JP2017166977A - Information processing device, information processing method, and program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an information processing device, an information processing method, and a program capable of performing appropriate wave height prediction.SOLUTION: An information processing device includes means for accepting input of temporal progress of each wave height displacement at a plurality of observation points measured by a plurality of observation systems spatially distributed around a target point, and prediction means for predicting a wave height displacement at the target point using the temporal progress of each wave height displacement at the plurality of observation points.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

  Some aspects according to the present invention relate to an information processing apparatus, an information processing method, and a program for predicting the height of waves in the ocean, for example.

  In recent years, ocean development has been progressing, for example, investigation and excavation of underground resources, and power generation on the ocean. As one of the challenges in ocean development, there may be a decrease in efficiency and the impact on safety due to floating body sway caused by waves. For example, when carrying cargo on a ship with a crane, if the hull is greatly shaken by a high wave when the cargo is lowered onto the ship, the operation of the cargo cannot be sufficiently controlled, and there is a risk of causing the cargo to fall. As a means for avoiding such problems, floating body motion prediction is expected, but for this purpose, it is first necessary to predict the individual waves that affect the floating body every moment.

  In order to measure the wave height of waves, buoys have been widely used. For example, Patent Document 1 describes that a buoy is provided with KGPS measuring means for obtaining longitude, latitude, and height, thereby obtaining the wave height of the buoy.

JP 2004-191268 A

  However, although the method described in Patent Document 1 discloses measuring the wave height, it does not take into account the prediction of the individual wave height. In particular, ocean waves arrive at different speeds from various directions towards the target. Even when a large wave is not observed on the ocean, a large wave height may be generated at the point of the target object by accidentally overlapping a plurality of waves.

  Some aspects of the present invention have been made in view of the above-described problems, and an object thereof is to provide an information processing apparatus, an information processing method, and a program that enable suitable wave height prediction.

  An information processing apparatus according to one aspect of the present invention receives input of time lapses of wave height displacements at a plurality of observation points, which are measured by a plurality of observation devices arranged spatially distributed around a target point. Means, and predicting means for predicting the wave height displacement at the target point using the passage of time of the wave height displacement at the plurality of observation points.

  An information processing method according to one aspect of the present invention includes a step of receiving input of time lapse of wave height displacement at a plurality of observation points measured by a plurality of observation devices arranged around a target point; The information processing apparatus performs the step of predicting the wave height displacement at the target point using the time lapse of the wave height displacement at the observation point.

  The program which concerns on 1 aspect of this invention is the process which receives the input of the time passage of the wave height displacement in the several observation point measured by the several observation apparatus arrange | positioned around the target point, and the said several observation point The information processing apparatus is caused to execute processing for predicting the wave height displacement at the target point using the time lapse of the wave height displacement at.

  In the present invention, “part”, “means”, “apparatus”, and “system” do not simply mean physical means, but “part”, “means”, “apparatus”, “system”. This includes the case where the functions possessed by "are realized by software. Further, even if the functions of one “unit”, “means”, “apparatus”, and “system” are realized by two or more physical means or devices, two or more “parts” or “means”, The functions of “device” and “system” may be realized by a single physical means or device.

It is a figure for demonstrating the external appearance of the observation system which concerns on embodiment. It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of the information processing apparatus which concerns on embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of a process of the information processing apparatus shown in FIG. It is a specific example of a prediction result of wave height. It is a block diagram which shows the specific example of the hardware constitutions which can mount the information processing apparatus shown in FIG.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. However, the embodiment described below is merely an example, and there is no intention to exclude various modifications and technical applications that are not explicitly described below. That is, the present invention can be implemented with various modifications without departing from the spirit of the present invention. In the following description of the drawings, the same or similar parts are denoted by the same or similar reference numerals. The drawings are schematic and do not necessarily match actual dimensions and ratios. In some cases, the dimensional relationships and ratios may be different between the drawings.

  1 to 5 are diagrams for explaining the embodiment. Hereinafter, embodiments will be described along the following flow with reference to these drawings. First, the outline of the information processing apparatus and the observation system according to the embodiment will be described with “1” and “2”. Subsequently, in “3”, “4”, and “5”, a functional configuration of the information processing apparatus, a wave height prediction method, and a specific example of a prediction result will be described. “6” describes the flow of processing of the information processing apparatus, and “7” describes a specific example of a hardware configuration capable of realizing the information processing apparatus. Finally, after “8”, the effects according to the embodiment and other embodiments will be described.

(1. Overview)
In recent years, for example, development of submarine resources such as methane hydrate and marine renewable energy has progressed, and accordingly, various operations on a ship (floating body) are being performed. If the floating body is shaken by waves (hereinafter simply referred to as waves), it will greatly affect work and safety on the ship.

  Conventionally, using a statistical method, a method for predicting the maximum height of a wave that arrives for a relatively long time width such as 2 to 3 hours is known. ing. In this case, for example, by taking a technique such as stopping the work in a time zone where a high wave may arrive, the work safety can be ensured. However, even if there is a possibility that a wave that may have a great influence on the work may arrive, for example, such a wave appears only once or several times in the time period, but for this reason, it is 2-3. If the work is stopped during the entire time period, work efficiency is greatly reduced.

  Therefore, as a means for avoiding or reducing such an effect, floating body fluctuation prediction at an individual time is expected. First, it is necessary to predict the wave height of an individual wave that affects the floating body every moment. Furthermore, for this prediction, it is necessary to measure the surrounding wave height.

  As a method for measuring and predicting the wave height, for example, after measuring the wave height remotely using an X-band radar or the like installed in an offshore structure such as a floating body, the wave height is predicted from the measured value. It is also possible to do. However, with X-band radar measurement, it is possible to observe statistical characteristics such as the significant wave height, significant period, and wave direction of the wave field, but since it is a remote measurement to the last, The observation accuracy for the individual wave height is low because it becomes difficult to measure if it enters. In order to conduct wave observation with high accuracy, direct observation at the site using buoys is desirable, but mooring installation of the observation system is not easy, so it is economical for use in short-term operations such as within a few months. Difficult to implement due to technical problems. For this reason, it has not been possible to install multiple buoys or other observation devices in one sea area.

  However, in the ocean, waves with various spectra, such as swells and wind waves, attack from multiple directions, and therefore, observation at multiple spatially dispersed points is necessary for the prediction. Therefore, in the embodiment described below, a plurality of movable objects such as drones equipped with a measuring instrument for measuring the displacement of the wave height are moved to predetermined spatially different positions around the target for which the wave height is predicted. Let By displacing and floating these movable objects on the sea at a predetermined position, the displacement of the wave height is measured by a measuring instrument included in the movable object. If prediction of the wave height is no longer necessary, such as the end of work on the target (floating body), a movable object such as a drone may be moved again and collected. This method is very economical because it can easily measure the wave height (hereinafter referred to as wave height including wave height displacement) at multiple observation points without installation work such as fixed buoys. It is possible to reduce the influence.

  In the present embodiment, the individual wave height at a target point (target point) where the target is located is predicted from the wave height data measured at a plurality of observation points in this way. Ocean waves have the characteristic that the phase velocity depends on the frequency (wave dispersibility). In addition, since the spectrum of ocean waves has both a frequency and an angle, and changes with time, the prediction algorithm is more complicated than earthquake prediction in which characteristics such as geology are determined as fixed values. In particular, in the present embodiment, the wave height of a wave having directional dispersion is predicted instead of a one-dimensional wave having no directional distribution or small directional dispersion such as a wave reaching the coastline.

  As a result, the individual wave height at the target can be predicted. For example, when the wave height is expected to increase after 30 seconds, the operation is stopped for a short time, for example, about 30 seconds to 1 minute before and after that time. By doing so, it is possible to reduce the influence on work efficiency while ensuring safety.

  In addition, although this embodiment demonstrates centering on the case where a measuring device is arrange | positioned in a predetermined position by several drones, it is not restricted to this. For example, it is conceivable to move a plurality of observation points on a small ship and float a buoy or the like at each point. However, if the observation device is arranged using a drone or the like, it is possible to reduce the time cost for arranging and collecting a plurality of units simultaneously.

(2. Arrangement example of observation equipment)
A specific example of the observation system 1 in the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. In FIG. 1, it is assumed that the individual wave height at the approximate center of the target T, which is a floating body such as a ship, is predicted. The user first has drones d _{1 to} d _n (hereinafter also collectively referred to as drone d) each equipped with a measuring instrument for measuring the wave height and a position measuring device such as GPS for specifying the position. It flies around the target T, and the drone d is landed at an appropriate position so that the drones d are arranged at different spatial positions. In the following description, the polar coordinates of the center of the target T (hereinafter also referred to as a target point) are (0, 0), and the polar coordinates of the drone d _m are (R _m , θ _m ).

In the example of FIG. 1, the drone d is arranged around the right side of the target T over 180 degrees, but the present invention is not limited to this. In the example of FIG. 1, the waves w ₁ and w ₂ (hereinafter collectively referred to as the wave w) come from the right side of the target T, and therefore are arranged on the right side of the drone d. When waves arrive from all directions of T, the drone d may be arranged over 360 degrees around the target T. In addition, when the direction of the wave w arriving at the target T is biased in a certain direction, it may be possible to narrow the angle at which the drone d is disposed to 90 degrees, 45 degrees, or the like.

  The number of drones d arranged is arbitrary, but if there are about five or more, it is possible to predict the wave height suitably. Further, in the example of FIG. 1, each drone d is arranged on a substantially circumference of the same radius with the target T as the center, but it is not always necessary to arrange it on the circumference of the same radius. However, in order to predict appropriately, it is necessary to measure the wave w sufficiently before the wave w reaches the target T. The predicted time window depends on the distance from the target T to the observation point (the position of the drone d). Therefore, for example, an estimated time window of 30 seconds is required, and if the average period of the wave w is 10 seconds, the observation point needs to be separated from the target T by about 1 km or more.

(3. Functional configuration of information processing apparatus 100 for predicting wave height)
Hereinafter, the functional configuration of the information processing apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. The information processing apparatus 100 is installed on the target T, for example, and predicts the individual wave height of the target T based on the wave height measurement data 121 measured by the drone d. At this time, the information processing apparatus 100 is discrete in time after a predetermined time (for example, 30 seconds later) in the measurement time zone at the point of the target T spatially separated from the measurement point where the drone d measured the wave height. It is possible to predict the individual wave height of the time.

  The input unit 111 receives the measurement data 121 measured by the drone d. For example, the input unit 111 receives the measurement data 121 corresponding to the time transition of the wave height at the observation point of the drone d sequentially from the drone d by sequentially performing wireless communication with the drone d. The input measurement data 121 is stored in a database (DB) 120.

  The prediction unit 113 predicts the wave height of the target point using the measurement data 121 related to the time transition of the wave height observed by the drone d. A specific example of the wave height prediction method will be described in detail in “4.

  The output unit 115 outputs the predicted individual wave height at the target point. Various output methods by the output unit 115 are conceivable. For example, an expected wave height may be displayed on the display, or when a wave height exceeding a predetermined threshold is expected, such as an audio warning or the like. It is also possible to notify the effect.

  The database (DB) 120 manages the measurement data 121. The measurement data 121 can include information such as position information (coordinate information) of each drone d, measurement time, and wave height at the time.

(4. Wave height prediction method)
Hereinafter, a prediction method for predicting the individual wave height at the target point will be described.
Assuming an unknown disturbance in a circle of radius l representing the wave source, the velocity potential in the frequency domain is expressed as follows.

Here, Φ is a velocity potential (m ² / s), ω is a wave frequency (rad / s), and G (x, y, z, x ′, y ′, z ′, ω) is It is a green function (Wave Green's function). Here, if l is infinite, only the free wave component remains. Applying the graph's additive theorem, the formula (1) can be transformed as follows.

here,

And

Is the Hank function of the second kind (the Hankel function of second kind). When the integration is discretized by a rectangular integral, the following equation can be obtained.

In the equation (4),

It is. If there is wave height measurement data 121 at each of M observation points (R _n , θ _n ) (n = 1, 2,... M), the wave height at the origin is expressed as follows.

  When inverse Fourier transformation (the inverse Fourier transformation) is applied to both sides of the equation (5), the wave height in the time domain can be obtained by the following equation.

In the equation (6), ζ (R _m , θ _m , t) corresponds to the time transition of the wave height at the observation point (R _m , θ _m ), that is, the measurement data 121. [H _nm ] is an impulse response,

Is expressed as Since the final goal in the present embodiment is to predict individual waves, it is necessary to further modify equation (6). If prediction after t 'seconds is necessary, equation (6) is modified as follows.

  The prediction unit 113 applies the measurement data 121 at the observation points 1 to M to the equation (8), so that the individual wave height after t ′ seconds at (0, 0), that is, t ′ seconds at the target point. It is possible to predict the individual wave height later.

(5. Specific examples of individual waveforms of predicted target points)
FIG. 3 shows a case where 20 observation points are set on a semicircular circle with a radius of 1000 m from the target point (on the radius 100 m semicircular shape centered on the target point), 30 seconds later, that is, t in the above equation (8). It shows the individual wave height (prediction data) predicted as' = 30 s and the observed wave height (true data). At the observation start time, the measurement data 121 used for the prediction is not sufficient, so the prediction accuracy is not high, but the prediction accuracy increases with the passage of time.

  Note that the prediction accuracy depends on the number of observation points. In general, if there is measurement data 121 at five or more observation points, the wave height can be predicted at a practical level.

(6. Process flow)
Hereinafter, the processing flow of the information processing apparatus 100 will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing the flow of processing of the information processing apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment.

  Each processing step to be described later can be executed in any order or in parallel as long as there is no contradiction in processing contents, and other steps can be added between the processing steps. good. Further, a step described as a single step for convenience can be executed by being divided into a plurality of steps, and a step described as being divided into a plurality of steps for convenience can be executed as one step.

  The input unit 111 receives measurement data 121, which is a measurement value of the wave height at each time point, from the drone d equipped with a wave height measurement device, and stores the measurement data 121 in the DB 120 (S401). The prediction unit 113 reads the measurement data 121 related to the time transition of the wave height at each coordinate point (S403), and predicts the wave height at the target point using the measurement data 121 (S405). Since the specific example of the prediction method has been described above, the description thereof is omitted here.

  The output unit 115 outputs the wave height of the target point predicted by the prediction unit 113 (S407). In the output method, the wave height may be output as a display device or sound as a numerical value, or may be output as an expected wave height graph as shown in FIG. Alternatively, it may be possible to output a warning sound or various signals when a wave height of a predetermined threshold value or more is predicted.

(7. Specific example of hardware configuration)
Hereinafter, a specific example of the hardware configuration of the information processing apparatus 100 will be described with reference to FIG. As shown in FIG. 5, the information processing apparatus 100 includes a control unit 501, a communication interface (I / F) unit 505, a storage unit 507, a display unit 511, and an input unit 513, and each unit is a bus line. Connected via 515.

  The control unit 501 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit, not shown), a ROM (Read Only Memory, not shown), a RAM (Random Access Memory) 503, and the like. The control unit 501 is configured to execute the above-described information processing in addition to a general computer by executing a control program 509 stored in the storage unit 507. For example, the input unit 111, the prediction unit 113, and the output unit 115 described with reference to FIG. 2 can be realized as a control program 509 that is temporarily stored in the RAM 503 and operates on the CPU.

  The RAM 503 temporarily holds part or all of the measurement data 121 in addition to the code included in the control program 509. The RAM 503 is also used as a work area when the CPU executes various processes.

  The communication I / F unit 505 is a device for performing data communication with, for example, the drone d by radio. For example, the communication I / F unit 505 can sequentially receive the measurement data 121 measured by the drone d.

  The storage unit 507 is a nonvolatile storage medium such as an HDD (Hard Disk Drive) or a flash memory. The storage unit 507 stores an operating system (OS) and applications for realizing functions as a general computer, and various data such as measurement data 121. The storage unit 507 stores a control program 509. As described above, the input unit 111, the prediction unit 113, and the output unit 115 illustrated in FIG. 2 can be realized by the control program 509.

  The display unit 511 is a display device for presenting, for example, wave heights to the user. Specific examples of the display unit 511 include a liquid crystal display and an organic EL (Electro-Luminescence) display. The input unit 513 is a device for receiving an operation input. Specific examples of the input unit 513 include a keyboard, a mouse, and a touch panel.

  Note that the information processing apparatus 100 does not necessarily include the display unit 511 and the input unit 513. The display unit 511 and the input unit 513 may be connected to the information processing apparatus 100 from the outside via various interfaces such as a USB (Universal Serial Bus) and a display port. Moreover, you may provide audio | voice output parts, such as a speaker.

(8. Effects according to the present embodiment)
As described above, the information processing apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment predicts the individual wave height at the target point using data obtained by measuring the wave height around the target point. As a result, for example, it is possible to grasp the arrival of a high wave or the like before a certain time such as 30 seconds before the predicted arrival time. For example, when working on the sea, safety can be ensured by stopping the work on the sea for about 30 seconds to 1 minute before and after the high wave arrival prediction time. In addition, it is possible to take a technique such as stopping the work only for a short time period such as 30 seconds to 1 minute around the required time, so that the work efficiency can be improved.

(9. Appendix)
Note that the configurations of the above-described embodiments may be combined or some components may be replaced. The configuration of the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and various modifications may be made without departing from the scope of the present invention. In particular, the above formulas (1) to (4) are merely examples, and other formulas may be applied.

1: Observation system 100: Information processing device 111: Input unit 113: Prediction unit 115: Output unit 120: Database (DB)
121: Measurement data 501: Control unit 503: RAM
505: Communication interface (I / F) unit 507: Storage unit 509: Control program 511: Display unit 513: Input unit 515: Bus line

Claims (6)

Means for receiving time lapse input of wave height displacement at a plurality of observation points, measured by a plurality of observation devices arranged spatially distributed around the target point;
An information processing apparatus comprising: a predicting unit that predicts a wave height displacement at the target point using time lapse of the wave height displacement at the plurality of observation points. The predicting means predicts a wave height displacement at a predetermined time at the target point using time lapse of wave height displacements at the plurality of observation points, measured up to a predetermined time before the predetermined time,
The information processing apparatus according to claim 1. The plurality of observation devices are each implemented as a flying object, and observe a wave height displacement after the flying object has landed on the ocean.
The information processing apparatus according to claim 1 or 2. The prediction means predicts the wave height displacement at the target point by temporally integrating the product of the wave height displacement and the impulse response at the plurality of observation points.
The information processing apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 3. Receiving an input of time lapse of wave height displacement at a plurality of observation points measured by a plurality of observation devices arranged around the target point;
An information processing method in which an information processing apparatus performs a step of predicting a wave height displacement at the target point using time lapse of wave height displacement at the plurality of observation points. A process of receiving time lapse input of wave height displacement at a plurality of observation points measured by a plurality of observation devices arranged around the target point;
A program for causing an information processing device to execute processing for predicting a wave height displacement at the target point using time lapse of wave height displacement at the plurality of observation points.