WO2021070277A1 - Information processing device, identifying method, and identifying program - Google Patents

Abstract

An information processing device (100) includes: an acquiring unit (120) for acquiring inspection result information (111) indicating a plurality of degrees of damage corresponding to a plurality of deformations of each of a plurality of parts of a civil engineering structure inspected in the past, and a plurality of in-service periods corresponding to the plurality of parts, and maintenance determination information (112) indicating whether maintenance is to be performed, in accordance with a combination of the respective degrees of damage of the plurality of deformations; a generating unit (140) for generating predicted information indicating the degree of damage in a future in-service period, for each of the plurality of deformations, using information for deriving the degree of damage in a future in-service period for each of the plurality of deformations, obtained on the basis of the inspection result information (111); and an identifying unit (150) for identifying the maintenance timing on the basis of the maintenance determination information (112) and the predicted information.

Description

Information processing device, specific method, and specific program

The present invention relates to an information processing device, a specific method, and a specific program.

When formulating a repair work plan for civil engineering structures, the necessity of repairs may be determined based on the inspection data obtained from the inspection of civil engineering structures.
For example, a civil engineering structure is a bridge. Here, Non-Patent Document 1 describes a procedure for inspecting bridges in Japan. By inspecting the civil engineering structure, the degree of damage of each of the multiple deformations to the multiple parts can be obtained. However, it is not possible to uniquely determine the necessity of repair based on the degree of damage. The reason is that a highly specialized manager needs to judge the necessity of repair based on conditions such as structural type, material, traffic volume, and deterioration rate. In addition, civil engineering structures are installed in various environments. Therefore, it is also difficult to determine the judgment procedure and the judgment criteria in advance. In this way, it is difficult to determine the necessity of repair.

Therefore, a system for determining the necessity of repair has been proposed (see Patent Document 1). The structure repair construction plan support system of Patent Document 1 constructs a discrimination boundary line using learning data created based on information including a teacher value indicating the necessity of repair. The structure repair construction plan support system calculates the necessity of repair work using the discrimination boundary line, and determines the necessity of repair based on the necessity of repair work.

JP-A-2007-140608

In the above system, the necessity of repair is determined by creating learning data. The determination of repair may be considered to specify the repair timing.
Here, the information including the teacher value indicating the necessity of repair is called teacher data. For example, teacher data for creating learning data is created by an administrator. Creating teacher data increases the burden on administrators. Therefore, it is desirable to specify the repair timing without creating teacher data. However, the problem is how to specify the repair timing without creating teacher data.

An object of the present invention is to specify the repair timing without creating teacher data.

An information processing device according to one aspect of the present invention is provided. The information processing device includes inspection result information indicating a plurality of damage degrees corresponding to each of a plurality of deformations of a plurality of parts of a civil engineering structure inspected in the past and a plurality of service periods corresponding to the plurality of parts. , An acquisition unit that acquires repair determination information indicating whether or not to repair according to the combination of damage degrees of each of the plurality of deformations, and the plurality of deformations obtained based on the inspection result information. Using the information for deriving the damage degree of the future service time in each of the above, the generation unit that generates the prediction information indicating the damage degree of the future service time in each of the plurality of deformations, and the repair determination information. It has a specific unit that specifies the repair timing based on the prediction information.

According to the present invention, the repair timing can be specified without creating teacher data.

It is a functional block diagram which shows the structure of the information processing apparatus of Embodiment 1. FIG. It is a figure which shows the structure of the hardware which the information processing apparatus of Embodiment 1 has. It is a figure which shows the example of the inspection result information of Embodiment 1. FIG. (A) and (B) are diagrams showing an example of repair determination information of the first embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example of the repair method information of Embodiment 1. It is a flowchart which shows the example of the process which the information processing apparatus of Embodiment 1 executes. (A) and (B) are diagrams for explaining a method of calculating a plurality of approximate functions of the first embodiment. It is a figure which shows the example in the case of correcting the approximate function of Embodiment 1. (A) and (B) are diagrams for explaining a method of specifying a correspondence relationship between the service life of the first embodiment and the future damage degree. It is a figure which shows the example of the prediction information of Embodiment 1. FIG. It is a figure which shows the example of the repair plan information of Embodiment 1. FIG. It is a functional block diagram which shows the structure of the information processing apparatus of Embodiment 2. It is a figure which shows the example of the repair determination information of Embodiment 2. It is a figure which shows the existence probability matrix N (x) of Embodiment 2. It is a figure which shows the transition probability matrix M of Embodiment 2. It is a figure which shows the transition direction of Embodiment 2. It is a figure which shows the transition probability matrix M in consideration of the transition direction of Embodiment 2. It is a flowchart which shows the example of the process which the information processing apparatus of Embodiment 2 executes. It is a figure which shows the example of the aggregation method of Embodiment 2. It is a figure which shows the prediction information of Embodiment 2. It is a functional block diagram which shows the structure of the information processing apparatus of Embodiment 3. It is a figure which shows the example of the plan information of Embodiment 3. It is a flowchart which shows the example of the process which the information processing apparatus of Embodiment 3 executes.

Hereinafter, embodiments will be described with reference to the drawings. The following embodiments are merely examples, and various modifications can be made within the scope of the present invention. Further, in the following description, the civil engineering structure will be a concrete bridge. However, the civil engineering structure may be a steel bridge, a tunnel, a pavement surface, or the like.

Embodiment 1.
FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the information processing apparatus according to the first embodiment. The information processing device 100 is a device that executes a specific method. The information processing device 100 includes a storage unit 110, an acquisition unit 120, a calculation unit 130, a generation unit 140, a specific unit 150, and an output unit 160.

Here, the hardware included in the information processing apparatus 100 will be described.
FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a hardware configuration of the information processing apparatus according to the first embodiment. The information processing device 100 includes a processor 101, a volatile storage device 102, and a non-volatile storage device 103.

The processor 101 controls the entire information processing device 100. For example, the processor 101 is a CPU (Central Processing Unit), an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array), or the like. The processor 101 may be a multiprocessor. The information processing apparatus 100 may be realized by a processing circuit, or may be realized by software, firmware, or a combination thereof. The processing circuit may be a single circuit or a composite circuit.

The volatile storage device 102 is the main storage device of the information processing device 100. For example, the volatile storage device 102 is a RAM (Random Access Memory). The non-volatile storage device 103 is an auxiliary storage device of the information processing device 100. For example, the non-volatile storage device 103 is an HDD (Hard Disk Drive) or an SSD (Solid State Drive).

Returning to FIG. 1, the functional block included in the information processing apparatus 100 will be described.
The storage unit 110 may be realized as a storage area reserved in the volatile storage device 102 or the non-volatile storage device 103.
A part or all of the acquisition unit 120, the calculation unit 130, the generation unit 140, the specific unit 150, and the output unit 160 may be realized by the processor 101. A part or all of the acquisition unit 120, the calculation unit 130, the generation unit 140, the specific unit 150, and the output unit 160 may be realized as modules of a program executed by the processor 101. For example, the program executed by the processor 101 is also referred to as a specific program. For example, a specific program is recorded on a recording medium.

The storage unit 110 stores the inspection result information 111, the repair determination information 112, and the repair method information 113. The inspection result information 111 may be referred to as an inspection result database. The repair determination information 112 may be referred to as a repair determination database. The repair method information 113 may be referred to as a repair method database. First, the inspection result information 111 will be described.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of inspection result information of the first embodiment. The inspection result information 111 indicates a plurality of damage degrees corresponding to a plurality of deformations of each of a plurality of parts of the civil engineering structure inspected in the past and a plurality of service periods corresponding to the plurality of parts. Further, the inspection result information 111 indicates a plurality of damage degrees corresponding to a plurality of deformations of each of a plurality of parts of the plurality of civil engineering structures inspected in the past and a plurality of service periods corresponding to the plurality of parts. You may.

Specifically, the inspection result information 111 has items of the year of installation, the year of inspection, the number of years of service, the control number, the part, and the degree of damage for each deformation.
The erection year item indicates the year of erection. The inspection year item indicates the year of inspection. The item of service years indicates the period from the year of erection to the year of inspection, which is the time when the inspection was carried out. The item of the number of years of service may be changed to the item of the number of months of service or the item of the number of days of service. Here, the number of years of service, the number of months of service, or the number of days of service is also referred to as the service period.

The control number item indicates the identifier of the inspected part. Further, the item of the control number may include an identifier of the span. The part item indicates the name of the inspected part.
The item of the degree of damage for each deformation shows the inspection result. FIG. 3 shows cracks and exposed rebars as an example of deformation. For example, the deformation may be swelling, corrosion, or the like. The degree of damage is represented by the degree of damage described on page 2 of Appendix-1 of Non-Patent Document 1. That is, the degree of damage is represented by five stages from a to e. The method of expressing the degree of damage is not limited to this. For example, the degree of damage may be expressed numerically. Further, for example, the degree of damage may be classified into the degree of damage obtained by using various sensors, camera images, and image processing techniques.

For example, the inspection result information 111 indicates that the part "floor slab" corresponding to the control number "1001-1" was inspected in 2015. The inspection result information 111 indicates that the crack damage degree is b and the peeled reinforcing bar exposure damage degree is a as the inspection result.

In addition, the inspection result may include specification data. The specification data includes design information of civil engineering structures, environmental information, and the like. For example, the specification data are bridge length, width, material, structural type, salt damage environment classification, intersection, traffic volume, and the like. Further, the specification data does not have to be included in the inspection result. That is, the specification data may be stored in the storage unit 110 as independent data. In addition, the specification data may have a correspondence relationship with the civil engineering structure. Further, the information processing device 100 has a function of searching for information in the inspection result information 111 using the specification data as a search condition, and a function of extracting information matching the search condition from the inspection result information 111. You may.

Next, the repair determination information 112 will be described.
4 (A) and 4 (B) are diagrams showing an example of repair determination information according to the first embodiment. The repair determination information 112 indicates whether or not to repair according to the combination of the damage degrees of each of the plurality of deformations. The repair determination information 112 may be expressed as follows. The repair determination information 112 indicates whether or not to repair the target portion according to the combination of the damage degrees of each of the plurality of deformations. Specifically, the repair determination information 112 in FIG. 4A shows the correspondence between the degree of crack damage and the degree of exposed rebar exposure damage. That is, the repair determination information 112 in FIG. 4 shows the correspondence between the damage degrees of the two deformations. The repair determination information 112 may indicate a correspondence relationship between the damage degrees of three or more deformations.

The repair determination information 112 indicates whether or not to repair according to the combination of the degree of damage of each of the two deformations. For example, when the crack damage degree is a and the peeled reinforcing bar exposure damage degree is c, the repair determination information 112 indicates that repair is unnecessary. Further, for example, when the crack damage degree is e and the peeled reinforcing bar exposure damage degree is a, the repair determination information 112 indicates that repair is necessary.

The information processing device 100 can determine the necessity of repair by using the repair determination information 112. That is, the information processing device 100 can determine the necessity of repair based on the correspondence relationship between the damage degrees of the two deformations.
The repair determination information 112 is created in advance. For example, a highly specialized manager uses a computer to create repair determination information 112. Further, for example, the manager creates the repair determination information 112 in consideration of the knowledge of the deterioration process based on the type, structural type, material characteristics, etc. of the civil engineering structure, and the purpose of creating the repair plan.

Here, the repair determination information 112 may be referred to as a repair determination matrix. Therefore, the repair determination information 112 may be considered to include a plurality of cells.
Repair judgment information may exist for each civil engineering structure. For example, when the civil engineering structure is a steel bridge, the repair determination information indicates the correspondence between the degree of damage of deterioration and the degree of damage of corrosion. Further, for example, when the civil engineering structure is a concrete wall surface, the repair determination information indicates the correspondence between the degree of damage of cracks and the degree of damage of water leakage.

In the repair judgment information for each civil engineering structure, the necessity of repair may differ depending on the conditions such as the structural type of the civil engineering structure, the materials used, and the environment in which it is used. For example, FIG. 4B shows repair determination information 112a of an overpass, which may cause damage to a third party due to the fall of a concrete piece due to the exposure of the peeled reinforcing bar. The repair determination information 112a indicates that even if the degree of exposure damage to the peeled reinforcing bar is small, the repair is performed if cracks are present.

Next, the repair method information 113 will be described.
FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of repair method information of the first embodiment. The repair method information 113 indicates a repair method at the repair timing. Specifically, the repair method information 113 in FIG. 5 shows the correspondence between the degree of crack damage and the degree of exposed rebar exposure damage. The repair method information 113 may be referred to as a repair method matrix. Therefore, the repair method information 113 may be considered to include a plurality of cells.

For example, when the crack damage degree is a and the peeled reinforcing bar exposure damage degree is c, the repair judgment information 112 indicates that repair is unnecessary, so the repair method information 113 does not indicate the repair method. Further, for example, when the crack damage degree is e and the peeled reinforcing bar exposure damage degree is a, the crack has progressed, so that the repair method information 113 indicates the crack injection method. Further, for example, when the crack damage degree is e and the peeled reinforcing bar exposure damage degree is e, the crack and the peeled reinforcing bar are exposed, so that the repair method information 113 indicates replacement.

Each repair method indicated by the repair method information 113 may be associated with information such as a repair unit price, a repair effect, and a required period. For example, for the repair effect associated with the repair method corresponding to the crack damage degree e and the peeled reinforcing bar exposed damage degree a, the crack injection method is carried out so that the crack damage degree is a and the peeled reinforcing bar exposed damage is exposed. It is shown that the degree returns to the state of a.
Further, each cell indicated by the repair method information 113 may indicate a plurality of methods having different effects. The information processing apparatus 100 may select one repair method from a plurality of methods.

The acquisition unit 120 acquires the inspection result information 111, the repair determination information 112, and the repair method information 113. For example, the acquisition unit 120 acquires the inspection result information 111, the repair determination information 112, and the repair method information 113 from the storage unit 110. Here, for example, the inspection result information 111, the repair determination information 112, and the repair method information 113 may be stored in an external device such as a cloud server. When the inspection result information 111, the repair judgment information 112, and the repair method information 113 are stored in the external device, the acquisition unit 120 obtains the inspection result information 111, the repair judgment information 112, and the repair method information 113 from the external device. get.

The function of the calculation unit 130 will be described later.
The generation unit 140 generates prediction information by using the information obtained based on the inspection result information 111 for deriving the degree of damage in the future service period in each of the plurality of deformations. In addition, the prediction information indicates the degree of damage in the future service period in each of the plurality of deformations.

The identification unit 150 specifies the repair timing based on the repair determination information 112 and the prediction information. Further, the specifying unit 150 specifies the repair method at the repair timing based on the repair method information 113.
The output unit 160 outputs information indicating the repair timing.

Next, the process executed by the information processing apparatus 100 will be described with reference to a flowchart.
FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing an example of processing executed by the information processing apparatus of the first embodiment.
(Step S11) The acquisition unit 120 acquires the inspection result information 111 from the storage unit 110.
(Step S12) The calculation unit 130 calculates a plurality of approximation functions based on the plurality of service years included in the inspection result information 111 and the plurality of damage degrees corresponding to the plurality of deformations. Here, the plurality of approximation functions are also referred to as deterioration models. Further, the plurality of approximation functions may be considered as information for deriving the degree of damage in the future service period in each of the plurality of deformations obtained based on the inspection result information 111. Specifically, a method of calculating a plurality of approximate functions will be described.

7 (A) and 7 (B) are diagrams for explaining a method of calculating a plurality of approximate functions of the first embodiment. The vertical axis of FIG. 7A shows the degree of crack damage. For convenience of explanation, the vertical axis of FIG. 7A shows a to e. However, the vertical axis of FIG. 7A may be transformed into 1 to 5. The horizontal axis of FIG. 7A shows the number of years of service.

FIG. 7A shows the correspondence between the service life and the degree of crack damage included in the inspection result information 111. That is, each point in FIG. 7A corresponds to each record of the inspection result information 111. The calculation unit 130 calculates an approximation function that approximates each point. The calculation unit 130 may calculate the approximate function by using a known method. For example, the calculation unit 130 calculates a linear approximation straight line by least squares approximation.

The vertical axis of FIG. 7B shows the degree of exposed damage to the peeled reinforcing bar. For convenience of explanation, the vertical axis of FIG. 7B shows a to e. However, the vertical axis of FIG. 7B may be transformed into 1 to 5. The horizontal axis of FIG. 7B shows the number of years of service. FIG. 7B shows the correspondence between the service life included in the inspection result information 111 and the degree of exposure damage of the peeled reinforcing bar. That is, each point in FIG. 7B corresponds to each record of the inspection result information 111. The calculation unit 130 calculates an approximation function that approximates each point.

In this way, the calculation unit 130 calculates the equation (1) based on the service life and the degree of crack damage included in the inspection result information 111. In addition, x indicates the number of years of service. y1 indicates the degree of crack damage.

Further, the calculation unit 130 calculates the formula (2) based on the service life and the degree of exposure damage of the peeled reinforcing bar included in the inspection result information 111. In addition, y2 indicates the degree of exposure damage of the peeled reinforcing bar.

Further, the calculation unit 130 may correct the approximation function so that the approximation function exists on the point.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example in the case of correcting the approximate function of the first embodiment. The calculation unit 130 corrects at least one of the slope and the intercept of the equation (1) so that the equation (1) exists on the point.

Before executing the next process, the acquisition unit 120 may acquire information indicating the civil engineering structure that is the target of the following process. For example, the acquisition unit 120 acquires the information by a user input operation. Further, the information processing apparatus 100 may execute the following processes in the order of the control numbers included in the inspection result information 111. In the following description, a case where processing is performed in the order of control numbers will be described.

(Step S13) The generation unit 140 generates prediction information based on a plurality of approximation functions. The method of generating the prediction information will be specifically described.
First, the generation unit 140 uses a plurality of approximate functions to specify the correspondence between the service life and the future damage degree.

9 (A) and 9 (B) are diagrams for explaining a method of specifying the correspondence relationship between the service life of the first embodiment and the future damage degree. FIG. 9A is a diagram for explaining a method of specifying a correspondence relationship between the service life and the degree of crack damage in the future. The generation unit 140 uses the formula (1) to specify the correspondence between the service life and the future degree of crack damage.

FIG. 9B is a diagram for explaining a method of specifying the correspondence relationship between the service life and the degree of exposure damage of the peeled reinforcing bar in the future. The generation unit 140 uses the formula (2) to specify the correspondence between the service life and the degree of exposure damage to the peeled reinforcing bar in the future.

As shown by the dotted lines in FIGS. 9A and 9B, the generation unit 140 may round up, round off, or the like to determine the damage degree classification obtained by the approximate straight line into one classification. For example, in the case of FIG. 9B, the service life “25” to “40” is determined as the damage degree a.

In this way, the generation unit 140 uses a plurality of approximate functions to specify the correspondence between the service life and the degree of damage in the future. The generation unit 140 generates prediction information using the correspondence between the service life and the future damage degree.

FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of the prediction information of the first embodiment. The prediction information 200 has items of control number, year, service life, crack damage degree, and peeled reinforcing bar exposure damage degree. In addition, the item of the number of years of service may be expressed as the future service period.
The prediction information 200 indicates the future damage degree of the part of the control number “1001-1”. Prediction information 200 shows the degree of damage every 5 years. However, the prediction information 200 may indicate the degree of damage for each year. For the service life of the forecast information 200, the current year (2015 in FIG. 10) is expressed as 0 year, and the degree of damage from the final year of the plan (for example, 2070) minus the current year is shown. May be good.

(Step S14) The specifying unit 150 specifies the repair timing based on the repair determination information 112 and the prediction information 200. For example, the specific unit 150 identifies that 2035 is the repair timing based on the repair determination information 112 and the prediction information 200.

(Step S15) The specifying unit 150 specifies the repair method based on the degree of crack damage and the degree of exposed rebar exposed damage at the repair timing and the repair method information 113. For example, the specific portion 150 specifies the cross-section repair (small) based on the crack damage degree “c” and the peeled reinforcing bar exposure damage degree “c” in 2035 and the repair method information 113.
In this way, the information processing apparatus 100 can specify the repair method at the repair timing by using the repair method information 113.
(Step S16) The generation unit 140 generates repair plan information based on the information specified by the specific unit 150. Here, the repair plan information will be illustrated.

FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of repair plan information of the first embodiment. The repair plan information 210 has items of control number, repair implementation year, part, repair method, repair cost, crack damage degree at the time of repair, and peeling reinforcing bar exposure damage degree at the time of repair. The repair plan information 210 in FIG. 11 indicates that the repair timing of the portion of the control number “1001-1” is 2035.

When information such as the repair unit price, the repair effect, and the required period is associated with each repair method indicated by the repair method information 113, the generation unit 140 may include the repair cost, the required period, etc. in the repair plan information 210. Good. In other words, when the repair method of the repair timing indicated by the repair method information 113 is associated with the information for calculating the repair cost, the generation unit 140 may include the repair cost and the like in the repair plan information 210. .. Moreover, the cost is not limited to the repair cost. For example, when the service is continued in a damaged state, costs for countermeasures, costs for compensation for damages, and the like may be incurred based on the magnitude and probability of damages that may occur due to the damages.

Explain how to calculate the repair cost. The calculation unit 130 calculates the repair cost based on the information for calculating the repair cost. Specifically, the calculation unit 130 calculates the repair cost using the equation (3).

For example, the repair unit price is the cost required for repair per square meter. The quantity is the number of items to be repaired per square meter. The repair unit price may include expenses such as scaffolding. The quantity may be an area (= width of civil engineering structure x length). When information indicating the ratio of damage to the area of the civil engineering structure is stored in the storage unit 110, the generation unit 140 may multiply the quantity by the ratio.

(Step S17) The output unit 160 outputs the repair plan information 210. For example, the output unit 160 outputs the repair plan information 210 to the display. Further, for example, the output unit 160 outputs the repair plan information 210 to an external device that can be connected to the information processing device 100. Further, for example, the output unit 160 outputs the repair plan information 210 to the paper medium via the printing device.
In this way, the information processing device 100 can notify the user of the repair timing by outputting the repair plan information 210. Further, when the repair cost is calculated, the information processing apparatus 100 can also inform the user of the repair cost.

As described above, according to the first embodiment, the information processing apparatus 100 can specify the repair timing without creating the teacher data.
In addition, the information processing apparatus 100 may specify the timing and repair method for repairing future re-deterioration after the repair is performed by using the above technique. Further, when the deterioration rate before repair and the deterioration rate after repair are different, the information processing apparatus 100 may adjust the parameters of the deterioration model.

Embodiment 2.
Next, the second embodiment will be described. Matters different from the first embodiment will be mainly described. Then, the description of the matters common to the second embodiment will be omitted. The second embodiment refers to FIGS. 1 to 5.
FIG. 12 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the information processing apparatus according to the second embodiment. The configuration of FIG. 12, which is the same as the configuration shown in FIG. 1, has the same reference numerals as those shown in FIG. The information processing device 100a has a calculation unit 130a, a generation unit 140a, and a specific unit 150a. The functions of the calculation unit 130a, the generation unit 140a, and the specific unit 150a will be described later.

FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of repair determination information according to the second embodiment. The repair determination information 112 of the second embodiment may be referred to as a deformation matrix. The repair determination information 112 may be considered to include a plurality of cells. In FIG. 13, the content indicated by the repair determination information 112 is omitted.
Here, for example, the cell showing the correspondence relationship between the degree of crack damage and the degree of exposed rebar exposed damage is expressed as (a, a).

Next, the existence probability will be explained. The existence probability is the probability that it exists in a certain cell after x years. For example, the existence probability existing in (c, c) after x + 1 years is expressed using the equation (4).

P indicates the existence probability. “Cc” of P (cc, x + 1) is a simplification of (c, c). Further, "cc" of P (cc, x + 1) indicates a state. “X + 1” of P (cc, x + 1) indicates the year. So, for example, P (cc, x + 1) indicates the probability of existence in (c, c) after x + 1 years. Further, for example, P (ca, x) indicates the existence probability of existence in (c, a) after x years.

P indicates the transition probability. The transition probability is the probability of transitioning to an adjacent cell. “Cc” of p (cc, dc) indicates the transition source state. “Dc” of p (cc, dc) indicates the transition destination state. Therefore, for example, p (cc, dc) indicates the probability of transition from (c, c) to (d, c). Further, for example, p (cc, ce) indicates the probability of transition from (c, c) to (c, e).

Next, the existence probability matrix N (x), which is a set of existence probabilities in x years of each cell of the deformation matrix, will be described. The existence probability matrix N (x) indicates the probability of being in each state of a plurality of combinations of damage degrees of each of the plurality of variants in the future service period. The existence probability matrix N (x) may be expressed as follows. The existence probability matrix N (x) indicates the probability that each state of a plurality of combinations of damage degrees of each of a plurality of deformations does not change without transition during the future service period. The existence probability matrix N (x) is specifically shown.

FIG. 14 is a diagram showing the existence probability matrix N (x) of the second embodiment.
Next, the transition probability matrix M, which is a set of transition probabilities of the states corresponding to each cell of the deformation matrix, will be described. The transition probability matrix M indicates the probability that each state of a plurality of combinations of damage degrees of each of a plurality of variants will transition to the state of another combination during the future service period. The transition probability matrix M is specifically shown.

FIG. 15 is a diagram showing a transition probability matrix M of the second embodiment.
The existence probability matrix N (x + 1) for x + 1 years is expressed by the equation (5) using the existence probability matrix N (x) and the transition probability matrix M.

Equation (6) can be obtained by modifying equation (5). Equation (6) may be expressed as a deterioration model.

In this way, by using the initial values of the transition probability matrix and the existence probability matrix, the existence probability matrix of an arbitrary number of years of service can be calculated.
Here, in general, damage does not heal spontaneously unless it is repaired. Therefore, the transition direction in the deformation matrix is fixed.

FIG. 16 is a diagram showing a transition direction of the second embodiment. As shown in FIG. 16, the transition direction is fixed. Therefore, the transition probability matrix M in which the transition direction shown in FIG. 16 is taken into consideration is shown.

FIG. 17 is a diagram showing a transition probability matrix M in which the transition direction of the second embodiment is taken into consideration. For example, in the case of p (ac, aa) in FIG. 15, the state does not transition from (a, c) to (a, a). Therefore, p (ac, aa) in FIG. 17 becomes 0.
In this way, the transition direction is taken into consideration in the transition probability matrix M. Therefore, the transition probability matrix M can be expressed as follows. In the transition probability matrix M, the direction in which each state of the plurality of combinations of the respective damage degrees of the plurality of deformations transitions is determined, and each state of the plurality of combinations becomes another combination in the future service period. Shows the probability of transitioning to the state of.

It should be noted that the deterioration model may be assumed to maintain Markov property, which is a property that future behavior is determined only by the current value and has nothing to do with past behavior. That is, the deterioration model can use the transition probability matrix M regardless of the number of years of service.

Here, the information of the existence probability matrix N (x) and the information of the transition probability matrix M are stored in the storage unit 110. Further, the information of the existence probability matrix N (x) and the information of the transition probability matrix M may be stored in an external device such as a cloud server.

Next, the process executed by the information processing apparatus 100a will be described with reference to a flowchart.
FIG. 18 is a flowchart showing an example of processing executed by the information processing apparatus of the second embodiment.
(Step S21) The acquisition unit 120 acquires the inspection result information 111 from the storage unit 110. Further, the acquisition unit 120 acquires the information of the existence probability matrix N (x) and the information of the transition probability matrix M from the storage unit 110. Here, the transition probability matrix M is also referred to as a first transition probability matrix.
(Step S22) The calculation unit 130a totals the combination of the crack damage degree and the peeled reinforcing bar exposure damage degree in a predetermined period unit. An example of aggregation is shown.

FIG. 19 is a diagram showing an example of the aggregation method of the second embodiment. The tabulation table 300 shows the relationship between the combination of the crack damage degree and the peeled reinforcing bar exposure damage degree and the period unit. The period unit in FIG. 19 is 5 years. The reason is that it is inspected every five years. The period unit is not limited to 5 years.
The calculation unit 130a calculates the ratio based on the number of cases so that the total in the horizontal direction becomes 1 for each period unit. For example, when the service life is 0 to 5 years, the ratio of the number of combinations of the crack damage degree “a” and the peeled reinforcing bar exposure damage degree “a” is 0.8.

The calculation unit 130a may increase the number of records of the inspection result information 111 and total the combination of the crack damage degree and the peeled reinforcing bar exposure damage degree in units of periods. For example, the calculation unit 130a duplicates 10 records of the control number “1001-1”. The calculation unit 130a executes the aggregation process including the duplicated record.

(Step S23) The calculation unit 130a calculates the transition probability matrix M in which the transition probability matrix M is adjusted based on the inspection result information 111. Specifically, the calculation unit 130a uses the transition probability matrix M of the equation (6) so that the ratio value calculated in step S22 and the value of the existence probability matrix N (x) of the equation (6) approximate each other. Adjust the value of. The transition probability matrix M is the transition probability matrix M of FIG.

For example, the calculation unit 130a can adjust the value of the transition probability matrix M by using the matrix operation and the calculation library. Further, for example, the calculation unit 130a can adjust the value of the transition probability matrix M by minimizing the sum of the square errors by using the least squares method under the constraint condition. For example, the constraint condition is "each transition probability is 0 or more and 1 or less, the transition probability in the direction in which the transition is not allowed is 0, and the total of the probability of transition from a certain cell and the probability of remaining is 1". Is.

Further, the value of the transition probability matrix M may be adjusted by the solver, which is a function provided by Excel of Microsoft (registered trademark). For example, a solver is used to adjust the value of the transition probability matrix M so that the least squares error is minimized.

Here, the adjusted transition probability matrix M is also referred to as a second transition probability matrix. Further, the adjusted transition probability matrix M may be considered as information for deriving the degree of damage in the future service period in each of the plurality of deformations obtained based on the inspection result information 111.

(Step S24) The calculation unit 130a calculates the existence probability for each service period using the formula (7). Note that M in Eq. (7) is the transition probability matrix adjusted in step S23. Further, x (0) indicates the current year. That is, x (0) indicates the year in which the process of step S24 is executed. Therefore, N (x (0)) indicates the current existence probability matrix.

(Step S25) The generation unit 140a generates prediction information. Forecast information is illustrated.
FIG. 20 is a diagram showing the prediction information of the second embodiment. The prediction information 310 is information indicating the calculation result of the calculation unit 130a. As for the number of years of service, the current year may be expressed as 0 year, and the degree of damage from 0 year to the year obtained by subtracting the current year from the final year of the plan may be indicated.
In this way, the generation unit 140a generates the prediction information 310 based on the adjusted transition probability matrix M and the existence probability matrix N (x).

(Step S26) The identification unit 150a specifies the state for each service period by using the prediction information 310. For example, the specific unit 150a specifies the state of the maximum value. For example, the specific unit 150a specifies the maximum value (d, c) in the service life of “35 years”.
Further, when the maximum value is equal to or greater than the threshold value, the specific unit 150a may specify the state of the maximum value. Further, the identification unit 150a may specify the state based on the average value or the median value of the existence probability matrix.

(Step S27) The specifying unit 150a specifies the repair timing based on the repair determination information 112 and the prediction information 310. For example, the specific unit 150a specifies that the service life "35 years" is the repair timing based on the repair determination information 112 and the prediction information 310.
(Step S28) The specifying portion 150a specifies the repair method based on the degree of crack damage and the degree of exposed rebar exposed damage at the repair timing and the repair method information 113.

(Step S29) The generation unit 140a generates the repair plan information 210 based on the information specified by the specific unit 150a.
(Step S30) The output unit 160 outputs the repair plan information 210.

Here, for example, the administrator may create the repair determination information 112 and the repair method information 113 by using a computer with reference to the prediction information 310. For example, in an environment where the transition probability in the right direction is large and the damage caused by the exposure of the peeled reinforcing bar must be suppressed, the manager creates the repair determination information 112 that requires repair of a minor damage stage. Further, for example, the manager creates repair determination information 112 for suppressing the rapid progress of the peeled reinforcing bar exposure with reference to the prediction information 310. In addition, for example, there are civil engineering structures in which the rate of deterioration is significantly increased once damage occurs. The manager may create the repair determination information 112 corresponding to the civil engineering structure with reference to the prediction information 310.

Further, for example, the output unit 160 may output that the fatigue of concrete is large when the downward transition probability is large. Further, for example, the output unit 160 may output that the influence of the alkaline aggregate reaction is large when the transition probability in the right direction is large.

As described above, according to the second embodiment, the information processing apparatus 100a can specify the repair timing without creating the teacher data.
The transition direction is taken into consideration in the transition probability matrix M. By using the transition probability matrix M, the information processing device 100a can generate repair plan information 210 having a high effect of preventive maintenance.

Further, the calculation unit 130a may multiply the value of each cell of the existence probability matrix N (x) by the number of civil engineering structures. Then, the output unit 160 may output the number of structures existing in each cell as a prediction result of the deterioration state. As a result, the user can recognize the number of civil engineering structures that need to be repaired at an arbitrary service life by referring to the prediction result of the deterioration state.

Further, the generation unit 140a includes the repair cost obtained by multiplying the average value of the widths and lengths of the plurality of civil engineering structures by the repair unit price associated with the repair method information 113 in the repair plan information 210. May be good.

Embodiment 3.
Next, the third embodiment will be described. Matters different from the first embodiment will be mainly described. Then, the description of the matters common to the third embodiment will be omitted. The third embodiment refers to FIGS. 1 to 20.
FIG. 21 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the information processing apparatus according to the third embodiment. The configuration of FIG. 21, which is the same as the configuration shown in FIG. 1, has the same reference numerals as those shown in FIG. The information processing device 100a has a generation unit 140b, a specific unit 150b, and an output unit 160b. The functions of the generation unit 140b, the specific unit 150b, and the output unit 160b will be described later.

In the first and second embodiments, the repair timing was specified. In the third embodiment, the generation unit 140b generates planning information indicating the plan up to the end year of the planning period regardless of the presence or absence of repair. Therefore, the specific unit 150b specifies whether or not to repair at a future service period within a predetermined period based on the repair determination information 112 and the prediction information. The predetermined period is the above-mentioned planned period. In addition, the information indicating whether or not to repair during the future service period within the period is the plan information. Illustrate planning information.

FIG. 22 is a diagram showing an example of the plan information of the third embodiment. The plan information 400 may be referred to as a repair plan primary list. The plan information 400 of FIG. 22 shows the plan of the control number “1001-1”.
For example, the generation unit 140b generates the plan information 400 based on the prediction information 200, the repair determination information 112, and the repair method information 113. Further, for example, the generation unit 140b generates the plan information 400 based on the prediction information 310, the repair determination information 112, and the repair method information 113.

Next, the process executed by the information processing apparatus 100b will be described with reference to a flowchart.
FIG. 23 is a flowchart showing an example of processing executed by the information processing apparatus according to the third embodiment.
(Step S31) The generation unit 140b generates planning information of a plurality of civil engineering structures. The generation method is as described above. The generation unit 140b stores the planning information of a plurality of civil engineering structures in the storage unit 110.

(Step S32) The specific unit 150b acquires the planning information of one civil engineering structure. The identification unit 150b uses the planning information to specify the repair timing when a predetermined constraint condition is satisfied and the life cycle cost in the planning period is minimized by the objective function. For example, constraints include a budget limit per year, an acceptable damage limit, and so on. Further, as the arithmetic algorithm for identification, the identification unit 150b may use an optimization method such as a steepest descent method or a genetic algorithm.
Similarly, the specific portion 150b specifies the repair timing for all the civil engineering structures.
(Step S33) The output unit 160b outputs the repair timing of all the civil engineering structures.

According to the third embodiment, the information processing apparatus 100b can specify the repair timing in consideration of the constraint conditions. For example, in Embodiment 1, 2035 was specified as the repair timing. However, in the third embodiment, the year after 2035 is specified as the repair timing by considering the constraint condition.

The features in each of the embodiments described above can be combined with each other as appropriate.

100, 100a, 100b information processing device, 101 processor, 102 volatile storage device, 103 non-volatile storage device, 110 storage unit, 111 inspection result information, 112, 112a repair judgment information, 113 repair method information, 120 acquisition unit, 130 , 130a calculation unit, 140, 140a, 140b generation unit, 150, 150a, 150b specific unit, 160, 160b output unit, 200 forecast information, 210 repair plan information, 300 summary table, 310 forecast information, 400 plan information.

Claims (10)

1. Inspection result information indicating a plurality of damage degrees corresponding to a plurality of deformations of each of a plurality of parts of a civil engineering structure inspected in the past and a plurality of service periods corresponding to the plurality of parts, and the plurality of changes. An acquisition unit that acquires repair judgment information indicating whether or not to repair according to the combination of the degree of damage of each shape, and an acquisition unit.
   Using the information obtained based on the inspection result information for deriving the degree of damage in the future service period in each of the plurality of variants, the degree of damage in the future service period in each of the plurality of variants. A generator that generates forecast information indicating
   A specific unit that specifies the repair timing based on the repair determination information and the prediction information, and
   Information processing device with.
2. It further has a calculation unit that calculates a plurality of approximate functions based on the plurality of service periods and the plurality of damage degrees.
   The generation unit generates the prediction information based on the plurality of approximation functions.
   The information processing device according to claim 1.
3. It also has a calculation unit
   The acquisition unit
   Information of the existence probability matrix showing the probability of each state of the plurality of combinations in the future service period, and the probability that each state of the plurality of combinations transitions to the state of another combination in the future service period. Obtain the information of the first transition probability matrix and
   The calculation unit
   Based on the inspection result information, a second transition probability matrix adjusted by the first transition probability matrix is calculated.
   The generator
   The prediction information is generated based on the second transition probability matrix and the existence probability matrix.
   The information processing device according to claim 1.
4. In the first transition probability matrix, the direction in which each state of the plurality of combinations transitions is defined, and each state of the plurality of combinations transitions to the state of another combination in the future service period. Show the probability,
   The information processing device according to claim 3.
5. The specific part is
   Based on the repair determination information and the prediction information, it is specified whether or not to repair at a future service period within a predetermined period.
   The repair timing is specified when the life cycle cost in the period is minimized by the objective function while satisfying the predetermined constraints by using the information indicating whether or not the repair is performed in the future service period within the period. To do
   The information processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 4.
6. The acquisition unit acquires repair method information indicating the repair method at the repair timing, and obtains the repair method information.
   The specific unit specifies the repair method based on the repair method information.
   The information processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
7. The acquisition unit acquires repair method information indicating the repair method at the repair timing, and obtains the repair method information.
   Information for calculating the repair cost is associated with the repair method at the repair timing indicated by the repair method information.
   It further has a calculation unit for calculating the repair cost based on the information for calculating the repair cost.
   The information processing device according to claim 1.
8. Further having an output unit for outputting information indicating the repair timing.
   The information processing device according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
9. Information processing device
   Obtained based on inspection result information indicating a plurality of damage degrees corresponding to each of a plurality of deformations of a plurality of parts of a civil engineering structure inspected in the past and a plurality of service periods corresponding to the plurality of parts. Using the information for deriving the degree of damage in the future service period in each of the plurality of variants, predictive information indicating the degree of damage in the future service period in each of the plurality of variants is generated.
   The repair timing is specified based on the repair determination information indicating whether or not the repair is performed according to the combination of the damage degrees of each of the plurality of deformations and the prediction information.
   Specific method.
10. For information processing equipment
    Obtained based on inspection result information indicating a plurality of damage degrees corresponding to each of a plurality of deformations of a plurality of parts of a civil engineering structure inspected in the past and a plurality of service periods corresponding to the plurality of parts. Using the information for deriving the degree of damage in the future service period in each of the plurality of variants, predictive information indicating the degree of damage in the future service period in each of the plurality of variants is generated.
    The repair timing is specified based on the repair determination information indicating whether or not the repair is performed according to the combination of the damage degrees of each of the plurality of deformations and the prediction information.
    A specific program that executes processing.

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