JP2006268505A - Sales management system - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a sales management system for easily determining a schedule of subsequent business negotiations by effectively utilizing information relating to business negotiation activities of a salesperson. <P>SOLUTION: The sales management system comprises a salesperson terminal 10 operated by a salesperson who performs business negotiations, a business negotiation information server 20 managed by a sales manager for managing business negotiation activities of the salesperson to estimate optimum business negotiation activity contents, or the like to sign an agreement on the basis of the business negotiation activities at the present time by the salesperson, a sales manager terminal 30 operated by the sales manager to receive information or the like showing the estimated business negotiation activities from the business negotiation information server 20 and display the information or the like, and a network 100 for interconnecting the salesperson terminal 10, the business negotiation information server 20 and the sales manager terminal 30. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2007,JPO&INPIT

Description

  The present invention relates to a sales management system, and more particularly to a sales management system that realizes optimization of business sales activities using a computer system.

Traditionally, salespeople (sales representatives) have had business talks with customers to sign contracts for selling their products and providing services.
In order to improve the efficiency of such negotiations, the management side of those salespersons needs to fully grasp the contents and progress of the negotiations being promoted by each salesperson.

As one of the prior arts for grasping the progress of negotiations by each salesperson, there is a computer-readable recording medium on which insurance sales support data disclosed in Patent Document 1 is recorded. In this patent document 1, the sales activity summary indicating the activity status of the insurance sales person and the sales process indicating the current state of sales are accumulated in a computer server together with various customer information, and the number of sales contracts established based on the accumulated information. In order to improve the efficiency of accounting operations, such as counting data, insurance sales were also supported.
JP 2002-99708 A

  For example, as described in Patent Document 1, conventionally, the contents of business negotiation behavior, customer information, and the like have been stored in a database for management. However, in the past, it is necessary to proceed with business negotiations in the future, such as what kind of actions should be performed for business negotiations using this accumulated information, and how long it will take to make business negotiations. It was difficult to obtain appropriate information, so it was difficult to determine an appropriate schedule for subsequent business negotiations.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above-described problems, and provides a sales management system that can easily determine a schedule in subsequent negotiations by effectively using information related to the negotiation behavior of the salesperson. Objective.

  In order to achieve such an object, the present invention is a system having a salesperson terminal operated by a salesperson who conducts a business negotiation with a customer, and a business negotiation information server that manages information related to the business negotiation, , Input the information related to the negotiation, send the entered negotiation information to the negotiation information server, and the negotiation information server uses the numerical values of the negotiation information received from the salesperson terminal and the actual negotiation result respectively. It is characterized by performing a linear regression analysis and creating a schedule of business negotiation behavior based on the analysis result.

  Further, according to the present invention, the salesperson terminal inputs information indicating the content of the action performed by the salesperson during the negotiation as negotiation information, transmits the input information to the negotiation information server, and the negotiation information server Based on the information indicating the action content at the time of the negotiation received from, and the actual success / failure of the negotiation, the action content having a high possibility of closing the deal is specified.

  According to the present invention, the salesperson terminal inputs information indicating the execution frequency of the action performed by the salesperson at the time of the negotiation as the negotiation information, transmits the input information to the negotiation information server, and the negotiation information server It is characterized in that the execution frequency of an action having a high probability of closing a deal is specified based on the information indicating the execution frequency of the action at the time of the negotiation received from the employee terminal and the actual success or failure of the negotiation.

  Further, according to the present invention, the salesperson terminal inputs, as the negotiation information, a prediction value indicating the probability that the salesperson currently closes the deal will be closed, and transmits it to the negotiation information server. , Calculate the value that shows the difference between the forecast probability of the business deal received from the salesperson terminal and the actual success / failure of the business deal, and identify the salesperson with high accuracy of the business deal success / failure based on the calculated discrepancy value It is characterized by doing.

  In addition, according to the present invention, the negotiation information server, based on the correlation between the information indicating the prediction probability of the negotiation agreement and the actual success or failure of the negotiation, the probability of the actual negotiation agreement has become a certain value or more. It is characterized by specifying the range of the prediction probability that results in a business deal.

  Further, according to the present invention, the salesperson terminal inputs, as the negotiation information, a predicted value indicating a time when the ongoing negotiation by the salesperson ends, and transmits the prediction value to the negotiation information server. A salesperson who calculates the value indicating the divergence between the forecasted end time of the negotiation received from the salesperson terminal and the actual ending time of the deal, and based on the calculated divergence value, the salesperson with a high prediction accuracy of the negotiation end time It is characterized by specifying.

  Further, according to the present invention, the business negotiation information server estimates the end time of another business negotiation currently in progress by the salesperson using the predicted end time of the business negotiation and the actual end time of the business negotiation. And

  In addition, according to the present invention, the negotiation information server includes a prediction probability by a salesperson who closes one or more ongoing negotiations, a sales amount at the time of closing each negotiation, and a range of prediction probabilities that result in the negotiation. Based on the above, the total sales amount at the time of closing one or more business negotiations is estimated.

  In addition, according to the present invention, the negotiation information server further uses the estimated time by the salesperson who ends one or more ongoing negotiations and the estimated termination time of each negotiation to estimate the total sales amount. Among these, the amount that can be sold by a predetermined time is estimated.

  The present invention is a system having a salesperson terminal operated by a salesperson who conducts business negotiations with a customer, and a business negotiation information server that manages information related to business negotiations, and the salesperson terminal stores information related to business negotiations. The entered negotiation information is sent to the negotiation information server, and the negotiation information server performs statistical analysis using the numerical values of the negotiation information received from the salesperson terminal and the actual negotiation result, respectively. Since the schedule of the negotiation action is created based on the result, it is possible to easily determine the schedule in the subsequent negotiation.

<Configuration>
FIG. 1 is a diagram showing a configuration of a sales management system in the present embodiment.
As shown in the figure, this sales management system is managed by a salesperson terminal 10 operated by a salesperson who conducts business negotiations and a sales manager who manages business negotiation behavior of the salesperson, and the current business negotiation behavior by the salesperson. The negotiation information server 20 that performs the estimation of the optimal negotiation action content for closing based on the transaction information, and the sales manager who receives the information indicating the estimated negotiation action described above is received from the negotiation information server 20. The sales manager terminal 30 to be displayed, and the salesperson terminal 10, the negotiation information server 20, and the network 100 that interconnects the sales manager terminal 30 are configured.

  The salesperson terminal 10 is an information processing apparatus such as a PC operated by each salesperson. Each salesperson uses the salesperson terminal 10 to input business negotiation information such as the contents of business negotiation behavior (sales activities) performed at the time of business negotiation or prediction of success or failure of the business negotiation. The salesperson terminal 10 transmits the input business negotiation information to the business negotiation information server 20 via the network 100.

  The business negotiation information server 20 performs statistical analysis using the business negotiation information received from the salesperson terminal 10 and the numerical values of the actual success / failure of the business negotiation, and obtains optimum conditions for closing the business negotiation. Predicts the success or failure of a business negotiation, predicts the end time of a business negotiation, and the like.

  The sales manager terminal 30 is an information processing apparatus such as a PC that is operated by a sales manager who manages the progress status of the negotiation behavior by one or more sales staff. The sales manager terminal 30 receives and displays information such as the optimum conditions for closing a deal and predictions related to various negotiations obtained by the above-described negotiation information server 20. The sales manager gives an instruction for the negotiation behavior to each salesperson under management in accordance with the display contents.

<Operation>
FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing a flow of operations for creating an input file that is a template for each salesperson to input his / her business negotiation information. The input file creation operation by the sales management system will be described below with reference to the drawing.

First, the salesperson inputs the negotiation information using the salesperson terminal 10 and transmits it to the negotiation information server 20 via the network 100 (step S101).
This business negotiation information is information related to business negotiations such as the progress of business negotiations, action contents, and results by each salesperson. For example, negotiations are divided into the following stages (hereinafter referred to as negotiation stages) according to the progress status.
(1) Pre-sales (promotional activities to make customers choose to purchase their own products or use their own services)
(2) Negotiation preliminary survey (3) Early negotiation period (4) Late negotiation period (5) Closing (concluding negotiations)
(6) Aftercare (customer response after product sales or service provision)

For example, in step S <b> 101, the salesperson terminal 10 receives and displays a template in a common format created in advance by the sales manager from the negotiation information server 20, and the salesperson displays the template using the salesperson terminal 10. Enter each item of negotiation information in the template entry field.
Further, the salesperson may input the business negotiation information in a completely free description method using the salesperson terminal 10 without using the template of the common format described above, and may transmit it to the business negotiation information server 20.

Upon receiving the negotiation information from the salesperson terminal 10, the negotiation information server 20 creates an input file describing the negotiation behavior based on the received negotiation information (step S102).
For example, in step S <b> 102, the negotiation information server 20 integrates the received negotiation information, and creates a list of negotiation actions covering all the sales person's negotiation actions as an input file for each negotiation stage.
Note that even sales negotiations with the same content may be written in different words depending on the salesperson. If the business negotiation information server 20 is synonymous with another word, the business negotiation information server 20 converts the word into a single word. Specifically, the business negotiation information server 20 creates a simple synonym dictionary using general text creation support software and performs synonym conversion to unify the above-described words.

Next, the negotiation information server 20 stores the created input file group in a shared database (hereinafter referred to as a shared DB) managed by itself (step S103).
Thereafter, the salesperson receives the input file from the negotiation information server 20 using the salesperson terminal 10 and inputs the negotiation behavior in the input field of the input file.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of the input file group created as described above. As shown in the figure, the input file group is composed of one or more files.
As shown in the figure, the input file includes, for example, “data sending”, “customer visit count”, “customer visit time”, “customer call count”, “customer inquiry to answer time”, etc. There is an input field for an action at the time of a business negotiation actually conducted by a salesperson.
Each salesperson uses the salesperson terminal 10 to input the corresponding number of times and time into each of these input fields, and transmits it to the negotiation information server 20 as negotiation information.

  FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing a flow of collecting business negotiation information by the sales management system. In the following, the negotiation information collection operation that is executed each time each salesperson makes a negotiation with a customer will be described with reference to the drawing.

When the salesperson starts the business negotiation, the salesperson terminal 10 is used to make the above-mentioned input file acquisition request to the business negotiation information server 20 (step S201).
In response to the acquisition request, the business negotiation information server 20 transmits the input file stored in itself to the salesperson terminal 10 (step S202).

The salesperson terminal 10 displays the input file received from the negotiation information server 20 on the screen of the own terminal (step S203).
The salesperson uses the displayed input file as a template for inputting the negotiation information. The salesperson uses the salesperson terminal 10 to input the negotiation information in the input field of the input file (step S204).
The salesperson terminal 10 transmits the input business negotiation information to the business negotiation information server 20 (step S205).
Upon receiving the negotiation information from the salesperson terminal 10, the negotiation information server 20 stores the negotiation information in its own storage area for each salesperson in chronological order (step S206).
In this way, the negotiation information server 20 accumulates the negotiation information in its own storage area, and generates an action history at the time of the negotiation of each salesperson.

This negotiation information input, transmission, and storage operations are repeated until the negotiation ends (step S207 / No).
When the negotiation is completed as a contract or non-contract (step S207 / Yes), the salesperson uses the salesperson terminal 10 to input the success / failure of the business that he / she is in charge of and transmits to the negotiation information server 20 (Step S208).
The business negotiation information server 20 writes the information on the success / failure of the business negotiation received from the salesperson terminal 10 in the action history at the time of the business negotiation (step S209).

Next, the business negotiation information server 20 performs statistical analysis using the business negotiation information stored in the storage area of the business negotiation information and the success / failure of the business negotiation that have been digitized (step S210).
In this statistical process, for example, a correlation coefficient between the negotiation information and the success / failure of the negotiation is obtained using numerical values of the negotiation information and the success / failure of the negotiation. More specifically, for example, a linear regression analysis is used to infer the accuracy of the negotiation success / failure prediction at the time of the salesperson's negotiation progress.
Details of these statistical analyzes will be described later.

In this way, the business negotiation information server 20 performs various statistical analyzes related to the business negotiation based on the business negotiation information registered by the salesperson terminal 10, so that it is easy for the salesperson to make appropriate action details for the business negotiation. Can be presented.
In addition, the sales manager can estimate the success or failure of the actual business negotiation from each salesperson's prediction of the success or failure of the business negotiation using the calculated statistical values described above. It is possible to make an accurate plan.

(1) Relationship between the sales staff's action contents at the time of business negotiations and the success / failure of the actual business negotiations The business negotiation information server 20 determines the final success / failure of the business negotiations handled by one or more sales staffs, and the sales staff at each business negotiation. Based on the relationship with the action taken at the time of business negotiations (pamphlet sending, telephone interviews, etc.), it is determined which business negotiation action is most likely to be concluded.
Further, the negotiation information server 20 performs linear regression based on the relationship between the final success / failure of the negotiation and the number or execution rate of the negotiation action performed by the salesperson (actual execution number ÷ number of executable opportunities). By calculating the correlation coefficient of the equation, it is determined how many times or how often each business negotiation action is performed, and the possibility of business contract closing is high. As a result, the sales manager can improve the probability of closing a deal by causing each salesperson to execute an appropriate negotiation action.
The statistical analysis of the relationship between the success or failure of these negotiations and the contents of the negotiation behavior will be described below.

(1-1) Analysis of correlation between presence / absence of business negotiation action and success / failure of business negotiation FIG. 5 is information managed by the business negotiation information server 20 in the shared DB. It is a figure which shows the relationship with success or failure.
This figure shows the negotiation number. For each of the negotiations 1 to 20, the success / failure of the negotiation (1: close, 0: non-close) and whether or not the negotiation behaviors A to F in the negotiation are executed (1: executed, 0: not executed) are shown. ing. These negotiations No. It is assumed that the business negotiations 1 to 20 are completed, that is, the result of success or failure has already been confirmed.
These business negotiation actions A to F may be business negotiations conducted by the same salesperson, or may be business negotiations conducted by a plurality of salespersons.
Further, hereinafter, in the success / failure of the negotiation, “1” indicates a contract and “0” indicates a non-contract.

The negotiation information server 20 calculates each statistic (average, standard deviation, variance (unbiased variance), correlation coefficient, etc.) for each success / failure of the negotiation and whether or not each negotiation behavior A to F is executed.
In the example of the figure, the correlation coefficient of each negotiation action with respect to the success or failure of the negotiation is shown as follows (rounded to two decimal places).
-Correlation coefficient for negotiation behavior A: “0.20”
-Correlation coefficient of business negotiation behavior B: “0.90”
-Correlation coefficient of business negotiation behavior C: “0.70”
-Correlation coefficient of business negotiation behavior D: “0.52”
-Correlation coefficient of business negotiation action E: “0.20”
-Correlation coefficient for negotiation behavior F: “0.20”
The correlation coefficient is a value indicating the correlation between “success / failure of negotiation (naturally, the correlation coefficient is“ 1 ”)” and “presence / absence of execution of each negotiation action A to F” with respect to “success / failure of negotiation”. The larger the number (“1” is completely matched, “0” is completely unmatched), the higher the correlation between the execution of the negotiation action and the success or failure of the negotiation. In other words, it is shown that the negotiation behavior having a higher correlation coefficient is more effectively linked to the conclusion of the negotiation behavior by executing.
The negotiation information server 20 sets a reference value in advance, and determines that the negotiation behavior with a correlation coefficient equal to or greater than the reference value is “effective negotiation behavior”. For example, when the reference value is “0.65”, the negotiation information server 20 determines that the negotiation actions B and C are effective for closing the negotiation.
Based on this result, the sales manager can instruct each salesperson to execute the business negotiation actions B and C at the time of business negotiations, and can expect an improvement in the business deal closing rate.

(1-2) Analysis of Correlation between Execution Rate of Negotiation Action and Success / Fairness of Negotiations The calculation of the correlation coefficient between the presence / absence of execution of the negotiation action and the success / failure of the negotiation has been described. On the other hand, the calculation of the correlation between the execution rate of the negotiation action and the success or failure of the negotiation will be described below.
The execution rate of the negotiation behavior is an index indicating how much the salesperson has executed the negotiation behavior among all execution opportunities of the negotiation behavior.
For example, the salesperson asks the customer about each item (background of the problem, customer's problem, assumed solution, etc.) necessary for closing the deal. If there are 10 items that need to be heard and the items actually heard by the salesperson are 8, the execution rate of the negotiation action at this time is 8 ÷ 10 × 100 = 80%.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing the relationship between the execution rate of the negotiation behavior and the success or failure of the negotiation.
As shown in the drawing, the negotiation information server 20 extracts the success / failure of each of the above negotiations and the execution rate of each of the negotiation actions G and H in each of the negotiations from the shared DB.
The figure shows the negotiation number. For each of the negotiations 1 to 20, the success / failure of each negotiation (1: contract, 0: non-close) and the execution rate (0-100%) of the negotiation actions G and H in each negotiation are shown.
The business negotiation actions G and H may be business negotiations conducted by the same salesperson or may be business negotiations conducted by a plurality of salespersons.

The negotiation information server 20 calculates each statistic (average, standard deviation, variance (unbiased variance), correlation coefficient, etc.) for each success / failure of the negotiation and the execution rate of each negotiation behavior G, H.
In the figure, the correlation coefficient is shown as follows (rounded to two decimal places).
-Correlation coefficient of business negotiation behavior G: “0.92”
-Correlation coefficient for negotiation behavior H: “0.52”
The correlation coefficient is a value indicating the correlation between “success / failure of negotiation (naturally, the correlation coefficient is“ 1 ”)” and “execution rate of each negotiation action G and H” with respect to “success / failure of negotiation”. The larger the number (“1” is a complete match, “0” is a complete match), the higher the correlation between the execution rate of the negotiation action and the success or failure of the negotiation. In other words, the negotiation rate can be effectively improved by increasing the execution rate of the negotiation behavior having a higher correlation coefficient.
The negotiation information server 20 sets a reference value in advance, and determines that the negotiation behavior with a correlation coefficient equal to or greater than the reference value is “effective negotiation behavior”. For example, when the reference value is “0.65”, the negotiation information server 20 determines that the negotiation action G is effective for closing the negotiation.
Based on this result, the sales manager can instruct each salesperson to execute the negotiation action G at the time of the negotiation, and can expect an improvement in the deal closing rate.

(2) Relationship between the sales contract sales forecast value (0 to 100%) and the actual sales contract value (sales / non-sales) The sales information server 20 shows the sales contract forecast predicted by the sales staff. A divergence value (0 to 1, 1 is a complete divergence) is obtained for each salesperson from a correlation coefficient (0 to 1, 1 is a complete match) between the value and the actual success or failure of the negotiation. It can be determined that a salesperson with a lower divergence value has a smaller divergence between his / her prediction and the actual result in the success / failure of the negotiation, and the reliability of the prediction of success / failure of the negotiation by the salesperson is higher.
Further, the negotiation information server 20 determines which value is predicted in the predicted contract value of the negotiation by the salesperson (when more than the predicted value is predicted), it is highly likely that the contract is actually concluded. From this, the sales manager can predict the success or failure of actual negotiations with high accuracy based on the predicted contract value, and can easily create future schedules such as product orders. .
Hereinafter, the operation of the sales management system when the accuracy of prediction by each salesperson is obtained from the prediction of the closing of the negotiations by the salesperson and the actual success / failure will be described.

(2-1) Calculation of the divergence value between the predicted contract value and the actual contract value The sales manager asks each salesperson the degree of the probability of the current business negotiation that the salesperson is in charge of (probability ). The degree of contract possibility predicted by the salesperson is hereinafter referred to as a contract predicted value.
Each salesperson uses the salesperson terminal 10 to register the predicted contract value in the business negotiation information server 20 as business negotiation information.
The business negotiation information server 20 extracts, for each salesperson, the predicted contract value of the business negotiation handled by the salesperson and the actual success / failure (hereinafter, the actual sales result value) from the shared DB.

FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating the relationship between the contract predicted value and the contract actual value of a business deal with a certain salesperson. The business negotiations shown in this figure are all conducted by the same salesperson.
As described above, the salesperson uses the salesperson terminal 10 to input the contract predicted value (0 to 100) before the result of contract / non-contract is obtained, and registers it in the negotiation information server 20. The salesperson inputs a high contracted forecast value (a value close to 100) for a deal that is predicted to have a high probability of closing, and conversely a low contract for a deal that is predicted to have a low probability of closing. Enter the predicted value (value close to 0).

Next, the negotiation information server 20 calculates each statistical quantity (average, standard deviation, variance (unbiased variance), correlation coefficient, etc.) of the forecasted deal value and the actual deal value.
This correlation coefficient is for the actual contract value. The higher the correlation coefficient value of the predicted contract value for the actual contract value (the closer it is to “1”), the more the forecast by this seller It shows that it is close to success or failure.

Next, the negotiation information server 20 calculates the divergence value of the success / failure of the negotiation.
The divergence value of the success / failure of the negotiation is an index indicating how far the success / failure of the negotiation predicted by the salesperson is different from the success / failure of the actual negotiation, and is calculated by the following formula (A).
(Difference value of negotiation success / failure) = (1− (correlation coefficient of predicted contract value)) × 100 (A)
The divergence value of the success / failure of the negotiation takes a value from 0 to 100, and when the ratio of the seller predicting the same as the success / failure of the actual negotiation is high, the value is close to 0. , A value close to 100.
For example, in the example shown in FIG. 7, the correlation coefficient of the contract predicted value with the actual contract value is 0.81 (rounded to the second decimal place).
(Deviation value of negotiation completion time) = (1−0.81) × 100 = 19
And calculate.

  In this way, the negotiation information server 20 calculates the accuracy of the negotiation success / failure prediction by the salesperson as a deviation value from the success / failure of the negotiation predicted by the salesperson and the actual success / failure. The success / failure of the negotiation can be estimated in consideration of the accuracy of the prediction by the salesperson, and it becomes possible to easily make future plans such as personnel assignment, estimation, and presence / absence of an order.

(2-2) Estimating Success / Failure of Negotiations In (2-1), the negotiation information server 20 calculates a divergence value indicating the certainty of the prediction of success / failure of a negotiation by a certain salesperson. On the other hand, in (2-2), the negotiation information server 20 has a high probability of contracting when predicting in a range of values in a predicted sales value of a certain salesperson, and predicting in a range of values Sometimes it is determined whether the probability of closing is low, and the accuracy of the prediction of the success or failure of the negotiation by the salesperson is determined. In (2-2), as an example, a certain salesperson predicts a contract predicted value as shown in FIG. 7, and as a result, in the predicted business negotiation, the contract actual value shown in FIG. 7 is obtained. And

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing coefficients (a1, b1) when the contracted predicted value (X) and the contracted actual result value (Y) are expressed by a linear regression equation. These coefficients are expressed as linear regression equation Y = a1 · X + b1
Are the coefficients a1 and b1.
In the figure, the coefficient a of the contract predicted value is 0.0189..., And the coefficient b of the constant term is −0.6769.
Also, in the figure, the standard errors of the coefficients a1 and b1 are 0.2141..., 0.0032..., The t values are -3.61313, 5.8108, respectively, and the F values are 9.9939. .. 7659 ..., both tests are 1% significant, significance is 0.0054 ..., 1.66402 × ^10-5 , 95% confidence interval is lower limit -1.1268 ..., 0.0120 ..., upper limit is respectively -0.2270 ..., 0.0257 ...

FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating the theoretical value and residual of the actual contract value in each negotiation, which is obtained by the linear regression analysis described above. The theoretical value is obtained by the negotiation information server 20 using the contract predicted value and the contract actual value of each negotiation shown in FIG.
FIG. 10 is a diagram showing the theoretical value of the actual contract value in each predicted contract value and the 95% confidence interval of the theoretical value obtained by the linear regression analysis described above. The theoretical value and the confidence interval are similarly obtained by the negotiation information server 20 using the predicted contract value and the actual contract value in FIG.

As shown in the figure, the theoretical value of the actual contract value in each predicted contract value is as follows (rounded to the fifth decimal place).
-Expected closing value “10”: −0.4879
-Expected contract value “20”: −0.2988
-Expected closing value “30”: −0.1097
-Expected contract value “40”: 0.0793
-Expected closing value “50”: 0.2683
-Expected closing value “60”: 0.4575
・ Conclusion prediction value “70”: 0.6465
-Expected closing value “80”: 0.8356
-Expected closing value “90”: 1.0247
・ Prediction value “100”: 1.2137
The theoretical value of the actual contract value is a value indicating the actual contract value (1: contract, 0: non-contract) that is estimated when each predicted contract value (10 to 100) is predicted. The more it shows, the higher the probability of contracting when forecasting with that contracted forecast value.
The negotiation information server 20 sets a reference value in advance, and determines that “the probability of a negotiation is high” when predicting with a contract predicted value of the theoretical value of the contract actual value greater than the reference value. For example, if the reference value is “0.65”, the business negotiation information server 20 finally determines that the business negotiation that is currently in progress when the salesperson in this example predicts with a contract predicted value of 80 to 100. Judge that there is a high probability of closing.
Based on the result of this decision, the sales manager can estimate the success / failure of the negotiation from the sales contract's predicted value even for a negotiation that has not yet been closed. It is possible to easily set up future schedules for business negotiations such as arrangements.

(3) Relationship between Schedule Predicted Value and Schedule Actual Value The negotiation information server 20 determines between the end time (scheduled predicted value) of the negotiation predicted by the salesperson and the actual time (schedule actual value) of the end of the negotiation. The divergence value is obtained for each salesperson from the correlation coefficient. It can be determined that the salesperson with a lower divergence value has a smaller divergence between the schedule prediction value and the schedule actual value, and the salesperson has a higher reliability in predicting the end time of the negotiation.
Further, the negotiation information server 20 estimates the end time of the ongoing negotiation using the divergence value. In this way, the sales manager side can estimate the end time of a business negotiation that is currently in progress, and can easily create a future schedule such as a product ordering time.

(3-1) Calculation of Deviation Value between Schedule Predicted Value and Schedule Actual Value The sales manager has the current time required for each salesperson to complete the current business negotiation that the salesperson is in charge of. To predict the time from Hereinafter, the time predicted by the salesperson is referred to as a schedule prediction value.
Each salesperson uses the salesperson terminal 10 to register the schedule prediction value as the negotiation information in the negotiation information server 20.
The business negotiation information server 20 receives, from the shared DB 23, for each salesperson, the schedule estimate value of the business negotiation handled by the salesperson and the time required from the predicted time to the actual completion (contract / non-contract) Schedule actual value).

FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating a relationship between a schedule predicted value and a schedule actual value of a business deal handled by a certain salesperson. The business negotiations shown in this figure are all conducted by the same salesperson.
As described above, the salesperson uses the salesperson terminal 10 to input a schedule prediction value (a positive number greater than 0) before the negotiation is completed, and registers it in the negotiation information server 20. The salesperson predicts that it will take a long time to complete the negotiation. If the salesperson predicts that the negotiation will be completed in a short period of time, a low value (a value close to 0) will be obtained. input. For example, the schedule prediction value may be the number of days predicted to be required for the completion of the negotiation as shown in the figure.

Next, the negotiation information server 20 calculates each statistic (average, standard deviation, variance (unbiased variance), correlation coefficient, etc.) of the schedule prediction value and the schedule performance value.
Note that this correlation coefficient is for the schedule actual value, and the higher the correlation coefficient value of the schedule prediction value, the closer the forecast of the completion time of the negotiation by the seller is closer to the actual completion time. Indicates.

Next, the negotiation information server 20 calculates the divergence value of the negotiation completion time.
The divergence value of the negotiation completion time is an index indicating how far the salesperson's prediction is from the actual negotiation completion time, and is calculated by the following formula (B).
(Deviation value of negotiation completion time) = (1− (correlation coefficient of schedule prediction value)) × 100
... (B)
The divergence value of the negotiation completion time takes a value from 0 to 100. When the seller makes a prediction close to the actual completion time, the divergence value is close to 0. A close value.
For example, in the example shown in FIG. 11, the correlation coefficient of the schedule predicted value with respect to the schedule actual value is 0.43 (rounded to the second decimal place).
(Different value of negotiation completion time) = (1−0.43) × 100 = 57
And calculate.

  In this way, the negotiation information server 20 uses the time required for the completion of the negotiation as predicted by the salesperson and the time required for the completion of the negotiation as the deviation value by the accuracy of the prediction of the negotiation completion time by the salesperson. Since the calculation is made, the sales manager can estimate the timing of completion of the negotiation based on the certainty of the prediction by each salesperson, and can easily make future plans such as personnel assignment.

(3-2) Estimating Completion Time of Negotiations Here, the negotiation information server 20 performs a linear regression analysis of a certain salesperson's schedule prediction value and schedule actual value, and at the completion time of the negotiations predicted by the salesperson. Based on this, the completion time of the actual negotiation is estimated. Here, as an example, it is assumed that a certain salesperson predicts a schedule prediction value as shown in FIG. 11 and results in the schedule actual value shown in FIG. 11 in the predicted negotiation.

FIG. 12 is a diagram showing coefficients (a2, b2) when the schedule prediction value (X) and the schedule performance value (Y) are expressed by a linear regression equation. These coefficients are a2 and b2 when the linear regression equation is Y = a2X + b2.
In the figure, the coefficient a2 of the contract predicted value is 18.4131... And the coefficient b2 of the constant term is 0.4443.
Also, in the figure, the standard errors of the coefficients a2 and b2 are respectively 8.5949..., 0.2216..., T values are 2.026..., 2.0053. 0212 ..., both tests are 5% significant, significance is 0.0408 ..., 0.0602, 95% confidence intervals are lower limit 0.8505 ..., -0.0211 ..., upper limit 35.9756 ..., respectively. 0.0909...

FIG. 13 is a diagram showing a theoretical value and a residual of the schedule actual value in each negotiation obtained by the linear regression analysis described above. This theoretical value is obtained by the negotiation information server 20 using the schedule predicted value and schedule result value of each negotiation shown in FIG.
FIG. 14 is a diagram showing the theoretical value of the schedule performance value in each schedule prediction value and the 95% confidence interval of the theoretical value obtained by the linear regression analysis described above. The theoretical value and the confidence interval are also obtained by the negotiation information server 20 using the schedule prediction value and the schedule performance value of FIG.

As shown in the figure, the theoretical value of the schedule actual value in each schedule prediction value is as follows (rounded to the fifth decimal place).
Schedule predicted value “15”: 25.0788
Schedule predicted value “30”: 31.7446
Schedule predicted value “45”: 38.4102
Schedule predicted value “60”: 45.0760
Schedule predicted value “90”: 58.4074
The theoretical value of the schedule actual value is a value indicating the schedule actual value estimated when predicted by each schedule predicted value (15 to 90).
For example, when the salesperson predicts that an ongoing business negotiation will be completed in “15” days, it is estimated that this business negotiation is actually completed in about “25” days.
Based on this estimation result, the sales manager can estimate the completion time of the negotiation from the forecasted value of the salesperson for the negotiation that has not yet been successful. It will be possible to easily set up future schedules for business negotiations such as staffing.

(4) Estimating the Sales Amount The negotiation information server 20 calculates the sales amount of the ongoing negotiation using linear regression analysis from the actual value of the closing rate of the negotiation handled by a salesperson and the closing price of the negotiation. presume.
Further, the negotiation information server 20 uses the estimated closing time of the negotiation to extract the sales amount of the negotiations that are likely to be closed within a certain period from the estimated sales amount described above. Estimate the sales amount. In this way, the sales management side can accurately estimate the sales amount of the ongoing business negotiation, so it is possible to easily create a future schedule.

FIG. 15 is a diagram illustrating a schedule prediction value of each business negotiation (business negotiations No. 1 to 10) that is currently in progress, the number of elapsed days of the business negotiation, a contract prediction value of the business negotiation, and a contract closing price of the business negotiation. .
The schedule prediction value is a prediction of the time required from the start to the completion of the negotiation that the salesperson is in charge of.
The above-mentioned closing price indicates the amount paid by the customer when each business deal is closed.
For example, in the example of FIG. The first sales negotiation is predicted by the salesperson in charge to take “60” days from the start to the end of the business negotiation, and it is shown that “10” days have passed. In addition, this No. The sales negotiation for 1 is predicted by the salesperson in charge to be “30”%, and the payment amount at the time of closing is “1,000,000” yen.
Hereinafter, the description will be made with reference to the values shown in this figure and FIGS. 16 to 20 shown below. Are common.

(4-1) Estimating the closing price of a deal using a contracted forecast First, the theoretical value of the actual contract value for the contracted forecast value is obtained by linear regression analysis. Estimate the value of a closed deal.

FIG. 16 is a diagram illustrating a contracted predicted value of each negotiation, a theoretical value of a contract actual value of each negotiation, and a 95% confidence interval of the theoretical value.
The theoretical value of the actual closing value is obtained by the linear regression analysis using the coefficient shown in FIG.

FIG. 17 is a diagram illustrating the contract price in each negotiation, the theoretical value of the actual contract value of each negotiation, and the predicted price (1) of each negotiation.
The predicted amount (1) is a value calculated by the negotiation information server 20 by multiplying the closing amount of the ongoing negotiation by the theoretical value of the actual closing value of the negotiation. Indicates the amount of money expected to be obtained as a result.
However, when the theoretical value of the actual contract value is “0” or less, the negotiation information server 20 calculates the predicted amount with the theoretical value as “0”. For example, as shown in FIG. In the negotiation of 1, the theoretical value of the actual contract value is “−0.109...”, So “0” as described above,
Forecast amount (1) = contract amount “1,000,000 yen” × contract actual value “0” = 0
It becomes.

(4-2) Estimating the closing price of a negotiation using schedule prediction FIG. 18 shows a schedule prediction value of each negotiation, a theoretical value of a schedule actual value of each negotiation, and a 95% confidence interval of the theoretical value. FIG.
The theoretical value of the schedule result value is obtained by the linear regression analysis by the negotiation information server 20 using the coefficients shown in FIG.

FIG. 19 is a diagram illustrating the schedule predicted value of each negotiation, the theoretical value of the schedule actual value of each negotiation, the current elapsed days of each negotiation, and the predicted days until the negotiation is completed.
The theoretical value of the schedule predicted value and schedule actual value of each negotiation is the same as the value shown in FIG. 18, and the number of elapsed days is the same as the value shown in FIG. Further, the estimated number of days until the negotiation is completed is a value indicating the estimated number of days required for each negotiation to be completed from the present time. The negotiation information server 20 subtracts the elapsed days from the theoretical value of the schedule actual value described above. calculate. The negotiation information server 20 sets “0” as the predicted number of days until the negotiation is completed for a negotiation whose elapsed days exceed the theoretical value of the schedule performance value.

FIG. 20 is a diagram illustrating the estimated number of days until the negotiation for each negotiation, the predicted amount (1), and the predicted amount (2). The predicted number of days until the negotiation is completed is the same as the value shown in FIG. 19, and the predicted amount (1) is the same as the value shown in FIG.
The forecast amount (2) is the forecast amount of sales when calculating sales by determining the period, and the forecast amount (1) is obtained by reflecting the forecast days from the present time until the completion of the negotiation. Is.
For example, when calculating sales up to 30 days after the start of the negotiation, the negotiation information server 20 calculates the predicted amount of the negotiation whose predicted number of days until the completion of the negotiation is “30 days” or less from the calculated predicted amount (1). Is extracted as the predicted amount (2), and the sales amount is calculated.
In the example of FIG. 20, in the predicted amount (1), No. Of the negotiations 2, 3, 5-8, 10 Since the number of forecast days until the negotiation is completed for “No. 2” exceeds “30 days”, the forecast amount (1) that was “662,392 yen” is calculated as “0 yen” in the forecast amount (2). .

  In this manner, the negotiation information server 20 adds only the predicted amounts of the negotiations that are likely to be established within a certain period based on the estimated number of days until the negotiation is completed. For example, sales for June, etc.) can be predicted easily and accurately.

<Summary of Embodiment>
The salesperson terminal 10, the negotiation information server 20, or the sales manager terminal 30 is realized mainly by a program loaded on the CPU and the memory. However, it is also possible to configure this apparatus or server by a combination of any other hardware and software, and the degree of freedom in design is easily understood by those skilled in the art.
Further, when the salesperson terminal 10, the negotiation information server 20, or the sales manager terminal 30 is configured as a software module group, this program is an optical recording medium, a magnetic recording medium, a magnetooptical recording medium, a semiconductor, or the like. The program may be recorded on a recording medium and loaded from the above-described recording medium, or may be loaded from an external device connected via a predetermined network.

  The above-described embodiment is an example of a preferred embodiment of the present invention. The embodiment of the present invention is not limited to this embodiment, and various modifications may be made without departing from the scope of the present invention. Is possible.

It is a figure which shows the structure of the sales management system in this Embodiment. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of creation operation | movement of the input file which is a template for each salesperson to input own negotiation information. It is a figure which shows an example of an input file group. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of collection operation | movement of the negotiation information by a sales management system. It is the information managed by the business negotiation information server in the shared DB, and is a diagram showing the relationship between the execution / non-execution of the business negotiation action and the success / failure of the business negotiation. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the execution rate of business negotiation action, and business negotiation success or failure. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the contract forecast value and the contract actual value of the negotiation which a certain salesperson took charge. It is a figure which shows a coefficient when a contract predicted value and a contract actual value are represented by the linear regression type. It is a figure which shows the theoretical value and residual of the contract actual value in each negotiation calculated | required by the above-mentioned linear regression analysis. It is a figure which shows the theoretical value of the contract actual value in each contract prediction value calculated | required by the above-mentioned linear regression analysis, and the 95% confidence interval of the theoretical value. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the schedule predicted value and schedule actual value of the negotiation which a certain salesperson took charge. It is a figure which shows a coefficient when a schedule prediction value and a schedule performance value are represented by the linear regression type. It is a figure which shows the theoretical value and residual of the schedule performance value in each negotiation calculated | required by the linear regression analysis. It is a figure which shows the theoretical value of the schedule performance value in each schedule prediction value calculated | required by the linear regression analysis, and the 95% confidence interval of the theoretical value. It is a figure which shows the schedule forecast value of each negotiation currently in progress, the number of days of the negotiation, the contract forecast value of the negotiation, and the contract amount of the negotiation. It is a figure which shows the contract predicted value of each negotiation, the theoretical value of the contract actual value of each negotiation, and the 95% confidence interval of the theoretical value. It is a figure which shows the contract amount in each negotiation, the theoretical value of the contract actual value of each negotiation, and the predicted amount (1) of each negotiation. It is a figure which shows the schedule predicted value of each negotiation, the theoretical value of the schedule performance value of each negotiation, and the 95% confidence interval of the theoretical value. It is a figure which shows the schedule predicted value of each negotiation, the theoretical value of the schedule performance value of each negotiation, the present elapsed days of each negotiation, and the prediction days until negotiation completion. It is a figure which shows the forecast days until the negotiation completion of each negotiation, a predicted amount (1), and a predicted amount (2).

Explanation of symbols

10 Salesperson terminal 20 Business negotiation information server 30 Sales manager terminal 100 Network

Claims (9)

A salesperson terminal operated by a salesperson who conducts business negotiations with a customer, and a business negotiation information server that manages information related to the business negotiations,
The salesperson terminal
Enter information related to the negotiation, send the entered negotiation information to the negotiation information server,
The negotiation information server
Sales management, characterized in that linear regression analysis is performed using numerical values of the negotiation information received from the salesperson terminal and actual negotiation results, and a schedule of negotiation actions is created based on the analysis results system. The salesperson terminal inputs, as the negotiation information, information indicating the action content performed by the salesperson during the negotiation, and transmits the input information to the negotiation information server.
The negotiation information server is characterized in that, based on the information indicating the action content at the time of the negotiation received from the salesperson terminal and the actual success or failure of the negotiation, the action content having a high possibility of closing the deal is specified. The sales management system according to claim 1. The salesperson terminal inputs, as the negotiation information, information indicating an execution frequency of an action performed by the salesperson during the negotiation, and transmits the input information to the negotiation information server.
The negotiation information server specifies an execution frequency of an action having a high probability of closing a deal based on information indicating the execution frequency of the action at the time of the negotiation received from the salesperson terminal and the actual success or failure of the negotiation. The sales management system according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that. The salesperson terminal inputs, as the negotiation information, a prediction value indicating the probability that the salesperson currently engaged will close the negotiation by the salesperson, and transmits it to the negotiation information server.
The negotiation information server calculates a value indicating a deviation between a prediction probability of the negotiation contract received from the salesperson terminal and an actual success or failure of the negotiation;
The sales management system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein a salesperson who has a high accuracy in predicting the success or failure of the negotiation is specified based on the calculated divergence value.   The negotiation information server is the negotiation agreement in which the probability of the actual negotiation agreement is a certain value or more based on the correlation between the information indicating the prediction probability of the negotiation agreement and the actual success or failure of the negotiation. The sales management system according to claim 4, wherein a range of prediction probabilities is specified. The salesperson terminal inputs, as the negotiation information, a predicted value indicating a time when the ongoing negotiation by the salesperson ends, and transmits the prediction value to the negotiation information server,
The negotiation information server calculates a value indicating a deviation between the predicted end time of the negotiation received from the salesperson terminal and the actual end time of the negotiation;
The sales management system according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein a salesperson with a high prediction accuracy of the end time of the negotiation is identified based on the calculated divergence value.   The said negotiation information server estimates the end timing of other negotiations currently in progress by the salesperson using the predicted end timing of the negotiation and the actual end timing of the negotiation. 6. The sales management system according to 6.   The negotiation information server is based on a prediction probability by the salesperson that one or more ongoing negotiations are closed, a sales amount at the time of closing each of the negotiations, and a range of the prediction probability that the negotiation is closed. The sales management system according to claim 5, wherein a total sales amount at the time of closing the one or more business negotiations is estimated.   The negotiation information server further uses the estimated time by the salesperson at which the one or more ongoing negotiations are completed and the estimated termination time of each of the estimated sales, 9. The sales management system according to claim 8, wherein an amount that can be sold by a predetermined time is estimated.

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