JP2016220499A - Power demand estimation method, server device, and power demand estimation system - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a power demand estimation method, a server device, and a power demand estimation system that can improve the estimation accuracy of power demand.SOLUTION: A power demand estimation method executed by a server device 110 capable of communicating with a user's terminal device 140 includes: an acquisition step of acquiring information on the position of the terminal device 140 from the terminal device 140; identification step of identifying a position where the terminal device 140 can be situated at prescribed time on the basis of the information on the position acquired in the acquisition step; a determination step of determining whether or not the position of the terminal device 140 identified in the identification step accords with the position of a user facility of the user; and an estimation step of estimating the power demand of the user facility on the basis of a result determined in the determination step.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to a power demand estimation method, a server device, and a power demand estimation system.

  2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, there is known an apparatus that predicts a future energy consumption amount in advance and determines an energy consumption plan. For example, Patent Document 1 discloses an apparatus that creates an operation schedule according to an anticipated energy consumption based on an incentive given to power suppression and an energy usage fee.

JP 2014-96946 A

  However, a consumer who uses a device that consumes energy does not always consume energy according to the energy consumption plan. For this reason, for example, even during a demand response period in which an incentive provided by an electric power company or the like to receive power savings can be received, a consumer does not necessarily save power. In particular, consumers may not be able to respond to power savings for reasons such as being unable to operate equipment that consumes energy. However, if it is not clear whether or not such consumers can respond, energy consumption It was difficult to predict properly.

  The objective of this invention made | formed in view of this situation is providing the power demand estimation method, server apparatus, and power demand estimation system which can improve the estimation precision of a power demand.

In order to solve the above problem, a method for estimating power demand according to an embodiment of the present invention is as follows.
A power demand estimation method executed by a server device capable of communicating with a customer terminal device,
An acquisition step of acquiring information regarding the position of the terminal device from the terminal device;
Based on the position of the terminal device acquired in the acquisition step, a specifying step of specifying a position where the terminal device can exist at a predetermined time;
A determination step of determining whether or not the position of the terminal device specified in the specifying step and the position of the customer facility of the consumer match;
And an estimation step of estimating the power demand of the customer facility based on the result determined in the determination step.

  The specifying step may specify a position where the terminal device may exist at a predetermined time based on a moving speed or a moving history of the terminal device specified based on the position of the terminal device.

  In the specifying step, when the position of the terminal device acquired in the acquiring step and the position of the customer facility do not match, the terminal device refers to the moving speed or the moving history, and the terminal device You may specify the position that can exist.

  The specifying step is based on the moving speed or the moving history, and the terminal device is moving in the direction in which the customer facility is located, and can reach the customer facility by the predetermined time. If it is determined, the terminal device may be specified to be present at the customer facility at the predetermined time.

  The specifying step is based on the moving speed or the moving history, when the terminal device is not in the direction in which the customer facility is located, or in the direction in which the terminal device is located in the customer facility. However, when it is determined that the customer facility is not reachable by the predetermined time, it may be specified that the terminal device cannot exist at the position of the customer facility at the predetermined time.

  Based on the information about the past power consumption in the customer facility, the location of the terminal device identified in the identifying step is different from the case where the location of the terminal device matches the location of the customer facility. There may be further included a calculation step of individually calculating the predicted demand amount of power.

  The estimation step is based on the relationship between the position of the terminal device determined in the determination step and the position of the customer facility, and the expected demand amount of each of the consumers calculated in the calculation step. The power demand of the consumer facility may be estimated by calculating the total power demand by the consumer at the time.

  A determination step of determining whether or not to perform control related to power saving at the predetermined time based on the total power demand estimated in the estimation step may be further included.

  When it is determined in the determining step that the control related to the power saving is performed, the method may further include a transmitting step of transmitting the power saving request message to the terminal device.

  In the transmitting step, when there are a plurality of the terminal devices of the customer, the power saving request message is transmitted only to the terminal device determined that the position existing at the predetermined time coincides with the position of the customer facility. May be.

  As described above, the solving means of the present invention has been described as the power demand estimation method. However, the present invention can also be realized as a server device and a power demand estimation system substantially corresponding to these, and the scope of the present invention. It should be understood that these are also included.

For example, a server device according to an embodiment of the present invention is:
A communication unit that acquires information related to the position of the terminal device from the terminal device of the consumer;
Based on the information about the position acquired by the communication unit, the position where the terminal device can exist at a predetermined time is specified, the position of the specified terminal device, the position of the customer facility of the consumer, And a control unit that estimates the power demand of the customer facility based on the result of the determination.

In addition, the power demand estimation system according to an embodiment of the present invention,
A power demand estimation system including a server device capable of communicating with each other and one or more consumer terminal devices,
The terminal device is
In response to a request from the server device, obtaining information related to the location of the terminal device;
Transmitting information about the acquired position to the server device;
The server device is
Obtaining information on the position from the terminal device;
Identifying a position where the terminal apparatus can exist at a predetermined time based on the information about the position acquired from the terminal apparatus;
Determining whether the position of the identified terminal device matches the position of the customer facility of the consumer;
Estimating the power demand of the customer facility based on the determined result.

  ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, the power demand estimation method, server apparatus, and power demand estimation system which can improve the estimation precision of a power demand can be provided.

It is a functional block diagram which shows schematic structure of the electric power demand estimation system which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows an example of transition of the electric power consumption for every time zone of a student and a member of society. It is a figure which shows an example of the predicted demand amount computed by the control part of the application server apparatus of FIG. 6 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a processing procedure for determining whether or not a power saving request is necessary and transmitting a power saving request message, which is executed by the application server apparatus of FIG. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the determination process of the corresponding | compatible customer of a power saving request | requirement which the application server apparatus of FIG. 1 performs.

  Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram showing a schematic configuration of a power demand estimation system according to an embodiment of the present invention. The power demand estimation system 100 includes an application server device 110, a database server device 120, a DRAS (Demand Response Automation Server) 130, a plurality of terminal devices 140, and a power measurement device 150. The application server device 110 can communicate with the database server device 120, the DRAS 130, and the plurality of terminal devices 140 wirelessly or by wire.

  The application server device 110 determines whether to perform control related to power saving. The application server apparatus 110 determines whether or not to make a power saving request to a consumer, particularly as power saving control. If the application apparatus 110 determines to make a power saving request, the application apparatus 110 transmits a power saving request message (power saving request message) to the terminal apparatus 140. The application server device 110 includes a control unit 111, a communication unit 112, and a storage unit 113.

  The control unit 111 is a processor that controls and manages the entire application server device 110 including each functional block of the application server device 110. The control unit 111 includes a processor such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) that executes a program that defines a control procedure, and the program is stored in, for example, the storage unit 113 or an external storage medium.

  When the control unit 111 acquires a request (determination request) for starting a determination as to whether or not it is necessary to make a power saving request as control related to power saving from the DRAS 130, the control unit 111 makes a power saving request to the consumer. Judge whether or not. When the control unit 111 determines to make a power saving request, the control unit 111 transmits a power saving request message to the terminal device 140 via the communication unit 112. Details of the control performed by the control unit 111 will be described later.

  The communication unit 112 transmits and receives various types of information by communicating with the database server device 120, the DRAS 130, and the plurality of terminal devices 140, for example.

  The storage unit 113 includes a ROM (Read Only Memory) and a RAM (Random Access Memory), and stores various information such as a program executed by the control unit 111, for example.

  Moreover, the memory | storage part 113 memorize | stores the information regarding the position of the facility (customer facility) where each consumer consumes electric power. Information on the location of the customer facility is registered in advance by each customer, for example.

  The database server device 120 has various information (data) necessary when the application server device 110 determines whether or not to make a power saving request. The database server device 120 includes a control unit 121, a communication unit 122, and a storage unit 123.

  The control unit 121 is a processor that controls and manages the entire database server device 120 including each functional block of the database server device 120. The control unit 121 includes a processor such as a CPU that executes a program that defines a control procedure, and the program is stored in, for example, the storage unit 123 or an external storage medium.

  The communication unit 122 communicates with, for example, the application server device 110 and transmits various types of information stored in the storage unit 123 to the application server device 110.

  The storage unit 123 includes a ROM and a RAM and stores various types of information. In particular, the storage unit 123 stores various types of information (customer information) required when the application server device 110 determines whether or not to make a power saving request. As specific information, for example, the storage unit 123 includes demand history data 124, living environment data 125, attribute data 126, and family composition data 127 as illustrated in FIG. 1. The demand history data 124, the living environment data 125, the attribute data 126, and the family composition data 127 are stored in association with terminal IDs that uniquely identify each terminal device 140. That is, each of the demand history data 124, the living environment data 125, the attribute data 126, and the family composition data 127 indicates information related to a customer who uses the terminal device 140 indicated by the terminal ID. The terminal ID is expressed by a character string, for example.

  The demand history data 124 is information on past power consumption in each customer facility. The demand history data 124 indicates, for example, power consumption in a consumer facility for each consumer associated with time and weather information. The demand history data 124 is accumulated based on, for example, power consumption for each consumer measured by the power measurement device 150. The database server device 120 acquires information on the position of the customer who uses the terminal device 140 from the application server device 110, and information on the position of the customer and the power for each consumer measured by the power measuring device 150. The consumption amount may be associated and stored as demand history data 124. In the present embodiment, the database server device 120 stores information on whether or not the position of the customer coincides with the position of the customer facility and the power consumption in association with each other as the demand history data 124.

  The living environment data 125 is information indicating attributes of a building in which a customer lives, such as an apartment house such as a dormitory or a condominium, or a detached house.

  The attribute data 126 is information indicating individual consumer attributes such as sex, age, marital status and occupation.

  The family composition data 127 is information indicating the family composition of the customer, such as living alone, a nuclear family, and a family living together. The family composition data 127 may include a specific number of family members, for example.

  The living environment data 125, the attribute data 126, and the family composition data 127 are registered in advance by, for example, an electric power company or a customer.

  The DRAS 130 transmits a determination request to the application server apparatus 110. The determination request transmitted by the DRAS 130 includes, for example, information on the start time (target time) of the time to be determined whether or not it is necessary to make a power saving request. The DRAS 130 transmits a determination request at an arbitrary timing before the target time.

  The terminal device 140 is a portable electronic device used by each consumer. The terminal device 140 may be, for example, a mobile phone or a smartphone owned by a consumer, or may be a dedicated terminal device used for the power demand estimation system 100, for example. The terminal device 140 may be a so-called wearable terminal that can be worn and carried by a consumer.

  The terminal device 140 has a communication unit capable of communicating with the application server device 110 and transmits / receives various information to / from the application server device 110.

  The terminal device 140 includes a position specifying unit for specifying the position of the terminal device 140 as part of a control unit that controls the entire terminal device 140. In the present embodiment, the position specifying unit will be described below as specifying the position of the terminal device 140 by a GPS (Global Positioning System) 141 function. That is, the terminal device 140 can specify the position where the terminal device 140 exists by the function of the GPS 141. Note that the position specifying method by the position specifying unit is not limited to the one using the GPS 141 function. For example, the position specifying unit can specify the position by an arbitrary method such as specifying the position based on communication with the base station with which the terminal device 140 communicates.

  In addition, the terminal device 140 specifies the moving speed of the terminal device 140 over time based on the amount of displacement and the elapsed time of the position specified multiple times by specifying the position where the terminal device 140 exists multiple times. can do. The moving speed here includes the direction and speed of movement.

  In addition, the terminal device 140 identifies the position where the terminal device 140 exists a plurality of times, so that the terminal device with time elapses based on the position identified a plurality of times and the time when the terminal device 140 existed at each position. 140 movement histories can be identified. The movement history is a history relating to movement of a customer who uses the terminal device 140. For example, when the movement history of the past customer is stored in the storage unit 123 of the database server device 120, the movement history is compared with the past movement history and the specified movement history to determine the next demand. It can be used to predict home behavior.

  Note that the movement speed and movement history need not be specified by the terminal device 140. For example, the control unit 111 of the application server device 110 may specify the movement speed or the movement history based on the position information acquired from the terminal device 140. In this case, the terminal device 140 transmits the position of the terminal device 140 to the application server device 110 in response to a terminal information request from the application server device 110 described later.

  Further, the movement speed and the movement history are not necessarily specified. The movement speed and the movement history may not be specified by the power demand estimation method by the application server apparatus 110, and only one of them may be specified. In the present embodiment, the following description will be made assuming that only the moving speed is specified, but it will be understood that the moving history can also be used for power demand estimation by being specified in the same manner.

  The power measuring device 150 is a device that can measure information related to the power consumed by a consumer, such as a meter or an EMS (Energy Management System) device. The power measuring device 150 transmits information regarding the measured power consumption of the customer facility to the database server device 120.

  Next, details of control performed by the control unit 111 of the application server apparatus 110 in the power demand estimation system 100 will be described.

  When the application server apparatus 110 acquires a determination request from the DRAS 130, the control unit 111 requests a signal (terminal information) that requests information (terminal information) on the position and moving speed of the terminal apparatus 140 from the terminal apparatus 140 used by each consumer. Request).

  The terminal device 140 that has acquired the terminal information request specifies the terminal information of the terminal device 140 using the function of the GPS 141. Then, the terminal device 140 transmits the terminal ID associated with itself and the identified terminal information to the application server device 110. In the present embodiment, for the sake of explanation, a case where there are two terminal devices 140 will be described as an example. That is, in this embodiment, the terminal ID is specified to the application server device 110 from the first terminal device 140 used by the first consumer and the second terminal device 140 used by the second consumer. The following description will be made assuming that the terminal information is transmitted. However, it should be noted that in practice, the control unit 111 transmits a terminal information request to a predetermined population in order to make a power saving request determination.

  When the application server apparatus 110 acquires the terminal ID and the terminal information from the terminal apparatus 140, the control unit 111 sends a signal (information transmission request) for requesting transmission of various information associated with the acquired terminal ID to the database server. To device 120. When the database server device 120 acquires the information transmission request, the database server device 120 transmits the customer information stored as the demand history data 124, the living environment data 125, the attribute data 126, and the family composition data 127 in the storage unit 123 to the application server device 110. .

  Here, the information transmitted from the database server device 120 to the application server device 110 will be described with a specific example. For example, in the information associated with the terminal ID of the first terminal device 140, the living environment data 125 is “condominium”, the attribute data 126 is “student, single, male”, and the family composition data 127 is “ Suppose you live alone. The database server device 120 is associated with the terminal ID of the first terminal device 140, and the demand history data 124, together with the information “condominium”, “student, single, male” and “living alone”, The power consumption amount associated with the weather information is transmitted to the application server device 110.

  In addition, for example, the information associated with the terminal ID of the second terminal device 140 is that the living environment data 125 is “condominium”, the attribute data 126 is “working person, single, male”, and family composition data It is assumed that 127 is “living alone”. The database server device 120 is associated with the terminal ID of the second terminal device 140, the demand history data 124 together with the information “condominium”, “worker, single, male” and “living alone”. The power consumption associated with the weather information is transmitted to the application server device 110.

  When the application server apparatus 110 acquires consumer information from the database server apparatus 120, the control unit 111 is predicted at each target time based on information related to past power consumption in the consumer facility, which is included in the consumer information. The power consumption (expected demand) of the consumer is calculated. In particular, the control unit 111 is also referred to as a case where the customer is in the customer facility (hereinafter also referred to as “at home”) and a case where the customer is not present in the customer facility (hereinafter referred to as “when going out”). ) And the expected demand.

  Here, a specific example of calculation of the predicted demand amount performed by the control unit 111 will be described. In the present embodiment, the control unit 111 extracts an environment similar to the target time from the information of the demand history data 124 acquired by the application server device 110 from the database server device 120, and records the power consumption in the extracted environment. Based on the above, the expected demand at the target time is calculated. The environment similar to the target time is time and weather conditions similar to the target time. The time similar to the target time can be determined as an arbitrary time range based on the target time, such as a range of a predetermined time (for example, one hour) before and after the target time. The weather condition similar to the target time is, for example, a predetermined temperature range based on the temperature expected at the target time, and the weather predicted at the target time such as sunny, cloudy, or rainy. The weather condition at the target time is determined based on weather information such as information on the latest weather acquired from the outside via a network, for example.

  The control unit 111 further uses the information of the residential environment data 125, the attribute data 126, and the family composition data 127 for the expected demand calculated based on the past power consumption of the environment similar to the target time. The predicted demand may be adjusted by weighting the predicted demand. Weighting takes into account the effect of individual consumer factors on power consumption at the target time, and differentiates the difference for each time zone by analysis of variance.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of transition of power consumption for each time zone between a student and a member of society. For example, when comparing customer information between a first consumer and a second consumer, the first consumer is a “student”, while the second consumer is a “worker”. Referring to FIG. 2, the total amount of power consumed per day is higher for students than for members of society, but at 7:30 and 19:30, members of society have more power consumption than students. Become. When the target time is, for example, 19:30 when the power consumption of the working person increases, it is the working person who can greatly affect the total power demand at the target time. Therefore, the control unit 111 adjusts the predicted demand amount so that the second demander who is a member of society is higher than the other cases in the predicted demand amount when staying at home. Good.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of the predicted demand amount calculated by the control unit 111. In FIG. 3, an expected demand amount at a target time between a first consumer who uses the first terminal device 140 and a second consumer who uses the second terminal device 140 is shown. As shown in FIG. 3, the control unit 111 calculates an estimated demand amount for each case of two cases, that is, a case where the user is at home and a case where the user is out.

  Referring to FIG. 3, the predicted demand amount at the target time of the first consumer is predicted to be 5 kWh when staying at home and 3 kWh when going out. Further, the predicted demand amount at the target time of the second consumer is predicted to be 6 kWh when at home, and 2 kWh when going out.

  Next, based on the position and moving speed of the terminal device 140 acquired from the terminal device 140, the control unit 111 has a position where the terminal device 140 can exist at the target time (that is, there is a customer who uses the terminal device 140). The position of the terminal device 140 is specified, and it is determined whether or not the position of the specified terminal device 140 matches the position of the customer facility. Thus, the control unit 111 determines whether the consumer can respond to the power saving request at the target time. When the acquired position of the terminal device 140 matches the position of the customer facility, the control unit 111 determines that the consumer is at home when the terminal device 140 acquires its own position. When the position of the terminal device 140 does not match the position of the customer facility, it is determined that the customer is out when the terminal device 140 acquires its own position.

  And the control part 111 specifies that the position of the terminal device 140 may exist in the position of a consumer facility also in object time, when the position of the terminal device 140 and the position of a customer facility correspond. In addition, when the position of the terminal device 140 does not match the position of the customer facility, the control unit 111 refers to the moving speed of the terminal device 140 and identifies the position where the terminal device 140 can exist at the target time. . Furthermore, when the control unit 111 determines that the terminal device 140 is moving in the direction in which the customer facility is located and can reach the customer facility by the target time based on the moving speed of the terminal device 140. Further, it is specified that the terminal device 140 can exist at the position of the customer facility at the target time. On the other hand, the control unit 111 is based on the moving speed of the terminal device 140 when the terminal device 140 is not in the direction in which the customer facility is located, or the terminal device 140 is in the direction in which the customer facility is located. When it is determined that the customer facility is not reachable by the target time, the terminal device 140 specifies that the terminal device 140 cannot exist at the position of the customer facility at the target time. Such processing of the control unit 111 will be specifically described according to the present embodiment.

  First, based on the position of the terminal device 140 corresponding to the terminal ID acquired from the terminal device 140, the control unit 111 determines whether or not a customer who uses the terminal device 140 is at home. The control unit 111 determines whether or not the customer is at home by determining whether or not the position of the terminal device 140 indicated by the GPS function matches the position of the customer facility. Specifically, when the position of the terminal device 140 matches the position of the customer facility to some extent, the control unit 111 determines that the customer is at home, and the position of the terminal device 140 is that of the customer facility. If the location does not match, it is determined that the customer is out. The control unit 111 can respond to power saving at the target time (the position of the customer using the terminal device 140 matches the position of the customer facility at the target time) for the consumer determined to be at home. To be determined as a strong consumer (a corresponding consumer).

  For the consumer determined to have gone out, the control unit 111 is expected to be at home at the target time based on the moving speed of the terminal device 140 acquired from the terminal device 140 next. Determine whether or not. For example, when the consumer stays at a certain place and does not move, the control unit 111 determines that the consumer is not at home at the target time. Moreover, when the consumer is moving in a direction different from the direction in which the consumer facility is located, the control unit 111 determines that the consumer is not at home at the target time. The control unit 111 saves power at the target time for the consumer who is determined not to be at home at the target time (the position of the customer using the terminal device 140 does not match the position of the customer facility at the target time). It is determined as a consumer who cannot respond (non-compliant consumer).

  When the consumer is moving in the direction in which the consumer facility is located, the control unit 111 determines that the consumer is the target time based on the speed at which the consumer moves and the distance from the consumer position to the consumer facility. Judge whether to reach the customer facility by the time. When the control unit 111 determines that the customer reaches the customer facility by the target time, the control unit 111 determines the customer as a corresponding customer. On the other hand, when the control unit 111 determines that the consumer does not reach the customer facility by the target time, the control unit 111 determines the consumer as a non-compliant consumer.

  After determining the corresponding consumer and the non-compliant consumer, the control unit 111 determines the relationship between the position of the terminal device 140 and the location of the customer facility at the target time (that is, whether the consumer is a compliant consumer or non-compliant demand). The total power demand by the consumer at the target time is calculated based on whether the house is a house) and the predicted demand shown in FIG. Specifically, the control unit 111 selects the expected demand when the user is at home in the expected demand of FIG. 3 for the corresponding consumer, and the expected demand of FIG. 3 for the non-compliant consumer. , The expected demand when going out is selected. Then, the sum of the selected predicted demand is calculated, and the value of this sum is determined as the total power demand.

  For example, if the first consumer is a corresponding consumer and the second consumer is a non-compliant consumer, referring to FIG. 3, the expected demand of the first consumer is 5 kWh, The expected demand for consumers is 2 kWh. In this case, the total power demand is 7 kWh. Also, for example, when both the first consumer and the second consumer are corresponding consumers, the expected demand of the first consumer is 5 kWh, and the expected demand of the second consumer is 6 kWh. . In this case, the total power demand is 11 kWh.

  The application server apparatus 110 continuously transmits a terminal information request to the terminal apparatus 140, and acquires terminal information from the terminal apparatus 140 as a response. And the control part 111 is based on the terminal information which the application server apparatus 110 acquired from the terminal device 140 for every predetermined time interval (for example, every 5 minutes) until the predetermined time (for example, 5 minutes) before the target time. Thus, it is determined whether each consumer is a corresponding consumer or a non-compliant consumer, and the total power demand is calculated. In other words, every time the calculation of the total power demand is performed, the control unit 111 is whether each customer is at home or is going out, or if it is going out, is the head toward the customer facility? If the direction is toward the customer facility, it is determined whether or not the customer facility is reached by the target time. Based on the determination result, the control unit 111 determines whether each consumer is a corresponding consumer or a non-compliant consumer, and calculates the total power demand, thereby calculating the power demand of the customer facility. Is estimated.

  The control unit 111 determines whether or not a power saving request is necessary based on the total power demand calculated a predetermined time before the target time (5 minutes before in the above example). That is, the control unit 111 compares the total power demand calculated a predetermined time before the target time with the power that can be supplied at the target time, and the calculated total power demand is more than the power that can be supplied. If it is small, it is determined that a power saving request is not necessary. On the other hand, the control unit 111 determines that a power saving request is necessary when the calculated total power demand is larger than the power that can be supplied.

  When the control unit 111 determines that a power saving request is necessary, when the total power demand is calculated a predetermined time before the target time, the control unit 111 uses the terminal device 140 used by the consumer determined as the corresponding consumer. , Send a power saving request message. When a customer who has confirmed the power saving request message saves power in response to the power saving request, power corresponding to the power consumption can be supplied.

  Next, determination of whether or not a power saving request is required and transmission processing of a power saving request message by the application server apparatus 110 will be described with reference to FIG.

  First, the application server apparatus 110 acquires the determination request transmitted by the DRAS 130 (Step S101).

  When the application server device 110 acquires the determination request, the control unit 111 transmits a terminal information request to the terminal device 140 (S102). In response to the terminal information request, the terminal device 140 determines the position and moving speed (terminal information) of the terminal device 140, and transmits the terminal information together with the terminal ID to the application server device 110.

  The application server device 110 acquires the terminal ID and terminal information transmitted by the terminal device 140 (step S103).

  Next, in the application server device 110, the control unit 111 determines whether or not the predicted demand has already been calculated (step S104).

  When the control unit 111 determines that the predicted demand has not yet been calculated (No in step S104), the control unit 111 transmits an information transmission request for information associated with the terminal ID acquired in step S103 to the database server device 120. (Step S105). In response to the information transmission request, the database server device 120 transmits the customer information of the customer associated with the terminal ID to the application server device 110.

  The application server device 110 acquires customer information transmitted by the database server device 120 (step S106).

  And in the application server apparatus 110, the control part 111 estimates the electric power demand in object time based on customer information (step S107).

  If the control unit 111 determines in step S104 that the predicted demand has already been calculated in steps S105 to S107 (Yes in step S104), the process proceeds to step S108 without performing steps S107 to S107. To do.

  The control unit 111 determines a corresponding consumer and a non-compliant consumer based on the terminal information acquired by the application server apparatus 110 in Step S103 (Step S108). The determination method of the corresponding customer and the non-compliant customer performed by the control unit 111 will be described in detail in the description of FIG.

  The control unit 111 calculates the total power demand at the target time with reference to the predicted demand calculated in step S107 based on the corresponding and non-compliant consumers determined in step S108 (step S109). .

  Then, the control unit 111 determines whether or not the current time is a predetermined time before the target time (step S110).

  When the control unit 111 determines that the current time is not a predetermined time before the target time, that is, when the current time is determined to be a time before the predetermined time before the target time (No in step S110). In this flow, the process proceeds to step S102.

  On the other hand, when the control unit 111 determines that the current time is a predetermined time before the target time (Yes in step S110), a power saving request is required based on the total power demand calculated in step S109. Whether or not (step S111).

  When the control unit 111 determines that a power saving request is not necessary (No in step S111), the control unit 111 ends this flow.

  On the other hand, when the control unit 111 determines that a power saving request is necessary (Yes in step S111), the control unit 111 finally sends a power saving request message to the terminal device 140 used by the customer determined to be a corresponding customer in step S108. Is transmitted (step S112).

  Next, the details of the process of determining the corresponding and non-compliant consumers by the control unit 111 of the application server apparatus 110, that is, the process of step 108 in FIG. 4 will be described with reference to FIG. Based on the terminal information (that is, the position and movement speed of the terminal device 140) acquired by the application server device 110 from the terminal device 140 in step S103 of FIG. Execute the process.

  Based on the position of the terminal device 140, the control unit 111 determines whether a consumer who uses the terminal device 140 is at home (step S201).

  When the control unit 111 determines that the consumer is at home (Yes in step S201), the control unit 111 determines the consumer as a corresponding consumer (step S202).

  On the other hand, when the control unit 111 determines that the customer is out (No in step S201), based on the speed information of the terminal device 140, whether or not the customer is moving toward the customer facility. Is determined (step S203).

  When it is determined that the consumer is moving in a direction different from the direction of the customer facility (No in step S203), the control unit 111 determines the consumer as a non-compliant consumer (step S205).

  On the other hand, when the control unit 111 determines that the customer is moving in the direction of the customer facility (Yes in step S203), the control unit 111 determines whether the customer can reach the customer facility by the target time. (Step S204).

  When it is determined that the customer can reach the customer facility by the target time (Yes in Step S204), the control unit 111 determines the customer as a corresponding consumer (Step S202).

  On the other hand, when the control unit 111 determines that the customer cannot reach the customer facility by the target time (No in Step S204), the control unit 111 determines the consumer as a non-compliant consumer (Step S205).

  After determining the corresponding consumer and the non-compliant consumer in this way, the control unit 111 calculates the total power demand at the target time in step S109 of FIG.

  As described above, according to the power demand estimation system 100 according to the present embodiment, in addition to the actual power consumption of each consumer, it is determined whether each consumer is at home or going out at the target time. Determine whether the request is necessary. Therefore, even if an irregular situation occurs and the power demand at the target time deviates from the past statistical information, it is easy to judge the necessity of power saving request with higher accuracy depending on the situation. Become.

  Further, according to the power demand estimation system 100, information indicating whether or not the position of the customer matches the position of the customer facility and the power consumption are associated with each other and stored as the demand history data 124. In other words, in the power demand estimation system 100, the power consumption is stored in the database server device 120 in association with information indicating whether each consumer is at home or going out. Therefore, according to the power demand estimation system 100, it is possible to grasp the power usage tendency of each consumer. Conventionally, in order to record the power usage of each consumer in this way, it has been necessary to use dedicated equipment, but the power demand estimation system 100 uses such dedicated equipment. It is possible to grasp the tendency of each customer's power use without having to do so.

  In addition, the power demand estimation system 100 determines whether the customer facility can be reached by the target time, not only for consumers who are at home, but also for customers who are going out. Deciding on a house. That is, in the power demand estimation system 100, it is determined whether or not it is possible to cope with power saving at the target time by taking the moving speed into consideration, instead of the out-going consumers being uniformly non-compliant consumers. To be judged. Therefore, according to the power demand estimation system 100, it can be determined more accurately whether or not power saving can be handled at the target time.

  Further, in the power demand estimation system 100, a customer who is at home at a target time and a customer who is expected to reach a customer facility by the target time are determined as a corresponding customer and used by the corresponding customer A power saving request message is transmitted to the device 140. On the other hand, in the power demand estimation system 100, the terminal device 140 used by a non-compliant consumer such as a consumer who has gone out at the target time and a consumer who is predicted to be unable to reach the customer facility by the target time. The power saving request message is not sent. For this reason, a power saving request message can be notified to a consumer who is considered capable of saving power, while a power saving request message is not transmitted to a consumer who is considered unable to cope with power saving. As a result, according to the power demand estimation system 100, it is possible to eliminate the annoyance of a non-compliant consumer acquiring a power saving request message and browsing the power saving request message even though power saving cannot be handled. .

  Further, according to the power demand estimation system 100, it is possible to determine whether or not a power saving request is required at the target time before the target time, and by repeatedly determining whether or not a power saving request is required, the position of the consumer that changes with time Accordingly, it is possible to improve the accuracy of determining whether or not a power saving request is required at the target time.

  In addition, this invention is not limited only to the said embodiment, Many deformation | transformation or a change is possible. For example, the functions and the like included in each component can be rearranged so as not to be logically contradictory, and a plurality of components or the like can be combined into one or divided.

  For example, in the above embodiment, the application server device 110 and the database server device 120 have been described as different server devices, but the present invention is not limited to this embodiment. For example, the power demand estimation system 100 may include a server device having functions of both the application server device 110 and the database server device 120 instead of the application server device 110 and the database server device 120. In addition, the application server device 110 and the database server device 120 may be configured as three or more server devices each further dividing a function.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 100 Electric power demand estimation system 110 Application server apparatus 111, 121 Control part 112, 122 Communication part 113, 123 Storage part 120 Database server apparatus 124 Demand history data 125 Residential environment data 126 Attribute data 127 Family structure data 130 DRAS
140 Terminal device 141 GPS
150 Power measuring device

Claims (12)

A power demand estimation method executed by a server device capable of communicating with a customer terminal device,
An acquisition step of acquiring information regarding the position of the terminal device from the terminal device;
Based on the position of the terminal device acquired in the acquisition step, a specifying step of specifying a position where the terminal device can exist at a predetermined time;
A determination step of determining whether or not the position of the terminal device specified in the specifying step and the position of the customer facility of the consumer match;
An estimation step of estimating a power demand of the customer facility based on a result determined in the determination step.   The said specific step specifies the position where the said terminal device can exist in predetermined time based on the moving speed or movement history of the said terminal device specified based on the position of the said terminal device. Power demand estimation method.   In the specifying step, when the position of the terminal device acquired in the acquiring step and the position of the customer facility do not match, the terminal device refers to the moving speed or the moving history, and the terminal device The electric power demand estimation method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein a position that can exist in the power source is specified.   The specifying step is based on the moving speed or the moving history, and the terminal device is moving in the direction in which the customer facility is located, and can reach the customer facility by the predetermined time. The power demand estimation method according to claim 3, wherein when it is determined, the terminal device is specified to be present at the position of the customer facility at the predetermined time.   The specifying step is based on the moving speed or the moving history, when the terminal device is not in the direction in which the customer facility is located, or in the direction in which the terminal device is located in the customer facility. However, when it is determined that the customer facility is not reachable by the predetermined time, the terminal device specifies that the terminal device cannot exist at the position of the customer facility at the predetermined time. The power demand estimation method according to claim 4. Based on the information about the past power consumption in the customer facility, the location of the terminal device identified in the identifying step is different from the case where the location of the terminal device matches the location of the customer facility. The power demand estimation method according to any one of claims 1 to 5, further comprising a calculation step of individually calculating an expected power demand.   The estimation step is based on the relationship between the position of the terminal device determined in the determination step and the position of the customer facility, and the expected demand amount of each of the consumers calculated in the calculation step. The power demand estimation method according to claim 6, wherein the power demand of the consumer facility is estimated by calculating a total power demand amount by the consumer at a time. The power demand estimation method according to claim 7, further comprising a determination step of determining whether or not to perform power saving control at the predetermined time based on the total power demand estimated in the estimation step. The power demand estimation method according to claim 8, further comprising a transmission step of transmitting the power saving request message to the terminal device when it is determined that the power saving control is performed in the determining step.   In the transmitting step, when there are a plurality of the terminal devices of the customer, the power saving request message is transmitted only to the terminal device determined that the position existing at the predetermined time coincides with the position of the customer facility. The power demand estimation method according to claim 9. A communication unit that acquires information related to the position of the terminal device from the terminal device of the consumer;
Based on the information about the position acquired by the communication unit, the position where the terminal device can exist at a predetermined time is specified, the position of the specified terminal device, the position of the customer facility of the consumer, And a control unit that estimates power demand of the customer facility based on the determined result. A power demand estimation system including a server device capable of communicating with each other and one or more consumer terminal devices,
The terminal device is
In response to a request from the server device, obtaining information related to the location of the terminal device;
Transmitting information about the acquired position to the server device;
The server device is
Obtaining information on the position from the terminal device;
Identifying a position where the terminal apparatus can exist at a predetermined time based on the information about the position acquired from the terminal apparatus;
Determining whether the position of the identified terminal device matches the position of the customer facility of the consumer;
Estimating the power demand of the customer facility based on the determined result.

Images