JP2021168051A - Prediction system, prediction method and standby location selection server - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide a prediction system, a prediction method, and a standby location selection server that select a standby location allowing reduction of an on-site arrival time in consideration of dynamics of a plurality of moving objects.SOLUTION: In a standby location selection system, a standby location selection server 100 includes: a dispatchable vehicle position prediction unit 111 that receives standby location information including position information and standby locations preset as candidates for causing a moving object to stand by, dynamics information of the moving object and instruction information, calculates an estimated position of the moving object for each preset time when the moving object to be predicted heads for each of the standby locations based on the position information of the moving object included in the instruction information and the position information of the standby locations; and an optimal standby location calculation unit 112 that calculates an on-site arrival time of the moving object to a preset point for each predetermined subregion including the standby location based on the estimated position of the moving object for each time.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

The present invention relates to a system for predicting the placement destination of personnel and moving objects.

As a technique for predicting the allocation of personnel, for example, Patent Document 1 is known. In this patent document 1, "at least from the waiting place of each carrier candidate to the site based on the waiting place information of each carrier candidate, the site position information of the patient information, and the position information of each transport destination candidate. The predicted required time from the site to each transport destination candidate is obtained and displayed for each carrier candidate. "

Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2012-208667

In operations such as police, firefighting, and security, it is very important to shorten the time from when a vehicle enters the site to when it arrives at the site (hereinafter referred to as "site arrival time"). For that purpose, it is effective to place the vehicle (or personnel) in an appropriate place in anticipation of the next incident. The optimum vehicle placement for shortening the site arrival time can be defined as the vehicle placement that minimizes the expected value of the average site arrival time in the jurisdiction area.

The expected value of the average arrival time at the site in the jurisdiction area can be calculated by, for example, the following method. That is, the on-site arrival time for each subregion is calculated by calculating the travel time from a vehicle that can participate in each subregion that divides the jurisdiction area by, for example, 1 km square, using the technology of Patent Document 1. ..

Furthermore, the expected value of the average arrival time at the site in the jurisdiction area is calculated by weighted averaging the arrival time at the site based on the number of incidents per unit time for each subregion.

Imagine a situation in which a vehicle that has completed work at a place of participation and is able to re-enter decides which of the multiple waiting place candidates should be returned. Using the prior art, the expected value of the above average arrival time at the site is calculated based on the position of the vehicle and other vehicles already on standby for each return to each waiting location, and the expected value is the minimum. You will have to select a waiting place to become.

However, if another vehicle can re-enter near the waiting place immediately after returning, two vehicles will be placed in the vicinity, which causes a problem of inefficiency.

Therefore, the present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and an object of the present invention is to select a waiting place capable of reducing the arrival time at the site in consideration of the dynamics of a plurality of moving objects.

The present invention is a prediction system including a standby location selection server having a processor and a memory, a terminal connected to the standby location selection server, and a dynamic management device connected to the standby location selection server. The dynamic management device collects dynamic information including the dynamic of the moving body, the position information of the moving body, and the destination of the moving body, and transmits the dynamic information to the standby location selection server and the terminal. The terminal has a dynamic information transmission unit for transmitting, and the terminal has an instruction generation unit that receives the dynamic information and transmits instruction information designating the mobile body to be predicted to the standby location selection server. The standby location selection server receives the standby location information including the standby location preset as a candidate for waiting the mobile body, the position information of the standby location, the dynamic information of the mobile object, and the instruction information. Based on the position information of the moving body included in the instruction information and the position information of the waiting place, when the moving body to be predicted heads for each of the waiting places, every preset time Based on the position prediction unit that calculates the estimated position of the moving body and the estimated position of the moving body for each time, the moving body to a predetermined point for each predetermined small area including the waiting place. It has an optimum waiting place calculation unit for calculating the arrival time at the site.

According to one aspect of the present invention, it is possible to realize a system that accurately estimates the waiting place of a moving body, taking into consideration the trend of a moving body that is not currently in a state of being able to participate but will be in a state of being able to participate in the near future.

Details of at least one practice of the subject matter disclosed herein are set forth in the accompanying drawings and in the description below. Other features, aspects, and effects of the disclosed subject matter are manifested in the disclosures, drawings, and claims below.

It is a block diagram which shows the Example of this invention and shows the configuration example of the standby place selection system. It is a figure which shows the Example of this invention and shows an example of a destination table. It is a figure which shows the Example of this invention and shows an example of the waiting place candidate table. It is a figure which shows the Example of this invention and shows an example of the prediction target time. It is a figure which shows the Example of this invention and shows an example of the participation possible vehicle position table. It is a figure which shows the Example of this invention and shows an example of the on-site arrival time table. It is a figure which shows the Example of this invention and shows an example of the case number prediction result table. It is a figure which shows the Example of this invention and shows an example of dynamic information. It is a flowchart which shows the Example of this invention and shows an example of the waiting place selection process. It is a figure which shows the Example of this invention and shows an example of the standby place selection instruction screen. It is a figure which shows the Example of this invention and shows an example of the waiting place selection instruction information. It is a flowchart which shows the Example of this invention and shows an example of the near future position prediction processing of the waiting place instruction vehicle. It is a flowchart which shows the Example of this invention and shows an example of the re-entry possible time and position calculation processing of the participating vehicle. It is a flowchart which shows the Example of this invention and shows an example of the optimum waiting place calculation process. It is a figure which shows the Example of this invention and shows an example of the optimum arrangement information. It is a figure which shows the Example of this invention and shows an example of the selection result screen.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. In the present embodiment, in principle, the same components are designated by the same reference numerals, and the repeated description will be omitted. It should be noted that the present embodiment is merely an example for realizing the present invention and does not limit the technical scope of the present invention.

The present embodiment predicts vehicles that have completed work at the participation destination and can re-enter, and selects the optimum return destination when returning these vehicles to one of a plurality of standby location candidates. The selection system will be described.

In this embodiment, the selection of the return destination at the timing when the vehicle can be re-entered will be described, but this embodiment can be applied to the vehicle that is already in the ready-to-participate state when the waiting place is changed. ..

Further, in this embodiment, an example targeting a vehicle is disclosed, but the target to be predicted is not limited to the vehicle, and any movement controlled by a motorcycle, a helicopter, a ship or a ship, a person, or any other human being is disclosed. Applicable to the body.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an example of the configuration of a standby location selection (prediction) system. The standby location selection system includes, for example, a standby location selection server 100 connected to a network 300 such as the Internet, a vehicle dynamics management system 200, and a terminal 400.

The standby location selection server 100 is composed of, for example, a computer having a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 101, a memory 102, an auxiliary storage device 103, and a communication device 104.

The CPU 101 includes a processor and executes a program stored in the memory 102. The memory 102 includes a ROM (Read Only Memory) which is a non-volatile storage element and a RAM (Random Access Memory) which is a volatile storage element. The ROM stores an immutable program (for example, BIOS (Basic Input / Output System)) or UEFI (Unified Extensible Firmware Interface). The RAM is a high-speed and volatile storage element such as a DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory), and temporarily stores a program executed by the CPU 101 and data used when the program is executed.

The auxiliary storage device 103 is, for example, a large-capacity and non-volatile storage device such as a magnetic storage device (HDD (Hard Disk Drive)) or a flash memory (SSD (Solid State Drive)), and is a program and a program executed by the CPU 101. Stores the data used when executing. That is, the program is read from the auxiliary storage device 103, loaded into the memory 102, and executed by the CPU 101.

The standby location selection server 100 may have an input interface 105 and an output interface 108. The input interface 105 is an interface to which an input device such as a keyboard 106 or a mouse 107 is connected and receives input from an operator.

The output interface 108 is an interface to which a display device 109, a printer, or other display device is connected, and outputs a program execution result in a format that can be visually recognized by an operator.

The communication device 104 is a network interface device that controls communication with other devices according to a predetermined protocol. Further, the communication device 104 includes a serial interface such as USB.

The program executed by the CPU 101 is provided to the standby location selection server 100 via removable media (CD-ROM, flash memory, etc.) or the network 300, and is stored in the non-volatile auxiliary storage device 103, which is a non-temporary storage medium. NS. Therefore, the standby location selection server 100 may have an interface for reading data from removable media.

The standby location selection server 100 is a computer system composed of physically one computer or a plurality of computers logically or physically configured, and is executed by separate threads on the same computer. It may be executed on a virtual computer built on a plurality of physical computer resources. The same applies to the vehicle dynamics management system 200.

The CPU 101 functions as, for example, a vehicle position prediction unit 111 that can participate and an optimum standby location calculation unit 112. The entrantable vehicle position prediction unit 111 is, for example, a vehicle for which a waiting place is instructed (hereinafter referred to as a waiting place indicating vehicle) or a vehicle currently participating (hereinafter referred to as a participating vehicle) in the near future. Predict the position of and the time when activity becomes possible.

The optimum waiting place calculation unit 112 calculates the predicted value of the entire area of the site arrival time until the near future when each waiting place candidate is selected, selects the waiting place having the smallest predicted value, and results in the result. Is output to the display device 109.

For example, the CPU 101 functions as a participationable vehicle position prediction unit 111 by executing the position prediction program of the participation available vehicle loaded in the memory 102. The relationship between the program and the functional unit is the same for the other functional units included in the CPU 101. Further, the relationship between the program and the functional unit is the same for the functional unit described later included in the CPU 201 of the vehicle dynamics management system 200.

In addition, a part or all of the functions by the functional part included in the CPU 101 and the CPU 201 may be realized by hardware such as ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) and FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array).

The auxiliary storage device 103 holds, for example, a destination table 121, a waiting place candidate table 122, a prediction target time 123, a vehicle position table 124 that can participate, a site arrival time table 125, and a case number prediction result table 126.

A part or all of the information stored in the auxiliary storage device 103 may be stored in the memory 102, or may be stored in the database connected to the standby location selection server 100.

The destination table 121 holds the position information of the current destination of the participating vehicle. The waiting place candidate table 122 holds the position information of the waiting base to which the waiting place indicating vehicle is heading.

The predicted target time 123 holds one or more times of targets for predicting the on-site arrival time of the vehicle. The participateable vehicle position table 124 holds the ID and position information of the vehicles that can participate at each time of the prediction target time 123 for each of the cases where the waiting place indicating vehicle heads for each waiting place candidate.

The site arrival time table 125 holds the prediction result of the site arrival time from each waiting place candidate 1241 to the representative point of each mesh (subregion) at each time of the prediction target time 123. The site arrival time table 125 is generated for each waiting place candidate 1241.

Here, the mesh is an area specified by the area mesh code defined by JISX0410, which is a JIS standard. For example, in the case of the 8-digit tertiary mesh code shown in the example of FIG. 6, each mesh is a specific area approximately 1 km square.

The representative point of the mesh is, for example, the coordinates of the center of gravity of the mesh. An address such as a town name or a chome may be used instead of the mesh code, and the representative point in that case is, for example, the coordinates of the center of gravity of the area belonging to the address.

The case number prediction result table 126 holds the result of predicting the number of dispatch requests per unit time of each mesh. The number of cases is calculated in advance by, for example, multiplying the population by age in the mesh by a predetermined ratio and adding for all ages.

In this embodiment, the information used by the standby location selection system may be represented by any data structure regardless of the data structure. In the present embodiment, the information is expressed in a table format, but the information can be stored, for example, in a data structure appropriately selected from a list, a database, or a queue.

The vehicle dynamics management system 200 is composed of, for example, a computer having a CPU 201, a memory 202, an auxiliary storage device 203, a communication device 204, an input device 205, and a display device 206. The vehicle dynamics management system 200 is, for example, a communication command system possessed by a police organization or a fire department.

The CPU 201 functions as, for example, the dynamic information transmission unit 211. For example, the dynamic information transmission unit 211 collects real-time dynamic information 127 of each vehicle shown in FIG. 8 and transmits it to the standby location selection server 100. For the collection of the dynamic information 127 performed by the dynamic information transmission unit 211, a well-known or known technique may be applied.

The input device 205 is, for example, a keyboard, a mouse, or the like. The display device 206 is, for example, a display or the like. The vehicle dynamics management system 200 may also have an input interface and an output interface, and may be connected to an external input device and a display device, as in the standby location selection server 100.

The terminal 400 is composed of, for example, a computer having a CPU 401, a memory 402, an auxiliary storage device 403, a communication device 404, an input device 405, and a display device 406.

The CPU 401 functions as, for example, a standby location selection instruction generation unit 411. The standby location selection instruction generation unit 411 generates standby location selection instruction information based on the dynamic information 127 received from the vehicle dynamics management system 200 and input information from the user, and transmits the standby location selection instruction information to the standby location selection server 100, for example.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of the destination table 121. The destination table 121 includes, for example, a facility 1211 holding an identifier of the destination to which the participating vehicle is heading, a latitude 1212 holding the latitude of the destination, and a longitude 1213 also holding the longitude in one record. The destination table 121 is preset position information of the destination.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of the standby location candidate table 122. The waiting place candidate table 122 includes an ID 1221 that holds the ID (identifier) of each candidate site to which the waiting place indicating vehicle is heading, a name 1222 that holds the name of each candidate site, and a latitude 1223 that holds the latitude of each candidate site. One record contains the longitude 1224 that holds the longitude. The waiting place candidate table 122 is preset position information of the waiting place.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of the prediction target time 123. For the prediction target time 123, for example, three, 0 minutes, 10 minutes, and 20 minutes later are stored in advance. The prediction target time 123 is set to the prediction target time from the present to the future. In this embodiment, it is shown that the prediction is performed at the present time and the time after 10 minutes and 20 minutes.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of a vehicle position table 124 that can participate. The participateable vehicle position table 124 includes a waiting place candidate 1241, a prediction target time 1242, a vehicle ID 1243, a latitude 1244, and a longitude 1245 in one record.

The waiting place candidate 1241 holds any of the values included in the waiting place candidate ID 1221, and means that the record indicates the prediction result when the waiting place indicating vehicle heads for the waiting place candidate. do.

The prediction target time 1242 holds any of the values included in the prediction target time 123, and means when the record indicates the prediction result at that time.

The vehicle ID 1243, latitude 1244, and longitude 1245 hold the identifier, latitude, and longitude of the vehicle to be predicted, respectively.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the site arrival time table 125. The site arrival time table 125 includes the predicted target time 1251, the mesh code 1252, and the site arrival time (minutes) 1253 in one record. The site arrival time table 125 is a table generated for each waiting place.

The prediction target time 1251 holds any of the values included in the prediction target time 123, and means when the record indicates the prediction result at that time.

The mesh code 1252 holds the mesh code to be predicted. The site arrival time (minutes) 1253 holds the prediction result of the site arrival time at the representative point of the mesh code.

FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of the case number prediction result table 126. The case number prediction result table 126 includes a mesh code 1261 that holds the mesh code to be predicted, and a case number 1262 that holds the prediction result of the number of cases per unit time in the mesh. The number of cases prediction result table 126 is information in which the number of cases that occur for each mesh is predicted in advance. The case number prediction result table 126 may hold the prediction result for each time zone.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of dynamic information 127 transmitted by the vehicle dynamics management system 200 to the standby location selection server 100. The dynamic information 127 includes a vehicle ID 1271 that holds the vehicle identifier, a dynamic 1272 that holds the vehicle status, a latitude 1273 that holds the latitude of the vehicle, a longitude 1274 that also holds the longitude, and a purpose of holding the moving destination of the participating vehicle. Latitude 1275 is included in one record.

Depending on the current state of the vehicle, the dynamic 1272 is "possible to participate" if it is possible, "cannot participate" if it is not possible, and "participating" if it is participating. Holds the value of. In addition, "participating" indicates a state in which the vehicle is moving to the destination, "participation possible" indicates a state in which the vehicle can be instructed to a new destination, and "participation not possible" indicates the vehicle. Indicates that is not in operation.

The destination 1275 holds the value of any of the facilities 1211 on the destination table 121 only when the dynamic 1272 is "participating" and does not hold the value when the dynamic 1272 is other than "participating".

In this embodiment, an example of setting a place where re-entry is expected to be possible at the destination 1275 is shown, and when the vehicle is an ambulance, the “Facility A” shown in the figure is a medical institution. If the vehicle is a police vehicle, the destination will be the location of the incident.

FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing an example of the standby location selection process. This process is executed at a predetermined cycle. First, the dynamic information transmission unit 211 of the vehicle dynamics management system 200 transmits the dynamic information 127 to the standby location selection server 100 (S901). The entrantable vehicle position prediction unit 111 of the standby location selection server 100 receives the dynamic information 127 and transmits it to the terminal 400 (S902).

The terminal 400 that has received the dynamic information 127 displays, for example, a screen as shown in FIG. 10 on the display device 406 (S908). The processes of steps S901 to S902 are executed at a predetermined cycle.

FIG. 10 is an example of the standby location selection instruction screen F1000 for presenting the dynamic information 127 of each vehicle to the user and receiving the execution instruction for selecting the standby location from the user.

The vehicle ID F1001, the dynamic F1002, and the destination F1003 in the table on the left side of the screen have the same meanings as the vehicle ID 1271, the dynamic 1272, and the destination 1275 of the dynamic information 127, respectively, and the information of the dynamic information 127 may be displayed as it is. However, the user may enter the information himself / herself on the screen.

The referent F1004 is a radio button, and the user can mark one of the vehicles that can participate in the vehicle via the input device 405. The selection will be made.

Map F1005 is displayed on the right side of the screen. Map F1005 shows the positions of each vehicle in addition to the bases M to O, which are candidates for waiting places. The icon indicated by F1006 is the position of the vehicle having the first vehicle ID.

In this embodiment, one mesh F1008 is a small area in which the map F1005 is divided into squares. In addition, the jurisdiction area of the waiting place selection system is an area where a plurality of small areas are gathered.

The position of the base in the map is displayed based on the latitude 1223 and the longitude 1224 of the waiting place candidate table 122. The position of the vehicle on the map may be displayed based on the latitude 1273 and the longitude 1274 of the dynamic information 127, or the user may specify himself / herself on the screen. The selection start button F1007 is a button in which the user instructs the standby location selection server 100 to start processing via the input device 405.

In the illustrated example, the vehicle IDF1001 = "4" is an example in which the work is completed at the participation destination (destination) and becomes "participation possible", and the user of the terminal 400 waits for the vehicle to be placed. The case where the standby place selection server 100 is instructed to select the place candidate is shown.

The explanation will be continued by returning to FIG. When the user marks one of the referents F1004 on the standby location selection instruction screen F1000 and presses the selection start button F1007, the standby location selection instruction generation unit 411 of the terminal 400 generates standby location selection instruction information. It is transmitted to the standby location selection server 100 (S909).

The standby location selection instruction information 128 of FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of the standby location selection instruction information generated in step S909.

The waiting place selection instruction information 128 includes the vehicle ID 1281, the dynamics 1282, the latitude 1283, the longitude 1284, the destination 1285, and the referent flag 1286 in one record. Of these, the vehicle ID 1281, the dynamic 1282, and the destination 1285 are generated based on the vehicle ID F1001, the dynamic F1002, and the destination F1003 on the standby location selection instruction screen F1000.

Further, the latitude 1283 and the longitude 1284 are generated based on the position of the vehicle on the map F1005 of the waiting place selection instruction screen F1000. The referent flag 1286 is given a value of "1" to the vehicles marked on the referent F1004 of the waiting place selection instruction screen F1000, and a value of "0" to the other vehicles.

The explanation will be continued by returning to FIG. The entrantable vehicle position prediction unit 111 of the standby location selection server 100 receives the standby location selection instruction information from the terminal 400 (S903).

The entrantable vehicle position prediction unit 111 predicts the position of the waiting place indicating vehicle at each prediction target time held by the prediction target time 123 for each case where the waiting place indicating vehicle heads for each waiting place candidate (S904). ). Details of step S904 will be described later.

In this process, the entrantable vehicle position prediction unit 111 predicts the position of each of the waiting places of the waiting place candidate table 122 when the waiting place indicating vehicle heads for each of the waiting places of the waiting place candidate table 122, and predicts the position at each time set in the prediction target time 123, and participates. Output to the possible vehicle position table 124.

The participateable vehicle position prediction unit 111 calculates the time and the position at which the participating vehicle can re-enter (S905A). Details of step S905A will be described later.

Next, the entrantable vehicle position prediction unit 111 records the current position information as it is in the entrantable vehicle position table 124 (S905B) for the vehicle that has already entered and is not the waiting place indicating vehicle.

The optimum standby location calculation unit 112 of the standby location selection server 100 is a standby location candidate that minimizes the average arrival time at the site in the jurisdiction area when the standby location indicating vehicle goes to the weather, that is, the optimum standby location candidate. The standby location is calculated and the result is transmitted to the terminal 400 (S906). Details of step S906 will be described later.

The result display unit 412 of the terminal 400 displays the optimum standby location on the display device 406 (FIG. 10).

FIG. 12 is a flowchart showing an example of the near future position prediction process of the waiting place indicating vehicle in step S904. The participateable vehicle position prediction unit 111 sets X = 1 in the counter (S1201).

The entrantable vehicle position prediction unit 111 reads out the latitude 1223 and the longitude 1224 of the waiting place candidate in the Xth row of the waiting place candidate table 122, and sets the coordinates as the arrival point. Then, the participateable vehicle position prediction unit 111 sets the latitude 1283 and the longitude 1284 of the waiting place indicating vehicle, that is, the vehicle having the instruction target flag 1286 of "1" in the waiting place selection instruction information 128, as the starting point. The movement route and the movement time from the departure point to the arrival point are calculated (S1202).

In calculating the travel route and travel time, a route calculation process using a route calculation algorithm such as Dijkstra's algorithm may be executed at this timing, or the travel time and travel route between multiple points may be determined in advance by some method. The calculated result may be stored in the database and read at this timing. The same applies to the calculation of other movement routes and movement times in this embodiment.

Further, the calculation of the movement route and the movement time may be executed by referring to the map information (not shown) by the standby location selection server 100, or the standby location selection server 100 informs an external navigation service or the like of the departure point and the arrival point. It may be transmitted and calculated.

The participateable vehicle position prediction unit 111 calculates the position of the waiting place indicating vehicle at each time of the prediction target time 123. That is, at a time after the travel time calculated in step S1202, the latitude 1223 and the longitude 1224 of the standby location candidate in the Xth row of the standby location candidate table 122 are set as the positions of the standby location indicating vehicles.

The participateable vehicle position prediction unit 111 calculates the position at each time on the assumption that the vehicle travels on the movement route calculated in step S1202 at a constant speed at a time before the movement time calculated in step S1202. Then, the participation possible vehicle position prediction unit 111 records the calculation result in the participation possible vehicle position table 124 (S1203).

The entrantable vehicle position prediction unit 111 evaluates whether or not the counter X is the same as the number of rows in the waiting place candidate table 122 (S1204), and if they are the same, ends the process. On the other hand, if they are not the same, the participateable vehicle position prediction unit 111 adds 1 to X, returns to step S1202, and repeats the above process (S1205).

By the above processing, the position of the waiting place indicating vehicle at each prediction target time is predicted and stored in the available vehicle position table 124 for each of the cases where the waiting place indicating vehicle heads for each waiting place candidate of the waiting place candidate table 122. Will be done.

FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing an example of the re-entry possible time and position calculation processing of the participating vehicle in step S905A. This process is executed by repeating the process of steps S1301 to S1306 for all the participating vehicles.

The participateable vehicle position prediction unit 111 sets the latitude 1283 and the longitude 1284 of the vehicle whose dynamic 1282 in the standby location selection instruction information 128 is "participating", that is, the participating vehicle as the starting point.

Then, the participateable vehicle position prediction unit 111 refers to the destination 1285 of the vehicle, acquires the latitude 1212 and the longitude 1213 of the destination from the destination table 121, and sets them as the arrival point. Then, the participateable vehicle position prediction unit 111 calculates the travel time from the departure point to the arrival point. If there are a plurality of participating vehicles, the same processing is performed for all of them (S1301).

The participateable vehicle position prediction unit 111 calculates the re-entry possible time for each of the participating vehicles by adding a predetermined preparation time to the movement time calculated in step S1301 (S1302).

Here, the predetermined preparation time means the total time required for the activities to be carried out after the participating vehicle arrives at the destination and the preparation for re-entry. In this embodiment, it is assumed that the contents of the activity and the preparatory work are standard, and the predetermined preparatory time is set to a fixed value such as "20 minutes".

The participateable vehicle position prediction unit 111 sets X = 1 in the counter (S1303).

For each of the participating vehicles, the entrantable vehicle position prediction unit 111 sets the time after the re-entry possible time calculated in step S1302 among the times held by the prediction target time 123 to the destination 1285 of the participating vehicle. The IDs, latitudes and longitudes of those vehicles are recorded in the available vehicle position table 124 as if they were present at the location of.

At this time, the waiting place candidate 1241 records the ID 1221 of the record in the Xth row in the waiting place candidate table 122. As for the time before the re-entry possible time calculated in step S1302, since the participating vehicle cannot re-enter, those vehicles are not recorded in the re-entry vehicle position table 124 (S1304).

The participateable vehicle position prediction unit 111 evaluates whether or not the value of the counter X is the same as the number of rows in the waiting place candidate table 122 (S1305), and if they are the same, ends the process. On the other hand, if the value of the counter X is not the same as the number of rows, the participateable vehicle position prediction unit 111 adds 1 to the counter X, returns to step S1304, and repeats the above process (S1306).

By the above processing, the re-entry possible time is calculated for each of the participating vehicles, and the latitude and longitude for each prediction target time are stored in the available vehicle position table 124. The output results of the available vehicle position prediction unit 111 can also be used as a placement prediction system.

FIG. 14 is a flowchart showing an example of the optimum standby location calculation process in step S906.

The optimum standby location calculation unit 112 sets the counter X to X = 1. Further, a sufficiently large numerical value, for example, 9999 (minutes) is assigned to the variable T _{MIN (S1401).}

The optimum standby location calculation unit 112 sets the counter Y to Y = 1 (S1402).

In the optimum waiting place calculation unit 112, the record group in which the waiting place candidate 1241 matches the counter X and the predicted target time 1242 matches the time of the Yth row in the predicted target time 123 from the available vehicle position table 124. Is extracted.

The extracted record group is the position of one or more available vehicles at the time of the Yth row in the predicted target time 123 when the waiting place indicating vehicle heads for the waiting place of the Xth row in the waiting place candidate table 122. Means information.

Then, the optimum waiting place calculation unit 112 sets the representative point of each mesh as the arrival point, and sets the respective positions (latitude 1244, longitude 1245) of the extracted one or more available vehicles as the starting point. The travel time is calculated, and the smallest travel time is set as the on-site arrival time of the mesh (S1403). The optimum waiting place calculation unit 112 calculates the minimum travel time for all meshes and calculates the on-site arrival time for each mesh.

The optimum standby location calculation unit 112 evaluates whether the value of the counter Y is the same as the number of rows of the prediction target time 123 (S1404), and if not, adds 1 to the counter Y and returns to step S1403. The above process is repeated (S1411).

On the other hand, if the value of the counter Y is the same as the number of rows of the prediction target time 123, the optimum standby location calculation unit 112 completes the calculation of the on-site arrival time at all the prediction target times 123 for the standby location of the counter X. Then, the process proceeds to step S1405.

In step S1405, the optimum standby location calculation unit 112 first calculates a weighted average of the arrival times at the site of each mesh for the first prediction target time. For the weighting of the weighted average, the number of cases 1262 of each mesh read from the case number prediction result table 126 is used as the weight.

As a result, for the first prediction target time, the average on-site arrival time _{TX_1 for the} entire jurisdiction area is calculated, taking into account the number of cases for each mesh. Then, the optimal waiting position calculation unit 112, the same calculation is performed also for all of the prediction target time of second and _{subsequent, T X_2, T X_3, ···} T X_N the (N is the number of rows prediction target time 123) calculate.

The optimal waiting position calculation unit 112, the average site arrival time _T X_1 for each prediction target _time, T _{X_2,} T X_3, by calculating the average of · · · _{T X_N,} jurisdiction through all prediction target time Calculate the average on-site arrival time _{TX_AVE to the mesh for the entire area. The average on-site arrival time TX_AVE} of all predicted target times in the entire jurisdiction area may be _set as the average on-site arrival time TX_AVE in the jurisdiction area.

The optimum waiting place calculation unit 112 _{evaluates whether the average on-site arrival time TX_AVE} is smaller than the variable T _MIN (S1406), and if it is not smaller, the process proceeds to step S1409 described later.

On the other hand, if _{TX_AVE} is _{smaller than T MIN} , the optimum waiting place calculation unit 112 substitutes the average on-site arrival time _{TX_AVE into the variable T MIN.} Then, the optimum standby location calculation unit 112 substitutes the standby location candidate of the counter X into the optimum standby location W (S1407). That is, when the current average site arrival time _{TX_AVE} is smaller _{than the previously calculated variable T MIN} , the optimum standby location calculation unit 112 _{replaces the value of the variable T MIN} with the current average site arrival time _{TX_AVE} . ..

The optimum waiting place calculation unit 112 records the site arrival time for each prediction target time and each mesh calculated in step S1403 in the site arrival time table 125. At this time, if the site arrival time table 125 already contains the old value, the optimum waiting place calculation unit 112 overwrites it with the new value (S1408).

The optimum standby location calculation unit 112 evaluates whether the value of the counter X is the same as the number of rows in the standby location candidate table 122 (S1409), and if not, adds 1 to X and returns to step S1402. The above process is repeated (S1410).

On the other hand, if the value of the counter X is the same as the number of rows, the optimum standby location calculation unit 112 proceeds to step S1412 because the site arrival time table 125 has been generated for all the standby location candidates.

The optimum waiting place calculation unit 112 extracts a record in which the waiting place candidate 1241 matches the optimum waiting place W from the available vehicle position table 124, and sets it as the optimum placement information F1500.

Then, the optimum waiting place calculation unit 112 includes the ID of the waiting place indicating vehicle specified from the waiting place selection instruction information 128, the optimum waiting place W, the waiting place candidate table 122, the site arrival time table 125, and the case number prediction result table 126. _{, The variable T MIN} to which the minimum average arrival time at the site is substituted, and the optimum placement information F1500 (FIG. 15) are transmitted to the terminal 400 (S1412).

_{By updating the variable T MIN} with the average site arrival time TX_AVE in the loop processing of steps S1402 to _S1409 , the standby for the waiting location selection instruction target that minimizes the average site arrival time in the jurisdiction area from the site arrival time of each mesh. The location can be calculated.

FIG. 15 is a diagram showing an example of the optimum arrangement information F1500. The optimum arrangement information F1500 includes the prediction target time F1501, the vehicle ID_F1502, the latitude F1503, and the longitude F1504 in one record. The optimum arrangement information F1500 is a table generated for each standby location.

FIG. 16 is a diagram showing an example of the selection result screen F1600 displayed on the display device 406 by the result display unit 412 of the terminal 400 in step S907.

On the left side of the screen, the name of the optimum waiting place W (F1601) and the expected average arrival time at the site (F1602) are displayed. At the upper right of the screen, a bar F1603 indicating the type of prediction target time is displayed.

The round icon F1604 displayed on the bar F1603 indicates which prediction target time state the information on the map F1605 at the lower right of the screen indicates. Then, the user of the terminal 400 can change the prediction target time displayed on the map F1605 by dragging left and right by operating the mouse.

The star F1606 in the map F1605 represents the position of the optimum waiting place W of the vehicle to be instructed to select the waiting place. The double circle icon F1607 and the single circle icon F1608 in the map F1605 indicate the position of each vehicle obtained from the optimum placement information F1500, and the double circle icon F1607 is a waiting place indicating vehicle. means.

The square grid in the map F1605 represents a mesh, and each grid (F1609) is colored in a darker color as the numerical value of the site arrival time (minutes) 1253 of the site arrival time table 125 increases.

With the above system, the vehicle that minimizes the predicted value (F1602) of the average arrival time at the site in the jurisdiction area (mesh) for the entire period from the present to the near future (about the average occurrence interval of the case). It is possible to select the waiting place more accurately, and it is possible to deal with the next incident more quickly.

As described above, the standby location selection server 100 of this embodiment predicts the vehicles that can be re-entered after completing the work or mission at the participation destination, and waits for a plurality of target vehicles (waiting location selection instruction targets). When returning to one of the place candidates, it is possible to estimate the waiting place where the predicted value of the average arrival time at the site of the mesh (small area) in the jurisdiction area is the minimum as the return destination.

In the above embodiment, an example is shown in which the standby location selection server 100 receives the dynamic information 127 from the vehicle dynamics management system 200 and then transmits the dynamic information 127 to the terminal 400, but the present invention is not limited to this, and the vehicle is not limited to this. The dynamic management system 200 may directly transmit the dynamic information 127 to the terminal 400.

<Conclusion>
As described above, the prediction system of the above embodiment can have the following configuration.

(1), (5), (11) A standby location selection server (100) having a processor (101) and a memory (102), a terminal (400) connected to the standby location selection server (100), and the above. It is a prediction system having a dynamics management device (vehicle dynamics management system 200) connected to a standby location selection server (100), and the dynamics management device (200) is a dynamics of a moving body (vehicle: F1006). , The dynamic information (127) including the position information (latitude 1273, longitude 1274) of the moving body and the destination (1275) of the moving body is collected, and the waiting place selection server (100) and the said The terminal (400) has a dynamic information transmission unit (211) for transmitting the dynamic information (127), and the terminal (400) receives the dynamic information (127) and transmits the moving body to be predicted. The standby location selection server (100) has an instruction generation unit (standby location selection instruction generation unit 411) that transmits designated instruction information (standby location selection instruction information 128) to the standby location selection server (100). The waiting place information (waiting place candidate table 122) including the waiting place preset as a candidate for making the moving body wait, the position information of the waiting place, the dynamic information (127) of the moving body, and the instruction. The information (128) is received, and the prediction is made based on the position information (1273, 1274) of the moving body included in the instruction information (128) and the position information (latitude 1223, longitude 1224) of the waiting place. When the target moving body heads for each of the waiting places, a position prediction unit (participable vehicle position prediction unit 111) that calculates an estimated position of the moving body for each preset time (prediction target time 123). And, based on the estimated position of the moving body for each time (123), the on-site arrival time (1253) of the moving body to a preset point for each predetermined small area (mesh F1008) including the waiting place. ) Is included in the optimum standby location calculation unit (112).

With the above configuration, the optimum standby location calculation unit 112 can calculate the average site arrival time _{TX_1} for the entire jurisdiction area from the site arrival time for each mesh for each prediction target time.

(2) In the prediction system according to the above (1), (5), and (11), the optimum standby location calculation unit (112) calculates the small amount for each of the standby locations for each time. from the field time of arrival of each region (1253), the calculated average site arrival time of the entire area including subregional (F 1008) (jurisdiction area) _{(T X_1),} and the average field arrival time _{(T X_1)} it is minimal A prediction system characterized by outputting information (F1601) of the standby location.

With the above configuration, the standby location selection server 100 can re-enter after completing work or mission at the participation destination in consideration of the trend of vehicles that are not currently available for participation but will be able to participate in the near future. When predicting a vehicle and returning the target vehicle (target for instruction to select a waiting location) to one of multiple waiting location candidates, the average arrival time at the site of the mesh (subregion) within the jurisdiction area (entire area) It is possible to estimate the waiting place where the predicted value of is the minimum as the return destination.

(3) The prediction system according to (1), (5), and (11) above, wherein the dynamic information (127) is at least a new purpose for the moving body while the moving body is participating toward the destination. The position prediction unit (111) includes two types of values, that is, the place can be specified (dynamic 1272), and the position prediction unit (111) sets the current location (1273, 1274) and the destination (1275) of the moving body in the field. Based on this, a prediction system characterized in that the time (S1302) at which the moving body in the participation is able to participate again and the position (S1304) of the moving body at the time are predicted.

With the above configuration, the standby location selection server 100 can predict the time and position at which the vehicle currently participating can participate again from the current location and the destination.

(4) In the prediction system according to the above (2), (7), and (12), the optimum waiting place calculation unit (112) is the number of cases per unit time for each subregion (F1008). 1262) to get the, sub-regional average site arrival time of the entire region (jurisdiction area) _{(T X_1),} said to each of the time on the basis of the sub-regional (F1008) cases the number per unit time of each (1262) A prediction system characterized in that it is calculated by weighted averaging the on-site arrival time (1253) for each (F1008).

With the above configuration, the standby location selection server 100 weights the number of cases for each mesh _{and calculates the average arrival time at the site (TX_1} ), so that the next case that may occur can be dealt with more quickly. It will be possible to do it.

(5) In the prediction system according to (2), (7), and (12) above, the optimum waiting place calculation unit (112) is the average arrival time at the site (1253) of the entire area (jurisdiction area). the calculation is performed for each time in the future that the current and one or more of the time (123) has elapsed, jurisdiction area average site arrival time the average value of the respective average site arrival times at each time (T _{X_1)} (T _{X_AVE} ), And outputs the information (F1601) of the waiting place where the average arrival time at the site in the jurisdiction area ( _{TX_AVE) is minimized.}

With the above configuration, the standby location selection server 100 has a predicted value (F1602) of the average arrival time at the site in the jurisdiction area (mesh) for the entire period from the present to the near future (about the average occurrence interval of the case). , It is possible to more accurately estimate the waiting place of the vehicle that will be the minimum, and it will be possible to deal with the next incident more quickly.

The present invention is not limited to the above-described examples, and includes various modifications. For example, the above-described embodiment is described in detail in order to explain the present invention in an easy-to-understand manner, and is not necessarily limited to the one including all the configurations described. Further, it is possible to replace a part of the configuration of one embodiment with the configuration of another embodiment, and it is also possible to add the configuration of another embodiment to the configuration of one embodiment. Further, for a part of the configuration of each embodiment, any of addition, deletion, or replacement of other configurations can be applied alone or in combination.

Further, each of the above configurations, functions, processing units, processing means and the like may be realized by hardware by designing a part or all of them by, for example, an integrated circuit. Further, each of the above configurations, functions, and the like may be realized by software by the processor interpreting and executing a program that realizes each function. Information such as programs, tables, and files that realize each function can be stored in a memory, a hard disk, a recording device such as an SSD (Solid State Drive), or a recording medium such as an IC card, an SD card, or a DVD.

In addition, the control lines and information lines indicate those that are considered necessary for explanation, and do not necessarily indicate all the control lines and information lines in the product. In practice, it can be considered that almost all configurations are interconnected.

100 Standby location selection server 101 CPU
102 Memory 111 Available vehicle position prediction unit 112 Optimal waiting place calculation unit 121 Destination table 122 Waiting place candidate table 123 Prediction target time 124 Participable vehicle position table 125 Site arrival time table 126 Number of cases prediction result table 200 Vehicle dynamics management system 211 Dynamic information transmission unit 400 Terminal 411 Standby location selection instruction generation unit 412 Result display unit

Claims (15)

A standby location selection server with a processor and memory,
The terminal connected to the standby location selection server and
A prediction system having a dynamics management device connected to the standby location selection server.
The dynamic management device is
Dynamic information transmission that collects dynamic information including the dynamics of the moving body, the position information of the moving body, and the destination of the moving body, and transmits the dynamic information to the standby location selection server and the terminal. Has a part,
The terminal has an instruction generation unit that receives the dynamic information and transmits instruction information designating the mobile body to be predicted to the standby location selection server.
The standby location selection server is
A standby location preset as a candidate for waiting for the moving body, a standby location information including the position information of the standby location, and a standby location information.
Based on the dynamic information of the moving body, the position information of the moving body included in the instruction information, and the position information of the waiting place by receiving the instruction information, each of the moving bodies to be predicted is predicted. When heading to the waiting place, a position prediction unit that calculates an estimated position of the moving body for each preset time, and a position prediction unit.
An optimum waiting place calculation unit that calculates the on-site arrival time of the moving body to a preset point for each predetermined subregion including the waiting place based on the estimated position of the moving body for each time.
A prediction system characterized by having. The prediction system according to claim 1.
The optimum standby location calculation unit
For each of the waiting places, the average site arrival time of the entire area including the subregion is calculated from the site arrival time of each subregion calculated for each time, and the waiting where the average site arrival time is minimized. A prediction system characterized by outputting location information. The prediction system according to claim 1.
The dynamic information is
It includes at least two types of values, one in which the moving object is heading for the destination and the other in which the moving body can specify a new destination.
The position prediction unit
A prediction system characterized in that the time when the participating mobile body can participate again and the position of the moving body at the time are predicted based on the current location and the destination of the participating moving body. The prediction system according to claim 2.
The optimum standby location calculation unit
The number of cases per unit time for each subregion is acquired, and the average arrival time at the site for the entire region is calculated based on the number of cases per unit time for each subregion. A prediction system characterized by calculating by weighted averaging. The prediction system according to claim 2.
The optimum standby location calculation unit
The average on-site arrival time for the entire area is calculated for each time in the present and in the future when one or more of the above times have passed, and the average value of each average on-site arrival time at each time is calculated as the jurisdiction area average on-site arrival time. A prediction system characterized by outputting information on the waiting place where the average arrival time at the site in the jurisdiction area is minimized. A computer with a processor and memory is a prediction method that predicts the waiting location of a moving object.
The first step in which the computer receives the dynamics of the moving body, the position information of the moving body, the dynamic information including the destination of the moving body, and the instruction information including the identification information of the moving body to be predicted.
A second step in which the computer acquires standby location information including a standby location preset as a candidate for waiting for the moving body and position information of the standby location.
When the computer heads for each of the waiting places based on the position information of the moving body included in the instruction information and the position information of the waiting place, the computer is set in advance. The third step of calculating the estimated position of the moving body for each time
A fourth step in which the computer calculates the on-site arrival time of the moving body to a preset point for each predetermined subregion including the waiting place based on the estimated position of the moving body for each time. When,
A prediction method characterized by including. The prediction method according to claim 6.
A fifth step in which the computer calculates the average site arrival time for the entire area including the subregion from the site arrival time for each subregion calculated for each of the waiting locations.
A sixth step in which the computer outputs information on the waiting location that minimizes the average arrival time at the site.
A prediction method characterized by further including. The prediction method according to claim 6.
The dynamic information is
It includes at least two types of values, one in which the moving object is heading for the destination and the other in which the moving body can specify a new destination.
The second step is
It is characterized by including a step of predicting the time when the participating mobile body can participate again and the position of the moving body at the time based on the current location and the destination of the participating moving body. Prediction method. The prediction method according to claim 7.
The fifth step is
The step of acquiring the number of cases per unit time for each subregion, and
A step of calculating the average arrival time at the site for the entire region by weighted averaging the arrival time at the site for each subregion based on the number of cases per unit time for each subregion.
A prediction method characterized by including. The prediction method according to claim 7.
The fifth step is
The average on-site arrival time for the entire area is calculated for each time in the present and in the future when one or more of the above times have passed, and the average value of the average on-site arrival time for each time is calculated as the average on-site arrival time in the jurisdiction area. Steps to do and
A step of outputting information on the waiting place, which is the minimum of the average arrival time at the site in the jurisdiction, and
A prediction method characterized by including. A standby location selection server with a processor and memory
A standby location preset as a candidate for waiting for a moving body, a standby location information including the position information of the standby location, and a standby location information.
The instruction information is received by receiving the dynamic information including the dynamics of the moving body, the position information of the moving body, the destination of the moving body, and the instruction information specifying the moving body to be predicted. Based on the position information of the moving body and the position information of the waiting place included in the above, when the moving body to be predicted heads for each of the waiting places, the moving body for each preset time The position prediction unit that calculates the estimated position of
An optimum waiting place calculation unit that calculates the on-site arrival time of the moving body to a preset point for each predetermined subregion including the waiting place based on the estimated position of the moving body for each time.
A standby location selection server characterized by having. The standby location selection server according to claim 11.
The optimum standby location calculation unit
For each of the waiting places, the average site arrival time of the entire area including the subregion is calculated from the site arrival time of each subregion calculated for each time, and the waiting where the average site arrival time is minimized. A standby location selection server characterized by outputting location information. The standby location selection server according to claim 11.
The dynamic information is
It includes at least two types of values, one in which the moving object is heading for the destination and the other in which the moving body can specify a new destination.
The position prediction unit
Selection of a waiting place characterized by predicting the time when the moving body in the field can participate again and the position of the moving body at the time based on the current location and the destination of the moving body in the field. server. The standby location selection server according to claim 12.
The optimum standby location calculation unit
The number of cases per unit time for each subregion is acquired, and the average arrival time at the site for the entire region is calculated based on the number of cases per unit time for each subregion. A standby location selection server characterized by calculating by weighted averaging. The standby location selection server according to claim 12.
The optimum standby location calculation unit
The average on-site arrival time for the entire area is calculated for each time in the present and in the future when one or more of the above times have passed, and the average value of each average on-site arrival time at each time is calculated as the jurisdiction area average on-site arrival time. A standby location selection server, which outputs information on the standby location that minimizes the average arrival time at the site in the jurisdiction area.

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