JP5476275B2 - Water distribution plan prediction system, prediction method thereof, and program thereof - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a water distribution amount plan prediction system that collects information on a water plant and predicts a water distribution amount plan of the plant, a prediction method thereof, and a program thereof.

Conventionally, when a water distribution pattern of a water supply field is calculated, the calculation is performed based on a result obtained by calculating a complicated arithmetic expression from the subdivided data that is the data of the accumulated water plant.
For example, Patent Document 1 considers a predetermined period and season of the prediction target date, and Patent Document 2 discloses a technique for performing demand prediction and prediction correction using water distribution network analysis means and fuzzy reasoning means. .

JP 2007-272911 A JP 2006-104777 A

  By the way, to reduce the deviation between the predicted water distribution plan pattern created from the plant information actual value file and the actually measured water distribution at a water supply station that is monitoring water distribution according to the predicted water distribution plan pattern, It is necessary to store long-term plant performance data for creating water distribution plan patterns and to manage data subdivided into days of the week, holidays / weekdays, weather, and so on.

In addition, there is a problem that an arithmetic expression for extracting correction data from the actual data of the water plant is complicated.
In order to perform such processing efficiently, it is desirable to install a dedicated processing device, but there is a problem that the cost of the dedicated processing device is high due to the use of complicated arithmetic expressions and the like, and the cost increases. For this reason, it is difficult to install a dedicated treatment device in terms of cost at a water supply station that only monitors water distribution.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and it is an object of the present invention to provide a water distribution amount plan prediction system, a prediction method thereof, and a program thereof capable of reducing a deviation between a predicted water distribution amount plan pattern and a measured water distribution amount result at a low cost. And

In order to achieve the above object, a water distribution plan prediction system according to the first aspect of the present invention is a water distribution plan prediction system for creating a water distribution plan for supplying water from a water supply facility to a consumer, based on the information of the actual water distribution amount of the actual value obtained in time-series, the day to create a water distribution planning pattern, which is a water distribution amount of prediction of the future is, in the case of a public holiday, 3 of prior to the date of the creation In the case of a weekday that is a day other than a national holiday, the actual amount of water distribution at the same time on the previous Saturday in the period of 8 weeks is obtained . determine the distribution amount actual value of the time, the calculated said that the average the day of the water distribution planning pattern of water distribution amount actual value at the same time, water distribution amount which is the prediction of the distribution of future predetermined period Water distribution plan creation unit for creating a plan pattern, and the water distribution meter for the prediction When the deviation between the pattern and the actual measured water distribution amount deviates from the predetermined allowable deviation range, the predicted water distribution plan pattern for the future predetermined period is corrected so that the deviation from the actual actual water amount actual value is reduced. A water distribution plan prediction pattern correction unit that performs the future distribution using the average value of the difference between the water distribution plan pattern of the prediction in the past and the actually measured water distribution amount actual value. When the predicted water distribution plan pattern for a predetermined period is corrected, and the deviation between the corrected water distribution plan pattern and the actual measured water distribution actual value deviates from the allowable deviation range, the corrected water distribution plan pattern and the The correction for changing the water distribution amount of the corrected water distribution plan pattern is performed using a correction coefficient so that the deviation from the actual measured water distribution actual value falls within the allowable deviation range .

A prediction method of a distribution amount plan prediction system according to the second aspect of the present invention is a prediction method of a distribution amount plan prediction system that creates a distribution amount plan for supplying drinking water from a water supply facility to a consumer, water distribution planning prediction system is provided with a water distribution planning prediction pattern correcting unit and the water supply amount plan generator, wherein the water distribution planning creation unit based on the information of when the actual water distribution amount actual value acquired in time series, the future If the day for creating the water distribution plan pattern, which is the predicted water distribution amount, is a national holiday , the actual amount of water distribution at the same time on the previous Saturday in the period of 3 to 8 weeks before the date of creation is obtained . On the other hand, in the case of a weekday that is a day other than a public holiday, a water distribution amount actual value at the same time in the past on the same day in the period of 3 to 8 weeks before the day to be created is obtained, and The average of the actual water distribution amount is the water distribution plan pattern of the day. And in, to create a distribution planning pattern a prediction of the distribution of future predetermined period, said water distribution planning prediction pattern correction unit, deviation between water distribution amount actual values measured with water distribution planning pattern of the prediction If a departure from the allowable deviation range, such displacement of the actual water distribution amount actual value distribution planning patterns of prediction of a predetermined period of the future is reduced, distribution was measured with distribution planning pattern of the prediction in the past Using the average value of the deviation from the actual water volume value, the predicted water distribution plan pattern for the future predetermined period is corrected, and the deviation between the corrected water distribution plan pattern and the current actual measured water quantity value is an allowable deviation. When deviating from the range, the corrected water distribution plan pattern is corrected using a correction coefficient so that the deviation between the corrected water distribution plan pattern and the actual measured water distribution actual value falls within the allowable deviation range. Correction is performed to change the water distribution amount.

  The program of the water distribution amount plan prediction system according to the third aspect of the present invention is a program for causing a computer to execute the prediction method of the water distribution amount plan prediction system according to the second aspect of the present invention.

  As described above, according to the present invention, it is possible to reduce a deviation between a water distribution plan pattern predicted at an inexpensive cost and an actual water distribution actual result.

1 is an overall configuration diagram of a water distribution monitoring system according to an embodiment of the present invention. The water distribution plan data extraction / correction | amendment calculation flowchart of embodiment. (a) is a graph of the forecast water distribution plan before the correction, the allowable deviation range upper limit value pattern and the allowable deviation range lower limit value pattern, and the predicted water distribution plan before the correction showing the actual amount of water distribution. b) is a corrected distribution plan graph showing the predicted water distribution plan pattern after correction, the allowable deviation range upper limit value pattern and the allowable deviation range lower limit value pattern, and the actual water distribution amount.

Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
FIG. 1 shows an overall configuration of a water distribution monitoring system S according to an embodiment of the present invention.
The water distribution monitoring system S of the embodiment targets a plant 26 of a water supply facility that performs water distribution monitoring based on a water distribution plan.

  The plant 26 feeds water from a water reservoir A19 to which clean water is sent from a water purification plant (not shown) to a water reservoir B22 through an inflow valve 21 by a pump 20, and water is supplied from the water reservoir B22 to general consumers 25. Water is distributed. In addition, the actual plant (waterworks facilities) 26 is a form in which a plurality of the present plants are connected, and the plant 26 is one model plant.

Downstream of the reservoir B22, a flow meter 23 for measuring the flow rate (water distribution amount) to be supplied to the general consumer 25 and a pressure gauge 24 for measuring the pressure in the pipe for supplying water to the general customer 25 are provided. ing.
The water distribution monitoring system S has a small deviation from the actual water distribution when the deviation from the actual value of the water distribution plan for the future prediction of the water supply supplied from the plant 26 to the general consumer 25 deviates from the allowable deviation range. This is a system that creates a forecasted water distribution plan with little deviation from the actual value.

  For this reason, the water distribution monitoring system S includes a monitoring control device 16, which creates a future water distribution plan for the future prediction from the plant 26 to the general consumer 25, and the deviation from the water distribution result value. When the deviation deviates from the allowable deviation range, the predicted water distribution plan is corrected, and the predicted water distribution plan within the allowable deviation range is output.

The plant 26 of the water supply facility is connected to the monitoring control device 16 via the input / output control device 15, the communication control device 14, the communication line 13, the communication control device 12, and the like. Thereby, a measurement value such as a flow rate of the flow meter 23 of the plant 26 is acquired by the monitoring control device 16.
Connected to the monitoring control device 16 are an input device 2 such as a keyboard, a mouse, and a touch panel for a monitor (user) to input, and a display device 1 for displaying to the monitor.

  The monitoring and control device 16 includes a plant information memory 10 in which data on the actual distribution amount (flow rate) actually measured by the flow meter 23 of the plant 26 is input at a predetermined cycle (for example, one minute cycle), and a predicted distribution plan pattern. A cycle timer 18 for setting a cycle for creating (see FIG. 3A), and a schedule processing unit 17 for creating and managing a schedule for creating and correcting a water distribution plan pattern in the cycle (the process of FIG. 2) And an actual value collection processing unit 9 that collects data of actual water distribution amount (flow rate) collected in the plant information memory 10, and plant information in which the collected actual water amount actual data is accumulated in association with the system date. The actual value file 8 is provided.

In addition, the monitoring control device 16 creates a water distribution plan for future prediction and corrects and outputs when the deviation is larger than the actual value, and inputs setting information and the like from the input device 2 A setting information import processing unit 3 that captures information, a screen display processing unit 4 that outputs information such as a prediction processing unit 27 and a plant information actual value file 8 as screen information to the display device 1 are provided.
The setting information capture processing unit 3 outputs input information such as setting information from the input device 2 to the schedule processing unit 17, the plant information actual value file 8, and the prediction processing unit 27.

  The prediction processing unit 27 of the monitoring control device 16 includes a prediction pattern plan processing unit 7 that creates a water distribution plan pattern for future prediction based on information in the plant information actual value file 8, and a water distribution plan pattern for the prediction that has been created. Prediction pattern correction calculation that performs correction based on the actual distribution amount information stored in the plant information memory 10 so as to be within the allowable deviation range from the actual value, and outputs the corrected predicted distribution amount plan pattern Water distribution in the temporary storage area in which the predicted water distribution plan pattern created by the processing unit 5 and the prediction pattern plan processing unit 7 and the corrected water distribution plan pattern after correction output from the prediction pattern correction calculation processing unit 5 are stored. And a prediction pattern memory 6.

<Hardware of Monitoring and Control Device 16>
The monitoring control device 16 is a computer such as a high-spec (high-spec) PC or server including a FAPC (Factory Personal Computer), a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a RAM (Random Access Memory), a flash memory, an HDD (Hard Disk drive) and other memory.

  A control program for the water distribution monitoring system S is stored in the memory, and when the CPU executes the control program for the water distribution monitoring system S, the prediction processing unit 27, the schedule processing unit 17, the actual value collection processing unit 9, and the setting Functions such as the information capture processing unit 3 and the screen display processing unit 4 are embodied.

Further, the plant information actual value file 8 is stored in the memory as a storage unit such as a database including a table format and an object format. In addition, in the memory, a plant information memory 10 and a water distribution prediction pattern memory 6 are stored as a storage area such as a temporary file.
The plant information actual value file 8 stores data items such as date, day of the week, holiday / weekday classification, time (time), actual water distribution actual value (flow rate) measured by the flow meter 23, and the like.

<Functions of water distribution monitoring system S>
The daily water demand pattern of the general customer 25 generally depends on the day of the week from the life pattern (for example, Monday is the beginning of the week, Friday is the weekend, and Saturday and Sunday are the holiday life patterns). On the other hand, the water demand of the general consumer 25 varies depending on the weather, temperature, humidity, and the like. For example, when the weather is good, the temperature is high, and the humidity is low, the amount of water demand increases. On the other hand, when the weather is bad, the temperature is low, and the humidity is high, the amount of water demand decreases.

In the water distribution monitoring system S, information on the actually measured water distribution amount pattern (flow rate) is collected by the input / output control device 15 installed on the plant 26 side and output to the communication control device 14, and the communication line 13, communication The information is input to the communication control unit 11 of the monitoring control device 16 via the control device 12.
The plant information memory 10 of the monitoring control device 16 stores the latest plant information (information on the actually measured distribution amount pattern (flow rate)) input from the communication control unit 11 as an instantaneous value.

  The actual value collection processing unit 9 is activated in a predetermined cycle (for example, one minute cycle), and converts the plant information (information on the actual distribution amount actual pattern (flow rate)) stored in the plant information memory 10 into time series. Are stored in the plant information actual value file 8 for a period (for example, several weeks) set every day in a predetermined cycle (for example, in units of one minute). The actual value collection processing unit 9 calculates the day of the week and holiday / weekday division from the system date and time information in the supervisory control device 16, and records the day of the week and holiday / weekday division in the plant information actual value file 8. .

  In the plant information actual value file 8, information that affects the magnitude of water demand such as weather, temperature, and humidity in units of one day set by the monitor (user) from the input device 2 is received from the setting information import processing unit 3. Acquired and accumulated.

  In addition, information that affects the magnitude of water demand, such as weather, temperature, humidity, etc. in units of one day, without the monitor (user) input, various measuring instruments are provided to acquire each information, and plant information results It may be accumulated in the value file 8. Or you may accumulate | store each information in the plant information performance value file 8 from another system. In addition, each information may be stored in the plant information actual value file 8 through a communication line online, and any aspect of acquiring information that affects the amount of water demand such as weather, temperature, and humidity in units of one day may be used. But you can.

The prediction pattern plan processing unit 7 is activated by the schedule processing unit 17 at a cycle (for example, 30 minutes to 1 hour cycle) set in the cycle timer 18 from the input device 2 and is stored in the plant information actual value file 8. Based on the past water distribution actual value (actually measured flow rate), create a water distribution plan pattern for today's future forecast for water distribution monitoring for a predetermined period (for example, one day) (see Figure 2 below) The process of extracting future water distribution plan data) is stored in the water distribution prediction pattern memory 6.
The predicted pattern correction calculation processing unit 5 compares the predicted water distribution plan pattern stored in the water distribution prediction pattern memory 6 with the information of the actually measured water distribution amount (flow rate) stored in the plant information actual value file 8. When the deviation deviates from the allowable deviation range automatically set by the input device 2 or the system, the predicted water distribution amount plan pattern in the water distribution prediction pattern memory 6 is corrected (correction calculation processing in FIG. 2 described later).

Specifically, the prediction pattern correction calculation processing unit 5 calculates the deviation between the past actual water distribution amount actual value for the set period (for example, one day) and the predicted water distribution amount plan pattern, and the respective deviations. The water distribution plan pattern of today's future forecast is automatically corrected with the average value of.
Generally, the data extracted from the plant information actual value file 8 by the prediction pattern planning processing unit 7 is the same as the data stored in the plant information actual value file 8 such as accumulated weather, temperature, and humidity increases. The deviation of the data between the actually measured water distribution actual value under the condition and the predicted water distribution plan pattern is reduced. However, the calculation is performed using data that does not consider the current season (spring, summer, autumn and winter).

Therefore, if the average value of the data extracted from the plant information actual value file 8 under the same time condition in the number of months retroactively set from today, the same day of the week is the same as the holiday / weekday classification, Since the data is in the season close to (most recent), the deviation between the predicted water distribution plan pattern and the actual water distribution actual value can be reduced.
When the deviation deviates from the allowable deviation range set from the input device 2 even after correction, the deviation is within the allowable deviation range by arbitrarily manually setting the correction coefficient from the input device 2 or automatically by the system. Adjust as follows.

<Future water distribution plan data extraction and correction calculation processing>
Next, calculation (prediction) of future water distribution amount plan data of the plant 26 of the water supply facility performed by the water distribution monitoring system S and its correction calculation processing will be described with reference to FIG.
As described above, the future water distribution plan data extraction and correction calculation processing in FIG. 2 is performed at a cycle (for example, a cycle of 30 minutes to 1 hour) set in the cycle timer 18 from the input device 2. 17, the prediction pattern planning processing unit 7 performs S (steps) 101 to S106 in FIG. 2, and the prediction pattern correction calculation processing unit 5 performs S (steps) 108 and S109. is there.
For example, the processing shown in FIG. 2 is performed in a short 30-minute cycle for meals and bathing that use a lot of water, and in a one-hour cycle in a time zone that does not use much water.

In S101 of FIG. 2, it is determined whether today is a holiday. That is, it is determined whether today is a holiday or Monday to Sunday, which is a day other than a holiday.
If today is determined to be a holiday (Yes in S101), the most recent Saturday in the past is extracted from the plant information actual value file 8 in S102, and the set number of months is traced back there in S104. The actual water distribution actual value (flow rate measured by the flow meter 23) at the same time on Saturday in the number of months is extracted from the plant information actual value file 8. Here, since the actual amount of water distribution on holidays is closest to Saturday, the actual amount of water distribution on Saturday is used in the case of public holidays.
In FIG. 2, the case of going back to the past for the set number of months in S103 to S105 is exemplified as going back to the past for one month.

On the other hand, if it is determined in S101 that today is not a holiday but a weekday (Monday to Sunday other than a holiday) (No in S101), in S103, the plant information actual value file 8 sets the number of months in the past. It is determined whether or not there is a holiday category between the number of months gone back. In the following, the term weekday refers to Monday to Sunday other than holidays.
If it is determined that there is a holiday category (Yes in S103), that day is excluded from the target in S105, and the holiday / day of the same day of the week goes back in the past for the set number of months (shown as one month in FIG. 2). The data of the water distribution actual value at the same time with the same weekday classification is extracted from the plant information actual value file 8.

On the other hand, in S103, if it is determined that there is no holiday division between the number of months set from today (shown as one month in FIG. 2) and the number of months going back in the past (No in S103), in S104 For the set number of months from today (shown as one month in Fig. 2), the actual water distribution actual value (flow rate) data for the same day of the week is the same day of the week and the holiday / weekday classification is the same. Extract from the plant information result value file 8.
In S106, the actual water distribution amount actual value (flow rate actually measured by the flowmeter 23) extracted in the period set in S104 and S105 is averaged to create a water distribution plan pattern for today that is a future prediction. To do.

  Subsequently, in S107, the monitoring person (user) sets an allowable deviation range between the predicted water distribution plan pattern and the actual water distribution actual value (actually measured flow rate) from the input device 2. The permissible deviation range is not set by the supervisor (user), but is set automatically in the system by setting the permissible deviation range in advance in a table, taking into account various conditions such as the actual water distribution, climate, and region. You may comprise as follows.

In S108, the deviation of the present (time) between the water distribution plan pattern of the future forecast obtained in S106 and the actual water distribution actual value (measured flow rate) extracted today from the plant information actual value file 8 ( It is determined whether the deviation is within the set allowable deviation range.
When the deviation (deviation) deviates from the set allowable range (No in S108), correction calculation is performed on the water distribution amount plan pattern data of the future prediction obtained in S106 in S109.

  The correction coefficient used in the correction calculation in S109 is the actual water distribution actual value (measured flow rate) extracted in the set cycle of the past predetermined period (for example, one day) retroactive from the present and the predicted water distribution amount. The average value of deviation from the planned pattern is used, and the predicted water distribution amount planned pattern is corrected by this average value. For example, the average value is added if the actual measured amount of water distribution (actually measured flow rate) is smaller than the predicted distribution amount plan pattern, and if it is larger, the average value is subtracted and corrected. The predetermined period in the past going back from the present time may be set to other than one day, and can be set as appropriate.

Thereafter, the process proceeds to S108, where it is determined whether or not the currently measured water distribution actual value (measured flow rate) and the corrected water distribution plan pattern value are within the set allowable deviation range.
If the correction calculation deviates from the setting range (No in S108), the monitoring operator (user) sets the correction coefficient from the input device 2 in S110, and the correction calculation including the correction coefficient is performed in S109. Run.

In addition, when it deviates from the setting range even if correction calculation is performed (No in S108), the monitoring coefficient (user) sets the correction coefficient in the system without setting the correction coefficient from the input device 2 in S110. It may be configured to automatically set so as to fall within the allowable deviation range based on.
If the amount of deviation does not fall within the allowable deviation range by automatic setting, the monitoring staff (user) is notified from the input device 2 by notifying the monitoring staff (user) with a warning sound, e-mail, etc. A correction coefficient may be set.

Thus, when it deviates from the permissible deviation range set up in S107 (No in S108), it corrects (S109) and calculates (calculates) a new future forecast water distribution plan pattern (S109).
The above is the flow of the calculation of the water distribution amount plan data and the correction calculation process shown in FIG.

In FIG. 3 (a), the predicted water distribution plan pattern (A) before correction, the allowable deviation range upper limit value pattern (B) and the allowable deviation range lower limit value pattern (C), and the actual water distribution amount (measured) Flow rate) (D).
Further, FIG. 3 (b) shows a predicted water distribution plan pattern (A1) after correction at the current time, an allowable deviation range upper limit value pattern (B1) and an allowable deviation range lower limit value pattern (C1), The actual water volume (D) is shown.

  Comparing and contrasting the current time and later, the water distribution plan pattern (A), allowable deviation range upper limit value pattern (B), and allowable deviation range lower limit value pattern (C) in FIG. It can be seen that the water distribution plan pattern (A1), the allowable deviation range upper limit value pattern (B1), and the allowable deviation range lower limit value pattern (C1) in FIG.

According to the above configuration, when the predicted water distribution plan pattern of the future has a deviation (deviation) from the actual water distribution value (measured flow rate), it is easily predicted without performing complicated correction value extraction processing. It is possible to correct the water distribution plan pattern.
Therefore, it is possible to obtain a water distribution plan prediction system, its prediction method, and its program that can reduce the deviation (displacement) between the predicted water distribution plan pattern and the actual distribution amount actual result at low cost of equipment etc. Is possible.

  In addition, in the said embodiment, although the case where the period of the predicted water distribution plan pattern was 1 day was illustrated, several days may be sufficient and the period of prediction of a predicted water distribution plan pattern can be set suitably. However, the period of the forecasted water distribution plan pattern is more desirable because it is short in one day and correction is more effective (accurate) and requires less storage capacity.

  Moreover, in FIG. 2, although the case where the forecasted water distribution plan pattern is created based on the water distribution amount actual value of the number of months traced back in the past by any set number of months, the period of the set number of months is, for example, If it is set to 3 to 8 weeks, the reliability of the data can be maintained and the capacity of the plant information actual value file 8 does not increase, which is more desirable.

  In addition, in the said embodiment, although the case where the plant information performance value file 8 was stored in the monitoring control apparatus 16 was illustrated, you may store in a separate database server and it does not necessarily store in the monitoring control apparatus 16. Also good.

  In the embodiment, the case where the processing of the water distribution monitoring system S is realized by a computer (software) is exemplified. However, at least a part of the processing is implemented by a circuit (hardware such as an IC (Integrated Circuit) or LSI (Large Scale Integration)). If the function of the water distribution monitoring system S can be realized, the embodiment can be appropriately selected and is not limited.

3 Setting information import processing part (water distribution plan prediction pattern correction part)
5 Prediction pattern correction calculation processing unit (Water distribution plan prediction pattern correction unit)
7 Predictive pattern plan processing unit (distribution amount plan creation unit)
9 Actual value collection processing part (distribution amount plan creation part, distribution amount plan prediction pattern correction part)
17 Schedule processing department (Distribution amount planning department)
19 Reservoir A (water supply facilities)
20 Pump (water supply facilities)
21 Inlet valve (water supply facilities)
22 Reservoir B (water supply facilities)
23 Flow meter (water supply facilities)
24 Pressure gauge (water supply facilities)
25 General consumers (customers)
26 Plant (water supply facilities)
A Water distribution plan pattern B Allowable deviation range upper limit value pattern C Allowable deviation range lower limit value pattern D Water distribution actual value S Water distribution monitoring system (water distribution plan prediction system)

Claims (5)

A water distribution plan prediction system for creating a plan for the amount of water supplied from a water supply facility to consumers,
Based on the information of the actual water distribution amount of the actual value obtained in time-series, the day to create a water distribution planning pattern, which is a water distribution amount of prediction of the future is, in the case of a public holiday, 3 of prior to the date of the creation In the case of a weekday that is a day other than a national holiday, the actual amount of water distribution at the same time on the previous Saturday in the period of 8 weeks is obtained . determine the distribution amount actual value of the time, the calculated said that the average the day of the water distribution planning pattern of water distribution amount actual value at the same time, water distribution amount which is the prediction of the distribution of future predetermined period A water distribution plan creation section for creating a plan pattern;
When the deviation between the predicted water distribution plan pattern and the actually measured water distribution actual value deviates from the allowable deviation range, the deviation between the predicted water distribution plan pattern of the future predetermined period and the actual water distribution actual value is small. A water distribution plan prediction pattern correction unit that corrects the
The water distribution plan prediction pattern correction unit is
Using the average value of the difference between the predicted water distribution plan pattern in the past and the actual measured water distribution value, the predicted water distribution plan pattern for the future predetermined period is corrected,
When the deviation between the corrected water distribution plan pattern and the actual measured water distribution actual value deviates from the allowable deviation range,
Correction for changing the water distribution amount of the corrected water distribution amount plan pattern using a correction coefficient so that a deviation between the corrected water distribution amount plan pattern and the current actually measured water distribution amount actual value falls within an allowable deviation range. water distribution planning prediction system and performs. In the water distribution plan prediction system according to claim 1 ,
The predetermined period is one day. A prediction method of a water distribution amount plan prediction system for creating a distribution amount plan for supplying water from a water supply facility to consumers,
The water distribution plan prediction system includes a water distribution plan creation unit and a water distribution plan prediction pattern correction unit,
The water distribution quantity planning unit, when based on the actual water distribution amount actual value of information acquired in sequence, the date of creating the water distribution planning pattern a distribution amount of the prediction of future, the case of holiday, the While calculating the actual water distribution amount at the same time in the past Saturday in the period of 3 to 8 weeks before the day to be created, on weekdays that are days other than holidays , 3 to 8 before the day to be created By calculating the actual water distribution amount at the same time on the same day of the week in the past period, and setting the average of the calculated actual water distribution values at the same time as the water distribution plan pattern of the day, Create a distribution plan pattern that is a forecast of the distribution,
The water distribution amount plan prediction pattern correction unit, when a deviation between the predicted water distribution amount plan pattern and the actually measured distribution amount actual value deviates from an allowable deviation range, actually calculates the predicted water distribution amount plan pattern for the future predetermined period. of such deviation of the distribution amount of the actual value is reduced,
Using the average value of the difference between the predicted water distribution plan pattern in the past and the actual measured water distribution value, the predicted water distribution plan pattern for the future predetermined period is corrected,
When the deviation between the corrected water distribution plan pattern and the actual measured water distribution actual value deviates from the allowable deviation range,
Correction for changing the water distribution amount of the corrected water distribution amount plan pattern using a correction coefficient so that a deviation between the corrected water distribution amount plan pattern and the current actually measured water distribution amount actual value falls within an allowable deviation range. prediction method of distribution planning prediction system and performs. In the prediction method of the water distribution plan prediction system according to claim 3 ,
The predetermined period is one day. A method for predicting a water distribution plan prediction system, wherein: A program for causing a computer to execute the prediction method of the water distribution plan prediction system according to claim 3 or 4 .

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