JP2016033704A - Income summary prediction device and income summary prediction program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To accurately predict an income summary in an object period since a past start point until a future finish point.SOLUTION: An income summary prediction device 200 calculates, about a predetermined initial cost item, an actual initial cost track record value which is an initial cost generated in a past period, based on track record information which indicates a track record of a business of the past period since a start point until a processing point; and calculates an actual initial cost prediction value which is estimated to be generated in a future period, based on plan information which indicates a plan of a business in the future period since the processing point until a finish point. In addition, the income summary prediction device 200 calculates a reference initial cost in the object period, based on a reference initial cost about the predetermined initial cost item, and calculates initial cost difference about the predetermined initial cost item in the object period, based on the actual initial cost track record value, the actual initial cost prediction value, and the reference initial cost. Then the income summary prediction device 200 uses the calculated initial cost difference for calculating an income summary prediction value in the object period.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The present invention relates to a technique for predicting profit and loss in a target period from a past start time to a future end time.

  The accounting data is a summary of past performance in business activities such as sales, purchasing, and manufacturing. In a core system for companies (hereinafter referred to as ERP), profits and losses by company and business are calculated from accounting data. Therefore, the profit and loss provided by ERP is the profit and loss in the past performance. For example, the profit and loss of the target month provided by ERP during the month is the profit and loss in the past performance from the beginning of the month to the date before the processing date, and does not include the predicted value of future profit or loss from the processing date to the end of the month.

  In ERP, in a monthly closing process performed at the beginning of the next month, a cost difference such as a manufacturing cost of the target month is calculated. Therefore, the profit and loss for the target month provided by ERP during the target month is calculated from the sales from the beginning of the month to the processing date and the cost from the beginning of the month to the processing date calculated based on the standard price. . In other words, the profit and loss provided during the month by ERP includes an error for the cost difference.

JP 2004-021364 A

In the management of companies, various management decisions are made according to the prospects for future profits and losses. If management mistakes are made, business results will deteriorate. As a result, management needs to get as accurate a profit and loss outlook as possible. Also, if management decisions are delayed, measures will be delayed. As a result, management needs to obtain a profit and loss outlook as soon as possible.
However, the profit and loss provided during the month by ERP is the profit and loss in the past performance, and the profit and loss at the end of the month is not known until the end of the month. In addition, since the profit / loss provided by ERP during the month includes an error for cost difference, even if the profit / loss at the end of the month is simply predicted from the profit / loss provided during the month by ERP, the corresponding error is included. Will be.
An object of the present invention is to accurately predict profits and losses in a target period from a past start time to a future end time.

The profit and loss forecasting apparatus according to the present invention is:
It is a profit and loss forecasting device that forecasts profit and loss for the target period from the past start time to the future end time,
An information acquisition unit that acquires business information including results of business in the past period from the start time to the processing time, and plan information including a plan of business in the future period from the processing time to the end time;
From the business information acquired by the information acquisition unit, the actual cost predicted to occur in the target period and the standard cost in the target period are calculated for the predetermined cost item, and the actual cost and the standard cost are calculated. A cost difference calculation unit that calculates a difference between the cost difference as a cost difference in the target period for the predetermined cost item,
And a profit / loss calculation section for calculating a profit / loss forecast value for the target period using the cost difference calculated by the cost difference calculation section.

The performance information is sales performance information delivered in the past period, and includes sales performance information having a selling price and a sales quantity,
The plan information is sales schedule information including a delivery date in the future period, and includes sales schedule information having a selling price and a sales quantity,
The profit and loss forecasting device further includes:
The sales price in the past period is calculated by multiplying the sales price of the sales performance information by the sales quantity, and the sales forecast value in the future period is calculated by multiplying the sales price in the sales schedule information by the sales quantity. And a sales calculation unit for calculating the sales by adding the actual sales value and the predicted sales value,
The profit / loss forecasting apparatus calculates the profit / loss forecast value by using the sales calculated by the sales calculation unit.

The performance information is sales performance information delivered in the past period, and includes sales performance information having identification information and sales quantity of the sales product,
The plan information includes sales schedule information that includes a delivery date in the future period, and includes sales schedule information having identification information and a sales quantity of a product to be sold,
The profit and loss forecasting device further includes:
The sales price specified in the sales schedule information is calculated by multiplying the standard price of the sales product specified from the identification information included in the sales performance information by the sales quantity to calculate the cost actual value in the past period, and the sales specified from the identification information included in the sales schedule information. A cost calculation unit for calculating a cost forecast value in the future period by multiplying the standard cost of the product by the sales quantity, and calculating the cost by adding the actual cost value and the cost forecast value;
The profit / loss forecasting apparatus calculates the profit / loss forecast value by using the cost calculated by the cost calculation unit.

The track record information includes purchase track record information that has been delivered in the past period, and includes track record items having a purchase item, a purchase price, and a purchase quantity.
The plan information includes order information that includes a delivery date in the future period, and includes order information including an order item, an order purchase price, and an order quantity.
The cost difference calculation unit
The purchase standard cost actual value is calculated by multiplying the standard price of the purchased item included in the purchase actual information by the purchase quantity, and the purchase is performed by multiplying the standard price of the ordered item included in the order information by the ordered quantity. A purchase standard cost calculation unit that calculates a standard cost forecast value and calculates the purchase standard cost by adding the purchase standard cost actual value and the purchase standard cost forecast value;
The purchase actual cost actual value is calculated by multiplying the purchase purchase price included in the purchase record information by the purchase quantity, and the purchase actual cost forecast value is calculated by multiplying the order purchase price included in the order information by the order quantity. A purchase actual cost calculation unit for calculating the purchase actual cost by adding the actual purchase cost actual value and the estimated purchase actual cost value;
A purchase price difference calculation unit for calculating a purchase price difference that is a difference between the purchase standard cost and the purchase actual cost;
The profit / loss calculation unit calculates the profit / loss forecast value from a cost difference including the purchase price difference.

The track record information includes work completed information in which work has been performed in the past period, and includes work completed information having a work item and an actual work time,
The plan information includes work schedule information scheduled to be worked in the future period, work schedule information having work items and work schedule time, and expense budget information indicating a production expense budget in the target period. And include
The cost difference calculation unit
The recovery standard cost actual value is calculated by multiplying the scheduled charge for the work item included in the work completed information by the actual work time, and the scheduled charge for the work item included in the work schedule information is multiplied by the scheduled work time. A recovery standard cost calculation unit that calculates a standard cost forecast value and calculates a recovery standard cost by adding the recovery standard cost actual value and the recovery standard cost prediction value;
A recovery actual cost calculation unit which uses the manufacturing cost budget as a recovery actual cost;
A recovery difference calculation unit for calculating a recovery difference that is a difference between the recovery standard cost and the actual recovery cost;
The profit / loss calculation unit calculates the profit / loss forecast value from a cost difference including the recovery difference.

The track record information includes work completed information in which work has been performed in the past period, and includes work completed information having a manufactured item, a manufactured quantity, and a manufacturing cost.
The plan information includes work schedule information that is scheduled to be performed in the future period, and includes work schedule information having a production item and a production schedule quantity.
The cost difference calculation unit
For each manufactured item, a reference value storage unit that stores a reference value indicating the ratio of the actual cost to the standard cost for the manufacturing cost in the past performance,
The manufacturing standard cost actual value is calculated by multiplying the standard cost of the manufactured item included in the work completed information by the manufacturing quantity, and the manufacturing standard is calculated by multiplying the standard cost of the manufactured item included in the work schedule information by the planned manufacturing quantity. A manufacturing standard cost calculation unit for calculating a cost forecast value and calculating the production standard cost by adding the production standard cost actual value and the production standard cost forecast value;
The manufacturing cost of the work completed information is the actual manufacturing cost actual value, the standard cost of the manufacturing item of the work schedule information is multiplied by the scheduled production quantity, and the reference value storage unit stores the manufacturing item A manufacturing actual cost calculation unit that calculates a manufacturing actual cost forecast value by multiplying a reference value, and adds the actual manufacturing cost actual value and the manufacturing actual cost prediction value to calculate a manufacturing actual cost;
A manufacturing cost difference calculation unit for calculating a manufacturing cost difference which is a difference between the manufacturing standard cost and the actual manufacturing cost;
The profit / loss calculation unit calculates the profit / loss forecast value from a cost difference including the manufacturing cost difference.

The profit and loss forecasting device further includes:
A correction information input unit that receives input of correction information for correcting the plan information;
The cost difference calculation unit recalculates the cost difference for the predetermined cost item using the plan information corrected by the correction information received by the correction information input unit,
The profit / loss calculation unit recalculates the profit / loss forecast value in the target period using the cost difference calculated by the cost difference calculation unit.

The profit and loss prediction program according to the present invention is:
A profit / loss forecasting program that forecasts profit / loss for the target period from the start of the past to the end of the future,
Information acquisition processing for acquiring business information including results of business in the past period from the start time to the processing time, and plan information including a plan of business in the future period from the processing time to the end time;
From the business information acquired in the information acquisition process, the actual cost predicted to occur in the target period and the standard cost in the target period are calculated for the predetermined cost item, and the actual cost and the standard cost are calculated. A cost difference calculation process for calculating a difference between and as a cost difference in the target period for the predetermined cost item;
Using the cost difference calculated in the cost difference calculation process, the computer executes a profit / loss calculation process for calculating a profit / loss forecast value in the target period.

  In the profit / loss prediction apparatus according to the present invention, the cost difference in the target period is predicted based on the actual information and the plan information, and the profit / loss is predicted using the predicted cost difference. Thereby, it is possible to predict the profit and loss of the target period with high accuracy.

1 is a schematic explanatory diagram of a profit / loss prediction system 10 according to Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the profit-and-loss prediction apparatus 200 which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. Explanatory drawing of the process of the sales calculation part 220 which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. Explanatory drawing of the process of the cost calculation part 230 which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the cost difference calculation part 240 which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. Explanatory drawing of the process of the purchase price difference process part 241 which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. Explanatory drawing of the process of the collection | recovery difference process part 242 which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. Explanatory drawing of the process of the manufacturing cost difference process part 243 which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. The block diagram of the profit-and-loss prediction apparatus 200 which concerns on Embodiment 2. FIG. The figure which shows the example of the hardware constitutions of the profit-and-loss prediction apparatus 200 shown in Embodiment 1,2.

Embodiment 1 FIG.
FIG. 1 is a schematic explanatory diagram of a profit / loss prediction system 10 according to the first embodiment.
The profit / loss prediction system 10 predicts profit / loss for the target period from the past start time to the future end time. Here, a case where the processing date is July 8 and the target period is July (from the start time point July 1 to the end time point July 31), the profit / loss for July is predicted as an example. .

The profit / loss prediction system 10 includes an ERP 100 and a profit / loss prediction apparatus 200. The ERP 100 and the profit / loss prediction device 200 are connected via a network such as a LAN (Local Area Network).
The ERP 100 has business performance information and plan information. The performance information is accounting data, and the performance information includes actual performance information such as sales performance information, purchase performance information, work performance information, production performance information, and expense performance information. ing. The plan information includes sales plan information (forecast), backlog information, procurement plan information, work schedule information, order information, manufacturing in-process information, inventory information, expense budget information, and the like.
The profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 acquires the performance information and the plan information from the ERP 100 and predicts the profit / loss for the target period on the processing date. That is, here, the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 predicts profit / loss for July as of July 8th.

FIG. 2 is a configuration diagram of the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 according to the first embodiment.
The profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 includes an information acquisition unit 210, a sales calculation unit 220, a cost calculation unit 230, a cost difference calculation unit 240, a profit / loss calculation unit 250, an output unit 260, and a standard cost storage unit 270. .

  The information acquisition unit 210 acquires business information that is performance information and plan information from the ERP 100 via the network. In particular, the information acquisition unit 210, from the ERP 100, results information including results in the past period from the start time (July 1 here) to the day before the processing date (July 8 here) and the processing date Plan information including a plan in the future period up to the time point (here, July 31) is acquired.

The sales calculation unit 220 calculates the sales result value in the past period based on the result information acquired by the information acquisition unit 210. Further, the sales calculation unit 220 calculates a sales forecast value in the future period based on the plan information acquired by the information acquisition unit 210.
The sales calculation unit 220 calculates the sales for the target period by adding the actual sales value and the predicted sales value.

The cost calculation unit 230 calculates the actual cost value in the past period based on the actual information acquired by the information acquisition unit 210 and the standard cost. In addition, the cost calculation unit 230 calculates a cost prediction value in the future period based on the plan information acquired by the information acquisition unit 210 and the standard cost.
The cost calculation unit 230 adds the actual cost value and the cost prediction value to calculate the cost for the target period.

The cost difference calculation unit 240 calculates, for each cost item of a plurality of cost items, the actual cost that is expected to occur in the target period from the actual information and plan information acquired by the information acquisition unit 210. Moreover, the cost difference calculation part 240 calculates the standard price in an object period about each cost item.
For each cost item, the cost difference calculation unit 240 subtracts the standard cost from the actual cost and calculates the cost difference for that cost item in the target period.

  The profit / loss calculation unit 250 subtracts the cost calculated by the cost calculation unit 230 from the sales calculated by the sales calculation unit 220, and further subtracts the cost difference for each cost item calculated by the cost difference calculation unit 240. Calculate the profit and loss forecast value for the target period.

  The output unit 260 outputs the profit / loss prediction value calculated by the profit / loss calculation unit 250 by, for example, displaying it on a display device. In addition, the output unit 260 calculates the actual sales value, the predicted sales value, and the sales calculated by the sales calculation unit 220, the actual cost value, the predicted cost, and the cost calculated by the cost calculation unit 230, and the cost difference calculation unit 240 calculates. The actual cost, standard cost and cost difference for each cost item are output.

  The standard cost storage unit 270 is a storage device that stores a standard cost per unit quantity for each item such as products, materials, and parts, and stores a scheduled charge per unit time for each item of work. The scheduled charge is a planned amount (processing cost) required per unit time for production activities in a process or line.

FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram of processing of the sales calculation unit 220 according to the first embodiment.
The sales calculation unit 220 uses the sales result information of the products delivered in the past period as the result information. The sales performance information includes product identification information, sales price, sales quantity, and other attribute information (sold business division, sales destination, etc.). Moreover, the sales calculation part 220 uses the sales schedule information in which a delivery date is included in a future period as plan information. The sales schedule information includes the identification information of the sales product, the selling price, the sales quantity, and other attribute information. Here, the sales schedule information includes backorder information that has already been ordered but has not been delivered, and sales plan information that has not been ordered but is planned to be sold.

The sales calculation unit 220 calculates the sales performance value in the past period by multiplying the sales price included in the sales performance information by the sales quantity. In addition, the sales calculation unit 220 calculates the sales forecast value in the future period by multiplying the sales price of the sales schedule information by the sales quantity.
The sales calculation unit 220 calculates the sales for the target period by adding the actual sales value and the predicted sales value.

FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram of processing of the cost calculation unit 230 according to the first embodiment.
As with the sales calculation unit 220, the cost calculation unit 230 uses the sales result information delivered in the past period as the result information, and the sales schedule information including the delivery date in the future period as the plan information.

The cost calculation unit 230 searches the standard cost storage unit 270 based on the sales product identification information included in the sales performance information, and specifies the standard cost of the sales product. Then, the cost calculation unit 230 calculates the actual cost value in the past period by multiplying the standard price of the sold product by the sales quantity of the sales result information. Further, the cost calculation unit 230 searches the standard cost storage unit 270 based on the sales product identification information included in the sales schedule information, and specifies the standard cost of the sales product. Then, the cost calculation unit 230 calculates the cost prediction value in the future period by multiplying the standard price of the sales product by the sales quantity of the sales schedule information.
The cost calculation unit 230 adds the actual cost value and the cost prediction value to calculate the cost for the target period.

The process of the cost difference calculation unit 240 will be described.
There are many types of cost variances. Here, in general, in the case of comprehensive cost calculation (in the case of mass production in accordance with a production plan, not on order production), a purchase price difference, a recovery difference, and a manufacturing cost difference that greatly affect the cost will be described.

FIG. 5 is a configuration diagram of the cost difference calculation unit 240 according to the first embodiment.
The cost difference calculation unit 240 includes a purchase price difference processing unit 241, a collection difference processing unit 242, and a manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243.
The purchase price difference processing unit 241 calculates a purchase price difference. The purchase price difference is a difference between a price determined as a standard cost and a price actually purchased when purchasing materials, parts, and the like from the outside. The purchase price difference processing unit 241 includes a purchase standard cost calculation unit 2411, a purchase actual cost calculation unit 2412, and a purchase price difference calculation unit 2413.
The collection difference processing unit 242 calculates a collection difference. The recovery difference is the difference between the schedule and the actual performance related to the recovery of expenses (expenses) of the direct department. The collection difference processing unit 242 includes a collection standard cost calculation unit 2421, a collection actual cost calculation unit 2422, and a collection difference calculation unit 2423.
The manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243 calculates the manufacturing cost difference. The manufacturing cost difference is a difference between the manufacturing cost determined as the standard cost and the actual manufacturing cost. The manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243 includes a manufacturing standard cost calculating unit 2431, an actual manufacturing cost calculating unit 2432, a manufacturing cost difference calculating unit 2433, and a reference value storage unit 2434.

FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram of processing of the purchase price difference processing unit 241 according to the first embodiment.
FIG. 6A is an explanatory diagram for calculating the purchase price difference in the monthly processing, and FIG. 6B is an explanatory diagram for calculating the purchase price difference during the month by the purchase price difference processing unit 241.

At the time of monthly processing, the actual purchase price, which is the actual purchase price, and the purchase quantity, which is the actual purchase quantity, for the materials and parts purchased in the target period (July) It is included in purchase results information.
For this reason, as shown in FIG. 6A, in the monthly processing, the purchase price information including the delivery date in the target period is used to obtain the standard cost of the purchased material or part for each purchase record information. The purchase standard cost ((1) in FIG. 6) multiplied by the received quantity is calculated, and the actual purchase price (in FIG. 6) obtained by multiplying the purchased purchase price actually purchased by the purchase quantity for each purchase result information. (2)) is calculated. Then, when the purchase standard cost ((1) in FIG. 6) is subtracted from the actual purchase cost ((2) in FIG. 6), a purchase price difference ((3) in FIG. 6) is obtained.

On the other hand, during the month, for materials and parts purchased in the past period (from July 1 to July 7), the actual purchase price and quantity are included in the purchase record information. However, with regard to materials and parts purchased in the future period (from July 8 to July 31), the actual purchase price and quantity are not included in the performance information. Therefore, the purchase price difference processing unit 241 predicts the price and quantity of materials and parts to be purchased in the future period from the order information.
Specifically, the purchase price difference processing unit 241 uses purchase record information including a delivery date in the past period as the record information. The purchase record information includes a purchase item indicating the purchased material or part, a purchase purchase price that is a purchased price, and a purchase quantity that is a purchased quantity. Further, the purchase price difference processing unit 241 uses order information including a delivery date in the future period as the plan information. The order information includes an order item indicating a material or a part to be purchased, an order purchase price that is a price to be purchased, and an order quantity that is a quantity to be purchased. Here, the ordering information includes ordered information that has been ordered but not delivered, and ordering schedule information that has not been ordered but is planned to be ordered.
Then, the purchase price difference processing unit 241 calculates the purchase price difference as shown in FIG.

For the past period, the purchase standard cost calculation unit 2411 multiplies the purchase price by the purchase quantity to the standard price of the purchased material or part for each purchase result information (see FIG. 6). (4)) is calculated. The purchase standard cost calculation unit 2411 calculates a purchase standard cost prediction value ((5) in FIG. 6) by multiplying the standard price of the ordered item by the order quantity for each order information for the future period.
The purchase standard cost calculation unit 2411 adds the purchase standard cost actual value ((4) in FIG. 6) and the purchase standard cost forecast value ((5) in FIG. 6) to the purchase standard cost ((6) in FIG. 6). ).

The purchase actual cost calculation unit 2412 calculates the purchase actual cost actual value ((7) in FIG. 6) by multiplying the purchase purchase price by the purchase quantity for each purchase result for the past period. The purchase actual cost calculation unit 2412 calculates a purchase actual cost prediction value ((8) in FIG. 6) by multiplying the order purchase price by the order quantity for each order information for the future period.
The purchase actual cost calculation unit 2412 adds the actual purchase cost actual value ((7) in FIG. 6) and the purchase actual cost forecast value ((8) in FIG. 6) to the actual purchase cost ((9) in FIG. 6). ).

  The purchase price difference calculating unit 2413 calculates the purchase price difference ((10) in FIG. 6) by subtracting the purchase standard cost ((6) in FIG. 6) from the actual purchase cost ((9) in FIG. 6).

FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram of processing of the collection difference processing unit 242 according to the first embodiment.
FIG. 7A is an explanatory diagram of calculation of the collection difference in the monthly processing, and FIG. 7B is an explanatory diagram of calculation of the collection difference during the month by the collection difference processing unit 242.

At the time when the monthly processing is executed, the work item in which the work was performed in the target period (July) and the actual work time in which the work was performed are included in the worked information. In addition, the direct departmental costs for the period covered are clear as actual results. The direct department expenses include personnel expenses of the department, depreciation expenses of factory facilities, utility expenses, and allocation of administrative department expenses.
Therefore, as shown in FIG. 7 (a), in the monthly processing, the scheduled charge for the work item is multiplied by the actual work time for each work completed information, using the work completed information that has been performed during the target period. The standard recovery cost ((1) in FIG. 7) is calculated. Then, when the recovery standard cost ((1) in FIG. 7) is subtracted from the direct department cost ((2) in FIG. 7), a recovery difference ((3) in FIG. 7) is obtained.

On the other hand, during the month, the work items that have been worked in the past period (from July 1 to July 7) and the actual work time in which the work has been done are included in the work done information. However, the work performed in the future period (from July 8 to July 31) is not included in the work completed information. In addition, the direct sector costs for the target period are not clear as actual results. Therefore, the collection difference processing unit 242 predicts work to be performed in the future period from the work schedule information. In addition, the cost of the direct department is estimated from the annual budget plan.
Specifically, the collection difference processing unit 242 uses work completed information including a work day in the past period as the result information. The work completion information includes work items for which work has been performed and actual work times for which work has been performed. Further, the collection difference processing unit 242 uses work schedule information that is scheduled to be performed in a future period as the plan information. The work schedule information includes a work item scheduled to be worked and a work schedule time scheduled to be worked. Here, the work schedule information includes work instruction information that has already been instructed, and planned order information that has not been instructed but is scheduled to work. Moreover, the collection | recovery difference process part 242 uses the expense budget information which shows the production expense budget in an object period as an annual budget plan.
Then, the recovery difference processing unit 242 calculates the recovery difference as shown in FIG.

The recovery standard cost calculation unit 2421 calculates the recovery standard cost actual value ((4) in FIG. 7) by multiplying the scheduled charge for the work item by the actual work time for each completed information regarding the past period. The recovery standard cost calculation unit 2421 calculates a recovery standard cost prediction value ((5) in FIG. 7) for each future work period by multiplying the scheduled charge for the work item by the scheduled work time for each work schedule information.
The recovery actual cost calculation unit 2422 adds the recovery standard cost actual value ((4) in FIG. 7) and the recovery standard cost predicted value ((5) in FIG. 7) to the recovery standard cost ((6) in FIG. 7). ).

The actual recovery cost calculation unit 2422 directly sets the expense budget information as the actual recovery cost ((7) in FIG. 7).
Here, the expense budget information stores a production expense budget to be applied to human rights expenses, depreciation expenses, and other expenses. Actual labor costs are concentrated on the salary day of the month, and cost amortization and other costs tend to be concentrated at the end of the month. Therefore, the expense budget information is used as it is as the actual cost of recovery without considering the expenses already incurred at the time of forecasting during the month.
If the cost of the direct department for the target month recorded up to the processing date exceeds the expense budget information, the collected actual cost calculation unit 2422 will calculate the cost of the direct department for the target month recorded up to the processing date. May be used as the actual recovery cost.

  The recovery difference calculation unit 2423 calculates the recovery difference ((8) in FIG. 7) by subtracting the recovery standard cost ((4) in FIG. 7) from the actual recovery cost ((7) in FIG. 7).

FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram of processing of the manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243 according to the first embodiment.
FIG. 8A is an explanatory diagram of the calculation of the manufacturing cost difference in the monthly process, and FIG. 8B is an explanatory diagram of the calculation of the manufacturing cost difference during the month by the manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243.

At the time of monthly processing, the actual product and parts manufactured in the target period (July), the number of manufactured products, and the actual manufacturing costs (material costs and processing costs) Is included in the completed information.
Therefore, as shown in FIG. 8 (a), in the monthly processing, manufacturing is performed by multiplying the standard cost of the manufactured item by the manufacturing quantity for each completed information, using the completed information for which the work has been performed in the target period. The standard cost ((1) in FIG. 8) is calculated, and the actual manufacturing cost ((2) in FIG. 8) is calculated by adding the manufacturing cost for each piece of work completed information. Then, when the actual manufacturing cost ((2) in FIG. 8) is subtracted from the manufacturing standard cost ((1) in FIG. 8), a manufacturing cost difference ((3) in FIG. 8) is obtained.

On the other hand, during the month, the manufactured items manufactured during the past period (from July 1 to July 7), the manufacturing quantity, and the manufacturing cost are included in the worked information. However, what is manufactured in the future period (from July 8 to July 31) is not included in the completed work information. Therefore, the manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243 predicts what is manufactured in the future period from the work schedule information.
Specifically, the manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243 uses work completed information including a work day in the past period as the result information. The work completion information includes manufactured manufactured items, manufactured manufacturing quantities, and manufacturing costs for manufacturing. Further, the manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243 uses work schedule information that is scheduled to be performed in the future period as the plan information. The work schedule information includes a manufactured item to be manufactured and a scheduled manufacturing quantity to be manufactured.

In addition, the manufacturing cost for products manufactured in the future period may be higher than the manufacturing cost (standard cost) required for the planned production quantity because of many defects in the work process, and conversely In some cases, the cost is less than the standard cost because the work can be performed accurately. Therefore, when the manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243 predicts the manufacturing cost in the future period, how much the manufacturing cost (actual cost) is required or how much less than the necessary manufacturing cost (standard cost)? A reference value indicating the ratio is used.
For example, the reference value is calculated for each manufactured item from the results in the past several months and stored in the reference value storage unit 2434.

  Then, the manufacturing cost difference processing unit 243 calculates the manufacturing cost difference as shown in FIG.

The manufacturing standard cost calculation unit 2431 calculates the manufacturing standard cost actual value ((4) in FIG. 8) by multiplying the standard cost of the manufacturing item by the manufacturing quantity for each work completed information regarding the past period. For the future period, the manufacturing standard cost calculation unit 2431 calculates the manufacturing standard cost prediction value ((5) in FIG. 8) by multiplying the standard cost of the manufacturing item by the manufacturing scheduled quantity for each work schedule information.
The manufacturing standard cost calculation unit 2431 adds the manufacturing standard cost actual value ((4) in FIG. 8) and the manufacturing standard cost forecast value ((5) in FIG. 8) to add the manufacturing standard cost ((6 in FIG. 8). )).

The actual manufacturing cost calculation unit 2432 calculates the actual manufacturing cost actual value ((7) in FIG. 8) by adding the manufacturing cost for each work completed information for the past period. For the future period, the actual manufacturing cost calculation unit 2432 multiplies the standard price of the manufacturing item by the planned manufacturing quantity for each work schedule information, and further multiplies the reference value of the manufacturing item (( 8)) is calculated.
The actual manufacturing cost calculation unit 2432 adds the actual manufacturing cost actual value ((7) in FIG. 8) and the actual manufacturing cost predicted value ((8) in FIG. 8) to add the actual manufacturing cost ((9) in FIG. 8). ).

  The manufacturing cost difference calculation unit 2433 calculates the manufacturing cost difference ((10) of FIG. 8) by subtracting the manufacturing standard cost ((6) of FIG. 8) from the actual manufacturing cost ((9) of FIG. 8).

  6 to 8 show cases where the actual cost is higher than the standard cost. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and the standard cost may be higher than the actual cost.

  As described above, the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 according to Embodiment 1 calculates the cost difference for each cost item using the actual information and the plan information. Then, the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 calculates the profit / loss for the target period using the calculated cost difference. Thereby, the profit and loss of the target period can be accurately predicted. As a result, it is possible to make an appropriate management decision at an early stage.

  Note that as the past period becomes longer and the future period becomes shorter, the ratio of the predicted value in the calculation of sales, cost, and cost difference decreases, and the ratio of the actual value increases, so the accuracy of the profit / loss predicted value increases. In other words, in the above explanation, profit / loss for July was predicted on July 8, but in the latter half of July, the ratio of the predicted value in the calculation of sales, cost and cost difference becomes small, Since the ratio of the actual value becomes large, the accuracy of the profit / loss forecast value becomes high.

Sales plan information is information input by a person in charge. Based on the sales plan information, work schedule information, order information, and the like are created by MRP (Materials Requirements Planning). Then, production operations and the like are performed based on the work schedule information. For this reason, sales plan information has had a large impact on business. However, the sales plan information may be input due to the convenience of the person in charge, and may not be accurate.
In the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200, the sales plan information is used to predict sales and costs, and is also used to create work schedule information and the like used to predict cost differences. Therefore, the sales plan information has a great influence on the accuracy of profit / loss prediction by the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200. The profit / loss prediction by the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 is information seen by the upper layer of a company such as a manager. If the accuracy of profit and loss prediction is low, the cause may be pursued. Therefore, the introduction of the profit / loss prediction device 200 also has an effect that the person in charge makes an effort to input the sales plan information accurately. As a result, the accuracy of the profit and loss prediction becomes high, and the business can be performed efficiently.

Embodiment 2. FIG.
In the first embodiment, the prediction of the profit and loss in the target period from the past start time to the future end time has been described. In the second embodiment, a description will be given of simulating a change in profit and loss in a target period by changing plan information.
In the second embodiment, the description will focus on the parts different from the first embodiment.

FIG. 9 is a configuration diagram of the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 according to the second embodiment.
The profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 illustrated in FIG. 9 includes a correction information input unit 280 in addition to the configuration included in the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 illustrated in FIG. 2.

The correction information input unit 280 receives input of correction information for correcting plan information such as sales plan information.
When the correction information input unit 280 receives the correction information, the sales calculation unit 220, the cost calculation unit 230, and the cost difference calculation unit 240 recalculate the sales, the cost, and the cost difference based on the plan information corrected by the correction information. . Then, the output unit 260 outputs the recalculated sales, cost, and cost difference. At this time, the output unit 260 may output the recalculated sales, cost, and cost difference together with the sales, cost, and cost difference calculated based on the plan information before correction.

  For example, when sales plan information is modified, sales and costs change. Further, when the sales plan information is corrected, other plan information such as work schedule information also changes, so that the cost difference also changes.

  As described above, the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 according to Embodiment 2 corrects the plan information and calculates the profit and loss for the target period based on the corrected plan information. This makes it possible to simulate how the profit / loss changes when the plan information is corrected when the predicted profit / loss is lower than the plan.

FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 illustrated in the first and second embodiments.
The profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 is a computer. Each element of the profit and loss prediction apparatus 200 can be realized by a program.
As a hardware configuration of the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200, an arithmetic device 901, an external storage device 902, a main storage device 903, a communication device 904, and an input / output device 905 are connected to the bus.

  The arithmetic device 901 is a CPU (Central Processing Unit) that executes a program. The external storage device 902 is, for example, a ROM (Read Only Memory), a flash memory, a hard disk device, or the like. The main storage device 903 is, for example, a RAM (Random Access Memory). The communication device 904 is, for example, a communication board. The input / output device 905 is, for example, a mouse, a keyboard, a display device, or the like.

The program is normally stored in the external storage device 902, and is loaded into the main storage device 903 and sequentially read into the arithmetic device 901 and executed.
The program is a program that realizes the functions described as the information acquisition unit 210, the sales calculation unit 220, the cost calculation unit 230, the cost difference calculation unit 240, the profit / loss calculation unit 250, the output unit 260, and the correction information input unit 280. .
Furthermore, an operating system (OS) is also stored in the external storage device 902. At least a part of the OS is loaded into the main storage device 903, and the arithmetic device 901 executes the above program while executing the OS.
In the description of the above embodiment, the information described by the standard cost storage unit 270, the information acquisition unit 210, the sales calculation unit 220, the cost calculation unit 230, the cost difference calculation unit 240, the profit / loss calculation unit 250, the output The information described by the unit 260 and the correction information input unit 280 to be acquired, calculated, output, received, and the like are stored in the main storage device 903 as a file.

  It should be noted that the amount of information of the performance information and the plan information is very large and takes a long time for calculation. Therefore, for example, performance information and plan information may be stored in an in-memory database. Thereby, calculation time can be shortened. An in-memory database is a database constructed by storing all data in a main memory.

  The configuration of FIG. 10 is merely an example of the hardware configuration of the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200, and the hardware configuration of the profit / loss prediction apparatus 200 is not limited to the configuration illustrated in FIG. Also good.

  100 ERP, 200 Profit and loss forecasting device, 210 Information acquisition unit, 220 Sales calculation unit, 230 Cost calculation unit, 240 Cost difference calculation unit, 241 Purchase price difference processing unit, 2411 Purchase standard cost calculation unit, 2412 Purchase actual cost calculation unit, 2413 Purchase price difference calculation unit, 242 Collection difference processing unit, 2421 Collection standard cost calculation unit, 2422 Collection actual cost calculation unit, 2423 Collection difference calculation unit, 243 Production cost difference processing unit, 2431 Production standard cost calculation unit, 2432 Production actual Cost calculation unit, 2433 Manufacturing cost difference calculation unit, 2434 Reference value storage unit, 250 Profit / loss calculation unit, 260 output unit, 270 Standard cost storage unit, 280 Correction information input unit.

Claims (8)

It is a profit and loss forecasting device that forecasts profit and loss for the target period from the past start time to the future end time,
An information acquisition unit that acquires business information including results of business in the past period from the start time to the processing time, and plan information including a plan of business in the future period from the processing time to the end time;
From the business information acquired by the information acquisition unit, the actual cost predicted to occur in the target period and the standard cost in the target period are calculated for the predetermined cost item, and the actual cost and the standard cost are calculated. A cost difference calculation unit that calculates a difference between the cost difference as a cost difference in the target period for the predetermined cost item,
A profit / loss prediction apparatus comprising: a profit / loss calculation unit that calculates a profit / loss prediction value for the target period using the cost difference calculated by the cost difference calculation unit. The performance information is sales performance information delivered in the past period, and includes sales performance information having a selling price and a sales quantity,
The plan information is sales schedule information including a delivery date in the future period, and includes sales schedule information having a selling price and a sales quantity,
The profit and loss forecasting device further includes:
The sales price in the past period is calculated by multiplying the sales price of the sales performance information by the sales quantity, and the sales forecast value in the future period is calculated by multiplying the sales price in the sales schedule information by the sales quantity. And a sales calculation unit for calculating the sales by adding the actual sales value and the predicted sales value,
The profit / loss prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the profit / loss prediction apparatus calculates the profit / loss prediction value by using the sales calculated by the sales calculation unit. The performance information is sales performance information delivered in the past period, and includes sales performance information having identification information and sales quantity of the sales product,
The plan information includes sales schedule information that includes a delivery date in the future period, and includes sales schedule information having identification information and a sales quantity of a product to be sold,
The profit and loss forecasting device further includes:
The sales price specified in the sales schedule information is calculated by multiplying the standard price of the sales product specified from the identification information included in the sales performance information by the sales quantity to calculate the cost actual value in the past period, and the sales specified from the identification information included in the sales schedule information. A cost calculation unit for calculating a cost forecast value in the future period by multiplying the standard cost of the product by the sales quantity, and calculating the cost by adding the actual cost value and the cost forecast value;
The profit / loss prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the profit / loss prediction apparatus calculates the profit / loss prediction value by using the cost calculated by the cost calculation unit. The track record information includes purchase track record information that has been delivered in the past period, and includes track record items having a purchase item, a purchase price, and a purchase quantity.
The plan information includes order information that includes a delivery date in the future period, and includes order information including an order item, an order purchase price, and an order quantity.
The cost difference calculation unit
The purchase standard cost actual value is calculated by multiplying the standard price of the purchased item included in the purchase actual information by the purchase quantity, and the purchase is performed by multiplying the standard price of the ordered item included in the order information by the ordered quantity. A purchase standard cost calculation unit that calculates a standard cost forecast value and calculates the purchase standard cost by adding the purchase standard cost actual value and the purchase standard cost forecast value;
The purchase actual cost actual value is calculated by multiplying the purchase purchase price included in the purchase record information by the purchase quantity, and the purchase actual cost forecast value is calculated by multiplying the order purchase price included in the order information by the order quantity. A purchase actual cost calculation unit for calculating the purchase actual cost by adding the actual purchase cost actual value and the estimated purchase actual cost value;
A purchase price difference calculation unit for calculating a purchase price difference that is a difference between the purchase standard cost and the purchase actual cost;
4. The profit / loss prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the profit / loss calculation unit calculates the profit / loss prediction value from a cost difference including the purchase price difference. The track record information includes work completed information in which work has been performed in the past period, and includes work completed information having a work item and an actual work time,
The plan information includes work schedule information scheduled to be worked in the future period, work schedule information having work items and work schedule time, and expense budget information indicating a production expense budget in the target period. And include
The cost difference calculation unit
The recovery standard cost actual value is calculated by multiplying the scheduled charge for the work item included in the work completed information by the actual work time, and the scheduled charge for the work item included in the work schedule information is multiplied by the scheduled work time. A recovery standard cost calculation unit that calculates a standard cost forecast value and calculates a recovery standard cost by adding the recovery standard cost actual value and the recovery standard cost prediction value;
A recovery actual cost calculation unit which uses the manufacturing cost budget as a recovery actual cost;
A recovery difference calculation unit for calculating a recovery difference that is a difference between the recovery standard cost and the actual recovery cost;
The profit / loss prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the profit / loss calculation unit calculates the profit / loss prediction value from a cost difference including the recovery difference. The track record information includes work completed information in which work has been performed in the past period, and includes work completed information having a manufactured item, a manufactured quantity, and a manufacturing cost.
The plan information includes work schedule information that is scheduled to be performed in the future period, and includes work schedule information having a production item and a production schedule quantity.
The cost difference calculation unit
For each manufactured item, a reference value storage unit that stores a reference value indicating the ratio of the actual cost to the standard cost for the manufacturing cost in the past performance,
The manufacturing standard cost actual value is calculated by multiplying the standard cost of the manufactured item included in the work completed information by the manufacturing quantity, and the manufacturing standard is calculated by multiplying the standard cost of the manufactured item included in the work schedule information by the planned manufacturing quantity. A manufacturing standard cost calculation unit for calculating a cost forecast value and calculating the production standard cost by adding the production standard cost actual value and the production standard cost forecast value;
The manufacturing cost of the work completed information is the actual manufacturing cost actual value, the standard cost of the manufacturing item of the work schedule information is multiplied by the scheduled production quantity, and the reference value storage unit stores the manufacturing item A manufacturing actual cost calculation unit that calculates a manufacturing actual cost forecast value by multiplying a reference value, and adds the actual manufacturing cost actual value and the manufacturing actual cost prediction value to calculate a manufacturing actual cost;
A manufacturing cost difference calculation unit for calculating a manufacturing cost difference which is a difference between the manufacturing standard cost and the actual manufacturing cost;
6. The profit / loss forecasting apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the profit / loss calculation unit calculates the profit / loss forecast value from a cost difference including the manufacturing cost difference. The profit and loss forecasting device further includes:
A correction information input unit that receives input of correction information for correcting the plan information;
The cost difference calculation unit recalculates the cost difference for the predetermined cost item using the plan information corrected by the correction information received by the correction information input unit,
7. The profit / loss forecast according to claim 1, wherein the profit / loss calculator recalculates the profit / loss forecast value for the target period using the cost difference calculated by the cost difference calculator. apparatus. A profit / loss forecasting program that forecasts profit / loss for the target period from the start of the past to the end of the future,
Information acquisition processing for acquiring business information including results of business in the past period from the start time to the processing time, and plan information including a plan of business in the future period from the processing time to the end time;
From the business information acquired in the information acquisition process, the actual cost predicted to occur in the target period and the standard cost in the target period are calculated for the predetermined cost item, and the actual cost and the standard cost are calculated. A cost difference calculation process for calculating a difference between and as a cost difference in the target period for the predetermined cost item;
A profit / loss prediction program for causing a computer to execute a profit / loss calculation process for calculating a profit / loss forecast value in the target period using the cost difference calculated in the cost difference calculation process.

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