JP2001289961A - Heavy rain forecasting system - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To add an effect such as topography having great influence on the vicissitudes and a rainfall state being a changing element of rain area, to a conventional rainfall forecast performed on condition that the rain area moves. SOLUTION: The rain area is tracked by a tracking means 2 on the basis of a reflected wave being received by a meteorological radar device 1 and showing a reflection intensity value, a Doppler speed value and a particle shape. While calculating a forecast moving speed of the rain area by a forecast speed calculating means 5 from a tracking result, the past example similar to a present rain area is searched by a past example searching means 4 on the basis of the reflected wave received by the meteorological radar device 1. A heavy rain is forecast by a heavy rain forecasting means 7 by using a forecast speed and the past example of the rain area to judge risk from a forecast result to be displayed on a heavy rain risk display means 9.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a heavy rain forecasting system for predicting heavy rain using a weather radar device.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Conventional rainfall prediction devices include those described in, for example, JP-A-10-260267, JP-A-9-61546 and JP-A-10-177076. FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram illustrating a conventional torrential rain prediction apparatus, which is described in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 10-260267. In FIG. 6, reference numeral 1 denotes a weather radar device that emits electromagnetic waves into the air and captures reflected waves from objects (meteorological particles) in the air, 2 denotes a tracking unit that tracks weather particles from the output of the weather radar device 1, and 3 Is heavy rain prediction means for predicting heavy rain from the output of the tracking means 2.

FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram showing another conventional heavy rain forecasting apparatus, which is described in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 9-61546. 7, reference numerals 1 to 3 are the same as those in FIG. Reference numeral 4 denotes past case search means for searching past rain area cases, and reference numeral 5 denotes prediction speed calculation means for calculating a predicted movement speed in the rain area from the output of the tracking means 2 and the past case search means 4, and its output is estimated for heavy rainfall. Supply to means 3. FIG. 8 is a schematic diagram showing another conventional heavy rain forecasting apparatus, which is described in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 10-177076. 8, reference numerals 1 to 3 and 5 are the same as those in FIG. Reference numeral 6 denotes a ground-based telemeter device that transmits data of the ground-based rain gauge to the heavy rain forecasting means 3.

The weather radar device 1 shown in FIGS. 6 to 8
Is predicted by accurately estimating the moving speed in the rainy area, as shown in JP-A-10-260267 and JP-A-9-61546.
A method of estimating the amount of rainfall by moving the rain area,
As disclosed in Japanese Patent Application No. 177076, there is a method of predicting rainfall by predicting the rise and fall of a rainy region as the vehicle moves.

[0005]

Conventional rainfall prediction is based on the assumption that the rain area moves as described above.
It was hard to say that the change factor of the rain area, that is, the effect of topography and the like that greatly affected the rise and fall and the rainfall state was taken into account. In addition, the display only showed future rainfall, and it was hard to say that the particularities of the area and the cases of past heavy rain disasters were utilized.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The present invention has been made to solve the above problems, and an object of the present invention is to provide a heavy rain forecasting system capable of accurately predicting heavy rain and displaying the danger of heavy rain clearly. And

[0007]

In a heavy rain forecasting system according to the present invention, a meteorological radar device for emitting a radio wave and receiving a reflected wave reflected from meteorological particles, and a reflected wave received by the meteorological radar device Tracking means for tracking a rainy area based on the information, a predicted speed calculating means for calculating a predicted moving speed in the rainy area from a tracking result tracked by the tracking means, and a current rain based on a reflected wave received by the weather radar device. Case search means for searching for past cases similar to the area, and heavy rain forecasting using the predicted movement speed of the rain area calculated by the predicted speed calculation means and the past case searched by the past case search means It is provided with prediction means.

In addition, there is provided a danger determining means for determining the danger of heavy rain predicted by the heavy rain prediction means, and a heavy rain danger display means for displaying the danger of heavy rain determined by the danger determination means. It is. Further, a rise and fall judgment means for judging the rise and fall of the current rain area from the tracking result of the rain area by the tracking means, and a rise and fall prediction means for predicting the rise and fall of the future rain area from the judgment result of the rise and fall of the rain area by the rise and fall judgment means. The torrential rain forecasting means predicts a torrential rain using the result of ups and downs prediction in the rain area by the ups and downs predicting means.

In addition, a ground telemetry device for collecting weather data on the ground is provided, and the past case search means uses the weather data on the ground collected by the ground telemeter device for searching for past cases. In addition, a high-rise weather observation device for collecting high-rise weather data is provided, and the past case search means uses the high-rise weather data collected by the high-rise weather observation device to search for past cases.

[0010]

DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS Embodiment 1 Hereinafter, a first embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram showing a torrential rain forecasting system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention. 1 is a weather radar device that emits electromagnetic waves into the air and captures reflected waves from objects (meteorological particles) in the air;
Is a tracking means for tracking a rainy region from the output of the weather radar device 1, and at least one of a reflection intensity value from a weather particle, a Doppler velocity of the weather particle, and a particle shape of the weather particle, which is an output of the weather radar device 1. Tracking is performed by capturing the characteristics of two spatial distributions. 4 uses the output of the weather radar device 1,
A past case search unit that searches for past cases in the rainy area and obtains a similar example. The past case search means selects one of the spatial distribution of the reflected wave intensity value, the spatial distribution of the Doppler velocity, and the spatial distribution of the particle shape output from the weather radar device 1. Based on one, search for similar examples. Reference numeral 5 denotes a predicted speed calculating means for calculating a predicted moving speed in a rainy area from the tracking result of the tracking means 2, and reference numeral 7 denotes a search by the predicted moving speed in the rain area calculated by the predicted speed calculating means 5 and the past case searching means 4. Heavy rain forecasting means for predicting heavy rain based on similar examples. Reference numeral 8 denotes a heavy rain risk determining means for determining a heavy rain danger from the heavy rain prediction result predicted by the heavy rain prediction means 7, and 9 is a heavy rain danger display means for displaying the heavy rain danger determined by the risk determining means 8.

The heavy rain forecasting system configured as described above operates as follows. The weather radar device 1 obtains at least one of a reflection intensity value from weather particles, a Doppler velocity of weather particles, and a particle shape distribution of weather particles. Capturing at least one of the spatial distribution characteristics of the obtained reflection intensity value from the meteorological particles, the Doppler velocity of the meteorological particles, and the particle shape of the meteorological particles, the tracking means 2 tracks the rain area to obtain a tracking result. . From the tracking result obtained by the tracking means 2, the predicted speed calculating means 5 obtains a predicted moving speed in the rainy region.

On the other hand, based on at least one spatial distribution of the reflection intensity value obtained by the weather radar device 1, the Doppler velocity of the weather particles, and the particle shape of the weather particles, the past case retrieving means 4 searches for the past rainfall. Search the area and get a similar example similar to this one. Using the predicted moving speed obtained above and similar examples, the heavy rain forecasting means 7 predicts heavy rain and obtains a heavy rain forecast result. Next, the danger determining means 8 classifies the heavy rain prediction result with a predetermined threshold to obtain a heavy rain danger, and causes the heavy rain danger display means 9 to display the danger. Therefore, it is possible to display the risk level of the heavy rain forecasting result in consideration of the movement of the heavy rain and the specialty of the region based on the past case, so that the risk level due to the heavy rain can be displayed easily.

According to the first embodiment, the weather radar device 1
From the data obtained by predicting the movement of rainy areas and performing comprehensive downpours including past cases, predicting downpours with high accuracy and determining the degree of danger You can understand the danger of heavy rain even if you are not an expert.

Embodiment 2 FIG. FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram showing a torrential rain prediction system according to Embodiment 2 of the present invention. In FIG. 2, 1, 2, 4, 5, and 7 to 9 are the same as those in FIG. Reference numeral 11 denotes rise and fall judgment means for judging rise and fall of the rain area from the tracking result by the tracking means 2 and obtaining rise and fall judgment results. Reference numeral 12 denotes rise and fall prediction results based on the rise and fall judgment results determined by the rise and fall judgment means 11. The rise and fall prediction results are supplied to the heavy rain forecasting means 7.

In the first embodiment, the heavy rain is predicted from the predicted moving speed and a similar example. In the second embodiment, the rising / falling state of the rain area is determined by the rising / falling determining means 11 from the tracking result.
A rise / fall judgment result is obtained, and rise / fall prediction means 12 performs rise / fall prediction based on the rise / fall judgment result. Further, the heavy rain forecasting result is obtained by the heavy rain forecasting means 7 by using the rise and fall prediction results together with the predicted moving speed and similar examples, thereby improving the accuracy of heavy rain prediction.

According to the second embodiment, it is possible to obtain the effect that the heavy rain can be accurately predicted by adding the judgment of the rise and fall of the rainfall and the prediction.

Embodiment 3 FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram showing a torrential rain prediction system according to Embodiment 3 of the present invention. 3, 1, 2, 4, 5, and 7 to 12 are the same as those in FIG. Reference numeral 13 denotes a ground telemeter device that obtains ground weather data and supplies it to the past case search means 4. In the second embodiment, the past case is searched for at least one of the reflection intensity value, the Doppler velocity of the weather particles, and the particle shape distribution of the weather particles obtained by the weather radar device 1, In the third embodiment, by adding the ground weather data obtained from the ground telemeter device 13 to this, the past case search means 4 searches for past cases in the rainy area, thereby obtaining a more appropriate similar example. As a result, it is possible to improve the accuracy of heavy rain prediction.

According to the third embodiment, a more appropriate similar example can be obtained by adding the surface weather data obtained by the ground telemeter device 13 to the search of the past case, and as a result, the heavy rainfall prediction becomes accurate. The effect of being able to perform well is obtained.

Embodiment 4 FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram showing a torrential rain prediction system according to Embodiment 4 of the present invention. 4, 1, 2, 4, 5, and 7 to 12 are the same as those in FIG. Reference numeral 14 denotes a high-rise weather observing device that acquires weather data at a higher altitude than the weather radar device 1 with high accuracy, and acquires weather data above the installation position. In the third embodiment, an example in which the past case is searched by adding the ground weather data obtained from the ground telemeter device 13 to the search of the past case in the rainy area has been described. By adding high-level weather data obtained from the high-level weather observation device 14 instead of the data,
As a similar example of the rain area searched by the past case search means 4, a more appropriate example can be obtained, and as a result, the accuracy of heavy rain forecast can be improved.

According to the fourth embodiment, a more appropriate similar example can be obtained by adding high-level weather data to the search of past cases, and as a result, it is possible to obtain an effect that a heavy rainfall can be accurately predicted.

Embodiment 5 FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram showing a torrential rain prediction system according to Embodiment 5 of the present invention. 5, 1, 2, 4, 5, and 7 to 13 are the same as those in FIG. 3, and 14 is the same as that in FIG. In the third and fourth embodiments, it is shown that ground weather data obtained from the ground telemeter device 13 or high weather data obtained from the high weather observation device 14 is added to the search of past cases in the rainy region. However, in the fifth embodiment, the past case is searched by the past case search means 4 by adding the data of both. By doing so, a more appropriate similar example can be obtained, and as a result, the accuracy of heavy rain prediction can be improved.

According to the fifth embodiment, ground weather data obtained by the ground telemeter device 13 and high-level weather data obtained from the high-level weather observation device 14 are added to the search for past cases in the rainy area. A similar example can be obtained, and as a result, it is possible to obtain an effect that the heavy rain can be accurately predicted.

[0023]

Since the present invention is configured as described above, it has the following effects. A meteorological radar device that emits radio waves and receives reflected waves reflected from meteorological particles, tracking means that tracks a rainy region based on reflected waves received by the weather radar device, and tracking that is tracked by the tracking means Predicted speed calculation means for calculating a predicted movement speed in a rainy area from the result; past case search means for searching for past cases similar to the current rainy area based on reflected waves received by the weather radar device; Since it is provided with the heavy rain forecasting means for predicting heavy rain using the predicted moving speed of the rain area calculated by the means and the past case searched by the past case searching means, it is possible to perform highly accurate heavy rain forecasting.

Further, there is provided a danger determining means for determining a danger of heavy rain predicted by the heavy rain prediction means, and a heavy rain danger display means for displaying the danger of heavy rain determined by the danger determination means. Even if you are not a weather expert, you can understand the danger of heavy rain. Further, a rise and fall judgment means for judging the rise and fall of the current rain area from the tracking result of the rain area by the tracking means, and a rise and fall prediction means for predicting the rise and fall of the future rain area from the judgment result of the rise and fall of the rain area by the rise and fall judgment means. The torrential rain prediction means predicts torrential rain using the prediction result of the rise and fall of the rain area by the rise and fall prediction means, so that the torrential rain prediction can be performed more accurately.

Further, the apparatus is provided with a ground telemeter device for collecting weather data on the ground, and the past case search means uses the weather data on the ground collected by the ground telemeter device for searching for past cases. It is possible to perform heavy rain forecast with higher accuracy.
In addition, a high-level weather observation device for collecting high-level weather data is provided, and the past case search means uses the high-level weather data collected by the high-level weather observation device to search for past cases. It is possible to perform heavy rain forecast with higher accuracy.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating a torrential rain prediction system according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating a torrential rain prediction system according to Embodiment 2 of the present invention.

FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram illustrating a torrential rain prediction system according to Embodiment 3 of the present invention.

FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram illustrating a torrential rain forecasting system according to a fourth embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram illustrating a torrential rain prediction system according to a fifth embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram showing a conventional torrential rain prediction device.

FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram showing another conventional heavy rain forecasting apparatus.

FIG. 8 is a schematic diagram showing another conventional heavy rain forecasting apparatus.

[Explanation of symbols]

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1 Weather radar device, 2 tracking means, 4 past case search means, 5 predicted speed calculation means, 7 heavy rain prediction means, 8
Risk determining means, 9 heavy rain risk displaying means, 11 rising and falling determining means, 12 rising and falling predicting means, 13 terrestrial telemeter device, 14 high-level weather observing instrument.

Claims (5)

[Claims] 1. A meteorological radar device that emits a radio wave and receives a reflected wave reflected from meteorological particles, a tracking unit that tracks a rain area based on a reflected wave received by the meteorological radar device, and a tracking unit that is tracked by the tracking unit. A predicted speed calculating means for calculating a predicted moving speed in a rainy region from the tracking result obtained, a past case searching means for searching for past cases similar to the current rainy region based on reflected waves received by the weather radar device, A heavy rain forecasting system comprising heavy rain forecasting means for predicting heavy rain using the predicted movement speed in the rain area calculated by the predicted speed calculating means and the past case searched by the past case searching means. 2. A danger determining means for determining a danger of heavy rain predicted by a heavy rain prediction means, and a heavy rain danger display means for displaying a danger of heavy rain determined by the danger determination means. The torrential rain forecasting system according to claim 1, wherein: 3. A rise and fall judgment means for judging rise and fall of a current rain area based on a result of tracking of a rain area by the tracking means, and a rise and fall for predicting a rise and fall of a future rain area based on a result of judgment of rise and fall of the rain area by the rise and fall judgment means. 3. The method according to claim 1, further comprising a prediction unit, wherein the heavy rain prediction unit predicts a heavy rain using the prediction result of the rise and fall of the rain area by the rise and fall prediction unit.
Heavy rain forecast system described. 4. A terrestrial telemetry device for collecting terrestrial weather data, wherein the past case search means uses the terrestrial weather data collected by the terrestrial telemeter device for searching past cases. The torrential rain forecasting system according to claim 3. 5. A high-level weather observation device for collecting high-level weather data, wherein the past case retrieval means uses the high-level weather data collected by the high-level weather observation device for searching past cases. The heavy rain forecasting system according to any one of claims 1 to 4.