JP2002251512A - System and method for controlling sales prediction of component - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To make a maker of industrial machine facilities provide service for expendable parts timely to a customer. SOLUTION: This system has an actual result database of a monthly part sale classified by customer, a database extraction means for preparing an actual result database of a monthly part sale of cycle parts classified by customer and an actual result database of a monthly part sale of parts manufactured each time classified by customer, the first prediction means, a difference judging means, a cause grasping means, the second prediction means and an output means.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

The present invention relates to a method for predicting the sales of parts. In particular, the present invention relates to a component sales prediction method suitable for industrial machinery and the like in which cycle parts and parts manufactured each time are mixed.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, a vending apparatus for replacing a consumable part of a vehicle with a part is known (for example, Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No.
No. 7579). However, for example, consumable parts related to industrial machinery such as casting equipment, surface treatment equipment, and various types of assembling equipment have different consumption times depending on the operating rate of the customer's equipment and processing conditions. It is difficult to predict the degree.
In addition, industrial machinery and equipment may partially overhaul the units that make up the equipment, and this is one of the causes of the difficulty in predicting the degree of wear of consumable parts related to industrial machinery and equipment. Has become. For this reason, the industrial machine equipment manufacturer may not be able to provide timely service to the customer, and the customer needs to secure more parts than an appropriate amount of consumable parts.

[0003]

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The present invention has been made in view of the above problems, and is intended to provide a manufacturer of industrial machinery and equipment with a service for consumable parts to a customer in a timely manner. It is an object of the present invention to provide a parts sales forecast management system and method capable of performing the following.

[0004]

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION In order to achieve the above object, a parts sales forecast management system according to the present invention uses a results database of monthly sales of parts for each customer and a database of the results. A database extraction means for extracting and creating a database of the results of monthly parts sales by customer for cycle parts and a results database of monthly parts sales by customer for manufactured parts each time, and a cycle part. A first forecasting means for predicting monthly contract forecasts for each customer from a database of past sales results, and, when the component sales forecast is a cycle part, comparing the monthly contract forecast for each customer with the sales results for each customer. Difference determination means for determining whether or not the sales performance is as expected according to the contract forecast; cause determination means for analyzing the past database to determine the cause when the performance is lower than expected; Is the place for production parts The second forecasting means for predicting the monthly closing by customer from the factors affecting the production each time, and comparing the monthly closing by customer and the sales performance by parts by customer to judge whether the sales performance is as expected for the closing Means for judging the difference, a cause grasping means for analyzing the past database and grasping a cause when the actual result is lower than the forecast, a first predicting means, a second predicting means, and a cause. Output means for visually outputting the result of the grasp means. According to the present invention, even in the case of industrial machinery and equipment in which cycle parts and production parts are mixed, the industrial machinery equipment manufacturer manages the parts sales forecast management of cycle parts and the parts sales prediction management of production parts each time. Can be performed with high accuracy, and services to customers can be realized in a timely manner.

Another embodiment of the present invention is characterized in that, when the performance database is created, a purchase motive, for example, maintenance inspection diagnosis, exhaustion, spare, sudden, periodic replacement. The parts sales forecast management system described in claim 1 can be used. According to the present invention,
By inputting maintenance inspection diagnosis, wear, spare, sudden, and regular replacement, more detailed forecast management of parts sales of cycle parts and parts sales prediction management of manufactured parts can be realized.

Further, as an embodiment of the present invention, when the performance database is created, the customer classification, for example, the industry to which the customer belongs, the customer scale, the customer production capacity, the production item,
A parts sales forecast management system including at least one of a location, a delivery record, a machine-based share, and a distinction between a manufacturer and a subcontractor (manufacturer classification) can be provided. According to the present invention, when creating a performance database,
By entering at least one of customer classifications, for example, the industry to which the customer belongs, the customer scale, the customer production capacity, the production item, the location, the delivery record, the machine-specific share, and the manufacturer distinction, it is possible to further fine-tune for similar customers. In addition, it is possible to realize the parts sales forecast management of cycle parts and the parts sales forecast management of manufactured parts each time.

[0007] In addition, as an embodiment of the present invention, a database of the results of parts sales by customer per month is provided in a server and is created by inputting records from a plurality of client terminals. And a parts sales prediction management system characterized in that the first prediction means and the second prediction means are constituted by software operated on the client side. Can be. According to the present invention, a sales person in each place corresponding to a customer can perform input and analysis, and service to the customer can be smoothly performed.

Further, as an embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a program for implementing the above-mentioned invention and a component management prediction management method.

Here, in the present invention, the database of the results of sales of parts by month for each customer is a database of the results of sales of parts for each month of each customer. This data base
The minimum categories are customer, person in charge, machine model, part number (part number), part name (article name), order date, cycle category, that is, whether or not a cycle part, order quantity, and order price. Make up. Further, this database can be added with other data such as maintenance / inspection diagnosis, consumption, spare, sudden, and regular replacement as categories of purchase motivation (FIG. 8). . Further, the database includes a customer classification, for example, an industry to which the customer belongs, a customer scale, a customer production capacity, a production item, a location, a delivery record, a machine share, and a distinction between a manufacturer and a subcontractor ( A component sales forecast management system including at least one of (manufacturer categories) can be provided (FIG. 9). Note that a part name and a part number may be added to the machine-specific share. This allows more detailed analysis. Further, as a sales route, a direct transaction, via an agency, via a trading company, or the like may be input. The classification of the contractor or the name of the contractor may be input. The extraction means, for example, that a small database in which a specific category is the same data from a base database.
This means that the data is created from the original database. It does not matter whether it is read out and visualized. The cycle part is a part that is assumed to be periodically replaced, for example, a consumable part. What is a part manufactured each time?
Unit replacement and over-
A part produced by a hole or the like and manufactured each time. The database extraction means is not limited as long as it is software having a sort function, for example.

[0010] Past sales data on cycle parts
The first prediction means for predicting the monthly contract forecast for each customer from the database can be realized by using, for example, a multi-dimensional database utilizing a multi-dimensional data analysis technology (Japanese Patent Laid-Open Publication No. see Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 10-171777). Further, a part of the primary prediction means can be realized by commercially available software, and the primary prediction means can be realized in combination with this. In this case, a sort function, a spreadsheet function, a multivariate analysis function and the like are used.

The difference determining means for comparing the monthly contract forecast for each customer with the sales results for each part for each customer to determine whether or not the sales result is in accordance with the contract forecast is, for example, subtracting the actual number from the target number for each date. The calculated difference is calculated, and it is determined whether or not the value has become larger than the reference value. It is also possible to display a graph by displaying the number of targets and the number of results for each customer on the vertical axis and the date on the horizontal axis.

As the cause grasping means for grasping the cause, a function of automatically finding a characteristic category using the above-mentioned multidimensional database and presenting it to the user can be used. The aforementioned JP-A-10-171777 has a description of its function.

[0013] In the case where the component sales forecast is a part manufactured each time, the second predicting means for predicting a contract by month for each customer from a factor affecting the manufacturing each time, for example, the frequency at which a part manufactured each time occurs in industrial machinery and equipment, The database is compiled in association with the factors that affect the production each time, that is, the machine type, unit, construction site, part name, required quantity, part price, etc. Is to predict. For example, the amount of parts produced each time a construction article is generated can be predicted by designating a past construction article, a machine model, a construction site, and the like. This is effective when partially overhauling the units constituting the industrial machine equipment, and it is possible to predict the manufactured parts each time. This also makes it possible to realize the second prediction means using the commercially available software. However, since the frequency of production is low, it is necessary to input past history for a long time.

The output means for visually outputting can be in any form, such as a personal computer screen, a screen of a mobile electronic terminal such as a mobile phone, or the like. Further, the results of the cause analysis unit and the difference determination unit can be extracted and charted or graphed by extracting only necessary categories. This includes a variety of applique - have been sold and Deployment software. By changing the extraction conditions, it is possible to narrow down the display targets according to the analysis means and the judgment means. For example, by changing record of monthly sales per customer (FIG. 12) to the machine per month sales record (Fig. 13), grasps the customer difference of the same machine, timely - a service to the customer - bis possible become.

[0015]

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the overall configuration of a parts sales forecast management system according to the present invention. In FIG. 1, the parts sales forecast management system of the present invention is shown in FIG. 4 which is extracted based on conditions by the database for the actual sales of parts for each customer shown in FIG. 3 and the database extraction means. Visualization of the performance database of monthly parts sales by customer for cycle parts and the performance database of monthly parts sales by customer for each time production parts shown in FIG. Has become. Further, the parts sales prediction management system of the present invention has first prediction means for predicting cycle parts and second prediction means for predicting manufactured parts each time. The second predicting means predicts a customer-by-customer monthly contract from factors that affect production each time. Then, a customer-based monthly contract conclusion prediction database of cycle parts and a customer-specific monthly contract conclusion prediction database of manufactured parts using the first prediction means and the second prediction means are visualized. It is possible. In addition, the parts sales forecast management system of the present invention includes a difference determining means (FIG. 6, FIG. 6) for comparing the monthly contract forecast for each customer with the sales results for each part for each customer to determine whether the sales results are as expected. FIG. 7). Further, the parts sales forecast management system of the present invention has a cause grasping means for analyzing the past database and grasping the cause, which is used when the actual result is lower than the forecast. Further, the parts sales prediction management system of the present invention has output means for visually outputting the results of the first prediction means, the second prediction means, and the cause grasping means.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of the overall flow of the parts sales forecast management system of the present invention. In FIG. 1, the overall flow of the parts sales prediction management system of the present invention is as follows. First, as a first step, a database of the results of monthly sales of parts for each customer (FIG. 3) is extracted into cycle parts and parts manufactured each time, and the results data of sales of parts for each cycle of the cycle parts and parts manufactured each time is collected. A database is created (FIGS. 4 and 5). FIG. 4 is a result of extracting a performance database of customer-specific monthly sales of only cycle parts from a performance database of monthly sales of parts by customer (FIG. 3). FIG. 5 is a database of the results of parts sales by customer and month (FIG. 3).
From the actual sales data of monthly parts only
This is the result of extracting a database. Next, as a second stage, when the parts to be sold are cycle parts, the contract conclusion forecast for each month predicted by the customer based on the past sales performance database on the cycle parts and the current month corresponding to the sales performance for the customer parts. By comparing the minutes, it is determined whether or not the sales results are as expected in the contract (FIGS. 6 and 7). FIG. 6 is a comparison table of monthly contract forecasts for each customer and sales results for each customer. This comparison table functions as a result display of the difference determining means. FIG.
Is a daily comparison table of customer-specific monthly contract forecasts and customer-specific parts sales performance. This daily comparison table also functions as a result display of the difference determining means. FIG. 10 and FIG. 11 show specific past numerical values input and displayed. In FIG. 10, numerical values for the past three years are input, and based on the numerical values, the monthly prediction and the actual results in FIG. 11 are displayed. Then, as a third stage, when the actual result is lower than the prediction, the past data is used.
Analyze the database to understand the cause. For example, by analyzing FIG. 10, the name of a machine that is selling well and the name of a machine that is late selling can be found. Further, by sorting by customer and person in charge, it becomes possible to find the cause. Then, as a fourth step, if the parts to be sold are parts manufactured each time, the sales results for each customer are compared with the monthly contract forecasts for each customer predicted based on customer requirements and machine diagnosis, and the sales results for each customer are compared with the sales forecasts. It is determined whether or not (FIGS. 6 and 7). As a fifth step, when the actual result is lower than the prediction, the past database is analyzed to grasp the cause. The order of the second and fourth stages can be changed by selection. In this way, component sales forecast management is performed.

[0017]

The parts sales forecast management system of the present invention
As is clear from the above description, a performance database of monthly parts sales by customer, and a performance database of monthly parts sales by customer by extracting the performance database and extracting the performance database. Data on monthly sales of parts manufactured by customer for each time
Database extracting means for creating a service, first forecasting means for forecasting a monthly closing forecast for each customer from a past sales performance database for cycle parts, and a case where the part sales forecast is a cycle part. Means for comparing difference forecasts for each customer by month and sales performance for each customer for the parts to determine whether the sales results are in accordance with the forecasts for the contracts; and when the results are lower than the forecasts, the database of the past is used. And a second predicting means for predicting each customer's monthly contract based on factors affecting production each time the parts sales forecast is a manufactured part, and a customer-specific monthly contract. A difference judging means for comparing the sales results for each customer for each part to judge whether the sales results are as expected or not, and analyzing the past database to grasp the cause when the results are lower than expected A source that can be And grasping means, said first prediction means,
Since the second prediction means and the output means for visually outputting the result of the cause grasping means are provided, even in the case of industrial machine equipment in which cycle parts and parts manufactured each time are mixed, the Machinery and equipment manufacturers can accurately predict and manage the sales of parts for cycle parts and the sales of parts manufactured each time, and realize services to customers in a timely manner. is Chodai.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the overall configuration of a parts sales prediction management system of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of the overall flow of the parts sales prediction management system of the present invention.

FIG. 3 is a data table of the results of sales of parts by customer and by month according to the present invention.
FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of a service.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of a performance database of monthly parts sales by customer for cycle parts according to the present invention.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of a database of the results of sales of parts manufactured by customers for each month according to the present invention.

FIG. 6 is an example of a visualized image of a difference determination unit of the present invention.

FIG. 7 is an example of a visualized image of a difference determination unit of the present invention.

FIG. 8 is a result data base of monthly sales of parts by customer according to the present invention.
FIG. 9 is a diagram showing another example of the software.

FIG. 9 is a data record of sales of parts by customer according to the present invention;
FIG. 10 is a diagram showing still another example of the process.

FIG. 10 is a diagram showing still another example (when the past is displayed) of the performance database of monthly parts sales by customer according to the present invention.

FIG. 11 is a diagram showing monthly predicted results from a database of results of monthly sales of parts by customer according to the present invention.

FIG. 12 is a diagram showing another example of a performance database (for each customer) of monthly parts sales for each customer according to the present invention.

FIG. 13 is a diagram showing another example of a performance database (for each machine) of monthly sales of parts by customer according to the present invention.

Claims (9)

[Claims] [1] Data record of parts sales by customer and by month
And a database for extracting the performance database and the performance database of monthly parts sales by customer for cycle parts and the performance database for monthly parts sales by customer for each time production parts. -Database extraction means, first prediction means for predicting monthly contract forecasts for each customer based on past sales performance data relating to cycle parts, and monthly contracts for each customer if the component sales forecast is cycle parts. A difference judging means for comparing the forecast with the sales performance of the parts for each customer to judge whether or not the sales performance is in accordance with the contract forecast; and, when the performance is lower than the forecast, analyzing the past database to determine the cause. Means for grasping the cause, second forecasting means for predicting each customer's monthly contract based on factors affecting production each time the parts sales forecast is a manufactured part, and customer's monthly contract and the customer's parts Compare sales results Difference determination means for determining whether or not the result is in accordance with the contract forecast; cause determination means for analyzing the past database to determine the cause when the actual result is lower than the prediction; Prediction means, second prediction means,
Output means for visually outputting the result of the cause grasping means. 2. When creating the performance database,
2. The parts sales forecast management system according to claim 1, wherein a purchase motive is entered. 3. The parts sales forecast management system according to claim 2, wherein the purchase motive is a maintenance inspection diagnosis, a wear, a spare, a sudden, or a periodic replacement. 4. When creating the performance database,
2. The parts sales forecast management system according to claim 1, wherein a customer classification is entered. 5. The industry in which the customer classification belongs to the customer, customer scale, customer production capacity, production items, location, delivery record,
5. The parts sales forecast management system according to claim 4, wherein the system includes at least one of a machine-based share and a distinction between a manufacturer and a subcontractor. 6. The database according to claim 1, wherein the database of the results of parts sales by customer for each month is provided in a server, and is created by inputting records from a plurality of client terminals. Parts sales forecast management system. 7. The parts sales prediction management system according to claim 1, wherein the first prediction means and the second prediction means are constituted by software operated on a client side. 8. A data base of monthly sales of parts by customer.
To extract the nest cycle parts customer by month parts sales performance data of - eat - scan and each time production parts customer by month parts sales performance data of - eat - and the ability to create a scan, past sales performance on the cycle parts A function for predicting monthly contract forecasts for each customer from the database, and when parts sales forecasts are cycle parts, comparing the monthly contract forecasts for each customer and the sales results for each customer, the sales results are forecasted. A judgment function for judging whether or not the result is satisfied, a cause grasping function for grasping the cause by analyzing the past database when the actual result is lower than the forecast, and a function for grasping the cause when the parts sales forecast is a manufactured part each time. A function for predicting monthly contracts by customer from factors affecting production each time, and a judgment function of comparing sales results by customer and monthly sales by customer and comparing the sales results by parts by customer to judge whether or not the sales results are as expected for contracts, Actual is below forecast In some cases, parts sales forecast management for realizing a cause grasping function for analyzing the past database to grasp the cause and a function for visually outputting the results of the prediction function and the cause grasping function. program. 9. Data record of parts sales by customer and monthly
To extract the cycle parts into cycle parts and as-built parts, and to create a database of the actual results of cycle parts and as-built parts by customer per month, and, if the parts to be sold are cycle parts, cycle parts Comparing the monthly sales forecast by customer predicted from the past sales performance database with the current month corresponding to the sales performance by parts by customer to determine whether the sales performance is as expected. When the actual results are lower than the forecasts, the past database is analyzed to understand the cause, and when the parts to be sold are manufactured parts each time, the customer contracts and monthly contracts forecasted by the customer based on the customer's request and machine diagnosis. Comparing the forecast with the sales performance of each part for each customer to judge whether the sales performance is as expected, and when the performance is lower than the forecast, analyze the past database to understand the cause You Parts sales forecast management method characterized by comprising the steps, a.