JP2004295492A - Life planning device and method, computer program, program storage medium - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To perform a life planning based on an asset management method suited to a risk allowance in asset management. <P>SOLUTION: This life planning device 10 comprises a data input part 20 for accepting input of basic data including the risk allowance to asset management, the amount of asset holdings, the time of a future life event such as home purchase or the like, its payment scheduled amount, etc.; an operation method determination part 22 for determining the asset management method suitable to the risk allowance; an income and expenditure table calculation part 24 for calculating an income and expenditure table showing the future time-series change of the asset amount based on the amount of asset holdings, the expected rate of return, and the timing and payment scheduled amount of the life event; and an income and expenditure table output part 26 for outputting the calculated income and expenditure table. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2005,JPO&NCIPI

Description

[0001]
TECHNICAL FIELD OF THE INVENTION
The present invention relates to a life planning apparatus and method for calculating a balance table representing a future change in asset value, a program for causing a computer to execute the method, and a recording medium on which the program is recorded.
[0002]
[Prior art]
2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, various life planning systems for performing a life plan (life plan) over the life of an individual have been proposed, and various financial institutions and the like have provided life planning services to customers. In a typical life planning system, a current asset, income, housing purchase schedule, and the like are input, and changes in income and expenditure and savings at each age in the future are calculated. See Patent Document 1).
[0003]
[Patent Document 1]
JP-A-11-25155
[Problems to be solved by the invention]
By the way, there are various types of individual asset management means, such as deposits, stocks, bonds, foreign currency deposits, and the like, and each has a different expected rate of return and risk of loss. When an individual manages assets by using these means, it is desirable to construct an appropriate portfolio according to how much risk each individual can tolerate in asset management. Therefore, even if a financial institution provides a life planning service, if it can present a portfolio that matches the risk tolerance for asset management as an asset management method for life planning, it will be extremely useful advice for customers .
[0005]
However, conventionally, in the financial industry, life planning and portfolio proposals that consider investment risk have been recognized as completely separate services. The use of an appropriate asset management method in consideration of the degree was never considered.
[0006]
The present invention has been made in view of the above points, and an object of the present invention is to determine an asset management method suitable for a risk tolerance in asset management and perform life planning based on the asset management method. .
[0007]
[Means for Solving the Problems]
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention is a life planning device that calculates a balance table representing a transition of a future asset amount,
Input means for receiving input of basic data including information indicating a risk tolerance for asset management, information indicating an amount of owned assets, and information indicating a future life event timing and a scheduled expenditure amount related to the life event; ,
An operation method determining means for determining an asset operation method adapted to the risk tolerance,
Calculating means for calculating the income and expenditure table, based on the owned asset amount, the expected rate of return of the determined asset management method, and the expected expenditure amount of the life event,
Output means for outputting the calculated balance table.
[0008]
In the present invention, the “life event” refers to an event involving a large amount of expenditure, such as, for example, purchasing a home, driving a car, going to a school for a child, or providing financial assistance to a child for marriage.
[0009]
Further, in the life planning device of the present invention, the calculating means subtracts the expected expenditure amount at the time of the life event from a change in an asset amount calculated as an asset managed by the determined asset management method. Thus, the balance table may be calculated.
[0010]
Further, the basic data may include information indicating a reserve amount, and the calculating means may calculate the balance table assuming that the reserve amount is added to an asset.
[0011]
Further, the basic data includes information indicating a loan borrowing time, a borrowing amount, and repayment conditions, and the calculating means increases the asset amount by the borrowing amount at the loan borrowing time, After that, the income and expenditure table may be calculated as being reduced according to the repayment amount determined by the repayment condition.
[0012]
The risk tolerance is represented by a plurality of levels of indices, and the management method determining means refers to a database storing asset management methods corresponding to the risk tolerance of each stage, and refers to the asset management method. May be determined.
[0013]
Further, the asset management method may be a portfolio in which management means of a plurality of asset classes are combined. In this case, the operation method determining means calculates a portfolio according to the risk tolerance based on the risk tolerance and an expected rate of return, a standard deviation, and a correlation coefficient of an asset class constituting the portfolio. It may be good.
[0014]
BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION
FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of a life planning device 10 according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 1, the life planning device 10 is configured by a computer system including a CPU 12, a storage device 14 such as a hard disk, an input device 16 such as a keyboard, a display device 18, and the like.
[0015]
FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram of the life planning device 10. As shown in FIG. 1, the life planning device 10 includes a data input unit 20, an operation method determination unit 22, a balance table calculation unit 24, and a balance table output unit 26, a basic database 30, and an operation prediction database 32. , A portfolio database 34, and a material information database 36. Each of the functional units 20 to 26 is realized by the CPU 12 executing a program stored in the storage device 14. The databases 30 to 36 may be constructed in the storage device 14, or may be provided outside the life planning device 10 and connected to the life planning device 10 via a network.
[0016]
First, an outline of the life planning device 10 of the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. The data input unit 20 receives input of data (referred to as basic data in the present invention) that is a basis for performing a simulation calculation of life planning (that is, calculation of a balance table indicating a change in the amount of assets held by a customer in the future). Stored in the basic database 30. The management method determination unit 22 determines a portfolio of asset management methods suitable for the risk tolerance included in the basic data. In addition, the income and expenditure table calculation unit 24 performs the income and expenditure table calculation processing assuming that the assets are managed in either the portfolio of the currently held assets or the portfolio determined by the management method determination unit 22. Then, the data output unit 26 displays the calculated balance table in an appropriate form such as a graph on the display device 18 or prints out the data on a printer.
[0017]
FIG. 3 shows an example of items of basic data stored in the basic database 30. As shown in the figure, the basic data includes the customer's age, annual income, date of joining the company, industry, retirement age, retirement amount, public pension / payment start age, individual pension / payment start age, other income, Family composition, gender and date of birth of each family, planned child entry time, amount of current assets by asset class, estimated home purchase time / amount, and other life events (children's marriage funding, child entrance , Purchase of cars, renovation of home, etc.), amount of funding, funding, use of loan, loan borrowing time, borrowing amount, repayment period, borrowing rate, risk tolerance, basic cost of living, etc. Contains. Among them, the risk tolerance is an index indicating the degree of loss risk to be accepted in asset management. In the present embodiment, for example, from A (most oriented to high risk / high return) to E (most stable 5), but is not limited to this, and may be represented by four or less steps or six or more steps. Further, in the present embodiment, the pension payment amount, the reserve amount, the basic living expenses, and the like are represented by an annual amount, but are not limited thereto, and may be represented by a monthly amount.
[0018]
The operation prediction database 32 stores operation prediction data for each asset class. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 4, as investment forecast data, for example, expectations for each of six asset classes (domestic short-term financial assets, overseas short-term financial assets, domestic stocks, domestic bonds, foreign stocks, and foreign bonds) Stores the rate of return, standard deviation, and correlation coefficient between asset classes. The expected rate of return is a parameter representing a return in asset management, and the standard deviation is a parameter representing risk. These expected rate of return, standard deviation, and correlation coefficient values were obtained based on past data, but were determined using well-known methods such as the building block method, scenario method, and equilibrium return estimation method. A value may be used.
[0019]
The portfolio database 34 stores data on portfolios that match the risk tolerance. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 5, an expected rate of return and a standard deviation and a portfolio ratio (incorporation ratio of each asset class) are stored corresponding to each of the five levels of risk tolerance A to E. ing. For each portfolio, the expected rate of return and standard deviation of the portfolio calculated based on the expected rate of return, standard deviation, and correlation coefficient of the asset class and the respective inclusion ratios are values corresponding to the risk tolerance. It is calculated in advance so that That is, as shown in FIG. 6, a risk tolerance A is plotted on a curve representing an efficient frontier showing the relationship between the standard deviation (risk) and the highest expected rate of return (return) obtained under the risk. A plurality of points (five points in this example) corresponding to .about.E are taken, and the incorporation ratio of each asset class that realizes the risk and return of each of these points is calculated in advance and stored in the portfolio database 34.
[0020]
The material information database 36 stores material data such as various statistics necessary for performing life planning. Specifically, for example, as shown in FIG. 7, retirement allowance data for determining retirement allowance from the length of service, marriage fund data for determining the marriage fund for children, and basic living expenses required for retirement are determined. Basic living expenses data for the child, the entrance expenses data for determining the expenses required for the child to go to school, the pension payment data for determining the amount of the public pension based on the annual income and the like are stored.
[0021]
Next, the contents of processing executed in the life planning device 10 of the present embodiment will be described in detail.
[0022]
FIG. 8 is a flowchart illustrating a flow of processing executed by the CPU 12 of the life planning device 10 of the present embodiment to perform a life plan simulation calculation (that is, calculation of a balance table). As shown in the figure, first, in step 100, an input screen for basic data necessary for life planning is displayed.
[0023]
FIG. 9 shows an example of the basic data input screen. As shown in the figure, the basic data entry screen displays the customer's age, annual income, joining date, industry, retirement age, personal pension payment start time and its payment amount, among other basic data items. Income, family composition, gender and date of birth of each family, current assets held by asset class, scheduled home purchases and planned purchases, car purchases and planned purchases, home renovation schedules and planned purchases, funding Includes input fields for each item such as whether or not to use and reserve amount, whether or not to use each type of loan, whether or not to borrow, and amount of borrowing, borrowing time, repayment period, borrowing rate, and risk tolerance. In the example of FIG. 9, the car purchase time and the home renovation time are entered in a format of once every year, but the present invention is not limited to this, and the time may be directly specified. In addition, in the example of FIG. 9, in consideration of the fact that the amount that can be saved changes according to age, the amount of savings can be input for each age, but a fixed amount of savings is input regardless of the age. You may do so.
[0024]
Further, the basic data input screen includes two simulation execution buttons “simulation execution (without portfolio setting)” and “simulation execution (with portfolio setting)”, and when one of the buttons is clicked, In step 102, the contents entered into each of these input fields are stored in the basic database 18 as basic data.
[0025]
Note that, among the basic data, items other than the above-described input items are determined by referring to the material information database 36 based on the input data, for example, as described below.
·Severance pay:
It is determined by referring to the retirement allowance data stored in the material information database 36 based on the age, the date of joining the company, and the retirement age.
・ Amount of public pension paid and age at which the pension starts:
It is determined by referring to the pension payment amount data stored in the material information database 36 based on the annual income, the date of joining the company, and the retirement age.
・ Basic living expenses:
It is determined with reference to the basic living cost data stored in the material information database 36.
・ Schedule and cost of entering the child:
The entrance period is determined based on the date of birth of the child, and the cost is determined with reference to the entrance cost data stored in the material information database 36.
・ Scheduled time and amount of financial support for children's marriage:
Based on the date of birth of the child, the decision is made with reference to the marriage fund data stored in the material information database 36.
[0026]
Of the two simulation execution buttons included in the basic data input screen, the “simulation execution (no portfolio setting)” button is a button for performing a simulation when the asset is operated in the current portfolio. On the other hand, a “simulation execution (with portfolio setting)” button is a button for setting a recommended portfolio according to the risk tolerance and performing a simulation when the assets are managed according to the recommended portfolio.
[0027]
First, when the “execute simulation (without portfolio setting)” button is selected, in step 104, based on the basic data stored in the basic database 18, the operation is performed with the portfolio of the currently held assets as it is. A balance table is created, and in step 106, the balance table is graphically displayed on the display device 18, and printed out to a printer as necessary.
[0028]
FIG. 10 shows an example of the balance table displayed in step 106. As shown in the figure, the transition of the asset amount for each age with the horizontal axis representing the age is displayed in a graph. This income and expenditure table is based on the assumption that assets are managed at the expected rate of return stored in the investment forecast database 32 while maintaining the current portfolio. The estimated expenditures are to be spent at the scheduled time, when the child is expected to be married, when the car is scheduled to be purchased, and when the house is to be renovated. After retirement, the sum of the pension (the sum of the public pension and the individual pension) and other income is calculated as income and basic living expenses as expenditure, and the shortfall in income for expenditure is calculated as if it were consumed from financial assets.
[0029]
In the example shown in the figure, the assets are reduced by the amount obtained by subtracting the loan amount from the purchase amount after purchasing the house at the age of 40 (that is, the down payment). Thereafter, at the ages of 42, 45, and 48, wealth decreased due to the expenditure of the child, and at the age of 57, wealth decreased due to the expenditure of the child's marriage fund. Then, after retirement at the age of 60 and the assets increase by the retirement allowance, the assets after the retirement such as pensions consume the assets that cannot cover the basic living expenses, and the assets decrease.
[0030]
A specific formula for calculating the balance table is as follows, where the asset at the age of x is Q [x] yen. In the following formula, the annual repayment amount of the loan is calculated based on the borrowing amount, the borrowing rate, and the repayment period.
When x ≦ retirement age Q [x] = (amount of assets at age x when assets are managed at the expected rate of return of current portfolio) − (cumulative amount of life event expenditure up to x years) + (x Cumulative funded amount when the funded amount up to age is managed at the expected rate of return of the current portfolio) + (cumulative amount of loan borrowed by age x)-(cumulative amount of loan repayment borrowed by age x)
In the case of x> retirement age Q [x] = (amount of assets at the age of x when assets at the time of retirement are managed at the expected rate of return of the current portfolio) + (retirement amount) + (public until the age of x) Cumulative amount of pension) + (cumulative amount of individual pension until age x)-(cumulative amount of loan repayment until age x after retirement)-(cumulative amount of basic living expenses after retirement)
[0031]
If the “execute simulation (with portfolio setting)” button is selected on the basic data input screen, the portfolio corresponding to the risk tolerance is read out at step 108 and set as a recommended portfolio. Then, in step 110, assuming that the asset is managed at the expected rate of return of the recommended portfolio, the asset at the age of x is defined as Q [x] yen, and the income and expenditure table is calculated according to the following equation.
In the case of x ≦ retirement age Q [x] = (the asset amount at the age of x when the asset is managed at the expected rate of return of the recommended portfolio) − (cumulative amount of life event expenditure up to the age of x) + (x age Cumulative amount when the funded amount up to the above is operated at the expected rate of return of the recommended portfolio) + (cumulative amount of loans borrowed by age x)-(cumulative amount of repayment amount of loans borrowed by age x)
In the case of x> retirement age Q [x] = (amount of assets at age x when assets at retirement age are managed at the expected rate of return of the recommended portfolio) + (retirement amount) + (public pension up to x years old) + (Cumulative amount of individual pension until age x)-(cumulative amount of basic living expenses until age x)
[0032]
Further, based on the standard deviation of the recommended portfolio, the upper limit value Q _HIGH [x] and the lower limit value Q _LOW [x] of the financial asset Q [x] when the statistical risk rate is set to, for example, 5% are calculated. You.
[0033]
The balance table thus calculated is displayed in a graph at step 110 as shown in FIG. As shown in the figure, in addition to the transition of the financial asset Q [x] calculated based on the expected rate of return of the recommended portfolio, the upper limit value Q _{HIGH of} the asset Q [x] calculated based on the risk of the recommended portfolio [X] and the lower limit value Q _LOW [x] are displayed by, for example, broken lines. Also, the ratio of each asset class in the recommended portfolio is displayed.
[0034]
A “re-simulation” button is provided on the graph display screen of the balance table shown in FIGS. 10 and 11, and when this button is selected, in step 114, as shown in FIG. A data re-input screen is displayed for re-inputting the reserve amount, the loan borrowing time / borrowing amount / repayment period / borrowing rate, and the risk tolerance. This data re-input screen also includes two simulation execution buttons, “simulation execution (without portfolio setting)” and “simulation execution (with portfolio setting)”. Is stored in the basic database 30, and the processing of step 104 or step 108 is executed in the same manner as described above, depending on which button is selected.
[0035]
FIG. 13 shows a typical procedure for simulating a customer's life plan using the life planning device 10. As shown in the figure, as basic data, basic data in which the use of reserve is "none" is input (step 200), and a "simulation execution (no portfolio setting)" button is selected to calculate a balance table. (Step 202). That is, first, a balance table in a case where all the income is consumed as living funds without using the reserve is calculated. The customer refers to this balance table to check the change in assets. If there is no shortage of assets (step 204), the process ends because there is no need to continue the life plan simulation. On the other hand, if there is a shortage of assets, enter the amount of reserve set in consideration of income etc. on the data re-entry screen, and if necessary, set the loan Enter the borrowing amount, repayment period, etc. Further, the risk tolerance is changed as necessary (S204 → S206). Then, the “execute simulation (with portfolio setting)” button is selected, and the balance table is recalculated (S208). Thereafter, until the optimum life plan for the customer is found (step 210), the data correction and the calculation of the balance table are repeated.
[0036]
As described above, the life planning device 10 of the present embodiment can determine an asset management portfolio suitable for an individual's risk tolerance, and calculate a balance table when assets held in the portfolio are managed. . Therefore, according to the present embodiment, the asset management method according to the risk tolerance and the life plan can be proposed to the customer together, so that the customer can determine his / her own life plan and risk tolerance. It is possible to find asset management methods that are compatible with both.
[0037]
In the present embodiment, the funding amount is input, and the income and expenditure table is calculated on the assumption that the assets increase by the funding amount. Generally, it is easy to determine relatively accurately how much funding is possible for an individual, so that the funding amount can be input without resistance. On the other hand, it is conceivable to enter living expenses instead of reserves, but it is difficult to judge the amount of living expenses immediately, and in order to create a balance table, it is necessary to enter future income forecasts. Since it is necessary, it becomes difficult to input data. Therefore, in this embodiment, by inputting the reserve amount that is easy for the individual to judge, data input becomes easy, and the balance table can be calculated more accurately.
[0038]
Further, in the life planning device 10 of the present embodiment, it is also possible to input data relating to a loan as basic data and calculate a balance table reflecting the borrowed amount and the repaid amount of the loan. Therefore, not only the asset management method but also an appropriate loan usage method can be proposed to the customer.
[0039]
In the above embodiment, the risk tolerance is represented by a plurality of levels of indices, and the portfolio corresponding to the risk tolerance of each stage is stored in the portfolio database 34, and the risk tolerance included in the basic data is stored. The portfolio is read out and set as a recommended portfolio. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and a portfolio corresponding to the input risk tolerance may be calculated each time based on an efficient frontier curve as shown in FIG. That is, in the above embodiment, the points corresponding to the respective risk tolerances were previously taken on the curve of the efficient frontier, and the portfolio for realizing the risk and the return of each point was calculated and stored. However, the present invention is not limited to this, and assuming that any point on the curve of the efficient frontier can be taken according to the risk tolerance, a portfolio for realizing the risk and return at that point may be calculated each time.
[0040]
In the above-described embodiment, the recommended portfolio according to the risk tolerance is presented. However, as a more specific asset management method, a financial product such as an investment trust may be proposed. That is, for each type of financial product, data representing the asset class and the performance of the investment is prepared, and an optimal financial product suitable for the recommended portfolio is presented.
[0041]
In the above embodiment, the risk tolerance of the customer is directly input. However, the present invention is not limited to this. For example, a questionnaire on investment may be conducted for the customer, and the risk tolerance may be determined based on the result of the questionnaire. It may be. In this case, the contents of the questionnaire include, for example, annual income, assets, investment experience of stocks, bonds, etc., financial knowledge, and orientation regarding investment risk (whether stability is preferred or high risk high return is preferred).
[0042]
Note that the life planning device of the present invention is configured as a server accessible via a network such as the Internet, and when a customer accesses the life planning device from a terminal and inputs basic data, the calculation result of the balance table is transmitted to the customer terminal. It may be configured to be transmitted. A configuration in which the input of the basic data and the output of the balance table are performed via the network as described above is also included in the scope of the present invention.
[0043]
【The invention's effect】
ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, the asset management method suitable for the risk tolerance for asset management can be determined, and life planning can be performed based on the asset management method.
[Brief description of the drawings]
FIG. 1 is a configuration diagram of a life planning device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram of the life planning device of the present embodiment.
FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of items of basic data stored in a basic database in the embodiment.
FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of operation prediction data stored in an operation prediction database in the present embodiment.
FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of data stored in a portfolio database in the embodiment.
FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an efficient frontier.
FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of data stored in a material information database in the embodiment.
FIG. 8 is a flowchart illustrating a flow of processing executed to perform a life plan simulation calculation in the life planning device of the present embodiment.
FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of a basic data input screen.
FIG. 10 is a diagram showing a first example of a balance table displayed as a graph.
FIG. 11 is a diagram showing a second example of the balance table displayed as a graph.
FIG. 12 is a diagram showing an example of a data re-input screen.
FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing a typical procedure for simulating a life plan using the life planning device of the present embodiment.
[Explanation of symbols]
10 Life planning device 12 CPU
14 storage device 16 input device 18 display device 20 data input unit 22 operation method determination unit 24 balance table calculation unit 26 balance table output unit 30 basic database 32 operation prediction database 34 portfolio database 36 document information database

Claims (10)

A life planning device that calculates a balance table representing a future change in asset value,
Input means for receiving input of basic data including information indicating a risk tolerance for asset management, information indicating an amount of owned assets, and information indicating a future life event timing and a scheduled expenditure amount related to the life event; ,
An operation method determining means for determining an asset operation method adapted to the risk tolerance,
Calculating means for calculating the income and expenditure table, based on the owned asset amount, the expected rate of return of the determined asset management method, and the expected expenditure amount of the life event,
Output means for outputting the calculated balance table. The calculating means calculates the income and expenditure table by subtracting the expected amount of expenditure at the time of the life event from a change in the amount of the asset calculated as if the asset is managed by the determined asset management method. The life planning device according to claim 1, wherein: The basic data includes information representing a reserve amount,
The life planning apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the calculation unit calculates the balance table assuming that the reserve amount is added to an asset amount. The basic data includes information representing a loan borrowing time, a loan amount, and a repayment condition,
The calculating means calculates the balance table assuming that the asset amount increases by the borrowed amount at the time of borrowing the loan, and decreases after the borrowing time of the loan according to the repayment amount determined by the repayment conditions. The life planning device according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein The risk tolerance is represented by a multi-step indicator,
5. The asset management method according to claim 1, wherein the asset management method determining unit determines the asset management method by referring to a database that stores an asset management method corresponding to the risk tolerance at each stage. 6. The life planning device according to claim 1. The life planning device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the asset management method is a portfolio that combines management means of a plurality of asset classes. The operation method determining means calculates a portfolio according to the risk tolerance based on the risk tolerance and an expected rate of return, a standard deviation, and a correlation coefficient of an asset class constituting the portfolio. The life planning device according to claim 6, wherein A life planning method for calculating a balance table representing a change in a future asset value, wherein the computer comprises:
An input step of receiving basic data including information representing the risk tolerance for asset management, information representing the amount of owned assets, and future expenditure information relating to the timing of the future life event and the life event;
An operation method determining step of determining an asset management method adapted to the risk tolerance,
A calculation step of calculating the income and expenditure table based on the amount of owned assets, the expected rate of return of the determined asset management method, and the expected expenditure amount of the life event,
Outputting the calculated balance table. A program for causing a computer to execute the method according to claim 7. A recording medium on which the program according to claim 8 is recorded.

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