JP2018116603A - Index value estimation device and index value estimation method - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To estimate accurately and instantly an index value and its change, relative to a business activity such as a sales amount, a production quantity or a total stock of a monitoring target business person based on information acquirable more easily than accounting data.SOLUTION: An index value estimation device has a data collection part for collecting data on consumption or utilization of utility, and an index value estimation part for estimating and calculating an index value relative to business activity of a business person consuming or utilizing utility based on data collected by the collection part, and for calculating its variation by comparing a calculation result with an estimated value of the index in the past.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to an index value estimation device and an index value estimation method.

  Patent Document 1 states that “the present invention is a loan object by a creditor or a person entrusted by a creditor with a management server installed on a communication network such as the Internet, and on a monthly basis or a similar period unit. Upload accounting data processed by the company so that creditors and professional accountants (tax accountants, certified public accountants, etc.) can continuously monitor, and provided by the management server by creditors or professional accountants entrusted by the company Surveys are conducted in accordance with programmed survey procedures, and the survey results are recorded on the management server. Based on the accounting data processed by the company and the survey results, the monthly or In terms of period units or business year units similar to this, the quality of the performance calculated from the accounting data is graded (performance score), mainly accounting data. The quality of accounting credibility calculated from the results of surveys and professional accountants is scored (accounting credibility score), or the quality of corporate manager death risk coverage calculated mainly from the results of surveys by professional accountants It provides credit information monitoring and credit risk scoring methods characterized by timely and accurate measurement of the degree and change of a company's credit risk through scoring (necessary security scoring). Has been.

JP 2006-018816 A

  Businesses that provide financial services such as loans and leases regularly monitor the management status (revenue, expenses, profits, etc.) of business partners as credit management operations. Taking action to change.

  For example, in project finance, only the revenue generated by the project business that is the borrower and the assets held are collateral, so the quality of the project business management is directly linked to the company's revenue. Therefore, management status monitoring is particularly important.

  Management status monitoring involves the following issues: (a) accurate acquisition of management status and (b) immediate acquisition of changes in management status.

  In response to these problems, Patent Document 1 discloses that a loan provider uploads accounting data to a credit information monitoring system in units of months or equivalent periods, and the credit information monitoring system includes the accounting information. It describes a system that uses data to score the quality of performance and monitors the degree and change in credit risk.

  In order for a loan provider to upload accounting data to the credit information monitoring system as in this system, it is necessary to have equipment for that purpose. However, for example, small and medium-sized enterprises do not have such facilities. Therefore, there are business operators to which Patent Document 1 cannot be applied.

  Therefore, the present invention accurately determines the values of indicators related to business activities, such as sales, production volume, and inventory volume, and the amount of change based on information that is easier to obtain than accounting data. An apparatus for instantaneous estimation is provided.

  In order to solve the above problems, for example, the configuration described in the claims is adopted. The present invention includes a plurality of means for solving the above-described problems. For example, based on the data collected by the data collection unit, a data collection unit that collects data related to consumption or use of the utility. An index value estimation unit that estimates and calculates an index value related to a business activity of a business operator that consumes or uses the utility, and compares the calculation result with an estimated value of an index in the past, and calculates a change amount thereof. It is characterized by having.

  According to the present invention, based on information that can be obtained more easily than accounting data, the values of indicators related to business activities, such as sales, production volume, and inventory volume, and the amount of change are accurately determined. And it becomes possible to estimate immediately.

  Problems, configurations, and effects other than those described above will be clarified by the following description of embodiments.

3 is an example of a logical configuration diagram of an index value estimation apparatus according to Embodiment 1. FIG. It is an example of the block diagram of the electricity supply route in a provider, and the installation location of a measuring device. It is an example of the characteristic figure which shows the flow of the data processing result of an index value estimation apparatus. 1 is an example of an overall configuration diagram of a system in a first embodiment. It is an example of a block diagram of the memory | storage device of an index value estimation apparatus. It is an example of a block diagram of the memory | storage device of a utility consumption data management apparatus. It is an example of the table structure figure of the utility consumption data of an index value estimation apparatus. It is an example of the table block diagram of the correlation installation of an index value estimation apparatus. It is an example of the table block diagram of the regression model of an index value estimation apparatus. It is an example of the table block diagram of the past estimation result data of an index value estimation apparatus. It is an example of the flowchart which shows the process of a correlation installation operation estimation part. It is an example of the flowchart which shows the process of a correlation operation condition extraction part. It is an example of the flowchart which shows the process of an index value estimation part. It is an example of a display of the display screen of the estimation result of an index value estimation part. 10 is an example of a logical configuration diagram of an index value estimation apparatus according to Embodiment 2. FIG. It is an example of the table block diagram of the utility consumption data of the index value estimation apparatus in Embodiment 2. It is an example of the flowchart which shows the process of the correlation installation operation estimation part in Embodiment 2. It is an example of the whole block diagram of the system which shows an application example.

  Hereinafter, embodiments for carrying out the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

(Embodiment 1)
FIG. 1 is an example of a logical configuration diagram of the index value estimation device 1. The index value estimation device 1 includes a correlation facility specifying unit 17, a utility consumption data collection unit 18, a correlation facility operation estimation unit 19, and a correlation operation. The situation extraction unit 20, the index value estimation unit 21, the facility operation estimation unit 22, the correlation facility 138, and the regression model 139 are configured.

  The index value estimation device 1 estimates and calculates index values related to business activities such as the sales amount, production volume, and inventory volume of the operator, and calculates a change amount by comparing the calculation result with the estimated index value in the past. Device. The index described below refers to an index related to a business activity of a business operator such as sales, production volume, inventory volume, number of complaints, and service surrender rate.

  The index value estimation device 1 includes the business type information of a business subject to estimation of the index value, time-series consumption data of utilities such as electricity, gas, and water consumed by the business or cold water used by the business, Using utility data such as hot water, steam, and communication (data communication) in time series as input, the index value and the amount of change for the operator are estimated.

  The time-series consumption data of the utility is the amount of consumption of each utility such as electricity, gas, and water at each time. The consumption amount may be an instantaneous value at the time (for example, kW for electricity) or an integrated value (for example, kWh for electricity). The utility time-series usage data is the usage amount (consumption amount) of the utility at each time, such as cold water, hot water, steam, and communication (data communication).

  Moreover, the said consumption may be the measured value of the main body with which the some equipment is connected like Fig.2 (a). For example, when the company has a refrigerator 300, a food processor 302, and an indoor air conditioner 304 as the equipment of the business operator, and the consumption of each equipment is measured by the measuring instrument 308 via the distribution board 306, the measurement of the measuring instrument 308 is performed. A value can be used. Further, the consumption amount may be a measured value for each piece of equipment as shown in FIG. For example, a facility of a business operator that is connected to a distribution board 306 includes a refrigerator 300, a food processing device 302, and an indoor air conditioner 304, and the consumption of each facility is measured by 310, 312, 314, respectively. In the case of measuring with the measurement value, the measurement values of the measuring instruments 310, 312, and 314 can be used. At this time, smart meters that are becoming popular in the electric power business can collect the measurement values of the former case. In the following first embodiment, the former case will be described. The latter case will be described in the second embodiment.

  The index value estimation apparatus 1 can immediately detect a change in the index value by performing an estimation process every time the utility consumption data is acquired.

  Correlation equipment 138 includes, for each type of business, the name of the equipment that has a correlation between the business activity index such as sales, production volume, and inventory, and the equipment operation rate, and the utility consumed by correlation equipment 138. It is a database for managing information such as the type of operation mode having a correlation between the type and the operation mode of the correlation facility 138 between the index and the facility operation rate in each operation mode. The correlation facility 138 is a facility that mainly reflects the business activities (sales, production, inventory, etc.) of the operator. For example, when the industry is “food manufacturing”, the facility that mainly reflects the production activities is “food. The type of utility consumed by the equipment is “electricity”. Further, the operation mode having a correlation is a mode at the time of operation that makes a positive or negative contribution to the business activity. For example, the “standby mode” does not correspond. Details will be described with reference to FIG.

  The regression model 139 is a database that manages information such as a formula for calculating an index value related to business activity from the operating rate of equipment that mainly reflects the business activity of the business operator. The regression model 139 is a model created by performing regression analysis from the relationship between the past operation rate and the index value. Details will be described with reference to FIG.

  Correlated equipment specifying unit 17 receives business type information related to the business type of the business operator, and based on the information of correlated equipment 138, the equipment that mainly reflects the business activity of the business operator that estimates the index value, and the equipment consumed This is a processing unit that identifies the type of utility to be performed and the type of operation mode that contributes to business activities among the operation modes of the facility, and transmits the identified information to the correlated facility operation estimation unit 19.

  The utility consumption data collection unit 18 collects consumption data of a plurality of types of utilities such as electricity, gas, water, etc. consumed by the provider that estimates the index value, and transmits the collected consumption data to the correlation facility operation estimation unit 19. Is a processing unit.

  For example, the utility consumption data collection unit 18 collects consumption data of a plurality of types of utilities as shown in FIG.

  The correlation facility operation estimation unit 19 mainly reflects the consumption data of a plurality of types of utilities received from the utility consumption data collection unit 18 and the business activity of the business operator that estimates the index value received from the correlation facility identification unit 17. The processing unit estimates the operation status of the facility based on the facility to be used and the type of utility consumed by the facility, and transmits the estimation result to the correlated operation status extraction unit 20.

  This will be described with reference to the example of FIG. The processing of the correlation facility operation estimation unit 19 corresponds to (b), (c), and (d) in FIG.

  First, the correlation facility operation estimation unit 19 estimates the index value received from the correlation facility identification unit 17 from the consumption data (FIG. 3A) of a plurality of types of utilities acquired from the utility consumption data collection unit 18. The one corresponding to the type of utility consumed by the equipment that mainly reflects the business activity of the business operator is extracted (FIG. 3B).

  Then, the correlation facility operation estimation unit 19 transmits the consumption data of FIG. 3B to the facility operation estimation unit 22, and as a result, receives the operation status of each facility that has consumed the utility (FIG. 3C). )). The facility operation estimation unit 22 is a processing unit that estimates the time-series operation status of facilities that have consumed the utility from the consumption data of the utility. This processing technique is called disaggregation or NILM (Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring) in the field of electric power, and is described in, for example, Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2013-213825.

  After that, the correlation facility operation estimation unit 19 responds to the facility that mainly reflects the business activity of the business operator that estimates the index value received from the correlation facility identification unit 17 from the operation status of each facility in FIG. What to do is extracted (FIG. 3D). The correlation facility operation estimation process performed by the correlation facility operation estimation unit 19 will be described in detail with reference to FIG.

  The correlation operation status extraction unit 20 receives from the correlation facility specifying unit 17, the type of operation mode that contributes to the business activity of the facility that mainly reflects the business activity of the business operator who estimates the index value, and the correlation facility operation estimation unit. From the operating status of the equipment received from 19, the operating status contributing to the business activity of the equipment that mainly reflects the business activity is extracted (FIG. 3 (e)), and the extraction result is transmitted to the index value estimation unit 21. Is a processing unit.

  For example, as shown in FIG. 3 (e), the correlation operation status extraction unit 20 removes those in FIG. 3 (d) whose operation mode is “standby” because they do not contribute to business activities. The correlation operation status extraction process performed by the correlation operation status extraction unit 20 will be described in detail with reference to FIG.

  The index value estimation unit 21 calculates the operation rate from the operation status that has been received from the correlated operation status extraction unit 20 and that mainly reflects the business activity and contributed to the business activity, and based on the regression model 139, It is a processing unit that calculates an index value (index value) as an estimated value of the index. The processing unit calculates a change amount (estimated change amount) by comparing the calculated index value and an estimated value of the index in the past, and displays them on the screen. The index value estimation process performed by the index value estimation unit 21 will be described in detail with reference to FIG.

  FIG. 4 is an example of an overall configuration diagram of a system according to an embodiment for carrying out the present invention, and this system includes an index value estimation device 1, a utility consumption data management device 2, and a communication channel 500. Is done.

  In the example of FIG. 4, the financial service provider 3 that provides financial services such as loans and leases has the index value estimation device 1, and the supplier 4 has the utility consumption data management device 2. is there.

  The communication channel 500 connects the index value estimation device 1 and the utility consumption data management device 2 and the like. The communication path 500 is a standard communication path such as wired communication or wireless communication.

  The index value estimation device 1 accepts utility consumption data from the utility consumption data management device 2, and obtains index values relating to business activities such as sales, production volume, and inventory amount of the business owner that owns the utility consumption data management device 2. An estimation calculation is performed, and a change amount obtained by comparing the calculation result with an estimated value of the index in the past is calculated.

  The index value estimation device 1 includes at least a CPU 11, a memory 12, a storage device 13, an output device 14, an input device 15, and a communication interface 16. The communication interface 16 is an interface such as a wired LAN card or a wireless LAN card, and communicates with the utility consumption data management apparatus 2 via the communication path 500.

  The storage device 13 is, for example, a hard disk or a flash memory, and stores information such as programs and data. Data stored in the storage device 13 will be described later.

  The output device 14 is, for example, a display device, and displays the value of the index of the business operator who collected the utility consumption data and the result of estimating the amount of change. The output device 24 functions as a display unit that displays information from the output of the index value estimation unit 21. For example, by displaying the index value estimation result on the display screen 600 of FIG. Provides a function to monitor indicators related to business activities of business operators that have acquired certification.

  The input device 15 is, for example, a keyboard or a mouse, and the user can input an instruction or memo to the content displayed by the output device 14.

  Next, the utility consumption data management device 2 manages the consumption amount of the utility in the business that owns the device 2. Further, the consumption amount of the utility is periodically transmitted to the index value estimation device 1.

  The utility consumption data management device 2 includes at least a CPU 27, a memory 28, a storage device 23, an output device 24, an input device 25, and a communication interface 26. The communication interface 26 is an interface such as a wired LAN card or a wireless LAN card, and communicates with the index value estimation apparatus 1 via the communication path 500.

  The storage device 23 is, for example, a hard disk or a flash memory, and is a device that stores information such as programs and data.

  The output device 24 is a display device, for example, and displays consumption data of utilities managed by the display device.

  The input device 25 is, for example, a measuring instrument for collecting utility consumption data.

  FIG. 5 is an example of data stored in the storage device 13 of the index value estimation device 1. The storage device 13 includes at least a correlated facility identification program 131, a utility consumption data collection program 132, a correlated facility operation estimation program 133, a correlated operation state extraction program 134, an index value estimation program 135, and an facility operation estimation as programs. A program 136 is stored. The storage device 13 stores at least utility consumption data 137, correlation equipment 138, regression model 139, and past estimation result data 140 as data.

  The correlated facility specifying program 131 is read into the memory 12 and executed by the CPU 11 to implement the correlated facility specifying unit 17 (see FIG. 1).

  The utility consumption data collection program 132 is read into the memory 12 and executed by the CPU 11 to implement the utility consumption data collection unit 18 (see FIG. 1).

  The correlation facility operation estimation program 133 is read into the memory 12 and executed by the CPU 11 to implement the correlation facility operation estimation unit 19 (see FIG. 1).

  The correlated operation status extraction program 134 is read into the memory 12 and executed by the CPU 11, thereby realizing the correlated operation status extraction unit 20 (see FIG. 1).

  The index value estimation program 135 is read into the memory 12 and executed by the CPU 11 to implement the index value estimation unit 21 (see FIG. 1).

  The equipment operation estimation program 136 is read into the memory 12 and executed by the CPU 11 to implement the equipment operation estimation unit 22 (see FIG. 1).

  FIG. 6 is an example of data stored in the storage device 23 of the utility consumption data management device 2. The storage device 23 stores at least a utility consumption data collection program 231 as a program. The storage device 23 stores at least utility consumption data 232 as data.

  FIG. 7 is an example of a table configuration diagram of the utility consumption data 137 of the index value estimation apparatus 1. The utility consumption data 137 is a database that manages information related to consumption at each time for each utility such as electricity, gas, and water. The information is a collection of utility consumption data collected by the index value estimation device 1 from each utility consumption data management device 2.

  The utility consumption data 137 includes at least a utility data management device ID 137a, a utility type 137b, a connection facility name 137c, a time 137d, and a consumption 137e as items of a record.

  The utility data management device ID 137a stores a number that uniquely identifies the utility data management device 2.

  The utility type 137b stores the type of utility consumed by the business owner who owns the device uniquely specified by the utility data management device ID 137a. For example, “electricity”, “gas”, “water”, and the like.

  The name of the facility that consumes the utility of the utility type 137b is stored in the connection facility name 137c among the facilities owned by the business that owns the device uniquely specified by the utility data management device ID 137a.

  The time is stored in the time 137d. The consumption amount 137e includes the utility of the connection facility name 137c owned by the business owner who owns the device uniquely specified by the utility data management device ID 137a, and the utility of the utility type 137b at the time of the time 137d. The amount consumed is stored.

  The utility consumption data 137 is a collection of data held by the utility consumption data 232 in the storage device 23. Note that the record field of the utility consumption data 232 is the same as that of the utility consumption data 137, and a description thereof will be omitted.

  FIG. 8 is an example of a table configuration diagram of the correlation facility 138 of the index value estimation apparatus 1. Correlation equipment 138 includes, for each type of business, the name of the equipment that has a correlation between an index relating to business activities such as sales, production, and inventory, and the equipment availability, and the type of utility that the equipment consumes. And a database that manages information such as the type of operation mode that has a correlation between the index and the facility operation rate in each operation mode among the operation modes of the facility.

  The correlation facility 138 includes at least a business type 138a, an index type 138b, a facility name 138c, a consumption utility type 138d, and an operation mode 138e as items of a record.

  The industry type 138a stores the industry type of the operator whose index value is estimated. The index type 138b stores the type of index to be estimated. In the facility name 138c, the name of the facility having a correlation between the index of the index type 138b and the facility operation rate is stored for the business of the industry 138a.

  The consumption utility type 138d stores the type information of the utility consumed by the equipment having the equipment name 138c. The operation mode 138e stores an operation mode type having a correlation between the index of the index type 138b and the facility operation rate in each operation mode among the operation modes of the facility with the facility name 138c. .

  FIG. 9 is an example of a table configuration diagram of the regression model 139 of the index value estimation apparatus 1. The regression model 139 is a database that manages information such as a formula for calculating an index value related to business activity from the operating rate of equipment that mainly reflects the business activity of the business operator.

  The regression model 139 includes at least a utility data management device ID 139a, an index type 139b, and a model formula 139c as items of a record field.

  The utility data management device ID 139a stores a number that uniquely identifies the utility data management device 2.

  The index type 139b stores the type of index to be estimated. The model formula 139c includes a formula for calculating the index value of the index type 139b in the business that owns the utility data management apparatus 2 that is uniquely specified by the utility data management apparatus ID 139a from the operating rate of the equipment. Stored.

  FIG. 10 is an example of a table configuration diagram of the past estimation result data 140 of the index value estimation apparatus 1. The past estimation result data 140 is a database that manages information such as past estimation results of index values.

  The past estimation result data 140 includes at least a utility data management device ID 140a, a date and time 140b, an index type 140c, an estimated value 140d, an equipment name 140e, and an equipment operation rate 140f as items of a record field. It is out.

  The utility data management device ID 140a stores a number that uniquely identifies the utility data management device 2.

  The date and time is stored in the date and time 140b. The index type 140c stores the type of index to be estimated. In the estimated value 140d, the estimated value of the index of the index type 140c at the date and time of the date and time 140b is stored for the business operator who owns the device uniquely specified by the utility data management device ID 140a.

  The facility name 140e stores the name of the facility that mainly reflects the activity related to the index of the index type 140c.

  The facility operation rate 140f stores the facility operation rate used when calculating the estimated value 140d at the date and time of the date and time 140b for the business owner who owns the device uniquely specified by the utility data management device ID 140a. The

  FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing correlation facility operation estimation processing. This process is performed by the business facility in which the correlation facility operation estimation unit 19 estimates the index values received from the consumption data of a plurality of types of utilities received from the utility consumption data collection unit 18 and the correlation facility identification unit 17. Based on the equipment that mainly reflects the type of the utility consumed by the equipment, the time-series operation status of the equipment is estimated, and the estimation result is transmitted to the correlation operation status extraction unit 20. . The correlation facility operation estimation unit 19 is realized by the CPU 11 executing the correlation facility operation estimation program 133.

  In step S <b> 1900, the correlation facility operation estimation unit 19 starts the correlation facility operation estimation process by receiving consumption data of a plurality of types of utilities from the utility consumption data collection unit 18.

  In step S1901, the correlation facility operation estimation unit 19 acquires from the correlation facility identification unit 17 the type of utility consumed by the facility that mainly reflects the business activity.

  In step S1902, the correlation facility operation estimation unit 19 extracts the consumption data of the types of utilities acquired in step S1901 from the consumption data of the multiple types of utilities received in step S1900.

  In step S1903, the correlation facility operation estimation unit 19 transmits the utility consumption data extracted in step S1902 to the facility operation estimation unit 22, and as a result, acquires the operation status of each facility that has generated the consumption.

  In step S <b> 1904, the correlated facility operation estimating unit 19 acquires the name of the facility that mainly reflects the business activity from the correlated facility specifying unit 17.

  In step S1905, the correlation facility operation estimation unit 19 extracts the facility-related information acquired in step S1904 from the operation status of each facility estimated in step S1903.

  In step S1906, the correlated facility operation estimation unit 19 transmits the operation status of the facility extracted in step S1905 to the correlated operation status extraction unit 20, thereby ending the correlated facility operation estimation process.

  FIG. 12 is a flowchart showing the correlation operation status extraction process. The processing is performed by the correlation operation status extraction unit 20 from the correlation facility specifying unit 17 and the type of operation mode that contributes to the business activity of the facility that mainly reflects the business activity of the business operator who estimates the index value. From the operational status of the equipment received from the equipment operational estimation unit 19, the operational status of equipment that mainly reflects the business activity is extracted and the extracted result is transmitted to the index value estimation unit 21. It is. The correlated operation status extraction unit 20 is realized by the CPU 11 executing the correlated operation status extraction program 134.

  In step S2000, the correlated operation status extraction unit 20 receives the operation status of the facility that mainly reflects the business activity from the correlated facility operation estimation unit 19, and starts the correlated operation status extraction process.

  In step S2001, the correlated operation status extraction unit 20 acquires from the correlation facility specifying unit 17 the type of operation mode that makes a positive or negative contribution to the business activity.

  In step S2002, the correlated operation status extraction unit 20 extracts the operation status in the operation mode acquired in step S2001 from the operation status of the equipment received in step S2000.

  In step S2003, the correlated operation status extraction unit 20 transmits the operation status extracted in step S2002 to the index value estimation unit 21, thereby ending the correlated facility status extraction process.

  FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing the index value estimation process. In this process, the index value estimation unit 21 calculates the operation rate from the operation status that has been received from the correlated operation status extraction unit 20 and contributes to the business activity of the equipment that mainly reflects the business activity, and calculates the regression model 139. Based on this, the index value (index value) is calculated. Further, a change amount obtained by comparing the calculated index value with an estimated value of the index in the past is calculated, and these are displayed on the screen to the user. The index value estimation unit 21 is embodied by the CPU 11 executing the index value estimation program 135.

  In step S <b> 2100, the index value estimation unit 21 starts the index value estimation process by receiving, from the correlated operation status extraction unit 20, the operation status that contributes to the business activity of the equipment that mainly reflects the business activity.

  In step S2101, the index value estimation unit 21 calculates an operation rate for a certain period such as a week or a month based on the operation status received in step 2101.

  In step S2102, the index value estimation unit 21 estimates the index value using the calculation formula acquired from the regression model 139 based on the operating rate calculated in step 2102.

  In step S2103, the index value estimation unit 21 acquires the past data of the index calculated in step S2102 from the past estimation result data 140. For example, the index value in the same period of last year, the index value in the most recent months, and the like.

  In step S2104, the index value estimation unit 21 calculates the amount of change by comparing the index value calculated in step S2102 with the past estimated value of the index acquired in step S2103.

  In step S2105, the index value estimation unit 21 displays the index value calculated in step S2102, the change amount calculated in step S2103, and the like on the screen, thereby ending the index value estimation process.

  The screen displayed to the user is, for example, as shown in FIG. The display screen 600 of the output device 14 includes information relating to a business (information including company name and business type) 602, information relating to an index (information including items, production amount, and inventory amount) 604, information relating to utility consumption data ( Information on the operation mode of the equipment) 606 is displayed, and when the amount of change in the index or the amount of change in the equipment operation rate is greater than a preset threshold value, information 608 regarding the warning is displayed to the user. The Note that the warning may not be displayed on the screen but may be delivered by push-type delivery to the user by e-mail or the like. In addition, when the index value deteriorates, it is possible to take measures such as (a) instructing a salesperson to visit a company, the salesperson visiting the company, or (b) raising a loan.

  In addition, the display screen 600 can display not only the estimated index value but also the consumption amount of the utility and the operating state of the equipment, which are the basis of the estimation calculation. Thereby, the user can be given a sense of satisfaction with the estimation result.

  In Embodiment 1 described above, rather than estimating the value of an index relating to business activities directly from utility consumption data itself, facilities that mainly reflect business activities are identified from utility consumption data, and their operations are started. The part which contributes to business activity is extracted from the situation, the operation rate is calculated, and the index value is estimated from the operation rate. Therefore, the index value can be estimated with higher accuracy than the former method.

  In particular, when the estimated result is compared with the past estimated result as in step S2104, the consumption of other equipment that consumes the utility may differ between the present and the past. The accuracy decreases. An example will be described with reference to FIG. Consumption of indoor air conditioning varies depending on the temperature of the year. Therefore, if the index value is estimated from the combined consumption data of food processing equipment, indoor air conditioners, and refrigerators, it is affected by the operation of indoor air conditioners that do not mainly reflect business activities. The comparison cannot be made, and the calculation accuracy of the change amount is lowered. Therefore, the configuration of the first embodiment is useful particularly when calculating the change amount of the index value.

  According to the first embodiment, on the basis of information that can be obtained more easily than accounting data, the values of indicators related to business activities such as sales, production volume and inventory volume of the monitoring target company, and changes thereof The quantity can be estimated accurately and immediately.

(Embodiment 2)
In the first embodiment, the utility consumption data is the measurement value of the main unit where a plurality of facilities are connected as shown in FIG. 2A. However, as shown in FIG. It may be a measured value.

  In the second embodiment, a case where a measured value for each facility is acquired as utility consumption data will be described.

  FIG. 15 is an example of a logical configuration diagram of the index value estimation apparatus 1A according to the second embodiment. The index value estimation apparatus 1A includes a correlation facility specifying unit 17, a utility consumption data collection unit 18A, and a correlation facility operation estimation unit. 19A, a correlation operation status extraction unit 20, an index value estimation unit 21, a facility operation estimation unit 22, a correlation facility 138, and a regression model 139.

  The utility consumption data collection unit 18A collects the consumption data of utilities such as electricity, gas, water, etc. consumed by each facility owned by the business operator that estimates the index value, and the collected consumption data is correlated with the facility operation estimation unit 19A. It is a processing part which transmits to.

  The collected data is, for example, as shown in FIG. FIG. 7 is different from FIG. 7 in that the connection facility name 137c is the name of one facility.

  The correlation facility operation estimation unit 19A mainly reflects the utility consumption data received from the utility consumption data collection unit 18A and the business activity of the business operator that estimates the index value received from the correlation facility identification unit 17. And a processing unit that estimates the operation status of the facility based on the facility to be transmitted and transmits the estimation result to the correlated operation status extraction unit 20.

  FIG. 17 is a flowchart illustrating correlation facility operation estimation processing according to the second embodiment. The processing in step S1900 is the same as that in FIG.

  In step S1901A, the correlated facility operation estimating unit 19A acquires the name of the facility that mainly reflects the business activity from the correlated facility specifying unit 17.

  In step S1902A, the correlated facility operation estimation unit 19A extracts the consumption data of the facility having the name acquired in step S1901A from the utility consumption data of each facility received in step S1900.

  In step S1903A, the correlated facility operation estimation unit 19A transmits the utility consumption data extracted in step S1902A to the facility operation state estimation unit 22, and acquires the operation state of the facility as a result.

  In step S1906A, the correlated facility operation estimation unit 19A transmits the operation status of the facility extracted in step S1903A to the correlated operation status extraction unit 20, thereby ending the correlated facility operation estimation process.

  According to the second embodiment, the same effect as in the first embodiment can be obtained, and the measured value for each piece of equipment can be used as utility consumption data.

  As mentioned above, although the form for implementing this invention was demonstrated concretely, this invention is not limited to this, A various change is possible in the range which does not deviate from the summary.

  For example, in FIG. 4, the index value estimation device 1 and the utility consumption data management device 2 operate stand-alone, but a user terminal is prepared and the functions of each device are used via this user terminal. You can also

  FIG. 18 is a configuration diagram in which the index value estimation device 1, the utility consumption data management device 2, and the user terminal 9 are connected through a communication path 500. The user terminal 9 includes a CPU 91, a memory 92, a storage device 93, an output device 94, an input device 95, and a communication interface 96. Thereby, the user can use the information generated by the index value estimation device 1 from the communication interface 96 of the user terminal 9 via the network 500. Alternatively, information can be transmitted to the index value estimation device 1.

  In the example of FIG. 18, an index value estimation service provider 5 that provides an index monitoring service related to business activities such as sales, production volume, and inventory volume has the index value estimation device 1 and uses this service. The provider 3 is configured to access the index value estimation device 1 from the owned user terminal 9 and use the monitoring service.

  In the first embodiment, in FIG. 4, the financial service provider 3 that provides financial services such as loans and leases has the index value estimation device 1, and the supplier 4 is the utility consumption data. Although the configuration is such that the management device 2 is owned, there is a configuration in which a part of the processing unit of the index value estimation device 1 exists on the side of the business operator that owns the utility consumption data management device 2.

  For example, the correlation facility specifying unit 17, the utility consumption data collection unit 18, the correlation facility operation estimation unit 19, the correlation operation state extraction unit 20, and the facility operation estimation unit 22 of the index value estimation device 1 are used for utility consumption. There is also a configuration that exists on the side of the business that owns the data management device 2. In this configuration, since it is not necessary to send the consumption data of the utility itself to the communication path 500, the load on the communication path can be reduced.

  In the first and second embodiments, as the utility consumption data, the consumption amount of electricity, the consumption amount of gas, the consumption amount of water, and the like are described. However, not only the consumption data but also utilization data may be used. For example, the usage amount of cold water or hot water or steam supplied by a heat supply company using a district air conditioning system or the like may be used. Further, it may be a data communication amount of a communication network such as a fixed phone, a mobile phone, and optical communication.

  In the first and second embodiments, sales, production volume, and inventory volume are increased as indices related to business activities. However, the number of complaints, service churn rate, and the like may be used.

  The number of complaints and the service cancellation rate can be estimated from, for example, the number of incoming calls to the inquiry number or the cancellation acceptance number.

  Further, in the first embodiment, in FIG. 13, the index value estimation unit 21 calculates the operation rate from the operation status of the equipment that mainly reflects the business activity and contributed to the business activity, and the regression model 139 The value of the index was calculated based on the information, but the time zone that should be operated in advance was defined as master information, and whether the index was good or bad depending on whether or not the operating status satisfied the condition. It can also be judged.

  For example, in the “restaurant”, the equipment that mainly reflects the business activity is the “gas stand”, but the “business activity” acquired by the index value estimation unit 21 in the “business hours” that is the time zone to be operated. If the operating status of the equipment that reflects mainly the operation status that contributes to the business activity is not in operation, it is understood that the business activity is not good.

  In the first embodiment, the regression model 139 in FIG. 1 is a model created in advance by regression analysis from the relationship between the past operation rate and the index value. It is also possible to periodically update the model by acquiring the estimated actual value of the index and the actual value of the equipment operation rate.

  Further, in the first embodiment, the correlation facility 138 in FIG. 1 has a correlation between an index relating to a business activity such as sales, production amount, and inventory amount and a facility operation rate for each type of business of the operator. The name of the equipment, the type of utility consumed by the equipment, the type of operation mode that has a correlation between the index and the equipment operation rate in each operation mode among the operation modes of the equipment, etc. However, the correlation coefficient is periodically calculated based on the actual value of the index estimated by the index value estimation device 1 and the actual value of the equipment operation rate, and the correlation is low. In this case, the contents of the correlation facility 138 can be updated to information on another facility having a high correlation.

  In the first and second embodiments, only the consumption data of the utility is used. However, the consumption data may be combined with other data such as human sensor detection data and weather data.

Moreover, the following can be understood from the consumption data of the utility.
(A) Device usage (If the utility consumption data has a pulse-like waveform, the equipment is ramped up violently)
(B) Organizational culture and culture (detection of light extinction from utility consumption data. Companies that turn off frequently are regularly good cultures, etc.)
As an application destination of (a), for example, it can be used to determine what kind of person the leasing company is using while renting a leased product.
For example, (b) can be used as one of evaluation axes when credit of the entire company is evaluated by credit examination.

  17 Correlated equipment specifying section, 18, 18A Utility consumption data collecting section, 19, 19A Correlated equipment operation estimating section, 20 Correlated operation status extracting section, 21 Index value estimating section, 22 Equipment operating estimating section, 138 Correlated equipment, 139 regression model

Claims (15)

A data collection unit that collects data related to the consumption or use of the utility;
Based on the data collected by the data collection unit, the value of an index related to the business activity of a business operator that consumes or uses the utility is estimated, and the calculated result is compared with the estimated value of the index in the past. And an index value estimating unit for calculating a change amount. The indicator is
The index according to claim 1, comprising at least one of sales, production, inventory, number of complaints, and service churn rate in the business activity of the business operator. Value estimation device. Data on consumption of the utility is:
Consists of consumption data indicating at least one of the consumption of electricity, the consumption of gas, and the consumption of water,
Data regarding the use of the utility is:
The index value according to claim 1, comprising usage data indicating at least one usage amount among a usage amount of cold water, a usage amount of hot water, a usage amount of steam, and a usage amount of communication. Estimating device. It is data collected by the data collection unit, and the time series of facilities mainly reflecting the business activity of the operator from the data on consumption or use of the plurality of types of utilities and the industry information of the operator It has a correlation equipment operation estimation unit that estimates the operation status,
The index value estimation unit
The index value estimation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the index value is estimated and calculated based on an estimation result of the correlation facility operation estimation unit. From the estimation result of the correlation facility operation estimation unit, a correlation operation status extraction unit that extracts a time-series operation status that contributed to the business activity of the operator,
The index value estimation unit
The index value estimation apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the index value is estimated and calculated based on an extraction result of the correlation operation status extraction unit. The index value estimation unit
Based on the estimation result of the correlation facility operation estimation unit, the facility operation rate mainly reflecting the business activity of the operator is calculated, and the past operation rate and the past index value are regressively analyzed in advance. The index value estimation apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the index value is calculated using a created model. The index value estimation unit
Based on the estimation result of the correlation facility operation estimation unit, the operation status of the facility mainly reflecting the business activity of the operator is compared with the operation rules defined in advance, and the business activity of the operator is The index value estimation apparatus according to claim 4, wherein whether the index is good or bad is determined based on whether or not the operation status of the facility reflected in the condition satisfies the operation rule. The index value estimation unit
Based on the extraction result of the correlated operation status extraction unit, the operation rate of the equipment is calculated from the time-series operation status of the equipment that has contributed to the business activity out of the equipment that mainly reflects the business activity of the operator. The index value estimation apparatus according to claim 5, wherein the index value is calculated using a model created in advance by performing regression analysis of the operating rate and the index value in the past. The index value estimation unit
Based on the extraction result of the correlation operation status extraction unit, compare the time-series operation status of equipment that has contributed to the business activity out of the equipment that mainly reflects the business activity of the operator and the operation rules defined in advance. The index value estimation according to claim 5, wherein whether the index is good or bad is determined based on whether or not an operation status of the equipment that has contributed to the business activity of the operator satisfies the operation rule. apparatus. It further has a display unit for displaying information by the output of the index value estimation unit,
The display unit
As the calculation result of the index value estimator, the estimated value of the index that is the value of the index, and the change amount of the index indicating the comparison result between the estimated value of the index and the estimated value of the index in the past are displayed. The index value estimation device according to claim 1, wherein The display unit
Information that is the basis of the estimation calculation of the index value estimation unit, and displays information related to the consumption or usage of the utility, and information related to the operation status of the facility based on the estimation result of the correlated facility operation estimation unit The index value estimation apparatus according to claim 10, wherein: The index value estimation unit
The information on the warning is displayed on the display unit when the change amount of the index is larger than a threshold value, and the information on the warning is push-distributed to the user terminal. The index value estimation device described. A data collection step for collecting data relating to the consumption or use of the utility;
Based on the data collected by the data collection step, estimate the value of the business activity of the business operator consuming or using the utility, and compare the calculation result with the estimated value of the index in the past An index value estimation step for calculating a change amount, and an index value estimation method. The data collected by the data collection step, and the time series of the equipment that mainly reflects the business activity of the operator from the data related to consumption or use of the plurality of types of utilities and the industry information of the operator. A correlation facility operation estimation step for estimating the operation status;
In the index value estimating step,
The index value estimation method according to claim 13, wherein the index value is estimated and calculated based on an estimation result of the correlation facility operation estimation step. From the estimation result of the correlated facility operation estimation step, a correlated operation status extraction step for extracting a time-series operation status that contributed to the business activity of the operator,
In the index value estimating step,
The index value estimation method according to claim 14, wherein the index value is estimated and calculated based on an extraction result of the correlated operation status extraction step.

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