JP2020166794A - Balance prediction device, balance prediction program, and balance prediction method - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide a balance prediction device that performs more accurate financial risk management in long-term asset management.SOLUTION: A balance prediction device 1 is a balance prediction device that predicts, assuming that a reference year when prediction is started is N year (N is an integer), up to after M years including N year (M is an integer, for example, 50). The balance prediction device makes a predication by using a settlement value for a period from N year to K years ago (K is an integer, for example, 5), a general planned value of a period until L years later including N year (L is an integer less than M, for example, 10) and a particular prediction value that requires particular processing for a period until M years later including N year.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 6

Description

The present invention relates to a balance forecasting device, a balance forecasting program, and a balance forecasting method.

Since the 1990s, investment in public works projects has decreased, and the amount of investment in water and sewage facilities has also been on a downward trend, but in recent years, the amount of investment has stopped declining due to the demand for renewal of aging water and sewage facilities. ..

Local governments are currently in charge of water supply and sewerage projects. Local governments continue to face difficult financial conditions, and are required to systematically raise funds to prevent the depletion of business funds in order to secure financial resources for the renewal and maintenance of facilities. Therefore, the following techniques are disclosed.

For example, as a first technique, a technique for performing the most cost-effective management and renewal by grasping the damage or deterioration of a facility in the future is disclosed (for example, Patent Document 1). In the first technique, there are multiple types of scenarios in which the timing of part repair and part replacement is determined in relation to at least one of the predicted soundness, the useful life of the part, and the useful life of the asset, and the soundness determined for each part. Multiple scenarios of predicted health for each future year based on current health, according to the degree reduction function and the amount of health recovery when parts are repaired or replaced, which is determined for each part. Is calculated for.

Based on the calculated forecasted soundness for each year, the implementation year of parts repair or replacement is planned for each of the multiple scenarios. The cost to be incurred in a predetermined period in the future is calculated for each of the plurality of scenarios, and the scenario with the lowest period cost is determined as the optimum scenario.

In addition, for example, as a second technology, the state and value of existing assets are quantified, and from the equipment renewal demand and financial balance information, appropriate maintenance and renewal plans for water and sewage facilities are supported from a medium- to long-term perspective. The system is disclosed (eg, Patent Document 2). In the second technology, the facility maintenance work support system calculates the monitoring cycle determined for each data from the water and sewage facilities or various facility information, inspection / maintenance data, monitoring data, and plant data that are arbitrarily input. Import to the system and store in the database.

Quantitative soundness evaluation and statistical useful life based on deterioration diagnosis prediction are calculated from the stored inspection / maintenance and monitoring data of equipment, and budget constraints are observed according to the risk level set for each equipment. We support the leveling of equipment renewal demand costs and the formulation of demand plans for appropriate renewal.

Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2009-169737 Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2014-016691

Until now, in order to fulfill accountability to the citizens regarding the soundness of management, we decided to make a plan for the next 10 years and refine it by accumulating the prospects of individual income and expenditure. I've been focusing on it.

However, the installation of equipment (water pipes, sewer pipes, etc.) has been completed, and in the future, as we enter the era of maintenance and renewal, we will adjust to the renewal period (40 to 50 years) of water pipes and sewer pipes. During such a long period of time, it is important to raise funds appropriately and prevent the depletion of funds.

Therefore, management of financial risks contrary to the sustainability of management, that is, financial management in asset management is required. Here, the biggest risk is the depletion of funds. The management of public enterprises is carried out in a cycle of improving social capital by borrowing long-term working capital, generating profits from the capital, increasing the amount of funds held, and repayment of the principal and profits of the borrowed money. It has been.

In other words, while profits are expected to decline due to population decline and facility renewal costs are expected to increase in the future, sustainable management will not be possible unless the risk of fund depletion is properly managed.

In view of the above problems, an object of the present invention is to provide a balance forecasting device, a balance forecasting program, and a balance forecasting method for more accurate management of financial risk in long-term asset management.

In order to solve the above problems, the balance forecasting device of the present invention is a balance forecasting device in which the base year for starting forecasting is N years and a plurality of items related to the balance are predicted up to M years including the N years. The settlement value for the period from N years to K years ago, the general plan value which is the general plan value for the period from L years (L <M) including the N years, and the N years are included. Forecasting is performed using a specific forecast value that requires specific processing for the period up to M years later, and a settlement value input unit in which the settlement value can be input and a general plan value in which the general plan value can be input. An input unit, a specific input value input unit capable of inputting a specific input value for predicting the specific predicted value, and a specific prediction that performs specific processing on the input specific input value to calculate a specific predicted value. Based on the regression line based on the value calculation unit and the settlement value, the general plan value, or the specific predicted value (however, if both the general plan value and the specific predicted value exist, the general plan value). The general plan value or the specific predicted value exists for each of the plurality of items for each year from the N year to the M year later, and the linear predicted value calculation unit for calculating the predicted linear predicted value. In the case, the period from the N years to the L years later is the general plan value or the specific predicted value (however, if both the general plan value and the specific predicted value exist, the general plan value). In addition to selecting, the period from the L year to the M year is the settlement value, the general plan value or the specific predicted value (provided that both the general plan value and the specific predicted value exist. Is calculated from the general plan value) by the straight line predicted value calculation unit based on the regression line (however, except when it is based only on the settlement value), the first straight line predicted value is selected, and the general plan value or If the specific predicted value does not exist, the second linear predicted value calculated by the linear predicted value calculation unit is selected based on the settlement value for the period from N years to M years later, and the specific predicted value is selected. If there is a value, the period from L years to M years later is a selection unit that selects the specific prediction value processed by the specific prediction value calculation unit, and a prediction selected by the selection unit. It is characterized by having an output unit that outputs a value as a prediction result.

According to this configuration, the selection unit can select the forecast value as the income and expenditure forecast from the general plan value, the specific forecast value, and the linear forecast value to obtain the forecast result. Of these, the general plan value is highly credible because it is already planned. In addition, since the specific predicted value is predicted by a specific process in the item to be predicted, it is as credible as the general plan value. Therefore, in the income and expenditure prediction device of the present invention, the selection unit selects a highly credible prediction value, so that a more accurate prediction value can be obtained.

Further, in the income and expenditure prediction device of the present invention, the specific predicted value calculation unit includes a reflection selection unit that can select whether or not to reflect the specific predicted value in the period from the L year to the M year. When the reflection selection unit selects to reflect, the selection unit selects the specific prediction value processed by the specific prediction value calculation unit and selects not to reflect it in the reflection selection unit. In this case, the second linear predicted value may be selected for the period from the L year to the M year.

According to this configuration, it is possible to compare the prediction results with and without reflecting the specific prediction value in the prediction result. Therefore, the influence of a specific item on the income and expenditure can be easily confirmed.

Further, in the income and expenditure prediction device of the present invention, the specific item value input unit may be provided on an input screen separate from the planned value input unit. According to this configuration, the input of the specific item value in the specific item input unit can be input on the dedicated screen instead of the screen for other input, so that the input is easy and the input of the specific item value is performed. It is difficult for mistakes to occur.

Further, in the income and expenditure prediction device of the present invention, the selection unit may be provided with a linear value selection unit capable of forcibly selecting either the first straight line prediction value or the second straight line prediction value. .. According to the configuration, the user determines whether or not to input the specific input value for calculating the general plan value or the specific predicted value in the period up to the L year including the N year. Since it becomes easy, mistakes are less likely to occur in the input of the general plan value or the specific input value.

Further, in the income and expenditure forecasting apparatus of the present invention, the output unit outputs a list of forecast results by year and a graph of cash holdings by year, and the graph needs to be displayed for each of the above items. Can be made selectable. According to this configuration, the person who makes the forecast can confirm the output of the graph for each item, so that the information on the balance can be confirmed at a glance.

Further, the income and expenditure forecasting program of the present invention makes the computer function as an income and expenditure forecasting device in which the base year for starting the forecast is N years and a plurality of items related to the income and expenditure are predicted up to M years including the N years. It ’s a program
The computer has a settlement value for the period from N years to K years ago, a general plan value which is a general plan value for a period after L years (L <M) including the N years, and the N. Forecasting is performed using a specific predicted value that requires specific processing for the period up to M years including the year, and the computer is used with a settlement value input unit capable of inputting the settlement value and the general plan value. A general plan value input unit that can input a specific input value, a specific input value input unit that can input a specific input value for predicting the specific predicted value, and a specific input value input that is specified by performing specific processing. A specific predicted value calculation unit that calculates a predicted value, and the settlement value, the general plan value, or the specific predicted value (however, if both the general plan value and the specific predicted value exist, the general plan value). The linear prediction value calculation unit that calculates the linear prediction value predicted based on the regression line based on the above, and for each year from the N year to the M year later, for each of the plurality of items, from the N year to the said For each year up to M years later, if the general plan value or the specific predicted value exists for each of the plurality of items, the period from N years to L years later is the general plan value or the above. A specific predicted value (however, the general planned value when both the general planned value and the specific predicted value exist) is selected, and the period from the L year to the M year is the settlement value. It was calculated by the linear prediction value calculation unit based on the regression line from the general plan value or the specific predicted value (however, if both the general plan value and the specific predicted value exist, the general plan value). (However, this does not apply when it is based only on the settlement value.) If the first linear forecast value is selected and the general plan value or the specific forecast value does not exist, the period from N years to M years later is The second linear predicted value calculated by the linear predicted value calculation unit is selected based on the settlement value, and when the specific predicted value exists, the period from the L year to the M year is It is characterized in that it functions as a selection unit that selects a specific prediction value processed by the specific prediction value calculation unit and an output unit that outputs the prediction value selected by the selection unit as a prediction result.

Similarly, the balance forecasting method of the present invention is a balance forecasting method in which the base year for starting forecasting is set to N years, and a plurality of items related to balance are forecasted up to M years including the N years. The computer has a settlement value for the period from N years to K years ago, a general plan value which is a general plan value for a period after L years (L <M) including the N years, and the N. Forecasting is performed using a specific forecast value that requires specific processing for the period up to M years including the year, and the settlement value input unit capable of inputting the settlement value and the general plan value can be input. A general plan value input unit, a specific input value input unit capable of inputting a specific input value for predicting the specific predicted value, and a specific processing performed on the input specific input value to calculate a specific predicted value. Return based on the specific predicted value calculation unit and the settlement value, the general plan value, or the specific predicted value (however, if both the general plan value and the specific predicted value exist, the general plan value). It has a linear prediction value calculation unit that calculates a linear prediction value predicted based on a straight line, and uses the computer to perform each of the plurality of items for each year from the N year to the M year later. When the general plan value or the specific predicted value exists, the period from the N year to the L year later is the general plan value or the specific predicted value (however, the general plan value and the specific predicted value). If both are present, the general plan value is selected, and the period from L year to M year is the settlement value, the general plan value, or the specific predicted value (however, the general plan value). When both the specific predicted value and the specific predicted value exist, the straight line predicted value calculation unit calculates the value from the general plan value) based on the regression line (excluding the case where only the settlement value is used). When a linear forecast value is selected and the general plan value or the specific forecast value does not exist, the period from the N year to the M year later is calculated by the linear forecast value calculation unit based on the settlement value. The second linear predicted value is selected, and if the specific predicted value exists, the specific predicted value processed by the specific predicted value calculation unit is selected during the period from the L year to the M year. ,
It is characterized in that the selected predicted value is output as a prediction result.

The explanatory view which shows the outline of the income and expenditure prediction apparatus in embodiment of this invention. (A) and (B) are schematic views showing the relationship between the input and the output in the income and expenditure prediction device of this embodiment. The explanatory view which shows the basic data input screen of the input part in the income and expenditure prediction apparatus of this embodiment. The explanatory view which shows a plurality of items about the balance in the balance prediction apparatus of this embodiment. The explanatory view which shows the data input screen of the specific prediction value of the income and expenditure prediction apparatus of this embodiment. The explanatory view which shows the outline of the processing of the income and expenditure prediction apparatus of this embodiment. The explanatory view which shows the linear prediction result by the linear prediction value calculation part in the balance prediction apparatus of this embodiment. The flowchart which shows the balance prediction method of the balance prediction apparatus 1 of this embodiment. (A) to (C) are explanatory views showing an example of a prediction result in the income and expenditure prediction device of this embodiment. An explanatory diagram showing an example in which only expenses are displayed among the prediction results of FIG. 9B.

Next, the balance prediction device 1, the balance prediction program, and the method, which are examples of the embodiments of the present invention, will be described with reference to FIGS. 1 to 10. FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram showing a functional configuration of a balance forecasting device according to an embodiment of the present invention. The income and expenditure prediction device 1 includes a settlement value input unit 2, a general plan value input unit 3, a specific input value input unit 4, a linear prediction value calculation unit 5, a specific prediction value calculation unit 6, a selection unit 7, and an output unit 8. ing. In the present embodiment, a water and sewage business is taken as an example as a business, and a device for predicting future profits in the water and sewage business will be described.

The income and expenditure prediction device 1 of the present embodiment is composed of a program that operates on a computer owned by the user, and the program can be downloaded from a server (not shown). The program may be an executable program or a spreadsheet-like program that operates on general spreadsheet software. In addition, the program may be distributed by a recording medium such as a CD ROM. Further, in the cloud server, the program may be operated on the computer owned by the user as a program managed by the operator.

With reference to FIG. 2, when the base year for starting forecasting is N years (N is an integer), the balance forecasting device 1 of the present embodiment is up to M years after including N years (M is an integer, for example, 50). It is a balance forecasting device that predicts the settlement value of the period from N years to K years ago (K is an integer, for example 5) and L years after including N years (L is an integer less than M, for example 10). ), And a specific forecast value that requires specific processing for the period up to M years including N years.

FIG. 2A shows an outline of the items to be entered in order to forecast the income and expenditure of the water and sewage business up to the next 50 years. In FIGS. 2A and 2B, the table represented by N-5 to N + 49 shows the year-specific input screen 30 described later from 5 years before to 49 years after the base year N. There is.

In FIG. 2, the general item indicates a general item in the income and expenditure, such as operating expenses, and is an item that does not require specific processing. The specific item is an item that requires specific processing in order to consider future population changes, such as toll income of water and sewage business.

In this embodiment, the base year for starting the forecast is the N year. As an item to be input by the user, there is a settlement value in the settlement value input area 10 (settlement value input unit 2) of FIG. 2A. The settlement value input area 10 inputs the settlement values up to 5 years before the base year N, that is, from N-1 to N-5. Since the base year N is usually the next year, the forecast value for financial results is usually entered in the N-1 year, which is the current year.

Further, the user inputs the planned value for the next 10 years including the N fiscal year into the general planned value input area 11 in FIG. 2 (A), as is performed in each local government. In the general plan value input area 11, a plan value that does not require specific processing is input.

Further, the user inputs a specific input value that requires specific processing for prediction in the specific item input area 12 as a predicted value in the specific item. In the specific item input area 12, based on the specific input value input by the specific input value input unit 4, the specific predicted value for the next 50 years including the N year is input.

In FIG. 2A, settlement values are input to the settlement value input area 10 for general items and specific items. Here, in the settlement value input area 10, even if it is a specific item, it has already been processed in the settlement and is described as a numerical value in the settlement report or the like, so that the user inputs the specific item as well as the general item. can do.

Further, in the first line of the general item in FIG. 2 (A), the planned value planned by the local government or the like is input in the area from N year to N + 9 year. On the other hand, since there is no plan or the like in the area from N + 10 to N + 49 of the bank, the user does not input.

Further, in the second line of the general item in FIG. 2 (A), the planned value is not entered in the area from N year to N + 9 year. This can happen if the municipality does not have a plan for the general item. As in the first line, there is no plan or the like in the area from N + 10 to N + 49 of the bank, so the user does not input.

Further, in the first line of the specific item in FIG. 2A, the specific predicted value calculation unit 6 is based on the specific input value input in the specific input value input unit 4 in the area from N year to N + 49 year. The calculated predicted value is input to the specific item input area 12.

Further, in the second line of the specific item in FIG. 2A, either the user has not input the specific input value, or the user has entered the specific input value input unit 4 and the reflection selection unit 41 (straight line value selection) described later. Part) selects not to reflect the specific predicted value as the predicted value, so that the predicted value is not reflected in the specific item input area 12.

FIG. 2B is a schematic diagram showing an image of a value output when the above input is performed. According to the income and expenditure forecasting device 1 of the present embodiment, when the above input is made, the selection unit 7 selects one line of the general item in FIG. 2 (A) from the first line of the general item in the N to N + 9 years. The planned value entered in the eyes is adopted as the predicted value as it is.

In addition, from N + 10 to N + 49 of the bank, the first linear prediction value calculated by the linear prediction value calculation unit 5 is selected by the selection unit 7 and adopted as the prediction value. This first straight line predicted value is a regression line based on the settlement value from N-1 to N-5 and the general plan value input from N to N + 9 by the straight line predicted value calculation unit 5. It is a linear predicted value predicted based on.

In the second line of the general item of FIG. 2 (B), since the planned value is not input in FIG. 2 (A), it is calculated by the linear prediction value calculation unit 5 in the region from N year to N + 49 year. The second linear predicted value is selected by the selection unit 7. This second straight line predicted value is a straight line predicted value predicted by the straight line predicted value calculation unit 5 based only on the settlement value from N-1 to N-5 based on the regression line.

In the first line of the specific item in FIG. 2 (B), since the predicted value is input to the specific item input area 12 in FIG. 2 (A), the specific predicted value is input in the area from N year to N + 49 year. The specific predicted value processed by the calculation unit 6 is selected by the selection unit 7.

In the second line of the specific item in FIG. 2 (B), whether the user has not input the specific input value in FIG. 2 (A) or the specific predicted value is reflected as the predicted value by the reflection selection unit 41 described later. Since the selection is made to prevent the selection, the selection unit 7 does not reflect the predicted value in the specific item input area 12.

At this time, in the region from N year to N + 49 year, the second straight line predicted value calculated by the straight line predicted value calculation unit 5 is selected by the selection unit 7. This second straight line predicted value is a straight line predicted value predicted by the straight line predicted value calculation unit 5 based only on the settlement value from N-1 to N-5 based on the regression line.

Next, the configuration of the screen in the income and expenditure prediction device 1 of the present embodiment will be described. In the balance prediction device 1, the basic data input screen 20 shown in FIG. 3, the yearly input screen 30 shown in FIG. 4, and the specific input value input shown in FIG. 5 (A) are displayed on the display screen of the computer used by the user. The corporate bond information input screen 40, which is a unit, the water charge input screen 50, which is also a specific input value input unit shown in FIG. 5 (B), and the construction cost, which is also a specific input value input unit shown in FIG. 5 (C). It has an input screen 60.

As shown in FIG. 3, the basic data input screen 20 includes a base year input unit 21 for inputting the first year N (usually the next year) for which the balance is to be predicted, and a basis for inputting the year to be the basic data for linear function prediction. A data input unit 22 and an initial cash holding amount input unit 23 for inputting the initial cash holding amount five years before the base year N are provided.

Further, the basic data input screen 20 is provided with a consumption tax rate setting unit 24 capable of setting various parameters for consumption tax calculation. For the parameter setting, a numerical value is input with reference to the tax-related diagram 25 such as the purchase tax amount shown below the consumption tax rate setting unit 24.

Further, the basic data input screen 20 is provided with a consumption tax rate input unit 26 for inputting a consumption tax rate from N-5 to N + 49, including the base year N. Here, for example, if it is clear from what year the consumption tax rate will be changed, the consumption tax rate to be changed from that year is input.

FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing an annual input screen 30 provided with a plurality of items related to the income and expenditure in the income and expenditure prediction device 1 of the present embodiment. The year-specific input screen 30 is provided with a year display 31 in which the year is displayed, a consumption tax display 32 in which the consumption tax for that year is displayed, and a settlement value input unit 2 for inputting or displaying settlement information. .. In the settlement value input unit 2, the settlement information such as the operating revenue of the water and sewage business, which is a profitable business, is input.

In addition to the yearly input screen 30, the linear predicted value display 34, the specific predicted value display 35, the planned value display 36, the adopted numerical value display 37 showing the value finally adopted from these predicted values, and which prediction Each display of the type 38 of the adopted numerical value indicating whether the value has been adopted is displayed. Of these displays, the planned value display 36 is an area that can be input depending on the year, and the linear predicted value display 34, the specific predicted value display 35, the adopted numerical value display 37, and the adopted numerical value type 38 are displayed. It is not possible to input only.

The year-specific input screen 30 includes the N year of the base year, which is the first year for which the income and expenditure is to be predicted, and a total of 55 sheets from the N-5 year to the N + 49 year are prepared. Here, on the year-specific input screen 30, the items that can be input are set to be different for each range of each year.

With reference to FIG. 2 (A), since only the settlement value is input from N-5 to N-1 year, the input screen for each year is entered from N-5 to N-1. In 30, only the settlement value input unit 2 can be input, and the other display units of the linear predicted value display 34 and the planned value display 36 are set so that they cannot be input.

Next, from the N fiscal year to the N + 9 fiscal year, on the annual input screen 30, each display unit of the settlement value input unit 2 and the linear forecast display 34 cannot be input. On the other hand, the display unit of the planned value display 36 is set so that the user can input a value.

Next, the specific input value input unit 4 in the income and expenditure prediction device 1 of the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. 5A to 5C. FIG. 5A shows an example of the corporate bond information input screen 40 for inputting corporate bond-related information regarding corporate bonds. FIG. 5B shows an example of a water charge input screen 50 for calculating a water charge obtained by a water supply business as a profitable business. FIG. 5C shows an example of the construction cost input screen 60 for inputting information on the construction cost, which is the cost for the construction of new equipment and the maintenance of existing equipment.

As shown in FIG. 5A, the corporate bond information input screen 40 is provided with a reflection selection unit 41, which is "whether or not the interest repayment amount is reflected in the input table for each fiscal year" and "principal repayment amount". Can be selected from "whether or not to reflect in the input table for each year" and "whether or not to reflect the borrowed amount in the input table for each year".

When the reflection selection unit 41 specifies that these items should be reflected, the selection unit 7 selects the specific prediction value processed by the specific prediction value calculation unit 6. On the other hand, when it is specified that these items are not reflected, the selection unit 7 does not select the specific prediction value processed by the specific prediction value calculation unit 6, but selects the second linear prediction value.

Further, as shown in FIG. 5A, the corporate bond information input screen 40 is provided with a base year display unit 42 and a display 43 for the year in which basic data for linear function prediction is acquired. A corporate bond information input unit 44 is provided below the corporate bond information input unit 44. In the corporate bond information input unit 44, clear information such as the borrowing date, the borrowing amount, the redemption start date, the number of deferments, the number of redemptions, and the interest rate is input so that it is not necessary to consider complicated conditions such as compound interest. Then it is possible to make a prediction.

When necessary information is entered on the corporate bond information input screen 40, the "principal repayment amount" and "interest repayment amount" are calculated by a calculation formula that takes into account conditions such as the number of redemptions and compound interest, and the corporate bond information. It is displayed on the display unit 45. Further, when the reflection selection unit 41 specifies that the "principal repayment amount" and the "interest repayment amount" are to be reflected, they are reflected as the data of the predetermined year on the year-specific input screen 30.

Next, the water charge input screen 50 will be described with reference to FIG. 5 (B). Also on the water charge input screen 50, the reflection selection unit 51 can select "whether or not to reflect in the input table of each year". Further, on the water charge input screen 50, a base year display unit 52 is provided, and below that, there is a water supply-related input unit 53 capable of inputting each item of population forecast, total water charge forecast, and charge revision count. .. Further, in the column of total water charge 54 below that, the total amount of water charge under the above conditions is calculated and displayed.

Next, the construction cost input screen 60 will be described with reference to FIG. 5 (C). The reflection selection unit 61 is also provided on the construction cost input screen 60. In addition, a base year display unit 62 is provided, and a year display 63 for acquiring basic data for linear function prediction is provided. Below that, a new construction cost input unit 64, which is a share of the construction cost for newly constructing, is provided. Further, below that, a renewal cost input unit 65 for inputting the renewal cost of the building is provided.

In the renewal cost input unit 65, the renewal cost to be generated in the future can be input in three patterns from case 1 to case 3. As a result, it is possible to input the amounts of a plurality of cases assumed for the renewal cost and switch the cases according to the situation.

In the present embodiment, the general plan value input unit 3 corresponds to the plan value display 36 of the year-specific input screen 30 from the N year to the N + 9 year in FIG. 2 (A) (see FIG. 3). A planned value such as a 10-year plan planned by each local government can be directly input to the planned value display 36.

The specific predicted value calculation unit 6 calculates the specific predicted value for the next 50 years for the specific processing item that requires specific processing among the plurality of items input to the yearly input screen 30 shown in FIG. Specifically, the user can use the corporate bond information input screen 40 shown in FIG. 5 (A), the water charge input screen 50 shown in FIG. 5 (B), and the construction cost input screen 60 shown in FIG. 5 (C). , Input long-term advance payment / depreciation related information and personnel cost related information related to labor costs on an input screen (not shown).

In this embodiment, the specific processing items are related to corporate bond-related information related to corporate bonds, profitable business charge-related information related to profitable business charges, construction cost-related information related to construction costs, and long-term advance payment / depreciation costs. Long-term advance payment / depreciation related information and personnel cost related information related to personnel costs.

The straight line predicted value calculation unit 5 calculates the straight line predicted value for the next 50 years based on the regression line from the settlement information and the like input to the year-specific input screen 30. Specifically, the first straight line forecast value that acquires the settlement information for multiple years, obtains the regression line from the tendency of the past balance, and predicts the future balance, and the second that predicts the future balance only from the settlement information. Two predicted values of linear predicted values are calculated.

The selection unit 7 confirms the presence / absence of the planned value and the presence / absence of the specific predicted value for each of the plurality of items input to the year-specific input screen 30, and outputs the predicted result. In the general items shown in FIG. 2B, from the N year to the N + 9 year, the planned value is selected when the planned value exists, and the specific predicted value exists when the planned value does not exist and the specific predicted value exists. Select a value. If neither the planned value nor the specific predicted value exists, the second straight line predicted value calculated by the straight line predicted value calculation unit 5 is selected.

Further, the selection unit 7 is calculated by the linear prediction value calculation unit 5 when the planned value exists in the general items N + 10 to N + 49 shown in FIG. 2B and from N to N + 9. 1 Select a linear prediction value. In the same area, if the planned value does not exist from the N year to the N + 9 year, the second straight line predicted value calculated by the straight line predicted value calculation unit 5 is selected.

Further, when the predicted value calculated by the specific predicted value calculation unit 6 is input to the specific item input area 12 from the N year to the N + 49 year of the specific item shown in FIG. Select a predicted value. On the other hand, if the user has not input a specific input value or the reflection selection unit 41 has selected not to reflect the specific prediction value as a prediction value, the selection unit uses the linear prediction value calculation unit 5. Select the calculated second linear predicted value.

The output unit 8 outputs one predicted value selected by the selection unit 7 as a prediction result to the future year-specific input screen 30 and the graphs shown in FIGS. 9A to 9C. Further, the output unit 8 outputs to a result list (reference numeral 71 in FIG. 6) summarizing each predicted value from the base year N to N + 49.

Next, with reference to FIG. 6, an outline of the processing of the income and expenditure prediction device 1 of the present embodiment will be described. First, the user inputs the settlement information on the yearly input screen 30 from the N-5 year to the N-1 year. At that time, if the settlement of accounts for the N-1 fiscal year is not finalized, enter the estimated value of the settlement of accounts.

If there is a planned value for the next 10 years, the user inputs the planned value in the field of the planned value display 36 on the yearly input screen 30 from the N year to the N + 9 year.

On the other hand, when the settlement information for N-5 to N-1 is input, the linear forecast value calculation unit 5 calculates the linear forecast value for N + 49 based on the regression line from the settlement information and fills in the corresponding column. Fill out. At this time, when the planned value or the specific predicted value is not input to the yearly input screen 30 from the N year to the N + 9 year, the straight line predicted value calculation unit 5 calculates the second straight line predicted value only from the settlement information. When the planned value or the specific predicted value is input to the yearly input screen 30 from the N year to the N + 9 year, the first straight line predicted value is calculated using the planned value or the specific predicted value as a parameter in addition to the settlement information. To do.

The linear predicted value by the linear predicted value calculation unit 5 has an image as shown in FIG. 7. The vertical axis of FIG. 7 is the amount of each item, and the horizontal axis shows each year from N-5 to N + 49. The part surrounded by a circle in FIG. 7 is the value of the settlement information from the N-5 year to the N-1 year and the value of the planned value from the N year to the N + 9 year, and the amount varies from year to year. The linear prediction value calculation unit 5 calculates the linear prediction values from N + 10 to N + 49 from the amounts of these years and graphs them.

Since the linear prediction value calculation unit 5 performs the above processing, the rate of increase (slope of the graph) in each year from N + 10 to N + 49 differs depending on the calculation result, and the slope is positive (slope of the graph). Not only in the case of rising to the right, but also in the case of minus (falling to the right).

When the planned value display 36, the specific predicted value display 35, and the linear predicted value display 34 are calculated in this way, as shown in FIG. 6, each value is displayed on the yearly input screen 30 from the N year to the N + 49 year. It will be reflected. Here, A, B, and C are exemplified as items in the year-specific input screen 30 of the Nth year of FIG.

In item A, the planned value display 36 and the linear predicted value display 34 are recorded. In item B, the specific predicted value display 35 and the linear predicted value display 34 are recorded. In item C, only the linear predicted value display 34 is recorded. In such a situation, the selection unit 7 shown in FIG. 1 sets the item A as the planned value, the item B as the specific predicted value, and the item C as the linear predicted value as the adopted numerical display 37 of each item. A selection is made.

The above processing is reflected not only in the N year but also in the yearly input screens 30 from N + 1 to N + 49, and the selection unit 7 selects the predicted value according to the predicted value recorded in each item.

When the above processing is performed, the output unit 8 shown in FIG. 1 outputs the calculated predicted value to the list 71 of the forecast results for each year as shown in FIG. Further, the output unit 8 uses the predicted value of the annual forecast result and the amount of the initial cash holding amount input unit 23 input on the basic data input screen 20, and the graph 72 of the annual cash holding amount shown in FIG. To create.

Next, the balance prediction method by the balance prediction device 1 of the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. 8 to 10. FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing a balance prediction method of the balance prediction device 1 of the present embodiment. 9 (A) to 9 (C) are explanatory views showing an example of a prediction result in the income and expenditure prediction device 1 of the present embodiment. FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram showing an example in which only the expenses are displayed among the prediction results of FIG. 9B.

When forecasting the income and expenditure for the next 50 years in the water and sewage business, the user launches a program for forming the income and expenditure forecasting device 1 of the present embodiment on a computer and makes necessary preparations. As the preparatory work, the basic data input screen 20 shown in FIG. 3 is displayed on the computer, the base year N for starting the prediction is input to the base year input unit 21, and the start of the period that becomes the basic data for the linear function prediction is set. The final year is input to the basic data input unit 22. In addition, the initial cash holding amount 5 years before the base year N is input to the initial cash holding amount input unit 23. Further, the consumption tax rate data is input in each year of the consumption tax rate setting unit 24.

After the above preparation is completed, the user calls the yearly input screen 30 shown in FIG. 4 and displays it on the computer. The settlement information is input from the information 5 years before the forecasted fiscal year N. Specifically, the screen of the year-specific input screen 30 of the year to be input is displayed, and necessary information such as the profit balance is input. This input work is performed from N-5 year to N-1 year (this year). The program of the income and expenditure forecasting device 1 receives the input of the settlement information from this user by the settlement value input unit 2 (S1).

Next, the user inputs the plan information for the next 10 years, and the program of the balance forecasting device 1 receives the input of the plan information from this user by the general plan value input unit 3 (S2). This plan information will be provided from the forecasting year N to the year N + 9. Specifically, the plan information planned in each local government to which the user belongs is input to the yearly input screen 30 shown in FIG. On the yearly input screen 30, the amount of money is input for the item with the plan in the input field of the planned value display 36.

Next, the user inputs information for calculating the specific prediction value using each of the input screens of FIGS. 5A to 5C, which are input screens for specific prediction. The program of the income and expenditure prediction device 1 receives the input of the specific processing item from this user by the specific input value input unit 4 (S3).

For example, since there are many items related to corporate bonds to be considered, the input work usually needs to be performed by a skilled person in charge, but in the balance forecasting device 1 of the present embodiment, FIG. 5 (A) shows. On the corporate bond information input screen 40 shown, prediction can be made by inputting clear information such as the borrowing date, the borrowing amount, the redemption start date, the number of deferments, the number of redemptions, and the interest rate.

Similarly, on the water charge input screen 50 shown in FIG. 5 (B), the user inputs the population forecast, the total water charge forecast, and the water-related input unit 53 of the charge revision count to forecast the water charge in each year. It can be performed. In addition, on the construction cost input screen 60, the amount of the construction cost, the case of the renewal cost, and the like are selected, and the information about the construction cost is input. In addition, the same input is made for other long-term advance payment / depreciation expense related information, long-term advance payment reversal, personnel expenses, etc.

Next, in the program of the income and expenditure prediction device 1 of the present embodiment, the specific prediction value calculation unit 6 calculates the specific prediction value for the next 50 years (S4). Since the calculation of the specific predicted value is performed by the calculation formula incorporated in the income and expenditure prediction device 1, the user can calculate the complicated specific predicted value simply by inputting the obvious matters in each item. it can.

Next, the straight line predicted value calculation unit 5 calculates a straight line predicted value (second straight line predicted value) for each item at least based on the input settlement value (S5). In addition, when not only the settlement value but also the general plan value or the specific forecast value is input in each item, the general plan value or the specific forecast value is also used as a parameter in addition to the settlement value as the linear forecast value (first linear forecast value). ) Is calculated.

Next, the selection unit 7 initializes the variable i indicating the number of times when the predicted value is selected with 1. (S6). The selection unit 7 determines whether or not the planned value exists on the yearly input screen 30 of N = i (S7). If it is determined that the planned value exists (YES in S7), the selection unit 7 selects the planned value (S8) and proceeds to S12.

When it is determined in S7 that the planned value does not exist (NO in S7), the selection unit 7 determines whether or not the specific predicted value exists on the yearly input screen 30 of N = i (S9). When it is determined that the specific predicted value exists (YES in S9), the selection unit 7 selects the specific predicted value (S10) and proceeds to S12.

When it is determined in S9 that the specific predicted value does not exist (NO in S9), the selection unit 7 selects the linear predicted value in the year-specific table of N = i (S11).

When the variable i indicating the number of times is 50 or less (NO in S12), the selection unit 7 adds the count 1 to the variable i (S13), and returns to the process of S7. While the variable i is 50 or less, the processes of S7 to S13 are repeated.

When it is determined in S11 that the variable i indicating the number of times of selection exceeds 50, the output unit 8 outputs the forecast result by year (list of forecast results by year 71, cash holding amount by year) based on the selected forecast value. Graph 72, etc.) is displayed (S14).

The results calculated by the above processing are shown in FIGS. 9A to 9C and FIG. FIG. 9A is a graph showing the amount of cash held at the end of the fiscal year from N to N + 49. In this graph, the cash holding amount for each year is calculated from the initial cash holding amount input on the basic data input screen 20 shown in FIG. 2 and the income and expenditure calculated for each year.

FIG. 9B is a graph showing the profit balance in the water supply business. Each item is described on the right side of the graph, and the graph is the sum of the amounts of each item in each year. By displaying such a graph showing the income and expenditure for the years N to N + 49, the income and expenditure for 50 years as a whole can be grasped at a glance. In addition, regarding the increase or decrease in the amount of money, by paying attention to each item, it is possible to identify problems for improving the income and expenditure.

Here, FIG. 10 displays only the expenses among the forecast results of FIG. 9 (B) for the profit balance. In this way, by selecting and displaying the necessary items in the graph showing the profit balance, it is possible to check the transition of the amount of money according to each item, so it is necessary to identify the problems of the balance. Can be done.

FIG. 9C is a graph showing the capital balance in the water supply business. In this capital balance, it is possible to check the amount of money for each year and the transition of the amount of money for 50 years for items such as construction costs.

As described above, the balance forecasting device, the balance forecasting program, and the balance forecasting method of the present invention enable more accurate management of financial risk in long-term asset management.

In the above embodiment, the settlement information is set to 5 years, the plan information is set to 10 years, and the predicted value is set to 50 years, but these periods can be changed as necessary.

1 ... Balance forecasting device, ... Settlement value input unit, 3 ... General plan value input unit, 4 ... Specific input value input unit, 5 ... Linear prediction value calculation unit, 5 ... Specific prediction input screen diagram, 6 ... Specific processing unit , 7 ... Specific predicted value calculation unit, 8 ... Selection unit, 9 ... Output unit, 10 ... Settlement value input area, 11 ... General plan value input area, 12 ... Specific item input area, 21 ... Base year input unit, 34 ... Straight line predicted value display, 35 ... Specific predicted value display, 36 ... Planned value display, 37 ... Employment item, 40 ... Corporate bond information input screen, 41 ... Reflection selection unit (straight value selection part), 50 ... Water charge input screen, 60 ... Construction cost input screen.

Claims (7)

It is a balance forecasting device that forecasts a plurality of items related to the balance up to M years including the N years, with the base year of the forecast start as N years.
The settlement value for the period from N years to K years ago, the general plan value which is the general plan value for the period up to L years (L <M) including the N years, and the M including the N years. Forecasts are made using specific forecast values that require specific processing for the period up to a year later.
A settlement value input unit that allows you to enter the settlement value,
A general plan value input unit capable of inputting the general plan value and
A specific input value input unit capable of inputting a specific input value for predicting the specific predicted value,
A specific predicted value calculation unit that calculates a specific predicted value by performing specific processing on the input specific input value,
A straight line predicted based on a regression line based on the settlement value, the general plan value or the specific predicted value (however, if both the general plan value and the specific predicted value exist, the general plan value). A linear predicted value calculation unit that calculates the predicted value, and
For each year from the N year to the M year later, for each of the plurality of items,
When the general plan value or the specific predicted value exists, the period from the N year to the L year later is the general plan value or the specific predicted value (however, the general plan value and the specific predicted value). If both exist, select the above general plan value) and select
The period from the L year to the M year is the settlement value, the general plan value, or the specific predicted value (however, if both the general plan value and the specific predicted value exist, the general plan value). ) To the first straight line predicted value calculated by the straight line predicted value calculation unit based on the regression line (except when based only on the settlement value).
If the general plan value or the specific predicted value does not exist, the second straight line predicted value calculated by the straight line predicted value calculation unit is selected based on the settlement value for the period from N years to M years later. And
When the specific predicted value exists, the period from the L year to the M year later includes a selection unit that selects the specific predicted value processed by the specific predicted value calculation unit and a selection unit.
A balance forecasting device including an output unit that outputs a predicted value selected by the selection unit as a prediction result. The income and expenditure forecasting device according to claim 1.
The specific predicted value calculation unit includes a reflection selection unit that can select whether or not to reflect the specific predicted value in the period from the L year to the M year.
When the reflection selection unit selects to reflect, the selection unit selects the specific prediction value processed by the specific prediction value calculation unit.
An income and expenditure prediction device, characterized in that, when the reflection selection unit selects not to reflect, the second linear prediction value is selected for the period from the L year to the M year. The income and expenditure forecasting device according to claim 1 or 2.
An income and expenditure forecasting device characterized in that the specific input value input unit is provided on an input screen separate from the general plan value input unit. The income and expenditure forecasting device according to any one of claims 1 to 3.
An income and expenditure prediction device characterized in that the selection unit is provided with a linear value selection unit capable of forcibly selecting either the first straight line prediction value or the second straight line prediction value. The income and expenditure forecasting device according to any one of claims 1 to 4.
The output unit outputs a list and graphs of the forecast results for each year.
The graph is a balance forecasting device characterized in that the necessity of display can be selected for each of the items. A balance forecasting program that allows a computer to function as a balance forecaster that forecasts a plurality of items related to balance up to M years including the N years, with the base year of forecast start as N years.
The computer has a settlement value for the period from N years to K years ago, a general plan value which is a general plan value for a period after L years (L <M) including the N years, and the N. Forecasts are made using specific predicted values that require specific processing for the period up to M years after the year including the year.
The computer
A settlement value input unit that allows you to enter the settlement value,
A general plan value input unit capable of inputting the general plan value and
A specific input value input unit capable of inputting a specific input value for predicting the specific predicted value,
A specific predicted value calculation unit that calculates a specific predicted value by performing specific processing on the input specific input value,
A straight line predicted based on a regression line based on the settlement value, the general plan value or the specific predicted value (however, if both the general plan value and the specific predicted value exist, the general plan value). A linear predicted value calculation unit that calculates the predicted value, and
For each year from the N year to the M year later, for each of the plurality of items,
For each year from the N year to the M year later, for each of the plurality of items,
When the general plan value or the specific predicted value exists, the period from the N year to the L year later is the general plan value or the specific predicted value (however, the general plan value and the specific predicted value). If both exist, select the above general plan value) and select
The period from the L year to the M year is the settlement value, the general plan value, or the specific predicted value (however, if both the general plan value and the specific predicted value exist, the general plan value). ) To the first straight line predicted value calculated by the straight line predicted value calculation unit based on the regression line (except when based only on the settlement value).
If the general plan value or the specific predicted value does not exist, the second straight line predicted value calculated by the straight line predicted value calculation unit is selected based on the settlement value for the period from N years to M years later. And
When the specific predicted value exists, the period from the L year to the M year later includes a selection unit that selects the specific predicted value processed by the specific predicted value calculation unit and a selection unit.
A balance prediction program characterized in that it functions as an output unit that outputs a prediction value selected by the selection unit as a prediction result. It is a balance forecasting method that uses a computer to set the base year for forecasting to N years and forecasts a plurality of items related to the balance up to M years including the N years.
The computer has a settlement value for the period from N years to K years ago, a general plan value which is a general plan value for a period after L years (L <M) including the N years, and the N. Forecasting is performed using a specific forecast value that requires specific processing for the period up to M years including the year, and the settlement value input unit capable of inputting the settlement value and the general plan value can be input. A general plan value input unit, a specific input value input unit capable of inputting a specific input value for predicting the specific predicted value, and a specific processing performed on the input specific input value to calculate a specific predicted value. Return based on the specific predicted value calculation unit and the settlement value, the general plan value, or the specific predicted value (however, if both the general plan value and the specific predicted value exist, the general plan value). It has a linear prediction value calculation unit that calculates the linear prediction value predicted based on the straight line.
By the computer
For each year from the N year to the M year later, for each of the plurality of items,
When the general plan value or the specific predicted value exists, the period from the N year to the L year later is the general plan value or the specific predicted value (however, the general plan value and the specific predicted value). If both exist, select the above general plan value) and select
The period from the L year to the M year is the settlement value, the general plan value, or the specific predicted value (however, if both the general plan value and the specific predicted value exist, the general plan value). ) To the first straight line predicted value calculated by the straight line predicted value calculation unit based on the regression line (except when based only on the settlement value).
If the general plan value or the specific predicted value does not exist, the second straight line predicted value calculated by the straight line predicted value calculation unit is selected based on the settlement value for the period from N years to M years later. And
When the specific predicted value exists, the specific predicted value processed by the specific predicted value calculation unit is selected for the period from the L year to the M year later.
A balance forecasting method characterized by outputting the selected forecast value as a forecast result.

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