JP2016065801A - Information processing device, information processing method, and information processing system - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an information processing device, an information processing method, and an information processing system having a new and improved feature of being capable of enhancing reliability of evacuation information at an object point.SOLUTION: The information processing device is provided with: a prediction part 120 that predicts a water level at the object point; a judgement part 130 that judges a degree of risk on the basis of a prediction result, which has been obtained by the prediction part 120, relating to the water level at a time point after a lapse of a lead time from a present time; and an acquisition part 150 that acquires evacuation information corresponding to the degree of the risk judged by the judgement part 130.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 5

Description

  The present invention relates to an information processing apparatus, an information processing method, and an information processing system.

  Conventionally, in order to prevent disasters such as flooding and flooding of rivers due to heavy rain, etc., the water level of rivers and the like has been predicted in advance. In addition, the predicted water level of a river or the like is compared with a predetermined threshold, and evacuation information is communicated to local residents when there is a risk of disaster.

  For example, Patent Document 1 predicts the water level in the underpass after several hours from past flood data, rainfall prediction information, and the measured value of the water level in the underpass, and determines the water level of the predicted river or the like in advance. An apparatus for determining whether or not to deliver evacuation information by comparing with a given threshold value is disclosed.

JP 2006-013185 A

  However, the conventional apparatus has a problem that the reliability of the evacuation information is insufficient.

  Specifically, in a conventional apparatus, the water level at the time when several hours longer than the lead time generally required for evacuation has elapsed is predicted, and whether or not the evacuation information is distributed based on the predicted water level is determined. Done. However, since the accuracy of the prediction result decreases as the time interval between the time corresponding to the prediction result of the water level and the current time increases, the reliability of the delivered evacuation information also decreases. As a result, when the evacuation information is distributed, there is a problem that a disaster does not actually occur and a so-called idling occurs.

  Therefore, the present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and an object of the present invention is to provide a new and improved information processing apparatus capable of improving the reliability of evacuation information at a target point. It is to provide an information processing method and an information processing system.

  In order to solve the above-described problem, according to a certain aspect of the present invention, a prediction unit that predicts a water level at a target point, and a prediction result related to the water level at the time when a lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit. Accordingly, an information processing device is provided that includes a determination unit that determines the degree of risk in response, and an acquisition unit that acquires evacuation information corresponding to the risk level determined by the determination unit.

  The determination unit, when the water level at the time when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit is greater than or equal to a first threshold, the time at which the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit It may be determined that the degree of risk is higher than when the water level is lower than the first threshold.

  The first threshold is higher than a second threshold, and the determination unit determines that the prediction unit determines that the water level at the time when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit is equal to or greater than the first threshold. It is determined that the water level at the time when the lead time has elapsed from the obtained current time is lower than the first threshold and greater than or equal to the second threshold, and the lead time is determined from the current time obtained by the prediction unit. When the water level at the time when it has passed is lower than the first threshold and equal to or greater than the second threshold, than when the water level when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit is lower than the second threshold. It may be determined that the degree of risk is high.

  The prediction unit may predict a probability distribution of the water level, and the determination unit may determine the degree of risk according to the probability distribution obtained when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit.

  The determination unit may determine the degree of risk according to a probability that the water level is equal to or higher than a first threshold in the probability distribution obtained when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit.

  The first threshold is higher than a second threshold, and the determination unit further has the water level equal to or higher than the second threshold in the probability distribution obtained when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit. The degree of risk may be determined according to the probability.

  The determination unit includes a prediction result relating to the water level at the time when the first lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit, and a time at which the second lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit. The degree of risk may be determined according to a prediction result relating to the water level.

  The determination unit is obtained by the prediction unit, wherein the water level at a second time when a second lead time longer than the first lead time from the current time obtained by the prediction unit has passed is a first threshold value or more. When the water level at the first time point when the first lead time has elapsed from the current time is smaller than the first threshold value, the water level at the second time point obtained by the prediction unit is smaller than the first threshold value and the prediction It may be determined that the degree of risk is higher than when the water level at the first time point obtained by the section is smaller than the first threshold value.

  The prediction unit may predict a water level of a river.

  The determination unit may determine the degree of risk using a first threshold value indicating a flooding water level at the target point.

  The prediction unit may predict the water level using a tank model.

  The lead time may be a time corresponding to a distance from a point where the water level is predicted to a nearest shelter.

  The determination unit may further determine the degree of risk according to a prediction result regarding the water level between a current time obtained by the prediction unit and a time when a lead time has elapsed from the current time.

  Further, in order to solve the above-described problem, according to another aspect of the present invention, a risk is predicted according to a step of predicting a water level at a target point and a prediction result regarding the water level at the time when the lead time has elapsed from the obtained current time point. There is provided an information processing method including a step of determining a degree and a step of acquiring evacuation information corresponding to the determined degree of risk.

  In order to solve the above problem, according to another aspect of the present invention, an information processing device, a rainfall information acquisition unit that acquires rainfall information and transmits the rainfall information to the information processing device, and a target point An information processing system including a water level information acquisition unit that acquires water level information and transmits the water level information to the information processing device, and an evacuation information notification device, wherein the information processing device includes the rainfall information, the water level A prediction unit that predicts the water level of the target point from the information, a determination unit that determines a risk level according to a prediction result regarding the water level at the time when a lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit, and the determination An evacuation information notifying device for acquiring the evacuation information received from the information processing device. Temu is provided.

  As described above, according to the present invention, the reliability of evacuation information at a target point can be improved.

It is explanatory drawing which shows the structure of the information processing system by embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of the process which the rainfall sensor or water level sensor by embodiment of this invention performs. It is explanatory drawing which shows the specific example of the prediction result of the water level obtained by the evacuation information delivery apparatus which concerns on a comparative example. It is explanatory drawing which shows the specific example of the observation result of a water level. It is explanatory drawing which shows the structure of the evacuation information delivery apparatus by the 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of the process which the evacuation information delivery apparatus by the 1st Embodiment of this invention performs. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of the water level prediction process which the evacuation information delivery apparatus by the 1st Embodiment of this invention performs. It is explanatory drawing which shows the specific example of a tank model. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of the risk determination process which the evacuation information delivery apparatus by the 1st Embodiment of this invention performs. It is explanatory drawing which shows the specific example of the prediction result of the water level obtained by the evacuation information delivery apparatus by the 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the specific example of the prediction result of the water level obtained by the evacuation information delivery apparatus by the 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of the evacuation message process which the evacuation information delivery apparatus by the 1st Embodiment of this invention performs. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of the risk determination process which the evacuation information delivery apparatus which concerns on a modification performs. It is explanatory drawing which shows the specific example of the prediction result of the water level obtained by the evacuation information delivery apparatus which concerns on a modification. It is explanatory drawing which shows the specific example of the prediction result of the water level obtained by the evacuation information delivery apparatus which concerns on a modification. It is explanatory drawing which shows the specific example of the prediction result of the water level obtained by the evacuation information delivery apparatus which concerns on a modification. It is explanatory drawing which shows the specific example of the prediction result of the water level obtained by the evacuation information delivery apparatus which concerns on a modification. It is explanatory drawing which shows the structure of the evacuation information delivery apparatus by the 2nd Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of the water level prediction process which the evacuation information delivery apparatus by the 2nd Embodiment of this invention performs. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of the risk determination process which the evacuation information delivery apparatus by the 2nd Embodiment of this invention performs. It is explanatory drawing which shows the specific example of the probability distribution of the prediction water level at the time of danger lead time progress obtained from the present time obtained by the evacuation information delivery apparatus by the 2nd Embodiment of this invention. It is explanatory drawing which shows the specific example of the probability distribution of the prediction water level at the time of danger lead time progress obtained from the present time obtained by the evacuation information delivery apparatus by the 2nd Embodiment of this invention.

  Exemplary embodiments of the present invention will be described below in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. In addition, in this specification and drawing, about the component which has the substantially same function structure, duplication description is abbreviate | omitted by attaching | subjecting the same code | symbol.

<0. Introduction>
Embodiments of the present invention are applied to an information processing apparatus, an information processing method, and an information processing system for preventing disasters such as flooding of rivers and the like due to heavy rain, flooding or underpass, and flooding in lowlands including underground facilities. Is done. The information processing apparatus, the information processing method, and the information processing system according to the present embodiment can predict the water level of a river or the like in advance, and can make evacuation information known to local residents when there is a risk of a disaster. . Hereinafter, the configuration and operation of the information processing apparatus, the information processing method, and the information processing system according to the present embodiment will be sequentially described in detail.

<1. Configuration of information processing system>
FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram showing a configuration of an information processing system according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 1, the information processing system according to the present embodiment includes a rain sensor 1, a water level sensor 3, an evacuation information display device 5, an evacuation information broadcasting device 7, a rainfall prediction service 9, and an administrator terminal. 11 and an evacuation information distribution device 13. The rainfall sensor 1, the water level sensor 3, the evacuation information display device 5, the evacuation information broadcast device 7, the rainfall prediction service 9, the manager terminal 11, and the evacuation information distribution device 13 are wired or wireless communication networks. 15 can communicate with each other.

  The rainfall sensor 1 is a rainfall information acquisition unit that acquires rainfall information and transmits the acquired rainfall information. For example, the rainfall sensor 1 acquires rainfall information by observation at regular intervals or at regular intervals, stores the rainfall information therein, and transmits the rainfall information to the evacuation information distribution device 13.

  The water level sensor 3 is a water level information acquisition unit that acquires water level information and transmits the acquired water level information. For example, the water level sensor 3 acquires water level information that is observed constantly or at regular intervals, stores the water level information therein, and transmits the water level information to the evacuation information distribution device 13. Here, the flow of processing performed by the rainfall sensor 1 and the water level sensor 3 will be described with reference to FIG.

  FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing a flow of processing performed by the rainfall sensor or the water level sensor according to the embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 2, the rain sensor 1 or the water level sensor 3 performs processing related to storage of observation information (S102, S104) and processing related to transmission of observation information (S106, S108) in parallel. In the process related to storage of observation information, when the rainfall sensor 1 acquires rainfall information that is observed constantly or at regular intervals (S102), it stores the acquired rainfall information inside (S104) and returns to the process of S102. . Moreover, if the water level sensor 3 acquires the water level information observed always or every fixed time (S102), it will memorize | store the acquired water level information inside (S104), and will return to the process of S102. On the other hand, in the process related to the transmission of observation information, the rainfall sensor 1 waits until the set time (S106), transmits the rainfall information to the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 (S108), and returns to the process of S106. The water level sensor 3 waits until the set time (S106), transmits the water level information to the evacuation information distribution device 13 (S108), and returns to the process of S106. For example, the set time in S106 is a time set at a constant time interval. Specifically, the set time in S106 is a time set at an interval of 10 minutes. If an error occurs in any of the processes, the rain sensor 1 or the water level sensor 3 ends the process related to storage of observation information and the process related to transmission of observation information.

  The evacuation information display device 5 is an evacuation information notification device that receives evacuation information and displays the received evacuation information. For example, the evacuation information display device 5 receives an evacuation message from the evacuation information distribution device 13 and displays the received evacuation message. The display of the evacuation information is realized by a CRT (Cathode Ray Tube) display device, a liquid crystal display (LCD) device, an OLED (Organic Light Emitting Diode) device and the like provided in the evacuation information display device 5. The evacuation message is notified to the local residents by the evacuation information display device 5.

  The evacuation information broadcast device 7 is an evacuation information notification device that receives evacuation information and broadcasts the received evacuation information. For example, the evacuation information broadcasting device 7 receives an evacuation message from the evacuation information distribution device 13 and broadcasts the received evacuation message. In addition, broadcasting of evacuation information is realized by a speaker or the like provided in the evacuation information broadcasting device 7. The evacuation message is notified to the local residents by the evacuation information display device 5.

  The rain amount prediction service 9 is a service that predicts the rain amount per unit time and provides the rain information to the evacuation information distribution device 13. For example, the rainfall prediction service 9 is an external service such as the Meteorological Agency's short-time precipitation forecast and radar nowcast. In addition, the interval at which the rainfall prediction service 9 predicts the rainfall is set to, for example, a 5-minute interval from the current time until 1 hour elapses, and a 1-hour interval from the current time until 1 hour elapses until 6 hours elapses.

  The manager terminal 11 is a terminal that receives the evacuation information and notifies the manager of the flood control management organization of the evacuation information. For example, the manager terminal 11 receives an evacuation message from the evacuation information distribution device 13, and notifies the manager of a flood control organization designated by the prefectural governor and governor. Further, when the administrator terminal 11 receives the evacuation message, the administrator terminal 11 may execute a preset process.

  The evacuation information distribution device 13 predicts the water level of the target point, determines the risk level according to the prediction result regarding the water level at the time when the lead time required for evacuation has elapsed from the present time, and the evacuation information according to the determined risk level Is an information processing apparatus for acquiring For example, the evacuation information distribution device 13 uses the rain level information obtained from the rain sensor 1, the water level information obtained from the water level sensor 3, and the rainfall forecast information obtained from the rain forecast service 9, and the water level at the target point. Predict. The evacuation information distribution device 13 transmits the acquired evacuation information to the evacuation information display device 5, the evacuation information broadcasting device 7, and the manager terminal 11. The configuration of the evacuation information distribution device 13 will be described later.

<2. Comparative Example>
The outline of the configuration of the information processing system has been described above. Here, in order to clarify the technical significance of the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the present embodiment, prior to the description of the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the present embodiment, a comparative example with reference to FIG. 3 and FIG. An operation performed by the evacuation information distribution apparatus according to FIG.

  The evacuation information distribution apparatus according to the comparative example predicts the water level at the target point, and determines the degree of risk according to the water level at the time when several hours longer than the lead time generally have elapsed from the present time obtained by the prediction. Specifically, the evacuation information distribution device according to the comparative example determines that the danger level is “danger” when the water level at the time when several hours have elapsed from the present time obtained by prediction is higher than the dangerous water level, and the local residents Deliver evacuation information to On the other hand, the evacuation information distribution device according to the comparative example determines that the risk level is “normal” when the water level at the time when several hours have elapsed from the present time obtained by the prediction is lower than the dangerous water level, and evacuates information to local residents. Do not deliver. Hereinafter, a specific example of risk determination by the evacuation information distribution apparatus according to the comparative example will be described with reference to FIGS. 3 and 4.

  FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a specific example of a prediction result of the water level obtained by the evacuation information distribution apparatus according to the comparative example. FIG. 3 shows a graph displaying time change of the water level with the horizontal axis representing time and the vertical axis representing the water level. In the graph shown in FIG. 3, the solid line connecting the plot points indicates the observed water level information, the broken line connecting the plot points indicates the prediction result of the water level predicted by the evacuation information distribution apparatus according to the comparative example, and the dashed line Indicates the upper and lower limits of the error range of the water level prediction result. In the graph shown in FIG. 3, the time interval between adjacent plot points is 15 minutes. Hereinafter, in the graphs shown in FIGS. 4, 10, 11, and 14 to 17, the solid line connecting the plot points, the broken line connecting the plot points, the alternate long and short dash line, and the information indicated by the intervals between the plot points are the same as the information in FIG. 3. .

  In FIG. 3, since the water level at the time when several hours longer than the lead time has elapsed since the current time predicted by the evacuation information distribution device according to the comparative example is higher than the dangerous water level, the evacuation information distribution device according to the comparative example shows the risk level. Judge as "dangerous" and distribute evacuation information to local residents.

  However, the accuracy of the prediction result decreases as the time interval between the time corresponding to the prediction result of the water level and the current time increases. For example, in the graph shown in FIG. 3, the error range of the prediction result of the water level used for determination of the degree of risk after one hour from the current time is larger than the error range of the prediction result of the water level when 30 minutes have passed from the current time. . Therefore, the water level actually observed at the time corresponding to the prediction result of the water level used for the risk determination may be lower than the dangerous water level as shown in FIG. The graph shown in FIG. 4 displays the water level observation result obtained by replacing the portion corresponding to the water level prediction result in the graph shown in FIG. 3 with the actually observed water level information.

  As described above, in the evacuation information distribution apparatus according to the comparative example, the accuracy of the prediction result of the water level used for the determination of the degree of risk is lowered, so the reliability of the evacuation information distributed is insufficient. As a result, when the evacuation information is distributed, there is a problem that a disaster does not actually occur and a so-called idling occurs.

<3. Evacuation Information Distribution Device According to First Embodiment>
According to the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention, it is possible to solve the above problem and improve the reliability of the evacuation information. Hereinafter, the configuration and operation of the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the first embodiment will be sequentially described in detail.

[Constitution]
FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing the configuration of the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 5, the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention includes a sensor data storage unit 110, a water level prediction unit 120, a risk determination unit 130, and an evacuation message storage unit 140. The acquisition unit 150 and the communication unit 160 are provided.

  The sensor data storage unit 110 stores the rainfall information obtained by the rain sensor 1 and the water level information obtained by the water level sensor 3. Note that the rainfall information and the water level information include observation values, sensor type information, and observation time information.

  The water level prediction unit 120 includes a water level prediction parameter storage unit 121, a water level prediction variable storage unit 123, and a water level prediction processing unit 125.

  The water level prediction parameter storage unit 121 stores parameters used for water level prediction. For example, the water level prediction parameter storage unit 121 includes the outflow coefficient of the outflow holes of the first to third stage tanks in the three-stage tank model and the infiltration of the infiltration outflow holes of the first to third stage tanks in the three-stage tank model. The coefficient, the height of each of the first to third tanks in the three-stage tank model, the basin area corresponding to the target point, and the first and second coefficients in the HQ equation are stored.

  The water level prediction variable storage unit 123 stores variables used for water level prediction. For example, the water level prediction variable storage unit 123 stores the storage height of each of the first to third tanks in the three-stage tank model and the calculation time in the three-stage tank model.

  The water level prediction processing unit 125 controls the overall operation of the water level prediction unit 120. For example, the water level prediction processing unit 125 includes the rain amount information obtained by the rain amount sensor 1, the water level information obtained by the water level sensor 3, the rain amount prediction information obtained by the rain amount prediction service 9, and a water level prediction parameter storage unit. The water level at the target point is predicted from the various parameters acquired from 121 and the various variables acquired from the water level prediction variable storage unit 123. Specifically, the water level prediction processing unit 125 predicts the water level at the target point using the tank model and the HQ equation.

  Note that the method for calculating the predicted water level at the target point is not limited to the method using the tank model, and the water level prediction processing unit 125 may calculate the predicted water level at the target point by other known methods. For example, the water level prediction processing unit 125 may calculate the predicted water level of the target point using a known outflow model such as a rational formula, unit projection, or storage function method. Further, the water level prediction processing unit 125 outputs the predicted water level information to the acquisition unit 150.

  The risk determination unit 130 includes a risk determination parameter storage unit 131 and a risk determination processing unit 133.

  The risk determination parameter storage unit 131 stores various determination parameters used for risk determination. For example, the risk determination parameter storage unit 131 stores lead time information and water level threshold information. Specifically, the risk determination parameter storage unit 131 may store the time required for evacuation according to the distance from the point where the water level is predicted to the nearest evacuation site as the risk lead time. A dangerous water level indicating the generated water level may be stored as a water level threshold. The risk determination parameter storage unit 131 may store a plurality of lead time information and a plurality of water level threshold information.

  The risk determination processing unit 133 controls the overall operation of the risk determination unit 130. For example, the risk determination processing unit 133 determines the risk according to the prediction result regarding the water level obtained when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the water level prediction unit 120. Specifically, the risk level determination processing unit 133 determines the current level obtained by the water level prediction unit 120 when the water level at the time when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the water level prediction unit 120 is equal to or greater than the first threshold. It is determined that the degree of risk is higher than when the water level at the time when the lead time has elapsed is lower than the first threshold. The risk determination processing unit 133 may determine the risk using the first threshold value indicating the flood occurrence water level at the target point, and the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the water level prediction unit 120 and the current time. You may determine a risk according to the prediction result regarding the water level between time points. In the risk determination, the risk determination processing unit 133 may use a time corresponding to the distance from the point where the water level is predicted to the nearest shelter as the lead time. In addition, the risk determination processing unit 133 outputs the risk determination information to the acquisition unit 150.

  The evacuation message storage unit 140 stores an evacuation message corresponding to the degree of risk. For example, in the evacuation message storage unit 140, there is a high risk of flooding the XX river according to the danger level of “danger”. For residents in the vicinity, please evacuate to a higher place or the nearest shelter. According to the evacuation message and “Attention”, the water level of the XX river is high. If you live in the vicinity, please prepare for evacuation and pay attention to future information. ” Memorize the evacuation message.

  The acquisition unit 150 acquires evacuation information corresponding to the degree of risk. Specifically, the acquisition unit 150 acquires an evacuation message corresponding to the risk determined by the risk determination unit 130 from the evacuation message storage unit 140. The acquisition unit 150 acquires the predicted water level information from the water level prediction unit 120 and outputs the predicted water level information to the risk level determination unit 130. Furthermore, the acquisition unit 150 outputs an evacuation message to the communication unit 160.

  The communication unit 160 communicates with a device outside the evacuation information distribution device 13. Specifically, the communication unit 160 receives the rainfall sensor 1, the water level sensor 3, the evacuation information display device 5, the evacuation information broadcasting device 7, and the rainfall prediction service 9 via the wired or wireless communication network 15. The administrator terminal 11 and the evacuation information distribution device 13 communicate with each other. More specifically, the communication unit 160 transmits the evacuation message acquired from the acquisition unit 150 to the evacuation information display device 5, the evacuation information broadcasting device 7, and the manager terminal 11. In addition, the communication unit 160 receives rain amount information, water level information, and rain amount prediction information from the rain amount sensor 1, the water level sensor 3, and the rain amount prediction service 9, respectively. The communication unit 160 outputs rainfall information and water level information to the sensor information storage unit, and outputs rainfall prediction information to the water level prediction unit 120.

[Operation]
The configuration of the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the first embodiment has been described above. Next, the operation of the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the first embodiment will be described.

  FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing a flow of processing performed by the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 6, the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 performs processing related to storage of observation information (S202, S204) and periodic execution processing (S206, S300, S400, S500) in parallel. In the process related to storage of observation information, when the evacuation information distribution device 13 acquires rainfall information or water level information from the rain sensor 1 or water level sensor 3 (S202), it stores the acquired rainfall information or water level information (S204). The process returns to S202. On the other hand, in the regular execution process, the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 waits until the set time (S206), then processes the water level prediction process (S300), then processes the risk determination process (S400), and then The evacuation message process is processed (S500), and the process returns to S206. For example, the set time in S206 is a time set at a constant time interval. Specifically, the set time in S206 is a time set at an interval of 10 minutes. If an error occurs in any of the processes, the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 ends the process related to storage of observation information and the periodic execution process. Hereinafter, a water level prediction process, a risk determination process, and an evacuation message process performed by the evacuation information distribution apparatus according to the first embodiment of the present invention will be sequentially described.

(Water level prediction process)
FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing the flow of the water level prediction process performed by the evacuation information distribution apparatus according to the first embodiment of the present invention. In FIG. 7, the water level prediction processing unit 125 acquires the latest rainfall information and the latest water level information from the sensor data storage unit 110 (S302), and when any of the acquired information is not information within a certain time from the current time. (S304 / NO), it is determined that an error has occurred, and the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 ends the processing related to storage of observation information and the periodic execution processing (S306). For example, the current time is February 24, 2014, 12:05:00, the certain time is set to 10 minutes, and the latest water level information acquired is February 24, 2014, 11:54. In the case of 20 seconds, since the latest water level information acquired is not information within a certain time from the present time, the water level prediction processing unit 125 determines that an error has occurred.

  On the other hand, when all the acquired information is information within a certain time from the current time (S304 / YES), the water level prediction processing unit 125 acquires the rainfall prediction information obtained by the rainfall prediction service 9 (S308). . For example, the water level prediction processing unit 125 predicts the rainfall at each of a plurality of times divided into 10-minute intervals from the current time until 1 hour has elapsed and from 1 hour to 6 hours after the current time. Get information. More specifically, when the current time is 12:00, the water level prediction processing unit 125 determines that the rainfall per 10 minutes from 12:00 to 12:10 is 5-10 [mm] and from 12:10. 5-10 [mm] of rainfall per 10 minutes until 12:20, ... 0-2 [mm] of rainfall per hour from 13:00 to 14:00, 14:00 to 15:00 The rainfall amount of 0 [mm] per hour until ..., and the rainfall amount of 30 [mm] per hour from 17:00 to 18:00 are acquired. Note that the rainfall prediction information may be a value having no prediction width.

  Next, the water level prediction processing unit 125 corrects the rainfall prediction information (S310). Specifically, the water level prediction processing unit 125 converts rainfall prediction information having a prediction width for each of a plurality of times into an average value of an upper limit value and a lower limit value in the prediction width. The water level prediction processing unit 125 may convert the rainfall prediction information having the prediction width for each of a plurality of times into a value obtained by multiplying the upper limit value in the prediction width by the lower limit value.

Next, the water level prediction processing unit 125 acquires various parameters and various variables from the water level prediction parameter storage unit 121 and the water level prediction variable storage unit 123, respectively (S312). For example, the water level prediction processing unit 125, the first stage of discharge coefficient alpha ₁ 0.25 outflow hole of the tank in three stages tank model, as the discharge coefficient alpha ₂ of the second-stage tank outlet 0.1 and the discharge coefficient alpha ₃ as 0.02 of the outflow hole of the third-stage tank, the first stage in the three-stage tank model penetration coefficient beta ₁ 0.25 penetration outflow hole of the tank, the second stage the permeability coefficient beta ₂ as 0.1 penetration outflow hole of the tank, the third stage the penetration coefficient beta ₃ as 0.02 penetration outflow hole of the tank, the outlet hole of the first-stage tank in three stages tank model the 15 [mm] as the height L _1, the 5 [mm] as the height L ₂ of the second-stage tank outlet of the 0 [mm] as the height L ₃ of the outflow hole of the third-stage tank , 27 [km ² ] as the basin area corresponding to the target point, as the first coefficient a in the HQ equation 80 is acquired from the water level prediction parameter storage unit 121 as 0 as the second coefficient b. In addition, the value of various parameters is not limited to the value in a present Example, You may set according to the environment of an object point. In addition, the water level prediction processing unit 125 includes a storage height S1 of the _first tank in the three-stage tank model, a storage height S2 of the _second tank, and a storage height S3 of the _third tank. The calculation time t in the three-stage tank model and the water level prediction variable storage unit 123 are acquired.

  Thereafter, the water level prediction processing unit 125 calculates a predicted water level (S314). Specifically, the water level prediction processing unit 125 includes the rain amount information obtained by the rain amount sensor 1, the water level information obtained by the water level sensor 3, the rain amount prediction information obtained by the rain amount prediction service 9, and the water level prediction. The predicted water level of the target point is calculated using the various parameters acquired from the parameter storage unit 121, the various variables acquired from the water level prediction variable storage unit 123, the tank model, and the HQ equation.

  More specifically, the water level prediction processing unit 125 regards the total amount of outflow per unit time from the side holes of the first to third tanks in the tank model as an increase in the amount of water per unit time at the target point. The increment of the amount of water at the target point from the present time to each time is calculated by calculating the total value at each time separated by a fixed time interval. Next, the water level prediction processing unit 125 converts the water volume increment at the target point from the present time to each time into the water level increment using the HQ equation. Further, the water level prediction processing unit 125 calculates the predicted water level of the target point from the calculated water level increment at the target point from the current time to each time and the water level information obtained by the water level sensor 3. Hereinafter, with reference to FIG. 8, calculation of the outflow amount per unit time from the side holes of the first to third tanks in the tank model by the water level prediction processing unit 125 will be described.

FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing a specific example of a tank model. In FIG. 8, R represents a value obtained by multiplying the rainfall per hour by 1/6, β ₁ , β ₂ , and β ₃ represent the permeation coefficients of the permeation outflow holes of the first to third stage tanks, respectively. ₁ , S ₂ , S ₃ each indicate the storage height of each of the 1st to 3rd stage tanks, L ₁ , L ₂ , L ₃ each indicate the height of the outflow hole of each of the 1st to 3rd stage tanks, q ₁ , q ₂ , and q ₃ represent the outflow height per unit time from the side hole of each of the 1st to 3rd stage tanks, and Q represents the total value of q ₁ , q ₂ , and q _3. Show. Here, assuming that the outflow coefficients of the outflow holes of the first to third stage tanks are α ₁ , α ₂ , α ₃ , the calculation time is t, and the calculation time interval is Δt, 1 to 3 at the calculation time t. The outflow heights q ₁ (t), q ₂ (t), and q ₃ (t) per unit time from the side hole of each tank in the stage are expressed by the following equations.

q ₁ (t) = α ₁ {S ₁ (t) −L ₁ }
q ₂ (t) = α ₂ {S ₂ (t) −L ₂ }
q ₃ (t) = α ₃ {S ₃ (t) −L ₃ } (Formula 1)

The water level prediction processing unit 125 uses the above formula (1), various parameters acquired from the water level prediction parameter storage unit 121, and various variables acquired from the water level prediction variable storage unit 123, q ₁ (t). , Q ₂ (t), q ₃ (t) are calculated.

Next, the water level prediction processing unit 125 stores the storage heights S ₁ (t + Δt), S ₂ (t + Δt), and S ₃ (in the _{first to} third stages at the time when the calculation time interval Δt has elapsed from the calculation time t. t + Δt) is calculated. For example, the calculation time interval Δt is set to 10 minutes. Here, the storage heights S ₁ (t + Δt), S ₂ (t + Δt), and S ₃ (t + Δt) of the _{first to} third stage tanks at the time when the calculation time interval Δt has elapsed from the calculation time t are expressed by the following equations: It is represented by

S ₁ (t + Δt) = (1−β ₁ Δt) S ₁ (t) −q ₁ (t) Δt + R
S ₂ (t + Δt) = (1−β ₂ Δt) S ₂ (t) −q ₂ (t) Δt + β ₁ S ₁ (t) Δt
S ₃ (t + Δt) = (1−β ₃ Δt) S ₃ (t) −q ₃ (t) Δt + β ₂ S ₂ (t) Δt
(Formula 2)

The water level prediction processing unit 125 is obtained by the above formula (2), various parameters acquired from the water level prediction parameter storage unit 121, various variables acquired from the water level prediction variable storage unit 123, and the rainfall prediction service 9. (T + Δt), S ₂ (t + Δt), and S ₃ (t + Δt) are calculated using the rainfall prediction information.

Next, the water level prediction processing unit 125 sequentially performs q _i (t + Δt), S _i (t + 2Δt), q _i (t + 2Δt), S _i (t + 3Δt), ... q _i (t + NΔt) (i = 1, 2, 3). Is calculated. Note that the water level prediction processing unit 125 may set S ₁ and S ₂ to 0 for the initial values of the storage heights S ₁ , S ₂ , and S ₃ of the _{first to} third stages of tanks, and set S ₃ to You may set to the value calculated from the water level observation value of the target point of a steady state.

Next, the water level prediction processing unit 125 calculates Q at each time as a total value of the outflow heights q ₁ , q ₂ , and q ₃ calculated at each time, and calculates the watershed area corresponding to the target point and the calculated watershed area. The amount of outflow at each time is calculated using Q. Next, the water level prediction processing unit 125 calculates a total value of the outflow amount from the present time to each time, and regards the total value of the outflow amount as an increase in the water amount at the target point from the present time to each time. Next, the water level prediction processing unit 125 converts the water volume increment at the target point from the present time to each time into the water level increment using the HQ equation. Here, the flow rate M is expressed by the following HQ equation.

M = a (H + b) ²

  The water level prediction processing unit 125 includes the HQ equation, the values of the first coefficient a and the second coefficient b acquired from the water level prediction parameter storage unit 121, and the calculated current time corresponding to M in the HQ equation to each time. The water level increment at the target point is calculated from the current time corresponding to H in the HQ equation to each time using the water volume increment at the target point. Next, the water level prediction processing unit 125 calculates the predicted water level of the target point from the calculated water level increment at the target point from the current time to each time and the water level information obtained by the water level sensor 3. Next, the water level prediction processing unit 125 outputs the calculated predicted water level information of the target point to the acquisition unit 150 (S316).

  As described above, in this embodiment, the example of calculating the predicted water level of the target point using the tank model has been described. However, the method of calculating the predicted water level of the target point is not limited to the method using the tank model, and the water level prediction is performed. The processing unit 125 may calculate the predicted water level of the target point by other known methods. For example, the water level prediction processing unit 125 may calculate the predicted water level of the target point using a known outflow model such as a rational formula, unit projection, or storage function method.

(Danger level judgment process)
FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing the flow of the risk determination process performed by the evacuation information distribution apparatus according to the first embodiment of the present invention. In FIG. 9, the risk determination processing unit 133 acquires predicted water level information from the acquisition unit 150 (S402), and acquires various determination parameters from the risk determination parameter storage unit 131 (S404). For example, the risk determination processing unit 133 acquires lead time information and water level threshold information from the risk determination parameter storage unit 131. Specifically, the risk determination processing unit 133 acquires 30 [minutes] as the dangerous lead time and 4.00 [m] as the dangerous water level. Next, the risk determination processing unit 133 supplements the predicted water level information (S406). For example, the risk determination processing unit 133 assumes that the predicted water level corresponding to the time between the calculation time t and the calculation time t + Δt changes linearly, and corresponds to the time between the calculation time t and the calculation time t + Δt. You may supplement the predicted water level. Specifically, the risk determination processing unit 133 has a calculation time interval of 10 minutes, a predicted water level 10 minutes after the current time is 2.50 [m], and a predicted water level 20 minutes after the current time is 2.75 [m]. m], the predicted water level after 11 minutes is 2.525 [m], the predicted water level after 12 minutes is 2.55 [m], the predicted water level after 13 minutes is 2.575 [m], ..., the predicted water level after 19 minutes is supplemented with 2.725 [m].

  Next, when the water level at the time when the dangerous lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is equal to or higher than the dangerous water level (S408 / YES), the risk level determination processing unit 133 determines the risk level as “danger” (S410). On the other hand, when the water level at the time when the dangerous lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is lower than the dangerous water level (S408 / NO), the risk is determined as “normal” (S412). Next, the risk determination processing unit 133 outputs the determined risk determination information to the acquisition unit 150 (S414). Hereinafter, with reference to FIG. 10 and FIG. 11, a specific example of risk determination by the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention will be described.

  FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a specific example of a water level prediction result obtained by the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention. In FIG. 10, since the water level when the danger lead time has elapsed from the current time predicted by the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention is equal to or higher than the dangerous water level, the evacuation information according to the first embodiment of the present invention. The distribution device 13 determines the risk level as “danger”.

  On the other hand, FIG. 11 is explanatory drawing which shows the specific example of the prediction result of the water level obtained by the evacuation information delivery apparatus 13 by the 1st Embodiment of this invention. In FIG. 11, since the water level at the risk lead time elapses from the current time predicted by the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention is lower than the dangerous water level, the evacuation information distribution according to the first embodiment of the present invention. The device 13 determines that the degree of risk is “normal”.

(Evacuation message processing)
FIG. 12 is a flowchart showing the flow of evacuation message processing performed by the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention. In FIG. 12, the acquisition unit 150 acquires the risk determination information (S502), and when the risk indicated by the acquired risk determination information is “normal” (S504 / YES), the evacuation information distribution device 13 End the evacuation message process. On the other hand, when the risk level indicated by the acquired risk level determination information is not “normal” (S504 / NO), the acquisition unit 150 acquires an evacuation message corresponding to the risk level from the evacuation message storage unit 140 (S506). For example, when the degree of danger indicated by the obtained degree-of-risk determination information is “danger”, the acquisition unit 150 determines from the evacuation message storage unit 140 that “the risk of flooding the XX river is high” according to “danger”. If you are a resident in the area, please evacuate to a high place or the nearest evacuation center. " Next, the acquisition unit 150 outputs the acquired evacuation message to the communication unit 160 (S508), and the communication unit 160 transmits the acquired evacuation message to an external device (S510). Specifically, the communication unit 160 transmits the acquired evacuation message to the evacuation information display device 5, the evacuation information broadcasting device 7, and the manager terminal 11.

[Description of effects]
As described above, in the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention, the time interval between the time point corresponding to the prediction result of the water level used for the risk determination and the current time is the time corresponding to the lead time. It is. On the other hand, in the evacuation information distribution apparatus according to the comparative example, the time interval between the time corresponding to the prediction result of the water level used for the risk determination and the current time is longer than the lead time. Therefore, in the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention, the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention compares the time point corresponding to the prediction result of the water level used for the risk determination in the evacuation information distribution apparatus according to the comparative example. The time interval corresponding to the prediction result of the water level used is smaller than the current time interval. In addition, the accuracy of the prediction result decreases as the time interval between the time corresponding to the prediction result of the water level and the current time increases. Therefore, compared with the evacuation information distribution apparatus according to the comparative example, the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention has a higher accuracy of the prediction result of the water level used for determining the risk. Specifically, in FIG. 11, there is a predicted water level that is equal to or higher than the critical water level among the predicted water levels corresponding to the time when the time equal to or longer than the lead time has elapsed from now, but the evacuation information distribution device according to the first embodiment of the present invention. No. 13 does not use the predicted water level with low prediction accuracy for determining the risk level. Therefore, according to the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention, it is possible to improve the reliability of the evacuation information. Furthermore, when evacuation information is distributed, it is possible to prevent so-called idling.

<4. Modification>
In the above description, the evacuation information distribution device 13 has described an example in which the risk level is determined using one type of lead time and a water level threshold. However, the evacuation information distribution device 13 uses a plurality of lead times and a water level threshold value to determine the risk level. May be determined. In the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the comparative example, the risk determination parameter storage unit 131 has a risk lead time, a risk water level, a caution lead time that is longer than the risk lead time, and a threshold value that is lower than the risk water level. Remember the water level. Further, the risk determination parameter storage unit 131 may store a larger number of lead times and water level thresholds. Hereinafter, with reference to FIG. 13, the flow of the risk determination process performed by the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the modification will be described.

  FIG. 13 is a flowchart illustrating the flow of the risk determination process performed by the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the modification. In FIG. 13, the risk determination processing unit 133 acquires predicted water level information from the acquisition unit 150 (S602), and acquires various determination parameters from the risk determination parameter storage unit 131 (S604). For example, the risk determination processing unit 133 acquires lead time information and water level threshold information. Specifically, the risk determination processing unit 133 sets the risk lead time to 30 [minutes], the caution lead time to 60 [minutes], the dangerous water level to 4.00 [m], and the caution water level to 3.20. [m] is acquired. Next, the risk determination unit 130 supplements the predicted water level information (S606).

  Next, when the water level when the danger lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is equal to or higher than the dangerous water level (S608 / YES), the danger level determination processing unit 133 determines the risk level as “danger” (S610). On the other hand, when the water level at the time when the dangerous lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is lower than the dangerous water level (S608 / NO), the process proceeds to the determination process of S612. Next, when the water level when the caution lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is equal to or higher than the dangerous water level (S612 / YES), the risk level determination processing unit 133 determines the risk level as “caution” (S614). On the other hand, if the water level at the time when the caution lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is lower than the dangerous water level (S612 / NO), the process proceeds to the determination process of S616. Next, when the water level when the danger lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is equal to or higher than the caution water level (S616 / YES), the risk level determination processing unit 133 determines the risk level as “caution” (S618). On the other hand, when the water level when the danger lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is lower than the caution water level (S616 / NO), the risk is determined as “normal” (S620). “Caution” is less dangerous than “danger”. Next, the risk determination processing unit 133 outputs the determined risk determination information to the acquisition unit 150 (S622). In the determination processing of S608, S612, and S616, if any parameter is not set, the processing proceeds to the next processing assuming that the condition is not satisfied. Hereinafter, specific examples of risk determination by the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the modification will be described with reference to FIGS. 14 to 17.

  FIG. 14 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a specific example of the prediction result of the water level obtained by the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the modification. In FIG. 14, since the water level when the danger lead time elapses from the current time predicted by the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the modification is equal to or higher than the danger water level, the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the modification has a risk level of “danger”. Is determined.

  FIG. 15 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a specific example of the prediction result of the water level obtained by the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the modification. In FIG. 15, the water level when the danger lead time elapses from the current time predicted by the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the modification is lower than the dangerous water level, and the water level when the caution lead time elapses from the predicted current time is equal to or higher than the dangerous water level. Therefore, the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the modification determines the danger level as “caution”.

  FIG. 16 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a specific example of the prediction result of the water level obtained by the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the modification. In FIG. 16, the water level when the danger lead time has elapsed since the current time predicted by the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the modification is lower than the dangerous water level, and the water level when the caution lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is lower than the dangerous water level. Since the water level when the danger lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is equal to or higher than the caution water level, the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the modification determines the danger level as “caution”.

  FIG. 17 is an explanatory diagram illustrating a specific example of the prediction result of the water level obtained by the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the modification. In FIG. 17, the water level when the danger lead time has elapsed from the current time predicted by the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the modification is lower than the dangerous water level, and the water level when the caution lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is lower than the dangerous water level. Since the water level at the time when the danger lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is lower than the caution water level, the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the modification determines that the degree of danger is “normal”.

  In addition, when the risk level of “caution” is determined in the risk level determination process in the evacuation message process, the acquisition unit 150 determines from the evacuation message storage unit 140 that the water level of the XX river is high according to the risk level of “caution”. If you are a resident in the area, please prepare for evacuation and pay attention to future information. ”, The communication unit 160 will send the message according to the risk level of“ caution ”to the outside. To the device.

  As described above, the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the modified example is configured so that, even when the water level at the time when the dangerous lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is lower than the dangerous water level, when the attention lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time. When the water level is higher than the dangerous water level, it is possible to prompt the local residents to call attention at a point earlier than the evacuation recommendation by determining “caution” that is less dangerous than “danger”.

  Further, the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the modified example is careful about the water level when the dangerous lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time even when the water level when the dangerous lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is lower than the dangerous water level. When the level is higher than the water level, it is possible to notify the local residents in more detail about the degree of danger that is predicted by determining “caution” that is less dangerous than “danger”.

  In the above, an example in which the evacuation information distribution device 13 determines the risk level using two types of lead times and water level threshold values has been described. However, the evacuation information distribution device 13 uses a larger number of lead times and water level threshold values. The risk level may be determined. For example, the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 determines the risk level by further using the risk lead time for the supporter who needs assistance and the caution lead time for the supporter who needs assistance according to the time required for the evacuation of the person who needs assistance. By further using the evacuation message corresponding to the lead time and the caution lead time for the person requiring support, the evacuation information can be notified to the vulnerable person at an appropriate timing. In addition, the evacuation information distribution device 13 can notify the local residents of the degree of danger predicted in more detail by determining the degree of danger by further using a plurality of water level thresholds.

<5. Evacuation Information Distribution Device According to Second Embodiment>
Next, the evacuation information distribution device 23 according to the second embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS.

[Constitution]
FIG. 18 is an explanatory diagram showing the configuration of the evacuation information distribution device 23 according to the second embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 18, the evacuation information distribution device 23 according to the second embodiment of the present invention includes a sensor data storage unit 210, a water level probability distribution prediction unit 220, a risk determination unit 230, and an evacuation message storage unit. 240, an acquisition unit 250, and a communication unit 260.

  The sensor data storage unit 210, the evacuation message storage unit 240, the acquisition unit 250, and the communication unit 260 in the evacuation information distribution device 23 according to the second embodiment of the present invention are evacuated according to the first embodiment of the present invention. Since the sensor data storage unit 110, the evacuation message storage unit 140, the acquisition unit 150, and the communication unit 160 in the information distribution device 13 are substantially the same, description thereof is omitted.

  The water level probability distribution prediction unit 220 includes a water level prediction parameter storage unit 221, a water level prediction variable storage unit 223, and a water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225.

  The water level prediction parameter storage unit 221 stores parameters used for water level prediction. For example, the water level prediction parameter storage unit 221 uses the outflow coefficient of the outflow holes of the first to third tanks in the three-stage tank model and the infiltration of the infiltration outflow holes of the first to third stages of the tank in the three-stage tank model. The coefficient, the height of each of the first to third tanks in the three-stage tank model, the basin area corresponding to the target point, and the first and second coefficients in the HQ equation are stored.

  The water level prediction variable storage unit 223 stores variables used for water level prediction. For example, the water level prediction variable storage unit 223 stores the storage height of each of the first to third tanks in the three-stage tank model and the calculation time in the three-stage tank model.

  The water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 controls the overall operation of the water level probability distribution prediction unit 220. For example, the water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 calculates the probability distribution of the predicted water level. Specifically, the water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 calculates an upper limit value and a lower limit value of the predicted water level at the target point, and calculates a probability distribution of the predicted water level at the target point from the calculated upper limit value and lower limit value of the predicted water level. calculate. More specifically, first, the water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 uses the upper limit value in the prediction width of the rain prediction information having the prediction width obtained by the rain prediction service 9 as the rain prediction information, The upper limit value of the predicted water level at the target point is calculated using the tank model and the HQ equation. Next, the water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 uses the lower limit value in the prediction width of the rainfall prediction information having the prediction width obtained by the rain prediction service 9 as the rainfall prediction information, and uses the tank model and the HQ formula. To calculate the lower limit of the predicted water level at the target point. Here, in the calculation of the predicted water level, the water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 may calculate the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the predicted water level using the correction coefficient.

  Note that the method for calculating the predicted water level at the target point is not limited to the method using the tank model, and the water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 may calculate the predicted water level by other known methods. For example, the water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 may calculate the predicted water level using a known outflow model such as a rational formula, unit projection, or storage function method. In addition, the water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 outputs the predicted water level information to the acquisition unit 250. The method for calculating the predicted water level using the tank model and the HQ equation is substantially the same as the method described in the description of the flow of the water level prediction process performed by the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention. Therefore, the description is omitted.

  The risk determination unit 230 includes a risk determination parameter storage unit 231 and a risk determination processing unit 233.

  The risk determination parameter storage unit 231 stores various determination parameters used for risk determination. For example, the risk determination parameter storage unit 231 stores lead time information, water level threshold information, and evacuation information distribution accuracy information. Specifically, the risk determination parameter storage unit 231 may store the time corresponding to the distance from the point where the water level is predicted to the nearest shelter as the lead time, and indicates the flooding water level at the target point. You may memorize | store a dangerous water level as a water level threshold value. The risk determination parameter storage unit 231 may store a plurality of lead time information, a plurality of water level threshold information, and a plurality of evacuation information distribution accuracy information.

  The risk determination processing unit 233 controls the overall operation of the risk determination unit 230. For example, the risk determination processing unit 233 determines the risk according to the probability distribution of the predicted water level obtained when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the water level probability distribution prediction unit 220. Specifically, the risk determination processing unit 233 responds to the probability that the water level is equal to or higher than the first threshold in the probability distribution of the predicted water level obtained when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the water level probability distribution prediction unit 220. Determine the risk level. More specifically, the risk determination processing unit 233 sets the probability that the water level is equal to or higher than the first threshold in the probability distribution of the predicted water level obtained when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the water level probability distribution prediction unit 220. In accordance with the risk level determination, the probability that the water level is equal to or higher than the second threshold lower than the first threshold in the probability distribution of the predicted water level obtained when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the water level probability distribution prediction unit 220 The risk is determined according to

  The risk determination processing unit 233 may determine the risk using the first threshold value indicating the flood occurrence water level at the target point, and the lead time from the current time obtained by the water level probability distribution prediction unit 220 and the current time. The degree of risk may be determined according to the probability distribution of the predicted water level between the elapsed time points. In the risk determination, the risk determination processing unit 233 may apply a time corresponding to the distance from the point where the water level is predicted to the nearest shelter as the lead time. In addition, the risk determination processing unit 233 outputs the risk determination information to the acquisition unit 250.

[Operation]
The configuration of the evacuation information distribution device 23 according to the second embodiment has been described above. Next, the operation of the evacuation information distribution device 23 according to the second embodiment will be described.

  In the operation of the evacuation information distribution apparatus 23 according to the second embodiment of the present invention, the processes other than the water level prediction process and the risk determination process are substantially the same as the operation of the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention. Since it is the same, description is abbreviate | omitted.

  FIG. 19 is a flowchart showing the flow of a water level prediction process performed by the evacuation information distribution device 23 according to the second embodiment of the present invention. In FIG. 19, processing other than calculation of predicted water level probability distribution (S712) and output of predicted water level probability distribution information (S714) in the water level prediction processing performed by water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 is the first of the present invention. Since it is substantially the same as the process performed by the water level prediction processing unit 125 described in the description of the flow of the water level prediction process performed by the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the embodiment, the description thereof is omitted. In addition, as shown in FIG. 19, in the flow of the water level prediction process performed by the evacuation information distribution apparatus 23 according to the second embodiment of the present invention, the water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 does not correct the rainfall prediction information.

  The water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 calculates the probability distribution of the predicted water level (S712). Specifically, the water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 calculates an upper limit value and a lower limit value of the predicted water level at the target point, and calculates a probability distribution of the predicted water level at the target point from the calculated upper limit value and lower limit value of the predicted water level. calculate. More specifically, first, the water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 uses the upper limit value in the prediction width of the rain prediction information having the prediction width obtained by the rain prediction service 9 as the rain prediction information, The upper limit value of the predicted water level at the target point is calculated using the tank model and the HQ equation. Next, the water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 uses the lower limit value in the prediction width of the rainfall prediction information having the prediction width obtained by the rain prediction service 9 as the rainfall prediction information, and uses the tank model and the HQ formula. To calculate the lower limit of the predicted water level at the target point. The method for calculating the predicted water level using the tank model and the HQ equation is substantially the same as the method described in the description of the flow of the water level prediction process performed by the evacuation information distribution device 13 according to the first embodiment of the present invention. Therefore, the description is omitted.

  Next, the water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 calculates the probability distribution of the predicted water level at the target point on the assumption that the calculated upper limit value and lower limit value of the predicted water level follow a specific probability distribution. For example, the water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 calculates the probability distribution of the predicted water level at the target point, assuming that the calculated upper limit value and lower limit value of the predicted water level form the upper limit value and the lower limit value of the 95% confidence interval of the normal distribution. calculate. Next, the water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 225 outputs the calculated probability distribution information of the predicted water level at the target point to the acquisition unit 250 (S414).

  FIG. 20 is a flowchart illustrating the flow of the risk determination process performed by the evacuation information distribution apparatus according to the second embodiment of the present invention. 20, the risk determination processing unit 233 acquires the probability distribution information of the predicted water level from the acquisition unit 250 (S802), and acquires various determination parameters from the risk determination parameter storage unit 231 (S804). For example, the risk determination processing unit 233 acquires lead time information, water level threshold information, and evacuation information distribution accuracy information from the risk determination parameter storage unit 231. Specifically, the risk determination unit 230 sets the risk lead time to 30 [minutes], the caution lead time to 60 [minutes], the dangerous water level to 4.00 [m], and the caution water level to 3.20 [m]. m] is acquired as 70% as the evacuation information distribution accuracy. Note that the caution lead time is longer than the danger lead time, and the caution water level is a threshold lower than the danger water level. A plurality of evacuation information delivery accuracy may be set according to the lead time information and the water level threshold information. Next, the risk determination processing unit 233 supplements the probability distribution information of the predicted water level (S806).

  Next, in the probability distribution of the predicted water level when the danger lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time, the risk determination processing unit 233 determines that the probability that the water level is equal to or higher than the dangerous water level is greater than or equal to the evacuation information distribution accuracy (S808 / YES). ), The degree of danger is determined as “danger” (S810). On the other hand, in the probability distribution of the predicted water level when the danger lead time elapses from the predicted current time, if the probability that the water level is equal to or higher than the dangerous water level is lower than the evacuation information distribution accuracy (NO in S808), the process proceeds to the determination process in S812. Next, in the probability distribution of the predicted water level when the caution lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time, the risk determination processing unit 233 determines that the probability that the water level is equal to or higher than the dangerous water level is equal to or higher than the evacuation information distribution accuracy (S812 / YES), the risk is determined as “caution” (S814). On the other hand, in the probability distribution of the predicted water level when the attention lead time elapses from the predicted current time, if the probability that the water level is equal to or higher than the dangerous water level is lower than the evacuation information distribution accuracy (S812 / NO), the process proceeds to the determination process of S816. Next, in the probability distribution of the predicted water level when the risk lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time, the risk determination processing unit 233 determines that the probability that the water level is equal to or higher than the dangerous water level is equal to or higher than the evacuation information distribution accuracy (S816 / YES), the degree of danger is determined as “caution” (S818). On the other hand, in the probability distribution of the predicted water level when the danger lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time, when the probability that the water level is equal to or higher than the dangerous water level is lower than the evacuation information distribution accuracy (S816 / NO), the risk level is “normal”. Determine (S820). “Caution” is less dangerous than “danger”. In the determination processing of S808, S812, and S816, if any parameter is not set, the processing proceeds to the next processing assuming that the condition is not satisfied. Next, the risk determination processing unit 233 outputs the determined risk determination information to the acquisition unit 250 (S822). Hereinafter, a specific example of risk determination by the evacuation information distribution device 23 according to the second embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. 21 and 22.

  FIG. 21 is an explanatory diagram showing a specific example of the probability distribution of the predicted water level when the dangerous lead time has elapsed from the present time obtained by the evacuation information distribution device according to the second embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 21 shows a graph displaying the probability distribution of the water level with the horizontal axis as the water level and the vertical axis as the probability. Further, the water level probability distribution illustrated in FIG. 21 is a water level probability distribution when the dangerous lead time has elapsed from the current time predicted by the water level probability distribution prediction unit 220.

  In the probability distribution of the water level when the danger lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time, if the probability that the water level is greater than or equal to the dangerous water level is greater than or equal to the accuracy of evacuation information delivery, the risk determination unit 230 sets the risk to “danger” in S808. Is determined. For example, in the probability distribution of the predicted water level, the probability that the water level is greater than or equal to the dangerous water level is the ratio of the hatched area to the area formed by the probability distribution curve and the water level axis in FIG. In addition, the risk determination unit 230 determines the risk as “danger”.

  In FIG. 21, the line A indicating the critical water level is located to the left of the line B indicating the area range of 70% with respect to the area formed by the probability distribution curve and the water level axis. The area ratio of the hatched portion is 70% or more. Accordingly, when the acquired evacuation information distribution accuracy is 70%, the risk determination unit 230 evacuates the probability that the water level is higher than or equal to the risk water level in the probability distribution of the predicted water level when the danger lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time. Since it is above the information distribution accuracy, the risk level is determined as “danger”.

  FIG. 22 is an explanatory diagram showing a specific example of the probability distribution of the predicted water level when the dangerous lead time has elapsed from the present time obtained by the evacuation information distribution device according to the second embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 22 shows the probability distribution of the water level when the dangerous lead time has elapsed from the current time predicted by the water level probability distribution prediction unit 220, as in FIG.

  In FIG. 22, the line C indicating the critical water level is located to the right of the line D indicating the area range of 70% with respect to the area formed by the probability distribution curve and the water level axis. The ratio of the hatched area is lower than 70%. Further, since the line C indicating the critical water level is located to the left of the line E indicating the area range of 10% with respect to the area formed by the probability distribution curve and the water level axis, the hatched portion with respect to the area formed by the probability distribution curve and the water level axis The area ratio is 10% or more. Accordingly, when the acquired evacuation information distribution accuracy is 70%, the risk determination unit 230 evacuates the probability that the water level is higher than or equal to the risk water level in the probability distribution of the predicted water level when the danger lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time. Since it is lower than the information distribution accuracy, the risk level is not determined as “danger”. On the other hand, when the acquired evacuation information distribution accuracy is 10%, the risk determination unit 230 evacuates the probability that the water level is higher than or equal to the risk water level in the probability distribution of the predicted water level when the danger lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time. Since it is above the information distribution accuracy, the risk level is determined as “danger”.

[Description of effects]
As described above, the evacuation information distribution device 23 according to the second embodiment of the present invention notifies the evacuation information only when the possibility of an actual disaster is high by setting the evacuation information distribution accuracy high. can do. Therefore, it is possible to improve the reliability of evacuation information. Further, the evacuation information distribution device 23 according to the second embodiment of the present invention can adjust the reliability and completeness of the evacuation information by appropriately changing the evacuation information distribution accuracy.

<6. Conclusion>
As described above, according to the embodiment of the present invention, by reducing the time interval between the time point corresponding to the prediction result of the water level used for the risk determination and the current time, the water level used for the risk determination can be reduced. The accuracy of the prediction result can be improved. Therefore, it is possible to improve the reliability of evacuation information. As a result, when evacuation information is distributed, it is possible to prevent so-called idling.

  Further, according to the embodiment of the present invention, the risk level is determined by using a plurality of lead times and water level thresholds, so that the water level at the time when the risk lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is lower than the dangerous water level. In addition, when the water level at the time when the caution lead time elapses from the predicted current time is equal to or higher than the dangerous water level, it can be determined that “caution” has a lower risk level than “danger”. Therefore, it is possible to call attention to local residents at an earlier time than the evacuation advisory. Moreover, according to the embodiment of the present invention, the risk level is determined by using a plurality of lead times and water level thresholds, so that the water level when the risk lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is lower than the dangerous water level. However, when the water level when the danger lead time has elapsed from the predicted current time is equal to or higher than the caution water level, it can be determined that the caution is lower than the “danger”. Therefore, it is possible to notify the local residents in more detail about the degree of danger that is predicted.

  Furthermore, according to the embodiment of the present invention, by setting the evacuation information distribution accuracy to be high in the risk determination using the probability distribution of the predicted water level, the evacuation information is only used when there is a high possibility that an actual disaster will occur. Can be notified. Therefore, it is possible to improve the reliability of evacuation information. In addition, according to the embodiment of the present invention, it is possible to adjust the reliability and completeness of the evacuation information by appropriately changing the evacuation information distribution accuracy.

  Although the preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, the present invention is not limited to such examples. It is obvious that a person having ordinary knowledge in the technical field to which the present invention pertains can come up with various changes or modifications within the scope of the technical idea described in the claims. Of course, it is understood that these also belong to the technical scope of the present invention.

  For example, each step in the processing of the evacuation information distribution apparatuses 13 and 23 in the present specification does not necessarily have to be processed in time series in the order described as a flowchart. For example, each step in the processing of the evacuation information distribution devices 13 and 23 may be processed in an order different from the order described as the flowchart, or may be processed in parallel. For example, in the flow of the water level prediction process performed by the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the first embodiment shown in FIG. 7, the present invention is not limited to the order of each step. For example, acquisition of parameters and variables ( S312) may be before the acquisition of rainfall prediction information (S308) or before the acquisition of the latest rainfall information and the latest water level information (S302). In the present invention, the order of each step is not limited to the present embodiment in the risk determination process performed by the evacuation information distribution apparatus 13 according to the first embodiment shown in FIG. S404) may be before the acquisition of predicted water level information (S402).

  It is also possible to create a computer program for causing hardware such as the CPU, ROM, and RAM incorporated in the evacuation information distribution devices 13 and 23 to perform the same functions as the components of the evacuation information distribution devices 13 and 23 described above. It is. A storage medium storing the computer program is also provided.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Rain amount sensor 3 Water level sensor 5 Evacuation information display apparatus 7 Evacuation information broadcasting apparatus 9 Rain amount prediction service 11 Administrator terminal 13, 23 Evacuation information distribution apparatus 15 Communication network 110 Sensor data storage part 120 Water level prediction part 121 Water level prediction parameter storage part 123 Water level prediction variable storage unit 125 Water level prediction processing unit 130 Risk determination unit 131 Risk determination parameter storage unit 133 Risk determination processing unit 140 Evacuation message storage unit 150 Acquisition unit 160 Communication unit 210 Sensor data storage unit 220 Water level probability distribution prediction unit 221 Water level prediction parameter storage unit 223 Water level prediction variable storage unit 225 Water level probability distribution prediction processing unit 230 Risk determination unit 231 Risk determination parameter storage unit 233 Risk determination processing unit 240 Evacuation message storage unit 250 Acquisition unit 260 Communication unit

JP 2011-113185 A

Claims (15)

A prediction unit for predicting the water level of the target point;
A determination unit that determines the degree of risk according to a prediction result related to the water level at the time when a lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit;
An acquisition unit for acquiring evacuation information corresponding to the degree of risk determined by the determination unit;
An information processing apparatus comprising:   The determination unit, when the water level at the time when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit is greater than or equal to a first threshold, the time at which the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit The information processing apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the risk level is determined to be higher than that when the water level is lower than the first threshold. The first threshold is higher than the second threshold,
When the water level at the time when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit is equal to or greater than the first threshold, the determination unit is configured to determine the time at which the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit. It is determined that the degree of risk is higher than when the water level is lower than the first threshold and equal to or higher than the second threshold, and the water level at the time when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit is higher than the first threshold. The determination is made that the degree of risk is higher than when the water level is lower than the second threshold when the lead time elapses from the current time obtained by the prediction unit when it is lower than the second threshold. The information processing apparatus described. The prediction unit predicts a probability distribution of the water level,
The determination unit determines the risk according to the probability distribution at the time when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit,
The information processing apparatus according to claim 1.   5. The determination unit according to claim 4, wherein the determination unit determines the degree of risk according to a probability that the water level is equal to or higher than a first threshold in the probability distribution at a time when a lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit. Information processing device. The first threshold is higher than the second threshold,
The determination unit further determines a degree of risk according to a probability that the water level is equal to or higher than the second threshold in the probability distribution obtained when the lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit. 5. The information processing apparatus according to 5.   The determination unit includes a prediction result relating to the water level at the time when the first lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit, and a time at which the second lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit. The information processing apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the degree of risk is determined according to a prediction result related to the water level.   The determination unit obtains the water level at a second time when a second lead time longer than the first lead time from the current time obtained by the prediction unit is equal to or greater than a first threshold and is obtained by the prediction unit. When the water level at the first time point when the first lead time has elapsed from the current time is smaller than the first threshold value, the water level at the second time point obtained by the prediction unit is smaller than the first threshold value and the prediction The information processing apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the risk level is determined to be higher than a case where the water level at the first time point obtained by the unit is smaller than a first threshold value.   The information processing apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the prediction unit predicts a water level of a river.   The information processing apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the determination unit determines the degree of risk using a first threshold value indicating a flooding water level at the target point.   The information processing apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the prediction unit predicts the water level using a tank model.   The information processing apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 11, wherein the lead time is a time corresponding to a distance from a point where the water level is predicted to a nearest refuge.   The said determination part further determines a risk according to the prediction result regarding the said water level between the present time obtained by the said prediction part, and the time when lead time passed from the present time, either. The information processing apparatus according to item 1. Predicting the water level at the point of interest;
Determining the degree of risk according to the prediction result regarding the water level at the time when the lead time has elapsed from the obtained current time;
Obtaining evacuation information according to the determined degree of risk;
An information processing method including: An information processing device;
A rainfall information acquisition unit that acquires rainfall information and transmits the rainfall information to the information processing apparatus;
A water level information acquisition unit that acquires water level information of a target point and transmits the water level information to the information processing device;
An evacuation information notification device;
An information processing system comprising:
The information processing apparatus includes:
A prediction unit that predicts the water level of the target point from the rainfall information and the water level information;
A determination unit that determines the degree of risk according to a prediction result related to the water level at the time when a lead time has elapsed from the current time obtained by the prediction unit;
An acquisition unit that acquires evacuation information according to the degree of risk determined by the determination unit,
The evacuation information notification device
Informing the evacuation information received from the information processing device,
Information processing system.

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