JP2011113185A - Underpass submergence prediction warning device - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To solve the following problem of a conventional method that uses a water level sensor: only the current water level information is indicated, and risk in future (a few hours later) cannot be predicted, so that risk detection may be useless. <P>SOLUTION: The underpass submergence prediction warning device 1 calculates a water level in an underpass by substituting predicted rainfall information obtained from a weather radar 2, water amount information of an observation station obtained from an observation sensor 3 installed near an underpass, and past information thereof for a water level prediction model. The underpass submergence prediction warning device 1 calculates a future (a few hours later) water level in the underpass by repeatedly calculating the water level prediction model for calculating the prediction water level in the underpath, and transmits alarm information. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2011,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to an underpass flood prediction notification apparatus.

  2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, as an underpass (underpass) inundation prediction notification device, there is one in which a water level sensor for measuring a water level in an underpass is arranged at a dangerous water level measurement position. As the operation, when a dangerous water level value is detected by a water level sensor arranged at a dangerous water level measurement position, a warning is issued to the supervisor (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

JP 2003-227717 A

  However, the method using the water level sensor disclosed in Patent Document 1 only shows the current water level information, and does not perform risk prediction after several hours.

  Therefore, an object of the present invention is to provide an underpass inundation prediction notification device that enables prediction of a dangerous water level in the underpass after several hours by introducing a system identification method into the underpass.

In order to achieve the above object, the underpass inundation prediction notification device of the present invention includes:
Storage means for storing predicted rainfall information obtained from a weather radar;
An observation station information storage means for storing the water amount information of the observation station obtained from an observation sensor installed near the underpass;
Past information storage means in which past flood data of the underpass is stored;
An underpass predicted water level high calculation unit that calculates the underpass predicted water level height from a transition prediction model estimated from the predicted rainfall information, the observation station information, and the past flooding data;
With
The underpass predicted water level height calculation unit repeatedly calculates a water level prediction model for calculating the underpass predicted water level height.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to predict flooding after several hours in the underpass from weather prediction and rainfall prediction information, so that it is possible to prevent human disasters.

The figure which shows the structure of the underpass flood prediction notification system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. The figure which shows the structure of the underpass flood prediction notification apparatus which concerns on embodiment of this invention.

  Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of an underpass flooding prediction notification system according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a configuration of the underpass flood prediction notification apparatus according to the embodiment of the present invention.

  As shown in FIG. 1, the underpass inundation prediction notification system of this embodiment includes an underpass inundation prediction notification device 1, a weather radar 2, an observation sensor 3, a display device 4, a VICS center 5, and a vehicle 6. And. In this case, the submergence prediction is notified by the display device 4 or the notification from the VICS center 5 to the vehicle 6. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and TV broadcasting, radio broadcasting, and other broadcasting facilities are provided. It may be used.

  The underpass inundation prediction apparatus 1 includes an underpass predicted water level high calculation unit 11, a predicted rainfall information storage unit 12, an observation station information storage unit 13, a past observation station information storage unit 14, and a risk determination unit 15. And.

  The underpass predicted water level high calculation unit 11 receives the weather data sent from the weather radar to the weather data submergence prediction model formula execution unit 111, and the rainfall and water information obtained from the observation sensor 3 that observes the water level of the underpass. Input to make flood prediction.

That is, when the flood forecast model formula execution unit 111 receives the predicted rainfall information stored in the predicted rainfall information storage unit 12 and the observation information stored in the observation station information storage unit 13, (Equation 1) Perform the indicated operation. Q _{(t + 1) in} Equation 1 is used to calculate the water level height at time (t + 1 _), and is obtained from the water level height Q _(t) at time _(t) and predicted rainfall information R _{(t) at} time (t + 1). .

Here, for example, numerical values are actually input and defined for c and k (Formula 2).

Note that the values of c and k (1/2, 1/3) indicate the amount of rainfall in the underpass and the change in the water level in the underpass from the measured past observation station information storage unit 14 in each underpass. It is determined by the analysis result, and is not limited to the following values.

Furthermore, by defining (Equation 2), the water level height Q (t + 2) at time _{(t + 2)} can be obtained from the water level height Q _{(t + 1) at} time _{(t + 1)} (Equation 3).

Furthermore, (Expression 4) is obtained by substituting (Expression 2) for Q _{(t + 1)} in (Expression 3).

In this way, the level is continuously expanded from t = t + 1 to t = t + x + 1, and generalized, the water level height at time (t + x + 1) is Q _(t) , R _{(t + 1)} , R _{(t + 2)} ,. It can be obtained from _{(t + x)} (Formula 5).

Here, R _{(t + 1)} , R _{(t + 2)} ,... R _{(t + x)} depend on, for example, the rainfall forecastable time of the Japan Meteorological Agency or the like. Therefore, if the predicted rainfall information R _{(t + x)} is obtained up to, for example, R _{(t + x-2)} , the amount of water in the underpass after several hours or tens of minutes can be predicted.

  The predicted rainfall information storage unit 12 obtains predicted rainfall information from the weather radar 2 and stores it.

  The observation station information storage unit 13 is installed in the vicinity of the underpass for which the amount of flooding is to be predicted, and receives and stores the flooding station information, which is the amount of water immediately before the underpass, from the observation sensor 3.

  The past observation station information storage unit 14 stores past observation information observed by the observation sensor 3.

The danger determining unit 15 determines the dangerous water level based on the underpass predicted water level high calculated by the underpass predicted water level high calculating unit 11. Specifically, when Q _{(t + 1)} indicates a value indicating a dangerous state, the fact is notified to the display device 4 or the VICS center 5.

  The meteorological radar 2 acquires the meteorological information determined for the area that affects the amount of water in the underpass including the current rainfall information. Thereafter, the weather radar 2 creates predicted rainfall information from the weather information. Then, the predicted rainfall information is sent from the weather radar 2 to the predicted rainfall information storage unit 12 of the underpass flood forecast notification device 1.

  Here, the meteorological radar 2 acquires meteorological information for calculating the forecasted rainfall of 1 km 2 around the underpass for which the amount of water is to be predicted, and is not limited to the meteorological radar but may be any system that can predict meteorological information. .

  The observation sensor 3 measures the amount of water nearest to the underpass for which the amount of water is to be predicted, and sends the amount of water information to the observation station information storage unit 13 of the underpass flood prediction notification device 1. For example, the observation sensor 3 is installed at an underpass entrance or the like.

  The display device 4 is installed at the entrance and exit of the underpass, and informs the underpass monitor of the flood information via the information display board 41. Further, if a dangerous amount of water is indicated, the inside of the underpass may be informed through the rotating lamp 42. As for the dangerous water level, an appropriate water level must be set in consideration of the time for residents in the vicinity to evacuate. They should be set with reference to information in the past observation station information storage unit 14.

  The VICS (Vehicle Information and Communication System) Center 5 acquires danger information from the underpass inundation prediction notification device 1, and the inside of the underpass is dangerous to the user of the vehicle 6 equipped with the vehicle-mounted device 61 such as a car navigation system. Notify that the water level.

  Next, the operation of the underpass flood prediction notification system configured as described above will be described.

  First, the underpass flood prediction apparatus 1 acquires predicted rainfall information and observation station information from the weather radar 2 and the observation sensor 3. The obtained predicted rainfall information is stored in the predicted rainfall information storage unit 12 of the underpass flood prediction apparatus 1, and the observation station information is also stored in the observation station information storage unit 13.

Next, the underpass predicted water level high calculation unit 11 reads the predicted rainfall information and the current observation station information from the predicted rainfall information storage unit 12 and the observation station information storage unit 13. The respective values R _{(t + x) and} Q _{(t + x)} are substituted into the submergence prediction model formula execution unit 111 to calculate the water level amount Q _{(t + x + 1)} after several hours.

After the calculation is completed, the underpass predicted water level high calculation unit 11 sends the calculated water level amount Q _{(t + 1)} after several hours to the risk determination unit 15.

When the danger determination unit 15 compares the water level quantity Q _{(t + 1)} after several hours with a predetermined dangerous water level quantity and determines that the dangerous water level quantity is indicated, the danger determination unit 15 displays the display device 4 or VICS. Danger information is sent to the center 5.

  The display device 4 displays the received danger information on the display device board 41. Alternatively, the rotating lamp 42 notifies the supervisor or the driver of the vehicle 6 traveling nearby.

  The danger information may be displayed on the vehicle-mounted device 61 mounted on the vehicle 6 via the VICS center 5.

  By doing so, it becomes possible to predict flooding in the underpass after several hours, and since there are few other external factors as shown in (Formula 1), accuracy can be maintained.

  In the present invention, the above-described embodiment can be appropriately changed in design without departing from the gist of the invention, and the embodiments may be appropriately combined as necessary.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 ... Underpass flooding prediction notification apparatus 11 ... Underpass predicted water level high calculation part 111 ... Flooding prediction model formula execution part 12 ... Predicted rainfall information storage part 13 ... Observation station information storage part 14 ... Past observation station information storage part DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 15 ... Risk determination part 2 ... Weather radar 3 ... Observation sensor 4 ... Display apparatus 41 ... Information display board 42 ... Revolving light 5 ... VICS center 6 ... Vehicle 61 ... Onboard equipment

Claims (1)

Storage means for storing predicted rainfall information obtained from a weather radar;
An observation station information storage means for storing the water amount information of the observation station obtained from an observation sensor installed near the underpass;
Past information storage means in which past flood data of the underpass is stored;
An underpass predicted water level high calculation unit that calculates the underpass predicted water level height from a transition prediction model estimated from the predicted rainfall information, the observation station information, and the past flooding data;
With
The underpass predicted water level calculation unit repeatedly calculates a water level prediction model for calculating the underpass predicted water level.

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