JP2008039261A - Operation control device of cogeneration system - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an operation control device of a cogeneration system suitable for operation of the cogeneration system. <P>SOLUTION: This operation control device 30A of the cogeneration system 1 determines an operation pattern of a generator 8 based on a calculated correlation, by calculating the correlation between a hot water supply load and the water temperature or the outside air temperature, and is provided with an operation control program 35A for determining the operation pattern of the generator 8 so as to provide the averaged hot water supply load (S10), by averaging the past hot water supply load (S9), when a determining factor of the correlation is smaller than a predetermined value (S5:NO). <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2008,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to an operation control device for a cogeneration system that controls an operation of a cogeneration system by predicting an energy load pattern of a prediction target day.

  The cogeneration system supplies power generated by the fuel cell to power equipment to cover the power load, and the fuel cell collects exhaust heat generated during power generation and supplies it to the heat equipment to cover the hot water supply load. As a next-generation energy-saving device, it is expected to be put to practical use and spread in the home. The cogeneration system cannot store the generated power. In addition, the cogeneration system heats tap water with the exhaust heat generated by the fuel cell, stores the hot water in a hot water storage tank, and supplies it to a bath faucet, kitchen faucet, floor heating, etc. In addition, if hot water is not stored in the hot water storage tank, a heat dissipation loss occurs and energy saving performance deteriorates. Therefore, the household cogeneration system predicts the hot water supply load with high accuracy and operates to cover the predicted hot water supply load, thereby improving the energy saving effect and the economic effect.

  Conventionally, the operation control device of a cogeneration system predicts an energy load pattern (power load pattern and hot water supply load pattern) using a neural network or past data average value, and controls the operation of the cogeneration system ( Patent Literature 1 to Patent Literature 5). However, there is a limit to the memory capacity installed in the operation control device of the cogeneration system, and there is a limit to the amount of data handled by the neural network and database. In addition, when using the average value of past data, it is assumed that the usage conditions of the power load and hot water supply load do not change abruptly. Therefore, if the user's life pattern changes or the season changes, When the load changes, as shown in FIG. 14, a large deviation may occur between the actual hot water supply load and the predicted hot water supply load.

  In this regard, the operation control device for domestic cogeneration described in Patent Document 6 predicts the hot water supply load based on the correlation between the energy load and the water temperature, and controls the operation of the cogeneration system. The hot water supply load generally has a tendency that the consumption is small when the outside air temperature is high, and the consumption is large when the outside air temperature is low. And the water temperature changes according to the outside air temperature. Therefore, if the correlation between the energy load and the water temperature is used, the hot water supply load can be accurately predicted with a small amount of data.

  Moreover, the operation control apparatus of the domestic cogeneration system described in Patent Document 6 calculates primary energy while changing the time cycle of the prediction target day, determines the time cycle that minimizes the primary energy, and determines the operation pattern. decide. Therefore, the time cycle of the prediction target day can be changed according to the user's life pattern. Therefore, according to the operation control apparatus of the domestic cogeneration system described in Patent Document 6, operation control according to the user's life pattern can be performed, and energy saving and economic efficiency are improved.

JP 2000-276460 A Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 11-125448 JP 2003-45460 A JP 2002-335627 A JP 2004-48838 A JP 2006-90240 A

However, the operation control device for a home cogeneration system described in Patent Document 6 has the following problems.
(A) For example, when the user's life pattern changes from night type to morning type, or when the number of families increases due to the return of children due to summer vacation or the like, as shown in FIG. There was a gap between the actual value of the hot water supply load. The deviation in this case is largely due to changes in the user's life pattern and configuration regardless of the water temperature, and the correlation between the water temperature and the hot water supply load is weak as shown in FIG. Therefore, even if the correlation equation between the hot water supply load and the outside air temperature or the water temperature is calculated like the operation control device of the domestic cogeneration system described in Patent Document 6, and the hot water supply load is predicted based on the correlation equation, The hot water supply load was not predicted and the cogeneration system could not be operated efficiently.

(B) In addition, the bath load is used or not used after a certain period (season) (hot water is used in winter, but only shower is used in summer). It depends on the sense of the person. For this reason, the operation control device of the domestic cogeneration system described in Patent Document 6 misrecognizes the timing when the bath load changes, and the hot water supply load prediction may be missed as shown in FIG.

(C) Moreover, since the operation control apparatus of the domestic cogeneration system described in Patent Document 6 calculates the primary energy by shifting the time cycle by one hour and determines the time cycle, the cogeneration system is efficiently used. The method of determining the time cycle for driving is complex.

(D) Moreover, household energy demand changes every day, and the hot water supply load prediction may be missed. The operation control device of the home cogeneration system described in Patent Document 6 does not prescribe a coping method when the energy demand prediction is deviated, and there is a problem that the energy saving performance is greatly reduced when the prediction deviates. there were. Specifically, for example, when the hot water storage tank becomes full earlier than the bath time, a heat dissipation loss occurs, and energy saving performance decreases. On the other hand, if the hot water in the hot water storage tank is insufficient at the bath time, it is necessary to heat the tap water with a burner to supply hot water or to increase the output of the generator 8 even though the power load is small.

(E) Furthermore, when there is a variation in the bath time when the bath load occurs, the predicted bath load may not occur at the predicted bath time. The operation control device of the home cogeneration system described in Patent Document 6 does not consider such a problem at all, and when the bath time is not predicted, the output of the generator is changed frequently, By repeatedly starting and stopping the machine, it was possible to avoid running out of hot water and a tank full.

  The present invention has been made to solve the above-described problems, and an object of the present invention is to provide an operation control device for a cogeneration system that is optimal for the operation of the cogeneration system.

The operation control device for a cogeneration system according to the present invention has the following configuration.
(1) To solve the above problem (a), calculate the correlation between the hot water supply load and the water temperature or the outside air temperature, and determine the operation pattern of the generator based on the calculated correlation. In the apparatus, when the coefficient of determination of the correlation is smaller than a predetermined value, the apparatus has an operation control program that averages past hot water supply loads and determines an operation pattern of the generator so as to cover the average processed hot water supply loads. It is characterized by. In the present specification, “hot water supply load” includes “bath load”.

(2) In the invention described in (1), the hot water supply load is a bath load.

(3) In order to solve the problem (b), in the operation control device of the cogeneration system that predicts the energy load pattern of the prediction target date and determines the operation pattern of the generator, the bath load data is stored in the data When the accumulation or non-accumulation accumulated in the means changes, the hot water supply load on the prediction target day is predicted using the average value of urgent hot water supply load data, and the operation pattern of the generator is determined so as to cover the predicted value of the hot water supply load An operation control program is provided.

(4) In the invention described in (3), the operation control program discards hot water supply load data other than the urgent hot water supply load data when the accumulation presence / absence changes.

(5) In order to solve the problem (c), in the operation control device of the cogeneration system that predicts the energy load pattern of the prediction target day and determines the operation pattern of the generator, When there is a hot water supply load, the primary energy consumption when the generator is operated so as to cover the morning hot water supply load from the last hot water supply load time on the prediction target day, and the time when the morning hot water supply load is generated Compared to the primary energy consumption when the generator is operated so as to cover the morning hot water supply load retroactively, the time cycle in which the primary energy amount is reduced is selected, and the operation pattern of the generator is determined. It has the operation control program to determine. In this specification, “time cycle” refers to a time range from the start time to the final time of the prediction target date.

(6) In order to solve the above-mentioned problem (d), in the operation control device of the cogeneration system that predicts the energy load pattern of the prediction target day and determines the operation pattern of the generator, It has an operation control program for changing the output of the generator when the deviation from the predicted value of the residual heat exceeds a certain amount.

(7) In the invention described in (6), when the operation control program determines that the time when the deviation exceeds a certain amount is before the occurrence of a bath load and the hot water storage tank is full, The output of the generator is suppressed retroactively from the tank full time when the hot water storage tank becomes full.

(8) In the invention described in (6), the operation control program is after a bath load has occurred when the deviation exceeds a certain amount, and when the generator is stopped when the prediction target date is stopped. When it is determined that the tank residual heat of the hot water storage tank is larger than the predicted tank residual heat, the output of the generator is suppressed retroactively from the stop time.

(9) In the invention according to any one of (6) to (8), the operation control program cancels output suppression of the generator when the deviation becomes small. Features.

(10) In order to solve the problem (e), in the operation control device of the cogeneration system that predicts the energy load pattern of the prediction target date and determines the operation pattern of the generator, when the variation in bath time is large An operation control program for calculating a first bath candidate time by subtracting the standard bath time from the average value of the bath time, setting the first bath candidate time as the bath time, and determining an operation pattern of the generator It is characterized by having.

(11) In the invention according to (10), the operation control program calculates a residual heat of the hot water storage tank when the operation pattern of the generator is provisionally determined with the average value of the bath time as the bath time, When it is determined that the tank residual heat of the hot water storage tank always exceeds a predetermined ratio with respect to the tank full tank amount of the hot water storage tank, the standard deviation amount is calculated from the first bath candidate time to the average value of the bath time. The generator is operated at the minimum output until the second bath candidate time obtained by adding only the time.

(12) In the invention described in (10) or (11), the operation control program is to change the generator to an electric power load following operation after a bath load is generated on a prediction target day. Features.

  The operation control device of the cogeneration system according to the present invention made to solve the problem (a) has a low correlation between the hot water supply load and the water temperature or the outside air temperature, and the hot water supply load prediction is likely to be off. Uses the operation pattern of the generator so as to cover the hot water supply load obtained by averaging past hot water supply loads. For this reason, for example, even when there is a large fluctuation in the hot water supply load such as at the turn of the season and it is difficult to predict the hot water supply load, the prediction accuracy is improved by preventing the prediction of the hot water supply load from being greatly deviated, and the cogeneration system is operated efficiently be able to.

  In particular, when a cogeneration system is introduced at home, the bath load accounts for a large proportion of the hot water supply load at home. The operation control device of the cogeneration system according to the present invention obtains the correlation between the bath load and the water temperature or the outside temperature, and determines the generator operation pattern based on the averaged bath load when the correlation is weak. The predicted value of the bath load approaches the actual bath load, and the prediction accuracy can be improved.

  In addition, according to the operation control device of the home cogeneration system according to the present invention made to solve the above-mentioned problem (b), for example, when the bath load changes from the state with the bath load, or the bath load When there is a change from a non-existing state to a present state, the hot water supply load on the prediction target day is predicted using the average value of urgent hot water supply load data, and the generator operation pattern is determined so as to cover the predicted value of the hot water supply load. Even when the usage tendency of the bath changes, it is possible to accurately predict the hot water supply load on the prediction target date using the hot water supply load data approximated to the prediction target date, and to efficiently operate the cogeneration system.

  Moreover, when the presence or absence of accumulation of bath load data changes, bath load data other than urgent bath load data is discarded, so that the accuracy of the hot water supply load can be improved even with a small storage capacity.

  The operation control device of the cogeneration system according to the present invention made to solve the problem (c) covers the hot water supply load in the morning when there is a hot water supply load in the morning on the day after the prediction target date. Primary energy consumption when the generator is operated from the last hot water supply load time on the prediction target day and primary energy when the generator is operated retroactively from the time when the hot water supply load is generated in the morning of the prediction target day Since the generator operation pattern is determined by selecting the time cycle in which the primary energy consumption is reduced by comparing with the consumption, the life of the user who uses the cogeneration system while reducing the number of calculations and the number of handling data The operation pattern of the generator can be determined according to the pattern, and the cogeneration system can be operated efficiently.

  In addition, the operation control device of the cogeneration system according to the present invention made to solve the above problem (d) calculates the tank residual heat of the hot water storage tank, and the tank residual heat is constant with the predicted value of the tank residual heat. When the output deviates beyond the amount, the generator output is changed. Therefore, according to the operation control apparatus for the cogeneration system according to the present invention, the prediction of the hot water supply load can be corrected afterwards by changing the output of the generator, and the cogeneration system can be operated efficiently.

  In this case, when a deviation exceeding a certain amount occurs before the bath load and when it is determined that the hot water tank is full, the output of the generator is suppressed retroactively from the tank full time when the hot water tank is full. By doing so, it is possible to prevent the heat dissipation loss from increasing by reducing the amount of heat collected other than that used for bath load, and to obtain high energy saving performance.

  In addition, when it is determined that a deviation exceeding a certain amount occurs after a bath load, and the residual heat of the hot water storage tank at the time of stopping the generator on the prediction target day is larger than the predicted residual tank tank heat, If the output of the generator is suppressed retroactively from the stop, heat that cannot be consumed on the prediction target day is stored in the hot water storage tank to prevent the heat dissipation loss from increasing, and high energy saving performance can be obtained. .

  Furthermore, when the divergence becomes smaller, the output of the generator is released, and heat is recovered in the hot water storage tank according to the operation pattern, so the heat necessary to cover the hot water supply load is prevented while preventing the hot water tank from being full. It can be recovered.

  In addition, the operation control device of the cogeneration system according to the present invention made to solve the above problem (e) is based on the average value of the bath time when the bath time varies greatly and the bath time is easily predicted. The first bath candidate time is calculated by subtracting the time by the standard deviation, and the generator operation pattern is determined by setting the first bath candidate time to the bath time, so the output of the generator is changed frequently. Even without starting and stopping the generator, it is possible to avoid running out of hot water or a tank full, and the cogeneration system 1 can be operated efficiently.

  In addition to this, the operating pattern of the generator is tentatively determined with the bath time average value as the bath time, and the residual heat of the hot water storage tank is calculated, and the residual heat of the hot water storage tank becomes the tank full capacity of the hot water storage tank. On the other hand, if the predetermined ratio is always exceeded, if no bath load is generated at the first bath candidate time, the hot water storage tank may become full and heat dissipation may occur. In this case, the second bath candidate time is set by adding a time corresponding to the standard deviation to the average value of the bath time, and the generator is operated at the lowest output from the first bath candidate time to the second bath candidate time. Therefore, according to the operation control device of the cogeneration system according to the present invention, it is possible to cover the power load and hot water supply load on the prediction target day with the cogeneration system while preventing the hot water out and the tank full state, and high energy saving performance. Can be secured.

  In addition, after a bath load occurs on the day of the forecast, the generator is changed to a power load following operation, so that after the bath load occurs, excess heat is stored in the hot water storage tank, causing a heat dissipation loss. Can be avoided.

  Although the present invention has a specific problem at first glance, the problem is common in that an effective operation of the cogeneration system is realized by taking a countermeasure against the prediction error.

  Next, an embodiment of an operation control device for a cogeneration system according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

(First embodiment)
FIG. 1 is a schematic configuration diagram of a cogeneration system 1.
The operation control device 30A of the cogeneration system 1 according to the first embodiment predicts the hot water supply load on the prediction target day and creates an operation pattern of the generator 8 (fuel cell, gas engine, etc.). Operation control is performed. The operation control device 30A has a feature in that, when there is no correlation between the water temperature and the hot water supply load, an operation pattern is created by averaging the urgent hot water supply load.

(Schematic configuration of cogeneration system)
A cogeneration system 1 shown in FIG. 1 includes a hot water storage tank 2 having a capacity of 100 to 200 L. The hot water storage tank 2 is always filled with tap water supplied from a water pipe 3 connected to the bottom. A circulation pipe 4 is connected to the bottom and top of the hot water storage tank 2, and the first pump 5 installed in the circulation pipe 4 is driven to take out the water in the hot water storage tank 2 from the bottom and return it to the top. ing. The circulation pipe 4 is provided with a heat exchanger 6 on the downstream side of the first pump 5, and is connected to the heat recovery circulation pipe 7 via the heat exchanger 6. The heat recovery circulation pipe 7 is connected to the generator 8, and the second pump 9 is driven so that the circulating water circulating through the heat recovery circulation pipe 7 recovers the exhaust heat of the generator 8. . Therefore, if the first pump 5 and the second pump 9 are driven while the generator 8 is generating power, the circulating water in the heat recovery circulation pipe 7 is heated by the exhaust heat of the generator 8, and the heat exchanger 6, heat can be transferred from the circulating water in the heat recovery circulation pipe 7 to the water in the circulation pipe 4 to store hot water in the hot water storage tank 2.

  A hot water supply pipe 10 is connected to the upper part of the hot water storage tank 2. The hot water supply pipe 10 includes a general-purpose hot water supply pipe 10A and a bath dedicated hot water supply pipe 10B.

  The general-purpose hot water supply pipe 10 </ b> A supplies hot water to heat equipment other than the bath 16 such as the kitchen 11 </ b> A and the washstand 11 </ b> B. The hot-water supply temperature of the general-purpose hot-water supply pipe 10A is detected by the hot-water supply temperature sensor 12, and when the hot-water supply temperature is higher than the set temperature, room temperature tap water is added by the three-way valve 13, and the hot-water supply temperature is lower than the set temperature. In such a case, the hot water is heated by the gas boiler 14. At this time, the amount of hot water consumed by the thermal device 11 (general-purpose hot water supply load) is measured by the flow meter 15 installed on the downstream side of the three-way valve 13.

The bath-only hot water supply pipe 10 </ b> B supplies hot water to the bath 16. The hot water supply temperature of the hot water supply pipe 10B for the bath is detected by the hot water supply temperature sensor 12, and when the hot water supply temperature is higher than the set temperature, normal temperature tap water is added by the three-way valve 13, and the hot water supply temperature is lower than the set temperature. In this case, the hot water is heated by the gas boiler 14. At this time, the amount of hot water consumed by the bath 16 (bath load) is measured by the flow meter 19.
In the first embodiment, a combination of the general-purpose hot water supply load and the bath load is referred to as a “hot water supply load”.

  On the other hand, the amount of hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 2 is detected by sensing the boundary surface of hot water and tap water with the hot water storage temperature sensor 20. The temperature of the tap water is detected by a water thermometer 21 attached to the water pipe 3.

  The generator 8 is connected to a power line 22 for extracting a power generation output, and is connected to a distribution board 23. The distribution board 23 is also connected to a commercial power line 24 for supplying commercial power. The power generation output and the commercial power are connected to the power equipment 25 such as a lighting fixture, a television, an air conditioner, and a personal computer by connecting the power generation output and the commercial power. It comes to supply. A wattmeter 26 is installed on the distribution board 23 to measure the amount of power consumed by the power device 25 (power load).

  The generator 8, hot water temperature sensor 12, three-way valve 13, gas boiler 14, flow meter 15, hot water temperature sensor 17, three-way valve 18, flow meter 19, hot water temperature sensor 20, water temperature meter 21, distribution board 23, watt meter Operation control device 30A is connected to 26 and the like.

(Control block of operation control device)
FIG. 2 is an electric block diagram of the operation control device 30A.
The operation control device 30A is a well-known microcomputer and includes an input / output interface 31, a CPU 32, a ROM 33, and a RAM 34. The input / output interface 31 is connected to the hot water temperature sensor 12, the flow meter 15, the hot water temperature sensor 17, the flow meter 19, the hot water storage temperature sensor 20, the water temperature meter 21, the power meter 26, and the like, and inputs signals. Here, “input data” means energy load data, hot water storage temperature data, hot water supply amount data, water temperature (outside air temperature) data, data detected by each sensor such as hot water temperature data, and initial data, etc. It shall mean the input data. The “energy load data” includes power load data obtained by measuring the power load and hot water supply load data obtained by measuring the hot water supply load.

  The input / output interface 31 is connected to the generator 8, the three-way valve 13, the gas boiler 14, the three-way valve 18, the distribution board 23, and the like, and outputs signals. Here, “output data” refers to operation control data for controlling the operation of the generator 8, data for controlling the operation of control devices such as the three-way valves 13 and 18, the gas boiler 14, and the distribution board 23, and is transmitted to other control devices. Data that is output to the outside of the operation control device 30A, such as transmission data to be transmitted.

The ROM 33 is a read-only nonvolatile memory that stores various programs necessary for operating the cogeneration system 1. In the first embodiment, the operation control program 35 </ b> A is stored in the ROM 33. The operation control program 35A will be described later.
The RAM 34 is a readable / writable volatile memory that temporarily stores data and programs necessary for executing the program of the ROM 33 and the like, and accumulates and stores various data.
The HDD 37 is a nonvolatile memory that can read and write data and programs. The HDD 37 is provided with a database 36. The database 36 stores various data such as power load data, hot water supply load data, and bath load data. In this sense, the database 36 corresponds to “data storage means”.

(Operation control program)
FIG. 3 is a flowchart of the operation control program shown in FIG.
The operation control device 30A reads the operation control program 35A from the ROM 33 and executes it at a predetermined time on the day before the prediction target date.

  First, in step 1 (hereinafter abbreviated as “S1”), the operation control program 35A measures the hot water supply load data measured by the flow meters 15 and 19 and the water temperature type 21 as integrated (average) data at a predetermined interval. Water temperature data is accumulated and stored in the database 36. The predetermined interval can be arbitrarily set, and is preferably set to 30 minutes to 2 hours in consideration of the data capacity of a general microcomputer. In the first embodiment, the predetermined interval is set to 1 hour.

  In S2, the hot water supply load data and the water temperature data for the same day as the prediction target day are read from the database 36 for a predetermined period. Here, the “prediction target date” refers to a date on which the operation of the generator 8 is scheduled to be controlled according to the operation pattern. In the first embodiment, the day after the operation pattern creation date is set as the prediction target date. The reason why the data on the same day as the prediction target day is read is because it is considered that the family life is patterned for each day of the week. The “predetermined period” can be set arbitrarily, but it is preferable that it is for the past 4 to 12 weeks in consideration of variations in past hot water supply load data and water temperature data, climate change, the number of calculations, and the like. In the first embodiment, the predetermined period is set to 4 weeks.

  In S3, urgent water temperature data on the prediction target date is read from the database 36. “Urgent water temperature data on the prediction target day” refers to water temperature data from three days to one week before the prediction target day, taking into account that the climate changes greatly, such as at the turn of the season. In 1st Embodiment, the water temperature data from the prediction object day to five days ago are read.

  In S4, a correlation equation (hot water supply load = a × water temperature + b) for each time zone is calculated from the hot water supply load data and the water temperature data read in S2 using the least square method. This is because the water temperature data and the hot water supply load data vary for each day of the week and every hour. In step S5, a determination coefficient for the time period is calculated, and it is determined whether the determination coefficient is equal to or greater than a predetermined value. The “predetermined value” can be arbitrarily set to determine the strength of the correlation between the hot water supply load and the water temperature, and is set to 0.5 in the first embodiment.

  When the determination coefficient is 0.5 or more (S5: YES), in S6, the average water temperature data read in S3 is used as the water temperature of the prediction target day as the water temperature of the prediction target day. . This is because, for example, when the climate changes suddenly, such as at the turn of the season, the water temperature fluctuates greatly, and using the water temperature data of the past several weeks may cause the predicted water temperature of the prediction target day to deviate significantly from the actual water temperature. For this reason, the urgent water temperature data is averaged and used so that the predicted value of the water temperature does not greatly deviate from the actual water temperature. In S7, the hot water supply load in the time zone of the prediction target day is calculated from the correlation equation calculated in S4 and the water temperature of the prediction target day calculated in S6. Then, in S8, it is determined whether or not the hot water supply load has been calculated until the final time of the prediction target date. When the hot water supply load is not calculated until the final time of the prediction target day (S8: NO), the process returns to S4, and the hot water supply load in the next time zone is calculated.

  On the other hand, when it is determined that the coefficient of determination is not 0.5 or more (S5: NO), the correlation between the hot water supply load and the water temperature is not strong, so that the prediction target date is calculated using the correlation function as described above. Even if the hot water supply load is predicted, there is a high possibility that it will be unpredictable. Therefore, in this case, in S9, hot water supply load data corresponding to four weeks on the same day as the prediction target day, which is considered to have the same life pattern on the prediction target day, is read from the database 36 and averaged, and predicted. Predict the hot water load on the target day. That is, the hot water supply load is predicted only from the hot water supply load data without using the water temperature data. Then, in S8, it is determined whether or not the hot water supply load has been calculated until the final time of the prediction target date. When the hot water supply load is not calculated until the final time of the prediction target day (S8: NO), the process returns to S4, and the hot water supply load in the next time zone is calculated.

  As described above, the hot water supply load is calculated for each time period from the start time to the end time of the prediction target day. When the calculation of the hot water supply load is completed up to the final time of the prediction target day (S8: YES), the process proceeds to S10, and the hot water supply load calculated in the processes of S4 to S9 is used to determine the generator 8 based on the basic logic of operation control. Determine the driving pattern for the forecast target day. Here, since various basic logics for operation control have been proposed in the past (for example, prior arts 1 to 5), detailed description thereof will be omitted. To give a simple explanation with an example, for example, a plurality of operation patterns are temporarily determined while shifting the start / stop times of the generator 8 so as to cover the hot water supply load on the prediction target day, and the primary energy amount of each operation pattern is calculated. Then, the operation pattern that minimizes the primary energy amount is determined as the operation pattern on the prediction target day. When the operation pattern of the generator 8 on the prediction target date is determined in this way, the process is terminated.

(Function and effect)
Therefore, the operation control device 30A of the cogeneration system 1 of the first embodiment has a low correlation between the hot water supply load and the water temperature or the outside air temperature as shown in FIG. The operation pattern of the generator 8 is used so as to cover the hot water supply load obtained by averaging past hot water supply loads (see S5: NO, S9, and S10 in FIG. 3). For this reason, for example, when the season changes from spring to summer, or when the family composition changes due to a child returning home during the summer vacation, the hot water load is averaged even if the hot water load varies greatly and it is difficult to predict the hot water load. By determining the operation pattern of the generator 8 using the generated one, the prediction of the hot water supply load is prevented from greatly deviating from the actual hot water supply load, the hot water load prediction accuracy is improved, and the cogeneration system 1 is operated efficiently. can do.

(Second Embodiment)
Next, 2nd Embodiment of the operation control apparatus of the cogeneration system which concerns on this invention is described with reference to drawings. FIG. 4 is a flowchart of the operation control program 35B stored in the operation control device 30B of the cogeneration system 1 according to the second embodiment.
The operation control device 30B of the second embodiment is different from the first embodiment in that the hot water supply load is predicted based on the correlation between the bath load and the water temperature. Therefore, here, it demonstrates centering on a different point from 1st Embodiment, and it abbreviate | omits description suitably using the same code | symbol for the structure same as 1st Embodiment in drawing.

  The ratio of the bath load to the hot water supply load is large, and if the prediction of the bath load is deviated, there is a high possibility that the prediction of the hot water supply load is deviated. Therefore, the operation control program 35B shown in FIG. 4 determines the operation pattern of the generator 8 paying attention to the bath load.

(Operation control program)
Specifically, the operation control program 10B accumulates the bath load as a half-day or one-day integrated (average) data based on the measurement result of the flow meter 19 in S11 shown in FIG. The reason why the number of data may be smaller than in the first embodiment is that the bath load is generated only once to several times a day, so that the control is based on the hot water supply load as in the first embodiment. This is because it is not necessary to finely divide the accumulated time.

  In S12, the bath load data and the water temperature data (for the past 4 to 12 weeks) on the same day as the prediction target day are read from the database 36. Note that the data may be read from the database 36 for the urgent week for the prediction target date. In S13, urgent water temperature data (for 3 days to 1 week) is read from the database 36 on the prediction target day. In S14, a correlation equation is calculated from the bath load data and the water temperature data read in S12 by using the least square method or the like for each integration time zone. At this time, the water temperature data is the average water temperature in the time zone when the bath load occurs.

  In S15, a determination coefficient is calculated from the correlation equation obtained in S14, and it is determined whether the determination coefficient is equal to or greater than a predetermined value. The “predetermined value” can be arbitrarily set in order to check the strength of the correlation between the bath load data and the water temperature data, and is set to 0.5 in the second embodiment.

  When the determination coefficient is 0.5 or more (S15: YES), there is a strong correlation between the bath load and the water temperature, and even if the bath load is predicted using past data, it is difficult to deviate. Therefore, in S16, the urgent water temperature data read from the database 36 in S13 is averaged to obtain the water temperature in each time zone, and the obtained water temperature is applied to the correlation equation calculated in S14 to calculate the bath load on the prediction target day. . Thereafter, in S17, the operation pattern of the generator 8 on the prediction target date is determined based on the operation control logic so as to cover the bath load calculated in S16, and the process is terminated. Since the operation control logic is known, the description thereof is omitted.

  On the other hand, when the determination coefficient is less than 0.5 (S15: NO), the correlation between the bath load and the water temperature is weak, and even if the bath load is predicted using the correlation equation calculated in S14, There is a high possibility that the prediction will be lost. Therefore, in S18, hot water supply load data of urgent (for example, three days before the prediction target date) is read from the database 36 and averaged to calculate the bath load on the prediction target date. And in S17, the operation pattern of the next day of the generator 8 is determined based on the basic logic of the operation control so as to cover the bath load of the prediction target day obtained by the average process, and the process is terminated. Since the basic logic of operation control is already known, the description is omitted.

(Function and effect)
When the cogeneration system 1 is introduced at home, the bath load accounts for a large proportion of the hot water supply load at home. Therefore, for example, when the season shifts from spring to summer, the user may change from a bathing method in which the bath 16 is filled with hot water to a bathing method in which the bath 16 is not filled with water, and the usage form of the bath 16 may change. Further, for example, when the season shifts from summer to autumn, the user may change from a bathing method in which the bath 16 is not filled with a bath to a bathing method in which the bath 16 is bathed, and the usage mode of the bath 16 may change. These changes in usage tendency are not necessarily related to the water temperature or the outside air temperature, and are largely dependent on the user's sense and are difficult to predict.

  In this regard, the operation control device 30B of the cogeneration system 1 according to the second embodiment generates power based on the predicted bath load value obtained by averaging the bath load data when the correlation between the bath load and the water temperature is weak. The operation pattern of the machine 8 is determined (see S15: YES, S18, S19 in FIG. 4). Therefore, according to the operation control device 30B of the cogeneration system 1 according to the second embodiment, even when it is difficult to predict the bath load at the turn of the season, the predicted value of the bath load is brought close to the actual bath load, Prediction accuracy can be improved.

(Third embodiment)
Next, a third embodiment of the operation control device of the cogeneration system according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. FIG. 5 is a flowchart of the operation control program 35C stored in the operation control device 30C that controls the operation of the cogeneration system 1 according to the third embodiment. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of the relationship between the actual value and the predicted value of the bath load, where the vertical axis indicates the bath load (MJ), and the horizontal axis indicates the date.

  For example, when the user changes from a bathing method in which the user fills the bath to a bathing method in which the bath is not filled, as shown in FIG. May change. This change is not necessarily related to the water temperature, but largely depends on the sense of the user. Therefore, the operation control device 30C of the third embodiment is different from the first embodiment in that the data used for the hot water supply load is changed depending on the presence or absence of the bath load, and the other points are common. Therefore, here, the operation control program 35C different from the first embodiment will be described in detail, and the same reference numerals as those in the first embodiment will be used in the drawings for the points common to the first embodiment, and the description will be omitted as appropriate. .

(Operation control program)
As shown in FIG. 5, the operation control program 35B accumulates bath load data as half-day or one-day integrated (average) data and creates a database in S21. In S 22, the bath load data (for the past 4 to 12 weeks) on the same day as the prediction target day is read from the database 36 of the HDD 37. Alternatively, the bath load data for an urgent week is read from the database 36. In S23, an integrated value (for one day) of the read bath load data is calculated.

  In S24, it is determined whether a past bath load has occurred. If a past bath load has occurred (S24: YES), it is further determined in S25 whether a bath load has occurred in the urgent X days. “Urgent X days” refers to several days immediately before the prediction target date when the external environment such as the climate is considered to be the same as the prediction target date. In the third embodiment, it means three days immediately before the prediction target date. When the bath load is generated for three days immediately before the prediction target date (S25: YES), the user continues the bathing method of filling the bath 16, and the usage tendency of the bath 16 does not change. means. Therefore, in S26, the hot water supply load data for the same day of the week as the prediction target day is read from the database 36, and the hot water supply load on the prediction target day is calculated for each time zone. And in S29, after determining the operation pattern of the generator 8 based on the hot water supply load prediction calculated by S26, a process is complete | finished.

  On the other hand, when the bath load has not occurred for three days immediately before the prediction target date, it is considered that the bathing method in which the user fills the bath 16 is changed to the bathing method in which the bath 16 is not filled, and the past accumulated Even if the (average) data is used to predict the hot water supply load, there is a high possibility that it will be unpredictable. Since such integrated (average) data is considered not to be used in future hot water supply load prediction, in S27, data other than the three days immediately before the prediction target date are discarded. As a result, past hot water supply load data cannot be used, and the storage capacity of the HDD 37 increases.

  In S28, the hot water supply load data for three days immediately before the prediction target date is read from the database 36, an average value is calculated, and the hot water supply load on the prediction target date is predicted for each time zone using the calculated average value. . Thereby, the hot water supply load data that most closely approximates the usage trend of the prediction target day can be used to predict the hot water supply load on the prediction target day, and the prediction accuracy of the hot water supply load is improved. And in S29, after determining the operation pattern of the generator 8 based on the hot water supply load prediction calculated by S28, a process is complete | finished.

  By the way, when the past bath load has not occurred (S24: NO), it is further determined in S30 whether the bath load has occurred during the three days immediately before the prediction target date. If the bath load has not occurred for three days immediately before the prediction target date (S30: NO), the user continues the bathing method in which the bath 16 is not filled with water, and the usage tendency of the bath 16 does not change. , The past hot water supply load data is read from the database 36 to calculate the hot water supply load on the prediction target day. And in S29, after determining the operation pattern of the generator 8 based on the hot water supply load prediction calculated by S31, a process is complete | finished.

  On the other hand, if a bath load occurs during the three days immediately before the prediction target date (S30: YES), the bathing method in which the user does not fill the bath 16 is changed to the bathing method in which the bath 16 is filled. It means that the usage tendency has changed. Therefore, the processing after S27 is executed. Since the processing after S27 has been described above, the description thereof will be omitted.

(Function and effect)
Accordingly, the operation control device 30C of the cogeneration system according to the third embodiment, as shown in FIG. 6, for example, has a bath load after July 17, although there was a bath load until July 16. When there is no more, the hot water supply load on the prediction target date (July 20) is predicted for each time period using the average value of the hot water supply load data generated during the three days immediately before the prediction target date, and the hot water supply load is predicted. The operation pattern of the generator 8 is determined so as to cover the value (see S24: YES, S25: NO, S27 to S29, S24: NO, S30: YES, S27 to S29 in FIG. 5). Therefore, the operation control device 30C of the cogeneration system according to the third embodiment, as shown in FIG. 6, for example, has a bath load until July 16, but has a bath load after July 17. Even if the usage trend of the bath 16 changes as if it disappeared, it is actually in the three days (July 17, 18, 19) immediately before the prediction target date that is considered to be approximated to July 20, which is the prediction target date. Therefore, the hot water supply load on the prediction target day can be accurately predicted using the generated hot water supply load data, and the cogeneration system 1 can be operated efficiently.

  Moreover, according to the operation control device 30C of the cogeneration system 1 according to the third embodiment, when the bath load data is acquired continuously for 3 days and not stored in the database 36, it is determined that the presence or absence of the bath load has changed. Since the hot water supply load data before July 16 excluding the hot water supply load data for three days immediately before the prediction target date is discarded (see S27 in FIG. 5), the accuracy of the hot water supply load is improved even if the storage capacity of the HDD 37 is small. Can be made.

(Fourth embodiment)
Next, a fourth embodiment of the operation control device for a cogeneration system according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. FIG. 7 is a flowchart of the operation control program 35D stored in the operation control device 30D that controls the operation of the cogeneration system 1 according to the fourth embodiment. FIG. 8 is a conceptual diagram of operation that covers the hot water supply load HIA that occurs in the morning on the day after the prediction target day when the operation control program 35D shown in FIG. 5 is executed. The vertical axis indicates power (W), and the horizontal axis Indicates the time.

  When the operation control device 30D of the fourth embodiment covers the hot water supply load HIA generated in the morning on the day after the prediction target day by operating the generator 8 after the final hot water supply load time on the prediction target day, as shown in FIG. Primary energy consumption (refer to Y1 in the figure) and primary energy consumption when operating the generator 8 retroactively from the time when the hot water supply load is generated in the morning on the day following the prediction target day (see Y2 in the figure) This is different from the first embodiment in that it is determined which one is smaller and the time cycle of the prediction target day is made variable. Therefore, here, it demonstrates centering on the point which is different from 1st Embodiment, a common point attaches | subjects the same code | symbol to drawing, and abbreviate | omits description suitably.

(Operation control program)
As shown in FIG. 7, in S41, the operation control program 35D obtains the hot water supply load data measured by the flow meters 15 and 19 and the electric power measured by the power meter 26 as integrated (average) data of about 30 minutes to 2 hours. Load data is accumulated and stored in the database 36 of the HDD 37. And in S42, the hot water supply load and electric power load of a prediction object day are estimated for every time slot | zone. Since this prediction method is known, its description is omitted.

  And in S43, it is investigated whether the hot water supply load HIA generate | occur | produces in the morning of the day following a prediction object day. When the hot water supply load HIA does not occur in the morning of the next day of the prediction target date (S43: NO), it is not necessary to cover the hot water supply load on the next day of the prediction target day by operating the generator 8 on the prediction target day. Therefore, in S49, when the operation pattern of the generator 8 is determined so as to cover the predicted value of the power load and the predicted value of the hot water supply load on the prediction target day, the operation time with the smallest primary energy consumption is selected, The operation pattern of the generator 8 is determined.

  On the other hand, when it is predicted that a hot water supply load HIA will occur in the morning of the day following the prediction target day (S43: YES), in S44, the hot water supply load HIA generated in the morning of the prediction target day is calculated as the prediction target day. When the generator 8 is operated from the last hot water supply load time and covered by the operation (see Y1 in FIG. 8), the primary energy consumption is calculated. Explaining by taking Y1 in FIG. 8 as an example, the generator 8 corresponds to the amount of heat of the hot water supply load HIA that is considered to occur in the morning of the prediction target day from the last hot water supply load time (22:00) on the prediction target day. Is used as the primary energy consumption when the hot water supply load HIA generated in the morning of the day following the prediction target day is covered by the operation of the generator 8 on the prediction target day. In this case, since there is a time difference between the use time of the hot water supply load HIA generated in the morning on the day after the prediction target date and the power generation time of the generator 8, the amount of heat (HIA + heat dissipation loss) in consideration of the heat dissipation loss during that time Also, the generator 8 is caused to generate electricity and collected in the hot water storage tank 2.

  In S45, the hot water supply load HIA generated in the morning on the day following the prediction target date is covered by the operation of the generator 8 retroactively from the time when the hot water supply load HIA occurs in the morning on the prediction target day (FIG. 8). Primary energy consumption) is calculated. Explaining by taking Y2 in FIG. 8 as an example, the hot water supply load HIA generated in the morning of the prediction target day retroactively from the occurrence time (8:00) of the hot water supply load HIA generated in the morning of the prediction target day. The amount of fuel consumed by the generator 8 when the generator 8 is operated by the amount of heat generated is the hot water supply load HIA generated in the morning of the next day of the prediction target day, and the hot water supply load HIA is generated in the morning of the next day of the prediction target day. The amount of primary energy consumed when the generator 8 is operated retroactively from the starting time.

  In S46, the primary energy consumption used for the operation of the generator 8 on the prediction target day calculated in S44 is smaller than the primary energy consumption used for the operation of the generator 8 on the next day of the prediction target date calculated in S45. Determine whether or not. That is, it is determined from the viewpoint of energy saving that it is preferable to cover the hot water supply load generated in the morning on the day after the prediction target day by operating the generator 8 on the day after the prediction target day.

  When it is determined that the primary energy consumption used for the operation of the generator 8 on the prediction target day calculated in S44 is smaller than the primary energy consumption used for the operation of the generator 8 on the day following the prediction target date calculated in S45. (S46: YES), the time cycle of the prediction target day is set to 0:00 to 36:00. That is, the time until 12:00 of the next day of the prediction target date is included in the time cycle of the prediction target date. In S49, the operation time of the generator 8 is changed to cover the power load and hot water supply load on the prediction target day and the hot water supply load HIA generated in the morning of the prediction target day in the range of 0:00 to 36:00. While calculating the primary energy consumption, the operation time of the generator 8 with the smallest primary energy consumption is selected to determine the operation pattern of the generator 8.

  On the other hand, it was determined that the primary energy used for the operation of the generator 8 on the prediction target day calculated in S44 is not smaller than the primary energy used for the operation of the generator 8 on the prediction target day calculated in S45. In this case (S46: NO), in S48, the time cycle of the prediction target day is set to 0:00 to 24:00. That is, the day following the prediction target date is not included in the time cycle. In S49, the primary energy consumption is calculated while changing the operation time of the generator 8 so as to cover the power load and the hot water supply load on the prediction target day in the range of 0:00 to 24:00, and the most primary energy consumption. The operation time of the generator 8 with a smaller value is selected and the operation pattern of the generator 8 is determined. In this case, the hot water supply load HIA generated in the morning of the next day of the prediction target day is covered when the generator 8 is operated in the time cycle of the next day of the prediction target day.

(Function and effect)
Therefore, the operation control device 30D of the cogeneration system 1 according to the fourth embodiment covers the hot water supply load HIA when there is a hot water supply load HIA from 8:00 on the day after the prediction target day, for example, as shown in FIG. In addition, when the generator 8 is operated from the last hot water supply load time 22:00 on the prediction target day (see Y1 in the figure), the time 8 when the hot water supply load HIA is generated in the morning on the next day of the prediction target date. When the generator 8 is operated retroactively from 0:00 (see Y2 in the figure), the primary energy consumption is compared, and the time cycle in which the primary energy consumption is reduced is 0: 00 to 36:00 or 0: 00 to 24 0:00 is selected to determine the operation pattern of the generator 8 (see S43: YES, S44 to S49 in FIG. 7). Therefore, according to the operation control device 30D of the cogeneration system 1 according to the fourth embodiment, the use of the cogeneration system 1 while changing the time cycle for operating the generator 8 with a small number of calculations and the number of handling data. The operation pattern of the generator 8 can be determined according to the life pattern of the person, and the cogeneration system can be operated efficiently.

  Specifically, when the user's life pattern is a night type, the power load generated after the final hot water supply load time on the prediction target day is covered by the power generation of the generator 8, and the prediction is performed using the exhaust heat generated during the power generation. It becomes possible to cover the hot water supply load HIA generated in the morning of the next day of the target day, and the primary energy consumption can be reduced. Therefore, in this case, the energy cycle of the cogeneration system 1 is improved by setting the time cycle of the generator 8 to 0:00 to 36:00 and controlling the operation of the generator 8 across 24:00. be able to.

  On the other hand, when the user's life pattern is the morning type, if the generator 8 is operated from the last hot water supply load time on the prediction target day and heat is stored in the hot water storage tank 2 to cover the morning hot water supply load HIA, the heat dissipation loss is The primary energy consumption increases. Therefore, in this case, the time cycle of the generator 8 is set to 0: 00 to 24:00, the generator 8 is operated on the next day of the prediction target day, and the hot water supply load HIA generated in the morning on the next day of the prediction target day The person who covers can improve the energy saving performance of the cogeneration system 1.

(Fifth embodiment)
Next, a fifth embodiment of the operation control apparatus for a cogeneration system according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. FIG. 9 is a flowchart of the operation control program 35E stored in the operation control device 30E that controls the operation of the cogeneration system 1 according to the fifth embodiment of the present invention.
The operation control device 30E according to the fifth embodiment is configured to prevent the hot water tank 2 from becoming full or hot water shortage by resetting the bath time on the prediction target date when the variation in the bath time is large. This is different from the first embodiment. Therefore, here, the description will focus on the points that are different from the first embodiment, and the common points will be denoted by the same reference numerals in the drawings, and description thereof will be omitted as appropriate.

(Operation control program)
As shown in FIG. 9, the operation control program 35E first accumulates hot water supply load data and power load data as integrated (average) data of about 30 minutes to 2 hours in S51 and accumulates them in the database 36 of the HDD 37. And in S52, according to a known method, the hot water supply load and the power load on the prediction target day are predicted for each time zone, and the operation pattern of the generator 8 is determined. In S53, it is determined whether or not a predetermined time has elapsed. This predetermined time sets the time for monitoring the tank residual heat of the hot water storage tank 2, and can be arbitrarily set as long as this purpose can be achieved. In the fifth embodiment, 1 hour is set as the predetermined time from the immediately preceding predetermined time measurement so that the residual heat of the tank is monitored every hour. It waits until 1 hour passes (S53: NO).

  When one hour has elapsed (S53: YES), the remaining heat of the hot water storage tank 2 is examined based on the temperature detection result of the hot water temperature sensor 20 in S54. Then, the predicted value of the tank residual heat corresponding to the time when the tank residual heat was examined is read from the database 36 of the HDD 37. Then, the difference between the residual heat of the hot water storage tank 2 and the predicted value of the residual tank heat is examined. After that, in S55, in order to check whether the hot water has run out or the hot water storage tank 2 is full, it is confirmed whether or not the difference between the actual value of the tank residual heat and the predicted value of the tank residual heat exceeds a certain amount.

  If it is determined that the deviation does not exceed a certain amount (S55: NO), the process proceeds directly to S60. On the other hand, if the deviation exceeds a certain amount (S55: YES), it is checked in S56 whether the time is before or after the occurrence of the bath load. This is because the necessity of storing heat in the hot water storage tank 2 before and after the bath load is different.

  If it is before the occurrence of a bath load (S56: before the occurrence), the tank heat after the time when the tank residual heat is examined on the prediction target day is examined. Specifically, the heat remaining in the hot water storage tank 2 at the time is calculated based on the detection result of the hot water supply temperature sensor 20, and is set as the tank residual heat Hsa. Moreover, the operation pattern of the generator 8 from the said time to the prediction target date final time is read, and the heat recovery amount recovered in the hot water storage tank 2 from the time to the prediction target date final time is predicted. Moreover, the predicted value of the hot water supply load from the said time to the prediction target day final time is read from the predicted value of the hot water supply load predicted in S52 and stored in the database 37. Furthermore, the heat dissipation loss from the said time to the prediction target day final time is calculated.

  The tank heat is examined from these results. That is, by adding the predicted value of the heat recovery amount to the tank residual heat Hsa, the amount of heat stored in the hot water storage tank 2 from the time until the prediction target day final time is calculated, and the heat amount is predicted from the time after that time. The predicted value of the hot water supply load consumed by the last time on the target day is subtracted. Further, the subtracted result is multiplied by the heat dissipation loss, and the tank heat that is predicted to remain in the hot water storage tank 2 at the final time of the prediction target date is calculated.

  Thereafter, in S58, it is checked whether or not the tank heat calculated in S57 exceeds a threshold value, and it is checked whether or not the hot water storage tank 2 is full.

  On the other hand, if it is determined that the tank heat exceeds the threshold (S58: YES), in S59, the tank full tank time when the hot water storage tank 2 is full is calculated, and the generator 8 is retroactive from the tank full tank time. Suppress output. Thereby, the heat | fever collect | recovered by the hot water storage tank 2 after the said time is reduced, and it prevents that the hot water storage tank 2 becomes a full tank state. Thereafter, the process proceeds to S60.

  In S60, it is determined whether or not the final time of the prediction target date has elapsed. If the final time of the prediction target date has not elapsed (S60: NO), the process returns to S53, and the residual heat of the hot water storage tank 2 is monitored. On the other hand, when the final time of the prediction target day has elapsed (S60: YES), the process is terminated.

  On the other hand, when the tank heat does not exceed the threshold value (S58: NO), it is confirmed in S61 whether heat shortage occurs. The shortage of heat is predicted to be consumed from the time after the time until the final time of the prediction target day from the value obtained by adding the residual heat of the tank at the time and the heat recovery amount from the time after that to the final time of the prediction target day It is obtained by subtracting the predicted value of the hot water supply load. If the heat shortage does not occur (S61: NO), the process proceeds to S60. Since the processing after S60 has been described above, a description thereof will be omitted.

  When heat shortage occurs (S61: YES), in S62, output suppression is canceled and the generator 8 is operated according to a predetermined operation pattern. As a result, the heat recovery amount is increased, and heat is stored in the hot water storage tank 2 so as to cover the predicted value of the hot water supply load.

  By the way, when the time at which the difference between the actual tank residual heat and the predicted value exceeds a certain amount is after the occurrence of a bath load (S56: after occurrence), if the generator 8 is operated as it is according to the operation pattern, The heat stored in the hot water storage tank 2 cannot be consumed and the heat dissipation loss increases. Therefore, in S63, the tank residual heat at the time when the generator 8 is stopped on the prediction target day is calculated, and whether or not the tank residual heat when the generator stops on the operation day becomes larger than the hot water supply load predicted in S53. Judging. When the residual heat of the tank when the generator is stopped on the operation day does not become larger than the predicted value of the hot water supply load (S63: NO), the process proceeds to S61. Since the processing after S61 has been described above, a description thereof will be omitted.

  On the other hand, when the residual heat of the tank when the generator is stopped on the day of operation becomes larger than the predicted value of the hot water supply load (S63: YES), the output is suppressed retroactively from the time of stopping the generator 8 on the prediction target day in S64. By doing so, it approaches the predicted value of the hot water supply load. Thereby, heat can be stored in the hot water storage tank 2 so as to cover the hot water supply load other than the bath load while securing the bath load. Thereafter, the process proceeds to S60. Since the processing after S60 has been described above, a description thereof will be omitted.

(Function and effect)
Accordingly, the operation control device 30E of the cogeneration system 1 according to the fifth embodiment calculates the tank residual heat of the hot water storage tank 2, and when the tank residual heat deviates from the predicted value of the tank residual heat beyond a certain amount. Then, the output of the generator 8 is changed (see S55 in FIG. 9: YES, S56 to S64). Therefore, according to the operation control apparatus 30E of the cogeneration system 1 according to the fifth embodiment, the prediction of the bath load is corrected afterwards by changing the output of the generator 8, and the cogeneration system 1 is efficiently performed. You can drive.

  In addition, according to the operation control device 30E of the cogeneration system 1 according to the fifth embodiment, a deviation exceeding a certain amount between the tank residual heat of the hot water storage tank 2 and the tank residual heat occurs before the bath load, Further, when it is determined that the hot water storage tank 2 is full, the output of the generator 8 is suppressed retroactively from the tank full tank time when the hot water storage tank 2 becomes full (S56 in FIG. 9: before occurrence, S57, S58: YES, see S59), a heat recovery amount other than that used for bath load can be reduced to prevent an increase in heat dissipation loss, and high energy saving performance can be obtained.

  Further, according to the operation control device 30E of the cogeneration system 1 according to the fifth embodiment, a deviation exceeding a certain amount between the tank residual heat of the hot water storage tank 2 and the tank residual heat occurs after the bath load, and When it is determined that the tank residual heat of the hot water storage tank 2 is larger than the predicted tank residual heat when the generator 8 is stopped on the prediction target day, the output of the generator 8 is suppressed retroactively from the stop time. Therefore (S56 of FIG. 9: after generation, refer to S63 and S64), hot water that cannot be consumed on the prediction target day is stored in the hot water storage tank 2 to prevent an increase in heat dissipation loss, and high energy saving performance can be obtained.

  Furthermore, according to the operation control device 30E of the cogeneration system 1 according to the fifth embodiment, when the difference between the tank residual heat of the hot water storage tank 2 and the predicted value of the tank residual heat exceeds a certain amount, power generation is reduced. Since the output suppression of the machine 8 is released and heat is recovered in the hot water storage tank 2 according to the operation pattern (see S61 in FIG. 9: YES, S61), it is necessary to cover the hot water supply load while preventing the hot water storage tank 2 from being full. Heat can be recovered.

(Sixth embodiment)
Next, a sixth embodiment of the operation control apparatus for a cogeneration system according to the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. FIG. 10 is a flowchart of the operation control program 35F stored in the operation control device 30F that controls the operation of the cogeneration system 1 according to the sixth embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating an example of a standard normal distribution of bath time, where the vertical axis indicates the occurrence probability and the horizontal axis indicates the time. FIG. 12 is a diagram illustrating an example of an operation pattern determined by the operation control program 35F illustrated in FIG. 10, in which the vertical axis indicates tank residual heat and the horizontal axis indicates time. FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of an operation pattern determined by the operation control program 35F shown in FIG. 10, where the vertical axis indicates tank residual heat and the horizontal axis indicates time.

  The operation control device 30F of the sixth embodiment is different from the first embodiment in that when the variation in the bath time is large, the predicted bath time is reset to prevent the hot water tank 2 from being full or hot. To do. Therefore, here, the description will focus on the points that are different from the first embodiment, and the common points will be denoted by the same reference numerals in the drawings, and description thereof will be omitted as appropriate.

(Operation control program)
As shown in FIG. 10, the operation control program 35F reads, for example, the bath time (for the past 4 to 12 weeks) on the same day as the prediction target date from the database 37 of the HDD 37 in S71, and calculates the deviation of the past bath time. calculate. Then, in S72, it is determined whether or not the bath time deviation is equal to or less than a predetermined value. The “predetermined value” can be arbitrarily set so that the probability that the bath time occurs at the predetermined time can be checked. When the deviation of the bath time is less than the predetermined value and the variation in the bath time is small (S72: YES), the occurrence time of the bath 16 is stabilized, and the hot water supply load on the prediction target day is calculated using the past hot water supply load data. Since it means that it is difficult to make a prediction even if it is predicted, the processing is terminated as it is.

  On the other hand, when the deviation of the bath time exceeds a predetermined value and the variation in the bath time is large (S72: NO), the generation time of the bath 16 is not stable, and the hot water supply load on the prediction target date is based only on the past hot water supply load data. If it predicts, it means that there is a high possibility of being out of prediction. Therefore, in S73, for example, a standard normal distribution of bath times as shown in FIG. 11 is calculated in order to specify the time zone in which the bath load occurs.

  Then, in S74 of FIG. 10, as shown in FIG. 11, the average value of the bath time is obtained from the standard normal distribution of the bath time, and the time with the highest probability of occurrence of the bath load is specified. Then, the first bath candidate time shown in FIG. 11 is calculated by subtracting the standard deviation σ from the average value. Further, the second bath candidate time shown in FIG. 11 is calculated by adding the standard deviation σ (2 hours) to the average value. Therefore, the time zone from the first bath candidate time to the second bath candidate time shown in FIG. 11 is a time zone with a high probability that a bath load will occur.

  Then, in S75 of FIG. 10, when the operation pattern is provisionally determined with the average bath time as the bath time, it is checked how much heat remains in the hot water storage tank 2 in each time zone of the prediction target day. It is checked whether or not the heat always becomes X percent or less with respect to the full tank amount of the hot water storage tank 2. “X percent” is preferably a rate at which the hot water storage tank 2 does not become full even when a bath load is not generated.

  When the ratio of the tank residual heat to the tank full tank amount is always equal to or less than X percent (S75: YES), it is unlikely that the hot water storage tank 2 is full. In S76, as shown in FIG. The first bath candidate time calculated in S74 is reset to the bath time. Then, in S77 of FIG. 10, the operation pattern of the generator 8 is determined so as to cover the hot water supply load prediction after resetting the bath load. Thereby, even when a bath load occurs at the first bath candidate time that is earlier than the average value of the bath time, the hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 2 can cover the bath load and the general-purpose hot water supply load after the bath load occurs. . When the operation pattern is determined, the process is terminated.

  On the other hand, when the average value is the bath time and the residual heat of the tank when the operation pattern of the generator 8 is determined is not always less than X percent of the tank full tank amount, the hot water storage tank 2 can be full. High nature. Therefore, in S78 of FIG. 10, as shown in FIG. 13, the first bath candidate time is reset to the bath time. Thereby, even when a bath load occurs at the first bath candidate time that is earlier than the average value of the bath time, the bath load can be covered by the hot water stored in the hot water storage tank 2. Then, in S79 of FIG. 10, as shown in FIG. 13, the operation pattern is determined so that the generator 8 is operated at the minimum output from the first bath candidate time to the second bath candidate time. Thereby, it is possible to cover the hot water supply load and power load on the prediction target day by continuing the operation of the generator 8 while preventing the hot water storage tank 2 from becoming full.

  Thereafter, in S80 of FIG. 10, it is determined whether a bath load has occurred. Until the bath load is generated (S80: NO), the generator 8 is on standby while operating at the minimum output. On the other hand, when a bath load is generated (S80: YES), it is considered that there is no large hot water supply load thereafter, and therefore the generator 8 is changed to the power follow-up operation in S81, and then the process ends.

(Function and effect)
Therefore, the operation control device 30F of the cogeneration system 1 according to the sixth embodiment subtracts the time by the standard deviation from the average value of the bath time when the bath time varies greatly and the bath time is easily predicted. The first bath candidate time is calculated, the first bath candidate time is set to the bath time of the prediction target day, and the operation pattern of the generator 8 is determined (S72 in FIG. 10: YES, S73 to 79, FIG. 12, (See FIG. 13). As a result, the operation control device 30F of the cogeneration system 1 according to the sixth embodiment does not change the output of the generator 8 frequently or repeats starting and stopping of the generator 8 to run out of hot water and fill the tank. The tongue state can be avoided and the cogeneration system 1 can be operated efficiently.

  However, the operating time of the generator 8 is provisionally determined with the average bath time as the bath time, and the residual heat of the hot water storage tank 2 is calculated. When the predetermined ratio is always exceeded with respect to the amount, if no bath load is generated at the first bath candidate time, the hot water storage tank 2 may become full and heat dissipation may occur. In this case, the second bath candidate time is set by delaying the bath time by adding the standard deviation to the average value of the bath time, and the generator is set to the lowest from the first bath candidate time to the second bath candidate time. Operation is performed with output (see S75 in FIG. 10: NO, S78, S79, FIG. 13). Therefore, according to the operation control device 30F of the cogeneration system 1 according to the sixth embodiment, the cogeneration system 1 can cover the power load and the hot water supply load on the prediction target day while preventing the hot water shortage and the tank full state. And high energy savings can be secured.

  Furthermore, according to the operation control device 30F of the cogeneration system 1 according to the sixth embodiment, after the bath load is generated on the prediction target day, the operation is changed to the power load following operation (S80 in FIG. 10: YES, S81), heat dissipation loss can be suppressed.

Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described above, the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and various applications are possible.
For example, in the above-described embodiment, the operation control devices 30A to 30F have been described for a cogeneration system installed in a home. For example, a cogeneration system installed in a company with several employees, for example, a hot water supply load or an electric power load However, even if it is easy to change according to the usage pattern of the user, it is possible to improve the prediction accuracy by applying the operation control devices 30A to 30F.
For example, in the first and second embodiments, the hot water supply load and the water temperature or the correlation between the bath load and the water temperature have been described as a reference. However, the hot water supply load and the outside air temperature, or the correlation between the bath load and the outside air temperature. May be used as a reference.
For example, the hot water supply load or bath load on the prediction target day is predicted based on the hot water supply load in the first embodiment and the bath load in the second embodiment. On the other hand, the operation pattern of the generator 8 may be determined by predicting the general-purpose hot-water supply load on the prediction target day based on the general-purpose hot-water supply load obtained by removing the bath load from the hot-water supply load. For example, even if the usage pattern of the bath 16 changes from a pattern that fills the bath 16 to a pattern that uses a shower at the turn of the season, if the change in the overall hot water supply load is poor before and after the usage pattern, If the bath load is used as a reference, it is impossible to accurately predict the hot water supply load on the prediction target day. However, if the general-purpose hot water supply load is used as a reference, the hot water supply load is accurately predicted without being affected by changes in the usage pattern of the bath 16. it can. Therefore, the hot water supply load can be predicted with higher accuracy by appropriately determining which one of the hot water supply load, the bath load, and the general-purpose hot water supply load is used as a reference according to the life pattern of the user.

1 is a schematic configuration diagram of a cogeneration system according to a first embodiment of the present invention. It is an electric block diagram of the operation control apparatus which controls the driving | operation of the cogeneration system shown in FIG. FIG. 3 is a flowchart of the operation control program shown in FIG. 2. It is a flowchart of the operation control program stored in the operation control apparatus which controls the driving | operation of the cogeneration system which concerns on 2nd Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart of the operation control program stored in the operation control apparatus which controls the driving | operation of the cogeneration system which concerns on 3rd Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows an example of the relationship between the actual value and predicted value of a bath load, a bath load (MJ) is shown on a vertical axis | shaft, and a date is shown on a horizontal axis. It is a flowchart of the operation control program stored in the operation control apparatus which controls the driving | operation of the cogeneration system which concerns on 4th Embodiment of this invention. It is a conceptual diagram of the operation | movement which covers the hot water supply load which generate | occur | produces in the morning on the day following a prediction object day at the time of execution of the operation control program shown in FIG. 5, A vertical axis | shaft shows electric power (W) and a horizontal axis shows time. It is a flowchart of the operation control program stored in the operation control apparatus which controls the operation | movement of the cogeneration system which concerns on 5th Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart of the operation control program stored in the operation control apparatus which controls the operation | movement of the cogeneration system which concerns on 6th Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows an example of the standard normal distribution of bath time, a vertical axis | shaft shows generation | occurrence | production probability and a horizontal axis shows time. It is a figure which shows an example of the driving | running pattern determined by the driving | operation control program 35F shown in FIG. 10, a tank's residual heat is shown on a vertical axis | shaft and time is shown on a horizontal axis. It is a figure which shows an example of the driving | running pattern determined by the driving | operation control program 35F shown in FIG. 10, a tank's residual heat is shown on a vertical axis | shaft and time is shown on a horizontal axis. It is a figure which shows an example of the relationship between the actual value of total hot water supply load, and a predicted value, a total hot water supply load (MJ) is shown on a vertical axis | shaft, and a date is shown on a horizontal axis. It is a figure which shows an example of the relationship between water temperature and hot water supply load, a hot water supply load (MJ) is shown on a vertical axis | shaft, and water temperature (degreeC) is shown on a horizontal axis.

Explanation of symbols

1 Cogeneration system 8 Generator 30A, 30B, 30C, 30D, 30E, 30F Operation control device 35A, 35B, 35C, 35D, 35E, 35F Operation control program 36 Database

Claims (12)

In the operation control device of the cogeneration system that calculates the correlation between the hot water supply load and the water temperature or the outside temperature, and determines the operation pattern of the generator based on the calculated correlation,
When the correlation determination coefficient is smaller than a predetermined value, an operation control program is provided that averages past hot water supply loads and determines an operation pattern of the generator so as to cover the average processed hot water supply loads. Operation control device for cogeneration system. In the operation control device of the cogeneration system according to claim 1,
An operation control apparatus for a cogeneration system, wherein the hot water supply load is a bath load. In the operation control device of the cogeneration system that predicts the energy load pattern of the prediction target day and determines the operation pattern of the generator,
Data storage means for storing bath load data;
When the presence / absence of accumulation of the bath load data in the data accumulation means changes, the hot water supply load on the prediction target day is predicted using the average value of the urgent hot water supply load data so as to cover the predicted value of the hot water load An operation control apparatus for a cogeneration system, comprising an operation control program for determining an operation pattern of the generator. In the operation control device of the cogeneration system according to claim 3,
The operation control apparatus for a cogeneration system, wherein the operation control program discards hot water supply load data other than the urgent hot water supply load data when the accumulation presence / absence changes. In the operation control device of the cogeneration system that predicts the energy load pattern of the prediction target day and determines the operation pattern of the generator,
When there is a hot water supply load in the morning on the day after the prediction target date, the primary energy consumption when the generator is operated to cover the morning hot water supply load from the last hot water supply load time on the prediction target day, and the morning Compared with the primary energy consumption when the generator is operated so as to cover the morning hot water supply load retroactively from the time when the hot water supply load occurs, a time cycle in which the primary energy amount is reduced is selected. An operation control device for a cogeneration system comprising an operation control program for determining an operation pattern of the generator. In the operation control device of the cogeneration system that predicts the energy load pattern of the prediction target day and determines the operation pattern of the generator,
An operation control apparatus for a cogeneration system, comprising an operation control program for changing the output of the generator when the difference between the tank residual heat of the hot water storage tank and the predicted value of the tank residual heat exceeds a certain amount . In the operation control device of the cogeneration system according to claim 6,
The operation control program sets a tank full time when the hot water storage tank becomes full when it is determined that the time when the deviation exceeds a certain amount is before the occurrence of a bath load and the hot water storage tank is full. An operation control device for a cogeneration system, characterized in that the output of the generator is suppressed retroactively. In the operation control device of the cogeneration system according to claim 6,
In the operation control program, the tank predicted by the residual heat of the hot water storage tank after the bath load occurs when the deviation exceeds a certain amount and when the generator is stopped on the prediction target day An operation control device for a cogeneration system, characterized in that the output of the generator is suppressed retroactively from the stop when it is determined that the residual heat is greater than the residual heat. In the operation control device of the cogeneration system according to any one of claims 6 to 8,
The operation control apparatus for a cogeneration system, wherein the operation control program is for releasing output suppression of the generator when the deviation becomes small. In the operation control device of the cogeneration system that predicts the energy load pattern of the prediction target day and determines the operation pattern of the generator,
When the variation of the bath time is large, the first bath candidate time is calculated by subtracting the time by the standard deviation from the average value of the bath time, the first bath candidate time is set as the bath time, and the generator An operation control apparatus for a cogeneration system comprising an operation control program for determining an operation pattern. In the operation control device of the cogeneration system according to claim 10,
The operation control program calculates the residual heat of the hot water storage tank when the operation pattern of the generator is tentatively determined using the average value of the bath time as the bath time, and the residual heat of the hot water storage tank is calculated as the residual heat of the hot water storage tank. From the first bath candidate time to the second bath candidate time obtained by adding time by a standard deviation to the average value of the bath time when it is determined that the predetermined ratio is always exceeded with respect to the tank full tank amount of An operation control device for a cogeneration system, wherein the generator is operated at a minimum output. In the operation control device of the cogeneration system according to claim 10 or claim 11,
The said operation control program changes the said generator to electric power load follow-up operation after bath load generate | occur | produces on the prediction object day, The operation control apparatus of the cogeneration system characterized by the above-mentioned.

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