JP2011258139A - Project cost prediction apparatus, project cost prediction method, and project cost prediction program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a project cost prediction apparatus capable of improving prediction accuracy of the final cost of a project.SOLUTION: A project cost prediction apparatus is provided with: a task information storage part 4 for storing task information including a project ID, a task ID, a progress rate of the task, a budget of the task, a functional phase classification of the task, and a work process classification of the task; a cost information storage part 6 for storing cost information including a project ID, a task ID, a resulting cost value, and a cost division; a cost information generation part 9 for every task for generating cost information for every task by adding a determined cost accumulated value and an estimated cost accumulated value that are accumulated for every cost division to the task information; and a cost calculation part 11 for determining a final cost prediction value of the project by summing the determined cost accumulated value and the estimated cost accumulated value of the cost information for every task, and a predicted cost that is calculated from the progress rate and the budget of the task.

Description

  The present invention relates to a project cost prediction apparatus for predicting the final cost of an ongoing project.

  Conventionally, there is a progress management technique called EVM (Earned Value Management) as one method for predicting the final cost of an ongoing project. In this method, the cost at the completion of the project is predicted based on the current cost efficiency.

  However, in EVM, the current cost efficiency is reflected in all subsequent operations. Therefore, if an abnormality that locally affects only a part of the operation has occurred, the effect is totally affected. Furthermore, there is a problem that the prediction accuracy of the final cost is lowered. As a technique for solving such a problem, for example, there is a technique disclosed in Patent Documents 1 to 3 below. In these documents, the accuracy of predicting the final cost is improved by a method of improving the EVM. Specifically, the accuracy of predicting the final cost is limited by limiting the influence when an abnormality occurs during the work. Has improved.

JP 2008-171122 A JP 2004-287991 A JP 2007-018163 A

  According to the above-mentioned conventional technology, the impact when an abnormality occurs is dealt with limitedly. However, in the actual project, if there is a delay in the work of a certain department, there is also little in the department in the post-process of that work. There is an effect on the work to be executed next by the department in which the delay has occurred, and the magnitude of the effect varies depending on the content of the abnormality. However, since the scope of impact in the future when it occurs and the extent to which it does not reach and the magnitude of the impact will not be considered for each individual task, it will be predicted dramatically There was a problem that the accuracy could not be improved.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above, and an object of the present invention is to obtain a project cost prediction apparatus capable of improving the prediction accuracy of the final cost of a project.

  In order to solve the above-described problems and achieve the object, the present invention provides a project cost prediction apparatus for predicting a final cost of a project in which tasks can be classified in a functional phase or a work process. Task information storage means for storing task information including progress rate, task budget, task function phase type and task work process type for each task, project ID, task ID, cost value, and cost Cost information that includes either a fixed cost that is a fixed cost or a cost category that classifies either an estimated cost that is not determined at the present time but is determined in the future. Cost information acquisition means for acquiring the acquired cost information, and a cost information acquisition means for acquiring the acquired cost information. All the task information stored with the same project ID from the task information storage means and the task information storage means, and all the cost information stored with the same project ID is read out from the cost information storage means. By adding a fixed cost cumulative value and an estimated cost cumulative value obtained by accumulating the cost value stored in the cost information including the same task ID as the task ID of the task information for each cost category, the task-specific cost information is obtained. Task-specific cost information generating means, task-specific cost information storage means for storing the task-specific cost information, and task-specific cost information are read from the task-specific cost information storage means. Add the cumulative value to the estimated cost calculated using the progress rate and budget. Characterized in that and a cost calculation means for calculating the final cost prediction value of the project by.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to improve the accuracy of predicting the final cost of a project.

FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of a project cost prediction apparatus. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the basic project information. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of task information. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of cost information. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of task unallocated cost information. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of task-specific cost information. FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating the relationship between attribute items and tasks, and the cost for each task. FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing the project final cost prediction process. FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing task ID input processing. FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of an electronic computer capable of executing a project cost prediction program.

  Embodiments of a project cost prediction apparatus according to the present invention will be described below in detail with reference to the drawings. Note that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments.

Embodiment.
FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of a project cost prediction apparatus. The project cost prediction apparatus includes a project basic information input unit 1, a project basic information storage unit 2, a task information input unit 3, a task information storage unit 4, a cost information acquisition unit 5, and a cost information storage unit 6. , A task non-allocation information storage unit 7, a task allocation input unit 8, a task-specific cost information generation unit 9, a task-specific cost information storage unit 10, and a cost calculation unit 11.

  The project basic information input unit 1 is an input unit for an operator to input basic information about a project. The project basic information storage unit 2 is a storage unit for storing the project basic information input in the project basic information input unit 1.

  The task information input unit 3 is an input unit for an operator to input basic information such as attribute information related to a task and budget costs. The task information storage unit 4 is a storage unit for storing the task information input in the task information input unit 3.

  The cost information acquisition unit 5 acquires cost information created by a peripheral external system (a system of a department related to the project). The cost information storage unit 6 is a storage unit for storing the cost information acquired by the cost information acquisition unit 5.

  The task unassigned information storage unit 7 is a storage unit for temporarily storing cost information to which no task is assigned among the cost information acquired by the cost information acquiring unit 5. The task assignment input unit 8 inputs a task ID for the task unassigned cost information stored in the task unassigned information storage unit 7 and stores the cost information after the input in the cost information storage unit 6.

  The task-specific cost information generation unit 9 uses the task information read from the task information storage unit 4 and the cost information read from the cost information storage unit 6 to generate task-specific cost information in which costs are accumulated for each task. The task-specific cost information storage unit 10 is a storage unit for storing task-specific cost information generated by the task-specific cost information generation unit 9.

  The cost calculation unit 11 reads cost information related to the project basic information read from the project basic information storage unit 2 from the task-specific cost information storage unit 10 and predicts a final cost for the project.

  Next, the contents of data stored in each storage unit will be described. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of the basic project information stored in the basic project information storage unit 2. The basic project information includes a project ID and a project name.

  The project ID is an ID assigned to identify each project. The project name corresponds to the project ID on a one-to-one basis, and is a name representing a project including the name of a customer or product. The project basic information storage unit 2 stores information for each project, for example, project ID: P0001, project name: ABC system introduction project for XYZ company.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of task information stored in the task information storage unit 4. The task information includes project ID, task ID, task name, scheduled start date, scheduled end date, start date, end date, progress rate, budget cost, attribute item A, and attribute item B. And.

  The project ID is an ID assigned to identify each project. The task ID is an ID for identifying an individual task set in each project. The task name is a name that corresponds to the task ID on a one-to-one basis and represents the content of the task in the project. The scheduled start date represents the scheduled start date of the task. The scheduled end date represents the scheduled end date of the task. The start date represents the date when the actual work of the task is started. The end date represents the date when the actual work of the task has ended. The progress rate represents the current progress rate of the task. The budget cost indicates a budget allocated to the task. The attribute item A represents an attribute value to which the task belongs from the attribute item A. As an example of the attribute value type of the attribute item A, there is a function phase (function 1, function 2, function 3,...) In the information system field. The attribute item B represents an attribute value to which the task belongs from the attribute item B. As an example of the attribute value type of the attribute item B, there is a work process (design, program development, test,...) In the information system field.

  The task information storage unit 4 includes, for example, project ID: P0001, task ID: T13, task name: ZZZ function detailed design, scheduled start date: 2010/01/18, scheduled end date: 2010/01/29, start date: 2010/01/18, end date: (not filled in), progress rate: 0.50, budget cost: 500000, attribute item A: A1 (ZZZ function), attribute item B: B3 (detailed design), etc. Store information for each task.

  FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of cost information stored in the cost information storage unit 6. The cost information includes a project ID, a task ID, a cost category, a fixed / expected cost, a data collection date, a data collection time, and a collection file name. The project ID is an ID assigned to identify each project. The task ID is an ID for identifying an individual task set in each project. The cost category indicates whether the cost related to the file is a fixed cost or an expected cost. The fixed / expected cost indicates the cost that has occurred. The data collection date indicates the date when the cost information is read out. The data collection time indicates the time when the cost information is read out. The collection file name indicates the name of the file.

  The cost information storage unit 6 includes, for example, project ID: P0001, task ID: T13, cost classification: K, finalized / expected cost: 10000, data collection date: 2010/01/25, data collection time: 08: 30.00. Each information such as collection file name: sagoyo_jikan0125 is stored in units of acquired cost information.

  Here, the deterministic cost (cost category: K) is a cost already recorded in a system that manages costs such as an accounting system among the costs incurred in the task. Further, the expected cost (cost category: M) is the cost incurred at the present time in each department, although it is not recorded in the accounting system etc. among the costs incurred in the task.

  FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of task unallocated cost information stored in the task unallocated information storage unit 7. The task unassigned cost information includes a project ID, a cost category, a fixed / expected cost, a data collection date, a data collection time, and a collection file name. Task ID information is removed from the cost information shown in FIG.

  FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of task-specific cost information stored in the task-specific cost information storage unit 10. The cost information by task includes the project ID, task ID, task name, scheduled start date, scheduled end date, start date, end date, progress rate, budget cost, fixed cost, and expected cost. And attribute item A and attribute item B. Based on the information on the cost category and the fixed / expected cost of the cost information (see FIG. 4) stored in the cost information storage unit 6 in the task information (see FIG. 3) stored in the task information storage unit 4, Information of the fixed cost and the expected cost is added.

  The fixed cost can be obtained by accumulating corresponding cost information for each task. On the other hand, the expected cost is recorded as a fixed cost later. For this reason, the amount once recorded in the estimated cost and subsequently recorded in the finalized cost is subtracted from the cumulative value of the expected cost each time. At the end of the project, the expected cost is “0” for all tasks. In addition to the contents stored in the task information storage unit 4, the task-specific cost information storage unit 10 stores information for each task such as a fixed cost: 280000 and an expected cost: 50000.

  Next, the project cost final prediction process in the project cost prediction apparatus will be described. Here, as an example, an ongoing project in which attribute items and tasks shown in FIG. 7 are set will be described. FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating the relationship between attribute items and tasks, and the cost for each task. Here, the attribute item A is classified by the function phase, and for the attribute value Ai (i = 1, 2, 3, 4), the attribute value A1 is the function 1, and the attribute value A2 is the function 2 and the attribute value A3 is the function. 3. Let the attribute value A4 be function 4. Also, attribute item B is classified by work process, and attribute value B1 is designed (process) for attribute value Bj (j = 1, 2, 3). Hereinafter, attribute value B2 is program development (process), attribute value. Let A3 be a test (process). Each task classified by the above classification is represented as a task Tij. For example, task T23 relates to a test process (attribute value B3) in charge of function 2 (attribute value A2). Each task Tij describes a progress rate, a fixed cost and an expected cost of each task at the present time, and a budget cost assigned at the start of the project.

  Note that the table shown in FIG. 7 is used to easily grasp the relationship and cost status of each task, and may not be generated in the course of the project cost final prediction process in the project cost prediction apparatus. These pieces of information are stored in the task-specific cost information for each task.

  Specifically, when the progress of the project is shown in FIG. 7, the project final cost prediction process at the time will be described based on the flowchart. FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing the project final cost prediction process of the project cost prediction apparatus.

  First, in the project cost prediction apparatus, before starting the project, the project basic information input unit 1 accepts input of basic information about the project and stores the input project basic information in the project basic information storage unit 2 (step S1). ). At this time, the contents stored in the project basic information storage unit 2 are the information shown in FIG.

  Next, the task information input unit 3 accepts input of information regarding each task, and stores the input task information in the task information storage unit 4 (step S2). The task information input unit 3 accepts input of items other than the start date, the scheduled date, and the progress rate before starting the project in the task information shown in FIG. The start date is the date when the task is actually started, and the end date is the date when the task is actually completed. The progress rate is updated regularly or when the project cost final prediction process is performed. In the case of the project shown in FIG. 7, the task information input unit 3 inputs task information for 12 tasks.

  Next, the cost information acquisition part 5 acquires cost information from a peripheral system, and memorize | stores the acquired cost information in the cost information storage part 6 (step S3).

  Next, the task-specific cost information generation unit 9 reads the task information from the task information storage unit 4, and also reads the cost information from the cost information storage unit 6, and uses the task information and the cost information to perform the task-specific cost information. And the generated task-specific cost information is stored in the task-specific cost information storage unit 10 (step S4). As described above, the task-specific cost information generation unit 9 adds to the task information (see FIG. 3) information on the confirmed cost and the estimated cost based on the confirmed / expected cost of the cost information (see FIG. 4). Generate cost information for each task. In the case of the project shown in FIG. 7, the task-specific cost information generation unit 9 generates twelve task-specific cost information.

  At this time, the determined cost and the expected cost are obtained by accumulating the corresponding cost information for each task. That is, when there are five pieces of cost information corresponding to a certain task, the task-specific cost information generation unit 9 accumulates the fixed cost and the expected cost described in the five pieces of cost information. The task-specific cost information generation unit 9 obtains the estimated cost by performing a subtraction process as necessary.

  Next, the cost calculation unit 11 reads the project basic information from the project basic information storage unit 2, and reads the task-specific cost information from the task-specific cost information storage unit 10 (step S5). And the cost calculation part 11 calculates the estimated cost of the whole project using the read project basic information and task-specific cost information.

  First, the cost calculation part 11 totals the fixed cost classified by attribute value and the estimated cost classified by attribute value for every attribute item (step S6). Specifically, the cost calculation unit 11 reads the project ID stored in the project basic information storage unit 2 and reads all task information having the project ID from the task-specific cost information storage unit 10. Then, the cost calculation unit 11 aggregates the fixed cost and the expected cost for each attribute value Ai (i = 1, 2, 3, 4) in the attribute item A for the task information having the same project ID. In the case of the attribute item A, the calculation is performed as shown in the following formulas (1) and (2).

KAi = total value of fixed costs of tasks having attribute value Ai in attribute item A (1)
MAi = total value of expected costs of tasks having attribute value Ai in attribute item A (2)

Specifically, in the project shown in FIG.
KA1 = 330000 + 550000 + 60000 = 940000
MA1 = 0 + 0 + 10000 = 10000
KA2 = 320000 + 240000 + 0 = 560000
MA2 = 0 + 30000 + 0 = 30000
KA3 = 14,000 + 0 + 0 = 14,000
MA3 = 50000 + 0 + 0 = 50000
KA4 = 30000 + 0 + 0 = 30000
MA4 = 0 + 0 + 0 = 0

  Similarly, for the same cost information that has been read, the cost calculation unit 11 also sets a fixed cost and an estimated cost for each attribute value Bj (j = 1, 2, 3) in the attribute item B for the attribute item B. Tally. In the case of the attribute item B, totaling is performed as in the following formulas (3) and (4).

KBj = total value of fixed costs of tasks having attribute value Bj in attribute item B (3)
MBj = total value of expected cost of task having attribute value Bj in attribute item B (4)

Specifically, in the project shown in FIG.
KB1 = 330000 + 320000 + 140000 + 30000 = 820000
MB1 = 0 + 0 + 50000 + 0 = 50000
KB2 = 550000 + 240000 + 0 + 0 = 790000
MB2 = 0 + 30000 + 0 + 0 = 30000
KB3 = 60000 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 60000
MB3 = 10000 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 10000

  Note that the cost totalization by the attribute items A and B only differs in the classification within each attribute item, and the cost information to be aggregated is the same. Therefore, the sum of KAi (ΣKAi) and the sum of KBj (ΣKBj) have the same value (1670000), and the sum of MAi (ΣMAi) and the sum of MBj (ΣMBj) have the same value (90000).

  Next, the cost calculation unit 11 aggregates the budget costs for the completed task and the completed portion of the task being executed (step S7). Here, the completed tasks are task T11, task T12, and task T21, and the running tasks are task T13, task T22, task T31, and task T41.

  The cost calculation part 11 totals for every attribute item A and B similarly to step S6. At this time, the budget cost to be compared with the final cost and the expected cost is the budget cost for the completed portion of the completed task and the task being executed (that is, the cost that is expected to be used), so the progress base is adjusted. Therefore, a value obtained by multiplying the budget cost of each task by the progress rate is used. Specifically, using the task information record for the project, the attribute items A and B are tabulated as the following formulas (5) and (6), respectively.

YAi = total value of (budget cost × progress rate) for tasks having attribute value Ai in attribute item A
... (5)
YBj = total value of (budget cost × progress rate) for tasks having attribute value Bj in attribute item B
(6)

Specifically, in the project shown in FIG.
YA1 = 300000 × 1 + 500000 × 1 + 200000 × 0.4 = 880000
YA2 = 300000 × 1 + 500000 × 0.5 + 200000 × 0 = 550000
YA3 = 300,000 × 0.6 + 500000 × 0 + 200000 × 0 = 18,000
YA4 = 300,000 × 0.1 + 500000 × 0 + 200000 × 0 = 30000
YB1 = 300000 × 1 + 300000 × 1 + 300000 × 0.6
+ 300000 × 0.1 = 810000
YB2 = 500000 × 1 + 500000 × 0.5 + 500000 × 0
+ 500000 × 0 = 750000
YB3 = 200000 × 0.4 + 200000 × 0 + 200000 × 0
+ 200000 × 0 = 80000

  Next, the cost calculation unit 11 calculates an efficiency index for each attribute value of the attribute items A and B using the values obtained in steps S6 and S7 (step S8). Each efficiency index is calculated by the following formulas (7) and (8).

SAi = efficiency index of attribute value Ai of attribute item A = (KAi + MAi) / YAi (7)
SBj = efficiency index of attribute value Bj of attribute item A = (KBj + MBj) / YBj (8)

Specifically, in the project shown in FIG.
SA1 = (KA1 + MA1) /YA1=1.08
SA2 = (KA2 + MA2) /YA2=1.07
SA3 = (KA3 + MA3) /YA3=1.06
SA4 = (KA4 + MA4) / YA4 = 1
SB1 = (KB1 + MB1) /YB1=1.07
SB2 = (KB2 + MB2) /YB2=1.09
SB3 = (KB3 + MB3) /YB3=0.86

  Next, the cost calculation unit 11 calculates the scheduled cost corresponding to the uncompleted part for the task being executed (step S9). Assuming that costs are generated with the same cost efficiency as completed and being executed (completed part), the cost is calculated by multiplying the budget cost by the efficiency index for each attribute value of attribute item A and attribute item B. Efficiency. Specifically, for a task with a progress rate other than 1, the calculation is performed as in the following formula (9).

Pij = scheduled cost of task Tij having attribute value Ai and attribute value Bj
= Budget cost of task Tij × (1−progress rate) × SAi × SBj (9)

Specifically, in the project shown in FIG.
P13 = 200000 × (1-0.4) × SA1 × SB3 = 1133352.3
P22 = 500,000 * (1-0.5) * SA2 * SB2 = 293122.1
P23 = 200000 × (1-0) × SA2 × SB3 = 187727.3
P31 = 300,000 × (1-0.6) × SA3 × SB1 = 136049.4
P32 = 500000 × (1-0) × SA3 × SB2 = 577037
P33 = 200000 × (1-0) × SA3 × SB3 = 184722.2
P41 = 300,000 × (1-0.1) × SA4 × SB1 = 290000
P42 = 500,000 × (1-0) × SA4 × SB2 = 5466666.7
P43 = 200000 × (1-0) × SA4 × SB3 = 175000

  Then, the cost calculation unit 11 adds the calculated fixed cost, expected cost, and planned cost, respectively, and sets the added total value as the final cost predicted value of the project (step S10). Specifically, as shown below, a final confirmed cost total value K, an estimated cost total value M, and a planned cost total value P are obtained, and these total values are added to obtain a project final cost predicted value T.

Final cost total value K = ΣKAi or ΣKBj (10)
Total expected cost M = ΣMAi or ΣMBj (11)
Scheduled cost total value P = ΣPij (12)
Project final cost estimate T = K + M + P (13)

Specifically, in the project shown in FIG.
Final cost total value K = ΣKAi = ΣKBj = 16700000
Total expected cost M = ΣMAi = ΣMBj = 90000
Total scheduled cost P = ΣPij = P13 + P22 + P23 + P31 + P32 + P33
+ P41 + P42 + P43 = 2503767
Project final cost estimate T = K + M + P = 4263767

  The project cost prediction apparatus outputs the calculated project final cost prediction value together with the read project basic information to a display unit (not shown). In addition, when displaying, the value of the calculation process in the middle, such as an efficiency index, may also be displayed.

  As a result, the project cost predicting apparatus applies the cost efficiency of the completed task and the executing (completed part) task having similar attribute information with respect to the planned cost for the unstarted or executing (uncompleted part) task. The influence range of the unstarted or executing (uncompleted part) task given by the completed task and the executing (completed part) task can be limited to related tasks.

  Specifically, if an abnormality has occurred in task T12 (function 1, program development), the effects are task T13 (function 1, test), task T22 (function 2, program development), task T32 (function 3). , Program development), task T42 (function 4, program development), but there is no direct impact on task T23 (function 2, test), task T33 (function 3, test), task T43 (function 4, test). It doesn't reach.

  In step S3, when cost information is acquired from peripheral external systems, if a task is not assigned to the acquired file, a task ID can be separately assigned.

  FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing task ID input processing when cost information not assigned to a task is acquired. First, the cost information acquisition unit 5 acquires cost information from peripheral external systems (step S31), and if no task ID is assigned to the acquired cost information, the cost information is stored in task unassigned information storage. Store in the unit 7 (step S32).

  Next, the task assignment input unit 8 reads out task unassigned cost information that has not been assigned a task ID from the task unassigned information storage unit 7, receives assignment of a task ID from the outside, and receives the task unassigned A task ID is input to the cost information (step S33). Then, the cost information to which the task ID is input is stored in the cost information storage unit 6 (step S34).

  In practice, the division when each department related to a project manages the cost generated in its own department may not always match the system that manages the project cost. In this way, cost information that has not been assigned a task ID can be returned to the normal processing flow after assigning a task ID, thus avoiding a situation in which data in which the task is unclear from among the generated cost information is avoided. can do.

  As described above, in the present embodiment, the project cost prediction device predicts the planned costs of unstarted tasks and running (unfinished parts) tasks for each type that can be classified according to functional phase or work process. The cost efficiency of the completed task and the task being executed (completed part) is obtained, and the estimated cost efficiency is used for prediction. This makes it possible to limit the impact of unfinished tasks and running (uncompleted parts) tasks given by completed tasks and running (completed parts) tasks to related tasks, and accurately predict project final costs. Can be done.

  FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating a configuration example of an electronic computer that has a function as a project cost prediction apparatus according to the present embodiment and can execute the project cost prediction program according to the present embodiment.

  This electronic computer includes, for example, a control unit 101 including a CPU (corresponding to the cost information acquisition unit 5, the task-specific cost information generation unit 9, and the cost calculation unit 11) and a memory unit 102 (the project basic information storage unit 2, Task information storage unit 4, cost information storage unit 6, task unallocated information storage unit 7, task-specific cost information storage unit 10), display unit 103, input unit 104 (project basic information input unit 1, Task information input unit 3 and task allocation input unit 8), a CD-ROM drive unit 105, a disk unit 106, and an external I / F unit 107, each of which has a system bus A. Connected through.

  In FIG. 10, the control unit 101 executes the project cost prediction program. The memory unit 102 includes various memories such as RAM and ROM, and stores programs to be executed by the control unit 101, necessary data obtained in the course of processing, and the like. The display unit 103 is composed of a CRT, LCD (liquid crystal display panel), or the like, and displays various screens to the user of the electronic computer. The input unit 104 includes a keyboard, a mouse, and the like, and is used by a user of an electronic computer to input various information. The illustrated CD-ROM 200 stores a project cost prediction program describing the processing of the present embodiment.

  Here, an operation example of the electronic computer until the project cost prediction program becomes executable will be described. First, in the electronic computer configured as described above, a project cost prediction program is installed in the disk unit 106 from the CD-ROM 200 set in the CD-ROM drive unit 105. Then, the program read from the disk unit 106 is stored in the memory unit 102 when the electronic computer is activated or when the program is executed. In this state, the control unit 101 executes project cost prediction processing according to the program stored in the memory unit 102.

  In the present embodiment, the project cost prediction program is provided by the CD-ROM 200. However, the recording medium of this program is not limited to this, and depending on the computer constituting the system, For example, other recording media such as a floppy (registered trademark) disk and a DVD may be used. Moreover, it is good also as using the program provided by transmission media, such as an email and the internet.

  As described above, the project cost prediction apparatus according to the present invention is useful for project management, and is particularly suitable for project cost management.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Project basic information input part 2 Project basic information storage part 3 Task information input part 4 Task information storage part 5 Cost information acquisition part 6 Cost information storage part 7 Task unallocation information storage part 8 Task allocation input part 9 Cost information according to task Generation unit 10 Cost information storage unit by task 11 Cost calculation unit

Claims (7)

In a project cost prediction device that predicts the final cost of a project that can classify tasks in the functional phase or work process,
Task information storage means for storing task information including a project ID, task ID, task progress rate, task budget, task function phase type, and task work process type for each task;
A cost ID that classifies either the project ID, the task ID, the cost value, and a fixed cost that is a cost for which the cost value is fixed or an estimated cost that is not determined at the present time but is determined in the future; Cost information acquisition means for acquiring cost information including an external system for each generated cost,
Cost information storage means for storing the acquired cost information;
All the task information in which the same project ID is stored is read from the task information storage means, all the cost information in which the same project ID is stored is read from the cost information storage means, and the task of the task information for each task information Task-specific cost information that generates cost information for each task by adding a fixed cost cumulative value and an estimated cost cumulative value for each cost category that are stored in the cost information that includes the same task ID as the ID Generating means;
Task-specific cost information storage means for storing the task-specific cost information;
The task-specific cost information is read from the task-specific cost information storage means, and the final cost predicted value of the project is obtained by adding the determined cost cumulative value, the estimated cost cumulative value, and the predicted cost calculated using the progress rate and the budget. A cost calculation means for obtaining
A project cost prediction apparatus comprising: The cost calculation means includes
Read all the cost information for each task in which the same project ID is stored from the cost information storage means for each task,
For each functional phase type and work process type of the task, the accumulated fixed cost value, the estimated cost accumulated value stored in the task-specific cost information of each task, and the task budget multiplied by the progress rate are accumulated. Calculate the finalized cost by attribute value, estimated cost by attribute value, and estimated used cost by attribute value.
For each functional phase type and work process type of the task, obtain a value obtained by dividing the calculated estimated cost for each attribute value by the estimated cost for each attribute value by the estimated expected cost for each attribute value as the efficiency index for that type,
Processing to calculate the estimated cost of the incomplete part of the incomplete task by multiplying the budget of the incomplete part of the incomplete task by the efficiency index of the function phase type to which the task belongs and the efficiency index of the work process type to which the task belongs For all incomplete tasks,
Predicted cost obtained for all incomplete tasks to the value obtained by adding the fixed cost for each attribute value and the estimated cost for each attribute value for each type in either the functional phase type or work process type of the task The final cost estimate of the project is obtained by adding
The project cost prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein: further,
Task unassigned information storage means for storing cost information to which task IDs are not assigned;
A task assignment input means for accepting an input of a task ID from the outside and assigning a task ID to cost information to which no task ID is assigned;
With
The cost information acquisition unit stores the cost information in which the task ID is not allocated among the acquired cost information in the task unallocation information storage unit,
The task assignment input unit reads cost information with no task ID assigned from the task unassigned information storage unit, assigns a task ID to the read cost information, and sets the cost information with the task ID assigned to the cost Memorize in information storage means,
The project cost prediction apparatus according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that A project cost prediction method in a project cost prediction device for predicting a final cost of a project that can classify tasks in a functional phase or a work process,
The project cost prediction device is
Task information storage means for storing task information including a project ID, task ID, task progress rate, task budget, task function phase type, and task work process type for each task;
A cost ID that classifies either the project ID, the task ID, the cost value, and a fixed cost that is a cost for which the cost value is fixed or an estimated cost that is not determined at the present time but is determined in the future; Cost information storage means for storing cost information including each cost that has occurred,
For storing task-specific cost information in which a fixed cost cumulative value and an estimated cost cumulative value obtained by accumulating the cost value stored in the cost information having the same task ID as the task for each cost category are added to the task information. Cost information storage means for each task;
If you have
A cost information acquisition step of storing cost information acquired from an external system in the cost information storage means;
All the task information in which the same project ID is stored is read from the task information storage means, all the cost information in which the same project ID is stored is read from the cost information storage means, and the task of the task information for each task information Generates cost information for each task by adding a fixed cost accumulation value and an estimated cost accumulation value for each cost category that are stored in the cost information that includes the same task ID as the ID, and for each generated task A cost information generation step by task for storing cost information in the cost information storage means by task;
The task-specific cost information is read from the task-specific cost information storage means, and the final cost predicted value of the project is obtained by adding the determined cost cumulative value, the estimated cost cumulative value, and the predicted cost calculated using the progress rate and the budget. A cost calculation step for
A project cost prediction method characterized by including: In the cost calculation step,
Read all the cost information for each task in which the same project ID is stored from the cost information storage means for each task,
For each functional phase type and work process type of the task, the accumulated fixed cost value, the estimated cost accumulated value stored in the task-specific cost information of each task, and the task budget multiplied by the progress rate are accumulated. Calculate the finalized cost by attribute value, estimated cost by attribute value, and estimated used cost by attribute value.
For each functional phase type and work process type of the task, obtain a value obtained by dividing the calculated estimated cost for each attribute value by the estimated cost for each attribute value by the estimated expected cost for each attribute value as the efficiency index for that type,
Processing to calculate the estimated cost of the incomplete part of the incomplete task by multiplying the budget of the incomplete part of the incomplete task by the efficiency index of the function phase type to which the task belongs and the efficiency index of the work process type to which the task belongs For all incomplete tasks,
Predicted cost obtained for all incomplete tasks to the value obtained by adding the fixed cost for each attribute value and the estimated cost for each attribute value for each type in either the functional phase type or work process type of the task The final cost estimate of the project is obtained by adding
The project cost prediction method according to claim 4, wherein: The project cost prediction device further includes:
Task unassigned information storage means for storing cost information to which task IDs are not assigned;
With
In the cost information acquisition step,
If there is cost information with no task ID assigned to the acquired cost information,
Storing cost information with unassigned task ID in the task unassigned information storage means;
Reads cost information with no task ID assigned from the task unassigned information storage means, assigns a task ID to the read cost information, and stores the cost information assigned the task ID in the cost information storage means,
6. The project cost prediction method according to claim 4, wherein the project cost is predicted.   A project cost prediction program that causes a computer to execute the project cost prediction method according to claim 4, 5 or 6.

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