JP2006172112A - Device and method for supporting design of earthquake-related risk financial product - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To reduce risk when an earthquake breaks out by spreading actual aseismatic reinforcement. <P>SOLUTION: (1) First, a broker for brokering earthquake-related risk financial product in this embodiment collects investments as an option charge (premium) from investors. Here, a broker may be, a specific purpose company (SPC) or the like. (2) The broker performs aseismatic reinforcement of an owner's building with the investments collected from the investors as expense. (3) In case an earthquake having more than certain magnitude breaks out within the period decided by a contract, the owner pays settlement money corresponding to the magnitude of the earthquake that breaks out to the investors through the broker. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2006,JPO&NCIPI

Description

  The present invention relates to a design support method and apparatus for an earthquake-related risk finance product, which is a financial product for reducing risks resulting from the occurrence of an earthquake.

  In Japan, where earthquakes frequently occur, seismic design standards that must be cleared of the structures to be built are set. This seismic design standard has been revised and changed to a new standard when a large-scale earthquake actually occurs. For this reason, existing buildings that do not meet the new seismic design standards become ineligible buildings that originally require seismic reinforcement.

  However, it is difficult to realize the seismic risk if an earthquake does not actually occur, and the seismic reinforcement work often requires a large amount of cost. Reality.

  As means for avoiding earthquake risks, various risk financing techniques for avoiding earthquake risks with financial techniques have been proposed.

  One type of risk finance is so-called earthquake insurance. In this earthquake insurance, the owner of a building pays an insurance premium, and when an earthquake occurs and the building is damaged, the insurance money is paid according to the degree of the damage. As a financial product close to earthquake insurance, if an earthquake of a certain magnitude or greater occurs within the scope specified in the contract, an earthquake-related derivative that pays the customer a certain benefit regardless of the occurrence of damage. Has also been proposed (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

  As risk finance technology other than earthquake insurance, CAT (catastrophe) bonds that reduce seismic risk by securitization have been proposed. For example, if an earthquake of a certain magnitude or more in a certain area occurs within a set period, the cost invested by the investor will be confiscated and the cost will be paid to the contractor and used as renovation costs etc. It is said that. In such a system, if an earthquake does not occur, the investor can receive a higher interest + risk premium than ordinary financial products, and if the earthquake does not occur, it is attractive to the investor. It is a financial product.

  However, such conventional risk finance technology is not intended to disseminate seismic reinforcement itself, but to compensate for the loss that actually occurred during the earthquake. Therefore, when an earthquake actually occurs, social and economic losses (generation of waste due to dismantling / removal of structures, recovery time, etc.) are actually generated. In addition to damage to structures, there are cases where damage that cannot be covered by money, such as loss of life and mental shock, may occur.

  In other words, conventional risk finance technology is positioned as an alternative to seismic retrofit, and does not reduce the risk of building earthquakes, but it only holds risks and transfers them to others.

In the event of an earthquake, seismic reinforcement is required to minimize damage to buildings. However, even if the earthquake-proof reinforcement is performed at a large cost, if the earthquake does not actually occur, the effect cannot be realized, so that the earthquake-proof reinforcement is felt useless. In the first place, if the cost of seismic reinforcement cannot be prepared, the seismic reinforcement cannot be implemented.
JP 2003-162641 A

  The conventional risk finance technology described above has a problem in that it cannot suppress the occurrence of damage when an earthquake occurs because it does not actually spread seismic reinforcement of buildings.

  An object of the present invention is to provide a design support apparatus and method for an earthquake-related risk finance product capable of reducing a risk when an earthquake occurs by spreading actual seismic reinforcement.

In order to achieve the above object, the design support apparatus for earthquake-related risk finance products of the present invention performs the earthquake-proof reinforcement work on the target building using the funds collected from the investors as expenses, and is within the redemption period specified in the contract. Design of earthquake-related risk finance products to design financial products that pay the fund to the investor according to the scale of the earthquake that occurred by the owner of the target building in the event of an earthquake of a magnitude or greater A support device,
An annual excess probability database in which the annual excess probability indicating the probability that the magnitude of the earthquake in the target area at the time of the earthquake exceeds a certain value per year is stored for each target area;
Enter the seismic reinforcement cost required for seismic reinforcement work required to increase the structural earthquake resistance performance of the target building to the target value, the redemption period, and the location information of the area where the target building is installed, Based on the location information, the annual excess probability in the area where the target building is installed is read from the annual excess probability database and occurs when an earthquake occurs in the area where the target building is built within the redemption period A payment curve for determining the amount of settlement to be paid by the owner to the investor according to the magnitude of the earthquake is generated and output based on the seismic retrofit cost, the redemption period, and the annual excess probability in the region. And a payment curve creation unit.

  In addition, the payment curve creation unit sets the payment curve so that the amount of the settlement money increases as the magnitude of the earthquake that occurs within the redemption period increases.

  In addition, the payment curve creation unit, from the loss rate when the seismic reinforcement is performed in the target building and the loss rate when the seismic reinforcement is not performed, from the loss amount when the seismic reinforcement is performed and The sum of the amount of damage when the seismic reinforcement is performed and the amount of the settlement set to be paid by the owner does not exceed the amount of damage when the seismic reinforcement is not performed. The payment curve may be set as described above.

  In the earthquake-related risk finance product according to the present invention, first, the earthquake-proof reinforcement work is actually performed using the investment from the investor, so that the risk when an earthquake occurs can be reduced. In other words, compared to conventional risk finance such as conventional earthquake insurance, it is possible to prevent damage itself when an earthquake occurs.

  As described above, according to the present invention, since the seismic retrofitting work is first actually performed using the investment from the investor, the risk when an earthquake occurs by spreading the actual seismic retrofitting. The effect that can be reduced can be obtained.

  Next, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

  First, before describing the design support apparatus for earthquake-related risk finance products of this embodiment, an overview of the earthquake-related risk finance product of this embodiment will be described with reference to FIG.

  (1) First, an intermediary who mediates the earthquake-related risk finance product of the present embodiment collects the investment from the investor as an option fee (premium). Here, a special purpose company (SPC) or the like can be considered as an intermediary.

  (2) The intermediary then performs seismic retrofitting work on the structure of the owner, which is the target building, using the funds collected from the investors as expenses.

  (3) If an earthquake of a size greater than a certain size occurs within the redemption period, which is the period specified in the contract, the owner of the target building will mediate the settlement according to the magnitude of the earthquake that occurred. Pay to investors through

  In this earthquake-related risk financing product, the earthquake-proof reinforcement cost borne by the investor is represented as C, and the building owner's payment amount determined according to the magnitude of the largest earthquake that occurred is P. The cost C and the payment amount P of the building owner have the following relationship.

When the magnitude of the earthquake is small P <C
When the magnitude of the earthquake that occurred is large P> C
In other words, if a large earthquake occurs within the contracted period (redemption period), it is considered that the damage caused by the earthquake was suppressed by the seismic reinforcement work. Pay the settlement. However, even in this case, the settlement money paid by the building owner is set to a value smaller than the amount of damage in the case where the earthquake-proof reinforcement is not performed. In this case, the investor will receive more expenses than the initial investment paid.

  And if a big earthquake does not occur within the contracted period, the merits of the seismic reinforcement work could not be obtained, so no settlement money is paid to the investor. In this case, the investor will not be able to recover the first paid investment.

  Next, an overall procedure for setting an earthquake-related risk finance product in the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing a procedure for designing an earthquake-related risk finance product according to an embodiment of the present invention.

(1) Setting of earthquake-resistant reinforcement target building (group) (step 101)
First, a database that stores a candidate list of structures that are considered to require seismic reinforcement among existing structures nationwide is created. Then, several seismic reinforcement target structures are selected from the created database in consideration of the purpose of use, the building age, the region, the degree of hope of the seismic reinforcement of the owner, and the like. Specifically, 20 reinforced concrete apartment buildings and 30 steel reinforced concrete office buildings are selected from all over the country. However, here, in order to simplify the description, the case where there is one earthquake-proof reinforcement target building will be described.

(2) Seismic performance evaluation of each building (Step 102)
The seismic performance of the building is evaluated according to the seismic diagnostic criteria published by the Japan Building Disaster Prevention Association. The seismic performance can be evaluated with a structural seismic index ( _IS value) based on strength index, toughness index, and other shapes. If the structural seismic index ( _IS value) is less than the specified value (eg 0.6), it is evaluated that the seismic performance is insufficient, and the seismic retrofit will make the structural seismic index ( _IS value) greater than the specified value. It is necessary to.

(3) Setting of seismic reinforcement level (step 103)
Next, the extent to which the earthquake resistance of the structure is improved by the seismic reinforcement work is set. As explained in (2) “Performance evaluation of each building” above (step 102), as a general standard, if seismic reinforcement is performed so that the structural seismic index ( _IS value) is greater than 0.6. Although it is good, in recent years, there is a case where a method (performance design) for setting an arbitrary seismic level as required is employed.

Performance design means not only clearing the standards, but also grasping the required performance and performing seismic reinforcement that matches it. Therefore, the _Is value can be set to a value of 0.6 or less. That is, application-building location of the structure, where considered I _s value is sufficient 0.5 by such ideas of the owner, moderate by 0.5 to I _s value from 0.3 It can be considered that there is a reinforcing effect. Conversely, if 0.6 is considered insufficient, a reinforcement level such as 0.8 or 0.9 may be set.

  In other words, the level of reinforcement of the structure is determined by setting the necessary seismic performance, and in addition, the owner takes into account the cost and ease of use change due to the reinforcement method, the construction method, the construction period, and the like.

(4) Calculation of replacement procurement price (step 104)
The replacement cost means the total cost required to construct the same structure as the present. The repurchasing price is used as a standard for relatively expressing the seismic reinforcement cost and damage amount. For example, when a damage equivalent to 30 million is caused by a certain earthquake on a structure with a repurchased price of 100 million yen, it can be expressed that 30% of the repurchased price has been damaged. In addition, when the required seismic retrofit cost is 10 million yen, the seismic retrofit cost can be expressed as 10% of the replacement cost. In this way, by expressing the ratio with respect to the replacement procurement price, it is possible to determine a plurality of different structures with the same index.

  There are various ways to obtain a replacement price, from detailed methods to simple methods. The most accurate method is to calculate from the estimate of the target building. If there is no estimate, it is possible to obtain an estimate again or to calculate by analogy with a general structure of the same scale.

  However, it is necessary to calculate the repurchasing price for seismic risk assessment separately for each part. For example, the calculation is performed separately for the housing, equipment, interior, exterior, and foundation. Then, the cost required for each part is calculated, and the re-procurement price is obtained by taking the sum.

  For example, if the re-procurement price is 1 for an apartment house, the base price is 0.1, the housing price is 0.3, the equipment price is 0.2, the interior price is 0.2, the exterior price The price of is considered to be 0.2. However, this ratio naturally changes depending on the use of the structure. That is, the ratio of the cost related to the exterior of a building that costs the exterior is higher than that of other buildings.

(5) Calculation of seismic retrofit costs (step 105)
It can be grasped in (2) “Evaluation of performance of each building” (step 102) described above how much reinforcement performance can be obtained with respect to the target building. In this process, it is confirmed how the construction cost of each reinforcement level changes. If the reinforcement level is increased, the number of members to be attached increases, so that the construction cost increases. However, there are various cases depending on the building, such as when the relationship between cost and performance is proportional or not.

  In addition, the calculation of seismic retrofitting costs is considered to be detailed or simplified. There are a case where an estimate is individually made with reference to a design drawing, and a case where an estimate is made based on past performance data.

  Specifically, it is possible to add walls, add braces, reinforce columns with iron plates, increase the size of beams, install seismic dampers, or upgrade to seismic isolation buildings.

(6) Calculation of damage ratio and amount before and after reinforcement (step 106)
Calculate how much damage will be reduced by reinforcement. As shown in FIG. 3, the damage rate is represented by a graph with the vertical axis representing probability and the horizontal axis representing earthquake magnitude.

  The loss rate can also be expressed as a major, medium, or minor damage. In addition, as described in the explanation of the method for calculating the replacement procurement price, it may be necessary to set it separately for each part. For example, it is possible to calculate the damage rate for each case, equipment, interior, exterior, and foundation. However, in general, past damage survey results should be compiled for each category. About how much the loss rate is calculated for each part, data may be created according to the necessity for each financial product.

  The amount of damage is calculated by multiplying the loss rate by the unit price. However, the unit price in this case may be constant or may vary depending on the loss rate. In other words, if the damage rate exceeds a certain value, the amount of damage may increase rapidly. This depends on the characteristics of the target structure.

  The damage rate is estimated from data created based on past earthquake damage survey results. Estimate from the data before and after reinforcement. FIG. 4 shows the amount of damage before and after reinforcement calculated in this way.

  In addition, there is a method of obtaining the damage rate by simulation such as analysis. There is also a method of calculating the damage rate of individual buildings using the simulation results as a database.

(7) Design of earthquake-related risk finance products (step 107)
Next, an earthquake-related risk finance product is designed based on the data calculated in steps 101 to 106 described above. In designing the earthquake-related risk finance product, an earthquake-related risk finance product design support apparatus as shown in FIG. 5 can be used.

  As shown in FIG. 5, the design support apparatus for an earthquake-related risk finance product in this embodiment includes a payment curve creation unit 501 and an annual excess probability database band (DB) 502.

  The year excess probability DB 502 stores in advance the year excess probability for each target area as shown in FIG. The annual excess probability is a probability indicating the probability that the magnitude of the earthquake in the target area at the time of the earthquake exceeds a certain value per year. That is, the annual excess probability is the probability that an earthquake of a certain magnitude or more in that area will occur within the next year. For example, referring to FIG. 6, it can be seen that in this region, the probability that an earthquake with a surface acceleration of 1000 gal or more will occur within the next year is about 0.0008 (0.08%).

  The payment curve creation unit 501 is installed with seismic retrofitting costs, redemption periods, replacement costs, and target buildings necessary for the seismic retrofitting work required to increase the structural seismic performance such as structural seismic index of the target building to the target value. Information such as address, option transaction pattern, strike earthquake scale, damage ratio before and after seismic reinforcement, etc., is input from this information and the annual excess probability stored in the annual excess probability DB 502 Create and output a payment curve to determine the amount of settlement paid by the owner to the investor according to the magnitude of the earthquake that occurred.

  The payment curve creation unit 501 inputs at least the seismic reinforcement cost, the redemption period, and the location information, and calculates the annual excess probability in the area where the target building is installed based on the location information from the annual excess probability DB 501. It is possible to read and create a payment curve.

  The payment curve creation unit 501 sets the payment curve so that the amount of the settlement money increases as the maximum earthquake size of the earthquake that occurred within the redemption period increases. In addition, the payment curve creation unit 501 determines the amount of damage in the case where the seismic reinforcement is performed and the amount of damage in the case where the seismic reinforcement is not performed, from the loss ratio when the seismic reinforcement is performed in the target building and the loss ratio when the seismic reinforcement is not performed. Calculate the amount of loss, so that the sum of the amount of damage when the seismic reinforcement is performed and the amount of the settlement amount that the owner pays does not exceed the amount of damage when the seismic reinforcement is not performed Set the payment curve to. As shown in FIG. 5, the payment curve creation unit 501 sets a payment curve so that the settlement amount is set to zero when an earthquake smaller than the set strike earthquake magnitude occurs. May be.

  However, it is not always necessary to change the amount of settlement depending on whether an earthquake of a certain magnitude or more has occurred, as in the case of setting a strike earthquake scale, and the payment curve should be set as a continuous curve. It may be. In such a case, it is not necessary to input information on the magnitude of the strike earthquake to the payment curve creation unit 501. In other words, the payment curve can be set to any curve as long as the amount of the settlement is set larger as the magnitude of the earthquake occurring within the redemption period increases.

  When determining the setting of a financial product, the design is generally performed according to a flowchart as shown in FIG. The payment curve creation unit 501 in the present embodiment also sets a payment curve by such a method.

  First, design conditions for financial products are set (step 201). Then, the unknown variable is confirmed (step 202), and a parameter metric study is performed (step 203). Finally, the validity as a financial product is confirmed (step 204). If it is determined that the financial product is valid, the process ends. If it is determined that the financial product is not valid, steps 201 to 203 are performed. The process is repeated.

  Next, a method for determining the validity of the earthquake-related risk finance product according to the present embodiment as a financial product using specific values will be described.

  First, in the graph of the annual excess rate as shown in FIG. 6, it is assumed that the annual excess probability when the ground surface acceleration is 200, 400,..., 1000 gal is a value as shown in FIG. Here, since the annual excess probability is the probability that an earthquake of the magnitude or more will occur, when the magnitude of the earthquake is divided into several ranges, the annual occurrence probability in each range becomes a value as shown in FIG. .

  Then, the payment conditions and payment amount (settlement amount) in the payment curve created by the payment curve creation unit 501 in the design support apparatus for earthquake-related risk finance products as shown in FIG. 5 are values as shown in FIG. In this case, as shown in FIG. 11, the expected amount of settlement money that the investor receives in one year is 0.00627 (repurchasing price ratio). That is, if the redemption period is, for example, 30 years, the expected amount of settlement money received by the investor in 30 years is 0.00627 × 30 = 0.1881 (repurchasing price ratio).

  For example, if the seismic retrofit cost invested by the investor is 0.2 (ratio of repurchasing price), the expected amount received by the investor and the expected amount of settlement paid by the owner of the target building are almost the same. It can be said that the setting shown in FIG. 10 is valid as a financial product. In addition, the sum of the amount of damage when the seismic reinforcement is performed and the amount of the settlement amount set to be paid by the owner is compared with the amount of damage when the seismic reinforcement is not performed, and the seismic reinforcement is performed. If the sum of the amount of damage incurred by the owner and the amount of the settlement amount that is set to be paid by the owner does not exceed the amount of damage that would otherwise be caused by seismic reinforcement, it is said that the product is valid as a financial product. be able to.

  FIG. 12 shows an example of the profit and loss of the investor for the maximum earthquake scale that occurred within the redemption period in the earthquake-related risk finance product set as described above. Here, the case where the payment curve is set as a continuous curve will be described. If there is no earthquake that requires payment of settlement during the redemption period, the investor will not receive the settlement, so the capital contribution initially invested as an option fee will be lost. . And if there is a big earthquake within the redemption period, the investor will receive more money depending on the magnitude of the earthquake, so if an earthquake of a certain magnitude or more occurs and receives a settlement more than the investment, Profit will be generated.

  FIG. 13 shows the relationship between the amount paid by the owner of the target building and the maximum earthquake scale that occurred within the redemption period (n years). Referring to FIG. 13, of course, the amount of damage without reinforcement is larger than the amount of damage with reinforcement. In addition, the amount paid by the owner is the portion indicated by diagonal lines, but if an earthquake of a certain magnitude or greater occurs, the owner will be obligated to pay the settlement according to the magnitude of the earthquake. It can be seen that the larger the scale, the larger the owner's payment.

  Furthermore, in FIG. 13, the owner pays the earthquake-proof reinforcement work with his own funds without using the earthquake-related risk finance product of the present embodiment, that is, the sum of the damage amount at the time of reinforcement and the reinforcement cost. Is indicated by a dotted line.

  Here, assuming that the cost of reinforcement is C, the amount of damage at the time of reinforcement is L, and the amount of settlement paid by the owner is P, the total amount of funds that the owner must bear when reinforcing with his own funds is C + L Thus, the total amount of funds that must be borne when the owner uses the earthquake-related risk finance product of the present embodiment is P + L.

  Therefore, when only an earthquake of a magnitude that satisfies C + L> P + L has occurred, the owner will pass on the cost required for seismic reinforcement to investors by using the earthquake-related risk finance product of this embodiment. In the event of a successful earthquake with a magnitude of C + L <P + L, the owner will enjoy the actual reinforcement effect of the seismic reinforcement, and the investor will pay an amount more than the initial seismic reinforcement cost. Will pay.

  Here, the magnitude of the earthquake in which C + L = P + L, that is, C (reinforcing cost) = P (the amount of payment paid by the owner) is shown as a in FIG.

  Also, referring to this graph, the sum of the amount of damage when the earthquake-proof reinforcement is performed and the amount of the settlement amount that the owner is set to pay is the amount of damage when the earthquake-proof reinforcement is not performed. It can be seen that it is set not to exceed.

  In the earthquake-related risk finance product of the present embodiment, first, the earthquake-proof reinforcement work is actually performed using the investment from the investor, so that the risk when an earthquake occurs can be reduced. In other words, compared to conventional risk finance such as conventional earthquake insurance, it is possible to prevent damage itself when an earthquake occurs. In addition, the investment risk when an earthquake does not occur can be distributed to investors without burdening only the building owner.

  In addition, when selling the earthquake-related risk finance product shown in the present embodiment as a financial product, it may be sold alone, but may be sold in combination with other financial products. Even if it is not appropriate as a single financial product, it is appropriate by positioning it as one of multiple financial products (such as a combination of high-risk, high-return and low-risk, low-return types) within the framework of a portfolio. This is because there may be cases where the

  For example, by combining the earthquake-related risk finance product shown in this embodiment with normal earthquake insurance, the owner of the building can compensate for the damage actually received by the earthquake with earthquake insurance when a large earthquake occurs Therefore, it is possible to minimize the generation of expenses when an earthquake occurs.

  In the present embodiment, the ground surface acceleration (the ground surface maximum acceleration) is used as an index representing the magnitude of the earthquake. However, the present invention is not limited to such a case, and the ground surface speed (the ground surface maximum) is used. It can also be set using other indices such as speed), seismic intensity, and magnitude.

  In addition, the scale of earthquakes used in the earthquake-related risk finance product of this embodiment is measured by seismometers installed by third-party organizations such as the Japan Meteorological Agency and the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, and earthquake observation points such as earthquake stations. Use the officially published values. Since these seismic observation points are installed in various places throughout Japan, seismic observation points installed around the location of the target building are selected and determined in advance by a contract.

  Although not shown in FIG. 5, the earthquake-related risk finance product design support apparatus of the present embodiment records a program for executing the earthquake-related risk finance product design support method described above. It has a medium. This recording medium may be a magnetic disk, a semiconductor memory, or another recording medium. This program is read from the recording medium into the design support apparatus, and controls the operation of the design support apparatus. Specifically, the above processing is realized by the CPU in the design support apparatus instructing the hardware resource of the design support apparatus to perform a specific process under the control of this program.

It is a figure for demonstrating the outline | summary of the earthquake related risk finance product in one Embodiment of this invention. It is the flowchart which showed the procedure at the time of designing the earthquake related risk finance product in one Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the damage rate before and after a seismic reinforcement. It is a figure which shows the amount of damage before and after earthquake-proof reinforcement. It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the design support apparatus of the earthquake related risk finance product in this embodiment. It is a figure which shows an example of a year excess probability. It is a flowchart which shows the general process at the time of determining the setting of a financial product. It is a figure which shows the value of the year excess probability in the earth surface acceleration in 200, 400, ..., 1000gal. It is a figure which shows the value of the annual occurrence probability in each range, when the magnitude | size of an earthquake scale is divided | segmented into several ranges. It is a figure which shows the payment conditions and the payment amount (amount of adjustment money) in the payment curve produced by the payment curve creation part 501. FIG. It is a figure which shows the method of calculating the expected amount of the adjustment money which an investor receives in one year. It is a figure which shows the profit and loss of the investor with respect to the largest earthquake scale which occurred within the redemption period. It is a figure which shows the relationship between the amount of money which the owner of an object building pays, and the maximum earthquake magnitude which occurred within the redemption period (n years).

Explanation of symbols

101-107 steps 201-204 steps 501 payment curve creation unit 502 year excess probability DB (database)

Claims (6)

Seismic reinforcement work on the target building was conducted using the capital collected from the investor as an expense, and the owner of the target building occurred when an earthquake of a size larger than the size within the redemption period specified in the contract occurred. A design support device for an earthquake-related risk finance product for designing a financial product that pays a settlement according to the magnitude of an earthquake to the investor,
An annual excess probability database in which the annual excess probability indicating the probability that the magnitude of the earthquake in the target area at the time of the earthquake exceeds a certain value per year is stored for each target area;
Enter the seismic reinforcement cost required for seismic reinforcement work required to increase the structural earthquake resistance performance of the target building to the target value, the redemption period, and the location information of the area where the target building is installed, Based on the location information, the annual excess probability in the area where the target building is installed is read from the annual excess probability database and occurs when an earthquake occurs in the area where the target building is built within the redemption period A payment curve for determining the amount of settlement to be paid by the owner to the investor according to the magnitude of the earthquake is generated and output based on the seismic retrofit cost, the redemption period, and the annual excess probability in the region. An apparatus for supporting the design of earthquake-related risk finance products, comprising a payment curve creation unit.   2. The design support for an earthquake-related risk finance product according to claim 1, wherein the payment curve creation unit sets the payment curve so that the amount of the settlement money increases as the magnitude of an earthquake occurring within the redemption period increases. apparatus.   The payment curve creation unit determines the amount of loss when earthquake-proof reinforcement is performed and the loss when it is not performed, based on the loss rate when earthquake-proof reinforcement is performed on the target building and the loss rate when earthquake-proof reinforcement is not performed. Calculate the amount and make sure that the sum of the amount of damage when the seismic reinforcement is performed and the amount of the settlement amount that the owner pays does not exceed the amount of damage when the seismic reinforcement is not performed. The earthquake-related risk finance product design support apparatus according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the payment curve is set. Seismic reinforcement work on the target building was conducted using the capital collected from the investor as an expense, and the owner of the target building occurred when an earthquake of a size larger than the size within the redemption period specified in the contract occurred. A design support method for an earthquake-related risk finance product for designing a financial product for paying a settlement according to the magnitude of an earthquake to the investor,
A step of inputting seismic reinforcement costs required for seismic reinforcement work required to increase the structural seismic performance of the target building to a target value, the redemption period, and location information of the area where the target building is installed. When,
Based on the location information, the annual excess probability in the area where the target building is installed, and the annual excess probability indicating the probability that the earthquake scale in the target area at the time of the earthquake exceeds a certain value per year Reading from the annual excess probability database stored for each region;
A payment curve for determining the amount of settlement paid by the owner to the investor according to the magnitude of the earthquake that occurred when an earthquake occurred in the area where the target building was built within the redemption period, A design support method for an earthquake-related risk finance product, comprising: creating and outputting the earthquake-proof reinforcement cost based on the repayment period, the redemption period, and the annual excess probability in the region.   5. The earthquake-related risk financing product according to claim 4, wherein in the step of creating the payment curve, the payment curve is set such that the amount of the settlement money increases as the magnitude of the earthquake that occurs within the redemption period increases. Design support method.   In the step of creating the payment curve, from the loss rate when the earthquake-proof reinforcement is performed in the target building and the loss rate when the earthquake-proof reinforcement is not performed, and the amount of damage when the earthquake-proof reinforcement is not performed The sum of the amount of damage when the seismic reinforcement is performed and the amount of the settlement set to be paid by the owner does not exceed the amount of damage when the seismic reinforcement is not performed. The method for supporting the design of an earthquake-related risk finance product according to claim 4 or 5, wherein the payment curve is set as follows.

Images