JP2003345991A - Earthquake derivative system and its method - Google Patents

Abstract

<P>PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an earthquake derivative system allowing anybody, anytime, in any area, to take out a meticulous insurance by preparing and reporting a last-minute earthquake alarm or a warning based on earthquake precursive electromagnetic phenomenon observation data. <P>SOLUTION: In addition to crustal change phenomena, earthquake precursive electromagnetic phenomena in a plurality of frequency bands ranging from a direct-current band to a high-frequency band are simultaneously observed at respective observation points 100a to 100n. By using the results of the observation, earthquake prediction is performed at an earthquake precursive electromagnetic phenomenon observation center 400. At least, information on the earthquake prediction, insurance fee for earthquake insurance, and insurance money calculation information are delivered via an insurance organ 700 to previously registered members 800a to 800n paying a membership fee. In response to application for taking out an insurance including insurance fee payment by the members having referred to the delivered information, the members are registered as insurers. After the occurrence of an earthquake, payment of insurance money is calculated for payment based on factual earthquake intensity information announced from a public institution 900. <P>COPYRIGHT: (C)2004,JPO

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to an earthquake derivative system and a method thereof, and more particularly, to an earthquake derivative system for compensating for damage to humans and property caused by an earthquake.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art An example of an earthquake derivative business system is described on a website of Yasuda Fire and Sumitomo Mitsui. Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2001-357213 discloses an apparatus for calculating an amount of money such as an earthquake insurance premium and a method thereof.

The characteristics of the conventional business method are that the epicenter is in a certain area (about 10 places nationwide), the magnitude is more than a certain value (generally M = 7.1), and the depth of the epicenter is smaller than a certain value. If a trigger event (earthquake that satisfies the above conditions) occurs, the compensation shall be paid automatically in advance, without having to assess the accident or prove the damage, provided that the event is shallow (approximately 60 km). .

[0004] At present, an official opinion on earthquake prediction is impossible. The basis is
June 27, 2015 The Geodetic Council, an advisory body of the Minister of Education, will shift the target of the earthquake prediction plan from "practical use of prediction", which predicts the occurrence of an earthquake just before and issues a warning, to more steady basic research. It is based on accepting the evaluation report of the Council's Earthquake and Volcano Committee. The contents are detailed on the following homepage. http://www.shinmai.co.jp/news/1997/06/28/001.htm

[0005] The results of the research using the seismological approach up to the present include "On a long-term evaluation method of earthquake probability" published by the Earthquake Research Committee of the government's Earthquake Research Promotion Headquarters on June 8, 2001. According to this, it is becoming possible to predict the earthquake occurrence probability in each place, the earthquake occurrence probability within 30 years or the like. This content is detailed on the following homepage. http://www.jishin.go.jp/main/choukihyoka/01b/chouk
i010607.pdf

As an overview of the past earthquakes, according to Tables 3.1 to 3.6 of the above website, the average interval between Nankai earthquakes is about 157 years, the Miyagi-oki earthquake is about 37 years, and the Atera fault (Gifu) Prefecture) is about 1814, Tanna fault (Shizuoka prefecture)
Is about 1165, and the Atotsugawa fault (Gifu and Toyama) is about 2
In 471, the Nagano Basin western margin fault was found to be about 1095 years old.

[0007] For an overview of future earthquakes, see Table C. 1 to C. According to 3, the probability of occurrence of the magnitude 7.5-8 of the Miyagi-ken Oki earthquake (hereinafter referred to as M) within the next 30 years is about 98%, and the probability of M = 8 in the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Tectonic Line fault zone is 14%, the probability of M = 8 in the Kannawa-Koufu-Matsuda fault zone is 3.6%, the probability of M = 8 in the Fujikawakawaguchi fault zone is 0.2-11%, and the M in the Suzuka east margin fault zone. It is known that the probability of M = 7.5 is 0.5% and the probability of M = 7 to 7.5 in the Ikoma fault zone is 0.14% or less. However, it cannot be said that a large earthquake does not occur even if the probability of occurrence is low.

According to page 28 of the above homepage,
The 30-year probability immediately before the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu Earthquake (M = 7.3) was 0.38-7.8%.

As described above, the results of research on earthquake prediction in the medium and long term are great, but on the other hand, according to an approach different from seismology, the results of research on short- and short-term earthquake prediction are also increasing. It is based on the observation of electromagnetic phenomena just before the earthquake,
Significant results have been achieved by the following two research groups.

The first is the Earthquake International Frontier Research Group. The contents are detailed on the following homepage. http://yochi.iord.u-tokai.ac.jp/eprc/ Interim evaluation report from October 1996 to September 2001,
The results have been announced. As a public evaluation composed of seismologists, the International Seismic Frontier Study (IFRE)
Q) An evaluation report summary is also posted on this website.
More detailed research results are summarized in the following books. Toshiyasu Nagao, `` New Developments in Earthquake Prediction Research, '' published by the near future company http://www.d1.dion.ne.jp/~kinmirai/13-Jishinyochi.
html Seiya Ueda "We can predict earthquakes" Published by Iwanami Shoten http://www.iwanami.co.jp/.BOOKS/00/3/0065790.html

The second is the Hayakawa Laboratory at the University of Electro-Communications. The contents are detailed on the following homepage. http://precursor.ee.uec.ac.jp/japanese/index.html In addition to the above, there are also research groups that have achieved results in earthquake prediction using several frequency bands or different methods. From the above, it is evaluated that the prediction immediately before the occurrence of an earthquake is sufficiently possible.

[0012]

However, the above-mentioned conventional earthquake derivative business system has the following problems. The first problem is that, despite the possibility that a major earthquake may occur anywhere in Japan, the insurance coverage area is limited. That is, as described later, there is a problem that it is not possible to subscribe to earthquake derivative insurance even though it is considered that there is a high risk of occurrence of a large earthquake.

The second problem is that the location of the epicenter and the magnitude (magnitude) of the earthquake do not coincide with the degree of damage. In other words, the damage caused by the earthquake strongly depends on the seismic intensity affected by the distance from the epicenter, the depth of the epicenter, etc.If the epicenter deviates slightly from the specified area, the magnitude is large and it is not guaranteed even if it is damaged Will be. Conversely, there is also a problem that even if the epicenter is within the specified area, the magnitude is slightly lower than the specified, and even if severe damage is not guaranteed. In addition, there is a contradiction that even if there is no damage, a large amount of insurance money can be received.

The third problem is that the period is limited to about five years. If there is no major earthquake during the period, a large number of drop-offs may occur and the continuation of the contract thereafter may be greatly reduced. There is that. The fourth problem is that there is no leading company in depopulated areas such as rural areas and remote islands, so insurance cannot be expected, and the derivative system cannot be established.

A fifth problem is that since the time of the occurrence of a large earthquake is not known, the customer does not have a sense of crisis and is not motivated to join the insurance. A sixth problem is that appropriate measures cannot be taken prior to the earthquake, and the damage is unnecessarily magnified.

A major earthquake that may occur in the near future is specified in the government-issued White Paper on Disaster Prevention in fiscal 1994 by expressing the observation enhanced area and the specific observation area. The Tokai earthquake described in Chapter 2 of the 2001 White Paper on Disaster Prevention is said to be the most dangerous. However, there is a problem that some areas are not covered by current earthquake derivative insurance.

As an example, the areas covered by Yasuda Fire's earthquake derivative insurance are Sapporo, Niigata, Sendai, Tokyo,
There are 10 places in Kanazawa, Nagoya, Osaka / Kobe, Takamatsu, Hiroshima and Fukuoka.

The observation-enhanced areas specified in the 1994 White Paper on Disaster Prevention are southern Kanto and Tokai, and the specific observation areas are eastern Hokkaido, western Akita / western Yamagata, eastern Miyagi / eastern Fukushima, and southwest Niigata. / Northern Nagano Prefecture, Western Nagano Prefecture / Eastern Gifu Prefecture, Nagoya / Kyoto / Osaka / Kobe Area, Eastern Shimane Prefecture, Iyo Nada / Hinata Area. In other words, it is understood that the essential dangerous area is not covered.

Details can be referred to the following homepage. http://www.bousai.go.jp/hakusho/h13hakusho.html http://www.ms-ins.com/art/arthp/200_jishin/main.ht
ml On the other hand, focusing on past earthquakes, it can be said that the following recently damaged earthquakes are not covered because the area or scale is out of regulation.

-1964 (1964) off Niigata prefecture "Niigata earthquake" M = 7.5-1968 (1968) "Tokachi offshore earthquake" M = 7.9-1978 (1978) "Izu Oshima coastal earthquake" M =
7.0 • 1978 “Miyagiken-oki earthquake” M = 7.
4 ・ 1983 (1983) Akita and Aomori prefecture offshore “Japan Central Sea Earthquake” M = 7.7 ・ 1984 (1984) “Nagano Prefecture West Earthquake” M =
6.8 ・ 1993 “1993 Hokkaido Nansei-oki Earthquake” M =
7.8 ・ 1994 “Haruka-Sanriku earthquake” M =
7.6-1995 (1995) Hanshin-Awajishima "Hyogoken Nanbu Earthquake" M = 7.3-2000 (2000) "Tottoriken Western Earthquake" M =
7.3-2001 (2001) Akinada "Geiyo earthquake" M =
6.4

According to a search on the science chronology website of the Earthquake Research Institute of the University of Tokyo, there have been 71 earthquakes with M = 6 or more in the last 100 years, of which none are covered by existing insurance. Was. Details can be found below. http://wwweprc.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/rika/rika.html

A first object of the present invention is to issue an earthquake warning or an earthquake warning immediately before or shortly after an earthquake occurs so that a customer can take precautionary measures to minimize the damage caused by the earthquake and to provide a derivative. It is an object of the present invention to provide an earthquake derivative system and a method thereof that can minimize risks for an insurance management organization.

A second object of the present invention is to make it possible for anyone to take out insurance immediately anywhere in the country at any time and from the above information, thereby contributing to promoting earthquake recovery.

A third object of the present invention is to reduce the insurance period by introducing short-term earthquake prediction information, minimize insurance premiums, increase the added value of customers, and acquire a large number of insurance subscribers. It is to stabilize derivative insurance management.

A fourth object of the present invention is to make each seismic intensity of each municipality announced by a public agency for earthquake observation, such as the Japan Meteorological Agency, the basis of damage compensation when an actual earthquake occurs.
The aim is to provide compensation that is roughly proportional to the extent of the damage.

A fifth object of the present invention is to allow a customer to minimize damage in advance by assuming a major earthquake due to active faults in various places in advance and publishing damage information required by an earthquake damage estimation simulation. To be able to take action.

[0027]

Means for Solving the Problems An earthquake derivative system according to the present invention is a means for simultaneously observing a precursory electromagnetic phenomenon in a plurality of frequency bands from a DC band to a high frequency band, in addition to a crustal deformation phenomenon, and a result of the observation. Means for making an earthquake prediction using, at least this earthquake prediction information, means for distributing insurance premiums and insurance money calculation information for earthquake insurance to paid members registered in advance,
Means for registering as an insurance subscriber in response to an insurance application including insurance payment by the paying member referring to the distribution information.

Further, a means for calculating the insurance premium for the insurance subscriber after the occurrence of the earthquake based on the actual seismic intensity,
It is further characterized by including. Further, the present invention is characterized by including means for distributing a result of performing a damage estimation simulation for each area using the earthquake prediction information. Further, means for distributing, in addition to the insurance premium and insurance money calculation information, at least the earthquake prediction information transmitted in the past and the actual / non-performing result information to the unspecified majority, Means for registering as a paying member in response to a member application including payment of a membership fee by a specific majority.

The earthquake derivative method according to the present invention includes a step of simultaneously observing a precursory electromagnetic phenomenon in a plurality of frequency bands from a DC band to a high-frequency band in addition to a crustal deformation phenomenon, and predicting an earthquake using these observation results. And delivering at least the earthquake prediction information, the insurance premium and insurance money calculation information for earthquake insurance to pay members registered in advance, and the pay member referring to the delivery information. Registering as an insurance subscriber in response to an insurance application that includes insurance premium payments.

[0030] Further, the present invention is further characterized in that the method further comprises the step of, after the occurrence of the earthquake, calculating the premium for the insurance subscriber based on the actual seismic intensity. Furthermore, the method includes a step of distributing a result of performing a damage estimation simulation for each area using the earthquake prediction information. Furthermore, in addition to the insurance premium and the insurance money calculation information, at least the earthquake prediction information transmitted in the past and the actual / non-performing information are transmitted to the unspecified majority, and Registering as a paying member in response to a member application including membership fee payment by a specific majority.

The operation of the present invention will be described. In the case of conventional earthquake derivative insurance, unless the number of subscribers is large, the system cannot be established, so it has to be limited to large cities. The first and fourth problems are as follows: the added value that high-precision earthquake occurrence prediction information is always distributed nationwide at a low fee, and a large number of regular insurance members are recruited. The problem is solved by creating a system that can instantly acquire a large number of insurance subscribers nationwide when making a call.

The second problem is that the inconsistency between the location and scale of the epicenter and the damage is determined by using insurance compensation based on the seismic intensity of each municipality announced by the Japan Meteorological Agency or other public agency for earthquake observation as the basis for damage compensation. The solution is to provide compensation that is roughly proportional to the extent of the damage.

The third and fifth problems are that, for a short period only, the possibility that the continuation of the contract due to the large number of abandonment is greatly reduced may be caused by increasing the low-cost reserve member period and increasing the risk period. Solving by maximizing customer interests with only short term coverage. The sixth problem is that, if the damage is unnecessarily spread, it is necessary for the customer to make an appropriate decision by himself / herself immediately before the earthquake by educating the earthquake damage mitigation measures in advance and sending out earthquake warnings and forecasts. Resolve by taking precautionary measures and minimizing damage.

[0034]

Embodiments of the present invention will be described below in detail with reference to the drawings. Before describing the embodiment of the present invention, an example of a system for predicting occurrence immediately before an earthquake will be described first.
It was proposed as Japanese Patent Application No. 2001-225241 on March 26.

First, referring to FIG. 1, there is shown a diagram for explaining the outline of the principle of occurrence of the earthquake precursor magnetic phenomenon, and the principle of occurrence is all known facts. I will explain it.

In the epicenter area 1, various electromagnetic waves 2 are generated by the pressure applied to the rock just before the earthquake, and propagate through the ground and appear on the ground (indicated by electromagnetic waves 15), or a fault (good conductive layer) The ground current 3 is transmitted through 14 and propagates to the ground. Further, electric charges are generated on the ground via the aquifer 4, and the electric charges change the radon concentration 5, resulting in a change in the ion concentration in the atmosphere. By measuring these changes in the ion concentration in the atmosphere and the electromagnetic waves 15, it is possible to know the precursor of the earthquake.

Further, the above-mentioned electric charges cause disturbance of the ionosphere 12, and only the ionospheric portion 12 ′ directly above the epicenter region 1 changes its altitude. The radio wave 6 in the VLF band such as Omega travels while reflecting between the ground and the ionosphere 12,
When the light is reflected by the ionospheric layer 12 'which has changed to a high degree, a time difference is caused as compared with the normal time (normal time). When this radio wave 6 reaches the ground and is received by the receiver 10, it is detected as a phase difference. Therefore, by observing this phase difference, it is possible to know the sign of the earthquake.

The broadcast radio wave 7 of another frequency band, for example, the FM wave normally does not return to the ground through the ionosphere 12, but the charge density changes due to disturbance of the ionosphere and is reflected therefrom to return to the ground. May come. By waiting and observing the FM wave 7 of a distant broadcast station which is unlikely to be received by the FM receiver 11, it is possible to know the sign of an earthquake.

In FIG. 1, reference numeral 9 denotes a detector for detecting a change in the ground potential caused by the ground current 3, which measures in the DC band. For example, VAN (Varotsos, Alexopoulos, N
The initial method of three Greek scholars of omicos can be used. Numeral 8 is for observing electromagnetic field fluctuations propagating in the ground, and is a ULF-VLF band underground electromagnetic field fluctuation detecting device. Reference numeral 13 denotes an apparatus for detecting ULF magnetic field fluctuation in the ground. Reference numeral 18 denotes a device for detecting a change in the HF band current. Reference numeral 17 denotes a device that detects ELF-LF band electromagnetic radiation.

Further, the direct radiation electromagnetic wave 15 from the epicenter area 1 and the ionospheric disturbance 12 ′ can be observed on a global scale using the artificial satellite 16.

FIG. 2 shows an example of the system described in FIG. 1 for simultaneously measuring the precursory electromagnetic phenomena in a wide frequency band from a direct current (DC) band to a high frequency (VHF) band. Reference numeral 20 denotes an observation device at a certain observation point. In addition to the DC band measuring device 21 and the VLF band / VHF band and atmospheric ion concentration measuring device 23, a medium wave band (MF)
It also has an electromagnetic wave measuring device 22.

The DC band measuring device 21 corresponds to the DC measurement 9 shown in FIG. 1, and detects a change in the ground potential due to the ground current 3. Various methods have been proposed for this DC measurement. For example, as described in FIG.
The N method can be used.

The DC band measuring device 21 detects the change of the ground potential and transmits it as digital data to the ground current observation / processing system 24. Therefore, the DC band measuring device 21 measures the ground current. It has a function, an A / D conversion function for digitizing the measurement result (analog), and a transmission function for transmitting the digital data to the ground current observation / processing system 24.

The medium-wave electromagnetic wave measuring device 22 is for observing the medium-wave electromagnetic waves (natural noise) generated from the epicenter region 1, and its observation range is about 300km in the daytime and a radius of about 300km.
At night, an MF band electromagnetic wave generated in response to an earthquake having a radius of about 1000 km due to the influence of the ionosphere can be observed, which is disclosed in Japanese Patent No. 3188609. The MF band electromagnetic wave measuring device (MF receiver) 22 transmits the measurement result to the medium wave precursor signal processing system 25.

The VLF band / VHF band and atmospheric ion concentration measuring device 23 detects the phase difference of the radio wave 6 in the VLF band (10),
Detection of ELF-LF band electromagnetic radiation 17, detection of underground ULF charging magnetic field fluctuation 13, detection of ULF-VLF band underground electromagnetic field fluctuation 8, reception of FM wave 7 (11), detection of HF band current fluctuation 18 and The observation of the concentration of the atmospheric ions (5) is performed. These measurement results are transmitted to various signal processing systems 26 as digital data.

A ground current observation / processing system 24, a medium wave precursor signal processing system 25, and various signal processing systems 26
Are the DC band measuring device 21, the medium wave band electromagnetic wave measuring device 22, VL
It has a function of receiving digital data from the F band / VHF band and the atmospheric ion concentration measuring device 23, and serving as an interface to the next-stage pre-earthquake sign electromagnetic phenomenon observation / display device. Further, a crustal deformation observation system 28 is provided, which is a device for observing crustal deformation known in the art.

The pre-earthquake electromagnetic phenomenon observation / display device 27 is constituted by a computer. The device 27 receives digital data from each measuring instrument and displays the data in a time series in a graph so that all data can be compared on the same screen. A threshold level (abnormal level) is set in advance for each data, and an alarm sound is generated when the threshold level is exceeded. The setting of this threshold level is variable. In this case, 2
When the above observation data simultaneously exceeds the threshold level, an aramu sound is generated in a different tone color. Further, it is configured to have a function of recording the occurrence of an abnormal level exceeding these threshold levels and a function of detecting the appearance of these abnormal levels.

Further, the apparatus 27 converts numerical information obtained by sampling each raw data at fixed time intervals, graph image data, alarm status, etc., through a communication network 30 such as the Internet or an intranet, and performs an information processing for observing a sign of an electromagnetic phenomenon before an earthquake. It has a function of transmitting to the device 32.

FIG. 3 is a functional block diagram of the electromagnetic sign observing and displaying device 27 before the earthquake. A data receiving unit 41 for receiving digital data from the ground current observation / processing system 24, the medium wave precursor signal processing system 25, various signal processing systems 26, and the crustal deformation observation system 28, and a signal processing for processing these received data Control unit (CPU) 4
2, a display unit 43 for displaying a data processing result, an alarm generation unit 44 for generating an alarm when an abnormal level occurs and generating an alarm, and a threshold level (47) for each measurement data. Record of appearance of abnormal level (4
6) and the data processing result is stored in the communication network 3.
And a transmitting unit 48 for transmitting the data to the “0”.

By the above-described components 21 to 28,
An observation system at a certain observation point is configured,
In a wide frequency band from DC to VHF, data obtained by direct waves generated from the epicenter, reflected waves arriving by ionospheric disturbance caused indirectly, data by crustal deformation, and the like are processed. Observation points in each region are set to the same standard and are configured to be constantly and simultaneously observed by the same observation system.

Data is collected from the observation points (20) installed in various places to the pre-earthquake electromagnetic phenomenon information processing device 32 via the communication network 30. At this time, M
MF band observation information processing center 31
, And transmitted to the device 32 via the communication network 30, and further, data of direct radiated electromagnetic waves and ionospheric disturbances from the epicenter area observed on a global scale by the artificial satellite 16 via the satellite antenna 33. Are collected through the satellite reception system 34, and all of these various observation data are taken into consideration.

The purpose of the data processing in this device 32 is to predict the time, place, scale (magnitude), etc., of the occurrence of an earthquake, and each measurement data transmitted from the observation point 20 in each place and the partner. Danger status signals from other observation centers 31 and data from artificial satellites (33, 34)
And the following processing is performed.

In the alarm state, an audible alarm is issued at the same time as the occurrence of the alarm, and the terminal indicates which data in which location is abnormal. This allows the operator to notice abnormally even during a nap during the night, and to enter the monitoring enhancement system.

Numerical information of raw data sampled at regular intervals of various electromagnetic phenomena is stored in a database table at regular intervals, and the numerical values are color-coded and displayed on a map according to abnormal levels for each place. This color-coded display is automatically updated at regular intervals, and the degree of danger of earthquake occurrence can be monitored moment by moment. Also, by looking at the color display distribution according to the degree of danger on the map, it can be used as a reference for identifying the location of the earthquake.

The graph image data of each place is arranged in the same time series and displayed on the terminal. With this processing, the area around the high-risk area can be intensively monitored with the transition of time, and can be used as a reference for identifying the date and time of occurrence of the earthquake.

It has a function of recording the operating status of the abnormality.

Finally, as shown in the example shown in FIG. 4, risk information is created by automatic and manual correction. Change the line color of the circle depending on the expected magnitude.

The advantages of using observation data from artificial satellites are as follows. First, since observation on a global scale is possible, research on earthquake prediction can be promoted, and the satellite stores data in its internal memory. It is possible to acquire data outside the direct communication range from this memory when passing over the sky, making it possible to conduct comparative studies with observation data on the ground, and to perform area observations, specify the location of the earthquake occurrence There is an advantage that it is easy to remove.

Next, an embodiment of the present invention of an earthquake derivative system using the above-mentioned earthquake precursor occurrence prediction system will be described in detail. FIG. 5 shows a schematic system configuration according to the embodiment of the present invention. In FIG. 5, 1
Reference numerals 00a to 100n denote pre-earthquake sign electromagnetic phenomenon observation systems installed in various parts of the country, and are assumed to be equivalent to the apparatus shown in FIG.

In FIG. 5, observation data from the pre-earthquake electromagnetic phenomenon observation system installed in various parts of the country is sequentially transmitted to the pre-earthquake electromagnetic phenomenon observation center 400 via the communication network 200 such as the Internet, and the like. Data processing is performed together with data from the electromagnetic phenomenon observation satellite receiving system 300. When an observer discovers abnormal data, it immediately informs the research institution 500 of each observation method and asks for a judgment. If it is judged that the abnormal state is short or immediately before the occurrence of the earthquake, an earthquake warning or earthquake warning is issued. create.

The Pre-Earthquake Electromagnetic Phenomenon Observation Center 400
Means that members / insurance members 800a to 800 registered in advance through the insurance organization 700 in advance.
For n, information such as the actual data of the observation of electromagnetic phenomena before earthquakes, past information, earthquake warnings or warnings, and estimation of earthquake damage will be disclosed. Details will be described later. The earthquake damage estimation information is based on information from the earthquake damage estimation simulation system research institution 600, and the pre-earthquake sign electromagnetic phenomenon observation center 400 is used.
Created with

In the event of a large-scale earthquake exceeding a predetermined level, the insurance institution 700 calculates insurance money based on the seismic intensity information from the public institution 900 of the seismic intensity announcement of each place based on the rules and purchases the corresponding insurance. Pay to the person 800 promptly.
Although details of this calculation method will be described later, as an example, a method known in JP-A-2001-357213 can be used. It is assumed that the insurance institution 700 cooperates with a risk hedging institution 1000 such as a construction company that profits in the event of an earthquake in order to avoid risks.

The above-mentioned pre-earthquake electromagnetic phenomenon observation center receives from its insurance organization the operating expenses, the earthquake occurrence prediction information fee, the success reward when the forecast is hit, and the like. Therefore, the present invention is characterized by combining an earthquake warning or a warning created based on the observed data of electromagnetic signs before an earthquake with earthquake derivative insurance, and using seismic intensity information for calculation of insurance money.

Next, an insurance recruitment flow as one of the important points of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. In FIG. 6, the homepage (hereinafter referred to as HP) of the Pre-Earthquake Electromagnetic Phenomenon Observation Center, which constitutes this business, is provided free of charge to unspecified large numbers of individuals and corporations interested in earthquakes from all over the country through advertising and other means. The information is disclosed (step S1). For those who wish, the materials can be provided by fax, mail, etc. instead of HP. The information that can be disclosed at this stage is simple information, and is the information listed below.

(1) Earthquake warnings or warnings sent in the past and actual / outlier performance information and statistical information thereof (an example is shown in FIG. 7) (2) Earthquake danger zone information nationwide (3) Insurance premium / Insurance claim calculation table (an example is shown in Fig. 8) (4) Introduction of public information for paying members (reserve members) and insurance members

If the above simple information is satisfied (step S
2) Register as an insurance member and pay a low membership fee to become a paid member (steps S3 and S3).
4). As a method of paying a membership fee, it is possible to use a method generally known as a transfer from a financial institution, a credit card, a web money, a convenience store terminal, a collection agency of a communication carrier, or the like. The registered contents include an e-mail address, a fax number, etc. as urgent contact information in addition to the address and name.

The paying member can browse the detailed contents of the simplified information by logging in by ID management (step S5). For those who wish, we will be able to provide materials by facsimile, mail, etc. periodically instead of browsing the website. The public information for the paying member includes the following information in addition to the public information for the unspecified majority in (1) to (4) above.

(5) Real-time earthquake precursor electromagnetic phenomena observation data (6) Actual information on earthquakes that have occurred without transmitting an earthquake warning or earthquake warning in the past (7) How to deal with transmitting an earthquake warning or earthquake warning ( 8) Earthquake damage estimation information based on active faults in various locations (9) Introduction of public information for insurance subscribers

When the earthquake occurrence prediction information as the “real-time earthquake precursor electromagnetic phenomenon observation data” shown in (5) is transmitted, the paying member who browses the information becomes an insurance member according to the flow of FIG. Registration processing will be performed. The insurance enrollment / insurance payment flow of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. Paid individuals and corporate members who have received the earthquake warning or the earthquake warning, refer to the seismic intensity prediction and damage estimation simulation, insurance premium / insurance in their area by referring to the materials displayed or sent on the website. (Step S11). Insurance premiums and claims are determined in units of one unit, and you can join as many units as you want.
However, the upper limit condition is added.

The insurance period can be extended from one week to one month in consideration of a shift in the prediction of the earthquake occurrence time. Contracts cannot be accepted or extended after an actual earthquake.

The insurance money is automatically paid to the insurance member when the actual seismic intensity exceeds a predetermined value without assessing the degree of damage. Aftershocks that occurred during the contract period will be represented by the main shock, and no insurance will be paid. However, if the seismic intensity of the aftershock is larger than the main shock, consider this. Details of the insurance payment will be described later.

The paying individual or corporate member makes a decision as to whether or not to join the earthquake derivative insurance in consideration of the insurance conditions (step S12). When a decision to join is made (step S13), an application contract is made with the insurance organization, and the insurance premium is paid. The insurance payment method is the same as the above-mentioned membership fee payment method, so that registration can be made in a short time. Note that this contract includes a confidentiality agreement that the information will not be leaked to a third party. After confirming the payment of the insurance premium, the insurance institution registers insurance registration (step S).
14, S15).

In each municipalities to which the insurance subscriber belongs, when a large earthquake with a seismic intensity equal to or greater than a predetermined seismic intensity actually occurs,
According to the seismic intensity observed by the public institution, the insurance institution pays the insurance subscriber to the insurance member (step S17). If the seismic intensity is less than the specified value, no insurance money is paid (step S18).

The calculation of the insurance premium is based on seismic intensity 5 or less, 5 or more, 6 or less,
Calculate according to seismic intensity of 6 and 7 In addition, applicants should determine the minimum seismic intensity that they are supposed to suffer, and as an example, pay one insurance premium of 5 or less for a period of one week for a period of one week.
It is assumed to be 1000 yen, inversely proportional to the seismic intensity, such as 4,000 yen for 5 or more, 3,000 yen for 6 or less, 2,000 yen for 6 or more, and 1,000 yen for 7 or more. The reason is that the low seismic intensity area is large and the probability of occurrence at the insurance member's residence is high,
This is because the area with high seismic intensity is small and the probability of occurrence at the place where the insurance member lives is low. The number of units that can be applied for is basically free, but there is an upper limit for each individual / corporation.

The calculation of the insurance money per unit is based on the seismic intensity of each region announced by a public organization after the actual earthquake and determined. The amount is calculated according to the seismic intensity: 10,000 yen, 300,000 yen for a little under 6, 300,000 yen for a little over 6, and 500,000 yen for 7. However, if the actual seismic intensity is lower than the minimum seismic intensity at the time of contract, insurance will not be paid.

As described above, since the insurance premium and the insurance money to be paid are inversely proportional, a sense of virtue appears to the subscriber, and an effect of promoting the desire to join the insurance can be expected. In other words, if it is judged that there is a possibility that even a weak earthquake may cause damage, an application is made to cover the damage from a low seismic intensity at a high price. You only need to apply to keep it.
In addition, large low seismic intensity areas are covered by high premiums with a large number of subscriptions, and narrow high seismic intensity areas are covered with low premiums with a small number of subscriptions. Can be taken.

The higher the prediction information on the occurrence of a large earthquake, the higher the
If the prediction is correct, there is a contradiction that the risk of increasing the insurance company's insurance payment increases. This contradiction caused a quake to occur in dangerous areas by giving warnings and warnings to the maximum area of the error range in consideration of prediction errors, to recruit many subscribers, and to hedge risks. In cooperation with a business that can make a profit in such a case (for example, construction companies such as construction companies, civil engineering companies, timber, building materials, stone companies, etc.). The problem is solved by paying insurance claims and, if the prediction is successful, constructing a system in which the construction-related company pays support to the insurance organization.

FIG. 10 is a schematic block diagram of an information processing apparatus (server) to be installed in the insurance agency 7 in FIG. 5, and includes a central processing unit (CPU as a control unit) 71 and an interface function between an operator and the operator. , An input unit 72 and an output unit 73 having a memory, a work memory 74, and a database 75 storing various information.

The database 75 stores browsing information for an unspecified number of people, browsing information for paying members, and browsing information for insurance subscribers. It is assumed that the contents shown in FIG. 11 are stored. "No." in FIG.
Correspond to each of the browsing information (1) to (10) described above. These pieces of information are extracted from the database 5 and displayed on the terminal of the accessor according to the accessor at each stage of the unspecified number of persons, the paying member, and the subscriber.

Although not shown, the database 75 stores, in addition to the above information, information necessary for registration and authentication of a paying member and an insurance member.

As another embodiment of the present invention, the basic configuration is as shown in FIG. 5 and described above. However, as a system for observing precursory electromagnetic phenomena, not a plurality of systems but a combination of two or more systems is used. Earthquake occurrence prediction can also be performed. Observers can also create earthquake prediction information independently, without entrusting the creation of earthquake prediction information to research institutions of each type. However, in either case, the prediction accuracy deteriorates.

The insurance payment standard may be determined based on the magnitude (magnitude) of the earthquake and the depth of the epicenter, without depending on the actual seismic intensity determined by an official agency. Not only short-term, but also a long-term insurance system based on earthquake damage estimation information based on active faults in various locations and earthquake hazard zone information nationwide is possible. In this case, an automatic continuation contract form is taken every year.

It is also possible to operate a system in which a low-paid member lives in an area with a seismic intensity of a certain level or higher, or pays an exemption fee when he / she is present. Large-scale theme parks, theatres, department stores, and other facilities with a large number of customers are also insured.
When a warning is issued, increase the number of evacuation guides and carry out temporary evacuation drills. When an earthquake with a seismic intensity exceeding a certain level actually occurs, an injured person or the like can be paid a solitary payment.

[0084]

As described above, the present invention has the following effects. The first effect is that anyone can purchase insurance in any region of the country. The reason for this is that if you are a reserve member in advance, you can immediately join the insurance with a warning and warning just before the earthquake.

The second effect is that a large number of insurance subscribers can be obtained. The reason is that by adopting the warning and warning just before the earthquake, the insurance period can be shortened and the insurance premium can be reduced.

The third effect is that the degree of actual damage and the unfairness of compensation can be reduced. Therefore, if the damage is large, a large amount of compensation can be obtained. The reason is to calculate insurance money based on the actual seismic intensity.

The fourth effect is that compensation for personal injury can be made. The reason is to set insurance money so that even individuals can take out insurance. The fifth effect is that insurance members can minimize damage by taking measures against earthquakes in advance. The reason is that insurance members can get emergency information right before the earthquake

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an outline of a principle of occurrence of an earthquake precursor electromagnetic phenomenon applied to the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of an earthquake precursor electromagnetic phenomenon observation system using the principle of occurrence of the earthquake precursor electromagnetic phenomenon of FIG. 1;

FIG. 3 is a functional block diagram of the earthquake precursor electromagnetic phenomenon observation display device of FIG. 2;

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of displaying a degree of danger of an earthquake in the earthquake precursor electromagnetic phenomenon observation display device of FIG. 3;

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an operating organization of the earthquake derivative system according to the embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing a flow of recruiting insurance subscribers according to the embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of browsing information.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing another example of browsing information.

FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an insurance subscription / insurance payment flow in the embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 10 is a schematic functional diagram of an insurance institution server.

FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating an example of a database of a server in FIG. 10;

[Explanation of symbols]

100a-100n Observation points in various places 200 communication network 300 satellite receiving system 400 Pre-Earthquake Observation Center 500 research institutions 600 Damage simulation system research institute 700 Insurance organization (server) 800a-800n members, insurance subscribers (terminals) 900 Seismic intensity announcement public organization 1000 Risk Hedging Institution

Claims (8)

[Claims] 1. A means for simultaneously observing precursory electromagnetic phenomena in a plurality of frequency bands from a DC band to a high-frequency band in addition to a crustal deformation phenomenon, a means for making an earthquake prediction using these observation results, Earthquake prediction information, insurance premiums and insurance money calculation information for earthquake insurance,
Means for distributing to a pre-registered paying member, and means for registering as an insurance subscriber in response to an insurance application including insurance premium payment by the paying member referring to the distribution information. Characterized earthquake derivative system. 2. The earthquake derivative system according to claim 1, further comprising means for calculating the premium for said insurance subscriber after an earthquake occurs based on the actual seismic intensity. 3. A means for distributing a result of performing a damage estimation simulation for each area using the earthquake prediction information,
The seismic derivative system according to claim 1 or 2, further comprising: 4. Means for distributing, at least in the past, earthquake prediction information and past / absent result information transmitted to the unspecified majority, in addition to the insurance premium and insurance claim calculation information, and refer to the distribution information. Means for registering as a paying member in response to the membership application including the membership fee payment by the unspecified majority.
An earthquake derivative system according to any of the above. 5. A step of simultaneously observing a precursory electromagnetic phenomenon in a plurality of frequency bands from a DC band to a high frequency band in addition to the crustal deformation phenomenon, and a step of making an earthquake prediction using the observation results. Distributing earthquake prediction information and insurance premiums and insurance money calculation information for earthquake insurance to pre-registered paying members, including paying insurance premiums by the paying members with reference to these distribution information Registering as an insurance subscriber in response to the insurance application. 6. A step of, after an earthquake, calculating insurance premiums for the insurance subscriber based on an actual seismic intensity,
The seismic derivative method according to claim 5, further comprising: 7. The earthquake derivative method according to claim 5, further comprising the step of distributing a result of performing a damage estimation simulation for each area using the earthquake prediction information. 8. A step of distributing, in addition to the insurance premium and the insurance claim calculation information, at least the earthquake prediction information transmitted in the past and the actual / non-performing information to the unspecified majority, and referring to the distribution information. The method according to any one of claims 5 to 7, further comprising a step of registering as a paying member in response to the membership application including the membership payment by the unspecified majority.