JP2004164206A - Real estate investment estimation sensitivity analysis system and recording medium - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To visually grasp the results of real estate investment analyses by integrating the elements that are indispensable for grasping future profits and risks. <P>SOLUTION: This system includes an investment information setting means for setting investment information characteristic of each investment choice such as rents; a computing means for computing data on each index constituting a trial balance of investment returns; a means for varying and inputting the settings of element variables used in computations; and a means for displaying data on each index subjected to sensitivity analysis as the trial balance is varied according to the element variables. Data on the indexes such as cash flow corresponding to the designated element variable are calculated to display the sensitivity analysis. The data on each index subjected to the sensitivity analysis are output yearly in the form of a list. Further, investment costs can be set in the form of numerical inputs as one of the element variables to thereby conduct the sensitivity analysis and display the results. It is possible to grasp variations in the sensitivity of elements for real estate investments, such as NPV and IRR as indexes of sensitivity analysis data. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2004,JPO

Description

[0001]
TECHNICAL FIELD OF THE INVENTION
The present invention calculates a profit expected at the time of real estate investment, and additionally sets a factor variable related to a change in the profit, thereby realizing a sensitivity analysis system and a function of the system on a computer. And a recording medium storing the program.
[0002]
[Prior art]
Conventionally, various concepts such as a net present value (NPV) and an internal rate of return (IRR) for real estate investment have been proposed, and a trial balance for displaying future profitability corresponding to each investment object is mainly created by a computer. There is a system.
[0003]
In addition, NPV and the like, which have become widespread recently, can be easily calculated with spreadsheet software of a personal computer, and have become familiar. Furthermore, it is also known to perform a sensitivity analysis on how to improve each of the factors that contribute to the cash flow and the factors that have a negative effect.
[0004]
However, those factors are dealt with individually, that is, the future investment risk and investment effect that summarizes NPV, IRR, sensitivity analysis (analyzing profitability by changing the element variables that are expected to fluctuate), etc. The system configuration for clearly and easily comprehending the information has not been reached.
[0005]
[Problems to be solved by the invention]
Therefore, the object of the present invention is to integrate the indispensable elements for realizing future profits and risks for real estate investment such as trial balance, cost of capital, NPV, IRR, sensitivity analysis, etc. The present invention provides a new real estate investment estimation sensitivity analysis system for displaying the information so as to be visually comprehensible, and a recording medium for executing the program.
[0006]
Means for Solving the Problems and Effects of the Invention
In order to solve the above problems, the real estate investment trial estimation sensitivity analysis system of the present invention is information necessary for calculating investment income in real estate investment, and includes investment information unique to each investment object such as rent and business expenses. Investment information setting means for setting
Arithmetic processing means for calculating data of each index constituting the investment return trial balance corresponding to individual investment information;
Further, an element variable setting input means for changing and inputting the setting of the element variable used in the arithmetic processing,
Means for displaying the data of each indicator subjected to sensitivity analysis by varying the investment return trial balance based on the element variables changed by the input,
With
The present invention is characterized in that sensitivity analysis is displayed by calculating data of each index, such as a cash flow, corresponding to a specified element variable for each investment target set by the investment information setting means.
[0007]
Specifically, each index data subjected to sensitivity analysis based on the input element variables may be configured to be output in the form of a list having items for displaying each index data for each year. it can.
[0008]
Further, specifically, the element variables may include at least one of four of vacancy rates, interest rates, general sales and administrative expenses, and compulsory expenses such as property tax.
[0009]
In a real estate trial balance, it is important to analyze the vacancy rate of the market for the set rent, instead of changing the rent setting. Then, it is important to clarify the vacancy rate in the current situation and to grasp how the profitability changes depending on the vacancy rate in the future.
[0010]
Regarding interest rates, in real estate investment, it is very important to have a strategy for fluctuations in interest rates.
[0011]
In addition, fluctuations in compulsory expenses such as general selling, general and administrative expenses and property taxes are related to changes in profits.
[0012]
According to the above configuration, it is possible to grasp the investment target risk by extracting the four elements of the vacancy rate, the interest rate paid, the general sales management cost, and the compulsory expense, and observing the profitability by the fluctuation.
[0013]
That is, it is possible to provide a system that can change and input these element variables, change the trial balance for the changed element variables, and output the result as a list for each year. It is easy to grasp visually and it is effective.
[0014]
Further, as a specific invention, the element variable is a set magnification input as a magnification of the specified value within a predetermined variable range with respect to a predetermined value corresponding to a predetermined period. It is possible to appropriately set the index by using the set magnification that is input, and the index of the sensitivity analysis result can be calculated by changing the specified value in each specified period.
[0015]
That is, for example, a system in which a specified period is set as a term such as one year or five years, and an element variable for each period is set by inputting a scaling factor with respect to a specified value, and a sensitivity analysis can be performed.
[0016]
As a specific input form, the input area for setting the element variables is a collective magnification input area in which a collective magnification for each predetermined value predetermined for each specified period is input. It is also possible to configure a plurality of single magnification input areas in which a single magnification for each period with respect to each predetermined value predetermined for each predetermined period is input.
[0017]
According to the above configuration, it is possible to set the predetermined value for each period by a collective magnification, or to freely set the magnification for each period. As a result, a more detailed real estate investment analysis becomes possible, and the system can be highly functional.
[0018]
Further, another aspect of the present invention is that the capital cost, which is one of the indexes after the sensitivity analysis and indicates the cost of raising capital required for real estate investment, can be set as a numerical value as one of the element variables. A sensitivity analysis is performed on the set capital cost, and the result is displayed as a sensitivity analysis result.
[0019]
In other words, the capital cost can be freely set by the person who makes the real estate investment estimation, and thereby, the factors of the real estate investment such as NPV (details will be described later) and IRR (details will be described later), which are indicators of the sensitivity analysis data, can be set. The sensitivity fluctuation can be seen.
[0020]
More specifically, in this system, each of the indicators after the sensitivity analysis includes a marginal DCR indicating the ability to repay the borrowing for the income calculated based on the set rent at a 100% occupancy rate (0% vacancy rate) and a real occupancy rate. Based DCR.
[0021]
Further, each of the indicators after the sensitivity analysis includes items of a net present value (NPV) and an internal rate of return (IRR) for evaluating the present value of the future profit obtained by the investment business. It can be configured as follows.
[0022]
Here, the net present value (NPV) and the internal rate of return (IRR) will be briefly described. First, the net present value (NPV) is the amount obtained by subtracting the initial investment amount from the total period of the amount obtained by discounting the cash flow for each fiscal year by the investment return rate (discount rate) and converting it to the present value. In terms of the formula, net present value (NPV) = {cf1 / (1 + r)} + {cf2 / (1 + r) ² } + ...... + {Cfn + n asset price in fiscal year / (1 + r) ⁿ } -IV ... ▲ Equation (1) is obtained. Here, cf1 is the cash flow for the first year, cf2 is the cash flow for the second year, cfn is the cash flow for the nth year, r is the discount rate, and IV is the investment amount for the first year. That is, if the net present value NPV> 0, the investment is eligible, and if NPV <0, the investment is ineligible.
[0023]
The internal rate of return (IRR) is simply the rate of return where the sum of the present value of the returns from the investment is equal to the investment amount. That is, the above-mentioned r for setting the net present value (NPV) to 0 is called an internal rate of return. Shows what percentage of the total business fund (investment amount) invested in the real estate investment was managed. The capital cost is the procurement cost of financing the real estate investment business, while the IRR is the actual return on investment.
[0024]
That is, with the above system configuration, the sensitivity analysis table can compare the fluctuation between the marginal DCR based on the marginal rent and the real DCR. Further, NPV and IRR can be calculated based on the capital cost obtained by averaging the funding rate. Ultimately, it is important to understand how the analysis indicators that make these investment decisions change with respect to the sensitivity of the element variables. ing.
[0025]
The point of the present invention is that the investment income trial balance, capital cost, net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and sensitivity analysis based on element variables are integrated and applied as real estate investment analysis.
[0026]
The functions of the real estate investment trial estimation sensitivity analysis system of the present invention can be realized on a computer by a program. Specifically, a program for causing a computer to function as the above-described various means constituting the system can be recorded on a recording medium in a computer-readable form. By installing the program recorded on such a recording medium into a computer, the function of the real estate investment estimation sensitivity analysis system of the present invention can be easily given to this. The recording medium is, for example, a CD-ROM, a flexible disk, a magneto-optical disk, an IC card, or the like.
[0027]
BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION
Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to examples shown in the drawings.
[0028]
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a real estate investment estimation sensitivity analysis system (hereinafter, also simply referred to as a system) 1. The system 1 is configured as a computer, includes an I / O port 11, and includes a CPU 12, a ROM 13, a RAM 14, a monitor control unit 20, a fixed storage device 22 including a hard disk drive and the like, and a CD-ROM as a recording medium. A CD-ROM drive 4 for reading, a keyboard 2, a mouse 3 (may be another pointing device), a printer 6, and the like are connected. A monitor 21 is connected to the monitor control unit 20.
[0029]
The fixed storage device 22 includes an application program (hereinafter simply referred to as an application) 22b for realizing the functions of the real estate investment estimation sensitivity analysis system 1 on a computer, and an operating system program (hereinafter referred to as an operating system program for forming the operating environment on the computer). OS) 22a and a database 22c used for various processes for investment adequacy diagnosis are stored. The programs 22a and 22b and the database 22c are supplied in the form of being recorded on a CD-ROM 5 as a recording medium, for example, set in the CD-ROM drive 4, and a predetermined installation program (not shown) by the CPU 12. ) Is activated to be installed in the fixed storage device 22. The ROM 13 stores various basic programs for controlling hardware of the computer. Further, a work area for each program stored in the fixed storage device 22 and the ROM 13 is formed in the RAM 14.
[0030]
The above-mentioned computer may be configured as, for example, a desktop computer. However, if a portable computer such as a notebook personal computer or a laptop personal computer using a battery or the like as a power supply unit is used, the system 1 may be configured as a portable computer. You can also.
[0031]
FIG. 2 shows an example of allocation of various memories in the RAM 14. Here, a program work area 14a, an investment information memory 14b, a trial balance data memory 14c, an element variable memory 14d, a sensitivity analysis result memory 14e, and the like are formed. The investment information memory 14b stores investment information unique to an investment target, that is, information such as general sales management expenses and rent, which is input by an investor. The trial balance data memory 14c stores marginal rents, marginal common expenses, vacancy rates, real rents, general sales management expenses, ordinary profits, non-operating income, non-operating expenses, which indicate the maximum rent calculated at the occupancy rate of 100%. Data such as expenditure is assigned. The element variable memory 14d is assigned a vacancy rate (a set magnification for determining the vacancy rate) and a payment rate (a set magnification for determining the payment rate). In addition, general selling, general and administrative expenses and property taxes are allocated to data for the set multiplication rate for each of the four periods, from 1 to 5 years, 6 to 10 years, 11 to 20 years, and 20 years or later. Can be The sensitivity analysis result memory 14e is assigned data such as actual income, expenditure, marginal DCR, DCR, NPV, IRR, cash flow, ordinary profit, etc. calculated (sensitivity analyzed) based on the input element variables.
[0032]
Hereinafter, the operation of the system 1 of FIG. 1 will be described for each function. First, when the application program 22b is started, an investment information input screen 100 as shown in FIG. 3 is displayed on the monitor 21 (FIG. 1). FIG. 3 shows an example of investment in a rental condominium. In this input screen 100, investment information necessary to create a trial investment balance of an investment target property, for example, rent, common service expense, and expense ( Input tags 101 to 107 are formed to enable input of basic investment information such as general sales management costs, land purchase prices, construction costs, business expenses, borrowings, and the like. The investor can input necessary data from the keyboard 2 by clicking a click button (not shown) of an input tag (input item) to be input by operating the mouse 3.
[0033]
When the input for each of the input items is completed, by clicking the “OK” click button at the lower right of the screen, the processing shifts to the calculation processing of the investment return trial calculation table for the input investment information.
[0034]
FIG. 4A shows an example of a real estate investment income trial calculation table output to the monitor 21 after the arithmetic processing. As shown in FIG. 4 (b), the total project cost is 84.744 million yen, the borrowing is 400 million yen, the interest rate is 4.00%, and the repayment period is 25 years, as shown in FIG. 4 (b). This is a trial calculation of investment income for condominiums. As shown in the figure, data from 1 to 10 years after the trial calculation for each item is displayed for each year. Here, the marginal rent (401) indicating the maximum rent obtained when the vacancy rate is 0% (in other words, the occupancy rate is 100%) is displayed. The vacancy rate (403) is assumed to be 5% after 1 to 5 years and 10% after 6 to 10 years. The general sales and administrative expenses (406) include general administrative expenses and property taxes. The net operating profit (408) indicates a profit obtained by subtracting the operating expenditure (general sales and administrative expenses (406)) from the operating income (total income (405)), which is the rent income. The net operating profit (408) divided by the real estate investment property purchase amount (total operating cost) is the net operating profit ratio (cap rate) (409).
[0035]
Ordinary income (414) is calculated by adding non-operating income (interest income such as cash reserves and internal retained earnings) (410) to net operating income (408) and non-operating expenses (depreciation, borrowing interest, etc.) (413) is subtracted. The amount obtained by adding the depreciation (412) to the ordinary profit (414) is generally called cash flow (CF) (416).
[0036]
In addition, items such as cash flow total (417), CF yield (418), borrowing balance (420), remaining cash on hand (421), and total cash on hand (422) are assigned to this profit table.
[0037]
Next, FIG. 5 shows setting of element variables for performing a sensitivity analysis on the trial calculation table of FIG. There are four element variables: vacancy rate (501), interest rate (502), general sales and administrative expenses (503), and property tax (504). Here, the vacancy rate (501) is 5% after 1 to 5 years, 10% after 6 to 10 years, 20% after 11 to 20 years, and 20% after 21 years when the set magnification is 1. The standard is set to 30%. Factors that increase the vacancy rate include the age of the building, surrounding rents, deterioration of buildings, and obsolescence of projects. A vacancy rate of 5% indicates substantial occupancy, and in an actual rental operation, a vacancy rate of 5% or less is awaiting cancellation. The variable magnification of the set magnification is 0.1 to 4. The setting of the vacancy rate has a significant effect on profitability and cash flow, and by fluctuating this volatility, it will also be possible to grasp future profits and risks.
[0038]
Subsequently, the interest rate (interest) (502) has a reference value of 4%, and a double interest rate is set in FIG. 5, so the interest rate is calculated as 8% which is twice the reference value. Is done. Naturally, in real estate investment, it is very important to have a strategy for changing interest rates.
[0039]
For general selling and administrative expenses (503) and property tax (504), multiples can be set in four ranges: 1-5 years later, 6-10 years later, 11-20 years later, and 21 years later. . The variable magnification of the set magnification is both in the range of 0.1 to 2. It is assumed that the general sales management cost (503) in FIG. 5 has increased by a factor of 1 after 1 to 5 years and by a factor of 1.5 since 6 years. On the other hand, it is assumed that the property tax (504) is 1 times after 1 to 5 years, 1.5 times after 6 to 10 years, and 1 time again after 11 years. Property tax is a variable in which land price fluctuations affect direct investment, and it is becoming a very heavy tax cost, but at the same time, the fluctuations are difficult to predict. It is necessary to extract these factors and understand the risks.
[0040]
FIG. 6 shows a sensitivity analysis table obtained by analyzing the investment return trial calculation table of FIG. 4 based on the setting of the element variables shown in FIG. 5 using spreadsheet software. Here, since the set magnification of the vacancy rate is 1, the real income (601) corresponds to the total income (405) of FIG. 4 (that is, it has the same value). The net operating balance (603) is obtained by subtracting the expenditure (602) from the real income (601). Further, respective items of marginal DCR (604), DCR (605), total balance (606), ordinary profit (607), total net profit (608), and cash flow (609) are displayed for each fiscal year. The compound interest present rate (610) is set to 4%, the present value (611) obtained by discounting (converted) the present value from the cash flow, the present value (612), and the net present value NPV (613). ), Capital cost (614), internal rate of return IRR (615), tax payment (616), repayment of borrowed principal (617), remaining funds (618), total remaining funds (619), and the like. On the other hand, FIG. 5 assumes that the sensitivity setting of general SG & A expenses and property tax has increased 1.5 times since 6 years. As a result, it can be seen in FIG. 6 that the cash flow in the 6th year sharply deteriorates. .
[0041]
On the other hand, the capital cost in FIG. 6 is set to 4%, but the index may be freely set as an element variable for the sensitivity analysis described above. In this case, in FIG. 5, an item for directly inputting the capital cost value may be separately provided, or a screen for changing the capital cost value may be changed from FIG. 6 so that direct input is possible. Since the capital cost can be freely set, the sensitivity analysis result of FIG. 6 also changes at any time, and it becomes possible to see fluctuations in NPV, IRR, etc. with respect to the capital cost.
[0042]
Next, each processing flow of the system of the present invention will be described more specifically with reference to the flowcharts shown in FIGS. FIG. 7 shows an investment information input / take-in routine, which is taken into the investment information memory 14b of the real estate investment estimation sensitivity analysis system 1 by being input from, for example, the keyboard 2 of the terminal. In step S1 (hereinafter, also simply referred to as S1), an investment information input screen as shown in FIG. 3 is displayed. In S2, rent, common service cost, general sales management cost, land purchase price, etc., are specific to the investment object. Investment information is input. Then, in S3, the investment information is stored in the investment information memory 14b of FIG.
[0043]
Next, FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing creation / display of the investment return trial calculation table for the input investment information. As described above, when the investment information is input, the arithmetic processing is performed on each item of the trial balance based on the investment information in A1, and the data calculated in each item of the trial balance is performed in A2. Assign. Then, at A3, the investment return trial calculation table as shown in FIG. 4 is displayed on the monitor 21 of FIG.
[0044]
Next, FIG. 9 shows an example of a flowchart when the sensitivity analysis is performed by setting the element variables after creating and displaying the investment trial calculation analysis table. First, at B1, a sensitivity setting screen for element variables is displayed. The details of the setting are described in FIG. At B2, an element variable is input, and then, at B3, an operation is performed on the input value of the element variable. This is calculated with reference to the data of the investment trial analysis table of FIG. After the calculation, the sensitivity analysis data is assigned to each item of the sensitivity analysis table in B4. Then, a sensitivity analysis table is displayed at B5 in the form shown in FIG. Here, as shown in step B6, the investment trial calculation analysis table and the sensitivity analysis table may be displayed together for easy comparison.
[0045]
In FIG. 6, many items are displayed in a list at a time. However, the number of items may be reduced and displayed as a simplified version. In this case, for example, the present value may be configured as a required item within five items including cash flow, NPV, and the like.
[0046]
Next, each component of the real estate investment estimation sensitivity analysis system 1 shown in FIG. 1 is configured as a somewhat closed system including a computer and peripheral devices directly connected to the computer. It is also possible to disperse and arrange the host device connected via a communication network such as the Internet and the terminals connected thereto. FIG. 10 shows an example.
[0047]
That is, the real estate investment estimation sensitivity analysis system 1 having this configuration includes a communication network 702 such as the Internet, a host device 700 connected thereto via a modem 701 as a transmission / reception unit, and a modem 752 also as a transmission / reception unit. And a plurality of terminals 703 connected to each other. Hereinafter, description of the same components as those in FIG. 1 will be omitted, and only different points will be mainly described.
[0048]
First, the main part of the host device 700 is configured almost in the same way as the computer in FIG. 1, and the hard disk drive 810 as a fixed storage device stores the same programs and databases as those in the system 1 in FIG. . However, the difference from the apparatus of FIG. 1 is that information (data) necessary for each processing by a user (here, an investor) is input from a terminal 703 connected via a communication network 702. Each of the terminals 703 is configured as a computer including an I / O port 751 and a CPU 754, a ROM 755, and a RAM 756 connected to the I / O port 751, and the keyboard 806 and the mouse 807 as the input means are connected to the I / O port 751. Have been. Further, a printer 812 and a monitor 813 as output means are also connected to the I / O port 751.
[0049]
Information input from the keyboard 806 or the mouse 807 on the terminal 703 side (that is, each information exemplified by 101 to 107 in FIG. 3) is transmitted to the host device 700 via the communication network 702, where the application The processes shown in FIGS. 7 to 9 and the like by the program (similar to FIG. 1) are executed. Then, the result of the processing (for example, step A3 in FIG. 8 and B5 to B6 in FIG. 9) is output to the printer 812 to the monitor 813 of the terminal 703 accessed via the communication network 702. It is convenient to provide the terminal 703 with a hard disk drive 753 for downloading the result of the above processing.
[0050]
In FIG. 5 according to the present embodiment in which the setting mode of the element variables is set, one set value for the vacancy rate and the interest rate is input to the preset rate every five years. It is configured as an input area, and for the general selling and administrative expenses and the property tax, the rate for each period can be input to a single rate input area divided in advance for every five years. However, the present invention is not limited to this embodiment. For example, the division period may be set every year, and a single magnification input area in which a vacancy rate / interest rate can be input every predetermined period may be formed. It is good. Instead of setting the magnification, it is also possible to directly input a value.
[0051]
The real estate investment estimation sensitivity analysis system of the present invention has been described above in detail with reference to the drawings. According to this system, by inputting investment information, a real estate investment income trial balance for the investment is displayed, and further, four factors that cause a change in income (in this case, vacancy rate, interest rate paid, general selling, general and administrative expenses)・ Sensitivity analysis is performed by setting the compulsory expenses (property tax) by the investor himself, and as a result, it is possible to visually understand how the profit varies with the set element variables by displaying the list It can be easily presented. If capital cost is taken as another factor variable, changes in NPV, IRR, etc. can be seen, that is, profits and risks to investment can be easily and clearly grasped and used for profitable investment. It is possible.
[Brief description of the drawings]
FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an example of an electrical configuration of a real estate investment sensitivity analysis system of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is an explanatory diagram showing a memory configuration in a RAM in the configuration of FIG. 1;
FIG. 3 is a view showing an example of a data input screen for investment information.
FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a display example of a real estate investment income trial balance.
FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of sensitivity setting of an element variable.
FIG. 6 is a sensitivity analysis table showing results of performing a sensitivity analysis on the trial calculation table of FIG. 4 based on the element variables shown in FIG. 5;
FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing an example of an investment information input and capture routine.
FIG. 8 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a routine for creating and displaying a trial investment balance.
FIG. 9 is a flowchart illustrating an example of a sensitivity analysis routine.
FIG. 10 is a block diagram showing an example of a hardware configuration of a real estate investment trial estimation sensitivity analysis system using a communication network.
[Explanation of symbols]
1 Real estate investment sensitivity analysis system 2 Keyboard (investment information setting means, element variable input means)
3 mouse (investment information setting means, element variable input means)
5 CD-ROM (recording medium)
6 Printer

Claims (19)

Investment information setting means for setting investment information specific to each investment object, such as rent and business expenses, which is information necessary for calculating investment returns in real estate investment;
Arithmetic processing means for calculating data of each index constituting the investment return trial balance corresponding to individual investment information;
Further, an element variable setting input means for changing and inputting the setting of the element variable used in the arithmetic processing,
Means for displaying the data of each indicator subjected to sensitivity analysis by varying the investment return trial balance based on the element variables changed by the input,
With
Real estate investment trial sensitivity analysis, wherein data of each index such as a cash flow corresponding to a specified element variable is calculated for each investment target set by the investment information setting means and a sensitivity analysis result is displayed. system. 2. The real estate investment estimation sensitivity according to claim 1, wherein each index data subjected to sensitivity analysis based on the input element variables is output in the form of a list having items for displaying each index data for each fiscal year. Analysis system. 3. The real estate investment estimation sensitivity analysis system according to claim 1, wherein the element variables include at least one of four of a vacancy rate, an interest rate paid, a general selling and managing cost, and compulsory expenses such as property tax. The element variable can be appropriately set using a set magnification input as a magnification of the specified value within a predetermined variable range with respect to a predetermined value corresponding to a predetermined period, 4. The real estate investment trial sensitivity analysis system according to claim 3, wherein each index of the sensitivity analysis result is calculated by changing a specified value of each specified period at the input set magnification. The vacancy rate, which is one of the element variables, is input as a magnification of the specified vacancy rate within a predetermined variable range with respect to a predetermined vacancy rate corresponding to a predetermined period. It can be appropriately set using a set magnification, and calculates each index of the sensitivity analysis result by a value obtained by multiplying the value of the input set magnification by a specified vacancy rate of each specified period. The real estate investment estimation sensitivity analysis system according to claim 3. The setting of the element variable can be appropriately set using a set magnification input as a magnification of the reference value with respect to a predetermined reference value corresponding to a prescribed period, and the magnification is set for each prescribed period. 4. The real estate investment trial estimation sensitivity analysis system according to claim 3, wherein each of them is changed and input. The means for changing and inputting the setting of the element variable is, for each reference value stored in the real estate investment sensitivity analysis system, a setting magnification of an element variable to be changed within a specified setting magnification is input. The real estate investment sensitivity analysis system according to any one of claims 1 to 6, further comprising means for displaying respective input areas for real estate investment. 8. The real estate investment according to claim 7, wherein the input area for setting the element variables includes a collective magnification input area in which a collective magnification for each predetermined value predetermined for each predetermined period is input. Sensitivity analysis system. The input area for setting the element variable includes a plurality of single magnification input areas into which a single magnification for each period with respect to each predetermined value predetermined for each predetermined period is input. 9. The real estate investment estimation sensitivity analysis system according to claim 7 or 8. The input areas corresponding to the general SG & A expenses and the property tax of the element variables are defined as a single rate input area 1 to 5 years after the start of investment, a single rate input area 6 to 10 years after, 10. The real estate investment sensitivity analysis system according to claim 9, comprising four single magnification input areas: a single magnification input area after 20 years and a single magnification input area after 21 years. Each of the indicators after the sensitivity analysis includes items of a marginal DCR indicating a repayment capacity of borrowing with respect to the income calculated based on a set rent at a 100% occupancy rate (0% vacancy rate) and a DCR based on a real occupancy rate. The real estate investment trial estimation sensitivity analysis system according to any one of claims 1 to 10, characterized in that: Each of the indicators after the sensitivity analysis includes items of a net present value (NPV) and an internal rate of return (IRR) for evaluating the present value of the future profit obtained by the investment business. The real estate investment trial estimation sensitivity analysis system according to any one of claims 1 to 11. The capital cost, which is one of the indicators after the sensitivity analysis and indicates the cost of raising capital required for real estate investment, can be set as a numerical value as one of the element variables, and is set to the input and set capital cost. The sensitivity analysis system according to any one of claims 1 to 12, wherein the sensitivity analysis is performed on the sensitivity analysis and the result is displayed as a sensitivity analysis result. The results of the sensitivity analysis are as follows: DCR, cumulative income, ordinary income, cumulative net income, cash flow, compound interest present rate, present value, total present value, NPV, IRR, tax payment amount, repayment of borrowed principal, balance of funds The real estate investment estimation sensitivity analysis system according to any one of claims 1 to 13, further comprising an index. Each index constituting the investment return trial balance includes items of a marginal rent indicating a maximum rent provided by a 100% occupancy rate in a set rent and a vacancy rate (occupancy rate). The real estate investment trial sensitivity analysis system according to any one of claims 1 to 14. The investment return trial balance includes the marginal rent, the vacancy rate, and the real rent index included in the item, and the real rent is calculated by the arithmetic processing means for calculating data of the index, and the marginal rent and the vacancy are calculated. 16. The real estate investment trial estimation sensitivity analysis system according to claim 15, which is calculated from the value of the rate. A real estate investment trial sensitivity analysis system that displays a trial investment income balance and a sensitivity analysis table for grasping future profitability and investment risk when investing in real estate,
Investment information setting means for setting investment information specific to each investment object, which is information necessary for calculating investment return in real estate investment,
Data calculation means of the investment return trial balance calculating the data of each index constituting the investment return trial balance corresponding to the investment information,
Means for outputting data calculated by the data calculation means of the investment return trial balance as an investment return trial balance;
An element variable setting input means capable of setting the sensitivity of four element variables of vacancy rate, interest rate, general sales management cost, and compulsory expense;
Data calculation means of the sensitivity analysis table to calculate data of each index of the sensitivity analysis table based on the value of the element variable,
Means for outputting the data calculated by the data calculation means of the sensitivity analysis table as a sensitivity analysis table,
For each investment target set by the investment information setting means, a trial calculation is made in accordance with the value of the element variable set by the element variable setting input means, and the sensitivity analysis result of the real estate investment is listed. A real-estate investment estimation sensitivity analysis system characterized by the following: 18. The real estate investment trial calculation sensitivity analysis system according to claim 17, wherein the means for outputting as the sensitivity analysis table outputs and displays the investment income trial calculation table in addition to the sensitivity analysis table. 19. A recording medium on which a program for realizing the function of the real estate investment trial estimation sensitivity analysis system according to any one of claims 1 to 18 is recorded in a computer-readable state.

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