JP2014134360A - Room temperature estimation device and program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To make it possible to estimate the temperature of a room in a building from a measured outside temperature without making a computer simulation.SOLUTION: A room temperature estimation device 10 includes: a storage unit 13; a prediction formula generation unit 15; a prediction transition acquisition unit 16; and a room temperature estimation unit 17. The prediction formula generation unit 15 generates a plurality of regression prediction formulas each representing a relation between room temperature data and outside temperature data for each time using the room temperature and outside temperature data at each of a plurality of time for a plurality of days in a predetermined extraction period stored in the storage unit 13, as prediction formulas, respectively. The room temperature estimation unit 17 obtains an outside temperature on a date of interest from a transition of the outside temperature acquired by the prediction transition acquisition unit 16, and estimates a room temperature by applying the outside temperature to the prediction formula at the time corresponding to the date.

Description

  The present invention relates to a room temperature estimation device that predicts the room temperature of a date and time of interest, and a program that causes a computer to function as the room temperature estimation device.

  2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, a technique for setting a room temperature to a desired set temperature at a scheduled time by using a transition of the room temperature and a predicted outside air temperature is known (for example, see Patent Document 1). In addition, regarding the room temperature of the vehicle, a technology is known that predicts a change in the room temperature from the estimated change in the amount of solar radiation and the measured outside air temperature and room temperature, and notifies when the room temperature is predicted to reach a predetermined threshold. (For example, refer to Patent Document 2).

  Patent Document 1 describes a technique for predicting a change in room temperature based on the measured history of room temperature when the information on the environment to be measured is room temperature. Further, in Patent Document 1, the operation start time and the heating start time of the heating device are determined from the predicted changes in the room temperature and the outside air temperature, the heating heat load amount and the heating capacity required for the heating device. That is, a predicted value of the room temperature and the outside air temperature is obtained, and a heating heat load amount for making the room temperature a desired set temperature is obtained based on the predicted value.

  On the other hand, Patent Document 2 predicts the temperature in the vehicle interior by using the amount of solar radiation that is predicted in conjunction with the measured room temperature and outside air temperature when the measured environment information is room temperature and outside air temperature. The technology is described.

JP-A-6-42765 JP-A-2005-343386

  The configuration described in Patent Document 1 describes that the room temperature and the outside air temperature are predicted in order to obtain the heating device heat load. However, the prediction of the room temperature is based on the history, and other conditions that determine the room temperature are described. A technique for predicting room temperature using factors is not described.

  In addition, the configuration described in Patent Document 2 is a technique for predicting the temperature in the vehicle interior, and the temperature in the vehicle interior follows the change in the outside air temperature in a short time. It is relatively easy to predict the temperature. However, the temperature of the building room does not change immediately even if the outside air temperature changes, and depends on the thermal characteristics such as the thermal insulation performance of the room. It is difficult to predict the room temperature from the outside temperature.

  On the other hand, a technique for performing computer simulation is known in order to determine the room temperature of a building from various factors such as the outside air temperature, the heat insulation performance of the building, solar radiation, ventilation, rainfall, and the presence of people. However, this kind of computer simulation requires a lot of information and may contain information that needs another measurement to get an accurate value. Cannot be used conveniently.

  An object of the present invention is to provide a room temperature estimation device that estimates the room temperature of a room in a building without performing computer simulation based on the measured environment information, and further, a program for causing a computer to function as a room temperature estimation device The purpose is to provide.

  The room temperature estimation apparatus according to the present invention includes a room temperature acquisition unit that acquires room temperature data from a room temperature measurement unit, an outside air temperature acquisition unit that acquires outside temperature data from an outside air temperature measurement unit, and the room temperature acquired by the room temperature acquisition unit And a storage unit that stores the outside temperature data acquired by the outside temperature acquisition unit in association with the date and time when each is measured, and a plurality of days in a predetermined extraction period stored in the storage unit. About the outside air temperature, which uses the room temperature and outside air temperature data for each time at the time, and obtains a plurality of regression prediction expressions representing the relationship between the room temperature data and the outside air temperature data for each time as a prediction expression, and the outside air temperature A prediction transition acquisition unit that acquires a predicted transition, and a time when the prediction formula generation unit obtains the outside temperature at the time of interest using the transition of the outside temperature acquired by the prediction transition acquisition unit Characterized in that it comprises a room temperature estimating unit for estimating a room temperature by fitting the prediction expression in.

  In this room temperature estimation device, the extraction period is determined for each divided period divided into a plurality of years based on the weather environment, and the room temperature estimating unit determines the room temperature in the divided period for the divided period. It is desirable to apply the prediction formula obtained using room temperature and outside temperature data during the extraction period.

  The room temperature estimation apparatus further includes a correction information acquisition unit that acquires the correction information that affects the room temperature in addition to the outside temperature and is selected from a plurality of states, and the room temperature estimation unit includes the correction information acquisition unit. It is preferable that the prediction formula obtained for the state is selected from the plurality of prediction formulas obtained for each state of the acquired correction information, and the room temperature is estimated using the selected prediction formula.

  The room temperature estimation apparatus preferably further includes a notification output unit that outputs the room temperature estimated by the room temperature estimation unit to a notification device.

  In this room temperature estimating apparatus, it is preferable that the outside air temperature acquisition unit acquires outside air temperature data provided through a telecommunication line.

  The program according to the present invention is for causing a computer to function as any one of the room temperature estimation devices described above.

  According to the configuration of the present invention, there is an advantage that the room temperature of a room in a building can be estimated only by information that can be easily measured without performing computer simulation.

1 is a block diagram illustrating a first embodiment. It is a figure for demonstrating a principle same as the above. It is a figure for demonstrating a principle same as the above. FIG. 6 is a block diagram illustrating a second embodiment. It is a figure for demonstrating a principle same as the above. FIG. 6 is a block diagram illustrating a third embodiment.

  Below, the technique of estimating the room temperature when not performing indoor air conditioning by using the transition of the predicted outside air temperature will be exemplified. Factors that determine the room temperature in the state where air conditioning is not performed are the outside air temperature, the thermal insulation performance of the room, solar radiation, ventilation, rainfall, the number of people in the room, and the like.

  The thermal insulation performance of the room is a characteristic of the house, and can be obtained from the construction method of the house or the building materials used in the house, but it is not easy to measure quantitatively. Although the number of people in a room can be measured, the degree to which the room temperature is raised is not constant depending on the amount of metabolism and the amount of clothes of each person, so it is not easy to theoretically obtain the relationship between the number of people and the room temperature. Similarly, solar radiation, ventilation, and rainfall can be monitored, but it is not easy to theoretically determine the effect on room temperature.

  In short, it is possible to measure factors that determine room temperature, but it is not easy to create an appropriate model that links these factors to room temperature. Therefore, it is not easy to obtain the room temperature by computer simulation from the measured values for these factors. In addition, when estimating the room temperature by computer simulation, in order to obtain the required degree of accuracy, there is a lot of information to be input and correction is necessary. Requires a lot of effort.

  Hereinafter, a room temperature estimation apparatus that estimates room temperature with relatively good accuracy from information that can be easily measured without performing computer simulation using a complex model will be described.

(Embodiment 1)
In the present embodiment, as a simple example, a technique for estimating the room temperature only from the outside temperature will be described. In the embodiment described later, a technique for estimating the room temperature in consideration of solar radiation, ventilation, rainfall, and the number of people in the room will be described. The room temperature estimation apparatus of this embodiment estimates the room temperature at the date and time of interest from the outside air temperature using a prediction formula that relates the outside air temperature and the room temperature. Therefore, the room temperature estimation apparatus includes a configuration for obtaining a prediction formula and a configuration for estimating the room temperature from the outside temperature using the prediction formula.

  This room temperature estimation apparatus includes a device including a processor that realizes the following functions by executing a program and an interface device as main hardware elements. As a device including a processor, a microcomputer incorporating a memory, a processor having an external memory, and the like are used. In addition, a computer that executes a program that implements the following functions can function as a room temperature estimation device. This type of program is provided as a computer-readable recording medium or by communication through an electric communication line.

  In order to obtain the prediction formula, it is necessary to measure the room temperature and the outside air temperature in association with the date and time. Therefore, as shown in FIG. 1, the room temperature estimation apparatus includes a room temperature acquisition unit 11 that acquires room temperature data from the room temperature measurement unit 21, and an outside air temperature acquisition unit 12 that acquires outside temperature data from the outside air temperature measurement unit 22. Is provided.

  The room temperature measurement unit 21 and the outside air temperature measurement unit 22 each include a temperature sensor that can obtain an analog output corresponding to the ambient temperature, such as a thermistor, and a sensor amplifier that amplifies the output of the temperature sensor. The room temperature measurement unit 21 and the outside air temperature measurement unit 22 are a conversion unit that converts the output of the sensor amplifier into digital value data, and a communication unit that transmits the digital value data output from the conversion unit to the room temperature estimation device 10. With.

  The room temperature measurement unit 21 and the outside air temperature measurement unit 22 may have a configuration in which the communication unit is omitted, or a configuration in which the conversion unit and the communication unit are omitted, but accurately transmit the measurement value to the room temperature estimation apparatus 10. Therefore, it is desirable to include a conversion unit and a communication unit. When the conversion unit is omitted, the room temperature measurement unit 21 and the outside air temperature measurement unit 22 provide analog value data to the room temperature estimation device 10.

  The communication between the room temperature measurement unit 21 and the outside air temperature measurement unit 22 and the room temperature estimation apparatus 10 desirably uses a wireless communication path using radio waves as a transmission medium, but can also use a wired communication path. Further, the room temperature measurement unit 21 may share a housing with the room temperature estimation device 10. When the room temperature measurement unit 21 shares the case with the room temperature estimation device 10, a communication unit is not necessary for the room temperature measurement unit 21.

  The room temperature data acquired by the room temperature acquisition unit 11 and the outside air temperature data acquired by the outside air temperature acquisition unit 12 are stored in the storage unit 13 in association with the date and time when each was measured. That is, the storage unit 13 stores two types of pairs (room temperature, date and time) (outside temperature, date and time), or stores a triple of (room temperature, outside temperature, date and time). The latter has a smaller amount of data and saves the storage capacity of the storage unit 13.

  The date and time stored in the storage unit 13 is measured by the clock unit 14 provided in the room temperature estimation device 10. The room temperature acquisition unit 11 and the outside air temperature acquisition unit 12 have preset date and time for acquiring room temperature and outside air temperature data, and use the date and time counted by the clock unit 14 to acquire data at, for example, every hour. In this case, the storage unit 13 preferably stores a triplet of (room temperature, outside temperature, date and time).

  The time interval at which the room temperature acquisition unit 11 and the outside air temperature acquisition unit 12 acquire data does not have to be every hour, but is selected as needed from 10 minutes, 15 minutes, 30 minutes, 2 hours, and the like. If the time interval is short, the amount of information increases, and a prediction formula with high estimation accuracy can be obtained. However, the amount of data stored in the storage unit 13 also increases. For this reason, it is preferable to set the time interval for acquiring data within a range from a fraction of an hour to several times with respect to one hour.

  The room temperature measuring unit 21 and the outside air temperature measuring unit 22 may each be provided with a clock unit that measures the date and time. In this case, the room temperature measurement unit 21 and the outside air temperature measurement unit 22 transmit the room temperature and outside air temperature data acquired on the date and time that each clock unit is measuring to the room temperature estimation device 10. That is, the room temperature measurement unit 21 and the outside air temperature measurement unit 22 transmit the room temperature and outside air temperature data to the room temperature estimation apparatus 10 in association with the date and time that each clock unit keeps timing.

  In this configuration, the storage unit 13 preferably stores two types of pairs (room temperature, date / time) (outside temperature, date / time). Here, the timing at which the room temperature measuring unit 21 and the outside air temperature measuring unit 22 transmit the room temperature and outside air temperature data does not have to be the date and time at which the room temperature and the outside air temperature are measured. It is possible to send them together.

  By the way, when the room temperature remains unaffected by solar radiation and the change in the outside air temperature is small, the amount of heat flowing into the room and the amount of heat flowing out of the room are almost in equilibrium, and the outside air temperature at the same time And the hypothesis that room temperature is almost linear.

  The inventor measured room temperature and outside air temperature at a plurality of times for a plurality of days over a relatively long period, and graphed the relationship between the room temperature and the outside air temperature for each time, as shown in FIG. At the time of, we found that the outside air temperature and room temperature are almost linear. That is, the present inventors have found that the room temperature at a specific time can be expressed by a prediction function of a linear function with the outside air temperature as a variable, and the room temperature can be estimated from the outside air temperature using this prediction expression.

  The room temperature estimation apparatus 10 includes a prediction formula generation unit 15 that generates a prediction formula using the outside air temperature and room temperature at specific times on a plurality of days. The prediction formula generation unit 15 extracts room temperature and outside temperature data at a specific time for a plurality of days in a predetermined extraction period stored in the storage unit 13, and returns from the room temperature and outside temperature data at the same time on a plurality of days. An equation is obtained and this regression equation is used as a prediction equation.

  Since the prediction formula is predicted to be a linear function of the outside air temperature, the room temperature and outside air temperature data used for generating the regression equation needs three days or more. That is, the extraction period needs to include a plurality of days of 3 days or more, and for example, it is desirable to select from the range of 15 to 90 days. The lower limit of 15 days is the number of days corresponding to one moderation, and the upper limit of 90 days is the number of days corresponding to one season in spring, summer, autumn and winter. This number of days is an example, and for example, even if a prediction formula is generated using room temperature and outside temperature data measured every day, once every two days, once a week, etc. for one to several years. Good.

  The prediction formula generation unit 15 uses the fact that a linear relationship is established between the room temperature θ1 (t) and the outside air temperature θ2 (t) at the time t of interest in the extraction period, and θ1 (t) = α · θ2 (t ) Generate a prediction formula of the form + β. When generating the prediction formula, the room temperature θ1 (t) and the outside temperature θ2 (t) are fitted to a linear function using a known method such as the least square method. That is, the prediction formula generation unit 15 obtains a regression prediction formula from data on the room temperature θ1 (t) and the outside air temperature θ2 (t) at the time t of interest in the extraction period. The coefficients α and β are usually different from the coefficients α and β included in the prediction formula generated by the first prediction formula generation unit 151.

  In this regression prediction formula, the outside air temperature at the time is used as an explanatory variable, and the room temperature at the time is used as a dependent variable. However, the time for obtaining the regression prediction formula is selected from a time zone in which the room temperature is not affected by solar radiation and depends only on the outside air temperature, and the fluctuation of the outside air temperature is relatively gradual. That is, an early morning time zone before sunrise is desirable. The prediction formula generation unit 15 uses the regression prediction formula obtained as described above as a prediction formula for obtaining the room temperature from the outside air temperature. Moreover, the prediction formula production | generation part 15 calculates | requires each regression prediction formula about several time, and uses it for the prediction formula in each time.

  The room temperature estimation device 10 generates a prediction formula by the method described above, and estimates the room temperature from the outside air temperature using the prediction formula. Below, the structure which estimates room temperature from external temperature in the room temperature estimation apparatus 10 is demonstrated. The room temperature estimation device 10 includes an expected transition acquisition unit 16 that acquires an expected transition of the outside temperature using a time series of outside temperature data acquired by the outside temperature acquisition unit 12 from the outside temperature measurement unit 22, and an outside temperature And a room temperature estimation unit 17 for estimating the room temperature from the transition.

  The predicted transition acquisition unit 16 fits the time series of the outside air temperature data to one of a plurality of types (templates) of the transition of the outside air temperature registered in advance, and uses the fitted representatives to calculate the outside air temperature. Predict the transition. The prediction transition acquisition unit 16 narrows down the typical to be applied in consideration of the weather and season of the day when fitting the time series of the outside temperature data to the typical of the transition of the outside temperature.

  The transition of the outside air temperature may be acquired by the outside air temperature acquiring unit 12 through an electric communication line such as the Internet instead of using the outside air temperature data acquired by the outside air temperature acquiring unit 12 from the outside air temperature measuring unit 22. That is, the outside air temperature acquisition unit 12 has a function of acquiring outside air temperature data through a telecommunication line from a service provider that provides weather information for each region. When this configuration is adopted, the predicted transition acquisition unit 16 uses data on the outside air temperature acquired by the outside air temperature acquisition unit 12 from the service provider.

  It should be noted that the outside temperature data provided through the telecommunication line is data on a specific point in the area where the room for which the room temperature is to be estimated exists and is not the outside temperature for the room, but the outside temperature for the room is not It is expected that there is a linear relationship with temperature. Therefore, if the room temperature estimation unit 17 calibrates the room temperature estimated from the outside air temperature data based on the measured room temperature value, the room temperature estimating unit 17 can estimate the room temperature using the outside air temperature data acquired through the telecommunication line. It is.

  The room temperature estimation unit 17 uses the predicted transition of the outside temperature acquired by the predicted transition acquisition unit 16 to determine the outside temperature at the date and time of interest. When the outside air temperature is obtained, the room temperature estimating unit 17 estimates the room temperature by fitting the obtained outside air temperature to the prediction formula generated by the prediction formula generating unit 15. That is, the room temperature estimation unit 17 obtains the outside air temperature obtained for the date and time when the room temperature is to be estimated using the predicted transition of the outside air temperature, and fits the outside air temperature to the prediction formula, thereby Estimate room temperature.

  The room temperature estimation device 10 preferably includes a notification output unit 18 that outputs the room temperature estimated by the room temperature estimation unit 17 to the alarm device 23. In addition to a dedicated device provided with a display device, the alarm device 23 may be a device provided with a display device and having a communication function, such as a smartphone, a tablet terminal, and a personal computer. When these devices are used as the alarm device 23, the notification output unit 18 is configured to communicate with these devices. Note that the alarm 23 may be provided integrally with the casing of the room temperature estimation device 10 like the alarm 23 indicated by a broken line in FIG.

  Further, the room temperature estimated by the room temperature estimating unit 17 is not only notified to the user by the alarm device 23 but also of a device that affects the room temperature, such as a ventilation fan, an air conditioner, an electric shutter, an electric curtain, and an electric window. It may be used for control. In particular, when air conditioning is controlled by an air conditioner (for example, an air conditioner), when the room temperature is estimated based on the transition of the outside air temperature, it becomes possible to appropriately determine the timing for stopping the operation of the air conditioner. In addition, it is possible to reduce energy consumed for air conditioning.

  For example, in the summer, when it is predicted that the room temperature can be maintained at a comfortable room temperature even when the cooling apparatus is stopped at night, it is possible to waste the cooling apparatus by determining the time to stop the operation of the cooling apparatus. It is possible to prevent unnecessary operation and save energy. Similarly, if the room temperature rises in the daytime in winter and it is predicted that the room temperature can be maintained at a comfortable level even if the heating system is stopped, the time for stopping the operation of the heating system can be determined. It is possible to save energy by preventing unnecessary driving.

  By the way, the prediction formula generated by the prediction formula generation unit 15 is easily predicted to change depending on the season. For example, in FIG. 2, the left side shows the relationship between room temperature and outside temperature in winter, and the right side shows the relationship between room temperature and outside temperature in summer. At first glance, the left group and the right group are the same. It seems that it can be expressed by a linear function. However, when the left group and the right group are respectively fitted to a linear function, prediction formulas (respectively indicated by straight lines) are obtained for each group as shown in FIG.

  Therefore, it is desirable to determine the extraction period for measuring the room temperature and the outside temperature used for generating the prediction formula for each season. Therefore, the extraction period is set for each divided period set by dividing one year into a plurality of periods. It is desirable that the division period is appropriately selected from a period in which one year is divided into 4 to 24 (4 division is a unit reflecting spring, summer, autumn and winter, and 24 division is a unit reflecting air saving). The number of days in the divided period is 15 to 90 days, and the extraction period may be three days or more for each divided period, and the prediction expression generation unit 15 generates the number of prediction expressions corresponding to the number of extraction periods. .

  On the other hand, the room temperature estimation unit 17 selects a prediction formula generated for the same extraction period from a plurality of prediction formulas obtained for each extraction period, and estimates the room temperature from the transition of the outside air temperature using the selected prediction formula.

(Embodiment 2)
In the first embodiment, since the prediction formula generation unit 15 generates a prediction formula using the room temperature and the outside temperature in a time zone in which the room temperature is not affected by solar radiation, the room temperature is estimated from the outside temperature using the prediction formula. There is a limit to the time zone that can be done. That is, in a time zone in which the room temperature is affected by solar radiation, the room temperature cannot be estimated by the prediction formula obtained in the first embodiment, and the prediction formula obtained in the first embodiment is from midnight to early morning. It can be used only during times when the outside air temperature changes relatively little.

  This embodiment demonstrates the technique which sets the prediction formula which can be used in the daytime time slot when room temperature is influenced by solar radiation. Therefore, the prediction formula obtained by the technique of Embodiment 1 is adopted in a time zone in which it is not necessary to consider the influence of solar radiation at night, and the prediction formula described below is used in a time zone in which the influence of solar radiation is considered in the daytime. Is adopted. That is, this embodiment employs a configuration in which the prediction formula is changed between a time zone in which solar radiation does not affect room temperature (a time zone in which solar radiation does not affect the room) and a time zone in which solar radiation affects the room temperature. The prediction formula generation unit 15 in the room temperature estimation apparatus 10 has a function of generating two types of prediction formulas.

  As shown in FIG. 4, the room temperature estimation apparatus 10 generates a prediction formula generated by a first prediction formula generation unit 151 that generates a prediction formula using the same technique as in the first embodiment, and a technique described below. And a second prediction formula generation unit 152.

  The first prediction formula generation unit 151 generates a prediction formula in the same manner as the prediction formula generation unit 15 in the first embodiment. The first prediction formula generation unit 151 generates a regression prediction formula using room temperature and outside air temperature data at a specific time on a plurality of days stored in the storage unit 13, and uses the generated regression prediction formula as the prediction formula. .

  On the other hand, the second prediction formula generation unit 152 considers that the relationship between the room temperature and the outside air temperature depends on the thermal characteristics of the room (thermal insulation, heat storage, etc.), and calculates the prediction formula using the method described below. Generate. Now, assuming that the room temperature depends only on the outside air temperature, a model is assumed in which heat is conducted through a partition consisting of a wall, ceiling, and floor surrounding the room, and the room temperature changes following the outside air temperature. According to this model, the influence of the outside air temperature on the room temperature is considered to change according to the degree of heat conduction of the partition and the degree of heat storage of the partition. However, the room temperature is the temperature of the air in the room without considering the radiant heat from the partition.

  According to the model described above, the room temperature is considered to change with a delay in the change of the outside air temperature. As a result of the experiment, the present inventor has found that there is a correlation between a change in the outside air temperature and a change in the room temperature, and the room temperature is a delay time corresponding to the outside air temperature according to the thermal characteristics of the partition (insulation, heat storage, etc.) I got the knowledge that it changed with a delay. If this delay time can be obtained, the relationship between the room temperature at the time of interest and the outside air temperature at the time shifted by the delay time can be expressed by a simple prediction formula. We found that room temperature can be estimated.

  An example of the relationship between the room temperature and the outside temperature at the same date and time is shown in FIG. At first glance, it is impossible to find a relationship between room temperature and outside temperature. On the other hand, as described above, the present embodiment is based on the assumption that there is a correlation between the change in the outside air temperature and the change in the room temperature with a delay time corresponding to the thermal characteristics of the room.

  Therefore, the room temperature estimation apparatus 10 uses the room temperature data, the outside air temperature data, and the date and time stored in the storage unit 13 to determine the delay time at which the correlation coefficient between the room temperature and the outside air temperature is maximized. Is provided. The evaluation unit 19 relatively shifts the date / time at which the room temperature was measured and the date / time at which the outside temperature was measured for the room temperature data and the outside temperature data on the day of interest (referred to as “extraction date”), A delay time (hereinafter referred to as “time difference”) at which the correlation coefficient between the room temperature data and the outside air temperature data is maximized is obtained. The extraction date is not limited to one day and may be a plurality of days. Hereinafter, an example in which the outside air temperature is shifted based on the room temperature will be described. However, the room temperature may be shifted based on the outside air temperature.

  Here, the room temperature and outside air temperature data at date and time t are expressed as θ1 (t) and θ2 (t), respectively, and the time interval for acquiring the room temperature data θ1 (t) and the outside air temperature data θ2 (t) is p. Is written. The date and time t is expressed as t = t0 + n · p, and the time difference Δt is expressed as Δt = m · p. t0 is a reference value given according to the extraction date, and m and n are natural numbers.

  When the above-described notation is adopted, the room temperature data is expressed as θ1 (t0 + p), θ1 (t0 + 2p), θ1 (t0 + 3p),. (T0 + 3p),... Further, the data of the outside air temperature on the date and time before the time difference Δt with respect to the room temperature data θ1 (t0 + n · p) is θ2 (t0 + n · p−Δt) = θ1 {t0 + (n−m) p}.

  When the extraction date period is [t0 + p, t0 + q · p], the average value a (θ1) of the room temperature θ1 (t) in the extraction date period is θ1 {t0 + p}, θ1 {t0 + 2p},. p} is the average value. The average value a (θ2) of the outside air temperature θ2 (t) is θ2 (t0 + (1-m) p), θ2 (t0 + (2-m) p),... Θ2 (t0 + (q−m) p). Is the average value. [T0 + p, t0 + q · p] is a closed interval, and represents q discrete values of t0 + p, t0 + 2p, t0 + 3p,..., T0 + q · p.

  The evaluation unit 19 uses these values to correlate the room temperature θ1 (t) at the date and time t with the outside temperature data θ2 (t−Δt) at the date and time (t−Δt) before the time difference Δt. Ask for. The calculation of the correlation coefficient is a generally known calculation, and the covariance between θ1 (t) and θ2 (t−Δt) is expressed by the standard deviation of θ1 (t) and the standard deviation of θ2 (t−Δt). It is calculated by dividing by the product of. However, the above-described values are used as the average values a (θ1) and a (θ2) for obtaining the covariance and the standard deviation. The value of the closed interval [t0 + p, t0 + q · p] is used for the range of the date and time t in the room temperature data θ1 (t) and the outside air temperature θ2 (t−Δt).

  The evaluation unit 19 changes the value of m and obtains a correlation coefficient for each value of m. In the present embodiment, the maximum value of m is limited so that the product m · p with the time interval p does not exceed one day. For example, when the time interval p is 1 hour, the maximum value of m is limited so as not to exceed 24. The evaluation unit 19 calculates the time difference Δt as Δt = mm · p using the value mm of m when the correlation coefficient is maximized.

  Using the time difference Δt obtained by the evaluation unit 19 as described above, the relationship between the room temperature θ1 (t) and the outside air temperature θ2 (t−Δt) is obtained as shown in FIG. In the illustrated example, the room temperature θ1 (t) and the outside air temperature θ2 (t−Δt) have a substantially linear relationship, and it is expected that the room temperature θ1 (t) can be applied to a linear function.

  The 2nd prediction formula production | generation part 152 produces | generates the prediction formula for estimating room temperature from external temperature using the relationship shown in FIG.5 (b). The second prediction formula generation unit 152 extracts the extraction date data of interest from the room temperature data and the outside air temperature data stored in the storage unit 13, and the evaluation unit 19 obtains the extracted outside air temperature data. A time difference Δt is given. Furthermore, the second prediction formula generation unit 152 regards the relationship between the room temperature θ1 (t) and the outside air temperature θ2 (t−Δt) as a linear relationship, and θ1 (t) = α · θ2 (t−Δt) + β The coefficients α and β are determined by a known calculation such as the least square method. In this way, when the evaluation unit 19 obtains the time difference Δt and the second prediction formula generation unit 152 determines the coefficients α and β, a prediction formula is obtained.

  That is, the second prediction formula generation unit 152 uses the room temperature and outside air temperature data on the predetermined extraction date stored in the storage unit 13 to determine the time difference, and the room temperature data to which the time difference is given. And a prediction formula are generated from the outside temperature data.

  The prediction formula generated by the second prediction formula generation unit 152 can be applied regardless of whether the room temperature is affected by solar radiation. However, if the room temperature is a time zone that is not affected by solar radiation, the room temperature can be estimated from the outside temperature with relatively good accuracy by the prediction formula generated by the first prediction formula generation unit 151. Further, the first prediction formula generation unit 151 has a smaller processing load associated with the generation of the prediction formula than the second prediction formula generation unit 152.

  Therefore, the prediction formula generated by the first prediction formula generation unit 151 is adopted in the time zone in which the room temperature can be predicted by the prediction formula generated by the first prediction formula generation unit 151, and in other time zones. It is desirable to share the role so that the prediction formula generated by the second prediction formula generation unit 152 is used. That is, the prediction formula generated by the first prediction formula generation unit 151 is adopted in a time zone in which the room temperature is not affected by solar radiation (a time zone in which there is no solar radiation). The prediction formula generated by the second prediction formula generation unit 152 is adopted.

  When estimating the room temperature from the outside air temperature using the prediction formula generated by the second prediction formula generation unit 152, the room temperature estimation device 10 is only the time difference (delay time) obtained by the evaluation unit 19 with respect to the date and time of interest. It is necessary to acquire data on the outside temperature at the date and time. Here, the date and time of interest means the date and time when the room temperature is to be estimated.

  Therefore, the room temperature estimation unit 17 uses the predicted transition of the outside air temperature acquired by the prediction transition acquisition unit 16 and the time difference obtained by the evaluation unit 19 to obtain the outside air temperature that is traced back by the time difference from the date and time of interest. When the outside air temperature is obtained, the room temperature estimating unit 17 estimates the room temperature by fitting the obtained outside air temperature to the prediction expression generated by the prediction expression generating unit 15. That is, the room temperature estimation unit 17 obtains the outside air temperature at a time point that is back by the time difference obtained by the evaluation unit 19 from the date and time when the room temperature is to be estimated, using the predicted transition of the outside air temperature, and calculates the outside air temperature using a prediction formula. To estimate the room temperature of the date and time of interest.

  As is clear from the above description, the prediction formula generation unit 15 of the present embodiment includes a first prediction formula generation unit 151 and a second prediction formula generation unit 152. The room temperature estimation unit 17 determines whether the room temperature is not affected by solar radiation or whether the room temperature is affected by solar radiation according to the date and time that the clock unit 14 measures. The prediction formula generated by the first prediction formula generation unit 151 is employed in a time zone in which the room temperature is not affected by solar radiation, and the second prediction formula generation unit 152 is used in a time zone in which the room temperature is affected by solar radiation. The prediction formula generated by is adopted.

  In the first embodiment, it has been described that the prediction formula generated by the first prediction formula generation unit 151 changes depending on the season. The prediction formula generated by the second prediction formula generation unit 152 is also easily expected to change depending on the season. Therefore, it is desirable to determine the extraction date for measuring the room temperature and the outside temperature used for generating the prediction formula for each season.

  That is, a divided period in which one year is divided into a plurality of periods is set, and an extraction date is determined for each divided period. The division period is appropriately selected from a period in which one year is divided into 4 to 24 (4 division is a unit reflecting spring, summer, autumn and winter, and 24 division is a unit reflecting energy saving). The second prediction formula generation unit 152 generates a number of prediction formulas corresponding to the number of divided periods.

  Moreover, the room temperature estimation part 17 selects the prediction formula produced | generated regarding the same division period from the several prediction formula calculated | required for every division period, and estimates room temperature from transition of external temperature using the selected prediction formula. Since there is a possibility that the thermal characteristics of the room may change over time, the room temperature estimation unit 17 desirably uses the time difference obtained for each divided period when estimating the room temperature. However, the room temperature estimation unit 17 can estimate the room temperature using the time difference obtained in any divided period, and also estimates the room temperature using the average value of the time differences obtained in a plurality of divided periods. It is possible.

  As described above, the room temperature estimation unit 17 of the present embodiment uses different prediction formulas depending on whether or not the room temperature is affected by solar radiation, and also varies the outside temperature to be substituted into the prediction formula. Compared to the configuration of the first form, the prediction accuracy of the room temperature may be improved. Other configurations and operations are the same as those of the first embodiment.

(Embodiment 3)
In the first embodiment and the second embodiment, the room temperature estimation device 10 estimates the room temperature based only on the outside air temperature, but as described above, the factors that determine the room temperature are solar radiation, ventilation, rain, Includes the number of people in the room. In the case of air conditioning, if the air conditioning unit has a function of managing the room temperature, the room temperature depends on the operating state of the air conditioning unit and the room temperature cannot be predicted by a prediction formula. Is not considered.

  Considering information on solar radiation, ventilation, rainfall, and number of people in addition to outside air temperature, it is possible to set up a model that links these information and room temperature, and then digitize this information and apply it to the model. However, such a model has a complicated causal relationship and requires computer simulation. As a result, there arises a problem that parameters to be input increase and a processing load increases.

  Therefore, in the present embodiment, these pieces of information are used as correction information, and a prediction formula is set for each piece of correction information, thereby preventing an increase in parameters and an increase in processing load. That is, when using the correction information, the prediction formula generation unit 15 classifies the correction information into a plurality of stages for each correction information, and generates a prediction formula associated with a combination of these stages. In addition, although the example which applied the technical idea of this embodiment to the structure of Embodiment 1 shown in FIG. 1 is demonstrated, it is also possible to apply the technical idea of this embodiment to the structure of Embodiment 2. FIG.

  Here, solar radiation, ventilation, and rainfall are each divided into two stages of presence / absence, and regarding the number of persons, it is assumed that the room temperature per person is increased by a predetermined temperature (for example, 0.5 ° C.). If the types of correction information are simplified in this way, the number of combinations of correction information is finite and relatively small.

  The prediction formula generation unit 15 sets a prediction formula corresponding to each combination. That is, a prediction formula is generated by correcting the coefficients α and β of the prediction formula for obtaining the room temperature from the outside air temperature in accordance with solar radiation, ventilation, and rainfall. In addition, since the number of people in the room is reflected only in the coefficient β of the prediction formula, it is not necessary to generate a prediction formula for each number of people, and the room temperature estimation unit 17 adds the number of people at a predetermined temperature to the room temperature obtained from the prediction formula. Correction to be added may be performed. Therefore, in the above example, eight prediction formulas are generated from correction information of solar radiation, ventilation, and rainfall.

  As illustrated in FIG. 6, the room temperature estimation apparatus 10 includes a correction information acquisition unit 32 that acquires correction information from a solar radiation detection unit 33, a ventilation detection unit 34, a rainfall detection unit 35, and a number of people detection unit 36.

  The solar radiation detection unit 33 may include a light receiving element such as a photodiode or a phototransistor, and a determination unit that determines the light amount by comparing the output of the light receiving element with a threshold value. In addition, since the influence of solar radiation on the room also depends on the open / closed state of the curtain and shutter, it is desirable that the solar radiation detection unit 33 has a function of detecting the open / closed state of the curtain and shutter.

  The ventilation detector 34 is selected from a configuration for detecting whether or not the ventilation fan is in operation, a configuration for detecting the open / closed state of the window, a configuration for measuring the airflow in the room, and the like. The rain detection unit 35 employs a configuration that collects raindrops for each predetermined period and measures mass, or a configuration that detects raindrops from an outdoor image. Further, the correction information related to the rain may be obtained by information provided by the service provider through a telecommunication line such as the Internet. The number of persons detecting unit 36 employs a configuration that measures the number of persons in the room from the indoor image.

  In addition, about solar radiation, ventilation, and rainfall, not only the presence / absence, but also the degree may be expressed in a plurality of stages of three or more. For example, it is possible to divide solar radiation into four levels of strong, medium, weak and weak. The same applies to ventilation and rainfall, and it is possible to divide into three or more stages.

  The room temperature estimation unit 17 selects a prediction formula based on the correction information acquired by the correction information acquisition unit 32, and estimates the room temperature from the outside temperature using the selected prediction formula. Note that the correction amounts of the coefficients α and β according to solar radiation, ventilation, rainfall, and the number of people are statistically determined based on actually measured values. Other configurations and operations are the same as those in the first and second embodiments.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Room temperature estimation apparatus 11 Room temperature acquisition part 12 Outside temperature acquisition part 13 Memory | storage part 14 Clock part 15 Prediction formula production | generation part 16 Prediction transition acquisition part 17 Room temperature estimation part 18 Notification output part 19 Evaluation part 21 Room temperature measurement part 22 Outside temperature measurement part 23 Alarm 31 Determination Unit 32 Correction Information Acquisition Unit 161 First Prediction Formula Generation Unit 162 Second Prediction Formula Generation Unit

Claims (6)

A room temperature acquisition unit for acquiring room temperature data from the room temperature measurement unit;
An outside temperature acquisition unit that acquires outside temperature data from the outside temperature measurement unit;
A storage unit that stores the room temperature data acquired by the room temperature acquisition unit and the external temperature data acquired by the outside air temperature acquisition unit in association with the date and time when each was measured;
Using room temperature and outside air temperature data for each time at a plurality of times for a plurality of days in a predetermined extraction period stored in the storage unit, a plurality of times representing the relationship between the room temperature data and the outside air temperature data for each time A prediction formula generation unit that obtains each regression prediction formula as a prediction formula;
A predicted transition acquisition unit for acquiring a predicted transition of the outside temperature;
A room temperature estimation unit for estimating the room temperature by fitting the outside temperature at the time of interest using the transition of the outside temperature acquired by the prediction transition acquisition unit to the prediction formula at the time obtained by the prediction formula generation unit; Equipped with room temperature estimation device. The extraction period is determined for each divided period divided into one year based on the weather environment,
The room temperature estimation device according to claim 1, wherein the room temperature estimation unit applies the prediction formula obtained by using the room temperature and outside air temperature data in the extraction period determined in the division period to the room temperature prediction in the division period. . In addition to the outside temperature, it further includes a correction information acquisition unit that affects the room temperature and acquires correction information selected from a plurality of states,
The room temperature estimation unit selects the prediction formula obtained for the state from the plurality of prediction formulas obtained for each state of the correction information acquired by the correction information acquisition unit, and uses the selected prediction formula to select a room temperature The room temperature estimation device according to claim 1 or 2. The room temperature estimation apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising: a notification output unit that outputs the room temperature estimated by the room temperature estimation unit to a notification device. The room temperature estimation device according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the outside air temperature acquisition unit acquires outside air temperature data provided through a telecommunication line.   The program for functioning a computer as the room temperature estimation apparatus of any one of Claims 1-5.

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