JP2019179402A - Financing examination system, method and program - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide a financing examination system, method and program based on a transaction lending type examination model by cooperating with one or more settlement proxy undertaker's systems.SOLUTION: A financing examination system includes: means for receiving a first transaction history including an affiliated store ID; means for calculating a prescribed total sales value on the basis of the first transaction history associated with the affiliated store ID; means for generating a prediction model by acquiring a second transaction history of affiliated stores of the same business type as the affiliated stores associated with the affiliated store ID on condition that the calculated prescribed total sales value is equal to or more than a threshold; means for calculating a prediction value of an affiliated store to be associated with the affiliated store ID by using the generated prediction model and the first transaction history; means for calculating the lower limit of a prediction section on the basis of the calculated prediction value and the a set value; and means for transmitting a loan condition based on the calculated lower limit of the prediction section.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 6

Description

  The present invention relates to a loan examination system, method, and program. More specifically, the present invention is a loan that can be provisionally examined for loan availability based on the transaction history data of a partner company in cooperation with a company having transaction history data such as sales information. The present invention relates to an examination system, method and program.

  There are various known funding methods used by individual business owners (self-employed) and corporate managers to improve their cash flow. Bank financing, which is one type of funding method, requires many submissions, such as being required to submit financial statements for the past several years, and it takes a lot of time to make a loan decision. It was an inconvenient way of raising funds for corporations that wanted to receive it.

  Under these circumstances, payment agents will be able to participate in more stores (member stores) for services provided by their company (for example, funds collection by credit card payment). Various services are being considered, and as one of the services, a settlement agent is considering providing a transaction lending scheme, which is a kind of funding method, to member stores. Transaction lending is a loan service that is performed by a payment agency to member stores, and is a loan service that uses a transaction history such as buying and selling, fund settlement, customer evaluation, and the like to examine. Since payment agents know the transaction history of merchants that are updated in real time, transaction lending is known as a loan service that has a shorter examination period compared to bank loans, such as knowing the examination results in a few days. (Non-Patent Document 1, page 979).

  Currently, the handling amount of e-commerce is increasing year by year, and the number of member stores is increasing accordingly. For this reason, when a merchant raises funds, there is an increasing need to use transaction lending among several fund raising methods.

  However, in order for the payment service provider to provide a transaction lending service, it is necessary to construct a screening system for financing in addition to the electronic commerce system. Moreover, since there are few payment agents with know-how to credit member stores, there are very few payment agents that can actually provide transaction lending schemes, and some major payment agents are dealing with some. It was a reality.

  Credit card companies have credit know-how accumulated in setting credit limits for card members, cashing for individual customers, and business loans for business operators. In recent years, credit card companies have applied for cards. In addition, a service is available that allows the examination result to be confirmed on the same day from the application (Patent Document 1). Although business loans are loan products with a higher interest rate than bank loans, they are known as a relatively familiar financing method for individual business owners and corporations because they conduct screening in a simpler method than bank loans. Yes.

Japanese Patent No. 6067909

Edited by Masaru Muro, "Keyword Encyclopedia of Financial Practice for SE", Research Group for Financial and Fiscal Situation, March 30, 2017

  Settlement service providers have information on transaction history even when trying to start a transaction lending service, but they often do not have the know-how to determine whether or not they can lend, and the burden of system construction is heavy. It was a thing. On the other hand, a credit card company has a system for determining whether or not credit can be made in a short period of time, but since it has no transaction history information associated with a merchant of a settlement agent, transaction lending Could not start service. In addition, credit card companies sometimes used self-reported information of those who wish to lend in conventional credit screening. Such self-reported information includes information with low reliability. It was difficult to conduct a highly accurate examination.

  The present invention has been made to solve such a problem, and the credit card company system is based on a transaction lending examination model in cooperation with one or a plurality of settlement agency systems. The purpose is to provide a loan examination system, method and program.

  The loan examination system according to one aspect of the present invention provides a predetermined sales total based on means for receiving a first transaction history including a member store ID and the first transaction history associated with the member store ID. A second transaction history of a member store of the same type of business as the member store associated with the member store ID on the condition that the value is calculated and the calculated predetermined total sales value is equal to or greater than a threshold value; Means for generating a prediction model; means for calculating a predicted value of a member store associated with the member store ID using the generated prediction model and the first transaction history; and And means for calculating a lower limit value of the prediction interval based on the set value and means for transmitting a loan condition based on the calculated lower limit value of the prediction interval.

  According to another aspect of the present invention, a method executed by a loan examination system receives a first transaction history including a member store ID, and the first transaction history associated with the member store ID. On the basis of the number of member stores of the same industry as the member store associated with the member store ID on the condition that the predetermined total sales value is calculated and the calculated predetermined total sales value is equal to or greater than a threshold value. Obtaining a transaction history of 2 and generating a prediction model, and using the generated prediction model and the first transaction history, calculating a prediction value of a member store associated with the member store ID And calculating a lower limit value of the prediction interval based on the calculated predicted value and the set value, and transmitting a loan condition based on the calculated lower limit value of the prediction interval.

  According to the present invention, since the lending company can use the transaction history data of other companies, it is not necessary to rely on the self-reported numerical information, thereby improving the reliability of the credit examination. be able to. In addition, it is possible for the member stores to obtain the effects that, when raising funds, it is possible to input information and apply in a simple manner, and to know whether or not a loan is possible earlier than before.

A detailed understanding of the embodiments disclosed herein can be obtained from the following description, illustrated with reference to the accompanying drawings.
It is a block diagram of the whole system containing the screening system which concerns on this invention. It is a system configuration figure of the examination system concerning the present invention. It is a figure explaining an example of the data structure of transaction history. It is a figure explaining an example of the data structure of loan information. It is a figure explaining an example of the data structure of loan detailed information. It is a figure explaining the processing flow which is temporarily examined by the screening system which concerns on this invention about the possibility of financing with respect to a merchant of a settlement agency. It is a figure explaining the processing flow of this examination performed by the examination system concerning the present invention.

(overall structure)
FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of the entire system including an examination system 10 according to the present invention. The examination system 10 is an examination system controlled by a credit card company, and is a system for judging whether or not a loan is possible for a loan application. The EC system 11 is a system that is controlled by a payment agency, and is a system that holds a transaction history of a member store and transmits the transaction history to the examination system 10. In this specification, the sales data of a member store will be described as an example of a transaction history. However, the transaction history can include information such as buying and selling, fund settlement, and customer evaluation, and is limited to specific information. There is no.

  The operator terminal 12 is a terminal used by an operator who desires financing, and can be a computer having a communication function such as a personal computer (PC), a smartphone, or a tablet terminal. It is not limited to a device. The business entity terminal 12 has an application program such as a web browser for browsing a screen received from the examination system 10 or the EC system 11. The business entity terminal 12 can transmit a loan application and receive the examination result for the application via the screen.

  The examination system 10, the EC system 11, and the business entity terminal 12 are connected so as to be able to communicate with each other via a known network 13 such as the Internet. For convenience of explanation, only one EC system 11 and one business entity terminal 12 are shown in FIG. 1, but there may be a plurality of each. In other words, the examination system 10 is connected to a plurality of EC systems 11 and can provide this service to each settlement agency, and the EC system 11 is connected to a plurality of operator terminals 12. , Providing loan services to each member store. The loan service is provided by cooperation between a credit card company that operates the examination system 10 and each settlement agent business operator that operates the EC system 11.

  Here, with reference to FIG. 1, the flow of the member store receiving a transaction lending-based loan service will be described. When a member store intends to receive a loan, the member store accesses the EC system 11 via the company terminal 12 and selects a menu of business loan (loan for the company). When a signal indicating that the menu has been selected is transmitted from the business operator terminal 12 to the screening system 10, the screening system 10 transmits the product content of the loan to the business operator terminal 12. When the member store inputs to the business operator terminal 12 that the merchandise store agrees to the contents of the loan, the business operator terminal 12 transmits a signal indicating the agreement to the EC system 11. The EC system 11 provides a screen for authenticating the member store to the business entity terminal 12, and the business entity terminal 12 transmits the authentication information (ID, password) input by the member store to the EC system 11. When the authentication process is successfully completed, the EC system 11 transmits the transaction history of the member store that is the login user to the examination system 10 together with the member store identification information. The examination system 10 performs processing as described in the present specification, determines whether or not the member store can be financed, and transmits the determination result to the operator terminal 12. Merchants can raise funds by referring to the results of the assessment (including loan conditions) and applying for this review.

(System configuration)
FIG. 2 is a system configuration diagram of the examination system 10 according to the present invention. The examination system 10 includes a control unit 101, a main storage unit 102, an auxiliary storage unit 103, an interface (IF) unit 104, and an output unit 105 connected to each other by a bus 110 or the like, like a general computer. it can. Further, the examination system 10 can include a transaction history 106, loan information 107, and loan details information 108 in the form of storage means such as a file / database in the auxiliary storage unit 103.

  The control unit 101 is also called a central processing unit (CPU), controls each component in the examination system 10 and calculates data, and also stores various programs stored in the auxiliary storage unit 103 into the main storage unit 102. Can be read and executed. The main storage unit 102 is also referred to as a main memory, and can store various received data, computer-executable instructions, data after arithmetic processing by the instructions, and the like. The auxiliary storage unit 103 is a storage device typified by a hard disk (HDD) and is used when data and programs are stored for a long period of time.

  2 describes an embodiment in which the control unit 101, the main storage unit 102, and the auxiliary storage unit 103 are provided in the same computer. As another embodiment, the examination system 10 includes the control unit 101, the main storage unit 103, and the main storage unit 103. By using a plurality of storage units 102 and auxiliary storage units 103, parallel distributed processing by a plurality of computers can be realized. As another embodiment, a plurality of servers for the examination system 10 may be installed, and a plurality of servers may share one auxiliary storage unit 103.

  The IF unit 104 serves as an interface for transmitting and receiving data to and from other systems and devices, and provides an interface for receiving various commands and input data (such as various masters and tables) from the system operator. Can do. The output unit 105 can provide a display screen for displaying the processed data, a printing unit for printing the data, and the like.

  Note that components having the same functions as those of the control unit 101, the main storage unit 102, the auxiliary storage unit 103, the interface (IF) unit 104, and the output unit 105 also exist in the EC system 11, but will be described in this specification. Omitted.

  The transaction history 106 is a file that stores transaction history data for each member store received from the EC system 11. The transaction history can include information such as buying and selling, fund settlement, and customer evaluation, but is not limited thereto. In this specification, sales data will be described as an example in the transaction history. Further, the transaction history can be periodically transmitted from the EC system 11 to the examination system 10, or only the target data can be transmitted in response to a request from the examination system 10.

  Here, the data structure of the transaction history 106 will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining an example of the data structure of the transaction history 106 (that is, sales data). The transaction history 106 can include a settlement agent ID 301, a member store ID 302, a date 303, and a sales amount 304, but is not limited to these data items and may include other data items. Is possible.

  The payment agent business operator ID 301 is an identifier for identifying a payment agent business operator that controls the EC system 11. The member store ID 302 is an identifier for identifying a member store that has opened a store in an electronic mall of a payment agent business operator corresponding to the payment agent business operator ID 301. The date 303 indicates the date of occurrence of the sales data of the member store, and the sales amount 304 indicates the sales amount of the member store.

  Returning to FIG. 2 and continuing the description, the loan information 107 is a file for storing information of a loan executed for a member store. FIG. 4 is a diagram for explaining an example of the data structure of the loan information 107. The loan information 107 can include a loan ID 401, a settlement agent ID 301, a member store ID 302, a loan date 402, a loan amount 403, a repayment date 404, a loan interest rate 405, and an execution flag 406. It is not limited, and other data items can be included.

  The loan ID 401 is an identifier for identifying a loan executed by the settlement agency to the member store. As described with reference to FIG. 3, the payment agent business ID 301 and the member store ID 302 are respectively an identifier for identifying a payment agent business that controls the EC system 11 and a payment agent business corresponding to the payment agent business ID 301. This is an identifier for identifying the member store of the seller. The loan date 402 indicates the loan date for the member store, and the loan amount 403 indicates the loan amount for the member store. The repayment date 404 indicates the repayment date of the loan to the member store, and the loan interest rate 405 indicates the loan interest rate of the loan to the member store. The execution flag 406 is a flag indicating whether or not a loan has actually been executed in response to an application for a main examination from a member store for which a loan condition has been presented in the provisional examination. That is, the data of the loan information 107 is generated when the loan conditions are presented to the business operator terminal 12 in the provisional examination.

  Returning to FIG. 2 again, the loan statement information 108 is a file that stores detailed data relating to the loan executed for the member store. FIG. 5 is a diagram for explaining an example of the data structure of the loan details information 108. The loan details information 108 may include a loan ID 401, a transaction type 501, a transaction date 502, and a transaction amount 503, but is not limited to these data items, and may include other data items. .

  As described with reference to FIG. 4, the loan ID 401 is an identifier for identifying a loan executed for a merchant of a settlement agency. The transaction type 501 indicates an action performed on the loan executed to the member store of the settlement agency, for example, repayment, loan execution, and the like. For example, when a repayment of a loan from a merchant is made partly or entirely, "repayment" data is generated, or an extreme loan (a type that can be refinanced up to a certain amount) For example, in the case of an extremely large amount of 1 million yen, an additional loan is provided in the form of a loan of 300,000 yen for the first time and 100,000 yen for the second time) “Loan execution” data is generated. The transaction date 502 indicates the date on which the transaction was performed, and the transaction amount 503 indicates the transaction amount.

(Processing flow)
Next, with reference to FIG. 6, a processing flow executed by the screening system 10 according to the present invention for provisional screening of whether or not the payment agent company can lend to a member store will be described. Before starting this processing flow, after access to the EC system 11 from the operator terminal 12 and operations for applying for a business loan (selection of loan, consent to loan products) are performed, It is assumed that the input authentication information (ID, password) is transmitted to the EC system 11 and the authentication process is successfully completed. As a result, the EC system 11 can transmit the transaction history associated with the member store ID of the member store that desires the loan to the examination system 10.

  In S <b> 601, the examination system 10 receives a transaction history from the EC system 11 and stores the received transaction history in the transaction history 106. The transaction history received from the EC system 11 is information associated with the member store ID of the member store that desires the loan, and includes the settlement agency ID, the member store ID, the date, and the sales amount. It is possible to include other information necessary for transaction lending. The examination system 10 can also receive information from the business establishment terminal 12 such as the member store name and address associated with the member store ID included in the received transaction history.

  In S602, the examination system 10 makes an inquiry to the transaction history 106 using the member store ID included in the received transaction history as a search key, reads the transaction history data associated with the member store ID, and has a predetermined period. The total value of the sales amount (for example, the last three months) is calculated. The examination system 10 determines whether or not the calculated total value is greater than or equal to a threshold value (for example, 100,000 yen). If the calculated total value is equal to or greater than the threshold, the process proceeds to S603. On the other hand, if the calculated total value is not equal to or greater than the threshold, the process proceeds to S604. In S <b> 604, the examination system 10 transmits a disapproval notice for business loan application to the business entity terminal 12, and ends the present processing flow.

In S603, the examination system 10 generates a prediction model for performing sales prediction of member stores. More specifically, the examination system 10 stores the transaction history of a member store of the same industry (for example, a restaurant, apparel, etc.) as the member store associated with the member store ID used as the search key in S602 in the EC system 11. Request. The examination system 10 receives the transaction history data of the member store of the requested industry from the EC system 11, and generates explanatory variables (indexes) constituting a prediction model from the received transaction history data. The received transaction history data may be data for a predetermined period (for example, the last two years). The explanatory variable can be, for example, weekly sales total, monthly sales total, quarterly sales total, and annual sales total, but is not limited thereto. Here, when the prediction model is expressed by a mathematical formula,
y (predicted value) = α0 + α1 × index 1 + α2 × index 2+... + αn × index n
Can be expressed as Table 1 shows examples of numerical values of explanatory variables (indexes), coefficients, and contributions as examples of model configuration indices.

  Note that the prediction model exemplified in this specification is merely an example, and other prediction models capable of predicting future sales based on the transaction history (for example, sales data) of member stores are also employed in the present invention. Is possible.

  In one embodiment of the present invention, the screening system 10 updates the prediction model at a predetermined timing (for example, new sales data for one month is generated), recalculates the prediction value, and provides financing to the member store. It may be configured to determine the suitability of. As a result of this determination, if it is determined that the loan is inappropriate, the screening system 10 can notify the EC system 11 and make it easier to foresee a possible repayment delay in the future.

  In S605, the examination system 10 calculates the sales forecast value of the member store that desires the loan based on the prediction model generated in S603. More specifically, the examination system 10 aggregates the sales amount for the last 12 months from the data of the transaction history of the member store read out using the member store ID as a search key in S602 (first Q data ~ 4th Q data: Q means “Quarter: Quarter”) and / or annual sales data. The examination system 10 multiplies each of the first Q data to the fourth Q data and / or the annual sales amount data by the coefficient calculated in S603 to calculate a sales forecast value.

In S606, the examination system 10 calculates the lower limit value of the prediction interval based on the sales prediction value calculated in S605, the standard deviation (standard error) of the error set for each prediction value category, and the t value. To do. For example, if the calculated sales forecast value is 3 million yen, the lower limit value of the forecast interval is obtained by multiplying the calculated sales forecast value by the t value in the forecast value category of the forecast value and the standard deviation of the error. It is possible to obtain it. As an example, if t value is 1.50 and standard deviation of error is 1,500,000,
3,000,000-1.50 x 1,500,000 = 750,000
The lower limit value of the prediction interval can be calculated as 750,000 yen by the above formula. Table 2 shows an example of values used for prediction interval estimation. “One side 90%” indicates that there is a 10% probability that sales in the following year will fall below the lower limit of the forecast range. Although Table 2 illustrates 90% on one side, it may be 95% depending on the set interest rate at the time of financing.

  In S <b> 607, the examination system 10 transmits the loan conditions including the interest rate to the business entity terminal 12 using the lower limit value of the prediction interval calculated in S <b> 606 as the loanable upper limit amount for the member store. As the interest rate, a predetermined interest rate corresponding to the loan amount may be set. If it says in the above-mentioned example, the examination system 10 can transmit the loan condition of “loan amount: 750,000 yen, interest rate: 11%” to the provider terminal 12. In addition, the examination system 10 generates a loan ID for identifying the loan condition, and stores data based on the loan condition presented to the operator terminal 12 in the loan information 107. When the screening system 10 displays the loan conditions and the application button on the screen of the operator terminal 12, it also transmits the loan ID so that when the application button is pressed, the loan ID is transmitted to the screening system 10. May be.

  Next, with reference to FIG. 7, a processing flow of the main examination performed by the examination system 10 according to the present invention will be described. As a premise of this processing, it is assumed that the examination system 10 transmits the loan condition and the loan ID to the business entity terminal 12 in S607.

  In S <b> 701, the examination system 10 receives an application for the already-financed loan conditions from the operator terminal 12. This application may include a loan ID.

  In S <b> 702, in response to receiving the application, the examination system 10 causes the business entity terminal 12 to display an input form screen including examination items for the main examination. Examination items for examination include, for example, corporate information. Further, the examination system 10 inquires the loan information 107 for the settlement agent ID and the member store ID associated with the received loan ID and specifies the basic information of the member store (for example, the member store name). ) Can be requested, and the information obtained by the request can be displayed on the input form. Thereby, the member store can use the company information stored in the EC system 11 in the application for the main examination, and can input easily.

  In S703, when the examination system 10 receives the information of the member store updated by the business entity terminal 12, it makes an inquiry to one or a plurality of external credit information agencies, and credit information about the member store and its manager. To get. The examination system 10 determines whether or not the loan is possible based on the acquired credit information.

  In S <b> 704, the examination system 10 transmits the result of this examination (a loan is possible or a loan is not possible) to the business entity terminal 12. As a result of the main examination, if it is determined that the loan is possible, the examination system 10 stores data in the loan details information 108 and performs a loan to the member store in accordance with the timing when the loan date arrives. (For example, transfer processing) is performed.

  Although the principle of the present invention has been described above with reference to exemplary embodiments, those skilled in the art will appreciate that various embodiments that change in configuration and details can be realized without departing from the spirit of the present invention. Will understand. That is, the present invention can take an embodiment as, for example, a system, apparatus, method, program, or storage medium.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Examination system 11 EC system 12 Provider terminal 13 Network 101 Control part 102 Main memory part 103 Auxiliary memory part 104 Interface (IF) part 105 Output part 106 Transaction history 107 Loan information 108 Loan details information 110 Bus

Claims (9)

A loan review system,
Means for receiving a first transaction history including a member store ID;
Means for calculating a predetermined total sales value based on the first transaction history associated with the member store ID;
On the condition that the calculated predetermined total sales value is equal to or greater than a threshold value,
Means for acquiring a second transaction history of a member store of the same industry as the member store associated with the member store ID and generating a prediction model;
Means for calculating a predicted value of a member store associated with the member store ID using the generated prediction model and the first transaction history;
Means for calculating a lower limit value of the prediction interval based on the calculated predicted value and the set value;
Means for transmitting a loan condition based on the lower limit value of the calculated prediction section.   Means for generating a first variable constituting the prediction model based on the second transaction history, wherein the first variable includes a plurality of sales total values for a predetermined period; The loan examination system according to claim 1, further comprising:   The loan examination system according to claim 1, wherein the prediction model is updated at a predetermined timing, and the prediction value is recalculated.   The loan examination system according to claim 3, further comprising means for notifying on condition that a loan based on the recalculated predicted value is determined to be inappropriate.   The loan examination system according to claim 1, wherein the means for calculating a predicted value of a member store associated with the member store ID uses a numerical value totaled for each predetermined period of the first transaction history.   The loan examination system according to claim 1, wherein the set value indicates a standard error and a t value set for each predicted value category. The means for transmitting a loan condition based on the lower limit value of the calculated prediction section further transmits a loan condition identifier,
On the condition that a response including the loan condition identifier is received,
Specify the settlement agent ID associated with the loan condition identifier and the member store ID,
Obtaining member store information associated with the member store ID from an external system associated with the settlement agent ID, and transmitting it for display;
According to the updated merchant information, make an inquiry to one or more external credit information agencies to determine whether or not financing is possible.
The loan examination system according to claim 1. A method carried out by the loan review system,
Receiving a first transaction history including a merchant ID;
Calculating a predetermined total sales value based on the first transaction history associated with the member store ID;
On the condition that the calculated predetermined total sales value is equal to or greater than a threshold value,
Obtaining a second transaction history of a member store in the same industry as the member store associated with the member store ID to generate a prediction model;
Calculating a predicted value of a member store associated with the member store ID using the generated prediction model and the first transaction history;
Calculating a lower limit value of the prediction interval based on the calculated predicted value and the set value;
Transmitting a loan condition based on the calculated lower limit of the prediction interval.   A program that, when executed by a processor, causes a computer to execute the method according to claim 8.

Images