JP2019114981A - Traffic prediction apparatus, traffic prediction program, traffic prediction method, and traffic prediction system - Google Patents

Abstract

To improve accuracy of predicting changes in traffic associated with events.SOLUTION: A traffic prediction apparatus 300 includes: a storage unit 330 that stores traffic information indicating an amount of communication of a communication terminal 200; an acquisition unit 311 that acquires past traffic information corresponding to acquired scheduled event information from the storage unit 330 by acquiring the scheduled event information indicating an event to be held from a message posted to a service on a network including a predetermined keyword regarding the event; and an output unit 314 that outputs the past traffic information acquired by the acquisition unit 311.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

  The present invention relates to a traffic prediction device, a traffic prediction program, a traffic prediction method, and a traffic prediction system that predicts fluctuations in traffic associated with events.

  Conventionally, there is known a technique for predicting the scale of an event based on the number of messages related to the event posted on the network. Non-Patent Document 1 describes a technique for predicting fluctuations in traffic (traffic) based on the number of messages including specific words related to events posted on the network.

Kawata Ryota, 2 others, "The Institute of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineers Technical Report IN2016-97-IN2016-172 Information network (Extraction of information about traffic fluctuation from social media data for predictive traffic engineering)" The Institute of Electronics, Information and Communication Engineers Publication, March 2, 2017, p. 7-12

  By using the technology described in Non-Patent Document 1, it is possible to predict fluctuations in the amount of communication at the time of an event by the number of posted messages. However, since the amount of communication is affected by various conditions such as the date and time of the event, type, place, facilities, etc., how much fluctuation of the amount of communication actually occurs at the time of the event in the technology described in It is difficult to predict with high accuracy.

  Therefore, the present invention has been made in view of these points, and provides a traffic prediction apparatus, a traffic prediction program, a traffic prediction method, and a traffic prediction system that can improve the accuracy of predicting changes in the amount of communication accompanying events. Intended to be provided.

  A traffic prediction apparatus according to a first aspect of the present invention is held from a storage means for storing traffic information indicating the traffic of a communication terminal, and a message posted to a service on a network including a predetermined keyword related to an event. Event information acquiring means for acquiring held event information indicating a scheduled event, and traffic information for acquiring from the storage means the traffic information in the past corresponding to the held scheduled event information acquired by the event information acquiring means An acquisition unit, and an output unit that outputs the past traffic information acquired by the traffic information acquisition unit.

  The storage means stores the traffic information including a measurement place where the communication amount is measured and a measurement time when the communication amount is measured, and the event information acquisition means at least holds a holding place as the scheduled event information. And information indicating an open time, and the traffic information acquisition means acquires, from the storage means, the past traffic information including the open place and the measurement place corresponding to the open time and the measurement time. It is also good.

  The traffic information acquisition means is the traffic information including the measurement place which is the same place as the holding place, and the traffic information including the measurement time one year before the holding time from the storage means You may get it.

  In the traffic predicting apparatus, a first communication amount, which is the communication amount indicated by the past traffic information acquired by the traffic information acquiring means, is before or after the measurement time corresponding to the holding time. The apparatus further comprises determining means for determining whether the second amount of communication, which is the amount of communication in at least one of the predetermined periods, has been exceeded, the output means including the determining means for determining the first amount of communication The traffic information in the past indicating the first communication amount may be output on the condition that it is determined that the communication amount is exceeded.

  The determination unit is the measurement time of the day when the first communication amount does not correspond to the holding time, and the measurement time of a time zone corresponding to a time zone from the start time to the end time of the holding time It may be determined whether or not a certain second communication amount has been exceeded.

  The output means is configured such that a first upstream communication amount, which is the upstream communication amount indicated by the past traffic information acquired by the traffic information acquisition means, is earlier than the measurement time corresponding to the holding time or the measurement time The past traffic information indicating the first amount of upstream communication may be output on condition that the second amount of upstream communication, which is the amount of upstream communication within a predetermined period of at least one of the later, is exceeded.

  The traffic prediction apparatus is weighted based on forecast weather information indicating the weather forecast of the holding time and past weather information indicating the weather forecast of the measurement time corresponding to the holding time. The information processing apparatus may further include means, and the output means may output information on the event location weighted by the weighting means.

The weighting means may weight the holding place based on whether or not a predetermined name is included in the scheduled event information acquired by the event information acquisition unit.
The weighting means may weight the venue based on the number of messages related to the scheduled event information acquired by the event information acquisition means.

The output means may output the past traffic information on condition that attribute information included in the scheduled event information indicates that the venue is not provided with a wireless local area network.
The output means may output the past traffic information based on attribute information included in the scheduled event information.

  The traffic information acquisition unit acquires, from the storage unit, the traffic information for the past plural years corresponding to the scheduled event information acquired by the event information acquisition unit, and the output unit is the traffic information acquisition unit. The traffic information for the plurality of past years acquired by may be output.

  According to a second aspect of the present invention, there is provided a traffic prediction program comprising: storing in a computer traffic information indicating traffic of a communication terminal; and a message posted to a service on a network including a predetermined keyword related to an event, Acquiring scheduled event information indicating an event scheduled to be held; acquiring the traffic information in the past corresponding to the acquired scheduled event information from the storage means for storing the traffic information; Outputting the past traffic information.

  A traffic prediction method according to a third aspect of the present invention is a computer-implemented step of storing traffic information indicating communication traffic of a communication terminal, and a message posted to a service on a network including a predetermined keyword relating to an event. Acquiring scheduled event information indicating an scheduled event to be held, and acquiring the past traffic information corresponding to the acquired scheduled event information from the storage means for storing the traffic information; Outputting the acquired past traffic information.

  A traffic prediction system according to a fourth aspect of the present invention includes the traffic prediction apparatus and a communication terminal that communicates with the traffic prediction apparatus, and the communication terminal transmits the message and the traffic information. Means for transmitting.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to improve the accuracy of predicting fluctuations in the amount of communication associated with an event.

It is a schematic diagram of the traffic prediction system concerning this embodiment. FIG. 2 is a block diagram of a traffic prediction apparatus according to the present embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of traffic information. It is a schematic diagram of the traffic prediction method which the traffic prediction apparatus which concerns on this Embodiment performs. It is a schematic diagram of the traffic prediction method which the traffic prediction apparatus which concerns on this Embodiment performs. It is a schematic diagram of the traffic prediction method which the traffic prediction apparatus which concerns on this Embodiment performs. It is a sequence diagram which shows the flow of operation | movement of the traffic prediction system which concerns on this Embodiment.

[Overview of Traffic Prediction System S]
FIG. 1 is a schematic view of a traffic prediction system S according to the present embodiment. The traffic prediction system S includes a message server 100, a plurality of communication terminals 200, a traffic prediction apparatus 300, and a plurality of base stations 10. The number of communication terminals 200 and base stations 10 included in the traffic prediction system S is not limited. The traffic prediction system S may include devices such as other servers and terminals.

  The base station 10 is a wireless base station device capable of performing wireless communication (mobile communication) such as LTE (Long Term Evolution). The base station 10 includes an antenna, a processor, an electric circuit, and other equipment necessary for wireless communication, and is wirelessly connected to the communication terminal 200 in a range (ie, cell) in which it can communicate. The base station 10 relays communication between the communication terminal 200 and the network N such as the Internet.

  The communication terminal 200 is a communication device capable of performing wireless communication such as LTE. The communication terminal 200 is, for example, a portable terminal such as a smartphone or a tablet terminal. Communication terminal 200 is wirelessly connected to base station 10 and communicates with network N via base station 10. Further, communication terminal 200 measures the amount of communication, measures its own position, and transmits it to traffic prediction apparatus 300. The communication terminal 200 also transmits a message input by the user to the message server 100 described later via the base station 10.

  The message server 100 is a computer that provides a message transmission / reception service including SNS (Social Networking Service). The message server 100 is connected to the network N by wire or wirelessly.

  The traffic prediction apparatus 300 is a computer that stores and manages traffic information indicating the amount of communication measured by the communication terminal 200. The traffic prediction apparatus 300 may acquire traffic information indicating the amount of communication measured by the base station 10 communicating with the communication terminal 200, and store the acquired traffic information. Also, the traffic prediction apparatus 300 acquires, from the message server 100, information based on a message posted by the user in the message transmission / reception service. The traffic prediction apparatus 300 is connected to the network N by wire or wirelessly.

[Configuration of Traffic Prediction Device 300]
FIG. 2 is a block diagram of a traffic prediction apparatus 300 according to the present embodiment. Arrows in FIG. 2 indicate the main data flow, and there may be data flows not shown in FIG. In FIG. 2, each block is not a hardware (apparatus) unit configuration but a function unit configuration. As such, the blocks shown in FIG. 2 may be implemented in a single device or may be implemented separately in multiple devices. Transfer of data between the blocks may be performed via any means such as a data bus, a network, a portable storage medium, and the like.

  The traffic prediction apparatus 300 includes a control unit 310, a communication unit 320, and a storage unit 330. The control unit 310 includes an acquisition unit 311, a determination unit 312, a weighting unit 313, and an output unit 314.

  The communication unit 320 is a communication interface for communicating between the message server 100 and the communication terminal 200 via the network N. The communication unit 320 includes a processor for performing communication, a connector, an electric circuit, and the like. The communication unit 320 performs predetermined processing on a communication signal received from the outside to acquire data, and inputs the acquired data to the control unit 310. In addition, the communication unit 320 performs predetermined processing on the data input from the control unit 310 to generate a communication signal, and transmits the generated communication signal to the outside.

  The storage unit 330 is a storage medium including a read only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a hard disk drive, and the like. The storage unit 330 stores in advance a program to be executed by the control unit 310. The storage unit 330 may be provided outside the traffic prediction apparatus 300, and in that case, data may be exchanged with the control unit 310 via the communication unit 320. The storage unit 330 also stores traffic information acquired from the communication terminal 200.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of traffic information. As shown in FIG. 3, the traffic information is information in which terminal identification information, a measurement location, a measurement time, the number of transmitted packets, and the number of received packets are associated.

  The terminal identification information is information for identifying the communication terminal 200, and is, for example, a MAC (Media Access Control) address. The measurement location is information indicating a location at which the communication terminal 200 has measured the amount of communication. Specifically, the measurement location is information indicating the position of the communication terminal 200 at the time of communication volume measurement measured by the communication terminal 200 using a positioning signal from a GPS satellite, and is, for example, coordinate information including latitude and longitude. . The measurement site may be an address or a facility name.

  The measurement time is information indicating the time when the communication terminal 200 measured the amount of communication. The measurement time may be a time when the communication terminal 200 has measured the communication amount, or may be a period from the measurement start time to the measurement end time. The number of transmission packets is information indicating the number of packets that the communication terminal 200 has transmitted to the outside via the communication unit 210 that the communication terminal 200 comprises at the measurement location, that is, information indicating the amount of uplink communication. The number of received packets is information indicating the number of packets that the communication terminal 200 has received from the outside at the measurement location via the communication unit 210, that is, the amount of downlink communication.

  Returning to FIG. 2, the control unit 310 is a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit), for example, and executes the program stored in the storage unit 330 to obtain an acquisition unit 311, a determination unit 312, a weighting unit 313, and an output. It functions as the unit 314. The functions of the acquisition unit 311, the determination unit 312, the weighting unit 313, and the output unit 314 will be described later using FIG. 4 to FIG. At least a part of the functions of the control unit 310 may be performed by an electrical circuit. In addition, at least a part of the functions of the control unit 310 may be executed by a program executed via a network.

[Description of traffic prediction method]
4 to 6 are schematic diagrams of the traffic prediction method performed by the traffic prediction apparatus 300 according to the present embodiment. FIG. 4 schematically shows on a map a point P at which the communication terminal 200 has measured the communication amount.

  The acquisition unit 311 of the traffic prediction apparatus 300 acquires traffic information indicating the amount of communication measured by the communication terminal 200 (a). The traffic information, as shown in FIG. 3, includes terminal identification information, a measurement location, a measurement time, the number of transmission packets, and the number of reception packets. The communication terminal 200 may measure the amount of communication in each communication, or may measure the amount of communication in communication when a predetermined time has elapsed since the previous measurement. The acquisition unit 311 stores the acquired traffic information in the storage unit 330 (b).

  The communication terminal 200 transmits a message input by the user to the message server 100 that provides a message transmission / reception service via the communication unit 210 included in the communication terminal 200. When the message server 100 acquires the message transmitted from the communication terminal 200 (c), the message server 100 stores the message in a storage unit (not shown) included in the message server 100 (d).

  FIG. 5 schematically shows the message acquired by the message server 100 from the communication terminal 200 on the display screen. The acquisition unit 311 searches for a message (for example, the messages M1 and M2 in FIG. 5) posted to a service on the network including a predetermined keyword related to an event via the communication unit 320 (e). For example, the acquiring unit 311 searches the message server 100 for a message including a word such as a festival, a festival, soccer, or an event as a predetermined keyword related to the event.

  The acquisition unit 311 acquires scheduled event information indicating an event scheduled to be held from the message indicated by the search result (f). Specifically, the acquisition unit 311 acquires information indicating at least a holding place and a holding time as holding scheduled event information. For example, from the message M1, the acquisition unit 311 sets “ABC Live” as the event name, “A concert hall” as the holding location, and “December 1, 2017 as the holding time as the scheduled event information. "00 to 21:00" is acquired. The acquiring unit 311 may acquire other information (for example, the weather on the day of the event, facility information of the artist performing at the event, the venue location, etc.) as the scheduled event information, as long as the information relates to the scheduled event. .

  FIG. 6 schematically shows on a map the point P at which the traffic volume indicated by the past traffic information stored in the storage unit 330 of the traffic prediction apparatus 300 is measured. The acquisition unit 311 acquires, from the storage unit 330, past traffic information corresponding to the acquired scheduled event information (g). Specifically, the acquisition unit 311 acquires, from the storage unit 330, past traffic information including the holding place and the measurement place corresponding to the holding time and the measurement time. More specifically, the acquisition unit 311 is traffic information including a measurement location that is the same location as the event location, and includes traffic information including a measurement time that is a predetermined time before the session time (eg, one year ago). , Acquired from the storage unit 330. At this time, when the measurement location included in the traffic information is coordinate information, the acquisition unit 311 is coordinate information included in the range of the venue converted into latitude and longitude as the measurement location which is the same as the venue. The traffic information of the measurement location is acquired from the storage unit 330.

  For example, it is assumed that the acquisition unit 311 acquires the scheduled event information from the message M1 illustrated in FIG. Further, it is assumed that the place A1 shown in FIG. 6 is an A concert hall. In this case, the acquisition unit 311 is measured at the event location “A Concert Hall” of the event name “ABC Live”, and the event time “ABC Live” is open on “December 1, 2017 18:00 to 21:00. The traffic information indicating the traffic measured at “18:00 to 21:00 on December 1, 2016,” which is one year before “a”, is acquired from the storage unit 330. The acquisition unit 311 performs communication according to an event scheduled to be held by acquiring past traffic information indicating the amount of communication including the location and time of the event scheduled to be held. It is possible to predict the fluctuation of quantity.

  Here, the acquisition unit 311 sums up the traffic volume indicated by the past traffic information including the holding place and the measuring place corresponding to the holding time and the measuring time. The acquisition unit 311 may sum the number of transmitted packets and the number of received packets shown in FIG. 3 or set the total value of the number of transmitted packets as the amount of uplink communication and the total value of the number of received packets as the amount of downlink communication. The number of transmitted packets and the number of received packets may be separately calculated.

  The acquisition unit 311 is not limited to the measurement time corresponding to the holding time being one year ago. The acquisition unit 311 includes traffic information including a measurement time that is a day one year ago (for example, the first Sunday of December 2016) corresponding to the day of the holding time (for example, the first Sunday of December 2017). , And may be acquired from the storage unit 330. The acquisition unit 311 may also acquire, from the storage unit 330, traffic information including a measurement time that is the same holiday one year ago corresponding to the held time, when the date of the held time is a public holiday. In addition, when the previous holding time is included in the message, the obtaining unit 311 may obtain, from the storage unit 330, traffic information including a measurement time corresponding to the previous holding time. The acquiring unit 311 is, for example, a case where a past time is included in the message, and a keyword indicating that it is a past time such as “previous year” or “last week” is included in the message, Traffic information including a measurement time that is the same time as the past time may be acquired from the storage unit 330.

  The acquisition unit 311 may acquire, from the storage unit 330, traffic information for a plurality of past years corresponding to the acquired scheduled event information. Specifically, the acquisition unit 311 may acquire, from the storage unit 330, traffic information indicating the amount of communication measured one year, two years, and three years before the holding time. The acquisition unit 311 may acquire traffic information for a plurality of past years corresponding to scheduled event information based on all traffic information stored in the storage unit 330, or for a predetermined period (for example, 5 years). Traffic information for a plurality of years in the past may be acquired.

  In this case, the acquisition unit 311 uses traffic information for the past plural years as traffic information for the past. The acquisition unit 311 may use, as traffic information for the past, traffic information for the past one year with the largest amount of traffic among traffic information for a plurality of past years. In addition, the acquisition unit 311 may use, as the traffic information in the past, the average value of the communication amounts indicated by traffic information for a plurality of past years.

  As described above, the acquiring unit 311 obtains the past traffic information (hereinafter referred to as “the first communication amount”) indicating the communication place (hereinafter referred to as “first communication amount”) measured in the measurement place and measurement time corresponding to the event place The first traffic information is acquired from the storage unit 330. Furthermore, the acquisition unit 311 is a measurement place corresponding to the event holding place, and traffic information in the past indicating the communication amount (hereinafter referred to as the second communication amount) measured in the measurement time not corresponding to the event holding time. (Hereinafter, referred to as past second traffic information) is acquired from the storage unit 330.

  Specifically, the acquisition unit 311 is a measurement location corresponding to the past first traffic information and the event location, and is at least before or after the measurement time corresponding to the event duration. The past second traffic information indicating the second traffic in a predetermined period of time is acquired from the storage unit 330. More specifically, the acquisition unit 311 is a measurement place corresponding to the past first traffic information and the place where the event is held, and is a measurement time of a day that does not correspond to the event hold time, and the event is held The past second traffic information indicating the second communication amount of the measurement time of the time zone corresponding to the time zone from the start time to the end time of the time is acquired from the storage unit 330.

  For example, it is assumed that the past first traffic information acquired by the acquisition unit 311 is the past first traffic information based on the message M1 illustrated in FIG. In this case, the acquisition unit 311 is the measurement place “A concert hall” which is the same place as the event holding place, and corresponds to the event holding time “December 1, 2017 18:00 to 21:00”. The second communication of the measurement time of the time zone corresponding to the time zone from the start time to the end time of the holding time of the event, which is the measurement time of the non-dated day The past second traffic information indicating the amount is acquired from the storage unit 330.

  Subsequently, the determination unit 312 of the traffic prediction apparatus 300 determines that the first communication volume indicated by the past first traffic information acquired by the acquisition unit 311 is the second communication indicated by the second traffic information acquired by the acquisition unit 311 in the past. It is determined whether the amount has been exceeded (h). For example, when the acquisition unit 311 divides the communication amount into the number of transmission packets and the number of reception packets and performs the total process, the determination unit 312 is the uplink communication amount indicated by the past traffic information acquired by the acquisition unit 311. It is determined whether or not the first amount of upstream communication has exceeded the second amount of upstream communication, which is the amount of upstream communication within a predetermined period before or during the measurement time corresponding to the holding time. May be

  Subsequently, the weighting unit 313 of the traffic prediction apparatus 300 performs weighting on the event location using various pieces of information (i). For example, the number of participants in the event may vary depending on the weather of the day. Therefore, the weighting unit 313 is based on forecasted weather information indicating the weather forecast of the holding time acquired from the server that manages external weather information, and past weather information indicating the weather forecast of the past measurement time corresponding to the holding time. , Weighting the venue.

  For example, when the weather at the event holding time is "fine" and the weather at the past measurement time corresponding to the event holding time is "rain", for example, the weighting unit 313 compares the event holding place with the past. It is weighted to indicate that the traffic information may increase from the traffic volume indicated by. On the contrary, when the weather at the event holding time is "rain" and the weather at the past measurement time corresponding to the event holding time is "fine", the weighting unit 313 compares the event holding place with Weighting is performed to indicate that the traffic volume may decrease from the traffic volume indicated by the past traffic information. By doing this, the weighting unit 313 can indicate that there may be fluctuations in the past traffic according to the weather.

  Also, for example, when a prominent artist appears in an event, the number of participants in the event may be large. Therefore, the weighting unit 313 may perform weighting on the venue based on whether or not the scheduled event information acquired by the acquisition unit 311 includes a predetermined name. The weighting unit 313 performs weighting, which indicates that the amount of communication may increase, for example, when the message includes the name of an artist who is famous as a performer of the event. By doing this, the weighting unit 313 can indicate that there is a possibility that the communication volume may increase more than usual by the appearance of a well-known artist who can attract customers.

  Also, for example, when the number of participants in an event is large, the number of postings of messages related to the event may be large. Therefore, the weighting unit 313 may perform weighting on the venue based on the number of messages related to the scheduled event information acquired by the acquisition unit 311. For example, it is assumed that the acquiring unit 311 acquires, as the scheduled event information, the number of postings of messages related to the event indicated by the scheduled event information. In this case, when the number of postings of the message exceeds a predetermined threshold (for example, 1000), the weighting unit 313 weights the holding place. Note that the number of posted messages includes reply to the message and transfer of the message. In the traffic prediction apparatus 300, a predetermined threshold is set in advance. By doing this, the weighting unit 313 can identify an event that is focused on the public, and can indicate that the amount of traffic may increase more than usual.

  Subsequently, the output unit 314 of the traffic prediction apparatus 300 outputs the traffic information in the past acquired by the acquisition unit 311 as traffic prediction information at the time of event holding (j). Specifically, on the condition that the determination unit 312 determines that the first communication amount has exceeded the second communication amount, the output unit 314 plans to hold past first traffic information indicating the first communication amount, and The event information and the information on the holding place weighted by the weighting unit 313 are output as traffic prediction information at the time of holding the event. By doing this, the output unit 314 outputs the traffic prediction information when the traffic volume indicated by the traffic information in the past corresponding to the scheduled event information is about the same as the traffic volume during normal times without events. It can be deterred.

  The output unit 314 may output information on a map as shown in FIG. 6 or may output it as a message. For example, when outputting information on a map as shown in FIG. 6, the output unit 314 displays a display location according to weighting of the place where the event is held as information on a point where the weighting unit 313 performs weighting (for example, Output with different colors, shapes, patterns, etc. by weighting. The output unit 314 may display the output information on a display (not shown) included in the traffic prediction apparatus 300, or may display the output information on a management terminal managed by the operator via the communication unit 320.

  The condition that the output unit 314 determines that the first uplink communication amount has exceeded the second uplink communication amount when the determining unit 312 performs the determination processing based on the first uplink communication amount and the second uplink communication amount Alternatively, traffic prediction information at the time of the event holding may be output, including the past first traffic information indicating the first upstream communication amount. In addition, when the acquiring unit 311 acquires traffic information for a plurality of past years, the output unit 314 uses, as traffic prediction information at the time of an event, traffic information for a plurality of past years based on the determination result by the determination unit 312. You may output it.

  The output unit 314 may output past traffic information based on attribute information (for example, the rule of the event, equipment) included in the scheduled event information. For example, in an event where camera photography is not permitted, the amount of communication may not increase. Therefore, the output unit 314 predicts traffic under the condition that the attribute information of the event indicates that the camera imaging is permitted or that the event attribute information does not include the information related to the camera imaging (prohibited matters etc.). Information may be output. Event attribute information may be obtained from a posted message, or may be obtained from a database defined in advance for each event. By doing this, the output unit 314 can output traffic prediction information that conforms to the rules of events and the like.

  Also, for example, even if there are a large number of people participating in the event, there is a possibility that the amount of communication will not increase if the event is equipped with a wireless local area network such as Wi-Fi (registered trademark). There is. Therefore, the output unit 314 may output the past traffic information on the condition that the attribute information included in the scheduled event information indicates that the wireless local area network is not provided at the venue. By doing this, the output unit 314 can output traffic prediction information according to the place where the event is held.

[Operation of Traffic Prediction System S]
FIG. 7 is a sequence diagram showing the flow of the operation of the traffic prediction system S according to the present embodiment. The communication terminal 200 transmits traffic information indicating the measured communication amount to the traffic prediction apparatus 300 via the communication unit 210 of the communication terminal 200. The timing at which the communication terminal 200 transmits traffic information to the traffic prediction apparatus 300 may be when the amount of communication is measured, or may be at a predetermined interval (for example, once a day). The acquisition unit 311 acquires traffic information transmitted from the communication terminal 200 and causes the storage unit 330 to store the acquired traffic information.

  The acquisition unit 311 searches the message server 100 for a message including a predetermined keyword related to the event (S11). The acquisition unit 311 may search for a message at a predetermined interval (for example, once an hour), or may change the predetermined interval according to the time (for example, at a time when a fireworks display and an athletic meet are held) The predetermined interval may be shortened, and the predetermined interval may be increased when there are few events. The acquisition unit 311 acquires scheduled event information from a message based on the search result.

  Subsequently, the acquisition unit 311 acquires past traffic information from the storage unit 330 (S12). Specifically, the acquisition unit 311 is traffic information including a measurement place that is the same place as the holding place, and first past traffic information indicating the first communication amount of the measurement time that is one year before the holding time. Is acquired from the storage unit 330. In addition, the acquisition unit 311 is a measurement place corresponding to the place where the event is held, and is a measurement time of a day that does not correspond to the hold time of the event, and in a time zone from the start time to the end time The second past traffic information indicating the second communication amount of the measurement time of the corresponding time zone is acquired from the storage unit 330.

  Subsequently, the determination unit 312 compares the first communication amount indicated by the first traffic information with the second communication amount indicated by the second traffic information (S13). If the determination unit 312 determines that the first communication amount is equal to or less than the second communication amount (in the case of NO in S14), the process ends. On the other hand, when the determining unit 312 determines that the first communication amount exceeds the second communication amount (in the case of YES in S14), the weighting unit 313 weights the event location using various information. Execute (S15). Then, the output unit 314 sets, as traffic prediction information at the time of event holding, the past first traffic information indicating the first communication amount, scheduled holding event information, and information on the holding place to which the weighting unit 313 performs weighting. It outputs (S16).

[Effect of this embodiment]
As described above, the traffic prediction apparatus 300 acquires past traffic information based on scheduled event information acquired from a message including a predetermined keyword related to an event, and outputs the acquired past traffic information as traffic prediction information. Do. According to such a configuration, the traffic prediction apparatus 300 can hold the event location and event even if the traffic volume associated with the scheduled event can not be predicted only by the message posted to the message server 100. By outputting the past communication volume measured at the measurement place and measurement time corresponding to time, the communication volume accompanying the event can be predicted. As a result, the telecommunications carrier can improve the accuracy of predicting fluctuations in the amount of communication associated with an event.

  As mentioned above, although the present invention was explained using an embodiment, the technical scope of the present invention is not limited to the range given in the above-mentioned embodiment, and various modification and change are possible within the range of the gist. is there. For example, a specific embodiment of device distribution and integration is not limited to the above embodiment, and all or a part thereof may be functionally or physically distributed and integrated in any unit. Can. In addition, new embodiments produced by any combination of a plurality of embodiments are also included in the embodiments of the present invention. The effects of the new embodiment generated by the combination combine the effects of the original embodiment.

REFERENCE SIGNS LIST 10 base station 100 message server 200 communication terminal 210 communication unit 300 traffic prediction apparatus 310 control unit 311 acquisition unit 312 determination unit 313 weighting unit 314 output unit 320 communication unit 330 storage unit

Claims (15)

Storage means for storing traffic information indicating the amount of communication of the communication terminal;
Event information acquisition means for acquiring scheduled event information indicating a scheduled event to be held from a message posted to a service on the network including a predetermined keyword related to the event;
Traffic information acquisition means for acquiring from the storage means the past traffic information corresponding to the scheduled event information acquired by the event information acquisition means;
An output unit that outputs the past traffic information acquired by the traffic information acquisition unit;
Traffic prediction apparatus comprising: The storage means stores the traffic information including a measurement location at which the communication amount is measured and a measurement time at which the communication amount is measured;
The event information acquisition unit acquires, as the scheduled event information, information indicating at least a holding place and a holding time,
The traffic information acquisition unit acquires, from the storage unit, the past traffic information including the holding place and the measurement place corresponding to the holding time and the measurement time.
The traffic prediction apparatus according to claim 1. The traffic information acquisition means is the traffic information including the measurement place which is the same place as the holding place, and the traffic information including the measurement time one year before the holding time from the storage means get,
The traffic prediction apparatus according to claim 2. The first communication amount, which is the communication amount indicated by the traffic information in the past acquired by the traffic information acquisition means, is a predetermined period before or during the measurement time corresponding to the holding time. A determination unit that determines whether or not the second communication amount, which is the communication amount, is exceeded;
The output unit outputs the past traffic information indicating a first communication amount, on the condition that the determination unit determines that the first communication amount has exceeded the second communication amount.
A traffic prediction apparatus according to claim 2 or 3. The determination unit is the measurement time of the day when the first communication amount does not correspond to the holding time, and the measurement time of a time zone corresponding to a time zone from the start time to the end time of the holding time It is determined whether or not a certain second communication amount has been exceeded.
The traffic prediction apparatus according to claim 4. The output means is configured such that a first upstream communication amount, which is the upstream communication amount indicated by the past traffic information acquired by the traffic information acquisition means, is earlier than the measurement time corresponding to the holding time or the measurement time The past traffic information indicating the first amount of upstream communication is output on condition that the second amount of upstream communication, which is the amount of upstream communication within a predetermined period in at least one of the subsequent periods, is exceeded.
A traffic prediction apparatus according to claim 4 or 5. Weighting means for weighting the holding location based on forecast weather information indicating the weather forecast of the holding time and past weather information indicating the weather forecast of the measurement time corresponding to the holding time, further comprising:
The output means outputs information on the event place weighted by the weighting means.
The traffic prediction apparatus according to any one of claims 2 to 6. The weighting means weights the holding place based on whether or not a predetermined name is included in the holding scheduled event information acquired by the event information acquiring means.
The traffic prediction apparatus according to claim 7. The weighting means weights the venue based on the number of messages related to the scheduled event information acquired by the event information acquisition means.
A traffic prediction apparatus according to claim 7 or 8. The output means outputs the past traffic information on condition that attribute information included in the scheduled event information indicates that the venue is not provided with a wireless local area network.
The traffic prediction device according to any one of claims 2 to 9. The output means outputs the past traffic information based on attribute information included in the scheduled event information.
The traffic prediction apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 10. The traffic information acquisition unit acquires, from the storage unit, the traffic information for the past plural years corresponding to the scheduled event information acquired by the event information acquisition unit.
The output means outputs the traffic information for the past plural years acquired by the traffic information acquisition means.
The traffic prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 11. On the computer
Storing traffic information indicating the amount of communication of the communication terminal;
Acquiring scheduled event information indicating a scheduled event to be held from a message posted to a service on the network including a predetermined keyword related to the event;
Acquiring the past traffic information corresponding to the acquired scheduled event information from storage means for storing the traffic information;
Outputting the obtained past traffic information;
Traffic forecasting program to execute. Computer runs,
Storing traffic information indicating the amount of communication of the communication terminal;
Acquiring scheduled event information indicating a scheduled event to be held from a message posted to a service on the network including a predetermined keyword related to the event;
Acquiring the past traffic information corresponding to the acquired scheduled event information from storage means for storing the traffic information;
Outputting the obtained past traffic information;
Traffic prediction method. A traffic prediction apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 12, and a communication terminal that communicates with the traffic prediction apparatus,
The traffic prediction system, wherein the communication terminal comprises transmission means for transmitting the message and the traffic information.

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