JP2015094665A5

JP2015094665A5 -

Info

Publication number: JP2015094665A5
Application number: JP2013234124A
Authority: JP
Filing date: 2013-11-12
Publication date: 2016-09-23
Anticipated expiration: 2033-11-12

Claims

A water leakage investigation plan drafting device for drafting a water leakage investigation plan for a plurality of areas divided into water pipe networks,
A measurement information collection unit that collects measurement information related to the flow rate of water from a measurement device including a flow meter installed in the water pipe network;
A water usage storage unit for storing water usage information in the area;
A leakage amount estimation unit that estimates a leakage amount of water in the area based on the measurement information and the water usage information;
A pipeline information storage unit that accumulates pipeline information including extension information of the water pipe network in the area;
An investigation / repair information storage unit for accumulating investigation / repair information including the timing of water leakage investigation and pipeline repair in the area;
A prediction model learning unit that generates prediction model information for predicting a transition of the amount of water leakage in the area based on at least one of the information on the amount of water leakage, the pipeline information, and the investigation / repair information;
A water leakage amount prediction unit that generates predicted water leakage amount information of the area based on the prediction model information;
A survey plan drafting unit that formulates a leak survey plan that determines the execution order of the leak survey in the plurality of areas based on the predicted leak amount information;
The leakage amount prediction unit
Generating predicted values of both the expected value of the leakage amount and the uncertainty of the expected value of the leakage amount as the predicted leakage amount information;
The investigation planning department
The water leakage investigation plan planning device, wherein the water leakage investigation plan is planned using a water leakage cost calculated on the basis of both the expected value and the uncertainty of the leakage amount.

A water leakage investigation planning apparatus according to claim 1,
The leakage amount prediction unit
As the predicted value of the uncertainty of the expected value of the water leakage amount, both predicted values of the high value and low value of the water leakage amount are generated,
The prediction model learning unit
As the prediction model information, a prediction formula for predicting a high value and a low value of the water leakage amount and a coefficient of the prediction formula are generated.

A water leakage investigation planning apparatus according to claim 2,
The leakage amount prediction unit
If the predictive model that can be applied to one area there are a plurality,
A leakage survey planning apparatus characterized by selecting and generating predicted leakage amount information in which the difference between the high value of the leakage amount and the low value of the leakage amount is the smallest among the corresponding prediction models.

A water leakage investigation planning apparatus according to claim 3,
The prediction model learning unit
Each prediction model of the prediction model information to be generated is
An area-specific prediction model that can be applied to a specific area, and a general-purpose prediction model that can be applied to a plurality of areas by substituting explanatory variables of the area calculated based on the pipe line information and the investigation / repair information; Either
The coefficient for determining the general-purpose prediction model is learned based on the coefficient of the area-specific prediction model previously determined.

A water leakage investigation planning apparatus according to claim 4,
The investigation planning department
Establish a period for conducting water leakage surveys in each area during the planning period,
The survey planning unit has a first restriction condition in which the total number of areas where the water leakage survey is simultaneously performed in each period of the planning target period is equal to or less than a predetermined number of water leakage survey teams;
Develop a water leakage investigation plan that satisfies the second constraint that the period for conducting a water leakage investigation in one area is secured continuously for the period required to complete the water leakage investigation for the entire area. Leakage investigation planning equipment characterized by

The water leakage investigation planning apparatus according to claim 5,
The investigation planning department
The water leakage investigation plan planning device, wherein the water leakage investigation plan is designed to minimize the total cost with respect to the total cost composed of the sum of the water leakage cost and the investigation cost.

A water leakage investigation planning apparatus according to claim 6,
The investigation planning department
When evaluating the leakage cost is an evaluation index,
In the predicted amount of water leakage in each area, set a parameter that represents the uncertainty between the high and low values,
An apparatus for planning a water leakage investigation characterized by evaluating the relationship between the parameter and the water leakage cost.

The water leakage investigation planning apparatus according to claim 7,
The prediction model learning unit
As the explanatory variable used for learning the general-purpose prediction model,
Of the number of leak repairs in the area, the number of reported leak repairs in the area, the number of water supply pipes in the area, the age of the oldest pipes in the area, the number of aging pipes, and the total length of aging pipes A water leakage survey planning device characterized by using at least one.

A water leakage investigation planning apparatus according to claim 1;
Measuring devices including flowmeters that transmit measurement information to the water leakage investigation planning device,
And a survey terminal for transmitting survey / repair information including the location of the leak found in the leak survey to the leak survey planning device.

A water leakage investigation plan drafting method for drafting a water leakage investigation plan for a plurality of areas divided into water pipe networks,
A collection step for collecting measurement information relating to the flow rate of water;
A storage step for storing water usage information in the area;
An estimation step of estimating a water leakage amount in the area based on the measurement information and the water usage information;
A pipeline information storage step for storing pipeline information including extension information of the water pipe network in the area;
Investigation / repair information accumulation step for accumulating investigation / repair information including the time for conducting water leakage investigation and pipeline repair in the area;
A predictive model information generating step of generating a prediction model information for predicting a transition of leakage amount of the area based on at least one information among said leakage amount of information and the conduit information the survey and repair information,
A predicted water leak information generation step for generating predicted water leak information of the area based on the prediction model information;
And a planning step for formulating a water leakage investigation plan that determines an execution order of water leakage investigations in the plurality of areas based on the predicted water leakage information,
The predicted water leakage information generation step includes
Generating predicted values of both the expected value of the leakage amount and the uncertainty of the expected value of the leakage amount as the predicted leakage amount information;
The planning step includes
The water leakage investigation plan planning method characterized in that the water leakage investigation plan is drafted using a water leakage cost calculated based on both predicted values and uncertainties of the water leakage amount.