CN110942204A - New power grid capital construction project annual planning model construction method and system - Google Patents
New power grid capital construction project annual planning model construction method and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a method and a system for constructing an annual plan compilation model of a newly-opened power grid infrastructure project, wherein the method comprises the following steps: determining an investment control coefficient and a total investment of a project plan; constructing a project milestone plan scheduling model; constructing a newly-opened project construction progress prediction model; and establishing a conversion relation between the construction physical quantity and the value quantity based on project milestone planning arrangement, the engineering construction progress and the project investment, and constructing a newly-opened project investment completion prediction model. The newly developed project annual plan compilation model constructed by the invention assists investment plan management professional daily investment management decisions, improves the working efficiency and also practically improves the working quality.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a method and a system for constructing an annual plan compilation model of a newly-opened power grid infrastructure project, and relates to the technical field of power grid infrastructure projects.
Background
The continuous promotion of the power transmission and distribution price reformation puts forward a higher requirement on the accuracy of the investment scheduling of the power grid company in the next three years, and how to scientifically and comprehensively arrange resources and ensure that the arrangement plan can be executed according to time is a key problem in the construction of the power grid infrastructure project of the current company. The strategic guidance of high quality, high efficiency and continuous development of the power grid is emphasized in the early 2019 of the national power grid company, the accurate investment is strengthened, the operation is stable, and the development mode of the company is promoted to be changed from a scale expansion type to a quality benefit type. The orderly reduction of the investment scale puts higher requirements on the reasonability of the arrangement of the investment resources and the use benefit and efficiency. How to arrange investment resources more reasonably becomes one of the important topics under the current strategic objectives of companies.
The operation mode of investment management of the power grid company needs to be changed urgently. At present, the annual investment planning of the power grid infrastructure project only depends on manual experience, scientific quantitative means and tools are lacked, and the accuracy of the investment planning needs to be further improved. The power grid company development department collects data of multiple professional departments such as construction, development and finance to a planning and planning platform for the first time from 2017, and a multi-department collaborative data monitoring and analyzing system is constructed. Until now, a large amount of data has been accumulated, and how to further mine data application and assist daily investment management work becomes work which needs to be developed urgently at present.
The wide application of new technologies such as big data, artificial intelligence and the like provides a new technical means for developing data values of potential mining enterprises and supporting companies. However, the current investment planning link only depends on manual offline planning and reporting, so that the working efficiency is low, and the improvement of the working quality is influenced. Therefore, it is urgently needed to make full use of the currently mature technical means and business data of the company to construct an annual decomposition model of the investment plan, and provide effective support for source management of the investment plan.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problems, the invention aims to provide a project annual investment plan decomposition model taking milestone plan scheduling as a core, and a newly-opened power grid infrastructure project annual plan compilation model construction method and system for realizing scientific and reasonable compilation of annual investment plans.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
in a first aspect, the present application provides a method for constructing an annual planning model of a newly-opened power grid infrastructure project, including the steps of:
determining an investment control coefficient and a total investment of a project plan;
constructing a project milestone plan scheduling model;
constructing a newly-opened project construction progress prediction model;
and establishing a conversion relation between the construction physical quantity and the value quantity based on the project milestone plan, the project construction progress and the project investment, and establishing a newly-opened project investment completion prediction model.
Further, the specific way of determining the investment control coefficient and the total investment of the project plan is as follows:
the investment control coefficient is 1-balance rate; wherein, the balance rate is (estimated/estimated-decision number)/estimated;
total planned investment-an estimable estimate-investment control factor.
Further, the specific process of constructing the project milestone plan scheduling model is as follows:
1) determining a model construction period parameter;
2) the method is characterized in that two modes of different centralized purchasing and agreement inventory are distinguished to predict key nodes of a material chain, and a project milestone planning and scheduling model of human and property cooperation is constructed, and the specific process is as follows:
① project layer construction period prediction, namely, according to the predicted production time, combining the construction period rule, arranging a project starting milestone plan upside down, supposing that the predicted production time is known, and knowing the project layer starting milestone, single layer civil engineering, equipment installation, equipment debugging and other key milestone stage construction period parameters corresponding to the characteristic of the project, the predicted production time calculation formula of the project is the predicted production time of the project-the type construction period of the project;
② predicting the construction period of the main monomer layer, namely, inverting the planned start time and the planned end time of the key milestone nodes according to the construction period rule of the milestone nodes;
③ predicting key nodes of the material chain, and obtaining the approach time of the equipment according to the milestone planning time of the installation/tower-assembling stage, wherein the initial value of the approach time of the main equipment is the planning starting time of the installation stage of the equipment;
④ according to the material entering time, combining with ERP material reasonable supply period, reverse pushing the material demand reporting time:
the initial value of the material demand reporting time is equal to the initial value of the equipment approach time, namely the average reasonable supply period of the materials;
⑤ determining the main material demand reporting time according to the reverse pushed material demand reporting time;
⑥ determining tender purchasing, contract signing, material supplying and equipment arrival time according to the determined material demand reporting time and in combination with material production and transportation periods of different materials.
Further, assuming that the predicted production time is known, the prediction is carried out according to the reverse sequence, and the specific process of predicting the planned start time and the planned end time of the key milestone node of the power transformation project is as follows:
the equipment debugging plan end time is the predicted production time of the project, namely 30 days;
the starting time of the equipment debugging plan is equal to the ending time of the equipment debugging plan and the average construction period of the equipment debugging stage;
the equipment installation plan ending time is the equipment debugging plan starting time-the process connection time interval between the equipment installation ending and the equipment debugging starting;
the starting time of the equipment installation plan is equal to the ending time of the equipment installation plan and the average construction period of the equipment installation stage;
the civil engineering construction plan ending time is equal to the equipment installation plan starting time-the process connection time interval between the civil engineering stage ending and the equipment installation starting;
and (4) the civil construction plan starting time is the civil construction plan ending time and the civil construction stage average construction period.
Further, the specific contents for constructing the newly-opened project construction progress prediction model are as follows:
the predicted value of the construction progress of the project sections monthly is monthly construction period/total project construction period;
the monthly construction progress predicted value of the milestone plan node is sigma (the monthly construction progress of each subsection project and the construction cost weight of each subsection project), the power transformation project milestone plan node mainly comprises civil engineering, equipment installation and equipment debugging, and the line milestone plan node mainly comprises foundation construction, tower building and stringing;
the monthly construction progress predicted value of the single project is sigma (the monthly construction progress of each milestone plan node is the milestone node construction cost weight); wherein, for projects needing to consider winter construction, no construction progress is assumed in 1-3 months.
Further, based on project milestone planning arrangement, project construction progress and project investment, establishing a conversion relation between construction physical quantity and value quantity, and establishing a newly-opened project investment completion prediction model, wherein the specific process is as follows:
(1) the construction project cost and the installation project cost are calculated by adopting a completion percentage method to calculate the investment completion amount, and a specific calculation formula is as follows:
building cost investment amount is calculated (building cost) approximately, building cost investment control coefficient is the predicted value of monthly construction progress in the civil engineering stage;
the investment amount of the installation cost is an approximate calculation (installation cost) and an installation cost investment control coefficient and a monthly construction progress predicted value in the installation stage;
the investment amount of the debugging cost is an approximate calculation (building cost) and investment control coefficient of the debugging cost is a monthly construction progress predicted value in a debugging stage;
(2) multiplying the equipment cost investment amount by an equipment cost investment control coefficient according to an approximate calculation, and predicting the equipment cost investment completion amount according to the time of a key material plan node in the milestone plan arrangement;
(3) other fees are used between planned start-up and production to forecast the completion amount of each detail cost investment according to monthly allocation or one-time accounting rules.
In a second aspect, this embodiment further provides a system for constructing an annual planning model of a newly-opened power grid infrastructure project, where the system includes:
the investment control coefficient calculation module is used for determining an investment control coefficient and the total investment of the project plan;
the project milestone plan scheduling model building module is used for building a project milestone plan scheduling model;
the newly-opened project construction progress construction module is used for constructing a newly-opened project construction progress prediction model;
the newly opened project investment completion prediction model is used for establishing a conversion relation between the physical quantity and the value quantity of construction based on project milestone planning arrangement, engineering construction progress and project investment, and establishing the newly opened project investment completion prediction model.
Due to the adoption of the technical scheme, the invention has the following characteristics:
1. the invention constructs a new-opened project annual investment plan compilation model for realizing annual decomposition of a total investment plan of the new-opened project, establishes a conversion relation between the physical quantity and the value quantity of the construction based on an influence conduction mechanism among project milestone plan arrangement, engineering construction progress and investment formation, predicts the new-opened project annual investment plan arrangement, constructs a new-opened project investment completion prediction model, provides a business logic basis for the construction of the new-opened project annual investment plan compilation model by deeply considering business association among construction, development, finance and material multiple departments related to the annual investment plan compilation, and provides guarantee for the scientificity and rationality of model calculation results for the construction of the new-opened project annual investment plan compilation model;
2. the invention converts the business logic into a strict quantitative mathematical relationship, constructs a set of complete and scientific milestone plan scheduling model by determining respective key milestone nodes of three layers of a project layer, a monomer layer and a material layer and linkage relationship among the key milestone nodes of the three layers, realizes reasonable overall arrangement of resources such as company people, property, materials and the like in a preorder link of investment management, and provides a feasible quantitative support means for practically improving the use efficiency of the resources;
3. the newly-opened project annual investment plan compilation model constructed by the invention assists the professional daily investment management decision of investment plan management, improves the working efficiency and the working quality practically, and the quantitative model tool has higher reliability through verification and has higher popularization and application values in enterprises similar to the national network or in the aspect of financial asset budgeting.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is an example of an investment control coefficient parameter for an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a key milestone node business rule in different material procurement modes (centralized procurement and agreement inventory) according to an embodiment of the invention.
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a milestone scheduling concept for a grid infrastructure project in a centralized procurement mode according to an embodiment of the invention;
fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of milestone scheduling for a grid infrastructure project in agreement inventory mode according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be obtained by a person skilled in the art without any inventive step based on the embodiments of the present invention, are within the scope of the present invention.
Example 1:
in this embodiment, when an annual investment plan is compiled, the documents to which the investment plan of the next new-opened project compilation can be referred mainly include project plan production time and estimatable (initial approximate calculation), and according to the framework of a construction, development and financial data monitoring and analyzing system, the existing conditions are combined to design an annual investment plan compilation idea of the new-opened project, and the specific idea is as follows:
firstly, determining an investment control coefficient and a project plan total investment: generally, when a new project annual investment plan is created, available basis is only exploitable estimation (initial estimation), in order to reduce the deviation between the exploitable estimation (initial estimation) and the actual required investment and improve the arrangement and use efficiency of resources, the balance rate condition of characteristics of different project types, different voltage levels, different city companies and the like to which the project belongs is considered, and an investment control coefficient is set according to the balance rate, as shown in fig. 1.
Secondly, constructing a milestone scheduling model: on the basis of fully researching multi-professional core business management of construction, materials and the like, the influence of project construction period, construction characteristics (winter construction) and the like on milestone plan arrangement is fully considered, the implementation time of key milestone nodes of project start-up and production, single project civil engineering, installation and the like is measured and calculated by utilizing data of historical project practice, planned construction period and the like, the milestone plan time is reasonably arranged, and data support is provided for construction progress prediction.
Thirdly, constructing a newly-opened project construction progress prediction model: on the basis of determining the key milestone plan, the milestone node time of the project layer and the monomer layer is predicted by using the milestone scheduling model, the monthly construction progress of the project is predicted by considering the conditions of winter construction and the like and using monthly construction period data.
Fourthly, constructing a newly opened project investment completion prediction model: and (3) distinguishing four expenses of investment completion, considering quantitative relations between the four expenses and key milestone nodes in physical construction, such as civil engineering, equipment installation, debugging and the like, building a newly opened project investment completion prediction model based on a monthly construction progress prediction model measuring and calculating result, and predicting monthly investment completion of the newly opened project.
Based on the above construction thought, the new power grid infrastructure project annual planning model construction method provided by this embodiment includes the specific processes:
s1, determining investment control coefficient and total investment of project plan
The current basis of investment planning is the ground estimation or the initial approximate calculation, and when more projects are completed and settled, the investment balance exists, so that the investment resources are not fully utilized. In order to improve the investment accuracy from the source, the embodiment studies the investment balance of attribute items such as different voltage levels and item types, and sets four cost investment control coefficients according to the balance condition to ensure the maximization of the resource utilization efficiency, and specifically calculates the formula:
the investment control coefficient is 1-balance rate; wherein, the balance rate is (estimatable/estimated-decision number)/estimated
Total planned investment-an estimable estimate-investment control factor.
S2, constructing project milestone plan scheduling model
And S21, determining the model construction period parameters according to the design thought of the milestone scheduling model.
To determine model schedule parameters, relevant business data is collected. In the embodiment, a power grid infrastructure project of 110 kilovolts or more is used as an analysis object, data collection is carried out according to the following data requirements, and historical data analysis is carried out to determine the condition of the model construction period parameters.
Wherein, the model construction period parameters comprise: and setting the construction period of a project layer, the construction period of a single body (power transformation and overhead line) and the key milestone stage (civil engineering, equipment installation and debugging of power transformation engineering; overhead line engineering) of foundation construction, tower assembly and stringing according to attributes such as different engineering types, different voltage levels, different construction properties and the like. The project types mainly include power transmission and transformation projects, power transformation extension, line transformation and the like, and are formed by combining a plurality of single projects, and the construction schedule arrangement of each single project is formed by arranging a plurality of key milestone nodes in time.
Further, the process for determining the construction period parameters of the model construction period parameters comprises the following steps:
(1) the project layer construction period is the actual project production time-the actual project start-up time;
(2) the construction period of main monomer engineering, namely power transformation engineering and overhead line engineering is determined:
①, if the data can not be directly obtained, determining the single-body transformation project construction period according to the following formula:
the project construction period of the single power transformation project is the final stage of the key milestone stage of the power transformation project, the actual end time of the debugging stage, the key milestone stage starting stage of the power transformation project, and the actual starting time of the civil engineering stage
②, if the data can not be directly obtained, determining the project time of the overhead line according to the following formula:
the construction period of the overhead line project is equal to the final stage of the key milestone stage of the overhead line project, namely the actual ending time of the stringing stage, the starting stage of the key milestone stage of the overhead line project, and the actual starting time of the foundation construction stage;
(3) key milestone stage construction period determination
The main monomers comprise monomer types of power transformation engineering, line engineering, cable line engineering and the like, and the key milestone stage of the power transformation engineering comprises a civil engineering stage, an equipment installation stage and a debugging stage; the key milestone stage of the overhead line engineering comprises foundation construction, foundation tower assembly and stringing; the key milestone stages of cable plant engineering include cable channeling, cable laying and cable commissioning.
① electric power transformation project
The construction period of the civil engineering stage is equal to the actual civil engineering ending time-the actual civil engineering starting time;
the equipment installation stage construction period is equal to the actual end time of equipment installation-the actual start time of equipment installation;
the debugging stage time limit is the debugging actual end time and the debugging actual start time;
② overhead line engineering
The construction period of the foundation construction stage is equal to the actual finishing time of the foundation construction and the actual starting time of the foundation construction;
the construction period of the tower grouping stage is equal to the actual end time of the tower grouping-the actual start time of the tower grouping;
the construction period of the stringing stage is equal to actual stringing ending time-actual stringing starting time;
③ Cable engineering
The cable channel stage construction period is equal to the actual end time of the cable channel and the actual start time of the cable channel;
the cable laying stage construction period is equal to the actual cable laying end time-the actual cable laying start time;
and the cable debugging stage construction period is the actual end time of cable debugging-the actual start time of cable debugging.
Calculating the construction periods of the project layer, the monomer layer and the key milestone stage of each sample project according to the calculation formula, then statistically analyzing the average construction period, the maximum construction period and the minimum construction period of three levels according to dimensions such as different voltage levels and different construction properties (different dimensions such as new construction, reconstruction and extension), and the like, and statistically analyzing the standard deviation of the construction period of each type of attribute project, determining the upper and lower limit intervals of the construction periods of the project layer, the monomer layer and the key milestone stage according to the standard deviation of plus or minus a few times of the mean value, and setting different types of construction period parameters according to the determined upper and lower limits of the construction period, so as to provide parameter bases for milestone inversion of subsequent models, as shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 data requirements Table
S22, in the project construction process, materials are used as key contents of the project construction, and have important influence on the time sequence arrangement of the key milestone nodes. Through research and understanding of services and systems, key nodes related to materials mainly comprise material demand reporting, agreement inventory matching, bid inviting purchasing, contract signing, material production period, material distribution and the like. Now, the differentiated centralized purchasing and the protocol inventory show the business rules among key nodes, as shown in fig. 2.
The range of the material management mode is influenced by a policy of 'putting in charge and taking out of charge' in 2019, and the following specific changes are generated: the scope of the protocol inventory procurement is expanded by incorporating 110(66) kv and below equipment, 220 kv and below materials into the protocol inventory procurement.
Since the research object of the embodiment is the power grid infrastructure project of 110 kilovolts and above, the 110 kilovolt equipment and the transition of the 220 kilovolt material purchasing mode, the material supply period is greatly shortened, and the arrangement of the key milestone nodes of the materials is greatly influenced. In the model construction process, 2 purchasing modes of centralized purchasing and agreement inventory are distinguished, and different milestone scheduling parameters need to be selected according to different voltage grades when model parameters are set, as shown in table 2.
TABLE 2 agreement results of inventory, centralized procurement under the influence of the policy of "put in management
Based on the construction period of the power grid infrastructure project and the time sequence rule of key milestone nodes of material chains, the influence of factors such as construction characteristics of the power grid infrastructure project, purchasing batch, delivery period of materials and the like on the arrangement of project investment time sequences is fully considered, centralized purchasing and protocol inventory purchasing modes are distinguished, a project milestone planning and scheduling model with human-property-cooperation is constructed, project construction progress planning and scheduling are supported, the problem of newly-opened project milestone planning and scheduling is effectively solved, and resource arrangement such as advance project investment arrangement, scientific overall investment, construction and material arrangement is realized, and is shown in fig. 3 and 4.
The key milestone node scheduling mainly comprises a project layer, a single project layer and a material chain layer. After investigation, firstly, combing each level to relate to a key milestone node; secondly, clearing the sequence and the influence time sequence between each level of nodes; and then reasonably planning the reverse-ranking or forward-ranking project milestones based on project, single project and milestone stage construction period rules, material purchasing batches and the like. Assuming that the expected project production time is known according to the power grid planning requirement, it can be determined that the milestone nodes are to be inverted, and in addition, the equipment purchasing key nodes take centralized purchasing as an example, and the specific scheduling steps are as follows:
1) project layer construction period prediction: according to the predicted production time, combining with a construction period rule, and arranging a project milestone plan;
assuming that the predicted commissioning time is known, the project layer commissioning and commissioning milestone, monomer layer civil engineering, equipment installation, equipment debugging and other key milestone stage construction period parameters corresponding to the characteristic of the project are known, and the predicted commissioning time calculation formula of the project is as follows:
the project estimated start time is the estimated production time of the project-the project type period.
2) Prediction of the construction period of a main monomer layer: according to the milestone node construction period rule, inverting the planning start time and the planning end time of the key milestone node;
the main monomer project types included in the power grid infrastructure project of 110 kilovolt or more comprise a power transformation project, an overhead line project and a cable line project, and key milestone stages according to different monomer project types are adopted, wherein the construction milestone nodes of the power transformation project comprise civil construction, equipment installation and equipment debugging; the construction milestone node of the overhead line engineering comprises foundation construction, tower building construction and stringing construction; the construction milestone nodes of the cable line engineering comprise cable channels, cable laying and cable debugging, the average construction period of different milestone stages is combined, and the planned starting time and the planned ending time of the key milestone nodes of the project are predicted through forward arrangement and backward arrangement.
Taking the power transformation project as an example, the planned starting time and the planned ending time of the key milestone nodes of the power transformation project are predicted. Assuming that the expected production time is known, the prediction is carried out according to the reverse order, and the specific idea is as follows:
the equipment debugging plan end time is the predicted production time of the project, namely 30 days;
the starting time of the equipment debugging plan is equal to the ending time of the equipment debugging plan and the average construction period of the equipment debugging stage;
the equipment installation plan ending time is the equipment debugging plan starting time-the process connection time interval between the equipment installation ending and the equipment debugging starting;
the starting time of the equipment installation plan is equal to the ending time of the equipment installation plan and the average construction period of the equipment installation stage;
the civil engineering construction plan ending time is equal to the equipment installation plan starting time-the process connection time interval between the civil engineering stage ending and the equipment installation starting;
and (4) the civil construction plan starting time is the civil construction plan ending time and the civil construction stage average construction period.
3) Predicting key nodes of the material chain:
the arrival time of the equipment is closely related to the installation stage of the equipment of the monomer project-power transformation project and the starting time of the tower assembling stage of the overhead line project, so the approach time of the equipment is obtained according to the milestone planning time of the installation/tower assembling stage;
the initial value of the approach time of the main equipment is the planned starting time of the equipment installation stage;
4) according to the material incoming time, combining with an ERP material reasonable supply period, and reversely pushing the material demand reporting time;
initial value of material demand reporting time, namely initial value of equipment approach time, and average reasonable supply period of materials
5) Matching the purchasing batch arrangement of national grid companies according to the reversely pushed material demand reporting time, determining the main material demand reporting time, namely searching the bidding batch of the national grid company closest to the main material demand reporting time according to the initial value of the material demand reporting time, and determining the latest time of the material demand reporting.
6) Determining bidding purchase, contract signing, material supply and equipment arrival time according to the determined material demand reporting time and by combining material production and transportation periods of different materials, wherein a specific calculation formula is as follows:
the material purchasing bidding completion time is the material demand reporting time plus the bidding purchasing time;
the bidding purchase time is planned to be declared for 30 days, the purchase is disclosed for 20 days and the bidding is calibrated for 15 days;
the material contract signing time is the material purchasing bidding completion time plus the contract signing time (30 days);
and (4) the corrected arrival time of the materials is the material contract signing time + the production period and the delivery period.
S3, constructing a newly-opened project construction progress prediction model
On the basis of determining the key milestone plan, considering the conditions of winter construction and the like, and developing project image progress prediction in the project construction stage, the specific prediction method comprises the following steps:
s31, the predicted value of the monthly construction progress of the project sections is monthly construction period/total project section construction period;
s32 monthly construction progress prediction value of milestone plan node
The construction method comprises the following steps that ∑ (construction progress of each subsection project month and construction cost weight of each subsection project), the milestone plan nodes of the power transformation project mainly comprise civil engineering, equipment installation and equipment debugging, and the milestone plan nodes of the circuit mainly comprise foundation construction, tower construction and stringing;
s33 forecasting monthly construction progress of single project
Sigma (construction progress of each milestone plan node month and milestone node cost weight); wherein, for projects needing to consider winter construction, no construction progress is assumed in 1-3 months. And designing a monthly construction progress prediction model according to the calculation logic.
S4, constructing a newly opened project investment completion prediction model, based on construction progress prediction, considering the conversion relation between the physical quantity and the value quantity, distinguishing four expenses (the four expenses refer to construction project expenses, installation project expenses, equipment purchase expenses and other expenses), and constructing the newly opened project investment completion prediction model, wherein the specific prediction logic is as follows:
s41, calculating the investment completion amount by adopting a completion percentage method for the construction project cost and the installation project cost, wherein the specific calculation formula is as follows:
building cost investment amount is calculated (building cost) approximately, building cost investment control coefficient is the predicted value of monthly construction progress in the civil engineering stage;
the investment amount of the installation cost is an approximate calculation (installation cost) and an installation cost investment control coefficient and a monthly construction progress predicted value in the installation stage;
and (3) adjusting the investment amount of the cost of the building as an approximate calculation (building cost) and the investment control coefficient of the cost of the adjusting as a monthly construction progress predicted value in the adjusting stage.
And S42, multiplying the equipment cost investment amount by the equipment cost investment control coefficient according to the approximate calculation (equipment cost), and predicting the equipment cost investment completion amount according to the time of the key material planning node in the milestone planning arrangement.
And S43, forecasting the investment completion amount of each detail cost between planned start and operation according to the monthly allocation or one-time accounting rules according to detail cost generation characteristics such as construction site expropriation and cleaning cost, project supervision cost and the like.
The construction model of the invention is verified by selecting a model for planning a first-year investment plan of a newly-opened project in a certain power transmission and transformation project, and the specific process is as follows:
the Anhui company selects a certain 110 kV power transmission and transformation project, and the basic information of the project is as follows: the project recovery approximate calculation is 4941 ten thousand yuan, the project planning start time is 11 months and 30 days in 2018, the planning commissioning time is 2020 and 1 month, the actual start time is 11 months and 30 days in 2018, the construction progress of the current transformer project is 60%, and the construction progress of the line project is 0%.
The newly opened project annual investment planning model verification is carried out on main single projects (new substation projects and line projects) according to the planned start time of the power transmission and transformation project, and the measurement and calculation results are as follows:
and calculating the annual investment plan of the project in 2019 to be 590 ten thousand yuan. The income cost from the ERP system to the end of 2018 is 744 ten thousand yuan, and the income cost from 3 months in 2019 is 932 ten thousand yuan as the return investment number in consideration of the hysteresis of cost income settlement. The difference of 342 ten thousand yuan with the investment plan prediction number 590 ten thousand yuan accounts for 7 percent of the approximate calculation (4921 ten thousand yuan), is less than 10 percent, and is within an acceptable range, so that the model constructed by the method has certain feasibility.
Example 2:
the invention also provides a new power grid infrastructure project annual investment planning model construction system, which comprises:
the investment control coefficient calculation module is used for determining an investment control coefficient and the total investment of a project plan, and because available basis only has the exploitable estimation (initial setting approximate calculation) when a new project annual investment plan is compiled, the investment control coefficient is set in order to reduce the deviation between the exploitable estimation (initial setting approximate calculation) and the actually required investment and consider the balance rate condition;
the project milestone plan scheduling model construction module is used for predicting project layer start-up milestone plans according to project start-up or production time, predicting key milestone nodes of main monomers, meanwhile, considering the policy influence of 'putting in charge and taking care of', distinguishing 2 modes of different centralized purchasing and agreement inventory to predict key nodes of material chains, and finally obtaining project milestone plan scheduling models under the modes of the centralized purchasing and the agreement inventory;
the newly-opened project construction progress construction module is used for constructing a newly-opened project construction progress prediction model;
and the newly-opened project annual investment plan compiling model module is used for establishing a conversion relation between the quantity of the construction substance and the value quantity based on project milestone plan arrangement, engineering construction progress and project investment, establishing a newly-opened project investment completion prediction model, reasonably measuring and calculating a predicted newly-opened project annual investment plan and providing a pre-arranged project annual investment plan suggestion.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention and not for limiting the same, and although the present invention is described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those of ordinary skill in the art should understand that: modifications and equivalents may be made to the embodiments of the invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, which is to be covered by the claims.
Claims (7)
1. A newly opened power grid capital construction project annual planning model construction method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining an investment control coefficient and a total investment of a project plan;
constructing a project milestone plan scheduling model;
constructing a newly-opened project construction progress prediction model;
and establishing a conversion relation between the construction physical quantity and the value quantity based on the project milestone plan, the project construction progress and the project investment, and establishing a newly-opened project investment completion prediction model.
2. The method for constructing the annual planning model of the newly-opened power grid infrastructure project according to claim 1, wherein the specific modes for determining the investment control coefficient and the total investment of the project plan are as follows:
the investment control coefficient is 1-balance rate; wherein, the balance rate is (estimated/estimated-decision number)/estimated;
total planned investment-an estimable estimate-investment control factor.
3. The method for constructing the annual planning model of the newly-opened power grid infrastructure project according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the specific process for constructing the project milestone planning and scheduling model is as follows:
1) determining a model construction period parameter;
2) the method is characterized in that two modes of different centralized purchasing and agreement inventory are distinguished to predict key nodes of a material chain, and a project milestone planning and scheduling model of human and property cooperation is constructed, and the specific process is as follows:
① project layer construction period prediction, namely, according to the predicted production time, combining the construction period rule, arranging a project starting milestone plan upside down, supposing that the predicted production time is known, and knowing the project layer starting milestone, single layer civil engineering, equipment installation, equipment debugging and other key milestone stage construction period parameters corresponding to the characteristic of the project, the predicted production time calculation formula of the project is the predicted production time of the project-the type construction period of the project;
② predicting the construction period of the main monomer layer, namely, inverting the planned start time and the planned end time of the key milestone nodes according to the construction period rule of the milestone nodes;
③ predicting key nodes of the material chain, and obtaining the approach time of the equipment according to the milestone planning time of the installation/tower-assembling stage, wherein the initial value of the approach time of the main equipment is the planning starting time of the installation stage of the equipment;
④ according to the material entering time, combining with ERP material reasonable supply period, reverse pushing the material demand reporting time:
the initial value of the material demand reporting time is equal to the initial value of the equipment approach time, namely the average reasonable supply period of the materials;
⑤ determining the main material demand reporting time according to the reverse pushed material demand reporting time;
⑥ determining tender purchasing, contract signing, material supplying and equipment arrival time according to the determined material demand reporting time and in combination with material production and transportation periods of different materials.
4. The method for constructing the annual planning model of the newly-opened power grid infrastructure project according to claim 3, wherein the specific processes of predicting the planned start time and the planned end time of the key milestone node of the power transformation project are carried out according to the reverse order on the assumption that the predicted production time is known:
the equipment debugging plan end time is the predicted production time of the project, namely 30 days;
the starting time of the equipment debugging plan is equal to the ending time of the equipment debugging plan and the average construction period of the equipment debugging stage;
the equipment installation plan ending time is the equipment debugging plan starting time-the process connection time interval between the equipment installation ending and the equipment debugging starting;
the starting time of the equipment installation plan is equal to the ending time of the equipment installation plan and the average construction period of the equipment installation stage;
the civil engineering construction plan ending time is equal to the equipment installation plan starting time-the process connection time interval between the civil engineering stage ending and the equipment installation starting;
and (4) the civil construction plan starting time is the civil construction plan ending time and the civil construction stage average construction period.
5. The newly-opened power grid infrastructure project annual planning model construction method according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized in that the concrete contents of the newly-opened project construction progress prediction model construction are as follows:
the predicted value of the construction progress of the project sections monthly is monthly construction period/total project construction period;
the monthly construction progress predicted value of the milestone plan node is sigma (the monthly construction progress of each subsection project and the construction cost weight of each subsection project), the power transformation project milestone plan node mainly comprises civil engineering, equipment installation and equipment debugging, and the line milestone plan node mainly comprises foundation construction, tower building and stringing;
the monthly construction progress predicted value of the single project is sigma (the monthly construction progress of each milestone plan node is the milestone node construction cost weight); wherein, for projects needing to consider winter construction, no construction progress is assumed in 1-3 months.
6. The newly opened power grid infrastructure project annual planning model construction method according to any one of claims 1 to 4, characterized by establishing a conversion relation between construction physical quantity and value quantity and constructing a newly opened project investment completion prediction model based on project milestone planning arrangement, project construction progress and project investment, and comprising the specific processes of:
(1) the construction project cost and the installation project cost are calculated by adopting a completion percentage method to calculate the investment completion amount, and a specific calculation formula is as follows:
building cost investment amount is calculated (building cost) approximately, building cost investment control coefficient is the predicted value of monthly construction progress in the civil engineering stage;
the investment amount of the installation cost is an approximate calculation (installation cost) and an installation cost investment control coefficient and a monthly construction progress predicted value in the installation stage;
the investment amount of the debugging cost is an approximate calculation (building cost) and investment control coefficient of the debugging cost is a monthly construction progress predicted value in a debugging stage;
(2) multiplying the equipment cost investment amount by an equipment cost investment control coefficient according to an approximate calculation, and predicting the equipment cost investment completion amount according to the time of a key material plan node in the milestone plan arrangement;
(3) other fees are used between planned start-up and production to forecast the completion amount of each detail cost investment according to monthly allocation or one-time accounting rules.
7. A newly opened power grid capital construction project annual planning model construction system is characterized by comprising the following components:
the investment control coefficient calculation module is used for determining an investment control coefficient and the total investment of the project plan;
the project milestone plan scheduling model building module is used for building a project milestone plan scheduling model;
the newly-opened project construction progress construction module is used for constructing a newly-opened project construction progress prediction model;
the newly opened project investment completion prediction model is used for establishing a conversion relation between the physical quantity and the value quantity of construction based on project milestone planning arrangement, engineering construction progress and project investment, and establishing the newly opened project investment completion prediction model.
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