JP2005004234A - System and method for guaranteeing housing type nonrecourse loan, and apparatus and program for supporting housing type nonrecourse loan guaranteeing operation - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a housing type nonrecourse loan guaranteeing system in which that burden on a debtor is reduced and no disadvantage is given to a creditor when the debtor goes into default on an obligation. <P>SOLUTION: The housing type nonrecourse loan guaranteeing system is provide with a guarantee amount simulator that calculates the balance of property that a user bought from a seller and the balance of the debt of a loan that the user had from a creditor and at a specified point of time in future, and also calculates the amount of guarantee money that the user pays when financed according to the property balance and the debt balance, and a management simulator that predicts the income and expenditure of a guarantor on the basis of the property balance, the debut balance, and the amount of guarantee money that the guarantee amount simulator calculates when the user goes into default and has a deficient amount such that the property balance is too small to cover the debt balance and the guarantor pays the deficient amount. The income and expenditure of the guarantor is shown as the difference amount obtained by subtracting the deficient amount and the total expenditure of the guarantor side in a fixed period from at least the total amount of the guarantee money in a fixed period. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2005,JPO&NCIPI

Description

【００６３】
また、変動率がベクトル（ｊ）で与えられた場合、ｉ年度の資産残高「ＡＶ_ｉ」は次の式により求められる。
【数２】

【００６４】
上記数式１または数式２により、資産残高「ＡＶ_ｉ」が求められると、次の式３により資産売却時の回収額「ＲＶ_ｉ」を算出することができる。
【数３】

【００６５】
（２）資産売却時の債務残高「ＬＢ_ｉ」を算出する処理
図６に、債務額について１０００千円単位で、債務残高をシミュレーションした例が示されている。
【００６６】
資産売却時の債務残高「ＬＢ_ｉ」を算出するためには、先ず、貸付期間ｍ年の年払元利均等返済額「Ｐ_ｍ」が求められる。
貸付期間ｍ年の貸付利率ｒ_ｍの場合、年払元利均等返済額「Ｐ_ｍ」（貸付元本１円あたり）は次の式により求められる。
【００６７】
【数４】

【００６８】
上記数式４により、貸付期間ｍ年の年払元利均等返済額「Ｐ_ｍ」が求められる。
そして、この年払元利均等返済額「Ｐ_ｍ」を利用して、次式より、各年次の債務残高「ＬＢ_ｍ，ｉ」が算出される。
【００６９】
【数５】

【００７０】
すなわち、次年度の債務残高「ＬＢ_{ｍ，ｉ＋１}」は、今年度の債務残高「ＬＢ_ｍ，ｉ」から返済額「Ｐ_ｍ」を引き、利息「ＬＢ_ｍ，ｉ×ｒ_ｍ」を足すことにより算出される。
【００７１】
（３）資産売却時の回収額「ＲＶ_ｉ」と債務残高「ＬＢ_ｍ，ｉ」を比較し保証額「ＬＧ」を算出する処理
図６に、債務額について１０００千円単位で、頭金率毎に保証額をシミュレーションした例が示されている。
【００７２】
保証がなされるか否かは、回収額「ＲＶ_ｉ」と債務残高「ＬＢ_ｍ，ｉ」を比較し、回収額「ＲＶ_ｉ」が債務残高「ＬＢ_ｍ，ｉ」より少ない場合に保証されることが決定される。その際の保証額「ＬＧ」は、回収額「ＲＶ_ｉ」と債務残高「ＬＢ_ｍ，ｉ」との差額になる。
【００７３】
すなわち、資産残高「ＡＶ」と、債務残高「ＬＢ」の差が大きい借り手ほど、大きい保証額になる。本例のシミュレータでは、資産残高「ＡＶ」に、社会情勢や資産状況に応じて変動率が勘案されているので、資産の下落する度合いを適正に予測することができる。よって、例えば購入時の価格が同じであっても、物件の状況に応じて異なる保証額が予測される。このため、デューデリジェンスに対応した保証額を算出することが可能である。
【００７４】
保証額「ＬＧ」は、次式より求められる。
【数６】

【００７５】
このように、保証額は、頭金額に応じて異なる数値となる。すなわち、最初に多くの頭金を払っていればいるほど、保証額は少なくて済むことになる。
【００７６】
（４）借り手が支払うべき一時払保証料の額を算出する処理
図７に、図６で算出された保証額のうち、頭金率０％のケースにおける保証額をシミュレーションした例が示されている。
【００７７】
各年で借り手が支払うべき保証料額「ＩＰ_ｉ」は、各年で債務不履行が起こったときに支払われる保証額「ＬＧ_ｉ」と事故率「ＤＲ_ｉ」より算出される。
【００７８】
事故率「ＤＲ_ｉ」は、頭金の額と貸付期間から決められており、借り手それぞれで異なる事故率となっている。このため、資産残高と債務残高の差が大きく、また事故率の高い借り手ほど、高い保証料を払うことになる。
【００７９】
【数７】

【００８０】
本例では、借り手から集めた保証料を運用することを想定し、運用利率についても計算式に入れて、純保証料として算出する。運用期間によって利率が異なる場合は、運用期間別に異なる利率で計算を行う。
【００８１】
保証料を運用した場合、借り手が支払うべき保証料は運用分だけ安くなる。
運用を行った場合の現価率、すなわち、借り手が支払うべき保証料について、運用分を勘案した割合は、次の式により求められる。
【数８】

【００８２】
運用を勘案した場合に、各年度で借り手が支払うべき純保証料額は、次式により求められる。
【数９】

【００８３】
保証料は、融資を受けたときに一括して支払うものであるため、各年の純保証料を累積し、一時払純保証料として算出する。
【数１０】

【数１１】

【００８４】
図７の例では、一時払純保証料は１２，３８９．４円となっている。
このようにして、債務不履行が起こった場合の保証額を予測し、予測された保証額に基づいて、適正な保証料が算出される。
なお、図８は、貸付期間２０年のローンについて、千円当たりの保証料を頭金率別に示したものである。このように、頭金率が多いほど、借り手が支払うべき保証料額は少なくなるものである。
【００８５】
第１のコンピュータ装置１０での算出結果は、出力部１４に出力される。出力部１４とは、例えばコンピュータ装置のモニター、プリンタ、スピーカーである。なお、通信回線網を介して外部に出力される構成としても良い。
【００８６】
ＩＩ．経営シミュレータ
経営シミュレータは、保証会社の経営を健全に行うことができるか否かをシミュレーションするものである。経営シミュレータは、将来的にどのような経営状況になるのか予測することができる。なお、実績値を入力した場合は、保証会社が所定期間活動した結果を示すこともできる。
【００８７】
経営シミュレータは、図９に示すように、第２のコンピュータ装置２０からなり、経営情報を入力する入力部２１と、経営情報を記憶する記憶部２２と、演算処理を行う制御部２３と、制御部２３での演算結果を出力する出力部２４と、を備えている。なお、第２のコンピュータ２０において、第１のコンピュータ装置１０と同様な構成については説明を省略する。
【００８８】
本例では、保証料シミュレータが第１のコンピュータ装置１０に設けられ、経営シミュレータが第２のコンピュータ装置２０に設けられたとして説明しているが、保証料シミュレータと経営シミュレータとが、同一のコンピュータ装置に設けられていても良いことは勿論である。
【００８９】
また、上記第１のコンピュータ１０または第２のコンピュータ２０としては、デスクトップ型のパソコンの他、モバイル端末を使用した構成としても良い。モバイル端末としては、ノートパソコン、電子手帳型携帯情報ツールの他、携帯型ゲーム機、携帯電話を含み、さらに本例のシステム専用の携帯用端末を含むものである。
【００９０】
入力部２１からは、シミュレーションに必要な情報が入力される。情報としては、保証業務に直接関係する情報と、会社運営に関係する情報とがある。情報は、現時点の情報までは実績値が入力され、将来的な情報については予測値が入力される。
【００９１】
保証業務から直接発生する情報として、保証会社が扱う予定の物件の件数や、手数料額が入力される。また、貸付期間、貸付利率、保証料率、取扱物件の伸び率、１件あたりの保証額、事故率、代位弁済の回収率、契約の非解約率に関する設定値が入力される。
【００９２】
図１０には、シミュレーションの一例として、初年度に住宅２０００件、アパート等の収益物件１００件を扱うケースが示されている。貸付期間としては一般的な期間が設定され、例えば、２０年、２５年、３０年、３５年の４パターンが設定されている。
【００９３】
物件の貸付期間についての配分率は、過去の一般的な数値に基づいて設定される。配分率は、例えば、貸付期間２０年の物件が全体の５％、貸付期間２５年の物件が全体の７０％、貸付期間３０年の物件が全体の２０％、貸付期間３５年の物件が全体の５％として設定される。
【００９４】
貸付利率は、本例では３％に設定されている。保証料率は、保証額に対する保証料の割合であり、住宅物件と収益物件それぞれについて貸付期間別に値が設定されている。
【００９５】
本例では、住宅物件については、貸付期間２０年の場合は保証料率１．４８％、２５年の場合は保証料率１．７３％、３０年の場合は保証料率１．９１％、３５年の場合は保証料率２．０７％として保証料率を設定している。
【００９６】
また、収益物件については、貸付期間２０年の場合は保証料率１．９７％、２５年の場合は保証料率２．２５％、３０年の場合は保証料率２．５１％、３５年の場合は保証料率２．７３％として保証料率を設定している。
【００９７】
手数料は、保証会社が保証業務を行う上で、借り手から受け取る手数料であり、住宅物件については３万円、収益物件については７万円として設定されている。
【００９８】
物件の伸び率については、本例では、最初の１〜２年は物件数の伸びが大きく且つ母数が小さいため大きめの数値が設定され、以降は安定的な数字が入力されている。
【００９９】
１件あたりの保証額について、本例では、住宅物件について１件当たり２０００万円、収益物件について１件当たり１億円として設定している。
【０１００】
事故率とは、債務不履行が発生する事故率であり、経験率に基づいて設定されている。事故率については、初年度は０．１０％と低めに設定されており、２年目、３年目は、それぞれ０．４％、０．３％と比較的高めに設定されている。これは、２年目、３年目で債務不履行が発生する確率が高いことを示している。また、５年目以降の事故率については、０．２０％に設定されている。なお、事故率について、頭金の額に応じて異なる設定としても良い。
【０１０１】
代位弁済回収率とは、代位弁済を行った場合に、どのくらい回収できるかを示す数値であり、本例では７５％に設定されている。
非解約率として、本例ではとりあえず解約がないものとして１００％に設定されている。
【０１０２】
なお、より実際に即したシミュレーションを行うために、上記配分率、保証料率、手数料、件数伸び率、事故率、代位弁済回収率は、一定値ではなくベクトル値として設定されていると好適である。
【０１０３】
経営情報のうち、会社運営に関する情報としては、資本金、会社設立時の現金預金、未払法人税、給与、販管費、事務所の賃貸料、事務所立上費用、保有資産運用などの営業外収益等がある。これらの情報について、予測値または実績値が入力される。
【０１０４】
なお、上記給与、販管費、事務所の賃貸料、保有資産運用による収益額については、経過年毎に変化するものとしてベクトル値が設定され、各年毎に予測値が設定されるように構成される。
【０１０５】
第２のコンピュータ２０は、上記情報に基づいて演算処理を行い、図１１乃至図１６に示すように、キャッシュフロー一覧、営業収入一覧、保証額一覧、取扱物件数一覧、貸借対照表、損益計算書、を出力する。
【０１０６】
図１１に示すように、キャッシュフロー一覧では、現金の流れを見ることができ、財務の健全性を把握することができる。キャッシュフロー一覧では、各年度別に、前年繰越高、経常収支として経常収入及び経常支出、財務収支として財務収入及び財務支出が表示される。
【０１０７】
経常収入の科目としては、住宅物件及び収益物件それぞれの保証料収入、住宅物件及び収益物件それぞれの保証手数料、住宅物件及び収益物件それぞれの解約手数料、代位弁済費用の回収、受取利息及び雑収入等がある。
【０１０８】
保証料収入は、物件数と、１件当たり保証額と、保証料率から算出される。保証料率は貸付期間によって分類された物件毎に異なるため、貸付期間別の物件数と、保証料率を反映させて算出する。
【０１０９】
解約手数料は、本例ではとりあえず非解約率１００％として設定しているので、発生していない。代位弁済費用回収額は、予測される代位弁済費用に、代位弁済回収率をかけることにより算出される。
受取利息は、収入保証料を運営したものとして算出される。
【０１１０】
経常支出の科目として、給与、付帯人件費、賃貸料、事務所立上費用、解約払戻保証料、代位弁済費用、販管費、支払利息、その他支出、法人税等支払等に関する情報が入力される。
【０１１１】
財務収入の科目として、資本金、借入金等があり、財務支出の科目としては、借入金返済、差入保証金、固定資産購入等に関する情報が入力される。
そして、前年繰越高に経常収入計を合算し、経常支出計を減算したものが、翌年繰越高となる。
【０１１２】
図１２に営業収入一覧を示す。営業収入一覧からは、住宅物件の平均保証料率、収益物件の平均保証料率、合算平均保証料率を算出することができ、適正な保証料収入があるかどうかを検証することが可能である。
【０１１３】
営業収入一覧では、各年度別に、住宅物件及び収益物件それぞれの件数、住宅物件及び収益物件それぞれの保証料額、住宅物件及び収益物件それぞれの受取保証料収入、住宅物件及び収益物件それぞれの手数料額、保証料の累積額、手数料の累積額、住宅物件及び収益物件それぞれの解約件数、住宅物件及び収益物件それぞれの解約手数料額、住宅物件及び収益物件それぞれの払戻保証料額が表示される。
【０１１４】
図１３に保証額一覧を示す。保証額一覧では、保証額の推移を把握することができる。保証額一覧では、各年度別に、住宅物件及び収益物件それぞれについて、貸付期間別に年間保証額が示される。
【０１１５】
図１４に取扱物件数一覧を示す。保証額一覧では、取扱物件数の推移を把握することができる。取扱物件数一覧では、各年度別に、住宅物件及び収益物件それぞれについて、貸付期間別に取扱件数が表示される。
【０１１６】
さらに、本例の経営シミュレータでは、貸借対照表、損益計算書が表示される。図１５に貸借対照表を示す。貸借対照表により、特定期日における保証会社の財政の内容と純損益の静態を把握することができる。
【０１１７】
貸借対照表の資産の部には、現金預金、差入保証金、求償権等が含まれる。
また、負債・資本の部には、住宅物件未経過保証料、収益物件未経過保証料、未払法人税、資本金、当期未処分利益金が含まれる。
【０１１８】
図１６に損益計算書を示す。損益計算書より、保証会社の企業活動により、１営業期間に生じた純損益を把握することができるとともに、その純損益を出すに至った経過を知ることが可能である。
【０１１９】
損益計算書には、営業収益として、収入保証料、保証手数料、解約手数料営業収益が表示され、営業費・管理費として給与、販管費、賃貸料、事務所立上費用、代位弁済差損、払戻保証料、その他費用が表示されている。
【０１２０】
そして、営業収益と営業費・管理費の差から得られる営業損益、営業損益に営業外収益，株式発行費用，創業費，その他を加減した経常損益、経常損益から法人税等を減じた税引後損益が表示されている。さらに、経常損益の累計と、税引後損益の累計が表示されている。
【０１２１】
上記構成からなる保証料シミュレータ及び経営シミュレータを用いて、住宅ローンにおけるノンリコースローンを実現するために、最適な保証料を算出するとともに、保証会社が健全な経営を続けていくためのシミュレーションを行うことが可能となる。
【０１２２】
図１７は、本例の住宅型ノンリコースローン保証システムにおける、保証料シミュレータと経営シミュレータの関連を示す流れ図である。
【０１２３】
先ず、最初のステップＳ１として、事故率、貸付利率、土地値下がり率等に変動があった場合、ステップＳ２で、保証料シミュレータを使用して、保証料及び保証料率にどれくらいの変動があるのかを確認する。
【０１２４】
保証料シミュレータによって、条件変動後の保証料及び保証料率が求められたら、ステップＳ３で、算出された保証料と、変更のあった条件とに基づいて経営シミュレータによるシミュレーションが行われる。
【０１２５】
事故率の変更は、借り手が支払う保証料に関係する。また、貸付利率の変更は返済額に関係し、結果として債務残高に関係する。また、土地値下がり率は、資産残高に関係し、結果として回収額に関係する。
【０１２６】
このため、事故率が変更になった場合は、図１０に示される経営シミュレータで使用されるデータのうち、事故率及び保証料率に関係することになる。また、貸付利率の変更と、土地値下がり率の変更は、経営シミュレータにおいて、保証額に関係することになる。
【０１２７】
したがって、条件の変更に基づいて、経営シミュレータにおける事故率や保証料率、或いは１件当たり保証額を変更し、シミュレーションを行う。そして、シミュレーションの結果得られるキャッシュフロー、貸借対照表、損益計算書に基づいて、条件変動があった場合に、健全な経営が継続できるかどうかを判定する。
【０１２８】
そして、条件変更があった場合に、現状のままでは健全な経営が継続できないと判断された場合は、収入をどれくらい増加させるのか、或いは支出をどれくらい縮小できるのか、について検討を行う。
このようにして、ステップＳ４において、最終的に最適な保証料（営業保証料）が決定される。営業保証料には、純保証料と、事務経費に対する保証料が含まれる。
【０１２９】
図１８は、図１７のブロック図のステップＳ３における経営シミュレーションの流れについて更に詳細に示したものである。
先ず、ステップＳ１１で、事故率、貸付利率、土地値下がり率等の変更条件が入力される。そして、ステップＳ１２で計算処理が行われ、収入保証料の算出や、収支計算が行われる。
【０１３０】
ステップＳ１３では、計算結果が仮出力される。この仮出力された資料について判断がなされ、ステップＳ１４で、この結果を承認するか否かが入力される。承認された場合（ステップＳ１４；Ｙｅｓ）、ステップＳ１５で最終結果が出力されて処理を終了し、最終的な経営判断がなされる。ステップＳ１４で承認されなかった場合（ステップＳ１４；Ｎｏ）、ステップＳ１６で保証料率、手数料、人件費等について変更がなされ、ステップＳ１１〜ステップＳ１４の処理を繰り返す。
【０１３１】
ここで、保証料シミュレータと、経営シミュレータで行われる各プログラム処理について説明する。
【０１３２】
先ず、保証料シミュレーションプログラムについて説明する。保証料シミュレーションプログラムは、所定の物件について、適切な保証料額を設定するものである。
【０１３３】
ステップＳ２１で、シミュレーションに必要な情報が入力される。情報としては、例えば図２に示すフォームに従って、購入時の資産総計、貸付期間、当初借入額、頭金の額、資産の条件が入力される。
【０１３４】
ステップＳ２２で、記憶部から、貸付利率、シミュレーションする物件に該当する変動率、実売率、売却率、運用利率、事故率が読み出される。これらのデータは、自動的に所定の数値が読み出される構成であっても良いし、一覧として提示されたもののなかから適宜選択される構成であっても良い。なお、上記事故率は、頭金の割合及び貸付期間に応じて選択される。
【０１３５】
上記ステップＳ２１，ステップＳ２２で、演算に必要な情報が入力及び読み出しされたら、ステップＳ２３〜ステップＳ３０において演算処理が行われる。
ステップＳ２３では、貸付期間における各年毎の資産残高「ＡＶ_ｉ」が計算される。資産残高「ＡＶ_ｉ」は、購入時の土地価格「ＧＶ_０」，建物価格「ＣＶ_０」，変動率「ＧＲ」，「ＣＲ」から算出される。
【０１３６】
ステップＳ２４では、各年毎の回収額「ＲＶ_ｉ」が算出される。回収額「ＲＶ」は、各年の資産残高「ＡＶ_ｉ」，実売率「ＰＲ」，売却率「ＳＲ」から算出される。
ステップＳ２５では、貸付期間における各年毎の債務残高「ＬＢ_{ｍ，ｉ＋１}」が計算される。債務残高「ＬＢ_{ｍ，ｉ＋１}」は、各年の年払元利均等返済額「Ｐ_ｍ」と、前年の債務残高「ＬＢ_ｍ，ｉ」と、利息とから算出される。
【０１３７】
ステップＳ２６では、回収額「ＲＶ_ｉ」と、債務残高「ＬＢ_ｍ，ｉ」とが比較され、回収額「ＲＶ_ｉ」を債務残高「ＬＢ_ｍ，ｉ」が上回っているか否かが判定される。このとき、頭金が有る場合は、債務残高「ＬＢ_ｍ，ｉ」に頭金率「ｙｙ」を反映させて、対比を行う。なお、債務残高「ＬＢ_ｍ，ｉ」に頭金率「ｙｙ」を反映させるときは、次の計算式により行う。
【数１２】

【０１３８】
回収額を債務残高が上回っている場合（ステップＳ２６；Ｙｅｓ）、ステップＳ２７で、貸付期間における各年毎の保証額「ＬＧ_{ｍ，ｙｙ，ｉ}」が計算される。回収額を債務残高が上回っていない場合（ステップＳ２６；Ｎｏ）、処理を終了する。
【０１３９】
保証料は、ステップＳ２８〜ステップＳ３０で決定される。先ず、ステップＳ８で、各年で借り手が支払うべき保証料額「ＩＰ_ｉ」が算出される。保証料額「ＩＰ_ｉ」は、各年で債務不履行が起こったときに支払われる保証額「ＬＧ_ｉ」と事故率「ＤＲ_ｉ」より算出される。
【０１４０】
さらに、ステップＳ２９で、保証料の運用を勘案した場合に、各年度で借り手が支払うべき保証料額が算出され、ステップＳ３０で融資を受けたときに一括して支払う一時払準保証料が算出される。
【０１４１】
次に、経営シミュレーションプログラムについて説明する。
ステップＳ４１で、予め設定されている貸付利率、事故率、土地値下がり率等に関する設定値について変更があるかどうか確認される。設定値に変更がある場合、ステップＳ４２で変更処理を行う。
【０１４２】
ステップＳ４３で、シミュレーションに必要な情報として、保証料シミュレータで算出された資産残高（回収額）、債務残高、保証額、保証料額に関するデータ、物件の件数、手数料の額が入力される。また、会社を運営する上で発生する情報として、資本金、会社設立時の現金預金、未払法人税、給与、販管費、事務所の賃貸料、事務所立上費用、保有資産運用などの情報が入力される。
【０１４３】
なお、物件の件数、手数料、給与、販管費、事務所の賃貸料、保有資産運用による収益額については、経過年毎に変化するものとして、各年毎に予測値が算出される。
【０１４４】
ステップＳ４３では、さらに、シミュレーションに必要な情報として、貸付期間の配分率、貸付利率、保証料率、物件件数伸び率、事故率、代位弁済回収率、非解約率等のデータについて読み出しが行われる。これらのデータは、自動的に所定の数値が読み出される構成であっても良いし、一覧として提示されたもののなかから適宜選択される構成であっても良い。
【０１４５】
ステップＳ４４で、貸付期間が設定される。本例では、貸付期間２０年の物件が全体の５％であり、貸付期間２５年の物件が全体の７０％であり、貸付期間３０年の物件が全体の２０％であり、貸付期間３５年の物件が全体の５％として設定される。
【０１４６】
ステップＳ４５では、演算処理が行われる。
演算処理により、キャッシュフロー一覧、営業収入一覧、保証額一覧、取扱物件数一覧、貸借対照表、損益計算書の少なくとも一つが作成される。
【０１４７】
キャッシュフロー一覧を作成するために、経常収支、経常収支累計、財務収支、翌年繰越高が算出される。
【０１４８】
また、営業収入一覧を作成するために、保証料累計、受取手数料累計が算出される。また、保証額一覧を作成するために、貸付期間別保証額、保証額累計が算出される。さらに、取扱件数一覧を作成するために、取扱件数の予測値が算出される。
【０１４９】
貸借対照表を作成するために、資産合計、未経過保証料、当期未処分利益、負債資本合計が算出される。
また、損益計算書を作成するために、営業収益計、営業費用計、営業損益、営業外費用計、経常損益、税引後損益、経常損益累計、税引後損益累計が算出される。
【０１５０】
ステップＳ４６で、キャッシュフロー一覧、営業収入一覧、保証額一覧、取扱物件数一覧、貸借対照表、損益計算書等の結果情報が出力される。
【０１５１】
ここで、出力結果について判断がなされ、ステップＳ４７で、この結果を承認するか否かが入力される。承認された場合（ステップＳ４７；Ｙｅｓ）、ステップＳ４８で最終結果が出力されて処理を終了し、最終的な経営判断がなされる。
【０１５２】
ステップＳ４７で承認されなかった場合（ステップＳ４７；Ｎｏ）、ステップＳ４９で、保証料率を引き上げたり、一定条件を満たさない案件については保証を行わないようにしたり、既にそうしている場合には、前記一定条件についての変更を行う。そして、ステップＳ４１〜ステップＳ４７の処理を繰り返す。なお、一定条件としては、具体的には、頭金額が債務金額の特定割合となっていること、例えば１０〜３０％となっていること等が設定される。
【０１５３】
上記実施形態から把握できる請求項以外の技術的思想を以下に記載する。
（１）前記事故率は、頭金の額，貸付期間を反映させて設定されることを特徴とする請求項１記載の住宅型ノンリコースローン保証システム。
（２）前記キャッシュフロー一覧は、前記保証料、手数料のいずれかまたは両方を含む経常収入と、
給与、付帯人件費、事務所賃貸料、事務所立上費用、解約払戻保証料、代位弁済費用、販管費、支払利息、事業税、法人税等支払のうち一つまたは二つ以上の組合せを含む経常支出と、
資本金、借入金のいずれかまたは両方を含む財務収入と、
借入金返済、差入保証料、固定資産購入のうち一つまたは二つ以上の組合せを含む財務支出と、からなることを特徴とする請求項４記載の住宅型ノンリコースローン保証システム。
（３）前記営業収入一覧は、前記保証料、保証手数料のいずれかまたは両方が営業収入として示されることを特徴とする請求項４記載の住宅型ノンリコースローン保証システム。
（４）前記保証額一覧は、貸付期間別に保証額を表示することを特徴とする請求項４記載の住宅型ノンリコースローン保証システム。
（５）前記貸借対照表の借方には現金預金、差入保証金、求償権のうち一つまたは二つ以上の組合せが記載され、前記貸借対照表の貸方には未経過保証料、未払法人税等、資本金、当期未処分利益のうち一つまたは二つ以上の組合せが記載されたことを特徴とする請求項４記載の住宅型ノンリコースローン保証システム。（６）前記損益計算書には、営業収益として保証料、手数料のいずれかまたは両方が記載され、営業費及び管理費として給与、販管費、事務所賃貸料、事務所立上費用、代位弁済費用、払戻保証料のうち一つまたは二つ以上の組合せが記載されたことを特徴とする請求項４記載の住宅型ノンリコースローン保証システム。
【０１５４】
【発明の効果】
以上のように、本発明の住宅型ノンリコースローン保証システムによれば、最適な保証料を算出する保証料シミュレータと、保証会社の経営の健全性を示す経営シミュレータとを備えており、住宅ローンのノンリコースローンを実現することができる。
【０１５５】
住宅ローンのノンリコースローンが実現されることにより、債務不履行が起こった場合でも借り手を追いつめることなく、借り手の負担を軽減することが可能となる。
【０１５６】
保証料シミュレータでは、立地や築年数などの資産の状況、または頭金額や貸付期間に応じて保証料が決定されるので、債務不履行が起こった場合の再販回収率までをも考慮した保証料設定を行うことが可能となる。
【０１５７】
また、借り手本位のシステムであることは勿論、経営シミュレータにより、５年後、１０年後の経営シミュレーションもできるように構成されているので、保証会社側に不利益が発生するのを防止し、健全な経営を継続して行うことが可能となる。
【０１５８】
本発明の経営シミュレータでは、結果情報として、キャッシュフロー一覧、営業収入一覧、保証額一覧、取扱物件数一覧、貸借対照表、損益計算書が作成されるように構成されているので、株主や取引金融機関への対応も明快に行うことが可能となる。
【０１５９】
また、シミュレーションに使用するデータについては、状況に応じて変更することができるので、不測の事故や、大地震等の天災による影響も計ることができ、料率の変更、株式配当の見通しも容易に行うことが可能となる。
【図面の簡単な説明】
【図１】本発明の住宅型ノンリコースローン保証システムの仕組みを示す概念図である。
【図２】保証料シミュレータのハード構成を示す説明図である。
【図３】保証料シミュレータでの情報入力画面の一例を示す説明図である。
【図４】保証料シミュレータで使用及び算出される情報の一例を示す説明図である。
【図５】保証料シミュレータで使用及び算出される情報の一例を示す説明図である。
【図６】保証料シミュレータで使用及び算出される情報の一例を示す説明図である。
【図７】保証料シミュレータで使用及び算出される情報の一例を示す説明図である。
【図８】保証料シミュレータで使用及び算出される情報の一例を示す説明図である。
【図９】経営シミュレータのハード構成を示す説明図である。
【図１０】経営シミュレータで使用される情報の一例を示す説明図である。
【図１１】経営シミュレータでの出力例を示す説明図である。
【図１２】経営シミュレータでの出力例を示す説明図である。
【図１３】経営シミュレータでの出力例を示す説明図である。
【図１４】経営シミュレータでの出力例を示す説明図である。
【図１５】経営シミュレータでの出力例を示す説明図である。
【図１６】経営シミュレータでの出力例を示す説明図である。
【図１７】保証料シミュレータ及び経営シミュレータの関連を示す流れ図である。
【図１８】図１７の一部の流れを示す流れ図である。
【図１９】保証料シミュレータでのプログラムの処理手順を示す流れ図である。
【図２０】経営シミュレータでのプログラムの処理手順を示す流れ図である。
【符号の説明】
１０ 第１のコンピュータ装置（保証料シミュレータ）
２０ 第２のコンピュータ装置（経営シミュレータ）
１１、２１ 入力部
１２、２２ 記憶部
１３、２３ 制御部
１４、２４ 出力部
１５、２５ 送受部[0001]
BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION
The present invention relates to a residential non-recourse loan guarantee system, a residential non-recourse loan guarantee method, a residential non-recourse loan guarantee business support device, and a residential non-recourse loan guarantee business support program. To a residential non-recourse loan guarantee system, a residential non-recourse loan guarantee method, a residential non-recourse loan guarantee business support device, and a residential non-recourse loan guarantee business support program.
[0002]
[Prior art]
When borrowing a mortgage from a bank, there are many cases where a loan guarantee insurance is taken without a guarantor. Loan-guaranteed insurance is a system that guarantees the amount that cannot be repaid if a fixed amount of insurance premium is paid at the time of loan application and it becomes impossible to repay.
However, because this loan guarantee insurance is expensive, it was rarely used.
[0003]
[Problems to be solved by the invention]
During the bubble period, the value of collateral continued to rise, so even if repayment failure occurred, the repayable portion could be sufficiently covered with collateral. However, due to the continued decline in asset value due to the bursting of the bubble, there are frequent cases in which losses due to sales occur when repayment accidents occur and collateral cannot cover the shortfall. In that case, repayment to loan users is strictly required.
[0004]
The loan user pays a guarantee fee to the guarantee company at the time of the contract, but the guarantee fee guarantees the full payment to the lender's financial institution, and the borrower guarantees the guarantee fee. In spite of paying, it is not actually a guarantee for the borrower.
[0005]
As a conventional technology, there is a new financial activation system in which when a borrower defaults (default), the borrower's lack of collateral power is compensated with a guarantee obligation by a third party investment, and the debt is not pursued. It has been proposed (see, for example, Patent Document 1).
[0006]
[Patent Document 1]
JP 2000-148875 A (second page)
[0007]
As mentioned above, regarding corporate loans, loan systems from the standpoint of borrowers have been proposed. However, with respect to mortgages, despite the fact that the lender and borrower are on equal terms, the borrower has been forced to have an unfair disadvantage, and the loan is based on a borrower-oriented and customer-oriented position. There was no system.
[0008]
In addition, guarantee fees for conventional mortgages are set according to the borrowing amount even if the durability conditions, location conditions, and payment conditions (rate, down payment ratio, etc.) of the house to be purchased are different. Even if they were different, they paid the same amount.
[0009]
For this reason, for example, when a house whose age is considerably long is purchased, the guarantee fee is also low because the price of the house is low. However, a house whose age has passed is generally depreciated quickly, so it would not be profitable unless the guarantee rate is high.
[0010]
For poorly located houses, the price at the time of purchase is low, so the guarantee fee is low. However, poorly located houses generally require years of resale, so they are generally guaranteed. If the rate is not high, it will not be profitable.
[0011]
In this way, the conventional setting of guarantee fees is not appropriate to the actual situation, and therefore, the burden on the guarantor side in the event of default is large.
[0012]
An object of the present invention is to provide a housing-type non-recourse loan guarantee system and a housing-type non-recourse that reduce the burden on the borrower and does not cause any disadvantage to the lender when the borrower falls into default. It is to provide a loan guarantee method.
Another object of the present invention is to provide a housing-type non-recourse loan guarantee business support device and a housing-type non-recourse loan guarantee business support program for realizing the above-mentioned home-type non-recourse loan guarantee system and housing-type non-recourse loan guarantee method. Is to provide.
[0013]
[Means for Solving the Problems]
According to the residential type non-recourse loan guarantee system according to claim 1 of the present invention, the above-mentioned problem is a residential type non-recourse loan guarantee system that realizes a non-recourse loan related to a home loan. Calculating the asset balance of the asset purchased by the user from the seller and the debt balance of the loan received by the user from the loaner, and when the user receives the loan based on the asset balance and the debt balance A guarantee fee simulator for calculating a guarantee fee amount to be paid to the guarantor, and in the future, when the default of the loan occurs and there is a shortage amount that cannot cover the debt balance with the asset balance, the total amount of the shortage amount When the guarantor pays, the asset balance, debt balance and guarantee calculated by the guarantee fee simulator A management simulator for predicting the balance of the guarantor based on the amount, and the balance of the guarantor is a fixed amount of the shortage amount and the cost of the guarantor from at least the total amount of the guarantee fee for a certain period This is resolved by showing the difference as a subtraction of the total period.
[0014]
The housing-type non-recourse loan guarantee system of the present invention is for realizing a non-recourse loan that does not collect a shortage that cannot be covered by the recovered amount when a borrower defaults on a mortgage. The residential non-recourse loan guarantee system of the present invention includes a guarantee fee simulator for calculating the optimum guarantee fee and a management simulator for showing the balance of the guarantor, so that the guarantor can continue sound management. This makes it possible to carry out non-recourse loans continuously.
[0015]
In the residential non-recourse loan guarantee system of the present invention, the asset balance includes one or a combination of a social situation, a location indicating the quality of the asset, a location condition, a building age, and a building style. Calculated to reflect conditions. As described above, the present invention is configured to calculate the asset balance in consideration of asset saleability and profitability, and is a system that supports due diligence.
[0016]
Specifically, the guarantee fee amount is calculated based on the asset balance, the debt balance, the down payment rate at the time of financing, and the accident occurrence rate of default.
[0017]
In the management simulator, in order to display the balance of the guarantor, at least one of a cash flow list, an operating revenue list, a guaranteed amount list, a number of handled properties list, a balance sheet, and a profit and loss statement is created.
[0018]
The residential type non-recourse loan guarantee method of the present invention is a residential type non-recourse loan guarantee method that realizes a non-recourse loan related to a mortgage, and includes a property that a user purchases from a seller at the time of financing and a predetermined point in the future. Calculating the asset balance, calculating the loan balance of the loan received from the lender by the user at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future, and at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future from the asset balance and the debt balance A step of calculating a guarantee amount, and a step of calculating a guarantee fee amount to be paid to the guarantor when the user receives the loan, based on the guarantee amount, a down payment rate at the time of loan, and an accident occurrence rate of default Calculating a total amount of the guarantee fee collected in a certain period, and a shortage amount that cannot cover the debt balance with the asset balance in the certain period The step of calculating the estimated amount of accrual, the step of calculating the estimated amount of accrued expenses on the guarantor side during a certain period, and the sum of the estimated accrued amount of expenses and the estimated accrued amount of expenses during the certain period And a step of comparing the value with the total amount of the guarantee fee for a certain period.
[0019]
The asset balance includes an asset price fluctuation rate indicating a condition including any one or a combination of a social situation and a location indicating the quality of the asset, a location condition, a building age, and a building style, and an asset at the time of acquisition. Calculated from the price.
[0020]
In addition, in the step of calculating the guarantee amount at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future from the asset balance and the debt balance, the asset depreciation rate at the time of actual sale and the commission rate for the sale are included in the asset balance. The reflected collection amount is calculated, and the guarantee amount at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future is calculated from the collection amount and the debt balance.
[0021]
Further, in the step of calculating a guarantee amount at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future from the asset balance and the debt balance, a real debt balance is calculated by reflecting the amount of the down payment in the debt balance.
[0022]
Further, in the step of calculating a guarantee fee to be paid to the guarantor when the user receives the loan based on the guarantee amount and the default rate of accident occurrence, the interest rate when the guarantee fee is used is calculated. The amount of the guarantee fee is calculated by reflecting it.
[0023]
The housing-type non-recourse loan guarantee business support device of the present invention is a housing-type non-recourse loan guarantee business support device that realizes a non-recourse loan related to a housing loan. The asset balance of the purchased asset and the debt balance of the loan received by the user from the lender are calculated, and the guarantee amount at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future is calculated from the asset balance and the debt balance. A first computing device that calculates a guarantee fee to be paid to the guarantor when the user receives the loan based on the above, and a default on the loan occurs in the future, and the asset balance cannot cover the debt balance In the case where a shortage occurs, the first computer in the case where the guarantor has paid for the full amount of the shortage And a second computer device that predicts the balance of the guarantor based on the amount of the guarantee fee calculated in accordance with the estimated amount, the estimated amount of the shortage and the estimated amount of expenses generated on the guarantor side, Yes.
[0024]
The first computer device includes an input unit for inputting an asset price at the time of asset purchase, a total borrowing amount at the time of receiving a loan, an initial amount, a loan period, a condition indicating asset quality, and the input information A storage unit for storing information including a loan interest rate, a rate of change of an asset price, a rate of depreciation when the asset is actually sold, a fee rate related to sales, an investment interest rate, and an accident occurrence rate of default, A control unit that calculates an asset balance, a collection amount at the time of asset sale, a debt balance, a guarantee amount, and a guarantee fee, and an output unit that outputs a processing result in the control unit.
[0025]
The second computer device includes a guarantee fee amount calculated by the first computer, an actual value or a predicted value of information including a fee amount related to a guarantee service, a labor cost, a substitution fee, a selling, general and administrative cost. Of actual or predicted information on expenditures, including loan period allocation rate, loan interest rate, guarantee fee rate, property growth rate, default rate of accident occurrence, substitution repayment recovery rate, guarantee contract churn rate An input unit for inputting the actual value or the predicted value, the actual value or the predicted value of the information related to the capital, and the actual value or the predicted value of the information related to the deposit deposit, and a storage unit for storing the input information Based on the above information, cash flow list, operating revenue list, guaranteed amount list, number of properties handled, balance sheet, income statement, and the processing result in the control unit are output And it includes an output portion, at least.
[0026]
The housing-type non-recourse loan guarantee business support program according to the present invention compares a recovered amount and a debt balance at the time of default on a mortgage, and when the debt balance is larger than the recovered amount, A difference between the recovered amount and the debt balance is calculated as a guarantee amount, and the computer is caused to execute a process of calculating a guarantee fee to be paid by the borrower based on the guarantee amount.
[0027]
More specifically, the residential non-recourse loan guarantee business support program calculates the asset balance of assets purchased by the user from the seller at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future, and at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future. A step of calculating a debt balance of a loan received by a user from a lender, a step of calculating a guarantee amount at the time of financing and a predetermined future time from the asset balance and the debt balance, the guarantee amount, and a loan time And calculating a guarantee fee to be paid to the guarantor when the user receives the loan based on the initial deposit rate and the default rate of occurrence of default.
[0028]
In the step of calculating the asset balance, the asset price at the time of asset purchase, and the location, location condition, building age, building style indicating the social situation and the quality of the asset, or a combination of two or more The asset balance at a predetermined time is calculated from the asset price fluctuation rate indicating the condition including.
[0029]
In addition, the step of calculating a guarantee amount at the time of financing and at a predetermined time point in the future from the asset balance and the debt balance includes a deduction rate at the time of actual sale and a fee rate at the time of sale in the asset balance. The method includes a step of calculating a collection amount by reflecting and a step of calculating a guarantee amount at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future from the collection amount and the debt balance.
[0030]
Furthermore, the step of calculating a guarantee amount at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future from the asset balance and the debt balance includes a step of calculating a real debt balance by reflecting the amount of the down payment in the debt balance.
[0031]
The step of calculating a guarantee fee to be paid to the guarantor when the user receives the loan based on the guarantee amount and the default rate of accident occurrence reflects the investment interest when the guarantee fee is used. And calculating the guarantee fee amount.
[0032]
In addition, the residential non-recourse loan guarantee business support program of the present invention includes the asset balance of the asset purchased by the user from the seller and the debt balance of the loan received by the user from the lender at the time of financing and a predetermined time in the future. Receiving a guarantee amount required as a difference between the asset balance and the debt balance, and accepting data on a guarantee fee to be paid to the guarantor when the user receives the loan based on the guarantee amount, and collecting for a certain period Calculating a total amount of the guaranteed fee, calculating a predicted amount of the shortage that cannot cover the debt balance with the asset balance in a certain period, and cost generated on the guarantor side in the certain period A value obtained by summing the step of calculating the forecasted amount of occurrence and the forecasted amount of shortage and the estimated amount of expenses during the certain period , And a, a step of comparing the total guarantee fee amount for a certain period.
[0033]
DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION
Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. Note that the processing steps, devices, and the like described below do not limit the present invention and can be variously modified within the scope of the gist of the present invention.
[0034]
FIG. 1 to FIG. 20 show an embodiment of the present invention, FIG. 1 is a conceptual diagram showing a non-recourse loan mechanism of the present invention, and FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram showing a hardware configuration of a guarantee fee simulator. 3 is an explanatory view showing an example of an information input screen in the guarantee fee simulator, FIGS. 4 to 8 are explanatory views showing an example of information used and calculated in the guarantee fee simulator, and FIG. 9 is a hardware configuration of the management simulator. FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of information used in the management simulator, FIGS. 11 to 16 are explanatory diagrams showing examples of output in the management simulator, and FIG. 17 shows the relationship between the guarantee fee simulator and the management simulator. FIG. 18 is a flowchart showing a part of the flow of FIG. 17, FIG. 19 is a flowchart showing a program processing procedure in the guarantee fee simulator, and FIG. 20 is a flowchart in the management simulator. Is a flow diagram illustrating the grams of procedure.
[0035]
The residential non-recourse loan guarantee system of the present invention relates to a mortgage loan, and in particular, in the event of default (default) on the borrower side, a non-recourse loan that does not cover the debt balance that cannot be covered by the sale of collateral. It is something to execute.
[0036]
Participants in the residential non-recourse loan guarantee system are businesses, lenders, product providers, and customers. The business is a guarantee company, the lender is a bank or other financial institution, the product provider is a house maker or land seller, and the customer is a user who purchases land or housing and uses the loan.
[0037]
FIG. 1 is a conceptual diagram for explaining the residential non-recourse loan guarantee system of this example. For example, a user receives a loan of 10 million yen from a bank or other financial institution, and purchases a 10 million yen house from a housing manufacturer. The user pays a guarantee fee of 150,000 yen and receives a guarantee from the guarantee company.
[0038]
Suppose that the user defaults when 3 million yen is repaid. At this time, the debt balance is 7 million yen, and even if the house can be sold for 5 million yen, a shortage of 2 million yen will occur.
[0039]
The residential non-recourse loan guarantee system of this example employs a non-recourse loan that does not require the borrower for the shortage of 2 million yen.
[0040]
The residential non-recourse loan guarantee system of this example is a guarantee fee simulator that sets an appropriate guarantee fee according to the asset situation so that the guarantee company will not fail even if the non-recourse loan as described above is adopted And a management simulator for calculating the soundness of the management state of the guarantee company.
[0041]
I. Guarantee fee simulator
The guarantee fee simulator sets an appropriate guarantee fee amount for a predetermined property. The guarantee fee simulator of this example can predict the guarantee fee that can be covered by the collateral and the guarantee fee, assuming the accident rate and the recovery amount in consideration of the amount of the down payment, loan period, social situation, and asset status. It is configured to be able to.
[0042]
The guarantee fee simulator includes a first computer device 10, and includes an input unit 11 for inputting loan information, a storage unit 12 for storing loan information, a control unit 13 for performing arithmetic processing based on loan information, and a control unit. And an output unit 14 for outputting a calculation result obtained at 13.
[0043]
The input unit 11 includes a keyboard, a mouse, a scanner, and the like, and inputs a total asset at the time of purchase, a loan period, an initial borrowing amount, an initial deposit amount, and asset conditions regarding the loan received by the borrower.
[0044]
The input unit 11 may be the one provided in the first computer device 10, but a communication line that inputs information from an input unit provided in another computer device and is connected to the transmission / reception unit 15. It is good also as a structure which transmits to the 1st computer apparatus 10 via a network. At this time, the Internet, telephone line, ISDN line, dedicated line, radio, etc. are used as the communication line network.
[0045]
FIG. 3 shows a specific example of the input screen in the guarantee fee simulator. On the input screen, numbers are entered for the total assets at the time of purchase, the loan period, the initial borrowing amount, the age of the building, and the amount of the down payment. As for the location of the land, one is selected from a plurality of candidates for prefectures and municipalities.
[0046]
In addition, about the place of a land, it is good also as a structure which can input to a chome and an address. Moreover, it is good also as a structure by which a postal code is input and an address is specified and displayed.
[0047]
As for the surrounding conditions, information on transportation facilities such as the distance from the nearest station, the distance from the main road, etc. is entered, and items for various facilities are shown. Of these, there are facilities around the property. Selected. Furthermore, the building style that corresponds to the purchased building is selected.
[0048]
The input information is stored in the storage unit 12. The storage unit 12 includes an HDD, a ROM, and a RAM, and input information is stored in the HDD. The ROM also stores various basic programs for hardware control of the computer system. The RAM is configured to function as a work area for computer control.
[0049]
4 to 8 show examples of information used and calculated by the guarantee fee simulator. These pieces of information are stored in the storage unit 12.
[0050]
As information used in the guarantee fee simulator, in addition to input information, as shown in FIG. 4, there is data indicating a loan interest rate, an asset change rate, an actual sale rate, a sale rate, an investment rate, and an accident rate. Asset volatility indicates what the value of the asset will be in the future. In this example, the fluctuation rate is set as a land price drop rate and a building price drop rate.
[0051]
The rate of change of assets is set according to the social situation, the location and convenience of the land, the age of the building, the style of the building (a wooden house, a reinforced house, a steel frame house), and the like. The variation rate may be set as a constant numerical value or may be set as a vector.
[0052]
The actual sale rate indicates how much can be collected with respect to the asset balance when the house is sold, and is set to 0.9 in this example.
[0053]
The sale rate reflects the expenses at the time of sale in the collected amount when the house is sold, and is set to 0.7 in this example.
That is, in the numerical value setting in this example, the numerical value obtained by dividing the asset balance by the recovery amount, that is, the recovery rate is set to 0.63.
[0054]
The accident rate is the accident rate at which default occurs, and is set based on the experience rate. The accident rate is set to a low value of 0.10% in the first year, and relatively high at 0.4% and 0.3% in the second and third years, respectively. This indicates that there is a high probability of default in the second and third years. The accident rate after the fifth year is set to 0.20%.
[0055]
As shown in FIG. 4, the accident rate may be set differently depending on the amount of the down payment and the loan period. When the accident rate is set differently depending on the amount of the down payment, the smaller the amount of the down payment, the higher the accident rate is set. This is because the smaller the amount of the down payment, the more the repayment amount becomes burdensome for the borrower. Because.
[0056]
Moreover, since the change rate and the accident rate change depending on the social situation, it is preferable to provide a plurality of patterns as shown in FIG. In FIG. 4, two patterns of A pattern and B pattern are shown.
[0057]
The guarantee fee simulator performs arithmetic processing for calculating an optimum guarantee fee based on the above information. Arithmetic processing is performed in the control unit 13 according to a program.
[0058]
In the calculation process, (1) processing to calculate the expected recovery amount at the time of asset sales, (2) processing to calculate the debt balance at the time of asset sales, (3) guarantee by comparing the recovery amount at the time of asset sales and the debt balance A process for calculating the amount and (4) a process for calculating the guarantee fee to be paid by the borrower are performed.
[0059]
Hereinafter, asset balance “AV”, land price “GV”, building price “CV”, actual sale price “SV”, recovery amount “RV”, land price fluctuation rate “GR”, building price fluctuation rate “CR”, actual price Selling rate “PR”, selling rate “SR”, accident rate “DR”, lending period (year) “m”, lending year “i”, lending rate “r”, investment rate “pr”, down payment rate “yy” Each calculation process will be described as a debt balance “LB”, a guarantee amount “LG”, an annual repayment amount of principal and interest “P”, and a guarantee fee amount “IP”.
[0060]
(1) Recovery amount at the time of asset sale “RV _i To calculate "
FIG. 5 shows an example in which the asset balance and the recovery amount are simulated in units of 1,000,000 yen.
[0061]
Recovery amount at the time of asset sale “RV _i In order to calculate the asset balance “AV” _i Is required. If the asset consists of land and buildings, the asset balance “GV” for each land and building _i "," CV _i Is obtained and these values are added together.
[0062]
If the asset change rate (land price change rate “GR”, building price change rate “CR”) is constant, land balance “GV” _i ", Building balance" CV _i ", Asset balance" AV _i Is obtained by the following equation.
[Expression 1]

[0063]
If the rate of change is given by vector (j), the asset balance “AV” _i Is obtained by the following equation.
[Expression 2]

[0064]
According to Equation 1 or Equation 2 above, the asset balance “AV _i ”Is calculated, the amount collected at the time of asset sale“ RV ” _i Can be calculated.
[Equation 3]

[0065]
(2) Debt balance at the time of asset sale “LB” _i To calculate "
FIG. 6 shows an example in which the debt balance is simulated in units of 1000 thousand yen for the debt amount.
[0066]
Debt balance at the time of asset sale “LB _i ”Is calculated by first calculating the annual payment of principal and interest equal to“ P ” _m Is required.
Lending rate r for lending period m years _m In the case of, the annual payment of principal and interest equal repayment amount “P _m "(Lending principal per yen) is calculated by the following formula.
[0067]
[Expression 4]

[0068]
According to Equation 4 above, the annual repayment amount of principal and interest for the loan period m years is “P _m Is required.
Then, this annual payment of principal and interest equal repayment amount “P _m Using the following formula, the debt balance of each year “LB” _{m, i} Is calculated.
[0069]
[Equation 5]

[0070]
That is, the debt balance “LB” _{m, i + 1} ”Is the debt balance“ LB ” _{m, i} Repayment amount "P" _m ”And interest“ LB ” _{m, i} Xr _m "Is added.
[0071]
(3) Recovery amount at the time of asset sale “RV _i "And debt balance" LB " _{m, i} ”To calculate the guaranteed amount“ LG ”
FIG. 6 shows an example in which a guarantee amount is simulated for each down payment rate in units of 1,000 thousand yen for the debt amount.
[0072]
Whether or not the guarantee is made depends on the amount collected “RV _i "And debt balance" LB " _{m, i} ”And the recovery amount“ RV _i "Debt balance" LB " _{m, i} It is determined to be guaranteed if less than. The guarantee amount “LG” at that time is the recovered amount “RV” _i "And debt balance" LB " _{m, i} "And the difference.
[0073]
That is, a borrower with a larger difference between the asset balance “AV” and the debt balance “LB” has a larger guaranteed amount. In the simulator of this example, since the fluctuation rate is taken into account in the asset balance “AV” according to the social situation and the asset situation, the degree of the asset decline can be appropriately predicted. Therefore, for example, even if the price at the time of purchase is the same, a different guarantee amount is predicted depending on the property status. For this reason, it is possible to calculate a guarantee amount corresponding to due diligence.
[0074]
The guaranteed amount “LG” is obtained from the following equation.
[Formula 6]

[0075]
Thus, the guaranteed amount is a different numerical value depending on the initial amount. In other words, the more down payments are made at first, the smaller the guaranteed amount.
[0076]
(4) Processing to calculate the amount of guarantee payment that the borrower should pay
FIG. 7 shows an example of simulating a guarantee amount in the case of a down payment rate of 0% among the guarantee amounts calculated in FIG.
[0077]
The amount of guarantee fee that the borrower should pay in each year "IP _i "Is the guarantee amount paid in the event of default each year" LG _i "And accident rate" DR " _i ”Is calculated.
[0078]
Accident rate "DR _i "" Is determined from the amount of the down payment and the loan period, and each borrower has a different accident rate. For this reason, the difference between the asset balance and the debt balance is large, and the borrower with a higher accident rate pays a higher guarantee fee.
[0079]
[Expression 7]

[0080]
In this example, assuming that the guarantee fee collected from the borrower is operated, the investment interest rate is also calculated and calculated as a net guarantee fee. If the interest rate varies depending on the investment period, calculation is performed at a different interest rate for each investment period.
[0081]
When the guarantee fee is used, the guarantee fee to be paid by the borrower is reduced by the amount for the operation.
The present price ratio when the asset is operated, that is, the ratio of the guarantee fee to be paid by the borrower in consideration of the investment, is obtained by the following formula.
[Equation 8]

[0082]
The net guarantee fee to be paid by the borrower in each fiscal year when the investment is taken into account is calculated by the following formula.
[Equation 9]

[0083]
Since the guarantee fee is paid in a lump when the loan is received, the net guarantee fee for each year is accumulated and calculated as a one-time net guarantee fee.
[Expression 10]

[Expression 11]

[0084]
In the example of FIG. 7, the one-time net guarantee fee is 12,389.4 yen.
In this way, the guarantee amount in the event of default is predicted, and an appropriate guarantee fee is calculated based on the predicted guarantee amount.
In addition, FIG. 8 shows the guarantee fee per thousand yen according to the down payment rate for loans with a loan period of 20 years. Thus, the higher the down payment rate, the smaller the guarantee fee that the borrower should pay.
[0085]
The calculation result in the first computer device 10 is output to the output unit 14. The output unit 14 is, for example, a monitor of a computer device, a printer, or a speaker. Note that the configuration may be such that the data is output to the outside via a communication line network.
[0086]
II. Management simulator
The management simulator simulates whether or not the guarantee company can be soundly managed. The management simulator can predict the management situation in the future. When the actual value is input, it is possible to indicate the result of the guarantee company operating for a predetermined period.
[0087]
As shown in FIG. 9, the management simulator includes a second computer device 20, and includes an input unit 21 for inputting management information, a storage unit 22 for storing management information, a control unit 23 for performing arithmetic processing, and a control. And an output unit 24 that outputs a calculation result in the unit 23. Note that the description of the same configuration as the first computer apparatus 10 in the second computer 20 is omitted.
[0088]
In this example, the guarantee fee simulator is provided in the first computer device 10 and the management simulator is provided in the second computer device 20, but the guarantee fee simulator and the management simulator are the same computer. Of course, it may be provided in the apparatus.
[0089]
The first computer 10 or the second computer 20 may be configured to use a mobile terminal in addition to a desktop personal computer. Examples of the mobile terminal include a notebook personal computer, an electronic notebook type portable information tool, a portable game machine, a cellular phone, and a portable terminal dedicated to the system of this example.
[0090]
Information necessary for the simulation is input from the input unit 21. The information includes information directly related to the guarantee business and information related to company operation. As information, actual values are input up to the current information, and predicted values are input for future information.
[0091]
As information directly generated from the guarantee business, the number of properties to be handled by the guarantee company and the fee amount are entered. In addition, the setting values for the loan period, loan interest rate, guarantee fee rate, handling property growth rate, guaranteed amount per case, accident rate, recovery rate for substitution, and contract non-cancellation rate are entered.
[0092]
As an example of the simulation, FIG. 10 shows a case of handling 2000 homes and 100 profitable properties such as apartments in the first year. A general period is set as the lending period. For example, four patterns of 20 years, 25 years, 30 years, and 35 years are set.
[0093]
The allocation rate for the loan period of the property is set based on past general figures. For example, the allocation rate is 5% for the property with a lending period of 20 years, 70% for the property with a lending period of 25 years, 20% of the property with a lending period of 30 years, and the entire property with a lending period of 35 years Of 5%.
[0094]
The loan interest rate is set to 3% in this example. The guarantee fee rate is the ratio of the guarantee fee to the guarantee amount, and a value is set for each residential property and profitable property for each loan period.
[0095]
In this example, for residential properties, the guarantee fee rate is 1.48% for a loan period of 20 years, the guarantee fee rate is 1.73% for 25 years, the guarantee fee rate is 1.91% for 30 years, and 35 years In this case, the guarantee fee rate is set to 2.07%.
[0096]
For profitable properties, the guarantee fee rate is 1.97% for a loan period of 20 years, the guarantee fee rate is 2.25% for 25 years, the guarantee fee rate is 2.51% for 30 years, and for 35 years. The guarantee fee rate is set to 2.73%.
[0097]
The fee is the fee received from the borrower when the guarantee company performs the guarantee business, and is set at 30,000 yen for residential properties and 70,000 yen for profitable properties.
[0098]
As for the growth rate of the property, in this example, a large number is set because the growth in the number of properties is large and the parameter is small in the first one to two years, and thereafter a stable number is input.
[0099]
In this example, the guaranteed amount per case is set at 20 million yen per residential property and 100 million yen per property.
[0100]
The accident rate is the accident rate at which default occurs, and is set based on the experience rate. The accident rate is set to a low value of 0.10% in the first year, and relatively high at 0.4% and 0.3% in the second and third years, respectively. This indicates that there is a high probability of default in the second and third years. The accident rate after the fifth year is set to 0.20%. The accident rate may be set differently depending on the amount of the down payment.
[0101]
The substitution payment collection rate is a numerical value indicating how much can be collected when substitution substitution is performed, and is set to 75% in this example.
The non-cancellation rate is set to 100% in this example, assuming that there is no cancellation.
[0102]
In order to perform a more realistic simulation, it is preferable that the above allocation rate, guarantee fee rate, fee, number of cases growth rate, accident rate, proxy payment recovery rate are set as vector values instead of constant values. .
[0103]
Among the management information, information on company management includes capital, cash deposits at the time of company establishment, income taxes payable, salary, SG & A, office rent, office startup costs, asset management, etc. There are external revenues. For these pieces of information, predicted values or actual values are input.
[0104]
The salary, SG & A expenses, office rents, and profits from asset management are set so that the vector value is set to change every year, and the predicted value is set every year. Is done.
[0105]
The second computer 20 performs arithmetic processing based on the above information, and as shown in FIGS. 11 to 16, the cash flow list, the operating revenue list, the guaranteed amount list, the number of properties handled, the balance sheet, the profit and loss, Output the calculation form.
[0106]
As shown in FIG. 11, in the cash flow list, the cash flow can be seen and the financial soundness can be grasped. In the cash flow list, for each fiscal year, the amount carried over the previous year, the ordinary income and current expenditure as the current account, and the financial income and expenditure as the financial account are displayed.
[0107]
Ordinary income items include guarantee fees for residential properties and profitable properties, guarantee fees for residential properties and profitable properties, cancellation fees for residential properties and profitable properties, collection of substitution fees, interest income and miscellaneous income, etc. There is.
[0108]
Guarantee fee income is calculated from the number of properties, the guarantee amount per property, and the guarantee fee rate. Since the guarantee fee rate differs for each property classified according to the loan period, it is calculated by reflecting the number of properties by loan period and the guarantee fee rate.
[0109]
The cancellation fee is not generated since it is set as a non-cancellation rate of 100% in this example. The proxy payment cost recovery amount is calculated by multiplying the predicted proxy payment cost by the proxy payment recovery rate.
Interest income is calculated as operating revenue guarantee fees.
[0110]
Information on salary, incidental personnel expenses, rent, office start-up expenses, cancellation refund guarantee charges, substitution repayment expenses, SG & A expenses, interest expenses, other expenses, income taxes, etc. are entered as items of ordinary expenses .
[0111]
The financial income items include capital and borrowings, and the financial expenditure items include information on loan repayment, deposit deposits, fixed asset purchases, and the like.
Then, the total of the ordinary income total is subtracted from the previous year's carry-over amount, and the ordinary expenditure total is subtracted to be the next year's carry-over amount.
[0112]
FIG. 12 shows a list of operating revenues. From the list of operating revenues, it is possible to calculate the average guarantee fee rate for residential properties, the average guarantee fee rate for revenue properties, and the combined average guarantee fee rate, and it is possible to verify whether there is appropriate guarantee fee income.
[0113]
In the list of operating revenues, for each fiscal year, the number of housing properties and earning properties, the guarantee fee for each housing property and earning property, the guarantee fee received for each housing property and earning property, and the fee for each housing property and earning property , Accumulated guarantee fee, accumulated commission fee, number of cancellations for each residential property and revenue property, termination fee for each residential property and revenue property, and refund guarantee fee for each residential property and revenue property.
[0114]
FIG. 13 shows a list of guaranteed amounts. In the guarantee amount list, the transition of the guarantee amount can be grasped. In the guarantee amount list, the annual guarantee amount is shown for each residential property and profitable property for each fiscal year by loan period.
[0115]
FIG. 14 shows a list of handling properties. In the guarantee amount list, it is possible to grasp the transition of the number of properties handled. In the list of number of properties handled, the number of properties handled for each housing period and each property for sale is displayed for each fiscal year.
[0116]
Further, in the management simulator of this example, a balance sheet and a profit and loss statement are displayed. FIG. 15 shows a balance sheet. With the balance sheet, it is possible to grasp the financial details of the guarantor and the static state of profit or loss on a specific date.
[0117]
The assets section of the balance sheet includes cash deposits, guarantee deposits, recourse rights, etc.
Liabilities and capital include housing property unpaid guarantee fees, income property unpaid guarantee fees, income taxes payable, capital, and unappropriated retained earnings.
[0118]
FIG. 16 shows the income statement. From the profit and loss statement, it is possible to grasp the profit or loss that occurred in one business period by the business activities of the guarantee company, and to know the process that led to the profit or loss.
[0119]
In the income statement, revenue guarantee fees, guarantee fees, and cancellation fees are displayed as operating revenues. Salaries, SG & A expenses, rents, office start-up costs, loss on substitution payments, refunds as operating and administrative expenses Guarantee fees and other costs are displayed.
[0120]
Then, operating profit / loss obtained from the difference between operating revenue and operating / administrative expenses, operating profit / loss, non-operating income, stock issuance expenses, startup expenses, ordinary profit / loss adjusted for others, and tax profit calculated by subtracting corporate tax etc. from ordinary profit / loss Subsequent profit and loss are displayed. In addition, the cumulative recurring profit and loss and the cumulative profit and loss after tax are shown.
[0121]
Using the guarantee fee simulator and management simulator configured as described above, in order to realize a non-recourse loan for mortgages, calculate the optimum guarantee fee and perform a simulation for the guarantee company to continue sound management It becomes possible.
[0122]
FIG. 17 is a flowchart showing the relationship between the guarantee fee simulator and the management simulator in the residential non-recourse loan guarantee system of this example.
[0123]
First, as the first step S1, if there is a change in the accident rate, loan interest rate, land price drop rate, etc., in step S2, use the guarantee fee simulator to determine how much the guarantee fee and the guarantee fee rate will vary. Check.
[0124]
When the guarantee fee and the guarantee fee rate after the condition change are obtained by the guarantee fee simulator, a simulation by the management simulator is performed based on the calculated guarantee fee and the changed condition in step S3.
[0125]
The change in accident rate relates to the guarantee fee paid by the borrower. Also, the change in the loan interest rate is related to the repayment amount, and as a result, the debt balance. Also, the land price drop rate is related to the asset balance, and as a result, the recovery amount.
[0126]
For this reason, when the accident rate is changed, it is related to the accident rate and the guarantee fee rate among the data used in the management simulator shown in FIG. In addition, the change in the loan interest rate and the change in the land price drop rate are related to the guarantee amount in the management simulator.
[0127]
Therefore, based on the change of the conditions, the accident rate and the guarantee fee rate in the management simulator or the guarantee amount per case are changed and the simulation is performed. Then, based on the cash flow, balance sheet, and profit and loss statement obtained as a result of the simulation, it is determined whether or not sound management can be continued when there is a change in conditions.
[0128]
Then, when it is determined that sound management cannot be continued as it is when there is a change in conditions, it is examined how much the income can be increased or how much the expenditure can be reduced.
In this way, the optimum guarantee fee (business guarantee fee) is finally determined in step S4. The business guarantee fee includes a net guarantee fee and a guarantee fee for administrative expenses.
[0129]
FIG. 18 shows the management simulation flow in step S3 in the block diagram of FIG. 17 in more detail.
First, in step S11, change conditions such as an accident rate, a loan interest rate, and a land price drop rate are input. Then, calculation processing is performed in step S12, and income guarantee fee calculation and balance calculation are performed.
[0130]
In step S13, the calculation result is provisionally output. A determination is made on the provisionally output material, and whether or not to approve the result is input in step S14. If approved (step S14; Yes), the final result is output in step S15, the process is terminated, and a final management decision is made. If it is not approved in step S14 (step S14; No), the guarantee fee rate, the fee, the labor cost, etc. are changed in step S16, and the processes in steps S11 to S14 are repeated.
[0131]
Here, the guarantee fee simulator and each program processing performed in the management simulator will be described.
[0132]
First, the guarantee fee simulation program will be described. The guarantee fee simulation program sets an appropriate guarantee fee amount for a predetermined property.
[0133]
In step S21, information necessary for the simulation is input. As the information, for example, according to the form shown in FIG. 2, the total amount of assets at the time of purchase, the loan period, the initial borrowing amount, the amount of down payment, and the asset conditions are input.
[0134]
In step S22, the loan interest rate, the fluctuation rate corresponding to the property to be simulated, the actual sale rate, the sale rate, the investment rate, and the accident rate are read from the storage unit. These data may have a configuration in which predetermined numerical values are automatically read, or may be appropriately selected from those presented as a list. The accident rate is selected according to the down payment ratio and loan period.
[0135]
When information necessary for the calculation is input and read out in steps S21 and S22, the calculation process is performed in steps S23 to S30.
In step S23, the asset balance “AV for each year in the loan period” _i Is calculated. Asset balance “AV _i "Is the land price at the time of purchase" GV ₀ ", Building price" CV ₀ ”And the fluctuation rates“ GR ”and“ CR ”.
[0136]
In step S24, the collection amount “RV” for each year. _i Is calculated. The recovery amount “RV” is the asset balance “AV” for each year. _i ”, Actual sales rate“ PR ”, and sales rate“ SR ”.
In step S25, the debt balance “LB” for each year in the loan period. _{m, i + 1} Is calculated. Debt balance "LB _{m, i + 1} ”Is the annual repayment of principal and interest,“ P ” _m ”And the previous year's debt balance“ LB ” _{m, i} ”And interest.
[0137]
In step S26, the collected amount “RV” _i ”And the debt balance“ LB ” _{m, i} ”And the recovery amount“ RV _i "Debt balance" LB " _{m, i} "Is exceeded or not. At this time, if there is a down payment, the debt balance “LB” _{m, i} The initial deposit rate “yy” is reflected in “” and the comparison is performed. Debt balance “LB” _{m, i} When the initial deposit rate “yy” is reflected in “”, the following formula is used.
[Expression 12]

[0138]
If the debt balance exceeds the recovered amount (step S26; Yes), in step S27 the guarantee amount “LG for each year in the loan period” _{m, yy, i} Is calculated. If the debt balance does not exceed the recovered amount (step S26; No), the process is terminated.
[0139]
The guarantee fee is determined in steps S28 to S30. First, in step S8, the guarantee fee to be paid by the borrower in each year “IP _i Is calculated. Guarantee fee "IP _i "Is the guarantee amount paid in the event of default each year" LG _i "And accident rate" DR " _i ”Is calculated.
[0140]
Further, in step S29, when the guarantee fee is taken into consideration, the guarantee fee amount to be paid by the borrower in each fiscal year is calculated, and the temporary payment fee to be paid in a lump sum when the loan is received in step S30 is calculated. Is done.
[0141]
Next, a management simulation program will be described.
In step S41, it is confirmed whether or not there is a change in setting values relating to a preset loan interest rate, accident rate, land price drop rate, and the like. If there is a change in the set value, a change process is performed in step S42.
[0142]
In step S43, as information necessary for the simulation, the asset balance (collected amount) calculated by the guarantee fee simulator, the debt balance, the guarantee amount, the data relating to the guarantee fee amount, the number of properties, and the fee amount are input. In addition, information generated in operating the company includes capital, cash deposits at the time of company establishment, income taxes payable, salary, SG & A, office rent, office startup costs, asset management, etc. Information is entered.
[0143]
Note that the number of properties, fees, salaries, SG & A expenses, office rents, and revenues from asset management are assumed to change from year to year, and predicted values are calculated every year.
[0144]
In step S43, data such as a loan period distribution rate, a loan interest rate, a guarantee fee rate, a property number growth rate, an accident rate, a substitute repayment recovery rate, and a non-cancellation rate are further read as information necessary for the simulation. These data may have a configuration in which predetermined numerical values are automatically read, or may be appropriately selected from those presented as a list.
[0145]
In step S44, a loan period is set. In this example, the property with a loan period of 20 years is 5% of the total, the property with a loan period of 25 years is 70% of the total, the property with a loan period of 30 years is 20% of the total, and the loan period is 35 years Is set as 5% of the total.
[0146]
In step S45, arithmetic processing is performed.
Through the calculation process, at least one of a cash flow list, an operating revenue list, a guarantee amount list, a handling property number list, a balance sheet, and an income statement is created.
[0147]
To create a cash flow list, the current account balance, the current account balance, the financial account, and the carry-over amount for the following year are calculated.
[0148]
In addition, in order to create a list of operating revenues, the total guarantee fee and the total received fee are calculated. Further, in order to create a guarantee amount list, a guarantee amount by lending period and a total guarantee amount are calculated. Furthermore, in order to create a handling number list, a predicted value of the handling number is calculated.
[0149]
To create the balance sheet, total assets, unearned guarantee fees, unappropriated retained earnings, and total debt capital are calculated.
In addition, operating income, operating expenses, operating profit, non-operating expenses, recurring profit / loss, post-tax profit / loss, recurring profit / loss, and accumulated post-tax profit / loss are calculated to prepare the income statement.
[0150]
In step S46, result information such as a cash flow list, an operating revenue list, a guaranteed amount list, a number of handled properties list, a balance sheet, and a profit and loss statement is output.
[0151]
Here, a determination is made regarding the output result, and whether or not to approve the result is input in step S47. If approved (step S47; Yes), the final result is output in step S48, the process is terminated, and a final management decision is made.
[0152]
If it is not approved in step S47 (step S47; No), in step S49, the guarantee fee rate is increased, or a case that does not satisfy a certain condition is not guaranteed. Changes are made to the certain conditions. And the process of step S41-step S47 is repeated. In addition, as a fixed condition, specifically, it is set that the initial amount is a specific ratio of the debt amount, for example, 10 to 30%.
[0153]
Technical ideas other than the claims that can be grasped from the above embodiment will be described below.
(1) The residential non-recourse loan guarantee system according to claim 1, wherein the accident rate is set by reflecting the amount of down payment and the loan period.
(2) The cash flow list includes ordinary income including one or both of the guarantee fee and the fee,
One or a combination of two or more of salary, incidental personnel expenses, office rent, office start-up expenses, cancellation refund guarantee fee, proxy payment expenses, SG & A expenses, interest expense, business tax, corporate tax payment, etc. Including current spending,
Financial income, including capital and / or borrowings,
5. The residential type non-recourse loan guarantee system according to claim 4, comprising: financial expenditure including one or a combination of one or more of loan repayment, guarantee payment, and fixed asset purchase.
(3) The residential non-recourse loan guarantee system according to claim 4, wherein in the list of operating revenues, either or both of the guarantee fee and the guarantee fee are indicated as operating revenues.
(4) The residential non-recourse loan guarantee system according to claim 4, wherein the guarantee amount list displays a guarantee amount for each loan period.
(5) One or a combination of two or more of cash deposits, guarantee deposits and recourse rights is written on the debit side of the balance sheet. 5. The residential type non-recourse loan guarantee system according to claim 4, wherein one or a combination of two or more of tax, capital, and unappropriated retained earnings is described. (6) The income statement includes either or both of guarantee fees and commissions as operating revenue, and salaries, SG & A expenses, office rent, office start-up expenses, and proxy payments as operating and administrative expenses. 5. The residential type non-recourse loan guarantee system according to claim 4, wherein one or a combination of two or more of expenses and refund guarantee fees is described.
[0154]
【The invention's effect】
As described above, according to the residential non-recourse loan guarantee system of the present invention, the guarantee loan simulator that calculates the optimum guarantee fee and the management simulator that shows the soundness of the management of the guarantee company are provided. Non-recourse loans can be realized.
[0155]
By realizing a non-recourse loan of mortgage loans, it becomes possible to reduce the burden on the borrower without chasing the borrower even in the event of default.
[0156]
In the guarantee fee simulator, the guarantee fee is determined according to the status of assets such as location and building age, or the initial amount and loan period, so the guarantee fee setting considering the resale collection rate in case of default Can be performed.
[0157]
In addition to being a borrower-oriented system, the management simulator is designed to allow management simulations to be done in five years and ten years later. It is possible to continue sound management.
[0158]
The management simulator of the present invention is configured to generate a cash flow list, operating revenue list, guaranteed amount list, number of properties handled, balance sheet, and profit and loss statement as result information. It is possible to deal with dealing financial institutions clearly.
[0159]
In addition, the data used for the simulation can be changed according to the situation, so it is possible to measure the effects of unforeseen accidents and natural disasters such as a major earthquake, and it is easy to change the rate and forecast stock dividends. Can be done.
[Brief description of the drawings]
FIG. 1 is a conceptual diagram showing a mechanism of a residential non-recourse loan guarantee system of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram showing a hardware configuration of a guarantee fee simulator.
FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of an information input screen in a guarantee fee simulator.
FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of information used and calculated by a guarantee fee simulator.
FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of information used and calculated by a guarantee fee simulator.
FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of information used and calculated by a guarantee fee simulator.
FIG. 7 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of information used and calculated by a guarantee fee simulator.
FIG. 8 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of information used and calculated by a guarantee fee simulator.
FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing a hardware configuration of a management simulator.
FIG. 10 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of information used in a management simulator.
FIG. 11 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of output in a management simulator.
FIG. 12 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of output in a management simulator.
FIG. 13 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of output in a management simulator.
FIG. 14 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of output in a management simulator.
FIG. 15 is an explanatory diagram showing an example of output in the management simulator.
FIG. 16 is an explanatory diagram illustrating an output example in a management simulator;
FIG. 17 is a flowchart showing the relationship between a guarantee fee simulator and a management simulator.
18 is a flowchart showing a part of the flow of FIG. 17;
FIG. 19 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure of a program in a guarantee fee simulator.
FIG. 20 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure of a program in the management simulator.
[Explanation of symbols]
10 First computer device (guarantee fee simulator)
20 Second computer device (management simulator)
11, 21 Input section
12, 22 storage unit
13, 23 Control unit
14, 24 Output section
15, 25 Transceiver

Claims (19)

A residential non-recourse loan guarantee system that realizes non-recourse loans related to mortgages,
Calculate the asset balance of the asset purchased by the user from the seller and the debt balance of the loan received by the user from the loaner at the time of financing and a predetermined time in the future, and based on the asset balance and the debt balance, A guarantee fee simulator for calculating a guarantee fee to be paid to the guarantor when the user receives the loan;
When the default of the loan occurs in the future and there is a shortage that cannot cover the debt balance with the asset balance, the guarantee fee simulator calculates the case where the guarantor has paid for the full amount of the shortage A management simulator that predicts the balance of the guarantor based on the balance of assets, the balance of debts, and the amount of a guarantee fee,
The balance of the guarantor is shown as a difference obtained by subtracting the total amount of the shortage and the cost of the guarantor for a certain period from the total amount of the guarantee fee for a certain period. Loan guarantee system. The asset balance is calculated by reflecting a social situation and a condition including any one or a combination of two or more of a location, a location condition, a building age, and a building style indicating the quality of the asset. The residential non-recourse loan guarantee system according to claim 1. 2. The residential non-recourse loan according to claim 1, wherein the guarantee fee amount is calculated based on the asset balance, the debt balance, a down payment rate at the time of financing, and an accident occurrence rate of default. Security system. In the management simulator, in order to display the balance of the guarantor, at least one of a cash flow list, an operating revenue list, a guaranteed amount list, a list of handling properties, a balance sheet, and a profit and loss statement is created. The residential non-recourse loan guarantee system according to claim 1 characterized by the above-mentioned. A housing-type non-recourse loan guarantee method for realizing a non-recourse loan related to a mortgage,
Calculating the asset balance of assets purchased by the user from the seller at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future;
Calculating the debt balance of the loan received by the user from the lender at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future;
Calculating a guarantee amount at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future from the asset balance and the debt balance;
Calculating a guarantee fee to be paid to the guarantor when the user receives the loan based on the guarantee amount, a down payment rate at the time of financing, and an accident occurrence rate of default;
Calculating the total amount of the guarantee fee collected in a certain period;
Calculating a predicted occurrence amount of a shortage that cannot cover the debt balance with the asset balance in a certain period;
Calculating a predicted amount of expenses incurred on the guarantor side over a certain period of time;
A step of comparing the sum of the estimated amount of shortfall and the estimated amount of expenses incurred during the predetermined period and the total amount of the guarantee fee during the predetermined period, Loan guarantee method. The asset balance includes an asset price fluctuation rate indicating a condition including any one or a combination of a social situation and a location indicating the quality of the asset, a location condition, a building age, and a building style, and an asset at the time of acquisition. 6. The residential type non-recourse loan guarantee method according to claim 5, wherein the guarantee method is calculated from a price. In the step of calculating a guarantee amount at the time of financing and a predetermined time in the future from the asset balance and the debt balance,
Calculate the recovery amount reflecting the depreciation rate of the asset at the time of actual sale and the commission rate related to the sale in the asset balance,
6. The residential non-recourse loan guarantee method according to claim 5, wherein a guarantee amount at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future is calculated from the recovered amount and the debt balance. In the step of calculating a guarantee amount at the time of financing and a predetermined time in the future from the asset balance and the debt balance,
6. The residential non-recourse loan guarantee method according to claim 5, wherein a real debt balance is calculated by reflecting an amount of a down payment in the debt balance. Based on the guarantee amount and the default rate of accident occurrence, the step of calculating a guarantee fee to be paid to the guarantor when the user receives the loan,
6. The residential type non-recourse loan guarantee method according to claim 5, wherein the guarantee fee amount is calculated by reflecting an interest rate when the guarantee fee is used. A housing-type non-recourse loan guarantee business support device that realizes non-recourse loans related to mortgages,
At the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future, the asset balance of the asset purchased by the user from the seller and the debt balance of the loan received by the user from the lender are calculated, and from the asset balance and the debt balance, A first computer device for calculating a guarantee amount at a predetermined time in the future, and calculating a guarantee fee to be paid to the guarantor when the user receives the loan based on the guarantee amount;
In the future, when the default of the loan occurs and there is a shortage that cannot cover the debt balance with the asset balance, the guarantor pays for the full amount of the shortage, the first computer device And a second computer device that predicts the balance of the guarantor based on the estimated amount of the guarantee calculated in step 1 and the estimated amount of the shortage and the estimated cost generated on the guarantor side. This is a residential non-recourse loan guarantee business support device. The first computer device has an input unit for inputting a condition indicating an asset price at the time of asset purchase, a total borrowing amount at the time of receiving a loan, an initial amount, a loan period, and an asset quality;
A storage unit for storing information including the input information, a loan interest rate, a rate of change in asset price, a rate of depreciation when actually selling the asset, a fee rate related to sales, an investment interest rate, and a default rate of accident occurrence When,
Based on the information, a control unit that calculates an asset balance, a recovery amount at the time of asset sale, a debt balance, a guarantee amount, and a guarantee fee amount;
The residential non-recourse loan guarantee business support device according to claim 10, further comprising: an output unit that outputs a processing result in the control unit. The second computer device includes a guarantee fee amount calculated by the first computer and an actual value or predicted value of information relating to income including a fee amount relating to a guarantee service;
Actual or predicted information on spending, including labor costs, substitution fees, SG & A expenses,
Actual or predicted information on the loan period allocation rate, loan interest rate, guarantee fee rate, handling property growth rate, default rate of accident occurrence, substitution repayment recovery rate, guarantee contract cancellation rate,
Actual or predicted information on capital,
An input part for inputting the actual value or the predicted value of the information related to the deposit;
A storage unit for storing the input information;
Based on the information, a control unit that creates a cash flow list, an operating revenue list, a guaranteed amount list, a list of handled properties, a balance sheet, a profit and loss statement,
The residential non-recourse loan guarantee business support device according to claim 10, further comprising: an output unit that outputs a processing result in the control unit. Comparing the recovered amount and the debt balance at the time of default on the mortgage, if the debt balance is greater than the recovered amount, the difference between the recovered amount and the debt balance is calculated as a guarantee amount, A housing-type non-recourse loan guarantee business support program which causes a computer to execute a process of calculating a guarantee fee to be paid by a borrower based on the guarantee amount. Calculating the asset balance of assets purchased by the user from the seller at the time of financing and for a predetermined future time;
Calculating the balance of the loan received by the user from the lender at the time of financing and for a predetermined future time;
Calculating a guarantee amount at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future from the asset balance and the debt balance;
Causing the computer to execute a step of calculating a guarantee fee to be paid to the guarantor when the user receives the loan based on the guarantee amount, a down payment rate at the time of financing, and an accident occurrence rate of default Housing-type non-recourse loan guarantee business support program. The step of calculating the asset balance includes an asset price at the time of asset purchase, a social situation and a location indicating the quality of the asset, a location condition, a building age, a building style, or a combination of two or more. 15. The residential non-recourse loan guarantee business support program according to claim 14, wherein an asset balance at a predetermined time is calculated from an asset price fluctuation rate indicated as a condition. The step of calculating a guarantee amount at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future from the asset balance and the debt balance,
Calculating a recovery amount by reflecting the depreciation rate at the time of actual sale and the fee rate at the time of sale in the asset balance;
15. The residential non-recourse loan guarantee business support program according to claim 14, further comprising a step of calculating a guarantee amount at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future from the recovered amount and the debt balance. The step of calculating a guarantee amount at the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future from the asset balance and the debt balance,
15. The residential non-recourse loan guarantee business support program according to claim 14, further comprising a step of calculating a real debt balance by reflecting an amount of a down payment on the debt balance. Based on the guarantee amount and the default rate of accident occurrence, the step of calculating a guarantee fee to be paid to the guarantor when the user receives the loan,
15. The residential non-recourse loan guarantee business support program according to claim 14, further comprising a step of calculating the guarantee fee amount by reflecting an interest rate when the guarantee fee is used. At the time of financing and at a predetermined time in the future, the asset balance of the asset purchased by the user from the seller, the debt balance of the loan received by the user from the lender, and the guarantee amount required as the difference between the asset balance and the debt balance, Accepting data relating to a guarantee fee to be paid to the guarantor when the user receives the loan based on the guarantee amount;
Calculating the total amount of the guarantee fee collected for a certain period;
Calculating a predicted occurrence amount of a shortage that cannot cover the debt balance with the asset balance in a certain period;
Calculating a predicted amount of expenses incurred on the guarantor side over a certain period of time;
Comparing the sum of the predicted amount of deficiency and the estimated amount of expenses incurred during the certain period with the total amount of the guarantee fee during the certain period;
Housing-type non-recourse loan guarantee business support program characterized by

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