JP4285322B2 - Cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program, cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation method, and cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation device - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program for calculating an estimated operation cost of a cogeneration system.

In recent years, based on estimated demand for electrical energy and thermal energy per unit time, a technology for obtaining the optimal operating conditions (optimal operating conditions per unit time) when the estimated operating cost of the cogeneration system is minimized Is known among those skilled in the art (see, for example, Patent Document 1).
JP-A-8-200355

  However, for the operator of the cogeneration system, for example, if the optimal operating conditions of the system are calculated at a frequency of every hour or the like, and the system setting is changed each time, the operating cost can be suppressed, The frequency of setting changes is high and complicated. For this reason, practically, there is hardly any work that sequentially corresponds the operating conditions of the cogeneration system to the optimal operating conditions of the system calculated at a frequency of every hour or the like.

  An object of the present invention is to provide a cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program and the like capable of obtaining an operation condition in which a change frequency is reduced to a realistic level while suppressing an operation cost in a cogeneration system.

A cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program according to the first invention uses an estimated operation cost of a cogeneration system that supplies electric energy and thermal energy in combination with electric energy supplied by an external power device outside the cogeneration system. On the other hand, a cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program for causing a computer to calculate heat energy supplied by an external heat device external to the cogeneration system includes the following steps. In the estimated demand amount specifying step, the estimated electric demand amount of the electric energy and the estimated heat demand amount of the thermal energy in the plurality of second periods constituting the first period are specified for the computer. In the low load simulation step, the cogeneration system is operated at a constant low load from the start to the end of the low load constituted by a plurality of second periods, according to the estimated demand for each second period. A low load simulation is performed by supplementing the shortage of electrical energy with an external electrical device and supplementing the shortage of heat energy according to the estimated heat demand for each second period with the external heat device. In the high load simulation step, the cogeneration system is operated at a constant high load higher than the low load during the high load period excluding the low load period in the first period constituted by a plurality of second periods. On the other hand, a shortage of electrical energy corresponding to the estimated amount of electricity demand for each second period is compensated by an external electric device, and a shortage of heat energy corresponding to the estimated amount of demand for each second period is compensated for by an external heat device. When the simulation. Then, the cost required for the computer, which can be calculated at least based on the operating conditions, the cogeneration system, the external electric device, and the external heat device through the first period in each simulation is reduced to the low load at the start of the low load. At the end of the hour, the calculation is performed while changing the constant low load value and the constant high load value. In the output step, the calculated cost is output in association with the constant low load value and the constant high load value at the start of low load, at the end of low load. Here, the first period is a period longer than the second period. For example, when the first period is one day, the second period can be set to one hour. The first period and the second period are not limited to the above example and can be arbitrarily set.

The cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program according to the second invention is the cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program according to the first invention, wherein the range of the amount of energy supplied by the external power device is predetermined for each second period. In the output step, the electric energy amount for each second period supplied by the external power device and the minimum electric energy amount within a predetermined range and the first electric energy obtained by the cogeneration system. When the minimum total electric energy amount obtained by summing the electric energy amounts in the two periods exceeds the estimated electric demand amount in the second period, and the electric energy for each second period supplied by the external power device The maximum amount of electrical energy within a predetermined range The operation condition is specified when the maximum total electric energy obtained by summing the electric energy in the second period obtained by the cogeneration system is less than the estimated electric demand in the second period. And output.

A cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program according to a third aspect of the invention is the cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program of the first or second aspect of the invention, in which the computer is started at a low load and at a low load. At the end of the low load corresponding to the minimum cost output associated with the constant low load value and the constant high load value, at the end of the low load, at the constant low load value and An optimum condition output step for outputting an optimum condition that is a constant high load value is further provided.

A cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program according to a fourth invention is a cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program according to the third invention, which causes a computer to control a cogeneration system based on optimum conditions. A control step is further provided.

A cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program according to a fifth invention is a cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program according to any one of the first to fourth inventions, when the computer starts at a low load, At the end of the low load, the minimum cost output corresponding to the constant low load value and the constant high load value is set to a different output mode from the others, or corresponds to the minimum cost value At the start of low load, at the end of low load, a constant low load value and a constant high load value are set as different output modes.

A cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation method according to a sixth aspect of the present invention uses an estimated operation cost of a cogeneration system that supplies electric energy and thermal energy in combination with electric energy supplied by an external power device outside the cogeneration system. On the other hand, a cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation method for causing a computer to calculate heat energy supplied by an external heat device external to the cogeneration system includes the following steps. In the estimated demand amount specifying step, the estimated electric demand amount of the electric energy and the estimated heat demand amount of the thermal energy in the plurality of second periods constituting the first period are specified for the computer. In the low load simulation step, the cogeneration system is operated at a constant low load from the start to the end of the low load constituted by a plurality of second periods, according to the estimated demand for each second period. A low load simulation is performed by supplementing the shortage of electrical energy with an external electrical device and supplementing the shortage of heat energy according to the estimated heat demand for each second period with the external heat device. In the high load simulation step, the cogeneration system is operated at a constant high load higher than the low load during the high load period excluding the low load period in the first period constituted by a plurality of second periods. On the other hand, a shortage of electrical energy corresponding to the estimated amount of electricity demand for each second period is compensated by an external electric device, and a shortage of heat energy corresponding to the estimated amount of demand for each second period is compensated for by an external heat device. When the simulation. Then, the cost required for the computer, which can be calculated at least based on the operating conditions, the cogeneration system, the external electric device, and the external heat device through the first period in each simulation is reduced to the low load at the start of the low load. At the end of the hour, the calculation is performed while changing the constant low load value and the constant high load value. In the output step, the calculated cost is output in association with the constant low load value and the constant high load value at the start of low load, at the end of low load. Here, the first period is a period longer than the second period. For example, when the first period is one day, the second period can be set to one hour. The first period and the second period are not limited to the above example and can be arbitrarily set.

A cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation device according to a seventh aspect of the present invention uses an estimated operation cost of a cogeneration system that supplies electric energy and thermal energy in combination with electric energy supplied by an external power device outside the cogeneration system. However, it is a cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation device for calculating heat energy supplied by an external heat device external to the cogeneration system, and the electric power for each of the plurality of second periods constituting the first period Estimated demand quantity specifying means for specifying estimated energy demand for energy and estimated heat demand for thermal energy, and a constant cogeneration system from the start to the end of low load configured by multiple second periods Due to low load Assuming that the external electrical device supplements the shortage of electrical energy corresponding to the estimated demand for each second period while operating, and the external thermal device supplements the shortage of thermal energy corresponding to the estimated heat demand for each second period A low load simulation means for performing a low load simulation and a constant higher cogeneration system than a low load during a high load period excluding a low load period in a first period constituted by a plurality of second periods. The shortage of electrical energy corresponding to the estimated demand for each second period is compensated for by the external electrical device while the shortage of electrical energy corresponding to the estimated demand for each second period is compensated by the external heat. High load simulation means that performs high load simulation as a supplement by the device, and can be calculated at least based on operating conditions -The cost required for the generation system, external electrical device, and external thermal device throughout the first period in each simulation, at the start of low load, at the end of low load, constant low load value and constant high load A means for calculating while changing the value of the output, and at the start of low load, at the end of low load, output the calculated cost in association with the constant low load value and the constant high load value Output means. Here, the first period is a period longer than the second period. For example, when the first period is one day, the second period can be set to one hour. The first period and the second period are not limited to the above example and can be arbitrarily set.

  According to the cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program according to the present invention, it is possible to obtain an operation condition in which the change frequency can be reduced while suppressing the operation cost.

[Simulation apparatus for cogeneration system according to first embodiment]
The simulation device 80 (see FIG. 3) of the cogeneration system 20 according to the first embodiment is used for the cogeneration system 20 shown below, and the cogeneration system 20 is operated for a predetermined time under predetermined operating conditions. The estimated operation cost that is estimated to be necessary in the event of a failure is calculated.

[Cogeneration system]
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram showing an outline of the cogeneration system 20 to which the above-described simulation apparatus 80 is applied, and FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a specific configuration of the cogeneration system 20 and its energy flow. .

  As shown in FIG. 1, the cogeneration system 20 supplies electric power obtained by supplying fuel to the cogeneration devices 22 and 24 to the power demand facility 30a of the factory 30 and purchasing power from an electric power company or the like. In this system, heat is obtained by supplying fuel to the cogeneration devices 22 and 24 and supplying fuel to the boiler 26 to the heat demand facility 30b of the factory 30.

  Specifically, as shown in FIG. 2, the above-described cogeneration system 20 includes a gas turbine 22 (hereinafter referred to as a first cogeneration device as appropriate) and a gas engine 24 (hereinafter referred to as a second as appropriate for description). A cogeneration device), a boiler 26, a power receiving facility 25, an absorption refrigerator 27, and the like. The gas turbine 22 generates electric energy by using the gas fuel 21 (electric energy flow 51) and generates steam having thermal energy by exhaust heat (thermal energy flows 61 and 62). Some of the steam having the thermal energy is ejected by the gas turbine 22 and used to increase the generated power (see the gas turbine steam injection 23 and the thermal energy flow 61 in FIG. 1). The gas engine 24 generates electric energy by generating electricity using the gas fuel 21 (electric energy flow 52) and also generates thermal energy by exhaust heat (thermal energy flow 63). The boiler 26 generates steam having thermal energy by the gas fuel 21 when the thermal energy to be supplied to the factory 30 is insufficient (thermal energy flow 64). The power receiving facility 25 purchases (purchases) electric energy from an electric power company or the like and receives supply of electric energy (electric energy flow 53). In addition, about the power purchase from an electric power company etc. here, in the cogeneration system 20, normally, it is utilized so that a contract received electric power value may not be exceeded, ensuring the minimum amount of electric power. The absorption refrigerator 27 generates cold water used for intake air cooling of the gas turbine 22 by using electric energy and thermal energy (electric energy flow 54, thermal energy flow 65). The electric energy and heat energy generated as described above are supplied to the factory 30 (electric energy flow 50, heat energy flow 60). And each energy of the electrical energy and thermal energy supplied to the factory 30 will be utilized by the electric power demand equipment 30a and the heat demand equipment 30b shown in FIG. 1 mentioned above.

  Note that the gas turbine 22, the gas engine 24, the boiler 26, the power receiving facility 25, and the absorption refrigerator 27, which are system components, are in accordance with the estimated operation cost and the optimum operation condition calculated by the simulation device 80 described above. The manager of the cogeneration system 20 changes the operating conditions of the cogeneration apparatus, whereby the supply amount of power and steam to the factory 30 is controlled.

[Simulation equipment]
FIG. 3 shows a simulation apparatus 80 that is adapted to the cogeneration system 20 described above.

  The simulation device 80 includes a hard disk 83, a main memory 82, and a central processing unit 81. The main memory 82 is connected to the central processing unit 81 via the bus line 88. The hard disk 83 is connected to the main memory 82 via an IDE interface. Externally connected devices such as a keyboard 84, a mouse 85, a display 86, and a printer 87 are also connected to the bus line 88 through appropriate interfaces. The hard disk 83 here stores a simulation program 83a. The simulation program 83a describes a group of instructions for causing the central processing unit 81 to perform various processes (details will be described later). The main memory 82 reads commands and necessary data described in the simulation program 83a from the hard disk 83 and temporarily stores them. The central processing unit 81 executes arithmetic processing based on necessary data or the like for instructions (described in the simulation program 83a) temporarily stored in the main memory 32. The keyboard 84 and mouse 85 are used for input work, information selection, cursor movement, and the like. The display 86 outputs information such as results obtained by the arithmetic processing by the central processing unit 81 to display on the screen. Further, the printer 87 outputs the result obtained by the arithmetic processing by the central processing arithmetic device 81 to print on the paper.

[Outline of operation of simulation device]
As shown in FIG. 4, the schematic operation performed in the simulation device 80 is performed for each operating condition by setting the operating condition when the power demand and the heat demand required in the factory 30 are specified. The estimated operation cost of the cogeneration system 20 is calculated. And the optimal driving | running condition in the case of taking the minimum value among the estimated driving | running costs calculated for every driving | running condition is specified. That is, in this simulation apparatus 80, the optimal operation condition of the cogeneration system 20 and the estimated operation cost required in that case can be obtained.

  The estimated operating cost here is the total cost obtained by adding together the operating cost of the cogeneration device, the operating cost of the boiler, and the power purchase cost under the set conditions that satisfy the specified power demand and heat demand. Is calculated as In addition, as shown in FIG. 5, the values of power demand and heat demand for each unit time (here 1 hour) constituting the target period are specified in advance for the values of power demand and heat demand in each time zone. It is used as an invariant value throughout the calculation process. Moreover, the electric power demand amount and the heat demand amount per unit time are specified according to past cogeneration system 20 operation data, a different value according to the season, or differ depending on the operation status of the factory, for example. Or specified by value.

  Specifically, when the operating conditions of the cogeneration device are fixed, the power energy and thermal energy obtained when the cogeneration device is operated under the fixed operating conditions are calculated, and the operation of the cogeneration device under these operating conditions is calculated. Costs are also calculated (gas turbine simulation and gas engine simulation). Next, the power and heat energy obtained from the cogeneration system is covered by the energy obtained by purchasing electricity or the heat energy obtained from the boiler. Fill the amount. Then, the power purchase cost and the boiler operation cost corresponding to the bridging by power purchase and boiler operation are calculated (power purchase simulation and boiler simulation). As a result, a total cost is calculated by summing up the operation cost of the cogeneration device, the operation cost of the boiler, and the power purchase cost, and an estimated operation cost that is a total cost corresponding to the unit time and the operation conditions of the cogeneration device is calculated.

[Flow of estimated operating cost calculation]
Next, a detailed flow of calculating the estimated operation cost of the cogeneration system 20 by the simulation device 80 will be described using the flowcharts shown in FIGS. 6, 7, and 8. The calculation of the estimated operation cost here mainly includes steps S11 to S29 described below. Here, in the case where the factory 30 is operated for the target period (X days), an example of a case where the estimated operation cost corresponding to the operation condition of the cogeneration apparatus that satisfies the required energy demand is calculated is taken as an example. I will give you a description. The operating conditions here are determined by the load factor of the first cogeneration device (gas turbine 22) and the load factor of the second cogeneration device (gas engine 24), and each load factor is different by 1%. The case of calculating for will be described.

  In step S <b> 11, the simulation device 80 specifies the energy demand based on past operation data of the cogeneration system 20. That is, as shown in FIG. 9, the energy demand in the “energy demand in each time zone” for each unit time (here, 1 hour) constituting the target period (here, X days) is specified.

  In step S12, the simulation apparatus 80 sets the target date D in the target period (X days) as the first day that is the first day.

  In step S13, the simulation device 80 sets the load factor Lt of the first cogeneration device (gas turbine 22) as the minimum set load factor Lt (min). Here, as shown in FIG. 9, the minimum set load factor Lt (min) of the first cogeneration apparatus (gas turbine 22) is set to 50%.

  In step S14, the simulation device 80 sets the load factor Le of the second cogeneration device (gas engine 24) as the minimum set load factor Le (min). Here, as shown in FIG. 5, the minimum set load factor Le (min) of the second cogeneration apparatus (gas engine 24) is set to 50%.

  In step S15, the simulation apparatus 80 sets the target time T, which is the start time of the unit time to be calculated in the target date D, to 0:00.

  In step S <b> 16, the simulation device 80 uses the load factor Lt of the first cogeneration device and the load factor Le of the second cogeneration device 24, etc., to determine the amount of energy demand between the target time T and the unit time (1 hour) (step The estimated operation cost that satisfies the corresponding time value of the data specified in S11 is calculated. Here, as described above, the electric power energy and the thermal energy obtained when the first and second cogeneration devices are operated under the operating conditions based on the set load factors are calculated, and the first and second cogenerations at that time are calculated. The operating cost of the device is also calculated. Then, the energy that is insufficient with only the electric power and thermal energy obtained from the first and second cogeneration apparatuses is covered by the electric energy from the power purchase and the thermal energy from the boiler 26, and the unit time (1 To meet the demand for electricity and heat during (hours). And the power purchase cost and the operating cost of the boiler 26 are calculated. As a result, a total cost is calculated by adding the operation cost of the cogeneration device, the operation cost of the boiler 26, and the power purchase cost, and is estimated as the total cost corresponding to the target time T and the operation conditions of the first and second cogeneration devices. Calculate operating costs.

  In step S17, the simulation device 80 stores the target date D, the target time T, the load factor Lt of the first cogeneration device, the load factor Le of the second cogeneration device, and the estimated operation cost in association with each other in the hard disk 83. .

  In step S18, the simulation apparatus 80 advances the target time T by one hour.

  In step S19, the simulation apparatus 80 determines whether or not the target time T has passed 23:00. If it is determined that the target time T has not passed 23:00, the process returns to step S16. On the other hand, if the target time T has passed 23:00, the process proceeds to step S20.

  In step S20, the simulation device 80 calculates the sum of the estimated operation costs for one day of the target date D under the operating conditions (the load factor Lt of the first cogeneration device and the load factor Le of the second cogeneration device). calculate.

  In step S21, the simulation apparatus 80 increases the load factor Le of the second cogeneration apparatus by 1%.

  In step S22, the simulation device 80 determines whether or not the load factor Le of the second cogeneration device is larger than the maximum set load factor Le (max). As a result of the determination, if the load factor Le of the second cogeneration apparatus is equal to or less than the maximum set load factor Le (max), the process returns to step S15. On the other hand, when the load factor Le of the second cogeneration device is larger than the maximum set load factor Le (max), the process proceeds to step S23.

  In step S23, the simulation device 80 returns the load factor Le of the second cogeneration device to the minimum set load factor Le (min).

  In step S24, the simulation apparatus 80 increases the load factor Lt of the first cogeneration apparatus by 1%.

  In step S25, the simulation device 80 determines whether or not the load factor Lt of the first cogeneration device is greater than the maximum set load factor Lt (max). As a result of the determination, when the load factor Lt of the first cogeneration apparatus is equal to or less than the maximum set load factor Lt (max), the process returns to step S15. On the other hand, when the load factor Lt of the first cogeneration apparatus is larger than the maximum set load factor Lt (max), the process proceeds to step S26.

  In step S26, the simulation apparatus 80 advances the target date D by one day.

  In step S27, the simulation apparatus 80 determines whether or not the target date D has passed the target period last date Dx. As a result of this determination, if the target date D has not passed the target period final date Dx, the process returns to step S13. On the other hand, when the target date D has passed the target period last date Dx, the process proceeds to step S28.

  In step S28, the simulation device 80 corresponds to the target period X days for all the target days D for each operating condition (the load factor Lt of the first cogeneration device and the load factor Le of the second cogeneration device). The estimated operation cost is calculated by summing up, and a list (see FIG. 9) is created in which each estimated operation cost is associated with each operation condition.

  In the operation of the cogeneration system 20, a minimum amount of electric power is usually secured from an electric power company or the like by the above-described power receiving facility 25 (see FIG. 2). Here, in the case of operating conditions in which the sum of the minimum amount of power and the power obtained by the first and second cogeneration devices exceeds the power demand, the minimum level obtained by the power receiving facility 25. The estimated operating cost when operating in this state is calculated by setting the operating conditions such that the output of the first and second cogeneration devices is suppressed with priority being used.

  At this time, the amount of power obtained by the first and second cogeneration devices is small, and the amount of power that needs to be purchased to satisfy the power demand of the cogeneration system 20 is contracted with a power company or the like. When the amount of power received exceeds the power reception value, “ERR” is indicated in correspondence with the corresponding operation condition. On the other hand, even when the amount of electric power obtained by the first and second cogeneration devices is large and exceeds the power demand amount of the cogeneration system 20, it indicates “ERR” corresponding to the corresponding operation condition. In addition, the amount of heat obtained by the first and second cogeneration devices is small, and the heat demand cannot be supplemented by the heat obtained by the boiler 26, or the amount of heat obtained by the first and second cogeneration devices is large. Even in the case where the amount is exceeded, it is indicated that “ERR” as in the case of the display about power.

  In step S29, the simulation apparatus 80 selects an operation condition (optimum operation condition) corresponding to a minimum value among the estimated operation costs calculated in step S28, and the estimated operation cost is displayed on the display 86 together with the optimum operation condition. Display. Here, for example, as the optimum operation condition, as shown in FIG. 9, when the estimated operation cost becomes the minimum value (“1291” in FIG. 9), that is, the load of the first cogeneration apparatus (gas turbine 22). Where the rate Lt is 100% and the load factor Le of the second cogeneration device (gas engine 24) is 70%, etc., which is different from the display mode of the part that is not the optimum operating condition, and the part where the estimated operating cost is not minimum Unlike the display mode, the colors are displayed for easy viewing.

[Characteristics of the simulation apparatus according to the first embodiment]
(1)
In general, at the site where the actual operation of the cogeneration system is performed, managers such as factory power demand facilities and heat demand facilities often change the operating conditions manually. Energy demand (power demand and heat demand) tends to fluctuate on a seasonal basis, and such an operation condition change operation by an administrator is usually not performed frequently. For this reason, the operation of changing the operating conditions is often performed at relatively long intervals. In such a case, even if the minimum operating conditions in a relatively short period of time are obtained for the purpose of optimizing the cost of the cogeneration system, the operation conditions are not changed frequently by the administrator. Above, it is difficult to use as valid data.

  On the other hand, in the simulation apparatus 80 according to the first embodiment, by specifying the energy demand for each unit time (1 hour), the target period (X days) longer than the unit time (1 hour) is determined. The estimated operation cost can be obtained for each operation condition of the cogeneration apparatus. Thereby, the driving | running conditions which can be operate | used at the lowest cost among the estimated driving | running costs in each calculated | required target period (X day) can be grasped | ascertained. For this reason, it is possible to grasp the operating conditions at low cost when the target period (X days), which is a period longer than the unit time (1 hour), is targeted. Therefore, by setting the target period (X days) to an appropriate length instead of a short period as needed at the factory 30, the operation can be performed while reducing the operating cost while reducing the operating cost. The operating conditions that can be performed can be determined.

(2)
In the operation of the cogeneration system 20, when the system equipment such as the gas turbine 22 is installed, in the operation of frequently changing the operating conditions such as the start and stop being repeated too frequently, the gas turbine 22 It is not preferable from the viewpoint of the lifetime of the system equipment.

  On the other hand, in the simulation apparatus 80 according to the first embodiment, it is possible to obtain an operation condition that can reduce a burden on a system device such as the gas turbine 22 and the like, in which the change frequency of the operation condition is suppressed. By operating the cogeneration system 20 based on this calculation result, it is possible to suppress frequent changes in operating conditions and improve the life of the system equipment.

(3)
In the simulation apparatus 80 according to the first embodiment, the estimated operation cost, the operation condition, and the like can be displayed on the display 86 and the like. For this reason, the administrator of the cogeneration system 20 can easily grasp the optimum operating conditions. In addition, since the display of the minimum estimated operation cost and the optimal operation condition here is displayed in a special mode different from the other parts (see FIG. 9), the administrator of the cogeneration system 20 determines the optimal operation condition and the like more. It can be easily grasped.

[Modification of First Embodiment]
(A)
In the simulation apparatus 80 according to the first embodiment described above, as shown in the flowcharts of FIGS. 6 to 8, first, an estimated operation cost per unit time (1 hour) is calculated for every planned operation condition, Subsequently, the estimated operating cost for each unit time (1 hour) is summed up for each driving condition to calculate the estimated driving cost for one day, and the estimated driving cost for each day is summed up to obtain the target. The estimated operating cost required for the period (X days) is obtained for each operating condition.

  On the other hand, an estimated operation cost per unit time (1 hour) under a certain operation condition among all planned operation conditions is calculated, and then the estimated operation per unit time (1 hour) is calculated. The estimated operating cost for one day is calculated by adding the costs, and the estimated operating cost for the target period (X days) is calculated by adding the estimated operating costs for each day. By repeating these steps while changing the operating conditions and calculating the estimated operating cost required for the target period for each operating condition, the estimated operating cost required for the target period (X days) is obtained corresponding to each operating condition. You may do it.

  Moreover, the estimated driving | operation cost for every unit time (1 hour) is calculated for every planned driving | running condition, Then, the target period (X day) is directly used for the target period (X day). The estimated operation cost required for (day X) may be obtained corresponding to each operation condition. Further, similarly to the above-described modification, an estimated operation cost per unit time (1 hour) under a predetermined operation condition among all the planned operation conditions is calculated, and subsequently, the target period (X days) is calculated. Calculate the estimated operating cost for the target period (X days) directly using the time converted value, and repeat the above steps while changing the operating conditions to drive the estimated operating cost required for the target period (X days). You may make it obtain | require corresponding to every condition. Specifically, for example, when one week is the target period, the condition shown in step S19 in FIG. 7 is not T> 23:00, but T> 16:00 (7 days of 24 hours). . In this way, the process of step S28 can be simplified. In this case, the list may be created sequentially.

(B)
In the simulation apparatus 80 according to the first embodiment described above, the energy demand is specified based on the past operation data of the cogeneration system 20 in the calculation of the estimated operation cost.

  On the other hand, the energy demand may be specified by obtaining information by making an input request to the input person, and the energy demand is derived from the energy intensity and the production plan. May be.

(C)
In the simulation device 80 according to the first embodiment described above, the administrator of the cogeneration system 20 manually changes the operation conditions of the cogeneration device while referring to the calculation result of the optimum operation conditions obtained by the simulation device 80. Is going on.

  On the other hand, as shown in FIG. 10, a system controller 100 including the above-described simulation device 80 and a cogeneration system control device 90 that performs control with reference to the calculation result of the optimum operating condition obtained by the simulation device 80. Etc. may be used to enable automatic control of the operation of the cogeneration system 20. In this case, since the control of the cogeneration system 20 based on the optimum operation condition is automatically performed, the administrator can simplify the operation condition setting change operation.

(D)
In the simulation apparatus 80 according to the first embodiment described above, the difference between the output form of the other parts is provided by outputting the optimum operating condition and the minimum value of the estimated operating cost in a special manner of coloring and displaying. Yes. On the other hand, the difference in the output form here is not limited to the presence or absence of such coloring. For example, the type of characters and columns, the difference in colors of characters and columns, decoration It may be presence or absence.

(E)
In the simulation apparatus 80 according to the first embodiment described above, two cogeneration apparatuses in the cogeneration system 20 are provided, that is, the gas turbine 22 (first cogeneration apparatus) and the gas engine 24 (second cogeneration apparatus). The estimated operating cost is calculated according to the operating conditions.

  On the other hand, as shown in FIG. 11, a cogeneration system 220 including only the gas turbine 22 (first cogeneration apparatus) may be used as the cogeneration apparatus in the cogeneration system 20. In this case, the estimated operation cost, which is the total cost, may be calculated based on the operation condition of the one unit. Further, the single cogeneration device may be a gas engine 24 (second cogeneration device).

  In addition to the first and second cogeneration devices, the cogeneration system 20 is provided with a large number of three or more cogeneration devices such as a third cogeneration device, a fourth cogeneration device, etc. Also good. In this case, the estimated operation cost may be obtained based on each operation condition (multidimensional) for each of the plurality of vehicles.

(F)
In the simulation apparatus 80 according to the first embodiment described above, the day of “X days” is used as the unit as the target period. However, depending on the nature of the factory 30, the operating status, the season, etc., the target period is simulated in units of months and years. It is also possible to make it.

(G)
In the simulation apparatus 80 according to the first embodiment described above, the first and second cogeneration apparatuses are described as an example in which both the minimum load factor is 50% and the maximum load factor is both 100%. The minimum and maximum load factors may be set in different ranges depending on the characteristics of each device for each of the first cogeneration device and the second cogeneration device, and the maximum set value is not limited to 100%. In addition, the operating conditions may be calculated while changing every 1%, but may have a larger change width or a smaller change width. Furthermore, it may be adjusted such that the estimated operation cost is changed to 0.5% increments only for a portion where the estimated operation cost is likely to be minimized. Further, the operating condition is not limited to the load factor of the cogeneration apparatus, and the amount of fuel consumed and the output value of each cogeneration apparatus may be adopted.

(H)
In the simulation apparatus 80 according to the first embodiment described above, a portion corresponding to the optimum operating condition and the minimum value of the estimated operating cost is displayed in a special manner to notify the administrator of the cogeneration system 20. On the other hand, instead of displaying only the optimum value in a special manner, it is divided into stages where the cost is increased by a predetermined threshold value from the minimum value of the estimated operation cost, for example, the optimum display manner, appropriate display manner, and implementation The display mode may be displayed separately for each level such as the possible display mode. In this case, when the cogeneration system 20 cannot be operated due to an optimum operation condition for some reason, it becomes easy to grasp the next best operation condition. In addition, if there are some important restrictions in the operation of the cogeneration system 20 instead of setting the low cost as a minimum condition, to what extent the cost can be suppressed under the restrictions. Can also be easily grasped.

[Co-generation system simulation apparatus according to second embodiment]
The simulation device 280 of the cogeneration system 220 according to the second embodiment is substantially the same as the configuration of the simulation device 80 in the first embodiment, but here, it has been described in the modification (E) of the first embodiment. The present invention is applied to a cogeneration system 220 (see FIG. 11) in the case of a single cogeneration apparatus (gas turbine 22). The difference between the configuration of the simulation apparatus 280 according to the second embodiment and the configuration of the simulation apparatus 80 according to the first embodiment is mainly different in the simulation programs 83a and 283a, as shown in FIG. In addition, since the other configurations are substantially the same, the description thereof is omitted.

  In the simulation program 283a in the second embodiment, as a main difference from the simulation program 83a in the first embodiment, there are a time point when the operating condition is changed between the beginning and the end of the target period and a time point when the operating condition is restored. Estimated operating costs for each operating condition are calculated for each combination of the starting point for changing the operating condition and the ending point for returning the operating condition (for each operating condition change timing). There is a point that can be.

[Flow of estimated operating cost calculation]
Hereinafter, the flow of calculating the estimated operation cost of the cogeneration system 20 by the simulation program 283a in the second embodiment of the simulation apparatus 80 will be described in detail with reference to FIGS. 13, 14, and 15. FIG.

  The calculation of the estimated operation cost here mainly includes steps S31 to S39, steps S40, and S60 described below. Here, when the factory 30 is operated for the target period (one day), the timing for changing the operating conditions of the cogeneration system to satisfy the required energy demand (a timing for starting and ending a set of operations) ) And the operation conditions at that time and the case of calculating the corresponding estimated operation costs will be described below as an example. The operating conditions here are determined by the load factor of the cogeneration device (gas turbine 22), and a case where each load factor is calculated differently by 1% will be described.

  In step S <b> 31, the simulation apparatus 280 specifies “energy demand in each time zone” for each hour of the day based on past operation data of the cogeneration system 220.

  In step S32, the simulation apparatus 280 sets the start time (first operation condition change time) Ts for changing the operation condition (change to the high load time zone) Ts in the target period (one day) to 0:00. .

  In step S33, the simulation apparatus 280 sets an end time (second operation condition change time) Te for changing the operation condition (change to return from the high load time zone) in the target period (one day), The time is set to a time that is a division time (Δt = 1 hour) from the start time Ts.

  Then, the following steps S40 and S60 are processed under the conditions of the start time Ts and the end time Te determined by step S32 (or step S37 described later) and step S33.

  In step S40, the “low load time zone operation cost calculation process (steps S41 to S55)” is executed by the simulation device 280, and the estimated operation cost in the low load time zone is determined under the conditions of the start time Ts and the end time Te. Thus, the low-load time zone operation cost required from 0:00 to the start time Ts and from the end time Te to 24:00 is calculated (details will be described later).

  In step S60, the “high load time zone operation cost calculation process (step S61 to step S70)” is executed by the simulation device 280, and the estimated operation cost in the high load time zone is determined under the conditions of the start time Ts and the end time Te. The high-load time zone operation cost required between the start time Ts and the end time Te is calculated (details will be described later).

  In step S34, the simulation apparatus 280 performs the low load time zone operation cost calculated by the low load time zone operation cost calculation process in step S40 under the conditions of the start time Ts and the end time Te, and the high load in step S60. The operation cost obtained by adding the high load time zone operation cost calculated by the time zone operation cost calculation process is stored in the hard disk 83 in association with the start time Ts and the end time Te.

  In step S35, the simulation apparatus 280 advances the end time Te by a divided time (1 hour).

  In step S36, the simulation apparatus 280 determines whether or not the end time Te exceeds 24:00. If it is determined that the end time Te does not exceed 24:00, the process returns to step S40. On the other hand, if it is determined that the end time Te exceeds 24:00, the process proceeds to step S37.

  In step S37, the simulation apparatus 280 advances the start time Ts by the division time (1 hour).

  In step S38, the simulation apparatus 280 determines whether or not the start time Ts exceeds the time (23:00) that is returned by the divided time (1 hour) from 24:00. If it is determined that the start time Ts does not exceed 23:00, the process returns to step S33. On the other hand, if it is determined that the start time Ts exceeds 23:00, the process proceeds to step S39.

  In step S39, the simulation apparatus 280 performs the low load time period operation cost calculated by the low load time period operation cost calculation process in step S40 and the high load time calculated by the high load time period operation cost calculation process in step S60. The case where the operation cost obtained by adding the belt operation cost is minimized is selected, and in that case, the start time (first operation condition change time) Ts, the end time (second operation condition change time) Te, Each value of the load factor x (described later) in the low load time zone and the load factor y (described later) in the high load time zone is stored in the hard disk 83. The start time Ts, end time Te, load factor x in the low load time zone, and load factor y in the high load time zone are displayed on the display 86 in association with each other.

(Low-load time zone operating cost calculation process)
In the low load time zone operation cost calculation processing (step S41 to step S55) in step 40 described above, the operation cost calculation processing in the low load time zone of the cogeneration apparatus is performed as described below.

  In step S41, the simulation device 280 sets the load factor x of the cogeneration device to the minimum set load factor. For example, as in the first embodiment, the load factor of the gas turbine 22 is set to 50% as shown in FIG.

  In step S42, the simulation apparatus 280 sets the target time T to 0:00, and sets the low load time zone operation cost to 0 as an initial value.

  In step S43, the simulation apparatus 280 determines whether the target time T is equal to the start time Ts. If it is determined that the target time T is equal to the start time Ts, the process proceeds to step S47. On the other hand, if it is determined that the target time T is not equal to the start time Ts, the process proceeds to step S44.

  In step S44, the simulation device 280 calculates an operation cost C in the case where the energy demand amount for one hour from the target time T is satisfied under the operation condition based on the load factor x of the cogeneration device. Specifically, using the load factor x of the cogeneration apparatus (gas turbine 22), an operation cost that satisfies the energy demand during one hour from the target time T is calculated. That is, as in the first embodiment, the power energy and thermal energy obtained when the cogeneration apparatus is operated under the operation condition with the set load factor x are calculated, and the operating cost of the cogeneration apparatus at that time is also calculated. Then, the power and heat energy obtained from the cogeneration apparatus is covered by the power energy from the power purchase and the heat energy from the boiler 26, and the power and heat demand for one hour from the target time T here. Fill the amount. And the power purchase cost and the operating cost of the boiler 26 are calculated. Thereby, the total cost which totaled the operation cost of the cogeneration apparatus, the operation cost of the boiler 26, and the power purchase cost is calculated, and the operation cost which is the total cost is calculated.

  In step S45, the simulation apparatus 280 adds the operation cost C calculated in step S44 to the low load time period operation cost.

  In step S46, the simulation apparatus 280 advances the target time T by one hour and returns to step S43.

  Step S47 is a process performed on condition that the target time T is determined to be equal to the start time Ts in step S43, and the simulation apparatus 280 sets the target time T as the end time Te.

  In step S48, the simulation apparatus 280 determines whether or not the target time T exceeds 23:00. If it is determined that the target time T has exceeded 23:00, the process proceeds to step S52. On the other hand, if it is determined that the target time T does not exceed 23:00, the process proceeds to step S49.

  In step S49, the simulation device 280 calculates an operation cost C in the case where the energy demand amount for one hour from the target time T is satisfied in the operation condition based on the load factor x of the cogeneration device. The calculation method of the operating cost C here is the same as in step S44.

  In step S50, the simulation apparatus 280 adds the operating cost C calculated in step S49 to the load time period operating cost.

  In step S51, the simulation apparatus 280 advances the target time T by one hour and returns to step S48.

  Step S52 is a process performed on the condition that the target time T is determined to exceed 24 o'clock in Step S48, and the simulation device 280 finally calculates the load time zone calculated in the process of Step S50. The operating cost is stored in the hard disk 83 in correspondence with the load factor x of the cogeneration apparatus used as the calculation condition.

  In step S53, the simulation apparatus 280 increases the load factor x of the cogeneration apparatus by 1%.

  In step S54, the simulation apparatus 280 determines whether or not the load factor x exceeds the maximum set load factor. If it is determined that the load factor x does not exceed the maximum set load factor, the process returns to step S42. On the other hand, if it is determined that the load factor x exceeds the maximum set load factor, the process proceeds to step S55.

  In step S55, the simulation apparatus 280 selects the load factor x that minimizes the low load time zone operation cost under the conditions of the start time TS and the end time Te, and the load factor x and the low load time zone operation at that time Each value is stored in the hard disk 83 in association with the cost.

  Then, the process proceeds to step 60 with the start time Ts and end time Te being the same.

(High load time operation cost calculation processing)
In the high load time zone operation cost calculation processing (step S61 to step S70) in step 60 described above, the operation cost calculation processing in the high load time zone of the cogeneration apparatus is performed as described below.

  In step S61, the simulation device 280 sets the load factor y of the cogeneration device to the minimum set load factor.

  In step S62, the simulation apparatus 280 sets the target time T to the start time Ts, and sets the high load time zone operation cost to 0 as an initial value.

  In step S63, the simulation apparatus 280 determines whether the target time T is equal to the end time Te. If it is determined that the target time T is equal to the end time Te, the process proceeds to step S67. On the other hand, if it is determined that the target time T is not equal to the end time Te, the process proceeds to step S64.

  In step S64, the simulation device 280 calculates an operation cost C in the case where the energy demand amount for one hour from the target time T is satisfied under the operation condition based on the load factor y of the cogeneration device.

  In step S65, the simulation apparatus 280 adds the operation cost C calculated in step S64 to the high load time period operation cost.

  In step S66, the simulation apparatus 280 advances the target time T by one hour and returns to step S63.

  Step S67 is a process performed on condition that the target time T is determined to be equal to the end time Te in step S63, and the simulation device 280 finally calculates the high load time period calculated in the process of step S65. The operating cost is stored in the hard disk 83 in correspondence with the load factor y of the cogeneration apparatus used as the calculation condition.

  In step S68, the simulation apparatus 280 increases the load factor y of the cogeneration apparatus by 1%.

  In step S69, the simulation apparatus 280 determines whether or not the load factor y exceeds the maximum set load factor. If it is determined that the load factor y does not exceed the maximum set load factor, the process returns to step S62. On the other hand, if it is determined that the load factor y exceeds the maximum set load factor, the process proceeds to step S70.

  In step S70, the simulation device 280 selects the load factor y that minimizes the high load time zone operation cost under the conditions of the start time TS and the end time Te, and the load factor y and the high load time zone operation at that time are selected. Each value is stored in the hard disk 83 in association with the cost.

[Characteristics of the simulation apparatus according to the second embodiment]
The characteristics of the simulation apparatus 280 of the cogeneration system 220 according to the second embodiment are substantially the same as the characteristics of the simulation apparatus 80 in the first embodiment. Here, the characteristics of the simulation apparatus 80 in the first embodiment are as follows. Differences will be described, and descriptions of similar features will be omitted.

(1)
In the simulation apparatus 280 according to the second embodiment, the start time Ts and the end time Te of the high load time period Ts to Te are changed by the simulation program 283a. Thereby, it becomes possible to perform the calculation operation of the estimated operation cost while changing the high load time period Ts to Te. For this reason, in each driving | running condition, an estimated driving | operation cost is computable for every conditions of start time Ts and end time Te. Since these results are respectively displayed and displayed on the display 86, the administrator of the cogeneration system 220 grasps the relationship between the timing for changing the operation conditions of the cogeneration system 220 and the estimated operation cost. It becomes possible.

  Thereby, for example, it is possible to easily select an operation condition change timing at which the operation condition change operation can be performed at a timing convenient for the administrator of the cogeneration system 220 while keeping the operation cost as low as possible. .

(2)
In the simulation apparatus 280 according to the second embodiment, not only the estimated operation cost depending on the operation condition but also the estimated operation cost corresponding to each of the high load time periods Ts to Te for each operation condition is displayed. 86, the manager of the cogeneration system 220 can more easily grasp the estimated operation cost corresponding to each high load time period Ts to Te period (condition change timing) for each operation condition. .

[Modification of Second Embodiment]
In addition, although description is abbreviate | omitted about the content described as a modification of 1st Embodiment, any modification can be applicable with respect to this 2nd Embodiment, and there can exist the same effect. Hereinafter, modifications specific to the second embodiment will be described.

(A)
In the simulation apparatus 280 of the cogeneration system 220 according to the second embodiment described above, the case where the target period for calculating the estimated operation cost by the simulation program 283a is one day has been described. On the other hand, the target period is set to several days, months, etc., and simulations are performed for each day during the set countermeasure period, so as to obtain the optimum operating conditions in the target period. Good. That is, a simulation under conditions of the high load time period Ts to Te is performed every day during the set countermeasure period, and the estimated operation cost for the target period obtained by adding the calculated estimated operation costs is determined as the optimum operation. You may make it obtain | require corresponding to each of conditions and high load time slot | zones Ts-Te. For example, when the target period is set to 5 days, the cogeneration system 220 is operated every day during the target period (5 days) according to the determined optimum operating conditions and high load time periods Ts to Te. By operating in such a manner, the cogeneration system 220 can be operated (estimated) at low cost.

(B)
In the simulation apparatus 280 of the cogeneration system 220 according to the second embodiment described above, a case where the target period is one day and a set of operation conditions for starting and ending the operation is changed during the target period will be described. did. However, the change of the operating condition here is not limited to such an aspect, and it is also possible to calculate each value when changing a plurality of times (a plurality of sets) during the target period. In this case, it is also possible to grasp the relationship with the estimated operating cost when the frequency of changing the operating conditions is suppressed to a desired level.

(C)
In the simulation apparatus 280 of the cogeneration system 220 according to the second embodiment described above, the case where the cogeneration apparatus is one gas turbine 22 has been described. On the other hand, the cogeneration apparatus may be a single gas engine 24. In this case, the cogeneration apparatus can be implemented in the same manner, and the same effect can be obtained.

  Further, the cogeneration apparatus may be composed of two or more units, and in the cogeneration system 220, using the simulation apparatus 280 of the second embodiment, for each operating condition of each cogeneration apparatus, You may make it calculate | require the optimal driving | running condition by calculating the estimated driving | running cost according to every high load time slot | zone Ts-Te.

(D)
In the simulation apparatus 280 of the cogeneration system 220 according to the second embodiment described above, the case where the period of Ts to Te is set for the daytime when the energy load increases is described. On the other hand, the same effects as those of the second embodiment can be achieved even in the time zone when the energy load is low. That is, the time period from Ts to Te is not limited to the case where the load is higher than that in the other time periods, but may be determined according to the case where the operation condition is changed according to the change in the load state. Good.

  The cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program according to the present invention is capable of obtaining an operation condition that can reduce the change frequency to a practical level while suppressing the operation cost, and is suitable for proper operation of the cogeneration system. Can be useful.

The schematic diagram of the cogeneration system in a 1st embodiment. Explanatory drawing of the specific structure and energy flow of a cogeneration system. The simple block diagram of the simulation apparatus in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows schematic operation | movement of a simulation apparatus. The figure which shows the one aspect | mode of the estimated energy demand specified. The flowchart (1) showing the flow of the estimated driving cost calculation in 1st Embodiment. The flowchart (2) showing the flow of estimated operation cost calculation in 1st Embodiment. The flowchart (3) showing the flow of estimated operation cost calculation in 1st Embodiment. The figure which shows the one aspect | mode of the output result of an estimated driving cost. The schematic diagram of the cogeneration system in modification (C) of a 1st embodiment. The schematic diagram of the cogeneration system in modification (E) of a 1st embodiment. The simple block diagram of the simulation apparatus in 2nd Embodiment. The flowchart showing the flow of estimated operation cost calculation in 2nd Embodiment. The flowchart showing the flow of calculation of low load time zone operation cost. The flowchart showing the flow of calculation of high load time zone operation cost.

Explanation of symbols

20 Cogeneration system according to the first embodiment 22 Cogeneration system (gas turbine)
24 Cogeneration system (gas engine)
26 External power relay device (power receiving equipment)
80 Computer, Estimated operating cost calculation device (simulation device)
83a Cogeneration system estimated operating cost calculation program (simulation program)
220 Cogeneration system according to second embodiment, cogeneration system 280 according to modification (E) of first embodiment Simulation device (estimated operating cost calculation device)
283a Cogeneration system estimated operating cost calculation program (simulation program)

Claims (7)

The cogeneration system (20) that supplies electric energy and thermal energy is used together with the electric energy supplied by the external power device ( 25 ) external to the cogeneration system (20). A cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program (83a) for causing the computer (80) to calculate the heat energy supplied by the external heat device (26) outside (20) in combination ,
An estimated demand specifying step for specifying the estimated electric demand of the electric energy and the estimated heat demand of the thermal energy for each of a plurality of second periods constituting the first period for the computer (80);
Depending on the estimated demand for each second period, the cogeneration system (20) is operated at a constant low load during the period from the start to the end of the low load constituted by the plurality of second periods. Further, the shortage of the electric energy is compensated by the external electric device (25), and the shortage of the heat energy corresponding to the estimated heat demand for each second period is compensated by the external heat device (26). A low load simulation step for performing a load simulation;
The cogeneration system (20) is operated at a constant high load higher than the low load during the high load period excluding the low load period of the first period constituted by the plurality of second periods. The shortage of the thermal energy according to the estimated demand for each second period is compensated by the external electric device (25) for the shortage of the electrical energy according to the estimated electrical demand for the second period. A high load simulation step of performing a high load simulation by supplementing the external heat device (26) with a minute;
For the computer (80), the cogeneration system (20), the external electric device (25), and the external heat device (26) that can be calculated based on at least an operating condition are included in the first period in each simulation. Calculating the cost required through the start of the low load, the end of the low load, changing the constant low load value and the constant high load value;
An output step of outputting the calculated cost in association with the constant low load value and the constant high load value at the start of the low load, at the end of the low load, and
Comprising
Cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program (83a). When the range of the amount of energy supplied by the external power device (25) is predetermined every second period,
In the output step,
The amount of electrical energy for each second period supplied by the external power device (25) and the minimum amount of electrical energy within the predetermined range, and the first amount obtained by the cogeneration system (20). A minimum total electric energy amount obtained by summing the electric energy amount in two periods exceeds the estimated electric demand amount in the second period; and
The amount of electrical energy supplied by the external power device (25) for each second period, and the maximum amount of electrical energy within the predetermined range, and the first amount obtained by the cogeneration system (20). When the maximum total electric energy amount obtained by summing the electric energy amount in two periods is less than the estimated electric demand amount in the second period,
Specify and output the operating conditions,
The cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program (83a) according to claim 1 . Minimum value of cost output to the computer (80) in association with the constant low load value and the constant high load value at the start of the low load, at the end of the low load An optimum condition output step of outputting an optimum condition that is the constant low load value and the constant high load value at the start of the low load and at the end of the low load corresponding to
The cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program (83a) according to claim 1 or 2 . A cogeneration system control step of causing the computer (80) to control the cogeneration system (20) based on the optimum condition ;
The cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program (83a) according to claim 3 . Minimum value of cost output to the computer (80) in association with the constant low load value and the constant high load value at the start of the low load, at the end of the low load Or an output mode different from the others, or at the start of low load corresponding to the minimum value of the cost, at the end of low load, the constant low load value and the constant high load value Is an output mode different from the others,
The cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation program (83a) according to any one of claims 1 to 4 . The cogeneration system (20) that supplies electric energy and thermal energy is used together with the electric energy supplied by the external power device ( 25 ) external to the cogeneration system (20). A cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation method for causing the computer (80) to calculate the heat energy supplied by the external heat device (26) outside (20) in combination ,
An estimated demand specifying step for specifying the estimated electric demand of the electric energy and the estimated heat demand of the thermal energy for each of a plurality of second periods constituting the first period for the computer (80);
Depending on the estimated demand for each second period, the cogeneration system (20) is operated at a constant low load during the period from the start to the end of the low load constituted by the plurality of second periods. Further, the shortage of the electric energy is compensated by the external electric device (25), and the shortage of the heat energy corresponding to the estimated heat demand for each second period is compensated by the external heat device (26). A low load simulation step for performing a load simulation;
The cogeneration system (20) is operated at a constant high load higher than the low load during the high load period excluding the low load period of the first period constituted by the plurality of second periods. The shortage of the thermal energy according to the estimated demand for each second period is compensated by the external electric device (25) for the shortage of the electrical energy according to the estimated electrical demand for the second period. A high load simulation step of performing a high load simulation by supplementing the external heat device (26) with a minute;
For the computer (80), the cogeneration system (20), the external electric device (25), and the external heat device (26) that can be calculated based on at least an operating condition are included in the first period in each simulation. Calculating the cost required through the start of the low load, the end of the low load, changing the constant low load value and the constant high load value;
An output step of outputting the calculated cost in association with the constant low load value and the constant high load value at the start of the low load, at the end of the low load, and
Comprising
Cogeneration system estimated operating cost calculation method. The cogeneration system (20) that supplies electric energy and thermal energy is used together with the electric energy supplied by the external power device ( 25 ) external to the cogeneration system (20). A cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation device (80) for calculating thermal energy supplied by an external heat device (26) outside (20) ,
An estimated demand specifying means for specifying the estimated electrical demand of the electrical energy and the estimated thermal demand of the thermal energy in each of a plurality of second periods constituting the first period;
Depending on the estimated demand for each second period, the cogeneration system (20) is operated at a constant low load during the period from the start to the end of the low load constituted by the plurality of second periods. Further, the shortage of the electric energy is compensated by the external electric device (25), and the shortage of the heat energy corresponding to the estimated heat demand for each second period is compensated by the external heat device (26). A low load simulation means for performing a load simulation;
The cogeneration system (20) is operated at a constant high load higher than the low load during the high load period excluding the low load period of the first period constituted by the plurality of second periods. The shortage of the thermal energy according to the estimated demand for each second period is compensated by the external electric device (25) for the shortage of the electrical energy according to the estimated electrical demand for the second period. A high load simulation means for performing a high load simulation by supplementing the external heat device (26) with a minute,
The cost required by the cogeneration system (20), the external electrical device (25), and the external heat device (26) that can be calculated based on at least operating conditions is reduced through the first period in each simulation. Means for calculating at the start of load, at the end of low load, changing the constant low load value and the constant high load value;
An output means for outputting the calculated cost in association with the constant low load value and the constant high load value at the start of the low load, at the end of the low load, and
Comprising
Cogeneration system estimated operation cost calculation device (80).

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