JP4435603B2 - Material arrangement risk management system - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a member arrangement risk management system that manages the risk of order cancellation when ordering parts constituting a product.

In order to satisfy customer demand in the production form in which the order lead time is shorter than the production period including parts arrangement, when planning production planning based on the demand forecast and preliminary material procurement, procurement calculation of the required quantity of parts is Although conventionally implemented, the production plan quantity has been determined without considering the risk management of the cancellation cost of the advance arrangement member that occurs when the assumed demand is significantly reduced.
Patent Document 1 discloses an appropriate inventory amount setting method for minimizing out-of-stock risks and inventory risks in a prospective product inventory management method.

JP-A-8-279013 (pages 3 to 4, FIG. 1)

Conventionally, at the time of reviewing the required number of production plans and the number of orders, it is not possible to determine the risk scale when executing an order with the same scale at that time or canceling the already arranged amount at that time, As a result, there was a problem that the cash flow deteriorated due to an increase in cancellation costs and an increase in unnecessary inventory.
In addition, the calculation of the estimated cost for canceling the order is inevitably due to manual work by humans, and it is difficult to carry out due to inefficiency.
In Patent Document 1, even if inventory management is optimized, risk management for order cancellation is not performed.

  The present invention has been made to solve the above-described problems, and an object of the present invention is to obtain a member arrangement risk management system capable of calculating a cancellation risk of a member order.

In the material arrangement risk management system according to the present invention, a purchase information database containing unit price information for each material,
A risk burden rate database that determines the risk burden rate on the ordering side when canceling an order that has already been made based on the production plan of the product, based on the degree of diversion and order cancellation timing at the part manufacturing stage,
And when canceling an order that has already been made for a member by referring to the purchase information database and the risk burden database based on the order quantity of the member calculated based on the production plan of the product reviewed at each plan review timing It has a risk calculation means that calculates the burden risk and outputs it as a procurement risk management table .
The burden risk calculated by the risk calculation means is the maximum cancellation risk calculated based on the maximum number of order instructions for each delivery period, and the adjustment cancellation calculated based on the number of order instructions at the initial planning of the product production plan. It includes any of the risk and the total amount cancellation risk calculated from the difference between the cumulative number of orders placed at each plan review timing and the cumulative number of deliveries .

As described above, this invention is a purchase information database that records unit price information for each member,
A risk burden rate database that determines the risk burden rate on the ordering side when canceling an order that has already been made based on the production plan of the product, based on the degree of diversion and order cancellation timing at the part manufacturing stage,
And when canceling an order that has already been made for a member by referring to the purchase information database and the risk burden database based on the order quantity of the member calculated based on the production plan of the product reviewed at each plan review timing It has a risk calculation means that calculates the burden risk and outputs it as a procurement risk management table .
The burden risk calculated by the risk calculation means is the maximum cancellation risk calculated based on the maximum number of order instructions for each delivery period, and the adjustment cancellation calculated based on the number of order instructions at the initial planning of the product production plan. It includes any of the total amount cancellation risk calculated based on the difference between the total number of orders and the total number of deliveries at each plan review timing, so by calculating the cancellation risk for part orders, the order cancellation risk is higher than expected. It is possible to reduce the order of a certain member and to determine whether to cancel the order in accordance with the cancellation timing, and to reduce the unnecessary shelf remaining.

Embodiment 1 FIG.
FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram showing a member arrangement risk management system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention.
In FIG. 1, a production plan 2 is designed based on the backlog of products received by an existing production planning system. The required quantity expansion means 3 is based on the production plan 2, the configuration information 4 that defines the necessary members for each product, and the remaining order / inventory 5 that indicates the quantity of parts being ordered and the quantity of parts in stock from the parts manufacturer. At each review timing of the production plan 2, a net order quantity 6 is calculated and output as a required quantity for each member.
The member arrangement risk management system 1 outputs a procurement risk management table 14 to be described later based on the net arrangement amount 6. This procurement risk management table 14 is then used for risk judgment 7 by humans. Here, based on the C / F plan 8 that defines the purchase plan for parts, the amount of money corresponding to the risk is within an allowable range. It is judged whether or not. Depending on the risk level of the risk judgment 7, the order cancellation / under-arrangement 9 cancels the order of the parts or under-arranges the under-arrangement.

The material arrangement risk management system 1 calculates an ordering risk for each material, outputs a procurement risk management table 14, and purchase information 12 (purchasing information database) having unit price information for each material and each supplier. And a risk burden rate 13 (risk burden rate database) in which the risk burden rate for each member is determined in advance as a member manufacturer, and a risk management history 15 (risk management history database) in which the history of the procurement risk management table 14 is stored. Has been. The risk calculation means 11 calculates the ordering risk (burden risk) for each member based on the purchase information 12 and the risk burden rate 13, and calculates the current calculation and the past calculation contents stored in the risk management history 15. The procurement risk management table 14 in which the difference is understood is output.
The risk burden rate 13 is different for each member. For example, a plastic material can be diverted to another, so the risk burden rate is lowered, and a plastic molded product is difficult to divert to another. The burden rate is increased. Moreover, the risk burden rate 13 is set so as to increase as it approaches the delivery date of the member. That is, it is set according to the member and order cancellation timing.
The procurement risk management table 14 includes the three types of management tables shown in FIGS.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing calculation of the maximum cancellation risk of the member arrangement risk management system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention.
FIG. 2 shows a calculation example when all burdens are placed on the orderer side when canceling the order. The release number represents the output number of the procurement risk management table.
FIG. 3 is a diagram showing calculation of adjustment cancellation risk of the member arrangement risk management system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention.
FIG. 3 shows a calculation example when calculating the burden on the orderer side at the time of order cancellation based on the quantity at the beginning of ordering. The release number represents the output number of the procurement risk management table.
FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the calculation of the total amount cancellation risk of the member arrangement risk management system according to the first embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 4 shows a calculation example when calculating the burden on the orderer side at the time of order cancellation based on the procurement risk management table for the release number with a large burden amount. The release number represents the output number of the procurement risk management table.
The figures in parentheses in each table in FIGS. 2 to 4 are the past area in the release number, and the member requested by the number in the previous release number is delivered after this week. It is shown that
Also, in the tables showing the risks at the time of release 8 in FIGS. 2 to 4, the non-changeable column shows the occurrence risk calculated in each risk calculation pattern in the K region (including the F region), This shows the risk that occurs when changing from the C region to the K region.

Next, the operation will be described.
In the operation of this material arrangement risk management system 1, the procurement period (procurement lead time) in a certain contract period (for example, year, half year), order changeable period, order change in advance for each procurement member. The cancellation burden rate on the ordering side is negotiated and determined according to each cancellation timing based on the impossible period and the scheduled delivery date. This cancellation burden rate is determined based on the diversion degree and the general-purpose degree at each manufacturing stage of the member. The negotiated result of the cancellation burden ratio is registered in the risk burden ratio 13 as risk burden ratio information.

  Forecast future demand trends from forecasts from customers, market trends, past performance, etc., and create production plan 2 based on the results. Based on the production plan 2, each production plan unit (for example, week Unit), the required number of additional arrangements, and the necessary number of arrangement cancellations are calculated and set as the net arrangement quantity 6. At this time, since the production plan 2 rolls in accordance with the plan review timing, the calculation result at each plan review timing is held as history information.

  Next, for each production plan unit, the status of the material arrangement information to the supplier will increase according to the procurement period (procurement lead time), the order changeable period, and the order change impossible period. Since the risk burden rate on the ordering side registered as described above also changes, the cancel risk quantity and the amount are calculated in consideration of the risk burden rate for each production plan unit in accordance with the review timing of the production plan 2. At this time, since the production plan 2 rolls in accordance with the plan review timing, the calculation result at each plan review timing is held in the risk management history 15.

Next, the risk calculation means 11 calculates three risk amounts based on the purchase information 12 and the risk burden rate 13, the maximum cancellation risk in FIG. 2, the adjustment cancellation risk in FIG. 3, and the total amount cancellation risk in FIG. 4. Thus, the procurement risk management table 14 is created and output.
Next, in risk judgment 7, based on this procurement risk management table 14, the state of the remaining shelf plan value is grasped, the impact on the remaining shelf amount, and the purchase of the C / F (C / F: cash flow) plan 8. Determine the impact on funds. The order cancellation / under-arrangement 9 receives this result, suppresses the arrangement of parts, cancels the order, and realizes the procurement operation with the expected risk scale.

Next, risk calculation of the risk calculation means 11 will be described in detail.
FIG. 2 is an example of calculation of the maximum cancellation risk that all burdens are placed on the side of the orderer when canceling the order. In the case of FIG. 2, the calculation is performed based on the following preconditions. Order deadline (procurement period, procurement lead time: C area) is 60 days, quantity can be changed, but cannot be diverted to others, so the maximum burden occurrence deadline (period in which the responsibility for taking over on the ordering side occurs 100%) K area) is 45 days, and the delivery quantity confirmation period (F area) is 30 days. This delivery quantity determination period is a period in which the delivery quantity is finally determined for a transportation period or the like, and is the same as the order change impossible period.
The risk burden ratio is 30% at the order deadline (C area) and 100% after the maximum load occurrence deadline (K area). The unit price of the order is 1 yen / piece, and the plan unit is 2 weeks.

Based on such preconditions, the risk calculation in the case of FIG. 2 is performed as follows based on the maximum number of order instructions.
(1) For each delivery period (for example, 1W-2W in September), the difference from the quantity indicated to the latest business partner is evaluated as a risk with reference to the maximum value after reaching the maximum burden occurrence deadline (K area). However, the increment is not negatively evaluated (evaluates the remaining order that can be canceled). When the order deadline (C area) changes to the maximum burden occurrence deadline (K area), only the decrease is evaluated.
In the example of FIG.
・ In the delivery period of October 3W-4W, the K area decreased from 200 at the time of release 5 to 100 (K area risk 100).
・ In the delivery period of November 1W-2W, the C area to the K area decreased from 200 at the time of release 5 to 100 (C area risk 100).
(2) The same risk calculation is performed up to the present time (release 8), and the cumulative cancel risk at each release timing is calculated.
(3) The total of the “cancellation amount at the time of release” and the cumulative cancellation risk calculated in the above (2) is used as the total burden amount at every release timing.
In the example of FIG.
For the K area, 250 pieces * 1 yen * 100% = 250 yen For the C area, 200 pieces * 1 yen * 30% = 60 yen, and the cancellation risk amount (maximum influence amount) is 250 yen + 60 yen = 310 yen It becomes.

Next, the case of calculating the adjustment cancellation risk in FIG. 3 will be described.
FIG. 3 is an example of calculation of the adjustment cancellation risk for calculating the burden on the orderer side at the time of order cancellation based on the quantity at the time of ordering. In FIG. 3, the precondition is the same as in FIG. is there. The risk calculation in the case of FIG. 3 is performed as follows based on the number of order instructions at the time of the initial planning of the production plan.
(1) Evaluate as a risk the difference from the quantity ordered to the latest supplier based on when the maximum burden occurrence deadline (K area) is reached every delivery period (eg, September 1W-2W) (cancellable) Evaluate the remaining order.) Further, when the order deadline (C area) is changed to the maximum burden occurrence deadline (K area), only the decrease is evaluated.
In the example of FIG. 3, at the time of release 3,
・ In the delivery period of September 1W-2W, K area increased from 100 in Release 2 to 150 (K area risk-50).
・ In the delivery period of September 3W-4W, the C area to the K area increased from 100 in Release 2 to 150 (C area risk -50).
(2) The same risk calculation is performed up to the present time (release 8), and the cumulative cancel risk at each release timing is calculated.
(3) The total of the “cancellation amount at the time of release” and the cumulative cancellation risk calculated in the above (2) is used as the total burden amount at every release timing.
In the example of FIG.
For the K area, 150 pieces * 1 yen * 100% = 150 yen For the C area, 100 pieces * 1 yen * 30% = 30 yen, and the cancellation risk amount (risk amount at the first confirmed number) is 150 yen +30 Yen = 180 yen.

Next, the case of calculation of the total amount money cancellation risk in FIG. 4 will be described.
FIG. 4 is an example of calculation of the total amount cancellation risk for calculating the burden on the orderer side when canceling the order based on the procurement risk management table for the release number with a large amount of burden. This is the same as the case of 2. The risk calculation in the case of FIG. 4 is performed as follows.
(1) Accumulate the quantity in the range where the maximum burden occurrence deadline (K area) has been reached including the already procured area for each delivery period (for example, September 1W-2W) (evaluated by the total number including the already procured part). In addition, the order deadline (C area) is evaluated only for the target area of each release.
In the example of FIG. 4, at the time of release 5,
・ In the delivery period from September 1W-2W to October 3W-4W, the cumulative total in the K area is 700 pieces (burden rate evaluation 700 pieces * 1 yen * 100% = 700 yen).
・ In the delivery period of November 1W-2W, the risk of area C is 200 (200 area C risk, burden rate evaluation 200 pieces * 1 yen * 30% = 60 yen).
(2) Similarly, calculation is performed for each release number, and the time when the burden evaluation amount is maximized is evaluated as the maximum burden amount (in the example of FIG. 4, release 5 is 760 yen).
(3) At the time of release 8, there are 550 deliveries (amount 550 yen), so calculate the difference from the maximum burden amount calculated in (2) and evaluate it as a risk amount (the burden amount is always the largest ever (Evaluate by amount).
The cancellation risk amount (risk in the total amount amount) in the example of FIG. 4 is 760 yen-550 yen = 210 yen.
As described above, the risk calculation means 11 can easily determine the risk of order cancellation by calculating and outputting three types of risks as shown in FIGS. 2, 3, and 4.

According to the first embodiment, in order to calculate the risk scale taking into account the risk burden rate at the time of cancellation timing in accordance with the plan review timing, orders with cancellation risk more than expected are reduced, and the timing is adjusted to the cancellation timing. Order cancellation judgment can be made, and unnecessary shelf space can be reduced.
Further, by automating the task of creating a procurement risk management table that is judgment data used for order cancellation judgment, it is possible to improve the efficiency of the task and shorten the document creation period.

It is a block diagram which shows the member arrangement risk management system by Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is a figure which shows calculation of the maximum cancellation risk of the member arrangement risk management system by Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is a figure which shows calculation of the adjustment cancellation risk of the member arrangement risk management system by Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is a figure which shows calculation of the total amount money amount cancellation risk of the member arrangement risk management system by Embodiment 1 of this invention.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Material arrangement risk management system 2 Production plan 3 Requirement expansion means 4 Structure information 5 Order remaining / inventory 6 Net arrangement quantity 7 Risk judgment 8 C / F plan 9 Order cancellation / under-arrangement 11 Risk calculation means 12 Purchasing information 13 Risk burden Rate 14 Procurement risk management table 15 Risk management history

Claims (2)

Purchasing information database containing unit price information for each member,
Based on the production plan of the product, the risk burden rate determined based on the degree of diversion at the manufacturing stage of the member and the timing of canceling the order when the order that has already been placed is canceled for the parts that make up the product Database,
And, based on the order quantity of the member calculated based on the production plan of the product reviewed at each plan review timing, refer to the purchase information database and the risk burden database to place an order for the member already made. It has a risk calculation means to calculate the burden risk when canceled and output it as a procurement risk management table ,
The burden risk calculated by the risk calculation means is calculated based on the maximum cancellation risk calculated on the basis of the maximum number of order instructions for each delivery period and the order instruction number at the initial planning of the production plan for the product. A member arrangement risk management system comprising: an adjustment cancellation risk, and a total amount cancellation risk calculated based on a difference between a cumulative order number and a cumulative delivery record at each plan review timing .   A risk management history database storing the procurement risk management table output by the risk calculation means is provided, and the procurement risk management table output by the risk calculation means includes past procurement risks stored in the risk management history database. The component arrangement risk management system according to claim 1, further comprising a management table.

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