JP2020120450A - Output prediction system for power generation facility and output prediction method for power generation facility - Google Patents

Abstract

To suppress deterioration of calculation accuracy of an assumed tidal current.SOLUTION: An output prediction system 1 includes: a measurement value acquisition unit 20 for acquiring a system output measurement value, which is a measurement value of an output of a power generation facility of one system and an area output measurement value, which is a measurement value of an output of power generation facilities in an entire area at the same time as a time when the system output measurement value is measured; a system evaluation value calculation unit 22 for calculating a system output set value preset as a set value of the output of the power generation facility in the system and a system evaluation value indicating a degree of deviation between the output set value and the measured value in the system based on a difference from the system output measurement value; and an area output prediction value calculation unit 24 for calculating an area output prediction value, which is a predicted value of the output of the power generation facilities in the entire area based on the area output measurement value and the system evaluation value.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

The present invention relates to an output prediction system for power generation equipment and an output prediction method for power generation equipment in an entire area under tidal current assumption.

In the electric power system, if the amount of electric power that passes through the electric power facility, that is, the tidal current becomes too large, congestion may occur and appropriate power transmission may not be possible. Therefore, the assumed power flow may be calculated as the assumed power flow, and the connected power supply facility may be selected so that the assumed power flow does not become too large. Assumed power flow is calculated based on power demand and power supply, and when the power supply side considers an excessive individual power system, it is generally assumed that power supply becomes maximum when power demand becomes minimum. Is calculated. That is, when the power demand is the minimum but the power supply is the maximum, the power flow flowing toward the upper power system increases, and therefore the assumed power flow is calculated in anticipation of the case where such power flow increases. ..

Further, Non-Patent Document 1 describes a method for calculating an assumed power flow, and describes that the power demand for the assumed power flow is calculated based on the actual output values of various power supply facilities. In Non-Patent Document 1, when the output of the photovoltaic power generation equipment in the individual system is the maximum, the minimum output of the photovoltaic power generation equipment in the entire area is calculated, and the calculated output of the photovoltaic power generation equipment in the entire area is calculated. The output is taken as the amount of power demand that the photovoltaic power generation facility should meet. More specifically, when the horizontal axis is the output ratio of the individual system and the vertical axis is the output ratio of the entire area, the lower limit of the distribution is set for the distribution of the output ratio value of the entire area to the output ratio value of the individual system. A linear approximation line of is derived. Then, the intersection of the maximum value of the output ratio of the individual system and the first-order approximation straight line is calculated as the output of the photovoltaic power generation facility in the entire area.

"Regarding the concept of rationalization of assumed power flow as a precondition (article 62 of the business guidelines for power transmission and distribution) in the study of power supply connection and facility formation"

According to Non-Patent Document 1, the expected power flow can be calculated based on the output of the photovoltaic power generation facilities in the entire area, but there is room for improvement in order to increase the calculation accuracy of the assumed power flow. That is, when calculated as in Non-Patent Document 1, the output of the power generation equipment in the entire area may be overestimated or underestimated.

An object of the present invention is to provide an output prediction system for a power generation facility and an output prediction method for a power generation facility that suppress a decrease in the accuracy of calculation of expected power flow in order to solve the above problems.

In order to solve the above-mentioned problems and achieve the object, an output prediction system of a power generation facility of the present disclosure calculates a predicted value of the output of the power generation facility in an area where a plurality of grids to which the power generation facility is connected is provided. An output prediction system for a power generation facility, wherein a system output measurement value that is a measurement value of the output of the power generation facility of one of the systems, and the entire area at the same time as the time at which the system output measurement value was measured An area output measurement value, which is a measurement value of the output of the power generation equipment, and a measurement value acquisition unit, a grid output preset value preset as a setting value of the output of the power generation equipment in the grid, and the grid output measurement Based on the difference between the value, based on the system evaluation value calculation unit that calculates a system evaluation value indicating the degree of deviation between the output setting value and the measured value in the system, and the area output measurement value and the system evaluation value, An area output predicted value calculation unit that calculates an area output predicted value that is a predicted value of the output of the power generation equipment for the entire area.

The area output predicted value calculation unit is an area evaluation value that is a value based on the area output predicted value and the area output measured value, and indicates the degree of deviation between the predicted value of the output in the area and the measured value, and the systematic evaluation. The area output predicted value is preferably calculated so that the value and the value have a predetermined relationship.

The area output predicted value calculation unit converts the area evaluation value into a value indicating a degree of deviation between the predicted value of the output in the system and the measured value, and a difference between the system evaluation value is predetermined. It is preferable to calculate the area output predicted value so as to be a value.

The measurement value acquisition unit acquires a plurality of the system output measurement value and the area output measurement value, the system evaluation value calculation unit calculates the system evaluation value for each system output measurement value, the area output prediction The value calculation unit calculates a plurality of the area output prediction values for which the difference between the conversion system evaluation value and the system evaluation value is the predetermined value, for each area output measurement value, and to calculate a plurality of the area output prediction values. It is preferable to select the minimum value as the area output predicted value.

It is preferable that the system evaluation value calculation unit sets a maximum value of the plurality of system output measurement values as the system output set value.

It is preferable to further include a determination unit that determines whether or not additional power generation equipment can be connected to the area based on the area output predicted value.

The power generation facility is preferably a photovoltaic power generation facility or a wind power generation facility.

In order to solve the above-mentioned problems and achieve the object, the output prediction method of the power generation facility of the present disclosure calculates a predicted value of the output of the power generation facility in an area where a plurality of grids to which the power generation facility is connected is provided. A method of predicting the output of a power generation facility, wherein a system output measurement value that is a measurement value of the output of the power generation facility of one of the systems, and the entire area at the same time as the time when the system output measurement value was measured An area output measurement value that is a measurement value of the output of the power generation equipment, a measurement value acquisition step of acquiring, a grid output set value set as a set value of the output of the power generation equipment in the grid, and the grid output measurement value Based on the difference between, the system evaluation value calculation step of calculating a system evaluation value indicating the degree of deviation between the set value of the output and the measured value in the system, based on the area output measurement value and the system evaluation value, the And an area output predicted value calculating step of calculating an area output predicted value which is a predicted value of the output of the power generation equipment for the entire area.

ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, the fall of the calculation precision of the assumption power flow of a power generation equipment can be suppressed.

FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating a system according to this embodiment. FIG. 2 is a schematic block diagram of the output prediction system according to this embodiment. FIG. 3 is a graph showing an example of the distribution of measured values. FIG. 4 is a graph for explaining the system evaluation value. FIG. 5 is a graph for explaining the calculation of the area output predicted value. FIG. 6 is a graph for explaining calculation of the area output predicted value. FIG. 7 is a graph illustrating an example of the area output predicted value. FIG. 8 is a flowchart illustrating the processing flow of the output prediction system according to this embodiment.

Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be noted that the present invention is not limited to this embodiment, and when there are a plurality of embodiments, the present invention also includes those configured by combining the embodiments.

FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating a system according to this embodiment. As shown in FIG. 1, a plurality of systems S are provided in the area R according to this embodiment. The system S is a power system in which a power generation facility and a load are connected via a power transmission line W. In the present embodiment, the power generation equipment P and the loads L are connected to the grid S, and more specifically, the plurality of power generation equipment P and the loads L are connected to one grid S. However, the number of power generation facilities P connected to one system S is arbitrary. The power generation facility P may generate power with an arbitrary power, but in the present embodiment, it is preferable that the power generation facility whose output (power generation amount) varies depending on weather conditions. The power generation facility P is a photovoltaic power generation facility in this embodiment. However, the power generation facility P may be, for example, a wind power generation facility. The power generation facility P may be a combination of a plurality of power generation facilities (a plurality of power generation facilities whose output varies depending on weather conditions), for example, a facility in which a solar power generation facility and a wind power generation facility are combined. May be. Further, power generation equipment other than the power generation equipment P, such as thermal power generation equipment, may be connected to the system S. Further, the number of power generation facilities P and loads L, the number of power generation facilities other than the power generation facilities P, and the like may differ for each system S.

A plurality of such systems S are provided in the area R. That is, the area R can be rephrased as a system group including a plurality of systems S. Moreover, the area R can also be said to be an area in which one general power transmission and distribution company is in charge of power transmission and distribution, for example. In the example of FIG. 1, eight systems S are provided in the area R, but the number of systems S provided in the area R is not limited to eight as long as it is plural, and is arbitrary. Further, in the example of FIG. 1, the system S is provided in a loop shape in the area R, but the form in which the system S is provided in the area R is not limited to this. For example, the system S may be provided radially in the area R.

FIG. 2 is a schematic block diagram of the output prediction system according to this embodiment. The output prediction system 1 according to the present embodiment is a system that calculates a predicted value of the output of the power generation facility P in the area R in order to calculate the expected power flow in the area R. The output prediction system 1 according to this embodiment is, for example, a computer. As shown in FIG. 2, the output prediction system 1 includes an input unit 10, an output unit 12, a communication unit 14, a storage unit 16, and a control unit 18. The input unit 10 is a device that receives user input, and is, for example, a mouse, a keyboard, a touch panel, or the like. The output unit 12 is a device that outputs various information such as the control result of the control unit 18, and is a display unit such as a display or a touch panel that displays various information in the present embodiment. The communication unit 14 is a mechanism that communicates with external devices such as a wireless communication module and an antenna. The storage unit 16 is a memory that stores the calculation contents of the control unit 18 and program information, and is, for example, an external unit such as a RAM (Random Access Memory), a ROM (Read Only Memory), or an HDD (Hard Disk Drive). At least one of the storage device is included.

The control unit 18 is an arithmetic device, that is, a CPU (Central Processing Unit). As shown in FIG. 2, the control unit 18 includes a measurement value acquisition unit 20, a system evaluation value calculation unit 22, an area output predicted value calculation unit 24, and a determination unit 26. The measurement value acquisition unit 20, the system evaluation value calculation unit 22, the area output predicted value calculation unit 24, and the determination unit 26 are realized by the control unit 18 reading the software (program) stored in the storage unit 16. Then, the processing described later is executed.

The control unit 18 uses the measurement value acquisition unit 20, the system evaluation value calculation unit 22, and the area output predicted value calculation unit 24 to calculate the area output predicted value AR that is the predicted value of the output of the power generation facility P in the area R. Hereinafter, a method of calculating the area output predicted value AR will be described.

The measurement value acquisition unit 20 acquires the system output measurement value DS and the area output measurement value DR. The measurement value acquisition unit 20 acquires the system output measurement value DS and the area output measurement value DR from an external device via, for example, the communication unit 14. Further, the measurement value acquisition unit 20 may read the system output measurement value DS and the area output measurement value DR that are stored in advance in the storage unit 16, for example.

The system output measurement value DS is a measurement value of the output of the power generation facility P connected to one system S in the area R. The system output measurement value DS is a measurement value measured at a predetermined time in the past. In the present embodiment, the system output measurement value DS is the output ratio of the power generation equipment P connected to one system S. In other words, the system output measurement value DS is the total value of the maximum output (maximum capacity) of all the power generation facilities P connected to the system S at the measured time, and all the power generation facilities connected to the system S. P is the ratio of the total value of the output values (power values) actually output at a predetermined time. The area output measurement value DR is a measurement value of the output of the power generation facility P in the area R. The area output measurement value DR is a measurement value measured at a predetermined time in the past. In the present embodiment, the area output measurement value DR is the output ratio of the power generation equipment P provided in the area R. In other words, the area output measured value DR is the total value of the maximum output (maximum capacity) of all the power generation equipments P provided in the area R at the measured time, and all the power generation equipments provided in the area R. P is the ratio of the total value of the output values (power values) actually output at a predetermined time.

In the present embodiment, the measurement value acquisition unit 20 acquires the system output measurement value DS and the area output measurement value DR measured at the same time. That is, the measurement value acquisition unit 20 acquires the system output measurement value DS and the area output measurement value DR measured at the same time as the system output measurement value DS was measured. This makes it possible to recognize the relationship between the output ratio of the power generation equipment P in the grid S and the output ratio of the power generation equipment P in the entire area R. Hereinafter, when the system output measurement value DS and the area output measurement value DR measured at the same time are collectively expressed, they are referred to as the measurement value D. It can be said that the measurement value D is information in which the system output measurement value DS and the area output measurement value DR measured at the same time are associated with each other.

FIG. 3 is a graph showing an example of the distribution of measured values. The horizontal axis of FIG. 3 is the system output measurement value DS, and the vertical axis is the area output measurement value DR. As shown in FIG. 3, the measurement value acquisition unit 20 acquires a plurality of measurement values D, that is, a system output measurement value DS and an area output measurement value DR measured at the same time. The measured values D acquired by the measured value acquisition unit 20 are measured at different times. That is, it can be said that the measurement value acquisition unit 20 acquires the distribution of the measurement value D (system output measurement value DS and area output measurement value DR) at each time. As shown in FIG. 3, the system output measurement value DS and the area output measurement value DR tend to be proportional. That is, when the output of one system S is high, the output of the entire area R tends to be high. The measured value acquisition unit 20 acquires the plurality of system output measured values DS when calculating the area output predicted value AR is the output ratio of the power generation facility P in the same system S. Also in the following, when it is described as a system S, it refers to the same system S unless otherwise specified.

FIG. 4 is a graph for explaining the system evaluation value. The system evaluation value calculation unit 22 illustrated in FIG. 2 acquires the system output measurement value DS and the system output set value AS acquired by the measurement value acquisition unit 20. The system output set value AS is a value set by the system evaluation value calculation unit 22 as a set value of the output of the power generation facility P in the system S. That is, the system output set value AS is a value set for one system S by the system evaluation value calculation unit 22. As shown in FIG. 4, in the present embodiment, the system evaluation value calculation unit 22 sets the system output set value AS based on the maximum value of the plurality of system output measurement values DS acquired by the measurement value acquisition unit 20. Set. Furthermore, the system evaluation value calculation unit 22 sets the maximum value of the system output measurement values DS acquired by the measurement value acquisition unit 20 as the system output set value AS.

It can be said that the grid output set value AS is a value set as the output of the power generation facility P in the grid S in order to calculate the expected power flow in the area R. However, since the assumed power flow in the area R is calculated by predicting future values, the system output setting value AS is a value that is a future value, that is, a predicted value, which is set in advance as a setting value. Can be said. In addition, in the present embodiment, the assumed power flow is calculated in order to make a risk determination as to whether or not power cannot be properly transmitted. Therefore, in the present embodiment, the assumed power flow is calculated assuming that the power demand of the entire area R is small and the power supply from the power generation facility P of one grid S is large. Therefore, in this embodiment, the system output set value AS is set to the maximum value of the system output measurement value DS, that is, the maximum value of the actual result, in order to highly estimate the power supply.

The system evaluation value calculation unit 22 thus acquires the system output measurement value DS and the system output set value AS. Then, the system evaluation value calculation unit 22 calculates the system evaluation value TS based on the difference between the system output measurement value DS and the system output set value AS. The system evaluation value TS is a value indicating the degree of deviation between the set value of the power generation facility P output and the measured value in the system S. In the present embodiment, the system evaluation value calculation unit 22 calculates the system evaluation value TS by the following equation (1).

TS=VS·(AS-DS) (1)

Here, VS is the total value of the maximum outputs (maximum capacities) of all the power generation facilities P connected to the grid S. The system evaluation value calculation unit 22 acquires the value of the maximum output VS by, for example, communication via the communication unit 14 or reading from the storage unit 16. It can be said that the system evaluation value calculation unit 22 calculates the system evaluation value TS by multiplying the maximum output VS of the system S by a value obtained by subtracting the system output measurement value DS from the system output set value AS. Therefore, in the system evaluation value TS, in one system S, the power generation facility P is operated at the system output measurement value DS from the output value (electric power value) when the power generation facility P is operated at the system output set value AS. It can be said to be a value obtained by subtracting the output value (power value) at that time. The system evaluation value calculation unit 22 calculates a system evaluation value TS for each of the plurality of system output measurement values DS.

Since the system evaluation value TS is a value calculated in this way, it can be said that it is a value that evaluates whether the output ratio of the power generation equipment P of the system S in the future will be larger than the system output set value AS. For example, when the system evaluation value TS is 0 or more, it can be said that even in the future, the output ratio of the power generation equipment P of the system S is less likely to be larger than the system output set value AS. In other words, in this case, in the system S, the possibility that power larger than the system output set value AS is supplied is reduced. On the other hand, when the system evaluation value TS is smaller than 0, it can be said that the output ratio of the power generation equipment P of the system S may be larger than the system output set value AS in the future. In other words, in this case, the possibility that power larger than the system output set value AS is supplied to the system S is higher than the case where the system evaluation value TS is 0 or more.

In the present embodiment, the system output set value AS is the maximum value of the system output measured value DS, so the system evaluation value TS is a value of 0 or more. Therefore, it can be said that the system output set value AS is set on the safe side in consideration of the maximum output of the power generation facility P in the system S. In other words, the system evaluation value calculation unit 22 supplies the power so that the output ratio of the power generation equipment P of the system S in the future is less likely to be larger than the system output set value AS, that is, larger than the system output set value AS. It can be said that the system output set value AS is set so that the possibility of being damaged is reduced.

The area output predicted value calculation unit 24 shown in FIG. 2 calculates an area output predicted value AR that is a predicted value of the output of the power generation facility P in the area R based on the system evaluation value TS and the area output measured value DR.

Hereinafter, for convenience, the area output predicted value AR will be described assuming that the area output predicted value AR0 is a predetermined value. FIG. 5 is a graph for explaining the calculation of the area output predicted value. The area output predicted value AR is used to calculate the expected power flow in the area R as described above. In other words, the area output predicted value AR is calculated as the value of the power demand of the area R used to calculate the assumed power flow, in other words, as the amount of power supply that the power generation facility P of the area R should be responsible for. Therefore, the area output predicted value AR is set on the assumption that the power demand is small, that is, the output of the entire power generation equipment P in the area R is small. Therefore, when the area output predicted value AR0 is smaller than the area output measured value DR, that is, when the area output measured value DR is above the area output predicted value AR0 in FIG. It can be said that the setting is on the safe side, which is smaller than the area output measurement value DR that is the actual value of the output. In other words, in this case, the power demand in the future is likely to be higher than the power demand calculated from the area output predicted value AR0, and the area output predicted value AR0 is the safe side in anticipation of the minimum power demand. It can be said that it is the predicted value of. On the other hand, when the area output predicted value AR0 is larger than the area output measured value DR, that is, when the area output measured value DR is below the area output predicted value AR0 in FIG. It can be said that the area side measured value DR, which is the actual value of the output of P, is set on the risk side with a large value. In other words, the area output predicted value AR0 in this case has a higher possibility that the power demand in the future will be lower than the power demand calculated from the area output predicted value AR0 to some extent, and may be a lower power demand. It can be said that there is a predicted value on the risk side.

More specifically, when the area evaluation value TR1 calculated from the following equation (2) is 0 or less, the measured output is higher than the area output predicted value AR, so the area output predicted value AR is the power demand. It can be said that the predicted value is on the safe side in anticipation of the minimum. On the other hand, when the area evaluation value TR1 is larger than 0, the measured output is lower than the area output predicted value AR, and therefore the area output predicted value AR is a risk-side prediction that may result in a lower power demand. It can be said that it is a value.

TR1=VR・(AR-DR) (2)

Here, VR is a total value of the maximum outputs (maximum capacities) of all the power generation facilities P connected to the area R. The area output predicted value calculation unit 24 acquires the maximum output VR value by, for example, communication via the communication unit 14 or reading from the storage unit 16. Since the area output predicted value calculation unit 24 calculates the area output predicted value AR, the area output predicted value AR is an unknown value in the formula (2), and the maximum output VR and the area output measurement are calculated. The value DR is a known value.

As shown in Expression (2), the area evaluation value TR1 is a value obtained by multiplying the maximum output VR of the area R by a value obtained by subtracting the area output measurement value DR from the area output predicted value AR. Therefore, the area evaluation value TR1 is the output value (electric power value) when it is assumed that the power generation equipment P is operated at the area output predicted value AR in the entire area R, and the power generation equipment P is operated at the area output measurement value DR. It can be said that it is a value obtained by subtracting the output value (electric power value) at the time of performing. That is, the area evaluation value TR1 is a value based on the area output predicted value AR and the area output measured value DR, and can be said to be a value indicating the degree of deviation between the predicted output value and the measured value in the area R.

A plurality of area output measurement values DR are acquired. Therefore, it can be said that the area evaluation value TR1 is also a value for each area output measurement value DR.

Further, a value obtained by converting the area evaluation value TR1 which is the evaluation value in the area R into the evaluation value in the system S is referred to as a converted system evaluation value TR2. That is, the converted system evaluation value TR2 is an evaluation value obtained by converting the area evaluation value TR1 into a value indicating the degree of deviation between the predicted output value and the measured value in the system S. The conversion system evaluation value TR2 is calculated as in the following Expression (3).

TR2=(QS/QR)·TR1 (3)

Here, QS is a value of power demand in the grid S, and more specifically, a value of past power demand in the grid S. The demand QS is the maximum value of the past power demand in the grid S in the present embodiment. Further, QR is a value of power demand in the entire area R, and more specifically, is a value of past power demand in the entire area R. In the present embodiment, the demand QR is the maximum value of past power demand in the entire area R. The demands QS and QR are values that can be acquired by, for example, communication via the communication unit 14 or reading from the storage unit 16. Expression (3) is expressed as the following Expression (4).

TR2=(QS/QR)・VR・(AR-DR) (4)

That is, the conversion system evaluation value TR2 is obtained by multiplying the maximum output VR of the area R by a value obtained by subtracting the area output measurement value DR from the area output predicted value AR, and multiplying the value (area evaluation value TR1) by the demand QS, It is a value converted into the degree of deviation between the predicted value and the measured value of the output in the system S by QR. That is, while the system evaluation value TS is an evaluation value indicating the degree of deviation between the predicted value of the output in the system S and the measured value based on the system output measurement value DS and the system output set value AS, the conversion system The evaluation value TR2 is an evaluation value indicating the degree of deviation between the predicted output value and the measured value in the system S, based on the area output measured value DR and the area output predicted value AR.

A plurality of area output measurement values DR are acquired. Therefore, the conversion system evaluation value TR2 also becomes a value for each area output measurement value DR.

The area output predicted value calculation unit 24 calculates the area output predicted value AR so that the system evaluation value TS and the converted system evaluation value TR2 have a predetermined relationship. More specifically, the area output predicted value calculation unit 24 calculates the area output predicted value AR so that the difference between the system evaluation value TS and the converted system evaluation value TR2 becomes a predetermined value (more specifically, a predetermined numerical range). To do. That is, in the system evaluation value TS and the conversion system evaluation value TR2, the unknown number becomes the area output prediction value AR, so the area output prediction value calculation unit 24 determines that the system evaluation value TS and the conversion system evaluation value TR2 are the predetermined values. The area output predicted value AR can be calculated so as to be related.

In the present embodiment, the area output prediction value calculation unit 24 calculates the area output prediction value AR such that the difference between the system evaluation value TS and the converted system evaluation value TR2 is 0 or more. That is, the area output predicted value calculation unit 24 calculates the area output predicted value AR so that the following expression (5) is established. That is, the area output predicted value calculation unit 24 calculates the area output predicted value AR such that the value obtained by subtracting the converted system evaluated value TR2 from the system evaluated value TS becomes 0 or more.

TS-TR2≧0 (5)

The formula (5) is transformed into the following formula (6), and the formula (6) is transformed into the formula (7).

{VS・(AS-DS)}-{(QS/QR)・VR・(AR-DR)}≧0 (6)
{VS・(AS-DS)}+{(QS/QR)・VR・(DR-AR)}≧0...(7)

Here, if the value obtained by subtracting the converted system evaluation value TR2 from the system evaluation value TS becomes smaller than 0, that is, if the inequalities of the equations (5) to (7) are not satisfied, the converted system evaluation value TR2 becomes the system evaluation value TS. Therefore, the measured value of the output in the system S exceeds the predicted value of the output in the system S based on the area output predicted value AR. In this case, it can be said that the area output predicted value AR is set on the risk side in which the future output by the power generation facility P in the grid S may be higher than the predicted value. On the other hand, when the value obtained by subtracting the conversion system evaluation value TR2 from the system evaluation value TS becomes 0 or more, that is, when the inequalities of the equations (5) to (7) are satisfied, the system evaluation value TS is a value equal to or more than the conversion system evaluation value TR2. Will be. In this case, the measured value of the output in the grid S does not exceed the predicted value of the output in the grid S based on the area output predicted value AR, and the area output predicted value AR is the future output of the power generation facility P in the grid S. It can be said that it is set on the safe side in anticipation of becoming the maximum. Therefore, the area output predicted value calculation unit 24 sets the value obtained by subtracting the converted system evaluation value TR2 from the system evaluation value TS to be 0 or more, that is, the inequalities of the expressions (5) to (7) are satisfied. An area output predicted value AR is calculated.

In this way, the area output prediction value calculation unit 24 calculates the area output prediction value AR so that the difference between the system evaluation value TS and the converted system evaluation value TR2 is 0 or more, but it is 0 or more. Without being limited, the area output predicted value AR may be calculated so that the difference between the system evaluation value TS and the converted system evaluation value TR2 becomes a predetermined value. The conversion system evaluation value TR2 is a value based on the area evaluation value TR1. Therefore, it can be said that the area output predicted value calculation unit 24 calculates the area output predicted value AR such that the area evaluation value TR1 and the system evaluation value TS have a predetermined relationship. Furthermore, the conversion system evaluation value TR2 is a value based on the area output measurement value DR. Therefore, it can be said that the area output predicted value calculation unit 24 calculates the area output predicted value AR based on the area output measured value DR and the system evaluation value TS.

The system evaluation value TS is calculated for each system output measurement value DS. Further, the conversion system evaluation value TR2 is also calculated for each area output measurement value DR. Therefore, the area output predicted value calculation unit 24 determines that the value obtained by subtracting the converted system evaluation value TR2 from the system evaluation value TS is 0 for each combination of the system output measurement value DS and the area output measurement value DR measured at the same time. The area output predicted value AR is calculated as described above, that is, so that the inequalities of the expressions (5) to (7) are satisfied. In other words, the area output prediction value calculation unit 24 calculates a plurality of area output prediction values AR for which the difference between the system evaluation value TS and the converted system evaluation value TR2 is a predetermined value, for each area output measurement value DR.

Here, the equation (7) is a function showing the relationship between the output value of the power generation equipment P in the grid S and the output value of the power generation equipment P in the entire area R, here, the area output measurement value DR and the grid output measurement value DS When converted into a function indicating the relationship of, the following expression (8) is obtained. However, in Expression (8), K is the value of Expression (9), and L is the value of Expression (10).

DR=K・DS+L (8)
K=(QR/QS)・(VS/VR) (9)
L=AR-{(QR/QS)・(VS/VR)・AS} (10)

K in Expression (8), that is, the slope of the output value of the entire area R with respect to the output value of the system S is a value calculated by the acquired value as shown in Expression (9), and therefore is uniquely determined .. Further, the area output predicted value AR is calculated so that the equal sign is satisfied in the expressions (5) to (7), that is, the converted system evaluation value TR2 and the system evaluation value TS have the same value. Thereby, the value of L in the equation (8), that is, the intercept value in the function of the output value of the entire area R with respect to the output value of the system S is determined. Therefore, the equation (7) can be converted into a function indicating the relationship between the area output measurement value DR and the system output measurement value DS as in the equation (8).

FIG. 6 is a graph for explaining calculation of the area output predicted value. A line segment M in FIG. 6 is a function line shown in the equation (8) and showing the relationship between the area output measurement value DR and the system output measurement value DS. The area output predicted value AR is the intersection of the line segment M and the system output set value AS. When the combination of the system output measurement value DS and the area output measurement value DR measured in the future is plotted at the same position as the line segment M or at the upper side, the area output predicted value AR is set on the safe side. Therefore, when plotted below the line segment M, it can be said that the area output predicted value AR is set on the risk side.

Further, as described above, a plurality of area output predicted values AR are calculated for each area output measured value DR. In the example of FIG. 6, the area output predicted value AR1 and the line segment M1 are calculated for the measured value D1, that is, the area output measured value DR1, and the area output is calculated for the measured value D2, that is, the area output measured value DR2. An example in which the predicted value AR2 and the line segment M2 are calculated is shown. The area output predicted value calculation unit 24 sets, for example, the area output predicted value AR having the smallest value among the plurality of area output predicted values AR calculated in this way as the area output predicted value AR used by the determination unit 26. It is preferable. That is, in the example of FIG. 6, the area output predicted value AR1 is the area output predicted value AR used by the determination unit 26. However, the area output predicted value calculation unit 24 is not limited to the smallest area output predicted value AR used by the determination unit 26, and selects the area output predicted value AR according to the severity of the evaluation. Good. Further, the area output prediction value AR is the output prediction value of the entire area A, but is a value calculated based on the data of one system S, and therefore the area output prediction value AR is output for each system S. Good. That is, it is preferable that the area output predicted value AR is calculated for each system S, and that a different area output predicted value AR is used for each system S. However, among the area output predicted values AR calculated for each system S, the area output predicted value AR having the smallest value may be used as the area output predicted value AR used by the determination unit 26.

The area output predicted value AR is calculated as described above. In the present embodiment, the determination unit 26 illustrated in FIG. 2 determines, based on the area output predicted value AR, whether additional power generation equipment can be connected to the area R, or more specifically, whether additional power generation equipment can be connected to the grid S. to decide. The power generation facility to be added is not limited to the photovoltaic power generation facility and may be any power generation facility. The determination unit 26 sets the area output predicted value AR calculated by the area output predicted value calculation unit 24 as the value of the power demand allocated to the power generation facility P in the area R. That is, the determination unit 26 determines that the power generation facility P in the area R needs to supply power for the area output predicted value AR. Then, the determination unit 26 determines whether or not a new power generation facility P can be additionally connected to the grid S based on the area output predicted value AR. That is, if the area output prediction value AR that is the power demand of the power generation facility P has a margin with respect to the current power supply amount of the power generation facility P in the area R, the determination unit 26 determines the area output prediction value AR as, for example, If the difference from the current power supply amount of the power generation facility P in the area R is equal to or more than a predetermined value, it is determined that a new power generation facility P can be additionally connected. Further, the determination unit 26 may set the total power supply amount of the power generation equipment P in the area R based on the area output predicted value AR. Further, the determination unit 26 may calculate the expected power flow in the area R based on the area output predicted value AR. That is, the determination unit 26 sets the area output predicted value AR as the power demand of the power generation facility P, and also calculates the power demand of other power generation facilities. Then, the determination unit 26 also calculates the power supply amount of each power generation facility in the area R, and calculates the assumed power flow based on the power demand and the power supply amount.

FIG. 7 is a graph illustrating an example of the area output predicted value. In the example of FIG. 7, for the distribution of the area output measurement value DR with respect to the system output measurement value DS, the lower limit first-order approximation straight line MX is derived, and the intersection point of the first-order approximation straight line MX and the system output setting value AS is area-outputted. The case where the predicted value is ARX is shown as a comparative example. On the other hand, the output prediction system 1 according to the present embodiment calculates the line segment M and the area output predicted value AR by the method described above. As shown in the example of FIG. 7, the area output prediction value AR calculated by the output prediction system 1 according to the present embodiment has a distribution of the system output measurement value DS and the area output measurement value DR more than that of the comparative example. On the other hand, it can be said that the set value is on the safer side. That is, according to the present embodiment, the output predicted value of the entire area R is expected in consideration of the increase of the output of the power generating equipment P in the system S and the decrease of the output (electric power demand) of the power generation equipment P of the entire area R. It is possible to accurately calculate the area output predicted value AR that is According to the output prediction system 1 according to the present embodiment, it becomes possible to accurately calculate the predicted value of the output of the power generation equipment in the entire area, suppress the decrease in the calculation accuracy of the assumed power flow, and connect the power to the area R. It becomes possible to properly select equipment. Further, in the example of FIG. 7, the area output predicted value AR according to the present embodiment has a larger value than the area output predicted value ARX according to the comparative example. Therefore, according to the present embodiment, it is possible to highly estimate the predicted value of the output of the power generation equipment in the entire area R while suppressing a decrease in the calculation accuracy of the assumed power flow. If the estimated value of the output of the power generation equipment in the entire area R is estimated to be high, it is possible to estimate the power demand to be high in the calculation of the expected power flow. Therefore, the number of power generation equipment that can be newly connected to the area R is You can do a lot.

The processing flow of the output prediction system 1 described above will be described based on a flowchart. FIG. 8 is a flowchart illustrating the processing flow of the output prediction system according to this embodiment. As shown in FIG. 8, in the output prediction system 1, the measurement value acquisition unit 20 distributes a plurality of distributions of the measurement values D, that is, a combination of the system output measurement value DS and the area output measurement value DR measured at the same time. It is acquired (step S10). Then, in the output prediction system 1, the system evaluation value calculation unit 22 calculates the system evaluation value TS for each measurement value D, that is, for each system output measurement value DS (step S12). The system evaluation value calculation unit 22 calculates the system evaluation value TS based on the difference between the system output measurement value DS and the system output set value AS.

Then, in the output prediction system 1, the area output predicted value calculation unit 24 calculates the area output predicted value AR for each measured value D so that the difference between the system evaluated value TS and the converted system evaluated value TR2 becomes a predetermined value. Calculate (step S14). The area output predicted value calculation unit 24 calculates the area output predicted value AR such that the difference between the system evaluated value TS and the converted system evaluated value TR2 is 0 or more. Then, in the output prediction system 1, the area output prediction value calculation unit 24 selects the area output prediction value AR used by the determination unit 26 from the plurality of area output prediction values AR (step S16), and the selection unit 26 selects the area output prediction value AR. On the basis of the predicted area output value AR, it is determined whether or not additional power generation equipment can be connected to the grid S (step S18).

As described above, the output prediction system 1 according to the present embodiment calculates the predicted value of the output of the power generation facility P in the area R in which the plurality of grids S to which the power generation facility P is connected is provided. It has a measurement value acquisition unit 20, a system evaluation value calculation unit 22, and an area output predicted value calculation unit 24. The measurement value acquisition unit 20 includes a system output measurement value DS, which is a measurement value of the output of the power generation equipment P of one system S, and the power generation equipment P of the entire area R at the same time as the time when the system output measurement value DS is measured. The area output measurement value DR, which is a measurement value of the output of, is acquired. The system evaluation value calculation unit 22 measures and sets the output of the system S based on the difference between the system output set value AS set as the set value of the output of the power generation facility P in the system S and the system output measurement value DS. A system evaluation value TS indicating the degree of deviation from the value is calculated. The area output predicted value calculation unit 24 calculates an area output predicted value AR that is a predicted value of the output of the power generation facility P in the entire area R based on the area output measured value DR and the system evaluation value TS. Since the output prediction system 1 calculates the area output predicted value AR in this way, it becomes possible to calculate the predicted value of the output of the power generation equipment in the entire area with high accuracy, and suppress the decrease in the calculation accuracy of the expected power flow. can do.

The area output predicted value calculation unit 24 has an area evaluation value TR1 that is a value based on the area output predicted value AR and the area output measured value DR and indicates the degree of deviation between the predicted output value and the measured value in the area R, and a system evaluation. The area output predicted value AR is calculated so that the value TS has a predetermined relationship. Since the output prediction system 1 calculates the area output predicted value AR in this way, it becomes possible to calculate the predicted value of the output of the power generation equipment in the entire area with high accuracy, and suppress the decrease in the calculation accuracy of the expected power flow. can do.

The area output predicted value calculation unit 24 calculates a difference between the system evaluation value TS and the converted system evaluation value TR2 obtained by converting the area evaluation value AR into a value indicating the degree of deviation between the predicted value of the output in the system S and the measured value. The area output predicted value AR is calculated so as to have a predetermined value. Since the output prediction system 1 calculates the area output predicted value AR in this way, it becomes possible to calculate the predicted value of the output of the power generation equipment in the entire area with high accuracy, and suppress the decrease in the calculation accuracy of the expected power flow. can do.

The measurement value acquisition unit 20 acquires a plurality of system output measurement values DS and area output measurement values DR, and the system evaluation value calculation unit 22 calculates a system evaluation value TS for each system output measurement value DS. The area output predicted value calculation unit 24 calculates a plurality of area output predicted values AR for which the difference between the converted system evaluated value TR2 and the system evaluated value TS is a predetermined value for each area output measured value DR. The measurement value acquisition unit 20 selects the minimum value of the area output predicted values AR as the area output predicted value AR. Since the output prediction system 1 calculates the area output predicted value AR in this way, it becomes possible to calculate the predicted value of the output of the power generation equipment in the entire area with high accuracy, and suppress the decrease in the calculation accuracy of the expected power flow. can do.

The system evaluation value calculation unit 22 sets the maximum value of the plurality of system output measurement values DS as the system output set value AS. Since the output prediction system 1 calculates the area output predicted value AR in this way, it becomes possible to calculate the predicted value of the output of the power generation equipment in the entire area with high accuracy, and suppress the decrease in the calculation accuracy of the expected power flow. can do.

In addition, the output prediction system 1 further includes a determination unit 26 that determines whether or not additional power generation equipment can be connected to the area R based on the area output prediction value AR. The output prediction system 1 determines whether or not additional power generation equipment can be connected based on the area output measurement value AR calculated in this way, and thus can highly accurately determine whether or not power generation equipment can be added. Further, the area output measurement value AR can be overestimated, so that the number of power generation facilities that can be added can be increased.

Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described above, the present invention is not limited by the contents of these embodiments. Further, the components described above include those that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art, those that are substantially the same, and those within the so-called equivalent range. Furthermore, the components described above can be combined appropriately. Furthermore, various omissions, substitutions, or changes of the constituent elements can be made without departing from the scope of the above-described embodiment.

1 Output Prediction System 20 Measured Value Acquisition Unit 22 System Evaluation Value Calculation Unit 24 Area Output Predicted Value Calculation Unit 26 Judgment Area AR Area Output Predicted Value AS Grid Output Set Value DR Area Output Measured Value DS Grid Output Measured Value P Power Generation Facility R Area S system TR1 area evaluation value TR2 conversion system evaluation value TS system evaluation value

Claims (8)

An output prediction system of a power generation facility, which calculates a predicted value of the output of the power generation facility in an area where a plurality of systems to which the power generation facility is connected is provided,
A system output measurement value that is a measurement value of the output of the power generation equipment of one of the systems, and an area that is a measurement value of the output of the power generation equipment of the entire area at the same time as the time when the system output measurement value was measured. A measured value acquisition unit that acquires the output measured value and
Based on the difference between the system output set value set as the set value of the output of the power generation equipment in the system and the system output measured value, a system evaluation indicating the degree of deviation between the output set value and the measured value in the system A system evaluation value calculation unit that calculates a value,
An area output predicted value calculation unit that calculates an area output predicted value that is a predicted value of the output of the power generation equipment in the entire area based on the area output measured value and the grid evaluation value.
Output prediction system for power generation equipment. The area output predicted value calculation unit is an area evaluation value that is a value based on the area output predicted value and the area output measured value, and indicates the degree of deviation between the predicted value of the output in the area and the measured value, and the systematic evaluation. The output prediction system for power generation equipment according to claim 1, wherein the area output prediction value is calculated so that the value and the value have a predetermined relationship. The area output predicted value calculation unit converts the area evaluation value into a value indicating a degree of deviation between the predicted value of the output in the system and the measured value, and a difference between the system evaluation value is predetermined. The power output facility prediction system according to claim 2, wherein the area output prediction value is calculated so as to be a value. The measurement value acquisition unit acquires a plurality of the system output measurement value and the area output measurement value,
The system evaluation value calculation unit calculates the system evaluation value for each system output measurement value,
The area output prediction value calculation unit calculates a plurality of the area output prediction values for which the difference between the conversion system evaluation value and the system evaluation value is the predetermined value, for each area output measurement value, and to calculate the plurality of areas. The output prediction system for power generation equipment according to claim 3, wherein the minimum value of the output prediction values is selected as the area output prediction value. The output estimation of the power generation equipment according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the system evaluation value calculation unit sets a maximum value of a plurality of the system output measurement values as the system output set value. system. The power output facility output prediction system according to claim 1, further comprising: a determination unit that determines whether or not additional power generation equipment can be connected to the area based on the area output predicted value. The output prediction system of the power generation facility according to claim 1, wherein the power generation facility is a solar power generation facility or a wind power generation facility. A method for predicting the output of a power generation facility for calculating a predicted value of the output of the power generation facility in an area where a plurality of systems to which the power generation facility is connected is provided,
A system output measurement value that is a measurement value of the output of the power generation equipment of one of the systems, and an area that is a measurement value of the output of the power generation equipment of the entire area at the same time as the time when the system output measurement value was measured. Output measurement value, and a measurement value acquisition step for acquiring
Based on the difference between the system output set value set as the set value of the output of the power generation equipment in the system and the system output measured value, a system evaluation indicating the degree of deviation between the output set value and the measured value in the system A system evaluation value calculation step for calculating a value,
An area output prediction value calculating step of calculating an area output prediction value that is a prediction value of the output of the power generation equipment in the entire area based on the area output measurement value and the grid evaluation value,
Output prediction method for power generation equipment.

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