JP2005038200A - Electric power sales system and electric power price estimation method - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an electric power sales system capable of encouraging a consumer to purchase excessive electric power and allowing easy settlement of an electric power supply contract on-line between a power supplier and the consumer. <P>SOLUTION: This electric power sales system is provided with a server 10 connected to a customer terminal 30 via a predetermined network 40 for transmitting/receiving data. By access from the customer terminal 30, the server 10 presents demand data, in which a current demand amount already sold is subdivided by the season and the time when access to power supply is made after a predetermined period from the access time, and according to the demand data, computes a basic fee part of a sales price to the purchase period and the purchase amount designated by the customer terminal 30. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2005,JPO&NCIPI

Description

  The present invention includes a server connected to a customer terminal via a predetermined communication network such as the Internet so that data can be transmitted and received, and a power sales system for making an online power supply contract, and the basis of the power supply contract It relates to a method for calculating electricity prices.

  Conventionally, the supply of electric power to small consumers such as ordinary households and large consumers such as factories and buildings has been limited to existing power companies that have been approved in advance. Partially liberalized and used by other power suppliers such as independent power generators to customers using the power grids owned by existing power companies and the power purchased from other power suppliers Now available for sale.

In such a case, a power supply contract is concluded between the power supplier and the customer, and power is supplied based on the contract. However, the liberalization of power trading has progressed, and a real-time power trading market is assumed. In addition, there has been proposed a power trading system that supports power trading between one or more power suppliers and one or more consumers online using a communication network in the form of an auction or bidding (for example, a patent) Reference 1 and 2). In addition, in a power supply system by a power retailer that purchases power from a plurality of power suppliers and sells the power to one or a plurality of consumers, the power charge menu of the power supplier is displayed online using a communication network. A mechanism has been proposed in which low-cost power is acquired and retail power charges are set based on the power charge menu, and are presented to consumers along with other companies' power charges (see, for example, Patent Document 3). .
JP 2001-331691 A Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 2003-122957 JP 2003-022301 A

  However, at the present time, it is difficult to store the generated power basically, and as a rule, it must be consumed immediately, and the existing power company's power grid must be used. There are restrictions and it is difficult to establish a trading market similar to ordinary general goods. Therefore, there is a possibility that the free power trading market assumed in each of the above patent documents may not be realized. Therefore, when an existing power company or an independent power generation company contracts with a consumer individually to supply power, the power consumer will increase the amount for a certain purchase period in the future purchase period. It is preferable to immediately know the power charges of the power suppliers in the country and make a power supply contract under favorable conditions by comparing and examining them. On the other hand, in general, the basic tariff is fixed in advance in consideration of the cost, fixed costs, depreciation of power generation facilities, profits, and competitive relationships with competitors, etc. There are circumstances. Here, even if a basic charge is set lower than during high demand to stimulate demand during periods of low power demand and time periods, contracts are not necessarily concluded due to relationships with other companies, and contracts are possible as consumers. Judgment will be reserved to obtain favorable conditions during the period.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above-mentioned problems, and the object thereof is to solve the above-mentioned problems, and in a power supply contract between a power supplier and a consumer, a fixed period of time in the future. Electricity sales that encourage customers to purchase surplus power and easily make power supply contracts by presenting to the customer the electricity price that reflects the status of existing sales during the purchase period. It is an object of the present invention to provide a system and a power price calculation method for calculating a power price reflecting the already sold state.

  In order to achieve this object, the first characteristic configuration of the power sales system according to the present invention is performed on-line to make a power supply contract with a customer terminal and a server connected to be able to transmit and receive data via a predetermined network. The server is configured to subdivide the current demand sold at the time of access to the power supply after a certain period from the time of access by time and time for access from the customer terminal. The demanded data is presented, and the basic charge portion of the sales price for the purchase period and the purchase amount designated from the customer terminal is calculated and presented based on the demand data.

  According to the first characteristic configuration of the power sales system, a customer who is a consumer who has accessed the server can supply power to the power supply after a certain period from the point of access of the power supplier provided by the server on the customer terminal. It is possible to view the demand data that is divided into the current demand that has already been sold at the time of access by time and time and check the sales status, so that the power supplier can sell during the period of purchase The supply amount (inventory amount) can be grasped, and it can be used as a material for determining whether the planned purchase amount can be covered or whether it should be contracted immediately, and the basic charge part presented by the server is the current demand capacity. Since it is possible to determine whether or not the price is reasonable, it is possible to easily conclude a power supply contract online. Furthermore, since the basic charge part is calculated based on demand data that subdivides the current demand by time and time, it is possible to avoid unsold sales in times when the supply volume that can be sold is large, and it is too low. Strategic pricing that does not become a price can be performed.

  Therefore, if there is a period of time during which the supply volume that can be sold is large, the price will be set lower than the basic charge portion of the power price that is normally set, and the purchase will be made to the customer. It is an incentive to encourage judgment. In addition, as the amount of supply that can be sold decreases with the passage of time, the overall basic charge increases, which is an incentive for customers to make early purchase decisions. As a result, if customers make contracts early, they can receive power supply at low prices, and power suppliers can minimize the risk of unsold electricity and level the load on power supply capacity. .

  In the second characteristic configuration of the electricity sales system, in addition to the first characteristic configuration, the server specifies a unit basic charge for each time zone divided by time and time from the customer terminal. In addition, there is provided basic charge calculation means for calculating the basic charge portion by calculating each purchase period and adding the calculated unit basic charges.

  According to the second characteristic configuration of the electric power sales system, the time period in which the current demand amount that has already been sold is small, that is, the time period in which the supply amount that can be sold remains, depends on the degree of unsold. By setting strategic unit basic charges for each time zone that can avoid unsold sales to the band and do not become excessively low price, simply calculate the unit basic charge for the purchase period specified from the customer terminal If the amount of supply that can be sold is included in the specified purchase period, the price will be set lower than the basic charge portion of the power price set in a uniform manner. The effect of the characteristic configuration can be achieved.

  In the third characteristic configuration of the electric power sales system, in addition to the second characteristic configuration, the basic charge calculation means sets the unit basic charge for each time period in advance for each time period. In the first charge portion determined by the basic charge rate, at least the available supply amount in each time zone that remains unsold at the time of access, the unit basic charge, and the time from the calculation time to the sales deadline are variables. In other words, it is calculated by multiplying a function value of a predetermined correction function that has a positive correlation with the probability that the available supply amount in each time period is sold out by the sales deadline.

  According to the third characteristic configuration of the power sales system, when the first fee portion is set in advance, for example, a standard demand trend derived from the past supply record or the past of the customer to be contracted Based on the standard demand trend of the customer derived from the supply record, a low price is set in advance for a low demand period, and the price trend according to the demand trend is given to reduce the load on the power supply capacity. Leveling can be achieved primarily. By the operation of setting the first charge part independently, the correction function can ignore the standard demand trend and set the price according to the probability that the supply amount that can be sold in the time period is sold out. It can be a function, and the sold-out prediction model in the correction function can be simplified. As a result, unsold sales can be avoided in a time zone in which the amount of supply that can be sold is large, and strategic pricing that does not become excessively low can be performed with a simple model.

  For example, assuming a logarithmic normal distribution of a predetermined mean and variance as a probability density distribution with the forecasted sales amount that will be additionally sold in the future by the time of the sales deadline in a certain time zone, the mean and variance are Varies depending on the available sales amount (= total available supply amount-current demand amount), the unit basic charge, and the time from the calculation time to the sales deadline at the time of access that remains unsold at the time of access. It can be expressed as a function. By performing integration processing on this probability density function, it is possible to derive the sold-out probability that the product will be sold out before the sales deadline. In this derivation process, it is possible to use the same idea as the valuation formula for deriving the premium of European options using the future stock price as a random variable, and finally it can be expressed using the Black-Scholes formula, etc. The function value can be calculated simply and easily.

  In addition to any one of the above-mentioned feature configurations, the fourth feature configuration of the power sales system is a pattern that combines the purchase period and the purchase amount that the server can sell for access from the customer terminal. Preparing a plurality of converted power supply patterns, presenting the plurality of power supply patterns to be selectable, and determining the purchase period and the purchase amount determined by the power supply pattern selected by the customer terminal The basic fee is calculated and presented.

  According to the fourth characteristic configuration of the power sales system described above, the customer can easily select the power supply pattern without the need to set and input the purchase period and purchase amount by time period from the customer terminal to the server. You can know about the electricity price. On the other hand, if the power supplier side prepares multiple power supply patterns for the customer and secures a certain degree of freedom of customer choice, the demand trend aimed at leveling the power load suitable for the supply side There is also an advantage that it can be guided to.

  In addition to any one of the above-mentioned characteristic configurations, the fifth characteristic configuration of the electric power sales system is based on the usage amount divided by time period divided by time and time of the sales price with respect to access from the customer terminal. A unit price unit for calculating a unit price based on a predetermined calculation formula linked to a fuel future price at the time of access; and a unit price calculated by the unit price unit for the access from the customer terminal; It is in point to present.

  According to the fifth characteristic configuration of the power sales system, it is possible to fix the price of the metered unit price in addition to the basic charge portion of the power price at the time of the contract. In other words, the customer can set the basic charge portion and the pay-per-use unit price of the electricity price at the time of contract. Here, since the unit price is set in conjunction with the fuel future price, the power price fluctuation risk at the time of power supply accompanying the price fluctuation of the generated fuel can be distributed between the power supplier and the customer.

  In addition to any one of the above-mentioned feature configurations, the sixth feature configuration of the electricity sales system is that the server restricts the presentation of the sale price to a predetermined number of times for access within a certain period from the customer terminal. There is in point to do.

  According to the sixth characteristic configuration of the power sales system described above, it is possible to prevent an algorithm used for calculating the basic charge portion from being accessed multiple times, and in particular, to be known to competitors, and to provide security for the presented power price. The degree is improved. If the algorithm leaks to a competitor, the competitor can present a more advantageous price setting to the customer, resulting in inconvenience. However, according to this feature configuration, such inconvenience can be easily avoided.

  In order to achieve this object, the first characteristic configuration of the power price calculation method according to the present invention is that the computer device calculates the basic charge portion of the sales price of the power for the purchase period and purchase amount after a certain period from the calculation time point, Based on demand data obtained by subdividing the current demand sold at the time of calculation with respect to the power supply amount fixed at the time of calculation by time and time, the calculation by time period subdivided by time and time The unit basic charge for each time period that changes in conjunction with the unsold available supply amount at the time is calculated, and the calculated unit basic charge is calculated for the total purchase period.

  According to the first characteristic configuration of the power price calculation method described above, the basic charge portion is based on demand data obtained by subdividing the current demand by time and time, so that the current demand sold is low, that is, Depending on the degree of unsold supply, the basic unit charge of the strategic unit that can avoid unsold sales for that time period and does not become excessively low according to the level of unsold sales. By simply setting the unit basic charge calculated for the purchase period specified from the customer terminal, if there is a time zone during which the supply volume that can be sold is large within the input purchase period, Strategies that are priced lower than the basic rate portion of the electricity price set uniformly, can avoid unsold sales during times when the supply volume that can be sold is large, and does not become excessively low It is possible to carry out the pricing.

  In addition to the first feature configuration, the second feature configuration of the power price calculation method is a unit rate determined by a preset basic rate for each time zone in calculating the unit basic rate for each time zone. In each charge period, at least each of the above-mentioned hours with the available supply amount in each time slot unsold at the time of access, the unit basic charge, and the time from the calculation time to the sales deadline as variables It is the point which calculates by multiplying the function value of the predetermined | prescribed correction | amendment function which has the positive correlation with the sell-out probability by which the said sellable supply amount of a belt | band | zone is sold by the said sales deadline.

  According to the second characteristic configuration of the power price calculation method, when the first charge portion is set in advance, for example, a standard demand trend derived from the past supply record or the past of the customer to be contracted Based on the standard demand trend of the customer derived from the supply performance of the customer, a low price is set in advance during the low demand period, and the load on the power supply capacity is given a price trend that matches the demand trend. Can be primarily achieved. By the operation of setting the first charge part independently, the correction function can ignore the standard demand trend and set the price according to the probability that the supply amount that can be sold in the time period is sold out. It can be a function, and the sold-out prediction model in the correction function can be simplified. As a result, unsold sales can be avoided in a time zone in which the amount of supply that can be sold is large, and strategic pricing that does not become excessively low can be performed with a simple model.

  For example, assuming a logarithmic normal distribution of a predetermined mean and variance as a probability density distribution with the forecasted sales amount that will be additionally sold in the future by the time of the sales deadline in a certain time zone, the mean and variance are Varies depending on the available sales amount (= total available supply amount-current demand amount), the unit basic charge, and the time from the calculation time to the sales deadline at the time of access that remains unsold at the time of access. It can be expressed as a function. By performing integration processing on this probability density function, it is possible to derive the sold-out probability that the product will be sold out before the sales deadline. In this derivation process, it is possible to use the same concept as the valuation formula for deriving the premium for European options using the future stock price as a random variable. Finally, the Black Scholes formula can be transformed and represented The function value can be easily calculated by simplifying.

  The third characteristic configuration of the electricity price calculation method is based on a standard load tendency with respect to the maximum load in each time zone, in addition to the second characteristic configuration, the basic rate in each time zone, It is in the point set so that it becomes large, so that a load factor is large.

  According to the third characteristic configuration of the power price calculation method, for example, a standard demand trend derived from the past supply record, or a standard demand in the customer derived from the past supply record of the contract target customer. Based on the trend or the like, it is possible to set a low price in advance for a time zone with low demand and to have a price trend in line with the demand trend to first level the load on the power supply capacity. By the operation of setting the first charge part independently, the correction function can ignore the standard demand trend and set the price according to the probability that the supply amount that can be sold in the time period is sold out. It can be a function, and the basic charge part calculation algorithm can be simplified.

  A fourth characteristic configuration of the power price calculation method is that, in addition to the second or third characteristic configuration, a random function is used in the calculation of the function value of the correction function.

  According to the fourth characteristic configuration of the power price calculation method, the calculation of the function value of the correction function can be derived using a known Monte Carlo method or the like. At this time, since the random function is used, the calculation result fluctuates even under the same conditions, and it is difficult for a third party to decipher the calculation algorithm from the calculation result. Furthermore, by changing the random number generation pattern to be used for each calculation, it becomes more difficult for a third party to decipher the calculation algorithm from the calculation result, and the degree of security for the calculation result is improved.

  As described above, according to the present invention, in the power supply contract between the power supplier and the customer (customer), the existing sales situation in the purchase period is reflected to the fixed purchase period and the fixed purchase amount in the future. Electricity price can be presented to the customer, encourages the customer to purchase surplus electricity, and an electric power sales system that can easily make a power supply contract, and an electric power price that reflects the existing sales situation is calculated It is possible to provide a power price calculation method for this purpose.

  Regarding the embodiment of the power sales system according to the present invention (hereinafter referred to as “the present system” as appropriate) and the power price calculation method used in the present system (hereinafter referred to as “the present method” as appropriate) This will be described with reference to the drawings.

  The system 1 of the present invention derives and presents necessary information for making a power supply contract online with a customer (electric power consumer) who has accessed the server device 10 from the client terminal 30 via the computer network 40 such as the Internet. A computer system that is executed by computer processing and supports the power supply contract, and has a system configuration as shown in FIG. In addition, assuming that the prior basic contract for validating the contract online is concluded between the power supplier and each customer, the system 1 side of the present invention 1 accesses the attribute data of the accessed customer, charging Data and the like are separately stored in a customer database or the like (not shown).

  As shown in FIG. 1, the system 1 of the present invention includes a server device 10, a first actual record of supply (past supply) for past power supply by time period and customer by time period, and by customer. A demand database 20 configured to be able to operate a database from the server device 10, which stores demand data and second demand data indicating sales results for future power supply by time zone and by customer. It is prepared for. Here, by period and hour, for example, taking into account both monthly seasonal fluctuations in power demand and day and night time fluctuations in a day, for example, demand or sales for a year of purchase If it is a record, if the time width of one hour zone is 1 hour, there will be 365 (days) × 24 (hours) = 8760 time zone data.

  The server device 10 is installed on the power supplier side, and is connected via a client terminal (customer terminal) 30 used by a customer who is a spatially separated power consumer and a general-purpose computer network 40 such as the Internet. Are connected to each other so that data can be transmitted and received.

  Further, the server device 10 functions as a WEB (web) server 11, a DB (database) server 12, and an application server 13. Each server is configured with predetermined hardware and software as a server computer corresponding to each function. The servers 11 to 13 may be configured with independent hardware, or may be configured on common hardware. Since the specific hardware configuration of each server is not the gist of the present invention, description thereof is omitted.

  The WEB server 11 transmits screen data corresponding to the URL in HTML or XML format in response to an access from each client terminal 30 specifying a URL (uniform resource locator). The screen data received by the general-purpose WEB browser software is displayed on the screen in the WEB format, and data can be transmitted to and received from the WEB server 11 via the displayed screen data. Since data is transmitted and received in the WEB system, the client terminal 30 does not need dedicated software for the system 1 of the present invention other than general-purpose WEB browser software. Hereinafter, unless otherwise specified, data transmission / reception between the server apparatus 10 (WEB server 11) and the client terminal 30 is performed by a well-known WEB method, and screen display on the client terminal 30 is performed by the WEB format.

  The DB server 12 executes database operations such as registration, search, change, and deletion of the first demand data or the second demand data with respect to the demand database 20 in the background of the WEB server 11. Registration, change, and deletion of data in the demand database 20 is performed in accordance with predetermined database processing based on data (purchaser, purchase period, purchase amount, etc.) related to power purchase input from each client terminal 30 to the WEB server 11 An executable statement is created and executed. The search result of the second demand data in the demand database 20 is processed into a predetermined display format and is output from the WEB server 11 so as to be displayed on the terminal screen to the client terminal 30 being accessed.

  The application server 13 is a computer that executes calculation of power prices and other processes according to the method of the present invention, and includes a basic charge calculation means 14, a unit price calculation means 15, and a power supply pattern processing means 16. Each of these means 14 to 16 is performed by software processing using hardware resources (CPU, various storage devices, etc.) and software resources (OS, various drivers, database management software, etc.) of the computer 8 constituting the application server 13. It is a functional means to be realized.

  Hereinafter, functions and operations of each unit will be described.

  First, the second demand data stored in the demand database 20 is stored in the time period corresponding to the purchase period and the purchase amount based on the contents of the contract every time an individual power supply contract is concluded on the server device 10. Separately, it is added to the already sold quantity data (corresponding to the current demand quantity), and the second demand data is sequentially updated. In the database update process, every time the WEB server 11 receives contract data such as a purchase period and a purchase amount, the DB server 12 sets the second demand data stored in the demand database 20 to a time corresponding to the purchase period. In order to add to the already sold amount data for each band, the current data is read, and update processing is performed to overwrite the update data after adding each purchase amount. By executing such an update process for each contract, the second demand data indicating the current demand amount for each latest time zone is always maintained in the latest state.

  On the other hand, the 1st demand data shows the demand performance with respect to the past electric power supply according to a customer, and in order to perform a billing process with respect to the actual power consumption of a customer, the wattmeter provided for each customer Based on the guideline value, the performance data is also aggregated for each time period. The meter reading process may be any meter reading method such as meter reading by a meter reader or automatic meter reading. In addition, if it is impossible to aggregate the results by time period with the wattmeter, it is processed into data by time period using the demand fluctuation data by time period of the power supplied data of the second demand data. May be. The second demand data thus created is temporarily stored in the customer database in the power billing system, which is a system different from the system 1 of the present invention, and transferred to the demand database 20. In the case where the system 1 of the present invention and the power billing system are built in the same facility and connected online via a LAN or the like, the second demand data is not stored in the demand database 20 but stored in the customer database. You may use what was done.

  The second demand data is used for setting a power charge rate that is a basis for calculating a basic charge portion of the power price by a basic charge calculating means 14 described later.

  Assuming that the first and second demand data described above is stored in the demand database 20, the operation and function of the system 1 of the present invention will be described in accordance with the flow of processing with the client terminal 30. This will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG.

  The customer accesses the server device 10 by starting an installed web browser from the client terminal 30 used by the customer. Access is made to the power supply contract homepage, and through an authentication procedure such as an ID code and a password acquired in advance, access for the power supply contract is executed (# 10).

  Next, for the access, the server device 10 sets a sales period effective at the time of access, for example, one year from the first two months ahead of the access month as the sales period, and the DB server 12 Within the sales period, the already sold amount for which a power supply contract has already been established is acquired for each time zone, and the total for each time zone is calculated and transferred to the WEB server 11 as demand data for customer presentation (# 20). The WEB server 11 processes the demand data into demand data display data converted into a display format such as a graph and transmits the demand data display data to the accessing client terminal 30 (# 21).

  When the client terminal 30 receives the demand data display data, the web browser processes the received data, and the demand data converted into a display format such as a graph is displayed (# 11).

  The demand data display data includes power supply pattern selection screen data, and a power supply pattern selection screen is simultaneously displayed on the display screen. Therefore, the customer selects on the screen a power supply pattern that matches the desired purchase period and purchase amount. Specifically, electricity sales are provided in packages, and for each package, a power supply pattern that shows the change in the load factor for each purchase period, period, and time within the period is defined. Select and combine to match desired purchase volume. The purchased power supply pattern in which the selected packages are totaled is displayed in a superimposed or side-by-side manner with the demand data by a totaling program incorporated in the demand data display data in advance. When the displayed purchased power supply pattern is confirmed, a confirmation button on the screen is clicked (pressed), and selection data relating to the selected power supply pattern is transmitted to the server device 10 (# 12).

  When the server device 10 receives the selection data, first, the power supply pattern processing means 16 configured in the application server 13 synthesizes the purchased power supply pattern selected by the customer from the selected package based on the selection data. Then, from the result, the purchase amount for each purchase period and its time zone is calculated, and temporarily stored for the subsequent price calculation and the update of second demand data after the contract establishment described later. Subsequently, the basic charge calculation means 14 and the unit price calculation means 15 configured in the application server 13 determine the power price for the purchased power supply pattern selected based on the purchase period and the purchase quantity for each time zone as the basic charge. The calculation is performed separately for the portion and the unit price (# 22). Here, as for data necessary for the calculation, the DB server 12 searches for the second demand data stored in the demand database 20, and the application server 13 receives the external server 50 via the communication interface of the WEB server 11. (Refer to FIG. 1), the fuel future price data 60 (refer to FIG. 1) stored therein is searched and acquired. Details of the power price calculation will be described later. The price data including the calculated basic charge part and the unit price is transmitted to the client terminal 30 (# 23).

  When the client terminal 30 receives the basic charge portion and the price data of the metered unit price, the client terminal 30 displays the basic fee portion and the metered unit price together with the demand data and the purchased power supply pattern displayed on the screen (# 13). The customer looks at the displayed power price and determines the validity of the presented power price by collating it with a presumed budget or the like (# 14). Here, if it is determined that the power price is not appropriate, or if it is desired to make a price inquiry for another power supply pattern, the process returns to step # 12 and the same procedure is repeated (# 12, # 22, # 23, # 13). On the other hand, if there is an intention to conclude a power supply contract by agreeing to the selected purchased power supply pattern and the presented power price, clicking the application button on the screen transmits data to that effect to the server device 10. (# 15).

  When the server device 10 receives the data indicating the contract application, the server device 10 again generates contract content data for displaying a list of contract details, contract conditions, and the like, and transmits them to the client terminal 30 (# 24). When the client terminal 30 receives the contract content data, the client terminal 30 displays a list of contract contents, contract conditions, etc. on a new screen (# 16). The customer confirms the contract contents, contract conditions, etc. displayed on the screen again. If there is no problem, the customer clicks the consent button on the screen and transmits the consent data indicating the contract acceptance to the server device 10 (# 17). ).

  Upon receipt of the consent data, the server device 10 confirms the contract and executes processing necessary for post-processing after the contract, for example, registration of contract contents in a predetermined database, notification of contracts to related parties, and the like. (# 25) Based on the purchased power supply pattern of the contract content, the second demand data stored in the demand database 20 is updated (# 26). This completes the series of online contract procedures.

  Next, the power price calculation process in step # 22 using the method of the present invention will be described. First, the calculation process of the basic charge portion by the basic charge calculation means 14 will be described.

  The basic fee calculation means 14 subdivides the purchased power supply pattern received from the client terminal 30 in step # 22 by time zone to calculate a unit basic fee for each purchase amount, and calculates the unit basic fee for each calculated time zone. The basic charge is calculated by adding the charges. Since the calculation of the unit basic charge in each time zone is common, the calculation processing procedure of one unit basic charge will be described.

  The basic charge calculation means 14 reads the second demand data in advance before calculating the unit basic charge, and at the time of access, that is, at the time of calculation with respect to the total supply amount that can be supplied by the power supplier in the calculation target time zone i. Find the amount of supply already sold (current demand). As a result, assuming that the total supply amount in the time zone i is Ci and the current demand amount in the time zone i is Ai, the supply amount Bi that can be sold in the time zone i at the time of calculation is given by Bi = Ci−Ai.

  The basic charge calculation means 14 calculates the unit basic charge Pi based on the calculation formula of the unit basic charge Pi of the time zone i given by the following formula 1.

(Equation 1)
Pi = P1i × Fi (T, Bi, Pi)
P1i = P0 × Ri

  In Equation 1, P1i is a first charge portion determined by a preset basic charge rate Ri in the time zone i, and Fi is a time T (= T1-T0) from the calculation time point T0 to the sales deadline time point T1. This is a correction function using the available supply amount Bi and the unit basic charge Pi as variables, and has a positive correlation with the probability Ai that the available supply amount Bi is sold out by the sales deadline T1.

Here, a logarithmic normal distribution having a predetermined average u and variance σ ² is assumed as a probability density distribution Ψ having a sales forecast amount Si additionally sold from the calculation time T0 to the sales closing time T1 for the time zone i as a random variable. In this case, the average u and variance σ ² can be expressed by a function that varies depending on the available supply amount Bi, the unit basic charge Pi, and the time Ti. In addition, since the sales forecast amount Si to be additionally sold does not become negative, it is assumed that the log normal distribution is used instead of the normal normal distribution. This is because Black Scholes' valuation formula for calculating the European option premium assumes a lognormal distribution in the probability density distribution with the future stock price subject to the option as a random variable in the derivation process of the valuation formula. Is the same as By performing an integration process on the probability density function Ψ, the sold-out probability Ai sold out by the sales closing time point T1 can be derived in the form shown in Equation 2. Therefore, the correction function Fi can be expressed in a simplified manner as shown in Equation 3 or Equation 4, for example, using the sold-out probability Ai shown in Equation 2. Here, Bi may be a constant or a function having the time Ti as a variable.

(Equation 3)
Fi = Bi × exp (Ai)
(Equation 4)
Fi = Bi × (1 + Ai)

  The basic charge calculation means 14 calculates the unit basic charge Pi given by Equation 1 to Equation 3 or Equation 4, but since the unit basic fee Pi is included in the form of a function on the right side of Equation 1, the unit basic fee Pi. Is not obtained as a simple analysis function of the available supply amount Bi and time Ti, but is calculated using an appropriate numerical analysis method. At this time, if an indefinite element is included in the formula, the additional sales amount up to the sales closing time T1 obtained by definite integration between 0 and Bi of the product of the probability density function Ψ and the predicted sales amount Si to be additionally sold. The unit basic charge Pi is determined so that the product Pi × (Ai + Ri) of (Ai + Ri) obtained by adding the current demand amount Ai to the expected value Ei of the current value and the unit basic charge Pi becomes the maximum.

Further, with respect to Equation (3) or Equation (4), an appropriate assumption is made about the average supply u of the probability density distribution Ψ and the variance σ ² expressed as a function of the available supply amount Bi, the unit basic charge Pi, and the time Ti. This simplifies the calculation and reduces the amount of calculation.

  The basic charge rate Ri used when calculating the first charge portion P1i of Equation 1 is obtained from the first demand data in the demand database 20 of the customer's past demand record corresponding to the time zone i to be calculated. Then, the average is obtained to obtain the load rate with respect to the actual demand at the peak, and the basic rate of charge Ri is also lowered so that the lower the load factor, the lower the price setting according to the load factor. Here, the total of the first fee portion P1i throughout the year is fixedly determined in advance in consideration of costs, fixed costs, power generation equipment amortization costs, profits, competitive relationships with competitors, etc. The basic charge rate Ri for each time zone i is set in advance so as to be a constant value (annual value) corresponding to the basic charge portion of. In addition, in the case of a small customer or a new customer, if there is no accumulation of past customer-specific demand results, the basic charge rate Ri is calculated for each customer attribute using the customer-specific demand results of the same attribute. The basic charge rate Ri of the attribute is used.

  Next, calculation processing of the metered unit price Q of the power price by the metered unit price calculation means 15 will be described. The unit price Q is slid to the fuel price G, and is given by the following formula 5, for example. Here, a and b are predetermined constants.

(Equation 5)
Q = a * G + b = a * Gx + b

  Therefore, in the present embodiment, the fuel future price Gx is used as the fuel price G because it is necessary to determine the unit price Q at the time of customer access. The fuel future price Gx is the fuel future price of the day or time to which the time zone i belongs at the time of access to the fuel future market. Specifically, the unit price calculation means 15 accesses the external server 50 (see FIG. 1) via the communication interface of the WEB server 11, and stores the fuel future price data 60 (see FIG. 1) stored therein. The necessary fuel future price Gx is obtained by searching, and the unit price Q is calculated based on the equation (5).

Hereinafter, another embodiment will be described.
<1> In the processing procedure shown in the flowchart of FIG. 2 in the above-described embodiment, the system 1 of the present invention is configured to accept an unlimited inquiry about the power price from the client terminal 30, but this is limited to a certain number of times. It is also preferable to do so. In this case, for example, the inquiry count is reset to 0 at the first access for each customer every day, and the inquiry count is incremented by 1 every time selection data is received in step # 22 of the flowchart of FIG. When the number of times exceeds the predetermined number, the power price is not calculated in step # 23, and a message to the effect that the upper limit of the number of inquiries per day has been reached is displayed on the client terminal 30. Is also preferable. With this configuration, the customer's power price inquiry frequency is limited, and it is possible to prevent the calculation algorithm being used from being decoded from a plurality of power prices with different conditions.

  <2> It is also preferable to use a random function in the calculation of the function value of the correction function Fi in the calculation process of the unit basic charge Pi by the basic charge calculation means 14 of the above embodiment. That is, the function value of the correction function Fi is calculated by the Monte Carlo method using a random function that generates a random number with a predetermined random number pattern. In this way, by adding randomness to the calculation process, the calculation result fluctuates, and the customer can be prevented from decoding the calculation algorithm from a plurality of power prices whose conditions have been changed. Further, by changing the random number pattern used for each calculation, the fluctuation of the calculation result appears remarkably, so that the degree of security for the calculation result is further improved.

  <3> In the above embodiment, the processing procedure for data transmission / reception between the server device 10 and the client terminal 30 shown in the flowchart of FIG. 2 or the processing procedure of the server device 10 is an example and is appropriately changed. Is possible. For example, from step # 21 to step # 11, the demand data and the power supply pattern are simultaneously transmitted from the server apparatus 10 to the client terminal 30, but may be transmitted separately. Further, which is transmitted first and displayed is arbitrary. In addition, in the calculation of the power price in steps # 22 and # 23, the basic charge portion and the unit price may be calculated separately, and the respective calculation results may be individually transmitted to the client terminal 30.

  <4> In the processing procedure shown in the flowchart of FIG. 2 in the above embodiment, the system 1 of the present invention uses a preset power supply pattern, but according to the current demand at that time for each access. You may make it increase / decrease the electric power supply pattern to show.

  <5> In the above embodiment, the basic charge rate calculated in advance is used in the calculation of the basic charge portion of the power price. However, the basic charge rate based on the latest first demand data at the time of access is used. May be calculated and used.

  <6> In the above embodiment, the formula for calculating the unit basic charge Pi exemplified in Equations 1 to 4 is an example, and can be changed as appropriate. For example, the correction function Fi may be defined by introducing a probability distribution different from the probability Ai that the available supply amount Bi is sold out by the sales closing time point T1. Further, as a variable of the correction function Fi, other variables may be introduced in addition to or instead of the time T, the available supply amount Bi, and the unit basic charge Pi.

The block block diagram which shows one Embodiment of the electric power sales system which concerns on this invention The flowchart which shows the process sequence which the electric power sales system which concerns on this invention implements, and the work procedure using the system

Explanation of symbols

1: Power sales system according to the present invention 10: Server device 11: WEB server 12: DB (database) server 13: Application server 14: Basic fee calculation means 15: Pay-per-unit price calculation means 16: Power supply pattern processing means 20: Demand Database 30: Client terminal 40: Computer network 50: External server 60: Reception input terminal

Claims (10)

A power sales system for performing an online power supply contract with a server connected to a customer terminal via a predetermined network so that data can be transmitted and received,
For the access from the customer terminal, the server presents demand data obtained by subdividing the current demand sold at the time of access to the power supply after a certain period from the time of access by time and time, A power sales system, characterized in that a basic charge portion of a sales price for a purchase period and a purchase amount designated from a customer terminal is calculated and presented based on the demand data.   The server calculates a unit basic charge for each time period subdivided by time and time for each of the purchase periods specified from the customer terminal, and adds the calculated unit basic charges to the basic charge. The power sales system according to claim 1, further comprising basic charge calculation means for calculating a charge portion.   The basic fee calculation means is configured to set the unit basic fee for each time zone to at least a first fee portion determined by a preset basic fee rate for each time zone, and at least the remaining unsold at the time of access. The sellable supply amount in each time zone is sold out by the time of the sales deadline, using as variables the saleable supply amount in the time zone, the unit basic charge, and the time from the calculation time to the sales deadline. The power sales system according to claim 2, wherein calculation is performed by multiplying a function value of a predetermined correction function having a positive correlation with the probability.   The server prepares a plurality of power supply patterns in which a combination of the purchase period that can be sold and the purchase amount is patterned for access from the customer terminal, and the plurality of power supply patterns can be selected. 4. The basic charge portion for the purchase period and the purchase amount determined by the power supply pattern selected by the customer terminal is calculated and presented. The electricity sales system according to item 1. The server is a predetermined calculation formula that links the unit price per time period divided by time and time of the sales price with the fuel future price at the time of access for access from the customer terminal. The unit price calculation means to calculate based on
The electric power sales system according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the unit price unit calculated by the unit price unit calculating unit is presented for access from the customer terminal.   6. The power sales system according to claim 1, wherein the server limits the presentation of the sales price to a predetermined number of times for an access within a certain period from the customer terminal. .   The computing device determines the purchase period after a certain period from the time of calculation and the basic charge portion of the sales price of power for the purchased amount, and the current demand amount already sold at the time of calculation for the power supply fixed at the time of calculation. Based on demand data that is subdivided according to time and time, the unit basic charge for each time zone that changes in conjunction with the unsold available supply amount at the time of calculation for each time zone that is subdivided according to time and time And calculating the unit basic charge calculated in total for the purchase period.   In calculating the unit basic charge for each time zone, at least the unsold supply amount of each time slot that remains unsold at the time of access in the first charge portion determined by the preset basic charge rate for each time slot. And the unit basic charge and the time from the calculation time to the sales deadline as a variable, and the positive correlation between the sold-out probability that the available supply amount in each time zone is sold out by the sales deadline The power price calculation method according to claim 7, wherein the calculation is performed by multiplying by a function value of a predetermined correction function.   9. The basic charge rate in each time zone is set so as to increase as the load rate increases based on a standard load tendency with respect to the maximum load in each time zone. Electricity price calculation method.   The power price calculation method according to claim 8 or 9, wherein a random function is used in calculating the function value of the correction function.

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