) 61a are respectively “17.8” ”,“ 87.7 ”,“ 19.2 ”,“ 12.2 ”,“ 3.2 ”,“ 17.8 ”,“ "87.7" is rounded up to "18" and "88", and the rest are rounded down to "19", "12", and "3". Moreover, when the set change rate is the parameter 41 regarding the delivery interval or the milking cow rate 42, the decimal part is rounded down.

  Subsequently, information included in the herd evaluation table 60 will be described in detail. First, the number of cattle at the beginning 61 is an item in which the number of cattle at the beginning of the term, which is the basis of the calculation process in the current term, is stored, and the number of calves (beginning) 61a that is the number of calves at the beginning of the term , The number of first-pregnant cows (beginning) 61b, which is the number of first-pregnant cows at the beginning, and the number of first-time cows 61b, which is the number of first-time cows at the beginning of the period If the current period is the first period, the initial cattle number 61 is stored as the initial calf (initial) number 61a, that is, the initial calf number input by the user. The number of pregnant cows is stored as the number of first pregnant cows (beginning) 61b, and the number of initial cows is stored as the number of cows born (beginning) 61c. If the current period is the second period or later, the respective values of the end-of-period number of cows 70 in the previous period are stored.

  The number of change cows 62 from the breeding calf (beginning) is the respective probability set by the change rate 43 from the breeding calf (beginning) in the change rate table 40 with respect to the number 61a of the breeding calf (beginning). This item is calculated by multiplying. First, the breeding calf → first pregnancy → the number of first cows 62a is calculated by multiplying the breeding calf (start) 61a by the breeding calf → first pregnancy → first cow production rate 43a. For example, in the first period, the number of breeding calves → primary pregnancy → the number of first cows 62a is “0.13”, which is a breeding calf → first pregnancy → the first cow production rate 43a to “140” which is a breeding calf (beginning) 61a. ”And calculated as“ 18 ”after rounding. Similarly, the number of rearing calves → the number of first pregnant cows 62b is the number of rearing calves → the number of first pregnant cows 43b, the number of rearing calves → the number of rearing calves 62c is the number of the rearing calves → the number of first calves 43c, The number of sold 62d is the first pregnant cow (bred →) sales rate 43d, the number of disused / dead (nurturing (beginning)) 62e is the number of disused / death (nurturing (beginning)) 43e, the number of calves (beginning) The number of cows calculated by multiplying by 61a.

  The number of changed cows 63 from the first pregnant cow (start) is calculated by multiplying the number of first pregnant cows (start) 61b by the respective probabilities set by the change rate 44 from the first pregnant cow (start) in the change rate table 40. This is an item. The number of first-pregnant cows → first-born cattle 63a is the first-pregnant cow → first-born cow rate 44a, and the number of disused / dead (first-pregnant cow (initial)) number 63b is the number of disused / dead (first-pregnant cow (initial)) 44b. (Beginning) Calculated by multiplying each number 61b.

  The number of changed cows for the first cattle (current period) 64 is an item in which the number of cows that have changed to the end of the period is calculated. The number of cattle that became the first cow in the current period is the total of breeding calf → primary pregnancy → the number of first cows 62a and the number of first cows → the number of first cows 63a. By multiplying this total by the respective probabilities set in the change rate 45 of the first cow (current period) in the change rate table 40, the number of changed cows 64 of the first cow (current period) is calculated. The number of abolished / dead (primary cattle) 64a is calculated by multiplying the number of abolished / dead (primary cattle) rate 45a, and the number of first-born cattle entry 64b is multiplied by the rate of initial cow entry 45b. For example, in the first period, the initial cow entry rate 45b “0” is set to “94”, which is the sum of “18”, which is the breeding calf → primary pregnancy → the number of first cows 62a, and “76”, which is the number of first pregnant cows → 63a. “89” rounded by “.95” is the number of first cows to enter 64b.

  The number of changed cows of the first pregnant cow (current period) 65 is an item in which the number of cows that have changed to the end of the period for the cow that became the first pregnant cow in the current period is calculated. The number of change cows 65 of the first pregnant cow (current period) is calculated by multiplying the number of breeding calves → the number of first pregnant cows 62b by the probability of the change rate 46 of the first pregnant cow (current period). The number of abolished / dead (primary cattle (bred →)) 65a is 46a, the number of disused / dead (primary cow (bred →)) is 46a, and the number of first pregnant cows (term end) 65b is a calf → the number of first pregnant cows is 62b. Calculated by multiplying by (end of term) rate 46b.

  The number of cows with a change in the number of cows 66 is calculated as the number of cows that have changed between the end of the period. Here, the cattle that are parous cows in the current term are the total of the cattle that were parous cows at the beginning of the term and the cattle that became the first cattle in the current term. First, the total number of cows 66a, which is obtained by adding the number of first cows 64b to the number of cows (starting) 61c, is calculated. By multiplying the total number of parous cows 66a by the respective probability of the rate of change 47 of parous cows, the number of changing cows 66 of parous cattle is calculated. The number of cattle sold 66b is the cattle sales rate 47a, the number of cattle mortality 66c is the cattle mortality rate 47b, and the number of cattle born (term end) 66d is the number of cattle born (term end) 47c. Is multiplied by the total number of cows 66a.

  Next, the number of live cattle 67 will be described. In the present embodiment, the total number of cattle of the number of calves 67 is calculated as being equal to the total number of cattle that deliver in the current period. That is, it is the total of the number of cattle to be delivered in the current period among breeding cattle, the number of rearing calves → primary pregnancy → the number of first cows 62a and the number of first pregnant cows → the number of first cows 63a. Here, the number of cows that are part-time cattle and are delivered in the current period is calculated by rounding the value obtained by multiplying the number of parturition cattle (beginning) number 61c by the delivery interval coefficient 41b to the first decimal place. Subsequently, the number of calvings (adjustment) 67a is calculated as the total of the number of calves to be delivered in the current period among the calves, the breeding calf → primary pregnancy → the number of first cows 62a and the number of first pregnant cows → the number of first cows 63a. The number of cattle delivered (adjustment) 67a is regarded as the total number of cattle of the number of cattle 67, and the number of cattle is calculated by multiplying this by the probability set for the birth rate 48. That is, the calf birth number 67b is multiplied by the calf birth rate 48a, the calf birth number 67c is multiplied by the calf birth rate 48b, and the calf death rate 67d is multiplied by the calving death rate 48c. Calculated.

  The number of born bulls 68 is calculated by multiplying the number of bulls born 67b by each probability set in the bull change rate 49. That is, the dairy male sales number 68a is calculated by multiplying the dairy male sales rate 49a, the Japanese beef sales number 68b by the Japanese beef sales rate 49b, and the F1 cattle sales number 68c by the F1 cattle sales rate 49c. The number of born cows 69 is the probability of the change rate 50 of the cows in the change rate table 40, that is, the breeding calf breeding number 69a is the breeding calf breeding ratio 50a, and the number of used / dead (nurturing (birth)). 69b is calculated by multiplying the abolished / dead (nurturing (birth)) rate 50b by the calf birth number 67c.

  Next, the number of cattle at the end of period 70 will be described. Information including the number of rearing calves (term end) 70a, the number of first pregnant cows (term end) 70b, and the number of parous cows (term end) 70c is stored in the term cattle count 70. The number of breeding calves (term end) 70a is the sum of the number of breeding calves that have been raised as calves in the current period to 62c and the number of breeding calves raised and raised in the current period 69a. The number of first-pregnant cows (term end) 70b is equal to the number of first-pregnant cows (term end) 65b.

  The herd evaluation table 60 also includes 71 milking cows. The number of milking cows 71 is calculated by multiplying the number of parous cows by the milking cow rate 42. However, since the item of the number of milking cows 71 in the herd evaluation table 70 is used for calculating the annual raw milk production in the management evaluation process described later, first, the milking cow rate 42 is set to the number of cows (start) 61c. The number of milking cows (at the beginning of the period) 71a and the number of milk cows (at the end of the period) 71b obtained by multiplying the number of cows produced at the end of the period 70c by the milking cow rate are respectively calculated. Subsequently, the number of milk production cows 71c, which is the average of the number of milking cows (beginning) 71a and the number of milking cows (term end) 71b, is calculated and used for calculation in the management evaluation process described later. In addition, since the number of raw milk producing cows 71c is only an average value for calculating the annual milk production, the fraction processing is not performed.

  Next, numerical values used in the management evaluation process in the embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to FIGS. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating a unit price table according to the embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 6 is a diagram showing a management evaluation table according to the embodiment of the present invention.

  The unit price table 80 is stored in the HDD 13 of the simulation apparatus 1 and is read out to the RAM 12 when the simulation is started. The unit price table 80 stores items including the raw milk production unit price 81 and the individual unit price 82. The raw milk production unit price 81 is an item including an individual milk amount 81a which is an annual raw milk production amount (unit: kg / head) per milking cow and a milk price 81b which is a unit price (unit: yen / kg) of 1 kg of raw milk. is there. The individual unit price 82 is the unit price (unit: yen / head) when one type of cattle is sold, and the unit price for dairy males 82a, the unit price for Japanese beef males 82b, the unit price for F1 males 82c, the unit price for primary cows 82d, It is an item including the cow production unit price 82e.

  The management evaluation table 90 is a table in which numerical values calculated in the management evaluation process are stored, and is provided in the RAM 12. The management evaluation table 90 stores items including raw milk production price 91, individual sales price 92 and sales 93. The raw milk production price 91 and the individual sales price 92 are calculated based on the unit price set in the unit price table 80 and the number of cows stored in the herd evaluation table 60.

  The raw milk production amount 91 is an item including the raw milk production amount 91a and the raw milk sales amount 91b. The raw milk production 91a is the total amount of raw milk produced in the current period, and is calculated as a value obtained by multiplying the number of raw milk producing cows 71c by the amount of individual milk 81a. The raw milk sales amount 91b is calculated by multiplying the raw milk production 91a by the milk price 81b, and represents the total sales amount of raw milk in the current period. In FIG. 6, the raw milk sales amount 91 b is displayed in units of 1,000 yen.

  The individual sales price 92 is an item in which the total sales price of each type of cow sold in the current period is stored. The dairy male sales 92a is the dairy male sales number 68a with the dairy male sales price 82a, the Japanese beef male sales 92b is the Japanese beef sales number 68b with the Japanese beef male sales price 82b, and the F1 male sales 92c is the F1 cattle sales number 68c. 82c is calculated by multiplying the number of first-pregnant cows 92d by the number of first-pregnant cows (bred →) sold by 62d and the number of first-born cows 92d by the number of first-born cows 92d by the number of first-time cows sold 66b The The individual sales total 92f is the total of the values from the dairy male sales 92a to the parous cow sales 92e. In FIG. 6, all the amounts included in the individual sales amount 92 are displayed in units of 1,000 yen.

  The sales amount 93 corresponds to the total sales amount in the current period, and is calculated as the total of the raw milk sales amount 91b and the individual sales total 92f. In FIG. 6, the sales amount 93 is displayed in units of thousand yen.

  Next, the cow herd evaluation process according to this embodiment will be described. FIG. 7: is a figure showing an example of the flowchart about the evaluation process of the cow group concerning embodiment of this invention. First, when the terminal 16 logs in to the simulation apparatus 1, the user inputs an initial value necessary for performing simulation through the input device of the terminal 16. The simulation apparatus 1 accepts this input via the communication interface 14 (step S1). The accepted initial value is stored in the RAM 12.

  In this embodiment, the initial value is a simulation period (for example, 5 years), which is a period for performing simulation, and the initial number of cows (initial calf calf) which is the number of cows included in each herd at the start of the simulation period. Number, number of early primiparous cattle, number of early calves), and delivery interval. The simulation period is input in units of one year, and an integer greater than or equal to 1 can be input (here, n years where n> 1 is input). The simulation period is divided from the first period to the nth period every year, and the herd evaluation process is performed in order from the first period. The initial number of cows includes the numbers of the rearing calf 21, the first pregnant cow 22 and the parous cow 23 at the start of the simulation period, and is input as an integer value of 0 or more.

  When the input of the initial value is accepted in step S1, the CPU 11 stores the initial cow number 61 in the cow herd evaluation table 60 provided in the RAM 12 (step S2). Here, it is assumed that the first period is calculated, and the initial number of cows is stored as the first number of cows 61.

  Subsequently, the CPU 11 calculates the number of cows changed from the breeding calf 21 in the current period (step S3). Step S <b> 3 is a process of calculating items included in the number of changed cows 62 from the breeding calf (beginning) in the herd evaluation table 60. As described above, the number of changed cows 62 from the breeding calf (start) is calculated by multiplying the number 61a of the breeding calf (start) by the rate of change 43 from the breeding calf (start).

  Next, the number of cows changed from the first pregnant cow 22 in the current period is calculated (step S4). Step S4 is a process of calculating items included in the number 63 of changed cows from the first pregnant cow (beginning) in the herd evaluation table 60. The number 63 of changed cows from the first pregnant cow (start) is calculated by multiplying the number 61b of first pregnant cows (start) by the rate of change 44 from the first pregnant cow (start). Subsequently, the number of cows changed from cattle that became the first cow in the current period and the number of cows changed from cows that became the first pregnant cow in the current period are calculated (step S5). The number of cows that changed from cattle that became the first cow in the current period and the number of cows that changed from cows that became the first cow in the current period are the number of cows that changed in the first cow (current period) in the herd evaluation table 60. , And the number of changed cows in the first pregnant cow (current period) 65, which are calculated in step S5.

  Next, the number of parous cows 23 in the current period is calculated (step S6). Step S <b> 6 is a process of calculating items included in the number of changed cows 66 in the cows in the herd evaluation table 60. When step S6 is completed, calculation of the number of changed cows 62 from the breeding calf (beginning) calculated in the previous steps, 63 the number of changed cows from the first pregnant cow (beginning), and 66 the number of changed cows of parous cows is calculated. Based on the result, the number of cattle born in the current period is calculated (step S7). The number of cows born in the current term is a concept including 67 live cows, 68 live bulls and 69 live cows in the herd evaluation table 60.

  Subsequently, the CPU 11 calculates the number of cows in the herd at the end of the period based on the calculation results stored in the cow evaluation table 60 (step S8). Here, the number of cows at the end of the period and the number of milking cows 71 are calculated.

  When step S8 ends, the CPU 11 performs management evaluation processing (step S9). The management evaluation process is a calculation process performed based on the number of cows in the current period stored in the herd evaluation table 60 and the sales unit price set in the unit price table 80 read out to the RAM 12. The numerical value calculated in step S8 is stored in the management evaluation table 90 provided in the RAM 12 as the sales amount for the current period.

  When step S9 is completed, it is determined whether an end condition is satisfied (step S10). That is, it is determined whether or not the calculation of the nth period is completed. In the above description, since the first period is calculated for the simulation period of n years where n> 1, No is returned in step S10 and the process returns to step S2. In this case, since the calculation of the second period is started after step S2, in step S2, the number of cattle at the end of the first period is set as the number of cattle at the beginning of the second period 61, and steps S3 to S10 are performed. Processing is performed. By the same process, the calculation up to the n-th period is repeated. When the process up to the n-th period is completed, it is determined that the end condition is satisfied (Yes in step S10), and the calculation result is transmitted to the terminal 16 (step S10). S11). When the terminal 16 receives the calculation result and the calculation result is displayed on the display screen of the terminal 16, the user can perform various herd evaluations based on the displayed calculation result.

  If the user desires to change the calculation condition based on the calculation result, the user may input the fact to the terminal 16. The calculation conditions that can be changed include the simulation period included in the initial value, the initial number of cows, and the delivery interval, but in addition to these, the sales rate of parous cows may be changeable. The information regarding the change of the input calculation condition is transmitted from the terminal device 16 to the simulation apparatus 1. When the CPU 11 of the simulation apparatus 1 accepts the information, the initial value and other calculation conditions are reset, and the herd evaluation process is performed again. Is called.

  In the above description, in order to simulate the herd fluctuation in n years, it was determined in step S10 whether or not the calculation of the n-th period was completed. However, by applying this embodiment, it is also possible to set a predetermined target value and simulate the number of years required to exceed the target value. In this case, in step S1, the initial number of cows and the delivery interval are accepted as initial values, but the simulation period is not accepted. Instead, the input of target values such as the number of cows produced, the amount of raw milk produced, or the sales amount is accepted. The cattle herd evaluation process is performed based on the received initial value, it is determined in step 10 whether or not the calculated value exceeds the target value, and the calculation process is repeated until the target value is exceeded. Can be calculated. In this case, it is preferable to set an upper limit of the iterative process in order to avoid the enormous number of calculation processes.

  Next, the optimal delivery interval evaluation process will be described. In addition to the initial values (including the initial number of calves, the number of initial calves and the initial number of calves, and the simulation period), this processing includes a target value after the simulation period (for example, n years). Accept the input of the number of rearing calves, the number of first-pregnant cows or the number of calves as the target number of cattle, and the longest delivery interval to exceed the target number of cattle in n years later, the optimal delivery interval for farm management etc. It is specified as the optimal delivery interval. The optimal calving interval is calculated as the longest calving interval that can exceed the target number of cattle in n years, so it does not reach the target number of cattle in n-1 years and exceeds the target number of cattle for the first time in n years. Will be calculated as the longest possible delivery interval.

  Since cattle deliver in accordance with the delivery interval, the number of dairy cattle 67 increases as the delivery interval is shorter when compared over the same n years. When the number of birth cattle 67 increases, the number of rearing calves, the number of first-pregnant cows, and the number of parous cows in the subsequent period increase accordingly. Therefore, in order to expand the herd, it is better to have a short delivery interval. However, a great deal of labor and cost is required to manage the delivery interval short. According to the present invention, the longest delivery interval that can exceed the set target number of cattle after n years is identified as the optimal delivery interval and presented to the user, so that the user can benefit from managing the delivery interval. And the cost can be determined, and can be used as an index when making a management judgment of the ranch or the like.

  In the present invention, the optimum delivery interval is specified only in the range from 350 days to 480 days. 350 days is the sum of the period between the delivery of a cow and the next fertility and the gestation period, and is the shortest possible delivery interval. 480 days is the sum of the maximum number of days that can be milked and the maximum number of days that can be taken as a dry milk period, that is, the longest number of days that can be taken as a delivery interval. For this reason, even if the process for specifying the optimum delivery interval is performed outside the range of 350 to 480 days, it cannot be useful as a management index for a ranch or the like and leads to an increase in the load of the simulation apparatus 1. The process of specifying the optimum delivery interval is performed only in the range from the day to 480 days.

  In the process of specifying the optimum delivery interval, it is first determined whether or not the optimum delivery interval is included in the range of 350 to 480 days. Subsequently, an upper limit value and a lower limit value of a range including the optimum delivery interval are set, and an intermediate value thereof is calculated as a provisional delivery interval. Whether the calculated number of cattle exceeds the target number of cattle by calculating the number of cattle after the simulation period by the herd evaluation process using the calculated provisional calving interval and the initial value (including the initial number of cattle and the simulation period) A determination of whether or not is made.

  Next, a specific procedure of the optimal delivery interval evaluation process will be described with reference to FIGS. FIG. 8 is an example of a flowchart of the process for evaluating the optimum delivery interval according to the present invention. FIG. 9 is an example of a flowchart showing the target achievement possibility determination processing according to the embodiment of the present invention. Here, it is assumed that the number of cows produced as a target value is set to a predetermined value.

  First, the user inputs initial values and target values necessary for performing a simulation through the input device of the terminal 16, and the simulation device 1 receives this input information via the communication interface 14 (step S21). The accepted initial value and target value are stored in the RAM 12.

  Next, the CPU 11 sets the provisional calving interval to 350 days, and calculates the number of calving cows using the provisional calving interval and the initial value received in step S21 (step S22). The calculation of the parous cow is performed based on the processing in steps S2 to S10 in FIG. 7 (the management evaluation processing in step S8 may not be performed). Subsequently, it is determined whether or not the number of cows calculated at the provisional delivery interval is smaller than the target number of cows delivered (step S23). Here, since the provisional calving interval is set to 350 days which is the theoretical minimum number of days, when it is determined that the calculated number of calvings is larger than the target number of calvings (No in step S23), It means that the number of cows of the target value is determined to be achievable with the input initial value.

  If it is determined that the number of cows calculated at the provisional delivery interval is greater than the target number of cows delivered, the optimal delivery interval is calculated (step S24). The process for calculating the optimal delivery interval will be described in detail later with reference to FIG. When the optimal delivery interval is calculated, the CPU 11 transmits the calculation result to the terminal 16 via the communication interface 14 (step S25).

  In Step S23, when it is determined that the number of cows calculated at the provisional delivery interval is smaller than the target number of cows delivered (Yes in Step S23), the delivery interval is the theoretical minimum number of days. Even if set to 350 days, the target value will not be achieved. Therefore, the calving interval is not calculated, but instead, the process of calculating the shortest number of years that can be achieved in the target number of calves is performed. (Step S26). For the calculation of the shortest years, steps S2 to S10 of FIG. 7 are used, and the calculation process is repeated until it is determined that the number of cows produced in step S10 exceeds the target number of cows produced. The period in which the calculated number of cows produced exceeds the target number of cows produced for the first time is calculated as the shortest number of years that can be achieved as the number of cows produced in step S26.

  Next, the optimal delivery interval calculation process in step S24 will be described in detail with reference to FIG. First, the CPU 11 sets the provisional calving interval as 480 days, and calculates the number of cows produced by the process of steps S2 to S10 in FIG. 7 together with the initial value stored in the RAM 12 (step S41). Subsequently, it is determined whether or not the calculated number of dairy cows is equal to or greater than the target number of dairy cows (step S42).

  If the number of calves calculated with a delivery interval of 480 is equal to or greater than the target number of calves (Yes in step S42), the target value can be achieved even with the longest delivery interval of 480 days. It will end up. In this case, the optimal delivery interval is specified to be 480 days (step S43), and the optimal delivery interval calculation process is terminated. By configuring in this way, it is possible to omit calculation processing of an unusable index, and thus it is possible to reduce the load on the CPU 11. In this case, in step S25, it is transmitted to the terminal 16 that the optimal delivery interval is 480 days.

  When it is determined that the number of cows produced in step S42 is smaller than the number of cows produced at the target value (No in step S42), the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the range in which the optimal delivery interval may be included. Is set (step S44). Here, since the optimal delivery interval is included in the range of 350 to 480 days, the upper limit value is set to 480 days and the lower limit value is set to 350 days. Subsequently, an intermediate value between the upper limit value and the lower limit value is calculated (step S45). Here, the intermediate value is an average of the upper limit value and the lower limit value, but when the value includes a decimal, it is a value obtained by discarding the decimal part.

  Subsequently, the provisional calving interval is set to an intermediate value, and the number of calves is calculated by the processing of steps S2 to S10 in FIG. 7 (step S46). Subsequently, it is determined whether or not the number of cows produced in step S46 is equal to the target number of cows produced (step S47). If the calculated number of cows produced is equal to the target number of cows produced, the optimal delivery interval is calculated as an intermediate value (step S48).

  When it is determined that the number of cows calculated in step S46 is not equal to the number of cows of the target value (No in step S47), the number of cows calculated in step S46 is the cow of the target value. It is determined whether it is larger than the number (step S49). If it is determined that the number of dairy cows is larger than the target number of dairy cows (Yes in step S49), the optimum delivery interval will be included between the intermediate value and the upper limit value. It is reset as a new lower limit value (step S50). That is, the processes from step S45 to S50 are repeated until the optimum delivery interval is specified, but when the current process is m times, the upper limit value in the m + 1th process is the same upper limit as the mth process. The m-th intermediate value is used as the m + 1-th lower limit value. If the calculated number of cattle exceeds the target number of cattle, the optimal calving interval is between the provisional calving interval and the upper limit because the calving interval can exceed the target calf count even if the calving interval is longer than this provisional calving interval. The value of will be taken. Therefore, in step S50, the intermediate value is reset as a new lower limit value, and the processing from steps S45 to S52 is performed again.

  If it is determined in step S49 that the number of cows produced in step S46 is smaller than the target number of cows produced, the intermediate value is reset as a new upper limit value (step S51). Similarly, when the current process is m times, the lower limit value in the (m + 1) th process is the same as the mth value, and the mth intermediate value is used as the (m + 1) th upper limit value. Similarly, if the calculated number of cattle falls below the target number of cattle, the optimal calving interval is a value between the provisional calving interval and the lower limit because the target calf count cannot be achieved unless the calving interval is shorter than the provisional calving interval. I will take. Therefore, in step S50, this intermediate value is reset as a new upper limit value, and the processing from steps S45 to S52 is performed again.

  Subsequently, in order to determine whether or not the range including the newly set optimal delivery interval needs to be further limited, the upper limit value is set to the lower limit value using the newly set upper limit value and lower limit value. It is determined whether or not equal to +1 (step S52). If they are not equal (No in step S52), it is necessary to further limit the range in which the optimal delivery interval is included, and the process returns to step S45. If the newly set upper limit value is equal to the lower limit value +1 (Yes in step S52), the optimal delivery interval is calculated as an integer value, so that no further limitation is necessary and the process ends. In this case, if the lower limit value is the optimum delivery interval, the number of dairy cows exceeds the target number of dairy cows, the lower limit value is calculated as the optimum delivery interval (step S53), and the optimum delivery interval calculation process is performed. Ends. When the optimal delivery interval calculation process ends, the process returns to step S25 in FIG.

  The specification of the optimal delivery interval is to specify the longest number of days among the delivery intervals that can achieve the target number of cows after the lapse of n years, which is the simulation period, and execute the processes of steps S41 to S53. Thus, although the target number of cows cannot be achieved after the elapse of n-1 years, it is possible to specify the delivery interval that can achieve the target number of cows after the elapse of n years. As the provisional delivery interval, an intermediate value between the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the range in which the optimum delivery interval may be included is used, and the processing of steps S45 to S52 is repeated, and the intermediate value changes according to the calculation result ( If the target number of cattle has not been reached, a shorter provisional calving interval is newly set. If the target number of cattle has been reached, a longer provisional calving interval is newly set.) The range of possible delivery will be limited and ultimately the optimal delivery interval will be identified. By passing through such processing, the number of times of processing of steps S2 to S10 can be about several times, leading to reduction of the processing load of the simulation apparatus 1.

  In the above embodiment, the target value is the number of calves to be raised, the number of primiparous cows, or the number of cows that have been born. However, the production amount of raw milk may be set as the target value. In this case, since the amount of raw milk production is calculated from the number of live cows, the optimal calving interval may be calculated so as to reach the target number of live cows by calculating back the target number of live cows from the target raw milk production. In the above embodiment, the initial number of cows and the target number of cows are input, and the value of each change rate is set as a fixed value to determine the optimal delivery interval. It is also possible to adopt a configuration in which the user inputs a specific delivery interval and calculates the optimum rate of change (for example, the sales rate of each cow). In this case, the optimum change rate is calculated by the same method as described with reference to FIGS.

  FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a change in the display screen of the terminal 16 according to the embodiment of the present invention. In this embodiment, when a user logs in to the simulation apparatus 1 from the terminal 16, information is transmitted from the simulation apparatus 1 to the terminal 16, and "estimate sales" and "delivery" as shown in FIG. A screen for selecting two simulation methods of “estimate interval” is displayed on the display screen 160 of the terminal 16.

  When the user selects and inputs “trial calculation of sales”, the input is transmitted from the terminal 16 to the simulation apparatus 1, and the received simulation apparatus 1 transmits screen information for inputting an initial value to the terminal 16, The terminal 16 receives this information and displays it on the display screen 160 as shown in FIG. Here, when the user inputs an initial value and selects an input button, the input initial value is transmitted from the terminal 16 to the simulation apparatus 1. The simulation apparatus 1 performs a herd evaluation process from steps S2 to S10 in FIG. 7 based on the received initial value, and transmits a calculation result to the terminal 16 in step S10.

  The terminal 16 displays the received calculation result on the display screen 160 as shown in FIG. In the calculation result, a graph 161 representing the change in sales during the simulation period and a table 162 representing the change in sales and each herd in the simulation period are displayed. The user performs management evaluation of the ranch based on the graph 161 and the table 162 displayed on the display screen 160.

  If the user wishes to change the calculation condition and perform the simulation again, the user can change the calculation condition by selecting and inputting the “change condition” button 163. Here, the changeable calculation conditions are not limited to the initial value, and the sales rate of the first pregnant cows, the parous cows, etc. may be changed as shown in FIG. When information related to the change of the calculation condition is input to the terminal 16, the input information is transmitted to the simulation apparatus 1, and the received simulation apparatus 1 performs a herd evaluation process based on the changed calculation condition. The calculation result obtained based on the changed calculation condition is transmitted to the terminal 16 again and displayed on the display screen 160 of the terminal 16 as shown in FIG.

  When the user selects and inputs “estimate delivery interval”, the input is transmitted from the terminal 16 to the simulation apparatus 1, and the received simulation apparatus 1 provides the terminal 16 with screen information for inputting the initial value and the target value. The terminal 16 receives this information and displays it on the display screen 160 as shown in FIG. Here, when the user inputs an initial value and a target value and selects an input button, the input initial value and target value are transmitted from the terminal 16 to the simulation apparatus 1. The simulation apparatus 1 performs the optimum delivery interval evaluation process of FIGS. 8 and 9 based on the received initial value and target value, and transmits the calculation result to the terminal 16 in step S25.

  The terminal 16 displays the received calculation result on the display screen 160 as shown in FIG. In the calculation result, in addition to the calculation result 164 of the optimal delivery interval, a graph 161 that represents the change in sales during the simulation period and a table 162 that represents the change in sales and cattle herd during the simulation period are displayed. The user performs management evaluation of the ranch based on the calculation result displayed on the display screen 160.

  If the user wishes to change the calculation condition and perform the simulation again, the user can change the calculation condition by selecting and inputting the “change condition” button 165. Here, the changeable calculation conditions are not limited to the initial values, and the sales rate of the first pregnant cows, parous cows, etc. may be changed as shown in FIG. When information related to the change of the calculation condition is input to the terminal 16, the simulation apparatus 1 performs an optimal delivery interval evaluation process based on the changed calculation condition. The calculation result obtained based on the changed calculation condition is displayed on the display screen 160 of the terminal 16 as shown in FIG.

  In addition to the above-described embodiment, it may be configured such that the purchase or sale of each category of cattle can be set as appropriate. Which classification of cattle is important to buy or sell depends greatly on the farm management policy. The management policy of the ranch is to focus on expanding the number of heads, to keep the number of heads constant, to purchase young cattle and sell old-aged cattle, and to sell cows as beef cattle Various policies such as a policy that emphasizes Therefore, the change rate table 40 that follows a typical management policy may be set in advance, and the user may select it. Further, the user may be able to partially change the set values of the change rate table 40.

  In the above embodiment, the management evaluation process is configured to calculate sales, but it may be configured to calculate profit instead of sales. In this case, a cost table with costs such as feed and purchase costs for each category of cattle, construction and maintenance costs for facilities such as barns, and labor costs is set, and profits are calculated based on this. It can be set as the structure to do.

  In the above embodiment, the herd has been described, but it can be applied to other animals. When applied to other animals, the set values of the change rate table and the unit price table may be changed to appropriate values. For example, in the case of animals (goats, etc.) whose pregnancy period is about 5 months, the present invention can be applied by changing the rate of change for the first-pregnant cow and the delivery interval, and changing one period to half a year. it can. In addition, for animals that usually give birth to a large number of pups in a single delivery (for example, pigs), the rate of change is calculated by multiplying the average number of pups delivered at one time by the number of delivery animals. The number of births may be calculated by multiplying the birth rate in the table.

1 Simulation device 11 CPU
12 RAM
13 HDD
14 Communication Interface 15 Communication Network 16 Terminal 40 Change Rate Table 60 Cattle Herd Evaluation Table 80 Unit Price Table 90 Management Evaluation Table

Claims (7)

Within a given group of animals with multiple animals, the number of parous animals with experience of delivery, the number of non-paremic animals with no experience of delivery and no pregnancy, and the first pregnancy with the first pregnancy A simulation device for calculating a change in a predetermined period of the number of animals,
Storage means for storing the number of parotiated animals at the beginning of the predetermined period, the number of non-parivial animals at the beginning and the number of prime pregnant animals at the beginning, and the delivery interval in the group of animals;
Based on the number of non-pariparous animals at the beginning stored in the storage means, the number of first primiparous animals that deliver for the first time after pregnancy within the predetermined period, and primiparous animals within the predetermined period A non-pariparous animal change number calculating means for calculating the number of primary pregnant animals at the end of the period and the number of first non-pariparous animals that do not change within the predetermined period;
Based on the number of initial pregnant animals stored by the storage means, the number of first pregnant animal changes calculating means for calculating the number of second first-born animals performing the first delivery within the predetermined period;
Number of first-time parous animals memorized by the memory means, first first-born animals number calculated by the non-parinatal-animal change number calculating means, and second first-born animals calculated by the first pregnant animal change number calculating means Based on the number of
The number of first primiparous animals calculated by means of calculating the number of changes in nonpariparous animals, the number of second primiparous animals calculated by means of calculating the number of changes in primiparous animals, and the first-time births memorized by the storage means Live animal number calculating means for calculating the number of live animals that can be born within the predetermined period based on the number of animals and the delivery interval;
Based on the number of first non-pariparous animals calculated by the means for calculating the number of non-pariparous animals and the number of live animals calculated by the means for calculating the number of live animals, A simulation apparatus comprising: a term-end non-parinatal animal number calculating means for calculating the number of animals born. The storage means is a ratio of a first-born animal that becomes a first-born animal within the predetermined period, and a ratio that a first-time non-native animal becomes a first-born animal after pregnancy within the predetermined period. Further storing a first rate of first-born animals and a second rate of first-born animals, which is a ratio of the first-stage first-born animals becoming first-born animals within the predetermined period,
The means for calculating the number of changes in non-pariparous animals calculates the number of primiparous animals at the end of the period based on the rate of primiparous animals memorized by the memory means and the number of non-parinatal animals at the beginning of the period. The number of first primiparous animals was calculated based on the ratio of the first primiparous animals and the number of non-pariparous animals at the beginning of the period,
The number of first primiparous animals is calculated based on the number of first primiparous animals stored in the storage unit and the number of first primiparous animals at the beginning of the period. Item 2. The simulation apparatus according to Item 1. The storage means further stores a milked animal rate, which is the proportion of parable animals that can be milked;
Simulation equipment
Based on the number of parotiated animals at the beginning of the period memorized by the storage means, the number of parotiated animals at the end of the period calculated by the means for calculating the number of parotid animals and the ratio of milking animals, the number of milking animals that can be milked is calculated. Means for calculating the number of milking animals to be calculated;
A milk amount calculating means for calculating a milk amount that can be shipped within the predetermined period based on the number of milking animals calculated by the number of milking animals. 2. The simulation apparatus according to 2. Simulation equipment
Input receiving means for receiving an input from a user about a simulation period that is an integer multiple of the predetermined period;
The number of pariparous animals at the beginning of the period, the number of non-parivial animals at the beginning of the period, and the number of primary pregnant animals at the beginning of the period, which were stored in the storage means, respectively, were calculated by the means of calculating the number of paranatal animals. Update means to update the number of animals, the number of non-parivial animals at the end of the period calculated by the means for calculating the number of non-pariparous animals at the end of the period, and the number of first-pregnant animals at the end of the period calculated by the means for calculating the number of non-pariparous animals And
Means for calculating the number of non-parivial animals and means for calculating the number of primary animals based on the updated number of pariparous animals, number of non-parivial animals at the beginning, and number of primary pregnant animals at the beginning By repeating the calculation corresponding to the whole number by the calculation corresponding to the integer, the calculation by the parous animal change count calculation means, the birth animal count calculation means and the term non-parinatal animal count calculation means, and the update by the update means are repeated. 4. The simulation apparatus according to claim 1, 2 or 3, wherein the number of born animals, the number of non-pariparous animals at the end of the period, and the number of first pregnant animals at the end of the period are calculated. The delivery interval is a provisional delivery interval that is temporarily set,
Simulation equipment
A target number receiving means for receiving a target number for the number of pariparous animals at the end of the simulation period, the number of non-parivial animals at the end of the period, or the number of primary pregnant animals at the end of the period according to the user's input;
Based on the provisional parturition interval, calculation by means of non-pariparous animal change number calculation means, primiparous animal change number calculation means, parous animal change number calculation means, birth animal number calculation means and term-end non-parinatal animal number calculation means, In addition, the update by the update means is repeated a number of times corresponding to the integer, thereby calculating the number of pariparous animals at the end of the simulation period, the number of non-parivials at the end of the period, and the number of primary pregnant animals at the end of the period. A calculation means;
The number of pariparous animals at the end of the simulation period, the number of non-parivial animals at the end of the period, or the number of primary pregnant animals at the end of the period after the simulation period calculated by the provisional calculation means reaches the target number accepted by the target number acceptance means. Means for determining whether or not the target is achieved,
If it is determined that the target number has not been reached by the target achievement determination means, a shorter provisional delivery interval is newly set, and if it is determined that the target number has been reached, it is set longer. Provisional delivery interval setting means for newly setting the provisional delivery interval;
Based on the new provisional delivery interval set by the provisional delivery interval setting means, the provisional calculation means uses the provisional calculation means to determine the number of pariparous animals at the end of the period, the number of non-parinatal animals at the end of the period, and the primary pregnant animals at the end of the period. The provisional delivery interval setting means, the provisional calculation means, the achievement of the goal is achieved until the longest delivery interval is reached, at which the provisional delivery interval is determined to have reached the target number 5. The simulation apparatus according to claim 4, further comprising optimum delivery interval specifying means for repeating the determination by the determination means and specifying an optimum delivery interval for achieving the target number. Within a given group of animals with multiple animals, the number of parous animals with experience of delivery, the number of non-paremic animals with no experience of delivery and no pregnancy, and the first pregnancy with the first pregnancy A simulation method for causing a computer device to calculate a variation in a predetermined period of the number of animals,
Storing in the storage area the number of pariparous animals at the beginning of the predetermined period, the number of nonpariparous animals at the beginning and the number of prime pregnant animals at the beginning, and the calving interval of the pariparous animals in the group of animals;
Based on the number of non-pariparous animals at the beginning stored in the storage area, the number of first primiparous animals that deliver for the first time after pregnancy within the predetermined period, primiparous animals within the predetermined period Calculating the number of primary pregnant animals at the end of the period and the number of first nonpariogenic animals that do not change within the predetermined period;
Calculating the number of second primiparous animals performing the first delivery within the predetermined period based on the number of primordial animals at the beginning stored in the storage area;
Calculate the number of pariparous animals at the end of the period based on the number of first-time parous animals stored in the memory area, the calculated number of first-born animals, and the calculated number of second-born animals Steps,
Based on the calculated number of first primiparous animals, the calculated number of second primiparous animals, and the number of parinatal animals and the delivery interval stored in the memory area, Calculating the number of live animals that can be born;
And calculating the number of non-pariparous animals at the end of the predetermined period based on the calculated number of first non-pariparous animals and the calculated number of birth animals. A characteristic simulation method. Within a given group of animals with multiple animals, the number of parous animals with experience of delivery, the number of non-paremic animals with no experience of delivery and no pregnancy, and the first pregnancy with the first pregnancy A simulation system comprising a server device that calculates fluctuations in a predetermined period for the number of animals, and a terminal device capable of communicating with the server device via a communication network,
The terminal device
Input accepting means for accepting an input of the number of pariparous animals at the beginning of the predetermined period, the number of non-parivial animals at the beginning and the number of prime pregnant animals at the beginning, and the delivery interval in the animal group according to the user's input When,
An information transmission means for transmitting the number of pariparous animals at the beginning accepted by the input accepting unit, the number of non-parivial animals at the beginning and the number of primary pregnant animals at the beginning, and the delivery interval to the server device;
Server device
An information receiving means for receiving the number of parotiated animals at the beginning transmitted from the terminal device, the number of non-pariparous animals at the beginning and the number of first pregnant animals at the beginning, and the delivery interval;
Based on the number of non-pariparous animals at the beginning received by the information receiving means, the number of first primiparous animals that deliver for the first time after pregnancy within the predetermined period, and the first pregnancy within the predetermined period. A non-parinatal change number calculating means for calculating the number of first-pregnant animals at the end of the period to be animals and the number of first non-pariparous animals that do not change within the predetermined period;
Based on the number of initial pregnant animals received by the information receiving means, the number of first pregnant animal changes calculating means for calculating the number of second first-born animals performing the first delivery within the predetermined period;
The number of first-time parous animals received by the information receiving means, the first number of first-born animals calculated by the non-parinatal-animal change number calculating means, and the second first-born data calculated by the first pregnant animal change number calculating means Based on the number of animals, a means of calculating the number of parotiated animals that calculates the number of parotiated animals at the end of the period,
The number of first primiparous animals calculated by the non-pariparous animal change number calculating means, the second number of first born animals calculated by the first pregnant animal change number calculating means, and the initial time received by the information receiving means A means for calculating the number of live animals, which calculates the number of live animals that can be born within the predetermined period based on the number of live animals and the delivery interval;
Based on the number of first non-pariparous animals calculated by the means for calculating the number of non-pariparous animals and the number of live animals calculated by the means for calculating the number of live animals, A simulation system comprising: a period-end non-parivial animal number calculating means for calculating the number of animals born.

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