JP2005216125A - Evaluation method for facility value and facility operation method value, device and program for the method, evaluation method for facility operation method value and device therefor - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a means, for evaluating the value of not only entire business but also the value of an individual facility being a constituent element of the business or an individual facility operating method, which is useful for a proprietor when he or she determines whether or not the business is to be run by holding or using the facility. <P>SOLUTION: By using a computer, price fluctuation of material or a product over an evaluation period is calculated, by using a predetermined operation method based on the price fluctuation, a procurement amount of the material or the product is calculated. Then, by using the price fluctuation and the procurement amount, an operating revenue when the incidental facility of an evaluation object is used is calculated, an operating revenue when the incidental facility of the evaluation object is not used is calculated according to the price fluctuation and an operation plan, and by comparing the two calculated operating revenues, an evaluation of the incidental facility of the evaluation object is performed, in this evaluation method for the facility value and facility operation method. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2005,JPO&NCIPI

Description

  The present invention relates to an evaluation method of equipment value and equipment operation method value, an apparatus for evaluating the equipment value and equipment operation system value necessary for advancing the business, when planning a business to own and promote equipment, and its apparatus The present invention relates to a program and an evaluation method of equipment operation method value and an apparatus therefor.

  In the evaluation of business that owns and promotes facilities such as power plants, production lines, and fuel tanks, it is necessary to evaluate the asset value of the facilities in order to make investment decisions on the facilities. The acquisition cost of equipment was used. The equipment acquisition cost is a cost required to acquire equipment by means such as constructing a new equipment, remodeling existing equipment, or diverting idle goods. The value of the asset calculated in this way is not clearly linked to the business revenue that the asset brings, and it is not always necessary for the business evaluation to determine whether the business should own the facility or not. It may not be useful.

  There is an example in which the spark spread option is applied to a power plant as an evaluation method for linking the business revenue and asset value brought about by assets. For example, Non-Patent Document 1 describes a spark spread option for a gas turbine power plant. Spark spread is the difference between the price of a certain power and the price of fuel required to generate that power. In the power generation business, business revenue can be increased by generating power when the power price is higher than the fuel price, that is, when the spark spread is positive.

In addition, the business value evaluation method has been practiced in the field of corporate finance. For example, the discount cash flow method described in Non-Patent Document 2 can be used.
Blake Johnson et al. `` The New Power Markets '' p73-101, Risk Publication, (1999) Fumio Takahashi “Practical Corporate Finance” p11-22, Diamond, (2001)

  However, the asset value evaluation method based on business profit is limited to the case where such asset value is the same as the business value. For this reason, when considering the introduction of new equipment attached to existing equipment, or when trying to operate equipment with a different operation method, the business components are separated from the business value. Therefore, it was difficult to make an investment decision in such a case because it was not possible to calculate the value for individual equipment or individual equipment operation methods.

  Therefore, the problem to be solved by the present invention is not only the value of the entire business, but also a component of the business, which is useful in determining whether the business should own or use the equipment. It is to provide a means to evaluate the value of individual equipment or individual equipment operation methods.

  The method for evaluating the equipment value and the equipment operation system value according to the present invention, which has been made to solve the above-mentioned problems, first calculates the price fluctuation of the raw material or product over the evaluation period using a computer. Based on the above, the procurement amount of the raw material or product is calculated using a predetermined operation method. Then, by using the price fluctuation and the procurement amount, the business profit when the incidental equipment to be evaluated is used is calculated. In addition, it is possible to evaluate the ancillary equipment to be evaluated by calculating the business revenue when not using the ancillary equipment to be evaluated based on this price fluctuation and operation plan, and comparing the two calculated business profits. it can.

  Furthermore, the procurement amount of raw materials or products is calculated using the standard operation method, and the price fluctuation and the procurement amount are used to calculate the business revenue when the standard operation method is used. By comparing the business profit when using the method and the standard operation method, the predetermined operation method can be evaluated.

  According to the present invention, it is possible to quantitatively evaluate the value of equipment and equipment operation methods in direct association with business investment decisions. In addition, investment decisions are easier to understand because value can be determined at the level of real business components such as equipment and equipment operation methods rather than the entire business. Furthermore, it is possible to easily compare and evaluate equipment alternatives or alternative operation methods, and to quickly and accurately support investment judgment for partial changes in equipment or partial changes in operation methods.

(Outline of evaluation method)
Hereinafter, the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. The evaluation method according to the present invention evaluates the evaluation target facility or operation method by calculating the business profit when using the evaluation target facility or operation method in various facilities and operations using the operation method. . First, the outline of the evaluation method (hereinafter abbreviated as an evaluation method) of equipment value and equipment operation method value according to the present invention will be described.

  For example, FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram of the evaluation method of the present invention. The outline of the evaluation method of the present invention will be described with reference to the explanatory diagram shown in FIG. First, the price fluctuation model 11 of the raw material product outputs the price of the raw material / product over the evaluation period. The facility operation rule 12 stores, for example, an operation rule for the facility to be evaluated that determines the amount of raw materials and products stored in the storage facility. Then, in the raw material / product procurement amount / production amount determination procedure 13, the raw material / product price is output based on the raw material / product price output from the raw material product price fluctuation model 11 and the operation rule stored in the facility operation rule 12.・ Determine product procurement and production. Then, in the revenue evaluation procedure 14 associated with the operation of the facility, a revenue evaluation is output by calculating and comparing the revenue of the business using the storage facility to be evaluated over the evaluation period and the revenue of the business when not in use. To do.

(First embodiment)
Next, a description will be given of a first embodiment in which the evaluation method of the present invention is suitably applied to facility value evaluation for a fuel storage facility attached to a thermal power plant.

  In a power generation business having a thermal power plant as in this embodiment, the lower the fuel price relative to the power price, the higher the profit. Here, when the fuel storage facility is provided, it is possible to expect an effect of lowering the average fuel price by procuring and storing the fuel when the fuel price is low. Now, assume that a power plant consumes a certain amount of fuel every day while procuring fuel every day under the risk of price fluctuations. In thermal power plants that do not have fuel storage facilities, a certain amount of fuel is procured daily at that price. The value of a fuel storage facility, or the value of its operating system, can be assessed based on improved revenue by lowering the average fuel price.

  First, for example, FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram of the evaluation method of the present embodiment. With reference to the explanatory diagram shown in FIG. 2, the outline of the evaluation method of the present embodiment will be described. First, in the price fluctuation model 21 of the power generation fuel, the price of the power generation fuel is output over the evaluation period. The operation rule 22 for determining the amount of power generation fuel to be procured stores the operation rule for the fuel storage facility that is the object of evaluation for determining the amount of power generation fuel stored in the fuel storage facility. Then, in the procedure 23 for determining the consumption / storage amount of the power generation fuel, the operation stored in the operation rule 22 that determines the price of the power generation fuel output by the price fluctuation model 21 of the power generation fuel and the amount of the power generation fuel to be procured. Based on the rules, the procurement amount and storage amount of fuel for power generation are determined. Then, in the profit evaluation procedure 24 associated with the operation of the equipment, a profit evaluation is output by comparing the profit of the business using the fuel storage equipment to be evaluated over the evaluation period with the profit of the business not used.

(Evaluation equipment)
Next, FIG. 3 is a functional block diagram of the equipment value and equipment operation system value evaluation apparatus (hereinafter, abbreviated as an evaluation apparatus) of the present embodiment, which is made to realize the evaluation method of the present embodiment example. Shown in Here, each component of the evaluation apparatus 30 shown in FIG. 3 is demonstrated. The evaluation device 30 shown in FIG. 3 is composed of a keyboard, a mouse, and the like, and includes input means 32 for inputting information into each database described later, starting information of the evaluation device, input of operation rule selection information, and the like. An output unit 33 configured to display or print each data output from a comparative evaluation unit 37, which will be described later, which includes a display, a printer, and the like, an arithmetic processing unit 31 that performs various calculations, and information related to an operation plan of the thermal power plant Operation plan information DB 39 stored, facility specification information DB 40 storing information on facility specifications of the thermal power plant including the fuel storage facility, past aggregated fuel prices, maintenance of the thermal power plant It is mainly composed of a financial information DB 41 in which financial information such as costs, depreciation costs and electric power unit prices are stored. The operation plan information DB 39, the equipment specification information DB 40, and the financial information DB 41 correspond to information storage means in the claims.

  Further, the arithmetic processing unit 31 uses a fuel price output means 38 that outputs the price of the power generation fuel over the evaluation period, and a procurement amount calculation means that outputs the procurement amount of the power generation fuel using the operation rule related to the procurement amount of the fuel. 34, a target revenue calculation means 35 that corresponds to the first revenue calculation means in the claims, calculates the business revenue by calculating the procurement cost of the power generation fuel when the fuel storage facility is used, and the second in the claims It is equivalent to the revenue calculation means, and calculates the revenue of fuel for power generation when the fuel storage facility is not used and calculates the business revenue, and calculates the facility value as the evaluation criterion of the fuel storage facility Comparing and evaluating means 37 is comprised.

  Note that each means constituting the arithmetic processing unit 31 of the evaluation device 30 of the embodiment shown in FIG. 3 is an equipment value and equipment operation method value evaluation program according to the present invention (hereinafter abbreviated as an evaluation program). This is realized by executing, for example, on a computer. The computer includes a hard disk drive in which an evaluation program is stored and each database is constructed, a RAM (Random Access Memory) in which the evaluation program is read and expanded, and a CPU (Central Processing Unit) that executes the evaluation program expanded in the RAM The input unit 32 is mainly composed of a keyboard and a mouse, and the output unit 33 is a display.

  Further, the input means 32 and the output means 33 can be implemented by replacing them with network cards that can communicate via a network. In this case, various commands and information are input to the evaluation device 30 from another terminal device or the like via the network, and the evaluation device 30 outputs information about the evaluation result via the network.

(Evaluation methods)
Next, a procedure for calculating the facility value of the fuel storage facility of the thermal power plant using the evaluation apparatus 30 shown in FIG. 3 will be described using a series of flowcharts. First, the calculation procedure of the profit of the thermal power plant when using the fuel storage facility will be specifically described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG. In the procedure described below, the predetermined time for determining the number of repetition processes is, for example, one day, and the repetition process is performed for the number of days in the evaluation period.

  First, the evaluation device 30 acquires information on the initial value and evaluation period of the power generation fuel stored in the fuel storage facility from the input unit 32 (step S401). Then, the fuel price output means 38 of the evaluation device 30 determines whether the acquired evaluation period is in the past or in the future (step S402).

  If this evaluation period is in the past (Yes in step S402), the fuel price output means 38 outputs historical data of price fluctuations of the power generation fuel as fuel price data (step S403). Here, FIG. 5 shows an example of historical data of the fuel price output from the fuel price output means 38. The fuel price data shown in FIG. 5 is a total of fuel prices on each date over the evaluation period. As the fuel price data including the historical data, the fuel price data stored in the financial information DB 41 or the data acquired from the input unit 32 can be used.

  If the evaluation period is in the future (No in step S402), the fuel price output means 38 is a conventional technique based on historical data of fuel price fluctuations as shown in FIG. Using a model based on a stochastic differential equation such as a regression model, the predicted value of the fuel price for each date over the evaluation period is calculated and output as fuel price data (step S404). Here, the following equation (1) is a model equation of the average regression process.

    d (lnS) = a (b−lnS) dt + σdZ (1)

  Here, S represents the fuel price, a represents the regression rate, b represents the long-term equilibrium value, σ represents volatility, and dZ represents the Wiener process (Brownian motion). In this case, the predicted value of the fuel price is output as data having a stochastic distribution. FIG. 6 shows an example of the predicted value of the fuel price. The predicted value of the fuel price shown in FIG. 6 is composed of the predicted value of the fuel price for each date over the evaluation target period (in this example, from October 1, 2005 to November 1, 2005). It can be seen that the predicted value of the fuel price for each date is output as data having a probabilistic distribution.

  In this embodiment, the fuel price data is output by identifying the past or the future, but it is also conceivable to set an evaluation period from the past to the future. In that case, historical data is used for the past period, and a predicted value is used for the future period.

  Next, the evaluation device 30 calculates the fuel procurement amount of the power generation fuel by the procurement amount calculation unit 34 based on the operation rule of the fuel storage facility that reduces the average fuel price in the set evaluation period (step) S405). As an operation rule of this fuel storage facility, examples as shown in FIGS. 7 to 9 can be used. Here, the operation rules shown in FIGS. 7 to 9 will be described in detail.

  First, the operation rule shown in FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an operation rule for purchasing a fixed amount of power generation fuel. In this operation rule, paying attention to the purchase price of power generation fuel being the product of the purchase price 71 and the fuel procurement amount 72, using a purchase price constant curve 73 determined according to the storage level of the fuel storage facility, The amount of fuel procurement is adjusted so that the purchase price is constant against fluctuations in the price of fuel for power generation. As a result of purchasing a large amount when the price of fuel for power generation is low and purchasing a small amount when the price is high, the average purchase price can be kept lower than when purchasing a certain amount. The purchase amount is set relatively small when the storage level is high and relatively large when the storage level is low.

  Next, the operation rule shown in FIG. 8 is an operation rule for purchasing fuel for power generation by comparison with a moving average. In this operation rule, paying attention to the relationship between the current price 81 of the fuel for power generation and the moving average price 82, when the current price is lower than the moving average price, it is relatively larger than the reference fuel procurement amount 83, and when it is higher, the reference price Procure fuel for power generation relatively less than the amount of fuel procured. This moving average price is an average of the prices of fuel for power generation for a certain period (for example, one month) up to the present. The reference purchase amount 83 is set to be relatively small when the fuel storage level is high and relatively large when the fuel storage level is low.

And the operation rule shown in FIG. 9 is an operation rule of the action according to the area divided into zones by the fuel price and the fuel storage amount. In this operation rule, the degree of power generation fuel storage is indicated by the magnitude relationship between the storage amount (Vi) and the reference volume (Vref) on day (i). When this value is exceeded, it corresponds to the limit of not procuring when the price is rising. The degree of price increase is indicated by the magnitude relationship between the price (Pi) on day (i) and the moving average ( Pi ) for the last three months, for example. This operation rule determines the fuel procurement amount (Xi) of the power generation fuel depending on the price change ( Pi−Pi ) on day (i) and the storage level (Vi−Vref) of the fuel storage facility. The relationship between specific zoning and the corresponding fuel procurement amount (Xi)

(1) Do not procure fuel if the amount of storage exceeds a certain limit and the price is rising. At this time,

    Xi = 0 (2)

  And This corresponds to the region 91 shown in FIG.

(2) The amount of storage remains below a certain limit, but if the price is rising, a small amount of fuel is procured. The amount of procurement increases as the storage amount decreases and the price increase decreases. At this time,

  And Here, K1 is a proportional coefficient, and e1 is a constant. This corresponds to the region 92 shown in FIG.

(3) If there is a storage amount above a certain limit, but the price has dropped, a small amount of fuel will be procured. The amount of procurement increases as the storage volume decreases and the price drop increases. At this time,

  And Here, K2 is a proportionality coefficient, and e2 is a constant. This corresponds to the region 93 shown in FIG.

(4) If there is only a storage amount below a certain limit and the price has dropped, a large amount of fuel will be procured. The amount of procurement increases as the storage volume decreases and the price drop increases. At this time,

  And Here, K3 is a proportionality coefficient. This corresponds to the region 94 shown in FIG.

  Such operational rules can make the profits of the power generation business that owns and promotes the fuel storage facility advantageous. Based on such operation rules, the procurement amount calculation means 34 determines the fuel procurement amount on a predetermined day.

  Here, the fuel procurement amount calculation process in the procurement amount calculation means 34 of the evaluation apparatus 30 will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG. First, the procurement amount calculation unit 34 acquires the initial value of the fuel storage amount input in step S401, and acquires fuel price data including historical data or predicted values of the fuel price output by the fuel price output unit 38 ( Step S1001).

Then, the fuel consumption amount on the predetermined day of the thermal power plant is calculated from the operation plan of the thermal power plant stored in the operation plan information DB 39 (step S1002). Here, the fuel consumption can be calculated by the product of the operation time on a predetermined day in the operation plan and the fuel consumption per unit operation time of the power plant.

Next, the procurement amount calculation means 34 uses the specifications such as the maximum storage amount of the fuel storage facility stored in the facility specification information DB 40 as a constraint, and based on a predetermined operation rule, the procurement amount of fuel for power generation on a predetermined day The model parameter for determining is calculated (step S1003). Here, the model parameters are the purchase amount constant curve 73 in the operation rule shown in FIG. 7, the reference procurement amount 83 in the operation rule shown in FIG. 8, and the moving average ( Pi ) in the operation rule shown in FIG. It corresponds to. Then, using the facility specifications of the thermal power plant stored in the facility specification information DB 40 as a constraint, the amount of fuel to be generated for power generation on a predetermined day is calculated based on a predetermined operation rule using fuel price data and model parameters ( Step S1004). This fuel procurement amount is the sum of the fuel consumption and the fuel storage amount.

Returning to FIG. 4 again, next, the evaluation apparatus 30 acquires the operation maintenance cost, the construction depreciation cost, and other expenses on the predetermined day from the financial information DB 41 in the target revenue calculation means 35 (step S406). Next, the target revenue calculation means 35 calculates the fuel procurement cost for a predetermined day based on the fuel procurement amount calculated in step S405, and uses the fuel storage facility from the difference from the income to generate the power generation business. The profit on the predetermined day is calculated (step S407).
In addition, the profit of the power generation business when this fuel storage facility is used corresponds to the first business profit in the claims.

  Here, FIG. 11 shows an example of the profit structure of the power generation business. With reference to FIG. 11, the calculation procedure of the profit of a power generation business is demonstrated. The revenue 113 of the power generation business is calculated by the difference between the total revenue 112 and the total expenditure 111, and the total expenditure 111 is composed of fuel procurement costs, operation and maintenance costs, construction depreciation costs, and other expenditures. Composed of toll revenue and other revenue. Of these, operation and maintenance costs, construction depreciation costs, and other expenditures are stored in the financial information DB 41. Further, the total revenue 112 is composed of a power fee revenue and other revenues. Among these, the power fee revenue is calculated based on a power supply plan and stored in the financial information DB 41. It is possible to calculate the amount of power generation based on the operation plan of the power plant and use the one calculated by multiplying the unit price of power, etc. For other income, use the one stored in the financial information DB 41 .

  Finally, the evaluation device 30 determines whether the calculation of the profit over the evaluation period has ended (step S408). If the calculation has not been completed, the process of calculating the profit of the next day is repeated. Proceed to the next step.

  Next, the procedure for calculating the profit of the thermal power plant and the procedure for calculating the facility value of the fuel storage facility when the fuel storage facility is not used will be specifically described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG. In the procedure described below, the predetermined time for determining the number of repetition processes is similarly set to one day, and the repetition process is performed for the number of days in the evaluation period. Note that the profit of the thermal power plant when this fuel storage facility is not used corresponds to the second business profit of the claims.

  First, the reference revenue calculation means 36 of the evaluation device 30 calculates the fuel procurement amount on a predetermined day when the fuel storage facility is not used (step S1201). When the fuel storage facility is not used, the fuel consumption determined from the operation plan of the thermal power plant stored in the operation plan information DB 39 becomes the fuel procurement amount as it is.

Next, the reference profit calculation means 36 of the evaluation device 30 acquires the operation maintenance cost, the construction depreciation cost and other expenses for a predetermined day stored in the financial information DB 41 (step S1202). Then, the reference revenue calculating means 36 calculates the fuel procurement cost for the predetermined day based on the fuel procurement amount calculated in step S1201, and the power generation business in the case where the fuel storage facility is not used from the difference from the income. The profit on the predetermined day is calculated (step S1203).
Here, the fuel procurement cost can be calculated by multiplying the fuel price of the day by the fuel procurement amount from the fuel price data calculated in step S403 or step S404. Then, the evaluation device 30 determines whether the calculation of the profit over the evaluation period has ended (step S1204). If the evaluation has not ended, the process of calculating the profit of the next day is repeated. Go to step.

  Next, the evaluation device 30 uses the comparison evaluation means 37 to calculate the difference between the profit when the fuel storage facility calculated in step S407 is used and the profit when the fuel storage facility calculated in step S1203 is not used. Then, the value of the fuel storage facility is calculated (step S1205). Finally, the comparative evaluation unit 37 of the evaluation device 30 outputs the comparison result from the output unit 33 (step S1206).

  Here, FIG. 13 shows the difference in the probability distribution of the fuel procurement costs between when there is a fuel storage facility output from the output means 33 and when there is no fuel storage facility on a predetermined day (for example, October 20, 2005) within the evaluation period. It is an example of the display screen showing. Here, it is an example when the predicted value is used for the fuel price data. The predicted value of the fuel price is given probabilistically due to uncertainty or fluctuation as shown in FIG. 6, and the fuel procurement cost is also probable. Obtained as the expected value of the distribution. It can be seen that when there is a fuel storage facility, the expected value of the fuel procurement cost indicated by reference numeral 131 is reduced and fluctuations in the probability distribution can be suppressed due to the effect as compared with the case without the fuel storage facility. .

  FIG. 14 is an example of a display screen showing the difference in the probability distribution of profits when there is a fuel storage facility output from the output means 33 and when there is no fuel storage facility. Here, an example is shown in which the evaluation period is one year, and the business revenue for one year is tabulated. When there is a fuel storage facility, the effect is that of the revenue compared to the case without the fuel storage facility. It shows that the expected value is high and further suppresses fluctuations in the probability distribution. The value of the fuel storage facility is denoted by reference numeral 141, which is the difference between the expected value of business revenue when the business is performed using the facility and the expected value of business revenue when the business is performed without using the facility. Shown in the part shown.

  When historical data is used as fuel price data, fuel procurement costs and business profits are output as uniquely determined values.

  In the embodiment described above, the value of the fuel storage facility is calculated as the difference between the business value when the business is performed using the facility and the business value when the business is performed without using the facility. Then, the procedure for evaluating the value of the fuel storage facility by taking the difference was explained.

  When evaluating the value of the fuel storage facility or the fuel storage facility operation method, the effect of reducing the risk that the fluctuation of revenue is reduced is also converted into value and added to the improvement in the expected value of the fuel, and the fuel storage facility Or it can also be set as the value of a fuel storage equipment operating system.

(Second Embodiment)
In the second embodiment, the equipment operation method value is evaluated using the evaluation apparatus 30 shown in FIG. 3 used in the first embodiment. In the first example, the value of the fuel storage facility was evaluated by comparing the business value between the case where the fuel storage facility is used and the case where the fuel storage facility is not used, based on the case where the fuel storage facility is not used. On the other hand, in this embodiment, for example, a standard operation rule is selected from the three types of operation rules shown in FIG. 7 to FIG. 9, the business value is calculated, and other evaluation targets are obtained. The business value is calculated when the operation rule is adopted, and the operation rule to be evaluated is evaluated by comparing the two business values. In addition, in a present Example, the thermal power plant used as evaluation object is the same as 1st Embodiment. The configuration of the evaluation device 30 is also the same as that of the first embodiment, and a description thereof will be omitted.

  Here, FIG. 15 is an example of a flowchart showing a procedure for calculating the value of the operation rule. Next, with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG. 15, the procedure for evaluating the operation rule of the thermal power plant having the fuel storage facility using the evaluation apparatus 30 shown in FIG. 3 will be described.

  First, the evaluation device 30 acquires information on the initial value and evaluation period of the power generation fuel stored in the fuel storage facility from the input unit 32 (step S1501). Then, the fuel price output means 38 of the evaluation device 30 determines whether the acquired evaluation period is in the past or in the future (step S1502).

  If this evaluation period is in the past (Yes in step S1502), the fuel price output means 38 outputs historical data of price fluctuation of the power generation fuel as fuel price data (step S1503). Here, the fuel price data based on the output historical data is output as shown in FIG. 5 as in the first embodiment. If the evaluation period is in the future (No in step S1502), the fuel price output means 38 calculates the predicted value of the fuel price for each date over the evaluation period and outputs it as fuel price data (step S1504). ). Here, the fuel price data based on the output predicted value is the same as in the first embodiment.

  Next, the procurement amount calculation means 34 of the evaluation device 30 calculates the fuel procurement amount of the power generation fuel based on the operation rule to be evaluated (step S1505). As the operation rule, the examples shown in FIGS. 7 to 9 can be used. Then, the procurement amount calculation unit 34 of the evaluation device 30 calculates the fuel procurement amount of the power generation fuel based on the standard operation rule (step S1506). In addition, the operation rule used as this reference | standard can also select the operation rule currently employ | adopted by the thermal power plant, for example. Further, step S1505 and step S1506 are composed in detail of the procedure of the flowchart shown in FIG.

  Then, the evaluation device 30 acquires the operation maintenance cost, the construction depreciation cost, and other expenses on the predetermined day from the financial information DB 41 in the target revenue calculation unit 35 (step S1507). Next, the target revenue calculation means 35 calculates the fuel procurement cost on a predetermined day based on the fuel procurement amount calculated by the operation rule to be evaluated calculated in step S1505, and determines the predetermined from the difference from the income. The profit for the day is calculated (step S1508). Next, the target revenue calculation means 35 calculates the fuel procurement cost for a predetermined day based on the fuel procurement amount calculated by the standard operation rule calculated in step S1506, and calculates the predetermined day from the difference from the income. The profit at is calculated (step S1509). Then, the evaluation device 30 determines whether the calculation of the profit over the evaluation period has been completed (step S1510). If the calculation has not been completed, the evaluation device 30 repeats the process of calculating the profit for the next day. Proceed to step.

  Next, the evaluation device 30 uses the comparison and evaluation unit 37 to calculate the evaluation target from the difference between the profit from the operation rule to be evaluated calculated in step S1508 and the profit from the operation rule to be the reference calculated in step S1509. The value of the operation rule is calculated (step S1511). Finally, the comparison evaluation unit 37 of the evaluation apparatus 30 outputs the comparison result from the output unit 33 (step S1512). The calculation of the operation rule value in step S1511 can be considered to calculate the difference in the expected value of the business revenue over the evaluation period as in the first embodiment, and the output of the comparison result is also the example shown in FIG. As described above, a method of outputting a display screen for displaying the distribution of expected values of two business profits side by side can be used.

  According to this embodiment example consisting of the above procedure, in the business using equipment using the same evaluation apparatus 30 as in the first embodiment example, the profits of the standard operation method and the operation method to be evaluated It is possible to evaluate the facility operation method value by comparing.

  In this embodiment, the facility operation method value is evaluated using the same evaluation device 30 as in the first embodiment. However, in the facility operation method value evaluation process, the reference profit calculation means of the evaluation device 30 is used. 36 is not used. That is, if the evaluation device is intended only for the evaluation of the facility operation method value, it can be configured without the reference profit calculation means 36, and the evaluation device can be simplified.

  Further, the evaluation procedure of the fuel storage facility and the evaluation of the operation rule are performed by combining the evaluation procedure of the fuel storage facility shown in the first embodiment and the evaluation procedure of the operation rule of the fuel storage facility shown in the second embodiment. It can also be done at the same time.

  As described above, according to the present invention described above, it is possible to quantitatively evaluate the incidental equipment and the operation method by calculating the profit due to the presence / absence of the incidental equipment and the difference in the operation method and comparing it with the reference revenue. . Further, by executing these methods using a computer, it is possible to make a quick investment decision.

  Furthermore, in the first embodiment, the example in which the evaluation apparatus is configured as a single unit has been shown. For example, the financial information DB is replaced with a business system that handles financial information, and the operation plan information DB is It can be implemented in various ways, such as by replacing it with an operation management system such as a thermal power plant. In addition, the present invention includes the fuel storage facility attached to the thermal power plant described in the first embodiment and the second embodiment, and the evaluation of the operation method of the fuel storage facility used alone, the flywheel and the pumping water. It can be applied to various fields such as facility evaluation of power storage devices such as power plants. Therefore, the present invention is defined by the technical ideas described in the claims.

It is explanatory drawing of the equipment value and equipment operation system value evaluation method by this invention. It is explanatory drawing of the equipment value of 1st Embodiment, and an equipment operation system value evaluation method. It is a functional block diagram of an equipment value and equipment operation system value evaluation apparatus. It is a flowchart which shows the calculation procedure of the profit of a thermal power plant in the case of using a fuel storage facility. It is an example of the fuel price data by historical data. It is an example of the fuel price data by a predicted value. It is a figure explaining the operation rule which purchases a fixed amount of fuel for power generation. It is a figure explaining the operation rule of the fuel purchase for electric power generation by comparison with a moving average. It is a figure explaining the operation rule of the action according to the area divided into zones by the fuel price and the fuel storage amount. It is a flowchart which shows the calculation process of fuel procurement amount. It is a figure explaining the profit structure of a power generation business. It is a flowchart which shows the calculation procedure of the profit of a thermal power plant when not using a fuel storage facility, and the procedure which calculates the value of a fuel storage facility. It is an example of the display screen which compares fuel procurement expenses. It is an example of the display screen which compares an annual profit. It is a flowchart which shows the procedure which calculates the value of the operation rule of the thermal power plant which has a fuel storage facility.

Explanation of symbols

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 11 Price fluctuation model derivation means 12 Operation rule selection means 13 Procurement amount / production amount determination means 14 Profit evaluation means 30 Evaluation device 32 Input means 33 Output means 34 Procurement amount calculation means 35 Target profit calculation means 36 Standard profit calculation means 37 Comparative evaluation Means 38 Fuel price output means 39 Operation plan information DB
40 Equipment specification information DB
41 Financial Information DB

Claims (13)

A facility operation method value evaluation method for evaluating the value of a facility operation method in a business using facilities using a computer,
The computer is
A procedure for outputting price fluctuations of raw materials or products over an arbitrary evaluation period as aggregated past data or forecast data according to the evaluation period;
Calculating a first procurement amount of the raw material or product using a first operation method for improving the profit of the business based on the price fluctuation;
A procedure for calculating a second procurement amount of the raw material or product using a standard second operation method different from the first operation method;
Calculating a first business profit using the price fluctuation and the first procurement amount;
Calculating a second business profit using the price fluctuation and the second procurement amount;
A step of evaluating a facility operation method value of the first operation method according to a difference between the first business revenue and the second business revenue;
A method for evaluating the value of equipment operation methods. A facility or facility operation method evaluation method for evaluating the facility value or facility operation method value of ancillary facilities incidental to existing facilities in a business using facilities, using a computer,
The computer is
A procedure for outputting price fluctuations of raw materials or products over an arbitrary evaluation period as aggregated past data or forecast data according to the evaluation period;
Calculating a first procurement amount of the raw material or product using a first operation method for improving the profit of the business based on the price fluctuation;
Using the price fluctuation and the first procurement amount to calculate a first business profit when the incidental equipment is used;
Using the price fluctuation and the operation plan of the equipment to calculate the second business revenue when the incidental equipment is not used;
A procedure for evaluating a facility value of the incidental equipment according to a difference between the first business revenue and the second business revenue;
Evaluation method of equipment value or equipment operation system value characterized by The method for evaluating the facility value or the facility operation method value is:
The computer is
A procedure for calculating a second procurement amount of the raw material or product using a second operation method that is a standard different from the first operation method,
Using the price fluctuation and the second procurement amount to calculate a third business profit when the incidental equipment is used;
A step of evaluating a facility operation method value of the first operation method according to a difference between the first business revenue and the third business revenue;
The method for evaluating equipment value or equipment operation method value according to claim 2. The incidental facility is a storage facility for storing the raw material or product;
The evaluation method of the equipment value and equipment operation system value of Claim 2 or Claim 3 characterized by these. The first operating method depends on the price fluctuation and the storage level of the storage facility;
The method for evaluating facility value and facility operation method value according to claim 4. A facility operation method value evaluation device for evaluating the value of a facility operation method in a business using equipment,
The equipment operation method value evaluation device is:
An information storage means for storing the operation plan of the equipment, equipment specifications, financial information about the equipment and price information of raw materials or products;
Price output means for calculating the price fluctuation of the raw material or product over an arbitrary evaluation period using the price information stored in the information storage means according to the evaluation period;
Based on the price fluctuation and the operation plan, using the first operation method that improves the profit of the business, using the facility specifications as a constraint, calculate the first procurement amount of the raw material or product,
Based on the price fluctuation and the operation plan, the second procurement method of the raw material or the product is determined using the second operation method as a reference, which is different from the first operation method, with the facility specifications as a constraint. A procurement amount calculation means to calculate;
Revenue calculating means for calculating a first business revenue using the price fluctuation, the first procurement amount and the financial information, and calculating a second business revenue using the price fluctuation, the second procurement amount and the financial information. When,
Comparing and evaluating means for evaluating the facility operation method value of the first operation method according to the difference between the first business revenue and the second business revenue,
Equipment operation method value evaluation device characterized by A facility value or facility operation method value evaluation device that evaluates the facility value or facility operation method value of ancillary facilities incidental to existing facilities in a business using facilities,
The equipment value or equipment operation method value evaluation device is:
An information storage means for storing the operation plan of the equipment, equipment specifications, financial information about the equipment and price information of raw materials or products,
Price output means for calculating the price fluctuation of the raw material or product over an arbitrary evaluation period using the price information stored in the information storage means according to the evaluation period;
Based on the price fluctuation and the operation plan, a procurement amount calculation means for calculating a first procurement amount of the raw material or product using the first operation method in which the profit of the business is improved and using the facility specifications as a constraint. When,
Using the price fluctuation, the first procurement amount and the financial information, a first revenue calculating means for calculating a first business revenue when the incidental equipment is used;
Using the price fluctuation, the operation plan information and the financial information, a second revenue calculating means for calculating a second business revenue when the incidental equipment is not used;
Comparing and evaluating means for evaluating the equipment value of the incidental equipment according to the difference between the first business revenue and the second business revenue;
Equipment value or equipment operation system value evaluation device characterized by The procurement amount calculation means includes:
Based on the price fluctuation and the operation plan, the second procurement method of the raw material or the product is determined using the second operation method as a reference, which is different from the first operation method, with the facility specifications as a constraint. Calculate further,
The first revenue calculating means includes
Using the price fluctuation, the second procurement amount, and the financial information, further calculate a third business revenue when using the incidental equipment,
The comparative evaluation means includes
Further evaluating the facility operation method value of the first operation method according to the difference between the first business revenue and the third business revenue;
The equipment value or equipment operation system value evaluation apparatus according to claim 7. The incidental facility is a storage facility for storing the raw material or product;
The equipment value and equipment operation system value evaluation apparatus according to claim 7 or claim 8, wherein The first operating method depends on the price fluctuation and the storage level of the storage facility;
The facility value and facility operation method value evaluation method according to claim 9. The comparative evaluation means includes
Output as a display screen that allows you to compare information about business revenue to be evaluated with information about business revenue
The equipment value or equipment operation system value evaluation apparatus according to any one of claims 6 to 10. In the business using equipment, the equipment value or equipment operation system value evaluation device for evaluating the equipment value of the ancillary equipment attached to the existing equipment or the value of the equipment operation system, the equipment operation plan, equipment specifications, and the equipment An evaluation program for equipment value or equipment operation method value realized using a computer having information storage means for storing financial information and price information of raw materials or products,
The computer,
Price output means for calculating the price fluctuation of the raw material or product over an arbitrary evaluation period using the price information stored in the information storage means according to the evaluation period;
Based on the price fluctuation and the operation plan, a procurement amount calculation means for calculating a first procurement amount of the raw material or product using the first operation method in which the profit of the business is improved and using the facility specifications as a constraint. ,
A first profit calculating means for calculating a first business profit when the incidental equipment is used, using the price fluctuation, the first procurement amount and the financial information;
A second revenue calculating means for calculating a second business revenue when the incidental equipment is not used, using the price fluctuation, the operation plan information and the financial information;
Functioning as a comparative evaluation means for evaluating the equipment value of the incidental equipment according to the difference between the first business profit and the second business profit;
An evaluation program for facility value or facility operation method value. The procurement amount calculation means includes:
Based on the price fluctuation and the operation plan, the second procurement method of the raw material or the product is determined using the second operation method as a reference, which is different from the first operation method, with the facility specifications as a constraint. Calculate further,
The first revenue calculating means includes
Using the price fluctuation, the second procurement amount, and the financial information, further calculate the third business revenue when using the incidental equipment,
The comparative evaluation means includes
Further evaluating the facility operation method value of the first operation method according to the difference between the first business revenue and the third business revenue;
The facility value or facility operation method value evaluation program according to claim 12.

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