JP2011258079A - Calculation device, control method for calculation device, control program, and recording medium - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To simulate a system reserving and using a service provided at multiple service counters.SOLUTION: A reservation possibility rate calculation device 1 comprises: a reservation registration state data generation part 11 for obtaining, as an average arrival rate at a specific timing, the number of reservations per day calculated from the total number of reservations trying to use conference rooms on the specific date in an arbitrary specified timing within a reservation acceptance period; a reservation possibility rate calculating-data generation part 12 which obtains the number of conference rooms and an average service rate that is the number of conferences possibly to be held at one conference room on one day; and a reservation possibility rate calculation part 13 which substitutes the two parameters obtained by the reservation possibility rate calculating-data generation part 12 and the average arrival rate calculated by the reservation registration state data generation part 11 into the Erlang's loss formula and calculates a loss probability. Thus a system for reserving and using multiple conference rooms can be simulated.

Description

  The present invention relates to a computing device for simulating a system that reserves and uses services provided at a plurality of windows.

  Conventionally, attempts have been made to use various business simulations for business and the like. For example, the following Non-Patent Document 1 discloses a technique for calculating a probability that a conference room is blocked by simulation as a determination material for determining the number of conference rooms in an office. Specifically, in Non-Patent Document 1, the probability that a conference room is blocked is calculated from the use frequency of the conference room, the number of conference rooms, and the like based on the queuing theory.

  According to the technology of Non-Patent Document 1, it is possible to express numerically how much the number of meeting rooms should be and how much the meeting rooms are blocked. Objective judgment materials can be obtained.

  Note that the queuing theory is a theory that aims to analyze a congestion phenomenon of a system that behaves stochastically such that customers line up in order to receive services using a mathematical model. In the queue theory, a system including a window for receiving a service and a waiting room for a customer to wait in a period until the service is received at the window is assumed.

  In this system, when the number of people who can enter the waiting room is limited, customers who arrive when the counter and the waiting room are full cannot enter the waiting room or the waiting room, and return without receiving services. It will be. This is called call loss, and the proportion of customers who have lost their call is the call loss rate. A system in which call loss occurs is called a loss system.

  For example, in the case of using a conference room, if the call loss rate is 10%, an attempt to use the conference room 10 times results in a call loss on average once. In other words, when the call loss rate is 10%, it is calculated that the conference room can be used 9 to 10 times on average. That is, when the call loss rate is expressed as a percentage, the probability that the conference room can be used is expressed as (100−call loss rate)%.

Mitsuaki Shiraishi, Kazuo Sugiyama, Proposal of the method for calculating the number of conference rooms in the office, BULLETIN OF Japanese Society for the Science of Design Vol.49, No.1 2002

  However, the technique of Non-Patent Document 1 has a problem that reservation of a conference room is not considered. In a general office, a conference room is often reserved and used. Therefore, the technique according to Non-Patent Document 1 cannot perform a simulation according to an actual use mode of a conference room.

  Here, when the technique of Non-Patent Document 1 is to be modified so that reservation can be taken into account, for example, by subtracting the number of reserved conference rooms from the total number of conference rooms, It is conceivable to calculate the probability of blocking.

  However, in the calculation method that calculates the number of empty conference rooms by simulating the filling of empty conference rooms based on the reservation status of the conference rooms, the number of conference rooms may not be an integer. Calculations based on theory cannot be performed.

That is, in a system to which the queuing theory can be applied, the call loss rate (probability of not being able to use the service) is calculated using the Erlang loss formula expressed by the following formula (1). In Equation (1), P _n indicates a call loss rate when n customers are trying to receive services in the “system”, ρ indicates a service usage rate, and s indicates the number of windows providing services. . The usage rate ρ is expressed by (average arrival rate λ of customers who want to receive services) / (average service rate μ).

  In the case of conference room reservation, there is no line-up for reservation, so it is not possible to reserve a conference room when n = s, ρ is the conference room usage rate, and s is the conference It will be the number of rooms. When the value obtained by subtracting the number of reserved conference rooms from the total number of conference rooms is used as the number of conference rooms s, s may include a decimal.

  In the above formula (1), since s needs to be an integer, the call loss rate cannot be calculated in the above case, and such a system cannot be simulated. Note that this problem is not limited to conference room reservation, but is common to events that can be reserved and to which queuing theory can be applied.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and an object of the present invention is to provide a computing device and the like that can perform simulation of a system that reserves and uses services provided at a plurality of windows. .

  In order to solve the above problems, a computing device according to the present invention is a computing device for simulating a system that reserves and uses services provided at a plurality of windows, and can be arbitrarily set within a reservation acceptance period. An average arrival rate calculating means for setting the number of reservations per unit period calculated from the total number of reservations to receive the service in a specified period at a specified timing as an average arrival rate at the specified timing; Any two parameters of the average service rate, which is the number of cases where the service can be received at one window per unit period, and the call loss rate, which is the probability that the service of the specified period cannot be reserved at the specified timing Parameter acquisition means for acquiring the two parameters, the two parameters acquired by the parameter acquisition means, and the average arrival rate calculation The average arrival rate calculated by Dan is substituted into Erlang's loss equation, which is the relationship between the call loss rate, the number of contacts, the average arrival rate, and the average service rate, and the call loss rate, the number of contacts, and the average service. And a parameter calculating means for calculating a parameter that is not acquired by the parameter acquiring means.

  In addition, the computer device control method of the present invention is a computer device control method for simulating a system that reserves and uses services provided at a plurality of windows in order to solve the above problems. The average arrival rate with the number of reservations per unit period calculated from the total number of reservations to receive the service during a specified period at any specified timing within the reservation reception period as the average arrival rate at the specified timing Rate calculation step, number of the above-mentioned counters, average service rate which is the number of cases where the above-mentioned service can be received at one of the above-mentioned counters per unit period, and call loss rate which is the probability that the service of the specified period cannot be reserved at the specified timing Obtained in the parameter obtaining step for obtaining any two parameters and the parameter obtaining step described above. Substituting two parameters and the average arrival rate calculated in the above average arrival rate calculation step into Erlang's loss equation, which is a relational expression of the call loss rate, the number of windows, the average arrival rate, and the average service rate, A parameter calculation step of calculating a parameter not acquired in the parameter acquisition step among the call loss rate, the number of windows, and the average service rate.

  According to the above configuration, the total number of reservations to be serviced during a specified period at any specified timing within the reservation reception period, in other words, reservation reception of reservations to be serviced during a specified period The number of reservations per unit period is obtained from the cumulative number from the start to the specified timing. This number of reservations is taken as the average arrival rate at the specified timing.

  In this way, by using the cumulative number of reservations, it is possible to express numerically how much reservations occur during the specified period. That is, in the above configuration, the “average arrival rate of service users” in the queue theory is calculated using the cumulative number of reservations.

  In addition, according to the above configuration, any two parameters of the number of windows, the average service rate, and the call loss rate are acquired, and these two parameters and the average arrival rate calculated as described above are set to Erlang. Substitute into the loss equation.

  Erlang's loss equation is a relational expression that includes four parameters: number of windows, average arrival rate, average service rate, and call loss rate. According to the above configuration, the number of windows, average service rate, or call loss rate Can be calculated.

  Therefore, the user of the computing device can perform a simulation in the system, that is, a system that reserves and uses services provided at a plurality of windows. In other words, what value the call loss rate would be when the number of windows and average service rate were set, and what the average service rate would be when the number of windows and call loss rate were set It is possible to calculate the value of the number of windows when the average service rate and the call loss rate are set.

  Further, according to the above configuration, the influence of the reservation is not reflected on the number of windows. In other words, since the calculation for correcting the number of windows is not performed, the number of windows does not include a decimal, and the simulation can be performed reliably.

  The service is not particularly limited as long as it can apply Erlang's loss formula, that is, can apply queuing theory. In addition, the acquisition method of the two parameters is not particularly limited, and may be acquired, for example, by causing the user to input, or may be acquired by reading a parameter stored in advance in a storage device or the like.

  The parameter acquisition unit acquires the number of the counters and the average service rate, and the parameter calculation unit determines the number of the counters and the average service rate acquired by the parameter acquisition unit, and the average arrival rate. The call loss rate is calculated from the average arrival rate calculated by the calculation means, and the call loss rate is subtracted from 1 to calculate a reservation possibility rate that is a probability that the service of the specified period can be reserved at the specified timing. preferable.

  According to the above configuration, since the reservation possibility rate is calculated, the user of the calculation device can reserve the service for the specified period at the specified timing and confirm the probability that the service can be used during the specified period. it can.

  In addition, the service between the window groups can be used when the service can be used in the same designated period in the two window groups each including the plurality of windows, and is calculated by the parameter calculation unit for each window group. It is preferable that there is provided an inter-window group probability calculating means for calculating a probability that the service between the window groups can be reserved in the specified period by multiplying the reservation possibility ratios of the same specified period.

  According to the above configuration, since the probability that the service between the window groups can be reserved is calculated, the user of the calculation device recognizes at what rate the service between the window groups can be reserved and used during the specified period. Can do. And, in order to make the probability that the service between the window groups can be used more than the desired value, how many window windows should be secured in each window group, and what average service rate should be secured Can be confirmed.

  In addition, the above service is a service that allows a conference room to be used on a specified date, and the above average arrival rate calculation means calculates the total number of reservations that use a conference room on a specified date at any specified timing within the reservation reception period. The number of reservations per day calculated by dividing the number of cases by the total number of days included in the reservation reception period or the total number of days available for reservation included in the reservation reception period is an average arrival rate. The number of conference rooms input by the user of the device itself is acquired as the number of the counters, and the average service rate is acquired from a storage unit that stores the average service rate, and the parameter calculation means calculates the average arrival rate. Substituting the average arrival rate calculated by the means and the parameter acquired by the parameter acquisition means into the Erlang loss formula, the specified date at the specified timing It is preferable to calculate the loss probability is the probability that can not reserve a conference room.

  According to said structure, the input of the number of meeting rooms is received and the probability that a meeting room cannot be reserved on a designated day is calculated. Thereby, the user of the said calculation apparatus can judge how many meeting rooms can be used, and how many meeting rooms can be used based on a specific numerical value. And the user can also confirm how many conference rooms should be secured in order to realize the ease of taking a desired reservation.

  The computer may be realized by a computer. In this case, a control program for realizing the computer by the computer by operating the computer as each unit of the computer, and recording the program Such computer-readable recording media also fall within the scope of the present invention.

  According to the configuration of the present invention, the average arrival rate corresponding to the “arrival rate of service users” in the queue theory is calculated using the total number of reservations at the designated timing. Then, any two parameters are acquired from the number of windows, the average service rate, and the call loss rate, and these two parameters and the average arrival rate calculated as described above are substituted into Erlang's loss equation.

  Therefore, it is possible to calculate the number of windows, the average service rate, or the call loss rate, and thereby it is possible to perform a simulation in a system that reserves and uses services provided at a plurality of windows.

  Further, according to the above configuration, since the influence of the reservation is not reflected on the number of windows, the number of windows does not include a decimal, and the above simulation can be performed reliably.

1, showing an embodiment of the present invention, is a block diagram illustrating a configuration of a main part of a reservation possibility rate calculating apparatus. FIG. It is a figure explaining that reservation of a meeting room corresponds to a loss system model, and the figure (a) is an attempt to make a reservation when the meeting room is vacant when trying to make a reservation. Shows the situation when the conference room was not available. It is a figure which shows an example of the reservation registration status data which the said reservation possibility rate calculation apparatus stores. It is a figure which shows transition of the cumulative number of reservations of a conference room. It is the figure which shows the ease of taking the reservation by the length of the days until the day when you want to use the conference room, the figure (a) shows the reservation situation seven days ago, the figure (b) shows the reservation situation of the day Yes. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the average reservation registration number calculation process which the said reservation possibility rate calculation apparatus performs. It is a figure which shows an example of the data for reservation possibility ratio calculation which the said reservation possibility ratio calculation apparatus stores. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the reservation rate calculation process which the said reservation rate calculation apparatus performs. It is a flowchart which shows an example of the reservation possibility ratio calculation process between bases which the said reservation possibility ratio calculation apparatus performs. It is a figure which shows the example of a display of the reservation possibility rate according to a base at the time of introducing an electronic conference system in 40 rooms, and the reservation possibility rate between bases, The figure (a) shows the example of a display of the reservation possibility rate according to a base, FIG. 5B shows a display example of the inter-site reservation availability rate calculated using the location-specific reservation availability rate shown in FIG. It is a figure which shows the example of a display of the reservation possibility rate according to the base at the time of introducing an electronic conference system in 65 rooms, and the reservation possibility rate between bases, The figure (a) shows the example of a display of the reservation possibility rate according to a base, FIG. 7B shows a display example of the inter-site reservation possibility ratio calculated using the base-by-base reservation possibility ratio of FIG. It is a figure which shows distribution of the number of reservations of a conference room. It is a figure which shows distribution of meeting time.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to FIGS. 1 to 13.

[Outline of reservation rate calculation method]
In the case of introducing an electronic conference system to a company having a plurality of bases, the reservation rate calculation method according to the present invention is based on how much electronic conference system is installed at which base at what rate. A reservation possibility rate is calculated as an index indicating whether the electronic conference system can be used.

  Thus, a company that is considering the number of electronic conference systems to be introduced can determine how many electronic conference systems are installed at which location based on an objective numerical value such as a reservation possibility rate.

[About the electronic conference system]
The electronic conference system assigns a terminal device to each of the presenter and participant of the conference, displays an image displayed on the presenter's terminal device (referred to as the presenter terminal), and the terminal device of the participant (participant terminal and Is a system that performs a conference by synchronizing (interlocking) with an image displayed.

  According to this electronic conference system, a participant terminal and a presenter terminal can be arranged in one conference room to hold a conference, and the participant terminal and the presenter terminal can be placed in different conference rooms (for example, conferences at different bases). It is also possible to conduct a teleconference by placing each participant terminal and presenter terminal via a communication network.

  By introducing such an electronic conference system, it is possible to save labor by automating conference settings and the like, and it is also possible to realize paperless conferences. Furthermore, since it is not necessary to travel to another base for a conference, it is possible to reduce the time and cost required for the business trip.

  As described above, there are various merits in the introduction of the electronic conference system. However, since the introduction of the electronic conference system is expensive, it may be difficult to introduce the electronic conference system in all the conference rooms at each base. It is thought that there are many. For this reason, the reservation possibility ratio calculation method that can calculate the reservation possibility ratio according to how many electronic conference systems are installed in which base is useful.

[Application of queuing theory]
In the reservation rate calculation method, the reservation rate is calculated based on queue theory. Here, application of queuing theory in the above-described reservation rate calculation method will be described.

  When using an electronic conference system, it is assumed that a reservation is made for a conference room in which the electronic conference system is introduced. In other words, in order to use the electronic conference system, it is necessary to reserve the conference room in which the electronic conference system is introduced. For this reason, the availability rate of the electronic conference system is that of the conference room in which the electronic conference system is introduced. It can be read as the reservation rate.

  In other words, in the above reservation rate calculation method, in the queuing theory, the service is a service that uses a conference room, and the number of windows is the number of conference rooms in which the electronic conference system is installed. The probability (or call loss rate) is calculated.

  Here, in the case of reservation of a conference room, when there is no available conference room, there is no waiting for the conference room to be free. This will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 2 is a diagram for explaining that a conference room reservation corresponds to a loss system model. FIG. 2A shows a case where a conference room is vacant when a reservation is made, and FIG. It shows the situation when the conference room was not available when trying to make a reservation.

  As shown in Fig. 5 (a), a person who wants to hold a conference confirms the reservation status of the conference room, and if the conference room is available at the date and time he wants to use, the conference room is reserved at that date and time. It can be performed.

  On the other hand, as shown in FIG. 5B, if a person who wants to hold a conference confirms the reservation status of the conference room and the conference room is not available at the desired date and time, the conference cannot be held at that date and time. In addition, it is not realistic to wait for the cancellation of the conference room, so it is necessary to consider conducting a conference at another date and time.

  Thus, no waiting occurs in the case of conference room reservation. Therefore, when calculating the call loss rate of the conference room in which the electronic conference system is introduced, n in the above equation (1) is “s”. Also, ρ is the utilization rate of the conference room in which the electronic conference system is introduced, and s is the number of conference rooms in which the electronic conference system is introduced. In other words, in the above reservation rate calculation method, the mathematical formula used to calculate the call loss rate is as shown in the following mathematical formula (2).

  Although details will be described later, in the above reservation rate calculation method, as the usage rate ρ of the conference room where the electronic conference system is introduced, the cumulative number of reservations up to the date (specified timing) for which the reservation rate is calculated, The average number of registered registrations λ divided by the number of days in the reservation reception period (the total number of days included in the reservation reception period or the total number of days included in the reservation reception period) per day (one unit period) of the conference room Use the value divided by the available number of times μ. As a result, it is possible to calculate the call loss rate using the above formula (2).

  The call loss rate is the probability that reservation is not possible, and the reservation possibility rate is the probability that reservation is possible, so if the call loss rate and the reservation possibility rate are added, it becomes 1. Therefore, the reservation possibility rate can be calculated by (1−call loss rate).

  Moreover, in order to apply queuing theory, it is a requirement that the way of arrival of customers follows the Poisson distribution. That is, in the case of reservation of a conference room in which an electronic conference system is introduced, it is necessary to follow the Poisson distribution as to how the conference room reservation occurs. Although details will be described later, the inventors of the present invention have confirmed that the method of generating a conference room reservation follows a Poisson distribution.

[Configuration of reservation rate calculation device]
Next, a configuration of a reservation possibility ratio calculation apparatus suitable for executing the reservation possibility ratio calculation method will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a main configuration of a reservation possibility rate calculation device (calculation device) 1.

  As shown in the figure, the controller 2 and the display device 3 are connected to the reservation rate calculation device 1. The controller device 2 is a device that receives an input operation of the user, generates an operation signal corresponding to the received input operation, and transmits the generated operation signal to the reservation possibility rate calculation device 1. That is, the user can perform an input operation on the controller device 2 to control the operation of the reservation possibility rate calculating device 1 or input parameters necessary for calculating the reservation possibility rate. The operation device 2 may be a keyboard, a mouse, a tablet, or the like, for example.

  The display device 3 is a device that displays an image according to the control of the reservation possibility rate calculation device 1. The display device 3 displays, for example, a screen for allowing the user to input parameters necessary for calculating the reservation possibility rate, the reservation possibility rate calculated by the reservation possibility rate calculation device 1, and the like. The display device 3 may be, for example, a liquid crystal display device or an organic EL (Electro Luminescence) display device.

  Note that a device having the function of the operation device 2 and the function of the display device 3 (for example, a display device having a touch panel function) may be connected to the reservation rate calculation device 1. In the illustrated example, the controller device 2 and the display device 3 are separate devices from the reservation rate calculation device 1, but the reservation factor calculation device 1 is at least of the operation device 2 and the display device 3. Either of them may be provided.

  The reservable rate calculating device 1 includes a control unit 10 that controls the overall operation of the reservable rate calculating device 1 and a storage unit that stores various data used by the reservable rate calculating device 1 so that the control unit 10 can read the data. 20 is provided.

  The control unit 10 includes a reservation registration status data generation unit (average arrival rate calculation unit) 11, a reservation possibility rate calculation data generation unit (parameter acquisition unit) 12, a reservation possibility rate calculation unit (parameter calculation unit, calculation of probability between window groups). Means) 13 and a display control unit 14.

  The reservation registration status data generation unit 11 generates reservation registration status data indicating the registration status of the reservation and stores it in the storage unit 20. Specifically, the reservation registration status data generation unit 11 acquires the date on which the reservation is made and the number of reservations on that day by causing the user to input, and calculates a cumulative value of the number of reservations on each date. Further, the reservation registration status data generation unit 11 calculates the average number of registrations by dividing the calculated cumulative value by the number of days in the reservation reception period, and generates reservation registration status data in which the calculated value is registered. This average number of registered reservations corresponds to the average arrival rate λ in Erlang's loss formula.

  The reservable rate calculation data generation unit 12 generates reservable rate calculation data including various parameters necessary for calculating the reservable rate and stores the data in the storage unit 20. Specifically, the reservation possibility rate calculation data generation unit 12 acquires necessary parameters from the reservation registration status data generated by the reservation registration status data generation unit 11 and allows the user to input other necessary parameters. Acquire and use the acquired parameters to generate data for calculating the reservation possibility rate.

  The reservable rate calculation unit 13 calculates a reservable rate. Specifically, the reservable rate calculation unit 13 is necessary for calculating the reservable rate with reference to the reservable rate calculation data generated by the reservable rate calculation data generation unit 12 and stored in the storage unit 20. A parameter is specified, and the call loss rate is calculated by substituting the specified parameter into the above equation (2). Then, a reservation possibility rate is calculated from the calculated call loss rate.

  The display control unit 14 causes the display device 3 to display an image in accordance with an instruction from the reservation registration status data generation unit 11, the reservation possibility rate calculation data generation unit 12, or the reservation possibility rate calculation unit 13.

  The storage unit 20 stores reservation registration status data 21 generated by the reservation registration status data generation unit 11 and reservation possible rate calculation data 22 generated by the reservation possible rate calculation data generation unit 12. Details of these data will be described later.

[About reservation registration status data]
The reservation registration status data 21 is data indicating how a conference room is reserved, and may be data as shown in FIG. 3, for example. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of the reservation registration status data 21.

  The reservation registration status data 21 in FIG. 3 is data in which a reservation date, the number of reservations on the reservation date, the cumulative number of reservations up to the reservation date, and the average number of reservations per day are associated with each other. In the figure, for the sake of simplicity, the number of reservations for 7 days is shown. However, any number may be used as long as it includes the cumulative number at the designated timing for which the reservation possibility rate is calculated. Moreover, although only the number of reservations of one base is shown in the figure, the storage unit 20 stores similar data for each base.

  The numbers of reservations shown in the figure are reservations for using the conference room on the same day (0th). In other words, the number of reservations from “125” which is the number of reservations 7 days ago to “488” which is the number of reservations on the 0th day (the day of reservation, the designated date specified in the reservation) uses the conference room on the 0th. The number of reservations to be made.

  Further, in the example of FIG. 3, in addition to the above data, the ratio (K%) of the number of reservations on the reservation date to the total number of reservations and the ratio of the total number of reservations up to the reservation date to the total number of reservations (R% ) And the average meeting time are associated with each other. These data may be omitted because they are not used for calculating the reservation possibility rate.

  Here, the transition of the cumulative number of reservations will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the transition of the cumulative number of reservations. In the figure, the horizontal axis is the time axis, and the vertical axis is the number of reservations. A bar graph represents the number of reservations, and a line graph represents the cumulative number of reservations. Here, it is assumed that reservations have been accepted for 6 months, but the number of reservations before 61 days is omitted in view of the ease of viewing the graph.

  As shown in the figure, the number of reservations has remained almost constant until about 10 days before the day of use (day 0), but since then it has increased rapidly, especially since about 3 days before the day of use. The growth of is large. The cumulative number of reservations also follows the trend of the number of reservations, and the slope of the graph increases about 10 days ago, and the slope further increases from about 3 days ago.

  This suggests that the reservation possibility rate greatly decreases immediately before the date of use and on the current day (designated date). For example, the cumulative number of reservations seven days ago is 1392, but the cumulative number of reservations on that day is 2959, which is more than twice that number. For this reason, when the number of conference rooms that can be used is limited, the probability that the conference room can be used for the same day reservation will be significantly lower than the case where the reservation is made seven days ago.

  In this way, the ease with which reservations can be made varies greatly depending on the number of days until the day of use. This will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing the ease of making a reservation depending on the number of days until the day that the user wants to use. FIG. 5A shows the reservation status seven days ago, and FIG. 5B shows the reservation status of the day. ing. In the figure, “*” indicates that a reservation is made during that time period.

  FIG. 4A shows the reservation status of conference rooms after November 10 as of November 3. As shown in FIG. 4, since the cumulative number of reservations is not so much seven days ago, there is a high possibility that the conference room is empty as shown in FIG. 5 (a).

  On the other hand, FIG. 5B shows the reservation status of the conference rooms after November 10 as of November 10. As shown in FIG. 4, the cumulative number of reservations is more than doubled on the current day compared to 7 days ago, and it is unlikely that the conference room is empty as shown in FIG. 5 (b).

[About the average number of registered registrations]
Next, an average reservation registration number calculation process in which the reservation registration status data generation unit 11 calculates the average reservation registration number included in the reservation registration status data 21 will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 6 is a flowchart illustrating an example of an average reservation registration number calculation process.

  First, the reservation registration status data generation unit 11 acquires the number of reservations for each day from the date when reservation acceptance is started to the present (S1). The number of reservations may be acquired, for example, by displaying a table in which the “number” column of the reservation registration status data 21 shown in FIG. 3 is blank on the display device 3 and allowing the user to fill in this blank.

  Next, the reservation registration status data generating unit 11 calculates the cumulative number of reservations for each day by integrating the number of reservations acquired in S1 (S2). This calculated value corresponds to the numerical value in the “cumulative” column of FIG.

  Then, the reservation registration status data generation unit 11 divides the cumulative number of reservations calculated in S2 by the number of days of the reservation reception period (the number of days including the day from the day when the reservation reception is started to the day of reservation). The number of registrations is calculated (S3). This calculated value corresponds to the numerical value in the “daily average” column of FIG.

  Note that the number of days in the reservation reception period may be the number of days that can be reserved (the number of days excluding the days in which no reservation is made (holidays, etc.) from the days included in the period). The number of days of the reservation reception period may not be strict as long as the number of reservations per day can be calculated. For example, in the example of FIG. The number of registrations is calculated.

  Finally, the reservation registration status data generation unit 11 stores the reservation registration status data 21 reflecting the calculated average reservation registration number in the storage unit 20, and notifies the reservation possibility rate calculation data generation unit 12 to that effect. This completes the average reservation registration number calculation process. The reservation possibility ratio calculation data generation unit 12 that has received this notification determines that the reservation possibility ratio can be calculated.

[Example of data for calculating the reservation rate]
Next, the reservation rate calculation data 22 will be described with a specific example. FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of the reservation rate calculation data 22. Reservable rate calculation data 22 in FIG. 7 is data in which establishments, the number of conference rooms, the average number of registered reservations, the number of conference rooms scheduled to be introduced, the number of available times, and the rate of reservations are associated with each other. is there. In addition, in the illustrated reservation availability rate calculation data 22, in addition to the above data, the number of meetings and the average meeting time are associated.

  The office indicates a base where the electronic conference system is introduced. In the illustrated example, the head office and the bases a to e are included. The arrangement order of the offices is not particularly limited, but it is preferable to arrange them in the order based on the necessity of increasing the reservation possibility rate.

  For example, you may arrange | position each base ae in order of distance (a linear distance, the distance of the east-west direction, etc.) with a head office. This is because it is considered that a base farther away from the head office has a higher cost (such as travel expenses for business trips) required for a meeting with the head office, and it is desirable to increase the reservation rate for such a base.

  The number of conference rooms indicates the total number of conference rooms in which the electronic conference system at each base can be introduced. That is, the number of scheduled conference rooms cannot be set to a value exceeding the number of conference rooms. The number of conference rooms is not used for calculating the reservation rate, and can be omitted. However, it is preferable to include the number of conference rooms in the reservation rate calculation data 22 to indicate the upper limit of the number of conference rooms scheduled to be introduced.

  The average number of reservation registrations is the average number of reservation registrations on the day (designated timing) for which the reservation availability rate is calculated. In the example shown in the figure, the average at the four designated timings on the day, 1 day ago, 7 days ago, and 14 days ago The number of reservation registrations is included. The value of the average reservation registration number can be specified from the reservation registration status data 21. The average number of reservation registrations is represented by “λ” because it corresponds to the average arrival rate in the Erlang loss formula.

  The number of conference rooms scheduled to be introduced indicates the number of conference rooms scheduled to be introduced at each base. This numerical value can be input by the user, and the reservation possibility rate corresponding to the numerical value input by the user is calculated. The number of conference rooms scheduled for introduction corresponds to “s” in Expression (2).

  The number of available times indicates the number of times that the electronic conference system can be used in one conference room per day at each site. The number of available times is calculated by dividing the available time of the conference room in one day by the average meeting time at the base. Note that the available number of times may be a value calculated or set in advance. This eliminates the need for the user to input the available number of times and the average meeting time. The number of usable times corresponds to the average service rate in Erlang's loss formula, and is represented by “μ”.

  The reservation possibility rate is a numerical value calculated at each designated timing for each base by substituting the above parameters (λ, s, and μ) into the formula (2). That is, the reservation possibility rate is calculated when the parameters of λ, s, and μ are determined.

  The number of meetings indicates the number of meetings per month at each site. The number of meetings is not a parameter necessary for calculating the reservation possibility rate. However, it is preferable to introduce an electronic conference system preferentially at a base where the number of conferences is large. Therefore, as a material for determining how many electronic conference systems should be installed at which bases, the number of conferences should be given to the user together with the reservation possibility rate. It is preferable to present.

  The average meeting time is an average value of the meeting time required for one meeting at each base. As described above, the average meeting time is a parameter used for calculating the usable number of times μ.

[Reservable rate calculation processing]
Next, the reservation rate calculation process will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing an example of the reservation rate calculation process. In the reservation possibility ratio calculation process of FIG. 8, the reservation possibility ratio calculation data generation unit 12 generates the reservation possibility ratio calculation data 22 and uses the generated reservation possibility ratio calculation data 22 to make a reservation possibility ratio calculation unit 13. Calculates the reservation availability rate.

  First, the reservable rate calculation data generation unit 12 specifies a date (designated timing) for which a reservable rate is to be calculated (S10). Here, it is assumed that “current day”, “one day ago”, “7 days ago”, and “14 days ago” are designated days. The designated date may be determined in advance or may be input by the user.

  Subsequently, the reservation rate calculation data generation unit 12 acquires the average reservation registration number λ at each specified timing specified in S1 from the reservation registration status data 21 (S11), and the acquired number of reservation reservation rate calculation data 22 is registered.

  Further, the reservation rate calculation data generation unit 12 calculates the available number of times μ of each base (S12), and registers the calculated number of times in the reservation rate calculation data 22. Specifically, the data generation unit 12 for calculating the reservable rate calculates a value obtained by dividing the daily meeting time by the average meeting time at the base as the average usable number of times at the base.

  For example, the average meeting time is displayed by causing the display device 3 to display a table in which the “average meeting time” column of the reservation rate calculation data 22 as shown in FIG. You may get it. In addition, any time can be used as long as the conference time is 24 hours or less, but here, it is assumed that the conference time per day at each base is 480 minutes (8 hours). In addition, the meeting time at each base may be different.

  Subsequently, the reservation possibility rate calculation data generation unit 12 specifies the number of conference rooms s (S13). The reservation rate calculation data generation unit 12 displays a table in which the “number of scheduled conference rooms” column of the reservation rate calculation data 22 as shown in FIG. 7 is displayed on the display device 3, for example. The number of conference rooms s may be specified by causing the user to fill in.

  With the above processing, the reservation possibility ratio calculation data 22 including all parameters necessary for calculating the reservation possibility ratio is generated. Therefore, the reservation possibility rate calculation data generation unit 12 stores the generated reservation possibility rate calculation data 22 in the storage unit 20 after the processing of S13, and calculates the reservation possibility rate in the reservation possibility rate calculation unit 13. To instruct.

  The reservable rate calculating unit 13 that has received the above instruction first calculates the utilization rate ρ with reference to the reservable rate calculating data 22 (S14). Specifically, the reservation possibility rate calculation unit 13 calculates a value obtained by dividing the average reservation registration number λ by the available number of times μ as the utilization rate ρ. As a result, ρ and s, which are parameters to be substituted into the mathematical formula (2), are prepared, and the reservation possibility ratio calculation unit 13 proceeds to calculation of the reservation possibility ratio.

  That is, the reservation possibility rate calculation unit 13 first calculates a call loss rate (S15). Specifically, the reservable rate calculating unit 13 calculates the number of meeting rooms s specified in S13 and registered in the reservable rate calculating data 22 and the utilization rate ρ calculated in S14 in Equation (2). By substituting, the call loss rate P is calculated. Then, the reservable rate calculating unit 13 calculates a value (1-P) obtained by subtracting the call loss rate P from 1 as a reservable rate (S16).

  Thereafter, the reservation possibility rate calculation unit 13 confirms whether or not to finish the calculation of the reservation possibility rate (S17). Here, if there is a designated timing or base for which the reservation possibility rate has not been calculated (NO in S17), the process returns to S15, and the reservation possibility calculation unit 13 determines the reservation possibility rate for the designated timing or base. Is calculated.

  On the other hand, if the reservation possibility ratios at all designated timings have been calculated for all the bases (YES in S17), the reservation possibility ratio calculation unit 13 instructs the display control unit 14 to calculate each reservation possibility ratio. Then, it is displayed on the display device 3 (S18).

  The display of the reservation possibility rate is not limited as long as the user can recognize the reservation possibility rate of each base at each designated timing, but the user can easily recognize a base whose reservation possibility ratio is lower than a certain level. It is desirable to be a thing.

  For example, a threshold value of a reservation possibility rate may be determined in advance, and a reservation possibility rate equal to or lower than the threshold value may be highlighted (displayed in a color different from other reservation possibility rates). Further, for example, the reservation possibility ratios of the respective bases may be displayed in the order of ascending order or descending order of the reservation possibility ratios. As a result, the user can easily recognize the bases with a low reservation rate, and the number of electronic conference systems installed at each base can be increased by taking measures such as increasing the number of electronic conference systems installed at such bases. It becomes easy to optimize.

  7 includes the number of conferences at each site, so the number of call losses is obtained from the number of conferences, and the reservation rate at each site is calculated in the order of the number of call losses. It may be displayed. The call loss number is a value calculated by multiplying the number of conferences by the call loss rate, and indicates the number of times reservations cannot be made.

  In other words, a large number of call losses means that there are many people who cannot make a reservation, so it can be said that it is necessary to increase the number of introductions as the number of call loss numbers increases. Therefore, by displaying the reservation possibility rate of each site in the order of the number of call loss, the user can recognize the site where the number of introductions should be increased.

[Inter-base reservation rate calculation process]
As described above, the reservable rate calculating apparatus 1 can calculate the reservable rate of each base. In addition, the reservation rate calculation device 1 can also calculate a reservation possibility rate between bases, that is, a reservation possibility rate of a conference between bases performed by connecting an electronic conference system of a base and another base via a network.

  In addition, since the bases each include a plurality of conference rooms, the reservation availability rate between the bases is the same in two window groups each including a plurality of service providing windows (windows that provide services that use the conference rooms). It can be expressed as a reservation possibility rate of the inter-window group service, which is a service that can be used when the service is available during a specified period.

  Here, the inter-base reservation possibility rate calculation process will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 9 is a flowchart illustrating an example of the inter-site reservation possibility rate calculation process. The inter-site reservation possibility rate calculation process is performed after the calculation of the reservation possibility ratio of each base is completed by the process shown in FIG. 8, for example.

  First, the reservable rate calculation unit 13 specifies a reservable rate that is a target of the inter-base reservation rate calculation process for each base (S20). For example, when calculating the inter-site reservation possibility rate seven days before, the reservation possibility ratio calculation data 22 is referred to, and the reservation possibility ratio of each base seven days before is specified.

  Next, the reservation possibility ratio calculation unit 13 calculates a reservation possibility ratio between bases (a reservation possibility ratio between window groups) using the reservation possibility ratio specified in S20 (S21). Specifically, the reservable rate calculation unit 13 calculates a value obtained by multiplying the reservable rates of two bases that are targets of calculation of the reservable rate between the bases as a reservable rate between the bases. The reservation possibility rate calculation unit 13 performs this process for all combinations of bases.

  Subsequently, the reservation possibility rate calculation unit 13 calculates the number of call losses (S22). Specifically, the reservation possibility rate calculation unit 13 calculates a value obtained by multiplying the number of conferences between the bases by the call loss rate between the bases as the call loss number.

  Note that the number of conferences between the sites is not particularly limited as long as it relatively indicates the number of conferences at each site. For example, the number of conferences of the two sites read from the reservation rate calculation data 22 is not limited. Of the average number of meetings (see FIG. 7), the value with the smaller number may be applied. Further, the call loss rate at each site is calculated by subtracting the reservation possibility rate between the sites (calculated in S21) from 1.

  Finally, the reservation possibility ratio calculation unit 13 instructs the display control unit 14 to display the reservation possibility ratio between the bases calculated in S21 on the display device 3 in descending order of the call loss number calculated in S22 (S23). ).

  As described above, the reservation possibility ratio calculation unit 13 calculates and displays the reservation possibility ratio between the bases by performing the inter-base reservation possibility ratio calculation processing. This makes it easy for the user to determine the number of electronic conference systems to be introduced at each site, taking into account the ease of making conference room reservations between sites.

[About the number of electronic conference systems installed at each site]
The method for determining the number of electronic conference systems to be introduced at each base is not particularly limited, but it is preferable to apply a determination method that can be preferentially distributed to the bases that are highly required to introduce the electronic conference system. For example, the following method may be applied.

  That is, the ratio of the number of guest business trip meetings (the number of business trip meetings for each host site) to the total number of business trip conferences that were carried out by making a business trip to a host site that is another site when a site was a guest site. The base ratio is calculated so that all of the bases that have made a business trip to participate in the business trip meeting become guest bases. This site-specific ratio indicates to which base a business trip is frequent (or few) from the base, and may be specified using data indicating the use status of the conference room before the electronic conference system is introduced.

  Next, in accordance with the ratio for each base, the number of distribution introductions for each base for distributing the predetermined number of electronic conference systems to be introduced to all the bases to each base is determined. When determining the number of distribution introductions, priority is given to the base ratio of bases where the total number of guest business trip meetings is large among the base ratios calculated for each guest base.

  According to the above method, the distribution introduction number is calculated in consideration of the business trip meeting, and when calculating the distribution introduction number to each of the bases, priority is given to the ratio of bases having a large total number of guest business trip meetings.

  Here, at a base where a business traveler has been sent out for a conference, an electronic conference system corresponding to the number of conferences (the number of guest business trip conferences) is required to realize the conference without a business trip. In other words, it can be determined that a base with a larger number of guest business meetings has a higher need to introduce an electronic conference system when a business trip is lost.

  For this reason, in the above configuration, when calculating the number of distribution introductions, priority is given to the ratio of bases where the total number of guest business trip meetings is large, which makes it highly necessary to introduce the electronic conference system. It can be preferentially allocated to the bases.

  Then, how much reservation can be made by such distribution is calculated by the reservation rate calculation device 1, and the number of introductions may be adjusted so that a desired reservation rate can be obtained. Accordingly, it is possible to determine the optimum introduction number and distribution that can realize a desired reservation possibility rate while preferentially allocating to a base that is highly required to introduce the electronic conference system.

[Method of calculating the number of distributions based on the ratio by location]
As a method for calculating the number of distribution introductions from the ratio by site, there are the “reduction method” and the “stacking method”.

  In the reduction method, first, an upper limit value of the number of introductions for each base is set as an initial value for the number of provisional introductions for each base, and the order of the bases is determined in ascending order of the total number of guest business trip meetings. Next, the reduction standard bases are determined in the order of the determined bases, and a value obtained by multiplying the ratio by base of the bases as the determined reduction reference bases by a predetermined number of units is subtracted from the provisional introduction number, and the result is obtained. Set as the number of new provisional introductions for each site.

  Subsequently, the total number of provisional introductions, which is the total number of provisional introductions for each base, is compared with the total number of introductions, and until the total provisional introduction number becomes equal to or less than the total number of introductions, the standard base decision and the provisional introduction number Repeat the calculation process. Then, the provisional introduction number when the total provisional introduction number becomes equal to or less than the total introduction number in the comparison is determined as the distribution introduction number.

  According to the above reduction method, it is possible to determine the number of distribution introductions according to the ratio for each site in consideration of both the number of introductions to the entire plurality of sites and the number of introductions for each site.

  More specifically, according to the reduction method, the reduction reference bases are determined in ascending order of the total number of guest business trip meetings, that is, in order of bases having the smallest number of business trip meetings. This is because it can be determined that the necessity of the electronic conference system is lower as the base is concerned. For this reason, the base where the need for the electronic conference system is low increases the reduction range of the provisional introduction number from the upper limit value of the introduction number.

  In other words, in the reduction method, the reduction range can be reduced as the base is more highly required to introduce the electronic conference system. As a result, it is possible to preferentially introduce a base where the necessity of an electronic conference system is high.

  On the other hand, in the accumulation method, first, the lower limit value of the number of introductions for each base is set as the initial value of the provisional introduction number for each base, and the order of the bases is determined in descending order of the total number of guest business trip meetings. Next, an addition reference base is determined in the order of the determined bases, and a value obtained by multiplying the ratio by base of the base as the determined addition reference base by a predetermined unit number is added to the provisional introduction number. The result is set as a new provisional introduction number for each base.

  Then, the total number of provisional introductions, which is the total number of provisional introductions for each base, is compared with the total number of introductions, and until the total provisional introduction number becomes equal to or greater than the total number of introductions, the base site is determined and the provisional introduction number is calculated. This process is repeated, and the provisional introduction number when the total provisional introduction number is equal to or greater than the total introduction number is determined as the distribution introduction number.

  Also by the accumulation method, it is possible to determine the number of distribution introductions according to the ratio for each base in consideration of both the number of introductions at a plurality of bases and the number of introductions at each base.

  That is, according to the accumulation method, the addition reference bases are determined in the order of the largest number of guest business trip meetings, that is, in the order of bases having the largest number of business trips. This is because it can be determined that the more the number of business trips, the higher the necessity of the electronic conference system.

  For this reason, according to the stacking method, the higher the need for an electronic conference system, the larger the range of addition of the provisional introduction number to the lower limit of the number of introductions. Priority introduction to the base becomes possible. The details of the method for determining the number of electronic conference systems to be introduced at each site as described above are described in the specification of Japanese Patent Application No. 2010-133306.

[Display example of reservation possibility rate]
The reservation possibility rate for each base and the reservation possibility ratio between bases may be displayed as shown in FIG. 10 or FIG. 11, for example. FIG. 10 and FIG. 11 are diagrams showing display examples of the reservation possibility rate for each site and the reservation possibility rate between sites. In the display examples of FIGS. 10 and 11, the number of lost calls is not considered.

  FIG. 10A shows a display example of the reservation rate by base when the electronic conference system is installed in 40 rooms. In FIG. 10 (a), it is assumed that the electronic conference system will be installed in a total of 40 rooms, including 8 rooms at the head office and 5 rooms, 5 rooms, 7 rooms, 7 rooms, and 8 rooms at bases a to e. Yes.

  In the display example in the figure, the reservation availability rates of the head office and the bases a to e on the current day, 1 day ago, 7 days ago, and 14 days ago are displayed in association with the establishment name and the number of introductions of each base. Further, in the display example of the figure, the reservation possibility rate of 70% or less is highlighted and displayed so as to be distinguishable from the reservation possibility rate exceeding 70%, which makes it easy for the user to make a reservation difficult to make a reservation. It is made to recognize.

  FIG. 7B shows a display example of the inter-base reservation possibility rate calculated using the base-by-base reservation possibility rate shown in FIG. The designated timing for obtaining the inter-base reservation possibility rate is the same day.

  As described above, the inter-site reservation possibility rate is calculated by multiplying the reservation possibility rates of the respective bases, and therefore has a lower probability than the reservation possibility rate of each base. In the illustrated example, the average value of the reservation possibility rate is 57.5%.

  Thus, since the inter-site reservation possibility rate is lower than the reservation possibility rate of each base, the threshold for highlight display may be smaller than the threshold for displaying by base. In the example shown in the figure, it is assumed that the threshold used for determining whether to highlight the inter-site reservation possibility rate is 50%.

  In other words, in the example shown in the figure, the reservation possibility rate of 50% or less is highlighted so as to be distinguishable from the reservation possibility rate exceeding 50%. In the figure, 12 of the calculated 30 reservable rates are highlighted, and it is possible to recognize at a glance that the reservable rate between bases is generally low.

  It should be noted that the level of reservation availability that is desired to be secured varies depending on the user, so the above thresholds (thresholds for determining whether to display the reservation availability rate for each site or between sites) are as follows: It is preferable that the user can arbitrarily set.

  On the other hand, FIG. 11 shows a display example when the number of introduced electronic conference systems is 65 in order to improve the reservation possibility rate. The figure (a) shows a display example of the reservation possibility ratio by base when the 65 rooms are introduced, and the figure (b) shows the inter-site reservation possibility ratio calculated using the reservation possibility ratio by base of the figure (a). A display example is shown.

  In the display example of FIG. 11A, the reservation possibility rate of each base increases due to the increase in the number of introductions, and the reservation possibility rate that is the target of highlight display disappears. Also, in the display example of FIG. 5B, the average value of the reservation possibility rate is improved to 91.6%, and the reservation possibility rate that is the target of the highlight display disappears. That is, when the electronic conference system is installed in 65 rooms, it can be understood that a sufficient reservation possibility rate can be secured not only for conferences by site but also for conferences between sites.

[Application of queuing theory to conference room reservation]
In order to apply queuing theory, more specifically, in order to find the solution to Erlang's loss equation (Equation (1) or (2)), the arrival of the customer at the window (conference room reservation occurrence timing) It is necessary to follow a Poisson distribution. The inventors of the present invention have confirmed that the occurrence timing of the conference room reservation follows the Poisson distribution by actually checking the occurrence timing of the conference room reservation.

  The result is shown in FIG. FIG. 12 is a diagram showing the distribution of the number of reservations in the conference room. As shown in the figure, the distribution of the number of conference room reservations generated per day is examined for 72828 conference room reservations. The results of the investigation are graphed with the number of reservations per day as the horizontal axis and the ratio of the number of reservations to the total number of reservations as the vertical axis (described as “component ratio” in the figure).

  The line graph of the composition ratio has substantially the same shape as the theoretical value graph. In addition, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is performed at a significance level of 5%, and it is confirmed that the composition ratio is Poisson distribution. That is, the result that the meeting room reservation generation timing follows the Poisson distribution is obtained.

  Conventionally, in order to apply the queuing theory, it is necessary that the “service time” (corresponding to the conference time) has an exponential distribution (see, for example, Non-Patent Document 1). At present, it is known that the queuing theory can be applied (determining Erlang's loss equation) regardless of the distribution of the “service time”. Confirms that the meeting time has an exponential distribution feature.

  The result is shown in FIG. FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating a distribution of conference times. In the figure, the frequency of meetings is classified into time ranges in increments of 2 hours from 0 to 24 hours, and the ratio of the frequency of meetings classified in each time range to the total frequency of meetings is held for that time range. It is graphed as the frequency. In FIG. 13, a line graph showing an Erlang distribution, a normal distribution, a hypergeometric distribution, and a binomial distribution is also shown for comparison. From this figure, it can be seen that the conference time has a characteristic of exponential distribution.

[Application examples other than conference room reservation]
In the above embodiment, an example in which the reservation possibility rate in the reservation of the conference room is calculated has been shown. However, the reservation rate calculation device 1 calculates the reservation possibility rate when reservation is possible and there is no vacancy. Any event may be used as long as no waiting occurs, and the reservation is not limited to a conference room.

  For example, reservations for tickets for concerts, movies, planes, trains, etc., and reservations for business hotels and parking lots are not expected to occur when there is no available space. The probability can be calculated.

  Moreover, the reservation possibility rate calculating device 1 can be used for marketing. For example, it may be used for a simulation of reservation sales. In other words, according to the reservation rate calculation device 1, the contract rate (the rate at which the product can be purchased) can be calculated as the reservation rate (or call loss rate) from the demand for the product, so that the desired contract rate is obtained. It is possible to set the number of products that can be produced and the number of contact points for product provision. This makes it possible to cause a call loss strategically.

  In the above embodiment, the reservation possibility rate calculating apparatus 1 calculates the reservation possibility rate from the call loss rate. However, only the call loss rate may be calculated and presented.

  In other words, the reservation rate calculation device 1 is a device that calculates at least one of a probability that a service provided at a predetermined number of windows can be used during a specified period and a probability that it cannot be used during the specified period. The value obtained by dividing the average number of reservations in the period calculated from the cumulative number of reservations to be received from the start of the reservation up to the period, divided by the number of cases where the service can be received at one window in the period Is calculated as the usage rate of the service in the period, and the probability is calculated by substituting the number of the counters and the usage rate calculated by the usage rate calculating means into Erlang's loss equation.

[Modification]
In the above-described embodiment, an example is shown in which a reservation possibility rate is calculated by designating a day. However, a period for which a reservation possibility rate is calculated can be arbitrarily set. For example, the reservation possibility rate can be calculated by specifying a specific time zone of the day such as in the morning or afternoon, or the reservation possibility rate can be specified by specifying a period including a plurality of days such as one week. It can also be calculated. That is, the reservation possibility rate calculating apparatus 1 can calculate the reservation possibility rate in an arbitrary designated period.

  Further, in the above-described embodiment, an example in which the call loss rate and the reservation possibility rate are calculated from the average arrival rate (average number of reservation registrations), the number of windows (the number of conference rooms scheduled to be introduced), and the average service rate (usable number of times) is described. However, the reservation possibility rate calculating device 1 can also calculate the number of windows or the average service rate.

  That is, when the reservation rate calculation device 1 calculates the number of windows, the reservation rate calculation data generation unit 12 acquires the average service rate and call loss rate by allowing the user to input the average service rate and call loss rate. Note that the average service rate and call loss rate may be stored in advance in the storage unit 20 or the like, and in this case, are read from the storage unit 20 and acquired. Then, the reservation rate calculation unit 13 substitutes the average service rate and call loss rate acquired by the reservation rate calculation data generation unit 12 and the average arrival rate calculated by the reservation registration status data generation unit 11 into Equation (2). By doing so, the number of windows is calculated.

  Thereby, for example, it is possible to simulate how many windows are required in order to achieve a desired call loss rate (or reservation possibility rate) with a certain average service rate.

  Further, when the reservation rate calculation device 1 calculates the average service rate, the reservation rate calculation data generation unit 12 acquires the number of windows and the call loss rate by allowing the user to input it. The number of windows and the call loss rate may be stored in advance in the storage unit 20 or the like, and in this case, are read from the storage unit 20 and acquired. Then, the reservable rate calculation unit 13 substitutes the number and the call loss rate acquired by the reservable rate calculation data generation unit 12 and the average arrival rate calculated by the reservation registration status data generation unit 11 into Equation (2). To calculate the average service rate.

  As a result, for example, it is possible to simulate how much average service rate is required to achieve a desired call loss rate (or reservation possibility rate) with a certain number of windows.

  As described above, the reservable rate calculation data generation unit 12 acquires any two parameters from the number of windows, the average service rate, and the call loss rate, and the reservable rate calculation unit 13 calculates the reservable rate. By substituting the two parameters acquired by the data generation unit 12 and the average arrival rate calculated by the reservation registration status data generation unit 11 into the formula (2), the data generation unit 12 for calculating the reservation possibility rate acquires A configuration for calculating a parameter that is not included is also included in the scope of the present invention.

  In addition, the method by which the data generation unit 12 for calculating the reservation possibility rate acquires parameters is not particularly limited. For example, the parameters may be acquired by causing the user to input, or parameters acquired or set in advance as in the storage unit 20 may be used. It may be stored in a storage device and obtained by reading from this storage device.

  The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and various modifications can be made within the scope shown in the claims. That is, embodiments obtained by combining technical means appropriately modified within the scope of the claims are also included in the technical scope of the present invention.

  Finally, each block of the reservation rate calculation device 1, particularly the control unit 10, may be realized in hardware by a logic circuit formed on an integrated circuit (IC chip), or may be a CPU (Central Processing Unit). You may implement | achieve by software using.

  In the latter case, the reservable rate calculating device 1 includes a CPU that executes instructions of a program that realizes each function, a ROM (Read Only Memory) that stores the program, a RAM (Random Access Memory) that expands the program, A storage device (recording medium) such as a memory for storing programs and various data is provided. An object of the present invention is a record in which the program code (execution format program, intermediate code program, source program) of the control program of the reservation rate calculation device 1 which is software that realizes the above-described functions is recorded so as to be readable by a computer. This can also be achieved by supplying a medium to the reservation rate calculating apparatus 1 and reading and executing the program code recorded on the recording medium by the computer (or CPU or MPU).

  Examples of the recording medium include tapes such as magnetic tapes and cassette tapes, magnetic disks such as floppy (registered trademark) disks / hard disks, and disks including optical disks such as CD-ROM / MO / MD / DVD / CD-R. IC cards (including memory cards) / optical cards, semiconductor memories such as mask ROM / EPROM / EEPROM / flash ROM, PLD (Programmable logic device), FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array), etc. Logic circuits can be used.

  The reservation rate calculating device 1 may be configured to be connectable to a communication network, and the program code may be supplied via the communication network. The communication network is not particularly limited as long as it can transmit the program code. For example, the Internet, intranet, extranet, LAN, ISDN, VAN, CATV communication network, virtual private network, telephone line network, mobile communication network, satellite communication network, and the like can be used. The transmission medium constituting the communication network may be any medium that can transmit the program code, and is not limited to a specific configuration or type. For example, even with wired lines such as IEEE 1394, USB, power line carrier, cable TV line, telephone line, ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) line, infrared rays such as IrDA and remote control, Bluetooth (registered trademark), IEEE 802.11 wireless, HDR ( It can also be used by radio such as High Data Rate (NFC), Near Field Communication (NFC), Digital Living Network Alliance (DLNA), mobile phone network, satellite line, and digital terrestrial network.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to perform a simulation of a system that reserves and uses services provided at a plurality of windows. Therefore, the present invention can be suitably applied to a system simulation apparatus or the like as described above.

1 Reservable rate calculation device (calculation device)
11 Reservation registration status data generator (average arrival rate calculation means)
12 Reservable rate calculation data generation unit (parameter acquisition means)
13 Reservable rate calculation unit (parameter calculation means, window group probability calculation means)
20 storage unit

Claims (7)

A computing device for simulating a system that reserves and uses services provided at multiple windows,
Average arrival rate with the number of reservations per unit period calculated from the total number of reservations to receive the service in a specified period at any specified timing within the reservation reception period as the average arrival rate at the specified timing A calculation means;
One of the number of the above-mentioned counters, an average service rate that is the number of cases where the above-mentioned service can be received at one of the above-mentioned counters per unit period, and a call loss rate that is a probability that the service cannot be reserved in the specified period at the specified timing Parameter acquisition means for acquiring two parameters;
The two parameters acquired by the parameter acquisition unit and the average arrival rate calculated by the average arrival rate calculation unit are the Erlang, which is a relational expression of the call loss rate, the number of windows, the average arrival rate, and the average service rate. And a parameter calculation unit that calculates a parameter that is not acquired by the parameter acquisition unit among the call loss rate, the number of contacts, and the average service rate. The parameter acquisition means acquires the number of the window and the average service rate,
The parameter calculation means calculates the call loss rate from the number of the counters acquired by the parameter acquisition means and the average service rate, and the average arrival rate calculated by the average arrival rate calculation means, and the call loss rate from 1 The calculation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein a reservation possibility ratio that is a probability that a service for the specified period can be reserved at the specified timing is calculated. The inter-window group service can be used when the service is available in the same designated period in the two window groups each including the above-mentioned multiple windows.
The inter-window group probability calculated by the parameter calculation means for each of the above-mentioned window groups to calculate the probability that the service between the window groups can be reserved during the specified period by multiplying the reservation possibility rate for the same specified period. The calculation apparatus according to claim 2, further comprising a calculation unit. The above service allows you to use the conference room on the specified date.
The average arrival rate calculating means calculates the total number of reservations to be used for a conference room on a specified date at any specified timing within the reservation reception period, the total number of days included in the reservation reception period, or the reservation reception. The average arrival rate is the number of reservations per day calculated by dividing the total number of available reservations in the period,
The parameter acquisition means acquires the number of conference rooms input by the user of the device as the number of the counters, acquires the average service rate from a storage unit that stores the average service rate,
The parameter calculation means substitutes the average arrival rate calculated by the average arrival rate calculation means and the parameter acquired by the parameter acquisition means into an Erlang loss formula, and sets the conference room on the specified date at the specified timing. The calculation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein a call loss rate that is a probability that reservation cannot be made is calculated. A method of controlling a computing device for simulating a system that reserves and uses services provided at multiple windows,
Average arrival rate with the number of reservations per unit period calculated from the total number of reservations to receive the service in a specified period at any specified timing within the reservation reception period as the average arrival rate at the specified timing A calculation step;
Either the number of the above-mentioned counters, an average service rate that is the number of cases where the above-mentioned service can be received at one of the above-mentioned counters per unit period, or a call loss rate that is the probability that the service of the specified period cannot be reserved at the specified timing A parameter acquisition step for acquiring two parameters;
The two parameters acquired in the parameter acquisition step and the average arrival rate calculated in the average arrival rate calculation step are Erlang, which is a relational expression of the call loss rate, the number of windows, the average arrival rate, and the average service rate. And a parameter calculation step of calculating a parameter that is not acquired in the parameter acquisition step among the call loss rate, the number of contacts, and the average service rate. .   A control program for operating the computing device according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the control program causes a computer to function as each of the means.   A computer-readable recording medium on which the control program according to claim 6 is recorded.

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