JP2008134891A - Estimation method for electric pole breakage number by earthquake and estimation method for number of outage houses using it - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To estimate a secondary electric pole breakage number with high accuracy from prediction of building damage considering the ground condition of a target area, and to estimate the number of outage houses accompanying the breakage of electric poles with high accuracy. <P>SOLUTION: Correlation between ground surface maximum velocity expressing intensity of earthquake motion and a building complete collapse rate that is a ratio of a completely collapsed building by an earthquake is previously obtained based on damage investigation of a past earthquake, and correlation between the building complete collapse rate and an electric pole breakage rate that is a ratio of the electric pole having suffered breakage damage is previously obtained. The ground surface maximum velocity is calculated from an acceleration response spectrum of the ground surface by the earthquake motion, the building complete collapse rate to the ground surface maximum velocity is obtained from the correlation between the ground surface maximum velocity and the building complete collapse rate, the electric pole breakage rate to the building complete collapse rate is obtained from the correlation between the building complete collapse rate and the electric pole breakage rate, and the secondary damage breakage number is estimated from an expression of the secondary damage breakage number = (an electric pole cardinal number - a burnout number) × the electric pole breakage rate with the number of the electric poles placed inside a mesh as the electric pole cardinal number. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2008,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a method for estimating the number of power pole breakage due to an earthquake and a method for estimating the number of power outages using the earthquake in order to accurately predict the power outage damage caused by damage to power distribution facilities such as utility poles and transformers when an earthquake occurs.

  Conventionally, when an earthquake occurs, a power outage damage caused by damage to power distribution facilities has been predicted. Predicting power outage damage in the event of an earthquake in advance facilitates the creation of a recovery plan, such as the assignment of personnel and the provision of facilities for the recovery of electricity, which is one of the lifelines. It is very important because it leads to recovery.

  The conventional method for predicting power outage damage is based on the earthquake damage to the number of telephone poles installed in the affected area (hereinafter referred to as “the number of telephone poles”) from past earthquake damage surveys such as the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. The ratio of the number of telephone poles received is calculated as a damage factor for each seismic intensity scale, and by multiplying the damage coefficient by the number of telephone poles in the target area for damage prediction, the number of pole pole damage per seismic intensity scale is predicted. Met.

  Specifically, the causes of damage to telephone poles are classified into other damages such as breakage due to shaking of earthquake motion, breakage due to collapse of buildings, burnout due to fire, inclination other than breakage, cracks, subsidence, etc. Therefore, the damage factor is calculated for each cause of damage, and this damage factor is multiplied by the number of utility poles in the target area subject to damage prediction. Predicted the degree of power outage damage in various areas.

  In such a conventional method for predicting power outage damage, (1) the past earthquake damage statistics are applied to other target areas as they are, and errors will occur due to differences in conditions between areas. Since the prediction is based on the damage factor calculated in (1) above, the difference due to the magnitude of ground motion at the same seismic intensity scale is not reflected. (3) Since the unit of the prediction area is wide, the prediction results can be used effectively. The problem is that it was not.

  By the way, in the survey of past earthquake damage mentioned above, the cause of the power pole damage due to the earthquake is mostly secondary damage due to the collapse of the building, and there are relatively few breakage due to shaking of earthquake motion or burning due to fire The current situation is clear (about 82%). Therefore, if the secondary damage prediction accuracy can be improved in consideration of this point, it can be expected that the overall damage prediction accuracy can be dramatically improved.

  Here, when the above problems are examined in more detail, the problem (1) above can be solved by predicting the damage status of the building due to ground motion in consideration of the ground properties of the target area where damage is predicted. Therefore, it is considered that the problem (2) can be solved by predicting damage based on the intensity of the earthquake, regardless of the seismic intensity scale.

  The following Patent Document 1 can be cited as an aid for solving such a problem. In Patent Document 1 below, based on past earthquake records, an acceleration response spectrum representing the earthquake motion at the target point is estimated from the distance from the source fault that is the source of the earthquake to the target point and the magnitude indicating the magnitude of the earthquake. An acceleration response spectrum estimation formula to be calculated is obtained, and the earthquake propagation path is divided into an engineering base located in the deep layer and a surface layer ground located on the engineering base, and the engineering equation is estimated by the acceleration response spectrum estimation formula. By estimating the acceleration response spectrum of the target point on the base and multiplying the acceleration response spectrum by the amplification characteristic of the surface layer, the target point on the surface layer located directly above the target point on the engineering base The acceleration response spectrum of the earthquake is estimated, the maximum velocity is obtained from this acceleration response spectrum, and this maximum velocity is used as an index for damage estimation. Strength estimation method is described.

Furthermore, the following Non-Patent Document 1 includes the maximum speed of the surface and the damage rate of buildings (total destruction or wreck, more than moderate damage, as damage function of low-rise independent houses in a certain area damaged by the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. It is described that there is a correlation with the relationship between the minor damage and the classification.
JP 2002-168964 A Hasegawa, Yodogawa, Matsuoka, “Earthquake damage prediction of wooden buildings in a wide area using regional mesh statistics”, Architectural Institute of Japan, No.505, P53-59, March 1998

  That is, the ground surface maximum velocity of the seismic wave in consideration of the ground properties of the target area is calculated from the above Patent Document 1, and the building completely destroyed by the earthquake in the target area based on the maximum ground surface speed from the Non-Patent Document 1. Ratio (hereinafter referred to as “building destruction rate”) can be estimated.

  Therefore, in order to clarify the relationship between the maximum speed of the ground surface and the total damage rate of the building from the accumulation of a large amount of data, and to accurately grasp the situation of secondary power pole damage due to the total damage of the building, If the relationship between building damage and utility pole damage can be clarified, the overall prediction accuracy can be improved.

  Therefore, the main problem of the present invention is that the power failure damage situation at the time of the earthquake is accurately estimated in advance, thereby facilitating the preparation of a recovery plan, such as the arrangement of personnel for recovery and the provision of equipment, and the early electricity supply In order to contribute to restoration, the target area is subdivided into meshes and damage prediction is performed for each mesh unit, and the number of secondary power pole breakage is accurately estimated from building damage prediction considering the ground conditions of the target area The object is to provide a method for estimating the number of blackouts with good estimation and accurately estimating the number of power outages due to breakage of the utility pole.

In order to solve the above-mentioned problem, as the present invention according to claim 1, the target area is subdivided into a mesh shape, and the number of primary damage breakage of power poles broken by earthquake motion and the total destruction of a building due to an earthquake for each mesh unit. A method for estimating the number of power pole breakage due to an earthquake for obtaining a number of secondary damage breakage of a power pole that breaks along with it, and estimating a number of power pole breakage that is a sum of the number of primary damage breakage and the number of secondary damage breakage ,
Based on past earthquake damage surveys, the correlation between the maximum velocity of the ground surface representing the strength of ground motion and the total building destruction rate, which is the proportion of buildings completely destroyed by the earthquake, is calculated in advance. Find the correlation with the telephone pole breakage rate, which is the ratio of damaged telephone poles,
The number of secondary damage breakage is calculated from the acceleration response spectrum of the ground surface due to earthquake motion, the surface maximum velocity is calculated from the correlation between the surface maximum velocity and the building total failure rate with respect to the surface maximum velocity, The electric pole breakage rate with respect to the building total failure rate is obtained from the correlation between the building total failure rate and the power pole breakage rate, and the number of power poles installed in the mesh is used as the power pole radix to estimate by the following equation (1) The method of estimating the number of telephone pole breakage due to the earthquake.

  In the present invention according to the first aspect, as described above, the breakage of the utility pole due to the earthquake is made mainly for the purpose of accurately estimating the number of breakage of the secondary damage because the breakage due to the secondary damage accounts for the majority. It is a thing. That is, based on past earthquake damage surveys, the correlation between the maximum velocity of the ground surface representing the strength of seismic motion and the total building destruction rate, which is the proportion of buildings completely destroyed by the earthquake, is determined, and the total building destruction rate Is calculated, and the maximum velocity of the ground surface is calculated from the acceleration response spectrum of the ground surface due to earthquake motion. The building destruction rate with respect to speed is obtained from the correlation between the maximum ground surface speed and the building destruction rate, and the utility pole failure rate with respect to the building destruction rate is obtained from the correlation between the building destruction rate and the utility pole failure rate. ), It is possible to accurately estimate the damage to the telephone pole breakage corresponding to the ground surface maximum speed regardless of the seismic intensity scale.

  In addition, since the number of broken poles can be calculated for each mesh unit obtained by subdividing the target area into a mesh shape, the distribution of breakage damage in the target area can be grasped at a glance on the map.

  As the present invention according to claim 2, the number of primary damage breakage is obtained in advance based on a past earthquake damage investigation, and for each seismic intensity scale, a rate of breakage of a power pole due to earthquake motion, which is a ratio of power poles with damage damage, is obtained. The method for estimating the number of power pole breaks according to claim 1, wherein the power pole breakage rate due to the earthquake motion is calculated by multiplying the number of power pole bases. Is provided.

  The present invention according to claim 2 is for estimating the number of primary damage breaks, and as described above, the number of primary damage breaks is smaller than the number of secondary damage breaks, so the seismic intensity This is a simple calculation based on the pole breakage rate based on the floor.

The present invention according to claim 3 is an estimation method of the number of blackouts due to an earthquake for estimating the number of blackouts in a target area that suffers from a blackout due to an earthquake,
The causes of power outages are classified into power outages caused by broken utility poles, power outages caused by damage to underground equipment installed in the ground due to the complete destruction of the building, and power outages caused by the building being burnt down.
The number of power outages due to the electric pole breakage is estimated by using the method for estimating the number of electric pole breakages due to the earthquake according to any one of claims 1 and 2, and then the number of electric pole breaks is calculated as 1 for each mesh unit. Multiply by the ratio of the number of blackouts due to breakage damage per unit, calculate the number of blackouts due to broken poles per mesh unit, and estimate by summing up the entire target area,
The number of power outages due to the breakdown of the underground facilities is calculated by multiplying the average building total destruction rate, which is the average of the total building destruction rate over the entire target area, by the damage factor, which is the probability that the equipment installed on the road in the underground facilities will be damaged by the collapse of the building. Estimate by calculating the damage rate and multiplying this damage rate by the number of underground supply lamps, which is the number of households to which the underground equipment distributes power,
The number of blackout houses due to building burnout is predicted for each mesh unit based on the total building destruction rate and the number of fires taking into account the season and time of the earthquake occurrence, and the fired buildings in each mesh that could not be extinguished by fire fighting activities etc. Multiply the building burnout rate, which is the ratio of the above, by the number of electric houses in each mesh, calculate the number of blackout buildings due to building burnout per mesh unit, and estimate by summing up the entire target area,
There is provided an estimation method of the number of power outages due to an earthquake characterized by calculating the number of power outages due to an earthquake by totaling the estimated number of power outages due to breakage of the power pole, breakdown of underground facilities, and number of power outages due to building burnout. The

  The present invention as set forth in claim 3 is for estimating the number of eaves due to a power outage due to damage to underground facilities and a power outage due to building burnout in addition to a power outage due to breakage of the utility pole according to any of claims 1 and 2 due to an earthquake. belongs to. Thus, by knowing the number of power outages at the time of the earthquake in advance, it becomes easy to make a recovery plan, such as the arrangement of personnel for recovery and the provision of equipment, and can contribute to the early recovery of electricity.

  As described above in detail, according to the present invention, the target area can be subdivided into a mesh shape so that damage can be predicted for each mesh unit, and the number of secondary power pole breakage can be estimated from building damage prediction considering the ground conditions of the target area. Can be estimated with high accuracy, and the number of power outages due to breakage of this utility pole can be estimated with high accuracy, making it easier to make a recovery plan in the event of an earthquake and realizing early recovery of electricity.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

[Method of estimating the number of pole breaks]
A method for estimating the number of telephone pole breakage due to an earthquake will be described with reference to FIG. First, as basic data is created, the target area for damage prediction is subdivided into meshes, and for each mesh unit, as shown in FIG. 2, various numbers, location information, and the number of households with electricity contracts ( (Hereinafter referred to as “the number of electric lamps”) and the number of utility poles in the mesh are stored in a database. Here, the finer the mesh unit, the more accurate damage prediction is possible, but it is preferably about 500 m × 500 m in consideration of the labor and calculation amount.

  The method for estimating the number of power pole breakage is to determine, for each mesh unit, the number of primary damage breakage of a power pole broken by earthquake motion and the number of secondary damage breakage of a power pole broken due to a total destruction of a building due to an earthquake, The number of telephone pole breaks, which is the sum of the number of primary damage breaks and the number of secondary damage breaks, is estimated.

  A method for calculating the number of primary damage breaks will be described. In the calculation of the number of primary damage breaks, as shown in Fig. 3, the number of power poles broken by earthquake motion is the ratio of the total number of power poles for each seismic intensity scale based on past earthquake damage surveys. Find the rate of pole breakage due to earthquake motion. Then, the number of primary damage breaks is calculated by the following formula: number of primary damage breaks = seismic intensity average value of power pole breakage rate x number of power poles.

  Next, a method for calculating the secondary damage breakage number will be described. In calculating the number of secondary damage failures, as shown in FIG. 4, based on past earthquake damage investigations, the correlation between the ground surface maximum velocity representing the intensity of earthquake motion and the total building destruction rate is obtained in advance. . For reference, the average value of the total building destruction rate for each conventional seismic intensity scale (seismic intensity 5, 6, 7) is shown in FIG. Even if it is a floor, there is a large range in the total destruction rate of the building, which greatly affected the estimation result of the number of telephone pole breakage. On the other hand, in the present method, as described above, since the building total destruction rate based on the ground surface maximum speed is obtained from the correlation shown in FIG. 4, it is possible to accurately estimate the number of pole breakage.

  In addition, as shown in FIG. 5, a correlation between the total destruction rate of the building and the power pole breakage rate, which is the ratio of the power poles damaged by the earthquake, is obtained in advance based on past earthquake damage surveys. As shown in the figure, there is a certain correlation between the total destruction rate of the building and the utility pole breakage rate. In the example shown in the figure, the correlation formula is a straight line of the pole breakage rate = 0.17154 × building destruction rate. It can be expressed by an approximate expression.

  In calculating the number of secondary damage failures, as shown in FIG. 1, the maximum ground surface velocity is calculated from the acceleration response spectrum of the ground surface due to earthquake motion, and the total building destruction rate with respect to the maximum ground surface velocity is shown in FIG. 5 is obtained from the correlation between the maximum ground surface speed and the building total destruction rate, and the electric pole breakage rate with respect to the obtained building total destruction rate is obtained from the correlation between the building total destruction rate and the electric pole breakage rate shown in FIG. Then, the number of secondary damage breaks is estimated from the following equation (1).

  As the calculation method of the ground surface maximum speed, the method described in Patent Document 1 can be preferably used. Specifically, first, in the step of setting an epicenter fault, an epicenter fault Δ and a magnitude M are set. The source fault Δ and the magnitude M are set by the operator selecting a desired earthquake name or changing the setting of the selected earthquake.

Next, in the response spectrum calculation step on the engineering foundation, H and R obtained from the magnitude M and the hypocenter fault parameters are substituted into the acceleration response spectrum estimation formula S _aB (T) = F (M, H, R) Then, the acceleration response spectrum S _aB is calculated.

Next, in the response spectrum calculation step for the ground surface, the acceleration response spectrum S _aS (T) is calculated by multiplying the acceleration response spectrum S _aB by the amplification characteristic AMP of the surface ground.

Thereafter, the acceleration response spectrum S _aS (T) is converted into various seismic intensity parameters. In the calculation step of the ground surface maximum speed PGV, the maximum speed PGV is obtained from each periodic component of the acceleration response spectrum S _aS (T) from the estimation formula of the following formula (2).

  After determining the number of primary damages and the number of secondary damages as described above, the number of telephone pole breaks per mesh unit is estimated by adding the number of primary damages and the number of secondary damages. As shown in FIG. 6, the number of telephone pole breaks estimated in this way is obtained by performing stepwise color coding according to the number of telephone pole breaks for each mesh unit on the map. The damage distribution can be clearly understood.

[Method for estimating the number of power outages]
Next, a method for estimating the number of blackout houses, which is the number of households damaged by a blackout due to an earthquake in the target area, will be described in detail with reference to FIG.

  When an earthquake occurs, the cause of a power outage is (1) a power outage due to a broken utility pole, (2) a breakdown of underground equipment due to a breakdown of equipment installed on the road in the underground facility due to the complete destruction of the building There are three possible causes: power outage due to fire, and (3) power outage due to building burnout due to building burning. In the present invention, the number of blackouts due to each blackout cause in (1) to (3) is obtained for the entire target area, and the total number of blackouts due to each blackout cause is estimated to estimate the number of blackouts in the entire target area. Is. The estimation method will be described in detail below.

(Method for estimating the number of power outages due to broken telephone poles)
The number of power failure due to power pole breakage is estimated by the method of estimating the number of power pole breaks described above, and then the number of power pole breaks is different from the usage pattern in each region, such as the number of lines per power pole and the number of distribution lines. By multiplying by the ratio of the number of power outages that are out of power due to breakage damage per power pole to make corrections that take into account, the number of power outages due to broken power poles per mesh unit is estimated and totaled over the entire target area calculate.

  The specific calculation process of the ratio of the number of power outages is to calculate the number of power outages using the following formula (3) from the number of broken poles.

  From the number of blackout lines calculated by the previous formula, the number of blackout eaves can be calculated by the following formula (4).

  In the above formula (4), if the part of “power outage line ratio × distribution line coefficient × number of lamps / distribution lines” is defined as “ratio of outages due to breakage per power pole” (4) can be transformed into the following formula (5). In this case, for each mesh, by arranging the ratio of the number of power outages that cause power outages due to breakage damage per power pole, by multiplying the number of power outage houses (constant) by the number of power pole breaks, Can be obtained.

(Method for estimating the number of outages due to damage to underground facilities)
In this estimation, the number of blackout houses where power outages occur due to the destruction of buildings and damage to underground installation equipment such as circuit switches and service switches.

  The number of blackouts due to the breakdown of underground facilities is the probability that the equipment installed on the road of the underground facilities will be damaged due to the collapse of the building after calculating the average building total failure rate by averaging the total building destruction rate for each mesh unit in the entire target area. A certain damage factor is calculated by the following formula (6), and the number of power outages is calculated by the following formula (7).

  The damage factor can be arbitrarily set for each target area, but is, for example, 10% of the reciprocal number (1/20) of the number of lamps (20) supplied by one transformer. It can be about 0.005. The number of underground supply lamps is the number of households to which the underground facilities distribute power.

(Method of estimating the number of outages due to building burnout)
In this estimation, we estimate the number of blackout houses where blackouts occur due to the buildings themselves being burnt down.

  For the number of blackout buildings due to building burnout, the number of fires taking into account the season and time of earthquake occurrence is predicted based on the total building destruction rate for each mesh unit, and the number of fired buildings in each mesh that could not be extinguished by firefighting activities etc. After calculating the building burnout rate, which is the ratio, the number of outages for each mesh is estimated from the formula (8) below, and the total is calculated for the entire target area.

It is a flowchart which shows the estimation method of the telephone pole breakage number by an earthquake. It is an example of creation of a database sheet. It is a table | surface which shows the electric pole breakage rate by the earthquake motion for every seismic intensity level. It is a graph which shows the relationship between a ground surface maximum speed and a building total destruction rate. It is a graph which shows the relationship between a building complete destruction rate and a utility pole breakage rate. It is a map which shows distribution of the number of telephone pole breakages for every mesh unit. It is a flowchart which shows the estimation method of the number of the blackouts by an earthquake.

Claims (3)

The target area is subdivided into meshes, and for each mesh unit, the number of primary damage breakage of power poles broken due to earthquake motion and the number of secondary damage breakage of power poles broken due to the total destruction of buildings due to the earthquake are calculated, A method for estimating the number of telephone pole breakage due to an earthquake to estimate the number of telephone pole breakage, which is the sum of the number of primary damages and the number of secondary damages,
Based on past earthquake damage surveys, the correlation between the maximum velocity of the ground surface, which indicates the strength of earthquake motion, and the total building destruction rate, which is the proportion of buildings that were completely destroyed by the earthquake, was calculated in advance. Find the correlation with the telephone pole breakage rate, which is the ratio of damaged telephone poles,
The number of secondary damage breakage is calculated from the acceleration response spectrum of the ground surface due to earthquake motion, the surface maximum velocity is calculated from the correlation between the surface maximum velocity and the building total failure rate with respect to the surface maximum velocity, The utility pole breakage rate with respect to the total building destruction rate is obtained from the correlation between the building total destruction rate and the utility pole breakage rate, and the number of power poles installed in the mesh is used as the power pole radix to estimate by the following equation (1). The method of estimating the number of telephone pole breakage due to the earthquake.

  The number of primary damage breaks is determined in advance based on a past earthquake damage survey, and for each seismic intensity scale, a power pole breakage rate due to ground motion, which is the ratio of power poles with breakage damage, is obtained. The method of estimating the number of pole breakage according to claim 1, wherein the number is calculated by multiplying the number of poles by the pole number. A method for estimating the number of power outages due to an earthquake in order to estimate the number of power outages in an area subject to power outage damage due to an earthquake,
The causes of power outages are classified into power outages caused by broken utility poles, power outages caused by damage to underground equipment installed in the ground due to the complete destruction of the building, and power outages caused by the building being burnt down.
The number of power outages due to the electric pole breakage is calculated by estimating the number of electric pole breakages using the method for estimating the number of electric pole breakages due to the earthquake according to any one of claims 1 and 2, and then adding the number of electric pole breaks to the number of electric pole breakages for each mesh unit. Multiply by the ratio of the number of blackouts due to breakage damage per unit, calculate the number of blackouts due to broken poles per mesh unit, and estimate by summing up the entire target area,
The number of power outages due to the breakdown of the underground facilities is calculated by multiplying the average building total destruction rate, which is the average of the total building destruction rate over the entire target area, by the damage factor, which is the probability that the equipment installed on the road in the underground facilities will be damaged by the collapse of the building. Estimate by calculating the damage rate and multiplying this damage rate by the number of underground supply lamps, which is the number of households to which the underground equipment distributes power,
The number of blackout houses due to building burnout is predicted for each mesh unit based on the total building destruction rate and the number of fires taking into account the season and time of the earthquake occurrence, and the fired buildings in each mesh that could not be extinguished by fire fighting activities etc. Multiply the building burnout rate, which is the ratio of the above, by the number of electric houses in each mesh, calculate the number of blackout buildings due to building burnout per mesh unit, and estimate by summing up the entire target area,
A method for estimating the number of power outages due to an earthquake, wherein the number of power outages due to an earthquake is obtained by summing up the estimated number of power outages due to broken utility poles, the number of power outages due to damage to underground facilities, and the number of power outages due to building burnout.

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