JP2016208771A - Operation simulation device, operation simulation system, simulation method for storage battery facility for power generator and program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To calculate costs with high accuracy in simulation of a storage battery facility for a power generator.SOLUTION: The operation simulation device that simulates operation of a storage battery to be connected to a power generation facility which generates power by renewable energy: inputs power data indicating generated power that the power generation facility generates; sets cost conditions indicating costs relating to change of the storage battery, and temperature conditions and constraint conditions for operating the storage battery; calculates deterioration rates of the storage battery on the basis of the temperature conditions, charging rates showing ratios of charge amounts of power to be charged into the storage battery relative to capacities at which the storage battery can be charged as well as cycle numbers based on the charge amounts and discharge amounts of power to be discharged from the storage battery; and calculates costs relating to operation satisfying the constraint conditions, on the basis of thermal management costs relating to a thermal management satisfying the temperature conditions and facility costs to be calculated based on the cost conditions.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to an operation simulation apparatus, an operation simulation system, a simulation method for a storage battery facility for a generator, and a program.

  A wind power generator that generates power using wind power is known.

  In addition, there is a method for calculating the capacity of the storage battery so that the facility cost is minimized in the storage battery equipment that is provided to the wind power generator and equalizes the generated power. In this method, for example, in Patent Document 1, the controller parameter is changed within a set range with the restriction of leveling fluctuations in the power generated by the wind power generator, and the equipment cost is minimized. A method for determining the capacity of the storage battery, the inverter capacity, and the controller parameters is disclosed.

JP 2009-65787 A

  However, as the storage battery repeatedly charges and discharges and the time elapses, the storage battery deteriorates, and the capacity of the storage battery that can be used decreases due to the deterioration of the storage battery. Therefore, in the method of Patent Document 1, for example, when the storage battery deteriorates after the storage battery facility is operated, there may be a case where the constraint condition for leveling fluctuations in power cannot be satisfied. Therefore, since the change of the storage battery for satisfying the constraint condition is not considered, the cost due to the change is not often calculated. Therefore, in the simulation of the storage battery equipment for the generator, there is a possibility that a problem that the cost cannot be calculated accurately occurs.

  One aspect of the present invention has been made in view of such a problem, and an object thereof is to accurately calculate costs in a simulation of a storage battery facility for a generator.

  In order to solve the above-described problems and achieve the object, an operation simulation apparatus for simulating the operation of a storage battery connected to a power generation facility that generates electric power using renewable energy in one embodiment of the present invention includes: An input unit for inputting power data indicating generated power to be generated; a cost condition indicating a cost for changing the storage battery; a temperature condition for operating the storage battery; a setting unit for setting a constraint condition; the temperature condition; Deterioration of the storage battery based on a charge rate indicating a ratio of a charge amount of power charged in the storage battery to a capacity that can be charged by the storage battery, and a cycle number based on the charge amount and a discharge amount of power discharged from the storage battery. Degradation rate calculation unit for calculating the rate, temperature management cost for temperature management satisfying the temperature condition and the cost condition Based on the equipment cost that is calculated Zui, and a cost calculation unit that calculates the cost of the constraint condition is satisfied operation.

  ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, in simulation of the storage battery installation for generators, cost can be calculated accurately.

The block diagram which shows an example of the hardware constitutions of the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The functional block diagram which shows an example of a function structure of the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The block diagram which shows an example of the operation simulation model in one Embodiment of this invention. The flowchart which shows an example of the whole process by the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows an example of the input data which inputs the storage battery conditions in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows an example of the input data which inputs the cost concerning management of the temperature in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows an example of the input data which inputs the price of the storage battery in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows an example of the input data which inputs the generated electric power in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows an example of the input data which inputs a constraint condition into the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows an example of the input data which inputs temperature conditions into the operation | movement simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows an example of the input data which inputs the cost conditions concerning the change of a storage battery into the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows an example of the electric power data input into the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows an example of the parameter set to the operation | use simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows an example of the parameter which concerns on the capacity | capacitance of the storage battery set to the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows an example of the installation cost calculated by the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows the example of a setting of the parameter set to the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows the example of a parameter setting concerning the capacity | capacitance of the storage battery set to the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows the example of a calculation result of the installation cost calculated by the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The flowchart which shows the execution example of the simulation based on the simulation model by the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows an example of the simulation result by the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows an example of the calculation result which concerns on the storage battery by the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows an example of the calculation result which concerns on the temperature management expense by the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows the example of a calculation result of the simulation result by the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows the example of calculation of the calculation result which concerns on the storage battery by the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows the example of calculation of the calculation result which concerns on the temperature management cost by the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows an example of the evaluation value by the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The figure which shows an example of the operation pattern of the simulation by the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The table | surface which shows the example of calculation of the evaluation value by the operation simulation apparatus in one Embodiment of this invention. The figure which shows an example of the change of the deterioration rate with time passage in one Embodiment of this invention.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

1. 1. Hardware configuration example of operation simulation device 2. Functional configuration example of operation simulation device Operation simulation model example 4. Example of overall processing

≪ １． Hardware configuration example of operation simulation equipment ≫
FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of an operation simulation apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention. Specifically, the operation simulation apparatus 10 is an information processing apparatus such as a PC (Personal Computer), a workstation, a tablet, a mobile PC, or a server, that is, a computer. The operation simulation apparatus 10 is a CPU (Central And a storage device 102, a network I / F (interface) 103, an input I / F 104, and an output I / F 105.

  The CPU 101 is an arithmetic device that performs calculations for realizing various processes and various controls performed by the operation simulation apparatus 10 and processes various data. Further, the CPU 101 is a control device that controls hardware included in the operation simulation apparatus 10.

  The storage device 102 stores data, programs, setting values, and the like used by the operation simulation device 10. The storage device 102 is a so-called memory or the like. Note that the storage device 102 may further include an auxiliary storage device including a hard disk or the like.

  The network I / F 103 transmits and receives various data and the like to and from devices connected via a network such as a LAN (Local Area Network). For example, the network I / F 103 is a connector or the like for connecting a NIC (Network Interface Controller) and a LAN cable.

  The input I / F 104 is an interface with a user who uses the operation simulation apparatus 10. Specifically, the input I / F 104 inputs various operations performed by a user or the like. For example, the input I / F 104 includes an input device such as a keyboard and a connector that connects the input device to the operation simulation device 10. The input I / F 104 may connect various recording media to the operation simulation apparatus 10 and input various data from the recording medium.

  The output I / F 105 is an interface with a user who uses the operation simulation apparatus 10. Specifically, the output I / F 105 outputs processing results and the like of various processes performed by the operation simulation apparatus 10 to a user or the like. For example, the output I / F 105 is an output device such as a display and a connector that connects the output device to the operation simulation device 10.

  The operation simulation apparatus 10 may further include an auxiliary device that assists each hardware resource. Further, the operation simulation apparatus 10 may have an apparatus for processing various processes in parallel, redundantly, or distributedly inside or outside. Furthermore, the operation simulation apparatus 10 may be configured by a plurality of information processing apparatuses.

≪ 2. Functional configuration example of operation simulation equipment ≫
FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram illustrating an example of a functional configuration of the operation simulation apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention. As illustrated, the operation simulation apparatus 10 includes an input unit 110, a storage unit 111, a simulation unit 112, a storage battery setting unit 113, a deterioration rate calculation unit 114, a cost calculation unit 115, and a capacity calculation unit 116. including.

  The input unit 110 inputs various data such as input data based on user operations and the like. The input unit 110 is realized by, for example, the input I / F 104 (see FIG. 1).

  The storage unit 111 stores data input to the operation simulation apparatus 10 and calculation results calculated by the operation simulation apparatus 10. The storage unit 111 is realized by the storage device 102 (see FIG. 1), for example.

  The simulation unit 112 performs a simulation based on a simulation model including a power generation facility that generates power using renewable energy and a storage battery that charges and discharges power generated by the power generation facility. Note that the simulation unit 112 is realized by the CPU 101 (see FIG. 1), for example.

  The storage battery setting unit 113 sets various conditions, parameters, and the like. Note that the storage battery setting unit 113 is realized by the CPU 101 or the like, for example.

  The deterioration rate calculation unit 114 is a temperature condition that is set, a charge rate that indicates a ratio of a charge amount of power charged in the storage battery to a capacity that can be charged by the storage battery, and a discharge of power discharged by the charge amount and discharge from the storage battery. The deterioration rate of the storage battery is calculated based on the number of cycles calculated based on the amount. The deterioration rate calculation unit 114 is realized by the CPU 101 or the like, for example.

  The cost calculation unit 115 calculates the cost for operation satisfying the set constraint condition based on the temperature management cost for temperature management satisfying the set temperature condition and the facility cost calculated based on the cost condition. The cost calculation unit 115 is realized by the CPU 101, for example.

  In each operation, the capacity calculation unit 116 calculates the capacity of the storage battery that satisfies each operation pattern. The capacity calculation unit 116 is realized by the CPU 101, for example.

≪ 3. Operation simulation model example ≫
FIG. 3 is a block diagram illustrating an example of an operation simulation model according to an embodiment of the present invention. That is, the operation simulation model shown in the figure is an example of a simulation model used for simulation by the simulation unit 112 (see FIG. 2). Hereinafter, the simulation model Sim1 shown in FIG. 3 will be described as an example.

  In the simulation model Sim1, the power generation facility Sim2 is a simulation model of a wind power generation facility that generates power from wind power. The power generation facility Sim2 generates generated power Pg corresponding to the wind speed. That is, the generated power Pg is the power generated by the power generation facility Sim2, and the generated power Pg varies depending on the wind speed. Therefore, as illustrated, the power often varies finely with respect to time. In the simulation model Sim1, the storage battery system Sim10 is connected to the power generation facility Sim2.

  The power generation facility Sim2 may include a synchronous generator, a power converter, a transformer, a circuit breaker, a switch, and the like. Furthermore, the power generation facility Sim2 may be a power generation facility that performs tidal power generation or wave power generation, for example. Preferably, the power generation facility Sim2 is preferably a power generation facility in which the power related to the alternating current to be generated varies depending on weather conditions and the like. That is, the power generation facility Sim2 is preferably a power generation facility related to renewable energy.

  Storage battery system Sim10 includes a control device Sim11, an inverter Sim12, and a storage battery Sim13. In the following description, the storage battery Sim13 is described as an example of a lithium (Li) ion battery, but the types of storage battery are, for example, lead storage battery, NAS (registered trademark) (sodium / sulfur) battery, nickel (Ni). ) A cadmium (Cd) storage battery, a nickel metal hydride storage battery, or a combination thereof may be used.

  The control device Sim11 measures the generated power Pg. Next, the control device Sim11 causes the inverter Sim12 to discharge the discharge power Pbat. As shown in the figure, when the discharge power Pbat discharged by the inverter Sim12 and the generated power Pg are combined, the output power Psum is obtained. The control device Sim11 controls the discharge power Pbat by giving a command to the inverter Sim12 so that the fluctuation of the output power Psum falls within a predetermined range.

  Further, the control device Sim11 measures a direct current Ibat and a direct current voltage Ebat that flow between the inverter Sim12 and the storage battery Sim13. In the simulation model Sim1, the power charged in the storage battery Sim13 is calculated by calculating the product of the DC current Ibat and the DC voltage Ebat, and when the power is further integrated over time, the charge amount is calculated. Note that the unit of power is, for example, kW (kilowatt), and the unit of charge is kWh (kilowatt hour) or the like. In the simulation model Sim1, the charging rate per unit (unit) is the installed capacity of the storage battery Sim13 per unit (hereinafter referred to as “installed capacity”), and the charge amount per unit is divided. Can be calculated. In the following description, the charging rate is expressed as a percentage.

  Further, in the simulation model Sim1, the deterioration rate can be calculated for each storage battery Sim13 based on the respective charging rates and the respective number of cycles calculated based on the charging and discharging by the storage battery Sim13. Next, based on the calculated deterioration rate, among the installed capacities of the storage battery Sim13, a substantial capacity (hereinafter referred to as “substantial capacity”) that the storage battery Sim13 can actually charge is calculated. That is, in many cases, the storage battery cannot be used for charging a part of the installed capacity due to deterioration or the like. The deterioration rate is a value indicating the ratio of the capacity that cannot be used for charging with respect to the installed capacity. That is, by multiplying the real capacity by the deterioration rate, the capacity that cannot be used for charging can be calculated. In the simulation model Sim1, the calculated real capacity is fed back, and the charging rate and the like can be calculated based on the real capacity.

  In the simulation model Sim1, the power discharged from the storage battery Sim13 is calculated by calculating the product of the DC current Ibat and the DC voltage Ebat, and further, the discharge amount is calculated when the power is integrated over time. As in the case of charging, the unit of power to be discharged is kW or the like, and the unit of discharge amount is kWh or the like.

  The simulation model Sim1 may include a transformer, a circuit breaker such as a breaker, and a switch. Further, the simulation model Sim1 may have a plurality of power generation facilities.

<< 4. Example of overall processing ≫
FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing an example of the entire process performed by the operation simulation apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention.

≪ Examples of various data input (step S10) ≫
In step S10, the operation simulation apparatus inputs various data such as input data.

  FIG. 5 is a table showing an example of input data for inputting storage battery conditions according to an embodiment of the present invention. In the condition input table Table 1 shown in FIG. 5, various conditions relating to the storage battery such as constraint conditions are inputted as character strings as “input items”, and “values” corresponding to the inputted “input items” are inputted numerically. .

  FIG. 6 is a table showing an example of input data for inputting a cost related to temperature management in an embodiment of the present invention. In the operation cost table Table2 shown in FIG. 6, a temperature management cost necessary for managing the temperature of the storage battery is input. For example, in the “storage battery temperature setting”, the temperature of the storage battery and the surroundings of the storage battery are managed. A number indicating a temperature pattern is input. In “temperature”, a temperature condition corresponding to “storage battery temperature setting” is input as a character string. Furthermore, the “temperature management cost” indicates, for each predetermined period, the cost for management of cooling or heating the storage battery and the temperature around the storage battery so as to satisfy the temperature condition indicated by “temperature”. For example, when the cost is calculated on a yearly basis, the “temperature management cost” indicates the utility cost for one year. Therefore, the “temperature management cost” may vary depending on the temperature condition determined by the “storage battery temperature setting”. Note that the temperature management cost input to the operation cost table Table2 is not limited to the one-year utility cost, and may include other expenses such as an electricity cost and a maintenance cost for operating the facility.

  FIG. 7 is a table showing an example of input data for inputting the price of the storage battery in one embodiment of the present invention. In the unit price table Table3 shown in FIG. 7, the price of the storage battery is input, and for example, the price is input for each year. Specifically, “year” indicates the number of years that have passed since the operation was started by the simulation model Sim1 shown in FIG. The “unit price” indicates the price in the corresponding “year”, and in the change to add the storage battery, it indicates the equipment cost for adding the storage battery. For example, as shown in the figure, the “unit price” indicates the equipment cost necessary for purchasing a storage battery per kW unit. Since storage batteries often get cheaper as years pass, the unit price table Table 3 shows the cost conditions used to calculate the equipment costs for adding storage batteries that vary with each "year". . The “unit price” is not limited to the facility cost for purchasing the storage battery, but may include other costs such as construction cost, transportation cost, and work cost for installing the storage battery.

  FIG. 8 is a table showing an example of input data for inputting generated power in an embodiment of the present invention. The power table Table4 shown in FIG. 8 is an example of power data. In the power table Table4, the generated power Pg (see FIG. 3) generated per predetermined time by the simulation model Sim1 (see FIG. 3) is stored. Data for simulation is input. Specifically, in “date and time”, a date and time specifying the date and time are numerically input. For example, a date and time of 10 seconds or 1 second is input to “date and time”. Further, as the “wind speed”, a numerical value is input as the speed of the wind blown to the power generation facility Sim2 (see FIG. 3) at the corresponding “date and time”. That is, the power generation facility Sim2 generates the generated power Pg using the wind indicated by “wind speed”. As for “generated power”, the generated power Pg generated by the power generation facility Sim2 is input as a numerical value at the corresponding “date and time”. The power data is not limited to be input in the format shown in the power table Table4. For example, when the generated power Pg generated by the power generation facility Sim2 is proportional to the wind speed, data indicating “wind speed” is input. The generated power Pg generated per predetermined time may be calculated from the wind speed. Further, the power table Table4 may be generated based on actual measurement values. In other words, directly measured generated power may be input to the power table Table4.

  FIG. 9 is a table showing an example of input data for inputting constraint conditions to the operation simulation apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention. For example, the constraint condition is input to the operation simulation apparatus by a condition input table Table1 (see FIG. 5). Hereinafter, an example will be described in which simulation is performed when the constraint condition input in the condition input table Table1 illustrated in FIG. 9 is input in step S10 (see FIG. 4). Specifically, as illustrated in FIG. 9, “250 capacity” is input as the “capacity of storage battery per unit” as a constraint condition according to the condition input table Table1, and the “quantity that can install storage batteries” is In this example, “4” is input. That is, in the constraint condition by the condition input table Table1, each storage battery has an installation capacity of “250 kWh”, and the storage battery is an example in which a maximum of “4” can be installed due to restrictions such as the area where the storage battery is installed. It is.

  Further, in the condition input table Table1, as shown in FIG. 9, “variation width of output power” is input as a percentage as a constraint condition related to the fluctuation width of the output power Psum (see FIG. 3). Note that the constraint condition related to the fluctuation range of the output power Psum is determined by, for example, a standard defined by an electric power company or the like. When a constraint condition related to the fluctuation range of the output power Psum is input, the storage battery is controlled so that the output power Psum falls within a range determined by the constraint condition. Specifically, when the generated power Pg that is equal to or lower than the lower limit determined by “the fluctuation range of the output power” is generated, the storage battery is controlled to discharge. On the other hand, when the generated power Pg that is equal to or higher than the upper limit determined by the “variation width of output power” is generated, the storage battery is controlled to be charged.

  FIG. 10 is a table showing an example of input data for inputting a temperature condition to the operation simulation apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention. Hereinafter, an example will be described in which a simulation is performed when the temperature condition input in the operation cost table Table2 illustrated in FIG. 10 is input in step S10. Specifically, as illustrated in FIG. 10, three patterns “1” to “3” are input to the “storage battery temperature setting” as the temperature condition by the operation cost table Table2.

  In the operation cost table Table 2 shown in FIG. 10, the “storage battery temperature setting” pattern “1” is an example in which the temperature condition for operating the storage battery at “10 ° C. or less” is input by “temperature”. . That is, when the “storage battery temperature setting” is operated in a pattern of “1”, the storage battery is cooled by cooling or the like so that the temperature of the storage battery becomes “10 ° C. or less”. Therefore, in the pattern in which “storage battery temperature setting” is “1”, since cooling is managed in operation, the temperature management cost of “800 thousand yen / year” shown in “temperature management cost” is required for the management. .

  Further, in the operation cost table Table2 shown in FIG. 10, the temperature condition for operation with the storage battery temperature set to “20 ° C. or lower” is input to the pattern in which “storage battery temperature setting” is “2”. In the operation cost table Table 2 shown, the temperature condition for operation with the storage battery temperature set to “30 ° C. or lower” is input to the pattern where “storage battery temperature setting” is “3”. This is an example in which “temperature management costs” corresponding to each pattern are input in the same manner as the pattern where “storage battery temperature setting” is “1”.

  FIG. 11 is a table showing an example of input data for inputting cost conditions for changing the storage battery to the operation simulation apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention. Hereinafter, an example will be described in which a simulation is performed when the cost condition related to the change of the storage battery input to the unit price table Table3 illustrated in FIG. 11 is input in step S10. Specifically, as illustrated in FIG. 11, the “unit price” is input as the cost condition for each “year” for 10 years by the unit price table Table 3. As shown in FIG. 11, in the unit price table Table3, the cost of “200.0 thousand yen / kWh” (corresponding to the first year in FIG. 11) at the start of operation is 10 years later. In this example, the price drops to “107.5 thousand yen / kWh” (corresponding to the 10th year in FIG. 11).

  FIG. 12 is a table showing an example of power data input to the operation simulation apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention. Hereinafter, an example in which simulation is performed when the power data input to the power table Table4 illustrated in FIG. 12 is input in step S10 will be described. Specifically, in FIG. 12, there is a wind indicated by “wind speed” corresponding to “date and time” every 10 seconds by the power table Table 4, and “wind power” is generated using the wind indicated by “wind speed”. The generated power Pg (see FIG. 3) shown in FIG. 3 is generated by the power generation facility Sim2 (see FIG. 3). As shown in FIG. 12, in the power table Table4, one year of power data is input at intervals of 10 seconds.

≪ Parameter setting example (step S20) ≫
Returning to FIG. 4, in step S20, the operation simulation apparatus sets parameters.

  FIG. 13 is a table showing an example of parameters set in the operation simulation apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention. The parameter table Table5 shown in FIG. 13 shows an example of parameters used for the operation simulation. Specifically, as illustrated in FIG. 13, in the parameter table Table 5, “year” indicates the time elapsed in the simulation in units of years. In other words, in this case, parameters such as temperature conditions and storage battery change related to the simulation are input in units of years. Hereinafter, a case where the operation simulation apparatus sets various parameters in units of years will be described as an example.

  As illustrated in FIG. 13, in the parameter table Table 5, “number of additional units” indicates the number of storage batteries newly added to the corresponding “year”. The “number of removed units” indicates the number of storage batteries to be removed in the corresponding “year” among the installed storage batteries. Furthermore, the “number of installed units” indicates the number of storage batteries that can be used in the corresponding “year”. That is, when the addition is performed, the number of storage batteries increases, while when the removal is performed, the number of storage batteries decreases. Moreover, the result of the change by addition and removal is indicated by “the number of installed units”.

  In the parameter table Table5, “storage battery temperature setting” is an example of a parameter for setting a temperature condition for operating the storage battery, and the value set in the “storage battery temperature setting” is the operation cost table Table2 (see FIG. 6). Corresponds to the value of “storage battery temperature setting”.

  FIG. 14 is a table showing an example of parameters relating to the capacity of the storage battery set in the operation simulation apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention. The capacity parameter table Table6 shown in FIG. 14 shows calculation results of parameters related to the capacity of the storage battery based on the set parameters and simulation results. Specifically, in the capacity parameter table Table 6, “year” indicates the time elapsed in the simulation in units of years, and the value of “year” is the value of “year” shown in the parameter table Table 5 (see FIG. 13). Correspond.

  In the capacity parameter table Table 6, “installed capacity” is the installed capacity added to the corresponding “year”. Specifically, the “installed capacity” is a value obtained by multiplying the parameter table Table5 by “the number of additional units” and “the capacity of the storage battery per unit” shown in the condition input table Table1 (see FIG. 9). Is done. In addition, in “removed capacity”, a real capacity corresponding to the removed storage battery is input. Furthermore, the real capacity calculated based on the change in the number of storage batteries due to addition and removal and the deterioration rate is input to the “real capacity”.

  FIG. 15 is a table showing an example of the facility cost calculated by the operation simulation apparatus in one embodiment of the present invention. The facility cost calculation table Table7 shown in FIG. 15 shows an example of the calculation result of the facility cost calculated by the operation simulation. Specifically, in the equipment cost calculation table Table7, “year” indicates the elapsed time in the simulation in year, and the value of “year” is the value of “year” shown in the parameter table Table5 (see FIG. 13). Correspond.

  In the equipment cost calculation table Table 7, “equipment cost” is calculated based on the installed capacity added to the corresponding “year” and the cost conditions such as the storage battery price determined by the unit price table Table 3 (see FIG. 11). Respectively.

  FIG. 16 is a table showing a setting example of parameters set in the operation simulation apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention. In the parameter table Table5 shown in FIG. 16, parameters for simulating operation for 10 years are set. Specifically, as illustrated in FIG. 16, the parameter table Table5 is a setting in which “4” storage batteries are first added to “first year”. Accordingly, the “number of installed units” in “first year” indicates that “4” storage batteries are added. Further, as illustrated in FIG. 16, the parameter table Table 5 has a temperature of “10 ° C. or less” according to the operation cost table Table 2 (see FIG. 10) by setting “1” to the “storage battery temperature setting”. The temperature condition is set as follows.

  Further, as illustrated in FIG. 16, the parameter table Table 5 removes “1” storage battery from “4” storage batteries in “seventh year” and further adds “1” storage battery. Change is set. That is, in the “seventh year”, among the “four” storage batteries, “one” storage battery is replaced with a new storage battery with little deterioration.

  Further, as illustrated in FIG. 16, the parameter table Table 5 sets “1” to each “storage battery temperature setting” from “1st year” to “10th year”, and “10 ° C. or less” in any year. The temperature condition is set so that the temperature of Therefore, a temperature management cost of “800 thousand yen” is charged for each year based on the operation cost table Table2. In addition, since the parameter table Table5 is changed to add a storage battery in “first year” and “seventh year”, each change incurs equipment costs. Specifically, since “four” storage batteries are added in “first year”, an installation capacity of “250 kWh × 4 pieces = 1000 kWh” is added based on the condition input table Table1 (see FIG. 9). Is done. Therefore, “first year” has an installation cost of “1000 kWh × 200.0 thousand yen / kWh = 200000 thousand yen” based on the unit price table Table 3 (see FIG. 11).

  Similarly, since “1” storage battery is added in “seventh year”, an installation capacity of “250 kWh × 1 piece = 250 kWh” is added. Therefore, in the “seventh year”, an installation cost of “250 kWh × 135.3 thousand yen / kWh = 33825 thousand yen” is incurred based on the unit price table Table3.

  FIG. 17 is a table showing a setting example of parameters related to the capacity of the storage battery set in the operation simulation apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention. As illustrated in FIG. 17, the capacity parameter table Table 6 is set with a change in which the installed capacity of “250 kWh × 4 = 1000 kWh” is added to the “installed capacity” of “first year”. On the other hand, a change in which an installation capacity of “250 kWh × 1 piece = 250 kWh” is added to the “installation capacity” of “seventh year” is set. In addition, in the “seventh year”, since the deteriorated “one” storage battery is removed, the “removed capacity” in the “seventh year” is set to be changed so that the real capacity of “168 kWh” is removed. .

  In addition, the “real capacity” is set with “installed capacity”, “removed capacity”, and a real capacity calculated based on the deterioration rate. For example, in “first year”, assuming that the initial deterioration rate of the storage battery is “6%”, the actual capacity is calculated as “1000 kWh × (1.00−0.06) = 940 kWh”, and “940 kWh” is “1”. Set to "Real capacity" of "Year". That is, out of the installed capacity “1000 kWh”, the capacity that cannot be charged due to deterioration of the storage battery is obtained by the deterioration rate, and the capacity excluding the capacity that cannot be charged due to deterioration from the installed capacity is calculated as the actual capacity.

  Similarly, in each year, the real capacity is calculated based on the deterioration rate. In addition, when addition and removal are set as in “seventh year”, each change is reflected and the real capacity is calculated. Specifically, in the “seventh year”, when the deterioration rate after seven years is “33%”, the installation capacity corresponding to “one” storage battery is “250 kWh” and “1.00− Multiplying by “0.33 = 0.67”, the real capacity of “250 kWh × 0.67≈168 kWh” is removed. That is, the actual capacity of “168 kWh” removed in the “seventh year” corresponds to “one” storage battery that has deteriorated to a deterioration rate of “33%”.

  FIG. 18 is a table showing an example of the calculation result of the equipment cost calculated by the operation simulation apparatus in one embodiment of the present invention. As illustrated in FIG. 18, facility costs calculated for each year based on the unit price table Table 3 (see FIG. 11) are set in the facility cost calculation table Table 7. Specifically, “1000 kWh × 200.0 thousand yen / kWh = 200000 thousand yen” is set in “equipment cost” in “first year”, and “equipment cost” in “seventh year” “250 kWh × 135.3 thousand yen / kWh = 33825 thousand yen” is set.

<< Execution example of simulation (step S30) >>
Returning to FIG. 4, in step S30, the operation simulation apparatus executes a simulation based on the simulation model Sim1 shown in FIG.

  FIG. 19 is a flowchart showing an execution example of a simulation based on a simulation model by the operation simulation apparatus in one embodiment of the present invention.

≪ Example of setting wind speed in power generation equipment model (step S <b> 301) ≫
In step S301, the operation simulation apparatus sets the wind speed in the power generation facility Sim2 (see FIG. 3), which is a simulation model of the power generation facility, based on the power data. Specifically, the operation simulation apparatus sets “7.78 m / s” that is “wind speed” input in the first row of the power table Table4 (see FIG. 12).

<< Calculation Example of Generated Power Generated by Power Generation Facility (Step S302) >>
In step S302, the operation simulation apparatus calculates the generated power Pg (see FIG. 3) generated by the power generation facility Sim2 based on the set wind speed. Specifically, the generated power Pg generated by the power generation facility Sim2 is calculated based on the wind speed set in step S301. Note that, when the generated power Pg is calculated in advance and the value of the generated power Pg is input as in “generated power” of the power table Table 4 shown in FIG. 12, the calculation is omitted, and the power table shown in FIG. The value input to “Generated power” of Table 4 is used. In the following description, the power generation facility Sim2 is an example of a rated output of 1500 kW.

<< Calculation Example of Discharge Power Discharged by Storage Battery System (Step S303) >>
In step S303, the operation simulation apparatus calculates a discharge power Pbat (see FIG. 3) discharged by the storage battery system Sim10 (see FIG. 3). The storage battery system Sim10 discharges the discharge power Pbat so as to satisfy the “variation width of the output power” in the condition input table Table1 (see FIG. 9) set as a constraint condition. Specifically, under the constraint condition by the condition input table Table1 shown in FIG. 9, when the generated power Pg and the discharge power Pbat are combined, the fluctuation range of the output power Psum (see FIG. 3) becomes “1%” or less. As described above, the storage battery system Sim10 discharges the discharge power Pbat. For the real capacity, a value set in “real capacity” of the capacity parameter table Table 6 shown in FIG. 17 is used. Specifically, “940 kWh” is used as the real capacity for “first year”.

<< Calculation example of output power and fluctuation range (step S304) >>
In step S304, the operation simulation apparatus calculates an output power Psum (see FIG. 3) and a fluctuation range based on the calculated discharge power Pbat and generated power Pg.

  FIG. 20 is a table showing an example of a simulation result by the operation simulation apparatus in one embodiment of the present invention. For example, the simulation results calculated by the operation simulation apparatus in step S303 and step S304 are stored in the simulation result table Table8. Specifically, in the simulation result table Table 8, “date and time” stores a numerical value indicating the date and time when the conditions of each simulation result can be specified. The “date and time” corresponds to the “date and time” in the power table Table4 shown in FIG. Further, the “generated power” stores the generated power Pg calculated in step S302. Further, the “discharge power” stores the discharge power Pbat calculated in step S303. Furthermore, the “output power” stores the output power Psum obtained by adding the generated power Pg and the discharge power Pbat. The “variation width” stores a value calculated based on the amount of change in which the calculated output power Psum varies with time.

<< Calculation example of charge rate and number of cycles (step S305) >>
Returning to FIG. 19, in step S <b> 305, the operation simulation apparatus calculates a charging rate and a cycle number. Specifically, first, the charge amount is obtained by integrating the product of the DC current Ibat (see FIG. 3) and the DC voltage Ebat (see FIG. 3) over time, and then the ratio of the charge amount to the installed capacity is calculated. Then, the charging rate is calculated.

  The number of cycles is a value obtained by, for example, counting the number of times the operation simulation apparatus performs charging and discharging, and multiplying the counted value by the amount of change in the charging rate that has changed due to charging or discharging. For example, when the charge rate of “100%” becomes “30%” after “one-time” discharge, the amount of change is “100% −30% = 70% = 0.7”. In this example, the number of cycles is calculated as “1 time × 0.7 = 0.7 times”. Note that the number of cycles may be calculated by other calculation methods.

  FIG. 21 is a table showing an example of a calculation result related to the storage battery by the operation simulation apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention. For example, the calculation result calculated by the operation simulation apparatus in step S305 is stored in the storage battery management table Table9. Specifically, in the storage battery management table Table9, “No” stores a numerical value indicating a number for specifying data stored in the storage battery management table Table9. Further, for example, when the storage battery management table Table 9 stores the calculation result every day, “date and time” stores a numerical value for specifying the date. Further, in the “storage battery ID”, when the storage battery system Sim10 (see FIG. 3) has a plurality of storage batteries Sim13 (see FIG. 3), or when the storage battery is changed as in the capacity parameter table Table6 shown in FIG. A numerical value indicating an identification number (ID) or the like that can identify each storage battery is stored. Furthermore, a numerical value indicating the charging rate calculated in step S305 is stored in the “charging rate”. In the “cycle number”, a numerical value indicating the cycle number calculated in step S305 is stored.

<< Example of calculation of deterioration rate (step S306) >>
Returning to FIG. 19, in step S306, the operation simulation apparatus calculates a deterioration rate. The deterioration rate is calculated by, for example, the following equation (1).

In the above equation (1), “μ” is a deterioration rate obtained by calculation, and “μ ₀ ” indicates an initial deterioration rate, that is, a deterioration rate at the time of addition. The initial deterioration rate is determined by the storage battery specifications and the like. In the above equation (1), “t _SOC ” indicates the elapsed time for each charging rate, and is a value calculated based on the simulation result. Further, in the above equation (1), “N _DOD ” indicates the number of cycles and is a value calculated based on the simulation result. Furthermore, in the above equation (1), “k _SOC ” is a deterioration coefficient indicating the deterioration of capacity due to storage of the storage battery, which is determined by the type and characteristics of the storage battery, the operating temperature, and the like. In the above equation (1), “k _DOD ” is a deterioration coefficient indicating the deterioration of the capacity due to the cycle.

In the above equation (1), the deterioration rate due to aging can be calculated based on “k _SOC ” and “t _SOC ”. Further, in the above equation (1), the deterioration rate due to the cycle can be calculated based on “k _DOD ” and “N _DOD ”.

<< Example of calculation of real capacity (step S307) >>
In step S307, the operation simulation apparatus calculates a real capacity. For example, the actual capacity of “first year” is an initial deterioration rate (“μ ₀ ” in the above formula (1)) set in advance to a value set in “installed capacity” of the capacity parameter table Table 6 shown in FIG. Is calculated by multiplying the “installed capacity” by (1−initial deterioration rate). Specifically, when the initial deterioration rate is “6%”, the real capacity is calculated by “1000 × (1−0.06)”. In each year other than “first year”, the real capacity of each year is calculated based on the deterioration rate calculated by the above equation (1) for each year.

≪Example of temperature management cost calculation (step S308) ≫
In step S308, the operation simulation apparatus calculates a temperature management cost.

  FIG. 22 is a table showing an example of a calculation result related to the temperature management cost by the operation simulation apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention. For example, in step S308, the calculation result of the temperature management cost calculated by the operation simulation apparatus is stored in the temperature management cost result table Table10. The temperature management cost result table Table10 shown in FIG. 22 shows an example of the calculation result of the temperature management cost calculated by the operation simulation. Specifically, in the temperature management cost result table Table10, “year” indicates the time elapsed in the simulation in years, and the value of “year” is the value of “year” shown in the parameter table Table5 (see FIG. 13). Corresponding to

  In the temperature management cost result table Table10, the “temperature management cost” is calculated for each year based on the temperature condition set in the corresponding “year” and the operation cost table Table2 (see FIG. 10).

<< Judgment example of whether to end the simulation (step S309) >>
Returning to FIG. 19, in step S309, the operation simulation apparatus determines whether or not to end the simulation. Specifically, when the operation simulation apparatus simulates 10 years from “1st year” to “10th year” for each year by setting with the capacity parameter table Table 6 shown in FIG. Judgment is made based on whether all the simulations for the year have been completed. That is, when the simulation for 10 years is completed, the operation simulation apparatus determines to end the simulation. On the other hand, when the simulation for 10 years has not ended, the operation simulation apparatus determines that the simulation is not ended.

  When it is determined that the operation simulation apparatus ends the simulation (YES in step S309), the operation simulation apparatus ends the process illustrated in FIG. On the other hand, when it is determined that the operation simulation apparatus does not end the simulation (NO in step S309), the operation simulation apparatus proceeds to step S301 and performs each process for the next year.

  FIG. 23 is a table showing a calculation result example of a simulation result by the operation simulation apparatus in one embodiment of the present invention. The simulation result table Table 8 shown in FIG. 23 shows calculation results calculated every 10 seconds as shown in “Date and time”. Specifically, the generated power Pg calculated in step S302 in FIG. 19 and the discharge power Pbat calculated in step S303 in FIG. 19 are calculated for each “date and time” by repeating step S309. As illustrated in FIG. 23, the calculation results for 10 years are input to “generated power” and “discharge power” in the simulation result table Table 8, respectively. Further, the output power Psum and the fluctuation range ΔPsum are calculated every 10 seconds (step S304 in FIG. 19). By repeating step S309, the calculation result for 10 years is “output power” in the simulation result table Table8. And “variation width”. In the simulation result table Table 8, in “discharge power”, a negative value indicates charging, and a positive value indicates discharging.

  For example, in the simulation result table Table 8 shown in FIG. 23, when the “date and time” is “January 1 00:00:00”, the generated power Pg is “473 kW” according to the power table Table 4 shown in FIG. . On the other hand, in the simulation result table Table 8 shown in FIG. 23, since the discharge power Pbat is “12 kW (discharge)”, the output power Psum is calculated as “473 kW + 12 kW = 485 kW” (step S304 in FIG. 19). .

  Similarly, when the “date and time” is “January 1, 00:00:00”, the generated power Pg is “526 kW” according to the power table Table4 shown in FIG. On the other hand, in the simulation result table Table 8 shown in FIG. 23, since the discharge power Pbat is “−35 kW (charge)”, the output power Psum is calculated as “526 kW + (− 35 kW) = 491 kW” (FIG. 23). 19 step S304).

  Next, the output power Psum of “January 1 00:00:00” is “485 kW” and the output power Psum of “January 1 00:00:00” is “491 kW”. When these are compared, when “491 kW-485 kW = 6 kW”, for the time of 10 seconds from “January 1 00:00:00” to “January 1 00:00:00”, A change amount of the output power Psum is obtained.

  Furthermore, the operation simulation apparatus calculates the ratio of the obtained change amount with respect to the rated output 1500 kW of the power generation facility Sim2 (see FIG. 3) as a fluctuation range. Specifically, when the change amount is “6 kW”, the fluctuation range is calculated as “6 kW ÷ 1500 kW = 0.004 = 0.4%”, and the calculation result is the simulation result table Table8 shown in FIG. Is input to the “variation range” (step S304 in FIG. 19).

  FIG. 24 is a table showing a calculation example of a calculation result related to the storage battery by the operation simulation apparatus in one embodiment of the present invention. The storage battery management table Table 9 shown in FIG. 24 has “2014” (“first year”), “storage battery ID” “11”, “12”, and “3” storage batteries Sim13 (see FIG. 24). 3) is an example of a setting to be added. In addition, as shown in FIG. 16, the setting for changing “1” storage battery in “7th year” is to remove the storage battery whose “storage battery ID” is “11” in “7th year” and “storage battery ID” "Indicates that a storage battery with" 71 "is added. Furthermore, the storage battery management table Table 9 shown in FIG. 24 receives the calculation results for “charging rate” and “number of cycles” by simulation (step S305 in FIG. 19). Note that the storage battery management table Table 9 shown in FIG. 24 is an example in which a calculation result is input every day.

  FIG. 25 is a table showing a calculation example of the calculation result related to the temperature management cost by the operation simulation apparatus in one embodiment of the present invention. The temperature management cost result table Table 10 shown in FIG. 25 is an example in which the temperature management cost is calculated for each of the 10 years from the “first year” to the “10th year”. For example, the temperature management fee is calculated from the utility cost for one year every year. Specifically, in the case of the setting by the parameter table Table 5 shown in FIG. 16, the “storage battery temperature setting” is “1” as the temperature condition for each year. Furthermore, when the operation cost table Table2 shown in FIG. 10 is input as input data, if the “storage battery temperature setting” is a temperature condition of “1”, the temperature management cost can be specified as “800 thousand yen / year”. . Therefore, as shown in FIG. 25, the temperature management costs for “1st year” to “10th year” are each calculated as “800 thousand yen”, and as shown in FIG. It is stored in the table Table10.

<< Example of determining whether or not constraint conditions are satisfied (step S40) >>
Returning to FIG. 4, in step S40, the operation simulation apparatus determines whether or not the constraint condition is satisfied. Specifically, when the condition input table Table1 shown in FIG. 9 is input, the constraint condition is “the fluctuation range is 1% or less”. Therefore, in step S40, the operation simulation apparatus determines whether or not the constraint condition is satisfied depending on whether or not the value input to “variation width” of the simulation result table Table8 shown in FIG. 23 is “1” or less. To do. In other words, when all the values input to the “variation range” of the simulation result table Table 8 are “1” or less, the operation simulation apparatus determines that the constraint condition is satisfied. On the other hand, if any of the values input to the “variation range” of the simulation result table Table 8 is greater than “1”, the operation simulation apparatus determines that the constraint condition is not satisfied.

  If it is determined that the operation simulation apparatus satisfies the constraint condition (YES in step S40), the operation simulation apparatus proceeds to step S50. On the other hand, if the operation simulation apparatus determines that the constraint condition is not satisfied (NO in step S40), the operation simulation apparatus proceeds to step S20.

  When the operation simulation apparatus determines that the constraint condition is not satisfied and the process proceeds to step S20 (NO in step S40), the parameters set in the parameter table Table5 shown in FIG. 13 are changed to other values. .

<< Evaluation Value Calculation Example (Step S50) >>
In step S50, the operation simulation apparatus calculates an evaluation value.

  FIG. 26 is a table showing an example of evaluation values obtained by the operation simulation apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention. For example, the evaluation value is calculated based on each value shown in the evaluation value table Table11. Specifically, in the evaluation value table Table11, a numerical value indicating a serial number or the like for specifying each evaluation value is input to “No”. In addition, in the “storage battery unit addition pattern”, numerical values indicating the time when the storage battery is added and the number of storage batteries to be added are input in the simulation. Furthermore, in the “storage battery unit removal pattern”, a numerical value indicating the time of removing the storage battery, the number of storage batteries to be removed, and the like is input in the simulation. Furthermore, in the “storage battery temperature setting pattern”, a numerical value that specifies the temperature condition of each year is input in the simulation. In the “total temperature management cost”, a numerical value obtained by totaling the temperature management costs for each year calculated by the simulation is input. Furthermore, a numerical value obtained by totaling the equipment costs for each year calculated by the simulation is input to “total equipment costs”. Furthermore, the “evaluation value” is inputted with a numerical value obtained by adding up the calculated “total temperature management cost” and “total equipment cost”.

  FIG. 27 is a diagram illustrating an example of an operation pattern of simulation by the operation simulation apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention. For example, as shown in the figure, an example in which the operation simulation apparatus simulates two operation patterns of the first operation pattern P1 and the second operation pattern P2 will be described.

  It is assumed that the first operation pattern P1 and the second operation pattern P2 are both simulated under the constraint conditions by the condition input table Table1 shown in FIG. That is, in the first operation pattern P1 and the second operation pattern P2, the maximum number of storage batteries that can be installed is “4”, and the installation capacity of each storage battery is the same at “250 kWh”. In the first operation pattern P1 and the second operation pattern P2, the operation cost table Table2 shown in FIG. 10, the unit price table Table3 shown in FIG. 11, and the power table Table4 shown in FIG. 12 are input. That is, since the same data is used for the power data and the input data, the constraint condition and the cost condition are the same. If the temperature condition is the same, the temperature management cost required for each year is the same condition. .

  The 1st operation pattern P1 adds storage battery B11, storage battery B12, and storage battery B13 "three" storage batteries to "the 1st year" (at the time of an operation start), and also a storage battery in "the 5th year" It is a pattern for adding “1” storage battery of B14. On the other hand, in the second operation pattern P2, “four” storage batteries B21, B22, B23, and B24 are added to “first year”, and storage battery B24 is added to “seventh year”. The “1” storage battery is removed, and the “1” storage battery of the storage battery B25 is added.

  Further, in the first operation pattern P1, the temperature condition of each year is a pattern “3” among the patterns input to the operation cost table Table2 shown in FIG. On the other hand, in the second operation pattern P2, the temperature condition of each year is a pattern of “1” among the patterns input to the operation cost table Table2 shown in FIG.

  FIG. 28 is a table showing an example of calculation of evaluation values by the operation simulation apparatus in one embodiment of the present invention. In the evaluation value table Table11 shown in FIG. 28, the calculation result of the evaluation value in step S50 (see FIG. 4) is input. As shown in FIG. 28, in the evaluation value table Table11, the data whose “No” is “1” is the first operation pattern P1 shown in FIG. 27, and the data whose “No” is “2” is shown in FIG. 2 shows an example in which operation pattern P2 is set.

  In the “storage battery unit addition pattern”, each digit of the numerical value corresponds to each year, and in FIG. 28, the pattern is input with a numerical value of 10 digits because it indicates 10 years. That is, when “No” is “1”, a numerical value “3” indicating that “3” storage batteries are to be added is input to the first digit from the left indicating “first year”. A numerical value “1” indicating that “1” storage battery is added is input to the numerical value in the fifth digit from the left indicating “5th year”. Similarly, when “No” is “2”, a numerical value of “4” indicating that “4 batteries” are added is input to the numerical value of the first digit from the left indicating “first year”, A numerical value “1” indicating that “1” storage battery is added is input to the numerical value in the seventh digit from the left indicating “seventh year”.

  In the “storage battery unit removal pattern”, each digit of the numerical value corresponds to each year, and in FIG. 28, the pattern is input with a numerical value of 10 digits because it indicates 10 years. That is, when “No” is “1”, removal of the storage battery is not performed, and therefore, a numerical value of “0” is input. On the other hand, when “No” is “2”, a numerical value “1” indicating that “1” storage battery is to be removed is input as the seventh digit from the left indicating “seventh year”.

  In the “storage battery temperature setting pattern”, each digit of the numerical value corresponds to each year, and the numerical value of each digit is one of the values of the pattern input to “storage battery temperature setting” of the operation cost table Table2 shown in FIG. Corresponding to In FIG. 28, when “No” is “1”, numerical values of “3”, all of which are set to a temperature condition of “30 ° C. or less”, are input to each digit. On the other hand, when “No” is “2”, a numerical value of “1” with all temperature conditions of “10 ° C. or less” is input to each digit.

  In the “total temperature management cost”, a numerical value obtained by totaling the respective temperature management costs for 10 years corresponding to the temperature condition input in the “storage battery temperature setting pattern” is input.

  In “total equipment cost”, a numerical value obtained by totaling the respective equipment costs for 10 years related to the change of the storage battery indicated by the “storage battery unit addition pattern” and the “storage battery unit removal pattern” is input.

  In the “evaluation value”, a numerical value obtained by adding up “total temperature management cost” and “total equipment cost” is input.

<< Judgment example of whether to end evaluation (step S60) >>
Returning to FIG. 4, in step S60, the operation simulation apparatus determines whether or not to end the evaluation. That is, the operation simulation apparatus changes the parameters or data, and repeats the processing from step S10 to step S50 until the evaluation values of all patterns are calculated. Therefore, in step S60, when all the evaluation values have been calculated, it is determined that the evaluation is to end. It should be noted that the condition for determining that the evaluation is to be ended may be a case where evaluation values are calculated for all patterns, or may be determined by an evaluation time or the like. Further, when a method such as metaheuristics is used for parameter setting, a condition for determining that the evaluation suitable for the method is to be ended may be set.

  If it is determined that the operation simulation apparatus ends the evaluation (YES in step S60), the operation simulation apparatus proceeds to step S70. On the other hand, if the operation simulation apparatus determines that the evaluation is not completed (NO in step S60), the operation simulation apparatus proceeds to step S20. When the operation simulation apparatus determines that the evaluation is not completed and proceeds to step S20 (NO in step S60), for example, parameters set in the parameter table Table5 shown in FIG. 13 are changed to other values.

<< Display example of optimum capacity (step S70) >>
In step S70, the operation simulation apparatus displays the optimum capacity. For example, when a calculation result such as the evaluation value table Table11 shown in FIG. 28 is obtained, in step S70, the operation simulation apparatus extracts and displays an operation pattern having the smallest “evaluation value”. Specifically, in the evaluation value table Table 11 shown in FIG. 28, the operation pattern “No” is “1” has the evaluation value “192750”. On the other hand, the operation value “No” is “2” has the evaluation value “241825”. Therefore, in this case, the operation pattern (corresponding to the first operation pattern P1 in FIG. 27) having the smallest evaluation value “No” is “1” is extracted and displayed as the optimum capacity.

  When the operation is started, the storage battery deteriorates with time, so that the real capacity decreases. When the real capacity decreases, the capacity of charging and discharging by the storage battery system Sim10 (see FIG. 3) may decrease, and the fluctuation of the output power Psum (see FIG. 3) may not be reduced. For this reason, in operation, it is necessary to change to remove a deteriorated storage battery and add a new storage battery with little deterioration. Alternatively, it is necessary to add a storage battery having a sufficient capacity at the start of operation so that the storage battery does not need to be changed during the operation period.

  The price of the storage battery tends to decrease as in the unit price table Table3 shown in FIG. In addition, as in the first operation pattern P1 illustrated in FIG. 27, the deterioration of the storage battery can be suppressed when the temperature condition for operating the storage battery such as “10 ° C. or less” is set to a low temperature. Similarly, when the operation is performed so that the charging rate is lowered, deterioration of the storage battery can be suppressed. Furthermore, if the operation is performed so that the number of cycles is reduced, deterioration of the storage battery can be suppressed.

FIG. 29 is a diagram illustrating an example of a change in the deterioration rate with time in one embodiment of the present invention. For example, when the operation of the storage battery is started, the deterioration rate increases with time from the initial deterioration rate “μ ₀ ” to “μ ₁ ” as shown in the graph G1. On the other hand, when the storage battery is operated at a low temperature condition, the storage battery is operated at a low charging rate, or is operated so that the number of cycles is reduced, the time elapses as shown in the graph G2. Accordingly, it is possible to suppress the deterioration rate from increasing.

  When the first operation pattern P1 shown in FIG. 27 is compared with the second operation pattern P2, the first operation pattern P1 is set at a higher temperature for operating the storage battery than the second operation pattern P2. The storage battery used for the pattern P1 deteriorates faster than the storage battery used for the second operation pattern P2. Accordingly, the first operation pattern P1 is an operation pattern in which a storage battery needs to be added earlier (“fifth year”) than the storage battery change (“seventh year”) in the second operation pattern P2. In addition, since the number of storage batteries added to the first operation pattern P1 when the operation is started ("first year") is "3", the equipment for starting the operation from the second operation pattern P2 Cost is a pattern that can be suppressed. Furthermore, since the temperature which operates a storage battery is set higher than the 2nd operation pattern P2, the 1st operation pattern P1 is a pattern which can also suppress a temperature management expense from the 2nd operation pattern P2.

  On the other hand, in the second operation pattern P2, the temperature at which the storage battery is operated is set lower than that in the first operation pattern P1, so that the storage battery used in the second operation pattern P2 is the storage battery used in the second operation pattern P2. Thus, deterioration can be suppressed. Furthermore, in the second operation pattern P2, the number of storage batteries to be added when starting operation is “4”, and the installation capacity when starting operation is large compared to the first operation pattern P1. Therefore, the 2nd operation pattern P2 is a pattern which can delay the time which changes a storage battery rather than the 1st operation pattern P1, and can control the equipment cost concerning change of a storage battery by the price of a storage battery falling.

  Therefore, as in the first operation pattern P1 and the second operation pattern P2, the cost required for operation varies depending on the time when the storage battery is changed. On the other hand, the operation simulation device calculates the cost for operation satisfying the constraints from the temperature management cost for management based on the temperature condition and the equipment cost calculated based on the cost condition. In the simulation of the storage battery facility, the cost can be calculated with high accuracy. Therefore, the operation simulation apparatus can display the optimum capacity.

  Note that all or part of each processing according to an embodiment of the present invention may be a low-level language such as a machine language or an assembler, a high-level language such as C language, Java (registered trademark), or an object-oriented programming language, or It may be realized by a program for causing a computer described by combining them to be executed. That is, the program is a computer program for causing a computer such as an operation simulation apparatus to execute all or part of each process.

  The program can be stored and distributed in a computer-readable recording medium such as ROM or EEPROM (Electrically Erasable Programmable ROM). Furthermore, the recording medium is EPROM (Erasable Programmable ROM), flash memory, flexible disk, CD-ROM, CD-RW, DVD-ROM, DVD-RAM, DVD-RW, Blu-ray disc, SD (registered trademark) card, or MO etc. may be sufficient. Furthermore, the program can be distributed through a telecommunication line.

  Furthermore, all or part of each process according to an embodiment of the present invention may be realized by an operation simulation system having one or more information processing apparatuses including an operation simulation apparatus.

  The preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail above, but the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and various modifications or changes can be made within the scope of the gist of the present invention described in the claims. Is possible.

10 operation simulation device Sim1 simulation model Sim2 power generation facility Sim10 storage battery system Sim11 control device Sim12 inverter Sim13 storage battery Pg generation power Pbat discharge power Psum output power

Claims (14)

An operation simulation device for simulating the operation of a storage battery connected to a power generation facility that generates electric power using renewable energy,
An input unit for inputting power data indicating generated power generated by the power generation facility;
A cost condition indicating a cost for changing the storage battery, a temperature condition for operating the storage battery, and a setting unit for setting a constraint condition;
Based on the temperature condition, a charge rate indicating a ratio of a charge amount of power charged to the storage battery to a capacity that can be charged by the storage battery, and a cycle number based on the charge amount and a discharge amount of power discharged from the storage battery. A deterioration rate calculation unit for calculating a deterioration rate of the storage battery;
An operation simulation apparatus comprising: a cost calculation unit that calculates a cost for operation satisfying the constraint condition based on a temperature management cost for temperature management satisfying the temperature condition and an equipment cost calculated based on the cost condition.   The operation simulation device according to claim 1, wherein when the generated power is power generated by wind power generation, the power data includes data indicating wind speed or power generated by the wind speed.   The operation according to claim 1, wherein the temperature management cost includes a utility cost for cooling or heating the storage battery or the surroundings of the storage battery so that the temperature management cost is equal to or lower than a predetermined temperature determined by the temperature condition or a predetermined temperature range. Simulation device.   The operation according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the cost calculation unit calculates the facility cost based on a quantity of the storage battery installed, a time when the storage battery is changed, and the cost condition. Simulation device.   5. The operation simulation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the deterioration rate calculation unit calculates the number of cycles based on the number of times of performing the discharging and the charging.   The operation simulation apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the change is addition or removal of the storage battery.   The operation simulation apparatus according to claim 4, wherein the cost condition indicates a price of the storage battery for each time when the change is performed.   The operation simulation device according to claim 1, wherein a capacity that can be charged by the storage battery is calculated based on the deterioration rate.   The operation simulation apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 8, wherein the constraint condition includes a condition indicating a constraint related to a fluctuation range of output power including the generated power and the discharged power.   The operation simulation device according to claim 1, wherein the constraint condition includes a condition that restricts a quantity that can be installed in the storage battery.   The deterioration rate is calculated based on a coefficient determined by the type, characteristics, and operating temperature of the storage battery, a time lapse for each charging rate, a coefficient determined by the charging and discharging cycles, and the number of cycles. The operation simulation apparatus according to claim 1. An operation simulation system having one or more information processing devices including an operation simulation device that simulates the operation of a storage battery connected to a power generation facility that generates electric power using renewable energy,
An input unit for inputting power data indicating generated power generated by the power generation facility;
A cost condition indicating a cost for changing the storage battery, a temperature condition for operating the storage battery, and a setting unit for setting a constraint condition;
Based on the temperature condition, a charge rate indicating a ratio of a charge amount of power charged to the storage battery to a capacity that can be charged by the storage battery, and a cycle number based on the charge amount and a discharge amount of power discharged from the storage battery. A deterioration rate calculation unit for calculating a deterioration rate of the storage battery;
An operation simulation system comprising: a temperature calculation cost for temperature management that satisfies the temperature condition; and a cost calculation unit that calculates a cost for operation that satisfies the constraint condition based on a facility management cost calculated based on the cost condition. A method for simulating a storage battery facility for a generator performed by an operation simulation device that simulates the operation of a storage battery connected to a power generation facility that generates power using renewable energy,
An input procedure in which the operation simulation apparatus inputs power data indicating generated power generated by the power generation facility;
The operation simulation apparatus sets a cost condition indicating a cost for changing the storage battery, a temperature condition for operating the storage battery, and a setting procedure for setting a constraint condition,
The operation simulation device has the temperature condition, a charge rate indicating a ratio of a charge amount of power charged in the storage battery to a capacity that can be charged by the storage battery, and a charge amount and a discharge amount of power discharged from the storage battery. A deterioration rate calculation procedure for calculating a deterioration rate of the storage battery based on the number of cycles based on the number of cycles,
A cost calculation procedure in which the operation simulation device calculates a cost for operation satisfying the constraint condition based on a temperature management cost for temperature management satisfying the temperature condition and a facility cost calculated based on the cost condition; A simulation method of a storage battery facility for a generator including A program for causing a computer that simulates the operation of a storage battery connected to a power generation facility that generates power by using renewable energy to perform a simulation of the storage battery facility for a generator,
An input procedure in which the computer inputs power data indicating generated power generated by the power generation facility;
A setting procedure for setting a cost condition indicating a cost required for changing the storage battery, a temperature condition for operating the storage battery, and a constraint condition;
A cycle based on the temperature condition, a charging rate indicating a ratio of a charge amount of power charged in the storage battery to a capacity that can be charged by the storage battery, and a charge amount and a discharge amount of power discharged from the storage battery. A deterioration rate calculation procedure for calculating a deterioration rate of the storage battery based on the number;
The computer executes a cost calculation procedure for calculating a cost for operation satisfying the constraint condition based on a temperature management cost for temperature management satisfying the temperature condition and an equipment cost calculated based on the cost condition. Program to let you.

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