JP2012194766A - Congestion degree estimation device and congestion degree estimation program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To precisely estimate a congestion degree at a procedure place where a passenger of a vehicle goes through procedure when proceeding to a loading place.SOLUTION: A proportion calculation section 108 calculates a proportion of the number of passengers arrived at a procedure place to the number of reservations for each prescribed time division with a departure time of a vehicle as a starting time of calculation based on the number of reservations and a departure time of a previous service which already departed as well as an arrival time when the passengers of the previous service arrived at the procedure place. A congestion estimation section 111 calculates, with the calculated proportion as statistical data, a forecast of the number of arrival passengers who arrive at the procedure place for each prescribed time division based on the number of reservations for an object service departing on an estimated date as well as the departure time and estimates a degree of congestion at the procedure place at an estimated time from the calculated forecast of the number of arrival passengers.

Description

  The present invention relates to a technique for estimating the degree of congestion of a procedural office to be processed when a visitor goes to a destination.

When using public transportation such as in a railway station or at an airport, the contents vary depending on the type of facility and transportation used, but there are facilities (procedure offices) where passengers who use public transportation always stop by and do some procedures. Exists. A business operator that operates public transportation needs to provide a sufficient number and processing capacity of the procedural offices where passengers carry out procedures in order to operate the provided transportation without delay.
In order to know in advance the number of procedural offices where passengers will perform procedures and how much processing power is required, it is necessary to simulate the degree of congestion indicating the degree of congestion at the procedural offices.

  Patent Document 1 describes the use of user data of past days with similar event conditions such as days of the week, holidays, weather, event dates, disaster occurrence dates, accident occurrence dates, etc. There is a description about a method of simulating the degree of congestion.

JP 2002-187551 A

In the method described in Patent Document 1, user data on the day of the week, whether it is a holiday, weather, event date, disaster occurrence date, accident occurrence date, etc. are similar to the estimated date. Is the input of the simulation. However, in the method described in Patent Document 1, the user data to be input for the simulation is only the user data of the past day. Since there is no past day in which all events completely match the estimated date, the degree of congestion on the estimated date may not be estimated with high accuracy.
An object of this invention is to estimate the congestion degree of an estimation day with high precision.

The congestion degree estimation apparatus according to the present invention is:
A congestion degree estimation device for estimating a degree of congestion of a procedural office to be processed when a passenger of a vehicle heads to the landing of the vehicle;
A predetermined time with the departure time of the vehicle as the starting time based on the number of reserved passengers and the departure time of the past flight that has already departed, and the time when the passenger of the past flight arrived at the procedure office A ratio calculation unit that calculates a ratio of the number of people arriving at the procedural office to the number of people reserved for the vehicle for each category;
Based on the ratio calculated by the ratio calculation unit and the number of reservations and the departure time for the target flight that is the flight of the vehicle whose departure time is included in a predetermined period, to the procedural office for each predetermined time segment A congestion degree estimation unit that calculates an expected arrival number and estimates the degree of congestion of the procedure office at a predetermined estimated time from the calculated expected arrival number;

The ratio calculation unit calculates the ratio using flights up to the previous day of the estimated date including the estimated time as the past flights,
The congestion degree estimation unit calculates the estimated number of arrivals using a flight including a departure time on the estimated date as the target flight.

The ratio calculation unit calculates the ratio for each situation type representing the situation of the day,
The congestion degree estimation unit calculates the expected arrival number based on the ratio calculated corresponding to the situation type corresponding to the estimation date.

The ratio calculation unit calculates the ratio for each passenger type representing the type of passenger,
For each passenger type of the reservation person of the target flight, the congestion degree estimation unit is configured to calculate the predetermined amount based on the ratio calculated corresponding to the passenger type and the number of reservations of the passenger type of the target flight. By calculating the expected arrival number of passengers of that passenger type to the procedure place for each time segment, and summing the expected arrival number calculated for each passenger type for each predetermined time category, The total expected arrival number is calculated for each predetermined time segment.

The congestion degree estimation unit is the number of passengers remaining in the procedure office for each predetermined time segment from the predicted arrival number and the number of persons who finish processing at the procedure facility in the predetermined time segment. The remaining number of persons is calculated, and the degree of congestion of the procedural office at the estimated time is estimated from the calculated number of remaining persons.

The congestion degree estimation unit calculates the expected total number of passengers who will arrive at the procedure office from the expected arrival number by the calculation time when the expected arrival number is calculated, and the calculated expected total number of persons and The estimated arrival number after the calculation time is corrected according to the difference between the actual arrival number of passengers of the target flight that actually arrived at the procedural office at the calculation time, and the estimated number of arrivals is corrected based on the corrected estimated arrival number. It is characterized in that the degree of congestion of the procedure office at the time is estimated.

The congestion degree estimation device further estimates the degree of congestion of a second procedural office to proceed after proceeding at the procedural office when the passenger heads to the landing,
The congestion level estimation unit estimates the congestion level of the procedure place at a predetermined time before the estimated time, and sets the estimated congestion level of the procedure place as the congestion level of the second procedure place at the estimated time. It is characterized by.

The congestion degree estimating unit corrects the congestion degree of the procedure place a predetermined time before the estimated time based on the movement distribution of the passengers from the procedure place to the second procedure place, and It is characterized by the congestion level of the second procedure office.

The congestion level estimation unit estimates the waiting time at the procedure office as the congestion level.

The congestion degree estimation apparatus according to the present invention is:
A congestion degree estimation device that estimates the degree of congestion of a procedural passage that passes when a visitor to a reservation target heads to the destination for the reservation target,
Based on the number of reservations and start time of the past times that have already been started, and the time at which the visitors of the past times arrived at the procedural office, the start time of the reservation target was set as the counting time A ratio calculation unit that calculates a ratio of the number of people arriving at the procedural office with respect to the number of people to be booked for each predetermined time segment;
Based on the ratio calculated by the ratio calculation unit and the number of reservations and start time for the target time that is the reservation target time whose start time is included in a predetermined period, to the procedure office for each predetermined time segment And a congestion degree estimation unit that estimates the degree of congestion of the procedure office at a predetermined estimated time from the calculated expected arrival number of persons.

The congestion degree estimation program according to the present invention is:
A congestion degree estimation program for estimating the degree of congestion of a procedure place to be processed when a passenger of a vehicle heads to the landing of the vehicle,
A predetermined time with the departure time of the vehicle as the starting time based on the number of reserved passengers and the departure time of the past flight that has already departed, and the time when the passenger of the past flight arrived at the procedure office A ratio calculation process for calculating the ratio of the number of people arriving at the procedural office to the number of people reserved for the vehicle for each category;
Based on the ratio calculated in the ratio calculation process and the number of reservations and the departure time for the target flight that is the flight of the vehicle whose departure time is included in a predetermined period, the predetermined number of time intervals to the procedural office The computer is configured to calculate a predicted arrival number and cause the computer to execute a congestion degree estimation process for estimating the congestion degree of the procedure office at a predetermined estimated time from the calculated expected arrival number.

In the congestion level estimation process, a waiting time at the procedure office is estimated as the congestion level.

  In the congestion degree estimation device according to the present invention, past data is used as statistical data, and the congestion degree of the procedure office on the estimated date is estimated based on the user data on the estimated date. As a result, the degree of congestion on the estimated date can be estimated with high accuracy.

FIG. 3 is a functional block diagram illustrating functions of the congestion degree estimation device 100 according to the first embodiment. The figure which shows the example of the information memorize | stored in the passenger data storage part. The figure which shows the example of the information memorize | stored in the passenger classification memory | storage part 104. FIG. The figure which shows the other example of the information memorize | stored in the passenger data storage part. The figure which shows the example of the information memorize | stored in the timetable memory | storage part. The figure which shows the example of ratio RD of the arrival number of persons to the check-in gate 200 with respect to the reservation number of persons calculated by the ratio calculation part. 5 is a flowchart showing a flow of ratio calculation processing according to the first embodiment. 5 is a flowchart showing a flow of expected arrival number calculation processing according to the first embodiment. Explanatory drawing of the expected arrival number calculation process which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing a flow of staying person calculation processing according to the first embodiment. FIG. 4 is a functional block diagram showing functions of a congestion degree estimation device 100 according to Embodiment 2. 9 is a flowchart showing a flow of actual arrival number calculation processing according to the second embodiment. The figure which shows an example of the hardware constitutions of the congestion degree estimation apparatus 100.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
In the following description, the processing device is a CPU 911 or the like which will be described later. The storage device is a ROM 913, a RAM 914, a magnetic disk device 920, etc., which will be described later. The input device is a keyboard 902 described later. The output device is an LCD 901, a printer 916, or the like which will be described later. The communication device is a communication board 915 or the like which will be described later. That is, the processing device, the storage device, the input device, the output device, and the communication device are all hardware.

Embodiment 1 FIG.
In the first embodiment, an example of estimating the degree of congestion of a check-in counter at an airport or a ticket confirmation gate (an example of a check-in gate 200, a security gate 300, or a procedural office) provided at a security checkpoint as a procedure office explain. In addition, the place which estimates a congestion degree is not limited to these. For example, an airport boarding gate, Shinkansen ticket gates, entrance gates in cinemas, theaters, stadiums, and other places where visitors who have made reservations pass on their way to their destinations. May be.
In the following description, one day will be described as from 0:00 to 24 hours. However, for example, if the departure time of the aircraft is from 5:00 am to 2:00 the next morning, one day may be from 5:00 am to 2:00 the next morning, or the departure time of the last flight It is good also as 24 hours from 2:00 in the morning. In other words, the day separator may be set according to the situation of the place to which it is applied.

  In the first embodiment, the ratio of the number of people arriving at the gate with respect to the reserved number of flights for each predetermined time segment is calculated based on the data of the previous flights of the aircraft (the flights that have already departed). Then, using the calculated ratio as statistical data, based on the reservation data for flights departing from the current day, calculate the expected number of arrivals to the gate for each predetermined time of the day, and calculate each time of the day from the calculated expected number of arrivals. Estimate the degree of congestion in the gate.

FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram illustrating functions of the congestion degree estimation device 100 according to the first embodiment.
The congestion degree estimation apparatus 100 according to Embodiment 1 includes an arrival information collection unit 101, a reservation information collection unit 102, a passenger data storage unit 103, a passenger type storage unit 104, a timetable storage unit 105, a situation type determination unit 106, a reservation It includes a number calculation unit 107, a ratio calculation unit 108, a ratio storage unit 109, a ratio extraction unit 110, a congestion level estimation unit 111, and a congestion level output unit 112.
The congestion degree estimation apparatus 100 is connected to the check-in gate 200, the security gate 300, and the reservation system 400 via a network. The reservation system 400 is a system for managing aircraft reservation data.

  The arrival information collection unit 101 collects the time (arrival time) when the boarding pass is processed in the check-in gate 200 or the security gate 300 as the gate passage time. In addition, when the congestion degree estimation apparatus 100 estimates the congestion degree of another place, the arrival information collection part 101 collects the time which processed the boarding pass in the place as a gate passage time.

  The reservation information collection unit 102 collects boarding flight data such as an airline ticket number, a boarding date, a boarding flight name, a departure place, an arrival place, a departure time, and an arrival time for each reservation from the reservation system 400.

The passenger data storage unit 103 is a storage device that stores the gate passage time collected by the arrival information collection unit 101 and the boarding flight data collected by the reservation information collection unit 102 as passenger data PD. The passenger data storage unit 103 also stores other information related to passengers.
FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of passenger data PD stored in the passenger data storage unit 103. As shown in FIG. 2, the passenger data storage unit 103 assigns a data ID for each boarding of passengers including past flights, and stores boarding flight data, gate passage time, and other information related to passengers. Note that the ticket issue date and the ticket issue time are the gate passage times at the check-in gate 200, and the security inspection location passage date and the security inspection location passage time are the gate passage times at the security gate 300. Ticketing date and time, as well as passage date and passage time of the security checkpoint, the airline ticket reader (not shown) installed at each gate is the passenger's ticket (including IC card such as mileage card) The time when the ticket number is read from. The name, age, gender, mileage service membership number, mileage service membership rank, and fare type are other information related to passengers. Other information regarding passengers includes passengers who accept flight ticket reservations and purchase applications, and that match the ticket number read at the gate from the ticket reservation system 400 that stores the passenger's personal information along with the flight number of the aircraft. It is memorize | stored by acquiring the information regarding. At this time, the member number and the member rank information are not specified for the passenger data for which the mileage card has not been acquired or the mileage card information has not been input.

The passenger type storage unit 104 is a storage device that stores in advance information on a passenger type PC representing the type of passenger.
FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of the passenger type PC stored in the passenger type storage unit 104. As shown in FIG. 3, the passenger type PC is assigned, for example, for each age, gender, mileage service member rank, mileage service member rank, and fare type. For example, one passenger type PC is assigned to the attributes of 40-year-old, male, gold member, and coupon ticket.
Further, as shown in FIG. 4, the passenger type PC of the passenger indicated by the record is determined from the stored contents of the passenger type storage unit 104 and stored in each record of the passenger data PD stored in the passenger data storage unit 103. Also good.

The timetable storage unit 105 is a storage device that stores in advance a departure place, a departure date, and a departure time DT for each flight number FN.
FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of information stored in the timetable storage unit 105. In addition, the timetable storage unit 105 may store a destination, the number of people, and the like.

  The situation type determination unit 106 determines, based on external information obtained from the Internet, which situation type S the situation of the day corresponds to. The situation of the day includes, for example, the weather of the day, the delay situation of the access traffic route to the airport, the day of the week and the type of holiday. Therefore, the situation type S is assigned according to, for example, the weather, the delay state of the access traffic route to the airport, the day of the week, and the holiday type for each day. For example, one situation type S is assigned to sunny weather, no traffic delay, and weekdays.

The number-of-reservations calculation unit 107 calculates the number of reservations PN from the boarding flight data collected by the reservation information collection unit 102 for each passenger type PC, flight number FN, and boarding date DX by the processing device. Therefore, the calculated reservation number PN can be expressed as reservation number PN (PC, FN, DX).
As a specific calculation method, when boarding flight data relating to one booking is acquired from the booking information collecting unit 102, a booking corresponding to the passenger type PC, the flight number FN, and the boarding date DX described in the boarding flight data is performed. The value of the number of people PN (PC, FN, DX) is incremented.

The ratio calculation unit 108 is based on information stored in the passenger data storage unit 103, the passenger type storage unit 104, and the timetable storage unit 105, etc., for each predetermined time segment XC (for example, 5 Every minute), the processing device calculates the ratio RD of the number of people arriving at each gate G (check-in gate 200 and security gate 300) with respect to the reserved number.
The ratio RD is calculated for each situation type S, passenger type PC, flight number FN, and boarding gate A. Therefore, the calculated ratio RD can be expressed as a ratio RD (S, PC, FN, G, A, XC) by adding the time section XC and the gate G to these indicators.
FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of the ratio RD of the number of arrivals at the check-in gate 200 with respect to the number of reservations calculated by the ratio calculation unit 108. In FIG. 6, the horizontal axis represents the time starting from the departure time DT (here, the time (minutes) until the departure time DT), and the vertical axis represents the number of people arriving at the check-in gate 200 with respect to the reserved number. Represents a ratio. As shown in FIG. 6, by calculating the ratio RD for each time segment XC, the distribution of the arrival number with respect to the reservation number is obtained. In the example shown in FIG. 6, the peak arrives at the check-in gate 200 about 60 minutes before the departure time DT.

  The ratio storage unit 109 is a storage device that stores information indicating the distribution of the number of arrivals at each gate with respect to the number of reservations calculated by the ratio calculation unit 108.

  The ratio extraction unit 110 extracts the ratio RD used by the congestion degree estimation unit 111 from the ratio RD stored in the ratio storage unit 109.

  Based on the ratio RD extracted by the ratio extraction unit 110 and the number of reserved passengers for each flight on that day (estimated date) calculated by the reserved number calculating unit 107, the congestion degree estimating unit 111 sets each time interval XC for each estimated date. The expected arrival number PAN arriving at the gate G is calculated by the processing device. Then, the congestion degree estimation unit 111 estimates the staying number of persons Q representing the number of passengers at each gate G at each time from the calculated expected arrival number of persons PAN as the degree of congestion by the processing device.

  The congestion level output unit 112 outputs the congestion level calculated by the congestion level estimation unit 111 to the output device.

Next, the ratio calculation process in which the ratio calculation unit 108 calculates the ratio RD of the number of arrivals and stores it in the ratio storage unit 109 will be described.
The ratio calculation process is performed for each flight that has already departed, and is performed after the flight to be operated departs and before the first flight of the next day departs. The flight to be calculated may be sequentially set by the user via the input device, the boarding flight that departs immediately before the current time may be selected sequentially, or the flight that has already departed on the day is calculated. The items having the earliest departure time DT may be sequentially selected from those that have not yet been completed.

FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing the flow of the ratio calculation process according to the first embodiment.
(S101)
The ratio calculation unit 108 acquires the situation type S determined by the situation type determination unit 106 for the departure date of the flight to be calculated.

(S102)
The ratio calculation unit 108 acquires the departure time DT of the flight to be calculated from the timetable storage unit 105.

(S103)
The ratio calculation unit 108 selects one passenger type PC to be calculated from the passenger type PCs stored in the passenger type storage unit 104. The ratio calculation unit 108 selects, for example, passenger types PC having the smallest stored memory addresses in order.

(S104)
The ratio calculation unit 108 acquires one piece of passenger data PD having the flight name FN of the flight to be calculated and the passenger type PC selected in S103 from the passenger data storage unit 103. When a plurality of passenger data PD is applicable, the ratio calculation unit 108 selects, for example, data having the youngest data ID among the data not yet selected in S104.

(S105)
The ratio calculation unit 108 selects the gate G to be calculated. Here, either the check-in gate 200 or the security gate 300 is selected. The ratio calculation unit 108 may select any order, and may be, for example, the order of gate numbers, the order of numbers assigned to names, the order of alphabets, the order of Japanese alphabets, or the like.

(S106)
The ratio calculation unit 108 acquires the passage time that has passed through the gate G selected in S105 from the passenger data PD acquired in S104. Then, the ratio calculation unit 108 calculates a value X obtained by subtracting the passage time from the departure time DT acquired in S102. That is, the value X represents how many minutes before the departure time DT the passage time is.

(S107)
The ratio calculator 108 calculates the time segment XC to which the value X calculated in S106 belongs. For example, when the ratio RD is calculated every 5 minutes starting from the departure time DT, the value obtained by dividing the value X by 5 (rounded down after the decimal point) is set as the time division XC.
Here, the time width (5 minutes in the above example) of the time section XC is XS. The time division XC is set between 0 and XE. That is, the time section XC is set between 0 minutes before the departure time DT and “XS × XE” minutes before. XE may be determined by how long before the passenger arrives before the boarding flight. For example, XS × XE = 24 hours may be set.

(S108)
The ratio calculation unit 108 uses the situation type S acquired in S101, the passenger type PC selected in S103, the flight to be calculated (flight name FN), the gate G selected in S105, the boarding gate A for the flight to be calculated, and S107. For the calculated time segment XC, a temporary ratio TRD (S, PC, FN, G, A, XC) of the number of arrivals to the number of reservations is calculated based on the formula (1).
Note that information about the boarding gate A of the flight to be calculated may be acquired, for example, by data managed by another system or may be included in the passenger data PD and held. Further, it is assumed that the temporary ratio TRD (S, PC, FN, G, A, XC) is initialized to 0 before the start of the ratio calculation process.
<Formula (1)>
tmp1 = TRD (S, PC, FN, G, A, XC) + (1 / PN (PC, FN, DX)),
TRD (S, PC, FN, G, A, XC) = tmp1
Here, tmp1 is a temporary variable. PN (PC, FN, DX) is the number of passengers for each passenger type PC, flight number FN, and boarding date DX calculated by the reservation number calculator 107. That is, in the formula (1), the corresponding temporary ratio TRD is increased by “1 / the number of reserved passengers for the corresponding passenger type PC, flight number FN, and boarding date DX”.

(S109)
The ratio calculation unit 108 determines whether or not the calculation has been completed for all the gates G (here, the check-in gate 200 and the security gate 300).
If the calculation has been completed for all the gates G (YES in S109), the ratio calculation unit 108 advances the process to S110. If the calculation has not been completed (NO in S109), the ratio calculation unit 108 returns the process to S105 and performs the calculation. An operation is performed for a non-existing gate G.

(S110)
The ratio calculation unit 108 determines whether or not the calculation has been completed for all passenger data PD having the flight name FN of the flight to be calculated and the passenger type PC selected in S103.
If the calculation is completed for all passenger data PD (YES in S110), the ratio calculation unit 108 advances the process to S111. If the calculation is not completed (NO in S110), the ratio calculation unit 108 returns the process to S104 and performs the calculation. The calculation for the passenger data PD that has not been performed is executed.

(S111)
The ratio calculation unit 108 determines whether or not the calculation has been completed for all the passenger type PCs.
If the calculation is completed for all passenger type PCs (YES in S111), the ratio calculation unit 108 advances the process to S112. If the calculation is not completed (NO in S111), the ratio calculation unit 108 returns the process to S103 and performs the calculation. The calculation for the passenger type PC that has not been performed is executed.

(S112)
The ratio calculation unit 108 uses the temporary ratio TRD finally updated in S108 for the situation type S acquired in S101, each passenger type PC, each gate G, the boarding gate A of the flight to be calculated, and each time section XC. Thus, the ratio RD stored in the ratio storage unit 109 is updated based on the formula (2).
<Formula (2)>
tmp2 = (1-α) RD (S, PC, FN, G, A, XC) + αTRD (S, PC, FN, G, A, XC),
RD (S, PC, FN, G, A, XC) = tmp2
Here, tmp2 is a temporary variable. α is a learning coefficient, and 0 <α <1. The closer the learning coefficient α is to 0, the stronger the influence of the ratio RD accumulated in the past, and the closer the learning coefficient α is to 1, the stronger the influence of the newly calculated temporary ratio RD.

As described above, by executing the ratio calculation process, the ratio storage unit 109 arrives at the reserved number of persons for each of the situation type S, passenger type PC, flight number FN, gate G, boarding gate A, and time division XC. The ratio RD (S, PC, FN, G, A, XC) of the number of people is accumulated.
Here, the ratio RD is calculated for each situation type S because, for example, the snowy day tends to arrive at the gate G earlier than the clear day, and how much the departure time depends on the situation of the day. This is because whether the arrival at the gate G before changes.
The ratio RD is calculated for each passenger type PC, for example, because the membership rank of the mileage service is high and passengers who frequently use the airport tend to arrive at the gate G later. This is because how far before the departure time changes depending on the type of passenger.
Moreover, the reason why the ratio RD is calculated for each flight number FN is because, for example, how far before the departure time changes depending on the destination or the like.
In addition, the ratio RD is calculated for each boarding gate A because the gate G tends to arrive early when the boarding gate A is far away, such as the gate G before the departure time by the boarding gate A. This is because the arrival will change.

Next, a congestion level estimation process in which the congestion level estimation unit 111 estimates the congestion level of each gate G using the ratio RD accumulated in the ratio storage unit 109 as statistical data will be described.
The congestion degree estimation process is divided into an expected arrival number calculation process and a staying number calculation process. The expected arrival number calculation process is a process of calculating the expected number of arrivals to the gate G for each time segment XC. The staying number calculation process is a process of calculating the staying number Q of the gate G as the congestion degree from the predicted arrival number calculated in the expected arrival number calculation process.
In the congestion level estimation process, the transition of the congestion level on the estimated date may be estimated, or the congestion level at an arbitrary time (estimated time) on the estimated date may be estimated. In addition, the congestion degree estimation process is executed, for example, before the start of airport operation when estimating the transition of the congestion degree on the estimation day, and when estimating the congestion degree of the estimated time, It is executed before a predetermined time. In the following description, the congestion degree for all the gates G is estimated. However, the congestion degree may be estimated only for the gate G designated by the user via the input device.
Here, a process for estimating the degree of congestion on the estimated date 1 (from 0:00 to 23:59) will be described as an example.

FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing a flow of predicted arrival number calculation processing according to the first embodiment.
(S201)
The congestion level estimation unit 111 acquires the status type S determined by the status type determination unit 106 for the day (estimation date of the congestion level).

(S202)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 acquires the flight names FN of all flights departing from the estimated date and the departure time DT of the flights from the timetable storage unit 105.

(S203)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 selects one flight name FN of a flight to be calculated from the flight names FN acquired in S202, and acquires the departure time DT of the flight. The congestion degree estimation unit 111 selects, for example, in order from flights with early departure times.

(S204)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 selects one passenger type PC to be calculated from the passenger type PCs stored in the passenger type storage unit 104. The congestion degree estimation unit 111 selects, for example, in order from a passenger type PC having a smaller memory address.

(S205)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 selects a gate G to be calculated. Here, either the check-in gate 200 or the security gate 300 is selected. The degree-of-congestion estimation unit 111 may select any order, and may be, for example, the order of gate numbers, the order of numbers assigned to names, the order of alphabets, or the order of Japanese alphabets.

(S206)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 sets the time section XC to 0.

(S207)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 obtains the status type S acquired in S201, the passenger type PC selected in S204, the flight to be calculated (flight name FN) selected in S203, the gate G selected in S205, and the boarding of the flight to be calculated The ratio extraction unit 110 acquires the ratio RD (S, PC, FN, G, A, XC) of the arrival number with respect to the reservation number for the mouth A and the current time section XC.

(S208)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 is the estimated number of people who arrive at the gate G selected in S205 from “DT (FN) −XC × XS” to “DT (FN) − ((XC−1) × XS)”. The expected arrival number of persons PAN (G, DT (FN) −XC × XS) is calculated based on the formula (3).
DT (FN) is the departure time of the flight with flight number FN. XC is a time section, and XS is a time width of the time section XC. Therefore, from “DT (FN) −XC × XS” to “DT (FN) − ((XC−1) × XS)”, the time from the time before the departure time of the flight to be calculated is the time To the time after XS. For example, if the time division XC is 3 and the time width XS is 5 minutes, it indicates 15 minutes to 10 minutes before the departure time.
Further, it is assumed that the expected arrival number PAN (G, DT (FN) −XC × XS) is initialized to 0 before the congestion degree estimation process is started.
<Formula (3)>
tmp3 = PAN (G, DT (FN) −XC × XS) + RD (S, PC, FN, G, A, XC) × PN (PC, FN, DX),
PAN (G, DT (FN) -XC x XS) = tmp3
Here, tmp3 is a temporary variable. RD (S, PC, FN, G, A, XC) is the ratio RD of the number of arrivals acquired in S207. PN (PC, FN, DX) is the number of passengers for each passenger type PC, flight number FN, and boarding date DX calculated by the reservation number calculator 107.

(S209)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 increases the time segment XC by one.

(S210)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 determines whether or not the time section XC is XE.
When the time segment XC is XE (YES in S210), the congestion degree estimation unit 111 advances the process to S211. When the time segment XC is not XE (NO in S210), the congestion degree estimation unit 111 returns the process to S207 for the next time. Execute the operation.

(S211)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 determines whether or not the calculation has been completed for all the gates G.
When the calculation is completed for all the gates G (YES in S211), the congestion degree estimation unit 111 advances the process to S212, and when the calculation is not completed (NO in S211), the process returns to S205 and performs the calculation. The calculation for the gate G that has not been performed is executed.

(S212)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 determines whether or not the calculation has been completed for all passenger types PC.
When the calculation is completed for all passenger types PC (YES in S212), the congestion degree estimation unit 111 advances the process to S213. If the calculation is not completed (NO in S212), the congestion degree estimation unit 111 returns the process to S204. The calculation for the passenger type PC that has not been performed is executed.

(S213)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 determines whether the calculation has been completed for flights of all flight names FN acquired in S202.
When the calculation is completed for all flights (YES in S213), the congestion degree estimation unit 111 ends the expected arrival number calculation process, and when the calculation is not completed (NO in S213), the process returns to S203. Perform calculations for flights that have not been calculated.

  As described above, by executing the predicted arrival number calculation process, the predicted arrival number PAN (G, DT (FN) −XC × XS) for each gate G is calculated for each time interval XC on the estimated date.

FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram of the expected arrival number calculation process according to the first embodiment.
As shown in FIG. 9, in the expected arrival number calculation process, each flight is added to the corresponding ratio RD (S, PC, FN, G, A, XC) calculated in the ratio calculation process (see FIG. 9A). The estimated number of arrivals for each flight is calculated for each time division XC (see FIG. 9B). Then, the total expected arrival number is calculated by adding the expected arrival number calculated for each flight for each time section XC (FIG. 9C).

FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing a flow of staying person calculation processing according to the first embodiment.
(S301)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 selects a gate G to be calculated. Here, either the check-in gate 200 or the security gate 300 is selected. The ratio calculation unit 108 may select any order, and may be, for example, the order of gate numbers, the order of numbers assigned to names, the order of alphabets, the order of Japanese alphabets, or the like.

(S302)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 initializes the calculation time T to an initial value. The initial value is the start time of the calculation target. Here, the initial value is 0:00.

(S303)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 initializes the staying number Q (G, 0:00) of the gate G to zero.

(S304)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 increases the calculation time T by the sampling time st. The sampling time st is set to an arbitrary value in advance. Here, the sampling time st is assumed to be the time width XS of the time section XC.

(S305)
The congestion level estimation unit 111 calculates the staying number Q (G, T) of the gate G at the calculation time T based on the formula (4).
<Formula (4)>
Q (G, T) = Q (G, T-st) + PAN (G, T) -GP (G)
Here, Q (G, T-st) is the number of people staying at the time before the calculation time T by the sampling time st. PAN (G, T) is the expected number of arrivals expected to arrive at the gate G from the time before the calculation time T by the sampling time st to the calculation time T. PAN (G, T) is calculated in the expected arrival number calculation process. GP (G) is the number of persons who can pass through the gate G during the sampling time st.
The GP (G) can be obtained from, for example, the number of boarding pass readers installed in the area of the gate G, the number of ticket issuing machines, the number of attendants, and the time required for processing one passenger. . GP (G) can also be obtained from the time taken for one passenger to pass through the gate. For example, in a gate g that requires both confirmation by the boarding pass reader and confirmation by the attendant, the time for the boarding pass reader to process one passenger is gt1, and the time for the attendant to process one passenger is gt2. If the number of boarding pass readers is gn1 and the number of attendants is gn2, GP (g) is obtained by equation (5).
<Formula (5)>
GP (g) = st / max (gt1 / gn1, gt2 / gn2)
Here, max is a function that gives the maximum value among the arguments.

(S306)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 determines whether or not the calculation time T is a time after the last time (23:59 in this case) to be calculated.
When the calculation time T is after the final time of the calculation target (YES in S306), the congestion degree estimation unit 111 advances the process to S307, and when the calculation time T is before the final time of the calculation target (NO in S306). Then, the process is returned to S304, and the calculation time T is advanced by the sampling time st to execute the calculation.

(S307)
The congestion degree estimation unit 111 determines whether or not the calculation has been completed for all the gates G.
When the calculation is completed for all the gates G (YES in S307), the congestion level estimation unit 111 advances the process to S308, and when the calculation is not completed (NO in S307), the congestion degree estimation unit 111 returns the process to S301 and performs the calculation. The calculation for the gate G that has not been performed is executed.

(S308)
The congestion degree output unit 112 outputs the staying number Q at each time of each gate G calculated in S305 as the congestion degree at that time of the gate.

As described above, by executing the staying number calculation process, the staying number Q (G, T) of each gate G at the time of each sampling time st on the estimated date is calculated as the congestion degree.
Further, another congestion degree indicating the degree of congestion can be calculated using the staying number of persons Q (G, T) calculated as the congestion degree.
By setting the reference sampling time st to any one and comparing the staying number Q (G, T) of each gate G for each sampling time st with the staying number Q (G, T) of the reference sampling time st The degree of congestion at each sampling time st can be calculated in the estimated date. For example, the congestion degree estimation unit 111 sets the reference sampling time st as a time segment indicating an intermediate value of the staying number Q (G, T), and sets the staying number Q (G, T) of each sampling time st as the reference time segment. By performing a comparison with the staying number of people Q (G, T), if the staying number of people Q (G, T) is larger than the intermediate value of the staying number of people Q (G, T), it is crowded. When Q (G, T) is small, it can be determined that it is free. Accordingly, the congestion degree estimation unit 111 is free from 6 am to 10 am, relatively free from 10 am to 15:00, crowded from 15:00 to 17:00, and relatively from 17:00 to 21:00. Qualitative information such as being crowded can also be presented.
Also, the area of the waiting space in front of each gate is given, and the degree of congestion is defined as the degree of stay density = waiting space area / staying number of people Q (G, T) with respect to the reference staying density. May be represented.
For example, the residence density assumed at the time of airport building design may be used as the reference residence density.
Further, instead of the degree of congestion, average waiting time = Q (G, T) / GP (G) may be displayed.

Congestion degree estimation apparatus 100 according to Embodiment 1 estimates the degree of congestion of a procedure office from the number of people reserved on the estimated date, using past data as statistical data. In addition, the congestion degree estimating apparatus 100 uses the past data corresponding to the passenger type, the weather of the day, the delay state of the access traffic route to the airport, the day of the week and the type of holiday as statistical data, and calculates the congestion degree of the procedure place. presume. Therefore, it is possible to estimate the congestion degree of the procedure office with high accuracy.
As a result, it is possible to notify the user in advance of the congestion degree of the procedural office estimated with high accuracy. In addition, the number of terminals installed at each gate, the number of staff, guidance display boards, etc. from the staying number Q (G, T) at each sampling time st and the processing time per passenger at the procedural office The number of display devices installed can be calculated. Thereby, it is possible to appropriately plan and operate the number of staff members of the procedure office and the number of devices to be operated.

  In the above description, the ratio calculation process is executed after the flight to be operated departs and before the first flight of the next day departs. However, the ratio calculation process may be executed before the execution of the congestion degree estimation process for a flight that has already departed among the flights on the estimated day of the day for estimating the congestion degree. That is, data regarding flights that have already departed on the estimated date may be used as statistical data.

  In the above description, in S304, the sampling time st is the time width XS. However, the sampling time st may be set to a time width XS divisor, for example. For example, it is assumed that st = XS / d (d is an integer of 1 or more). In this case, in S305, PAN (G, T) is an integer representing the estimated number of arrivals expected to arrive at the gate G between the time before the calculation time T by the time width X and the calculation time T. The number of people divided by d may be used.

  In the above description, the process for estimating the degree of congestion on the estimated date 1 is described as an example. When estimating the degree of congestion at a certain time (estimated time) on the estimated date, the final time to be calculated in S306 may be set as the estimated time.

In the above explanation, the expected arrival number of each gate is calculated. However, the expected arrival number of other gates may be estimated from the expected arrival number of one gate.
For example, when passing through the security gate 300 after passing through the check-in gate 200, only the check-in gate 200 is estimated by the method described above. Then, the expected arrival number for the security gate 300 may be obtained by shifting the expected arrival number for the check-in gate 200 by a predetermined time. For example, if the user arrives at the security gate 300 approximately 20 minutes after arriving at the check-in gate 200, the expected arrival number of the security gate 300 is assumed to be the expected arrival number of the check-in gate 200 at the time 20 minutes ago. Good. Also, for example, based on the distribution data of time taken from arrival at the check-in gate 200 to arrival at the security gate 300 (movement distribution data), the estimated number of arrivals for the check-in gate 200 to the prediction for the security gate 300 You may calculate the number of arrivals.

Embodiment 2. FIG.
In the second embodiment, in the calculation of the degree of congestion described in the first embodiment, the degree of congestion is sequentially determined using information on passengers who have passed through the gates up to the time when the calculation of the degree of congestion is performed (current time PT). A correction method will be described.
Regarding the congestion degree estimation apparatus 100 according to the second embodiment, only portions different from the congestion degree estimation apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment will be described.

FIG. 11 is a functional block diagram illustrating functions of the congestion degree estimation device 100 according to the second embodiment.
The congestion degree estimation apparatus 100 according to the second embodiment includes an arrival passenger number calculation unit 113 in addition to the functions provided in the congestion degree estimation apparatus 100 according to the first embodiment shown in FIG.

The arrival passenger number calculation unit 113 calculates the actual arrival number PANC, which is the number of passengers actually arriving at the check-in gate 200 and the security gate 300, at the time T by the processing device.
The actual arrival number PANC is calculated for each flight number FN, gate G, and time T. Therefore, the calculated actual arrival number PANC can be expressed as the actual arrival number PANC (FN, G, T).

  The congestion degree estimation unit 111 calculates the expected arrival number PAN as in the first embodiment. Then, the congestion degree estimation unit 111 estimates the congestion degree Q of each gate G at each time by the processing device from the calculated expected arrival number PAN and the actual arrival number PANC calculated by the arrived passenger number calculation unit 113. .

FIG. 12 is a flowchart showing a flow of actual arrival number calculation processing according to the second embodiment. The actual arrival number calculation process is a process for calculating the actual arrival number at the gate G at the current time PT.
(S401)
The arrival passenger number calculation unit 113 acquires the flight name FN of the flight departing from the estimated date and the departure time DT of the flight from the timetable storage unit 105.

(S402)
The arrival passenger number calculation unit 113 selects the flight name FN of the flight to be calculated from the flight names FN acquired in S401, and acquires the departure time DT of the flight. The arrived passenger number calculation unit 113 selects, for example, flights starting from the earliest departure time.

(S403)
The arrival passenger number calculation unit 113 selects one passenger type PC to be calculated from the passenger type PCs stored in the passenger type storage unit 104. For example, the number-of-arrived passengers calculation unit 113 selects in order from the passenger type PC having the smallest stored memory address.

(S404)
The arrived passenger number calculation unit 113 selects the gate G to be calculated. Here, either the check-in gate 200 or the security gate 300 is selected. The arrival passenger number calculation unit 113 may select any order, and may be, for example, the order of gate numbers, the order of numbers assigned to names, the order of alphabets, or the order of Japanese alphabets.

(S405)
Arrived passenger number calculation section 113 initializes calculation time T to an initial value. The initial value is the start time of the calculation target. Here, the initial value is 0:00.

(S406)
The arrival passenger number calculation unit 113 increases the calculation time T by the sampling time st. The sampling time st is set to an arbitrary value in advance. The sampling time st is, for example, a time width XS.

(S407)
The arrival passenger number calculation unit 113 calculates the number of passengers actually arriving at the gate G at the calculation time T as shown in Expression (5).
<Formula (5)>
tmp4 = PANC (FN, G, T) + PDC (PC, FN, DX, G, A, T),
PANC (FN, G, T) = tmp4
Here, tmp4 is a temporary variable. PDC (PC, FN, DX, G, A, XC) is the passenger management data PD, passenger type is PC, boarding flight is FN, boarding date is DX, passing gate is G, boarding gate is A, gate G is the number of passes from time T-st to time T.
PDC (PC, FN, DX, G, A, XC) has a passenger type of PC, a boarding flight of FN, a boarding date of DX, a passing gate of G, a boarding gate of A, and gate G at time T-st. Can be calculated by counting the number of records in the passenger data storage unit 103 under the condition from to T.

(S408)
The arrival passenger number calculation unit 113 determines whether or not the calculation time T is a time after the current time PT.
If the calculated time T is after the current time PT (YES in S408), the number of arrived passengers calculation unit 113 advances the process to S409, and if the calculated time T is before the current time PT (NO in S408), the process To S406, the calculation time T is advanced by the sampling time st to execute the calculation.

(S409)
The arrival passenger number calculation unit 113 determines whether or not the calculation has been completed for all the gates G.
If the calculation has been completed for all the gates G (YES in S409), the arrival passenger number calculation unit 113 advances the process to S410. If the calculation has not been completed (NO in S409), the process returns to S404. The calculation for the gate G that has not been calculated is executed.

(S410)
The arrival passenger number calculation unit 113 determines whether or not the calculation has been completed for all the passenger type PCs.
If the calculation has been completed for all passenger type PCs (YES in S410), the arrival passenger number calculation unit 113 advances the process to S411. If the calculation has not been completed (NO in S410), the process returns to S403. The calculation for the passenger type PC that has not been calculated is executed.

(S411)
The arrival passenger number calculation unit 113 determines whether or not the calculation has been completed for flights of all flight names FN acquired in S401.
If the calculation has been completed for all flights (YES in S411), the arrival passenger number calculation unit 113 ends the actual arrival number calculation process, and if the calculation has not been completed (NO in S411), the process proceeds to S402. Return and perform computations for flights that have not been computed.

  As described above, by executing the actual arrival number calculation process, the number of persons PANC (FN, G, T) actually arriving at each gate G by the time point (current time PT) when the process is executed is calculated.

  Then, in S305 of FIG. 10, the congestion degree estimation unit 111 uses the difference between the expected number of arrivals by the current time PT and the number of arrivals by the current time PT, thereby calculating the gate at the calculation time T. Calculate the staying number of G (G, T).

First, the congestion degree estimation unit 111 calculates the difference between the number of people who are expected to arrive at the gate G by the current time T and the number of people who actually arrive at the gate G based on the equation (6). A correction value AV that is prorated according to the arrival distribution from the current time to the departure time of the flight number FN is obtained.
<Formula (6)>
AV = Σ _FN ((RD (S, PC, FN, G, A, ((DT (FN) −T)) / XS)) / (Σ _{xc = (((DT (FN) −PT) / XS) +1)} ^{DT (FN)} (RD (S, PC, FN, G, A, xc))) × (Σ _{XC = ((DT (FN) −PT) / XS))} ^XE (RD (S, PC, FN) , G, A, XC) × PN (PC, FN, DX) -PANC (FN, G, PT)))
Here, “(RD (S, PC, FN, G, A, ((DT (FN) −T)) / XS))” is the ratio RD in the time section XC including the time T that is the calculation target in S305. It is. “(Σ _{xc = (((DT (FN) −PT) / XS) +1)} ^{DT (FN)} (RD (S, PC, FN, G, A, xc))” ”is a time including the current time PT. It is the sum of the ratio RD from the section XC to the departure time. “(Σ _{XC = ((DT (FN) −PT) / XS))} ^XE (RD (S, PC, FN, G, A, XC) × PN (PC, FN, DX)” is until the current time PT. It is the number of people who are expected to arrive at the gate G. “PANC (FN, G, T)” is the number of people who actually arrived at the gate G by the current time PT calculated by the number of arrived passengers calculation unit 113. .

Then, the congestion degree estimation unit 111 uses the calculated correction value AV to calculate the number of people staying at the gate G (G, T) at the calculation target time T based on Expression (7).
<Formula (7)>
Q (G, T) = Q (G, T-st) + PAN (G, T) + AV + GP (G)

  As described above, the congestion degree estimation apparatus 100 according to the second embodiment estimates the degree of congestion by correcting the number of persons who arrive at the procedure place after that using the number of people who have actually arrived at the procedure place. Therefore, it is possible to estimate the congestion degree of the procedure office with higher accuracy.

In the above embodiment, an example has been described in which the congestion level of a check-in counter at an airport or a ticket confirmation gate provided at a security checkpoint is estimated. However, as described above, the place where the degree of congestion is estimated is not limited to these. For example, an airport boarding gate, Shinkansen ticket gates, entrance gates in cinemas, theaters, stadiums, and other places where visitors who have made reservations pass on their way to their destinations. May be.
For example, when estimating the congestion level of an entrance gate in a movie theater, the passenger in the above description may be read as a visitor, the flight of an aircraft as a screening, and the boarding gate as a venue (destination). Furthermore, the departure time may be read as the start time of the target screening.

Next, the hardware configuration of the congestion degree estimation apparatus 100 in the embodiment will be described.
FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of the congestion degree estimation device 100.
As illustrated in FIG. 13, the congestion degree estimation apparatus 100 includes a CPU 911 (also referred to as a central processing unit, a central processing unit, a processing unit, an arithmetic unit, a microprocessor, a microcomputer, and a processor) that executes a program. . The CPU 911 is connected to the ROM 913, the RAM 914, the LCD 901 (Liquid Crystal Display), the keyboard 902 (K / B), the communication board 915, the printer 916, and the magnetic disk device 920 via the bus 912, and controls these hardware devices. . Instead of the magnetic disk device 920 (fixed disk device), a storage device such as an optical disk device or a memory card read / write device may be used. The magnetic disk device 920 is connected via a predetermined fixed disk interface.

  An operating system 921 (OS), a window system 922, a program group 923, and a file group 924 are stored in the magnetic disk device 920 or the ROM 913. The programs in the program group 923 are executed by the CPU 911, the operating system 921, and the window system 922.

The program group 923 includes “arrival information collection unit 101”, “reservation information collection unit 102”, “situation type determination unit 106”, “reservation number calculation unit 107”, “ratio calculation unit 108”, “ Software, programs, and other programs that perform the functions described as “ratio extraction unit 110”, “congestion degree estimation unit 111”, “congestion degree output unit 112”, “arrived passenger number calculation unit 113”, and the like are stored. Yes. The program is read and executed by the CPU 911.
The file group 924 includes information, data, and signals stored in the “passenger data storage unit 103”, “passenger type storage unit 104”, “timetable storage unit 105”, “ratio storage unit 109”, etc. in the above description. Values, variable values, and parameters are stored as items of “file” and “database”. The “file” and “database” are stored in a recording medium such as a disk or a memory. Information, data, signal values, variable values, and parameters stored in a storage medium such as a disk or memory are read out to the main memory or cache memory by the CPU 911 via a read / write circuit, and extracted, searched, referenced, compared, and calculated. Used for the operation of the CPU 911 such as calculation / processing / output / printing / display. Information, data, signal values, variable values, and parameters are temporarily stored in the main memory, cache memory, and buffer memory during the operation of the CPU 911 for extraction, search, reference, comparison, calculation, calculation, processing, output, printing, and display. Is remembered.

In the above description, the arrows in the flowchart mainly indicate input / output of data and signals, and the data and signal values are recorded in a memory of the RAM 914, other recording media such as an optical disk, and an IC chip. Data and signals are transmitted online by a bus 912, signal lines, cables, other transmission media, and radio waves.
In addition, what is described as “to part” in the above description may be “to circuit”, “to device”, “to device”, “to means”, and “to function”. It may be “step”, “˜procedure”, “˜processing”. In addition, what is described as “˜device” may be “˜circuit”, “˜device”, “˜means”, “˜function”, and “˜step”, “˜procedure”, “ ~ Process ". Furthermore, what is described as “to process” may be “to step”. That is, what is described as “˜unit” may be realized by firmware stored in the ROM 913. Alternatively, it may be implemented only by software, or only by hardware such as elements, devices, substrates, and wirings, by a combination of software and hardware, or by a combination of firmware. Firmware and software are stored in a recording medium such as ROM 913 as a program. The program is read by the CPU 911 and executed by the CPU 911. That is, the program causes a computer or the like to function as the “˜unit” described above. Alternatively, the computer or the like is caused to execute the procedures and methods of “to part” described above.

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 100 Congestion degree estimation apparatus, 101 Arrival information collection part, 102 Reservation information collection part, 103 Passenger data storage part, 104 Passenger classification storage part, 105 Timetable storage part, 106 Situation type determination part, 107 Reserved number calculation part, 108 Ratio Calculation unit, 109 ratio storage unit, 110 ratio extraction unit, 111 congestion degree estimation unit, 112 congestion degree output unit, 113 arrived passenger number calculation unit, 200 check-in gate, 300 security gate, 400 reservation system.

Claims (12)

A congestion degree estimation device for estimating a degree of congestion of a procedural office to be processed when a passenger of a vehicle heads to the landing of the vehicle;
A predetermined time with the departure time of the vehicle as the starting time based on the number of reserved passengers and the departure time of the past flight that has already departed, and the time when the passenger of the past flight arrived at the procedure office A ratio calculation unit that calculates a ratio of the number of people arriving at the procedural office to the number of people reserved for the vehicle for each category;
Based on the ratio calculated by the ratio calculation unit and the number of reservations and the departure time for the target flight that is the flight of the vehicle whose departure time is included in a predetermined period, to the procedural office for each predetermined time segment A congestion degree estimation apparatus, comprising: a congestion degree estimation unit that calculates an expected arrival number of persons and estimates the degree of congestion of the procedure office at a predetermined estimated time from the calculated expected arrival number of persons. The ratio calculation unit calculates the ratio using flights up to the previous day of the estimated date including the estimated time as the past flights,
The congestion level estimation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the congestion level estimation unit calculates the expected number of arrivals using a flight including a departure time on the estimated date as the target flight. The ratio calculation unit calculates the ratio for each situation type representing the situation of the day,
The congestion degree estimation according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the congestion degree estimation unit calculates the expected arrival number of persons based on the ratio calculated corresponding to the situation type corresponding to the estimation date. apparatus. The ratio calculation unit calculates the ratio for each passenger type representing the type of passenger,
For each passenger type of the reservation person of the target flight, the congestion degree estimation unit is configured to calculate the predetermined amount based on the ratio calculated corresponding to the passenger type and the number of reservations of the passenger type of the target flight. By calculating the expected arrival number of passengers of that passenger type to the procedure place for each time segment, and summing the expected arrival number calculated for each passenger type for each predetermined time category, 4. The congestion degree estimation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein a total expected arrival number is calculated for each of the predetermined time segments. 5. The congestion degree estimation unit is the number of passengers remaining in the procedure office for each predetermined time segment from the predicted arrival number and the number of persons who finish processing at the procedure facility in the predetermined time segment. The congestion degree estimation apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the remaining number of persons is calculated, and the degree of congestion of the procedural office at the estimated time is estimated from the calculated number of remaining persons. The congestion degree estimation unit calculates the expected total number of passengers who will arrive at the procedure office from the expected arrival number by the calculation time when the expected arrival number is calculated, and the calculated expected total number of persons and The estimated arrival number after the calculation time is corrected according to the difference between the actual arrival number of passengers of the target flight that actually arrived at the procedural office at the calculation time, and the estimated number of arrivals is corrected based on the corrected estimated arrival number. The congestion degree estimation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the congestion degree of the procedure place at a time is estimated. The congestion degree estimation device further estimates the degree of congestion of a second procedural office to proceed after proceeding at the procedural office when the passenger heads to the landing,
The congestion level estimation unit estimates the congestion level of the procedure place at a predetermined time before the estimated time, and sets the estimated congestion level of the procedure place as the congestion level of the second procedure place at the estimated time. The congestion degree estimation apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein The congestion degree estimating unit corrects the congestion degree of the procedure place a predetermined time before the estimated time based on the movement distribution of the passengers from the procedure place to the second procedure place, and The congestion degree estimation apparatus according to claim 7, wherein the congestion degree is a second procedure place. The congestion degree estimation apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 8, wherein the congestion degree estimation unit estimates a waiting time at the procedure place as the congestion degree. A congestion degree estimation device that estimates the degree of congestion of a procedural passage that passes when a visitor to a reservation target heads to the destination for the reservation target,
Based on the number of reservations and start time of the past times that have already been started, and the time at which the visitors of the past times arrived at the procedural office, the start time of the reservation target was set as the counting time A ratio calculation unit that calculates a ratio of the number of people arriving at the procedural office with respect to the number of people to be booked for each predetermined time segment;
Based on the ratio calculated by the ratio calculation unit and the number of reservations and start time for the target time that is the reservation target time whose start time is included in a predetermined period, to the procedure office for each predetermined time segment A congestion degree estimation device, comprising: a congestion degree estimation unit that calculates the expected arrival number of persons and estimates the degree of congestion of the procedure office at a predetermined estimated time from the calculated expected arrival number of persons. A congestion degree estimation program for estimating the degree of congestion of a procedure place to be processed when a passenger of a vehicle heads to the landing of the vehicle,
A predetermined time with the departure time of the vehicle as the starting time based on the number of reserved passengers and the departure time of the past flight that has already departed, and the time when the passenger of the past flight arrived at the procedure office A ratio calculation process for calculating the ratio of the number of people arriving at the procedural office to the number of people reserved for the vehicle for each category;
Based on the ratio calculated in the ratio calculation process and the number of reservations and the departure time for the target flight that is the flight of the vehicle whose departure time is included in a predetermined period, the predetermined number of time intervals to the procedural office A congestion degree estimation program for calculating an expected arrival number and causing a computer to execute a congestion degree estimation process for estimating the congestion degree of the procedure office at a predetermined estimated time from the calculated expected arrival number. 12. The congestion degree estimation program according to claim 11, wherein in the congestion degree estimation process, a waiting time at the procedure office is estimated as the congestion degree.

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