JP2016170594A - Demand prediction device, demand prediction method, demand prediction program and demand management system - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a demand prediction device capable of predicting a hydrogen demand at a hydrogen station, a demand prediction method, a demand prediction program and a demand management system.SOLUTION: The demand prediction device of an embodiment includes an information acquisition section, a fuel residual amount estimation section, a fuel supply determination section and a hydrogen demand estimation section. The fuel supply determination section calculates, for each combination of a hydrogen station installed in a prediction object area and a fuel cell automobile, the probability of supplying fuel to the fuel cell automobile at the hydrogen station and an amount of fuel to be supplied on the basis of a residual fuel amount held by the fuel cell automobile and a distance to the hydrogen station. The hydrogen demand estimation section calculates, for each hydrogen station, the number of fuel cell automobiles visiting the hydrogen station to supply fuel and an expected value of an amount of fuel to be supplied on the basis of the probability and the fuel amount calculated by the fuel supply determination section and outputs the number of fuel cell automobiles and the expected value of fuel amount calculated as control information to control facilities at the hydrogen station.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

  Embodiments described herein relate generally to a demand prediction apparatus, a demand prediction method, a demand prediction program, and a demand management system.

  Refueling of automobiles equipped with an internal combustion engine that uses gasoline or light oil as fuel is performed at a gas station. In recent years, as electric vehicles (EV) using secondary batteries have been released, chargers for charging electricity to electric vehicles are becoming widespread. On the other hand, along with the development of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) by automobile manufacturers, demonstration experiments of hydrogen stations for refueling fuel cell vehicles are being conducted in various places. In the hydrogen station, hydrogen is fed into the fuel cell vehicle using the pressure difference between the pressure in the pressure accumulator provided in the hydrogen station and the pressure in the fuel tank of the fuel cell vehicle. Therefore, whether it is an on-site type or an off-site type hydrogen station, a compressor that compresses hydrogen, a pressure accumulator that stores compressed hydrogen, and a dispenser that fills a fuel cell vehicle with hydrogen Is provided.

  In the hydrogen station, as described above, in order to fill the fuel cell vehicle with hydrogen, it is necessary to store the hydrogen whose pressure has been increased using the compressor in the accumulator. The pressure of hydrogen stored in the pressure accumulator is, for example, 35 MPa or 70 MPa. When the fuel cell vehicle is filled with hydrogen, the amount of hydrogen in the pressure accumulator decreases, so the pressure in the pressure accumulator decreases. Therefore, in preparation for the next filling, it is necessary to fill the accumulator with hydrogen by the compressor and increase the pressure in the accumulator. Since it takes time to fill the hydrogen and pressurize the pressure accumulator, once the hydrogen is filled, a waiting time occurs until the next hydrogen is filled. Therefore, it is conceivable to reduce the waiting time by providing a plurality of pressure accumulators in the hydrogen station. However, since the number of pressure accumulators is limited from the viewpoint of the area and cost of the construction site of the hydrogen station, it is necessary to predict the hydrogen demand in order to determine the appropriate number of pressure accumulators to be installed in the hydrogen station. There is a case.

Special table 2013-508645 gazette

"Hydrogen Station", [online], JX Nippon Oil & Energy Corporation, [March 2, 2015 search], Internet <URL: http://www.noe.jx-group.co.jp/company/ rd / h_station / move.html>

  The problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a demand forecasting device, a demand forecasting method, a demand forecasting program, and a demand management system capable of forecasting the demand for hydrogen in a hydrogen station.

  The demand prediction device of the embodiment includes an information acquisition unit, a fuel remaining amount estimation unit, a fuel supply determination unit, and a hydrogen demand estimation unit. The information acquisition unit acquires information related to the movement of the fuel cell vehicle in a predetermined prediction target region. The remaining fuel amount estimation unit estimates the remaining fuel amount that decreases with movement for each fuel cell vehicle. For each combination of a hydrogen station and a fuel cell vehicle provided in the prediction target area, the fuel replenishment determination unit performs fuel at the hydrogen station based on the remaining amount of fuel held by the fuel cell vehicle and the distance to the hydrogen station. The probability that the battery car supplies fuel and the amount of fuel to be supplied are calculated. The hydrogen demand estimation unit calculates, based on the probability calculated by the fuel replenishment determination unit and the fuel amount, the number of fuel cell vehicles visiting the fuel replenishment and the expected value of the fuel amount to be replenished for each hydrogen station. The expected number of units and the amount of fuel are output as control information for controlling equipment in the hydrogen station.

The figure which shows the outline | summary of the demand management system containing the demand prediction apparatus in 1st Embodiment. The block diagram which shows the structural example of a demand prediction apparatus. The flowchart which shows the demand prediction process which a demand prediction apparatus performs. The flowchart which shows the other demand prediction process which a demand prediction apparatus performs. The figure which shows the outline | summary of the demand management system containing the demand prediction apparatus in 2nd Embodiment. The flowchart which shows the demand prediction process which a demand prediction apparatus performs.

  Hereinafter, a demand prediction device, a demand prediction method, a demand prediction program, and a demand management system according to embodiments will be described with reference to the drawings. In the following embodiments, the same reference numerals are assigned to the same operations, and duplicate descriptions are omitted as appropriate.

(First embodiment)
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an overview of a demand management system including a demand prediction apparatus according to the first embodiment. As shown in the figure, the demand management system includes a demand prediction device 1, an energy management system 2, a hydrogen supply prediction system 3, and a hydrogen station 4. The demand prediction apparatus 1 acquires information on a vehicle traveling on a highway from the ETC central system 51, the ITS spot central system 52, and the traffic control system 53. The demand prediction device 1 predicts the demand for hydrogen (fuel) at each hydrogen station 4 provided in the service area or parking area of the expressway based on the acquired information. The predicted hydrogen demand is information including, for example, the number of fuel cell vehicles per unit time that are visited to supply hydrogen and the total amount of hydrogen supplied to the fuel cell vehicles. Hereinafter, the fuel cell vehicle is referred to as FCV.

  The information acquired from the ETC central system 51 by the demand prediction device 1 includes the number of FCVs flowing into the expressway, the time when each FCV entered, the number of FCVs flowing out from the expressway, The time when FCV flowed out is included. Note that the demand prediction device 1 may obtain from the ETC central system 51 the inflow and outflow of vehicles other than FCV, for example, vehicles including internal combustion engines, secondary battery powered vehicles, and the like, and their times. Good. Information acquired from the traffic control system 53 by the demand prediction device 1 includes the average speed, average traffic density, and traffic volume of vehicles including FCVs in each section of the highway. Information acquired by the demand prediction device 1 from the ITS spot central system 52 includes the fuel type and the movement history of each vehicle traveling on the highway. The movement history of the vehicle includes the position or identification information of the ITS spot with which the vehicle communicated and the time at which the communication was performed. When the information cannot be acquired from one or both of the ETC central system 51 and the traffic control system 53, the demand prediction apparatus 1 supplements the information using information acquired from the ITS spot central system 52.

  The demand prediction device 1 outputs the predicted demand for hydrogen to the energy management system 2. The energy management system 2 generates control information for satisfying the hydrogen demand for each hydrogen station 4 based on the hydrogen demand predicted by the demand prediction device 1. The energy management system 2 outputs the generated control information to each hydrogen station 4. Further, the energy management system 2 generates demand information indicating the amount of hydrogen to be supplied to each hydrogen station 4 based on the amount of hydrogen supplied to the fuel cell vehicle at each hydrogen station 4. The hydrogen supply prediction system 3 determines the amount of hydrogen to be supplied to each hydrogen station 4 based on the demand information, and transmits information for arranging supply to each hydrogen station 4 to a supplier supplying hydrogen.

  The hydrogen station 4 includes a hydrogen station control device 41, a hydrogen tank 42, a compressor 43, a pressure accumulator 44, and a dispenser 45. The hydrogen station control device 41 controls equipment such as the compressor 43 and the pressure accumulator 44 based on the control information output from the energy management system 2. Specifically, the hydrogen station control device 41 operates the compressor 43 based on the control information so that the fuel cell vehicle visiting for hydrogen supply can be sequentially charged with hydrogen. The compressor 43 compresses hydrogen stored in the hydrogen tank 42 or hydrogen supplied by a hydrogen pipeline or a hydrogen trailer, and fills the pressure accumulator 44 with the increased pressure. The accumulator 44 maintains the pressure of the hydrogen charged by the compressor 43 and supplies hydrogen to the fuel cell vehicle via the dispenser 45. By supplying hydrogen to the fuel cell vehicle, the pressure in the pressure accumulator 44 decreases, so the hydrogen station control device 41 operates the compressor 43 again for the next supply to the fuel cell vehicle.

  FIG. 2 is a block diagram illustrating a configuration example of the demand prediction apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment. As shown in the figure, the demand prediction apparatus 1 includes an FCV information storage unit 101, a fuel consumption table storage unit 102, a section length table storage unit 103, a fuel supply determination table storage unit 104, a hydrogen station information storage unit 105, an FCV inflow / outflow. An amount acquisition unit 111, an FCV position estimation unit 112, an FCV fuel remaining amount estimation unit 113, an FCV fuel supply determination unit 114, and a hydrogen demand estimation unit 115 are provided.

  The FCV information storage unit 101 stores information regarding FCVs located on the expressway. The FCV information storage unit 101 stores a table having items of ID (Identification: identification information), current estimated position, previous estimated position, estimated fuel remaining amount, estimated execution time, and fuel supply prediction. In the table stored in the FCV information storage unit 101, there is a record having the value of each item for each FCV. Information for uniquely identifying the FCV is assigned to the item of ID. The information assigned to the ID may be information used to identify the vehicle in the ETC central system 51, or may be information that can uniquely identify the FCV that is the management target in the demand prediction device 1. Good.

  Information indicating the estimated position of the FCV at a certain time is assigned to the item of the current estimated position. Information indicating the previous position where the FCV is estimated is assigned to the item of the previous estimated position. As the information indicating the position, for example, a distance from a reference position on an expressway, or a combination of latitude and longitude is used. An estimated value of the remaining amount of fuel held by the FCV at a certain time is assigned to the estimated remaining fuel amount item. The time at which the current estimated position and the estimated remaining fuel amount are estimated is assigned to the estimated execution time item. The probability of refueling for each hydrogen station 4 provided on the expressway and the amount of fuel to be replenished are assigned to the item of fuel replenishment prediction. That is, a probability and fuel amount corresponding to the number of installed hydrogen stations 4 provided on the expressway are assigned to the item of refueling prediction.

  The fuel consumption table storage unit 102 stores in advance a table in which a fuel consumption amount is associated with a combination of the FCV travel distance and the average speed at the travel distance. The section length table storage unit 103 stores a table in which distances of a plurality of sections obtained by dividing an expressway and an average speed in the section are associated with information for identifying the section. Note that a combination of the latitude and longitude of the start point and the end point may be used as the information indicating the section. Each section when dividing the expressway may be a section based on the position of the interchange, a section based on the position of the hydrogen station 4, or a section based on other conditions. May be.

  The fuel supply determination table storage unit 104 stores in advance a table in which the probability of fuel supply at the hydrogen station 4 is associated with the remaining fuel amount of FCV. It should be noted that the probability of fuel replenishment may be associated with each section obtained by dividing the range of values that the remaining fuel amount of FCV can take into a plurality of sections. The probability in the table stored in the fuel supply determination table storage unit 104 indicates how much the remaining amount of fuel is to be supplied by the driver, based on a statistical method or a survey such as a questionnaire. Probability is used.

  The hydrogen station information storage unit 105 stores in advance a table in which positions indicating the positions of the hydrogen stations 4 provided on the expressway are associated with the identification information of the hydrogen stations 4.

  The FCV inflow / outflow acquisition unit 111 acquires information on the FCV flowing into the expressway from the ETC central system 51 for each interchange. Further, the FCV inflow / outflow acquisition unit 111 acquires information on the FCV flowing out from the expressway from the ETC central system 51 for each interchange. The information regarding the FCV that flows into the expressway includes the number of FCVs that flowed in, the identification information of each FCV, and the time when each FCV entered the expressway. Further, the information regarding the FCV flowing out from the expressway includes the number of FCVs that flowed in, the identification information of each FCV, and the time when each FCV flowed out from the expressway.

  The FCV inflow / outflow acquisition unit 111 causes the FCV information storage unit 101 to store information on the FCV that has flowed into the expressway for each FCV. Specifically, the FCV inflow / outflow acquisition unit 111 determines an ID, a previous estimated position, an estimated remaining fuel amount, and an estimated execution time for each FCV that has flowed into the highway, and stores the ID in the FCV information storage unit 101. Information used to identify the vehicle in the ETC central system 51 included in the acquired information on the FCV or information that can uniquely identify the FCV is assigned to the ID. A position where the FCV has flowed into the expressway, for example, an interchange position, is assigned to the previous estimated position.

  The estimated remaining fuel amount is assigned the remaining fuel amount that is retained when the FCV flows into the expressway. When the remaining fuel amount can be acquired from the ETC central system 51 or the ITS spot central system 52, the acquired remaining fuel amount is assigned. When the FCV fuel remaining amount cannot be acquired, the fuel remaining amount calculated based on the predetermined initial fuel set value a and the initial fuel dispersion value b is assigned. The initial fuel set value a and the initial fuel dispersion value b are based on the average value of the remaining amount of fuel held by the fuel cell vehicle when flowing into the expressway and the variance with respect to the average value, which are obtained by research and the like. It is a predetermined value. For example, assuming that the remaining amount of fuel held when the FCV flows into the expressway follows a normal distribution, the value calculated using the initial fuel set value a, the initial fuel dispersion value b, and a random number is estimated. Assigned as the initial value of the remaining amount of fuel. Reflecting the fact that fuel is replenished before traveling on the highway, the fuel cell vehicle traveling on the general road holds more fuel than the remaining fuel. It may be assumed that the initial fuel set value a is determined.

  In addition, the FCV inflow / outflow acquisition unit 111 is a record corresponding to the outflow FCV among the FCV records included in the table stored in the FCV information storage unit 101 based on the information about the FCV outflow from the expressway. Is deleted. The FCV inflow / outflow acquisition unit 111 may add information indicating invalidity to the record without deleting the record corresponding to the outflow FCV.

  The FCV position estimation unit 112 acquires the average speed of each of a plurality of sections on the highway from the traffic control system 53. The FCV position estimation unit 112 stores the acquired average speed of each section in the section length table storage unit 103, and updates the average speed corresponding to each section in the table. The FCV position estimation unit 112 estimates the position of the FCV on the expressway for each FCV based on the average speed of each section and the information stored in the FCV information storage unit 101. The FCV position estimation unit 112 stores the estimated FCV position in the FCV information storage unit 101 as the current estimated position.

  Based on the information stored in the FCV information storage unit 101, the FCV fuel remaining amount estimation unit 113 estimates the fuel remaining amount of each FCV that decreases according to movement. Specifically, the FCV fuel remaining amount estimating unit 113 calculates the difference between the previous estimated position and the current estimated position stored in the FCV information storage unit 101, that is, the moving distance. The FCV fuel remaining amount estimating unit 113 reads the fuel consumption amount corresponding to the combination of the calculated moving distance and the average speed in the section where the FCV is located from the fuel consumption table storage unit 102. The FCV fuel remaining amount estimation unit 113 subtracts the read fuel consumption from the estimated fuel remaining amount stored in the FCV information storage unit 101 and stores the subtraction result in the FCV information storage unit 101 as a new estimated fuel remaining amount. Let The FCV fuel remaining amount estimating unit 113 updates the estimated fuel remaining amount for each FCV stored in the FCV information storage unit 101.

  The FCV refueling determination unit 114 determines each hydrogen station based on the information stored in the FCV information storage unit 101 and each table stored in the fuel supply determination table storage unit 104 and the hydrogen station information storage unit 105. 4, the probability of refueling and the amount of fuel to be refilled are calculated for each FCV. The FCV refueling determination unit 114 associates the calculated probability, the amount of fuel to be replenished, and the identification information of the hydrogen station 4 and stores them as FCV refueling predictions in the table stored in the FCV information storage unit 101.

  Based on the information stored in the FCV information storage unit 101, the hydrogen demand estimation unit 115 estimates the number of FCVs that visit the fuel supply and the total amount of fuel to be supplied for each hydrogen station 4. The hydrogen demand estimation unit 115 outputs information including the estimated number of FCVs and the total amount of fuel to the energy management system 2 as hydrogen demand.

  FIG. 3 is a flowchart illustrating a demand prediction process performed by the demand prediction apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment. The demand prediction process is periodically executed at a predetermined time interval. When the demand prediction process is started in the demand prediction device 1, each of the FCV inflow / outflow amount acquisition unit 111, the FCV position estimation unit 112, the FCV fuel remaining amount estimation unit 113, and the FCV fuel supply determination unit 114 is For each section, the processing from step S101 to step S108 described below is repeated.

  The FCV inflow / outflow acquisition unit 111 acquires information about FCVs flowing in and out in the interchange existing in the processing target section from the ETC central system 51. Based on the acquired information, the FCV inflow / outflow acquisition unit 111 stores information on the FCV that has flowed into the highway in the FCV information storage unit 101 and deletes information on the FCV that has flowed out of the highway from the FCV information storage unit 101 (Step S101).

  At this time, the value that the FCV inflow / outflow acquisition unit 111 stores in the FCV information storage unit 101 as the estimated fuel remaining amount can acquire the fuel remaining amount held by the inflowing FCV from the ETC central system 51 or the ITS spot central system 52. In this case, the acquired fuel remaining amount is used, and when the remaining fuel amount held by the inflowing FCV cannot be acquired, the value calculated using the initial fuel set value a and the initial fuel dispersion value b is used. It is done. In addition, as the time when the FCV inflow / outflow acquisition unit 111 stores the estimated execution time in the FCV information storage unit 101, the time when each FCV entered the expressway may be used, or the previous demand prediction process may be performed. A time calculated by assuming that each FCV has flowed in at equal intervals in a period from the broken time to the current time may be used. Further, the position of the interchange at which each FCV flows into the highway is used as the position that the FCV inflow / outflow amount acquisition unit 111 stores in the FCV information storage unit 101 as the previous estimated position.

  The FCV position estimation unit 112 acquires an average speed in the section to be processed from the traffic control system 53. Based on the table stored in the section length table storage unit 103, the FCV position estimation unit 112 includes the FCV information stored in the FCV information storage unit 101 including the previous estimated position in the section to be processed. FCV information is extracted. The FCV position estimation unit 112 calculates the FCV moving distance from the time difference from the estimated execution time to the current time and the average speed for each extracted FCV information (step S102).

  At this time, the FCV position estimating unit 112 may calculate an estimated value of the moving speed in the section to be processed for each FCV based on the acquired average speed and a predetermined moving speed variance c. In this case, the FCV moving distance is calculated from the estimated moving speed and the time difference. The estimated value of the moving speed is calculated using the average speed, the moving speed variance c, and a random number, assuming that the moving speed follows a normal distribution.

  The FCV position estimation unit 112 calculates the current estimated position for each FCV by adding the calculated movement distance and the previous estimated position. The FCV position estimation unit 112 stores the calculated current estimated position of each FCV in the FCV information storage unit 101, and updates the position of each FCV in the target section (step S103). Further, the FCV position estimating unit 112 reads the fuel consumption corresponding to the combination of the calculated moving distance and the average speed from the fuel consumption table storage unit 102, and subtracts the read fuel consumption from the estimated remaining fuel amount. The FCV position estimation unit 112 stores the subtraction result in the FCV information storage unit 101 as the FCV estimated fuel remaining amount at the current estimated position (step S104).

  At this time, when the FCV position estimation unit 112 stores the current estimated position in the FCV information storage unit 101, the FCV information storage unit 101 stores the current time as the estimated execution time.

  The FCV fuel supply determination unit 114 extracts FCV information whose current estimated position is included in the section to be processed from the FCV information stored in the FCV information storage unit 101. Based on the extracted FCV information, the FCV refueling determination unit 114 calculates the distance to each of the hydrogen stations 4 positioned ahead of the current estimated position of the FCV in the FCV traveling direction. The FCV refueling determination unit 114 reads the fuel consumption corresponding to the combination of the calculated distance and the average speed in the target section from the fuel consumption table storage unit 102, and the FCV currently at the estimated position reaches each hydrogen station 4. The amount of fuel consumed is estimated (step S105).

  The FCV refueling determination unit 114 calculates the fuel remaining amount when each FCV located in the section to be processed reaches each hydrogen station 4 in the traveling direction, the fuel amount estimated in step S105, and the FCV estimated fuel remaining amount. Is subtracted from (step S106).

  The FCV refueling determination unit 114 reads, from the refueling determination table storage unit 104, the probability associated with the remaining fuel amount when reaching each hydrogen station 4 for each FCV located in the processing target section. The probability of refueling at each hydrogen station 4 is calculated. The FCV refueling determination unit 114 uses the calculated probability of refueling in each hydrogen station 4 and the amount of fuel replenished in the hydrogen station 4 for each FCV located in the processing target section as FCV information. It memorize | stores in the memory | storage part 101 (step S107). The amount of fuel to be supplied to the FCV at the hydrogen station 4 is obtained as a subtraction result obtained by subtracting the remaining amount of fuel from a predetermined fuel tank capacity.

  The FCV refueling determination unit 114 calculates the expected value of the number of FCVs to visit to supply fuel to each hydrogen station 4 and the expected amount of fuel to be replenished by the visiting FCV from the probability and fuel amount calculated as the fuel replenishment prediction in step S107. Value. The FCV fuel supply determination unit 114 outputs the number of FCVs calculated for each hydrogen station 4 and the expected value of the fuel amount to the hydrogen demand estimation unit 115 (step S108).

  Each process from step S101 to step S108 is repeatedly performed for each section of the expressway. When the processing from step S101 to step S108 for all the sections is completed, the hydrogen demand estimation unit 115 supplies the expected value of the number of FCVs to be refueled in each hydrogen station 4 and the FCV calculated for each section. From the expected value of the fuel amount, the number of FCVs that come to refuel and the expected value of the total amount of fuel required for refueling are calculated for each hydrogen station 4. The hydrogen demand estimation unit 115 outputs the calculated number of FCVs to be refueled at each hydrogen station 4 and the total amount of fuel to the energy management system 2 as predicted hydrogen demand (step S109).

  At this time, the hydrogen demand estimation unit 115 deletes the value of the current estimated position after updating the value of the previous estimated position of each FCV stored in the FCV information storage unit 101 with the value of the current estimated position. Note that the FCV inflow / outflow amount acquisition unit 111 may perform the update of the previous estimated value of FCV and the deletion of the current estimated position immediately after the demand prediction process is started.

  FIG. 4 is a flowchart illustrating another demand prediction process performed by the demand prediction apparatus 1 according to the first embodiment. The demand prediction process shown in FIG. 4 is configured to repeat the process for each FCV, whereas the demand prediction process shown in FIG. 3 repeats the process for each section of the expressway. The demand prediction process shown in FIG. 4 is also periodically executed at predetermined time intervals, similarly to the demand prediction process shown in FIG.

  When the demand prediction process is started in the demand prediction apparatus 1, the FCV inflow / outflow acquisition unit 111 acquires information on the FCV flowing in and out at each interchange of the expressway from the ETC central system 51. Based on the acquired information, the FCV inflow / outflow acquisition unit 111 stores information on all FCVs flowing into the highway in the FCV information storage unit 101, and stores information on all FCVs flowing out from the highway in the FCV information storage It deletes from the part 101 (step S201). The information stored in the FCV information storage unit 101 by the FCV inflow / outflow acquisition unit 111 is the same as the information stored in step S101 of the demand prediction process shown in FIG.

  The FCV position estimation unit 112 acquires an average speed in each section of the highway from the traffic control system 53. The FCV position estimation unit 112 stores the acquired average speed of each section in the section length table storage unit 103 (step S202).

  When the information on the FCV located on the expressway and the average speed of each section of the expressway are acquired, the FCV position estimation unit 112, the FCV fuel remaining amount estimation unit 113, and the FCV fuel supply determination unit 114 Each process from step S203 to step S207 to be described is repeated for each FCV.

  The FCV position estimation unit 112 reads FCV information that has not been subjected to each processing from step S203 to step S207 out of the FCV information stored in the FCV information storage unit 101, and the previous estimated position of the read information Is read from the section length table storage unit 103. The FCV position estimating unit 112 calculates the moving distance of the FCV from the time difference from the estimated execution time of the read information to the current time and the read average speed. The FCV position estimation unit 112 stores the addition result of the previous estimated position and the moving distance in the FCV information storage unit 101 as the current estimated position, and updates the FCV position (step S203).

  At this time, the FCV position estimation unit 112 calculates the movement distance using the estimated value of the moving speed that is different for each FCV using the moving speed variance c, similarly to step S102 of the demand prediction process shown in FIG. May be.

  The FCV position estimation unit 112 reads the fuel consumption corresponding to the calculated combination of the travel distance and the average speed from the fuel consumption table storage unit 102, and subtracts the read fuel consumption from the estimated remaining fuel amount. The FCV position estimation unit 112 stores the subtraction result in the FCV information storage unit 101 as the estimated fuel remaining amount of FCV at the current estimated position (step S204).

  At this time, when the FCV position estimation unit 112 stores the current estimated position in the FCV information storage unit 101, the FCV information storage unit 101 stores the current time as the estimated execution time.

  The FCV refueling determination unit 114 detects, from the hydrogen station information storage unit 105, the hydrogen station 4 positioned ahead of the current estimated position in the FCV traveling direction in which the estimated fuel remaining amount is calculated in step S204. The FCV refueling determination unit 114 calculates the distance to each detected hydrogen station 4. The FCV refueling determination unit 114 reads the fuel consumption corresponding to the combination of the average speed in the section between the current estimated position and the hydrogen station 4 and the calculated distance from the fuel consumption table storage unit 102, and sets the current estimated position as the current estimated position. The amount of fuel consumed by the existing FCV until reaching the hydrogen station 4 is calculated (step S205).

  The FCV refueling determination unit 114 calculates, for each hydrogen station 4, the remaining fuel amount when the FCV reaches the hydrogen station 4 by subtracting the fuel consumption calculated in step S205 from the estimated fuel remaining amount of the FCV. (Step S206).

  The FCV fuel supply determination unit 114 reads, for each hydrogen station 4, the probability associated with the remaining amount of fuel when the FCV reaches the hydrogen station from the fuel supply determination table storage unit 104, so that the FCV In 4, the probability of refueling is calculated. The FCV fuel replenishment determination unit 114 stores the calculated probability of refueling at each hydrogen station 4 and the amount of fuel replenished at the hydrogen station 4 in the FCV information storage unit 101 as fuel replenishment prediction (step S207).

  When each process from step S203 to step S207 is completed for all FCV information stored in the FCV information storage unit 101, the hydrogen demand estimation unit 115 is based on the fuel supply prediction calculated for each FCV. Thus, the expected value of the number of FCVs to be refueled at the hydrogen station 4 and the expected value of the total amount of fuel required for refueling are calculated for each hydrogen station 4. The hydrogen demand estimation unit 115 outputs the calculated number of FCVs to be refueled at each hydrogen station 4 and the total amount of fuel to the energy management system 2 as predicted hydrogen demand (step S208).

  At this time, the hydrogen demand estimation unit 115 deletes the value of the current estimated position after updating the value of the previous estimated position of each FCV stored in the FCV information storage unit 101 with the value of the current estimated position. Note that the FCV inflow / outflow acquisition unit 111 may update the FCV previous estimated value and delete the current estimated position before performing the process of step S101.

  According to the demand prediction apparatus 1 of the first embodiment, each fuel cell vehicle located in the prediction target area including the highway and the hydrogen station 4 provided on the highway is supplied to the hydrogen station 4 for fuel (hydrogen) supply. Based on the probability of visiting, the demand for hydrogen at each hydrogen station 4 can be predicted. Based on this demand, it becomes possible to guide the fuel cell vehicle to refuel with other hydrogen stations 4 avoiding the hydrogen stations 4 that are expected to be congested, and operate the hydrogen stations 4 efficiently. Will be able to.

  Further, according to the demand prediction device 1, the FCV inflow / outflow acquisition unit 111 estimates the remaining amount of fuel held when the fuel cell vehicle flows into the expressway, so that each fuel cell vehicle holds Since the demand for hydrogen at each hydrogen station 4 is predicted without acquiring the remaining amount of fuel, the demand for hydrogen can be predicted using an existing transportation system used for toll collection.

(Second Embodiment)
FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an overview of a demand management system including the demand prediction device 1A according to the second embodiment. The configuration of the hydrogen station in the second embodiment is the same as the configuration of the hydrogen station 4 shown in FIG. 1, and only the hydrogen station controller 41 is shown in FIG. The demand management system according to the second embodiment includes a demand prediction device 1A, an energy management system 2, a hydrogen supply prediction system 3, and a hydrogen station 4.

  The demand prediction apparatus 1A acquires information on the position and movement of the FCV obtained from a satellite positioning system such as GPS from another system. The information regarding the position and movement of the FCV to be acquired includes the position, movement speed, and movement direction of the FCV. Note that the information regarding the position and movement of the FCV may be information obtained using a system other than the satellite positioning system, for example, an ITS spot central system. The demand prediction device 1A predicts the demand for hydrogen at each hydrogen station 4 provided in a predetermined prediction target area based on the acquired information. The predicted demand for hydrogen is the same as the demand for hydrogen in the first embodiment: the number of fuel cell vehicles per unit time visited to replenish hydrogen and the total amount of hydrogen replenished to the fuel cell vehicles. It is information to include. Here, the prediction target area is an area that includes each circle determined by a predetermined radius around each hydrogen station 4 to be estimated for hydrogen demand. The predetermined radius is a distance determined on the basis of the FCV movable distance calculated from the average capacity of the FCV fuel tank.

  As shown in FIG. 5, the demand prediction apparatus 1A includes an FCV information storage unit 121, a fuel consumption table storage unit 102, a fuel supply determination table storage unit 104, a hydrogen station information storage unit 105, an FCV information acquisition unit 131, and an FCV movement estimation unit. 132, an FCV fuel remaining amount estimating unit 133, an FCV fuel replenishment determining unit 114, and a hydrogen demand estimating unit 115. In addition, in 1 A of demand prediction apparatuses, the same code | symbol is attached | subjected to the same structure as the structure with which the demand prediction apparatus 1 of 1st Embodiment is provided, and the overlapping description is abbreviate | omitted.

  The FCV information storage unit 121 stores information regarding the FCV located in the prediction target area. The FCV information storage unit 121 stores a table having items of ID, current position, moving speed, moving direction, moving distance, estimated fuel remaining amount, and fuel supply prediction. In the table stored in the FCV information storage unit 121, there is a record having the value of each item for each FCV.

  Information for uniquely identifying the FCV is assigned to the item of ID. The current position of the FCV obtained from another system is assigned to the item of current position. As the current position, for example, information combining latitude, longitude, and altitude is used. The moving speed item is assigned a speed at which the FCV moves. The direction in which the FCV is moving is assigned to the item of movement direction. The moving direction is represented by an orientation such as east, west, south, and north. The moving direction may be the direction of the moving speed, or the direction from the current position to the destination when the FCV destination is known. The distance that the FCV moves in a predetermined period is assigned to the item of movement distance.

  An estimated value of the remaining amount of fuel held by the FCV is assigned to the item of estimated fuel remaining amount. Note that when the fuel remaining amount held by the FCV is included in the information regarding the position and movement of the FCV, the acquired fuel remaining amount is used as the estimated fuel remaining amount. When the fuel remaining amount held by the FCV cannot be acquired, the initial fuel set value a, the initial fuel dispersion value b, and the random number are obtained in the same manner as the estimation of the initial value of the estimated fuel remaining amount in the first embodiment. The calculated value is used as the estimated remaining fuel amount. The probability of refueling for each hydrogen station 4 that is the target of hydrogen demand estimation and the amount of fuel to be replenished are assigned to the item of fuel replenishment prediction. In other words, the probability and fuel amount corresponding to the number of installed hydrogen stations 4 to be estimated for hydrogen demand are assigned to the item of fuel supply prediction.

  The FCV information acquisition unit 131 acquires FCV information related to the position and movement of the FCV from an external or higher-order other system. Based on the acquired FCV information, the FCV information acquisition unit 131 registers information about the FCV that has flowed into the prediction target area, updates information about the FCV that is continuously located in the prediction target area, and flows out of the prediction target area. The deletion of the FCV information is performed on the FCV information storage unit 121. In registering information regarding FCV, the FCV information acquisition unit 131 determines an ID, a current position, a moving speed, a moving direction, and an estimated remaining fuel amount for each FCV that has flowed in, and stores them in the FCV information storage unit 121. In updating the information regarding the FCV, the FCV information acquisition unit 131 updates the current position, the moving speed, and the moving direction stored in the FCV information storage unit 121 for each FCV continuously located in the prediction target area. . The FCV information acquisition unit 131 also updates the estimated fuel remaining amount stored in the FCV information storage unit 121 for the FCV that can acquire the fuel remaining amount held in the FCV.

  The FCV movement estimation unit 132 calculates a movement distance in a predetermined period for each FCV located in the prediction target area based on information stored in the FCV information storage unit 121. At this time, the FCV movement estimation unit 132 may vary the FCV movement speed based on the movement speed stored in the FCV information storage unit 121 and the predetermined movement speed variance c. Further, the FCV movement estimation unit 132 may acquire the moving speed of the vehicle obtained by a traffic simulation performed using a known technique, and calculate the moving distance in a predetermined period using the acquired moving speed. The FCV movement estimation unit 132 stores the calculated movement distance of each FCV as the movement distance of each FCV in the FCV information storage unit 121.

  Based on the information stored in the FCV information storage unit 121, the FCV fuel remaining amount estimation unit 133 calculates a fuel consumption amount due to movement in a predetermined period for each FCV located in the prediction target region, and calculates the calculated fuel consumption Based on the amount, the remaining amount of fuel held by each FCV is estimated. Specifically, the FCV fuel remaining amount estimation unit 133 reads, from the fuel consumption table storage unit 102, the fuel consumption corresponding to the combination of the movement distance and the movement speed stored in the FCV information storage unit 121 for each FCV. The FCV fuel remaining amount estimation unit 133 subtracts the read fuel consumption amount from the estimated fuel remaining amount stored in the FCV information storage unit 121 for each FCV, and stores the FCV information as a new estimated fuel remaining amount. Stored in the unit 121.

  FIG. 6 is a flowchart illustrating a demand prediction process performed by the demand prediction apparatus 1A according to the second embodiment. Similar to the demand prediction process in the first embodiment, the demand prediction process may be periodically performed at predetermined time intervals.

  When the demand prediction process is started in the demand prediction apparatus 1A, the FCV information acquisition unit 131 acquires FCV information related to the position and movement of the FCV. Based on the acquired FCV information, the FCV information acquisition unit 131 registers, updates, and deletes information regarding the FCV in the FCV information storage unit 121 (step S301).

  When the table stored in the FCV information storage unit 121 is updated by the FCV information acquisition unit 131, the FCV movement estimation unit 132, the FCV fuel remaining amount estimation unit 133, and the FCV fuel supply determination unit 114 will be described below. Each process from step S302 to step S307 is repeated for each FCV.

  The FCV movement estimation unit 132 reads the FCV information that has not been processed from step S302 to step S307 out of the FCV information stored in the FCV information storage unit 121. The FCV movement estimation unit 132 calculates the FCV movement distance based on the read FCV information, and stores the calculated movement distance in the FCV information storage unit 121 (step S302).

  The FCV fuel remaining amount estimation unit 133 reads the FCV information whose travel distance has been updated in step S302 from the FCV information storage unit 121. The FCV fuel remaining amount estimation unit 133 reads the fuel consumption amount corresponding to the combination of the movement distance and the movement speed included in the read FCV information from the fuel consumption table storage unit 102 (step S303). The FCV fuel remaining amount estimating unit 133 subtracts the read fuel consumption from the estimated fuel remaining amount included in the FCV information, and causes the FCV information storage unit 121 to store the subtraction result as a new estimated fuel remaining amount (step) S304).

  The FCV fuel supply determination unit 114 reads the FCV information for which the estimated fuel remaining amount is calculated in step S304 from the FCV information storage unit 121. The FCV refueling determination unit 114 detects the hydrogen station 4 located in the FCV traveling direction from the hydrogen station information storage unit 105 based on the current position, movement direction, and movement distance included in the read FCV information. The detection of the hydrogen station 4 is performed based on whether or not the hydrogen station 4 is located in a fan-shaped region extending in the moving direction from the estimated position of the FCV obtained from the current position, moving direction and moving distance of the FCV. May be. The central angle θ of the sector shape is an arbitrary value within the range of 0 ° <θ <180 °.

  The FCV refueling determination unit 114 detects the distance to each detected hydrogen station 4 from the estimated position obtained from the read FCV information. For each detected hydrogen station 4, the FCV refueling determination unit 114 reads the fuel consumption corresponding to the combination of the distance to the hydrogen station 4 and the moving speed of the FCV from the fuel consumption table storage unit 102, and the FCV receives the hydrogen station 4. The fuel consumption amount consumed up to is calculated (step S305).

  The FCV refueling determination unit 114 subtracts the calculated fuel consumption from the estimated fuel remaining amount of the FCV, and estimates the remaining fuel amount held when the FCV reaches the hydrogen station 4 (step S306). The FCV fuel supply determination unit 114 reads the probability associated with the estimated remaining fuel amount from the fuel supply determination table storage unit 104, thereby calculating the probability that the FCV supplies fuel in the hydrogen station 4. The FCV fuel supply determination unit 114 stores the calculated probability of supplying fuel in each hydrogen station 4 and the amount of fuel supplied in the hydrogen station 4 in the FCV information storage unit 121 as a fuel supply prediction (step S307).

  When the processing from step S302 to step S307 is completed for all FCV information stored in the FCV information storage unit 121, the hydrogen demand estimation unit 115 is based on the fuel supply prediction calculated for each FCV. Thus, the expected value of the number of FCVs to be refueled at the hydrogen station 4 and the expected value of the total amount of fuel required for refueling are calculated for each hydrogen station 4. The hydrogen demand estimation unit 115 outputs the calculated number of FCVs to be refueled at each hydrogen station 4 and the total amount of fuel to the energy management system 2 as predicted hydrogen demand (step S308).

  According to the demand prediction device 1A of the second embodiment, for each hydrogen station 4 provided in the prediction target region, each fuel cell vehicle located in the prediction target region is based on the probability of coming in for fuel (hydrogen) supply. The demand for hydrogen can be predicted. Based on this demand, it becomes possible to guide the fuel cell vehicle to refuel with other hydrogen stations 4 avoiding the hydrogen stations 4 that are expected to be congested, and operate the hydrogen stations 4 efficiently. Will be able to.

  In the demand prediction device in each of the above embodiments, the fuel remaining amount held in the fuel cell vehicle is determined by the initial fuel set value a, but when the capacity of the fuel tank of each fuel cell vehicle can be acquired, The remaining amount of fuel may be determined based on a predetermined ratio with respect to the capacity of the fuel tank.

  Moreover, the demand prediction apparatus in each embodiment may acquire the number of fuel cell vehicles actually visited for fuel supply in each hydrogen station 4 and the amount of fuel supplied as feedback information. In this case, the demand prediction apparatus includes an initial set value update unit that compares the acquired actual number and fuel amount with the expected values of the number and fuel amount and changes the initial fuel set value a based on the comparison result. May be. When the actual number of fuel and the amount of fuel are larger than the expected values of the number of fuel and the amount of fuel, the initial fuel set value a may be smaller than the actual remaining fuel amount. To do. On the other hand, when the actual values of the number and the fuel amount are smaller than the expected values of the number and the fuel amount, the initial fuel set value a may be larger than the actual fuel remaining amount. Make it smaller.

  In addition, the demand prediction device in each embodiment sequentially acquires information related to FCV movement and predicts the hydrogen demand in each of the hydrogen stations 4. However, the virtual hydrogen station 4 is arranged in the hydrogen station information storage unit 105. It is also possible to study the arrangement of the hydrogen stations 4 by storing a table reflecting the above.

  According to at least one embodiment described above, the fuel cell vehicle replenishes fuel at the hydrogen station based on the remaining amount of fuel of each fuel cell vehicle located on the expressway and the prediction target region and the distance to the hydrogen station. By having the fuel replenishment determination unit that calculates the probability, the expected value of the number of fuel cell vehicles that refuel at each hydrogen station can be calculated, and the demand for hydrogen at the hydrogen station can be predicted.

  Although several embodiments of the present invention have been described, these embodiments are presented by way of example and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. These embodiments can be implemented in various other forms, and various omissions, replacements, and changes can be made without departing from the spirit of the invention. These embodiments and their modifications are included in the scope and gist of the invention, and are also included in the invention described in the claims and the equivalents thereof.

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1,1A ... Demand prediction apparatus, 2 ... Energy management system, 3 ... Hydrogen supply prediction system, 4 ... Hydrogen station, 41 ... Hydrogen station control apparatus, 42 ... Hydrogen tank, 43 ... Compressor, 44 ... Accumulator, 45 ... Dispenser, 51 ... ETC central system, 52 ... ITS spot central system, 53 ... traffic control system, 101 ... FCV information storage unit, 102 ... fuel consumption table storage unit, 103 ... section length table storage unit, 104 ... refueling determination table storage 105: Hydrogen station information storage unit, 111 ... FCV inflow / outflow acquisition unit, 112 ... FCV position estimation unit, 113 ... FCV fuel remaining amount estimation unit, 114 ... FCV fuel replenishment determination unit, 115 ... hydrogen demand estimation unit, 121... FCV information storage unit, 131... FCV information acquisition unit, 132... FCV movement estimation unit, 1 3 ... FCV fuel remaining capacity estimating section

Claims (6)

An information acquisition unit for acquiring information related to the movement of the fuel cell vehicle in a predetermined prediction target region;
For each fuel cell vehicle, a remaining fuel amount estimation unit that estimates a remaining fuel amount that decreases with movement; and
For each combination of a hydrogen station provided in the prediction target area and the fuel cell vehicle, the fuel at the hydrogen station is based on the remaining amount of fuel held by the fuel cell vehicle and the distance to the hydrogen station. A fuel replenishment determination unit for calculating a probability that the battery car will refuel and a fuel amount to be replenished;
Based on the probability and amount of fuel calculated by the fuel replenishment determination unit, the number of fuel cell vehicles to be refueled and the expected value of the amount of fuel to be replenished are calculated for each hydrogen station. A demand forecasting device comprising: a hydrogen demand estimation unit that outputs an expected value of quantity as control information for controlling equipment in the hydrogen station. The prediction target area is a highway provided with an interchange at the entrance,
The vehicle further includes a position estimation unit that obtains an average speed of the vehicle in a plurality of sections obtained by dividing the highway, and estimates a position of the fuel cell vehicle,
The information acquisition unit acquires information on fuel cell vehicles flowing in and out at the interchange.
The demand prediction apparatus according to claim 1. A fuel replenishment determination table storage unit that stores a fuel replenishment determination table in which a remaining amount of fuel held by the fuel cell automobile and a probability that the fuel cell automobile replenishes fuel at the hydrogen station are associated;
The fuel supply determination unit calculates fuel consumed for reaching the hydrogen station based on a distance from the position estimated by the position estimation unit to the hydrogen station for each fuel cell vehicle, The demand prediction device according to claim 2, wherein a probability of fuel replenishment is calculated by reading a probability associated with a remaining amount of fuel when the station is reached from the fuel replenishment determination table. An information acquisition step of acquiring information relating to the movement of the fuel cell vehicle in a predetermined prediction target region;
For each fuel cell vehicle, a remaining fuel amount estimating step for estimating a remaining fuel amount that decreases with movement; and
For each combination of a hydrogen station provided in the prediction target area and the fuel cell vehicle, the fuel at the hydrogen station is based on the remaining amount of fuel held by the fuel cell vehicle and the distance to the hydrogen station. A fuel replenishment determination step of calculating a probability that the battery car will refuel and a fuel amount to be replenished;
Based on the probability and fuel amount calculated in the refueling determination step, the number of fuel cell vehicles to be refueled and the expected value of the fuel amount to be refilled are calculated for each hydrogen station. And a hydrogen demand estimating step of outputting an expected value of the quantity as control information for controlling equipment in the hydrogen station. An information acquisition step of acquiring information relating to the movement of the fuel cell vehicle in a predetermined prediction target region;
For each fuel cell vehicle, a remaining fuel amount estimating step for estimating a remaining fuel amount that decreases with movement; and
For each combination of a hydrogen station provided in the prediction target area and the fuel cell vehicle, the fuel at the hydrogen station is based on the remaining amount of fuel held by the fuel cell vehicle and the distance to the hydrogen station. A fuel replenishment determination step of calculating a probability that the battery car will refuel and a fuel amount to be replenished;
Based on the probability and fuel amount calculated in the refueling determination step, the number of fuel cell vehicles to be refueled and the expected value of the fuel amount to be refilled are calculated for each hydrogen station. A demand prediction program for causing a computer to execute a hydrogen demand estimation step of outputting an expected value of the quantity as control information for controlling equipment in the hydrogen station. A hydrogen station that is provided in a predetermined prediction target region and supplies hydrogen to a fuel cell vehicle as fuel, a demand prediction device that predicts fuel demand in the hydrogen station, and the hydrogen station based on the predicted hydrogen demand A demand management system comprising an energy management system for arranging hydrogen to be supplied to
The demand prediction device
An information acquisition unit for acquiring information related to the movement of the fuel cell vehicle in the prediction target region;
For each fuel cell vehicle, a remaining fuel amount estimation unit that estimates a remaining fuel amount that decreases with movement; and
For each combination of the hydrogen station and the fuel cell vehicle, the fuel cell vehicle supplies fuel at the hydrogen station based on the remaining amount of fuel held by the fuel cell vehicle and the distance to the hydrogen station. A refueling determination unit for calculating the probability of performing and the amount of fuel to be replenished;
Based on the probability and amount of fuel calculated by the fuel replenishment determination unit, the number of fuel cell vehicles to be refueled and the expected value of the amount of fuel to be replenished are calculated for each hydrogen station. A hydrogen demand estimation unit that outputs an expected amount of fuel as the fuel demand to the energy management system,
Demand management system.

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