JP2012013521A - Earthquake damage prediction device and program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an earthquake damage prediction device and a program that predict how much buildings are damaged by seismic ground motion with a high degree of accuracy in short time.SOLUTION: The earthquake damage prediction device generates a plurality of seismic waves in an area in which object buildings of damage prediction are built by changing phases using a random number for each of a plurality of magnitudes (step 200); makes dynamic elastoplasticity analysis by a mass system model using the plurality of seismic waves to derive physical quantities indicative of predetermined building response indexes (steps 202-206); stratifies the derived physical quantities, and selects seismic waves corresponding to some of physical quantities included in the layer for each stratified layer (steps 208, 210); makes dynamic elastoplasticity analysis by a three-dimensional frame model using the selected seismic waves to derive damage states for each member used for the building (step 212); and predicts a damage extent of the building by the seismic ground motion based upon the damage states (steps 214-224).

Description

  The present invention relates to an earthquake damage prediction apparatus and program, and more particularly to an earthquake damage prediction apparatus and program for predicting the damage status of a building due to earthquake motion.

  Conventionally, as a technique for predicting the damage situation of a building due to earthquake motion, Patent Document 1 by the present applicant describes a seismic wave in a region where a building subject to damage prediction is built using a random number for each of a plurality of magnitudes. A plurality of seismic wave generating means for generating a plurality of seismic waves by changing the phase; and a predicting means for predicting the degree of damage to the building due to earthquake motion by response analysis using a building model using the plurality of seismic waves generated by the seismic wave generating means. An earthquake damage prediction apparatus has been disclosed.

  In addition, Patent Document 2 by the present applicant uses a seismic wave generating unit that generates a plurality of seismic waves in a region where a building to be damaged is predicted, and a plurality of seismic waves generated by the seismic wave generating unit. Interlaminar displacement deriving means for conducting dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a mass system model to derive at least one of the maximum laminar shear force and maximum interlaminar deformation angle, and the maximum laminar shear force and maximum interlaminar deformation derived by the interlaminar displacement deriving means Perform static elasto-plastic analysis with a three-dimensional frame model using at least one of the corners, derive the damage state for each member used in the building, and predict the damage level to the building due to earthquake motion based on the damage state And an earthquake damage prediction apparatus including a prediction means.

  In the technology disclosed in Patent Document 1 and Patent Document 2, the PML (Probable Maximum Loss) value, which is an important index for building value evaluation and risk evaluation, is used for earthquake damage. Derived as a prediction result. Here, the PML value is a value that represents the 90% non-exceeding value of the amount of damage that would be caused by an earthquake with an excess probability of 50% for 50 years (reproduction period 475 years) as a ratio to the replacement cost of the building. It is widely used as an indicator of the earthquake resistance performance of buildings.

JP 2007-93619 A Japanese Patent No. 4005004

  However, since the techniques described in Patent Document 1 and Patent Document 2 predict the damage level of a building based on the damage state of each member finally obtained by static elastic-plastic analysis using a three-dimensional frame model. However, there has been a problem that the degree of damage to buildings due to long-period ground motion, which has been a problem in recent years, cannot always be predicted with high accuracy.

  That is, in long-period ground motion, deformation and energy repeatedly act on the building many times, so it is necessary to consider the fatigue of the structural material, but this cannot be handled by static elastic-plastic analysis.

  In order to solve this problem, dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a three-dimensional frame model may be performed, but this causes a new problem that enormous calculation time is required.

  The present invention has been made to solve the above-described problems, and an object thereof is to provide an earthquake damage prediction apparatus and program capable of predicting the damage level of a building due to earthquake motion in a short time with high accuracy. .

  In order to achieve the above object, the earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to claim 1 changes the phase of the seismic wave in the area where the building subject to damage prediction is built using a random number for each of a plurality of magnitudes. A plurality of seismic wave generation means for generating a physical quantity indicating a predetermined building response index by performing dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a mass system model using the plurality of seismic waves generated by the seismic wave generation means And the physical quantity derived by the physical quantity deriving means are stratified according to a predetermined rule, and the seismic wave corresponding to a part of the physical quantity included in the layer for each stratified layer A seismic wave selecting means for selecting a predetermined standard, and a dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a three-dimensional frame model using the seismic wave selected by the seismic wave selecting means. Damage state deriving means for deriving a damage state for each member used in the building; and prediction means for predicting the degree of damage to the building due to earthquake motion based on the damage state derived by the damage state deriving means. I have.

  Here, the principle of the present invention will be described.

  In the technologies disclosed in Patent Document 1 and Patent Document 2 by the present applicant, Monte Carlo simulation is applied in order to predict the degree of damage with high accuracy. Various methods have been proposed, and among them, there are a stratification method and a Latin hypercube method.

  The above stratification method is a technique for improving efficiency by stratifying the parameters used in Monte Carlo simulation and sampling them uniformly. The Latin hypercube method is used when the stratification method is extended to multiple parameters. This is a technique for preventing the number of necessary samples from becoming excessive due to the combination of parameters.

  Here, in the techniques disclosed in Patent Document 1 and Patent Document 2, it is possible to improve the efficiency by using the Latin hypercube method, but there is a problem that the efficiency does not increase with some parameters. .

  That is, in the stratification method and the Latin hypercube method, efficiency is achieved by taking the parameters uniformly, but one of the parameters used in the techniques disclosed in Patent Document 1 and Patent Document 2 above. As for the phase of the seismic wave, even if the random initial value as a parameter is made uniform, the result is not uniform. Therefore, the effect of the stratification method cannot be obtained with respect to the phase of the seismic wave, and the efficiency is limited.

  This is because there is no correlation between the initial random number for generating the phase of the seismic wave and the prediction result.

  Here, the inventor of the present invention examined S vibration control structure buildings described in “Structural Design / Cross Section Case Examples” (Japan Building Disaster Prevention Association, 2007). An outline of the target building is shown in Table 1, and a three-dimensional frame model is shown in FIG.

  A pushover analysis was performed with this analysis model, and a mass system analysis model was created from the results. The response results of the two dynamic analysis models using El Centro waves are shown in FIG. It turns out that both correspond well.

  Next, the inventor of the present invention calculated the loss rate by dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a three-dimensional frame model using Monte Carlo simulation. Here, the magnitude and material strength were fixed to see only the effect of the phase. The input was a notification spectrum (extremely rare) conforming wave of type 2 ground in which Gs was simply evaluated, and the phase was random, and 1000 waves were generated. The tolerance with respect to the target spectrum was 5%. The loss rate was evaluated in accordance with the present inventors' “Trial of performance design based on the predicted maximum loss rate of earthquakes using 3D dynamic elasto-plastic analysis” (Academic Lecture Summary of Architectural Institute of Japan, 2009). The rate of restoration was calculated for the exterior, partitions, and equipment pipes with the maximum inter-layer deformation angle, and for ceilings, floor finishes, and horizontal pipes and equipment for the equipment with the maximum response acceleration. FIG. 11 shows the response spectrum of the generated seismic wave, and FIG. 12 shows the loss rate distribution.

  As shown in FIG. 12, the loss rate was a minimum of 4.1% and a maximum of 14.0%, the average was 7.7%, and the standard deviation was 1.6%. All 1000 waves are notification spectrum compatible waves, but it was found that the loss rate is widely distributed depending on the phase. FIG. 13 shows the relationship between the initial phase generation random number of each seismic wave and the loss rate. From FIG. 13, it can be seen that there is no relationship between the initial random number for phase generation and the loss rate.

  Next, response analysis was performed using a mass system analysis model with the same seismic wave, and the correlation between the analysis result and the loss rate obtained by three-dimensional analysis was investigated. The results are shown in Table 2.

  From this result, it can be seen that the loss rate has a high correlation with the average maximum interlayer deformation angle (the average value of the maximum interlayer deformation angles of all layers) and the average maximum layer shear force. The correlation coefficient between the average maximum interlayer deformation angle and the average maximum layer shear force was as large as 0.992.

  Next, when 100 cases are sampled from the analysis results of the calculated 1000 cases and the maximum loss rate (loss rate not exceeding 90%) is calculated 10,000 times and randomly sampled ( 15) and the distribution of the maximum loss rate in the case of stratification using the average maximum interlayer deformation angle (FIG. 14) (FIG. 16). The average value of the maximum loss rate was 9.7% in both cases, and there was no bias due to stratification. The standard deviation was 0.30% for random sampling and 0.18% for stratified sampling, a 40% decrease. When this is converted by the number of samplings for obtaining the same accuracy, it becomes 2.8 times.

  In the above response analysis, analysis was performed without considering damage to furniture and fixtures such as desks and chairs, so the correlation coefficient of maximum interlayer deformation angle, maximum layer shear force, and plastic modulus was relatively high. However, when response analysis is performed in consideration of damage to fixtures and fixtures, the response acceleration and response speed have a large effect, so the correlation coefficient also becomes high for these parameters.

  Based on the above principle, in the earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to claim 1, the seismic wave generating means causes the seismic wave in the area where the building subject to damage prediction is built to use a random number for each of a plurality of magnitudes. Multiple are generated by changing.

  Here, in the present invention, the physical quantity deriving means performs a dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a mass system model using a plurality of seismic waves generated by the seismic wave generating means, and a physical quantity indicating a predetermined building response index is obtained. The physical quantity derived by the seismic wave selecting means is stratified according to a predetermined rule by the seismic wave selecting means, and a part of the physical quantity included in the layer is stratified for each stratified layer. The seismic wave corresponding to the physical quantity is selected according to a predetermined criterion.

  In the present invention, the damage state deriving means performs a dynamic elasto-plastic analysis based on the three-dimensional frame model using the seismic wave selected by the seismic wave selecting means, and the damage state is determined for each member used in the building. And the degree of damage to the building due to earthquake motion is predicted by the predicting means based on the damage state derived by the damage state deriving means.

  That is, in the present invention, a physical quantity indicating a predetermined building response index is derived by dynamic elastic-plastic analysis using a mass system model, and the derived physical quantity is stratified according to a predetermined rule to be stratified. For each layer, the seismic wave corresponding to a part of the physical quantity contained in the layer is selected according to a predetermined criterion, and only the selected seismic wave is used for dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a three-dimensional frame model. Therefore, the damage level of a building can be predicted in a shorter time than when dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a three-dimensional frame model is performed without selecting seismic waves. In the present invention, since the damage state of the member used in the building is derived by dynamic elastic-plastic analysis using a three-dimensional frame model, compared to the case where the damage state is derived by static elastic-plastic analysis. The degree of building damage can be predicted with higher accuracy.

  Thus, according to the earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to claim 1, a plurality of seismic waves in a region where a building to be damaged is built are changed by using a random number for each of a plurality of magnitudes. Generates and performs dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a mass system model using the generated seismic waves, derives physical quantities indicating predetermined building response indices, and stratifies the derived physical quantities according to predetermined rules The seismic wave corresponding to a part of the physical quantity contained in the layer is selected according to a predetermined criterion for each stratified layer, and dynamics based on the three-dimensional frame model using the selected seismic wave Elasto-plastic analysis is performed, the damage state is derived for each member used in the building, and the degree of damage to the building due to earthquake motion is predicted based on the derived damage state. The degree of damage of the object can be predicted in a short time and accurately.

  Note that, as in the invention described in claim 2, the present invention is a rule for stratifying the predetermined rule so that the number of physical quantities derived by the physical quantity deriving unit is the same. Alternatively, it may be a rule that stratification is performed by dividing each predetermined range. Thereby, the damage degree of a building can be predicted more easily.

  Further, according to the present invention, as in the invention described in claim 3, the predetermined criterion is a criterion for selecting a seismic wave corresponding to a median value in the physical quantity in each stratified layer, or The physical quantity in each stratified layer may be further divided into a plurality of layers, and a reference may be made for selecting an earthquake wave corresponding to at least one of the physical quantities belonging to each layer. Thereby, the damage degree of a building can be predicted with higher accuracy.

  Further, according to the present invention, the member may be a structural member and a non-structural member as in the invention described in claim 4. Thereby, it is possible to predict the earthquake damage situation with high accuracy in which the damage states of these structural members and non-structural members are individually taken into account.

  On the other hand, in order to achieve the above object, the program according to claim 5 changes the phase of the seismic wave in the area where the building subject to damage prediction is built using random numbers for each of a plurality of magnitudes. A plurality of seismic wave generating means and a plurality of seismic waves generated by the seismic wave generating means to perform a dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a mass system model to derive a physical quantity indicating a predetermined building response index The physical quantity deriving means and the physical quantity derived by the physical quantity deriving means are stratified according to a predetermined rule, and each of the stratified layers corresponds to a part of the physical quantity included in the layer. Seismic wave selecting means for selecting the seismic wave according to a predetermined criterion, and dynamic using a three-dimensional frame model using the seismic wave selected by the seismic wave selecting means. Performing a plastic analysis to predict a damage state deriving unit for deriving a damage state for each member used in the building, and predicting a damage degree to the building due to a ground motion based on the damage state derived by the damage state deriving unit It is for functioning as a prediction means.

  Therefore, according to the program described in claim 5, since the computer can be operated in the same manner as in the invention described in claim 1, as in the invention described in claim 1, the degree of damage to the building due to earthquake motion can be reduced. Can be predicted in a short time and with high accuracy.

  According to the present invention, a plurality of seismic waves in a region where a building for damage prediction is built are generated by changing the phase using a random number for each of a plurality of magnitudes, and the generated seismic waves are used. Dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a mass system model is performed to derive a physical quantity indicating a predetermined building response index, and the derived physical quantity is stratified according to a predetermined rule. The seismic wave corresponding to a part of the physical quantity contained in the seismic wave is selected according to a predetermined criterion, and a dynamic elasto-plastic analysis is performed by a three-dimensional frame model using the selected seismic wave, and used for the building. The damage state is derived for each member, and the damage level to the building due to the ground motion is predicted based on the derived damage state. Can be measured, the effect is obtained that.

It is a schematic diagram which shows the structure of the earthquake damage prediction system which concerns on embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of a process of the earthquake damage prediction service processing program performed by the WWW server of the earthquake damage prediction system which concerns on embodiment. It is the schematic which shows the example of a display of the earthquake risk analysis screen which concerns on embodiment. It is the schematic which shows the example of a display of the damage degree analysis screen which concerns on embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of a process of the earthquake damage prediction process program performed by the parallel calculation server of the earthquake damage prediction system which concerns on embodiment. It is the schematic which shows the example of a display of the screen which shows the prediction result of the earthquake damage which concerns on embodiment. It is the schematic which shows the example of a display of the screen which shows the re-prediction result of the earthquake damage which concerns on embodiment. It is a schematic diagram which shows the flow of the prediction process by the earthquake damage prediction system which concerns on embodiment. It is a schematic diagram for explaining the principle of the present invention. 5 is a graph for explaining the principle of the present invention. 5 is a graph for explaining the principle of the present invention. 5 is a graph for explaining the principle of the present invention. 5 is a graph for explaining the principle of the present invention. 5 is a graph for explaining the principle of the present invention. 5 is a graph for explaining the principle of the present invention. 5 is a graph for explaining the principle of the present invention.

  DESCRIPTION OF EMBODIMENTS Hereinafter, embodiments for carrying out the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. First, the configuration of an earthquake damage prediction system 10 to which the present invention is applied will be described with reference to FIG.

  As shown in the figure, the earthquake damage prediction system 10 according to the present embodiment includes a WWW (World Wide Web) server 20 and a parallel computing server 30.

  The WWW server 20 and the parallel computing server 30 are owned by the provider of the earthquake damage prediction system 10. The WWW server 20 is provided on the Internet, and the parallel computing server 30 is provided so as to be accessible from the WWW server 20. ing.

  The parallel computing server 30 executes earthquake damage prediction at high speed by parallel processing, and is the core of the earthquake damage prediction system 10. The WWW server 20 serves as a bridge between the information terminal device 40 (in this embodiment, a personal computer) owned by the user of the earthquake damage prediction system 10 and the parallel computing server 30.

  In the earthquake damage prediction system 10 according to the present embodiment, when the WWW server 20 on the Internet is accessed by the information terminal device 40 through the WWW browser (Browser) by the user, the WWW server 20 is the access source information terminal device. The screen data for inputting various data to 40 is transmitted.

  In response to this, the information terminal device 40 displays a screen based on the screen data received from the WWW server 20, and the user inputs necessary data on the screen.

  In response to this, the WWW server 20 sends the data input by the user to the parallel computing server 30 and requests that the earthquake damage be predicted using the data.

  The parallel computing server 30 that has received the request executes an earthquake damage prediction processing program, which will be described later, to execute an earthquake damage prediction, and transmits the prediction result to the WWW server 20. The parallel computing server 30 also performs processing for notifying the user who is the owner of the access source information terminal device 40 that the earthquake damage prediction has been completed.

  The user who has received the notification accesses the WWW server 20 again by the information terminal device 40 and downloads the prediction result from the WWW server 20.

  Thus, the earthquake damage prediction system 10 according to the present embodiment is configured as an ASP (Application Service Provider).

  Next, the operation of the earthquake damage prediction system 10 according to the present embodiment will be described. First, the earthquake damage prediction service process executed in the WWW server 20 will be described with reference to FIG. Note that FIG. 2 shows the processing of the earthquake damage prediction service processing program executed by the WWW server 20 in response to the input of use of the earthquake damage prediction service by the information terminal device 40 by any user. The program is stored in advance in a hard disk (not shown) built in the WWW server 20.

  First, in step 100, screen data indicating a predetermined earthquake risk analysis screen is transmitted to the access source information terminal device 40 via the Internet. In the next step 102, predetermined information from the information terminal device 40 is transmitted. Wait for input. Through the process of step 100, the earthquake risk analysis screen is displayed on the display of the access source information terminal device 40.

  FIG. 3 shows an example of an earthquake risk analysis screen displayed on the display 40A. As shown in the figure, on the seismic risk analysis screen according to the present embodiment, information indicating the position to be predicted (hereinafter referred to as “position information”) and information indicating the type of ground at the position ( Hereinafter, “ground type information”) can be input.

  As shown in the figure, in the earthquake damage prediction system 10, the location information is displayed in a list of spot names in a spot list stored in advance on the screen, and a desired one is displayed from the displayed spot names. It can be input by designating, or can be input by inputting latitude and longitude. As shown in the figure, the earthquake damage prediction system 10 selectively selects one of the four types of ground types “hard”, “normal”, “soft”, and “soft” as the ground type information. Can be entered.

  When the seismic risk analysis screen as shown in the figure is displayed on the display 40A, the user can operate the position information and the ground by operating a pointing device such as a mouse (not shown) provided on the information terminal device 40 or a keyboard. Enter type information. As a result, these pieces of information are transferred to the WWW server 20, and the above-described step 102 is affirmative and the process proceeds to step 104.

  In step 104, a PME (maximum speed) value indicating earthquake motion occurring at a probability of 10% in 50 years is calculated by an earthquake risk analysis based on the position information and ground type information input from the information terminal device 40. Since the calculation of the PME value is performed by a conventionally known technique, a detailed description thereof is omitted here.

  In the next step 106, screen data capable of displaying the calculated PME value on the seismic risk analysis screen is transmitted to the information terminal device 40 that is the access source, and in the next step 108, the predetermined data from the information terminal device 40 is transmitted. Wait for input of information. As a result of the processing in step 106, the calculated PME value is displayed on the display 40A of the information terminal device 40 as shown in FIG. 3 as an example, so that the user can refer to the PME value and there is no particular problem. When the earthquake damage prediction is to be continued, the “Damage Analysis” button displayed on the earthquake risk analysis screen is designated with a mouse (not shown). As a result, step 108 becomes affirmative and the process proceeds to step 110.

  In step 110, screen data indicating a predetermined damage degree analysis screen is transmitted to the access source information terminal device 40 via the Internet. In the next step 112, input of predetermined information from the information terminal device 40 is awaited. I do. As a result of the processing in step 110, a damage analysis screen is displayed on the display 40A of the information terminal device 40 that is the access source.

  FIG. 4 shows an example of the damage analysis screen displayed on the display 40A. As shown in the figure, in the damage analysis screen according to the present embodiment, spectrum information indicating a response spectrum to be adapted when generating a seismic wave in an earthquake damage prediction process described later, and a plurality of seismic motion levels are analyzed. The seismic motion level information indicating each seismic motion level and the seismic motion number information indicating the number of seismic motions generated per seismic motion level can be input.

  In the damage analysis screen, the building structure information related to the structure of the building to be predicted, the repurchasing price information indicating the repurchasing price of various members in the building, and the non-structural member information related to the non-structural members of the building And you can also enter.

  As shown in the figure, the earthquake damage prediction system 10 can selectively input one of the three types of “notification”, “input seismic motion technology guideline”, and “resistant” as the spectrum information. it can. The building structure information includes information on the structure type of the building to be predicted, the building use, the number of building floors, the total floor area, and the building area. Furthermore, the non-structural member information includes information on each of partition walls, non-structural floors, ceilings, exteriors (outer wall finishing, sashes), equipment, and equipment piping.

  When the damage degree analysis screen as shown in the figure is displayed on the display 40A, the user operates a pointing device such as a mouse (not shown) provided on the information terminal device 40 or an operation of the keyboard, and the spectrum information, seismic motion is displayed. Input level information, earthquake motion number information, building structure information, replacement procurement price information, and non-structural material information as required. As a result, the input information is transferred to the WWW server 20, and the above step 112 becomes affirmative and the process proceeds to step 114.

  In step 114, the parallel calculation server receives the various information input in step 112, the PME value calculated in step 104, and execution instruction information for instructing to execute earthquake damage prediction using the information. 30, after requesting the parallel computing server 30 to execute the earthquake damage prediction process, the earthquake damage prediction service processing program is terminated.

  On the other hand, when the execution instruction information is received, the parallel computing server 30 executes an earthquake damage prediction process using various information received together with the execution instruction information.

  Next, the earthquake damage prediction process according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing the flow of the earthquake damage prediction processing program executed by the parallel computing server 30 at this time, and the program is stored in advance in a hard disk (not shown) built in the parallel computing server 30. ing. Here, in order to avoid complications, a case will be described in which the PME value calculated by the processing in step 104 of the earthquake damage prediction service processing program is used without using the earthquake motion level information.

  In step 200 in the figure, data indicating seismic waves at the maximum speed level indicated by the PME value input from the WWW server 20 is generated by the number indicated by the earthquake motion number information.

  Here, the data indicating the seismic wave is generated so as to match the response spectrum indicated by the spectrum information input from the WWW server 20 in consideration of the distribution of magnitude. In generating data indicating the seismic wave, the phase is randomly generated with a uniform distribution using random numbers. In addition, the distribution of the above magnitude is based on the maximum ground motion speed in the literature "Saburoh Midorikawa, Masashi Matsuoka, and Koichi Sakugawa. Site effects on strong-motion records observed during the 1987 chiba-ken-toho-oki, japan earthquake. Converted to the maximum acceleration of the base according to the earthquake engineering symposium, pp. E085-E090, 1994, and the literature “Masao Annaka, Fumio Yamazaki, Fuyuki Katahira. Using the distance attenuation formula in the 24th Earthquake Engineering Research Conference Proceedings, pp. 161-132, 1997, the following equation (1) is used.

  Here, w (Mi, Vj) is a ratio of the magnitude Mi (i = 1,..., M) at the maximum speed Vj, and Δ (Mi, Vj) is a distance (seismic epicenter) at which the maximum speed Vj is generated at the magnitude. Distance), and N (Mi) represents the annual frequency of the magnitude Mi.

  Note that N (M) follows the following Guttenberg-Richter equation (2), and the value of b is 1.0 assuming a standard region. Note that equation (2) is an equation indicating that earthquakes are more likely to occur with lower magnitude.

  In the next step 202, dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a mass system model created based on building structure information is performed using data indicating any of the seismic waves generated in step 200, and the maximum acceleration of each layer of the building is determined. The maximum velocity, the maximum layer shear force, the maximum interlayer deformation angle and the plasticity rate are calculated.

  That is, here, a three-dimensional frame model of the target building is created, and an elasto-plastic analysis (push-over analysis) by the load increment method is performed. In this analysis, the initial stress due to its own weight is taken into consideration. Then, the three-dimensional frame model is converted into a mass system model by approximating the load deformation relationship of each layer obtained as a result of the analysis to trilinearity, and data indicating one of the seismic waves generated in step 200 is input to this model. Then, dynamic elasto-plastic analysis is executed.

  In the course of this analysis, the maximum acceleration, maximum velocity, maximum layer shear force, maximum interlayer deformation angle and plasticity rate (hereinafter referred to as “building response index”) of each layer can be obtained.

  Therefore, in the next step 204, the physical quantity indicating the building response index obtained by the dynamic elastic-plastic analysis by the mass system model is stored in the hard disk built in the parallel calculation server 30, and in the next step 206, It is determined whether or not the processing of step 202 to step 204 has been completed for all the seismic waves generated in step 200. If the determination is negative, the processing returns to step 202 and processing of step 202 to step 204 is performed again. When the determination is affirmative, the routine proceeds to step 208. In addition, when performing the process of said step 202-step 206 repeatedly, the seismic wave which was not applied until then is applied.

  In step 208, the physical quantities corresponding to all the seismic waves obtained by the above processing (in this embodiment, physical quantities indicating the maximum acceleration, maximum velocity, maximum shear force, maximum interlayer deformation angle, and plastic modulus of each layer). Among these, the physical quantity of a predetermined type (in this embodiment, the maximum interlayer deformation angle) is read from the hard disk, and the average value of all the layers is calculated for each corresponding seismic wave for all the read physical quantities. After that, the averaged physical quantity is stratified according to a predetermined rule.

  In the present embodiment, as the predetermined rule, the rule that the number of physical quantities is stratified so as to be equal to a predetermined number N (10 in the present embodiment) is applied. Yes. At this time, in the present embodiment, stratification is performed by dividing the physical quantity into N pieces in order from the minimum value to the maximum value, but not limited to this, the physical quantity is sequentially changed from the maximum value to the minimum value. The physical quantity may be stratified by dividing every N pieces, or dividing the physical quantity into N pieces in order from the median to the minimum value and the maximum value.

  In some cases, a specific value is included in the physical quantity. In this case, the stratification may be performed after the specific value is deleted.

  As described above, in the present embodiment, as the predetermined rule, a rule that stratifies the physical quantity so that the number is the same as the predetermined number is applied. However, the present invention is not limited to this. Instead, for example, other rules such as a rule of stratification by dividing the physical quantity into predetermined ranges may be applied.

  In the present embodiment, only the maximum interlayer deformation angle is applied as the above-mentioned predetermined type. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and the earthquake resistance performance of the building subject to damage prediction and the damage to fixtures and equipment are also included. You may make it determine the physical quantity which shows the building response parameter | index to apply according to whether etc. are added. In this case, from the principle of the present invention described above, for example, when not considering damage to furniture and fixtures such as desks and chairs, at least one of the maximum layer shear force, the maximum interlayer deformation angle, and the plasticity ratio is applied. In consideration of damage to furniture and fixtures, it is preferable to apply at least one of maximum acceleration and maximum speed.

  In the next step 210, seismic waves corresponding to some of the physical quantities included in the layer are selected on the basis of a predetermined criterion for each layer stratified by the processing of step 208.

  In the present embodiment, as the predetermined standard, the standard for selecting the seismic wave corresponding to the median value in the physical quantity in each stratified layer is applied. For example, even if other criteria such as criteria for selecting the seismic wave corresponding to at least one physical quantity among the physical quantities belonging to each layer are applied by further stratifying the physical quantities in each stratified layer Good.

  Next, the damage amount (recovery cost) of the building is estimated using the data indicating the seismic wave selected by the above processing.

  For this reason, first, in the next step 212, in order to estimate the damage of the frame, any one of the data indicating the selected seismic wave is input to the three-dimensional frame model created based on the building structure information. Dynamic elasto-plastic analysis is performed to determine the damage status of each column, beam, and wall (seismic wall) element.

  Then, in the next step 214, assuming a reinforcing method such as the degree of the damage state, for example, epoxy resin injection when bending cracking occurs, but steel plate reinforcement when shear yielding, recovery cost is based on that. Is calculated. The damage state and restoration cost were set with reference to the document “Junka Jun. Seismic load for design based on optimum reliability using loss cost model, 1998.”, and the restoration of the frame by the following equation (3) Calculate the cost.

  Here, Rs represents the frame restoration cost, fsc (z) represents the column damage function, fsb (z) represents the beam damage function, fsw (z) represents the wall damage function, and z represents the damage state.

  In the next step 216, the damage state of the non-structural member is determined and the restoration cost is calculated as follows.

  First, the restoration cost for finishing (interior) that accompanies damage to the chassis is calculated in proportion to the calculated damage to the chassis. In addition, other interior restoration costs are calculated according to the characteristics of each part. For the ceiling and unstructured floor, the damage state is determined based on the acceleration of each layer, and for the partition, based on the inter-layer deformation angle of each column of each layer, and the replacement cost is multiplied by a factor based on the damage function set for each damage state Is the recovery cost as shown in equation (4).

  Here, Ri is the interior restoration cost, Cc, Cf, and Cp are the repurchasing prices of the ceiling, non-structure floor, and partition, respectively, and fc, ff, and fp are the damage (damage) of the ceiling, non-structure floor, and partition, respectively. Aj represents the maximum acceleration of each column, the upper end in the case of a ceiling, the lower end in the case of an unstructured floor, and θj the interlayer deformation angle of each column.

  The exterior is divided into a wall surface and a sash, and each damage state is judged according to the interlayer deformation angle of each column part corresponding to the outer wall. The amount multiplied by is taken as the restoration cost as shown in equation (5).

  Here, Cew and Ces are the wall surface and sash replacement procurement price, few and fes are the wall surface and sash damage (damage) functions, respectively, and θi is the interlayer deformation angle of each column of the outer wall.

  The equipment determines the damage state of the vertical piping by the inter-layer deformation angle, and the horizontal piping and equipment by the acceleration. Similarly, the damage function set for each damage state multiplies the repurchasing price by a factor for each layer (6 As shown in the formula, recovery costs are assumed.

  Here, Cfh (i) and Cfv (i) represent the re-procurement price of the horizontal piping / equipment and vertical piping of each layer, and ffh and ffv represent the damage (damage degree) function, respectively.

  In the next step 218, the restoration cost for the entire building is calculated by adding the external restoration cost corresponding to the ratio in the repurchasing price to each restoration cost calculated as described above, and in the next step 220, The loss rate is calculated by dividing the calculated restoration cost for the entire building by the replacement cost for the entire building.

  In the next step 222, it is determined whether or not the processing in steps 212 to 220 has been completed for all the seismic waves selected in step 210. If the determination is negative, the process returns to step 212 and again. The processing of step 212 to step 220 is executed, and when an affirmative determination is made, the routine proceeds to step 224. In addition, when performing the process of said step 212-step 222 repeatedly, among the said selected seismic waves, the seismic wave which was not applied until then is applied.

  In step 224, the distribution of loss rates in all the seismic waves obtained by the processing in steps 212 to 222 is approximated by the standard β distribution, and the PML value is calculated from the 90% non-excess probability. In the next step 226, Then, the breakdown ratio of the frame, the interior, the exterior, the equipment, and the external structure in the calculated PML value is calculated.

  Then, in the next step 228, information indicating the calculated PML value and the breakdown ratio is output to the WWW server 20, and in the next step 230, for the user who is the owner of the information terminal device 40 that is the access source Then, after performing the process for notifying that the prediction of the earthquake damage has ended, the earthquake damage prediction processing program is ended.

  When the user receives the notification, the information terminal device 40 accesses the WWW server 20 and downloads screen data from which the PML value and information indicating the breakdown ratio can be displayed.

  As a result, on the display 40A of the information terminal device 40, as shown in FIG. 6 as an example, a screen showing the PML value and the breakdown ratio is displayed. The prediction results shown in the figure are based on the parameter tuning based on the actual damage data of the 1st basement and 9th floor SRC office buildings damaged by the Hyogoken-Nanbu Earthquake using the earthquake damage prediction system 10 according to the present embodiment. It is a prediction result after going through.

  By referring to the screen, the user can grasp the PML value and the ratio of equipment damage is large.

  In addition, since the process which produces | generates the data which show the seismic wave by step 200 of the said earthquake damage prediction process program requires a long time even if it performs by parallel processing, in the parallel calculation server 30 which concerns on this Embodiment, the produced | generated seismic wave is shown. The indicated data is stored for a predetermined period (here, one year). For this reason, when the buildings to be predicted are the same and various information set on the damage analysis screen (see FIG. 4) is changed and the earthquake damage is predicted again, the data must be input. Only by this, a prediction result can be obtained in a short time.

  For example, if the first prediction result is as shown in FIG. 6, it can be understood that the rate of damage to the equipment is large. When the result obtained is as shown in FIG. 7, it can be seen that the PML value has become 20 or less by this countermeasure, and the effectiveness of the countermeasure can be grasped.

  FIG. 8 summarizes the flow of prediction processing by the earthquake damage prediction system 10 according to the present embodiment.

  As shown in the figure, the earthquake damage prediction system 10 first analyzes the earthquake risk by calculating the PME value (corresponding to steps 100 to 104 of the earthquake damage prediction service processing program).

  Next, generate multiple seismic wave data for the area where the building subject to damage prediction is built by changing the phase using a random number for each of multiple magnitudes, and use the seismic wave data A physical quantity (in this embodiment, maximum acceleration, maximum speed, maximum layer shear force, maximum interlayer deformation angle, and plastic modulus) that represents a building response index is derived by performing dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a mass system model (earthquake) Corresponds to steps 200 to 206 of the damage prediction processing program).

  Next, stratify one of the physical quantities indicating the derived building response index, select seismic waves corresponding to some of the physical quantities included in each stratified layer, and select the seismic waves A damage state is derived for each member by performing dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a three-dimensional frame model using the data shown (corresponding to steps 208 to 212 of the earthquake damage prediction processing program).

  Finally, a PML value for a building caused by earthquake motion is derived according to the derived damage state (corresponding to steps 214 to 224 of the earthquake damage prediction processing program).

  The process of step 200 of the earthquake damage prediction processing program is the seismic wave generation means of the present invention, the process of step 202 is the physical quantity derivation means of the present invention, the processes of steps 208 and 210 are the seismic wave selection process of the present invention, and the step 212 These processes correspond to the damage state deriving means of the present invention, and the processes of steps 214 to 224 correspond to the predicting means of the present invention.

  As described above in detail, in this embodiment, a plurality of seismic waves in the area where the building to be damaged is built are generated by changing the phase using a random number for each of a plurality of magnitudes, Perform dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a mass system model using multiple generated seismic waves, derive physical quantities indicating a predetermined building response index, stratify the derived physical quantities according to predetermined rules, and stratify For each layer, the seismic wave corresponding to a part of the physical quantity contained in the layer is selected according to a predetermined criterion, and the dynamic elasto-plastic analysis based on the three-dimensional frame model is performed using the selected seismic wave. The damage state is derived for each member used in the building, and the degree of damage to the building due to the earthquake motion is predicted based on the derived damage state. The degree can be estimated in a short time and accurately.

  In this embodiment, since the member is applied as a structural member and a non-structural member, it is possible to predict a highly accurate earthquake damage situation in which the damage states of the structural member and the non-structural member are individually taken into account. .

  As mentioned above, although this invention was demonstrated using embodiment, the technical scope of this invention is not limited to the range as described in the said embodiment. Various modifications or improvements can be added to the above-described embodiment without departing from the gist of the invention, and embodiments to which such modifications or improvements are added are also included in the technical scope of the present invention.

  The above embodiments do not limit the invention according to the claims (claims), and all the combinations of features described in the embodiments are essential for the solution means of the invention. Is not limited. The embodiments described above include inventions at various stages, and various inventions can be extracted by appropriately combining a plurality of disclosed constituent elements. Even if some constituent requirements are deleted from all the constituent requirements shown in the embodiment, as long as an effect is obtained, a configuration from which these some constituent requirements are deleted can be extracted as an invention.

  For example, each of the formulas (1) to (6) shown in the above embodiment is an example, and it goes without saying that each formula can be changed as appropriate without departing from the gist of the present invention.

  The configuration of the earthquake damage prediction system (see FIG. 1) shown in the above embodiment is also an example, and it goes without saying that it can be changed as appropriate without departing from the gist of the present invention.

  For example, in the above embodiment, the case where the earthquake damage prediction system is realized as a service on the Internet has been described. However, the earthquake damage prediction system can also be realized as a service for directly predicting earthquake damage without using the Internet. Moreover, although the said embodiment demonstrated the case where the prediction of an earthquake damage was performed by the distributed process by the WWW server 20 and the parallel calculation server 30, it can also be set as the form which performs prediction with one computer single-piece | unit. As a form in this case, the form which performs the earthquake damage prediction process program in the form including calculation of the PME value performed with the earthquake damage prediction service process program by the said computer can be illustrated. In these cases, the same effects as those of the above embodiment can be obtained.

  In the above-described embodiment, the case where the earthquake damage prediction is realized by software processing has been described. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and the form realized by the hardware configuration, software, and hardware It is good also as a form implement | achieved by the combination of a structure.

  Furthermore, the flow of each process of the earthquake damage prediction service processing program (see FIG. 2) and the earthquake damage prediction processing program (see FIG. 5) shown in the above embodiment is also an example, and does not depart from the gist of the present invention. It goes without saying that unnecessary processing steps may be deleted, new processing steps may be added, or the order of processing steps may be changed within the range.

10 Earthquake damage prediction system 20 WWW server 30 Parallel computing server 40 Information terminal device 40A Display

Claims (5)

Seismic wave generating means for generating a plurality of seismic waves in the area where the building to be damaged is predicted by changing the phase using a random number for each of a plurality of magnitudes;
A physical quantity derivation means for conducting a dynamic elasto-plastic analysis by a mass system model using a plurality of seismic waves generated by the seismic wave generation means, and deriving a physical quantity indicating a predetermined building response index;
The physical quantity derived by the physical quantity deriving means is stratified according to a predetermined rule, and the seismic wave corresponding to a part of the physical quantities included in the layer is determined in advance for each stratified layer. Seismic wave selection means to select on the basis of
Damage state deriving means for conducting a dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a three-dimensional frame model using the seismic wave selected by the seismic wave selecting means, and deriving a damage state for each member used in the building;
Predicting means for predicting the degree of damage to the building due to ground motion based on the damage state derived by the damage state deriving means;
Earthquake damage prediction device equipped with. The predetermined rule is a rule of stratifying so that the number of physical quantities derived by the physical quantity deriving means is the same, or stratifying by dividing into predetermined ranges The earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to claim 1, which is a rule. The predetermined criterion is a criterion for selecting a seismic wave corresponding to the median value in the physical quantity in each stratified layer, or the physical quantity in each stratified layer is further stratified into a plurality of layers. The earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to claim 1 or 2, which is a criterion for selecting an earthquake wave corresponding to at least one of the physical quantities belonging to each layer. The earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the member is a structural member or a non-structural member. Computer
Seismic wave generating means for generating a plurality of seismic waves in the area where the building to be damaged is predicted by changing the phase using a random number for each of a plurality of magnitudes;
A physical quantity derivation means for conducting a dynamic elasto-plastic analysis by a mass system model using a plurality of seismic waves generated by the seismic wave generation means, and deriving a physical quantity indicating a predetermined building response index;
The physical quantity derived by the physical quantity deriving means is stratified according to a predetermined rule, and the seismic wave corresponding to a part of the physical quantities included in the layer is determined in advance for each stratified layer. Seismic wave selection means to select on the basis of
Damage state deriving means for conducting a dynamic elasto-plastic analysis using a three-dimensional frame model using the seismic wave selected by the seismic wave selecting means, and deriving a damage state for each member used in the building;
Predicting means for predicting the degree of damage to the building due to ground motion based on the damage state derived by the damage state deriving means;
Program to function as.