JP2009048453A - Disaster recovery process simulation device, disaster recovery process simulation method and disaster recovery process simulation program - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To beforehand and serially analyze works for recovering lifelines in a disaster, such as an earthquake and a typhoon. <P>SOLUTION: A local information storage part 120 stores local data 10. An electric power circulation facility information storage part 130 stores electric power circulation facility data 20. A commander simulation part 141, a patrolman simulation part 142, and a recovery person simulation part 143 refer to the local information storage part 120 and the electric power circulation facility information storage part 130, and simulate the works done by a commander, a patrolman, and a recovery person, respectively. The recovery person simulation part 143 simulates moving of the recovery person to a disaster place and command waiting from the commander. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2009,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a disaster recovery process simulation apparatus, a disaster recovery process simulation method, and a disaster recovery that sequentially simulates the process of recovery work plan deployment, recovery work plan planning and recovery work in the event of a wide-area disaster such as an earthquake or typhoon It relates to a process simulation program.

  In recent years, it has been pointed out that the risk of large-scale earthquakes is increasing (see, for example, Non-Patent Documents 1 and 2). In the event of a wide-area disaster such as an earthquake or typhoon, some damage is unavoidable to large-scale and distributed power distribution facilities. However, the importance of electric power as an industrial base or a living base is increasing (for example, see Non-Patent Document 3), and it is important to expedite wide area inspection / inspection and emergency recovery after a disaster.

  For this reason, technical development for speeding up recovery work after a disaster has been carried out. For example, Patent Document 1 describes a disaster recovery team formation support system that selects a worker based on a worker's qualification, experience, address, work status, and the like when a disaster occurs and supports the formation of a recovery team. .

JP 2006-215831 A Central Disaster Prevention Council “Meeting Committee for Earthquake Countermeasures Under the Capital”: Report of the Committee for Earthquake Countermeasures Under the Capital, July 2005 Central Disaster Prevention Council “Special Committee on Tokai Earthquake”: Report of the Special Committee on Tokai Earthquake, Central Disaster Prevention Council, December 2001 Japan Science and Technology Agency "Information and Society" R & D Area: Planned Research "Understanding and Resolving Vulnerabilities in Advanced Information Society" 2005 Results Report, March 2006

  In order to speed up emergency recovery work in the event of a disaster, it is necessary to analyze the details of the work during the recovery process and examine the possibility of speeding up. However, since recovery work is a one-time special work performed in response to a specific disaster and is a work under a special situation of a disaster, it is common to collect detailed work records over time. It is difficult. Therefore, there is a problem that it is difficult to follow the detailed time lapse of the work content after the completion of recovery and analyze how much time is required for each item.

  In addition, in the event of a disaster, it is unclear whether personnel can gather as expected, and the number and location of materials and equipment that can be used for recovery are also important. Therefore, there is a need for a framework that allows for an efficient recovery system and arrangement of materials and equipment according to the number of people that can be gathered before a disaster occurs.

  Furthermore, immediately after the disaster, the detailed damage situation of the power distribution equipment is unknown, and the restoration work must be started from the information collection stage of the equipment damage situation. In addition, equipment damage may be discovered as a result of detailed investigations and emergency restorations that cannot be detected by patrol. Under such circumstances, it is difficult to accurately estimate the target recovery time. On the other hand, estimating the recovery time as accurately as possible is important for formulating a work plan, and a method for that is needed. In order to predict such recovery time, the relationship between the recovery time and the number of damages in past disasters is functionalized by statistical processing, and the recovery time is estimated (for example, “real-time earthquakes targeting power distribution systems” Basic study on disaster prevention system ”, Research report of Central Research Institute of Electric Power, U99050 April 2000), but the actual recovery time and the predicted result were not very consistent.

  The present invention has been made to solve the above-described problems caused by the prior art, and is a disaster recovery process simulation apparatus and a disaster that enable an analysis of recovery work and an accurate estimation of recovery time over the conventional method in advance. An object is to provide a restoration process simulation method and a disaster restoration process simulation program.

  In order to solve the above-described problem, the invention according to claim 1 includes means for time prediction that has not been considered in the prior art. Specifically, worker simulation means for simulating a worker who performs work related to recovery in a disaster area, and recovery work information output means for outputting information on work performed by the worker simulated by the worker simulation means It is characterized by comprising.

  According to the first aspect of the present invention, the worker who performs the work related to the recovery in the disaster area is simulated, and the information related to the work performed by the simulated worker is output. Since it can be disassembled to the work level, the accuracy of the recovery time can be improved.

  Further, in the invention according to claim 2, in the above invention, the worker simulating means is a patrol person simulating means for simulating a patrol person who patrols the disaster area and collects disaster information, and moves the disaster area. A restoration person simulation means for simulating a restoration person who performs disaster area restoration work and collects disaster information, and the disaster information collected by the patrol person and restoration person simulated by the patrol person simulation means and the restoration person simulation means, respectively. Based on the multi-agent technique, a restoration plan is created based on the created restoration plan, and a commander simulation means for simulating a commander who issues an instruction to the patrol person and the restoration person based on the created restoration plan.

  According to the invention of claim 2, the patrol person who patrols the disaster area and collects the disaster information is simulated, the restoration person who moves to the disaster site and performs the recovery work of the disaster area and collects the disaster information is simulated. Since the recovery plan is created based on the disaster information collected by the simulated patrol person and the restoration person, and the commander who gives instructions to the inspection person and the restoration person is simulated based on the created restoration plan, It is possible to closely simulate the behavior of a worker who performs work related to recovery.

  The invention according to claim 3 is the above invention, wherein the restoration person simulation means simulates movement of the restoration person to the disaster site, and the restoration work information output means includes restoration time including movement time of the restoration person. Is output.

  According to the third aspect of the present invention, since the recovery person's movement to the disaster site is simulated and the recovery time including the recovery person's movement time is output, the recovery time prediction accuracy can be improved. .

  According to a fourth aspect of the present invention, in the above invention, the restoration person simulating means estimates the movable speed of a moving object on the road using the degree of road blockage due to building damage in the affected area as a variable, and the movable It is characterized by simulating the change of the moving speed in the disaster area of the recovery person using the speed.

  According to the fourth aspect of the present invention, the moving speed of the moving body on the road is estimated using the degree of road blockage due to the building damage in the damaged area as a variable, and the change in moving speed of the restoration person in the damaged area is simulated. Since it comprised, compared with the conventional method, a movement time can be estimated more correctly.

  The invention according to claim 5 is characterized in that, in the above invention, the work performed by the worker simulated by the worker simulation means is work related to restoration of the power distribution facility.

  According to the fifth aspect of the present invention, since the work performed by the simulated worker is configured to be the work related to the restoration of the power distribution equipment, the work related to the restoration of the power distribution equipment is decomposed to a specific action level of the worker. Can be analyzed.

  According to a sixth aspect of the present invention, a worker simulation step for simulating a worker who performs a work related to recovery in a disaster area, and information related to a work performed by the worker simulated by the worker simulation step are output. A recovery work information output step.

  According to the sixth aspect of the present invention, since the worker who performs the work related to the restoration of the disaster area is simulated and the information related to the work performed by the simulated worker is output, the specific action of the worker Work time can be estimated by breaking down to the level.

  The invention according to claim 7 outputs a worker simulation procedure for simulating a worker who performs a work related to recovery in a disaster area, and information on a work performed by a worker simulated by the worker simulation procedure. A recovery work information output procedure is executed by a computer.

  According to the seventh aspect of the present invention, since the worker who performs the work related to the restoration of the disaster area is simulated and the information related to the work performed by the simulated worker is output, the specific action of the worker Subsequent work analysis up to the level becomes possible.

  Further, the invention according to claim 8 is an initial recovery plan creation simulation step for simulating the work of sequentially updating the initial recovery plan in the affected area each time usable information is obtained based on the prior prediction of the damage situation; An initial placement simulation step for simulating work to be placed based on an initial recovery plan created by simulating work by the initial recovery plan creation simulation step; A restoration work simulation step is included in which a restoration person arranged by simulating the work in the placement simulation step simulates a work for restoring the disaster area.

  According to the invention of claim 8, each time information that can be used is obtained based on the advance prediction of the damage situation, the restoration person who performs the restoration work and the restoration are simulated by simulating the work of sequentially updating the initial restoration plan in the affected area. The process of laying out the equipment and materials necessary for the work was simulated based on the initial recovery plan, and the configured recovery person simulated the work to restore the affected area. Can be accurately simulated. In addition, even if the initial prediction accuracy is not so high, the prediction accuracy can be automatically improved through the process of sequentially updating the recovery plan.

  According to the invention of claim 1, 6 or 7, the work is analyzed by decomposing to a specific action level of the worker that has not been considered in the conventional method, so that the work related to the recovery is more accurate than the conventional method. The effect is that it can be analyzed.

  Further, according to the invention of claim 2, since the worker who performs the work related to the recovery can be simulated more closely in consideration of the elements that are not considered in the conventional method, the work related to the recovery can be analyzed in detail. There is an effect that can be.

  Further, according to the invention of claim 3, since the prediction accuracy of the recovery time is improved, there is an effect that the prior analysis can be accurately performed.

  According to the invention of claim 4, since the travel time that has not been considered in the conventional method is included in the prediction, there is an effect that the prediction accuracy of the recovery time can be improved.

  According to the invention of claim 5, since the work related to the restoration of the power distribution facility is analyzed by analyzing it up to the specific action level of the worker, the work related to the restoration of the power distribution equipment is performed for each action level of the worker. The effect is that it can be analyzed in detail.

  Further, according to the invention of claim 8, since the work related to the recovery is closely simulated, there is an effect that the work behavior of the worker in the recovery work can be analyzed precisely.

  Exemplary embodiments of a disaster recovery process simulation apparatus, a disaster recovery process simulation method, and a disaster recovery process simulation program according to the present invention will be described below in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.

  First, the concept of the disaster recovery simulator according to the present embodiment will be described. A disaster recovery simulator is a tool that mimics the process of emergency recovery of damage to power distribution facilities caused by disasters such as earthquakes and typhoons that occur in a certain geographical area. For restoration work, in order to restore the equipment as soon as possible and supply electricity, the equipment must not be completely repaired, and the emergency restoration work until the power transmission can be restored and after the emergency restoration work is completed. There is a permanent restoration work to replace the damaged large-scale equipment or a damaged utility pole and return it to the state before the disaster, but here we are targeting emergency restoration work, The emergency recovery work is simply called the recovery work.

The disaster recovery simulator is a virtual world in which the affected area is modeled in a computer. As shown in FIG. 1, the disaster recovery simulator is roughly divided into the following three elements.
(1) Elements that make up the region (2) Elements that make up the power distribution facility (3) Workers who perform restoration work

  There are roads and city blocks in the areas targeted by the disaster recovery simulator. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating handling of roads and blocks in the disaster recovery simulator. As shown in the figure, in the disaster recovery simulator, the road is the movement route during the recovery work, and when the building collapses due to an earthquake disaster and a part of the road is blocked, The moving speed shall be reduced. In addition, the amount and direction of rubble are predicted based on the height of the buildings in the block, and reflected in the road blockage during the earthquake. As described above, the present invention is devised so that a change in the movement speed of the worker can be taken in due to road blockage and the movement time of the worker can be estimated accurately.

  There are four main facilities (supports, switches, transformers, electric wires) that are important in the recovery work related to power supply in the event of a disaster. Each equipment has a unique failure state (mode). Here, it is assumed that each equipment has a failure mode shown in FIG.

  The worker who performs the restoration work includes the types of commander, patrol person, and restoration person. The commander prepares an initial recovery plan in consideration of personnel, materials, and equipment based on incomplete information on the failure that has occurred, and issues work instructions to the recoverers and patrolmen. In addition, the commander creates an initial recovery plan based on the information obtained in advance, and modifies the existing recovery plan using information obtained from the patrolman and the recovery person during the recovery work. The recovery time is predicted sequentially.

  The patrol person is an operator who patrols and investigates the disaster site in order to grasp the damage situation. If damage is found, record the damage location and damage status and report to the commander. The recovery person is an operator who performs recovery work at the disaster site. The patrol person has several patterns such as patrol before the restoration work and the case of carrying out the restoration work in parallel. In the present invention, the patrol person is modeled to be able to deal with any pattern. The roles of the patrol person and the restoration person are appropriately changed depending on the progress of the restoration work and the judgment of the commander.

  Note that in the disaster recovery simulator according to the present embodiment, each worker is realized as an agent using a multi-agent technique in order to precisely represent each worker's individual work level. In multi-agent technology, each worker can be expressed as software that collects information from the outside and acts autonomously. Therefore, it is possible to perform a detailed analysis on when and how each worker is performing in the recovery work.

  Next, the functional configuration of the disaster recovery simulator according to the present embodiment will be described. FIG. 4 is a block diagram illustrating a functional configuration of the disaster recovery simulator according to the present embodiment. As shown in the figure, the disaster recovery simulator 100 includes a control unit 110, a regional information storage unit 120, a power distribution facility information storage unit 130, and an operator simulation unit 140.

  The control unit 110 is a processing unit that controls the entire disaster recovery simulator 100, and performs initialization processing of the disaster recovery simulator 100, output of simulation results, and the like. In the initialization process, the regional data 10, the power distribution facility data 20, the recovery time data 30, and the worker parameters 40 are read.

  The area data 10 is data for describing an area to be simulated, and includes data relating to a disaster situation such as a road blockage situation. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing the region description data. As shown in the figure, the area data 10 is composed of data relating to a block and data relating to a road.

  The power distribution facility data 20 is data related to the power distribution facility including the damage situation, and the data of the damaged facility is data calculated based on the probability of occurrence of damage. Various disaster occurrence scenarios such as earthquake intensity and epicenter differences, typhoon intensity and course differences can be simulated by changing the power distribution facility data 20. Similarly, it is also possible to execute simulation by sequentially updating the power distribution facility data 20 using the damage situation collected by the work of the patroler. With this function, it is possible to predict recovery time with higher accuracy by sequentially adding the obtained inspection data. FIG. 6 is a diagram showing the power distribution facility data 20. As shown in the figure, the power distribution facility data 20 is composed of damage data related to a support, an electric wire, a switch, and a transformer.

  The recovery time data 30 is data indicating an average recovery time for each failure mode of the power distribution facility. FIG. 7 is a diagram showing the recovery time data 30. As shown in the figure, the recovery time data 30 includes the type of power distribution equipment and the average recovery time for each failure mode. Here, when the types of power distribution facilities are the same and the failure modes are the same, the recovery time is assumed to be the same.

  The worker parameter 40 is a parameter for setting each worker's operation and ability. Specifically, the processing speed of recovery work (number of processes per unit time) is defined. FIG. 8 is a diagram showing the worker parameter 40. As shown in the figure, the maximum number of contacts can be set for the commander, and the processing capacity, maximum operating time, etc. can be set for the recoverer.

  Moreover, the control part 110 outputs the recovery work time information 50, the recovery action information 60, and the decision-making information 70 as a simulation result. The recovery work time information 50 is information such as the required time and the required time for each work item, the recovery action information 60 is information on the work route, and the decision making information 70 is log information related to the decision making made by the worker.

  The region information storage unit 120 is a storage unit that stores the region data 10 read by the control unit 110. The power distribution facility information storage unit 130 is a storage unit that stores the power distribution facility data 20 read by the control unit 110.

  The worker simulation unit 140 is a processing unit that simulates the worker, a commander simulation unit 141 that simulates the commander, a patrol person simulation unit 142 that simulates the patroler, and a restorer simulation unit that simulates the restoration person 143. The commander simulation unit 141 issues an instruction to the patrol person simulation unit 142 and the restoration person simulation unit 143, and receives a report of the disaster situation from the patrol person simulation unit 142 and the restoration person simulation unit 143.

  Next, a processing procedure of the disaster recovery simulator 100 according to the present embodiment will be described. FIG. 9 is a flowchart illustrating the processing procedure of the disaster recovery simulator 100 according to the present embodiment. As shown in the figure, in this disaster recovery simulation, first, the control unit 110 performs an initialization process (step S10).

  Specifically, as an initialization process, the control unit 110 reads the regional data 10 and stores it in the regional information storage unit 120, and reads the power distribution facility data 20 and stores it in the power distribution facility information storage unit 130. Further, the recovery time data 30 and the worker parameter 40 are read to set the worker simulation unit 140 and initialize the equipment and materials. In addition, the control unit 110 predicts the number of personnel that can go to work. The number of employees is predicted by randomly increasing or decreasing the number of attendances determined by prior assumptions.

  Then, the disaster recovery simulator 100 performs an initial plan creation phase simulation process for simulating the initial plan creation phase (step S20). In the initial plan creation phase, the commander creates an initial plan based on a manual prepared in advance. Specifically, the commander mobilizes workers (recovery person, patrol person). Then, the number of personnel, equipment, and materials that can be worked on is confirmed, and an initial recovery plan is created based on the preliminary prediction of the damage situation. Therefore, in the initial plan creation phase simulation process, the commander performing these operations is simulated by the commander simulation unit 141. A method for creating a recovery plan will be described later.

  Then, the disaster recovery simulator 100 performs an initial placement phase simulation process that simulates the initial placement phase (step S30). In the initial placement phase, the commander initially places people, equipment and materials in order to start the recovery work. Specifically, the commander assigns dispatched restorers, equipment, and materials to individual distribution lines based on the initial recovery plan. Then, the patrol person moves to the patrol place to share, and the restoration person moves to the work place to share. Therefore, in the initial arrangement phase simulation process, the commander, the patrol person, and the restoration person who perform these operations are simulated by the commander simulation part 141, the patrol person simulation part 142, and the restoration person simulation part 143.

  In addition, the patrol person simulation unit 142 and the restoration person simulation part 143 reflect the traffic congestion state and the blockage state on the movement time when simulating the movement of the inspection person and the restoration person. Specifically, the patrol person simulation unit 142 and the restoration person simulation unit 143 function in advance the degree of traffic congestion that affects the travel time and road blockage due to building damage in advance. Reflects the degree of congestion and blockage. In this way, by reflecting the traffic congestion situation and the blockage situation on the travel time, the travel time at the time of the disaster can be easily predicted including elements not considered in the conventional method. Further, when the road is completely blocked, the patrol person simulation unit 142 and the restoration person simulation unit 143 simulate the movement of the patrol person and the restoration person while searching for an alternative route.

  Then, the disaster recovery simulator 100 performs a recovery phase simulation process that simulates the recovery phase (step S40). Details of the recovery phase will be described later. And the control part 110 performs the output process which outputs the recovery work time information 50, the recovery action information 60, and the decision-making information 70 (step S50).

  Next, a method for creating / updating a recovery plan will be described. Here, the unit of restoration is the distribution line, the distribution line is composed of several switch sections, and the unit of power transmission confirmation is the switch section. When the power transmission is confirmed, the switch section is opened and closed from the side closer to the root (power supply), and it is confirmed whether there is a malfunction during energization.

  In creating a recovery plan, the work group's recovery target equipment is determined and the movement route is planned simultaneously. For this reason, first, the recovery target facilities are clustered based on an appropriate distance so as to be equal to the number of work groups. Next, work is sequentially assigned to each work group so that the total sum of the movement distances is minimized. In the present invention, the distance between two points for restoration clustering is as follows: 1) “distribution line distance” in which the switch section 1 is the distribution line distance 1, and 2) the sum of the movable road distances between the two points. A certain “movable block distance” and 3) a “physical distance” that is a distance of a straight line connecting two points can be used. By creating a recovery plan for each of these three types of distances and executing a recovery simulation, it is possible to select the shortest strategy.

  The restoration plan update is a process of correcting the restoration plan based on the damage information obtained during the patrol work of the patrol person or the restoration work of the restoration person. In this process, if the damage situation that was unknown at the time of initial plan formulation is found, the recovery plan is updated based on the damage situation. Specifically, a plan is created and the patrol person and the restoration person are assigned again so that the place where the damage situation is serious and the place where the damage place has a great influence on the distribution line is given priority. Through this process, the sequential work plan is revised and the restoration work can be completed in as short a time as possible.

  Next, a procedure of work performed by the worker in the recovery phase will be described. FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing a procedure of work performed by the worker in the recovery phase. As shown in the figure, in the recovery phase, the recoverer performs work (step S41). That is, the restoration person performs the restoration work of the distributed distribution line.

  Then, the restoration person makes a power transmission request when the restoration of the distribution line is completed, and the commander gives a power transmission instruction in response to the power transmission request. Then, the restoration person performs power transmission confirmation (step S42), and if there is an abnormality, returns to step S41 to carry out the work. Here, the abnormality occurs with a probability of 5%.

  On the other hand, if there is no abnormality, the commander confirms whether the restoration target distribution line remains (step S43), and if not, the operation is completed and the restoration target distribution line remains. If there is, the commander updates various information necessary for restoration work, such as distribution line damage / restoration status, road damage status, etc., based on patrol information obtained from the patrolman and work information obtained from the restoration person (Step S44).

  Further, the restoration person confirms the next work target (step S45), and if the work target distribution line has been determined, moves to the work target distribution line (step S49). On the other hand, if the work target distribution line has not been determined, the commander is requested to instruct the next work target distribution line (step S46) and waits. In addition, the recovery person searches for the vicinity of the recovery point during standby, and when the damaged part is found, the recovery is performed without waiting for an instruction. If recovery is performed without waiting for an instruction, the record is kept. This record is output as decision-making information 70 by the control unit 110.

  On the other hand, the commander corrects the recovery plan based on various information (step S47). In addition, the commander changes the composition of the team of recovery work and patrol as the recovery plan progresses. Then, in response to the request for the recovery target instruction, the commander instructs the recovery person to perform the recovery work based on the recovery plan at that time (step S48). When the restoration person receives the instruction, the restoration person moves to the work distribution line based on the restoration work instruction (step S49).

  In the restoration phase simulation process, the commander, the patrol person, and the restoration person who perform such a series of operations are simulated by the instruction person simulation unit 141, the patrol person simulation unit 142, and the restoration person simulation unit 143, respectively.

  As described above, the commander simulation unit 141, the patrol person simulation unit 142, and the restoration person simulation unit 143 simulate the work performed by the commander, the patrol person, and the restoration person. Can be decomposed to a specific action level of the worker to evaluate the required time, and the recovery time can be predicted with high accuracy.

  The disaster recovery simulator 100 is realized by causing a computer to execute a disaster recovery simulation program. Therefore, a disaster recovery simulation program and a computer that executes the disaster recovery simulation program will be described.

  FIG. 11 is a diagram showing the configuration of the disaster recovery simulation program. As shown in the figure, the disaster recovery simulation program 200 includes an input / output unit 210, an agent framework unit 220, a simulation function unit 230, and a GUI unit 240.

  The input / output unit 210 is a processing unit that inputs the regional data 10, the power distribution facility data 20, the recovery time data 30, and the worker parameters 40 and outputs the recovery work time information 50, the recovery action information 60, and the decision making information 70. is there.

  The agent framework unit 220 is a framework for disaster recovery simulation using multi-agents, and includes an agent frame 221, an object frame 222, and a simulation control unit 223. The agent frame 221 is an agent framework, and the object frame 222 is an object framework. The simulation control unit 223 is a control unit that controls a disaster recovery simulation by a multi-agent.

  The simulation function unit 230 is a function unit that simulates the commander, the patrol person, and the restoration person. The commander agent 231 that operates as the instruction person, the patrol agent agent 232 that operates as the inspection person, and the restoration that operates as the restoration person. An agent agent 233, a power distribution facility object 234 that stores information related to the power distribution facility, and a region object 235 that stores information related to the region. The commander agent 231, the patrol agent agent 232, and the recovery agent agent 233 are instances of the agent frame 221 and inherit the function of the agent frame 221. The power distribution facility object 234 and the area object 235 are instances of the object frame 222 and inherit the functions of the object frame 222.

  The GUI unit 240 is a processing unit that provides a user interface, and includes a simulation screen display unit 241 that receives screen drawing data from the simulation function unit 230 and displays a simulation screen.

  FIG. 12 is a functional block diagram illustrating a configuration of a computer that executes the disaster recovery simulation program 200. As shown in the figure, the computer 300 includes a RAM 310, a CPU 320, an HDD 330, a LAN interface 340, an input / output interface 350, and a DVD drive 360.

  The RAM 310 is a memory that stores a program, a program execution result, and the like. The CPU 320 is a central processing unit that reads a program from the RAM 310 and executes the program. The HDD 330 is a disk device that stores programs and data, and the LAN interface 340 is an interface for connecting the computer 300 to other computers via the LAN. The input / output interface 350 is an interface for connecting an input device such as a mouse or a keyboard and a display device, and the DVD drive 360 is a device for reading / writing a DVD.

  The disaster recovery simulation program 200 executed in the computer 300 is stored in the DVD, read from the DVD by the DVD drive 360, and installed in the computer 300. Alternatively, the disaster recovery simulation program 200 is stored in a database or the like of another computer system connected via the LAN interface 340, read from these databases, and installed in the computer 300. The installed disaster recovery simulation program 200 is stored in the HDD 330, read into the RAM 310, and executed by the CPU 320.

Next, simulation examples performed for operation verification of the disaster recovery simulator 100 will be described. The simulation was performed by virtually creating data for one substation supply area. The area of this power supply area is about 1 km ² . A total of four feeders are connected to one bank of this virtual substation. In the operation verification, a simulation was performed to recover the damages of a plurality of power distribution facilities that occurred on these four virtual feeders.

  FIG. 13 shows parameters for changing the simulation conditions and their meanings. “Accuracy of inspection information” in the figure indicates the probability that damage information obtained by inspection is correct. Since actual data cannot be collected, the present invention virtually assumes two cases: no inspection error (high inspection accuracy) and 5% probability of error (low inspection accuracy). did. This parameter is a parameter for examining how much the restoration work is affected when the accuracy can be improved by using sensor information or the like for patrol.

  “Provision of route information” is a parameter indicating whether or not to provide information on road conditions in the area to be restored. This parameter is a parameter for evaluating the influence on the recovery time due to the fact that the route that realizes the shortest movement time between specific points accompanying the recovery work is obtained as information before the movement.

  “Autonomous search” means that when a recovery person performs recovery work according to a work instruction, after the recovery of the specified location is completed, the area around the recovery location is searched, and if a damaged location is found, recovery is not performed without waiting for the instruction. It is a parameter that indicates whether to do or not. When working autonomously, there is a possibility that standby time and the like can be saved, and this parameter is a parameter for examining the effect of autonomous work.

  In the simulation of operation verification, three cases were set by setting these parameters. The setting of the above parameters for each case is shown in FIG. The “standard case” is a case considered to be the closest to the actual recovery process among the three cases. In this case, the accuracy of the patrol information is about 5% of errors that cause a failure even when there is no failure, the route information is not provided, and the recoverer performs the work according to the instruction of the commander.

  In addition, the “support by information” case is a case where it is assumed that support by various information collection functions that may be applied in the future can be obtained. In this case, since damage information is collected and provided in real time, there is no error due to patrol and route information can be provided.

  The last “periphery search” case is a case where the recovery person performs a recovery work when he / she searches for the vicinity of the recovery point autonomously and finds equipment damage. Setting parameters other than “autonomous search” are the same as in the standard case. By comparing this case with the standard case, it is possible to examine how much the waiting time (waiting for instructions) can be reduced by the recovery person's autonomous behavior.

  In either case, the upper limit of the normal speed of the restoration person and the patrol person is set to 4 km / h. When the road blockage has not occurred, the vehicle can move at the upper limit value. However, when the road blockage has occurred, the moving speed decreases according to the blockage rate. In addition, an average restoration time is set for restoration of each power distribution facility. Various data used in these simulations are shown in FIG. These data are set for this simulation and are not values based on actual data. Appropriate values need to be determined based on separate surveys.

For operation verification simulation, as data of equipment damage that occurs in this target area,
(1) When damage occurs uniformly in the target area (uniform damage data)
(2) When damage occurs in a specific area within the target area (damage bias data)
Each of the two types of data sets was created. In each data set, damage occurs at random positions, but the number and type of equipment damage that occurs are the same. Therefore, in the operation verification simulation, the time required only for the physical repair work of the equipment is the same in any case, and the overall recovery time varies depending on the time required for other items.

  In the embodiment of the present invention, virtual data is used. However, if actual damage data can be obtained sequentially, it is possible to perform sequential simulation based on the damage data. In this case, prediction with higher accuracy can be automatically performed in the course of the simulation, and the practicality of the present invention can be improved.

  In this simulation, each case was executed for 20 sets of two types of data in total. Therefore, a total of 60 simulations of 3 (case) × 20 (data) were executed.

  FIG. 16 shows a comparison of working time in each case. The figure shows the recovery time of each case where the standard case using uniform damage data is 100. Of the items in the figure, “Overall” is the total work time, and the following five items “Patrol”, “Move”, “Repair”, “Confirm”, and “Standby” are the time to complete the patrol, travel time, Indicates the work time for only physical repair of equipment, the confirmation time for damage to equipment before recovery work, and the waiting time for instructions. Of these, the “confirmation” time is the time required to confirm the damage status again at the time of recovery. If a facility that is not damaged during a patrol is mistakenly determined to be damaged, it takes extra time to check the facility. Further, as described above, the time for only the repair work is the same in any case.

  The work completed in the shortest time in each case is the “support by information” case using data with bias in damage, which is reduced to about 80% of the standard case of uniform damage. Can be seen from FIG.

  FIG. 17 shows the work time reduction rate for each case based on uniform damage data and damage bias data. The figure shows the time reduction rate for the same case using uniform damage data and damage bias data. In the damage bias data, damage occurs in a certain area, so that the travel time is relatively short and the total work time is shortened. In this case, due to the uneven occurrence of damage, the time is reduced by about 6%. In reality, it is considered that there is an area where damage is concentrated due to differences in the ground and blocks, so it is presumed that the situation will be closer to a damage situation that is biased than a situation where damage occurs uniformly. A breakdown of work time in each case is shown in FIG.

  FIG. 19 is a diagram illustrating an example of a display screen during simulation execution. In FIG. 19, the electric wires in the area to be restored are displayed as lines and the supports are displayed as circles. Various buttons for controlling the operation of the disaster recovery simulator 100 are displayed at the top of the screen. Each function is displayed in a square frame under the button.

  The three buttons at the left end are functions for starting, pausing and stopping the simulation, respectively. Also located on the right is a display enlargement / reduction function. The current magnification is displayed between the buttons. Further to the right is a button for displaying the map in an overlapping manner and a screen redraw button. In FIG. 19, the map is not displayed. The slide bar at the top right of the screen is for adjusting the simulation execution speed. The more you slide to the right, the slower the execution, making it easier to check the actions of each agent.

  As described above, in this embodiment, the regional information storage unit 120 stores the regional data 10, the power distribution facility information storage unit 130 stores the power distribution facility data 20, the commander simulation unit 141, and the patrol person simulation unit. 142 and the restoration person simulation unit 143 refer to the area information storage unit 120 and the power distribution facility information storage unit 130 to simulate the work performed by each of the commander, the patrol person, and the restoration person. It is possible to decompose the work related to the specific action level of the worker and evaluate the required time, and to predict the recovery time with high accuracy.

  Further, in this embodiment, the recovery person simulation unit 143 simulates the recovery person's move to the disaster location and the instruction wait from the instruction person, and the disaster recovery simulator 100 includes the recovery time including the recovery person's movement time and standby time. Therefore, the recovery time can be predicted with high accuracy.

  In addition, in this embodiment, the degree of traffic congestion on the road that affects the travel time and the road blockage due to building damage are functionalized in advance, and the traffic congestion level and the blockage status of the road are reflected in the travel time without performing a traffic jam simulation. Therefore, the estimated travel time can be easily calculated in a short time.

  In addition, although the present Example demonstrated the case where the restoration operation | work of electric power distribution equipment was simulated, this invention is not limited to this, The restoration work of other lifelines, such as water supply, gas, and communication equipment, is carried out. The same applies to simulation.

  As described above, the disaster recovery process simulation apparatus, the disaster recovery process simulation method, and the disaster recovery process simulation program according to the present invention are useful for lifeline disaster recovery, and are particularly suitable for examining a disaster recovery plan in advance. Yes. In addition, when patrol data at the time of restoration work is sequentially obtained, the data can be used to perform a sequential simulation to further improve the accuracy of prediction.

It is explanatory drawing for demonstrating the concept of the disaster recovery simulator which concerns on a present Example. It is a figure which shows the handling of the road and a block in a disaster recovery simulator. It is a figure which shows the failure mode of the electric power distribution equipment used as the object of simulation. It is a block diagram which shows the function structure of the disaster recovery simulator which concerns on a present Example. It is a figure which shows area description data. It is a figure which shows electric power distribution equipment data. It is a figure which shows recovery time data. It is a figure which shows an operator parameter. It is a flowchart which shows the process sequence of the disaster recovery simulator which concerns on a present Example. It is a flowchart which shows the procedure of the operation | work which an operator performs in a recovery phase. It is a figure which shows the structure of a disaster recovery simulation program. It is a functional block diagram which shows the structure of the computer which performs a disaster recovery simulation program. It is a figure which shows the condition change parameter of simulation. It is a figure which shows the parameter setting of each simulation case. It is a figure which shows the value of the data used by simulation. It is a figure which shows the working time in each simulation case. It is a figure which shows the shortening rate of the working time of the same case using each uniform damage data and damage bias data. It is a figure which shows the breakdown of work time. It is a figure which shows an example of the display screen at the time of simulation execution.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Regional data 20 Power distribution equipment data 30 Recovery time data 40 Worker parameter 50 Recovery work time information 60 Recovery action information 70 Decision-making information 100 Disaster recovery simulator 110 Control part 120 Area information storage part 130 Electricity distribution equipment information storage part 140 Work Simulating unit 141 Commander simulating unit 142 Patrol simulating unit 143 Restorer simulating unit 200 Disaster recovery simulation program 210 Input / output unit 220 Agent framework unit 221 Agent frame 222 Object frame 223 Simulation control unit 230 Simulation function unit 231 Commander agent 232 Patrol agent 233 Restorer agent 234 Power distribution facility object 235 Regional object 240 GUI unit 241 Simulation image Display unit 300 computer 310 RAM
320 CPU
330 HDD
340 LAN interface 350 I / O interface 360 DVD drive

Claims (8)

Worker simulation means for simulating workers who perform work related to recovery in the affected area;
A disaster recovery process simulation apparatus comprising: recovery work information output means for outputting information on work performed by an operator simulated by the worker simulation means. The worker simulation means is
A patrol person simulation means for simulating a patrol person who patrols the disaster area and collects disaster information;
A restoration person simulation means for simulating a restoration person who collects damage information while performing restoration work of the affected part by moving in the affected area,
A recovery plan is created based on the disaster information collected by the patrol person and the restoration person simulated by the patrol person simulation means and the restoration person simulation means, respectively, and instructions are given to the patrol person and the restoration person based on the created restoration plan. The disaster recovery process simulation device according to claim 1, further comprising commander simulation means for simulating a commander to be issued, and realized by multi-agent technology. The restoration person simulation means simulates the movement of the restoration person to the disaster site,
The disaster recovery process simulation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the recovery work information output unit outputs a recovery time including a recovery person's travel time.   The restoration person simulation means estimates the possible moving speed of a moving body on the road using the degree of road blockage due to building damage in the affected area as a variable, and uses the possible moving speed to move the restoring person in the affected area. The disaster recovery process simulation apparatus according to claim 3, which simulates a change in the level of the disaster.   5. The disaster recovery process simulation apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the work performed by the worker simulated by the worker simulation means is work related to restoration of the power distribution facility. A worker simulation step for simulating a worker who performs work related to recovery in the affected area;
A disaster recovery process simulation method, comprising: a recovery work information output step for outputting information on the work performed by the worker simulated by the worker simulation step. A worker simulation procedure for simulating a worker who performs work related to recovery in a disaster area;
A disaster recovery process simulation program causing a computer to execute a recovery work information output procedure for outputting information on work performed by a worker simulated by the worker simulation procedure. An initial recovery plan creation simulation step that simulates the work of sequentially updating the initial recovery plan in the affected area each time usable information is obtained based on the prior prediction of the damage situation,
An initial placement simulation step for simulating a person who performs a restoration work and equipment and materials necessary for the restoration work based on the initial restoration plan created by simulating the work by the initial restoration plan creation simulation step;
A disaster recovery process simulation method comprising: a recovery work simulation step in which a recovery person arranged by simulating the work in the initial placement simulation step simulates a work for recovering a disaster area.

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