JP2015139320A - Method for recovery from accident in power distribution system, device and method of estimating actual load and width of power distribution system, and program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To enable an estimation device to accurately recognize an output of a distributed power supply for each section and an active power consumed by a load, and to enable the estimation device to control only a section switch in consideration of its state to perform recovery from an accident.SOLUTION: Input processing of input data is performed, and the input processed data is stored (S1). Next, an accident section determination unit determines an accident section (S2). An output of a distributed power supply immediately before an accident, and a power consumed by a load are estimated (S3). The estimation at this step is performed by using a scatter diagram, a regression expression, or any one of the regression expression and independent component analysis. Widths of estimation values of the estimated output of the distributed power supply and the estimated power consumed by the load are calculated (S4). Then, processing for recovery from an accident is performed (S5). For the processing for recovery from an accident, the estimation device controls only a section switch to perform accident recovery for only the power consumption estimation value of the load, with a limit of the maximum allowable capacity of a power distribution system.

Description

  The present invention relates to an accident recovery method for restoring a system in the event of an accident in the system, and an actual load and a width of the distribution system for reliably performing the accident restoration in a power system in which distributed power sources are connected. The present invention relates to an apparatus, a method, and a program.

  In recent years, many distributed power sources (for example, PV (Photo Voltaic generation), wind power generators, fuel cells, etc.) have been introduced into the distribution system. For the proper operation of the power distribution system, especially in the event of an accident recovery, accurately grasp the output of the distributed power source (eg, photovoltaic power generator) and the active power consumed by the load for each section, and consider its state It is necessary to recover from the accident. In this specification, a case where a solar power generation device (PV) as a representative example is used as a distributed power source will be described exclusively, but the present invention is not limited to only a solar power generation device (PV). In addition, “section” is a power connection that is separated by a section switch provided at the main point of the distribution system in order to make it easier to recover from an accident if an accident occurs in the distribution system. It means an area.

In the conventional power distribution system, the PV system (PV) was not included,
The relationship of measured power = power consumed by the load was found.

  For this reason, the conventional accident recovery technique in the distribution system is to use the power enough to cover the power measured immediately before the accident, that is, to recover the accident by using the measured power from its surroundings.

  However, such a technology cannot be used in a distribution system in which a large number of distributed power sources (eg, photovoltaic power generation devices) are introduced. For example, when the power consumed by the load is 100 kW and the output amount of the distributed power supply is 100 kW, the measured power is 0 W. When an accident occurs, the distributed power supply is disconnected from the system and the output becomes 0 kW. The electric power required for the accident recovery is 100 kW, but the electric power measured immediately before the accident is 0 W. Therefore, if the conventional technology tries to make it compatible, the electric power will be insufficient.

Some of the documents disclosing the prior art for recovering from an accident in consideration of a distributed power source are exemplified below. That is,
In the following Patent Document 1, a distribution control device that monitors and controls the division switch and the distributed power source is provided, and the distribution control device not only operates the division switch but also controls on / off of the distributed power source, An accident recovery method is disclosed in which the total load is controlled so as not to exceed the allowable capacity of the distribution line.

  Further, in Patent Document 2 below, the power generation output amount of the distributed power source in the section is increased so that the supply trouble section does not occur, and the total power generation output amount of each distributed power source matches the total load amount of each demand facility. An accident recovery method is disclosed.

  Further, in Patent Document 3 below, in a power distribution system monitoring and control device that performs an accident recovery operation of a power system in which a load and a distributed power source coexist, a load selected in advance by the power distribution system monitoring and control device is disconnected, and the load is sufficiently A method of recovering an accident by putting a distribution line circuit breaker in a light state is disclosed.

On the other hand, as a prerequisite for accident recovery, a technology that accurately estimates the power consumed by the load and the output amount of the distributed power source (eg, photovoltaic power generation device) immediately before the accident is required. Therefore, conventionally, the following techniques are known as techniques for estimating the output amount of a distributed power source (eg, a photovoltaic power generation device) and the power consumed by a load. That is,
In Patent Document 4 below, there is a technique for constructing an estimation formula for estimating the power consumed by a load and the output amount of a photovoltaic power generation device using data without a photovoltaic power generation output such as before the photovoltaic power generation system is introduced. It is disclosed.

  Patent Document 5 listed below discloses a technique for separating active power output from a solar power generation device and active power consumed by a load from measured active power and reactive power using independent component analysis. .

JP 2007-028769 A JP 2011-061931 A JP 2006-066085 A JP 2012-191777 A JP 2012-095478 A

  In each of the above Patent Documents 1 to 3, a central control device (eg, power distribution control device, power distribution system monitoring control device) directly controls power consumed by a distributed power source (eg, photovoltaic power generation device) or a load. Like to do. However, it is rare that the actual power distribution system can directly control the power consumed by the distributed power supply (eg, photovoltaic power generation equipment) and the load. In most cases, both the power generated by the distributed power supply and the power consumed by the load are controlled. Can not. The central control unit can only directly control the section switch.

  Moreover, the said patent document 4 has the problem that it cannot apply for estimation, if there is no data without a photovoltaic power generation output. In the case of rainy weather, etc., there is no solar power output, but in the case of Japan, there is a problem that it is impossible to construct a highly accurate estimation formula because rainy weather is less than that of other weather days.

  Moreover, although the said patent document 5 can estimate the effective electric power which a solar power generation device outputs, and the effective electric power which a load consumes, the width of an estimated value, ie, how much the estimated value is likely to deviate. Since it cannot be presented, there is a problem of mistaking the power required for accident recovery.

  There is no problem if the actual load estimate can be estimated without error, but no error-free estimation is possible at the current technical level. Therefore, it is necessary to take a certain amount of margin into the estimated value and use it as the interchangeable power at the time of accident recovery. For example, even if the estimated load necessary for recovery is estimated to be 90 kW, it is necessary to allow 100 kW or 110 kW of power with a margin. However, since this method does not know in advance how much error there is between the estimated load and the actual load, there is a problem that it is not possible to know exactly how much extra space should be estimated when recovering from an accident. is there.

  Therefore, one of the problems of the present invention is that the estimation device accurately grasps the output of the distributed power source and the active power consumed by the load for each section, and the estimation device controls only the division switch in consideration of the state. It is to enable accident recovery.

  Another object of the present invention is to estimate the effective power consumed by the output of the photovoltaic power generation device and the load from the data measured for each section, even on the day when the photovoltaic power generation output as a distributed power source is not a day. It is possible to accurately estimate the actual load and the width of the distribution system using the regression equation or independent component analysis and regression equation, and make it available for power interchange at the time of accident recovery.

In order to solve the above-mentioned problem, the invention according to claim 1 is an accident recovery method for a power system in which a plurality of distributed power sources and loads are connected to a distribution line.
Providing a plurality of division switches to divide the distribution line into a plurality of sections;
Measuring the load for each section on the distribution line and storing it in a storage device provided in the estimation means, and storing the maximum allowable capacity of the distribution system in the storage device in advance,
Estimating a distributed power output and load power consumption immediately before an accident for each section based on the measured load stored in a storage device provided in the estimation means;
After the accident, identifying an accident section of the distribution system; and
After identifying the fault section of the power distribution system, use the estimated power consumption value of the load in the fault section, and recover the accident when the estimation means operates the section switch in a range not exceeding the maximum allowable capacity of the power distribution system Step,
It is characterized by including.

  In the first aspect of the invention, the estimated power consumption estimated value of the load estimated by the estimating means has an estimated value width (margin ratio) that does not become an overload at the time of the accident recovery, and the accident recovery step. Is characterized in that only the estimated power consumption value of the load including the estimated value width (margin ratio) is recovered from the accident (the invention according to claim 2).

  Further, in the invention according to claim 1, the step of estimating the distributed power output and the load power consumption immediately before the accident for each section includes the power consumption of the load apparatus for each section stored in the storage device, and The power consumption of the load device and the output of the distributed power source are estimated using a scatter diagram obtained by plotting the temperature at the time on the coordinate axis (the invention according to claim 3).

  The invention according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein a value obtained by excluding the estimated output of the distributed power source from the estimated power consumption of each section in the accident section is used for accident recovery. (Invention of Claim 4).

Further, in the invention according to any one of claims 1 to 3, when the high-voltage distributed power supply apparatus includes means for measuring the output of the high-voltage distributed power supply connected to the high-voltage side,
A value obtained by subtracting the estimated output of the distributed power source from the estimated power consumption of each section of the accident section and adding the measured value of the output of the high-voltage distributed power source to the value is used for accident recovery (claim) Item 5).

  In the invention according to claim 4 or 5, the power consumption estimated value of the load estimated by the estimating means has an estimated value width (margin ratio) that does not become an overload at the time of the accident recovery, and the load The step of recovering the accident only for the estimated power consumption value includes recovering the accident only for the estimated power consumption value of the load including the range (margin ratio) of the estimated value (the invention according to claim 6). .

In order to solve the above problem, the invention according to claim 7 is a power system in which a plurality of distributed power sources and a plurality of load devices are connected to a distribution line.
Means for providing a plurality of division switches to divide the distribution line into a plurality of sections;
Means for measuring active power and reactive power for each section on the distribution line and storing them in a storage device provided in the estimating means;
Means for estimating the active power of the load device for each section by a regression equation from the distributed power and the reactive power of the load device for each of the sections stored in the storage device;
Means for calculating a width of the estimated value for the active power estimated value of the load device for each of the sections estimated by the regression equation;
It is characterized by providing.

In the invention according to claim 7, means for estimating the active power of the distributed power source based on the active power estimated value of the load device for each section obtained by the regression equation;
The invention further comprises means for calculating a width of the estimated value of the active power estimated value of the distributed power source for each section estimated by the regression equation (the invention according to claim 8).

In order to solve the above problems, the invention according to claim 9 is a power system in which a plurality of distributed power sources and a plurality of load devices are connected to a distribution line.
Providing a plurality of division switches to divide the distribution line into a plurality of sections;
Measuring the active power and reactive power for each section on the distribution line and storing them in a storage device provided in the estimating means;
Estimating the active power of the load device for each section from the distributed power and the reactive power of the load device for each section stored in the storage device by a regression equation; and
Calculating an estimated value width for the active power estimated value of the load device for each section estimated by the regression equation;
It is characterized by including.

In the invention according to claim 9, estimating the active power of the distributed power source based on the active power estimate value of the load device for each section obtained by the regression equation,
Calculating the width of the estimated value of the active power estimated value of the distributed power source for each of the sections estimated by the regression equation (invention according to claim 10).

Further, in the invention according to claim 9 or 10, the active power of the load device or the output of the distributed power source is separated using the independent component analysis from the measured active power and reactive power.
From the active power of the separated load device or the active power of the distributed power source and the measured reactive power, the effective power of the load device or the active power of the distributed power source is calculated using the regression equation. Estimating
A step of calculating a range of the estimated effective power of the load device or the estimated value of the active power of the distributed power supply, further comprising the invention (claim 11).

In order to solve the above problem, the invention according to claim 12 is a power system in which a plurality of distributed power sources and a plurality of load devices are connected to a distribution line.
The power system includes an estimation device that estimates an actual load of a distribution system, and the computer of the estimation device includes:
Means for providing a plurality of division switches to divide the distribution line into a plurality of sections;
Means for measuring active power and reactive power for each section on the distribution line and storing them in a storage device;
Means for estimating the active power of the load device for each section by a regression equation from the distributed power and the reactive power of the load device for each of the sections stored in the storage device;
This is a program for functioning as a means for calculating the estimated value width for the active power estimated value of the load device for each section estimated by the regression equation.

In order to solve the above problem, the invention according to claim 13 is a power system in which a plurality of distributed power sources and a plurality of load devices are connected to a distribution line.
The power system includes an estimation device that estimates an actual load of a distribution system, and the computer of the estimation device includes:
Means for providing a plurality of division switches to divide the distribution line into a plurality of sections;
Means for measuring active power and reactive power for each section on the distribution line and storing them in a storage device;
Means for estimating the active power of the load device for each section by a regression equation from the distributed power and the reactive power of the load device for each of the sections stored in the storage device;
Means for calculating a width of the estimated value for the active power estimated value of the load device for each of the sections estimated by the regression equation;
Means for estimating the active power of the distributed power source based on the active power estimate value of the load device for each section obtained by the regression equation;
This is a program for functioning as means for calculating the estimated value width for the active power estimated value of the distributed power source for each section estimated by the regression equation.

  According to the present invention, in a power system in which distributed power sources are interconnected, the power consumed by the load to be accommodated in the event of an accident without accurately measuring all the outputs of the distributed power source and the load connected to the distribution system. Thus, it is possible to recover from an accident without causing an overload. Moreover, it is possible to recover from an accident only by controlling the division switch without individually controlling the load and the distributed power source.

  In addition, according to the present invention, the active power of the solar power output of the entire distribution system and the effective power consumed by the load can be obtained without installing a measuring device that individually measures the output amount of the distributed power source represented by the solar power generation device. The power can be estimated separately, and the width of the estimated value can be obtained. On the other hand, since neither of the techniques disclosed in Patent Documents 4 and 5 can determine the range of the estimated value, how much estimation error should be found when the accident is recovered based on the estimated value? Although it cannot be determined, according to the present invention, the estimated error of the estimated value can be obtained quantitatively, so that appropriate accident recovery can be performed.

It is a figure which shows the structural example of the power distribution system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the structure of the electric power estimation apparatus (the 1) which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a scatter diagram (the 1) which shows the relationship between the measurement load concerning embodiment of this invention, and the temperature at the time of rainy weather. It is a scatter diagram (the 2) which shows the relationship between the measurement load produced from many data, and the temperature at the time of rainy weather concerning embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the state before the accident of the power distribution system in the structural example of the power distribution system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the state immediately after accident occurrence of the power distribution system in the structural example of the power distribution system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the mode of the accident recovery assumed by the accident recovery of the power distribution system in the structural example of the power distribution system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the mode of the accident recovery of the power distribution system in the structural example of the power distribution system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the mode of accident recovery when the power distribution system in the structural example of the power distribution system which concerns on embodiment of this invention is comprised by the high voltage | pressure interconnection and the low voltage | pressure interconnection. It is a figure which shows an example of a structure of the power distribution system shown in FIG. It is a figure which shows the processing flow explaining operation | movement of the electric power estimation apparatus (the 1) which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the structure of the electric power estimation apparatus (the 2) which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the active power and reactive power for the regression type construction process part of the power estimation apparatus (the 2) which concerns on embodiment of this invention to obtain a regression type (Formula 2). It is a conceptual diagram which shows the width | variety of the estimated value which the active power estimated value (regression) of an actual load takes in the electric power estimation apparatus (the 2) which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the structure of the electric power estimation apparatus (the 3) which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the active power and reactive power for the regression type construction process part of the power estimation apparatus (the 3) which concerns on embodiment of this invention for obtaining a regression type (Formula 3). It is a conceptual diagram which shows the width | variety of the estimated value which the active power estimated value of the real load takes in the electric power estimation apparatus (the 3) which concerns on embodiment of this invention.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of a power distribution system according to an embodiment of the present invention. A power distribution system according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG.

  As shown in FIG. 1, a photovoltaic power generation device (PV: Photo Voltaic generation), which is a representative example of a load and a distributed power source, is connected to a distribution line branched into a system A and a system B located downstream from a substation 1 . The distribution line is provided with one or a plurality of wattmeters (in the illustrated example, wattmeters P1,..., P4), and the active power and reactive power measured by the wattmeter are periodically sent to the power estimation device 10. Is transmitted. In addition, in the wattmeters P1,..., P4, in addition to the above-described active power and reactive power, the current, power factor, switching state of the switch, and the like are also measured and transmitted to the power estimation apparatus 10.

  Referring to FIG. 1 in more detail, for example, a distribution line A system (also referred to as a feeder) connected to the substation 1 is connected to two general households and one factory, and the distribution line B system (feeder). As an example, three ordinary homes are connected. And a solar power generation panel is installed on the roof of a general household, and the electric power generated by the solar power generation panel is converted into alternating current through an inverter, and power is consumed by a load in the home, It is configured so that power can be supplied to the system if there is excess solar power. Note that power is transmitted to the substation 1 from a power plant (not shown) via a power transmission line.

  The configuration example of the power distribution system shown in FIG. 1 is merely an example, and in fact, more general households, factories, mega solars, and the like are connected to the power distribution line. The factory shown in the figure does not have a photovoltaic power generation device (power generation panel), but is connected to a load that consumes energy consisting of a motor, a capacitor (reactance), a general power load, and the like in the factory. It is described as consuming the power supplied from the distribution line. The reactive power compensator 200 adjusts the reactive power, and its function is known to those skilled in the art, and the description thereof is omitted.

  In addition, the distribution line in the illustrated example is provided with a power meter P1 on the substation 1 side of the switch S1, and the power value consumed by all the loads connected to the distribution line downstream from the power meter P1 is also represented by the switch S2. A wattmeter P2 is installed on the substation 1 side, and the power value consumed by all the loads connected to the distribution lines downstream from the wattmeter P2 is installed, and a wattmeter P3 is installed on the substation 1 side of the switch S3. The power value consumed by all the loads connected to the distribution line downstream from the power meter P3 is further provided on the substation 1 side of the switch S4, and the power meter P4 is connected to the distribution line downstream from the power meter P4. The power values consumed by all loads are measured, and the active power and reactive power values measured by the power meter P1, the power meter P2, the power meter P3, and the power meter P4, respectively, are periodically calculated by the power estimation device ( Part 1) is transmitted to 10. In FIG. 1, S1 to S4 are simply expressed as “switches”, but formally “segment switches”. However, since the figure becomes complicated in the drawing, it is deliberately written as “switch”. In addition, S5 and S6 are used when accumulating power across the grid, and are described as “switches”.

  By doing in this way, it becomes possible to measure the value of active power and reactive power for each section of the distribution line divided by each (section) switch. In addition, by measuring the values of active power and reactive power for each section of the distribution line, as described later, the actual load of each section can be calculated using a scatter diagram, regression equation, or regression equation and independent component analysis. It becomes possible to estimate the effective power value and the effective power value of the solar power generation device.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram showing the configuration of the power estimation apparatus (part 1) according to the embodiment of the present invention. A power estimation apparatus (No. 1) 10 according to the present invention shown in FIG. 2 is configured by a general-purpose apparatus that processes information such as a computer. The apparatus includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit), which is not particularly illustrated. It has a hardware configuration well known to those skilled in the art, such as a storage device (hard disk), a memory, a communication function unit, an input / output interface, and an input / output device. A predetermined application program is stored in advance in the storage device, and the functions of various processing units 11 to 17 described below are realized by the CPU reading and executing the application program.

Under the hardware configuration of the power estimation apparatus (part 1) 10,
The input processing unit 11 includes a wattmeter P1, a wattmeter P2, and a wattmeter P3 and a wattmeter P4 provided in the distribution system. Import each value (data). Although not shown, data other than measuring instruments such as meteorological information and calendar information provided by the outside (for example, the Japan Meteorological Agency) can be taken in, and a person in charge (not shown) is also required if necessary. Can directly input the information from the input processing unit 11.

The data accumulation processing unit 12 accumulates information captured by the input processing unit 11 and appropriately accumulates information processed by the functional units 13 to 17 in the power estimation apparatus (part 1) 10 described later.
The output processing unit 13 displays the information stored in the data storage processing unit 12 on a screen or prints it on paper or the like and outputs it. Further, the output processing unit 13 can output the information processed and accumulated by the functional units 11 to 17 in the power estimation device (part 1) 10 to an external device (not shown) via a network or the like.

  The input processing unit 11 and the output processing unit 13 described above are realized by the input / output device of the information processing apparatus described above. The data accumulation processing unit 12 is realized by a storage device (hard disk), a memory, or the like of the information processing apparatus described above. The bus 18 connects the above processing unit and a processing unit described later.

  On the other hand, the accident section determination unit 14 of the power estimation apparatus (part 1) 10 performs a process of determining a section in which an accident has occurred. This processing uses a conventional method that has been practiced in Japan. That is, in Japan, it is common to make a judgment by sequentially operating the upstream side switch (substation 1 side). That is, when an accident occurs, all the switches of the feeder including the section where the accident occurred are opened once. Thereafter, when the upstream switch is closed and no overcurrent flows, the switch further downstream is closed. This operation is automatically continued until an overcurrent occurs. If an overcurrent occurs, a section downstream from the switch is determined as an accident section.

The estimation process part 15 performs the process which estimates the output of a distributed power supply (for example, solar power generation device) and the electric power which a load consumes for every area. There are various estimation methods, but this processing unit uses the following method. Of course, the present invention is not limited to this example. That is,
As shown in FIG. 3, a scatter diagram (part 1) showing the relationship between the measured load (measurement load) and the temperature during rainy weather is created. As data used in the scatter diagram (part 1) in FIG. 3, for example, data in the past one month of rainy weather is used, and this is obtained by plotting on the coordinate axis composed of the measurement load and temperature. The scatter diagram is created, for example, every hour from 1 o'clock to 24 o'clock of the day, and for each weekday and holiday. In the above, an example of creating at intervals of 1 hour is shown, but it may be created at intervals of 30 minutes or 15 minutes. In FIG. 3, the number of plots is omitted.

  Here, with reference to the scatter diagram (part 1) in FIG. 3, the point A, which intersects with the plot shown by the scatter diagram in rainy weather, is estimated as the power consumption of the load. The value indicated by point B in FIG. 3 is a measured value measured by the above-described wattmeter immediately before the accident on the day of the accident. Therefore, the estimated output value of the distributed power supply (eg, photovoltaic power generation device) immediately before the occurrence of the accident is A-B. In this case, if there is no point A that matches the temperature, the data on the scatter diagram during rainy weather closest to the temperature may be used instead. And if the said measured value is measured with the wattmeter P1 of FIG. 1, it will become an estimated value by the output of the electric power consumed by the load below the wattmeter P1 and a distributed power supply (for example, solar power generation device). Similarly, if it is measured by the power meter P2, it is an estimated value based on the power consumed by the load below the power meter P2 and the output of the distributed power source (eg, photovoltaic power generation device). When the number of installed wattmeters is small, the power consumed by the load for each category cannot be accurately determined. For example, without the power meter P2, the power consumed by the load in the section between the power meter P1 and the power meter P2 is unknown. In that case, it will be prorated based on the contracted capacity of each section.

Next, processing of the estimated width processing unit 16 will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 4 is a scatter diagram (part 2) different from FIG. When a scatter diagram during rainy weather as shown in FIG. 3 is created from a large amount of data, the measurement load has a width (see the double arrow line) even at the same temperature as shown in FIG. Therefore, the temperature of the point A shown in FIG. 4 is obtained at the temperature immediately before the accident, and the half value and the database in advance (not shown, but created in the data storage processing unit 12 of FIG. 2). The estimated width (margin ratio) shown below is calculated by adding the arbitrary margin ratio obtained by the rule of thumb set above. That is,
Width of estimated value (margin ratio) = Width indicated by point A on the scatter diagram / 2 + Arbitrary margin ratio ... Formula 1
Next, processing of the accident recovery processing unit 17 illustrated in FIG. 2 will be described with reference to FIGS. 5A to 8. In the examples shown in FIGS. 5A to 8, an arbitrary number of sections (sections separated by the above-described switches (in the illustrated example, rectangular display)) are provided, and any section is provided for the sake of simplicity. Suppose that the load is 500kW and the photovoltaic power generation device (PV) outputs 200kW as a distributed power source. In other words, the apparent load in each section is assumed to be 300kW. In FIGS. 5A to 8, white rectangles indicate that the switch is “open”, and black rectangles indicate that the switch is “closed”.

  The example of FIG. 5A shows an example in which each feeder (system A and system B shown in FIG. 1) is provided with 6 sections, so 1800 kW is sent from the substation 1 to each feeder. The maximum allowable capacity that can be supplied from the substation 1 to each feeder is 4000 kW. Since PV output is lost immediately after the occurrence of the accident as shown in FIG. 5B, all parts other than the accident section (callout line display) are restored from the normal feeder (B system in the illustrated example) as shown in FIG. If it tries to do so, the total load will be 4300 kW, exceeding the maximum allowable capacity of the feeder 4000 kW.

  Therefore, in the accident recovery based on the accident recovery method according to the embodiment of the present invention, the recovery is performed within a range not exceeding 4000 kW. Therefore, as shown in FIG. We are trying to restore 3800kW. In addition, about the load of each area, the value estimated based on "the estimated power consumption value + the width of the estimated value (margin rate)" including the "arbitrary margin rate" shown in the above-described equation 1 is used. I use it.

Further, in the embodiment of the present invention, in addition to the above-described accident recovery method, the distribution system shown in FIG. 1 includes a high-voltage-connected distributed power source as shown in FIG. ), The accident will be recovered based on the accident recovery law shown below. That is,
In the case of a photovoltaic power generation device (PV) in which a distributed power source is connected to a low voltage, it is known that the power source is reconnected in a short time after restoration. In other words, since there is no problem with the distribution line in a short-term overload state, it may be considered that the low-voltage photovoltaic power generation unit (PV) is not disconnected. If all the distributed power sources are low-voltage photovoltaic power generation equipment (PV), 200kW of each section of the power outage section can be excluded from the load, so even if each section is regarded as 300kW and the accident recovery process is performed Good.

  On the other hand, if there is a distributed power supply connected to the high-voltage system, the distributed power supply connected to the high-voltage system will not be automatically re-connected, but must be manually connected after the accident recovery. It has become. Therefore, the distributed power source connected to the high voltage system is assumed to have been disconnected at the time of the accident, and the accident recovery process is performed. For distributed power sources linked to high-voltage systems, the power consumed by the load and the output of the distributed power source are usually measured with a power meter (not shown), so the output of the distributed power source can be easily grasped. it can. Here, the high-voltage system and the low-voltage system are usually a high-voltage system when the voltage supplied from the substation 1 can be received without going through the pole transformer. The case where the power can be received via a low-voltage system.

  A specific example will be described with reference to FIG. In the illustrated example, it is assumed that the A system including the accident section has three sections of high-voltage-connected distributed power supplies and two sections of low-voltage-connected photovoltaic power generation devices (PV). Since the distributed power supply of high voltage interconnection does not automatically reconnect, the load to be accommodated in each section is 500 kW. Since the PV of low-voltage interconnection is automatically linked in a relatively short time, the load to be accommodated is reduced by the PV output to 300 kW. Therefore, the load power to be accommodated is 1800 kW + 600 kW + 1500 kW = 3900 kW for all loads excluding the accident section, and this amount can be restored through a normal feeder (B system in the illustrated example). That is, in this case, all sections other than the accident section (speech line display), which was impossible in the accident recovery process shown in FIGS. 6 and 7, can be recovered.

  FIG. 9 is a diagram showing a specific configuration example of the distribution system in the case where a distribution line is configured by the high-voltage interconnection distributed power source shown in FIG. 8 and the low-voltage interconnection photovoltaic power generation device (PV). is there. In FIG. 9, in each feeder, that is, each of the A system and the B system, a low-voltage-connected photovoltaic power generation device (PV) and a high-voltage-connected distributed power source (for example, mega solar) are connected to the distribution line. It is configured.

  The accident recovery operation will be described with reference to the processing flow of FIG. FIG. 10 is a processing flowchart for explaining the operation of the power estimation apparatus (part 1) according to the embodiment of the present invention. In FIG. 10, the step is abbreviated as “S”. Reference should also be made to FIGS. 1, 2 and 9 as appropriate.

  10, first, input processing of input data is performed using the input processing unit 11 shown in FIG. 2, and the input data is stored in the data storage processing unit 12 (step S1). Next, in step S2, the accident section determination unit 14 determines the accident section.

  In step S3, the estimation processing unit 15 is used to estimate the output of the distributed power source (eg, solar power generation device) immediately before the accident and the power consumed by the load. In this step, in addition to the above-described estimation using the scatter diagram, estimation using a regression equation described later or a regression equation and independent component analysis is performed.

Next, in step S4, the estimated width processing unit 16 is used to calculate the estimated value width of the power consumed by the output of the distributed power source (e.g., photovoltaic power generation device) estimated above and the load.
In step S5, accident recovery processing is performed. In the accident recovery processing, the accident recovery processing method described in FIGS. 7 and 8 is used.

Finally, in step S6, data output processing is performed using the output processing unit 13 shown in FIG. In this way, a series of accident recovery processing in the embodiment of the present invention is executed.
As described above, the load to be accommodated in each section is obtained by subtracting the estimated output of the distributed power source (including the high voltage system and the low voltage system) from the estimated power consumption of the estimated load, and adding the value to the high voltage system distributed type. It can be calculated as the sum of the power supply outputs (measured values). The output of the distributed power source is estimated as the value including the high-voltage distributed power source, but the high-voltage distributed power source does not recover immediately, so it is assumed that there is no output value (measured value) and the accident is automatically recovered. It is necessary to estimate the interval to be performed.

  FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of the power estimation apparatus (part 2) according to the embodiment of the present invention. The power estimation apparatus (No. 2) 20 is composed of a general-purpose apparatus that processes information such as a computer, as in the configuration of the power estimation apparatus (Part 1) 10 according to the embodiment of the present invention shown in FIG. Although not particularly shown, the device has a hardware configuration well known to those skilled in the art, such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a storage device (hard disk), a memory, a communication function unit, an input / output interface, and an input / output device. I have. A predetermined application program is stored in advance in the storage device, and the functions of various processing units 21 to 27 described below are realized by the CPU reading and executing the application program. The configuration of the power distribution system according to the embodiment of the present invention is the same except that the power estimation apparatus (part 1) 10 shown in FIG. The description of those that overlap is omitted. A bus for connecting the various processing units 21 to 27 is provided.

  In this power estimation apparatus (No. 2) 20, estimation based on values measured by one wattmeter, for example, wattmeter P <b> 1, will be described for the sake of simplicity. Since this method estimates the effective power consumed by the load downstream from the measurement point, the effective power consumed by the load for each section can be estimated by measuring each switch.

The data extraction processing unit 24 of the power estimation apparatus (part 2) 20 performs a process of extracting data for regression equation construction required by a regression equation construction processing unit 25 described later. For example, the extraction process is performed with a combination of a plurality of extraction conditions as follows.
Extraction condition 1: Days within the past x days from the estimation target date (eg, x = 30)
Extraction condition 2: From t1 to t2 (eg t1 = 10, t2 = 16)
Extraction condition 3: Solar radiation time 0 (that is, the day without PV power generation)
Here, the solar radiation amount time is a sunshine hour per hour usually measured by the Japan Meteorological Agency, and is a value of 0 to 10. When the value is 0, there is no amount of solar radiation that exceeds the specified value, and the amount of solar radiation that exceeds the specified value is incremented by 1 every 6 minutes, and becomes 10 if it is 60 minutes within the corresponding time frame. In other words, 0 indicates night or rainy or cloudy, and 10 indicates clear sky.

Note that the extracted data is specifically the following n pieces of data.
Active power measurement value i, reactive power measurement value i
Where i: 1 to n
Next, the regression formula construction processing unit 25 constructs the following regression formula using the reactive power measurement value and the active power measurement value of the data extracted above. In constructing the regression equation, as shown in FIG. 12, the active power is set to the Y coordinate, the reactive power is set to the X coordinate, and the active power and the reactive power extracted by the data extraction processing unit 24 on the coordinates are set. By plotting the values, the following regression equation is obtained from the slope. That is, a0 and a1 of Equation 2 are obtained. In this case, if the data extraction processing unit 24 selects the extraction condition 3, it is possible to obtain data with zero sunshine time, for example, data in rainy weather. Therefore, it can be seen that the active power and the reactive power in the power consumed by the load are displayed in a graph with a substantially linear relationship.

Active power measurement value = a0 + a1 Reactive power measurement value ... Formula 2
In this example, the measured active power and reactive power values are used, so there is little error (if there is an error, there is only the measurement error, and there is no influence of the estimation error by independent component analysis described later). Is high data. On the other hand, there are many extraction conditions, and only a few days of data can be obtained.

  In order to construct a highly accurate regression equation (determining the above-described coefficients a0 and a1), a large amount of data is required with little error, but such data cannot actually be obtained. Therefore, depending on where the weight of the data is placed, it includes an estimation error due to independent component analysis described later, that is, the regression equation is constructed with weight on the amount of data, or as described above, the error can be reduced even with a small amount of data. It is an alternative to build a regression equation with little emphasis.

The estimation processing unit 26 obtains an estimated value of the extracted data using the above equation 2 indicating the regression equation. That is,
Actual load active power estimate (regression) i = a0 + a1 reactive power measurement i
Estimated active power for photovoltaic power generation i = Estimated active power for actual load (regression) i
-Active power measurement i
The estimated width calculation processing unit 27 obtains the width of the estimated value described above. The formula for obtaining the width is as follows.

Actual load active power estimate (regression) width i = actual load active power estimate (regression) i ± width i
Width of estimated active power of photovoltaic power generation i = Width of estimated active power of actual load (regression) i
-Active power measurement i
Width i = t (n−2, confidence interval) × √ (Ve) × √ (1 + 1 / n + (reactive power measurement value i-avg (reactive power measurement value i)) ² / Sxx)
Ve = Σ (Actual load active power estimate (regression) i-Active power measurement i) ² / (n-2)
Sxx = Σ (Reactive power measurement value i-avg (Reactive power measurement value i)) ²
Here, t (n−2, confidence interval) is a value obtained from the t distribution table. When n is infinite, a normal distribution is obtained, and when n is small, the width is wider than the normal distribution. Distribution. For example, when n is 12 and the confidence interval is 95%, it becomes 2.228, and when n is infinite and the confidence interval is 95%, it becomes 1.960. Note that Ve is a variance due to the residual, and as shown in the above formula, means the difference between the active power estimated value (regression) of the actual load and the active power measurement value. Sxx is a statistical index called deviation sum of squares.

  FIG. 13: is a conceptual diagram which shows the width | variety of the estimated value which the active power estimated value (regression) of an actual load takes in the power estimation apparatus (the 2) which concerns on embodiment of this invention. In FIG. 13, ◯ indicates the active power measured value i, △ indicates the actual load active power estimated value (regression) i, and the actual load active power estimated value (regression) i connects the △ mark. The value on the straight line. In FIG. 13, the upper left and lower right curves indicate the boundaries that guarantee the certainty of the estimated value defined by the formula for obtaining the above width i, and the difference between the two curves is the width of the estimated value by the double arrow line. Shown as i.

  FIG. 14 is a diagram showing the configuration of the power estimation apparatus (part 3) according to the embodiment of the present invention. The power estimation apparatus (part 3) 30 is configured by a general-purpose apparatus that processes information such as a computer, as in the configuration of the power estimation apparatus (part 1) 10 according to the embodiment of the present invention shown in FIG. Although not particularly shown, the device has a hardware configuration well known to those skilled in the art, such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a storage device (hard disk), a memory, a communication function unit, an input / output interface, and an input / output device. I have. A predetermined application program is stored in the storage device in advance, and the CPU reads and executes the application program to realize the functions of various processing units 31 to 39 described below. The configuration of the power distribution system according to the embodiment of the present invention is the same except that the power estimation device (part 1) 10 shown in FIG. 1 is replaced with the power estimation device (part 3) 30. The description of those that overlap is omitted. In addition, a bus for connecting the various processing units 31 to 39 is provided.

  In this power estimation apparatus (part 3) 30, for simplicity of explanation, estimation based on values measured by one wattmeter, for example, wattmeter P1, will be described. Since this method estimates the effective power consumed by the load downstream from the measurement point, the effective power consumed by the load for each section can be estimated by measuring each switch.

The data extraction processing unit 34 of the power estimation apparatus (part 3) 30 performs a process of extracting data for reconstruction matrix construction required by the restoration matrix construction processing unit 35 described later. For example, data extraction processing is performed using a combination of a plurality of extraction conditions as follows. This extraction condition is less than the extraction condition used in the data extraction processing unit 24 of the power estimation apparatus (part 2) 20 shown in FIG.
Extraction condition 1: Days within the past x days from the estimation target date (eg, x = 30)
Extraction condition 2: From t1 to t2 (eg t1 = 10, t2 = 16)
By the way, in the normal independent component analysis (ICA), continuous data (active power and reactive power) of several tens of minutes or several hours including the time to be estimated is used for estimation. However, in this example, the data does not have to be continuous in time. For example, data that is not continuous in time such as 13:00 to 14:00 on the previous day or 13:00 to 14:00 on the previous day is extracted. May be. The extracted data is specifically the following n pieces of data.

Active power measurement value i, reactive power measurement value i
Where i: 1 to n
The restoration matrix construction processing unit 35 performs processing for constructing a restoration matrix using the data (active power measurement value i and reactive power measurement value i) extracted as described above. Since this restoration matrix construction process is a general process of a normal ICA, a detailed description is omitted.

The estimation processing unit 1 (36) performs processing for separating the power consumed by the actual load (active power) and the photovoltaic power generation output using the restoration matrix constructed by the restoration matrix construction processing unit 35. Since the process of the estimation processing unit 1 (36) is a separation process using a normal independent component analysis, a detailed description is omitted (see Patent Document 5 described above if necessary). The data output by the processing of the estimation processing unit 1 (36) is as follows. That is,
Estimated active power of actual load (independent component analysis) i (where i is 1 to n)
The regression formula construction processing unit 37 uses the reactive power measurement value extracted by the data extraction processing unit 34 and the active power estimation value (independent component analysis) of the actual load output by the processing of the estimation processing unit 1 (36). To build a regression equation. In constructing the regression equation, as shown in FIG. 15, the active power is set to the Y coordinate, the reactive power is set to the X coordinate, and the actual load output by the processing of the estimation processing unit 1 (36) on the coordinates. By plotting the estimated active power value (independent component analysis), the following regression equation is obtained from the slope. That is, a0 and a1 of the following expression are obtained.

Estimated active power value of actual load (independent component analysis) = a0 + a1 reactive power measurement value Equation 3
And the estimation process part 2 (38) calculates | requires the estimated value based on the extracted data (The reactive power measured value extracted by the data extraction process part 34, active power measured value) using said regression equation (Formula 3). . That means
Actual load active power estimate (regression) i = a0 + a1 reactive power measurement i
Estimated active power for photovoltaic power generation i = Estimated active power for actual load (regression) i-Active power measured value i
The estimated width calculation processing unit 39 obtains the width of the estimated value obtained by the estimation processing unit 2 (38) using the regression equation (Equation 3). The formula for obtaining the width is as follows.

Actual load active power estimate (regression) width i = actual load active power estimate (regression) i ± width i
Width of estimated active power of photovoltaic power generation i = Width of estimated active power of actual load (regression) i -Measured active power i
Width i = t (n−2, confidence interval) × √ (Ve) × √ (1 + 1 / n + (reactive power measurement value i-avg (reactive power measurement value i)) ² / Sxx)
Ve = Σ (estimated active power of actual load (regression) i-estimated active power of actual load (independent component analysis) i) ² / (n-2)
Sxx = Σ (Reactive power measurement value i-avg (Reactive power measurement value i)) ²
Here, t (n−2, confidence interval) is a value obtained from the t distribution table. When n is infinite, a normal distribution is obtained, and when n is small, the width is wider than the normal distribution. Distribution. For example, when n is 12 and the confidence interval is 95%, it becomes 2.228, and when n is infinite and the confidence interval is 95%, it becomes 1.960. Note that Ve is the variance due to the residual, and as shown in the above equation, means the difference between the active power estimated value (regression) of the actual load and the active power estimated value obtained by independent component analysis. Sxx is a statistical index called deviation sum of squares.

  FIG. 16 is a conceptual diagram illustrating a width of an estimated value taken by an active power estimated value of an actual load in the power estimating apparatus (part 3) according to the embodiment of the present invention. In FIG. 16, ◯ indicates the actual load active power estimated value (independent component analysis) i, Δ indicates the actual load active power estimated value (regression) i, and the actual load active power estimated value ( (Regression) i is a value on a straight line connecting Δ marks. In FIG. 16, the upper left and lower right curves indicate the boundaries that guarantee the certainty of the estimated value determined by the formula for obtaining the width i, and the difference between the two curves is the width of the estimated value by the double arrow line. Shown as i.

1 Substation
10-30 Power estimation device
11, 21, 31 Input processor
12, 22, 32 Data storage processor
13, 23, 33 Output processor
14 Accident section judgment section
15 Estimation processing unit
16 Estimated width processing section
17 Accident recovery processing department
18 Bus
24, 34 Data extraction processing section
25, 37 Regression formula construction processing section
26 Estimator
27, 39 Estimated width calculation processor
35 Restoration matrix construction processor
36 Estimator 1
38 Estimator 2
200 Reactive power compensator
300 Switch S5
400 Switch S6
P1 to P4 Wattmeter
S1 ~ S4 (Division) Switch

Claims (13)

In an accident recovery method for a power system in which multiple distributed power sources and loads are connected to a distribution line,
Providing a plurality of division switches to divide the distribution line into a plurality of sections;
Measuring the load for each section on the distribution line and storing it in a storage device provided in the estimation means, and storing the maximum allowable capacity of the distribution system in the storage device in advance,
Estimating a distributed power output and load power consumption immediately before an accident for each section based on the measured load stored in a storage device provided in the estimation means;
After the accident, identifying an accident section of the distribution system; and
After identifying the fault section of the power distribution system, use the estimated power consumption value of the load in the fault section, and recover the accident when the estimation means operates the section switch in a range not exceeding the maximum allowable capacity of the power distribution system Step,
An accident recovery method for a distribution system characterized by including:   The estimated power consumption value estimated by the estimating means has an estimated value width (margin ratio) that does not cause an overload at the time of accident recovery, and the step of recovering from the accident includes the estimated value width (margin). The accident recovery method for a power distribution system according to claim 1, wherein only the estimated power consumption value of the load including the rate is recovered from the accident.   The step of estimating the distributed power output and load power consumption immediately before the accident for each section is obtained by plotting the power consumption of the load apparatus for each section stored in the storage device and the temperature at the time on the coordinate axis. The power distribution system accident recovery method according to claim 1, wherein the power consumption of the load device and the output of the distributed power source are estimated using the scatter diagram.   The accident recovery of the distribution system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein a value obtained by excluding the estimated output of the distributed power source from the estimated power consumption of each section in the accident section is used for accident recovery. Method. When the high-voltage distributed power supply device has a means for measuring the output of the high-voltage distributed power supply connected to the high-voltage side,
The estimated power consumption of each section of the accident section is subtracted from the estimated output of the distributed power source, and a value obtained by adding the measured value of the output of the high-voltage system distributed power source to the value is used for accident recovery. A method for recovering from an accident in a power distribution system according to any one of claims 1 to 3.   The estimated power consumption value of the load estimated by the estimating means has an estimated value width (margin ratio) that does not become an overload at the time of the accident recovery, and the step of recovering the accident only by the estimated power consumption value of the load is: 6. The accident recovery method for a power distribution system according to claim 4 or 5, wherein only the estimated power consumption value of the load including the estimated value width (margin ratio) is recovered. In a power system in which a plurality of distributed power sources and a plurality of load devices are connected to a distribution line,
Means for providing a plurality of division switches to divide the distribution line into a plurality of sections;
Means for measuring active power and reactive power for each section on the distribution line and storing them in a storage device provided in the estimating means;
Means for estimating the active power of the load device for each section by a regression equation from the distributed power and the reactive power of the load device for each of the sections stored in the storage device;
Means for calculating a width of the estimated value for the active power estimated value of the load device for each of the sections estimated by the regression equation;
An actual load estimation device for a power distribution system comprising: Means for estimating the active power of the distributed power source based on the active power estimate value of the load device for each section obtained by the regression equation;
Means for calculating a width of the estimated value for the active power estimated value of the distributed power source for each of the sections estimated by the regression equation;
The actual load estimation device for a distribution system according to claim 7, further comprising: In a power system in which a plurality of distributed power sources and a plurality of load devices are connected to a distribution line,
Providing a plurality of division switches to divide the distribution line into a plurality of sections;
Measuring the active power and reactive power for each section on the distribution line and storing them in a storage device provided in the estimating means;
Estimating the active power of the load device for each section from the distributed power and the reactive power of the load device for each section stored in the storage device by a regression equation; and
Calculating an estimated value width for the active power estimated value of the load device for each section estimated by the regression equation;
A method for estimating an actual load of a power distribution system. Estimating the active power of the distributed power source based on the active power estimate value of the load device for each section obtained by the regression equation;
Calculating a width of the estimated value for the active power estimated value of the distributed power source for each section estimated by the regression equation;
The actual load estimation method for a power distribution system according to claim 9, comprising: Separating the active power of the load device or the output of the distributed power source using independent component analysis from the measured active power and reactive power;
From the active power of the separated load device or the active power of the distributed power source and the measured reactive power, the effective power of the load device or the active power of the distributed power source is calculated using the regression equation. Estimating
Calculating the estimated effective power of the load device or the estimated value width of the active power of the distributed power source; and
The distribution system actual load estimation method according to claim 9 or 10, further comprising: In a power system in which a plurality of distributed power sources and a plurality of load devices are connected to a distribution line,
The power system includes an estimation device that estimates an actual load of a distribution system, and the computer of the estimation device includes:
Means for providing a plurality of division switches to divide the distribution line into a plurality of sections;
Means for measuring active power and reactive power for each section on the distribution line and storing them in a storage device;
Means for estimating the active power of the load device for each section by a regression equation from the distributed power and the reactive power of the load device for each of the sections stored in the storage device;
Means for calculating a width of the estimated value for the active power estimated value of the load device for each of the sections estimated by the regression equation;
Program to function as. In a power system in which a plurality of distributed power sources and a plurality of load devices are connected to a distribution line,
The power system includes an estimation device that estimates an actual load of a distribution system, and the computer of the estimation device includes:
Means for providing a plurality of division switches to divide the distribution line into a plurality of sections;
Means for measuring active power and reactive power for each section on the distribution line and storing them in a storage device;
Means for estimating the active power of the load device for each section by a regression equation from the distributed power and the reactive power of the load device for each of the sections stored in the storage device;
Means for calculating a width of the estimated value for the active power estimated value of the load device for each of the sections estimated by the regression equation;
Means for estimating the active power of the distributed power source based on the active power estimate value of the load device for each section obtained by the regression equation;
Means for calculating the width of the estimated value for the active power estimated value of the distributed power source for each of the sections estimated by the regression equation;
Program to function as.