JP4281652B2 - Method and apparatus for optimizing structure maintenance management plan and program thereof - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention generally relates to a technique for obtaining an optimal maintenance management plan in consideration of economy when maintaining structures such as devices and equipment.

2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, there is a technology that supports maintenance of plant equipment as a structure by evaluating the remaining life and performing appropriate maintenance management. In this technology, by changing the operating conditions of the plant equipment, specifically, by adjusting the life consumption rate by lowering the level of external force acting on the equipment such as plants, so that the plant risk does not exceed the upper limit. It controls (for example, refer patent document 1).
JP 2002-73155 A

  The above-described prior art prevents plant facilities from being damaged by changing operating conditions as described above, and safely maintains and manages them until their useful life. When maintaining and managing the structure until its useful life, as an approach different from the above-mentioned conventional technology, a method can be considered in which the deteriorated part of the structure is appropriately repaired and renewed to restore durability. . In this case, it is desirable to carry out planned repairs and updates while predicting the deterioration of the structure, but it is difficult to formulate an optimal maintenance management plan in consideration of costs and other economic aspects. There was a problem.

  In view of such a point of the present invention, in maintaining a structure until its useful life, it is possible to develop an optimal maintenance management plan in consideration of deterioration and cost of the structure. It is an object of the present invention to provide a maintenance plan optimization method, an apparatus thereof, and a program.

A structure maintenance management plan optimizing method according to the present invention is a structure maintenance management plan optimization method for preparing an optimum maintenance management plan for maintaining a structure. A risk curve creation process that creates a basic risk curve from the present to the future for each component based on the prediction of deterioration of the component, and multiple repairs that can be performed on each component for each component・ The renewal method and the cost required for the repair / renewal method are stored in association with the countermeasure method database, and various information stored in the countermeasure method database is read out . Based on a basic risk curve and a preset risk limit value, the risk of a component is limited by the lifetime of the component. Repair / update plan planning process for each component, and a plurality of plans designed for each component Judging repair and renewal plans comprehensively, seeking and seeking a combination of repair and renewal plans that do not concentrate in a certain year and that do not exceed the annual budget in each year. A maintenance management plan decision that evaluates costs using the costs stored in the countermeasure method database for each of the combinations, and determines the combination of repair / update plans with the highest evaluation results as the maintenance management plan for the structure It has a process.

  Further, in the structure maintenance management plan optimization method according to the present invention, the repair / renewal plan is a combination of the repair / renewal construction method and the implementation timing of the construction method. Repeatedly re-evaluates the risk curve of the component while changing the combination of the renewal method and its implementation time as appropriate, and the risk curve after the re-evaluation exceeds the upper limit of risk by the lifetime of the component The plan that does not exist is the repair / update plan that should be implemented for the components.

  In the structure maintenance management plan optimization method according to the present invention, a plurality of combinations of the repair / update method and the execution time of the method are set in the repair / update plan.

  Further, in the structure maintenance management plan optimization method according to the present invention, risk curve determination information for determining a risk curve after execution of the repair / update method is further associated with each countermeasure component in the countermeasure method database. In the repair / update planning process, the risk curve is re-evaluated based on the basic risk curve created by the risk evaluation means and the risk curve determination information.

  In addition, the structure maintenance management plan optimization method according to the present invention sets a risk examination start risk level, and appropriately changes the combination of the repair / updating method and its implementation time in the repair / updating plan planning process. In this case, the setting range to be set as the implementation time is between the time when the component risk reaches the risk review start risk level and the time when the risk reaches the risk upper limit value.

  The structure maintenance management plan optimization method according to the present invention uses NPV (Net Present Value) for cost evaluation.

  Further, the structure maintenance management plan optimization method according to the present invention includes the above-described risk curve, inspection data indicating inspection results capable of determining the deterioration state of the structure, accuracy information indicating accuracy of the inspection method, design information, It is created on the basis of statistics relating to structural damage and reliability data comprising various characteristic data relating to the structural reliability of the structure.

  The program according to the present invention causes a computer to execute the structure maintenance management plan optimization method described in any of the above.

  As described above, according to the present invention, it is possible to devise an optimal maintenance management plan that takes into consideration economics while keeping the overall risk below a preset risk upper limit value. Thereby, it becomes possible to perform the maintenance management of the structure which made low cost and safety ensuring compatible.

Embodiment 1 FIG.
FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an optimization apparatus according to Embodiment 1 and Embodiment 2 of the present invention.
The optimization apparatus 1 devises and outputs an optimal maintenance management plan in consideration of the deterioration and cost of the structure when maintaining the structure such as the plant equipment and the pipeline until the useful life. The maintenance management plan is composed of repair / update plans for each component of the structure. The repair / update plan is a countermeasure method (repair / update method) to be performed on the component and its repair / update. This is to specify the timing of the construction method.

  The optimization apparatus 1 is specifically composed of a computer such as a personal computer, and includes a display device 3 such as a display, an input device 4 such as a mouse 4a and a keyboard 4b, a memory 5, a hard disk 6, a countermeasure method database 7, A CD-ROM drive 8 and a printer 9 are connected.

  The CPU 2 controls the optimization apparatus 1 as a whole, and performs processing based on the optimization program installed in the hard disk 6 according to the optimization program. The optimization program is provided by a recording medium (for example, a CD-ROM or the like) on which the program is recorded. When the optimization program is provided by the CD-ROM 8a, the optimization program is installed on the hard disk 6 via the CD-ROM drive device 8. . The optimization program and the CPU 2 implement a risk evaluation unit 2a and an optimization unit 2b.

  The risk evaluation means 2a is a means for automatically creating a basic risk curve for each component constituting the structure based on information necessary for creating the risk curve input from the input device 4. The risk curve shows the risk from the present to the future. As shown in FIG. 2, the horizontal axis shows the elapsed year and the vertical axis shows the risk.

  Here, the information necessary for creating the risk curve is information indicating the deterioration prediction of the component, and specifically, from inspection data, accuracy, design information, statistics on damage to structures and reliability data, etc. Composed. The “inspection data” is data indicating an inspection result capable of determining the deterioration state (damage state) of the structure, for example, inspection data obtained by inspecting the thickness of the buried pipe. “Accuracy” is the accuracy of the inspection method and is a value that determines the reliability of the inspection data. “Design data” is data such as pipe diameter and shape, and “statistics on damage to structures” is obtained by analyzing past damage cases related to the structure of the same type as the evaluation target and collected data in a certain item. Information. For example, x gas leaks occur annually. “Reliability data” is various characteristic data related to the structural reliability of the structure to be evaluated, such as the strength distribution of steel used in buried pipes and the distribution of external force applied to the structure. .

  The optimization means 2b includes the basic risk curve created by the risk evaluation means 2a, various information stored in the countermeasure construction method database 7, and the risk upper limit value input from the structure manager via the input device 4. Based on the above, it is a means for formulating an optimal repair / update plan for each component. The risk upper limit value is a threshold value that indicates that no further risk is allowed and repair / update is required immediately, and is set according to the safety required for the structure. The risk upper limit value is set to the same value for all components.

  The countermeasure method database 7 includes a plurality of repair / update methods applied to each component, costs (material costs, manufacturing costs, construction costs, etc.) required for the repair / update methods, and repair / updates thereof. The effect of the construction method and the risk curve determination information for determining the risk curve after the repair / update construction method are stored in association with each other. The risk curve decision information consists of information indicating how much the risk of the application site is reduced by applying the repair / update method, and a value indicating an increasing trend of the risk after the repair / update method is implemented. Composed. Specifically, the risk value immediately after the construction method (for example, in the case of thinning, the value recalculated under the condition that the tube thickness has been restored) and the subsequent increase rate of risk (such as the rate of progress of thinning) Yes, it is possible to determine the risk curve after the repair and countermeasure construction method based on this risk curve determination information.

  Here, the content of damage when the component is an embedded pipe will be described with reference to FIG. 3, and a specific example of the repair / update method for the damage will be described with reference to FIG.

FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram of damage in the buried pipe.
Usually, a buried coating is provided with a coating for corrosion. If this coating is damaged, moisture enters the surface of the tube, causing corrosion and reducing the tube thickness. As the corrosion progresses, the amount of corrosion thinning gradually increases, and eventually, holes due to corrosion penetrate the pipe and the gas inside leaks.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a specific example of the repair / updating method implemented for the buried pipe.
There are, for example, the following three types of repair / update methods applied to buried pipes, which will be described in order.
(A) Method A (Renewal (Replacement)): Excavate a place with a buried pipe, cut a length of pipe including the damaged part, and insert a new pipe instead.
(B) Method B (grinding / re-corrosion prevention): After digging the place where the buried pipe is located, peeling off the coating of the damaged part, scraping off the corrosion products (rust etc.) of the corroded part, and finishing the surface smoothly. Apply new anticorrosion coding.
(C) Method C (partial welding repair): Excavate the place where the buried pipe is located, peel off the coating of the damaged part, and scrape off the corrosion products (rust etc.) of the corroded part. Then, a patch plate is placed on the corroded portion, the edge is welded to the pipe body, and then a new anticorrosive coating is applied to the repaired portion.

  FIG. 5 is a diagram showing various types of information stored in the countermeasure construction method database. Here, the constituent elements are buried pipes, and the construction methods A to C correspond to the construction methods A to C in FIG. 4 respectively. Yes. As shown in FIG. 5, the countermeasure construction method database 7 stores three kinds of construction methods applied to the buried pipe, the effects of implementing the construction method, and the cost required for the construction method. The risk curve determination information is not shown.

FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing an outline of the operation of the optimization apparatus according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention. Hereinafter, an outline of the operation of the optimization apparatus 1 will be described with reference to FIG. 6, and then each step will be described in detail.
In the optimization device 1, first, the risk evaluation means 2a creates a basic risk curve from the present to the future for each component constituting the structure based on the deterioration prediction of the component (risk curve creation). Step) (S1). And the optimization means 2b is based on the various information memorize | stored in the countermeasure construction method database 7, the basic risk curve created by step S1, and the risk upper limit set beforehand, and the risk of a component is Each component is subjected to a process of creating a plurality of repair / update plans to be performed on the component so that the upper limit of the risk is not exceeded during the lifetime of the component (repair / update) Planning process) (S2). Next, the optimization means 2b evaluates the cost using the cost stored in the countermeasure construction method database 7 for each of the plurality of repair / update plans planned for each component, and the repair / recovery with the highest evaluation result is performed. The renewal plan is selected as an optimal plan, and the plan selected for each component is determined as a structure maintenance management plan (maintenance management plan determination step) (S3).

Hereinafter, the process of each process of the flowchart of FIG. 6 will be specifically described sequentially in the case where the constituent element is an embedded pipe.
First, the risk curve creating process in step S1 will be described. The risk curve can be obtained by appropriately setting the future progress with respect to the current degree of damage (consumption level) and obtaining the future risk. Specifically, based on the inspection data included in the information necessary for creating the risk curve, the thinned part is identified, and the progress of corrosion thinning of the identified part (from the beginning of use until the present) The degree of progress of the corrosion of the relevant part of the material is determined, and a prediction curve for the future risk is calculated based on the degree of progress. For example, if the tube thickness has decreased by 3 mm from the start of use to the present, the degree of progress is judged from the elapsed years and the amount of corrosion thinning (3 mm), and the future risk curve is assumed to decrease at the same pace in the future. Is estimated.

  Hereinafter, a specific method for calculating the risk will be described. Here, the risk is defined as the product of the damage frequency and the damage scale, and in determining the risk, the damage frequency and the damage scale are calculated. The damage frequency can be obtained from the distribution of the generated stress and the distribution of strength using a stress-strength model in reliability engineering as shown in FIG. 7, for example. Hereinafter, the case where the damage frequency when the pipe thickness of the buried pipe decreases is obtained from the stress-strength model of FIG. 7 will be described.

  The evaluation value X indicates a direct value used for distinguishing between damage and non-damage, and “stress” for evaluating internal pressure fracture corresponds to X. This is the case when the condition that the generated stress of the pipe due to internal pressure exceeds the allowable stress (strength) of the pipe with the reduced thickness is considered as damage, and the generated displacement exceeds the allowable displacement. In the case of the fracture condition, X is a displacement. The evaluation value X is a random variable. Here, a case where the former condition is used will be described as an example.

First, the damage frequency (damage probability) is obtained by equation (1) in FIG. From this equation (1), when the generated stress of the pipe due to internal pressure is x, the probability (f _L (x) × F _R (x)) that the allowable stress of the pipe whose thickness is reduced is less than or equal to x is generated. A value obtained by adding and changing the stress x from 0 to ∞ is obtained, and this is the damage frequency (damage probability). However, the function f (x) is a probability density function of the evaluation value X. The subscript L indicates the generated stress, and R indicates the allowable stress. Therefore, f _L (x) indicates the probability that the generated stress has a value x, and f _R (x) indicates the probability that the allowable stress has a value x. The function F (x) is a cumulative distribution function of the evaluation value X, corresponds to a value obtained by integrating f (x) from 0 to x, and the probability that the evaluation value X is less than or equal to the value x on the horizontal axis is Show.

  On the other hand, as shown in FIG. 8, the damage scale is as follows when each component (Element1, Element2,...) Is damaged. Repair and renewal costs Cequip, 2. 2. Compensation costs for human damage Cinjury; The operating loss cost Coutage associated with production or supply troubles is set, and is a value obtained by adding these 1 to 3.

  The risk is obtained by calculating the product of the damage frequency and the damage scale obtained as described above. Here, since the damage frequency increases with time, the risk also increases with time. In the example of the corrosion of the pipe, the corrosion progresses and the pipe thickness decreases, and since the stress generated in the portion increases as the pipe thickness decreases, the damage frequency also increases as a result.

Next, each process of steps S2 and S3 in FIG. 6 will be described. Steps S2 and S3 are processes performed by the optimization unit 2b.
First, the optimization means 2b, as the repair / update plan planning process of step S2, sets the risk upper limit value set and input from the input device 4 by the structure manager, and each structure of the structure calculated by the risk evaluation means 2a. Using the basic risk curve of the element and various information stored in the countermeasure construction method database 7, a repair / update plan to be performed for each component is made. The repair and renewal plan proposed here is a combination of the countermeasure method to be implemented for the component and the timing for implementing the countermeasure method during the lifetime of the component. It is planned that the risk of the component does not exceed the upper limit of risk by the end of its useful life. Here, a plurality of repair / update plans are drawn up.

FIG. 9 is a diagram showing a risk curve based on a plurality of repair / update plans.
Plan 1 implemented the Method A in X2 and this reduced the risk from R5 to R1. After that, the risk will rise again, but it is planned not to exceed the upper limit of risk during the useful life. In plan 2, the B construction method was implemented in X1 and the risk once decreased from R3 to R2, then increased again to R6, and this time the C construction method is implemented. As a result, the risk decreases from R6 to R4 and then increases again, but it is planned not to exceed the risk upper limit value in the service life.

A repair / update plan as shown in FIG. 9 is planned in the repair / update plan planning process. The planning procedure will be described below.
First, for a certain component, a countermeasure construction method and a timing for implementing the countermeasure construction method are arbitrarily set. The implementation time is set before the time when the risk of the component risk curve exceeds the upper limit of risk. As is clear from FIG. 9, two or more implementation times can be assigned to one component.

  The optimization means 2b re-establishes the risk curve after the repair / update method at the set execution time based on the basic risk curve calculated by the risk evaluation means 2a and the risk curve determination information in the countermeasure method database 7. Obtain (calculate (re-evaluate)). Then, it is checked whether the risk curve after the re-evaluation exceeds the upper limit of risk by the end of its useful life. Determine as one. In the optimization means 2b, the same processing as described above is performed while appropriately changing the combination of the repair / update method and the execution time, and a repair / update plan is drawn up.

  The above processing is an example in the case where the repair / updating method is performed once, but a repair / updating plan can be made in the same way even when setting a plurality of times. For example, when the implementation time is set twice, the above-described processing may be performed by regarding the risk curve after the first re-evaluation as a basic risk curve. A risk curve based on each of a plurality of repair / update plans prepared by such a procedure corresponds to that shown in FIG.

  Here, the risk assessment start risk level in Fig. 9 is the lower limit side of the setting range that is set as the implementation timing when the combination of the repair / update construction method and its implementation timing is appropriately changed in the repair / update plan planning process. By setting the risk level for starting the study of countermeasures, the risk of the constituent elements based on the basic risk curve from X0 when the risk level for starting the study of countermeasures is reached until the time when the risk upper limit is reached. It is considered as the implementation period of the countermeasure method. Therefore, when drafting a repair / renewal plan, the implementation period is considered from X0 onwards when it reaches the risk review start risk level, and is excluded from the period before X0. As a result, it is possible to shorten the time required for making a repair / update plan. The above is the process of step S2.

  Subsequently, in step S3, the cost is evaluated for each of the plurality of repair / update plans. As the cost, the cost stored in the countermeasure method database 7 is used. Any method can be adopted as the cost evaluation method for each user. Here, an investment judgment index such as NPV (Net Present Value) used in financial engineering is applied. Shall be evaluated. NPV refers to the present value of future cash flows that may be obtained from a business (increase / decrease in cash inflows and outflows of each year due to investment during the entire period from acquisition to disposal) at a discount rate. It is an index that measures the economic value of a business. Formula (2) shows a general formula for obtaining NPV.

  Here, Bi is the income at year i, Ci is the expenditure at year i, r is the interest rate, and m is the useful life.

  If this NPV is positive, it means that the business exceeds the return required by the investor and creates value, and if the business is negative, it is rejected.

  When the cost is evaluated by applying this NPV to this example, Bi = 0 is calculated in order to consider only the repair / update cost of the structure. For this reason, NPV becomes a negative value about all the plans. Among them, the one closer to 0 is judged to have a higher evaluation, and the plan that takes the value closest to 0 is adopted. In addition, Ci is a cost at the time of repair in this example, and the same numerical value is obtained in any year for the same construction method. The NPVs of the plan 1 and the plan 2 shown in FIG. 9 are obtained by the equations (3) and (4) in FIG. 9, respectively.

  The above-described repair / update plan and cost evaluation are performed for each component, and finally an optimal repair / update plan is determined for each component. As described above, in the repair / update plan, all the possible patterns are evaluated and the optimum one is found, and a general optimization algorithm (for example, a genetic algorithm) is used to search for an optimum plan. You may do it. The repair / update plan for each component determined as described above is displayed on the display device 3 as a maintenance management plan for the entire structure, and is notified to the structure manager. Note that printing may be performed by the printer 9 and output.

  As described above, according to the first embodiment, when maintaining a structure until its useful life, it is possible to devise an optimal maintenance management plan in consideration of economy while keeping the overall risk below the set risk upper limit value. Thereby, it becomes possible to maintain and manage the structure that achieves both low cost and secure safety for the entire structure.

  In addition, when preparing a repair / update plan, the repair / update timing can be set multiple times, so the range of combinations can be expanded and an optimal repair / update plan can be obtained from various combination patterns. . In addition, since the plan can be made with the second and third times as well as the repair and renewal of one time, it is possible to make a maintenance management plan from a long-term perspective. In other words, it is possible to determine a plan for bringing the structure to the end of its useful life at the first time.

  In this example, NPV is used for cost evaluation. However, the evaluation method is arbitrary. For example, it is possible to simply evaluate the total cost and adopt a plan with the lowest cost.

In addition, the risk upper limit value is determined according to the safety required for the structure, but it is not determined by the structure manager on its own. When it is necessary to make a decision based on the risk (for example, when the risk coverage is large), the importance is set in consideration of the importance of the facility and the social acceptance. For example, for the damage frequency, the general damage frequency (damage probability) 10 ^-4 shown in section 8 of API581 is used, and for the damage scale, the average damage scale of each component of the structure is calculated. Apply and multiply by these. In addition, in the UK industrial safety standards, the annual death probability of a socially acceptable individual is set in the range of 10 ⁻⁶ to 10 ⁻⁴ , and this value may be used as the damage frequency.

Embodiment 2. FIG.
In the first embodiment, the maintenance management plan is configured so that the optimization of the repair / update plan for each component also leads to the optimization of the maintenance management plan for the entire structure. That is, the structure maintenance management plan is composed of an optimal repair / update plan for each component. However, there are cases where the optimization of the repair / update plan for each component does not necessarily lead to the optimization of the maintenance management plan for the entire structure. In the second embodiment, such a case is also considered. This is related to the planning of the maintenance management plan for the structure.

  First, the case where the optimal repair / update plan for each component is not optimal when considered as a maintenance management plan for the entire structure will be described with reference to FIG.

FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram of the maintenance management plan for the entire structure. (A) shows a risk curve based on the repair / update plan of each component, and (b) shows the repair / update plan of (a). Shows a bar chart of costs based on.
The repair / update plan for each component in the maintenance management plan shown in FIG. 10 is a plan that is determined to have the highest cost evaluation. However, construction has been concentrated in FY2016, and large-scale capital investment is required in that year. In this case, it may be impossible to execute due to budgetary problems, and another plan is desired, and optimization for individual components does not lead to overall optimization.

  In view of such a case, the second embodiment compares the annual investment amount with the budget on the management side, and comprehensively determines the repair / update plan drafted for each component and determines the optimum. Get a maintenance plan.

The second embodiment is based on the first embodiment, and the following description will focus on parts that are different from the first embodiment.
In the second embodiment, first, a plurality of repair / update plan proposals formulated for each component in the repair / update plan planning process of the first embodiment are comprehensively determined, and the execution time of the repair / update method is determined. , Seek a combination of repair and renewal plans that are not concentrated in a certain year but are distributed and do not exceed the annual budget in each year Then, for each of the obtained combinations, the cost is evaluated using the cost stored in the countermeasure construction method database 7, and the combination of the repair / update plan with the highest evaluation result is determined as the maintenance plan for the structure. . The structure maintenance management plan determined as described above is as shown in FIG.

  Here, when seeking a combination of repair and renewal plans whose repair and renewal construction methods are not concentrated in a certain year and do not exceed the annual budget in each year, seek all possible combination patterns, In addition to examining those satisfying this condition, a general optimization algorithm (for example, a genetic algorithm) may be used to search for an optimum plan. Further, in the first embodiment, one repair / update plan with the highest cost evaluation is selected for each component, but instead of selecting one, several patterns are selected in the order of higher evaluation, Then, when considering all the components, it is possible to select a combination of repair and renewal plan plans whose costs are not concentrated at a certain time and are not dispersed and do not exceed the annual budget.

  According to the second embodiment, the same effect as the first embodiment can be obtained, and the overall structure repair / update plan is judged so that the cost is not concentrated at a specific time. It is possible to avoid a short-term cost burden and not to exceed the annual budget, so it is possible to formulate a reasonable maintenance plan that is practical.

  In the above description, a case has been described in which a repair / renewal plan and cost evaluation are performed independently for each component. However, for example, a plan for performing construction at the same time on a plurality of components that are close in position If there is a plan, or if there is a plan to carry out the same type of construction, consider the implementation timing of the countermeasure method for other components and the type of the countermeasure method, such as reducing the cost for evaluation. Then, cost evaluation may be performed. In this case, it is possible to evaluate the cost according to the actual operation, and in turn, a more rational maintenance management plan can be made.

It is a figure which shows the optimization apparatus of Embodiment 1 and Embodiment 2 of this invention. It is a figure which shows a risk curve. It is explanatory drawing of the damage in a buried pipe. It is a figure which shows the specific example of the repair and renewal construction method implemented with respect to a buried pipe. It is a figure which shows each information stored in a countermeasure construction method database. It is a flowchart which shows the operation | movement outline | summary of the optimization apparatus which concerns on Embodiment 1 of this invention. It is a figure which shows a stress intensity | strength model. It is explanatory drawing of damage scale. It is a figure which shows the cost evaluation result based on the risk curve and NPV of each plan plan based on the repair and renewal plan by which multiple planning was carried out. It is explanatory drawing of the maintenance management plan of the whole structure. It is a figure which shows the improvement plan plan of the maintenance management plan of FIG.

Explanation of symbols

1 Optimization device 2 CPU
2a Risk evaluation means 2b Optimization means 3 Display device 4 Input device 4a Mouse 4b Keyboard 5 Memory 6 Hard disk 7 Countermeasure method database 8 Drive device 8a CD-ROM
9 Printer

Claims (8)

A structure maintenance management plan optimization method for creating an optimal maintenance management plan for maintaining a structure,
A risk curve creation process for creating a basic risk curve from the present to the future for each component constituting the structure based on the deterioration prediction of the component,
For each component, a plurality of repair / update methods that can be performed on the component and the cost required for the repair / update method are stored in association with the countermeasure method database and stored in the countermeasure method database. Read various stored information, and based on the read various information , the created basic risk curve, and the preset risk upper limit value, the risk of the component is the lifetime of the component A repair / update plan planning step for each component to carry out a process of creating a plurality of patterns of repair / update plans to be performed on the component so as not to exceed the risk upper limit value during
Comprehensively judging multiple repair / renewal plans drafted for each of the above components, the timing of repair / renewal methods will not be concentrated in a certain year, and will not exceed the annual budget in each year For each of the requested combinations, the cost corresponding to the corresponding repair / update method is read from the countermeasure method database, and the cost is evaluated using the read cost. A maintenance plan decision process for determining the combination of repair / update plan with the highest result as a maintenance plan for the structure ,
A method for optimizing a structure maintenance management plan , wherein the processes of the risk curve creation process, the repair / update plan planning process, and the maintenance management plan determination process are executed by a computer .   The repair / update plan is a combination of the repair / update method and the implementation time of the method. In the repair / update plan planning process, the combination of the repair / update method and the execution time is changed as appropriate. The process of re-evaluating the risk curve of the element is repeated, and the plan for which the risk curve after the re-evaluation does not exceed the upper limit of the risk by the useful life of the component should be repaired and updated for the component The method for optimizing a structure maintenance management plan according to claim 1, wherein the plan is a plan.   3. The maintenance management plan optimization method for a structure according to claim 2, wherein a plurality of combinations of repair / update methods and execution times of the methods are set in the repair / update plan.   In the countermeasure construction method database, risk curve determination information for determining a risk curve after execution of the repair / update method is stored in association with each repair / update method, and in the repair / update plan planning step, The structure maintenance management plan according to claim 2 or 3, wherein the risk curve is re-evaluated based on the basic risk curve created by the risk evaluation means and the risk curve determination information. Optimization method.   The risk level for starting the study of countermeasures is set, and when the combination of the repair and renewal method and its implementation time is changed as appropriate in the repair and renewal planning process, the setting range set as the implementation time is set as the component risk. The method of optimizing a structure maintenance management plan according to any one of claims 2 to 4, characterized in that a period between the time when the countermeasure reaches a risk examination start risk level and the time when the risk upper limit value is reached.   6. The method of optimizing a structure maintenance management plan according to claim 1, wherein NPV (Net Present Value) is used for cost evaluation. The risk curve includes various inspection data indicating inspection results capable of determining the deterioration state of the structure, accuracy information indicating the accuracy of the inspection method, design information, statistics on damage to the structure, and various structural reliability of the structure. The structure maintenance management plan optimization method according to any one of claims 1 to 6 , wherein the structure maintenance management plan optimization method is created based on reliability data including characteristic data. The program which makes a computer perform the maintenance management plan optimization method of the structure in any one of Claim 1 thru | or 7 .

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