JP2009213338A - Power consumption estimating system - Google Patents

Power consumption estimating system Download PDF

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JP2009213338A
JP2009213338A JP2008056853A JP2008056853A JP2009213338A JP 2009213338 A JP2009213338 A JP 2009213338A JP 2008056853 A JP2008056853 A JP 2008056853A JP 2008056853 A JP2008056853 A JP 2008056853A JP 2009213338 A JP2009213338 A JP 2009213338A
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power consumption
power
estimated
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JP5113563B2 (en
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Shigeru Nonami
成 野波
Satoru Nakamura
哲 中村
大輔 ▲高▼内
Daisuke Takauchi
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Osaka Gas Co Ltd
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    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a power consumption estimating system which estimates the privately-used power consumption quantity among power generation quantities of a power consumer provided with a photovoltaic power generator. <P>SOLUTION: A reception means 11 receives first information related to an attribute of the photovoltaic power generator, second information related to a power consumption tendency of the power consumer, and third information related to purchase power quantity or purchase power expense of the power consumer within a prescribed operation period. An estimation means 14 calculates an estimated-by-unit home power-consumption quantity, by estimating a home power-consumption quantity per first unit time zone occupied in an estimated-by-unit power generation quantity, based on the difference value between the estimated-by-unit power generating quantity calculated by an estimation means 12, on the basis of assumed power consumption quantity and the estimated-by-unit power consumption quantity calculated by an estimation means 13, and calculates the estimated home power-consumption quantity by totaling each estimated-by-unit home power-consumption quantity. A correction means 15 decides whether correction is to be performed, based on the difference value between the estimated purchase power quantity obtained by deducting the estimated-by-unit home power-consumption quantity from the assumed power consumption quantity and the purchase power quantity obtained from the third information. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2009,JPO&INPIT

Description

本発明は、電力消費量を推定するシステムであって、特に、太陽光発電設備を備える電力消費者の発電量の内の自家電力消費量を推定するシステムに関する。   The present invention relates to a system for estimating power consumption, and more particularly to a system for estimating private power consumption among power generation by a power consumer having a photovoltaic power generation facility.

従来、一般家庭において消費されるエネルギは、電力会社やガス会社から電力、都市ガス等の形態で供給され、夫々個別に消費されていた。ところで、最近はＣＯ２排出量の削減や省エネルギを志向した分散型エネルギシステムの開発が活発であり実用化も進んでおり、一般家庭、集合住宅、オフィス等においても電力消費地で発電を行う分散型発電システムの利用が今後急速に進展するものと考えられる。このように一般家庭内におけるエネルギ供給の形態が多様化したことにより、家庭内のエネルギ需要傾向とエネルギ供給形態の整合性によってエネルギコスト及びＣＯ２排出量等の環境性が大幅に改善される余地が生じた。従って、家庭内のエネルギ需要傾向を正確に把握することにより、エネルギコスト及びＣＯ２排出量等の環境性に最適なエネルギ供給形態を選択できることになる。 Conventionally, energy consumed in ordinary households is supplied in the form of electric power, city gas, etc. from an electric power company or a gas company and is individually consumed. By the way, recently, a decentralized energy system aimed at reducing CO 2 emissions and saving energy has been actively developed and put into practical use, and power is generated in a power consuming area even in ordinary homes, apartment houses, offices, etc. The use of distributed power generation systems is expected to progress rapidly in the future. As a result of the diversification of energy supply forms in general households, there is room for greatly improving environmental performance such as energy costs and CO 2 emissions due to the consistency between household energy demand trends and energy supply forms. Occurred. Therefore, by accurately grasping the energy demand trend in the home, it is possible to select an energy supply mode that is optimal for environmental performance such as energy cost and CO 2 emission.

家庭内のエネルギ需要の推定手法としては、例えば下記の特許文献１に開示された推定手法のように、エネルギ消費者の行動スケジュールと、その行動に付随する機器のエネルギ消費量から、家庭内のエネルギ消費量（需要）を推定する手法が提案されている。例えば、図４に例示するような行動スケジュール表に、家庭の構成員毎のスケジュールを入力した行動スケジュールデータ、更に、図５に例示するように行動に付随する機器及びそのエネルギ消費量を網羅したデータを作成する。   As an estimation method of energy demand in the home, for example, as in the estimation method disclosed in Patent Document 1 below, from the energy consumer's action schedule and the energy consumption of the equipment accompanying the action, A method for estimating energy consumption (demand) has been proposed. For example, the behavior schedule table illustrated in FIG. 4 includes behavior schedule data in which a schedule for each household member is input, and further, the devices associated with the behavior and the energy consumption thereof as illustrated in FIG. Create data.

しかしながら、下記特許文献１に記載の推定手法では、非常に多くのエネルギ消費機器の登録を行う必要があり、また、エネルギ消費者の行動スケジュールを把握することは困難であるため、一般的な行動データ（例えば、ＮＨＫ放送文化研究所が調査した国民生活時間調査報告書等）を用いることが多く、推定結果としての出力であるエネルギ消費量が、消費者が過去に経験した消費量と乖離していることもあり、信憑性に疑いが出ることもある。   However, in the estimation method described in Patent Document 1 below, it is necessary to register a large number of energy consuming devices, and it is difficult to grasp the energy consumer's action schedule. Data (for example, national life time survey report surveyed by NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute) is often used, and the energy consumption, which is the output as an estimation result, deviates from the consumption experienced by consumers in the past. Sometimes suspicious about authenticity.

かかる問題点に鑑み、本出願人によって、推定に要するデータ入力を簡素化でき、且つ、推定結果の信憑性の高い家庭用エネルギ需要推定システムが既に提供されている（特許文献２参照）。   In view of such problems, the applicant has already provided a home energy demand estimation system that can simplify data input required for estimation and has high reliability of estimation results (see Patent Document 2).

特許文献２に記載のシステムによれば、家庭の家族構成、昼間の在宅者の有無、床面積、並びに過去のエネルギ使用量実績値の各データのみで、一般的な家庭における典型的な１日のエネルギ需要曲線（パターン）の有するピーク需要（第１特徴時間帯の時間帯別エネルギ使用量）とボトム需要（第２特徴時間帯の時間帯別エネルギ使用量）が推定され、更に補間処理が施されることで、両特徴時間帯の間の時間帯に係るエネルギ使用量が推定され、これによって１日のエネルギ使用量の変動パターンが推定できる。従って、特許文献１に記載の方法のように多くのデータを必要とせず、推定処理時に必要な入力データを簡素化することができる。   According to the system described in Patent Document 2, a typical day in a general household is determined only by data on the family structure of the home, the presence or absence of a person in the daytime, the floor area, and the past actual energy usage. The peak demand (energy usage by time zone in the first feature time zone) and bottom demand (energy usage by time zone in the second feature time zone) of the energy demand curve (pattern) are estimated, and further interpolation processing is performed. By being applied, an energy usage amount related to a time zone between both characteristic time zones is estimated, and thereby a fluctuation pattern of the daily energy usage amount can be estimated. Therefore, unlike the method described in Patent Document 1, a large amount of data is not required, and input data required at the time of estimation processing can be simplified.

又、推定された１日の変動パターンから特定期間のエネルギ累積使用量を算出すると共に、過去の実績値と比較してその誤差を表示し、更に推定された各ピーク需要及びボトム需要を修正可能に構成されているので、過去の実績値と齟齬のない信憑性の高い１日のエネルギ使用量を簡単に推定することができる。   In addition, the accumulated energy consumption for a specific period can be calculated from the estimated daily fluctuation pattern, the error can be displayed in comparison with the past actual values, and each estimated peak demand and bottom demand can be corrected. Therefore, it is possible to easily estimate the daily energy usage amount with high reliability without any conflict with past performance values.

特開２００３−１２５５３５号公報JP 2003-125535 A 特開２００５−１２２２５５号公報JP 2005-122255 A

ところで、近年、環境意識の高まりから太陽光発電設備を導入する家庭が増加している。太陽光発電設備は、太陽光エネルギを電気エネルギに変換するシステムであり、発電時にＣＯ２の排出がないことから環境に優しいクリーンなエネルギであるため、環境意識の高い需要者が各家庭内に家庭用の太陽光発電設備を導入するケースが増えてきている。 By the way, in recent years, an increasing number of households have introduced solar power generation facilities due to increased environmental awareness. Solar power generation equipment is a system that converts solar energy into electrical energy, and since it is clean and environmentally friendly because there is no CO 2 emission during power generation, consumers with high environmental awareness are in each household. More and more cases are introducing solar power generation equipment for home use.

特許文献２に記載のシステムの場合、推定処理に用いる過去のエネルギ使用量実績値としては、エネルギ使用量そのもののデータが存在しない場合には需要者が実際に電力購入に際して電力会社に支払った電気料金から算出する方法が採用されていた。   In the case of the system described in Patent Document 2, as the past energy usage actual value used for the estimation process, if there is no data on the energy usage itself, the electricity that the consumer actually paid to the power company when purchasing the power The method of calculating from the fee was adopted.

しかしながら、太陽光発電設備が導入された家庭において、前記特許文献２に記載の方法を用いて電力消費量の推定を行った場合、電力購入に際して電力会社に支払った電気料金から算出される電力量と実際に消費された電力量との間に齟齬が発生するため、正しく電力消費量の推定を行うことができない。図６は、太陽光発電設備を備える電力消費者の電力消費量を説明するための模式図である。   However, in a home where a photovoltaic power generation facility is introduced, when the power consumption is estimated using the method described in Patent Document 2, the amount of power calculated from the electricity bill paid to the power company when purchasing power And a power amount actually consumed, a wrinkle occurs, so that the power consumption amount cannot be estimated correctly. FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram for explaining the power consumption of a power consumer including the photovoltaic power generation facility.

図６において、Ｐ１が電力消費者が電力会社から購入した電力量、Ｐ２が太陽光発電設備によって発電した電力量を表している。このＰ２は、電力会社に買い取られた売電量Ｐ３と、自家消費用途に賄われた電力量Ｐ５とに分解される。このとき、当該電力消費者が実際に消費した電力消費量Ｐ３は、電力会社から購入した電力量Ｐ１と、発電電力量の内の自家消費用途として用いられた電力量Ｐ５の合計として規定される。つまり、太陽光発電設備が導入された家庭においては、電力会社から購入した電力量Ｐ１のみならず、太陽光発電設備によって発電された電力量Ｐ５も消費されるため、購入電力量Ｐ１は実際に消費される電力量Ｐ３に対して少なくなる。   In FIG. 6, P1 represents the amount of power purchased by the power consumer from the power company, and P2 represents the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility. This P2 is broken down into the amount of power sold P3 purchased by the power company and the amount of power P5 provided for private consumption. At this time, the power consumption P3 actually consumed by the power consumer is defined as the sum of the power amount P1 purchased from the power company and the power amount P5 used for self-consumption within the generated power amount. . That is, in the home where the solar power generation facility is introduced, not only the power amount P1 purchased from the electric power company but also the power amount P5 generated by the solar power generation facility is consumed. The power consumption P3 is reduced.

このため、太陽光発電設備が導入された家庭に対して、前記特許文献２に記載の方法を用いて電力消費量の推定を行うためには、実際に家庭内で消費された電力消費量実績値Ｐ３を算出する必要があるが、前記特許文献２にはかかる方法が開示されていない。言い換えれば、太陽光発電設備が導入された家庭に対して前記特許文献２に記載の方法を用いて正しく電力消費量の推定を行うためには、電力購入に際して電力会社に支払った電気料金から算出される電力量Ｐ１を電力消費量実績値とするのではなく、実際に家庭内で消費された電力消費量実績値Ｐ３を算出する必要がある。ここで、実際に家庭内で消費された電力消費量Ｐ３とは、前述のように、電力会社から購入した電力量Ｐ１と、太陽光発電設備で発電された電力量の内の家庭内で消費された自家消費電力量Ｐ５の合計値で表すことができる。   For this reason, in order to estimate the power consumption using the method described in Patent Document 2 for the home where the solar power generation facility is introduced, the actual power consumption actually consumed in the home Although it is necessary to calculate the value P3, Patent Document 2 does not disclose such a method. In other words, in order to correctly estimate power consumption using the method described in Patent Document 2 for a home where a photovoltaic power generation facility is introduced, it is calculated from the electricity bill paid to the power company when purchasing power. It is necessary to calculate the actual power consumption value P3 actually consumed in the home instead of using the actual power consumption P1 as the actual power consumption value. Here, the power consumption P3 actually consumed in the home is the amount of power P1 purchased from the power company and the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility in the home as described above. It can be expressed by the total value of the private power consumption P5.

つまり、太陽光発電設備で発電された電力量Ｐ２の内、自家消費電力量Ｐ５と売電量Ｐ４の内訳を認識することができれば、実際に家庭内で消費された電力消費量を認識することが可能となる。   That is, if the breakdown of the power consumption P5 and the power sales P4 can be recognized among the power P2 generated by the solar power generation facility, the power consumption actually consumed in the home can be recognized. It becomes possible.

本発明は、上記の問題点に鑑み、太陽光発電設備を備える電力消費者の発電量の内の自家電力消費量を推定する電力消費量推定システムを提供することを目的とする。   In view of the above problems, an object of the present invention is to provide a power consumption estimation system that estimates a self-power consumption amount of a power generation amount of a power consumer including a photovoltaic power generation facility.

上記目的を達成するための本発明に係る電力消費量推定システムは、太陽光発電設備を備える電力消費者の太陽光発電量の内の自家電力消費量を推定する電力消費量推定システムであって、前記太陽光発電設備の属性に関する第１情報、前記電力消費者の電力消費傾向に関する第２情報、及び所定の演算対象期間内における前記電力消費者の購入電力量又は購入電力費用に関する第３情報の入力を受け付ける情報入力受付手段と、前記第１情報に基づいて、前記演算対象期間内における前記発電量を所定の第１単位時間帯毎に推定し、単位推定発電量を算出する時間帯別発電量推定手段と、前記演算対象期間内における前記電力消費者の実際の電力消費量である実質電力消費量を所定の方法で想定した想定電力消費量に関する情報、前記第２情報、及び前記第３情報に基づいて、前記演算対象期間内における電力消費量を前記第１単位時間帯毎に推定し、単位推定電力消費量を算出する時間帯別電力消費量推定手段と、前記単位推定発電量、前記単位推定電力消費量、及び前記第３情報から得られた前記購入電力量に基づいて、前記発電量の内の自家消費として用いられた推定自家電力消費量を算出する自家電力消費量推定手段と、前記想定電力消費量及び前記推定自家電力消費量に基づいて、前記想定電力消費量を前記実質電力消費量に近づけるための補正処理を行う補正手段と、を備え、前記時間帯別電力消費量推定手段が、前記補正手段による補正処理前の段階では、前記購入電力量を前記想定電力消費量とする一方、補正処理後の段階では、前記補正手段から与えられる補正値を直前の前記単位推定電力消費量算出時に用いた前記想定電力消費量に加算した値を前記想定電力消費量として前記単位推定電力消費量の算出を行い、前記自家電力消費量推定手段が、前記単位推定発電量と前記単位推定電力消費量の差分値に基づいて、前記単位推定発電量に占める前記第１単位時間帯毎の自家電力消費量を推定して単位推定自家電力消費量を算出すると共に、前記各単位推定自家電力消費量を前記演算対象期間内に亘って累計することで前記推定自家電力消費量を算出し、前記補正手段が、前記想定電力消費量から前記推定自家電力消費量を差し引いた推定購入電力量と、前記第３情報から得られる前記購入電力量の差分値に基づいて、前記補正値を算出して前記時間帯別電力消費量推定手段に与えて再度演算処理を行わせるか、又は直前に算出された前記推定自家電力消費量を前記自家電力消費量と決定するかの判断を行うことを第１の特徴とする。   In order to achieve the above object, a power consumption estimation system according to the present invention is a power consumption estimation system for estimating a private power consumption of a solar power generation amount of a power consumer having a solar power generation facility. , First information regarding the attribute of the photovoltaic power generation facility, second information regarding the power consumption tendency of the power consumer, and third information regarding the amount of purchased power or purchased power cost of the power consumer within a predetermined calculation target period Based on information input accepting means for accepting the input of the input, and on the basis of the first information, the power generation amount in the calculation target period is estimated for each predetermined first unit time zone, and the unit estimated power generation amount is calculated for each time zone Power generation amount estimation means, and information on an assumed power consumption amount in which a real power consumption amount that is an actual power consumption amount of the power consumer in the calculation target period is assumed by a predetermined method, the second Based on the information and the third information, the power consumption amount estimation means for each time zone for estimating the power consumption amount in the calculation target period for each first unit time zone and calculating the unit estimated power consumption amount; Based on the unit estimated power generation amount, the unit estimated power consumption amount, and the purchased power amount obtained from the third information, an estimated private power consumption amount used as private consumption of the power generation amount is calculated. A self-power consumption estimating means; and a correcting means for performing a correction process for bringing the assumed power consumption close to the real power consumption based on the assumed power consumption and the estimated private power consumption. The power consumption estimation unit for each time zone uses the purchased power amount as the assumed power consumption before the correction process by the correction unit, while the compensation given from the correction unit at the stage after the correction process. The unit estimated power consumption is calculated using the value obtained by adding a value to the assumed power consumption used when the unit estimated power consumption is calculated immediately before as the assumed power consumption. Based on the difference value between the unit estimated power generation amount and the unit estimated power consumption amount, the unit estimated self power consumption amount is calculated by estimating the self power consumption amount for each of the first unit time periods in the unit estimated power generation amount. And calculating the estimated private power consumption by accumulating the unit estimated private power consumption over the calculation target period, and the correcting means calculates the estimated private power consumption from the assumed power consumption. Based on the difference between the estimated purchased power amount obtained by subtracting the amount and the purchased power amount obtained from the third information, the correction value is calculated and given to the hourly power consumption estimating unit to perform the calculation process again. The line Or determining whether the estimated self-power consumption calculated immediately before is determined as the self-power consumption.

本発明に係る電力消費量推定システムの上記第１の特徴構成によれば、電力消費者によって容易に取得可能な、太陽光発電設備の属性に関する第１情報、電力消費者の電力消費傾向に関する第２情報、並びに電力消費者の購入電力量又は購入電力費用に関する第３情報の各情報を入力することのみで、太陽光発電設備を備える電力消費者に対して、当該太陽光発電設備によって発電された電力量の内、自家消費に用いられた自家電力消費量を認識することができる。これによって、同電力消費者に対して省エネルギ行動の指針としての利用価値の高い情報を提示することが可能となる。   According to the first characteristic configuration of the power consumption estimation system according to the present invention, the first information relating to the attributes of the photovoltaic power generation equipment, which can be easily acquired by the power consumer, and the power consumption tendency of the power consumer. 2 By inputting only the information and each information of the third information related to the power consumer's purchased power amount or purchased power cost, the power consumer equipped with the solar power generation facility can generate power by the solar power generation facility. It is possible to recognize the self-power consumption used for self-consumption. This makes it possible to present information with high utility value as a guideline for energy saving behavior to the same electric power consumer.

又、本発明に係る電力消費量推定システムは、上記第１の特徴構成に加えて、前記自家電力消費量推定手段が、前記第１単位時間帯毎に前記単位推定発電量から前記単位推定電力消費量を差し引いて差分値を算出し、当該算出結果が０又は正値であれば、前記単位推定電力消費量を前記単位推定自家電力消費量とする一方、負値であれば前記単位推定発電量を前記単位推定自家電力消費量とし、得られた前記各単位推定自家電力消費量を前記演算対象期間内に亘って累計することを第２の特徴とする。   Further, in the power consumption estimation system according to the present invention, in addition to the first feature configuration, the private power consumption estimation means may calculate the unit estimated power from the unit estimated power generation for each first unit time zone. The difference value is calculated by subtracting the consumption amount. If the calculation result is 0 or a positive value, the unit estimated power consumption amount is set as the unit estimated private power consumption amount. The amount is set as the unit estimated private power consumption, and the obtained unit estimated private power consumption is accumulated over the calculation target period as a second feature.

又、本発明に係る電力消費量推定システムは、上記第１又は第２の特徴構成に加えて、前記時間帯別電力消費量推定手段が、前記第２情報を変数とする回帰式に基づいて前記第１単位時間帯毎の電力消費量を概算的に求出した単位概算電力消費量を前記演算期間に亘って累積することで概算電力消費量を算出し、前記想定電力消費量と前記概算電力消費量の差分値を算出すると共に、当該差分値を所定の時間帯別又は用途別のバラツキ程度に応じて前記単位概算電力消費量に対して按分することで前記単位推定電力消費量を算出することを第３の特徴とする。   In addition to the first or second feature configuration, the power consumption estimation system according to the present invention is based on a regression equation in which the time-specific power consumption estimation means uses the second information as a variable. The approximate power consumption is calculated by accumulating the unit approximate power consumption calculated approximately for the first unit time period over the calculation period, and the estimated power consumption and the approximate The difference value of power consumption is calculated, and the unit estimated power consumption is calculated by dividing the difference value with respect to the unit estimated power consumption according to the degree of variation for each predetermined time zone or application. This is a third feature.

又、本発明に係る電力消費量推定システムは、上記第１〜第３の何れか一の特徴構成に加えて、前記補正手段が、前記推定購入電力量と前記購入電力量の差分値を算出すると共に、当該算出結果の絶対値が基準値より大きければ、前記推定自家電力消費量を前記補正値として前記時間帯別電力消費量推定手段に与える一方、基準値以下であれば、直前に算出された前記推定自家電力消費量を前記演算期間内に亘る前記自家電力消費量とすることを第４の特徴とする。   Further, in the power consumption estimation system according to the present invention, in addition to any one of the first to third feature configurations, the correction means calculates a difference value between the estimated purchased power amount and the purchased power amount. In addition, if the absolute value of the calculation result is larger than a reference value, the estimated private power consumption is given as the correction value to the hourly power consumption estimation means. A fourth feature is that the estimated private power consumption is the private power consumption over the calculation period.

本発明の構成によれば、電力消費者によって容易に取得可能な、太陽光発電設備の属性に関する第１情報、電力消費者の電力消費傾向に関する第２情報、並びに電力消費者の購入電力量又は購入電力費用に関する第３情報の各情報を入力することのみで、太陽光発電設備を備える電力消費者に対して、当該太陽光発電設備によって発電された電力量の内、自家消費に用いられた自家電力消費量を認識することができる。これによって、同電力消費者に対して省エネルギ行動の指針としての利用価値の高い情報を提示することが可能となる。   According to the configuration of the present invention, the first information regarding the attributes of the photovoltaic power generation facility, the second information regarding the power consumption tendency of the power consumer, and the purchased power amount of the power consumer or It was used for self-consumption of the amount of power generated by the solar power generation facility for the power consumer equipped with the solar power generation facility only by inputting each information of the third information related to the purchased power cost. You can recognize private power consumption. This makes it possible to present information with high utility value as a guideline for energy saving behavior to the same electric power consumer.

以下において、本発明に係る電力消費量推定システム（以下、適宜「本発明システム」と称する）の実施形態について図面を参照して説明する。   Hereinafter, an embodiment of a power consumption estimation system according to the present invention (hereinafter referred to as “the present system” as appropriate) will be described with reference to the drawings.

図１は、本発明システムの概略構成を示すブロック図である。図１に示すように、本発明システム１は、情報入力受付手段１１、時間帯別発電量推定手段１２、時間帯別電力消費量推定手段１３、自家電力消費量推定手段１４、補正手段１５、及び出力手段１６を備える。尚、上記各手段１２〜１５は、本発明システム１がノートパソコンやＰＤＡ（Personal Digital Assistants）等の携帯型の汎用コンピュータで構成される場合に、コンピュータのハードウェア資源（ＣＰＵや各種記憶装置等）及びソフトウェア資源（ＯＳ、各種ドライバ、データベース管理ソフト等）を使用してソフトウェア処理により実現される機能的手段である。   FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a schematic configuration of the system of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 1, the system 1 of the present invention includes an information input receiving unit 11, a power generation amount estimation unit 12 according to time zone, a power consumption estimation unit 13 according to time zone, a private power consumption estimation unit 14, a correction unit 15, And output means 16. Each of the above means 12 to 15 is a computer hardware resource (CPU, various storage devices, etc.) when the system 1 of the present invention is constituted by a portable general-purpose computer such as a notebook personal computer or PDA (Personal Digital Assistants). ) And software resources (OS, various drivers, database management software, etc.).

情報入力受付手段１１は、電力消費者が備える太陽光発電設備の属性に関する情報（以下、「第１情報」と称する）、電力消費者の電力消費傾向に関する情報（以下、「第２情報」と称する）、及び所定の演算対象期間内における電力消費者の購入電力量又は購入電力費用に関する情報（以下、「第３情報」と称する）の入力を受け付ける情報入力用インタフェースであり、例えばキーボード、タッチパネル、マウス等の入力装置、或いは電気通信回線を介して情報の入力を受け付ける情報受信手段で構成される。尚、以下では、第３情報が対象とする「所定の演算対象期間」を１年として説明する。この場合、第３情報とは、１年間における電力消費者の購入電力量又は購入電力費用の実績値に関する情報を指す。   The information input accepting unit 11 includes information on the attributes of the photovoltaic power generation facilities included in the power consumer (hereinafter referred to as “first information”), information on the power consumption tendency of the power consumer (hereinafter referred to as “second information”). And an information input interface for accepting input of information (hereinafter referred to as “third information”) relating to the amount of purchased power or the purchased power cost of the power consumer within a predetermined calculation target period. , An input device such as a mouse, or information receiving means for receiving input of information via a telecommunication line. In the following description, the “predetermined calculation target period” targeted by the third information is assumed to be one year. In this case, the third information indicates information related to the actual value of the purchased power amount or purchased power cost of the power consumer in one year.

第１情報は、電力消費者が備える太陽光発電設備の属性に関する情報であり、例えば、太陽光発電設備のパネル面積、パネルの方位角及び水平傾斜角等に関する情報で構成される。これらの情報は、太陽光発電設備の施工を行った際に用いられた工事図面やカタログ等を参照することで電力消費者が容易に認識することのできる情報である。   1st information is the information regarding the attribute of the photovoltaic power generation equipment with which an electric power consumer is provided, for example, is comprised by the information regarding the panel area of a photovoltaic power generation equipment, the azimuth of a panel, a horizontal inclination angle, etc. These pieces of information can be easily recognized by the power consumer by referring to the construction drawings and catalogs used when the solar power generation facilities are constructed.

第２情報は、電力消費者の電力消費傾向に関する情報であり、例えば対象となる電力消費者家庭の家族構成（家族数Ｎ（人））、昼間の在宅者の有無（在宅者有り：Ｘ＝１、無し：Ｘ＝０）、延床面積（Ｓ（ｍ３））の情報等で構成される。これらの情報についても、電力消費者によって容易に認識することのできる情報である。 The second information is information related to the power consumption tendency of the power consumer. For example, the family structure of the target power consumer household (the number of families N (persons)), the presence / absence of daytime homes (with homes: X = 1, None: X = 0), information of total floor area (S (m 3 )), and the like. These pieces of information are also information that can be easily recognized by power consumers.

第３情報は、１年間における電力消費者の購入電力量又は購入電力費用の実績値に関する情報である。例えば、電力料金を口座振替で支払っている電力消費者の場合には、通帳等に記録された情報に基づいて１年間に亘る総購入電力費用を算出することで容易に認識することのできる情報である。   The third information is information relating to the actual value of the purchased power amount or purchased power cost of the power consumer in one year. For example, in the case of a power consumer who pays the power bill by account transfer, information that can be easily recognized by calculating the total purchase power cost over one year based on the information recorded in the passbook etc. It is.

時間帯別発電量推定手段１２は、入力された第１情報に基づいて、１年間に亘る発電量を所定の第１単位時間帯毎に推定し、時間帯別の推定発電量（以下、「単位推定発電量」と称する）を算出する。尚、ここでは、前記第１単位時間帯を１時間として説明する。この場合、時間帯別発電量推定手段１２によって、１時間毎の単位推定発電量が１年間に亘って推定される。   Based on the input first information, the hourly power generation amount estimation means 12 estimates the amount of power generation over one year for each predetermined first unit time zone, and the hourly power generation estimation amount (hereinafter, “ (Referred to as “unit estimated power generation”). Here, the first unit time zone is described as 1 hour. In this case, the hourly unit power generation amount estimation means 12 estimates the unit estimated power generation amount per hour over one year.

又、本発明システム１が所定の情報を記録した記憶手段（不図示）を備えており、時間帯別発電量推定手段１２が単位推定発電量を算出するに際し、記憶手段内に予め記録されている、太陽光発電設備が設置された地理的位置における緯度及び時間帯別日射量（全天日射量等）に関する情報を利用するものとして構わない。更に、記憶手段には、入力された第３情報、並びに緯度及び時間帯別日射量に関する情報に基づいて単位推定発電量の演算が可能なプログラムが記録されているものとして良い。単位推定発電量の演算プログラムは、例えばＮＥＤＯ（新エネルギー・産業技術総合開発機構）のホームページで公開されている太陽光発電量の概算演算式等に基づいて作成することができる。   Further, the system 1 of the present invention is provided with a storage means (not shown) in which predetermined information is recorded, and is recorded in advance in the storage means when the hourly power generation amount estimation means 12 calculates the unit estimated power generation amount. It is possible to use information on the amount of solar radiation by the latitude and time zone (global solar radiation amount, etc.) at the geographical location where the solar power generation facility is installed. Further, the storage means may be recorded with a program capable of calculating the unit estimated power generation amount based on the input third information and information on the solar radiation amount by latitude and time zone. The unit estimated power generation calculation program can be created based on, for example, an approximate calculation formula for solar power generation disclosed on the NEDO (New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization) website.

時間帯別電力消費量推定手段１３は、まず、入力された第３情報から導かれる年間の購入電力量を電力消費者が１年間に消費した仮の電力消費量と想定する（以下、「想定電力消費量」と称する）。そして、第２情報に基づいて認識される電力消費傾向、並びに前記想定電力消費量を用いて、１年間に消費される電力消費量を１時間毎に推定し、時間帯別の電力消費量（以下、「単位推定電力消費量」と称する）を算出する。   The hourly power consumption estimation means 13 first assumes that the annual purchased power derived from the input third information is the provisional power consumption consumed by the power consumer for one year (hereinafter referred to as “assumed” Referred to as “power consumption”). Then, by using the power consumption trend recognized based on the second information and the assumed power consumption, the power consumption consumed for one year is estimated every hour, and the power consumption by time zone ( Hereinafter, it is referred to as “unit estimated power consumption”).

より詳細には、暖房や冷房の空調機器を使用しない中間期における電力消費の実測データに基づいて一般的な手法で導出された回帰式に対して、第２情報から得られる電力消費者固有の情報（前記例で言えば、Ｎ，Ｘ，Ｓの各数値に相当）を代入することで、２４時間を複数の特徴時間帯にグルーピングしたときの各特徴時間帯毎のピーク値及びボトム値、例えば、朝、昼、夜の３つのピーク消費量ＥＰ１〜ＥＰ３と、早朝、朝、昼の３つのボトム消費量ＥＢ１〜ＥＢ３を夫々推定する。ＥＰ１〜ＥＰ３は、夫々起床時間後の２〜３時間、正午前後の２〜３時間、午後７時前後の２〜３時間の各時間範囲に含まれる３つの特徴時間帯ｔＰ１〜ｔＰ３における推定電力消費量に相当し、ＥＢ１〜ＥＢ３は、夫々起床時間前の２〜３時間、午前１０時前後の２〜３時間、午後３時前後の２〜３時間の各時間範囲に含まれる３つの特徴時間帯ｔＢ１〜ｔＢ３における推定電力消費量に相当する。 More specifically, the regression formula derived by the general method based on the measured data of the power consumption in the intermediate period without using the air conditioning equipment for heating and cooling is different from the regression formula derived by the general method. By substituting information (corresponding to the numerical values of N, X, and S in the above example), the peak value and the bottom value for each feature time zone when 24 hours are grouped into a plurality of feature time zones, For example, three peak consumptions E P1 to E P3 in the morning, noon, and night and three bottom consumptions E B1 to E B3 in the early morning, morning, and noon are estimated. E P1 ~E P3 is, two to three hours after each wake-up time, two to three hours before and after noon, three of the characteristic time period t P1 ~t included in each time range of 2 to 3 hours of 7:00 before and after the afternoon It corresponds to the estimated power consumption in P3 , and E B1 to E B3 are respectively 2 to 3 hours before wake-up time, 2 to 3 hours before and after 10:00 am, and 2 to 3 hours before and after 3 pm This corresponds to the estimated power consumption in the three characteristic time zones t B1 to t B3 included in.

その後、各特徴時間帯毎の推定電力消費量ＥＰ１〜ＥＰ３並びにＥＢ１〜ＥＢ３に基づいて、隣接する２つの特徴時間帯に係るピーク値とボトム値の間を補間することで、１日の全ての時間帯における電力消費量を推定する。補間方法としては、予め定められた数値に従って各時間帯毎に配分することで行う。例えば、夜のピーク時間帯から早朝のボトム時間帯までの補間は、ＥＰ３とＥＢ１の差分ΔＥ１を、特徴時間帯ｔＰ３から１時間後に差分ΔＥ１の５％、２時間後に差分ΔＥ１の２５％、３時間後に差分ΔＥ１の３５％、４時間後に差分ΔＥ１の２０％、それ以降特徴時間帯ｔＢ１までは、残りの差分ΔＥ１の１５％を均等に配分する。他の特徴時間帯間に係る補間も同様に行う。補間処理の際に用いられる配分率に関する情報は、複数の消費者における電力消費量の実測データに基づいて予め定められたものを利用することができる。 After that, by interpolating between the peak value and the bottom value related to two adjacent feature time zones based on the estimated power consumption amounts E P1 to E P3 and E B1 to E B3 for each feature time zone, Estimate power consumption during all time of day. As an interpolation method, it is performed by allocating for each time zone according to a predetermined numerical value. For example, the interpolation from the night peak time zone to the early morning bottom time zone is performed by setting the difference ΔE 1 between E P3 and E B1 to 5% of the difference ΔE 1 one hour after the characteristic time zone t P3 and the difference ΔE after 2 hours. 25% 1, 35% of the difference Delta] E 1 after 3 hours, 20% of the difference Delta] E 1 after 4 hours, until the characteristic time period t B1 later, equally allocate 15% of the remaining difference Delta] E 1. Interpolation between other feature time zones is performed in the same manner. Information relating to the distribution rate used in the interpolation processing can be determined in advance based on measured data of power consumption by a plurality of consumers.

更に、一般的な手法で導出された回帰式に対して第２情報から得られるＮ，Ｘ，Ｓの各数値を代入することで、夏期並びに冬期における各特徴時間帯毎の温度補正量を算出すると共に、中間期に係る各ピーク値及びボトム値に対して前記温度補正量を加算することで、夏期及び冬期における各特徴時間帯毎のピーク値及びボトム値を算出する。そして、前記と同様の補間処理を行うことで、夏期及び冬期夫々において、時間帯毎の電力消費量を推定する。   Further, by substituting the numerical values of N, X, and S obtained from the second information into the regression equation derived by a general method, the temperature correction amount for each feature time zone in summer and winter is calculated. At the same time, the peak value and the bottom value for each characteristic time zone in the summer and winter are calculated by adding the temperature correction amount to each peak value and bottom value in the intermediate period. Then, by performing the same interpolation processing as described above, the power consumption for each time zone is estimated in each of summer and winter.

このようにして推定された中間期（４月〜５月、１０月〜１１月）、夏期（６月〜９月）及び冬期（１２月〜３月）の時間帯毎の電力消費量を累計することで、各期毎の累計電力消費量が概算的に算出される。   Accumulated power consumption for each of the estimated intermediate periods (April to May, October to November), summer (June to September), and winter (December to March) By doing so, the cumulative power consumption for each period is roughly calculated.

次に、第３情報から得られる年間の購入電力量を用途別に分解することで、想定電力消費量に基づく中間期、夏期、冬期夫々の電力消費量を算出する。用途別の分解方法は、例えば前述の方法で概算的に算出された各期毎の累計電力消費量の比率で配分することで算出するものとしても良い。   Next, by dividing the annual purchased power amount obtained from the third information by use, the power consumption amount for each of the intermediate period, summer period, and winter period based on the assumed power consumption amount is calculated. The disassembling method for each application may be calculated by, for example, allocating at a ratio of the cumulative power consumption for each period calculated roughly by the above-described method.

このようにして、第２情報に基づく各期毎の累計電力消費量、並びに想定電力消費量に基づく各期毎の累計電力消費量が夫々算出されると、期毎に両電力消費量の差分値を算出し、その差分量を予め定められているバラツキ程度に応じて按分することで、補正処理を行う。バラツキ程度は、予め多数の家庭における各時間帯毎の電力消費量データに基づいて算出された中間期、夏期、冬期夫々の時間帯毎の標準偏差が記憶手段に記録されており、当該標準偏差の割合に応じて各期毎の累計電力消費量に加減処理を行うものとすることができる。   In this way, when the cumulative power consumption for each period based on the second information and the cumulative power consumption for each period based on the assumed power consumption are calculated, the difference between both power consumptions for each period is calculated. A correction process is performed by calculating a value and apportioning the difference amount according to a predetermined variation. As for the degree of variation, the standard deviation for each time period of each of the intermediate period, summer period, and winter period, which is calculated based on the power consumption data for each time period in a large number of households, is recorded in the storage means. Depending on the ratio, the addition / subtraction processing can be performed on the cumulative power consumption for each period.

そして、各期毎に算出された時間帯別の電力消費量に対して、更に所定の補正処理を行うことで例えば月別平日休日別の時間帯別電力消費量を算出することができる。具体的には、前記方法で算出された時間帯別の電力消費量を夫々各期で代表される月（中間期は４月、夏期は８月、冬期は２月）の平日の時間帯別電力消費量に相当するものとし、前記代表月の平日の時間帯別電力消費量に対して予め定められた補正係数を乗じることで、更に同一期における異なる月及び休日の時間帯別電力消費量を算出する構成としても良い。又、更に詳細な補正処理を行うことで、日毎の時間帯別電力消費量を算出するものとしても良い。   Then, by performing a predetermined correction process on the power consumption for each time zone calculated for each period, for example, the power consumption for each time zone for each weekday holiday on a monthly basis can be calculated. Specifically, the power consumption by time zone calculated by the above method is represented by the weekday time zone of the month (April for the interim period, August for the summer, and February for the winter) represented in each period. It corresponds to the power consumption, and by multiplying the power consumption by weekday of the representative month by a predetermined correction factor, the power consumption by time of different month and holiday in the same period It is good also as a structure which calculates. Moreover, it is good also as what calculates the power consumption according to the time slot | zone for every day by performing a further detailed correction process.

又、別の方法としては、例えば、回帰式に前記第２情報（Ｎ，Ｘ，Ｓ）を代入することで前記特徴時間帯毎の消費電力量を算出した後、補間処理を行うことで算出される各期毎の時間帯別電力消費量が、夫々各期で代表される月（中間期は４月、夏期は８月、冬期は２月）の平日の電力消費量に相当するものとし、更に同一期における異なる月及び休日の時間帯別電力消費量を、前記代表月の平日の時間帯別電力消費量に対して予め定められた補正係数を乗じることで算出するものとしても良い。このような構成とするとき、第２情報に基づいて算出される典型的な時間帯毎の電力消費量が、月別且つ平日休日別に算出される。   As another method, for example, by calculating the power consumption for each feature time zone by substituting the second information (N, X, S) into the regression equation, the calculation is performed by performing interpolation processing. The power consumption by time period for each period is equivalent to the power consumption on weekdays in the months represented by each period (April for the interim period, August for the summer, and February for the winter). Further, the power consumption by time zone of different months and holidays in the same period may be calculated by multiplying the power consumption by time zone of weekdays of the representative month by a predetermined correction coefficient. With such a configuration, a typical power consumption for each time period calculated based on the second information is calculated for each month and each weekday holiday.

そして、この月別平日休日別に算出された時間帯毎の電力消費量を累計することで、月別、平日休日別の累計電力消費量が算出される。この後、第３情報から得られる年間の購入電力量を月別平日休日別の前記累計電力消費量の比率で配分することで、想定電力消費量に基づく月別平日休日別の電力消費量が算出される。そして、各月別、平日休日別に、第２情報に基づく累計電力消費量と想定電力量に基づく累計電力消費量の差分値を算出し、その差分量を予め定められているバラツキ程度に応じて按分することで、補正処理を行う。この場合は、予め多数の家庭における各時間帯毎の電力消費量データに基づいて算出された各月別、平日休日別の時間帯毎の標準偏差が記憶手段に記録されており、当該標準偏差の割合に応じて各期毎の累計電力消費量に加減処理を行うものとすることができる。   Then, the cumulative power consumption for each month and weekday holiday is calculated by accumulating the power consumption for each time zone calculated for each weekday holiday for each month. After that, by allocating the annual purchased power amount obtained from the third information in the ratio of the cumulative power consumption by month and weekday holiday, the power consumption by month and weekday holiday based on the assumed power consumption is calculated. The Then, for each month and weekday holiday, a difference value between the cumulative power consumption based on the second information and the cumulative power consumption based on the assumed power consumption is calculated, and the difference amount is prorated according to a predetermined variation degree. Thus, the correction process is performed. In this case, the standard deviation for each time period for each month and weekday holiday calculated based on the power consumption data for each time period in a large number of households is recorded in the storage means, and the standard deviation of the standard deviation is recorded. Depending on the ratio, the cumulative power consumption for each period can be adjusted.

自家電力消費量推定手段１４は、入力された第３情報、時間帯別発電量推定手段１２によって算出された単位推定発電量、及び時間帯別電力消費量推定手段１３によって算出された単位推定電力消費量に基づいて、太陽光発電設備で発電された発電量の内、自家消費として用いられた電力量（以下、「推定自家電力消費量」と称する）を算出する。   The private power consumption estimation unit 14 is configured to input the third information, the unit estimated power generation amount calculated by the hourly power generation amount estimation unit 12, and the unit estimation power calculated by the hourly power consumption estimation unit 13. Based on the amount of consumption, the amount of power used as private consumption (hereinafter referred to as “estimated private power consumption”) among the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility is calculated.

具体的には、時間帯別に夫々算出されている単位推定発電量と単位推定電力消費量とを重ね合わせることで、発電が行われている時間帯における単位推定発電量を、自家電力消費量と売電量（太陽光発電設備で発電された発電量の内、電力会社によって買い取られた電力量）とに分割する。   Specifically, by superimposing the unit estimated power generation and unit estimated power consumption calculated for each time period, the unit estimated power generation in the time period during which power generation is performed is converted to the private power consumption. Divided into the amount of electricity sold (the amount of electricity purchased by the power company out of the amount of electricity generated by the solar power generation facility).

図２は、同一期間（月、平日／休日）における単位推定発電量と単位推定電力消費量とを重ね合わせた状態を示す図である。単位推定発電量を左上がりの斜線、単位推定電力消費量を右上がりの斜線で示している。又、両者が重なっている箇所においては、左上がりの斜線と右上がりの斜線が交差したクロス斜線で網掛けを行っている。   FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a state in which the unit estimated power generation amount and the unit estimated power consumption amount in the same period (month, weekday / holiday) are overlapped. The unit estimated power generation amount is indicated by a left-upward oblique line, and the unit estimated power consumption amount is indicated by a right-upward oblique line. In addition, in a portion where both overlap, shading is performed with a cross diagonal line in which a diagonal line rising left and a diagonal line rising right cross.

例えば６時から７時までの１時間においては、単位推定電力消費量が単位推定発電量を上回っているため、図面上では、所定値以上の領域において左上がりの斜線の網掛けが施され、所定値以下の領域において左上がりの斜線と右上がりの斜線とが交差したクロス斜線の網掛けが施されている。この図を参照することで、同時間帯においては、発電された電力量は全て自己消費に用いられ、更に不足分を電力会社から購入した電力量で賄っていることが分かる。又、１２時から１３時までの１時間においては、単位推定発電量が単位推定電力消費量を上回っており、消費電力が全て発電電力によって賄われ、更に余剰分が電力会社に売電されていることが分かる。   For example, in one hour from 6 o'clock to 7 o'clock, the unit estimated power consumption exceeds the unit estimated power generation amount, so in the drawing, a shaded area with an upward left slanting is applied in an area of a predetermined value or more. In an area of a predetermined value or less, crossed diagonal lines in which an upward diagonal line and an upward diagonal line intersect each other are shaded. Referring to this figure, it can be seen that in the same time period, all the generated electric power is used for self-consumption, and the shortage is covered by the electric power purchased from the electric power company. Moreover, in 1 hour from 12:00 to 13:00, the unit estimated power generation amount exceeds the unit estimated power consumption amount, all the power consumption is covered by the generated power, and the surplus is sold to the power company. I understand that.

即ち、同一期間内の単位推定発電量と単位推定電力消費量とを重ね合わせ、単位推定発電量から単位推定電力消費量を差し引いて差分値を算出し、当該算出結果が０又は正値であれば（前述の例でいえば１２時から１３時までの１時間に相当）、消費電力量が全て太陽光発電設備によって発電された電力量で賄われていると言えるため、単位推定電力消費量を同時間帯に係る自家電力消費量（以下、「単位推定自家電力消費量」と称する）とする。又、前記算出結果が負値であれば（前述の例でいえば６時から７時までの１時間に相当）、発電電力量は全て自家消費用途として用いられていると言えるため、単位推定発電量を単位推定自家電力消費量とする。かかる演算を全ての期間（月、平日／休日）について各時間帯毎に行い、算出された各単位推定自家電力消費量を累計することで、前記推定自家電力消費量を算出する。自家電力消費量推定手段１４は、このようにして得られた推定自家電力消費量を補正手段１５に与える。   That is, the unit estimated power generation amount and the unit estimated power consumption amount in the same period are overlapped, and the difference value is calculated by subtracting the unit estimated power consumption amount from the unit estimated power generation amount, and the calculation result is 0 or a positive value. (Equivalent to 1 hour from 12:00 to 13:00 in the above example), it can be said that all of the power consumption is covered by the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation equipment. Is the private power consumption for the same time zone (hereinafter referred to as “unit estimated private power consumption”). Further, if the calculation result is a negative value (corresponding to one hour from 6 o'clock to 7 o'clock in the above example), it can be said that all of the generated power is used for private consumption, so unit estimation The amount of power generation is the unit estimated private power consumption. This calculation is performed for each time period for all periods (months, weekdays / holidays), and the calculated unit estimated private power consumption is accumulated to calculate the estimated private power consumption. The private power consumption estimation means 14 gives the estimated private power consumption thus obtained to the correction means 15.

補正手段１５は、想定電力消費量から推定自家電力消費量を差し引いた推定購入電力量と、前記第３情報から得られる購入電力量の差分値に基づいて、補正処理を行うか否かの判断を行う。   The correction unit 15 determines whether to perform correction processing based on a difference value between the estimated purchased power amount obtained by subtracting the estimated private power consumption amount from the assumed power consumption amount and the purchased power amount obtained from the third information. I do.

太陽光発電設備を有する電力消費者が、消費用途として電力会社から実際に購入した購入電力量は、電力消費者の総消費電力量から太陽光発電によって賄われた自家消費電力量を差し引くことで算出される。ここで、購入電力量は、第３情報に基づいて認識することができる値である。そして、前記の方法で算出された推定自家電力消費量は、電力消費者の総消費電力量を前記「想定電力消費量」とした場合に推定される自家電力消費量に相当する。つまり、想定電力消費量が総消費電力量に近い値として想定されていた場合には、想定電力消費量から「当該想定電力消費量に基づいて導かれた推定自家消費電力量」を差し引くと、第３情報から導かれた購入電力量に近似する値が得られることとなる。逆に言えば、想定電力消費量から推定自家消費電力量を差し引いた値、即ち推定購入電力量が、第３情報から導かれた購入電力量の値から大きく乖離している場合には、「想定電力消費量」が実際に電力消費者が消費した総消費電力量から乖離していることを表している。このため、かかる場合には、想定電力消費量を実際の総消費電力量に近づけるための補正処理が必要となる。補正手段１５は、この想定電力消費量が実際に電力消費者が消費した総消費電力量から乖離しているか否かの判断を行うものである。   The amount of power purchased by power consumers who have solar power generation facilities from a power company for consumption is calculated by subtracting the amount of power consumed by solar power from the total power consumption of the power consumers. Calculated. Here, the purchased power amount is a value that can be recognized based on the third information. The estimated self-power consumption calculated by the above method corresponds to the self-power consumption estimated when the total power consumption of the power consumer is the “assumed power consumption”. In other words, if the assumed power consumption is assumed to be a value close to the total power consumption, subtracting the "estimated private power consumption derived based on the assumed power consumption" from the assumed power consumption, A value approximating the purchased power amount derived from the third information will be obtained. In other words, if the estimated power consumption minus the estimated private power consumption, that is, the estimated purchased power is greatly deviated from the purchased power derived from the third information, The “assumed power consumption” indicates that the power consumption actually deviates from the total power consumption. For this reason, in such a case, correction processing is required to bring the assumed power consumption closer to the actual total power consumption. The correcting unit 15 determines whether or not the assumed power consumption is deviated from the total power consumption actually consumed by the power consumer.

具体的には、推定購入電力量と、第３情報から導かれた購入電力量との差分の絶対値が所定の基準値（例えば１０ｋＷｈ）以下であるかどうかの判断を行う。そして、前記差分の絶対値が基準値以下である場合には、補正処理を行わないものとし、自家電力消費量推定手段１４によって推定された推定自家電力消費量を、電力消費者が備える太陽光発電設備によって発電された電力によって実際に消費が賄われた自家電力消費量として出力手段１６より出力する。一方、前記差分の絶対値が基準値を超える場合には、補正手段１５は、この推定自家電力消費量を補正値として時間帯別電力消費量推定手段１３に与える。   Specifically, it is determined whether the absolute value of the difference between the estimated purchased power amount and the purchased power amount derived from the third information is equal to or less than a predetermined reference value (for example, 10 kWh). Then, when the absolute value of the difference is equal to or less than the reference value, correction processing is not performed, and the power consumer has the estimated private power consumption estimated by the private power consumption estimation means 14. Output from the output means 16 as private power consumption actually consumed by the power generated by the power generation facility. On the other hand, when the absolute value of the difference exceeds the reference value, the correction unit 15 gives the estimated private power consumption amount to the hourly power consumption estimation unit 13 as a correction value.

時間帯別電力消費量推定手段１３は、補正手段１５から補正値が与えられると、同補正値を、直前に当該電力消費量推定手段１３によって単位推定電力消費量を算出する際に用いた想定電力消費量（ここでは、第３情報から導かれる年間の購入電力量に相当）に加算した値を新たな想定電力消費量とし、同様の方法で、再び単位推定電力消費量を算出する。そして、改めて算出された新たな単位推定電力消費量に基づいて、自家電力消費量推定手段１４が同様の方法で再び推定自家電力消費量を算出する。そして、算出された推定自家電力消費量が補正手段１５に与えられ、想定電力消費量から推定自家電力消費量を差し引いた推定購入電力量と、前記第３情報から得られる前記購入電力量の差分の絶対値が所定の基準値以下であるかどうかの判断を行う。尚、ここでいう「想定電力消費量」とは、直前の推定自家電力消費量を算出するに際して用いられた補正後の想定電力消費量を指す。   When the correction value is given from the correction unit 15, the hourly power consumption estimation unit 13 assumes that the correction value is used when the unit estimated power consumption is calculated by the power consumption estimation unit 13 immediately before. A value added to the power consumption (here, equivalent to the annual purchased power derived from the third information) is set as a new assumed power consumption, and the unit estimated power consumption is calculated again by the same method. Then, based on the new unit estimated power consumption calculated anew, the private power consumption estimation means 14 calculates the estimated private power consumption again by the same method. Then, the calculated estimated private power consumption is given to the correction means 15, and the difference between the estimated purchased power obtained by subtracting the estimated private power consumption from the assumed power consumption and the purchased power obtained from the third information. It is determined whether the absolute value of is less than or equal to a predetermined reference value. The “assumed power consumption” here refers to the corrected assumed power consumption used when calculating the immediately preceding estimated private power consumption.

つまり、補正手段１５によって、推定購入電力量と購入電力量の差分の絶対値が所定の基準値以下であると判断されるまでの間、補正手段１５から与えられる補正値によって補正された新たな想定電力消費量に基づいて、時間帯別電力消費量推定手段１３が単位推定電力消費量を算出し、自家電力消費量推定手段１４が推定自家電力消費量を算出する。そして、推定購入電力量と購入電力量の差分の絶対値が所定の基準値以下であると初めて判断された時点において、その直前の段階で自家電力消費量推定手段１４によって算出された推定自家電力消費量を、電力消費者が備える太陽光発電設備によって発電された電力によって実際に消費が賄われた自家電力消費量とし、出力手段１６から出力する。出力手段１６は、情報出力用インタェースであり、例えばディスプレイ等の表示装置、プリンタ、或いは電気通信回線を介して情報の出力を行う情報送信手段で構成される。   That is, until the absolute value of the difference between the estimated purchased electric energy and the purchased electric energy is determined to be equal to or less than a predetermined reference value by the correcting unit 15, a new value corrected by the correction value given from the correcting unit 15 is used. Based on the assumed power consumption, the hourly power consumption estimation means 13 calculates the unit estimated power consumption, and the private power consumption estimation means 14 calculates the estimated private power consumption. Then, when it is first determined that the absolute value of the difference between the estimated purchased power amount and the purchased power amount is equal to or less than a predetermined reference value, the estimated private power calculated by the private power consumption estimating unit 14 immediately before that is determined. The consumption amount is set as the private power consumption amount actually consumed by the power generated by the solar power generation facility provided to the power consumer, and is output from the output means 16. The output unit 16 is an information output interface, and includes, for example, a display device such as a display, a printer, or an information transmission unit that outputs information via a telecommunication line.

このように補正手段１５から与えられた補正値を用いて時間帯別電力消費量推定手段１３が改めて単位推定電力消費量を算出し、この算出結果に基づいて自家電力消費量推定手段１４が改めて推定自家電力消費量を算出し、再び補正手段１５によって補正処理の要否判定を行う構成とすることで、手段１５、１３、及び１４によって行われる演算処理ループが一又は複数回行われ、購入電力量と推定購入電力量の乖離を小さくすることができる。購入電力量と推定購入電力量の乖離が小さくなるということは、推定購入電力量の導出根拠となる想定電力消費量が実際に電力消費者によって消費された総消費電力量に近付いたことを表すこととなる。   As described above, the power consumption estimation unit 13 for each time period calculates the unit estimated power consumption again using the correction value given from the correction unit 15, and the private power consumption estimation unit 14 again calculates based on the calculation result. By calculating the estimated private power consumption and determining whether the correction processing is necessary again by the correction means 15, the calculation processing loop performed by the means 15, 13, and 14 is performed one or more times, and the purchase is made. The difference between the electric energy and the estimated purchased electric energy can be reduced. The smaller divergence between the purchased power amount and the estimated purchased power amount means that the assumed power consumption, which is the basis for deriving the estimated purchased power amount, has approached the total consumed power actually consumed by the power consumer. It will be.

図３は、補正処理を行うことによる単位推定自家電力消費量の変化を示す図である。図３（ａ）〜（ｃ）は、何れも同一期間内（例えば８月平日とする）の単位推定発電量と単位推定電力消費量とを重ね合わせたときの状態を示したものであり、（ａ）〜（ｃ）は夫々第１回目〜第３回目の演算における状態を示している。即ち、（ａ）は、想定電力消費量を「購入電力量」として演算を行った場合の状態であり、（ｂ）は、（ａ）で示される演算によって得られた推定自家電力消費量を加算して得られる値を新たな想定電力消費量として演算を行った場合の状態であり、（ｃ）は、更に（ｂ）で示される演算によって得られた推定自家電力消費量を加算して得られる値を新たな想定電力消費量として演算を行った場合の状態である。尚、図２と同様、単位推定発電量を左上がりの斜線、単位推定電力消費量を右上がりの斜線で示している。又、図３（ｄ）は、図３（ａ）〜（ｃ）を一のグラフにまとめて図示したものである。   FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating a change in the unit estimated private power consumption due to the correction processing. FIGS. 3A to 3C show states when the unit estimated power generation amount and the unit estimated power consumption amount in the same period (for example, August weekday) are superimposed, (A)-(c) has shown the state in the 1st-3rd calculation, respectively. That is, (a) is the state when the assumed power consumption is calculated as “purchased power”, and (b) is the estimated private power consumption obtained by the calculation shown in (a). This is the state when the value obtained by addition is calculated as a new assumed power consumption, and (c) further adds the estimated private power consumption obtained by the calculation shown in (b). This is a state when the obtained value is calculated as a new assumed power consumption. As in FIG. 2, the unit estimated power generation amount is indicated by a left-upward oblique line, and the unit estimated power consumption is indicated by a right-upward oblique line. FIG. 3 (d) shows FIGS. 3 (a) to 3 (c) together in one graph.

図３によれば、同一期間であるため単位推定発電量の値は各図間で全て同一の値を示す一方、補正処理が行われることで単位推定電力消費量は各図間で異なる値を示す。より詳細には、補正によって、直前の演算で得られた推定自家電力消費量が加算された新たな想定電力消費量に基づいて単位推定電力消費量が算出されているため、補正の回数を重ねるに連れて単位推定電力消費量の高さが上昇していることが分かる。言い換えれば、この補正によって、想定電力消費量、並びに単位推定自家電力消費量から導かれれる推定自家電力消費量の両者の値が少しずつ増加され（図３（ｄ）参照）、推定購入電力量を購入電力量に近づける補正が行われる。そして、推定購入電力量と、第３情報から導かれた購入電力量との差分の絶対値が所定の基準値以下になった時点で、推定購入電力量が購入電力量に近い値を示していることとなるため、この時点で算出されている推定自家電力消費量を、電力消費者が備える太陽光発電設備によって発電された電力によって実際に消費が賄われた自家電力消費量とすることで、実際の自家電力消費量に近い推定自家電力消費量を算出することができる。   According to FIG. 3, since the unit estimated power generation value is the same for each figure because it is the same period, the unit estimated power consumption is different for each figure by performing the correction process. Show. More specifically, since the unit estimated power consumption is calculated based on the new assumed power consumption obtained by adding the estimated private power consumption obtained in the immediately preceding calculation by the correction, the number of corrections is repeated. It can be seen that the height of the unit estimated power consumption is increasing. In other words, by this correction, both the estimated power consumption and the estimated private power consumption derived from the unit estimated private power consumption are gradually increased (see FIG. 3D), and the estimated purchased power consumption is increased. Is corrected to approach the purchased power amount. Then, when the absolute value of the difference between the estimated purchased power amount and the purchased power amount derived from the third information is equal to or less than a predetermined reference value, the estimated purchased power amount indicates a value close to the purchased power amount. Therefore, the estimated self-power consumption calculated at this point is the self-power consumption that is actually covered by the power generated by the solar power generation equipment provided by the power consumer. The estimated private power consumption close to the actual private power consumption can be calculated.

このように、本発明システムによれば、容易に取得可能な情報である、太陽光発電設備の属性に関する第１情報、電力消費者の電力消費傾向に関する第２情報、並びに電力消費者の購入電力量又は購入電力費用に関する第３情報の各情報を入力することのみで、所定の演算対象期間において太陽光発電設備によって発電された電力量の内、自家消費に用いられた自家電力消費量を認識することができる。これにより、太陽光発電設備を備える電力消費者に対しても、前記演算対象期間内に実際に消費した総電力消費量を推定することができる。又、電力会社に売電された売電量も併せて認識することができると共に、自家電力消費量並びに売電量も時間帯別に推定することができるため、同電力消費者に対して省エネルギ行動の指針としての利用価値の高い情報を提示することが可能となる。   As described above, according to the system of the present invention, the first information regarding the attributes of the photovoltaic power generation facility, the second information regarding the power consumption tendency of the power consumer, and the purchased power of the power consumer, which are easily obtainable information Recognize the amount of private power consumption used for private consumption out of the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility during the predetermined calculation target period by simply entering each piece of information on the amount or the third information related to the purchased power cost can do. Thereby, the total electric power consumption actually consumed within the said calculation object period can be estimated also to the electric power consumer provided with photovoltaic power generation equipment. In addition, the amount of power sold to the power company can be recognized together, and the amount of private power consumption and the amount of power sold can be estimated according to the time of day. It is possible to present highly valuable information as a guideline.

以下に別実施形態につき説明する。   Another embodiment will be described below.

〈１〉 上記実施形態では、補正手段が、推定購入電力量と前記第３情報から導かれた購入電力量との差分の絶対値が所定の基準値以下であるか否かで判断するものとしたが、当該電力量に対応する電気料金で比較をするものとしても良い。即ち、補正手段が、推定購入電力量に相当する電気料金と、前記第３情報から導かれた購入電力料金との差分の絶対値が所定の基準値（例えば１００円）以下である場合には、補正処理を行わないものとし、基準値を超える場合には、補正手段１５が補正値を時間帯帯別電力消費量推定手段１３に与えるものとしても良い。   <1> In the above embodiment, the correcting means determines whether or not the absolute value of the difference between the estimated purchased power amount and the purchased power amount derived from the third information is equal to or less than a predetermined reference value. However, it is good also as what compares with the electricity bill corresponding to the said electric energy. In other words, when the correcting means has an absolute value of the difference between the electricity charge corresponding to the estimated purchase electricity amount and the purchase electricity charge derived from the third information equal to or less than a predetermined reference value (for example, 100 yen). The correction process is not performed, and when the reference value is exceeded, the correction unit 15 may supply the correction value to the power consumption estimation unit 13 for each time zone.

〈２〉 電力消費者によっては、電力会社に対して売電された電力量に相当する料金が電力会社から定期的に振り込まれ、通帳等に記録されている場合がある。かかる場合、本発明システムの推定精度を向上させるべく、情報入力受付手段１１が、演算対象期間に係る売電電力量又は売電費用に関する情報（以下、「第４情報」と称する）の入力を受け付ける構成とすることもできる。   <2> Depending on the power consumer, a charge corresponding to the amount of power sold to the power company may be regularly transferred from the power company and recorded in a passbook or the like. In such a case, in order to improve the estimation accuracy of the system of the present invention, the information input accepting unit 11 accepts input of information related to the amount of power sold or the power selling cost related to the calculation target period (hereinafter referred to as “fourth information”). It can also be configured.

一般的に、電力消費者が第４情報を認識可能である場合、この第４情報は、月毎又は年毎に認識可能な情報であることが多い。このため、年間の電力消費者の売電量を第４情報から認識することができる。このとき、自家電力消費量推定手段１４が、第３情報、単位推定発電量、単位推定電力消費量に加えて、第４情報に基づいて推定自家電力消費量を算出する構成とすることができる。   Generally, when the power consumer can recognize the fourth information, the fourth information is often information that can be recognized monthly or yearly. For this reason, it is possible to recognize the annual amount of power sold by the power consumer from the fourth information. At this time, in addition to the third information, the unit estimated power generation amount, and the unit estimated power consumption amount, the private power consumption estimation unit 14 can calculate the estimated private power consumption amount based on the fourth information. .

具体的には、例えば前述のように同一期間内の単位推定発電量と単位推定電力消費量とを重ね合わせ、単位推定発電量から単位推定電力消費量を差し引いて差分値を算出する。このとき、当該算出結果が正値である場合、（図２の例でいえば１２時から１３時までの１時間に相当）、消費電力量は全て太陽光発電設備によって発電された電力量で賄われていると共に、更に余剰分が電力会社に買い取られていることが分かる。このように、全演算対象期間（１年間）に亘って、単位推定発電量から単位推定電力消費量を差し引いた差分値が正値となる時間帯（以下、「売電発生時間帯」と称する）を抽出し、これらの差分値の合計を算出する。そして、この合計値と第４情報から得られる売電電力量との差分を計算し、その差分を各売電発生時間帯に配分する。   Specifically, for example, as described above, the unit estimated power generation amount and the unit estimated power consumption amount in the same period are overlapped, and the difference value is calculated by subtracting the unit estimated power consumption amount from the unit estimated power generation amount. At this time, if the calculation result is a positive value (corresponding to one hour from 12:00 to 13:00 in the example of FIG. 2), the power consumption is all the power generated by the photovoltaic power generation facility. It is understood that the surplus is being purchased by the electric power company. As described above, over the entire calculation target period (one year), the difference value obtained by subtracting the unit estimated power consumption from the unit estimated power generation amount becomes a positive value (hereinafter referred to as “power sale occurrence time zone”). ) And the sum of these difference values is calculated. Then, a difference between the total value and the amount of electric power sold obtained from the fourth information is calculated, and the difference is distributed to each power sale occurrence time zone.

売電発生時間帯に係る単位推定発電量から単位推定電力消費量を差し引いた差分値の合計は年間に電力会社に買い取られた推定売電量に相当する。このため、第４情報から得られる売電電力量と、前記推定売電量との差分が小さいほど、前記推定売電量の推定結果が正しいと言え、このことは、推定自家電力消費量の推定精度が高いことを意味する。   The sum of the difference values obtained by subtracting the unit estimated power consumption from the unit estimated power generation amount related to the power sale occurrence time period corresponds to the estimated power sale amount purchased by the power company during the year. For this reason, it can be said that the estimation result of the estimated power sale amount is more correct as the difference between the power sale power amount obtained from the fourth information and the estimated power sale amount is smaller. This indicates that the estimation accuracy of the estimated private power consumption is higher. Means high.

尚、具体的な配分方法としては、単位推定発電量から単位推定電力消費量を差し引いた差分値の合計から前記第４情報から得られる売電電力量を差し引いた差分値を、抽出された売電発生時間帯毎の売電量の比率に応じて比例配分するものとして良い。そして、これによって算出された単位時間帯毎の売電量を、単位推定発電量から差し引くことで新たな「単位推定自家電力消費量」とすることができる。このようにして得られた単位推定自家電力消費量を、各時間帯毎に累計することで推定自家電力消費量を算出し、補正手段１５に与える構成とすることができる。   As a specific distribution method, the difference value obtained by subtracting the power sale power amount obtained from the fourth information from the sum of the difference values obtained by subtracting the unit estimated power consumption amount from the unit estimated power generation amount is used as the extracted power sale amount. Proportional distribution may be performed according to the ratio of the amount of power sold for each generation time period. Then, a new “unit estimated private power consumption amount” can be obtained by subtracting the power sales amount calculated for each unit time zone from the unit estimated power generation amount. The unit estimated private power consumption obtained in this manner is accumulated for each time period, whereby the estimated private power consumption is calculated and provided to the correction means 15.

〈３〉 上述の実施形態では、時間帯別電力消費量推定手段１３が、入力された第２情報（Ｎ，Ｘ，Ｓ）を回帰式に代入することで特徴時間帯毎の消費電力量を算出した後、補間処理及び補正処理を行うことで、電力消費者の消費傾向に合った典型的な時間帯毎の電力消費量を算出するものとしたが、この方法はあくまで一例である。つまり、入力された電力消費者の消費傾向を示す情報に基づいて、当該情報が示す消費傾向に合った典型的な時間帯毎の電力消費量を算出する構成であれば、上記方法に限られるものではない。   <3> In the above-described embodiment, the power consumption estimation unit 13 for each time period calculates the power consumption for each characteristic time period by substituting the input second information (N, X, S) into the regression equation. After the calculation, the interpolation process and the correction process are performed to calculate the power consumption for each typical time zone that matches the consumption trend of the power consumer. However, this method is merely an example. In other words, the method is limited to the above method as long as it is configured to calculate the power consumption for each typical time zone that matches the consumption trend indicated by the information based on the input information indicating the consumption trend of the power consumer. It is not a thing.

本発明に係る電力消費量推定システムの概略構成を示すブロック図The block diagram which shows schematic structure of the power consumption estimation system which concerns on this invention 同一期間（月、平日／休日）における単位推定発電量と単位推定電力消費量とを重ね合わせた状態を示す図The figure which shows the state which overlapped the unit estimated power generation amount and the unit estimated power consumption amount in the same period (month, weekday / holiday) 補正処理を行うことによる単位推定自家電力消費量の変化を示す図The figure which shows the change of the unit estimation private electric power consumption by performing correction processing 従来のエネルギ需要の推定手法で使用される行動スケジュール表の一例を示す説明図Explanatory drawing which shows an example of the action schedule table used with the estimation method of the conventional energy demand 従来のエネルギ需要の推定手法で使用されるエネルギ消費機器の登録データの一例を示す説明図Explanatory drawing which shows an example of the registration data of the energy consumption apparatus used with the estimation method of the conventional energy demand 太陽光発電設備を備える電力消費者の電力消費量を説明するための模式図Schematic diagram for explaining the power consumption of power consumers with solar power generation facilities

符号の説明Explanation of symbols

１： 本発明に係る電力消費量推定システム
１１： 情報入力受付手段
１２： 時間帯別発電量推定手段
１３： 時間帯別電力消費量推定手段
１４： 自家電力消費量推定手段
１５： 補正手段
１６： 出力手段 1: Power consumption estimation system according to the present invention 11: Information input receiving means 12: Power generation amount estimation means by time zone 13: Power consumption estimation means by time zone 14: Private power consumption estimation means 15: Correction means 16: Output means

Claims (4)

太陽光発電設備を備える電力消費者の太陽光発電量の内の自家電力消費量を推定する電力消費量推定システムであって、
前記太陽光発電設備の属性に関する第１情報、前記電力消費者の電力消費傾向に関する第２情報、及び所定の演算対象期間内における前記電力消費者の購入電力量又は購入電力費用に関する第３情報の入力を受け付ける情報入力受付手段と、
前記第１情報に基づいて、前記演算対象期間内における前記発電量を所定の第１単位時間帯毎に推定し、単位推定発電量を算出する時間帯別発電量推定手段と、
前記演算対象期間内における前記電力消費者の実際の電力消費量である実質電力消費量を所定の方法で想定した想定電力消費量に関する情報、前記第２情報、及び前記第３情報に基づいて、前記演算対象期間内における電力消費量を前記第１単位時間帯毎に推定し、単位推定電力消費量を算出する時間帯別電力消費量推定手段と、
前記単位推定発電量、前記単位推定電力消費量、及び前記第３情報から得られた前記購入電力量に基づいて、前記発電量の内の自家消費として用いられた推定自家電力消費量を算出する自家電力消費量推定手段と、
前記想定電力消費量及び前記推定自家電力消費量に基づいて、前記想定電力消費量を前記実質電力消費量に近づけるための補正処理を行う補正手段と、を備え、
前記時間帯別電力消費量推定手段が、
前記補正手段による補正処理前の段階では、前記購入電力量を前記想定電力消費量とする一方、補正処理後の段階では、前記補正手段から与えられる補正値を直前の前記単位推定電力消費量算出時に用いた前記想定電力消費量に加算した値を前記想定電力消費量として前記単位推定電力消費量の算出を行い、
前記自家電力消費量推定手段が、
前記単位推定発電量と前記単位推定電力消費量の差分値に基づいて、前記単位推定発電量に占める前記第１単位時間帯毎の自家電力消費量を推定して単位推定自家電力消費量を算出すると共に、前記各単位推定自家電力消費量を前記演算対象期間内に亘って累計することで前記推定自家電力消費量を算出し、
前記補正手段が、
前記想定電力消費量から前記推定自家電力消費量を差し引いた推定購入電力量と、前記第３情報から得られる前記購入電力量の差分値に基づいて、前記補正値を算出して前記時間帯別電力消費量推定手段に与えて再度演算処理を行わせるか、又は直前に算出された前記推定自家電力消費量を前記自家電力消費量と決定するかの判断を行うことを特徴とする電力消費量推定システム。 A power consumption estimation system that estimates a self-power consumption amount of a solar power generation amount of a power consumer equipped with a solar power generation facility,
First information on the attribute of the photovoltaic power generation facility, second information on the power consumption tendency of the power consumer, and third information on the purchased power amount or purchased power cost of the power consumer within a predetermined calculation target period An information input receiving means for receiving an input;
Based on the first information, the power generation amount within the calculation target period is estimated for each predetermined first unit time zone, and a power generation amount estimation unit for each time zone that calculates a unit estimated power generation amount;
Based on the information on the assumed power consumption in which the actual power consumption that is the actual power consumption of the power consumer within the calculation target period is assumed by a predetermined method, the second information, and the third information, A power consumption estimation unit for each time zone that estimates the power consumption amount in the calculation target period for each of the first unit time zones, and calculates a unit estimated power consumption amount;
Based on the unit estimated power generation amount, the unit estimated power consumption amount, and the purchased power amount obtained from the third information, an estimated private power consumption amount used as private consumption of the power generation amount is calculated. Self-power consumption estimation means;
Correction means for performing a correction process for bringing the assumed power consumption closer to the actual power consumption based on the assumed power consumption and the estimated private power consumption;
The hourly power consumption estimation means is
In the stage before the correction process by the correction means, the purchased power amount is set as the assumed power consumption, while in the stage after the correction process, the correction value given from the correction means is calculated as the immediately preceding unit estimated power consumption calculation. The unit estimated power consumption is calculated using the value added to the assumed power consumption used at the time as the assumed power consumption,
The private power consumption estimation means is
Based on the difference value between the unit estimated power generation amount and the unit estimated power consumption amount, the unit estimated self power consumption amount is calculated by estimating the self power consumption amount for each of the first unit time periods in the unit estimated power generation amount. And calculating the estimated private power consumption by accumulating the unit estimated private power consumption over the calculation target period,
The correction means is
Based on the difference between the estimated purchased power amount obtained by subtracting the estimated private power consumption amount from the assumed power consumption amount and the purchased power amount obtained from the third information, the correction value is calculated and the time period is calculated. The power consumption amount is characterized in that it is given to the power consumption amount estimation means to perform the calculation process again or whether the estimated private power consumption amount calculated immediately before is determined as the private power consumption amount. Estimation system. 前記自家電力消費量推定手段が、
前記第１単位時間帯毎に前記単位推定発電量から前記単位推定電力消費量を差し引いて差分値を算出し、当該算出結果が０又は正値であれば、前記単位推定電力消費量を前記単位推定自家電力消費量とする一方、負値であれば前記単位推定発電量を前記単位推定自家電力消費量とし、得られた前記各単位推定自家電力消費量を前記演算対象期間内に亘って累計することを特徴とする請求項１に記載の電力消費量推定システム。 The private power consumption estimation means is
The unit estimated power consumption is subtracted from the unit estimated power generation amount for each first unit time zone to calculate a difference value. If the calculation result is 0 or a positive value, the unit estimated power consumption is calculated as the unit. While the estimated self-power consumption is a negative value, the unit-estimated power generation amount is the unit-estimated self-power consumption if it is a negative value, and the obtained unit estimated self-power consumption is accumulated over the calculation target period. The power consumption estimation system according to claim 1, wherein: 前記時間帯別電力消費量推定手段が、
前記第２情報を変数とする回帰式に基づいて前記第１単位時間帯毎の電力消費量を概算的に求出した単位概算電力消費量を前記演算期間に亘って累積することで概算電力消費量を算出し、
前記想定電力消費量と前記概算電力消費量の差分値を算出すると共に、当該差分値を所定の時間帯別又は用途別のバラツキ程度に応じて前記単位概算電力消費量に対して按分することで前記単位推定電力消費量を算出することを特徴とする請求項１又は２に記載の電力消費量推定システム。 The hourly power consumption estimation means is
Approximate power consumption by accumulating unit estimated power consumption over the calculation period, which is obtained roughly from the first unit time period based on a regression equation using the second information as a variable. Calculate the quantity,
By calculating a difference value between the estimated power consumption and the approximate power consumption, and by dividing the difference value with respect to the unit approximate power consumption according to the degree of variation for each predetermined time zone or application. The power consumption estimation system according to claim 1, wherein the unit estimated power consumption is calculated. 前記補正手段が、前記推定購入電力量と前記購入電力量の差分値を算出すると共に、当該算出結果の絶対値が基準値より大きければ、前記推定自家電力消費量を前記補正値として前記時間帯別電力消費量推定手段に与える一方、基準値以下であれば、直前に算出された前記推定自家電力消費量を前記演算期間内に亘る前記自家電力消費量とすることを特徴とする請求項１〜３の何れか１項に記載の電力消費量推定システム。   The correction means calculates a difference value between the estimated purchased power amount and the purchased power amount, and if the absolute value of the calculation result is larger than a reference value, the estimated private power consumption is used as the correction value in the time period. 2. While being given to another power consumption estimation means, if it is below a reference value, the estimated private power consumption calculated immediately before is used as the private power consumption over the calculation period. The power consumption estimation system according to any one of?
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