JP2002352052A - Method and system for financial analysis, recording medium with its computer program recorded, and computer program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a method and a system for financial analysis which calculate simple and plain analysis data, which can comprehensively evaluate an enterprise of high reliability. SOLUTION: Five kinds of analysis data are generated by a first analysis means 14 which generates analysis data related to the continuity of business on the basis of stored financial data, a second analysis means 15 which generates analysis data related to earning acquisition policies and capability, a third analysis means 16 which generates analysis data related to cash flow creation policies and capability, a fourth analysis means 17 which generates analysis data related to investing policies and capability, and a fifth analysis means 18 which generates analysis data related to financial policies and capability, and the enterprise is comprehensively evaluated on the basis of generated analysis data by an analysis control means 12.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a financial analysis system for creating financial analysis data for analyzing a financial situation based on financial data and outputting the financial analysis data on a screen or a printer.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art A financial management system for automatically creating a balance sheet and an income statement from financial data has conventionally existed. Such a prior art system is very useful because it can automatically create a balance sheet and a profit and loss statement simply by entering financial data, but it makes analysis of business conditions more efficient. No analytical data was provided. Therefore, corporate valuation is performed based on the individual ability and empirical judgment method of a certified tax accountant, certified public accountant, etc., and it has been difficult for a person with little specialized knowledge and financial management experience to carry out corporate valuation.

On the other hand, there is also a financial accounting system which supports the analysis of the correct financial situation of a company based on the income statement, various data on the balance sheet, or financial data obtained by processing the data. As such a system, for example, a financial accounting system related to a proprietary technology that analyzes from the viewpoints of cash flow generation ability, investment policy and investment capacity, and financial policy and financial capacity in order to judge the continuity of business in a company Exists. In this system, the analysis viewpoints of the above three items are further analyzed to a lower level to enable more accurate grasp and analysis of the actual corporate situation.

[0004]

The above-mentioned financial accounting system provides predetermined financial analysis data so that even a person with little financial knowledge can evaluate a company, and is a very useful system. is there.

[0005] The present invention is common in that it provides analysis data for company evaluation as in the prior art. However, the present invention is more specific and reliable from the viewpoint of further comprehensively evaluating companies. An object of the present invention is to provide a financial analysis system and a financial analysis method that enable highly-evaluable evaluation.

[0006]

Means for Solving the Problems As a result of repeated studies based on the current status and actual situation of corporate evaluation, the present inventor has conducted a simple and simple analysis by conducting analysis from the viewpoint of five items centering on cash flow. The present invention solves the above-mentioned problem by arriving at a conclusion that a highly reliable company analysis is possible and calculating and providing analysis data on these five items from financial data. Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be disclosed.

A first aspect of the financial analysis system according to the present invention comprises: a) input means for inputting financial data; b) financial data storage means for storing input financial data; and c).
First means for creating business continuity analysis data based on the difference between profits and cash flows from stored financial data, and analysis on revenue acquisition policies and capabilities including return on invested capital Second analysis means for creating data, third analysis means for generating analysis data on cash flow creation policies and capabilities, and fourth analysis means for generating analysis data on investment policies and capabilities including the profitability of capital investment. Analysis data creation means, comprising: analysis means for generating analysis data on financial policies and capabilities including comparison data of interest-bearing debt amounts and shareholders' equity, and d) connected to the analysis data creation means And an output means for outputting the analysis data.

In the financial analysis system according to this aspect, 5
By using different types of analysis means, it is possible to perform a simple and reliable company analysis by decomposing and analyzing the financial situation from each viewpoint. In other words, by providing five types of analytical data created from the perspective of experts on financial data, it is possible to construct an analytical structure in a relatively simple form,
The analysis can be as accurate as an expert without confusion.

In a second aspect of the financial analysis system according to the present invention, each analysis means divides each created analysis data into a plurality of stages according to a degree of deviation from an average level which is regarded as a theoretical normal value. It can be output as a digital evaluation value.

According to this aspect, each analysis data can be grasped as a digital evaluation value, so that a simpler judgment can be made. In this case, it is preferable that the digital evaluation value is divided into 10 or less levels, and when simplicity is emphasized, a 5-level evaluation with an average value of 3 is preferable.

A third aspect of the financial analysis system according to the present invention is characterized in that the analysis data creation means creates a comprehensive evaluation data of a company in which output data of each analysis means is given a predetermined weight.

According to this aspect, accurate company evaluation can be performed. That is, since the degree of influence of each analysis data on the company evaluation is different, the evaluation is correctly performed from the overall viewpoint of each analysis data according to its importance. This weighting itself can be dynamically changed. That is, if only specific analysis data has an abnormally high or low value, the balance may be totally out of order. Therefore, when the result value of each analysis data is equal to or less than a predetermined threshold value, it may be useful to correct the weight of each analysis data for correct evaluation. As a configuration for dynamically changing the weighting, for example, it is possible to store the weighting for each threshold value in a table and to use the corresponding weighting according to the threshold value.

According to a fourth aspect of the financial analysis system of the present invention, the analysis data creating means includes a conversion means for converting each analysis data into one graph display data, and the output means comprises:
It is characterized by comprising screen display means capable of displaying graph display data on a screen. According to this aspect, it is possible to visually grasp the balance of each analysis data and find a problem, thereby further facilitating the company evaluation.

According to a fifth aspect of the financial analysis system of the present invention, the conversion means of the analysis data creating means further selectively displays the financial data as various element data for generating each analysis data in a graph. The data can be converted into data, and the screen display means of the output means can simultaneously display one or a plurality of the graph display data converted by the conversion means on a screen. According to this aspect, it is possible to visually confirm the analysis data in question, and there is an advantage that analysis of the analysis data is facilitated. In such a graph display, element data and analysis data for each year can be displayed on the same graph so as to be distinguishable. A sixth aspect of the financial analysis system according to the present invention is characterized in that the input means further includes communication control means for receiving financial data from an external device and storing the received financial data in the financial data storage means. And

Although inputting financial data requires considerable labor and time, if there is already input data, it has the advantage that it can be used as it is. Further, by enabling input through a line (including a LAN, a WAN, and a communication line), there is an advantage that input can be performed by a plurality of persons.

According to a seventh aspect of the financial analysis system of the present invention, each analysis means performs a predetermined correction process even if a part of the financial data item serving as analysis element data does not exist. Is created. With this aspect, even if some financial data is not available,
Companies can be evaluated. For example, financial data of other companies
Unlike your company, you may not have access to data for every item. In such a case, if analysis data can be created only with data disclosed such as a securities report, financial analysis of a competitor becomes possible, and utilization from a management strategic viewpoint becomes possible.

As a correction process when a part of data is insufficient, for example, the points assigned to the missing financial data are equally or predeterminedly assigned to the financial data serving as other analysis element data. Various processing methods such as weighting and distribution can be adopted.

According to an eighth aspect of the financial analysis system of the present invention, the financial analysis system further stores an explanation including a method of interpreting, meaning, and predicting the financial analysis data created by the analysis data creating means, and sends the comment to the request. And a comment display means for displaying a comment on the financial analysis data accordingly.

As described above, by providing the commentary, it becomes possible for a person other than an expert to perform a company evaluation with high accuracy. In addition, by making the data analysis a hierarchical structure, the analysis logical structure becomes clear, and the content and accuracy of the explanation can be improved.

A ninth aspect of the financial analysis system according to the present invention includes: a) a processor for executing a predetermined program;
b) memories respectively connected to the processor;
An external storage device, an input device, and an output device, and the input device, the output device, the financial data storage device, the analysis data creation device, and / or the processor, the memory, the external storage device, the input device, the output device, and the program. It is characterized by constituting a comment storage means.

As described above, the financial analysis system of the present invention includes a personal computer, an office computer,
The present invention can be implemented by any computer such as a general-purpose computer, and can perform more complicated analysis according to the processing capability of the computer used.

A first aspect of the financial analysis method of the present invention is as follows.
a) inputting financial data; and b) storing the input financial data in financial data storage means.
c) From the stored financial data, analysis data on business continuity, which is created based on the difference between profit and cash flow, analysis data on profit-taking policies and capabilities including the rate of return on invested capital, and cash Analytical data on flow creation policies and capabilities, and on investment policies and capabilities, including the profitability of capital investment,
The method is characterized by comprising a step of generating analysis data on financial policies and capabilities including comparison data between the amount of interest-bearing debt and shareholders' equity, and d) a step of outputting analysis data.

According to a second aspect of the financial analysis method of the present invention, the analysis data creation step c) includes the steps of:
Generating a digital evaluation value in a plurality of stages in accordance with the degree of deviation from the average level which is regarded as a theoretical normal value.

A third aspect of the financial analysis method according to the present invention is characterized in that the analysis data creating step c) further includes a step of creating a comprehensive evaluation data of a company in which the created analysis data is given a predetermined weight. And

According to a fourth aspect of the financial analysis method of the present invention, the analysis data creating step c) further includes a conversion step of converting each analysis data into one graph display data, and a step d) of outputting the analysis data. Is characterized by comprising a screen display step capable of displaying graph display data on a screen.

According to a fifth aspect of the financial analysis method of the present invention, the analysis data creating step c) further includes a step of selectively converting financial data, which is a component for generating the analysis data, into graph display data. And d) outputting the analysis data includes a step of displaying the converted one or more graph display data simultaneously on a screen.

According to a sixth aspect of the financial analysis method of the present invention, the step (a) of inputting financial data further includes a step of receiving the financial data from an external device.

According to a seventh aspect of the financial analysis method of the present invention, the step d) of outputting the analysis data further stores a description including the interpretation, meaning, and prediction method of the analysis data created in the analysis data creation step c). And a comment display step of displaying a comment on the analysis data in response to a request.

In another embodiment of the present invention, each function of the present invention is implemented by a central control unit (CPU), a ROM, a RAM, a display device, an input / output device, an interface, a ROM,
This is achieved by a control program and a data set recorded in a RAM. Further, the control program and the data set itself and a recording medium on which the control program and the data set are recorded are also included in the embodiments of the present invention.

[0030]

Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings.

FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of the financial analysis system 2 according to one embodiment of the present invention.
The financial analysis system 2 includes an input unit 4 for inputting various types of financial data, a financial data storage unit 6 connected to the input unit for storing and accumulating the input financial data, and a connection to the financial data storage unit 6. It is composed of analysis data creation means 8 for creating financial analysis data from accumulated financial data, and output means 10 connected to the analysis data creation means 8 and outputting the analysis data created there. .

Various financial data generated with the execution of the business is input from the input means 4 according to the classification of predetermined account items and the like. The input financial data includes any data, including cash and cash equivalents, that can generate all financial statements, such as balance sheets, profit and loss statements, and cash flow statements. In the case of a system specialized in financial analysis, it may be configured to input only specific financial data required for analysis.

The input financial data is a magnetic disk,
The data is stored in a computer-readable or writable record or storage means 6 such as a memory. The recording or storage means 6 may be a computer readable or writable storage or recordable medium such as a CD R / W device, a magnetic tape recording device, a ZIP recording device, and an MO recording device other than those exemplified above. For example, all types of optical recording, magnetic recording, electrical recording or storage are included. This specification
In the claims (including the claims), the term "memory" includes the concept of "record" unless otherwise specified.

When receiving the analysis request signal from the input means 4, the analysis data creation means 8 creates predetermined financial analysis data from the financial data stored in the financial data storage means 6.

The analysis data creating means 8 can create various financial statements from financial data. The analysis data creating means 8 can further analyze the financial situation of a company or the like from a specific viewpoint by calculating predetermined data from a viewpoint different from the financial statements or by comparing the data with each other and comparing them with each other, and can be visually easily performed. The analysis data that can be understood is created and displayed on the output unit 10.

That is, the financial statements are for grasping the financial situation of the entire company.
It is processed into a certain meaningful unit (category) to create analysis data that can be compared and displayed.

As described above, by making it possible to analyze the financial situation from a specific viewpoint, the viewpoint of the analysis becomes clear and the meaning of the analysis can be easily understood even by a person having little specialized knowledge. Further, since these analysis data are processed so as to be displayed so as to be visually comprehensible, the understanding becomes easier. As described above, according to the present invention, the analysis of the financial situation can be performed more rationally and objectively.

FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram for explaining in more detail the configuration of the analysis data creating means 8 of FIG. 1 according to the embodiment of the present invention. The analysis data creation unit 8 includes an analysis control unit 12 that controls the entire analysis data creation process, a first analysis unit 14 connected thereto, and a second analysis unit 15.
, A third analyzing means 16, a fourth analyzing means 17, and a fifth analyzing means 18, which are five kinds of analyzing means. The analysis control means 12 further comprises analysis means 14, 15,
Comprehensive evaluation data of the financial situation is created based on the analysis data created by 16, 17, and 18.

Although five types of analysis means are provided in the present embodiment, some analysis means may not be provided depending on the accuracy of analysis and financial data to be collected. When there is a request to create analysis data from the input means,
The analysis control means 12 selects the analysis means 14, 15, 16, 17, 18 corresponding to the analysis data requested from the input means, and causes the necessary analysis data to be created.

When creating the analysis data as described above,
There may be cases where other analysis data is required to create the analysis data. For example, it is assumed that the analysis data created by the first analysis unit 14 requires the analysis data created by the second analysis unit 15. In this case, the analysis control means 12 or the first analysis means 14 analyzes necessary analysis data by the second analysis means 1.
5 and requests the second analysis means 15 to create necessary analysis data. In FIG. 2, some connection lines between the analysis units 14 to 18 are omitted from the viewpoint of simplifying the drawing. An appropriate data communication line can be provided. For example, if there is a possibility of transferring data directly from the first analyzing means 14 to the third analyzing means 16, a data line (not shown) connecting them can be provided.

When comprehensive evaluation of the financial situation is required based on the analysis data created by the analysis means 14 to 18, the analysis control means 12 creates comprehensive assessment data of the financial situation. The description of the analysis data hereinafter includes the concept of comprehensive evaluation data unless otherwise specified.

The analysis data created by the analysis means 14 to 18 and the comprehensive evaluation data created by the comprehensive evaluation means 19 are output to the analysis control means 12, from which they are output to the output means 10. The analysis control means 12 processes and outputs the analysis data into a form that is easily understood visually. For example, the analysis data to be compared is formed in a table format in which the analysis data is closely arranged, or a plurality of particularly analysis data to be compared are narrowed down and displayed in a graph. It is also possible to configure the analysis means 14, 15, 16, 17, 18 to perform such processing for display.

The first to fifth five types of analysis means 14 to 18 will be described with reference to FIG.

FIG. 3 shows the five types of analysis means 14, 1 shown in FIG.
It is a functional block diagram which shows an example of the structure of 5, 16, 17 or 18. Note that the basic functions of the respective analysis units are the same, and therefore, the first analysis unit 14 will be described here.

The first analysis means 14 comprises an analysis calculation formula and processing procedure storage means 20, an execution means 22, and an analysis data storage means 24. Each analysis means differs in the analysis calculation formula and the contents of the processing procedure storage means 20, respectively.

When an analysis request signal is input from the analysis control means 12 to the execution means 22, the contents of the request are specified from the signal, and the necessary calculation formula and processing procedure are read out from the analysis calculation formula and processing procedure storage means 20. . The calculation formula is for calculating predetermined new data from the financial data stored in the financial data storage means 6 or data obtained by processing them. The processing procedure defines a predetermined process required until final analysis data is obtained. According to this, the necessary financial data is read, and the corresponding calculation formula is read and executed.

Based on the read processing procedure and calculation formula, the execution means 22 executes predetermined calculation and processing,
Create the necessary analytical data. The data created by the execution unit 22 is processed so as to be visually displayable as necessary, and output to the analysis control unit 12 as it is, or stored in the analysis data storage unit 24.

The creation of such analysis data or the creation of predetermined processing data is also carried out at the request of other analysis means 15 to 18. This is because the processing data other than the accumulated financial data may be required in order to create the analysis data by the other analysis means 15 to 18. The analysis data storage means 24 may be provided in the analysis control means 12. Further, the analysis calculation formula and processing procedure storage means 20 can also be provided in the analysis control means 12. In the above description of the analysis data creating means 8, the analysis control means 12 and each of the analysis means 14 to 18 are divided into blocks so as to make the analysis method easy to understand. In order to avoid duplication and to speed up the processing, it is possible to configure the whole in an organically entangled manner and to output the above-mentioned five types of analysis data.

It is also possible to create a plurality of analysis data and display them sequentially in the order of creation. In this case, the analysis control means 12 controls creation and display of these analysis data. Furthermore, it is also possible to configure so that financial data necessary for creating analysis data is created with fewer items than when performing financial analysis of the company or the like.

For example, it is possible to create analysis data only with financial data required to be presented in a securities report. Such a simple analysis data creation function is useful for performing financial analysis of a competitor even if the analysis accuracy is slightly reduced.

In the above description, each function is described as a device or means in which each function is blocked. However, as shown in FIG.
PU 30, memory 31, external storage device 36, input device 3 such as keyboard, mouse, scanner, touch plate, etc.
5. Display device 3 such as a display using liquid crystal or CRT
2, a computer system having a printer 33, a communication device 37, and the like.

In this case, a computer / computer that causes these hardware resources to function as means for achieving the present invention.
The program will be used. Creation of such a program is obvious to those skilled in the art from the above description.
Accordingly, from the entire description of the present specification including the more detailed embodiments described below, a computer program that can be created by those skilled in the art can be organically combined with a computer system as illustrated in FIG. It constitutes the invention of the present application, and not only as a computer system,
The program also constitutes the content of the present invention itself. The same applies to a computer-readable recording medium recording such a computer program.

The external device connected to the communication device 37 in FIG. 4 may be an external computer system equipped with other financial accounting software, an external database, or via an external communication device. Even with an input terminal,
Another computer connected to a LAN, WAN, or the like may be used. Further, it is also possible to configure such that financial data is input from these external devices, and to output analysis data to these external devices. Data can also be input by reading a magnetic disk, CD, MO, or the like in which financial data is stored in the external storage device 36.

Next, the financial analysis will be described with reference to FIG.

FIG. 5 is a block diagram showing an example of a financial analysis on which the present invention is based. It discloses the concept of analysis in which the financial condition of the company is decomposed into each category from cash flow and other financial data and analyzed.

The conceptual block diagram shown in FIG. 5 shows one example of the basic concept of the cash flow analysis implemented in the present invention. The analysis is based on five items and the analysis data for each item. Is shown as a representative example of the analysis concept of the present invention for calculating. The analysis concept based on these five items is the basis of the financial analysis according to the present invention, and includes the first analysis means 14 to the fifth analysis means 1 in FIG.
Since the analysis content of No. 8 is shown, it will be described in detail below. However, five items (110, 120,
130, 140 and 150).
Since 1 to 115 are examples for creating analysis data of each of the five items, it should not be understood that the present invention is restricted by these subordinate concepts.

To facilitate understanding of the conceptual block diagram of FIG. 5, a comprehensive evaluation analysis table of a company is shown in FIG. 6, and the concept of FIG. 5 will be described using this table. The lower two digits of the number of each item in FIG. 6 correspond to the numbers of the respective conceptual block diagrams in FIG.
Corresponds to the digit. That is, the business continuity block 110 in FIG. 5 corresponds to the business continuity column 210 in FIG.
Corresponds to column 211 in FIG. The same applies hereinafter. This will be described sequentially below. Also, the correspondence between FIG. 5 and FIG. 2 will be described.
The concept block of business continuity 110 shown in FIG. 5 corresponds to the analysis of the first analysis means 14 described above, and the revenue acquisition policy and ability 120 correspond to the analysis of the second analysis means 15. Furthermore, the cash flow creation policy and capacity 130 correspond to the analysis of the third analysis means 16, the investment policy and capacity correspond to the analysis of the fourth analysis means 17, and the financial policy and capacity correspond to the analysis of the fifth analysis means 18. Corresponds to the analysis of

(Business Continuity 110) The cash flow of the entire company is composed of an operating cash flow, an investment cash flow, and a financial cash flow.
By analyzing these in detail, it is possible to judge the continuation or continuity of the currently active business.

The analysis based on the cash flow enables a wider and more accurate judgment as compared with the analysis of financial data based on the conventional statement of income or balance sheet-centered accrual. Therefore, the business continuity can be more accurately determined by analyzing the cash flow and the conventional financial statements from various viewpoints, including their relevance and consistency, and reviewing them in an integrated manner. Continuity of this business 11
0 is divided into five categories: net income vs. first free CF (cash flow) 111, net income vs. second free CF 112, working capital turnover days 113, payables payable days 114, and working capital shortage days 115. Divided. The overall business continuity 110 is determined by analyzing these categories and elements in an integrated manner.

(Net income vs. first free CF 111)
As shown as a lower column of the display column 211 of the comprehensive evaluation analysis table in FIG. 6, the net income vs. the first free CF 111 is “unwanted deviation (divergence A) is 5% of the sales.
Is less than? ] And "Is the deviation of 5% or more continued for 3 years or more?" ] Is analyzed from two viewpoints.

The divergence A is expressed as “Net income−First free C
F is calculated as follows: (Net income is “Net income after tax – bonuses to directors in the previous fiscal year”; 1st free CF is “Net income – (Total operating CF + acquisition and sale of tangible fixed assets) Balance) ”).

Whether the deviation A is less than 5% of the sales is
Judgment is made using the formula of “(deviation A / sales) × 100”, and if less than 5%, an evaluation of “Yes (2 points)” is given. If it is 5% or more, an evaluation of “No (0 point)” is given. When the deviation A is 5% or more, it is evaluated that there is a possibility that the profit is excessively displayed.

Further, if the deviation A is less than 5% for three years, an evaluation of “Yes (4 points)” is given, and if even one year out of three years is 5% or more, “No (0 point)” Is given. Also in this case, it is evaluated that the profit may be excessively displayed.

(Net income vs. second free CF 112)
The net income vs. the second free CF 112 is shown in column 21 of FIG.
2, "Does the undesirable divergence (divergence B) less than 10% of sales? ] And "Is the deviation of 10% or more continued for 3 years or more?" ] Is analyzed from two viewpoints. Deviation B is "Net income-2nd free CF"
(The second free CF is calculated as “Net income-
(Total operating CF + total investing CF) ").

It is determined whether the deviation B is less than 10% of the sales.
Judgment is made using the formula of “(deviation B / sales) × 100”, and if less than 10%, an evaluation of “Yes (2 points)” is given. If it is 10% or more, an evaluation of “No (0 point)” is given. Even when the deviation B is 10% or more, it is evaluated that there is a possibility that the profit is excessively displayed. Furthermore, if the deviation B is less than 10% over three years, an evaluation of “Yes (4 points)” is given, and if even one year out of three years is 10% or more, a determination of “No (0 point)” is made. Given. Again,
It is evaluated that there is a possibility of over-display of profit.

(Working Fund Turnover Days 113) The working capital turnover days 113 corresponds to the column 213 in FIG. 6, and indicates "Is one working turnover day suddenly increasing by 60 days or more? ] Is analyzed from the viewpoint of. The working capital turnover days are given by the formula of "inventory inventory holding days + trade receivables collection days + discount bill days". If the working capital turnover days 113 obtained by this formula has not increased by 60 days or more compared to the previous term (previous year), an evaluation of “Yes (2 points)” is given. In addition, if it has been extended for 60 days or more, a determination of “No (0 point)” is given. If it has been extended for more than 60 days, it is assessed that there is a possibility of deterioration in cash flow or an overstatement of inventories or trade receivables.

(Days of Payment of Payables 114) The days of payment of payables 114 correspond to 214 in FIG. ] Is analyzed from the viewpoint of. The number of payable days of the payable is calculated by an equation of “the payable at the end of the current term / {(cost of sales × 12 / months) / 365}”. If the number of payable days of payable 114 determined by this formula has not been increased by 30 days or more compared to the previous term (previous year), a judgment of “Yes (4 points)” is given.
In addition, a determination of “No (0 point)” is given if the period has been extended for 30 days or more. If the traditional payment days are industry average, 3
If it has been extended for more than 0 days, it is evaluated that there is a high possibility that the cash flow will deteriorate.

(Working Fund Shortage Days 115) The working capital shortage days 115 correspond to 215 in FIG. ] Is analyzed from the viewpoint of. The number of days of working capital shortage is obtained from the formula of “the number of days of inventory stock holdings + the number of days of accounts receivable-collection + the number of days of discounted bills−the number of days of payable payable”. If the working capital shortage days 115 obtained from this equation does not increase by 30 days or more compared to the previous term (previous year), a determination of “Yes (2 points)” is given. If it has been growing for 30 days or more, "No (0 point)"
Is given. If it has been extended for more than 30 days, it is evaluated that the possibility of worsening of cash flow is extremely high.

(Revenue Acquisition Policy and Capability 120) The revenue acquisition policy and ability 120 are the most basic of investment, which is how much return is obtained for invested capital. Dealing with efficiency. This return is grasped by free cash flow. This is because the profit is less affected by the judgment of the manager and more objectivity can be obtained.

The profit acquisition policy and ability 120 include a total asset-free CF return ratio 121, a sales-free CF ratio 122, a total capital turnover time 123, and a CVA (Cashflow).
(Value Added: cash flow added value) / after-tax operating balance 124, which is divided into four categories and corresponds to the display column 220 in FIG. By comprehensively analyzing each of these categories and each component, a determination of the overall revenue acquisition policy and the ability 120 is made.

Note that this evaluation criterion can be changed according to the type of business, for example, manufacturing or non-manufacturing. Therefore, appropriate financial analysis is possible.

(Total Asset Free CF Return Ratio 121)
The total asset-free CF return ratio 121 is shown in column 22 of FIG.
1 and “(1st free CF / total assets at end of current period)
× 100 ”. It is an index that can objectively determine the profitability of a business in the true sense excluding financing activities.

(Sales Free CF Ratio 122) The sales free CF ratio 122 corresponds to the column 222 in FIG.
"{1st free CF / (sales * 12 / months)} * 10
0 ". It is a major part of profitability, and it is an index to see the margin to sales, what percentage of free CF the sales finally generate.

(Total capital turnover days 123) The total capital turnover days 123 corresponds to the column 223 in FIG. 6, and is calculated by the formula of “total assets at the end of the current term / {(sales sales × 12 / months / 365)}}. Given. It is a major part of profitability and sees how many days your total assets make one turn. It is a factor to determine the appropriateness of the asset scale depending on whether it is fertile or lean.

(CVA / Business Balance After Tax 124) CVA
To calculate the after-tax operating balance 124, first, “interest expense and discount fee + (total equity at end of current period × cost of equity capital)”
The cost of capital is calculated by the following formula, and the CVA is calculated by the formula of “operating income and expenditure-tax payment such as corporate tax-total capital cost”. The CVA / after-tax operating balance is obtained by the formula of “{CVA / (operating balance-payment of tax such as corporate tax)} × 100”. The CVA / after-tax operating balance 124 corresponds to the column 224 in FIG. 6, and it is possible to examine what percentage of the after-tax operating balance corresponds to the cash flow added value.

(Cash Flow Creation Policy and Capability 13
0) The ability to generate operating cash flow is an important point for cash flow management. This is determined by the working capital structure.

The company's operating cash flow includes how much cash the company has newly, including the pros and cons of the operation cash flow creation policy from purchasing the company to manufacturing, sales, collection and payment. Flow, that is, whether added value was created. Therefore, the operating cash flow provides an index for judging whether or not the company's cash flow policy is appropriate, and indicates the basic generating ability.

This cash flow creation policy and capacity 13
0 is 131 days of working capital turnover and 13 days of payables payable
2, working capital shortage days 133, sales balance vs gross profit 134, operating balance vs operating profit 135, recurring balance vs recurring profit 136, and self-adjustment ability ratio of settlement expenditure payment 1
It is divided into seven categories of 37, and corresponds to the display column 230 of FIG. By comprehensively analyzing each of these categories and each element, the overall cash flow creation policy is determined.

(Working Fund Turnover Days 131) The working capital turnover days 131 correspond to the display column 231 of FIG. 6 and are in the same category as the working capital turnover days 113 described above. Thus, the number of days required for one rotation is determined. The appropriate number of days will vary depending on the type of business / type of business, such as manufacturing, wholesale, or retail (the same applies to the following description).

(Days of Payment of Debts 132) The days of payment of debts 132 are in the same category as the days of payment of debts 114 described above, and correspond to the display column 232 in FIG. See how many days you pay your accounts payable. If you are paying much later than the industry average, there is a problem with your cash flow structure.

(Working Fund Shortage Days 133) The working capital shortage days 133 are in the same category as the above-mentioned working capital shortage days 115, and correspond to the display column 233 in FIG. How many days the working capital shortage corresponds to has a direct effect on the working cash flow of a company.

(Sales Balance vs Gross Profit 134) This category corresponds to the display field 234 of FIG. 6, and determines the relationship between the sales balance and the gross profit. The greater the undesired divergence between the two, the more fundamental the problem is in the working capital structure. The risk of bankruptcy first appears in this significant divergence. When both the sales balance and the gross profit are negative, a rating of "out of the question" is given. When the sales balance is negative and the gross profit is positive, the evaluation of "very bad" is given. When the sales balance is plus and the gross profit is minus, a numerical value is obtained by the formula of “(sales balance−gross profit) / sales × 100 × −1”. Also,
When both the operating balance and the gross profit are positive, a numerical value is obtained by the formula of “(sales balance-gross profit) / sales × 100”.

(Operating Balance vs Operating Profit 135) This category corresponds to the display column 235 in FIG. 6, and evaluates the operating balance and operating profit. In the same way as above, the deviation at the stage including the operating expenses is analyzed. When both the operating income and the operating income are negative, a rating of "out of the question" is given. Also,
When the operating balance is negative and the operating profit is positive, a rating of "very bad" is given. When the operating balance is positive and the operating profit is negative, a numerical value is obtained by the formula of “(operating income-operating profit) / sales × 100 × −1”, and the judgment is performed based on the evaluation criteria of FIG. It is. When both the operating income and expenditure and the operating income are positive, a numerical value is obtained by the formula of “(operating income and expenditure−operating income) / sales × 100”, and the determination is made based on the evaluation criteria of FIG.

(Ordinary Balance vs Ordinary Profit 136) This category corresponds to the display column 236 in FIG. 6 and evaluates the current account and ordinary profit. Evaluation is based on the difference between profit and cash flow at the ordinary performance level of the company. If both the current account and the ordinary profit are negative, a rating of "out of the question" is given. In addition, when the current account is negative and the ordinary profit is positive, the evaluation of “very bad” is given.
When the current account is positive and the ordinary profit is negative, the numerical value is obtained by the formula of “(current account−current income) / sales × 100 × −1”, and the judgment is performed based on the evaluation criteria of FIG. It is. When both the current account and the ordinary profit are positive, “(current account—current account) / sales × 10
The numerical value is obtained by the equation of “0”.

(Self-adjustment ability ratio of settlement expenditure payment 13
7) This category corresponds to the display column 237 of FIG. 6, and determines the current account, dividend, tax, and executive bonus. It is checked whether the total investment amount is procured within the operating CF range or is financed by external funds. If the current account is less than or equal to 0, an "out of the problem" rating is given. When the payout is 0, an evaluation of "very bad" is given. When the tax is 0, an evaluation of "bad" is given. Further, when the executive bonus is 0, an evaluation of “bad” is given. When the current account balance is greater than 0, the judgment is made based on the numerical value given by the formula of ((subtotal of financial settlement-related expenditure + payment of dividend) / current account × 100).

(Investment Policy and Capability 140) For cash flow management, the viewpoint of funding for total investment and whether capital investment was profitable, in short, whether capital investment was successful or not. is important. We also need to pay attention to the proportion of self-financing of investment funds for equipment.

Therefore, the investment policy and capacity 140 are based on the self-raising ability ratio 141 of the investment fund and the effectiveness 1 of the capital investment.
42 into two categories. By comprehensively analyzing each of these categories and elements, the overall investment policy and capacity 120 are determined. The investment policy and capability 140 correspond to the display column 240 in FIG.

This category corresponds to the display column 241 shown in FIG.
And evaluate the total investment. Total investment is operating CF
To see if it is raised within the scope of the above or is it financed by external funding. When the sales CF is 0 or less, an evaluation of “out of problem” is given. When the sales CF is greater than 0 and the total investment is less than 0 (as a result, no investment is made), a “normal” evaluation is given. When the operating CF is greater than 0 and the total investment is greater than 0 (as a result of investing), “｛Investment CF total × (−1)
The determination is made based on the numerical value given by the expression of “/ operating CF total｝ × 100”.

(Effectiveness 142 of Capital Investment) The effectiveness 142 of capital investment corresponds to the display column 242 in FIG. 6, and whether the capital investment succeeded as a whole with a corresponding increase in operating cash flow thereafter. To see. In this category, the analysis is performed by distinguishing the case where the target settlement data is the third term, the fourth term or more. Note that the criteria for determination and the formula used are the same for the third and fourth periods. When the increase in operating CF is positive and results in capital investment, and when the increase in operating CF is zero or negative and results in capital investment, the result is “increase in operating CF / (tangible for the current period). Acquisition and sale of fixed assets + Acquisition and sale of tangible fixed assets in the previous fiscal year). In addition, when the increase in the operating CF is positive and, as a result, no capital investment is made, a “normal” evaluation is given. Further, when the increment of the operating CF is 0 or minus, and as a result, no capital investment is made, the evaluation of “very bad” is given.

(Financial Policy and Capability 150) The financial cash flow represents the result of what financial policy the company has taken. If the investment cash flow cannot be fully procured from the operating cash flow, the financial cash flow
All the cash flow balances are matched by financial cash flow so that there is no other way than to procure in cash.

As described above, the financial cash flow plays a role to lubricate the activities of the company, and by analyzing the contents thereof, provides important information from which the financial structure of the company including the appropriateness of the company's financial policy can be read. Give me

The financial policy and capacity 150 correspond to the display column 250 in FIG. 6 and are divided into three categories: interest-bearing debt (borrowings, etc.) principal repayment period 151, interest coverage ratio 152, and shareholders' equity ratio 153. Is done. By comprehensively analyzing each of these categories and elements, the overall financial policy and ability 150 are determined.

(Principal repayment period of interest-bearing debt 151) The repayment period of interest-bearing debt principal 151 is calculated as “(Short-term debt at the end of the current term +
Long-term borrowings at the end of current term + bonds and convertible bonds at the end of current term) / 2nd
It is given by the formula of "free CF". Display column 2 in FIG.
It is checked whether the repayment period of the borrowing principal exceeds 15 years or more, corresponding to 51. Determine the borrowing limit of the interest-bearing debt.

(Interest Coverage Ratio 15)
2) The interest coverage ratio 152 corresponds to the display field 252 in FIG. 6, and the true interest payment ability can be seen in the ICR (multiple). See if there is at least 3 times more. When the interest expense and discount rate are 0, a rating of "very good" is given. In other cases, numerical values can be obtained by standard input or simple input. In the case of standard input, an expression of “(operating income and expenditure + interest and discount fee + dividend income) / interest expense and discount fee” is used.
In the case of simple input, an expression of “business income / expenses / interest and discount” is used.

(Equity ratio 153) Equity ratio 15
The formula of “(total capital at the end of the current term / total assets at the end of the current term) × 100” is used to calculate 3. Shareholders' equity ratio 153
Corresponds to the display field 253 in FIG. A high shareholder's equity ratio leads to security over the medium to long term. However, too high is inefficient in terms of capital costs.

As described above, the five types of first to fifth analyzing means 1
The analysis data created by 4 to 18 and the various interim financial data calculated to generate the analysis data have been described using the embodiment including the calculation formula and the like. The analysis control means 12 creates comprehensive evaluation data for each of the analysis data thus calculated. Comprehensive evaluation,
A score can be assigned to each analysis data. In FIG. 6, 20 points for business continuity 210 and 2 points for revenue acquisition policy & ability 220
5 points, 20 for cash flow creation policy & ability 230
15 points for investment policy & ability 240 points, financial policy & ability 2
20 points are assigned to 50.

Further, each of these analysis data 14 to 18
Is calculated as a total point of the score obtained for each configuration item. Each determination is made for each configuration item. The second column from the right in FIG. 6 represents a normal evaluation value, and shows a numerical value corresponding to a normal state that is neither good nor bad. Further, the analysis table of FIG. 6 shows an example in which analysis data is generated and evaluated for three periods of fiscal year 10, fiscal year 11, and fiscal year 12 for comparison.

In the above description, only the embodiment in which all five analysis items are evaluated has been described. However, it is possible to perform a simple company evaluation in which some of these analysis items are omitted. .

Next, a description will be given using a specific screen display example.

FIG. 7 shows a basic screen 2 according to an embodiment of the present invention.
00 is shown. When the rightmost setting button 201 is selected, such a display is displayed on a CRT, a liquid crystal display, or another display screen. The selection buttons (201 to 243) displayed in a rectangular shape on this screen 200 are clicked with a device such as a mouse to execute the function displayed on the buttons. This screen 200
Thus, it is possible to select basic operations such as setting information about a company to be input and inputting data such as settlement data.

When the company selection button 222 is selected, registered company names are displayed. From the displayed, select the name of the company for which you want to enter data or perform financial analysis. In the case of data entry for an unregistered company, the company is registered. In this case, the company information setting button 211 allows the setting of detailed company information. In this way, information of various companies can be registered because of subsidiaries,
This is to enable financial analysis of competitors as well as settlement of accounts of affiliated companies. In addition, the settlement selection button 221
Allows selection of the fiscal year.

The financial data is input to the balance sheet and the income statement for the selected company and fiscal year by using the settlement data input button 231. The balance sheet button 232, the profit and loss statement button 233, and the cash flow statement buttons 241 and 242 display the financial statements corresponding to the buttons, and print out the financial statements displayed according to the selection.

When the display button 202 at the right end of the screen 200 is selected, a screen 300 shown in FIG. 8 appears. The screen 300 in FIG. 8 displays selection buttons 110 to 150 corresponding to the above-described analysis concepts. This screen 30
Those corresponding to the above-described analysis categories of the respective 0 selection buttons are given the same numbers. This screen 300
Accordingly, financial analysis can be easily performed according to the above-mentioned category. When this selection button is selected, the analysis data corresponding to the selected category is displayed.

When the business continuity button 110 is selected,
For example, a cash flow statement can be displayed as a graph. FIG. 9 shows the business continuity button 110 in FIG.
Is displayed, the cash flow statement 401, the analysis data 402 of the displayed graph, and the explanation 403 of the analysis data are displayed or printed. These displays may be displayed by selecting graphs, explanations, and analysis data. In this display example, only the main items in the cash flow statement are displayed. This is to make it easier to grasp the cash flow of the entire business.

As the above explanation, for example, the following display is performed. "CF is roughly classified into three categories.
The operating CF represents a net CF generated by a company by repeating business activities. Not only sales in a narrow sense,
This is the gross added value of CF generated internally from operations (purchase → production → sales → collection / payment, management).
A positive business CF is indispensable for normal corporate activities. The investment CF represents capital investment expenditure and the balance from investment and financing. There are also sales of assets such as equipment. The financial CF indicates the procurement and repayment of funds necessary for other corporate activities. In FIG. 10, unlike FIG. 9, a three-dimensional graph is displayed. Thus, the graph display may be a two-dimensional graph display or a three-dimensional display. Alternatively, both of them may be displayed. However, in the following example, only a two-dimensional graph display will be used for easy understanding.

In the above description, only one graph display has been described for one selection button selection. However, when one selection button is selected, a plurality of related graphs are simultaneously displayed from a specific viewpoint. Alternatively, they may be displayed sequentially and continuously. By doing so, it becomes easy to associate and analyze a plurality of data with a specific aspect. In this embodiment, this operation is performed by using the graph continuous / simultaneous output button 171 in FIG.
Is pressed.

Further, as shown in FIG. 11, as the overall evaluation of the company, the business continuity 110, the profit acquisition policy and the ability 120, the cash flow creation policy and the ability 13
0, 5 of investment policy and ability 140, financial policy and ability 150
The two categories can be displayed or printed out as a radar chart 501. At this time, the evaluation data 502 and the commentary 503 can be displayed or printed at the same time. Thereby, the comprehensive evaluation of the company can be performed visually and more objectively. In this embodiment, this operation is performed using the comprehensive evaluation button 1 shown in FIG.
72 is depressed.

[0108]

As described above, according to the present invention, in analyzing the financial condition of a company, predetermined five items of analysis data centering on cash flows are created from financial data, and the accuracy of the analysis is determined based on the data. Providing high comprehensive evaluation data enabled accurate corporate evaluation without any specialized knowledge. In addition, the analysis results can be visually compared by graphical display, which further facilitates the analysis.

Further, even when a part of financial data of a competitor is difficult to obtain, it is possible to evaluate a company from predetermined data and the like disclosed in a securities report and the like.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram showing a configuration of a financial analysis system 2 according to one embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram for explaining in further detail the configuration of the analysis data creating means 8 of FIG. 1 according to the embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 3 is a functional block diagram showing an example of a configuration of an analysis unit in FIG. 2;

FIG. 4 is a configuration diagram of a computer system capable of implementing the present invention.

FIG. 5 is a block diagram illustrating an example of a hierarchical structure of analysis on which the present invention is based.

FIG. 6 is a table showing an example of an enterprise comprehensive evaluation analysis table created by the financial analysis system of the present invention.

FIG. 7 is a diagram showing a basic screen 200 according to one embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing a display screen 300 that appears when a display button 202 of the basic screen 200 is selected.

FIG. 9 shows a business continuity button 110 on the screen 300 of FIG.
FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an example of data displayed or printed when “” is selected.

FIG. 10 is a diagram showing another display example of the CF calculation report 401 in FIG.

FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating a display example of a radar chart of a comprehensive evaluation of a company.

[Explanation of symbols]

 2 Financial analysis system 4 Input means 6 Financial data storage means 8 Analysis data creation means 10 Output means 12 Analysis control means 14 First analysis means 15 Second analysis means 16 Third analysis means 17 Fourth analysis means 18 5 analysis means 20 analysis calculation formula and processing procedure storage means 22 execution means 24 analysis data storage means 30 CPU 31 memory 32 display device 33 printer 35 input device 36 external storage device 37 communication device

Claims (19)

[Claims] 1. A financial analysis system comprising the following elements. a) input means for inputting financial data; b) financial data storage means for storing the input financial data; c) creation from the stored financial data based on a difference between a profit and a cash flow. A first means for generating analytical data on business continuity, a second means for generating analytical data on revenue-generating policies and capabilities, including a return on invested capital, and a cash-flow generating policy and capabilities; Third analysis means for generating analysis data, fourth analysis means for generating analysis data on investment policies and capabilities including the profitability of capital investment, and financial policies including comparison data of interest-bearing debt and shareholders' equity And analysis data generating means for generating analysis data relating to performance, and d) being connected to the analysis data generating means, Output means for outputting the data. 2. The method according to claim 1, wherein each of the analysis units is capable of generating a digital evaluation value in a plurality of stages according to a degree of deviation from an average level that is a theoretical normal value. The financial analysis system according to claim 1, wherein 3. The financial analysis system according to claim 1, wherein the analysis data creating unit creates comprehensive evaluation data of a company in which output data of each of the analysis units is given a predetermined weight. . 4. The analysis data creating means includes a conversion means for converting each of the analysis data into one graph display data, and the output means includes a screen display means capable of displaying the graph display data on a screen. The financial analysis system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, further comprising: 5. The conversion means of the analysis data creating means can further selectively convert the financial data, which is various element data for generating each of the analysis data, into graph display data. 5. The financial analysis system according to claim 1, wherein said screen display means is capable of simultaneously displaying one or a plurality of graph display data converted by said conversion means on a screen. 6. The input means further includes communication control means for receiving the financial data from an external device and storing the received financial data in the financial data storage means. The financial analysis system according to any one of claims 1 to 5. 7. Each of the analysis means creates analysis data by performing a predetermined correction process even if a part of the financial data item serving as analysis element data does not exist. Item 7. The financial analysis system according to any one of Items 1 to 6. 8. The financial analysis system further stores a description including an interpretation, a meaning, and a prediction method of the analysis data created by the analysis data creating means, and displays the explanation of the analysis data as required. The financial analysis system according to claim 1, further comprising a comment display unit. 9. The financial analysis system comprises: a) a processor for executing a predetermined program; b) a memory respectively connected to the processor;
C) an external storage device, an input device and an output device; and c) a program stored in the memory or the external storage device, wherein the input device, the output device, the financial data storage device, the analysis data creation device, /
Or the comment storage means is the processor, the memory, the external storage device, the input device, the output device,
The financial analysis system according to any one of claims 1 to 8, wherein the financial analysis system comprises: 10. A financial analysis method comprising the following steps. a) inputting financial data; b) storing the input financial data in a financial data storage means; c) based on a difference between a profit and a cash flow from the stored financial data. Analysis data on business continuity, profitability policies and capabilities including return on invested capital, analysis data on cash flow creation policies and capabilities, and investment including profitability of capital investment Generating analytical data on policies and capabilities, and analytical data on financial policies and capabilities, including comparison data of interest-bearing debt and shareholders'equity; and d) outputting the analytical data. 11. The analysis data creating step c) includes, from each created analysis data, a step of creating a digital evaluation value of a plurality of stages according to a degree of deviation from an average level regarded as a theoretical normal value. The financial analysis method according to claim 10, further comprising: 12. The analysis data creating step c) further includes a step of creating comprehensive evaluation data of a company in which the created analysis data is given a predetermined weight. Financial analysis method. 13. The analysis data creation step c) further includes a conversion step of converting each of the analysis data into one graph display data, and the step d) of outputting the analysis data includes displaying the graph display data on a screen. 13. A screen display step which can be displayed on the screen.
The financial analysis method according to any one of the above. 14. The analysis data generating step c) further includes a step of selectively converting the financial data, which is a component for generating the analysis data, into graph display data, and outputting the analysis data. 11. The method according to claim 10, wherein the step d) comprises a step of displaying the converted one or more graph display data simultaneously on a screen.
14. The financial analysis method according to any one of items 13 to 13. 15. The financial analysis according to any one of claims 10 to 14, wherein the step of inputting financial data a) further comprises the step of receiving the financial data from an external device. Method. 16. The step d) of outputting the analysis data further stores a description including an interpretation, a meaning, and a prediction method of the analysis data created in the analysis data creation step c), and the analysis is performed on demand. The financial analysis method according to any one of claims 10 to 15, further comprising a comment display step of displaying commentary of the data. 17. A computer-readable information recording medium storing a computer program having a procedure for realizing each step of the financial analysis method according to claim 10. Description: 18. The information recording medium according to claim 17, wherein the information recording medium records the computer program on a compact disk, a floppy (registered trademark) disk, a hard disk, or a magnetic recording tape. . 19. A computer program comprising an execution instruction set and a data set for realizing each step of the financial analysis method according to claim 10. Description: