JP2004145696A - Device, method and program for predicting earthquake damage - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a device, method and program for predicting earthquake damage easily and accurately predicting damage state of a building due to earthquake motion. <P>SOLUTION: An earthquake resisting indicator Is indicating earthquake resisting property of upper structural part of a building as an object of damage prediction and both an earthquake resisting indicator Isg indicating earthquake resisting property of ground on which the building is built and an earthquake resisting indicator Isp indicating earthquake resisting property of base structural part of the building or only the earthquake resisting indicator Isg are provided (Steps 100-118), degree of damage of the building is predicted due to earthquake motion on the basis of the provided earthquake resisting indicators, and the prediction result is output (Steps 120-134). <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2004,JPO

Description

【００７１】
また、「杭種類」は、次の表２に示される変換テーブルによって杭種類指標Ｐｋに変換する。
【００７２】
【表２】

【００７３】
また、「地盤種類」は、次の表３に示される変換テーブルによって地盤種類指標Ｇｃに変換する。
【００７４】
【表３】

【００７５】
また、「液状化」は、次の表４に示される変換テーブルによって液状化指標Ｌｑに変換する。
【００７６】
【表４】

【００７７】
また、「側方流動」は、次の表５に示される変換テーブルによって側方流動指標Ｌｆに変換する。なお、表５における備考欄は、各側方流動状態（「側方流動しない」、「側方流動しにくい」、「側方流動しやすい」の３種類の状態）の操作者による選択基準の一例を示すものである。この例では、予測対象建物の建築場所が護岸から１ｋｍ以上離れている場合は「側方流動しない」を、護岸から０．２〜１．０ｋｍの範囲内の場所に位置する場合は「側方流動しにくい」を、護岸から０．２ｋｍ以内に位置する場合は「側方流動しやすい」を、各々選択することになる。
【００７８】
【表５】

【００７９】
更に、「傾斜地滑り」は、次の表６に示される変換テーブルによって傾斜地滑り指標Ｓｆに変換する。なお、表６における備考欄は、各傾斜地滑り状態（「傾斜地滑りしない」、「傾斜地滑りしにくい」、「傾斜地滑りしやすい」の３種類の状態）の操作者による選択基準の一例を示すものである。この例では、予測対象建物の建築地が平地での切り土造成とされている場合は「傾斜地滑りしない」を、高さ２ｍ以下の盛り土造成とされている場合は「傾斜地滑りしにくい」を、高さ２ｍを越えた盛り土造成とされている場合は「傾斜地滑りしやすい」を、各々選択することになる。
【００８０】
【表６】

【００８１】
本実施の形態に係る地震被害予測装置１０では、表１〜表６に示した変換テーブル（表５及び表６については備考欄の情報を除く。）が予めＲＯＭ２６の所定領域にテーブル形式で記憶されている。なお、表１〜表６に示した各情報の変換テーブルは、自治体、公的機関、民間の建築会社等による調査報告や、過去に発生した地震による被害状況の調査結果、当該調査結果に対する解析的な検討の結果等に基づいて導出したものである。
【００８２】
以上のような各種情報の定量化が終了すると、次のステップ１０６では、上記ステップ１００、１０２の処理により操作者によって入力された「構造種別」、「建築年」、及び「階数」の各情報に基づいて、建物の上部構造部の耐震指標Ｉｓを既存の演算式を用いて演算する。なお、この耐震指標Ｉｓの値が既知の場合は、当該値を直接入力するようにしてもよい。
【００８３】
次のステップ１０８では、上記ステップ１００、１０２の処理により入力された「階数」を示す情報に基づいて、予測対象建物に地下階があるか否かを判定し、否定判定の場合はステップ１１０に移行する。
【００８４】
ステップ１１０では、上記ステップ１０４の処理によって得られた地盤種類指標Ｇｃ、液状化指標Ｌｑ、側方流動指標Ｌｆ、及び傾斜地滑り指標Ｓｆに基づいて、地盤の耐震指標Ｉｓｇを次の（１）式により演算する。なお、（１）式におけるＭｉｎ（）は、括弧内における指標（液状化指標Ｌｑ、側方流動指標Ｌｆ、傾斜地滑り指標Ｓｆ）の最小値を適用することを示す。
【００８５】
Ｉｓｇ＝Ｇｃ×Ｍｉｎ（Ｌｑ、Ｌｆ、Ｓｆ）　　　（１）
次のステップ１１２では、上記ステップ１００、１０２の処理により入力された「基礎種類」が‘直接基礎’であったか否かを判定し、否定判定の場合は入力された「基礎種類」が‘杭基礎’であったものと見なしてステップ１１４に移行する。
【００８６】
ステップ１１４では、上記ステップ１０４の処理によって得られた杭種類指標Ｐｋ及び建築年代指標Ｔに基づいて、基礎構造部の耐震指標Ｉｓｐを次の（２）式により演算する。
【００８７】
Ｉｓｐ＝Ｐｋ×Ｔ　　　（２）
次のステップ１１６では、上記ステップ１１０及びステップ１１４で各々演算した地盤の耐震指標Ｉｓｇ及び基礎構造部の耐震指標Ｉｓｐに基づいて、地下部の耐震指標Ｉｓｆを次の（３）式により演算し、その後にステップ１２０に移行する。
【００８８】
Ｉｓｆ＝Ｉｓｇ×Ｉｓｐ　　　（３）
一方、上記ステップ１１２において肯定判定された場合にはステップ１１８に移行し、上記ステップ１１０で演算した地盤の耐震指標Ｉｓｇに基づいて、地下部の耐震指標Ｉｓｆを次の（４）式により演算し、その後にステップ１２０に移行する。
【００８９】
Ｉｓｆ＝Ｉｓｇ×Ｃ３　　　（４）
なお、（４）式におけるＣ３（表１における建築年が‘１９９０年以降’の建築年代指標Ｔと同じ値）は、地下階がなく、かつ直接基礎である場合における基礎構造部の耐震指標の基準値として、過去に発生した地震による被害状況の調査結果に基づき、１９９０年以降の杭基礎と同等の値を設定したものである。
【００９０】
ステップ１２０では、予め定められた想定する地震が予測対象建物の建築位置において発生したと仮定した場合の地震動の大きさ（本実施の形態では、最大加速度（ｇａｌ））を演算する。
【００９１】
なお、上記想定する地震は、例えば、関東大地震や兵庫県南部地震等のように過去に実際に発生した地震から選択してもよいし、地震の規模だけは過去の実際の地震から選択して震源地を設定してもよいし、地震の規模や震源地を設定してもよい。また、この場合の震源地も、具体的な位置ではなく、建物の立地位置からの距離として設定してもよい。また、上記想定する地震を設定せずに、直接地震動の大きさを設定するようにしてもよいし、年超過確率によって指定するようにしてもよい。
【００９２】
次のステップ１２２では、上記ステップ１１６又はステップ１１８において得られた地下部の耐震指標Ｉｓｆと、上記ステップ１２０において得られた地震動の大きさ（最大加速度）と、に基づき、予めハードディスク２８に記憶された耐震指標Ｉｓｆ対最大加速度のグラフを示す情報（図３も参照）を用いて、予測対象建物の地下部の被害程度を導出（予測）する。例えば、耐震指標Ｉｓｆの演算値がＡ３で、かつ最大加速度がＢ４とＢ５の中央値である場合は、被害程度として‘大破’が導出される。また、例えば、耐震指標Ｉｓｆの演算値がＡ１で、かつ最大加速度がＢ３とＢ４の中央値である場合は、被害程度として‘倒壊’が導出される。
【００９３】
次のステップ１２４では、上記ステップ１２２で導出した被害程度の予測結果に基づいて、予測される地下部の復旧費用ＢＣを次の（５）式により演算する。
【００９４】
ＢＣ＝β×Ｃ　　　（５）
ここで、Ｃは予測対象建物を新しく建てる場合の地下部に要する費用である。また、βは予測対象建物を新しく建てる場合の地下部に要する費用に対する被害程度に応じた復旧費用の割合を示す値（以下、「被害係数」という。）であり、本実施の形態では、次の表７で示される値が適用される。
【００９５】
【表７】

【００９６】
なお、表７に示した被害係数βは、過去に発生した地震による被害状況の調査結果、当該調査結果に対する解析的な検討の結果等に基づいて導出したものである。
【００９７】
次のステップ１２６では、上記ステップ１０６で演算した建物の上部構造部の耐震指標Ｉｓに上記ステップ１１６又はステップ１１８で演算した地下部の耐震指標Ｉｓｆを反映させ、その後にステップ１２８に移行する。なお、本実施の形態では、当該反映を次の（６）式により行うものとする。
【００９８】
Ｉｓ＝Ｉｓ×α　　　（６）
ここで、αは地下部の耐震指標Ｉｓｆの大きさに応じた上部構造部の耐震指標Ｉｓの修正係数である。なお、（６）式における‘＝’はＩｓ×αの演算結果を新たなＩｓとすることを意味している。
【００９９】
一方、上記ステップ１０８において肯定判定された場合には、予測対象建物の地下部においては地震被害が発生しないものと見なして、上記ステップ１１０〜ステップ１２６の処理を実行することなくステップ１２８に移行する。
【０１００】
ステップ１２８では、以上の結果得られた上部構造部の耐震指標Ｉｓに基づいて上部構造部の復旧費用ＪＣを既存の導出手順を用いて導出する。なお、本実施の形態では、上記復旧費用ＪＣの導出手順として、前述の特許文献１に記載されている地震による損失額の演算手順を適用する。
【０１０１】
この場合、当該復旧費用ＪＣを導出するに当たって、営業停止日数（地震によって破壊された生産機能が回復するまでの日数）が導出され、当該営業停止日数に単位営業損失額（一日営業が停止した場合に発生する平均的な営業損失額）を乗じることによって営業損失額が導出されて用いられる。
【０１０２】
このとき、本実施の形態に係る地震被害予測装置１０では、予測対象建物に地下階がない場合において、上記ステップ１１０で演算された地盤の耐震指標Ｉｓｇの大きさに応じた係数（耐震指標Ｉｓｇが大きくなるほど小さくなる係数）を上記営業停止日数に乗じることによって得られた値を最終的な営業停止日数として採用している。
【０１０３】
すなわち、地盤の被害は、道路、電気、ガス、水道等の社会資本に及ぼす影響も甚大である。そこで、本実施の形態に係る地震被害予測装置１０では、地盤の耐震指標Ｉｓｇの大きさに応じた係数が乗じられた営業停止日数を用いることにより、上部構造部の復旧費用ＪＣを高精度化するようにしている。
【０１０４】
次のステップ１３０では、次の（７）式により建物全体の復旧費用ＴＣを演算する。
【０１０５】
ＴＣ＝ＢＣ＋ＪＣ　　　（７）
次のステップ１３２では、予測対象建物の地下部に対して耐震補強工事を施す場合の各種費用（本実施の形態では、耐震補強に要する費用（以下、「補強額」という。）及び耐震補強工事を施した場合の地震発生時の損傷額（以下、「地震損傷額」という。））を予め定められた耐震補強工法毎に演算する。
【０１０６】
次のステップ１３４では、以上の処理によって得られた地震被害に関する各種情報をディスプレイ１８に表示し、その後に本地震被害予測プログラムを終了する。
【０１０７】
図６には、上記ステップ１３４の処理によってディスプレイ１８に表示される各種情報の例が示されている。
【０１０８】
図６（Ａ）に示す例では、予測対象建物に地下階がない場合において、上記ステップ１２０で演算された地震動の大きさと、上記ステップ１２８までの処理で導出された上部構造部の耐震指標Ｉｓ及び復旧費用ＪＣと、上記ステップ１２４までの処理で導出された地下部の耐震指標Ｉｓｆ、被害程度及び復旧費用ＢＣと、上記ステップ１３０で演算された建物全体の復旧費用ＴＣと、が一覧表示されている。操作者は、当該表示画面を参照することによって想定された地震動による地震被害の予測結果を容易に把握することができる。
【０１０９】
一方、図６（Ｂ）に示す例では、上記ステップ１３２で演算された耐震補強工法毎の各種費用とそれに関連する情報が表示されている。同図に示すように、本実施の形態では、耐震補強工法の種類として「地盤の液状化対策」、「補強杭の追加」、「連続地中壁打設」、「地盤改良」等が予め想定されている。そして、これらの耐震補強工法毎に耐震補強を施したものと仮定したときの地下部の耐震指標Ｉｓｆと、上記補強額及び上記地震損傷額とが表示される。このときの上記補強額と上記地震損傷額との合計額が、地震が発生した場合における全体的な負担額となるため、同図に示す例では、当該合計額の最も少ない耐震補強工法から順に所定数（同図では３）だけ選定し、「判定」としてその旨を示すマーク（同図では‘◎’及び‘○’）が表示されている。従って、操作者は、当該画面を参照することにより、地震が発生した場合における全体的な負担額が少ない耐震補強工法を容易に把握することができる。
【０１１０】
地震被害予測プログラムのステップ１０６の処理が本発明の上部構造部耐震指標導出手段及び上部構造部耐震指標導出ステップに、ステップ１１０及びステップ１１４の処理が本発明の地下部耐震指標導出手段及び地下部耐震指標導出ステップに、ステップ１２２、ステップ１２８、及びステップ１３０の処理が本発明の予測手段及び予測ステップに、ステップ１２６の処理が本発明の修正手段及び修正ステップに、ステップ１２４、ステップ１２８、及びステップ１３０の処理が本発明の復旧費用導出手段に、ステップ１３２の処理が本発明の耐震補強関連費用導出手段に、ステップ１３４の処理が本発明の耐震補強工法提示手段に、各々相当する。
【０１１１】
以上詳細に説明したように、本実施の形態に係る地震被害予測装置１０では、被害予測の対象とする建物が建てられている地盤の耐震性能を示す耐震指標Ｉｓｇ及び上記建物の基礎構造部の耐震性能を示す耐震指標Ｉｓｐの双方か、又は耐震指標Ｉｓｇのみを導出し、導出した耐震指標に基づいて地震動による上記建物に対する被害程度を予測しているので、地震動による建物の被害状況を簡易でかつ高精度に予測することができる。
【０１１２】
また、本実施の形態に係る地震被害予測装置１０では、被害予測の対象とする建物の上部構造部の耐震性能を示す耐震指標Ｉｓを更に導出し、導出した耐震指標に基づいて地震動による上記建物に対する被害程度を予測しているので、耐震指標Ｉｓを用いずに予測する場合に比較して、より高精度に地震動による建物の被害状況を予測することができる。
【０１１３】
また、本実施の形態に係る地震被害予測装置１０では、導出した耐震指標Ｉｓｇ、耐震指標Ｉｓｐに応じて耐震指標Ｉｓを修正しているので、当該修正を行わない場合に比較して、より高精度に地震動による建物の被害状況を予測することができる。
【０１１４】
また、本実施の形態に係る地震被害予測装置１０では、耐震指標Ｉｓｇを導出する場合に、地盤の堅さの程度を示す地盤種類指標、地盤の液状化の状態を示す液状化指標、地盤の側方流動の状態を示す側方流動指標、及び地盤の傾斜地滑りの状態を示す傾斜地滑り指標に基づいて導出しているので、高精度に耐震指標Ｉｓｇを導出することができ、この結果として高精度に地震動による建物の被害状況を予測することができる。
【０１１５】
また、本実施の形態に係る地震被害予測装置１０では、耐震指標Ｉｓｐを導出する場合に、建物の建築年を示す建築年代指標及び建物に杭基礎が適用されているときの杭の種類を示す杭種類指標に基づいて導出しているので、高精度に耐震指標Ｉｓｐを導出することができ、この結果として高精度に地震動による建物の被害状況を予測することができる。
【０１１６】
また、本実施の形態に係る地震被害予測装置１０では、予測された被害程度に基づいて建物の復旧費用を導出しているので、当該復旧費用を精度よく導出することができる。
【０１１７】
更に、本実施の形態に係る地震被害予測装置１０では、予測された被害程度に基づいて、予め定められた耐震補強工法による耐震補強を被害予測の対象とする建物に施した場合の施工費用（補強額）及びこの場合の地震被害に対する復旧費用（地震損傷額）を複数種類の耐震補強工法について導出し、導出した施工費用及び復旧費用に基づいて得られる全体的な費用負担を最小とする耐震補強工法を提示しているので、上記施工費用及び復旧費用を精度よく導出することができ、かつ費用負担を最小とする耐震補強工法を操作者に対して容易に把握させることができる。
【０１１８】
なお、本実施の形態において示した（１）式〜（７）式は各々一例であり、各数式とも本発明の主旨に逸脱しない範囲内において適宜変更可能であることは言うまでもない。
【０１１９】
また、本実施の形態では、耐震指標Ｉｓｇ及び耐震指標Ｉｓｐの双方か、又は耐震指標Ｉｓｇのみを導出し、導出した耐震指標に基づいて地震動による上記建物に対する被害程度を予測する場合について説明したが、本発明はこれに限定されるものではなく、例えば、耐震指標Ｉｓｐのみを導出し、当該耐震指標Ｉｓｐに基づいて地震動による上記建物に対する被害程度を予測する形態とすることもできる。この形態は、耐震指標Ｉｓｇを導出するために必要とされるパラメータが不明である場合に有効である。
【０１２０】
また、本実施の形態では、導出した耐震指標Ｉｓｇ、耐震指標Ｉｓｐに応じて耐震指標Ｉｓを修正する場合について説明したが、本発明はこれに限定されるものではなく、例えば、耐震指標Ｉｓに基づいて予測される上部構造部の被害程度を既存の手法（例えば、上記特許文献１に記載されている手法）により予測し、導出した耐震指標Ｉｓｇ、耐震指標Ｉｓｐに応じて予測した上部構造部の被害程度を修正する形態とすることもできる。この場合も、本実施の形態と同様の効果を奏することができる。
【０１２１】
また、本実施の形態では、耐震指標Ｉｓｇを導出する場合に、地盤種類指標、液状化指標、側方流動指標、及び傾斜地滑り指標の全てに基づいて導出する場合について説明したが、本発明はこれに限定されるものではなく、これらの指標の複数の組み合わせに基づいて導出する形態とすることもできる。この場合は、本実施の形態に比較して、耐震指標Ｉｓｇの精度が低くなるものの、必要とされる指標数が少なくなるので、簡易に耐震指標Ｉｓｇを導出することができる。
【０１２２】
また、本実施の形態では、耐震指標Ｉｓｐを導出する場合に、建築年代指標及び杭種類指標の双方に基づいて導出する場合について説明したが、本発明はこれに限定されるものではなく、これらの指標の何れか一方のみに基づいて導出する形態とすることもできる。この場合は、本実施の形態に比較して、耐震指標Ｉｓｐの精度が低くなるものの、必要とされる指標数が少なくなるので、簡易に耐震指標Ｉｓｐを導出することができる。
【０１２３】
更に、本実施の形態で示した地震被害予測プログラム（図４参照）の処理の流れも一例であり、本発明の主旨を逸脱しない範囲内において適宜変更可能であることも言うまでもない。
【０１２４】
【発明の効果】
請求項１に記載の地震被害予測装置、請求項８に記載の地震被害予測方法、及び請求項１１に記載の地震被害予測プログラムによれば、被害予測の対象とする建物が建てられている地盤の耐震性能を示す地盤耐震指標及び上記建物の基礎構造部の耐震性能を示す基礎構造部耐震指標の少なくとも一方を導出し、導出した地盤耐震指標及び基礎構造部耐震指標の少なくとも一方に基づいて地震動による上記建物に対する被害程度を予測しているので、地震動による建物の被害状況を簡易でかつ高精度に予測することができる、という効果が得られる。
【０１２５】
また、請求項２に記載の地震被害予測装置、請求項９に記載の地震被害予測方法、及び請求項１２に記載の地震被害予測プログラムによれば、被害予測の対象とする建物の上部構造部の耐震性能を示す上部構造部耐震指標を更に導出し、導出した地盤耐震指標及び基礎構造部耐震指標の少なくとも一方と、上部構造部耐震指標と、に基づいて地震動による上記建物に対する被害程度を予測しているので、上部構造部耐震指標を用いずに予測する場合に比較して、より高精度に地震動による建物の被害状況を予測することができる、という効果が得られる。
【０１２６】
また、請求項３に記載の地震被害予測装置、請求項１０に記載の地震被害予測方法、及び請求項１３に記載の地震被害予測プログラムによれば、導出した地盤耐震指標及び基礎構造部耐震指標の少なくとも一方に応じて、上部構造部耐震指標又は当該上部構造部耐震指標に基づいて予測される上部構造部の被害程度を修正しているので、当該修正を行わない場合に比較して、より高精度に地震動による建物の被害状況を予測することができる、という効果が得られる。
【０１２７】
また、請求項４に記載の地震被害予測装置によれば、地盤耐震指標を導出する場合に、地盤の堅さの程度を示す地盤種類情報、地盤の液状化の状態を示す液状化情報、地盤の側方流動の状態を示す側方流動情報、及び地盤の傾斜地滑りの状態を示す傾斜地滑り情報の少なくとも１つに基づいて導出しているので、高精度に地盤耐震指標を導出することができ、この結果として高精度に地震動による建物の被害状況を予測することができる、という効果が得られる。
【０１２８】
また、請求項５に記載の地震被害予測装置によれば、基礎構造部耐震指標を導出する場合に、建物の建築年を示す建築年情報及び建物に杭基礎が適用されているときの杭の種類を示す杭種類情報の少なくとも１つに基づいて導出しているので、高精度に基礎構造部耐震指標を導出することができ、この結果として高精度に地震動による建物の被害状況を予測することができる、という効果が得られる。
【０１２９】
また、請求項６に記載の地震被害予測装置によれば、予測された被害程度に基づいて建物の復旧費用を導出しているので、当該復旧費用を容易に導出することができる、という効果が得られる。
【０１３０】
更に、請求項７に記載の地震被害予測装置によれば、予測された被害程度に基づいて、予め定められた耐震補強工法による耐震補強を被害予測の対象とする建物に施した場合の施工費用及びこの場合の地震被害に対する復旧費用を複数種類の耐震補強工法について導出し、導出した施工費用及び復旧費用に基づいて得られる全体的な費用負担を最小とする耐震補強工法を提示しているので、上記施工費用及び復旧費用を容易に導出することができ、かつ費用負担を最小とする耐震補強工法を操作者に対して容易に把握させることができる、という効果が得られる。
【図面の簡単な説明】
【図１】実施の形態に係る地震被害予測装置１０の外観を示す斜視図である。
【図２】実施の形態に係る地震被害予測装置１０の電気系の構成を示すブロック図である。
【図３】実施の形態に係る耐震指標Ｉｓｆと最大加速度との関係を示す情報の一例を示すグラフである。
【図４】実施の形態に係る地震被害予測プログラムの処理の流れを示すフローチャートである。
【図５】情報入力画面の一例を示す概略図である。
【図６】地震被害予測プログラムによって得られた地震被害に関する各種情報の表示例を示す概略図である。
【図７】従来技術の問題点の説明に供するグラフであり、「兵庫県南部地震による建物基礎の被害調査事例報告書」（１９９６年７月　日本建築学会）において報告された建物の上部構造被害と基礎被害の関係を示すグラフである。
【図８】従来技術の問題点の説明に供する概略図である。
【符号の説明】
１０　　地震被害予測装置
１８　　ディスプレイ
２２　　ＣＰＵ
２６　　ＲＯＭ
２８　　ハードディスク[0001]
TECHNICAL FIELD OF THE INVENTION
The present invention relates to an earthquake damage prediction device, an earthquake damage prediction method, and an earthquake damage prediction program. More specifically, the present invention relates to an earthquake damage prediction device capable of easily and accurately predicting a damage state of a building due to a seismic motion, The present invention relates to a prediction method and an earthquake damage prediction program.
[0002]
[Prior art]
Conventional techniques for predicting damage to a building due to earthquake motion include damage to the building caused by the earthquake, such as physical damage (damage when the building itself and its associated facilities and equipment are damaged) and operating loss (damage to the earthquake). In some cases, this is classified and considered as a loss caused by the suspension of business due to the influence (for example, see Patent Document 1).
[0003]
This technology uses a probabilistic method to evaluate the magnitude of seismic ground motion generated on the site, obtain seismic force according to the characteristics of the superstructure of the building, and quantitatively predict the expected value of earthquake damage. Was.
[0004]
[Patent Document 1]
JP 2001-282960 A
[0005]
[Problems to be solved by the invention]
However, the technology described in Patent Document 1 focuses on earthquake damage to the upper structure of a building, and there is a problem that it is not always possible to accurately predict earthquake damage according to the actual situation. Was.
[0006]
In other words, in recent large earthquakes, many damages on the ground and damage to the foundation structure supporting the building due to liquefaction of the ground and lateral flow (also called "fluidization phenomenon") have been reported. (For example, “Report of a case study on damage to a building foundation due to the Hyogoken-Nanbu Earthquake” which reported the relationship between damage to the upper structure and the damage to the foundation shown in FIG. 7 (Architectural Institute of Japan Kinki Branch) Foundation Structure Subcommittee Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake Foundation Damage Investigation Committee July 1996)). On the other hand, in the technique described in Patent Document 1, as shown in FIG. 8 as an example, damage to the entire building is evaluated based on the seismic performance of the upper structure of the building in accordance with the derivation result of the ground motion on the ground surface. Therefore, it is not always possible to accurately predict earthquake damage.
[0007]
In addition, if the ground and buildings are modeled in detail and a dynamic analysis method is used to confirm the safety of the building by performing vibration analysis with past and assumed earthquake waves, prediction of earthquake damage can be improved. Although it is possible to perform the analysis with high accuracy, the dynamic analysis method has a problem that the processing is complicated and much effort and time are required to predict earthquake damage.
[0008]
The present invention has been made in order to solve the above problems, and has an earthquake damage prediction device, an earthquake damage prediction method, and an earthquake damage prediction program capable of easily and accurately predicting a damage state of a building due to earthquake motion. The purpose is to provide.
[0009]
[Means for Solving the Problems]
In order to achieve the above object, the earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 1, wherein a ground seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the ground on which the building to be damaged is built and the seismic performance of the foundation structure of the building Underground seismic index deriving means for deriving at least one of the foundation structure seismic index, and seismic motion based on at least one of the ground seismic index and the foundation structural seismic index derived by the underground seismic index deriving means. Prediction means for predicting the degree of damage to the building.
[0010]
According to the earthquake damage prediction device of the first aspect, the ground seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the ground on which the building to be subjected to damage prediction is built and the base structure seismic resistance indicating the seismic performance of the foundation structure of the building At least one of the indices is derived by the underground seismic index deriving means, and the degree of damage to the building due to the seismic motion is predicted by the predicting means based on at least one of the derived ground seismic index and the foundation structure seismic index.
[0011]
That is, in the present invention, the degree of damage to the building due to the seismic motion is determined by at least one of the ground seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the ground on which the building is built and the base structure seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the foundation structure of the building. The prediction is performed with higher accuracy than in the case where the prediction is performed without considering the seismic index in the basement of such a building.
[0012]
In addition, since these seismic indices can be obtained by simple calculations using predetermined parameter values that affect the seismic performance indicated by the seismic indices, the above-described dynamic analysis method that requires vibration analysis is used. In comparison, the damage situation can be easily predicted.
[0013]
As described above, according to the earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 1, the ground seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the ground on which the building targeted for damage prediction is built and the seismic performance of the foundation structure of the building are calculated. At least one of the following basic structure seismic index is derived, and the degree of damage to the above building due to seismic motion is predicted based on at least one of the derived ground seismic index and the basic structure seismic index. Can be easily and accurately predicted.
[0014]
Further, the earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 2 is the invention according to claim 1, further comprising an upper structure seismic index deriving means for deriving an upper structure seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the upper structure of the building. The prediction means is configured to determine at least one of the ground seismic index and the base structure seismic index derived by the underground seismic index deriving means and the upper structure seismic index, and to damage the building due to seismic motion based on the upper structure seismic index. Predict the degree.
[0015]
According to the earthquake damage prediction device of the second aspect, the upper structure seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the upper structure of the building to be subjected to damage prediction is derived by the upper structure seismic index deriving means, and the prediction of the present invention is performed. By the means, the degree of damage to the building due to the seismic motion is predicted based on at least one of the derived ground seismic index and the base structure seismic index and the upper structure seismic index.
[0016]
As described above, according to the earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to claim 2, an upper structure seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the upper structure of the building to be subjected to damage prediction is further derived, and the derived ground seismic index and Since the degree of damage to the building due to the seismic motion is predicted based on at least one of the base structure seismic index and the upper structure seismic index, it is compared with the case where the prediction is performed without using the upper structure seismic index. It is possible to more accurately predict the damage state of a building due to earthquake motion.
[0017]
By the way, the damage to the underground part of the building due to the earthquake motion strongly affects the damage to the superstructure of the building due to the earthquake motion.
[0018]
Focusing on this point, the earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 3 is the invention according to claim 2, wherein at least one of the ground seismic index and the foundation structure seismic index derived by the underground seismic index deriving means. And a correcting means for correcting the degree of damage to the upper structure part predicted based on the upper structure part seismic index or the upper structure part seismic index according to the above.
[0019]
According to the apparatus for predicting earthquake damage according to claim 3, the correcting means is adapted to derive the seismic index for the upper structural part in accordance with at least one of the ground seismic index and the seismic index for the foundation structure derived by the underground seismic index deriving means. The upper structure seismic index derived from the above or the degree of damage to the upper structure predicted based on the upper structure seismic index is corrected.
[0020]
That is, in the present invention, the upper structure seismic index derived without considering the seismic performance of the underground, or the degree of damage to the upper structure predicted according to the upper structure seismic index, the seismic performance of the underground It is corrected according to the seismic index indicating that the upper structure seismic index or the degree of damage to the upper structure can be obtained with high accuracy taking into account the damage to the underground part, and the earthquake ground motion can be obtained with high accuracy The damage situation of the building can be predicted.
[0021]
As described above, according to the earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 3, based on at least one of the derived ground seismic index and the foundation structure seismic index, based on the upper structural seismic index or the upper structural seismic index. Since the degree of damage to the upper structure that is predicted by the correction is corrected, the damage state of the building due to the seismic motion can be predicted with higher accuracy than when the correction is not performed.
[0022]
Further, in the earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 4, in the invention according to any one of claims 1 to 3, when the underground seismic index deriving unit derives the ground seismic index, Ground type information indicating the degree of ground hardness, liquefaction information indicating the state of liquefaction of the ground, lateral flow information indicating the state of lateral flow of the ground, and indicating the state of slope landslide of the ground It is derived based on at least one of the slope landslide information.
[0023]
According to the earthquake damage prediction device of claim 4, when the ground seismic index is derived by the underground seismic index deriving means, the ground type information indicating the degree of the hardness of the ground and the state of the ground liquefaction are displayed. It is derived based on at least one of the liquefaction information shown, the lateral flow information showing the state of the lateral flow of the ground, and the slope landslide information showing the state of the slope landslide of the ground.
[0024]
That is, in the present invention, the ground seismic index is derived based on at least one of the ground type information, the liquefaction information, the lateral flow information, and the slope landslide information, which greatly affects the seismic performance of the ground, thereby achieving high accuracy. The seismic index can be derived at the same time.
[0025]
Thus, according to the earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to claim 4, when deriving the ground seismic index, ground type information indicating the degree of ground hardness, liquefaction information indicating the state of ground liquefaction. Derive the ground seismic index with high accuracy because it is derived based on at least one of the lateral flow information indicating the state of the lateral flow of the ground and the slope landslide information indicating the state of the slope landslide of the ground. As a result, it is possible to accurately predict the damage state of the building due to the seismic motion.
[0026]
Also, in the earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 5, in the invention according to any one of claims 1 to 4, the underground seismic index deriving unit derives the base structure seismic index. , Based on at least one of building year information indicating a building year of the building and pile type information indicating a type of a pile when a pile foundation is applied to the building.
[0027]
According to the earthquake damage prediction device of claim 5, when the basement seismic index is derived by the underground seismic index deriving means, the pile foundation is applied to the building year information indicating the building year of the building and the building. It is derived based on at least one of the pile type information indicating the type of the pile at the time of the operation.
[0028]
In other words, in the present invention, the seismic index is derived with high accuracy by deriving the seismic index of the foundation structure based on at least one of the building year information and the pile type information that greatly affects the seismic performance of the foundation structure. Have to be able to.
[0029]
Thus, according to the earthquake damage prediction apparatus according to claim 5, when deriving the base structure part seismic index, when the pile foundation is applied to the building year information indicating the building year of the building and the building Since it is derived based on at least one of the pile type information indicating the type of pile, it is possible to derive the seismic index for the foundation structure with high accuracy, and as a result, to predict the damage situation of the building due to earthquake motion with high accuracy can do.
[0030]
The earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 6 derives the restoration cost of the building based on the damage degree predicted by the prediction means in the invention according to any one of claims 1 to 5. It further comprises a recovery cost deriving means.
[0031]
According to the earthquake damage prediction device of the sixth aspect, the restoration cost of the building for which damage is to be predicted is derived by the restoration cost derivation unit based on the damage degree predicted by the prediction unit.
[0032]
That is, in the present invention, the restoration cost of the building is derived based on the degree of damage predicted by the prediction means of the present invention, so that the restoration cost can be accurately derived.
[0033]
As described above, according to the earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 6, the same effect as the invention according to any one of claims 1 to 5 can be obtained, and the estimated damage degree can be reduced. Since the restoration cost of the building is derived based on this, the restoration cost can be accurately derived.
[0034]
Furthermore, the earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 7 is the invention according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein a predetermined earthquake-resistant reinforcement method based on the degree of damage predicted by the prediction means. The construction cost when seismic reinforcement is applied to the building and the restoration cost for earthquake damage in this case are derived by the seismic reinforcement related cost deriving means and the seismic reinforcement related cost deriving means for deriving a plurality of types of seismic reinforcement methods. Means for presenting a seismic retrofitting method that minimizes the overall cost burden obtained based on the construction cost and the restoration cost.
[0035]
According to the seismic damage prediction apparatus of claim 7, the seismic retrofitting by a predetermined seismic retrofitting method is targeted for damage prediction based on the degree of damage predicted by the predictive means by the seismic retrofit-related cost deriving means. Construction costs when applied to buildings and restoration costs for earthquake damage in this case are derived for multiple types of seismic retrofitting methods, and the overall cost burden obtained based on the derived construction costs and restoration costs is minimized. The seismic retrofitting method is presented by the seismic retrofitting method. The presentation of the seismic reinforcement method by the seismic reinforcement method presenting means includes presentation by a display such as a liquid crystal display, a plasma display, an organic EL display, and a CRT display, and presentation by printing by various printers.
[0036]
That is, in the present invention, based on the highly accurate damage degree predicted by the predicting means of the present invention, the construction cost when seismic reinforcement is applied to the building whose damage is to be predicted and the restoration cost for the earthquake damage in this case , The construction cost and the restoration cost can be accurately derived.
[0037]
Further, in the present invention, by presenting a seismic retrofitting method that minimizes the overall cost burden obtained based on the construction cost and the restoration cost derived as described above, the seismic retrofitting method can be easily grasped. I have to.
[0038]
As described above, according to the earthquake damage prediction device of the seventh aspect, the same effect as the invention of any one of the first to sixth aspects can be obtained, and the estimated damage degree can be reduced. Based on the above, the construction cost and the restoration cost for the earthquake damage in the case of applying the seismic reinforcement by the predetermined seismic retrofitting method to the building whose damage is to be predicted based on the damage prediction were derived for multiple types of seismic retrofitting method. Since the proposed seismic retrofitting method minimizes the overall cost burden obtained based on the construction cost and restoration cost, the above construction cost and restoration cost can be derived accurately, and the cost burden is minimized. The operator can easily understand the seismic reinforcement method to be performed.
[0039]
On the other hand, in order to achieve the above object, the earthquake damage prediction method according to claim 8 is based on a ground seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the ground on which the building targeted for damage prediction is built, and a base structural part of the building. At least one of a base structure part seismic index indicating seismic performance is derived, and a degree of damage to the building due to seismic motion is predicted based on at least one of the derived ground seismic index and the base structure part seismic index.
[0040]
Therefore, according to the earthquake damage prediction method described in claim 8, the operation is performed in the same manner as in the invention described in claim 1. The accuracy can be predicted.
[0041]
Further, the earthquake damage prediction method according to claim 9 is the invention according to claim 8, further comprising: deriving an upper structure seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the upper structure of the building; The degree of damage to the building due to seismic motion is predicted based on at least one of the base structure part seismic index and the upper structure part seismic index.
[0042]
Therefore, according to the seismic damage prediction method of the ninth aspect, the operation is performed in the same manner as the invention of the second aspect, so that the prediction is performed without using the seismic index of the upper structure, as in the second aspect of the invention. As compared with the case, it is possible to predict the damage situation of the building due to the earthquake motion with higher accuracy.
[0043]
Further, the earthquake damage prediction method according to claim 10 is the invention according to claim 9, wherein the upper structural part seismic index or the upper structural part is based on at least one of the derived ground seismic index and the foundation structural part seismic index. The degree of damage to the upper structure predicted based on the part seismic index is corrected.
[0044]
Therefore, according to the seismic damage prediction method of the tenth aspect, since it operates in the same manner as the invention of the third aspect, similarly to the invention of the third aspect, the upper structure seismic index or the upper structure seismic resistance is used. It is possible to more accurately predict the damage state of the building due to the seismic motion as compared with a case where the degree of damage to the upper structure predicted based on the index is not corrected.
[0045]
On the other hand, in order to achieve the above object, an earthquake damage prediction program according to claim 11 includes a ground seismic index indicating a seismic performance of a ground on which a building targeted for damage prediction is built, and a base structural part of the building. An underground seismic index deriving step of deriving at least one of the foundation structure seismic index indicating the seismic performance, and at least one of the ground seismic index and the foundation structural part seismic index derived by the underground seismic index deriving step. And estimating the degree of damage to the building due to the seismic motion.
[0046]
Therefore, according to the earthquake damage prediction program according to the eleventh aspect, it operates in the same manner as the invention according to the first aspect. The accuracy can be predicted.
[0047]
Further, the earthquake damage prediction program according to a twelfth aspect is the invention according to the eleventh aspect, further comprising an upper structure seismic index deriving step of deriving an upper structure seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the upper structure of the building. The prediction step includes: damage to the building due to seismic motion based on at least one of the ground seismic index and the foundation structure seismic index derived in the underground seismic index deriving step, and the upper structure seismic index. Predict the degree.
[0048]
Therefore, according to the seismic damage prediction program according to the twelfth aspect, since it operates in the same manner as the second aspect of the invention, the prediction is performed without using the upper structure seismic index as in the second aspect. As compared with the case, it is possible to predict the damage situation of the building due to the earthquake motion with higher accuracy.
[0049]
Further, the seismic damage prediction program according to claim 13 is the invention according to claim 12, wherein the underground seismic index is derived according to at least one of the ground seismic index and the foundation structural part seismic index derived in the deriving step. The method further includes a modification step of modifying a degree of damage to the upper structure portion predicted based on the upper structure portion seismic index or the upper structure portion seismic index.
[0050]
Therefore, according to the seismic damage prediction program according to the thirteenth aspect, since it operates in the same manner as the invention according to the third aspect, similarly to the third aspect, the upper structure seismic index or the upper structure seismic resistance. It is possible to more accurately predict the damage state of the building due to the seismic motion as compared with a case where the degree of damage to the upper structure predicted based on the index is not corrected.
[0051]
BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION
Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. First, the configuration of the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS.
[0052]
As shown in FIG. 1, an earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment includes a control unit 12 that controls the overall operation of the device, a keyboard 14 and a mouse that are used for inputting various information and the like from an operator. 16. It is configured to include a display 18 for displaying processing results by the present apparatus, various menu screens, messages, and the like. That is, the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment is configured by a general-purpose personal computer.
[0053]
Next, a configuration of an electric system of the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. As shown in FIG. 1, the earthquake damage prediction device 10 includes a CPU (central processing unit) 22 that controls the entire operation of the earthquake damage prediction device 10 and a RAM (work area) used as a work area when the CPU 22 executes various processing programs. A random access memory (ROM) 24, a ROM (Read Only Memory) 26 in which various processing programs and various parameters are stored in advance, a hard disk 28 used to store various information, the above-described keyboard 14, mouse 16, and The display 18 and the display 18 are mutually connected by a system bus BUS.
[0054]
Therefore, the CPU 22 can access the RAM 24, the ROM 26, and the hard disk 28, acquire various information via the keyboard 14 and the mouse 16, and display various information on the display 18.
[0055]
By the way, in the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment, the magnitude of the ground motion assumed at the position where the building for which the damage situation is to be predicted (hereinafter, referred to as “prediction target building”) is built, and The degree of damage caused by the earthquake in the underground is derived (predicted) based on the relationship with the derived value of the seismic index Isf indicating the seismic performance of the underground of the building. In a predetermined area of the hard disk 28, information indicating a relationship between an underground earthquake resistance index Isf and a maximum acceleration used for deriving the degree of damage is stored in advance.
[0056]
FIG. 3 shows an example of a graph of the information. In the example shown in the figure, the degree of damage to the underground part is provided in four levels of 'small breach', 'medium breach', 'major breach', and 'collapse'. Here, 'small rupture' refers to, for example, the degree to which a pile head bends, cracks, or yields main bars when a pile foundation is used. The degree to which the destruction or excessive deformation of the pile, or the destruction or excessive deformation of the pile due to the ground deformation of the liquefied layer, etc., is shown. In addition, "great wreck" indicates the degree to which, for example, inclination or uneven settlement of the building occurs, and "collapse" indicates the degree to which the building falls or collapses. In FIG. 3, for convenience, the Isf value and the maximum acceleration are represented by symbols (A1, A2,..., B1, B2,...). A numerical value having a larger value is used.
[0057]
Then, in the example shown in FIG. 3, the area indicating each damage degree can be specified by the line indicating the boundary position of each damage degree. For example, when the derived value of the seismic index Isf of the underground part is A2 and the maximum acceleration is B2 (gal) or less, the damage degree is “small breach”. Further, for example, when the derived value of the seismic index Isf of the underground part is A1 and the maximum acceleration is B2 (gal) or less and is greater than B1 (gal), the damage degree is “medium damage”.
[0058]
Hereinafter, a case will be described in which information indicating the graph shown in FIG. 3 is stored in the hard disk 28. Further, as described above, in the present embodiment, the degree of earthquake damage is derived in four stages of “small breach”, “medium breach”, “major breach”, and “collapse”. It is also possible to adopt a form in which the degree of earthquake damage is derived in three or five or more stages.
[0059]
Next, the operation of the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing a process flow of an earthquake damage prediction program executed by the CPU 22 when the earthquake damage prediction device 10 predicts earthquake damage, and the program is stored in a predetermined area of the hard disk 28 in advance. Have been.
[0060]
In step 100 of the figure, a predetermined information input screen is displayed on the display 18, and in the next step 102, input of predetermined information from the operator via the keyboard 14 and the mouse 16 is waited.
[0061]
FIG. 5 shows an example of the information input screen displayed on the display 18 by the process of step 100. In the example shown in the figure, along with a message prompting the user to input information, the information to be input includes the “building place”, “structure type”, “building year”, “number of floors”, “basic type”, Information names of “pile type”, “ground type”, “liquefaction”, “lateral flow”, and “slope landslide” are displayed together with an area for receiving input. Hereinafter, the input contents of these pieces of information in the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment will be specifically described.
[0062]
The “building place” is input up to the municipal level at the position where the building to be predicted is built. In addition, as the “structure type”, it is input whether the building to be predicted is a RC (steel reinforced concrete) structure, an S (steel frame) structure, or an SRC (steel reinforced concrete) structure. As the “building year”, the user inputs whether the building to be predicted is a building before 1970, a building within the period from 1971 to 1989, or a building after 1990. Furthermore, as the “floor number”, the number of floors above and below the basement of the building to be predicted is input. If there is no basement floor, “0” is input as the number of basement floors.
[0063]
On the other hand, as the “foundation type”, it is input whether the building to be predicted is a direct foundation or a pile foundation. The “pile type” is input only when the “foundation type” is “pile foundation”, and the type of the pile is a cast-in-place RC pile, a steel pipe pile, or an existing pile. . As the “ground type”, the user inputs whether the ground on which the building to be predicted is built is a ground of one type, a ground of two types, a ground of two types, or a ground of three types. Here, the type 1 ground is the strongest and is hardly subjected to earthquake damage. Hereinafter, the 2+ type ground, the 2 type ground, and the 3 type ground become soft ground in this order. In general, three types of grounds are generally applied, namely, ground type 1 (solid), ground type 2 (normal), and ground type 3 (soft). For the purpose of highly accurate derivation of the ground, the ground of the two types, which is hardly affected by the earthquake and which can be treated as the same as the type 1 ground, is referred to as the 2+ type ground.
[0064]
As the “liquefaction”, the user inputs the three-stage liquefaction state in which the ground on which the prediction target building is built is not liquefied, hardly liquefied, or easily liquefied. Similarly, for “lateral flow”, enter any of the three stages of lateral flow state of not flowing laterally, hardly flowing laterally, and easily flowing laterally, and “sloping landslide” One of three levels of the slope landslide state, that is, no slope landslide, no slope landslide, and easy slope landslide, is input.
[0065]
The input contents of each piece of information described above are merely examples. For example, the “building place” may be input up to the prefectural level. Information other than "building place" and "number of floors" can be input in a smaller number of sections, or can be input in a larger number of sections. Here, the greater the number of input sections, the more precise and accurate the prediction of earthquake damage can be made, but the load of calculation performed in making the prediction increases. Hereinafter, a case where the information shown in FIG. 5 is input by the operator will be described.
[0066]
The operator of the earthquake damage prediction apparatus 10 inputs the above various information by operating the keyboard 14 and the mouse 16, and then points the “input end” button displayed at the bottom of the information input screen with the mouse 16. . In response, the above-mentioned step 102 becomes an affirmative determination, and the routine proceeds to step 104.
[0067]
In FIG. 5, "building location" is "town of △△ prefecture △△ city", "structure type" is "RC building", "building year" is "before 1970", "floor number" 4 floors above ground and 0 floor below ground (no basement floor), "Pile foundation" as "Foundation type", "Pile type RC" as "Pile type", "3 types of ground" as ground type, "Liquid The state is shown in which "Liquefaction" is input as "Liquefaction", "Does not flow laterally" as "lateral flow", and "No slope landslide" is input as "Slope landslide".
[0068]
In step 104, of the information input by the operator through the processing of steps 100 and 102, information that needs to be quantified (here, "building year", "pile type", "ground type", " Liquefaction "," lateral flow ", and" sloping landslide ". Hereinafter, the quantification procedure will be specifically described. In Tables 1 to 7 shown below, for convenience, each index or coefficient is represented by a symbol, but in practice, a larger value is used as the value assigned to each symbol is larger. For example, in Table 1, 'C1', 'C2', and 'C3' are shown as the building age indexes T, but actually, numerical values satisfying C1 <C2 <C3 are used. Further, for example, in Table 2, 'D3', 'D2', and 'D1' are shown as the pile type indicators Pk, but actually, numerical values satisfying D3>D2> D1 are used.
[0069]
First, “building year” is converted into a building age index T by a conversion table shown in Table 1 below.
[0070]
[Table 1]

[0071]
The “pile type” is converted into a pile type index Pk by a conversion table shown in Table 2 below.
[0072]
[Table 2]

[0073]
The “ground type” is converted into a ground type index Gc using a conversion table shown in Table 3 below.
[0074]
[Table 3]

[0075]
“Liquefaction” is converted into a liquefaction index Lq by a conversion table shown in Table 4 below.
[0076]
[Table 4]

[0077]
The “lateral flow” is converted into a lateral flow index Lf by a conversion table shown in Table 5 below. In addition, the remarks column in Table 5 shows the selection criterion by the operator in each lateral flow state (three states of “no lateral flow”, “hard lateral flow”, and “easy lateral flow”). An example is shown. In this example, if the building location of the prediction target building is more than 1 km away from the revetment, “no lateral flow” is displayed. If the building is located within a range of 0.2 to 1.0 km from the revetment, “sideward flow” is used. When it is located within 0.2 km from the revetment, "easy to flow" is selected.
[0078]
[Table 5]

[0079]
Further, “slope landslide” is converted into a slope landslide index Sf by a conversion table shown in Table 6 below. In addition, the remarks column in Table 6 shows an example of the selection criteria by the operator in each of the slope landslide states (three states of “no slope landslide”, “slope landslide difficult”, and “slopes landslide easily”). It is. In this example, if the building site of the prediction target building is to be cut on flat terrain, “no slope landslide” is set, and if it is set to fill up to a height of 2 m or less, “sloping landslide is difficult”. If the embankment is more than 2 m in height, "Easy landslide" is selected.
[0080]
[Table 6]

[0081]
In the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment, the conversion tables shown in Tables 1 to 6 (excluding the information in the remarks column in Tables 5 and 6) are stored in a predetermined area of the ROM 26 in a table format in advance. Have been. In addition, the conversion table of each information shown in Tables 1 to 6 is based on a survey report by a local government, a public organization, a private construction company, and the like, a survey result of a damage situation caused by an earthquake that occurred in the past, and an analysis of the survey result. It is derived based on the result of a typical study.
[0082]
When the quantification of the various types of information as described above is completed, in the next step 106, each information of the “structure type”, “building year”, and “floor number” inputted by the operator by the processing of the above steps 100 and 102 Based on the above, the seismic index Is of the superstructure of the building is calculated using an existing calculation formula. When the value of the earthquake resistance index Is is known, the value may be directly input.
[0083]
In the next step 108, it is determined whether or not there is a basement floor in the prediction target building based on the information indicating the “number of floors” inputted by the processing in the above steps 100 and 102. Transition.
[0084]
In step 110, based on the ground type index Gc, the liquefaction index Lq, the lateral flow index Lf, and the slope landslide index Sf obtained by the processing in step 104, the ground seismic index Isg is calculated by the following equation (1). Is calculated by Note that Min () in the expression (1) indicates that the minimum value of the index (the liquefaction index Lq, the lateral flow index Lf, the slope landslide index Sf) in parentheses is applied.
[0085]
Isg = Gc × Min (Lq, Lf, Sf) (1)
In the next step 112, it is determined whether or not the "basic type" input by the processing in the above steps 100 and 102 is "direct foundation". In the case of a negative determination, the input "basic type" is "pile foundation". 'And proceeds to step 114.
[0086]
In step 114, based on the pile type index Pk and the building age index T obtained by the processing in step 104, the seismic index Isp of the foundation structure is calculated by the following equation (2).
[0087]
Isp = Pk × T (2)
In the next step 116, an underground seismic index Isf is calculated by the following equation (3) based on the seismic index Isg of the ground and the seismic index Isp of the foundation structure calculated in steps 110 and 114, respectively, Thereafter, the process proceeds to step 120.
[0088]
Isf = Isg × Isp (3)
On the other hand, if an affirmative determination is made in step 112, the process proceeds to step 118, and based on the ground seismic index Isg calculated in step 110, an underground seismic index Isf is calculated by the following equation (4). Then, the process proceeds to step 120.
[0089]
Isf = Isg × C3 (4)
Note that C3 (the same value as the building age index T whose building year is '1990 or later' in Table 1) in equation (4) is the seismic index of the foundation structure in the case where there is no basement floor and the building is a direct foundation. As the reference value, a value equivalent to that of the pile foundation since 1990 was set based on the result of an investigation on the damage caused by an earthquake that occurred in the past.
[0090]
In step 120, the magnitude of the ground motion (in the present embodiment, the maximum acceleration (gal)) is calculated assuming that a predetermined assumed earthquake has occurred at the building position of the prediction target building.
[0091]
The assumed earthquake may be selected from earthquakes that actually occurred in the past, such as the Great Kanto Earthquake or the Southern Hyogo Earthquake, or only the magnitude of the earthquake may be selected from past actual earthquakes. The epicenter may be set, or the magnitude and the epicenter of the earthquake may be set. In addition, the epicenter in this case may be set as a distance from the location of the building instead of a specific location. Further, the magnitude of the seismic motion may be directly set without setting the assumed earthquake, or may be specified by the annual excess probability.
[0092]
In the next step 122, based on the seismic index Isf of the underground obtained in step 116 or 118 and the magnitude (maximum acceleration) of the seismic motion obtained in step 120, the data is stored in the hard disk 28 in advance. Using the information indicating the graph of the earthquake resistance index Isf versus the maximum acceleration (see also FIG. 3), the degree of damage to the basement of the building to be predicted is derived (predicted). For example, when the calculated value of the earthquake resistance index Isf is A3 and the maximum acceleration is the median value between B4 and B5, 'damage' is derived as the degree of damage. Further, for example, when the calculated value of the earthquake resistance index Isf is A1 and the maximum acceleration is the median value between B3 and B4, “collapse” is derived as the degree of damage.
[0093]
In the next step 124, the estimated underground restoration cost BC is calculated by the following equation (5) based on the damage degree prediction result derived in step 122.
[0094]
BC = β × C (5)
Here, C is the cost required for the underground part when building the prediction target building newly. Β is a value (hereinafter referred to as a “damage coefficient”) indicating the ratio of the restoration cost according to the degree of damage to the cost required for the underground portion when the prediction target building is newly constructed. The values shown in Table 7 apply.
[0095]
[Table 7]

[0096]
The damage coefficient β shown in Table 7 is derived based on the result of an investigation on the damage caused by an earthquake that occurred in the past, the result of an analytical study on the result of the investigation, and the like.
[0097]
In the next step 126, the seismic index Isf of the underground part calculated in the above step 116 or 118 is reflected on the seismic index Isf of the upper structure of the building calculated in the above step 106, and then the process proceeds to step 128. In this embodiment, the reflection is performed by the following equation (6).
[0098]
Is = Is × α (6)
Here, α is a correction coefficient of the seismic index Is of the upper structure according to the magnitude of the seismic index Isf of the underground part. Note that '=' in equation (6) means that the calculation result of Is × α is new Is.
[0099]
On the other hand, if an affirmative determination is made in step 108, it is assumed that no earthquake damage has occurred in the underground part of the prediction target building, and the process proceeds to step 128 without executing the processes in steps 110 to 126. .
[0100]
In step 128, the restoration cost JC of the superstructure is derived using the existing derivation procedure based on the seismic index Is of the superstructure obtained as a result of the above. In this embodiment, the procedure for calculating the amount of loss due to the earthquake described in Patent Document 1 is applied as the procedure for deriving the restoration cost JC.
[0101]
In this case, in deriving the restoration cost JC, the number of business suspension days (days until the production function destroyed by the earthquake is restored) is derived, and the unit business loss amount (one day of business suspension) Multiplied by the average operating loss that occurs in such a case).
[0102]
At this time, in the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment, when there is no basement floor in the building to be predicted, the coefficient (the seismic index Isg) corresponding to the magnitude of the ground seismic index Isg calculated in step 110 described above. Is multiplied by the above-mentioned number of business suspension days, and the value obtained by multiplying the number of business suspension days is adopted as the final business suspension days.
[0103]
That is, the damage to the ground has a great effect on social capital such as roads, electricity, gas, and water. Therefore, the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment uses the number of business suspension days multiplied by a coefficient corresponding to the magnitude of the ground seismic index Isg to improve the restoration cost JC of the upper structural part with high accuracy. I am trying to do it.
[0104]
In the next step 130, the restoration cost TC of the whole building is calculated by the following equation (7).
[0105]
TC = BC + JC (7)
In the next step 132, various costs (in the present embodiment, costs required for seismic reinforcement (hereinafter referred to as "reinforcement amount")) and seismic reinforcement work for performing seismic reinforcement work on the underground part of the prediction target building. The amount of damage at the time of the occurrence of an earthquake (hereinafter, referred to as "the amount of earthquake damage") in the case of applying is calculated for each predetermined earthquake-resistant reinforcement method.
[0106]
In the next step 134, various information related to the earthquake damage obtained by the above processing is displayed on the display 18, and thereafter, the earthquake damage prediction program ends.
[0107]
FIG. 6 shows an example of various types of information displayed on the display 18 by the process of step 134.
[0108]
In the example shown in FIG. 6A, when there is no basement floor in the prediction target building, the magnitude of the seismic motion calculated in step 120 and the seismic index Is of the upper structure derived in the processing up to step 128 are calculated. And the restoration cost JC, the underground seismic index Isf, the degree of damage and the restoration cost BC derived in the processing up to step 124, and the restoration cost TC of the whole building calculated in step 130 are displayed in a list. ing. The operator can easily grasp the prediction result of the earthquake damage due to the anticipated earthquake motion by referring to the display screen.
[0109]
On the other hand, in the example shown in FIG. 6B, various costs for each seismic retrofitting method calculated in step 132 and information related thereto are displayed. As shown in the figure, in the present embodiment, the types of seismic retrofitting methods include “ground liquefaction countermeasures”, “addition of reinforcing piles”, “continuous underground wall casting”, “soil improvement”, etc. It is assumed. Then, the seismic index Isf of the underground part, the amount of the reinforcement, and the amount of the earthquake damage are displayed when it is assumed that the seismic reinforcement is performed for each of the seismic reinforcement methods. Since the total amount of the reinforcement amount and the earthquake damage amount at this time is the overall burden amount in the event of an earthquake, in the example shown in the figure, the seismic retrofitting method with the smallest total amount A predetermined number (3 in the figure) is selected, and marks (“'” and “○” in the figure) indicating that are selected are displayed as “judgment”. Therefore, by referring to the screen, the operator can easily grasp the seismic retrofitting method with a small overall burden in the event of an earthquake.
[0110]
The processing of step 106 of the earthquake damage prediction program corresponds to the upper structure seismic index deriving means and the upper structure seismic index deriving step of the present invention, and the processing of steps 110 and 114 corresponds to the underground seismic index deriving means and the underground part of the present invention. In the seismic index deriving step, the processing of steps 122, 128, and 130 corresponds to the prediction means and the prediction step of the present invention, and the processing of step 126 corresponds to the correction means and the correction step of the present invention. The processing of step 130 corresponds to the restoration cost deriving means of the present invention, the processing of step 132 corresponds to the seismic retrofit related cost deriving means of the present invention, and the processing of step 134 corresponds to the seismic retrofitting method presenting means of the present invention.
[0111]
As described above in detail, in the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment, the earthquake resistance index Isg indicating the seismic performance of the ground on which the building to be subjected to damage prediction is built and the basic structure of the building are described. Both the seismic index Isp indicating seismic performance or only the seismic index Isg is derived, and the degree of damage to the building due to the seismic motion is predicted based on the derived seismic index. And it can predict with high precision.
[0112]
In addition, the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment further derives a seismic index Is indicating the seismic performance of the upper structure of the building to be subjected to damage prediction, and based on the derived seismic index, the building based on the seismic motion. , The degree of damage to the building due to the seismic motion can be predicted with higher accuracy than when the prediction is made without using the earthquake resistance index Is.
[0113]
Further, in the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment, the seismic index Is is corrected in accordance with the derived seismic index Isg and seismic index Isp. Accurately predict the damage situation of buildings due to earthquake motion.
[0114]
Further, in the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment, when deriving the seismic index Isg, a ground type index indicating the degree of ground hardness, a liquefaction index indicating the state of liquefaction of the ground, Since it is derived based on the lateral flow index indicating the state of lateral flow and the slope landslide index indicating the state of slope landslide of the ground, it is possible to derive the seismic index Isg with high accuracy. Accurately predict the damage situation of buildings due to earthquake motion.
[0115]
In addition, in the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment, when deriving the seismic index Isp, it indicates the building age index indicating the building year of the building and the type of pile when the pile foundation is applied to the building. Since it is derived based on the pile type index, the seismic index Isp can be derived with high accuracy, and as a result, the damage situation of the building due to the seismic motion can be predicted with high accuracy.
[0116]
In addition, in the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment, since the restoration cost of the building is derived based on the predicted degree of damage, the restoration cost can be derived accurately.
[0117]
Furthermore, in the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the present embodiment, based on the predicted damage degree, the construction cost when the building whose damage is to be subjected to the seismic reinforcement by the predetermined seismic reinforcement method is used ( The amount of reinforcement) and the restoration cost (earthquake damage amount) for earthquake damage in this case are derived for multiple types of seismic retrofitting methods, and the overall cost burden obtained based on the derived construction costs and restoration costs is minimized. Since the reinforcement method is presented, the construction cost and the restoration cost can be accurately derived, and the operator can easily understand the seismic reinforcement method that minimizes the cost burden.
[0118]
The expressions (1) to (7) shown in the present embodiment are merely examples, and it goes without saying that each expression can be appropriately changed without departing from the gist of the present invention.
[0119]
Further, in the present embodiment, a case has been described in which either the seismic index Isg and the seismic index Isp, or only the seismic index Isg is derived, and the degree of damage to the building due to seismic motion is predicted based on the derived seismic index. However, the present invention is not limited to this. For example, only the seismic index Isp may be derived, and the degree of damage to the building due to the seismic motion may be predicted based on the seismic index Isp. This mode is effective when parameters required for deriving the seismic index Isg are unknown.
[0120]
Further, in the present embodiment, the case where the seismic index Isg is corrected according to the derived seismic index Isg and the seismic index Isp has been described. However, the present invention is not limited to this. The degree of damage to the upper structure predicted based on the existing method (for example, the method described in Patent Literature 1) is predicted based on the derived seismic index Isg and the derived seismic index Isp. It is also possible to take the form of correcting the degree of damage of the user. In this case, the same effect as in the present embodiment can be obtained.
[0121]
Further, in the present embodiment, the case where the seismic index Isg is derived is described based on all of the ground type index, the liquefaction index, the lateral flow index, and the slope landslide index. The present invention is not limited to this, and may be a form derived based on a plurality of combinations of these indices. In this case, although the accuracy of the seismic index Isg is lower than in the present embodiment, the required number of indices is smaller, so that the seismic index Isg can be easily derived.
[0122]
Further, in the present embodiment, the case where the seismic index Isp is derived is described based on both the building age index and the pile type index. However, the present invention is not limited to this. The index may be derived based on only one of the indices. In this case, although the accuracy of the seismic index Isp is lower than in the present embodiment, the required number of indices is reduced, so that the seismic index Isp can be easily derived.
[0123]
Furthermore, the processing flow of the earthquake damage prediction program (see FIG. 4) shown in the present embodiment is also an example, and it goes without saying that the processing can be appropriately changed without departing from the gist of the present invention.
[0124]
【The invention's effect】
According to the earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 1, the earthquake damage prediction method according to claim 8, and the earthquake damage prediction program according to claim 11, the ground on which the building to be subjected to damage prediction is built Derives at least one of the ground seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the building and the seismic index of the foundation structure indicating the seismic performance of the foundation structure of the building. Therefore, it is possible to easily and highly accurately predict the damage state of the building due to the earthquake motion.
[0125]
Further, according to the earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 2, the earthquake damage prediction method according to claim 9, and the earthquake damage prediction program according to claim 12, the upper structure of the building to be subjected to damage prediction. Further derive the seismic index of the upper structure indicating the seismic performance of the building, and predict the degree of damage to the building due to seismic motion based on at least one of the derived seismic index of the ground and the base structure and the seismic index of the upper structure Therefore, the effect of being able to more accurately predict the damage state of the building due to the seismic motion as compared with the case where the prediction is performed without using the seismic index for the upper structure is obtained.
[0126]
According to the earthquake damage prediction device of claim 3, the earthquake damage prediction method of claim 10, and the earthquake damage prediction program of claim 13, the derived ground seismic index and seismic index of the foundation structure are derived. In accordance with at least one of the above, the upper structure seismic index or the degree of damage to the upper structure predicted based on the upper structural seismic index is corrected, The effect is obtained that the damage situation of the building due to the earthquake motion can be predicted with high accuracy.
[0127]
According to the apparatus for predicting earthquake damage according to claim 4, when deriving the ground seismic index, ground type information indicating the degree of ground hardness, liquefaction information indicating the state of liquefaction of the ground, Since it is derived based on at least one of the lateral flow information indicating the state of the lateral flow and the slope landslide information indicating the state of the slope of the ground, it is possible to derive the ground seismic index with high accuracy. As a result, the effect of being able to predict the damage state of the building due to the earthquake motion with high accuracy is obtained.
[0128]
Further, according to the earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 5, when deriving the seismic index for the foundation structure, the building year information indicating the building year of the building and the pile foundation when the pile foundation is applied to the building. Since it is derived based on at least one of the pile type information indicating the type, it is possible to derive the seismic index of the foundation structure with high accuracy, and as a result, to predict the damage situation of the building due to earthquake motion with high accuracy Can be obtained.
[0129]
Further, according to the earthquake damage prediction device of the sixth aspect, since the restoration cost of the building is derived based on the predicted degree of damage, there is an effect that the restoration cost can be easily derived. can get.
[0130]
Further, according to the earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 7, the construction cost in the case where the building to be subjected to the damage prediction is subjected to the seismic reinforcement by the predetermined seismic reinforcement method based on the predicted damage degree. In addition, the restoration cost for earthquake damage in this case is derived for multiple types of seismic retrofitting methods, and the seismic retrofitting method that minimizes the overall cost burden based on the derived construction costs and restoration costs is presented. In addition, it is possible to easily derive the construction cost and the restoration cost, and it is possible to obtain the effect that the operator can easily understand the seismic retrofitting method that minimizes the cost burden.
[Brief description of the drawings]
FIG. 1 is a perspective view showing an appearance of an earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to an embodiment.
FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a configuration of an electric system of the earthquake damage prediction device 10 according to the embodiment.
FIG. 3 is a graph showing an example of information indicating a relationship between a seismic index Isf and a maximum acceleration according to the embodiment.
FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing a processing flow of an earthquake damage prediction program according to the embodiment.
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram showing an example of an information input screen.
FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram showing a display example of various information on earthquake damage obtained by the earthquake damage prediction program.
FIG. 7 is a graph used to explain the problems of the conventional technology, and is a damage report on a superstructure of a building reported in “Report of a case study on damage to a building foundation caused by the Hyogoken-Nanbu Earthquake” (J. 1996). It is a graph which shows the relationship between and basic damage.
FIG. 8 is a schematic diagram for explaining a problem of the related art.
[Explanation of symbols]
10 Earthquake damage prediction device
18 Display
22 CPU
26 ROM
28 Hard Disk

Claims (13)

Underground seismic index deriving means for deriving at least one of a ground seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the ground on which the building targeted for damage prediction is built and a base structure seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the foundation structure of the building When,
Prediction means for predicting the degree of damage to the building due to seismic motion based on at least one of the ground seismic index and the foundation structure seismic index derived by the underground seismic index deriving means,
Earthquake damage prediction device equipped with. Further comprising an upper structure seismic index deriving means for deriving an upper structure seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the upper structure of the building,
The prediction unit is configured to determine at least one of the ground seismic index and the foundation structure seismic index derived by the underground seismic index deriving unit and the upper structure seismic index, and to evaluate a degree of damage to the building due to seismic motion. The earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 1, wherein the prediction is performed. The upper structure predicted based on the upper structure seismic index or the upper structure seismic index according to at least one of the ground seismic index and the foundation structure seismic index derived by the underground seismic index deriving means. 3. The earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 2, further comprising correction means for correcting the degree of damage of the section. The underground seismic index deriving means, when deriving the ground seismic index, ground type information indicating the degree of rigidity of the ground, liquefaction information indicating the state of liquefaction of the ground, lateral sides of the ground The earthquake damage prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the earthquake damage prediction device is derived based on at least one of lateral flow information indicating a flow state and slope landslide information indicating a slope landslide state of the ground. . The underground seismic index deriving means, when deriving the foundation structure part seismic index, the building year information indicating the building year of the building and the pile indicating the type of pile when the pile foundation is applied to the building The earthquake damage prediction device according to claim 1, wherein the device is derived based on at least one of the type information. The earthquake damage prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, further comprising a restoration cost deriving unit that derives a restoration cost of the building based on the degree of damage predicted by the prediction unit. Based on the degree of damage predicted by the predicting means, a plurality of types of seismic retrofitting methods are provided for the construction cost when the building is subjected to seismic retrofitting by a predetermined seismic retrofitting method and the restoration cost for earthquake damage in this case. Means for deriving seismic reinforcement related costs to be derived,
Seismic retrofitting method presenting means for presenting a seismic retrofitting method that minimizes the overall cost burden obtained based on the construction cost and the restoration cost derived by the seismic retrofit related cost deriving means,
The earthquake damage prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 6, further comprising: Deriving at least one of a ground seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the ground on which the building targeted for damage prediction is built and a base structure seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the foundation structure of the building,
A seismic damage prediction method for predicting a degree of damage to the building due to seismic motion based on at least one of the derived ground seismic index and the foundation structure part seismic index. Further derive an upper structure seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the upper structure of the building,
The earthquake damage prediction method according to claim 8, wherein a degree of damage to the building due to a seismic motion is predicted based on at least one of the derived ground seismic index and the foundation structure part seismic index and the upper structure part seismic index. A method of correcting a damage degree of the upper structural part predicted based on the upper structural seismic index or the upper structural seismic index according to at least one of the derived ground seismic index and the foundation structural seismic index. 9. The earthquake damage prediction method according to 9. An underground seismic index deriving step of deriving at least one of a ground seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the ground on which the building to be subjected to damage prediction is built and a base structure seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the foundation structure of the building When,
A prediction step of predicting a degree of damage to the building due to seismic motion based on at least one of the ground seismic index and the foundation structure part seismic index derived by the underground seismic index deriving step,
Damage prediction program that allows a computer to execute Further comprising an upper structure seismic index deriving step of deriving an upper structure seismic index indicating the seismic performance of the upper structure of the building,
The prediction step is a degree of damage to the building due to seismic motion based on at least one of the ground seismic index and the base structure seismic index derived in the underground seismic index deriving step, and the upper structure seismic index. The earthquake damage prediction program according to claim 11, wherein the prediction is performed. The upper structure predicted based on the upper structure seismic index or the upper structure seismic index according to at least one of the ground seismic index and the foundation structure seismic index derived in the underground seismic index deriving step. 13. The earthquake damage prediction program according to claim 12, further comprising a correction step of correcting a degree of damage to a part.

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