EP2575121A2 - Flugverlaufsvorhersage mit Anwendung von Umgebungsbedingungen - Google Patents

Flugverlaufsvorhersage mit Anwendung von Umgebungsbedingungen Download PDF

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Publication number
EP2575121A2
EP2575121A2 EP12185489A EP12185489A EP2575121A2 EP 2575121 A2 EP2575121 A2 EP 2575121A2 EP 12185489 A EP12185489 A EP 12185489A EP 12185489 A EP12185489 A EP 12185489A EP 2575121 A2 EP2575121 A2 EP 2575121A2
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EP
European Patent Office
Prior art keywords
flight
trajectory
information
aircraft
waypoints
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Granted
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EP12185489A
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English (en)
French (fr)
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EP2575121B1 (de
EP2575121A3 (de
Inventor
Tamara S Stewart
Louis J Bailey
Charles J Tytler
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Boeing Co
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Boeing Co
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Priority claimed from US13/250,352 external-priority patent/US9098997B2/en
Priority claimed from US13/250,241 external-priority patent/US10102753B2/en
Application filed by Boeing Co filed Critical Boeing Co
Publication of EP2575121A2 publication Critical patent/EP2575121A2/de
Publication of EP2575121A3 publication Critical patent/EP2575121A3/de
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G08SIGNALLING
    • G08GTRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G5/00Traffic control systems for aircraft
    • G08G5/20Arrangements for acquiring, generating, sharing or displaying traffic information
    • G08G5/26Transmission of traffic-related information between aircraft and ground stations
    • GPHYSICS
    • G08SIGNALLING
    • G08GTRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G5/00Traffic control systems for aircraft
    • G08G5/30Flight plan management
    • G08G5/34Flight plan management for flight plan modification
    • GPHYSICS
    • G08SIGNALLING
    • G08GTRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G5/00Traffic control systems for aircraft
    • G08G5/50Navigation or guidance aids
    • G08G5/53Navigation or guidance aids for cruising
    • GPHYSICS
    • G08SIGNALLING
    • G08GTRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G5/00Traffic control systems for aircraft
    • G08G5/70Arrangements for monitoring traffic-related situations or conditions
    • G08G5/72Arrangements for monitoring traffic-related situations or conditions for monitoring traffic
    • G08G5/727Arrangements for monitoring traffic-related situations or conditions for monitoring traffic from a ground station
    • GPHYSICS
    • G08SIGNALLING
    • G08GTRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G5/00Traffic control systems for aircraft
    • G08G5/70Arrangements for monitoring traffic-related situations or conditions
    • G08G5/76Arrangements for monitoring traffic-related situations or conditions for monitoring atmospheric conditions
    • GPHYSICS
    • G08SIGNALLING
    • G08GTRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
    • G08G5/00Traffic control systems for aircraft
    • G08G5/50Navigation or guidance aids
    • G08G5/55Navigation or guidance aids for a single aircraft

Definitions

  • the present disclosure relates generally to aircraft traffic management, and more specifically, to systems and methods for computing a predicted flight trajectory for an aircraft.
  • Flight information necessary to compute the predicted trajectory is extracted and used, along with aircraft state data, messaging, and their histories, to calculate and derive the predicted trajectory.
  • the improved predicted trajectory provides the greater accuracy needed for aviation applications and the selection of current/forecast environmental conditions, whether transmitted to an airborne platform or used for other ground-based applications.
  • the predicted trajectory includes pseudo-waypoints at flight transitions not readily available in the flight information and also includes the environmental conditions at all waypoint (including pseudo-waypoint) locations.
  • the predicted trajectory is generated in a form which may resemble the originating source or be based on a user configuration, flight parameters, or aircraft state information histories compiled and managed by an embedded knowledge system.
  • the knowledge system is an optional component, dependent on the degree of accuracy required. In the scenario where a predicted trajectory history is utilized (to compute a new predicted flight trajectory), the knowledge system also assesses the trajectory generation for use in situational awareness for internal and external function applications, either in real-time or as post-flight processing.
  • the system disclosed herein predicts, with higher fidelity and greater accuracy, a trajectory that resembles the source flight plan system's trajectory.
  • components of the source's flight plan/route which are never communicated such as the pseudo-waypoints, must be derived from aircraft messaging and state data.
  • the solution application's trajectory must apply current and forecast environmental conditions in the process of improving the predicted trajectory.
  • These calculations are performed within the constraints of known flight information. In some cases not all flight information is available when trajectory calculations are needed. In these cases, it is preferred that the flight information be derived, calculated, and extracted from available messages, or extracted from an embedded knowledge system, which utilizes past flight information and trajectory objects. Because of business considerations, another option available is to request flight information needed for trajectory object data through additional messaging (via an Airline Operations Center (AOC), Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP), data link service provider, etc.).
  • AOC Airline Operations Center
  • ANSP Air Navigation Service Provider
  • data link service provider etc.
  • the trajectory prediction solution disclosed herein can be created or updated starting at any point or in any phase in the flight profile, as well as once new information is available (flight information, aircraft state, or environmental condition updates).
  • the trajectory predictions are modifiable by threshold variables (based on business or other rules) and trajectory prediction results can be updated when these threshold variables change, trajectory format requirements change, or the flight information/route changes.
  • the system disclosed herein generates a predicted flight trajectory using a combination of aircraft state data, flight information, environmental information, historical data or derived flight information from aircraft messaging which can be used for the transmission of environmental data.
  • Flight information necessary to compute the predicted trajectory (such as waypoints, their locations, estimated time of arrivals (ETAs) at those waypoints, and fuel remaining) is extracted and used, along with aircraft state data, messaging, and their histories, to calculate and derive the predicted trajectory.
  • the predicted trajectory includes pseudo-waypoints at flight transitions not readily available in the flight information and the environmental conditions at all waypoint (including pseudo-waypoint) locations. Thereafter the generated trajectory prediction is assigned confidence and accuracy levels based on fidelity, merit or reliability.
  • the process/method to create a predicted trajectory(s) for a flight begins with receiving a flight information message.
  • the flight information message may be from an aircraft to a ground station, from a ground source to a ground station, or from an alternate source to an unspecified location (including both source and trajectory solution on airborne platforms, not necessarily the same platform).
  • An aircraft can downlink the flight information in a variety of formats using a variety of methods. It can be transmitted from an aircraft via ACARS, ATN or some other aircraft datalink technology (e.g., broadband satellite IP). From ground sources, the message can be transmitted and received in any unique format specified by the user (e.g., an AOC) or as standardized ground messaging formats (e.g., Type B message format). If used in an airborne system, this process/method could be realized in software or hardware form, and use either air-to-air datalink communications paths or on-board networking, or receive inputs directly from an on-board flight management computer.
  • the system seen in FIG. 1 optionally comprises a flight information message manager 12, which is a processor that receives an incoming flight information message 10.
  • the flight information message manager 12 may be included for the purpose of optimizing the creation of a flight object, which is a generic container comprising a multiplicity of fields containing flight information, such as elements of flight plans, flight routes, flight trajectories, etc.
  • the flight object may also contain associated aircraft state data such as weight, center of gravity, fuel remaining, etc. If configured, the flight information message manager 12 would process the flight information and pass the flight plan/route to a flight plan/route processor 14. If the flight information message manager 12 is not included in the configuration, the flight plan/route message 10 would be passed directly to the flight plan/route processor 14 for use in creating a flight object.
  • the flight plan/route processor 14 uses data retrieved from a navigation database 16 to convert (e.g., by decoding and translation) flight plan/route information contained in the incoming message 10 into a flight plan/route comprising a list of waypoints and associated flight information.
  • the elements of the decoded and translated flight plan/route are stored in fields of the flight object (along with aircraft type and equipage), where they are available for use by the flight plan/route processor 14 and a flight trajectory predictor 18.
  • the flight object may reside in a separate processor that manages the flight object.
  • the flight plan/route processor 14 After the list of waypoints representing the flight plan/route has been derived by the flight plan/route processor 14, it sends a message to the flight trajectory predictor 18 (or other processor) informing the latter that the flight plan/route is available for processing. Alternatively, the flight plan/route processor 14 sends the flight object to the flight trajectory predictor 18. In this alternative example, no message need be sent informing the user that the flight object is ready for retrieval.
  • the flight trajectory predictor 18 (which is also a processor) receives the flight object containing a list of waypoints making up a flight plan/route from the flight plan/route processor 14 and then calculates an updated predicted flight trajectory 22 based on that flight plan/route, an original flight trajectory (if available), the aircraft type and how it is equipped, current and/or forecast environmental conditions retrieved from an environmental database 20, and other information described in more detail below.
  • the flight trajectory predictor 18 can receive a flight object from any process.
  • the flight trajectory predictor 18 performs the function of creating a complete trajectory or updating an existing one using the most current information received from flight information messages for that flight, adding pseudo-waypoints at flight transitions not explicit in the flight information and selecting the environmental conditions as well as calculating other metadata associated with all waypoint (and pseudo-waypoint) locations.
  • the trajectory prediction process can start at any point in any phase of flight, and modifies its process methods/components as appropriate to the aircraft state and flight information available in messages, known to be available about that phase, known to be available about a future phase, and/or provided by a knowledge system.
  • Flight information available through messaging varies based on the source, aircraft type, configuration parameters, flight state and phase, and other conditions, and trajectory prediction calculations needed may differ by source, aircraft type, state, and phase of flight as well as user configuration information provided.
  • the flight trajectory predictor may receive information on the data source through the user configuration or a knowledge system, which can aid the process in determining which methods/components to use in calculating the trajectory given known information about a flight. All of this information is maintained in a trajectory object (not shown in FIG. 1 ).
  • the flight trajectory predictor 18 adds pseudo-waypoints that are not included in the flight plan/route, if indicated to do so by a user configuration or by the required accuracy level.
  • Pseudo-waypoints are points in the trajectory which are not explicitly part of the actual route, but identify where environmental events or flight maneuvers occur, such as speed, altitude, or heading changes.
  • Pseudo-waypoints are also used where constraints must be met, such as a speed or an altitude constraint. Pseudo-waypoints may also come in pairs for the start and end of a transition, as there must be a gradual change for the maneuver planned.
  • the flight trajectory predictor 18 uses the same pseudo-waypoints in its trajectory as the source's flight plan system uses; however the flight trajectory predictor 18 may introduce more pseudo-waypoints not included in the source's trajectory prediction to improve predicted trajectory accuracy. Some examples of reasons additional pseudo-waypoints may be included by the flight trajectory predictor 18 are environmental conditions, air traffic, temporary flight rules, flight conventions, standard flight practices, or user configuration declarations.
  • the flight trajectory predictor 18 adds environmental data and other metadata for each waypoint and pseudo-waypoint in the trajectory object.
  • each waypoint and pseudo-waypoint in the trajectory object constructed by the flight trajectory predictor would have an associated position location (latitude, longitude), altitude, phase of flight, estimated time of arrival to the flight destination, fuel remaining, environmental conditions, and metadata used for calculating trajectory data (segment distances, speeds, ETAs at waypoints, etc.).
  • the trajectory predictions are recalculated. This is a continual iterative process. It is an iterative process because after the environmental data is applied; the trajectory will shift accordingly and new environmental points may have been chosen.
  • the trajectory prediction is at its highest refinement for the given information. Again, this process can be configured to be either dynamic or static.
  • the predicted trajectory(s) 22 is the output of the flight trajectory predictor 18, and can be used as the basis for other calculations, for system or flight status checking or environmental uplink messaging, as a few examples.
  • a system and method for uplinking environmental messages is disclosed, for example, in U.S. Patent Application Ser. No. 13/250241 entitled "Systems and Methods for Processing Flight Information". Further details regarding the system and method of U.S. Patent Application Ser. No. 13/250241 are provided in a self-contained section at the end of this disclosure.
  • the predicted trajectory is stored in the flight object.
  • the flight object 24 comprises a flight path or route derived after decoding and translation of a set of flight information by the flight information message manager and/or the flight plan/route processor.
  • the flight object 24 may also comprise the aircraft type, aircraft state data, the source of the information and metadata.
  • the flight object 24 may further comprise an incomplete flight trajectory.
  • the flight trajectory predictor 18 can adjust its process based on a user configuration 26, such as setting the trajectory prediction process to include or exclude certain components (components for flight information decoding and translation are examples, as are components specific to calculation methods), past flight histories, or available data.
  • the trajectory object manager 28 can create a missing elements request 44.
  • This request may include a request for flight information different than currently available or a request for more recent flight information than the current set.
  • This request 44 can be output to a processor, system log, or flight messaging source.
  • the trajectory object is output to the trajectory predictions processor 34 and is also saved in the embedded knowledge system 30.
  • Trajectory object manager function status options are generated from knowledge system 30 and provide, for example, trajectory log modeling, function health "self-situational awareness," and mechanisms to allow for detection of non-normal and abnormal trajectory generation with alert feedback (i.e., status/alerts message 46) outside of the flight trajectory predictor 18, which triggers reprocess (or modified reprocess) opportunities either in real-time (self-healing) or for post-flight analyses.
  • the status/alerts message 46 could also be the result of a combination of security/health features providing the input to and triggers for process protection, attack detection, and restoration of options which can satisfy information assurance mandates.
  • the trajectory object 32 which the trajectory object manager 28 creates or modifies contains all the trajectory elements obtainable using the available flight information.
  • the trajectory object 32 is passed to the trajectory predictions processor 34, which uses the information in that trajectory object to compute the metadata needed to create (i.e., calculate) a complete trajectory (operation 38) and apply environmental data (operation 36) to produce a predicted trajectory 22 for the particular flight.
  • the trajectory predictions processor 34 also calculates the levels of confidence and accuracy of the predicted trajectory (operation 42).
  • the trajectory predictions processor 34 takes a trajectory object 32 and calculates the metadata for all the trajectory points contained in it.
  • Metadata can include information that is associated with the trajectory which the trajectory object manager 28 does not extract, calculate, or derive. Examples of metadata for a trajectory include the segment distances and headings, altitudes, ETAs, and fuel quantities for waypoints and pseudo-waypoints.
  • the specific metadata to be included (calculated or not) is determined by the user configuration 26. Some points may have already been calculated or received metadata (within the trajectory object manager 28), which may be used instead of recalculating their values, but for points without metadata, or those which have been modified, the trajectory predictions processor 34 performs a series of calculations to complete the trajectory prediction.
  • the trajectory object holds a complete trajectory which resembles that of the source of flight information, and the trajectory predictions processor 34 is able now to apply environmental data along the trajectory (operation 36).
  • the environmental conditions for the points in the predicted trajectory can be retrieved from the environmental database 20.
  • the applied environmental conditions affect the performance of the aircraft in flight, especially the speed economy selection of the aircraft and position of pseudo-waypoints. Since the pseudo-waypoints are not fixed in space, their locations may need to be adjusted after the application of environmental data, as well as other flight elements, including but not limited to fuel quantities, altitudes, and ETAs for each of the trajectory waypoints.
  • FIG. 2 shows how the trajectory predictions processor 34 first takes in a trajectory object 32 and then calculates the metadata for it, creating a complete trajectory (operation 38).
  • the complete trajectory is needed for the processor to identify what environmental data to pull from the environmental database 20.
  • the trajectory must be recalculated (operation 38) to update its derived pseudo-waypoints, and also recalculate the metadata which would be affected by the changes.
  • the recalculations of the trajectory prediction with reapplied environmental conditions are continued until a determination (operation 40) is made that the predicted trajectory does not require any more additional application of environmental conditions.
  • the trajectory predictions processor 34 calculates a confidence level and accuracy level for the predicted trajectory based on the quality of information extracted, calculated, and derived (operation 42). These levels may be evaluated for separate sections of the trajectory or for the predicted trajectory as a whole.
  • the level of predicted accuracy is based on the number of and sources of the specific information, time, distance or flight phase. For example, if flight information has to be derived to calculate a trajectory, because the aircraft has not directly transmitted such information, the level of accuracy of the predicted trajectory may be reduced. This reduction in accuracy may influence the "confidence".
  • a reduction in confidence may be used for triggers of other applications to perhaps increase aircraft messaging or request additional information directly.
  • the flight trajectory predictor 18 has a predicted trajectory 22 with associated confidence and accuracy ratings which it may output, in whole or in part, for use by follow-on applications, such as a message constructor (not shown in FIG. 2 ).
  • the predicted trajectory 22 with associated confidence and accuracy levels is also stored in the knowledge system 30.
  • FIG. 3 An example of a trajectory object manager process is shown in FIG. 3 , which consists of FIGS. 3A and 3B .
  • system security interface options are identified for input validity (operation 50) and access authentication (operation 52), as are required for any networked system, and would be part of a federated/distributed security scheme for all functions/subsystems/devices of the system employing the flight trajectory predictor. If the input is invalid or access is not authorized, the trajectory object manager selects a rejection option.
  • the trajectory object manager 28 may receive information about the source of the flight Information and the flight phase; however, if not provided, the trajectory object manager 28 determines the source and flight phase (operation 56 in FIG. 3A ) from the information that is available in the flight object 24. For example, assume that the trajectory object manager 28 receives a flight object 24 from the flight plan/route processor (item 14 in FIG. 1 ) which contains an aircraft's flight plan, current state data, and tail ID. The source information and aircraft type can be determined from the tail ID according to the user configuration 26. The flight phase can be determined using the state data with the flight plan, comparing the current altitude with the flight plan's cruise altitude and flight schedule, if all are available.
  • the trajectory object manager 28 also identifies the necessary minimum process components needed to build a trajectory prediction that resembles that of the source, desired output trajectory, or the process components to be included or deleted according to user configuration instructions.
  • the user configuration 26 may contain specific rules, conventions, or practices to which the trajectory must adhere.
  • the user configuration 26 may contain a default trajectory format for new or unfamiliar sources; or it may follow rules to infer trajectory types based on flight information content, such as determining whether the source is an aircraft or a ground system.
  • the knowledge system 30 (see FIG. 3B ) records the trajectory object manager's results for future reference and subsequent use for improving trajectory predictions for other flights.
  • the trajectory object manager determines if there is a defined trajectory type for that data (operation 58 in FIG. 3A ). If the trajectory type is already defined for the source and flight phase provided, then that type will be used (operation 60 in FIG. 3B ) in conjunction with any user configuration settings 66 applied. If there is no defined trajectory type, the trajectory object manager identifies trajectory types that are possible to create with the available information (operation 62 in FIG. 3A ).
  • the knowledge system 30 may use heuristics, correlation, learning algorithms, accumulated evidence, existing flight object information, state data/flight phase, and other information to discover and select criteria for possible trajectory types.
  • the knowledge system 30 is capable of updating itself with new data, after that data has been tested for validity and authentication. From the list, a trajectory type 72 is chosen (operation 64 in FIG. 3B ) which also meets the user configurations, and the required accuracy and confidence levels (items 68 and 70 in FIG. 3B ) for the trajectory type 72 are recorded. Status/alerts are associated with the trajectory object 32 or predicted trajectory 22. The trajectory type 72 is then sent with the flight information to a trajectory object processor 74, which creates or updates a trajectory object 32 for the particular flight.
  • FIG. 4 The process for calculating a trajectory with the known information in accordance with one embodiment is shown in FIG. 4 , which consists of FIGS. 4A and 4B .
  • the trajectory object processor 74 determines whether a trajectory can be calculated from the available information (operation 76). This is determined with reference to what specific level of information a user has requested. If all the necessary data for a trajectory is included in the flight object 24, then a trajectory object 32 (shown in FIG. 4B ) is created immediately and output to the trajectory predictions processor (item 34 in FIG. 2 ). If in operation 76 the trajectory object processor 74 determines there is insufficient data to create a trajectory of the specified trajectory type, elements of the trajectory may possibly be derived.
  • the trajectory object processor 74 determines whether derivations have been done previously (operation 78 in FIG. 4A ). If not, then a derivation method is selected. There are many possible derivation methods for various trajectory elements; some use different sets of flight information, or larger sets of information, and some can be more accurate than others. Based on the available flight information, the required confidence and accuracy levels, and the trajectory type needed, the trajectory object processor 74 determines (operation 90 in FIG. 4B ) which methods to use in order to derive the needed information for the trajectory object, and at the needed level of confidence and/or accuracy. The trajectory object processor can adjust its calculations depending on the information that is available in a flight, as there can be multiple ways to calculate or derive trajectory elements.
  • Trajectory elements are derived using a combination of conversion formulas, equipage, airspace and aircraft constraints, the knowledge system, and rules of best practice with information gained from current and/or past flight information messages. For cases where more pertinent information is known for the flight, a more accurate derivation may be possible.
  • Operation 90 uses one or more of a knowledge system, extraction, calculation, and derivation to ascertain the trajectory elements that result in a predicted trajectory which best meets the required confidence and accuracy levels given the known information. When data is missing for the most preferred derivation method to be used for a necessary trajectory element, then an alternate method must be used to generate a prediction for that element. While FIG. 4B shows only two possible options for computing the trajectory elements, there may be many options when there are multiple elements with multiple methods of prediction.
  • a third example would be using a system of linear equations to determine the position of specific waypoints or all pseudo-waypoints based on previous flight histories. Another option employed by trajectory object processor 74 is to use displacement vectors to determine the needed elements. Once derivations have been completed and new information has been obtained, the process returns to operation 76 (see FIG. 4A ) which determines whether a trajectory can be calculated with the available information.
  • operation 78 is repeated. This time, because a derivation has been done previously, the process moves to operation 80, which determines whether trajectory retrieval has been done previously. If trajectory retrieval has not been done previously, the process can retrieve other trajectory objects from the knowledge system (operation 82), such as previous flight histories for that particular aircraft, and infer trajectory elements from current versus previous flight performance (operation 84) or from aircraft operating in proximity.
  • the flights used to generate trajectory objects by the knowledge system can be selected from flights flown in similar conditions; examples may include flights flown within a time horizon, or in similar environmental conditions, or in same time period, or those with the same flight path segments.
  • trajectory elements obtained from the hysteresis analysis do not directly contribute to the information needed to calculate a trajectory object, they may allow new information to be derived. Therefore if a trajectory is still unable to be calculated with the accumulated information, the process determines whether more information can be extracted or derived (operation 86 in FIG. 4B ). If the determination is affirmative, another iteration of derivations can be completed to derive new trajectory elements.
  • the trajectory object processor 74 (see FIG. 4 ) tries to obtain the missing information by deriving, calculating, extracting and requesting. If it cannot obtain the missing information, the trajectory predictions processor 34 (see FIG. 2 ) will still output a predicted flight trajectory 22 because the minimum data set was available, but the accuracy level and confidence level calculated by the trajectory predictions processor 34 would show a lower level than what was requested, and the user would then know the requirement had not been met.
  • the output is always a trajectory prediction, unless the minimum information necessary is not available.
  • the desired output is basic trajectory prediction from the available flight information and/or a trajectory prediction equal to the requested level of accuracy and/or confidence. This means that multiple outputs for various users at varying levels of confidence and accuracy can be generated.
  • FIG. 5 An illustration of an idealized trajectory profile is shown in FIG. 5 .
  • Two pseudo-waypoints that are necessary to define the vertical profile of the trajectory are the top of climb (TOC) and top of descent (TOD).
  • TOC top of climb
  • TOD top of descent
  • a list of basic trajectory elements which may be needed to generate a baseline trajectory with top of climb and top of descent as seen in FIG. 5 would be the Origin, Destination, Cruise Altitude, Climb Speed, Cruise Speed, and Descent Speed. In some instances these could all be reported in a flight plan; however, often some or all of these elements must be calculated or derived using other available information.
  • the content of the flight information can vary with different data sources, so the trajectory object manager must be able to adjust its method for obtaining trajectory elements based on the available information.
  • elements may need to be derived using information from a combination of different sets of flight information messages, and so the ability to use current flight information with stored past flight information history is required.
  • more details and pseudo-waypoints may need to be calculated, requiring different sets of trajectory elements to be known. Examples of these could be pseudo-waypoints that define transitions in the trajectory for speed or altitude constraints that must be met in the climb or descent phases or a step climb or step down during the enroute phase.
  • a flight information message is received with the status that the aircraft is a specified time away from its top of descent along with the timestamp indicating when that message was sent.
  • the method/process uses the current speed of the aircraft, which has been derived from flight information (segment speeds, or an alternate combination of trajectory predictions processor functions), and the aircraft position, extracted from flight information to locate the predicted top of descent (TOD in FIG. 5 ) position at the specified time in the future.
  • Another advantageous embodiment further improves the accuracy of the trajectory prediction by improving the derivation technique itself. For instance, there is error in the derivation of the speed calculations currently used which is due in part to the timestamp in the message received. To reduce error in the top of descent calculations using the derived speed, the speed used must be calculated in the same way as the source's reported speed. This means adjusting the speed to incorporate environmental conditions used by the source. As the flight information message may be routed through multiple relays, the timestamp of the message may be the time it was sent from one of the relays, not the source. So the flight information should contain a separate element indicating the time when the message was sent independent of the timestamp, in order to identify the aircraft position and predict the time/distance to top of descent.
  • trajectory prediction is required before flight information detailing a specified time to top of descent has been received (e.g., before departure)
  • an alternative method must be used to estimate the top of descent and then refine it later.
  • One approach to these calculations requires a descent path angle or projected rate of descents, which is derived from the aircraft's cruise speed, descent speed and altitude and descent speed constraints into its destination. Calculations can then extrapolate backwards starting from the last waypoint or pseudo-waypoint with a computed or specified altitude (near the destination). Waypoint altitude calculations are continued until the cruise altitude is reached, signifying the top of descent point.
  • multiple methods must be available for trajectory calculations, depending on the known flight/trajectory information. The example becomes more complex with an aircraft type that provides minimal flight information.
  • Embodiments employing hysteresis of past flight data in trajectory predictions could be done in two ways.
  • One method is to include the additional data in the derivations of the predicted trajectory. This could be done by building a system of equations using all of the available data and calculating a resulting trajectory prediction, such as a pseudo-waypoint location or a speed.
  • Another method is to augment the predicted trajectory already derived with interpolation or projections of the aircraft state onto past flight data.
  • An example of how a final predicted trajectory could be generated from these is through a weighted combination of the predicted trajectory and a projection which fuses the data sets weighted with respect to their estimated accuracy. So, early in the flight the hysteresis data would be relied on more, but closer to the descent the derived values of the predicted trajectory would be weighted more.
  • the trajectory prediction generated from these methods and system is completed without the use of any specific aircraft performance database, using the current flight information received and an independent environmental database.
  • This trajectory prediction system also can adapt its output dependent on a static user configuration or dynamically based on the available information or past known flight information.
  • This trajectory prediction system also produces a higher accuracy solution due in part to utilizing in situ and forecasted environment data and the techniques used to derive unknown flight data elements.
  • the output solution can also include an identifier distinguishing the level of accuracy and/or confidence of the trajectory predictions.
  • Aircraft predictions 124 may include a number of flight plans and associated predictions for the trajectory and weather of an aircraft based on each of the number of trajectories associated with respective flight plans. Aircraft predictions 124 includes aircraft state data predictions associated with a number of points in time based on predicted weather, flight plan, weight of aircraft, aircraft configuration, and/or any other suitable information. Aircraft predictions 124 may include a number of trajectories 126. These flight trajectories are calculated from flight path information provided from either an aircraft or a ground source using flight path restrictions, such as altitude, speed, and/or time, and planned flight events, such as gear extension.
  • Selection module 132 dynamically selects weather bands based on selection criteria associated with request 110 or push 114.
  • the selected weather bands 134 may include a number of altitude weather bands ranked in order of importance and/or impact to the trajectory being considered from request 110.
  • the selected weather bands 134 are then sent to output process 136, which determines how and where selected weather bands 134 should be sent.
  • Output process 136 determines the recipient of selected weather bands 134 and formats them in dependence on the requirements of the recipient.
  • aircraft 102 may be configured to receive standard aircraft communications addressing and reporting system (ACARS) messaging.
  • ACARS standard aircraft communications addressing and reporting system
  • Selected weather bands 134 may be sent to ground station 106, aircraft 102, or other recipients, such as an air navigation service provider.
  • selected weather bands 134 may be formatted for transmission and sent as a weather uplink 138 to aircraft 102.
  • selected weather bands 134 may be formatted for transmission and sent as weather message 140 to operation center 106.
  • the flight trajectory predictor 164 (which is also a processor) retrieves the sequence of waypoints making up the flight plan/route from the flight object and then calculates an updated predicted flight trajectory based on the flight plan/route, the original flight trajectory, the aircraft type and how it is equipped, and current and/or forecast environmental conditions.
  • a system and method for generating a flight trajectory prediction is described above with reference to FIGS. 1-5 .
  • the flight trajectory predictor 164 may incorporate or communicate with a dynamic weather band processor of the type previously described with reference to FIG. 6 . That dynamic weather band processor retrieves current and forecasted weather information associated with the original flight trajectory from a weather database 166. The flight trajectory predictor 164 also identifies aircraft state data and aircraft-observed weather information for the identified aircraft currently flying in accordance with the received flight plan/route. Next, the flight trajectory predictor 164 recalculates the original flight trajectory using the current and forecasted weather information and the aircraft-observed weather information to create an updated predicted flight trajectory with selected weather bands in the flight object.
  • That dynamic weather band processor retrieves current and forecasted weather information associated with the original flight trajectory from a weather database 166. The flight trajectory predictor 164 also identifies aircraft state data and aircraft-observed weather information for the identified aircraft currently flying in accordance with the received flight plan/route. Next, the flight trajectory predictor 164 recalculates the original flight trajectory using the current and forecasted weather information and the aircraft-observed weather
  • the flight trajectory predictor 164 also causes the dynamic weather band processor (not shown in FIG. 8 ) to select current and forecasted weather information associated with the updated predicted flight trajectory from weather database 166 and then send the selected information to a message constructor 168, as indicated by the dashed arrow in FIG. 8 . More specifically, environmental information, an aircraft identifier, security information and the positions corresponding to the environmental information go directly from the weather database 166 to the message constructor 168 for inclusion in a environmental information transmission.
  • flight trajectory predictor 164 can add and/or delete waypoints to the flight plan/route that is stored in the flight object, thereby creating a updated flight plan/route.
  • the flight trajectory predictor 164 then sends a message to the flight plan/route processor 160 informing the latter that the updated predicted flight trajectory and new flight plan/route are available for use.
  • the flight plan/route processor 160 retrieves the list of waypoints in the flight object representing the updated flight plan/route and uses that processed list of waypoints to construct a payload for inclusion in a flight plan/route message for transmission.
  • the flight trajectory predictor 164 can send the flight object to the flight plan/route processor 160.
  • the message constructor 168 can construct a flight plan/route message with or without a weather update message.
  • the message constructor 168 first constructs a message header and then constructs a message comprising that header, the flight plan/route payload received from the flight plan/route processor 160 and a cyclic redundancy check.
  • the message is constructed in a message format specified by the message user in accordance with a dynamically settable user configuration stored in a user preferences database.
  • This user configuration specifies which functions or processes are running in parallel, and also defines connections to receive and transmit the data from the processors or databases shown in FIG. 8 .
  • the user configuration also specifies the behavior of the application.
  • the message constructor 168 takes selected weather information from the weather database 166 and constructs an outgoing message for the end user(s) in a specified user message format. As part of the message construction process, the message constructor 168 encodes the weather information received from the weather database 166. In the case of a weather update message uplinked to an aircraft, the weather update is reviewed and accepted by the flight crew and then autoloaded into the flight management computer.
  • the flight plan/route processor 160 After a new trajectory has been calculated by the trajectory predictor 164, the flight plan/route processor 160 also performs the functions of translating and encoding an updated list of waypoints to construct a payload in a format suitable for inclusion in an updated flight plan/route message.
  • the flight plan/route processor 160 utilizes the same methodology for processing an incoming aircraft message and an incoming ground message. However, while the methodology is the same, the conditions applied during the respective processes vary. The conditions may be modified through a dynamically settable user configuration or hard-coded into the logic. The general principle is that in whatever user message format the flight plan/route data is received, it needs to be decoded and translated before it can be used to determine an updated flight plan/route with or without environmental information.
  • an incoming message is decoded by decoder 170 of the flight plan/route processor 160.
  • the decoding scheme is a function of the user configuration and user message format.
  • the decoder 170 parses the message by separating the flight plan/route from other parts of the message. If the message was encrypted, then the decoder 170 will execute a second decoding stage in which the encrypted flight plan/route is decrypted. In the next decoding stage, the decoder 170 pulls (i.e., parses) data out of the flight plan/route and maps that data into applicable attribute fields of the flight object.
  • the decoder 170 converts user defined points such as latitude/longitude, floating waypoints, place bearing distance, or along track waypoints, intersections and airways and flight procedures into associated waypoints by internal computations or by reference to a navigation database (item 162 in FIG. 8 ), which stores navigation information pertaining to waypoints, airports, airways, and procedures and customer information. Information retrieved from the navigation database is again stored in the flight object.
  • a navigation database (item 162 in FIG. 8 ), which stores navigation information pertaining to waypoints, airports, airways, and procedures and customer information. Information retrieved from the navigation database is again stored in the flight object.
  • the navigation information of greatest complexity is airways and flight procedures (e.g., departure and arrival procedures).
  • the decoder 170 uses that information to do a look up in the navigation database to query for additional data. For example, assume that the flight plan/route message identifies a standard instrument departure (SID) procedure, which consists of a number of waypoints or fixes and a climb profile.
  • SID standard instrument departure
  • the decoder 170 uses the identified SID to query information in the navigation database.
  • the navigation database query would return a listing of waypoints and possibly other associated data. All of the returned waypoints would be stored in the flight object.
  • An incoming message translator 172 of the flight plan/route processor 160 then continues the process by translating the waypoints stored in the flight object into a list of waypoints representing a proper flight plan/route. As part of this process, the incoming message translator 172 determines which of these waypoints are applicable and in which order. The correct ordering of the waypoints is determined from the content of the message and adaptive logic guidelines. For example, transition types indicating one method of movement from one point to the next can be derived from the message content.
  • a logic guideline may include, but is not limited to, the required security, FMC operations and limitations, aircraft state, current or predicted flight information, the aircraft type and/or the airline operating the aircraft.
  • flight trajectory predictor 164 can add, reorder or delete waypoints to the flight plan/route that is stored in the flight object, thereby creating a new flight plan/route.
  • the flight trajectory predictor 164 then sends a message to an outgoing message translator 174 of the flight plan/route processor 160 informing the outgoing message translator that the updated predicted flight trajectory and new flight plan/route are available for use.
  • the outgoing message translator 174 combines the updated list of waypoints in the flight object to form a new flight plan/route by referring again to the navigation database (not shown in FIG. 9 ).
  • the outgoing message translator 174 translates sequences of waypoints into airways and flight procedures that are added to the flight object.
  • the outgoing message translator 174 takes into account the aircraft type, aircraft state data and the current location of the aircraft. For example, an identifier may identify multiple waypoints at different locations, and the outgoing message translator 174 will determine which of those waypoints was intended based on the present location of the aircraft and the flight intent trajectory information.
  • the translated waypoint fields in the flight object are then encoded by an outgoing message encoder 176 of the flight plan/route processor 160. More specifically, the encoder 176 parses the translated list of waypoints in the flight object and then encodes the parsed data to construct a payload for inclusion in a flight plan/route message to be uplinked. More specifically, the encoder 76 puts the parsed list of waypoints into the order required by a user-specified flight plan/route message format.
  • the outgoing message encoder 176 will also identify the transition types (e.g., direct to or via). The transition type is crucial to the definition of the encoded outgoing message.
  • the encoder 176 can either set a flag or send a message to message constructor 168 indicating that the new flight plan/route payload is ready for transmission (i.e., uplinking), or send updated flight plan/route payload directly to message constructor 168.
  • the message constructor 168 then assembles all of the message components and formats the message for the end user.
  • the aircraft identifier and airline identifier in the flight information received by the flight plan/route processor 160 dictate what incoming message decoding/translating scheme should be used or the scheme can be declared in the user format.
  • An instruction regarding what translating/encoding scheme should be used is sent to the outgoing message translator/encoder, as indicated by the arrow connecting blocks 172 and 174 in FIG. 9 .
  • the outgoing message translating/encoding scheme applied by the flight plan/route processor 160 will be a function of the applied decoding/translating scheme. These schemes take the form of subroutines retrieved from processor memory and executed by the flight plan/route processor 160.
  • an aircraft flight message is received, such as: FPN/RI:DA:KSEA:AA:KLAX:R:04I:D:SID12:F:ABC.J12..WPT1.V140..W PT9:A:STAR2.TRANS(180).
  • this specific exemplary flight message The meaning and ordering of particular symbols and characters appearing in this specific exemplary flight message are dictated by the applicable user specifications and will be different for other flight messages constructed in accordance with different user specifications. Therefore the detailed discussion of this specific exemplary message is not intended to limit the scope of the system, in which the flight plan/route processor can be programmed to handle flight messages in different formats.
  • a single period means Via Transition and a double period means Direct To.
  • the route format of this exemplary message is not useable for trajectory and weather calculations. It must be decoded and translated.
  • the conditions applied during decode and translation of an incoming message vary per aircraft type, the aircraft state data which was derived from the flight information, or associated data derived from the route data itself (e.g., leg types).
  • the above incoming aircraft message when decoded would look similar to the following: Route Seattle-Tacoma Airport to Los Angeles airport via runway 04 to standard instrument departure SID12 to en route waypoint ABC then via jet airway J12 to WPT1 then via victor airway V140 to WPT9 then TRANS transition to the standard terminal arrival route STAR2 to runway 18.
  • the route must be decoded and translated into a waypoint to waypoint type of route with the associated data (e.g., known leg types, altitude constraints, etc.). Therefore, an additional operation is required in the decoding operation due to the specification of the route consisting of more than waypoint to waypoint routing (i.e., the route contains airways, a STAR, etc.).
  • the SID12 would be expanded to WPTA, WPTB, WPTC, ABC and WPTY.
  • the jet airway J12 would expand to ABC, DEF, GHI, and WPT1.
  • the victor airway V140 would consist of WPT1, WPT7, WPT8, and WPT9.
  • the transition TRANS would consist of only the fix TRANS.
  • the STAR2 terminal arrival route identifies the arrival route into KLAX, which consists of waypoints WPT15, WPT16, WPT17, WPT18 and WPT22.
  • the final decode of the aircraft message would look like the following list: KSEA RWY04, WPTA, WPTB, WPTC, ABC, WPTY, ABC, ABC, DEF, GHI, WPT1, WPT1, WPT1, WPT7, WPT8, WPT9, WPT9, TRANS, WPT15, WPT16, WPT17, WPT18, WPT22, and KLAX RWY18.
  • the decoded message is then translated. Translation may include the deletion of duplicate or extraneous waypoints or waypoints that have been passed by the aircraft since the time when the flight plan/route message was received. At the completion of this operation, the incoming flight plan/route is processed and the list of waypoints may be used for trajectory, weather or other processing.
  • the decoded and translated flight plan/route might look like what follows, again dependent on the conditions, yet representative of the actual flight: KSEA RWY04, WPTA, WPTB, WPTC, ABC, DEF, GHI, WPT1, WPT7, WPT8, WPT9, TRANS, WPT15, WPT16, WPT17, WPT18, WPT22, and KLAX RWY18.
  • the next operation is to translate and encode the trajectory or updated flight plan/route and/or the selected weather bands into an outgoing message for transmission to a user or users.
  • the process of translating the flight plan/route is determined by a user configuration (180 in FIG. 9 ) or hard-coded logic and could involve correlating the list of waypoints to standard instrument departures, airways, standard terminal arrival routes, approach procedures, etc. In another example with a different configuration, the translator may simply output a list of waypoints.
  • the outgoing encoder constructs a payload for a flight plan/route uplink message in accordance with the same encoding used to encode the original received message.

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US13/250,352 US9098997B2 (en) 2011-09-30 2011-09-30 Flight trajectory prediction with application of environmental conditions
US13/250,241 US10102753B2 (en) 2011-09-30 2011-09-30 Systems and methods for processing flight information

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