JP2001106310A - Physical distribution system - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a physical distribution system capable of reducing the facility investment and manpower by eliminating need for the inventory of a great deal of articles, the concentrated requirement of manpower during a particular period. SOLUTION: This physical distribution system is provided with an order amount predicting means 1 of predicting order amount for this time based on past order result data, a preliminary delivery amount calculating means 2 of preliminarily calculating the quantity of articles to be delivered based on the predicted order amount for this time, a preliminary delivery indication means 3 of issuing assortment of the articles and/or delivery indication based on the calculated results, a fixed-order processing means 4 of obtaining the fixed order amount data for this time, a difference calculating means 5 for calculating a difference between preliminary delivery amount calculating results for this time calculated by the preliminary delivery amount calculating means 2 and the fixed order amount for this time obtained by the fixed-order processing means, and a fixed amount difference collection and delivery instruction means 6 of making instructions for delivery or bringing-back against the difference amount based on a difference between preliminary delivery amount and fixed order amount.

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a distribution system for shipping goods to a predetermined destination based on order data, and more particularly, to a method in which a relatively large amount of goods is always delivered within a short lead time from order receipt to delivery. It is suitable for effectively delivering goods to stores and users who are required to deliver the goods.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art In distribution such as distribution of goods, a distribution warehouse as shown in FIG. 7 is used. This distribution warehouse stores goods received by the sales office 25 for the manufacturer 21
And the goods delivered from the factory 22 are sorted and shipped according to stores or users as destinations 24. This logistics warehouse serves as a relay point for logistics, as well as an inventory function and collection of goods.
It has a sorting function, and performs collection / sorting / shipping processing of articles based on order (shipping) information.

FIG. 8 shows a conventional logistics system, in which an order management function 31, an order management function 32, an arrival management function 33,
It has an inventory management function 34, a collection / sorting management function 35, a shipping management function 36, and a delivery management function 37. FIG.
It shows a processing procedure in a distribution system having such a function. In this distribution system, when an order is received (step S201), inventory is allocated (step S201).
202), a collection / sorting process is performed (step S20)
3) After that, shipping processing (step S204) is performed. On the other hand, in the subsequent processing (step S205), inventory management is performed based on inventory information corresponding to inventory receipt / shipment based on receipt / shipment and prediction information on future fluctuations in order quantities (step S206). The ordering process (step S207) is performed in consideration of the lead time of arrival from the factory. When the delivery flight arrives and there is an arrival, the arrival process (step S208) is performed.

[0004]

In recent years, along with the rise of supermarkets and convenience stores, a large number of articles can be stored at a predetermined location in a very short lead time (for example, there is only three hours from order receipt to delivery). (Such as distribution centers) are increasingly required. In these cases, demands for strict logistics service levels, such as further shortage of products are not allowed, have increased the operational efficiency of logistics warehouses and the like.

[0005] More specifically, when receiving a large quantity of articles, since the order quantity every day always varies, a large amount of inventory is held in a distribution warehouse or the like so as not to cause a shortage. Accordingly, this results in a significant increase in inventory costs. Also, it is necessary to deliver a large amount of goods in a short time, so that very high collection speed is instantaneously collected in the distribution warehouse.
/ Sorting / shipping capacity will be required. For this reason,
There is also a problem that a large amount of capital investment and labor costs are required.

Generally, if the processing in the order processing is, for example, management by the order point method, the order point K is represented by K = μL + k · σ · L ^1/2 (where μ: average per order received) Order quantity, L: procurement period, k: safety factor, σ: variance of order quantity). At this time, if there is a contractor who demands a strict logistics service level, such as delivering a large quantity of goods at a low stockout rate,
The K value greatly increases due to a large increase in the parameters μ, k.

The average stock amount of the article is given by S = K + (1/2) · Ls (where Ls is the order lot size). As a result, the inventory amount in the warehouse abnormally increases with the increase of K.

[0008] Further, when there is a delivery request with a very short lead time, conventionally, T1 time (for example, 1
What should have been shipped within 2 hours) may have to be shipped within T2 hours (eg 3 hours). For this reason, it is necessary to increase the required processing capacity P1 in a series of operations from collection to sorting / shipping after receiving an order to P1 = (T1 / T2) · P0 (where P0 is the original required processing capacity). Occurs.

For this reason, large-scale capital investment such as introduction of automated logistics equipment and a large amount of human input have been necessitated.
As a result, there has been a problem that operating costs of distribution warehouses and the like have risen, and profit margins of manufacturers and factories have been squeezed.

Accordingly, the present invention is capable of delivering a large number of articles with a very short lead time and a low out-of-stock rate, as well as reducing capital investment and human input. It is intended to provide an instruction system.

[0011]

A first feature of the present invention is as follows.
Order quantity forecasting means for predicting the order quantity of the current item from the specified destination based on past order result data of the specified destination, etc., and shipping to the specified destination based on the predicted current order quantity A preliminary shipping amount calculating means for calculating the quantity of the goods in advance; a preliminary shipping instruction means for issuing a packing order and / or shipping instruction of a predetermined quantity of the goods based on the calculation result of the preliminary shipping amount calculating means; The confirmed order processing means for obtaining the order quantity confirmation data of the current article, the preliminary shipping quantity calculation result calculated by the shipping quantity calculation means for the predetermined article with respect to the predetermined destination, and the confirmed order processing means A difference amount calculating means for calculating a difference from the current confirmed order quantity, and a case where the preliminary shipment quantity is smaller than the confirmed order quantity for a predetermined article in accordance with the result of the difference amount calculating means. And a fixed-quantity difference collection / delivery instructing means for issuing an instruction of packing and / or shipping of the difference amount.

A second feature of the present invention is that the confirmed quantity difference collection and delivery instructing means issues an instruction to bring back the difference when the preliminary shipment quantity is larger than the confirmed order quantity.

[0013] A third feature of the present invention is that the preliminary shipping instruction means transfers the shipping instruction to an upstream process in the distribution process of the article, so that the article is directly delivered from the upstream process to a destination. It was done.

According to a fourth feature of the present invention, the order quantity predicting means quantifies at least a trend fluctuation and / or a periodic fluctuation and / or an irregular fluctuation of the order quantity of the article within a predetermined period in the past. It is to output the quantity calculated based on the digitized numerical value.

A fifth feature of the present invention is that the preliminary shipment quantity calculating means calculates a predetermined coefficient ki (0 ≦ ki ≦) for the current predicted order quantity Ni of the article i predicted by the order quantity prediction means.
1) is to output the quantity multiplied by 1).

A sixth feature of the present invention is that a predetermined coefficient ki
Is determined in accordance with the magnitude of the difference between the order quantity of the article within a predetermined period in the past and the order quantity predicted by the order quantity predicting means.

As described above, in the physical distribution system according to the present invention, the order quantity fluctuation forecasting means predicts the current order quantity before the order confirmation data arrives from the destination, and the preliminary shipment quantity calculating means based on the predicted value. Calculate the preliminary shipment quantity by
Further, preliminary shipping can be performed by the preliminary shipping instruction means. As a result, a series of collection / sorting / shipping / delivery operations for a predetermined quantity of articles for which orders are expected,
This can be done before the order data arrives from the destination. Then, when the order data received from the destination received by the confirmed order processing means is determined, the difference between the preliminary shipment quantity of the predetermined article and the ordered quantity is calculated by the difference amount calculating means, and the difference is determined by the determined quantity difference collection and delivery instruction means. It is only necessary to issue a shipping instruction for only the difference amount. This enables collection / sorting / shipping /
In a series of delivery operations, the quantity actually handled is greatly reduced as compared with the conventional case, and it is sufficiently possible to deliver to the destination in a short time.

If the fixed quantity difference collection and delivery instruction means issues a return instruction of the difference quantity when the preliminary shipment quantity is larger than the confirmed order quantity, the returned goods can be
The article can be distributed to other destinations that need it, and the stock article can be used effectively.

In the preliminary shipment, a shipping instruction is transferred to an upstream process such as a factory or a manufacturer in the distribution process of the article concerned, so that the product can be directly delivered from the upstream process to a destination. The amount of stock to be kept in the warehouse is greatly reduced, and mass transport directly from factories and manufacturers is possible. As a result, the efficiency of the entire distribution system can be further improved.

In addition, since the order quantity predicting means can increase the ratio ki of the spare shipment quantity as it is more accurate, the predicted quantity is accurately calculated based on the order quantity data of the article within a predetermined period in the past. . As a result, this makes it possible to further reduce the shipment volume after the order is confirmed.

The ratio ki of the spare shipment amount is preferably determined from the error level between the past estimated order amount and the confirmed order amount. That is, if the error level is high, ki is reduced to reduce the preliminary shipment amount, and if the error level is low, ki is increased to increase the preliminary shipment amount. Of course, it is preferable to configure the system so that ki can be as large as possible.

[0022]

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS An embodiment of the present invention will be described below with reference to FIGS.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the basic configuration of the physical distribution system of the present invention, and FIG. 2 is a flowchart based on the basic configuration shown in FIG.

First, at the stage when the order from the predetermined destination is not yet determined, the order quantity forecasting means 1 for predicting the current order quantity based on the past order quantity results, etc. Is predicted as accurately as possible.

Next, the preliminary shipment amount calculation means 2 calculates a numerical value of a predetermined ratio with respect to the estimated shipment amount for each article obtained earlier, and sets it as the current preliminary shipment amount. Usually, this numerical value is a numerical value greater than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to the estimated shipping amount for each article. The higher the prediction accuracy, the closer to the estimated shipping amount value.

Next, the actual shipment instruction is issued by the preliminary shipment instruction means 3 based on the current preliminary shipment amount determined above. Based on this, the goods are shipped and delivered on the first flight to the destination.

Further, when the current order from a predetermined destination is confirmed, the confirmed order processing means 4 creates order data for each article.

Next, the difference amount calculating means 5 calculates the difference amount between the order amount for each article and the preliminary shipping instruction amount.

Next, the fixed quantity difference collection / delivery instruction means 6 issues a collection / sorting / transportation instruction for each article to a predetermined destination based on the difference amount.

FIGS. 3 and 4 show an order management function, a receipt management function, an inventory management function, a collection / sorting management function, a shipping management function, and a delivery management function which are usually provided in a conventional system. 9 shows a more practical application example to which the basic configuration of the present invention shown in FIG.

In the present invention, the preliminary shipping instruction means 3 is configured to transfer the instruction information to the upstream process of the distribution warehouse, that is, to the article manufacturing factory or the supplier, and to directly transport the information from the location to the destination. Is also good. By doing so, the distribution warehouse only needs to handle the physical quantity specified by the fixed quantity difference collection / delivery instructing means 6, and as a result, there is no need to hold extra inventory for dealing with the destination.
Therefore, it is possible to reduce capital investment in a warehouse space, a distribution facility, and the like.

More specifically, for example, the preliminary shipment quantity calculated by the preliminary shipment quantity calculation means 2 is the quantity obtained by multiplying the current shipment quantity of each type predicted by the order quantity prediction means by a predetermined coefficient ki. If so, K2 = ki · μL + k · σ · L ^1/2 ... With respect to the order point K2. The average stock S2 is given by S2 = K2 + (1/2) · Ls... From the comparison between the two formulas, according to the present invention, the average stock is reduced by K1−K2, that is, (1-ki) · μL. Can be.

The order quantity predicting means 1 calculates the order quantity of the article within a predetermined period in the past based on a numerical value quantifying at least a trend fluctuation and / or a periodic fluctuation and / or an irregular fluctuation. If the configuration is such that the calculated quantity is output, the effect can be further enhanced.

Here, the specific contents of the order prediction means 1 will be described below. Usually, based on past order data,
This order volume is forecast by product line.

For the product series i, the annual order quantity change rate is set to Kli based on the trend of the annual order quantity for the past several years. Also, the monthly order volume fluctuation rate is expressed by F1i (month)
And This changes, for example, as shown in FIG. further,
The order volume fluctuation rate for each day of the week is defined as F2i (weekday). This changes, for example, as shown in FIG. On the other hand, the sudden fluctuation rate that can be predicted in advance is calculated as F3i (accidenta).
l). This change rate is a change due to, for example, a special sale date, a month end, an event, or the like. Here, K1i is a trend change,
F1i and F2i are periodic fluctuations, and F3i is a coefficient calculated by irregular fluctuation. Further, the standard deviation rate of the irregular fluctuation remaining after all the above fluctuations are canceled is set to σi.

Under the above conditions, assuming that the average daily order quantity of a certain product series in the last year is N0i, the expected order quantity Ni this time is: Ni = K1i × F1i (m) × F2i (w) × F3i
(A) × N0i. Here, m, w, and a indicate the current month, day of the week, and event, respectively.

The coefficient ki is obtained as follows.

If the expected order quantity Ni obtained above is to be reduced by, for example, 1σ of the variance, the coefficient ki for the product series i becomes ki = 1−σ.

As a result, the total amount Ntot of the pre-delivery postage is

(Equation 1) (However, i = commodity series). Here, i = product series. In practice, it is preferable to finely adjust the balance with the carry-back amount (the amount of take-out caused by too much pre-delivery amount).

As described above, in this physical distribution system, first, when an order has not yet been determined, the order quantity forecasting means 1 for predicting the current order quantity from the past order quantity results is used for each article at this time. Is calculated by the preliminary shipment amount calculation means 2 to calculate a numerical value of a predetermined ratio with respect to the estimated shipment amount for each article previously obtained, and set it as the current preliminary shipment amount. The instructing means 3 issues an actual shipping instruction based on the current preliminary shipping amount, and the goods are transported and delivered to the destination. Then, the difference data between the received order quantity and the preliminary shipping instruction quantity is calculated by the difference quantity calculating means 5, and then the predetermined quantity difference collecting and delivering instruction means 6 calculates a predetermined quantity based on the difference quantity. Collection / sorting to destination And give instructions for transport / delivery. For this reason, it is not necessary to keep a large number of articles in stock, and it is not necessary to intensively input human resources at a specific time, so that capital investment and input of human resources can be reduced. Therefore, it is possible to deliver a large number of articles with a very short lead time and a low stockout rate at low cost.

[0041]

As described above, according to the present invention, the order quantity forecasting means for predicting the current order quantity based on past order actual data, and the shipment quantity based on the predicted current order quantity. Preliminary shipping amount calculating means for calculating the number of articles to be preliminarily calculated, and preliminary shipping instruction means for issuing a packing instruction and / or shipping instruction for a predetermined number of articles based on the calculation result,
The difference between the confirmed order processing means for obtaining the current order quantity confirmation data, the current preliminary shipment quantity calculation result calculated by the shipment quantity calculation means 2, and the current order determination quantity obtained by the firm order processing means. Means for calculating a difference amount to be calculated;
According to the result of the difference amount calculation means, if the preliminary shipment amount is smaller than the confirmed order amount, an instruction for packing and / or shipping of the difference amount is issued, or the preliminary shipment amount is larger than the confirmed order amount. Is equipped with a fixed amount difference collection and delivery instruction means for issuing a return instruction of the difference amount, so that it is not necessary to keep a large amount of articles in stock, and it is not necessary to intensively input manual labor at a specific time, Investment and manual input can be reduced.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a distribution system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing a procedure in the distribution system shown in FIG.

FIG. 3 is a block diagram showing an example in which the distribution system of the present invention is applied to a conventional system.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart showing an operation procedure of the system shown in FIG. 3;

FIG. 5 is a graph showing monthly order quantity fluctuations.

FIG. 6 is a graph showing a change in order quantity for each day of the week.

FIG. 7 is a block diagram showing a conventional distribution system.

FIG. 8 is a block diagram showing functions of a conventional distribution system.

9 is a flowchart showing a procedure of the physical distribution system shown in FIG.

[Explanation of symbols]

 1 Order quantity forecasting means 2 Preliminary shipment quantity calculation means 3 Preliminary shipment instruction means 4 Fixed order processing means 5 Difference quantity calculation means 6 Fixed quantity difference collection and delivery instruction means

 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────続 き Continuing on the front page (72) Shinichiro Kumagai 1-1-25 Shinurashima-cho, Kanagawa-ku, Yokohama-shi, Kanagawa Prefecture Inside Kirin Engineering Co., Ltd. (72) Yasutaka Higashiya, Shinurashima-cho, Kanagawa-ku, Yokohama 1-1-25 Kirin Engineering Co., Ltd. F-term (reference) 3F022 AA15 MM03 MM05 MM07 MM13 MM35 MM40 5B049 BB31 CC05 CC27 EE01 EE12

Claims (6)

[Claims] An order quantity predicting means for predicting an order quantity of a current article from the predetermined destination based on past order result data of a predetermined destination, etc .; Preliminary shipping quantity calculation means for calculating the quantity of articles to be shipped to a predetermined destination in advance; and a preliminary shipping instruction for issuing a packing order and / or shipping instruction for a predetermined quantity of articles based on the calculation result of the preliminary shipping quantity calculation means. Means, confirmed order processing means for obtaining the order quantity final data of the current article from the predetermined destination, and current preliminary shipping quantity calculation result calculated by the shipping quantity calculating means for the predetermined article with respect to the predetermined destination. And a difference calculating means for calculating a difference between the current order confirmed quantity obtained by the confirmed order processing means, and a predetermined article for the predetermined article corresponding to the result of the difference calculating means. If the amount of shipment is less than the order determined amount, characterized by comprising a determined amount difference pick-up instruction means for issuing a difference amount of the load aligned and / or shipping instructions, and distribution systems. 2. The physical distribution system according to claim 1, wherein said confirmed quantity difference collection / delivery instruction means issues an instruction to bring back the difference quantity when the spare shipment quantity is larger than the confirmed order quantity. 3. The pre-shipment instructing means transfers a shipping instruction to an upstream process in a distribution process of the article, whereby the article is directly delivered from the upstream process to a destination. The logistics system according to claim 1 or 2, wherein 4. The order quantity predicting means calculates the order quantity of the article based on a numerical value obtained by quantifying at least a trend change and / or a periodic change and / or an irregular change of the order quantity of the article within a predetermined period in the past. The physical distribution system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the determined quantity is output. 5. The preliminary shipment quantity calculation means calculates a current predicted order quantity N of the article i predicted by the order quantity prediction means.
The distribution system according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein a quantity obtained by multiplying i by a predetermined coefficient ki (0 ≦ ki ≦ 1) is output. 6. The method according to claim 1, wherein the predetermined coefficient ki is determined according to a magnitude of a difference between an order quantity of the article within a predetermined period in the past and an order quantity predicted by the order quantity predicting means. The distribution system according to claim 5.