JP4747144B2 - Program and simulation device - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a program and a simulation apparatus.

In the case of trains that are disturbed in train operations due to accidents, breakdowns, disasters, etc., operation arrangements that change the train schedule to perform safe operation are performed, but when preparing an operation arrangement plan, Passenger demand needs to be predicted more accurately. Therefore, a model that considers the dynamic interaction between train operation and the number of passengers has been proposed as a passenger behavior model for predicting passenger behavior. In this passenger behavior model, the determination as to whether or not a passenger gets on a train and the determination as to whether or not a passenger who gets on a train gets off is performed based on the logit model. The created driving arrangement plan is evaluated using this passenger behavior model, and it is possible to support the creation of a better driving arrangement plan (see, for example, Patent Document 1).
JP 2001-55145 A

  However, the above-described passenger behavior model of Patent Document 1 only discloses a method for determining whether to get on and off and whether to get off using a logit model. When the schedule is disturbed, there is a possibility that the passenger may take other actions besides simply determining whether to get on or off the vehicle, and the determination is complicated. Specifically, passengers usually determine their actions based on the premise that they are operating according to the schedule, but when the schedule is disrupted, train operations such as suspension or delay of trains, temporary trains, etc. Since the situation cannot be fully understood, the decision is made based on vague information such as information expected by the station staff and his own prediction. The behavior of selecting a detour route also depends on the existence of the detour route and the time required to move to the destination station on the detour route. Furthermore, since each passenger has a different destination station and appearance time, estimating the behavior of each passenger is an indispensable technique for improving accuracy. The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and an object of the present invention is to accurately predict the behavior of a passenger at the time of diamond disturbance.

The first invention for solving the above-described problems is
A computer (for example, the simulation apparatus 1 in FIG. 3)
A time measuring means (for example, step A33 in FIG. 9) for measuring the simulation time every moment;
A virtual passenger set with a destination station and a travel route is generated in a time series at a predetermined station, and the virtual passenger is assumed to be operating in accordance with a predetermined diagram data according to the timed simulation time. Train waiting passenger management means (for example, steps A5 to A31 in FIG. 9) for managing each train waiting passenger at the predetermined station.
As a program (for example, the simulation program 510 in FIG. 3),
The train waiting passenger management means has operation interruption setting means (for example, step A1 in FIG. 9) for setting an interruption section for interrupting the operation of the virtual train including the virtual station in the diagram data. Manage virtual passengers as trains on the section are not operated,
For each virtual passenger managed by the train waiting passenger management means, an assumed restart time setting means (for example, step A5 in FIG. 9) for setting an assumed operation resumption time after suspension by the operation suspension setting means,
When the simulation time counted by the timing means reaches a predetermined time, for each virtual passenger managed by the train waiting passenger management means, 1) by the operation interruption setting means Estimated time required for arrival required for normal travel to the target station set on the set travel route and 2) Waiting time until the set expected operation restart time when no interruption is set And 3) selection of the detour route by executing a predetermined probability calculation process using the estimated time required for arrival at detour required for movement to the destination station set as a detour route detouring the operation interruption section A travel route selection updating means (for example, step A2 in FIG. 9) that calculates the probability, selects the virtual passenger route according to the calculated probability, and updates the travel route of the virtual passenger. ),
A driving resumption assumed time variable means for changing a driving resumption assumed time set for each virtual passenger (for example, step A17 in FIG. 9),
Is a program for further causing the computer to function.

In addition, the sixth invention,
A time measuring means (for example, the CPU 10 in FIG. 3) for measuring the simulation time every moment;
A virtual passenger set with a destination station and a travel route is generated in a time series at a predetermined station, and the virtual passenger is assumed to be operating in accordance with a predetermined diagram data according to the timed simulation time. Train waiting passenger management means (for example, CPU 10 in FIG. 3) for managing each passenger waiting for a train at the predetermined station,
A simulation apparatus (for example, the simulation apparatus 1 in FIG. 3),
The train waiting passenger management means has operation interruption setting means for setting an interruption section for interrupting the operation of the virtual train including the virtual station in the diagram data, and it is assumed that the train in the operation interruption section is not operated. Manage passengers,
For each virtual passenger managed by the train waiting passenger management means, an assumed restart time setting means (for example, the CPU 10 in FIG. 3) for setting an assumed operation resumption time after interruption by the operation interruption setting means;
When the simulation time counted by the timing means reaches a predetermined time, for each virtual passenger managed by the train waiting passenger management means, 1) by the operation interruption setting means Estimated time required for arrival required for normal travel to the target station set on the set travel route and 2) Waiting time until the set expected operation restart time when no interruption is set And 3) selection of the detour route by executing a predetermined probability calculation process using the estimated time required for arrival at detour required for movement to the destination station set as a detour route detouring the operation interruption section A travel route selection updating means (for example, CPU 10 in FIG. 3) that calculates the probability, selects the virtual passenger route according to the calculated probability, and updates the travel route of the virtual passenger. ,
A driving resumption assumed time varying means (for example, the CPU 10 in FIG. 3) for changing a driving resumption assumed time set for each virtual passenger;
Is a simulation device.

  According to the first or sixth invention, a virtual passenger is generated in a time series at a predetermined station, and the virtual passenger is boarded on a train that is operated according to a predetermined diagram data according to the simulation time. In the simulation to manage each passenger waiting for a train, a stop section is set to stop the operation of the virtual train including the target station, and the virtual passenger is managed as the train in the set operation stop section is not operated . When the simulation time reaches a predetermined time, for each passenger waiting for the train at the predetermined station, 1) the estimated time required for arrival at normal time, and 2) the waiting time until the estimated time for restarting operation 3) A predetermined probability calculation process using the estimated time required for arrival at the time of detouring is executed to calculate a detour route selection probability, and the route of this virtual passenger is selected according to the calculated selection probability, so that the travel route is Updated. That is, for each passenger waiting for the train at the predetermined station, either the waiting at the predetermined station or detouring the operation interruption section is selected as the travel route. Moreover, since the estimated driving resumption time set for each virtual passenger is different, the calculated detour route selection probability is different for each virtual passenger. In this way, by calculating the detour route selection probability for each virtual passenger and updating the travel route, it becomes possible to perform a highly accurate simulation faithfully reproducing the behavior of each virtual passenger. As a result, it is possible to more accurately predict passenger demand when the schedule is disrupted, such as operation interruption.

The second invention is the program of the first invention,
The moving route selection updating means 1) sets the estimated utility time at the normal time when the estimated time required for arrival at the normal time and the sum of the waiting times as the total required time, and 2) the estimated time required for arrival at the detour. For each of the detour utility values when required time is calculated by performing a predetermined utility value calculation operation with the total required time as a variable, and a predetermined probability calculation with the utility value in each case as a variable A program for causing the computer to function so as to calculate a selection probability of the detour route by performing an operation.

  According to the second aspect of the invention, 1) the utility value at the normal time and 2) the utility value at the detour time are calculated by performing a predetermined utility value calculation operation using the total required time as a variable. Then, a predetermined probability calculation process using the utility value in each case as a variable is performed, and the detour route selection probability of each virtual passenger is calculated.

The third invention is the program of the second invention,
The detour route selection updating means is configured to reduce the detour route selection probability to ½ or more when the calculated detour utility value exceeds or exceeds a predetermined threshold value than the normal utility value. A program for causing the computer to function so as to calculate a path selection probability in a variable manner.

  According to the third aspect of the present invention, the detour route selection probability is set to be ½ or more when the detour route utility value exceeds or exceeds a predetermined threshold value than the normal utility value. It is calculated by changing. As the behavior of the passenger at the time of operation interruption, when the utility value at the normal time and the utility value at the detour are almost equal, the probability of waiting for the resumption of driving at the predetermined station is higher than the detour. For this reason, a more realistic simulation is realized by providing a predetermined threshold value between the utility value at the time of detouring and the utility value at the normal time.

The fourth invention is the program of any one of the first to third inventions,
Notification time arrival detection means (for example, CPU 10 in FIG. 3) for detecting that the simulation time counted by the time measurement means has reached a predetermined simulation time determined as a time for virtually notifying the scheduled operation resumption time. Step A15) of FIG.
When the notification time arrival detection means detects, the operation resumption time update means (for example, the CPU 10 in FIG. 3; FIG. 3) updates the assumed operation resumption time set for each virtual passenger to the scheduled operation resumption time. 9 step A17),
As the computer functions as
When the movement route selection updating means detects the notification time arrival detection means, the calculation of the alternative route selection probability for each virtual passenger and the route selection according to the calculated probability are performed. A program for causing the computer to function to be executed.

  According to the fourth aspect of the invention, when it is detected that the simulation time has reached a predetermined simulation time determined as a time for virtually informing the scheduled operation resumption time, the simulation time is set for each virtual passenger. The estimated driving resumption time is updated to the scheduled driving resumption time, and the selection probability of the detour route and the route selection according to the calculated probability are executed for each virtual passenger. From the passenger's point of view, if the user does not know the operation resumption time, the user selects either detour or waiting based on the expected operation resumption time predicted by the passenger. Then, when the scheduled operation resumption time is notified by an announcement in the station, etc., either detouring or waiting is selected again based on the scheduled operation resumption time. In other words, the detour route selection probability differs depending on whether or not the planned driving resumption time is known, and the larger the difference between the estimated driving resumption time predicted by the passenger and the planned driving resumption time, the more this selection probability shifts. growing. For this reason, when notification of the scheduled operation resumption time is made, the estimated operation resumption time of each virtual passenger is updated to this scheduled operation resumption time, and the route selection is performed again by calculating the selection probability of the detour route, A more accurate simulation that is more realistic is possible.

A fifth invention is a program according to any one of the first to fourth inventions,
Detour route recognition presence / absence initial setting means (for example, CPU 10 in FIG. 3) that initially sets the presence / absence of a detour route that bypasses the operation interruption section for each virtual passenger managed by the train waiting passenger management means. As the step A5) in FIG.
The travel route selection updating means calculates and calculates the detour route selection probability only for virtual passengers that are set to recognize the detour route among the virtual passengers managed by the train waiting passenger management unit. Causing the computer to perform route selection according to the programmed probability,
further,
The detour route notification time arrival detection means (for example, the CPU 10 in FIG. 3) detects that the simulation time counted by the time measuring means has reached a predetermined simulation time determined as a time for virtually notifying the detour route. Step A11) of FIG.
A detour route recognition update unit (for example, the CPU 10 in FIG. 3; FIG. 9) updates the virtual passenger set with no recognition of the detour route when it is detected by the detour route notification time arrival detection unit. Step A13),
Function the computer as
When the moving route selection updating means detects the detour route notification arrival time detecting means, the calculation of the detour route selection probability for each virtual passenger and the route according to the calculated probability Make the computer function to perform the selection,
It is a program for.

  According to the fifth aspect of the present invention, the calculation of the detour route selection probability and the route selection according to the calculated probability are executed only for the virtual passenger set to be aware of the detour route among the virtual passengers. Is done. When it is detected that the timed simulation time has reached a predetermined simulation time set as a time for virtually informing the detour route, a virtual passenger that is set to have no detour route recognition is detected. In addition to being updated with recognition, calculation of a detour route selection probability for each virtual passenger and route selection according to the calculated probability are executed. If the passenger does not know the detour route, he / she will inevitably wait for resumption of driving, and when the detour route is notified, he / she selects whether to detour or wait for the first time. For this reason, when the detour route is notified, the passengers set as having no detour route recognition are updated to be recognized, the detour route selection probability is calculated for each of these passengers, and the route selection is performed. Therefore, a more accurate simulation that is more realistic is possible.

  According to the present invention, a virtual passenger is generated in a time series at a predetermined station, and a virtual passenger is boarded on a train operated according to a predetermined diagram data according to a simulation time, so that one passenger waiting for the train at the predetermined station. In the simulation for managing one person, an interruption section for interrupting the operation of the virtual train including the target station is set, and the virtual passenger is managed as the train in the set operation interruption section is not operated. When the simulation time reaches a predetermined time, for each passenger waiting for the train at the predetermined station, 1) the estimated time required for arrival at normal time, and 2) the waiting time until the estimated time for restarting operation 3) A predetermined probability calculation process using the estimated time required for arrival at the time of detouring is executed to calculate a detour route selection probability, and the route of this virtual passenger is selected according to the calculated selection probability, so that the travel route is Updated. That is, for each passenger waiting for the train at the predetermined station, either the waiting at the predetermined station or detouring the operation interruption section is selected as the travel route. Moreover, since the estimated driving resumption time set for each virtual passenger is different, the calculated detour route selection probability is different for each virtual passenger. In this way, by calculating the detour route selection probability for each virtual passenger and updating the travel route, it becomes possible to perform a highly accurate simulation faithfully reproducing the behavior of each virtual passenger. As a result, it is possible to more accurately predict passenger demand when the schedule is disrupted, such as operation interruption.

  Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

[principle]
First, the principle of this embodiment will be described. In a railway, the passenger's selection action at the time of a timetable disruption is largely one of (1) waiting for resumption of driving and (2) selecting a detour route. This can be handled as an alternative route selection model for selecting either the “travel route” planned by the passenger or the “detour route” that bypasses the travel route.

  FIG. 1 shows an outline of the route selection model of this embodiment. The figure shows a case where a passenger R who appears at “A station”, which is the target station, goes to “B station”, which is the target station. As a route from “A station” to “B station”, there is a “travel route” planned by passenger R and a “detour route” that bypasses this travel route and goes from the target station to the target station. is there. If the train operation in the section between “A station” and “B station” corresponding to the travel route of the passenger R is interrupted, the passenger R will schedule (1) after the operation is resumed. Either the “traveling route” that goes to the B station or the “detour route” that goes to the B station is selected.

In this embodiment, this route selection model is constructed by a known non-aggregated logit model. The utility function and selection probability of the non-aggregated logit model are given by equations (1) and (2), respectively.

In Equation (1), “U _m ” is the utility of the path m, “X _km ” is an explanatory variable, “β _k ” is a parameter, and “α” is a constant term. In Equation (2), “U ₁ , U ₂ ” is the utility of paths 1 and 2, and “P _n ” is the selection probability of path n (n = 1, 2).

By the way, in the route selection model at the normal time, when the utility of two routes is exactly the same, the selection probability P is determined to be 50%. However, if the utility of the two routes is equal when the schedule is disrupted, it is considered that the passenger has a high probability of selecting the “movement route” that was originally planned, that is, selecting “waiting”. Therefore, in the present embodiment, in order to reflect this concept, _a threshold is set for the difference between the utility U _a of “detour” and the utility U _u of “wait”, and when the utility difference of both exceeds the threshold selection probability P _a of "bypass" is a model structure, such as more than 50%.

Thus, the routing model of the present embodiment, utility U _a of the "bypass" is given by Equation (3), the utility U _u of the "wait" is given by Equation (4). Then, the selection probability P _a of "bypass" is given by the formula (5).

According to Expression (3), the “detour” utility function U _a includes the total required time X _1a and the competitor line dummy X ₂ as the explanatory variable X. All the required time X1 _a is the time required from the target station in the case of via the detour route to the destination station. The other company line dummy X ₂ is whether or not the route of another railway company (other company) is included in the detour route, and is “1” if included, or “0” if not included. . Further, according to the equation (4), the “waiting” utility function U _u includes the total required time X _{1 u} and the waiting time reciprocal number X ₃ as the explanatory variable X. The total required time _X1u is the required time when the normal route is selected, and is the sum of the waiting time until restart of operation and the required time from the target station to the destination station when the normal route is used. Reciprocal X ₃ latency is equivalent to the threshold of the utility difference described above.

  FIG. 2 shows an example of the relationship between the waiting time and the utility difference threshold. In the figure, a graph is shown in which the horizontal axis represents the waiting time until operation restart and the vertical axis represents the utility difference threshold. According to the figure, the shorter the waiting time is, the larger the threshold is, and when the waiting time is less than a certain value (about 10 minutes in the figure), the threshold is rapidly increased. This expresses the tendency that “the shorter the waiting time is, the more it does not make a detour”, and if the waiting time is short (for example, about 10 minutes), the probability of selecting “bypass” decreases rapidly. expressing.

[Constitution]
FIG. 3 is a block diagram showing an internal configuration of the simulation apparatus 1 of the present embodiment. The simulation device 1 is a device that simulates each passenger's selection behavior using the above-described route selection model, and the CPU 10, the input unit 20, the display unit 30, the communication unit 40, and the storage unit 50 include: This is realized by using a known computer system configured to be connected to each other via a bus B so as to be able to perform data communication.

  The CPU 10 transfers instructions and data to each unit constituting the simulation apparatus 1 based on programs and data stored in the storage unit 50, data input from the input unit 20, and the like, and performs overall control of the simulation apparatus 1. Etc. In the present embodiment, the CPU 10 performs a simulation process according to the simulation program 510. In this simulation process, for each passenger heading from the target station to the destination station, the selection behavior when the train operation on the route from the target station to the destination station is interrupted is determined based on the above route selection model.

  Specifically, first, the simulation conditions are set according to, for example, an operation input by the user. The simulation conditions include the station to be simulated (target station) and the target station, the section in which the train operation is interrupted, the operation interruption time and operation resumption time (operation resumption scheduled time), the reason for the operation interruption, It includes the time to provide (notify) information on restart time and detour route to passengers staying at the target station (passengers waiting for the train). The operation interruption section may be any section including the target station, but in the present embodiment, it is a section between the target station and the target station.

  The set simulation conditions are stored in the condition table 531. FIG. 4 shows an example of the data configuration of the condition table 531. According to the figure, the condition table 531 includes the target station 531a, the destination station 531b, the operation interruption section 531c, the operation interruption time 531d, the operation resumption time 531e, the operation interruption reason 531f, the detour path 531g, The provision time 531h of the operation resumption time and the provision time 531i of the detour route are stored.

  The operation interruption section 531c is a section between the target station and the target station. The detour route 531g is a route that detours the operation interruption section and goes from the target station to the destination station. The provision time 531h of the operation resumption time is a time for providing information on the operation resumption time to the passenger staying at the target station, and is set between the operation interruption time and the operation resumption time. The detour route provision time 531i is a time at which information on the detour route is provided to passengers staying at the target station, and is set between the driving interruption time and the driving resumption time. In addition, provision of this operation resumption time and a detour route assumes the announcement in the station premises etc. in a target station.

  Next, the CPU 10 determines the selection behavior of each passenger from the target station toward the destination station under the set simulation conditions. That is, the passenger appears at the target station according to the passenger appearance probability table 523 from the driving interruption time to the driving resumption time.

  The passenger appearance probability table 523 is a data table that defines the appearance probability of a passenger. FIG. 5 shows an example of the data configuration of the passenger appearance probability table 523. According to the figure, the passenger appearance probability table 523 is generated for each combination of the appearance station and the destination station, and the appearance probability 523d of the passenger is associated with each time zone 523c together with the corresponding appearance station 523a and the destination station 523b. Stored. The appearance probability 523d is the number of persons appearing per unit time (for example, 1 minute) of the passenger heading to the destination station. This probability of appearance is determined from, for example, passenger entry / exit time data collected by automatic ticket gates installed at each station, or between each train used by each passenger and each station This value is determined based on survey data such as the number of passengers.

  The CPU 10 causes the passenger to appear at the target station according to the appearance probability of the time zone corresponding to the current time defined in the passenger appearance probability table 523 corresponding to the combination of the appearance station and the destination station defined as the simulation conditions. Then, the travel route, the presence / absence of the detour route, and the assumed driving resumption time are set for the appearing passenger. The movement route is a route from the appearing station to the destination station, and in this embodiment, is the operation interruption section itself. Whether or not the detour route is recognized is determined, for example, according to a predetermined probability. The estimated driving resumption time is a resumption time predicted by the passenger, and is determined according to a predetermined probability distribution, for example.

  Data about the appearing passenger is stored in the passenger data 532. FIG. 6 shows an example of the data configuration of the passenger data 532. According to the figure, passenger data 532 is generated for each passenger and identification number is passenger ID 532a, appearance station 532b, appearance time 532c, destination station 532d, travel route 532e, and bypass route recognition presence / absence 532f. In addition, an operation resumption estimated time 532g, a selection route 532h, a route selection flag 532i, and a route determination flag 532j are stored.

  The bypass route recognition presence / absence 532f indicates whether or not the corresponding passenger recognizes the bypass route. The presence / absence of the detour route recognition is set to “present” or “none”, for example, according to a predetermined probability at the time of appearance, and is updated to “present” when the detour route is provided. The estimated driving restart time 532g is the driving restart time assumed by the corresponding passenger. The estimated driving resumption time is set to a time predicted by the corresponding passenger when it appears, and is changed to the provided time when the driving resumption time is provided. Note that the restart time predicted by the passenger may be different depending on the reason for the suspension of driving. The selected route 532h is a route selected by the corresponding passenger. This selected route is set to “wait” when it appears, and when a route is selected, it is updated to the selected route (ie, “wait” or “detour”). The route selection flag 532i is a flag indicating whether route selection has been performed. This route selection flag is set to “0” indicating that no selection is made when it appears, and is updated to “1” when the first route selection is performed. The route confirmation flag 532j is a flag indicating whether or not the selected route is confirmed. The route confirmation flag is set to “0” indicating that the route is not confirmed at the time of appearance, and is updated to “1” when the route is selected and the selected route is confirmed.

  Then, CPU10 performs route selection based on the above-mentioned route selection model for each of the appearing passengers. FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an outline of route selection for a passenger. The route selection timing varies depending on whether or not the corresponding passenger recognizes the detour route.

FIG. 4A shows a passenger with a detour route. As shown in FIG. 5A, for a passenger with a known detour route, first, the first route selection is performed at the appearance timing (time t _x ). As a result, when “detour” is selected, the route selection is “confirmed” and the passenger is boarded on the detour route train from the target station. On the other hand, when “waiting” is selected, the passenger is retained at the target station. Thereafter, a second route selection is performed at the timing (time t _y ) when the operation resumption time is provided. As a result, if “waiting” is selected, the passenger remains in the target station, and if “detour” is selected, the passenger is boarded on the detour route train from the target station. Excluded from stagnant passengers. Then, the route selection of the passenger is “confirmed”.

FIG. 5B shows a passenger who does not recognize the detour route. As shown in FIG. 5B, for a passenger who does not recognize the detour route, the route selection is not performed at the appearance timing (time t _x ), and the detour route is provided at the timing (time t _z ). Perform the second route selection. This is because if the passenger does not recognize the detour route, the option is necessarily only “wait”. As a result, when “detour” is selected, the route selection is “confirmed”, and the train is taken from the target station on the detour route and removed from the staying passenger. On the other hand, when “waiting” is selected, the passenger is retained at the target station. After that, the second route selection is performed at the timing when the restart time is provided (time t _y ). As a result, if “waiting” is selected, the passenger remains in the target station, If "" is selected, the passenger is taken on a detour route train from the target station and removed from the staying passenger at the target station. Then, the selected route of the passenger is “confirmed”.

Passenger route selection is performed according to the route selection model described above. That is, the utility U _a for “detour” is calculated according to the equation (3). At this time, the total required time _X1a is a required time from the target station to the target station when the route is bypassed, with reference to the time (target time) t at the time of route selection. Third-party line dummy X _2, if that contains the lines of other companies line to detour route is set to "1", if not included to "0".

Further, the utility U _u for “waiting” is calculated according to the equation (4). At this time, the total required time _X1u is the sum of the waiting time Δt1 until the restart of the operation at the target time and the required time Δt2 from the target station to the target station when passing through the normal route. The waiting time Δt1 is the time from the target time t to the estimated restart time of the passenger. The estimated restart time is a time determined to be predicted by the passenger if the driving restart time is not provided, and is the driving restart time if the driving restart time is provided. The required time Δt2 is a required time from the target station to the target station based on the normal time diagram when the normal route is used with the estimated restart time as a reference. Here, the normal diamond is stored in the normal diamond data 524. The normal diagram data 524 includes diagram data for each route of other companies included in the detour route in addition to the diagram data for each route of the company.

Then, the calculated utility _U u, based on the _{U a,} according to Equation (5), calculates a selection probability _{P a} of "bypass". Then, on the basis of the selection probability P _a, to select a route.

  Here, each function expression of Expressions (3) to (5) is stored in the route selection model expression data 521. The value of parameter β in each utility function is stored in parameter table 522. FIG. 8 shows an example of the data structure of the parameter table 522. The values of these parameters are estimated based on predetermined questionnaire survey results.

  Returning to FIG. 3, the input unit 20 is an input device realized by, for example, a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, various switches, and the like, and outputs an input signal corresponding to an operation input to the CPU 10. The display unit 30 is a display device realized by, for example, an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display), an ELD (Electronic Luminescent Display), or the like, and displays various screens based on display signals input from the CPU 10. The communication unit 40 is a communication device realized by, for example, a wireless communication module, a router, a modem, TA, a wired communication cable jack, a control circuit, and the like, and performs data communication with an external device.

  The storage unit 50 stores a system program for realizing various functions for the CPU 10 to control the simulation apparatus 1 in an integrated manner, a program and data for realizing the simulation, and the work area of the CPU 10. The CPU 10 temporarily stores calculation results executed by the CPU 10 according to various programs, an input signal from the input unit 20, and the like. In the present embodiment, the storage unit 50 stores a simulation program 510 as a program, and as data, a route selection model formula data 521, a parameter table 522, a passenger appearance probability table 523, and normal diagram data 524, A condition table 531 and passenger data 532 are stored.

[Process flow]
FIG. 9 is a flowchart for explaining the flow of the simulation process executed by the CPU 10. According to the figure, the CPU 10 first determines the simulation conditions according to the operation input from the user (step A1). Then, based on the determined simulation conditions, to start the simulation between the from the operation interruption time t _a up to operation restart time t _b.

That is, the operation interruption time _ta is set to the virtual time t that is the simulation time (step A3). Subsequently, a passenger appearance process is performed to cause a passenger to appear at the target station (step A5). Thereafter, the loop A process is performed for each passenger staying at the target station. In the loop A, first, the route determination flag F2 of the target passenger is determined. If “0” (step A7: NO), the presence / absence of recognition of the detour route of the target passenger is further determined. If the presence / absence of recognition of the detour route of the virtual passenger is “none” (step A9: NO), it is determined whether or not the virtual time t has reached the provision time of the detour route, and if it has reached (step A11: YES), the presence / absence of recognition of the detour route of the target passenger is set to “present” (step A13).

  Subsequently, it is determined whether or not the virtual time t has reached the provision time of the driving resumption time. If the virtual time t has reached (step A15: YES), the resumption estimated time of the target passenger is set as the driving resumption time (step A17). . Then, route selection processing is performed to select a route for the target passenger (step A21).

  On the other hand, if the virtual time t has not reached the provision time of the driving resumption time (step A15: NO), the route selection flag F1 of the target passenger is judged, and if it is “0” (step A19: YES), the route is selected. Processing is performed to select a route for the target passenger (step A21).

  When the route selection process is performed, if the route selected in the process is “detour” (step A23: YES), the target passenger's route determination flag F2 is set to “1”, and the selected route is “detour”. (Step A25). On the other hand, if the selected route is “waiting” (step A23: NO), the route selection flag F1 of the target passenger is subsequently determined. If the route selection flag F1 is “1” (step A27: YES), it is determined that the current route selection is the second route selection, the route confirmation flag F2 is set to “1”, and the selected route is set to “1”. “Waiting” is confirmed (step A29). On the other hand, if the route selection flag F1 is “0” (step A27: NO), it is determined that the current route selection is the first route selection, and the route selection flag F1 is set to “1” (step A31). . Loop A is performed in this way.

  When the process of loop A for all passengers is completed, the CPU 10 advances the virtual time t by a predetermined time (for example, 1 minute) (step A33). As a result, if the virtual time t has not reached the operation resumption time (step A35: NO), the process returns to step A5. On the other hand, if the virtual time t has reached the operation resumption time (step A35: YES), the simulation is terminated and the simulation result is output (step A37). For example, referring to the passenger data 532, a list of the selected routes (“wait” or “detour”) of each passenger is displayed, or the number of passengers whose selected route is “wait”, that is, the stay of the target station at the operation resumption time Calculate and display the number of passengers. When the above processing is performed, the CPU 10 ends the simulation processing.

[Action / Effect]
As described above, according to the present embodiment, for each passenger appearing at the target station, according to the route selection model that is a logit model, the “waiting” for waiting for the resumption of driving and the detour route that bypasses the operation interruption section are selected. One of “bypass” is selected. The routing model, either in accordance with the utility U _u for utility U _a and "wait" for "detour" to calculate the selection probability P _a detour based on the calculated selection probability P _a of the "bypass" and "wait" Select. The total required time X _1u that is the explanatory variable X in the utility U _u of “waiting” includes a waiting time until the driving is resumed, but the assumed driving resuming time (driving resuming expected time) is different for each passenger. selection probability P _a of "bypass" is different for each passenger. Thus, by selecting a route by calculating the selection probability P _a of the "bypass" for each virtual passenger allows better simulation accuracy faithfully reproduce the virtual passenger every one's behavior, the result Therefore, it is possible to predict passenger demand more accurately when the schedule is disrupted, such as operation interruption.

  It should be noted that embodiments to which the present invention can be applied are not limited to the above-described embodiments, and can of course be changed as appropriate without departing from the spirit of the present invention.

(A) Server / Client System For example, in the above-described embodiment, the present invention is applied to one simulation apparatus. This is a server / client type simulation including a server apparatus and a client apparatus. It may be applied in the system. In this case, the user inputs simulation conditions in the client device, and the input simulation conditions are transmitted from the client device to the server device. Then, the server device performs a simulation based on the simulation conditions transmitted from the client device, and as a simulation result, a list of the selected routes (“waiting” or “detour”) of each passenger and the stay of the target station Data including the number of passengers is transmitted to the client device. Then, the client device outputs the simulation result transmitted from the server device, for example, by displaying it.

The schematic diagram of a route selection model. The example of a relationship between waiting time and the threshold value of utility difference. The internal block diagram of a simulation apparatus. An example of the data structure of a condition table. The data structural example of a passenger appearance probability table. Example data structure of passenger data. The schematic diagram of the timing of route selection. Example of data structure of parameter table. The flowchart of a simulation process.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Simulation apparatus 10 CPU, 20 Input part, 30 Display part, 40 Communication part 50 Storage part 510 Simulation program 521 Route selection model type | formula data, 522 Parameter table 523 Passenger appearance probability table, 524 Normal diagram data 531 Condition table, 532 Passenger data

Claims (6)

Computer
A timekeeping means that keeps time on the simulation,
A virtual passenger set with a destination station and a travel route is generated in a time series at a predetermined station, and the virtual passenger is assumed to be operating in accordance with a predetermined diagram data according to the timed simulation time. A train waiting passenger management means for managing each passenger waiting for a train at the predetermined station.
Is a program for functioning as
The train waiting passenger management means has operation interruption setting means for setting an interruption section for interrupting the operation of the virtual train including the virtual station in the diagram data, and it is assumed that the train in the operation interruption section is not operated. Manage passengers,
For each virtual passenger managed by the train waiting passenger management means, an assumed restart time setting means for setting an assumed operation resumption time after suspension by the operation suspension setting means,
When the simulation time counted by the timing means reaches a predetermined time, for each virtual passenger managed by the train waiting passenger management means, 1) by the operation interruption setting means Estimated time required for arrival required for normal travel to the target station set on the set travel route and 2) Waiting time until the set expected operation restart time when no interruption is set And 3) selection of the detour route by executing a predetermined probability calculation process using the estimated time required for arrival at detour required for movement to the destination station set as a detour route detouring the operation interruption section A travel route selection updating means for calculating a probability, selecting the route of the virtual passenger according to the calculated probability, and updating the travel route of the virtual passenger;
A driving resumption assumed time variable means for changing a driving resumption assumed time set for each of the virtual passengers;
As a program for further functioning the computer.   The moving route selection updating means 1) sets the estimated utility time at the normal time when the estimated time required for arrival at the normal time and the sum of the waiting times as the total required time, and 2) the estimated time required for arrival at the detour. For each of the detour utility values when required time is calculated by performing a predetermined utility value calculation operation with the total required time as a variable, and a predetermined probability calculation with the utility value in each case as a variable The program according to claim 1, wherein the computer is caused to function so as to calculate a selection probability of the detour route by performing an operation.   The detour route selection updating means is configured to reduce the detour route selection probability to ½ or more when the calculated detour utility value exceeds or exceeds a predetermined threshold value than the normal utility value. The program according to claim 2, wherein the computer is caused to function so as to calculate a variable path selection probability. Notification time arrival detection means for detecting that the simulation time measured by the time measurement means has reached a predetermined simulation time determined as a time for virtually notifying the scheduled operation resumption time,
A driving resumption time updating unit that updates a driving resumption estimated time set for each of the virtual passengers to the planned driving resumption time when detection by the notification time arrival detection unit is performed;
As the computer functions as
When the movement route selection updating means detects the notification time arrival detection means, the calculation of the alternative route selection probability for each virtual passenger and the route selection according to the calculated probability are performed. The program as described in any one of Claims 1-3 for making the said computer function so that it may perform. For each virtual passenger managed by the train waiting passenger management means, the computer functions as a detour route recognition presence / absence initial setting means for initially setting the presence / absence of a detour route that bypasses the operation interruption section,
The travel route selection updating means calculates and calculates the detour route selection probability only for virtual passengers that are set to recognize the detour route among the virtual passengers managed by the train waiting passenger management unit. Causing the computer to perform route selection according to the programmed probability,
further,
Detour route notification time arrival detection means for detecting that the simulation time counted by the time measuring means has reached a predetermined simulation time determined as a time for virtually notifying the detour route;
A detour route recognition update unit that updates a virtual passenger that is set as not recognizing a detour route with recognition when detection is made by the detour route notification time arrival detection unit;
Function the computer as
When the moving route selection updating means detects the detour route notification arrival time detecting means, the calculation of the detour route selection probability for each virtual passenger and the route according to the calculated probability Make the computer function to perform the selection,
The program as described in any one of Claims 1-4 for. A time measuring means for measuring the simulation time every moment,
A virtual passenger set with a destination station and a travel route is generated in a time series at a predetermined station, and the virtual passenger is assumed to be operating in accordance with a predetermined diagram data according to the timed simulation time. Train waiting passenger management means for managing each passenger waiting for a train at the predetermined station,
A simulation device comprising:
The train waiting passenger management means has operation interruption setting means for setting an interruption section for interrupting the operation of the virtual train including the virtual station in the diagram data, and it is assumed that the train in the operation interruption section is not operated. Manage passengers,
For each virtual passenger managed by the train-waiting passenger management means, an assumed restart time setting means for setting an assumed operation resumption time after suspension by the operation suspension setting means;
When the simulation time counted by the timing means reaches a predetermined time, for each virtual passenger managed by the train waiting passenger management means, 1) by the operation interruption setting means Estimated time required for arrival required for normal travel to the target station set on the set travel route and 2) Waiting time until the set expected operation restart time when no interruption is set And 3) selection of the detour route by executing a predetermined probability calculation process using the estimated time required for arrival at detour required for movement to the destination station set as a detour route detouring the operation interruption section A travel route selection updating unit that calculates a probability, selects a route of the virtual passenger according to the calculated probability, and updates the travel route of the virtual passenger;
A driving resumption assumed time variable means for changing a driving resumption assumed time set for each of the virtual passengers;
A simulation apparatus with

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